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WCAD 4-6: Group C Preview
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The guys talk about Group C, a quintessential World Cup Group. Brazil, with Neymar (maybe?) are the headliners, though Morocco, who are looking to graduate past Dark Horse status into genuine contenders, will challenge for the top spot while Scotland and Haiti both have their sights set on finding a path out of the Group.
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Transcript
Overview of World Cup Group C
00:00:00
Speaker
Some late-breaking information that is very useful for today's show, where we will be talking about Group C. Brazil are the story of this group. Neymar, as you'll hear on the show, might be the story of Brazil.
Neymar's Injury Update
00:00:14
Speaker
After recording this podcast, before putting it out, ah we got some further details on potential injury concern for Neymar. He injured his calf in his final match for Santos, which was the day before the Brazil squad was named.
00:00:28
Speaker
Santos were very adamant that it was nothing major and that he would return to health very quickly. He missed the final two group stage matches for Santos in the Convoal Sudamericana, also missed a match in the Brasiliano.
00:00:41
Speaker
Reported to the Brazilian national team yesterday on Wednesday, May 27th. Further scans revealed that Neymar has a grade two calf strain, which will probably entail two to three weeks of recovery.
00:00:53
Speaker
There is some tension between the CBF, the Brazilian Federation, and Santos because of this. Globo Sports has reported that the CBF has decided to give Neymar 15 days to recover fitness, which is right in the middle of those two to three weeks of recovery. He will miss their two pre-World Cup friendlies against Panama at Americana in Rio and against Egypt in Cleveland.
00:01:17
Speaker
It's probably doubtful for their World Cup debut, but that timeline will leave Brazil right at the edge of their chance of replacing Neymar, which they can do through June 12th, 24 hours before their first World Cup match. There's going lot of Neymar discussion on today's show, but just some further information to contextualize all of that.
00:01:35
Speaker
Every press conference for Brazil between now and the start of World Cup will probably be about him. It adds to the circus atmosphere that we allude to on today's show. It adds to the questioning of whether bringing Neymar was the right decision or not.
00:01:50
Speaker
Time will tell. We'll see if Neymar actually makes it to the World Cup in full health. It will be one of the stories in the World Cup buildup. So some more information for you as you listen to today's show.
00:02:01
Speaker
Enjoy the show.
What Makes Group C Compelling?
00:02:04
Speaker
There are a lot of things I think that go into making a quote unquote good World Cup group. I think we can also debate what is a good World Cup group. Everybody probably has a different definition of that.
00:02:17
Speaker
I, for one, think that Group C, which we're going to talk about today, is a good World Cup group. You have Brazil, who I think are the World Cup team, right? When an innocent bystander thinks of the World Cup, they think of Brazil. They think of that canary yellow. Then you've got Morocco, who are the past World Cup's darling dark horse semifinalists.
Diverse Teams in Group C
00:02:43
Speaker
You have Scotland returning to the World Cup with the flower of Scotland and a lot of very sunburnt white men in Miami by the third stage of the group. And then you have Haiti, who are probably one of the best stories of the World Cup. I don't know where your mileage is at here, Amit, but I am all in on Group C. Even if the on-field stuff may not be super interesting, the pageantry and the aesthetics of this group has me locked in.
00:03:09
Speaker
Yeah, this is a perfect World Cup group. And I mean World Cup like just quintessentially four distinct teams, great cultures, great fan bases, the pageantry for sure. And I think, you know, there's yeah ah there's kind of four good tiers of teams that is like kind of what you expect in a World Cup group.
00:03:29
Speaker
But all of those teams kind of are are have an identity the way they want to play. So even if the teams in the third and the fourth tier are third and fourth tier teams, this is a very classic World Cup group in that sense. And I think that is exciting in its own way. And of course, with you know this format, three teams getting through, I think there's a chance we could be seeing some some a lot of names in the knockout round and some good teams. So obviously Brazil is Brazil. like You just start there and you're happy to happy to be back with them at any time you are.
00:04:01
Speaker
Group stage previews continuing on here on the World Cup After Dark Podcast. He on the other end is Amit Malik. My name is Austin Miller. And as we said, we're talking Group C today. Let's start with the draw, Amit. This group is paired with Group F. And what that means is that the winner of this group will get the runner-up of that group in Houston. The runner-up of this group will get the winner of that group in Monterey. Some interesting round of 16 possibilities. The group winner in this group will get the runner-up of the Germany-Ecuador-Cote-Devalle-Curisal group.
00:04:31
Speaker
or the runner-up of the France, Senegal, Norway group in the round of 16. That is probably a pretty difficult match on paper. The winner of the Mexico group and also, perhaps more importantly, the winner of the England group is in the quadrant for the group winner.
00:04:43
Speaker
The runner-up here ah will get the runner-up of A or B in the round of 16. France and Germany also in the quadrant. um This is an interesting draw because I think it's pretty difficult for both sides.
00:04:57
Speaker
Maybe the runner up has a harder round of 32 match, but for potentially an easier round of 16 match. That's not an easy path for this group winner. Yeah, I think this just group F is tough.
00:05:09
Speaker
Group for the group winner is tough. ah I think there's something to the round of 32 being more difficult for the run up for sure. You're going to maybe have the Netherlands. You don't want to see them. But if you could get through them, then, ah you know, that round of 16 team is going to be relatively soft, all things considered. But I just don't think you want to play for a round of 32 versus the Netherlands. even Even Brazil would not really not want to do that. So,
00:05:36
Speaker
It's a tough draw. It's a tough draw. But I think you would take even Japan, Sweden, Tunisia, whoever that is, you take that as your round of 32 and kind of back yourself if you got through this group, especially if that's Brazil or Morocco, you back yourself. And yeah, I think the runner up of E is...
00:05:54
Speaker
good team but again if you're winning this group i think you're gonna think you can get to a quarterfinal pretty easily and i think that is what makes this whole group really fascinating because brazil is a team that i think has real title aspirations they always have title aspirations this is a decent path but morocco is also thinking hey we're not you know we're not a flash of the pan i think there's a lot of stake to try to get the first spot in this group And it, those two teams open in the first match, which is fascinating. I don't want to spoil the end of the podcast with one game to watch of this group, but Brazil Morocco on the first weekend of the world cup might be one of the best games of the world cup. Let's start with Brazil a bit. They're the seated team in this group.
00:06:36
Speaker
They are, as I alluded to earlier, kind of the World Cup team. They have never missed a World Cup tournament. They have won the World Cup a record five times. But it's been a while since they've been that dominant side that maybe generations prior have come across them to. 94, 98, and they finished first, second, and first, respectively. But since then, two straight quarterfinal exits in 2006 and 2010, a blowout semifinal loss on home soil in 2014, and then two more quarterfinal exits in Russia and Qatar.
00:07:09
Speaker
The question has been for so long, can Brazil get back to that level where they were? And it doesn't necessarily feel like this is the squad that's at that level that we've seen previously with Brazil.
00:07:22
Speaker
And their recent results also suggest that they're kind of not close to that level. I think you're spot on, and that's what the results say. that This team is kind of at best fifth, fourth, maybe at best. But there's a clear drop off, I think, from France, Spain, and England to...
00:07:46
Speaker
Brazil thinks they're right there. And I think very you know clearly the the team in their region that has outshone them recently is Argentina. yeah And I don't think anyone can say that Brazil is better better than Argentina. So really, at best, you're thinking about fifth, I think. And it's been a long way here. it's like Brazil is still the world's you know football...
00:08:07
Speaker
heritage nation, like producing more footballers and everywhere. And they play all over the world. And, you know, they there's something here that's real. But doing that and then being the best national team in the world are different things because you need to get 11 guys in the field that could be at a high level. And Brazil, I think, as we talk about this team, have had a problem since those you know early 2000s days and turning out a great players at every position. And I think that is still plaguing this squad. And I think that is very tough to overcome when...
00:08:44
Speaker
Teams like France and England especially are just machines at developing every position. And both of those countries can pull on a lot of lands that those countries have built.
00:09:00
Speaker
access to through the history of colon colonialism. Brazil don't have that. Brazil just has Brazil. And, you know, it's a great pool. It's a big, big country. Like, it's not a problem. But France and England have a crazy development that Brazil cannot match right now. Spain, even to a sense. I think Spain and Argentina are...
00:09:19
Speaker
in a different category but specifically for brazil there's a reason why they are not at the top anymore and it will take a long time to get back there they have been in this rut for a while and they're still getting out of this rut they have not produced top level midfielders and especially the defensive midfielders in a long time this squad we are going to see how that is reflected And there's we'll get into it in detail here in a minute, but the core thing for Brazil is you just line up this 11 and it just doesn't match up against the 11s that you're seeing from other teams in this tournament. And there's just questions here at a lot more spots than there are
00:10:02
Speaker
four of the best top tier teams in the world. And it's kind of easy to just put that off and say, oh, but they're just a second tier team. But that's not the expectation for Brazil. That's never been the expectation of Brazil. They want to compare themselves to the best team in the world, to France, to Argentina, to England, like you said.
00:10:17
Speaker
But I don't think that comparison is really fair at this point in time because Brazil are kind of a gap behind. They are. And there's also something here that Brazil, this whole thing has been the Jogo Benito, the beautiful game.
00:10:30
Speaker
Everyone plays silky soccer. Everyone on the field, even like total soccer before total soccer and what was really the Netherlands thing. Yeah. Everyone on the field is a technician and we can all do beautiful things with the ball and the game is an art. Well, unfortunately, the last 10, 15 years of soccer and of international soccer has been the un-art of soccer. It has been the money ball of soccer, the analytics of soccer, which is tactics and structure and roles and don't do like pretty things if you're not the best at it. And the thing is, Brazil still has a handful of guys at the top of the game that can do the beautiful stuff on par with everyone.
00:11:13
Speaker
But when the rest of the players on the field are not in that role, I think you're seeing that ah being a problem for Brazil. And the other thing is... they have This is not a new problem, and the decisions they have made, I think, as a federation over the last 10, 15 years, some of the coaches they've done, some of the development they've done, are also come to roost in a sense that like I think Tite as a manager, Cheech, as I should say, is very illustrative of kind of ah a period of development of trying to...
00:11:47
Speaker
fit in with this boring international style and that's just not brazil the way the game has gone is not the way brazil was at its best and how do they bridge that gap it's tough with this set of players they're still they're still right there they're they're right there but at the the highest level the margins have kind of not favored them So you alluded to it there a bit, and I think it's an interesting jumping off point here. When Brazil have found success, obviously there is a before and after for Brazil when it comes to 2014 and what happened against Germany in that semifinal.
00:12:15
Speaker
When Brazil have found success in that after period, it obviously came under the managerial tutelage of Cheech. They had success at the Copa America. They kind of established themselves as clearly the best team in South America for a stretch, but they were fairly defensive. They were low event. They weren't high scoring. It worked.
00:12:33
Speaker
but only to a certain point. Again, quarterfinal exits in 2018 and 2022. Cheech steps down. There's no real replacement for him. Brazil at the time were very adamant that they wanted to continue having a Brazilian manager. So who steps in?
00:12:47
Speaker
The quote-unquote most successful manager in Brazil. It was Fernando Geniz. He tried to do two jobs at once. He did his Fluminense job really well. He won the Liberta Norris for Fluminense in 2023. He didn't do his Brazil job very well.
00:12:59
Speaker
He then leaves the job. Dorival Jr., who had led Flamengo to Liberta Doria's success, has a pretty uninspiring run through the Copa America in 2024. They go out on penalties to win the quarterfinals of that tournament.
00:13:11
Speaker
And finally, after a long flirtation period, Brazil call on Carlo Ancelotti to come in and be named their manager. He's named their manager one year ago. He is the first ever full-time non-Brazilian manager of the Brazilian national team. And I think, Amit, a very key point here is that kind of wasn't a big deal.
00:13:31
Speaker
And for a long period of time, that felt like it was going to be a big deal. Brazil shying away from a Brazilian manager for the Brazilian national team felt like it was going to be this earth-shattering change. And what has happened is Brazil has really failed to produce high-level managers,
00:13:49
Speaker
The best teams in Brazil in this day and age more or less are managed by non-Brazilian managers. The most successful manager in Brazil is a Portuguese manager for Palmeiras, Abel Ferreira.
00:13:59
Speaker
Portuguese managers have led other Brazilian clubs to success. And so it kind of felt like Brazil's sentiment How are we going to keep up with the high level teams? We're going to hire a high level manager who has experience working with these types of star players. And it doesn't matter that he's not Brazilian because we think Carlo Ancelotti is the best man for the job. And I, there wasn't a lot of pushback from that domestically, which I think says a lot about where Brazilian managerial status is at right now. But it also says a lot about Ancelotti and the pedigree that he brings. Yeah.
00:14:32
Speaker
Spot on. And it is is fascinating to think that I think even ah obviously Ancelotti now in hindsight seems like, OK, it makes sense exactly for why why you describe. But even two, three, four years ago, it just does not seem like a thing that would ever be in the playbook. And there's two things I want to add to to your, to your point is one is that, uh, fostering managerial talent from a national perspective is a thing you have to do. It's hard. And not every country does it. We talked about this, um, with the United States and Jesse Marsh and Canada and, I think that there's also some some countries and ways of thinking in the soccer world that permeate. And I think what's in in this in this region, in this area, is the Argentine manager and the Argentine way of thinking. And
00:15:23
Speaker
How different is that? Is it really the World Cup thing? it'ss It's more than the World Cup thing, but there's something there that these guys are all in vogue. And I think Argentines have this reputation as you know being very tactical and you know doing all these things. And Brazilian managers are out of favor. And what I wanted to bring it back to is, what is what is behind that, in your opinion, just that Brazil has kind of failed to to have a real manager manager stable pool for a while now?
00:15:52
Speaker
Yeah, so, I mean there's a whole podcast you can do on it, i think I think. The biggest thing is the club game in Brazil went through a period when the manager that you would think would be manager of Brazil right now would have kind of been coming up through the Brazilian club game. The Brazilian club game went through a period, and it's still in this period in a sense, although it's gotten better and it's improved and it's really gapped the rest of South America.
00:16:16
Speaker
in that basically managers were not given time to do anything. And so it instilled a pretty big incentive to be pragmatic. Because if you weren't pragmatic in eight or 10 games, you might be out of a job. And then you'd go take the next job. And and the list of clubs managed for some of the well-traveled Brazilian managers is very, very long. And so I think the root problem here goes to the club game in Brazil and the expectations that are placed on managers and really the complete lack of ability to build any sort of project.
00:16:47
Speaker
And so then that in turn made Brazilian managers less appealing outside of Brazil. There's no you know Brazilian managers managing at a high level in Europe. There's very few Brazilian managers managing at a high level outside of Brazil.
00:17:00
Speaker
And it just created this vicious cycle of Brazilian managerial talent just kind of tanking. That makes a lot of sense. It's very well put. And I, again, just feeding back in that is it's a soccer crazed country where the yes the results really matter at the club game. And to me, there's a parallel on a lesser scale to Mexico and Mexico's managers and the way that their league is set up. And then the the last point that I just want to...
00:17:25
Speaker
hit on again that you hit on is there's not that exposure of Brazilians managing in other leagues, which is so important. you have the you know The game is so global and the Brazilian players think about every league they play in and every exposure they have. The managers are not doing that and not getting the time to build ideas and the project.
00:17:45
Speaker
This is just fascinating to kind of talk about with Brazil and maybe we should have we missed out on a podcast that we should have done maybe a month ago here. But we're here now and The point that you said that I want to hit is that Ancelotti is brought in to manage this set of personalities. It is big personalities. It is Madrid-esque. He is the Madrid guy. And that is the state of the Brazil pool. is that like I think also some of it is these superstars, the Brazilian superstar...
00:18:17
Speaker
has a a connotation about it of being, you know, larger than the game of needing certain accommodations. And I think if you look at, you know, not every player in the Brazil squad is like this. But if you look at some of the most big Brazil faces, then there is some some truth to that. And that brings us to Vinny and Neymar.
00:18:39
Speaker
Yes, exactly. And so those were the names that Ancelotti was kind of brought in to manage and and take care of. Again, he's been in the job for a year. um He signed an extension through 2030. So it isn't just about this World Cup for Ancelotti. He seems to legitimately be enjoying his time in Brazil. Qualification was never in doubt for Brazil, but it also wasn't very good. They finished fifth in condo qualifying eight wins for draws six losses. Their away form was poor. Their home form largely held up. They were beaten easily twice by Argentina.
00:19:10
Speaker
That's a big deal because that is obviously the measuring stick game in South America for Brazil. And what's interesting about Ancelotti Amit is Brazil had their their squad you know announcement a few days ago. It was a whole big deal at the the Museum of Tomorrow in Rio. There was a whole show. There were interviews. There were music. It was everything. It was quintessentially Brazilian.
00:19:33
Speaker
A lot of World Cup k crup squads kind of name themselves, especially now I think that you have 26 spots and not 23. There aren't a lot of decisions that are made that are, you know, kind of these earth shattering decisions of in or out because the players we're generally talking about are, you know, 21 to 26 in the squad. Those aren't the guys that you're usually counting on to win the World Cup. It didn't really feel like that was the case for Ancelotti. It felt like there were a lot of big decisions. And you alluded to it earlier. The biggest decision was obviously Neymar. Spoiler alert.
00:20:08
Speaker
He's in. He's here. He hasn't played for Brazil since 2023. He's had lots of injuries. He had a very unsuccessful time in Saudi Arabia. He has almost found some form back with Santos in Brazil.
00:20:21
Speaker
That being said, it's not like he's completely bossing the Brazilian league like he did 15 years ago when he kind of came up and and and was vaulted to superstardom. He isn't what he used to be.
00:20:32
Speaker
Can he help this Brazil in 2026? I think is question one. And I think question one B Amit is, is it worth it? Is what you can get from this Neymar in this moment worth everything else that comes with it? And everything else is a lot here.
00:20:50
Speaker
It is a lot. And i think Neymar in 2026 is so hard to buy into him being an effective player at the level that Brazil need to be good. Um,
00:21:05
Speaker
I mean, he's finding form for forsantto Santos. Can we talk about that? Like, what is his what is his level right now? And just before you go, is like I think Neymar is in this conversation with Messi and Ronaldo of the greatest stars of that generation.
00:21:21
Speaker
That was the generation of the 2018 World Cup was like, that's kind of their last prime World Cup 2022. They came back and then it was like, wow, Messi could win because even post prime, he was still good and he the other team around him and Ronaldo.
00:21:36
Speaker
The team was around him and that was bad. And now here we are four years later. Those two guys are we don't know about Messi still still going. Neymar has been out for so long. So even those super duper greatest of all times are just not at the the level anymore. Barely. Neymar has fallen off so much from them.
00:21:58
Speaker
It is such a stretch from where he was, which was kind of out of the game to where he needs to be. i don't know anyone that could convince me.
00:22:09
Speaker
and yeah I know you're not going to qui convince me. You could try. We can try to make the case here that he could be helpful on the field 2026. crazy? No, you're not. Because I think the level that he's showing right now is, ah, he's a pretty good player in Brazil. Like, ah, he can make Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay look pretty bad in the Convo Sudamericana. Guess what? France are a little bit better than Deportivo Recoleta when it comes to the World Cup. And I think the interesting thing with Neymar, Amit, is, okay, is there a role where he could theoretically be effective here? Perhaps. Perhaps. Yeah, I think so. You can talk me into, look, he's still really good with the ball.
00:22:47
Speaker
He is still dangerous. He still draws the attention of defenses. I think that can be useful, but look, the the the physicality is just not there to play a role for 90 minutes consistently with Santos. His big thing was, all right, can I play four games consecutively? Like that was his big test was I want to try and play in four straight matches. Like that's just not the level you should be hitting to make the world cup.
00:23:08
Speaker
But you also have to understand that there was a lot of external pressure on Ancelotti about Neymar. Everybody, well, everybody except Juan Pedro, who didn't make the squad because Neymar is in the squad, wanted Neymar to be in this squad.
00:23:21
Speaker
And it helps Brazil from a marketing perspective. It helps them from a sponsorship perspective. And I think the best case scenario, if you will, here for Brazil, and this really depends on Neymar, which is a big, big ask, is asking Neymar to basically say,
00:23:38
Speaker
I'll take all the attention. I'll take all the spotlight. I'll do all the media commitments. I'll do a couple of tricks and flicks if you put me in for 10 minutes in a game that we're winning. And that will hopefully let everybody else focus on playing and ball.
00:23:52
Speaker
The question is, just don't think that's what's going to be the case here. the case you just made and then we get to the question is it worth it i enchilada is a smart guy like this guy has done done it with the biggest personalities knows what he's doing there's a reason why he maybe he brought namor in and why he left out a just very flatly better player That has nothing wrong with Joel Pedro. I don't think the vibes were wrong with Joel Pedro. Someone had to like fall on the sword and be left out.
00:24:28
Speaker
And exactly what you said, just makes sense. And I think this team, this Brazil team needs some protection from the circus. Yeah. That is to the state of everyone else. Which is a weird way to think of it because they're leaning into the circus. But yeah, it's it's so funny. and And this is a hopeful reading and it could go, it could go wrong, but like, I don't think, I truly don't think Neymar is doing important minutes other than, Hey, we're down a goal. And like, it's the breaking case of emergency. And at that point,
00:25:03
Speaker
I mean, I guess he is a fine option, but like outside of that role, I don't think he's doing anything other than what you said, which is the bits guy, which is fine. If he's the bits guy, he is just player 26. And if player 26 makes everyone happy, then, then, then it's a fine use of player 26 is my thing, I guess. But player 26 has to buy into being player 26. And I think that's the whole, that's the question of everything. And I i don't know what that's going to be.
00:25:30
Speaker
Yeah, what but is Neymar expecting to be player 10, 11, 12? I don't think if he's anywhere couched in reality or logic, he can't because he can simply look and say, look, I can't do the things that I used to be able to do at the high level. like The moment that Neymar had in 2022, we talked about this. Neymar had his moment in that game against Croatia. finally felt like he'd hed done his thing for Brazil and then they they gave up equalizer. They lost on penalties and that moment kind of slipped away.
00:25:58
Speaker
that Neymar isn't walking through this door. and And there's been a lot of injuries and surgeries and muscle issues and and torn ligaments and everything since then to to suggest that it's not happening. But the thing here, Amit, is, all right, Neymar's in the squad. We've answered that question.
00:26:12
Speaker
But there's still decisions all over this Brazil team. And this squad is, I think, very interestingly constructed is a kind way of saying it. So we'll start in goal.
00:26:24
Speaker
A decision for Ancelotti. Does he start Allison, who has been out since March? He's getting close to coming back at Liverpool, but there's a big question there. Ederson has kind of fallen off the face of the earth in Turkey. He has not been great.
00:26:35
Speaker
And so Ancelotti maybe thought, okay, I'll go with Bento. He's playing in Saudi Arabia. He's been good. Bento also had a horrendous run of form. He went viral for a terrible goal that he allowed recently. And so Ancelotti's forced to call in 38-year-old Weverton at Gremio,
00:26:51
Speaker
who was in the Brazil squad in 2022, has World Cup experience, just to kind of cover himself and say, hey, I need a guy who can stop shots. And and if Allison doesn't come back to full health, and if Ederson continues to be in wherever he is, I need to call in Weberton and and have a guy that I can put back there. And i can say, all right, you can't really play the ball, but you can stop the ball. And that's what I need. So that's the first question.
00:27:11
Speaker
Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhães will be the central defense. There's no doubt about that, but they're going to need those two guys to stay healthy and not suspended because I think behind them, it's a big question mark. Bremer is probably the third central defense option. Leo Pereira at Flamengo is a perfectly fine central defender, but he's certainly not at the level of those two guys.
00:27:30
Speaker
There's a lot of it riding on Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhães, not just in defense, but also I think Brazil are going to count on those guys to be set piece threats the other way. it's so crucial to everything Brazil do. Brazil can go as far as Gabriel and Marquinhos can take them. That's, that's the truth of it. These guys get hurt. Their ceiling is massively capped. Marquinhos is basically playing like 10 games a year for PSG, which is very, very dicey that he can hold up for this whole tournament. And maybe they can rotate in, you know, Bremer when they need to, to to manage Marquinhos minutes for the knockout round.
00:28:06
Speaker
But yeah, the set pieces is also going to be crucial to the way Brazil play because they have these two players. So I just like, i couldn't, I think if you, the the most important center back pairing in this tournament is, is so clearly here between the drop off. And because,
00:28:23
Speaker
This whole team, like playing ugly, playing the style that Brazil might need to get through. I think they have to lean into having the best center back duo in the tournament. That is, I think on the field, if these guys are both healthy and playing well, they can say that. And like that could be their calling card.
00:28:40
Speaker
And those two are even more crucially important because you look outside and there are massive question marks and Brazil have had fullback issues for a while now, which is crazy to think because what made Brazil so good for all those years was they had the best fullbacks in the world. They invented the marauding, attacking fullback that was dangerous. That's not these guys. Wesley at Roma can play left or right. Ancelotti has to figure out if he wants him to play left or right. The second and third choice fullbacks here are Danilo and Alexandro, who are both up there in years playing at Flamengo, the biggest club in Brazil, the best club in South America. They are good players, but absolutely Absolutely going to be targets for high level European teams.
00:29:20
Speaker
One of them is going to start, I think, alongside Wesley. I don't know which one it's going to be. It could vary on a game by game basis. And I mean, the only other fullback in the entirety of the squad is Douglas Santos, who's at Zenit in Russia.
00:29:32
Speaker
This is something that when we talked about earlier, there are separating points between Brazil and the high level teams. This position is a massive circle of what those differences are.
00:29:44
Speaker
It's just you're just right. Like those guys are not at the the Champions League, even the Europa League level for one of them and Wesley. But like this is a problem. Now, it's it's great when you have Marquinhos and Gabriel to cover cover up everything. So as as you said, it just doubles down how important they are. I mean, this has been a problem for Brazil for a long time. We've seen it in qualifying and this is going to be a problem for them when they get to a team like France or Spain that has the elite wingers. But the biggest concern for Brazil, I think, is it might not even be France or Spain. It might be Morocco on day one that is asking those sorts of questions. And if that's the case, then five alarm fire. This is not in a good spot. And you mentioned the midfielders of it.
00:30:27
Speaker
There's a lot riding on Bruno Guimarães. I feel like he is right. Like you could just kind of... lump him in with that Marquinhos Gabriel and kind of make a ah triangle in the midfield and say, there's a lot here because alongside him is probably Casemiro, who is not at the level that he used to be.
00:30:42
Speaker
He used to be that key player in defensive midfield for Brazil. ah Lucas Paqueta is probably going to get a midfield start in a more attacking role, but then there's just not depth either here. You lose Guimarães or Casemiro and you're looking and all right, we've got Fabinho who's playing in Saudi Arabia.
00:30:58
Speaker
Or we've got Danilo, who is a good young player that I like, but is also fighting with his club at Botafogo and looking to to force a move to a bigger side in Brazil. The midfield is also a big question mark.
00:31:10
Speaker
Yeah, you're 100 spot on that Bruno Guimaraes is like the other cannot lose player. The drop off is so massive because at this point, Casemiro isn't even a holding midfielder. yeah is He's kind of had a great resurgent season at Manchester United.
00:31:25
Speaker
He's leaving at the end of the year in that he is no longer a defensive player. He is basically a free box crasher. He just kind of joins the attack and he's helped their attack as a late, like, you know, gets shots up guy. And he's a great set piece threat. That's also you're circling.
00:31:41
Speaker
Okay. We've got Marquinhos, Gabriel Casemiro. We can actually do some stuff, but defensively he's not helping. And Lucas Paquita is like not helping. Like he's an attacking midfielder. He's an attack midfielder. So everything is riding on Bruno Gamares, who I think is not underrated. I think he's just a great midfielder at Newcastle, like very good club in the Super League and the Premier League. He's great. Like, I think he can get this Brazil team to where they need to go. But the margins are so thin on him and the center backs, like doing everything defensively and just being like...
00:32:17
Speaker
you know, even on the ball, good stars, because Casemiro doesn't really progress. He just kind of goes and hangs out. Paketao will progress a little bit. You just, you wish you had a better second midfielder that could do more defense, and you wish you had a better creative midfielder than Paketao, who's fine.
00:32:35
Speaker
Yeah, and you wish you also had like three other midfielders that you could call upon if something happens to the guys. So, I mean, there's really no depth in defense. There's not a lot of depth in the midfielder. Attackers, well, there's nine of them in the squad. And that's where the squad construction is just super interesting because, okay, there's nine attackers, but two of the attackers, their name is on the team sheet and it's not coming off. Right. That's Vinicius Jr. and Rafinha. Those guys are are starting ah on either wing.
00:33:00
Speaker
Vinicius Jr. has been in the tabloids a lot, seemingly every other day. He's he's broken up with his his Brazilian girlfriend, Virginia. It's a whole big deal. As my wife consistently informs me, oh, did you see what happened with Vinicius Jr.? I'm thinking, oh, what happened on the field? It's like, no, he broke up with with Virginia.
00:33:14
Speaker
Like, oh, OK, sure, cool. Whatever you say, Ka. He's still probably Brazil's best attacking player. There's a lot riding on him in this World Cup. Rafinha, admit, has been great for Barcelona. He's the other huge piece in attack. Those guys are are starting on the wings. There's no question there.
00:33:29
Speaker
But again, it kind of feels like this Brazil side is pinning its hopes on, you know, one, two, three, four, five guys to kind of lift up the other six. Spot on. And that's, we'll see what they get at strikers we're about to talk about. Yeah.
00:33:43
Speaker
Vinny and Rafinha at their peak are two of the best wingers in the world. If not, they could be in, and on a given day, they could be the two best wingers in the world. Vinny has had a very, very frustrating season at Real Madrid. I think he's at the center of the beef with Mbappe, with Xabi Alonso, who left. He doesn't want to defend.
00:34:02
Speaker
um It's been a mess. I think he's kind of, had a lost season Real Madrid have had a bad season the truth is though he is so so good is that he he could just lump the ball to him and say get the ball up the field by yourself and he'll do it or you can say be the finisher we get you the ball when we get out the field and then you score for us and he could do that sometimes he can do both he's he's electric and he is kind of the guy on one wing that is going to do everything for him he could solve defenses when they're
00:34:33
Speaker
on when they're when they're stuck and then if you play open space that's what you see that with Madrid they want you to they want you to come up on a high line you turn them over and then he's gone so I think brazil Brazil's best game model is being against the ball and having Vinny and Rafinha in transition both of these guys are super fast take on artists that also get a lot of shots so I'm very optimistic about them but Even though the other attackers are good, there's the the whole game model doesn't work without these two. Again, to the piece of what you said, the hopes are on five or six guys.
00:35:08
Speaker
And so then the attacking question becomes, all right, who is the third piece? And I think also kind of what is the third piece? Like, what are you looking for out of that third attacking player? Mateos Cunha is an option. Obviously, Endrick, if you're looking for something resembling maybe kind of a more traditional nine, he's found some form at Lyon. Neymar in a false nine role, which is probably the only role he can play with Brazil at this point with any sort of effectiveness on a high level. Like Neymar can't be a high level winger at this point. There's just absolutely nothing going back the other way. I don't think he's quite tricky, quickie enough to do it on the wing. I think in a kind of combo false 90 role, you can maybe talk me into there being a role there, but to start a match a lot. Martinelli, Igor Tiago, Ryan are also floating around here.
00:35:52
Speaker
What do you think Ancelotti does with this third attacking position? And could we see like five different guys play that role in this tournament? 100%. could do a lot of things. I think you... I don't know if he'll do this. I think you want to play a striker. You want a guy that can get service and like be a real number nine. um And that's Igor Tiago. And again, that's where it's funny. He brought nine attackers. But the next best number nine after Igor Tiago is Endrick, who is like still you know putting it together. And that's where you lost Joel Pedro and you lost Richarlison, who...
00:36:28
Speaker
you know, are just very good number nines in the Premier League. I am baffled. Yeah, and obviously Rodrigo being injured also factors into the attacking conversation here, right? Like that's another piece that you don't have.
00:36:41
Speaker
Yeah. and And look, Vinny and Rafinha both can be a striker. They both can be the furthest guy of the field and their verticality with their speed lets you them do number nine things. Vinny likes to play the second striker role. So like they can be in the middle and then you can use wingers. And that's where I think.
00:36:59
Speaker
Mateus Cunha is maybe the best player out of this group. He's very, you know, big money to Manchester United. He's a very smart player, can play anywhere on the front line. He can be the striker. He could be a winger. I think if you have a Vinny, Rafinha, Cunha front line, you are unleashing havoc on defenses. And Ancelotti is not going to tell them what to do. He's saying, you're three smart guys, go figure it out.
00:37:23
Speaker
That is appealing for Brazil. But when you need the real number nine, it's got to be Igor Tiago. I think those are the two buttons we'll see the most from Ancelotti. I'm excited about Ryan. I think he could be a good depth piece here. And I also think Martinelli is a perfect depth attacker to spell legs and to press like heck when he comes in the game, really make it tough for defenses. And if you need rotation, like, yep, okay, let's sit Vinny for 60 minutes and have him come in for 30, either way with Rafinha. Martinelli is very effective at running, especially in...
00:37:56
Speaker
Again, what's the model for Brazil? It's being difficult against the ball, and that's where Martinelli can come in and loosen the game up for maybe Cunha comes off the bench for the last 30 minutes or Ryan or whatever. So Ancelotti's going to have to figure this out, but there's there's enough pieces here to to to make it work. Yeah.
00:38:16
Speaker
So we've spent a lot of time on Brazil here, and I think it was good time spent. I think we had good conversations. I think we dug deep into the squad. I like the philosophical stuff that we dealt with. It all comes down to this, I think of it. Are you buying that there's something here that can end with a World Cup?
00:38:31
Speaker
Because I don't think I am. I think the depth is the the biggest worry. I think in five knockout games, the fact that Marquinhos is going to hold up, that Bruno Guimaraes, who is, I don't want to call him injury prone, but he's missed time for Newcastle this year. Those two guys holding up the whole way is just dicey. And maybe there's a yellow card and and the drop-offs are so big. And also I think at the highest level levels, like Brazil is coming up short against an electric attack. Yeah.
00:39:01
Speaker
Now, that being said, if they stay healthy, they are physical nasty team that can kind of play the low event soccer you need to win knockouts. And...
00:39:17
Speaker
Ancelotti is a vibes monster. I yeah think you have to say Marquinhos and Gabriel are vibes mentality monsters. I think Vinny is a mentality monster, despite being a head case at times. Sometimes those guys are like the guys. Remember, same guy that won all the Champions League with Real Madrid. There is some of that aura that...
00:39:41
Speaker
Ancelotti was brought to tap into yeah to play knockout football to do a bit of the siege mentality to do a bit of the uh Spain is doing like you know the guy is drawing innate diagra ornate diagrams on the board and they're coming up with new passing patterns that that we haven't even thought of and oh France is you know got the craziest front line of the world and he goes that's great Gabriel Vinny Rafinha go win me the game Like, and he just raises his eyebrow and you just, you don't know how it happens. And like, listen, it's a little bit preposterous, but in a world cup where it's open enough, you get to a quarter final, you play three games that are coin flips and you're the vibes guy. Sometimes you win. So like, i do think Brazil can win this world cup. It is funny. Let's talk about it. They have surpassed Argentina in the odds at fourth.
00:40:32
Speaker
What say you? just no, like, no, like I'm is is not as ne to me no, I'm not buying it because like Brazil shouldn't be the vibe. Like Brazil shouldn't be counting on vibes to win the world cup. They should be better than that. But again, that's a whole different conversation. I,
00:40:50
Speaker
I see that Brazil about Brazil for another 20 minutes is the thing you're getting from us. Yeah, we could. That's absolutely. But let's talk about the team they will play in the first game. And that's Morocco, which I think is one of the games of the group stage. Seventh World Cup appearance for Morocco. Third straight. They had a dark horse run in the semifinals in 2022.
00:41:07
Speaker
They emit look to be a very stable national team, a great project, lots of success at the youth levels, a trusted manager. Their qualifying campaign was the definition of breezy. Eight played, eight won, 22 scored two against, never challenged.
00:41:19
Speaker
Then came a probably ill-timed home AFCON, which happened just six months ago. Morocco were decent, though not high-flying in the group stage. They picked up steam through the knockout round.
00:41:30
Speaker
They eventually eliminated Nigeria on penalties in the semifinal. They made the final against Senegal, and then they lost it in heartbreaking, controversial fashion. Brahim Diaz awarded a penalty at the end of regular time that he then missed.
00:41:43
Speaker
Did he mean to miss it? You can go listen to that podcast that we did all that time ago. That cost Waleed Ragagwe, who was that trusted manager, his job. Then amid Morocco actually won the final because Senegal left and protested the penalty decision. We don't need to get into all of that. the The important thing is regardless of whether they actually won or lost that match, they lost their manager. That much is certain. Mohamed Wabi is the new manager. he worked in the Andalek youth setup. He's a Belgian Moroccan dual national.
00:42:10
Speaker
Worked in the Moroccan youth setup. Won the 2025 World Cup. He's noted for 4-3-3, 3-4-3, pressing, countering front foot, has gotten a lot of praise for his approach to the mental aspect. I think that feels significant for this Morocco team.
00:42:26
Speaker
ah The cast, I think, is similar to the cast in 2022. It's obviously similar to the cast they had in AFCON. But, Amit, crucially, there are some great young guys coming into the setup, too. They have experience with Uwabi.
00:42:38
Speaker
There's a lot riding on getting this managerial decision right. But this team, if everything goes right, i think can win a World Cup. They're close. I don't know. I think that this is interesting, right? I think they might be in the top 10 in the world, right? they they They're right around there, I think, on Talon. And so certainly a top 10-ish team can win a World Cup. What to me is interesting like narrative-wise is they were a dark horse in 2022. Absolutely, they they just were they were. They came out of nowhere. They came out of nowhere, an African team making the semifinal. like That just never happened.
00:43:13
Speaker
And the question is, are they a dark horse... type team now or is the expectations so high that they're not that and the other thing is it's just unless you're luca modric and croatia it's impossible to dark horse twice like that's just not how it works you don't lightning doesn't strike twice they have done everything to basically be like that wasn't lightning that was us ascending it looked like a dark horse then but really that was our coming out party because
00:43:44
Speaker
this entire federation, I think, is when you look at the modern face of FIFA, what FIFA wants to tout of development success stories. Listen, Morocco, the Spanish and French influences are so strong, and they basically have mimicked those countries' pathways, and they send their players in their pathways, and the talent pipeline, as you're about to discuss, is top 10, top 5 in the world. Their youth results are outrageous. So,
00:44:12
Speaker
They're not really a dark horse now anymore, in my opinion. I think this is ah like this is a team that expects to be in the business end. Is that harder now when the expectations are on you and you're not surprising anyone? It's a lot harder to defend the perch when everyone's throwing their best punch at you.
00:44:30
Speaker
Fascinating team. But the pieces are there for this to just continue to grow for Morocco, right? Like we're going to talk about this team. The amount of young 25 or younger year old players in this team is, as you said, outrageous. You look towards the World Cup four years from now, and that's not the goal right now for Morocco, but four years from now, a World Cup that will be partially played on Moroccan soil.
00:44:52
Speaker
They're going be factors for a long time because of all the work their federation has done. Yasin Boudou is the undisputed starter in goal. Big penalty saves against Nigeria. He's the number one shirt. Atraf Hakimi, Merzrawi, the outside backs, their ability to get forward, their ability to defend, their ability to simply be high-level players, all of it is important and all of it underpins what makes Morocco so good and so dangerous.
00:45:15
Speaker
Yeah, Hakimi is the best right back in the world at times. Obviously, he's recovering from an injury. He's expected to play in the Champions League final, which is after the time we are recording this podcast in late May. I expect him, if he plays in that game, to be at full strength for Morocco. um Masrari isn't quite as elite, but like...
00:45:35
Speaker
Because they have such good two outside backs, it helps their attackers so much, and they can shut down teams opposing attackmen. It's a weird way to have your best players there, but it's a very, very unique tactical thing that makes them very hard to game plan against.
00:45:55
Speaker
In central defense, Naif Awred is a fitness concern. We'll see if he makes it. Roman Saiz has retired, but Isha Jopp, who's at Fulham, recently switched allegiances. He could have played for a host of countries, but France was was one of the kind of highest touted there. He started in both March friendlies. I think he gets a spot in central defense.
00:46:11
Speaker
A lot of options for that second spot. I don't think it really matters who it is between Riyad, Halal, or Asala Edian. ah they They all kind of got experience in March. um Lots of young defenders here too, kind of behind those guys. But the midfield they made is just oodling with options. Sofjan Abrabat, who had been really good for Varad, didn't make the team in March. I'm not sure if he has a role with Alwi. They haven't named their squad yet.
00:46:35
Speaker
Let's see if he's in it. But in holding midfield, you've got Neil Al-Anui, who's 24 at Roma. Samir Elmorabet, who's 19 at Strasburg, has been absolutely flying. They also have a more experienced holding option as far as Mohamed Rabi Arant, who's 31, playing domestically for ASFAR. Also have a brand new option in Ayub Bouadi, who is the Ligue 1 Young Player of the Year nominee, recently committed to Morocco after he didn't make the French World Cup team.
00:47:04
Speaker
He's a box-to-box midfielder. He is super... Super, super exciting. They have a lot that they can throw at you holding, and we haven't even gotten to the attacking options yet. Yeah, this is going to look different than it did in 2022, than it did at the AFCON this year even.
00:47:19
Speaker
i think we don't quite know what to expect the combo that we're going to get here. I mean, this Bojati is perhaps a game-changing, could be one of like the breakout players of the tournament. i wouldn't even know what he looks like. doesn't even have a cap for Morocco yet, right? hasn't even been in the set-up.
00:47:37
Speaker
how are we supposed to project how he comes in? And I think if you're getting, the more dynamism you're getting, we we know Morocco is is pretty solid. And I think El Anoui at Roma is is a good guy for solid. But if you know the other guys are like more than solid, you're getting more than you expect, then this team might be level closer to the top five than we're expecting. um Because you're penciling in the fullbacks and the attackers who are good. This to me is ah one of the biggest...
00:48:06
Speaker
things I need to see in the first three games that will determine a lot that I don't, that we don't even know. In attack, Brahim Diaz is the headline name. I think it's a very fair question. Where is his head at after everything that happened in January? Again, I talked about it with the manager, Uwabi. He's noted for what he has done mentally with players, with young players.
00:48:28
Speaker
You have to feel like a lot of the reason he was given this job was for that. And Morocco getting the best high-level play out of Brahim Diaz kind of feels like that might determine where their ceiling is.
00:48:41
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, at his peak, he is Real Madrid superstar level talent. They need him they need him to to be at that. So I don't i think I'm with you. i'm In my mind, I've kind of expected that despite whatever's happened, he's found a way to flush it. like I just think this he he this this is his chance for redemption. like And he has everything riding on him. i think he kind of embraces that role. But I i don't know if I can believe that 100% until I see it.
00:49:11
Speaker
And then as far as other attacking options, it's just so many young, exciting players. You got the Lola Canousi's 22 at Stuttgart, Ryan Buinda, 20 at PSV, Osama Targaline, 23 at Feyenoord, Chamside Tabli, 21 at Sunderland, Abdel Al-Azuli, 24 at Betis. There are a lot of different bodies that are really technical and really good that can complement and interchange in all of the fun stuff that makes for good football.
00:49:38
Speaker
These guys are all exciting. I don't know how they're going to fit them on the field. I'm excited for El Canoos at Stuttgart. We've seen him before, just an electric direct attacker. I think Morocco are going to have options at playing in in transition, but also, you know, breaking down blocks. That's on all El Canoos. And I'm also excited to see if Usama Targolin at Feyenoord gets in the game. Again, you know, it's hard to evaluate these guys in the Dutch league.
00:50:05
Speaker
like Bonita and Targulian, but I think if he gets in, could really, you know, spark the, spark the attack a little bit and take on some defenders. And that's where Morocco, you know, they kind of, they could build momentum with the ball, the way they get in into rhythm. it It is very Spanish in a way they, they do it. So like these guys could, someone could pop here.
00:50:26
Speaker
So we've talked about how their fullbacks might be their best attacking options. We've talked about all of the young attacking midfield wing players. They have, we've talked about how they can jump a level in, in holding midfield. We talked about salinity the fence. We've talked about a high level goalkeeper.
00:50:40
Speaker
The one thing we haven't talked about yet, Amit is what they're going to do with their striker ish type players. And if there is a spot where Morocco aren't just ripping out young, exciting players, it might be in a traditional striker role. And that's going to be, I think, a big question here for them. So you've got Sufjan Rahami. He's 29, all in, dynamic, quick, not at the highest level, but has played plenty for Morocco. Ayub Elkabi is 32 years old. He's another target guy.
00:51:08
Speaker
In March, they experimented a little bit with Ismail Saibari as a false nine. There's a lot of talent here. The question is, how does it gel? How do they respond to everything that happened? They em admit, I think, are going to get the ball into fun places. I think we can pretty securely say that that's going to happen.
00:51:24
Speaker
Can they finish once they get it there? And it doesn't really matter who it is, but they're to need somebody to put the ball in the back of the net. That's tough question. I think that's their upper limit. That's going to be a problem for them if they need to get past a team at ah and in a big moment in the tournament. I know I think we've seen Okabe. He is kind of your plan B target guy. But sometimes if you got a bunch of wingers and crossers, like play the target guy and you can survive and he doesn't even need to score. He needs to set up other guys playing off of him.
00:51:53
Speaker
let's Let's see. I mean, i don't know what you expect from Rahimi. I'm not counting him to be a star, but Saibari, I think it works if they're going to be slick, but against a team like Brazil, the slick can get you goals. Like it's a question mark. I think it is fair to say. So I'm that, that to me is a problem, but the ceiling here, if they can get something from that and if all of these young pieces coalesce, man, it's so, so high.
00:52:20
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, then it goes to like, can they catch Brazil in the first game and set up their bracket the right way? And even then, if it is Netherlands in that round of 32, if they finish second in this group, I mean, talk about proof of concept. This team absolutely could scalp Netherlands. Like that's a not perfect team. So this is this is the level for them. They're going to be in high level games and have the answers and have some flaws, but like they'll be right there with another team.
00:52:48
Speaker
I it's the, the AFCON was frustrating, I think for them, because I think they should have maybe passed that test with flying colors, but that game was, was crazy. I do think a more physical team can bully them a little bit. We saw Senegal bully them a little bit. They weren't worse than Senegal, but like, are the Netherlands a team that you can get or, or, and Brazil who will try to bully you or can you quiet their attackers and play that game into a bit of the way you like it?
00:53:16
Speaker
I need to see this team. I'm not quite as hot as you are, but I could be convinced. I'm very, very excited for it. I think I said it a lot on this podcast already. Brazil, Morocco, I just, I'm going to be so here for it. All right, the other two teams in this group, let's start with Scotland. I mean, their ninth World Cup appearance, but this is their first appearance since 1998. They've never made it out of the group stage. They had a crazy dramatic end to qualifying.
00:53:39
Speaker
They finished with 13 points, four wins, one draw, and one loss in a group of Denmark, Greece, and Belarus. But they worked themselves into a last-day head-to-head matchup with Denmark after Denmark inexplicably dropped points against Belarus after Scotland had inexplicably dropped points against Greece.
00:53:55
Speaker
They knocked off Denmark 4-2 on the final day of qualifying. It was such a scene at Hampton Park. Kieran Tierney with a Thunder goal to make it 3-2 and then just the 60-yard cherry on top from Kenny McLean. They didn't have a great campaign at Euro 2024, but they Euro 2024.
00:54:12
Speaker
not out of the group stage where they draw against Switzerland and then losses to Hungary and were throttled by Germany in the opening game. That's the level here. Amit, they're a third tier European team. They can kind of hang with the second tier European team, but they're just a fun, fun story. And they bring a lot to a world cup as far as pageantry, color and great national anthems are concerned.
00:54:35
Speaker
100%. team is energetic. The way they play is no nonsense, like kind of throwback Scottish football, but they're decent at it. I think that's the thing that they're very relentless and they have enough attacking players. I don't think they're as good as the top two teams here. I think you're kind of trying to punch, kind of trying to place them in Europe. I think they're better than Czech Republic. I think they're better than Bosnia, but I think they're going to be worse than your Switzerland and Europe.
00:55:00
Speaker
Oops, Denmark's not here, but I think they're little worse than Denmark, who they scouted. And that's the point, is that you know they play to that level. They're right at the edge of Tier 2, Tier 3. And this team, you know they have kind of an unorthodox star in Scott McTominay, who is their 10 crazy striker, weird goal-scoring guy, and that he has all sorts of inventive finishes. But everything around them is just kind of a bunch of guys who are going to run hard and are...
00:55:29
Speaker
at the level enough of playing competent direct football so that's a decent recipe and they play a tricky style in the modern game in that as you said it's this throwback to this other era of 4-4-2 punt it long the midfield is only kind of there to take up space and and run at the other defense and that sort of thing they showed a lot of patience with steve clark their manager he's been in charge since 2019 I took over ahead of the the World Cup cycle for 2020 in Euro in 2022. It didn't go well. They missed the Euro 2022. They lost to to Belgium and Russia. Wow, Russia playing international games. That must have been a really long time ago. They got the playoffs for the 2022 World Cup, but lost in a semifinal to Ukraine at home.
00:56:12
Speaker
They did get to the Euro 24. He's the longest tenured manager in Scottish history by games played. He is a good man manager and he is kind of committed to this style it. And what's interesting about this Scotland team is, all right, you mentioned McTominay. He's probably their best player.
00:56:27
Speaker
Their two next best players might play at the same position, which feels a little unfortunate. Yeah, that's Andy Robertson and Kieran Tierney, who are both kind of left backs. you You've seen Tierney as a right back. I'm not sure they can play them both. And their right back position is OK.
00:56:44
Speaker
And so that's odd. But its ah it is funny versus like Morocco, and another team with two good fullbacks. That is kind of one thing that Scotland has. i think everyone else is just kind of...
00:56:55
Speaker
playing the system like as simply and as unimaginatively as possible so that you just get the ball in the box and you keep coming and in a sense when you have physical runners that is the the hallmark of this team the rest of their front line can do that you're going to talk about well let's go through you want to go through the roster and we can talk about the the defense first yeah if if you're going run out a 43 year old goalkeeper i think you have to start here with with craig gordon Yeah, he's at hearts. He's been their their reliable set of hands for such a long time. He started the last two qualifiers. Now they experimented in the friendlies with the the second and third goalkeepers on the roster, Angus Gunn, backup at Forest, Liam Kelly at Rangers.
00:57:36
Speaker
I think it's going to be Gordon for the for the trust and the vibes. And I don't love that for a team that's in this role, but like it will be a great, like it's a great storyline. Yeah, but super old goalkeeper is just such a World Cup character. Like you got to have a super old goalkeeper at a World Cup.
00:57:52
Speaker
Yeah. And so maybe that'll be a liability. Maybe not. I mean, goalkeepers are are very, very hard to evaluate. Let's let's see on that. In terms of the defense, we talked about Robertson and Tierney.
00:58:03
Speaker
We'll see if they get both them on the field. Right back is decent. They've got Aaron Hickey. He's at Brentford. He's not necessarily a starter there, but he he can play the role. And then their backups are a little bit worse. But I think the fullbacks here are going to be fine.
00:58:16
Speaker
Center backs are okay. Scott McKenna is at Dinamo Zagreb. Grant Hanley is at Hibernian in the Scottish Premiership. I think these guys are nothing to write home about. I think this is exactly who you dream of when you think of a Scottish 4-4-2. Like,
00:58:31
Speaker
just They're going head the ball away. They're not going to play with the ball too much, but they're decent physical. I don't think they're going to necessarily get overpowered by a striker in this group. Maybe Igor Tiago is licking his lips at trying to bully them. But outside of that, I don't think there's a striker here that's necessarily going to trouble them.
00:58:48
Speaker
But you certainly don't want to see them stranded in space from a Scottish perspective. No. And that is that is the the thing about this team, even though it's an – we're saying old school, 4-4-2. It is not a park the bus type team. Right. um They like – Because because their defense is bad, even though you would think they play defensive, they're trying to score goals like they want to three goals in this game. And so they they they are going to be a little exposed. But if they just sat back and defended, I think they would just be drawing debt is is kind of the calculus that Steve Clark has settled on.
00:59:23
Speaker
And so to be able to do that, a lot comes to what they can do as far as midfield runners are concerned, right? They need that midfield and they have a lot of leggy type of guys who can run around and crash into people and kind of keep the ball moving to prevent them from getting pinned back into where these guys are having to do anything other than, like you said, heading the ball away and smashing it long and letting the midfielders and forwards chase it.
00:59:47
Speaker
Correct. And that's where Ryan Christie, center mid, great energy runner guy, had a great season at Bournemouth. Lewis Ferguson at Bologna, he's fine. He's, I think, a very solid center mid, definitely of the level, I think, of you know a solid Serie A guy. He's fast enough, too. They're not going to get exposed in the center. And then you're on your wings, you've got John McGinn still going at Asson Villa. He's ah a little bit older, but like...
01:00:11
Speaker
Just like what you think of of a Premier League pressing winger, defensive winger, guy who runs, guy who moves the ball, not going to be elite, but he he gets in positions. And then Ben Gann and Doak is kind of their one X factor. I think ah he's 19.
01:00:27
Speaker
He's not starting at Bournemouth. He's fast. He can dribble. The rest of his game has not really come along, but if Scotland could get some kind of X factor performance from him, he's the young live wire that maybe could help. But regardless, as you said, you've got four guys that are going to press the issue, physically press the other team and just get the ball at the field and win and win it back. Like this is a very, a very fun way to unleash these guys and protect the back line.
01:00:57
Speaker
And so then the attack question comes into it. And Che Adams is is obviously the most talented attacking option here, but he's not necessarily the hold up mixer ball type guy for Scotland. And they have those hold up mixer ball type guys in Lauren Shanklin, Lyndon Dykes, like Lyndon Dykes is the classic. Oh, we're down to goal. He's going to get in there and somehow there's going four defenders draped on him and he's just going to look to hold it up and and and play it down.
01:01:23
Speaker
Can they figure out a way to get Che Adams to play off of players like that? Or is this going to be an issue for them? I think at the core of it, the model works better with a, with a nine, a holdup number nine or target number nine. Adams is more of a runner number nine, but I think you need him to run for 60 minutes to just tire the other team out and get to the end of the game where then you toss and help. And then he stays on as a second striker trying to work off of them. He's just, he's just a level better than Lawrence Shankland and Lyndon Dykes. Like he is, I think he has to start, but I don't necessarily know if the full on mixer ball works.
01:02:04
Speaker
we'll see he's a good player i think they that's the truth of it so much of this entire game state for scotland is get the ball in the box and hope it bounces to mctominay which is just such a funny way to play but like it is how they play they're playing paintball in there right throw it in there and mctominay just kind of floats and finds it and scores however he does it Yeah. And so listen, 4-4-2 team has a big guy that you hope the ball fall falls to.
01:02:32
Speaker
Wonder how you think this team thinks it's going to score goals. Set pieces is 100%. This is an old school Steve Clark. They got to be good at set pieces. And there's some of that Brentford DNA in there. There's long throws. Yeah, we get the long throw. that That's how set pieces we are. We're long throwing it, baby.
01:02:47
Speaker
Yeah, we've got to be long throwing it. And then also you think of Robertson, great crosser, Tierney, great crosser, like this is a ah team that does not want to do things when the ball in play, but they want to create as much chaos in your box as possible.
01:03:04
Speaker
And they're fun and they're just, they are obviously super committed and the 100% buy-in here is great. There will obviously be tremendous Scottish support. Their third group stage game is in Miami, Amit. And so when you put Scottish people under the sun for an extended period of time, they generally get very, very red. So by the time that third group stage game comes around in Miami against Brazil, ah there's going to be some very red faces for our Scottish friends and supporters. The first game against Haiti is absolutely huge, right? They need to beat Haiti and probably by multiple goals to give themselves some some sliding space against Brazil and Morocco. How they approach the Morocco and the Brazil game is very interesting because like you said, they can't really just park the bus and survive.
01:03:48
Speaker
How'd they beat Denmark to get here? They beat them 4-2, right? Goals are probably going to happen in these games. They're going to look to score against those teams and it makes for an interesting clash of styles. And that's where, what happens when Scotland tries to go at Brazil and Morocco? Maybe maybe evend not Brazil, but what happens when they go at Morocco? can they Can they dislodge anything from Morocco's you know more silky style? What happens when you you go up against you know the...
01:04:14
Speaker
the mixer ball. So it's fun. I think it will be kind of some much watch must watch stuff. I think let's see after the first game exactly how serious they are. If they put, if they beat Haiti by two or three, I will say, okay, this team is serious. If they're struggling, if they lose, obviously the whole thing is in trouble.
01:04:32
Speaker
And make sure you tune in five minutes before kickoff because Flower of Scotland. Ah, goosebumps. Love me some bagpipes. The fourth and final team in this group is perhaps the best story of the World Cup. It's Haiti making their second ever appearance and their first since 1974. It is a massive accomplishment given the fact that Haiti have not played an international match on home soil in over five years. Everything going on in Haiti, humanitarian crisis, gang violence, and people displacement. Obviously, there's there's limited health care, travel advisory. It's very hard to get to Haiti from the U.S. s or get from Haiti to the U.S. There are comments by the U.S. president about Haiti.
01:05:11
Speaker
This is a fantastic story that they are here. It is a great unifying moment for Haiti as a country, for Haitians around the world, not just in Haiti itself. They qualified here by getting through the second round alongside Curacao. They dumped out a couple of other Caribbean nations in St. Lucia, Aruba, and Barbados. Then they went three, two, and one in a tough-ish group to get ahead of Honduras, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.
01:05:36
Speaker
They beat Nicaragua twice. That was huge. And they beat Costa Rica. That was huge. They pulled a point against Costa Rica. That was also huge. They got a decisive 2-0 win over Nicaragua on the final day to get here. They weren't very good at the Gold Cup in 2025. They went out of the group stage with a draw in two losses to the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
01:05:53
Speaker
um They drew 1-1 with Trinidad and Tobago. Not a great result. Haven't been super good in friendlies. They are probably one of the least talented teams at this World Cup.
01:06:04
Speaker
Sebastian Ming is their French manager. He has a lot of global experience. he's got a background in CAF. He's been in charge of of Congo, Kenya, Equatorial, Guinea. He was an assistant with Cameroon when they played and beat Brazil. He got Kenya to their first ever AFCON in 2019. He signed up for this Haiti job in 2024 to help them qualify.
01:06:23
Speaker
he has never stepped foot on Haitian soil. He's getting a lot of credit as a smart manager. He's a tactical innovator. He makes the best of what he can get out of his squad. He has upped recruitment from Europe. He is bringing in players that are raising the level of the Haitian game.
01:06:39
Speaker
He is committed to this job. admit the style of play here doesn't maybe match up for making a run at this world cup. Haiti aren't really good enough to shut games off defensively.
01:06:51
Speaker
They're also not really at the level attacking enough to score goals. They're a great story. They are obviously hoping to be more than just a great story, but we'll see. Time will tell how that actually ends.
01:07:05
Speaker
Yeah, I think in terms of talent, as you said, they're probably one of the the worst teams here just on talent. There's a lot of guys that are playing, you know, USL or their best guys are like some of them are in in France League two. And then the next best guys are like Portugal League two. So they've actually done well to to put together a decent pool here and a decent roster. But a lot of starters on this team, I just think are going to be at a level that is lower than the starters anywhere else. And I think the results that you can point to that are troubling for this team is a 1-0 loss to Saudi Arabia at the Gold Cup when they kind of outplayed them and couldn't finish enough chances. And then their friendlies, you know, losing to Tunisia 1-0, a team that we kind of also have pegged in the bottom of this field. I think like they're in that category with Cape Verde. And I don't know who's better. And we'd love to see that game, but we're not getting that game. They've got to get out of a group with Scotland, Brazil, and Morocco. And that is tough. And that's why the models do not like them. It is a very uphill climb. However,
01:08:10
Speaker
Sebastian Meen thinks we can get to the round of 32. He's aiming big, and these guys are fearless. I think that is the thing about Haiti. They do not play park defend ball. They are trying to run with you in the midfield. They're trying to press you. They're leggy players. They're trying to...
01:08:28
Speaker
get an open game so that they get enough volume of chances. Otherwise they would not get chances for their strikers that killed them against Saudi Arabia where they didn't score those chances, but they can do that against the right team. The issue is if that's the model against Saudi Arabia and it didn't quite work, what happens when that's the model against these three teams?
01:08:46
Speaker
So it's, it's an uphill climb and there's no way you can like look at this team. I think it's weaknesses or it's fullbacks. That is a problem against the the the other three teams in the group. That's going to problem. But the center mids can play a little bit and that is going to help them. Can they get some moments? Let's see. I think, you know, you don't want, you never want to come in and say like, this team is a joy to be here. They should be happy to be here. What the pageantry, you know, it means so much in another group, you know, you'd, you'd want to give them more of a chance. It's hard to imagine a different conversation here. Although I applaud the,
01:09:22
Speaker
Sebastian mean who I think is you know getting a lot of plaudits deservedly so maybe there's a scalp in there getting three good performances that lead you to round of 32 might be a bridge too far for even him But this is probably one of the hardest jobs in international football, what Sebastian Ming has done here. And he's done it, I think, in a very intelligent way in that he's used Haitian success to better his player pool, right?
01:09:48
Speaker
And so that is what a lot of Caribbean nations do, is they look to players who have heritage, who are eligible, who aren't at the level of playing for France and maybe hadn't considered playing for Haiti or have kind of seen the door shut elsewhere,
01:10:02
Speaker
and You call those guys up and it's a lot easier sell to those guys to say, hey, we're in the thick of a World Cup qualification
Haiti's World Cup Prospects
01:10:08
Speaker
fight. Hey, we've qualified for the World Cup. Those are the types of conversations, Amit, that bring those guys in. And those are the types of guys that have, I think, raised the level of this Haitian side. You look at Wilson Isidore, who's at Sunderland.
01:10:21
Speaker
He's got a lot riding on him here. He's a new addition, fast, striking option. Look, he's not a top tier, huge, high level elite world world player, but he's better than the other options that Haiti have had.
01:10:34
Speaker
a player like John Richter Bellegarde in the midfield, he is a replacement level Premier League center midfielder. Do you know how far a replacement level Premier League center midfielder goes for a team like Haiti, goes for a mid to bottom tier CONCACAF side? There are pieces here to suggest that there's a brighter future. There's commitment here to suggest that this team can do things. And as you said, Amit, the buy-in is 100% and that can sometimes lead to results.
01:11:00
Speaker
Yeah, and I think the spine of this team is is is a strength. Bell guard at Wolves, John Jock Danley at the Philadelphia Union. Again, he's an MLS plus midfielder. He's a little raw going forward, but he's going to help them win the ball.
01:11:14
Speaker
And then I think the center backs are okay. Ricardo Ade is at Quito in in Ecuador and Han Delcroy at Lugano in the Swiss League. Like, Listen, for this team, like that's a solid spine. they're not going to like They're going to be the strengths.
01:11:28
Speaker
and They can win the ball, get it forward, and hope Isidore steals a chance. The fullbacks, the wingers, that's where the backup depth is a problem. And I think specifically what teams are going to pick on, they're going to look at left back, where you're looking at Duke LaCroix as at Colorado Springs, switch Colorado switchbacks, Marn Experience at Nancy Lorraine,
01:11:51
Speaker
that's he's he's really he's not even like a good starter there and if it's usl like fringe u2 not league two not starter like we're also looking at real Madrid on the other side of the team sheet like like yeah that's where the wingers is like Brahim Diaz and then it's you know Rafinha that is the biggest mismatch on paper that they're gonna have to try to solve and we'll see they're gonna need a lot of help even the right back I think is okay you know Duvern is at Ghent Carlin's Arcus is at Angers like That's okay. The left back is is the the biggest undoing. The wingers are fine. They've got a pair of MLSers, Derek Atienza, Toronto. Luisius Deidson is at Dallas. He came up with some big goals them in qualifying. They're like very fine MLS players, direct wingers, run hard.
01:12:37
Speaker
There's proof of concept here for their running style. It's just, can you overcome a weak link and can you... get through the depth. However, the other thing we have to add is that their depth striker would be hilarious. Lenny Joseph's at Ferenc Varos and our man's Duckins Nizan sub him on when you're chasing a goal, get that second striker on there and lump the ball in the box. And maybe he'll give you something hilarious. Um,
01:13:01
Speaker
Hopefully he'll get on the field in these three games. I think they could use him as a plan B. Listen, I think the manager here is actually good. I don't think it's like ah he got them through like by accident. I think there's a real project here. And I think there might be moments where Haiti is in games, but for 90 minutes, three times, that is just a lot of time against the level of these teams to not give up two, three goals. That is the challenge. Yeah. The big opportunity is obviously Scotland in the first game while I'm drooling over Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti play on the first weekend of the tournament. That goes a long way towards kind of setting the path towards getting third place in this group. And again, all right, if your goal and they publicly stated, and I think they have to publicly state that their goal is to get out of the group because it is,
01:13:46
Speaker
an achievable goal, right? It's difficult. The path might not be easy. Haiti have to absolutely get something from that match. And more often than not, that something has to be three points. Scotland, I don't think are a bridge too far for Haiti here, right? Like I, you can talk me into Haiti kind of creating chaos in the midfield, counting on high level players like Isidore to do something, or maybe they just chucked up and design on for the last 10 minutes. And he does weird things against those Scottish defenders.
01:14:14
Speaker
The Haiti midfield and front line is not going to be overmatched against the Scotland back line. It's the other way that's the problem. But if it's an open game, you you try to steal two goals and get them at the right times. Things can happen. I don't think they're out of that game.
01:14:29
Speaker
Against Brazil and Morocco, the path is probably a lot more difficult. And as we've talked about for a lot of the third place teams, limiting goal differential is absolutely key. And that's where things I think could be difficult for Haiti because they don't really have that shut the game off switch, right? That hasn't really been their calling card. It wasn't their calling card, right? What they do against Costa Rica in qualifying, they drew 3-3. Right. Like that's the type of game we're we're probably looking at here.
01:14:56
Speaker
And when you're looking at the talent that is on the other side of the pitch, that type of game is going to be hard for Haiti to pull off at this level in an effective way. Yeah, I think that's the truth of it. And the other thing, again, that's tough with this format is like if it's a draw between Brazil and Morocco, they're both incentivized to get as many as they can on Haiti. And if it's not a draw, then they need to get past Scotland and not get in third. So like there's there's not a scenario where a team is like letting their foot off the gas.
01:15:26
Speaker
There's not, and it's for Haiti and Scotland, that first game is must win because if you draw that game, the path to getting out of the group just becomes a lot more difficult because we've talked about what the difference between three and two points and in in third place can mean. um Look, I think...
01:15:43
Speaker
It can be very reductionary to say that Haiti are a great story and them making the World Cup is enough. And there is a sense in that, yes, their goal was to make the World Cup. Everything beyond that is simply icing on the cake.
01:15:56
Speaker
That said, they're not coming to the World Cup to make up the numbers. As you said, Sebastian Mene has been very adamant about that. And it's kind of... It's a bit cliche, but it's the little moments for Haiti. And it's, okay, are there 15-ish minutes where they're playing level, level with Brazil? That's progress for where Haiti's at. That is a good positive sign. Can they be get a foothold in the game against Scotland and make it a game for 90 minutes? That's progress.
01:16:20
Speaker
And I think the support that they're going to get in the stands, it's not going to be people obviously coming from Haiti, but the people with Haitian heritage in the U.S. s are going to flock out to support this team.
01:16:30
Speaker
Absolutely well-deserved, and they are rightly one of the best stories. Yeah. And in the gold cup, it was disappointing to the lose to Saudi Arabia. It was disappointing to tie Trinidad and Tobago, but they were one, one with the United States until the 75th, 79th minute. Like they could be in a game against the top 15 team in the world. So like
World Cup Excitement and Expectations
01:16:50
Speaker
they're in there, there's going to be those moments for them where you have to enjoy it and just play, like be in the moment. Maybe things go well for you. I'm spot on with you. and I think there's going to be a lot of public support for this team, and which will be nice. Yeah. And look, if they find lightning in a bottle and they start to get on a run, man, that public sentiment is just going to flow all the way there. And that's what's so much fun about the World Cup is you get into those stories and it's just like, yeah, I'm all in on Haiti. I love these guys. How could you not love these guys? So they're going to be fantastic to watch. One game to watch from this group. of bit I think you know my answer by this point of the podcast.
01:17:26
Speaker
I have made it abundantly clear that I think Brazil-Morocco is one of the best games in the group stage. I think that we are going to learn a lot about Brazil and we're going to learn a lot about Morocco in that game. And it's really going to condition our feelings about those teams towards the back end of this tournament, what we see in that game. And I don't discount the possibility that Morocco might just play Brazil off the pitch and give us a massive World Cup storyline that early in the tournament.
01:17:53
Speaker
You're spot on. That is what we both want to see. It would be fast hitting if Morocco did that. It's a great time for Morocco to have that game. It's also decent for both teams. Like, yes, you don't want to be the team that loses that game, but then you kind of know where you stand and you have two games to, to you know, you can't throw them away, but figure it out.
01:18:13
Speaker
It's hard to imagine the stakes feeling more for the opening round like that is yeah exciting it feels like you know there's so much unknown like there's gonna be we're gonna we're gonna find out about these teams as yeah i'm just i'm saying what you said but it's gonna be so fun like it's a real chance for blood on the first day and that you you rarely get that Yeah, we spent 75 minutes on this podcast asking questions and that game is going to answer so many of those questions or at least send us on the path towards answering those questions because one game does not a World Cup make, etc, etc. But it's a big one. Anything else in this group you want to point out?
01:18:52
Speaker
No, I think terms in terms of the betting odds, we talk about them. It's pretty stratified. Scotland's at minus 310 to get through. That's on their relative strength and on Haiti. The models do not like Haiti. Have them a plus to 800. We'll see.
01:19:05
Speaker
um And then I think there's not really great value anywhere. Brazil is kind of expected to make the the quarterfinals. That's at minus 125. That's decent value for a team getting in the quarterfinals, but it's not plus value. So This
Podcast Conclusion
01:19:18
Speaker
is, as we started off, a stratified but fun electric group. I think this is a classic World Cup group, and that is for the purists, for the people that love the World Cup, like you got to enjoy it when you get it.
01:19:30
Speaker
And just the the contrast of styles of countries, of everything it's just it just all fits and works together in a way that I think is really appealing, even if this group ends up Brazil 9-1.
01:19:43
Speaker
Morocco six, Scotland three, Haiti zero. I think how we get there is even still just going to be very, very enjoyable. So I'm certainly looking forward to it. I'm also looking forward to all the other 11 groups. And if you want more on the other 11 groups, you've probably checked out the rest of our world cup group stage preview podcast. If you are looking for those, you can find those obviously on Spotify, Apple podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts.
01:20:05
Speaker
or for an easy one-stop shop for it all, patreon.com slash WCAD. We have our World Cup preview hub there where you can find links to all of our World Cup preview content. And while you're there, you can also support us monetarily. Three bucks a month, access to subscriber-only content and all of that fun stuff. There have been plenty of World Cup group stage preview podcasts. There will be more. World Cup group stage preview podcast. And then there will be plenty of World Cup podcasts from Amit and I. We are obviously very much looking forward to it. We hope you are as well.
01:20:36
Speaker
We've gone on long enough. We will see you guys next time. But as always, thanks for listening.