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WCAD 4-1: Group I Preview
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Austin and Amit break down an intriguing Group I, headlined by favorites France who are joined by potential dark horses Norway and Senegal and Iraq, the team with more matches played in qualifying than anyone else.
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Transcript
World Cup Group Previews
00:00:01
Speaker
It's only fitting that we start our World Cup group previews with a team that many consider to be the prohibitive favorites for this World Cup in France. One of the most intriguing teams in the World Cup in Norway.
00:00:14
Speaker
Podcast favorites, Senegal. And fittingly for the World Cup After Dark podcast, the team that played the most World Cup qualification matches in i Iraq.
Host Introductions
00:00:23
Speaker
I am Austin Miller. He is Amit Malik.
00:00:25
Speaker
Amit, our alphabet soup of World Cup groups has given us an eye
The 'Group of Death' Discussion
00:00:30
Speaker
today. And that gives us a very, very intriguing group that maybe in past World Cups would certainly have been considered a group of death.
00:00:38
Speaker
I'm not sure that still exists in this World Cup, but this is a great, great group. I'm really glad we we started with this one. I think France is one of the most exciting teams to talk about.
00:00:49
Speaker
ah We love Norway and Senegal interact, as you said. So I think with the three teams advancing out of two thirds of the groups, right? It's hard to get that qualifier, but three teams this good. I mean, there's a chance one of them could miss. I don't know. I, maybe you just throw out group or death and just say, this is a really stinking tough group, right? Like what else do you need to qualify it with?
00:01:12
Speaker
Yeah. And I think, look, we like, I think, every group. Like, there are cases to be made for every group at this World Cup. We're probably going to say, oh this is a really intriguing group about all 12 of the groups. But we don't need to sell this one very much. There are some groups that you and I might have might have to do a sell job, right? Like, ah, Austria, Jordan, and Algeria in a group. We might have to sell that.
00:01:32
Speaker
There's not a bunch of selling that needs to be done here. Correct. And even if the group itself isn't like deathly and all the three teams make it, I think what what could speak to the talent is you can make a case for all three of these teams being quarter finalists. You might expect to see them all in the round of 16. Probably won't, but you might. So that's just kind of the the level.
00:01:55
Speaker
So let's talk about group of death. And and I think this is, look, it's ah it's a media narrative that we love to throw out in every World Cup, the the hardest group. When only two teams go through a group of death, I think is a lot easier to quantify because you look at France, Senegal, and Norway, and you say only two of these teams are going through, one of them is going out. That's simple mathematics. That's not the case here, as you said, Amit, as we've talked about and will talk about. Eight of the 12 third-place teams going through, and with the three-point and positive goal differential line being right around where we think those third-place teams will go through, three good teams plus one, at least on paper, overmatched team does not suggest that one of those three teams will be going out at this stage.
00:02:42
Speaker
Right. I think for the the modern or this format's group of death, the fourth team's got to have a little more juice, even if the three teams aren't quite as good. So yeah, this is an older school group of death. But as as as you and I are both thinking, all it takes is is one Iraq result, and we're yeah then we're then we're in some chaos territory.
France's World Cup Aspirations
00:03:05
Speaker
Right, and that's the thing is one unexpected result throws everything into chaos, wherever that comes from. And look, if... If Senegal and Norway draw, then you know that puts the pressure on. There's a lot of things that can make this group more dramatic. But even if it's not, even if it does kind of go to script, these are still four tremendously intriguing teams in this group. So before we get into those four teams, a minute let's talk about the draw. And not necessarily just for these four teams, but just to kind of keep this in the back pocket. The winner of this group...
00:03:37
Speaker
will play a third place team in the round of 32 in New Jersey. And then in the round of 16, they will play the winner of Group E, which is the Germany group or a third place team. And then the Group F winner, which is the Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia group, is also in the quadrant for the group winner as we look towards the quarterfinals.
00:03:56
Speaker
The runner up of this group will play the runner up of that average. aforementioned group involving Germany in Arlington. And then Group C winner, which is Brazil, or Group F runner-up, which is the Netherlands group in the round of 16.
00:04:08
Speaker
ah The winner of Group A, which is the Mexico group, and also the Group L winner, which could be England, is also in the quadrant. Nothing stands out in that draw to me as particularly more difficult. I don't think there's any real risk for a team like France who we are considering as the favorites.
00:04:24
Speaker
There are groups that we will talk about. The difference between finishing as group winner and runner up will be big. i don't think that's necessarily the case here.
00:04:33
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's something to the strength of Germany not being the the the scariest team. But... Yeah, i I think if you're second in this group, particularly if you're Norway or Senegal, that's not going to kill you. It's it's all these knockout games, um unless you're a third place team, or are tough are tough, but not like, you know, you really have to avoid them.
00:04:56
Speaker
Yeah. and And the third place, it's really hard to invent. There over 900 combinations of third place teams that can go through. It's hard to look at, oh, which of those third place teams could be more difficult. Because again, we're talking about this group where a potential third place team coming out of this group is probably a team you'd want to avoid in the round of 32. That might not be the case from other groups, but it's just so hard to look forward and figure out exactly who's going to go where. Yeah. Look, if you finish runner up and it's, it's Ivory Coast or Ecuador sitting across from in the round 32, that's not a super comfortable matchup. But again, that's just what all those knockout mound ratch knockout round matches are going to be. All right. I mean, it's France.
00:05:37
Speaker
There's 17 World Cups, four-time winners, champions in 2018, runners up in 2022. They are out for blood. And for many, they are the prohibited favorites.
00:05:51
Speaker
I think they have to be. Just the collection of talent is kind of the best here, and it's not close. And something we've talked about for a long time is that the you know the B France team or the C France team would be just as good. But this is the A France team, and it's filthy.
00:06:07
Speaker
And they've just made two World Cup finals in a row. And it's the same manager. It's the same core of players led by Kylian Mbappe, who for many times in the last five, six years has held the title of best player in the world.
00:06:25
Speaker
And we saw at the last World Cup and the one before that, that Didier Deschamps World Cup soccer is very, very hard to beat. It takes Lionel Messi and friends playing the vibesiest game of their lifetime and still getting crazy luck in extra time to avoid a few golden chances and a penalty shootout.
00:06:49
Speaker
So it just is really hard to beat this team. Now it's international soccer and knockarounds. No one's invincible. I think in Euro 24, Spain played a great game and Spain is very good. And they're and another one of the favorites here.
00:07:04
Speaker
That could be France's semifinal beat them to one. So it's not that they're immune to variants. they They aren't, but, this is a team you would expect would walk into the quarterfinals with ease. And then from there, when it gets to, you know, grimy end of tournament stuff, as we love to to see and talk about, it's what we live for.
00:07:25
Speaker
There's no one better at playing that game than France. um So I think the expectations for them has to be title or bust. And You know, I think from a more neutral expectation, I think it's get to the semifinals, play your best game twice.
00:07:42
Speaker
Hopefully enough times you play that scenario, you win. You're not going to win 100, but you like those chances. But I think for them, 100%, you have to win when you've got this a coalition of talent.
00:07:53
Speaker
Their qualification campaign amid nothing to write whole about. Five wins, one draw, no losses from a group involving Ukraine, Iceland, and Azerbaijan. At no point were we really even considering France in the story of World Cup qualification. You mentioned the expectations. It's title or bust for France. But as we've seen with France, bust is on the table. And it has been in the past with this team at past World Cups.
00:08:17
Speaker
It's what happened in 2022. They didn't bust spectacularly, but they fell short of their ultimate goal. But if we are talking about a World Cup in which a lot of the teams are trying to do more with less, right? That is the crux of what these big game managers want. They want to hurt you with committing the least amount of numbers forward as possible.
00:08:41
Speaker
There might not be a team better equipped to do that in this tournament than this France managed by this Didier Deschamps. a great way to put it. And we've seen them play that game before. And just by having Mbappe on the field, it opens up your style to kind of force the other team backwards. Because if they come up the field and play at all, try to press you or at all try to to contest the middle third.
00:09:08
Speaker
Boom, one ball. The fastest guy in the world is gone. or the fastest, best combo of finisher and speed is gone and you're in trouble. And they've had great midfielders and defenders behind him. They've they've had good players before. They've made two World Cup finals.
00:09:22
Speaker
This team is specifically almost... Even better because you've got to look at Ousmane Dembele, Ballon d'Or winner, having a great season at PSG, is a capable finisher, runner, dribbler, winger, can do it all. And then you've got to look at Michael Alisse, who's had a great season at Bayern Munich and has kind of turned into...
00:09:42
Speaker
the perfect third frontline piece as as a right winger that can also shoot, dribble, pass. That's problem. And then even to throw in all of it, you've kind of had Ryan Cherky, who was at Lyon, now at Manchester City, one of Pep Guardiola's shiny new toys, is like the perfect creative midfielder to like unlock those three players.
00:10:02
Speaker
So when you play France, right you have to back up. You have to kind of bunker and say... okay, we know Mbappe is a good transition player, but can you break us down and can we just grind you to like a 0-0 and try to get you somewhere? It doesn't work, but it's better than playing France Open, right?
00:10:18
Speaker
But now if you try to play France in a close game and close and try to say, break us down to low block, there's a Lise in Turkey. And then also you've got couple of other PSG ringers and Desiree Douay and Bradley Barcola.
00:10:32
Speaker
And it's it's ah it's a very, very, very bad math problem. So I think the level it's going to take to beat this France team is you've got to be able to defend some of the best wingers and creative players in the world while also hurting their back line which is just going to be a very, very tough level of team.
00:10:52
Speaker
And I think that's where if you're trying to find weaknesses, right, you know the midfield's good. You've got Chomeney, you've got maybe Adrian Rabiot is still a good player and Golokante is still good player, but next to Chomeney, they're good.
00:11:04
Speaker
Can you take advantage of Theo Hernandez at left back? Can you get that mistake from Upamecano that he he gives, you know, frequently in club football?
00:11:15
Speaker
But like, that's really about it. And can you even get those mistakes if they're just playing such a conservative line anyway? That's tough. And can you get those mistakes and then also limit your... like It's probably going to take more than a goal to beat France. like France probably aren't going out of this World Cup in a 1-0 game unless the situation is really dire.
00:11:37
Speaker
And there's always this possibility. so you mentioned it, right? maybe the four best attacking players to just say, we're just going to let those four guys go and leave our other six guys just hanging out behind to make sure you don't do anything the other way.
00:11:51
Speaker
And then at some point, if we need to, DeChamp will just kind of like put out his cigarette on the side and just flip up on the button to be like, oh, we're going to send another guy forward if he has to, but he probably won't even have to.
00:12:02
Speaker
Exactly. And that's what that's what makes them so dangerous is that he can kind of keep his his button closed. He could keep his his guns in his in his holster and just wait until he needs to. And that's the other thing in this World Cup. Right.
00:12:17
Speaker
It's a long slog. There's an extra match. It's hot. I mean, there are going to be some games indoors, but it's we know these World Cups get to be attritional by the end. They have depth, right? It's not just the attacking depth. You know, in top of Chomeni, Kamavinga, Rabiot, and Golokante could play.
00:12:36
Speaker
Zaire Emery is having a very good season at PSG. They've got extra outside backs. They've got extra center backs. So, like, they can rotate a little bit if they need to, or they can withstand an injury, right? They lost Hugo Eketike, the Liverpool striker who who was out for the whole thing. i think that's a a somewhat significant blow, but like when your your weakness here is we've lost our backup striker, like, oh no, we're going to have to play Randall Kolomawani who, you know, got us to World Cup final last time. Like, you're just spoiled for riches.
00:13:09
Speaker
So i I think this is, to me, the reason why they're the favorites... It's one part, the game model and the talent, but it's two parts, to the the depth and the ability to not tire themselves out through four or five games. Like, yeah, they're not going to be able to not try in the round of 32 or the round of 16, but they can win those games and still be fresh for the biggest games.
00:13:34
Speaker
That's what is the scariest thing. And they can withstand, as you said, in injury or an untimely suspension. there are the depth There are players, obviously, that France doesn't want to be without, but there are the depth players that can come in and cover a lot. So make me the case for the weaknesses if they exist, right? If France do find themselves in trouble at this World Cup, it probably won't come in this group. It might not even come in the round of 32 or the round of 16.
00:14:00
Speaker
But at some point, they might find themselves in trouble. If they do, why will it be? I think the, let's start with the ball. The first thing is there's one ball and there's a lot of good players. And and sometimes when you play a bunch of it, this is the 2011 Miami heat problem. When LeBron, Bosh and Wade got together, everyone said, there's one ball. Who's going to be the third banana? And that was Chris Bosh. Eventually it took him a year. It worked right out of Mbappe, Dembele and Alise, who is going to kind of compromise? And this is what, this is to me, just a fun question. I'm not sure this is going to sink them, but it it could because,
00:14:38
Speaker
Alise's got to play right wing. he that's what That's his role. He has to. Can someone play left wing? Is it Dembele and Mbappe gets to be the striker? Dembele's more of right winger striker. If it's Mbappe, is he going to complain? Is he going complain about not getting the ball? And is he going to defend?
00:14:57
Speaker
And I think this whole thing is this... it will the frontline defend for its fullbacks, specifically the wingers? Because if you're the striker, you can hang out the field. You don't have to press, you know, France doesn't have to press, but if you play a team that's good enough and you need some wingers to do some defensive work,
00:15:14
Speaker
Are they willing to do that? Now we've seen Mbappe in the international setting be on the whole rather selfless and engaged to the, to the project. So I don't think that's necessarily the, the issue, but we must talk about it.
00:15:29
Speaker
Yeah. There's currently a petition going around to remove Kylian Mbappe from Real Madrid. This thing is the most signed petition of all time. Millions of signatures. Yeah.
00:15:41
Speaker
it's a bit, right? Like it's, there's no way to describe it, but there is there something, and this is, this is the preview podcast. We're going to get this, this bit out of the way, but this is the fun thing to talk about, right? We always have talked about our greatest players and, know,
00:15:54
Speaker
there's something downstream of the Messi-Ronaldo debate, of the Madrid superstar, of the goal-scoring superstar, um to being kind of a me, me, me player.
00:16:06
Speaker
Is Kylian Mbappe in that mold? He's got a World Cup. he' like right like he's He's pretty unassailable. like It's unfair, but If his ego gets in the way, does that hurt France enough? That is like the, the, the funniest, the funnest question to ask of what could slow down France, your thoughts, right?
00:16:25
Speaker
And I think it's the thing that makes it the most fun question to ask is we've seen this with France before, right? Like the French national team is littered with these sort of inner working kind of backstabbing back room drama that gets onto the field and then they're not talking to each other and then they have to play like,
00:16:46
Speaker
There are teams where you look at them and you say, oh, that's a team that's very well together and you'd be surprised if things kind of fall apart. The talent here is so good that it maybe could fall apart and they could still win the World Cup.
00:16:59
Speaker
But when margins are as slim as they can be at high, high, the highest levels of international football, those kind of things can matter.
00:17:09
Speaker
And the whole Dechamps, Mbappe, Jumeni, whoever it is, vibes, it at least causes you to question and say, I'd like to at least keep my eye on this because it could be mid-June at MetLife Stadium and the rumors start to kind of flicker out, right? Like they start to kind of leak and you see everything's not quite there with France.
00:17:33
Speaker
That might be the only thing that there that is their downfall at this tournament unless they come up against a team that can play them man for man in a semifinal or a final. Basically. And when you get to that stage, you've you've got to be looking at Theo Hernandez was pretty good for France the last World Cups. Just in terms of starters, he's probably the weakest link because Koundé is a great defensive right back.
00:17:55
Speaker
He's playing in the Saudi League. You know, is he still, you know, can he play against, you think about the best right wingers in the world, Maybe that's a healthy Lamin-Yamal. Maybe that's Bukaya Saka in the final if it's England.
00:18:07
Speaker
That's the challenge, right? Where a team ah a good enough team could hurt you. And mean and like can you hold up? Again, Upa Makano, can he hold up in in ah in a big game, right? And he he's okay for Bayern, but he gives you that mistake.
00:18:19
Speaker
So that's kind of the the very most margin you could poke a hole in France's case. The thing is, like even if they go behind... It's not like they can't get out of that. Right. Right. Just presses the button.
00:18:33
Speaker
So, like, I think maybe there's a question of we've always asked, is the Shams too conservative? Is he too conservative? and to me, this iteration, I struggle to see that being an issue. Like, I know he's going to be conservative, but if they're ever in danger, i have no doubt that he can just turn the dial. Like, that's kind of what we expect. Right.
00:18:52
Speaker
Look at what they did in the World Cup final against Argentina, right? They went down two goals and Dechamps made a change at 30 minutes because he knew that this wasn't going to work. He is by nature conservative and that's how he wants to win and that's how he wants to see the game go.
00:19:05
Speaker
But he's not so rigid that if his team is actually in trouble, he won't make the necessary changes. So that's something that we could see. Interestingly, a I've referred to France as the prohibited favorites here for most of this. That actually isn't where the numbers are at. i we We were going to talk about this.
00:19:22
Speaker
Yeah, the odds makers actually have Spain in front of France. Why do you think that is? Is it so simple as Spain's group is easier than France's is? And so there's less of a chance that Spain fall that early?
00:19:33
Speaker
Or why why do you think that is? I think that's part of it. I think on the field stuff, I mean, to me, if you're trying to really choose between the top four, it's hard to put one above the other. Or at least if you want to say there's tiers of, sorry Argentina, I think France, Spain, and England are are on paper just a little better in terms of talent.
00:19:55
Speaker
But to me, putting that ahead is kind of ah the public like handicap of won the Euros, um I think has the little bit of the the the winner's mentality. I think, honestly, if you look at Spain right now, the biggest things you have to be concerned about are Laminya Mal's injury.
00:20:13
Speaker
We do not know what he's going to look like coming back from that in a World Cup. And Rodri is missing time for Spain. And Rodri is... So important to Spain being the best team in the world.
00:20:23
Speaker
And you see it with Man City when he's not at 100%. They are not the best team in England. And I think really like looking at those two things, Spain is is mispriced.
00:20:37
Speaker
Compared to to France. I think especially when you look at this France team, we've just watched. And again, we're biased. We've just watched the Champions League semifinals. And the best players on the field have been Dembele and Alise.
00:20:51
Speaker
The best defense in the world is Arsenal. And that's Saliba. Like, oh, and PSG. Sorry, we I said Dembele. You have to add in Douay. You have to add in Barclay, right? Like,
00:21:04
Speaker
i I really, really struggle to see a team being better. And I think the the case is is England, and they have their own problems that we also just saw in the Champions League. So this is not for this podcast, but...
00:21:17
Speaker
I think they should be the the the favorite. But the other thing I will say, as I saw anecdotally, is that 40% of the public thinks that France is the best team. So maybe, I don't know exactly on the odds, it's very very narrow either way. At best, neither of these teams, any of them are even over 20% because that's the nature of the beast.
00:21:38
Speaker
But if you were going to pick one, you know I think just in terms of attrition, it's hard to argue against this team. They seem to be the best, deepest team, and so often that can be what makes the difference at the World Cup, and that should at least make the difference in determining who is the World Cup favorite.
00:21:53
Speaker
all right, let's move across to Norway, who are making their fourth World Cup appearance, but their first since 1998. It, in in fact, is their first major tournament appearance since the Euro in 2000. That is a run of 12 major tournaments without an appearance for Norway at either the World Cup or the European Championships. They had an incredible qualifying campaign. They played eight matches. They won all eight of them. They scored 37 goals. They conceded just five.
00:22:18
Speaker
They are the principal reason why Italy are not at the World Cup. They smoked Italy italy twice in head-to-head matchups and made quick work of the rest of their group. The expectations for Norway, Amit,
00:22:29
Speaker
are a massive shrug emoji because I feel like everything, and I mean everything, is on the table for
Norway's Potential in the World Cup
00:22:35
Speaker
this team. You can talk me into Norway coming back to the World Cup with a bang and making a semifinal appearance.
00:22:41
Speaker
You could also talk me into Norway not having the major tournament experience, the high-level matches that they need. to perform at a World Cup, and they could go out with a whimper in the round of 32 or even the group stage.
00:22:53
Speaker
This might be one of the most volatile possibilities at this World Cup. I agree. And I think part of that volatility is the unknown because their qualifying was so easy, but they played so well.
00:23:10
Speaker
yeah And then you also have the, how do you evaluate Italy like being the team that they made themselves look the best against? And you can't discount that they missed Euro 24, right? So like what is the the true level? And and obviously, I think...
00:23:28
Speaker
when you have one of the best strikers in the world in Erling Haaland, that's just going to get you some of that, you know, star player, okay team buzz for Dark Horse. We know that profile. We've seen that profile. But then you add in the other, you know, star players, for sure, Martin Odegaard, plus the other attackers you talked about. And ah you get a very, very popular Dark Horse pick.
00:23:53
Speaker
You get a very popular. And there's no way to slow that. But at the same time, right, This is group. We have not seen Norway do it against... Norway has not played a high-level match in pretty much any scenario for a really long time. We have not seen them play the France's, the England's, the Spain's. They had a couple matchups with Spain in in qualifying a couple cycles ago.
00:24:16
Speaker
But at a major tournament in this sort of environment, we've simply not seen it. Right, and we have a friendly against the Netherlands to one they lost. like It's a friendly. like We're going to see some more friendlies for them, but like it's so hard to price this team. and I think the the biggest question is we know the the names up top are great.
00:24:37
Speaker
We know... their defensive names are less good. Can those defensive names be better than the sum of their parts? And we know they're going play counter defendant counter style because of the whole makeup of the team.
00:24:53
Speaker
Staley Solvaken's been in charge since 2020 for Norway. I think the attack here, and you you talked about Holland, you name dropped Odegaard. We've also got Sorla, Noosa, Bob, Sheldrup in behind.
00:25:05
Speaker
The attack here can hold up with just about anyone in this tournament. This bit doesn't work because we just talked about France and they have literally the best attack in this tournament. But outside of the super, super favorites, it's hard to find a team at this tournament that has a better equipped attack than what Norway can run out, right?
00:25:26
Speaker
I think so. And that's on Holland. But also he has a running mate in Soarloth that when you get two strikers, that puts a lot of pressure on the back line. And then I think Noosa is one of the star profiles of young star profiles of this tournament. He's at RB Leipzig. He is a really good dribbler shadow striker.
00:25:46
Speaker
And you just kind of, when you roll out three smart attackers and they are, and they can play off each other, that is a problem. I think Nusa is going to be, if Norway have a good tournament, he is that like kind of X factor creative player with Odegaard too, who is, you know, the key attacking midfielder on the, one of the best teams, if not the best team in Europe right now in Arsenal. So that, that that is just a really, really good combo.
00:26:14
Speaker
know, If you back off them, Odegaard can pick you apart, but they want to, you know, Holland and Sorloth are big runners. They want to defend, kick long, and you are in trouble. We've seen at Holland at his best, right?
00:26:30
Speaker
He's helped Manchester City win titles by being the crossing guy. But at his best is if you give that guy an inch of space, he is behind you, you cannot touch him, and then he scores. You know, he's he's the he's the best at that.
00:26:44
Speaker
That is just, you have to game plan for that in a way that takes the whole game out of its fun. Moving beyond that, though, is where the questions come in. The pieces for Norway in kind of the back end of the midfield and the defense, they they feel adequate, adequate right? You look at the names, you look at the clubs, and you say, this is a very solid European team. But to put it simply, admit as we mentioned earlier, we have not seen them play at a high level or play high-level opposition.
00:27:12
Speaker
And so that's when the questions come in. What happens when this team comes across a team that can play them? Man for man that can ask questions of this defense in a way that Italy couldn't in qualification, simply on the basis of being Italy.
00:27:26
Speaker
That is where this kind of all boils down for Norway and might be what determines how their World Cup goes. Yeah, you look at this back line. Ryerson is a solid player. He's he's had some some reps at Dortmund, but Hegem, Ajir, Eier, Moeller, Wolff.
00:27:48
Speaker
It's okay. It's okay. And the other the players, two other players, just got to give a shout out to, not inef defense, but big pieces that can help. um Strand Larson at yeah ah Wolverhampton. He's a solid depth striker. I don't think he should start, but he could. And then Oscar Bob is a kind of a useful player also at Man City. Funny name, but ah yeah he's a good guy. He can kind of do a little bit of everything. So...
00:28:08
Speaker
They're going to be techie. I think that's the thing like with the ball that's dangerous. So if you try to press them, they they're they're going to kind of get you that way. It's tough. I think one question with all these teams is how aggressive can you be and when in trying to get the ball off them with the heat, with your legs?
00:28:27
Speaker
I think Norway is going to force teams to to really back off. And it's interesting because their first game in this group stage is going to be largely kind of what we saw in qualifying right against Iraq, ah Norway against a team that is not as strong as they are, a bit more defensive. But then you get two really fascinating matches with Senegal, who we'll touch on in a minute. And then with France on the last day, which that game could really be anything. right? Like there's a scenario in which France have six points and you're getting the France rotated side, which is still intriguing. Or if both of those teams need a result, I think that's tactically absolutely fascinating to see how that game goes.
00:29:05
Speaker
And Norway-Senegal, talk about a matchup of physicality with that Norway attack against that Senegal defense. That game is going to be so tactically intriguing.
00:29:17
Speaker
Norway-Senegal is one of my my favorite games of the entire group stage. We're about to talk about Senegal. I think for Norway, the the blueprint is there right to to make a run because of your attack, because you can kind of force teams to back you back off of you and then you know pick your spots. Or if you're playing a better team than you, like France, or you're in a round of 16 type game against a big team...
00:29:42
Speaker
yeah the threat is always there, right? On the counter. So that's... It's an intriguing proposition. The question is, when you play the best teams that aren't like the teams in Europe that you smashed...
00:29:55
Speaker
Can your defense hold up in a low block when they know Holland is there, but they're goingnna they're going to just force your defenders to to really protect their box for 90 minutes? i'm I'm a bit skeptical of their dark horsiness in that way, but when you have Erling Holland, you could you could make a semifinal. I mean, i'm now no stink. You can You can.
00:30:17
Speaker
Yeah, and if your defense doesn't hold up, can you score enough goals to stay in the game regardless, right? Like the attacking talent is there that, look, it's not the way you want to play, but three threes on the cards here. Yeah, maybe this is a team that could be one of the fun teams that says we have to play the dial up no matter what happens. We have to try to score three to beat you.
00:30:37
Speaker
That would be a maybe we're maybe I'm sleeping on like that could be a great turn for this toy team. You got you got me excited like that might be their best way to play. Senegal amid making their fourth World Cup appearance in 2002. They made their debut and then three straight World Cups now with 18 and 22.
00:30:55
Speaker
ah Famous quarterfinal result in that debut in 2002. They are coming off the ghost quoted vacated AFCON title to start 2026 over We don't have to rehash all of that, but needless to say, Senegal won and then they didn't, but they still kind of did.
00:31:11
Speaker
Had a very tough qualifying group in CAF where they came out ahead of DR Congo, who will also be at this World Cup. One of the games of World Cup qualification was Senegal rallying from a 2-0 deficit on a big match day in Kinshasa. Paptiol, the manager, has been carrying on the project that was initially started by Los Cisse, helmed that AFCON campaign.
00:31:31
Speaker
Good vibes for Senegal. Can Senegal be the Morocco of 2022? I mean, are the pieces there for that to work? It's easy to say in theory, right? I think one of the great things in trying to find your dark horse look at the profile of the teams that did it. Yeah. And on the surface,
00:31:51
Speaker
Morocco was perhaps the best team in Africa, and that's because they had a few Champions League-level stars and a really solid 11 of no slouches, right? Like, all those guys were Europa League-level-ish and a good manager.
00:32:07
Speaker
And then you look at Senegal, and It's pretty good. It's pretty good. i'm I'm not sure we have a player as good as Atrof Hakimi hey from the 22 Morocco run.
00:32:20
Speaker
But you've kind of got a really nasty way to play that to me is suited to tournament football. And I think Senegal won the AFCON because of it.
00:32:33
Speaker
um To me, i think there's a good shout for Morocco. There's a good shout for every coast to me. Senegal is the best team in Africa. So right there, given the current state, the best team in Africa should be a dark horse candidate,
Senegal: The Dark Horse?
00:32:45
Speaker
right? Like that was Morocco. So I am, I am very, very excited about the Senegal team.
00:32:53
Speaker
I think that, the The balance of the 11 and the midfield are very strong. Famous things for me to see in my dark horses that hurt me.
00:33:05
Speaker
This is the guy that loved Austria. i love i loved the midfield engine. And I think... the the The attack, right? Sadio Mane is a talisman that we all know. We all know this guy is a superstar. And they've kind of given him a role where he can be an attacking superstar without getting too exposed.
00:33:23
Speaker
And the other player I'm really, really, really excited about is Ilman Ndai at Everton. He's a great dribbling winger. He's not quite Michael Alise, Bukaya Saka, you know, pick your top, top winger.
00:33:37
Speaker
But the guy is a great dribbler. And then I think if, to me, the biggest question for can Senegal get where they need to go is does the striker position come up with a handful of goals? That's Nico Jackson, who's had a pretty quiet season at Bayern backing up Harry Kane.
00:33:52
Speaker
Or maybe it's Ismail Assar at Crystal Palace. If Senegal can kind of get a few half chances playing their game model of being really annoying to play against, it's there.
00:34:07
Speaker
You mentioned it. They're a tough physical team to play against. They have that high motor midfield attack in in transition, semi-transition off turnovers. They also admit, crucially, have the calf experience. of right theyve They've seen low blocks before. they've seen ah They've seen a lot of that in calf qualifying.
00:34:23
Speaker
That will help them when they come up against Iraq and this group. Senegal, France on the first... you know, day of this tournament at MetLife. Obviously, you can't help but think back to 2002 when Senegal shocked France in their World Cup debut defending champions France. That game is super intriguing. I don't think the champ will have to push the button. I also don't think he will feel pressured to push the button because a draw is not a terrible result for France.
00:34:48
Speaker
But that is a really good measuring stick for Senegal in the first game to see, okay, just where is the level at? Can you frustrate a France side that might not be 100% there, right? This probably isn't going to be France's best effort of the tournament.
00:35:04
Speaker
Are the pieces there to on a hot, sweaty afternoon at MetLife Stadium with the sun beating down? Can Senegal say, we're going to make your life really hard? And can that work? We know that's what they're going say, right? That's the approach.
00:35:17
Speaker
Can that actually work? I think that will go a long way towards determining how I feel about them going through the rest of this tournament. Well said, and I expect it to be pretty effective um in terms of that midfield three. And I think the the thing that's tough is the midfield three are not great creative players, right? You're looking at Kamara, Pop Gay, Idrissa Gay, maybe it's Popsar, maybe it's Habib Diara at Sunderland. All of these guys are physical engines. It's not that they can't pass. I'm not i'm not going to sell them like short. But none of those guys are like creative wingers. Really, the creative guy is Indai and Mane. And he kind of floats on the the left wing, goes wherever he wants. They run things through the right.
00:36:03
Speaker
And also, does it have a ton of... Like, Sadio Mane's juice meter, right? Is less... yeah like Still got it, but can't quite call on it as much maybe he's... Exactly. He's not the Liverpool like run the run the wings, dribble, cook you, do everything. He's like, I'm a second striker. I get the ball and the ball falls to me in the box and then I get shots, which is a great thing to do when everyone else feeds you shots. And that's the thing. this is you know This is a brute force team. They win the ball in positions that are good and then they go to goal.
00:36:36
Speaker
They, you know, when they break down a calf block, it's not like, you know, Barcelona undressing you with 30 passes or like Manchester City. It's we're going to throw the ball in the box a bunch and eventually it's going to fall. and we're just go Yeah. One of our our strike our striker is going to head it in.
00:36:55
Speaker
you're going to be locked in. The ball bounces to our, one of our midfielders like pops are or money and he shoots it. And our center backs are decent set piece threats too. So that's the kind of model you've seen that model. And I think that's a good model because they're going to be very tough to beat in terms of like,
00:37:12
Speaker
you know weaknesses, the defense is solid. It's not as good as the the highest pedigree defenses, right? The best center, Mamadou Sar, is a great player at Lyon, but that's Lyon.
00:37:24
Speaker
Kalidou Koulibaly, a name we all know, god was at Napoli, is now in the Saudi league and is past the step. And I think that's the one Mark is a ah team that's just when, when, when you go head to head with Senegal, it's pinball, it's crash ball.
00:37:38
Speaker
Senegal is like, we're just going to contest every blade of the midfield. But if the ball bounces over his head, If you have a fast striker, that's a problem, right? And that's the one... And you know what's a problem for Senegal? Look at this group. What does this group have? Fast strikers, right? Like Koulibaly and Bappe, that's probably problematic. Yeah. And so he's got to use his physicality and try to prevent them from space. And Senegal, you know, will be happy to back off and block it, low block it, mid block it, not give you anything easy. Yeah.
00:38:08
Speaker
It's going to be fascinating to see if they can do that against France and Norway. And they don't have to win both games. But I think just ramping up that intensity level, this is just one of like the non-favorite teams that you want to see the least, I think, in a knockout stage. They take some beating. Morocco, who previously held the belt as, think, best team in Africa,
00:38:33
Speaker
Couldn't really score on them in 90 minutes, right? There was a dubious, dubious penalty. They got in the 90th minute. We know what happened next. Actually, no, we don't know what happened next, but that's a whole different podcast. Correct, correct.
00:38:47
Speaker
of But like it takes a really great team to undo them. Now, again, when you get to the top five or six teams in this tournament... they're going to be at a disadvantage. They're not going to be playing even. They're going to be playing from behind.
00:39:01
Speaker
i think they can play that underdog game. I think what's going to be the toughest thing for this team is when they're down one against a great team, the brute force approach of chasing a goal is not going to work against the France's, Brazil's, England's of the world.
00:39:17
Speaker
But as long as they can kind of grime you, they have a chance. And that is a model that can get you to to penalty kicks frequently, which is a great way to approach knockout stages. Or you you muck it up and you steal one against the run of play and then you're really hard to to score against and threatening on the counter.
00:39:33
Speaker
So that's, you know, it's a good model. I'm very, very intrigued by the Senegal team. I think they're I think overall in the tournament, they are underpriced for what they are. It's a tough group, but I'm, you know, Senegal, Norway, a big game, big game for trying to get second. Even if, as you said from the start, third place isn't, I mean, you don't know where that goes.
00:39:54
Speaker
um Second place is a really winnable game because you're getting another second place team. Senegal can win that game. And if you look specifically Senegal versus Norway, yes, Norway has a better attack, but Senegal has three phases.
00:40:07
Speaker
Norway has two. i think there's some I think there's some value there in Senegal specifically. We didn't talk much about Edouard Mendy in goal. He is a very high variance player, right? Can win you a match is also 34 and in the Saudi league. And so like that just tells you all you need to know about the potential variance here player to keep an eye on. I think the order of games here is very interesting for Senegal. We've met, I meant, we talked about that game that starts out against France at MetLife, all of the the throwbacks to 2002 and everything that comes with that game.
00:40:40
Speaker
The Norway game where, look, if Senegal lose against France, they're probably going to be pressured to try and get something against Norway. And then admit there's a scenario where, say, Senegal go down in both of those games.
00:40:51
Speaker
You have Iraq on the last match day in a must-win and perhaps must-score situation, right? Senegal could be in a spot where I is far enough down in the alphabet where they're going to know more or less what number would be safe.
00:41:04
Speaker
That can be intriguing as well. It's a difficult order of things, but things will get a lot easier for Senegal if they get something from either of those first two matches.
00:41:15
Speaker
Needless to say, if they win one of those first two matches, they'll be in a really good spot. Yeah, you'd hope for a iraq earlier, I think is the best, like the truth of it. And I think you you've outlined that way.
00:41:26
Speaker
having them last and knowing how much you might need to score against them. Information can help too a little bit. There's a positive. It's not that it's bad, but there is just that trouble scenario where they go. owe and two, and you're feeling the pressure on the last and go low and two, right? Like that's absolutely on the cards here. You can play well and still not win.
00:41:43
Speaker
So which is why I think 100% Senegal is trying to, to Nick a sleepy point off France in the opener. Like, yeah I think that's the task there. That game is going to be really funny. i'm I'm not sure it's going to be a good game, but it's going to be really funny to see if they're basically going to ask the question, Hey, are you up for beating us? Like, are you really going to try to rev the gear on the first day? I don't think you are. Are you going to get to the gear necessary to break us down? Like, we're not going to try to poke you. We're not going to try to wake you up.
00:42:10
Speaker
I'm like, all right, you're going to need to get to like third and a half year to beat us. Yeah, but there is some, yeah exactly. But there is some France Senegal juice as a matchup. So maybe there is some, Hey, let's make a statement. Let's poke them. Like, I don't know. I i don't know. It's going to going to be great. Going to be great. Let's talk about Iraq.
00:42:32
Speaker
Let's talk about Iraq a bit. um There are some teams at this tournament where the easy thing to do on a preview podcast is shrug your shoulders and say, yeah it's going to be tough for Iraq.
00:42:42
Speaker
It's going to be tough for insert pot for team here. We would be doing Iraq a disservice to do that. We would also be doing ourselves. a disservice to do that. We watched way too much World Cup qualification matches to simply brush off Iraq and say, ah, gotta be tough. Maybe they can do something. So let's talk about a Iraq. We're making their second World Cup appearance, the first time since 1986, which also took place in
Iraq's World Cup Journey
00:43:04
Speaker
Mexico.
00:43:04
Speaker
Unfortunately for Iraq, no games in Mexico this time, but they did qualify for this World Cup in Mexico. Speaking of qualifying, Amit, uh are you ready because some of these qualification summaries are really easy right ah france topped a group with ukraine azerbaijan and whoever else easy good one sentence we're done can't do that with iraq start the timer because iraq played 21 world cup qualification matches that is most than anybody else all across the world they got six wins from six in the second round of asian qualifying in a group alongside indonesia vietnam and the philippines Then in the third round, they crucially finished one point back of Jordan, also behind South Korea.
00:43:42
Speaker
That put them into the fourth round where they again finished second, this time behind Saudi Arabia after a nil-nil draw, but crucially ahead of podcast favorites Indonesia.
00:43:53
Speaker
Then they went to the fifth round where over two legs on aggregate, they topped the UAE 3-2. That put them in Mexico where a 2-1 win over Bolivia in the Inter-Confederation playoff helped them claim the 48th and final spot in this World Cup. It was a journey for Iraq to get here. They are battle-tested. We can at least say that.
00:44:15
Speaker
You kept that under a minute. That was tight. but you were you were You were going. Exactly. um this i mean, long live Asian qualifying, truly. That was a delight. Literally, because it is the longest living. You can't kill it.
00:44:29
Speaker
I think... it's, you know, we're going to talk about the team, but it's like a very illustrative point to the level of Iraq and not in a bad way. They just kind of played the game of qualifying as long and as miserable as they had to because that was the way to get in as, as the 48th team here, it was to, or the 47th team here was to, to just hang around and,
00:44:56
Speaker
they were called They were close in the third round, right? They were close, but that we we said the question was, who's better, a Rock or Jordan? It was Jordan. And then credit to them, they just kind of picked up from after that and and not snuck their way in, but...
00:45:11
Speaker
They just kept going. They kept playing matches until there were no more matches to play, right? That that was yeah the thing here for Iraq. Graham Arnold, their manager, took over for the Spaniard Jesus Casas in May after a pretty poor one-point window against Kuwait and Palestine. That put them against the back there, and that is what led to them finishing behind Jordan.
00:45:29
Speaker
Lots of experience for Graham Arnold. He obviously managed Australia to a strong campaign in 2022. There's no real surprises for what you're going to get. He's going look to keep it simple. They're going to look to bunker and counter.
00:45:39
Speaker
The interesting thing with Iraq Amit is their attack is going to be what determines how far they go at this World Cup. They have an intriguing trio of attacking players.
00:45:53
Speaker
who can leave their mark on this tournament, right? You've got Ayman Hussain, a podcast favorite, long career, not playing at a high level with his club, but always seems to score when it matters for a rock, has the finishing touch. He's a big target guy. Hold up play helps with that bunker style.
00:46:08
Speaker
Ali Al-Hamadidi is probably their best player. He's at Luton Town. He scored the Inter-Confederation Playoff. He's high energy, direct. I think he's their best overall talent. And you've got Mohan Ali, who also has a good goal-scoring record for Iraq.
00:46:21
Speaker
He's at Dibba in the second division of the UAE. He's 25 years old, but he already has 27 goals for the national team. He's a good mover. He can bring them pace and space off the bench. There are, amit I think, a number of mid-to-bottom-tier teams of this tournament.
00:46:34
Speaker
who would kill for a trio of attacking players with this kind of track record. That said, this kind of track record came against the mid-tier of Asia, right?
00:46:45
Speaker
This is a big step up for Iraq. Instead of it being Jordan and Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, we're talking about Senegal and Norway and France.
00:46:55
Speaker
And that gulf in quality is probably going to be where this comes undone. That's the trouble for them. I think in another group with a weaker third pod team, these attackers are good enough um on the counter or long ball really like hold up play like you said. And again, they're a very solid set piece team too um that like they can kind of ask questions. Yeah.
00:47:22
Speaker
this is This is a tough ask. I think if they can frustrate Norway and Senegal enough, you know defend their box enough, they can hang and get you know a couple of half chances or or kind of grind that to a stalemate.
00:47:39
Speaker
But the issue is those teams are just so incentivized to to clean up and as in the fourth pot. It's not like there's no sleep. There's no there's less trap game in this World Cup. There is no trap game. You simply have to you simply have to punish the bad teams. And unfortunately, when you're looking around, he goes, there's no bad teams. It's you. That's your rock. That's what's so tough for them. like these are bad ah but yeah If you're a rock, I think you're looking at Norway, right? Because you get them you get them first, right? yeah And I think you're thinking, look, we we know Holland company are a problem, but let's park it
00:48:16
Speaker
and say, come come get nine guys to beat us. And if you don't, we're going to hit it long to Ayman Hussain. He's going to head it to Al-Hamadi. It's going to be two on two, and someone's going to dribble, and we're going to get a shot. And maybe we score on a counter, and then if we get up going that two and a half times a game, and we're going hope that we score once, right?
00:48:39
Speaker
Exactly. and And I think... they don't really One thing I like about them is they don't really make a ton of mistakes in the back for a team of this level. They are very no-nonsense. That's why they're here. Again, nothing spectacular, but yeah. Listen, when you're in the the pod four team, you've got to think about the case. You've got to talk yourself in the case. It is a tough group for them.
00:49:01
Speaker
they are not the worst pot four team here. They're not bad. It's just that Norway and Segal are tough, but you know, if, if you, if you frustrate those teams, there there's chance France is, you can't really talk yourself into that no matter what, but let's see.
00:49:19
Speaker
I'm, I'm hopeful they could get a point maybe, but the, the way this format is, is very bad news for them. It's, Let's see. That first game against Norway is their best chance because I think you might you might catch Norway you know in in a moment where they're not... it Not just vibes, Norway's never been here.
00:49:43
Speaker
And Iraq is battle-tested. you just got to survive like 30 minutes and then you're in the game. you You just got to be in the game and then see what happens.
00:49:56
Speaker
And I think Hussein, there is something to him that like the club record is, is very like, Oh, this guy's not, not a premier league player, not a top five league player, but you and I have watched enough of him. He is a very, very savvy. Number nine.
00:50:12
Speaker
yeah You have to account. You have to account for his movement, late runs in the box. If they get like, even more than to if they get like four or five runs and they can find a cross, he can steal a goal. He can steal a goal.
00:50:27
Speaker
It's just, it's a low proposition game. That's the game they have to play. Obviously, when you talk about a team like Iraq, what happens in net is important. There's some intrigue in goal for them. Jalal Hassan, who has 100 caps, he's been their captain. He missed the interconvention playoff through injury. Looks like he's lost form for Al-Zawara in the Iraqi League. So Ahmed Basel looks like he is Graham Arnold's choice in goal.
00:50:48
Speaker
But midfield and defense, as we've mentioned a lot, it's solid, if not spectacular. It's particularly not spectacular when you look at... You compare it, you know, man for man, name for name, club for club, I guess the rest of the teams in this group.
00:50:59
Speaker
But as you said, admit they know their style play. There's no questions about what they're going to be trying to do. They're committed to doing it. They've done it with marginal success throughout Asia for quite some time, right?
00:51:10
Speaker
They've had some Asian Cup runs. They got through this World Cup qualification. As we've said a lot... The issue is going to be the change in level from it's one thing to do this against South Korea.
00:51:22
Speaker
It's a whole other thing to do this against Norway and against France. And that's going to be where this big question is. the The path, as you said, is is trying to get a point from that first game against Norway.
00:51:33
Speaker
If they don't get anything from Norway and France, their biggest risk of it is that they're going to be so far down the third place table that even if they beat Senegal on the last day, the goal differential might not be there to get into the top eight.
00:51:46
Speaker
So even if they lose to Norway and France, if they can keep it to one nil or two nil, that gives them a shot going into that last match day. All right. Closing out this group a bit. go ahead. Yeah.
00:51:58
Speaker
No, they need to be within three, like one Oh two Oh to win one, win by one and then get in at three minus two on the cut line. That's your sneakiest path in. i think you, if,
00:52:10
Speaker
they will feel like they've got a real fighting chance if they can steal a point off Norway. Absolutely, because then you win against Senegal and you're going to be in a good spot because you're going four points. and And as we've talked about, that should be enough to get through. All there are some good games in this group. We've mentioned just about all of them.
00:52:25
Speaker
If you're only watching one game from this group of it, which is it? Norway, Senegal. You can see France later. um That, to me, is the the dark horse um belt belt battle. Whoever wins is going to be like, we can make a run. We got a good bracket a spot, too. So I think that is a really, really fun game.
00:52:50
Speaker
um I think... legitimately two teams that that can make that like will be getting Dark Horse buzz and whoever wins is kind of gonna get some some dark so some media darling so let's see that's a That's an absolutely great one that comes, obviously, as we said, on the second match day, Norway-Sanagal at MetLife on June 22nd in the evening. all right, let's close out this group a bit by talking about the odds we think to go through here. If we had to put numbers on going through, not winning the group, not finishing a second, but going through, where what are we looking at as far as chances for each of these four teams?
00:53:29
Speaker
I mean, France is like basically at 95 plus percent um based on the odds. And I think on the like we can imagine France catastrophe. Can either you or I imagine France not getting out of this group?
Predictions and Risks for Group Advancement
00:53:44
Speaker
No, because there's a game against Iraq that... like like yeah even Even if Senegal and Norway punk them, even if they still can get through, and that is where that doesn't happen.
00:53:55
Speaker
Norway is priced pretty well here. I think the odds are kind of over 80%, 90% to go through. Regardless, Senegal more
00:54:07
Speaker
senegal more at like seventy I think because if you're looking at there's eight out of 12 third place teams, they're, you know, 70% of the time, they're one of the top two thirds of third place teams. And that puts a rock at about 18% or so to go through, which is high. If you think about that, everyone else has a really good chance, but I think that's just the, the scenario where they could kind of back their way into that third place spot. So you've got to, you've got to give it to them.
00:54:37
Speaker
I mean, just in terms of going through, like should Norway be a little lower? Should Senegal be a little higher maybe, but because of the third place table, know, and the fourth team being a rock.
00:54:49
Speaker
Can you disagree with that? No, and I think there's also a bit of danger for both Senegal and Norway where they could lose. like If France shows up and is invested, there's a scenario in which those games finish three or four goals. France can beat Norway 4-1. They can beat Senegal 3-0. That might not be the...
00:55:10
Speaker
the expected outcome, but that's certainly on the table. And that could put them in a difficult spot goal differential wise, because then you can play well and still lose by two goals in the second game. And then that Iraq game becomes very important because you have to score a lot because three minus four might not get it done. So i think that is the dangerous scenario for Norway and Senegal is losing big against France. As is said, there's really no dangerous scenario here for France, I don't think.
00:55:35
Speaker
And as we we made the case for Iraq, it's get a point somewhere or hang around close enough that you can snatch a win against Senegal on the last day and see what happens. 18% feels very high for Iraq for me, ah to be brutally honest. But let's see.
00:55:49
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I guess you got that's basically the chance of them getting a result against Senegal in a one-off game, maybe is like the kindest way to look at it. If they lose two and it's it comes to the the last day and they just need a 1-0, perhaps even... you know twenty They have a less than 20% chance on an open field against Senegal is even...
00:56:11
Speaker
maybe even a little lower than you you think just because of the way soccer is, right? You really have to be a lot better than someone to get that high in probability. It is what it is. I mean, maybe anecdotally you and I feel it's lower, but we got to see, right?
00:56:23
Speaker
Got to play the games, right? That's yeah the that's how international soccer works. Yeah, it's early. i don't I'm not stinking either. These are my dark horse. We're going to do all of our previews before I give my official stinker to the team. I certainly crash out.
00:56:37
Speaker
But if you can't tell, i think Senegal is definitely a little bit undervalued. I think Norway has a little bit of uncertainty. Fun little bet here. We're not. Neither of us are are really gamblers, but I think the odds are super interesting to think about.
00:56:49
Speaker
If you're trying to think about where you can get some of that value, France it ah france first, Norway second has a plus 125. That's about a little less than 50%.
00:57:01
Speaker
But you can get France first, Senegal second, sneaky plus 275. If you think Senegal can can outdo Norway in that one game, which again we're saying is a little bit of value, and if you want to protect yourself, you could do a little Senegal wins the group action. don um i Again, this is not a gambling podcast, but I think let's let's keep an eye on that. I think one of the interesting games that we've outlined many, many times is Senegal-Norway. It's going to tell us a lot about those teams and about you know Africa, Europe, that kind of stuff too.
00:57:34
Speaker
Really, really fun. And as we've said so many times, the odds work are are a really good jumping off point for discussing because nobody has more data than the people trying to make money off of this, right? And so it is a perfect way to kind of come to an easy assessment of, all right, where are things at, at a neutral standpoint here to start off with? So I think that's why it's always good to check the odds and come to the numbers because they do do so much in determining everything else. you Got anything else on this group before we wrap?
00:58:05
Speaker
No, this is this is going to be fun. I think the France is a very, very, very big favorite. Let's see what they look like to start. And let's see how much that matters going forward, right? Because while you and I are big on the whole vibe stuff, we can also realize that how you are on June 16th, it probably isn't how you are on July 16th, right? That can change. This is a long turner. There's an extra game, all that stuff. Vibes matter, but they can also shift. And they can shift for the bad too, because again, this is France. All right, that's it for Amit and I on today's show. Tremendously fun. We love this group. We love this World Cup.
00:58:46
Speaker
If you love this World Cup and if you love this show and you like what we do, you can support us at patreon.com slash WCAD. $3 a month, access to subscriber-only content, and you help us financially keep doing what we love doing here. Amit will be back soon. We've got 11 more previews to go.
00:59:00
Speaker
We hope that you will be along for the ride on all of them. Thanks for listening.