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WCAD 4-4: Group F Preview
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Austin & Amit's tour of the groups continues with Group F, headlined by the eternal bridesmaids Netherlands, who are joined by podcast favorites Japan, a grimy group from Tunisia and qualifying antiheros Sweden.
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Transcript
World Cup Group F Overview
00:00:00
Speaker
So obviously, when you preview all 12 groups of the World Cup, you tend to find yourself trying to maybe sell an angle from each of the 12 groups, right? You're convincing yourself why this group would be good. And I'll admit, there are some groups that are a more difficult sell than others.
00:00:18
Speaker
But today, Amit, we're going be talking about Group F. And I got to tell you, we don't have to do much selling here. This group is perfectly poised with exciting, fun World Cup After Dark teams and also Tunisia. More on them in a little bit. But this is exactly the type of group we love.
00:00:34
Speaker
Exactly. The three teams here that have to play attacking soccer because of the way they are, that's Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden. They also kind of fit really well into their general first best team, second best team, third best team in a group. And the fourth best team here, Tadija, is a great mucker.
00:00:50
Speaker
And that is kind of just a great recipe, I think, for a World Cup group, especially in the type of group where three teams can get through. There should be no shortage of goals and and fun here. and be you know we are gonna we When we talk about some of the groups to the point you started with, we have to massage the fun in ways that are not goal scoring. No massaging here. It should be a lot of teams going for it. and I think we are both in agreement, really looking forward to this group.
00:01:21
Speaker
This is the World Cup After Dark podcast. He, on the other end, is Amit Malik. My name is Austin Miller. And as alluded to, we'll be breaking down Group F today. This group, of bit it feels like there are maybe a pair of Tier 2 teams in the general sense of what Tier 2 means. I don't know how far your money goes on Japan for that.
00:01:38
Speaker
We have, as you said, a team that is one of the most hilarious stories from qualifying in Sweden. We didn't think should be here, but they are here and add a really good flavor to this group.
00:01:48
Speaker
And also Tunisia, who probably all listened to our initial World Cup preview podcast. And when we said, hey, if a team can get three nil-nil draws and go through with three points and zero, they're probably going through.
Challenges in Advancing from Group F
00:02:00
Speaker
And Tunisia said, yeah, we're going to try that.
00:02:05
Speaker
Yeah, which is probably not the best way to do it, but we'll we'll see what they can do. i I think we're going to have some fun talking about exactly where Japan fit in. I think that is a big question to to try to answer today. um And for sure, I think Netherlands, just on their on the the the big picture of it, are always in that category, right outside the top elite teams in the world, ah but always reliable to kind of be not worse than that. And so...
00:02:32
Speaker
As we kind of keep going on this group, I think what's tough for all of these teams is the draw is not the kindest. Even where I think Japan, tier two, tier three, like Japan we're going to talk about has a lot of the trappings of a dark horse favorite.
00:02:51
Speaker
Things are just hard for this group specifically. Yeah, the draw, think, is a perfect place to start because there's an argument to be made that it could severely limit the upside of this group or it couldn't play a role at all. But it's going to matter here because the winner of this group will play the runner up from Group C. That's the Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti group in Monterey. That in and of itself is already a difficulty, right? There's 12 groups.
00:03:16
Speaker
Eight group winners get a third place team. Four group winners get a runner up. This is one of the group that gets a runner up. That's a difficult thing. And then they get the runner up of a and B in the round of 16. That might be an advantageous round of 16 matchup. That could be Mexico, could be Canada, right? and And then also we're expecting probably Germany and France to also be in this quadrant. This is a loaded quadrant if the seeds hold and all of these teams kind of end up where we think they'll end up.
00:03:41
Speaker
and then the runner-up of it has to play the winner of Group C, which is Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti, probably Brazil, maybe Morocco, and Houston. And then in the round of 16, you've got the runner-up of the Germany and the France group, Mexico group winner, and then perhaps the the England group winner is also in the quadrant.
00:03:59
Speaker
The fact that the winner is playing a runner up and that the runner up is playing a winner and also that the runner up of that group, be it you know Morocco or even perhaps Scotland or Haiti, is a difficult matchup means that the teams that come out of this group are going to be tested probably right away.
00:04:18
Speaker
Yeah, even if you win, I mean, you're looking at Morocco as a potential runner up is a really, really tough game. And again, you don't know how c is going to go. you You generally want to try to win and see maybe if you get a Scotland or a Haiti, you could. And that would be great.
00:04:34
Speaker
ah Really specifically tough here for the second place team. I mean, your round of 32 game potentially being Brazil is just about as hard as it gets in in the round of 32 for someone that finishes second. And that's what we're we're we're talking about here. That's tough for a team like Japan or Sweden. And I do think...
00:04:53
Speaker
big picture if Japan or Sweden think they have a chance to make a run in this tournament
Netherlands' World Cup Prospects
00:05:00
Speaker
and your mileage may vary but maybe Japan feels that way and they have a chance to feel that way you really should try to win this group and that makes that important and you know I think we generally see the calculus by managers here is all together.
00:05:15
Speaker
Look, advance first. Yes, of course, advance first. You can't just, you can't be plotting your your chart out on match day one to the final. But I think in this group, you you really have to think big picture and try to do it. And that is going to be fun. And I think that makes, you know, no sleepy games. There's no settling for points. And we're saying that about all the groups. And there's going to be some times where you're playing for a point in a more defensive position.
00:05:42
Speaker
But I think the the Japan and Sweden have to try to to steal three off the Netherlands, which again, leads to that pressure of this being a very high octane set of games.
00:05:55
Speaker
It's a more macro point and one that we probably should have made on our general World Cup preview, but it's really interesting the way that this draw fell. As I mentioned earlier, right? Eight group winners get third place teams, four group winners get runner up. The group winners that get runners up are kind of four of the strongest top to bottom groups, right? It's the Brazil Morocco group, it's this group, and then it's the Argentina group, which we'll get to in a little bit, and then the Spain group. And that, I think, is going to perhaps make an unequal draw, particularly in the round of 32. I was telling you before the show, it's like, you get the sense, oh, there's going be some easy round of... We haven't seen any of the easy round of 32 matchups yet. I'm sure they're gonna come and they're going be there, but we haven't really come across any of them yet in our previews.
00:06:33
Speaker
No, not not really. I mean, the the the best case is when we talked about Mexico's group and Canada's group and the runner-up in both of those groups might be soft, but like... They're playing each other. I mean, yeah, exactly. So this is...
00:06:50
Speaker
I mean, this is an interesting thing with this new round of 32-year-old card. We have not seen it. like Off the bat, you're thinking, oh, this is going to be easy. But the truth is, like there's 30 good teams here. like Most of these 32 teams are going to be pretty good. And outside of the top four or five, six, like you're just not going to have a game you feel good about on the router 32. And that is tough.
00:07:16
Speaker
That makes the whole course dangerous to get to the final. And think we, one thing we did talk about on the preview podcast is more games, more variants or more chance for the the talent to shine through. I think it's going to be a little bit of both. And that's where like, yeah you're, you're seeing that manifest right here. Like there's going to be carnage and that's going to be fun.
00:07:36
Speaker
right, let's break down the Netherlands amid 12 World Cups. They've made the finals three times in 74-78 in 2010, made the semifinals in 98 in 2014. There is a case to be made that the Netherlands are the best team to never win the World Cup.
00:07:49
Speaker
Always the bridesmaid, never the bride, etc. ah They had a banger of a game in 2022 against Argentina in the quarterfinals that they lost. They didn't make the World Cup in 2018, which was a bit of surprise. They had a very easy qualification campaign, five wins and a draw in a group that included Finland, Poland, Lithuania, and Malta.
00:08:06
Speaker
The Euro 24 saw them lose in the semifinals to England. I mean, these guys, it feels like they're right there. The talent is there for them to be right there or even more. And the eternal question is always, can they get over that last step, which is probably the hardest step?
00:08:24
Speaker
Yeah, that record speaks to it. And I mean, they've been close even in the Euros, which is the best teams outside of South America. And this team feels like it is just in that mold. Like they are right outside of the top four or five. They're definitely inside the top 10. There's a lot of Champions League level guys. There's a lot of Europa League level guys. It's, I think, by my value, where I would put them right around...
00:08:53
Speaker
Six or seven, I think, for top top teams of the world, right? You've got the top four. Then I think you got Portugal, Brazil, and then you're here with like whatever you think of Belgium and then whatever you think of...
00:09:10
Speaker
did I don't know. like it's it'sous Yeah, no. im yeah like they And I think Netherlands are better than Belgium. So in my in my mind, um I want to put them at, I think, sixth, right? Or seventh, if you include Brazil, right?
00:09:24
Speaker
so yeah i can't count. Anyways, that's where they are. So yeah the question is, on the balance of it, if you are the sixth or seventh best team, one of these times, right? You should be in the quarterfinals every time. Talk about expectations now a little bit. Should be in the quarterfinals every time. You could win a... ah a slightly worse than a toss up, but then you have to do that two more times to win it all. And that is just what is the issue for a team like this.
00:09:48
Speaker
And i think as we talk about this team, they are very elite. They are very good across the field, but it's just in a few spots, you're missing a guy who the best team has 11 players.
00:10:02
Speaker
ringers And this team has like seven or eight. And so how can you, how can you try to make up for that deficit? And that's going to be fascinating question. um I think that, I think internally the expectations should be like,
00:10:18
Speaker
let's make a semifinal. Let's make a final. Let's see. Let's we're good enough to win this thing. Let's push. I think, you know, outsider neutral, more objective position is make a quarterfinal and put yourself in the game. And if you do that, put yourself in the next game. And if you do that, put yourself in the next game. Like that is all you can ask for. And I think if they make a quarterfinal here,
00:10:38
Speaker
If things go to plan, it will be Germany or France, probably France. I don't think anyone can say Netherlands should be favored against France, but it's not a game they can't win. So that's kind of, to me, the the bell curve outcome would be a quarterfinal loss. But can they ah can they overturn that?
00:10:55
Speaker
And you said that's kind of the strategy they followed in 2022, right? They got themselves in the
Japan's World Cup Ambitions
00:11:00
Speaker
quarterfinal against Argentina. They put themselves in the game. They took the game, the penalties, and it didn't go their way. They did everything they could have. missed them Right. Perhaps maybe it goes their way this time. Ronald Coleman is the manager. He had a brief stint with the Netherlands from 2018 2020. Didn't coach them... Had a major tournament, then went to Barcelona.
00:11:16
Speaker
Came back in 2022, managed them at the Euro 24. Pretty successful run, all things considered. Their first semifinals was 2014, sailed through qualifying. You mentioned the style of it. This is an attacking total football team. There's a bit of control in there, but as far as the open to shut thing, you know, kind of... span of of what a team can be. We're going to see the Netherlands kind of favor towards that open side. a lot of high IQ players that can make pretty structured runs. They'll play high up the field. There will be events when the Netherlands is on the pitch. You know, when you talk about high event or low event games, Netherlands games tend towards event games, and that's good for a neutral.
00:11:54
Speaker
Yeah, they want to attack. They like their attacking players. They like their midfielders. You know, I don't think they're as all out selling out as perhaps Germany or Spain, but I think they are more so than England and France. And so exactly as you said in that, you know, how much event do they play, they're they're right in the middle there, but it's... it's they they want a score. They don't want to necessarily shut a game down. They are just a very well-coached team. They were under Louis Van Hall. They are under Ronald Koeman. They are very stylistically adaptable, too. They will try to play to your weakness and protect their weaknesses, um which we're going to talk about. So
00:12:36
Speaker
it's just a It's just a really solid, solid team. And they play like pretty solid, fun football. And I think that is the Netherlands way. right We mentioned total football. like There is a sense that every guy on the field can do a little bit of everything. And they're all smart players. I think you expect that from the Netherlands.
00:12:55
Speaker
this team This team is in that mold. Bart Verbruggen at Brighton should be their starting goalkeeper, having a good season. He's rangy, he's good with his feet. Moving to the defense a minute, I think there's some interesting questions for Coleman to try to answer here, right?
00:13:08
Speaker
Making the defensive pieces come together, he has a lot of options, which means, obviously, he has a lot of different things he could do, and perhaps some of it could be indicated based on the style that they're looking to play or a particular matchup.
00:13:23
Speaker
Yeah, obviously Virgil van Dijk is the the talismanic center back. He is at Liverpool. I think he's very much lost a step from the last World Cup. When he was at his prime, Liverpool were winning titles in the Premier League. he's not that He's not that player anymore, but he is still an elite reader of the game. I think as smart as a center back as you can find. At his peak, he allowed Liverpool to kind of...
00:13:48
Speaker
ah defend with less, like leave two or three guys back and just mop up everything. He is not as trustworthy to do that anymore. The good news, though, is that the Netherlands kind of in the last few years spawned perhaps the fastest center back in the world in Mickey Vandevent, who's at Tottenham. He's probably going to leave this summer.
00:14:09
Speaker
he is... A speed demon like he he's got like track speed at a center back role. The thing is, i think he's kind of a left back here um because it used to be Nathan Ake. This squad doesn't really have an ideal left back. That's still a fine player for fast player to be. But then if he's at left back and Van Dijk is at center back, the big question is who is kind of the right center back or the guy along Van Dijk. And there's a lot of options here. It could be Stefan DeVry, who, you know, has been around Juventus and Manchester United and is now bouncing here around Italy. You've got Nathan Ake, who's not really playing at Manchester City and was also used to be the left back for this Netherlands team. And I think that's where Van De Ven has kind of
00:14:55
Speaker
taking his spot could be Jan Paul von Hecke at Brighton, who is like a premier league center back. He is, is bright like Brighton are not a defensive team. He's more of a ball playing guy. Then there's also the very good right back at Arsenal. You're in timber. He's a right back though, but he's a good right footed player. Do you use him at right back? So that way you kind of have to play your best right back. Who's Denzel doom freeze a name. We're all familiar with. He, he, Especially Americans will remember that he was excellent against them in that Netherlands a United States game. I think Dumfries is probably starting at right back. And then you kind of leave Jeremy Frimpong, the Liverpool right back off the starting team sheet, unless he's right wing.
00:15:41
Speaker
It's a bit uncertain. And I think it depends. Do you want more defense? Do you want more offense? I like it's tricky. The options, though, seem relatively high level, right? We're not talking about a team that's percentage there's good i don't think a weak link I don't think there's going to be a weak link in the defense. And there's depth, too. So the defense here is is good. And this team should be able, again, we talk about adaptability. They can have defenders that play the ball. They can have physical defenders. They have wingbacks that can get up. have wingbacks that can defend. like the Defense is great here. Truly, I think, as good as it gets around the world.
00:16:15
Speaker
Then the midfield amid some more question marks because you've got two-way players that when healthy are really good. You've got two-way players maybe with some limitations. You have some injury concerns, obviously.
00:16:27
Speaker
What do we expect from from the Dutch midfield? You're getting the double pivot of Frankie Deong and Ryan Gravenberch. I think Deong has been a little ah injured this year at Barca. They're expecting him to to start and be a star. And without him, you're kind of just losing a lot. So just something to keep in mind. i think he's going to play, but any game he doesn't play, he is close to Rodri level of most impactful center midfielder in the world.
00:16:54
Speaker
Gravenberch is fine. I think Liverpool fans are kind of sick of him, but he is a very good midfielder. That is a great two to have. They're missing a third guy here. I think the question of what they do is complicated.
00:17:08
Speaker
There's Tajani Rinders, who's at Manchester City. He doesn't really defend, and he's not a pure number 10. He's a good passer, but like... not the best.
00:17:20
Speaker
Xavi Simons, who is at Tottenham, who was a great winger, number 10, like kind of a make something happen kind of guy is hurt. Justin Cliver, it's another like make something happen finisher kind of guy at Bournemouth. He's coming back from injury.
00:17:34
Speaker
Jaredy Schutten, I think is at a PSV, I want to say, and he's a good shooter, but he's very slow and not very dynamic. They've got a youngster in Luciano Valente. He's I haven't seen that much tape on him, but he is supposedly very dynamic and could be a star, but like a little in unproven.
00:17:55
Speaker
I think what they do with this third spot, I i mean, again, this is May previewing here. We don't know. I think they're going to have to figure this out. This could be a an issue just in terms of Do you support the front line with attack? Do you need to be, you shouldn't necessarily meet need to be more defensive, but all of these guys are kind of not as elite as the best number 10s. I think it's a bit of a problem.
00:18:18
Speaker
And when you're talking about elite teams against elite teams or want to be elite teams, those are the kind of things that France or Spain or Germany or whatever, they they circle when you come into that matchup because that is the type of spot that you're probably looking to attack if there is a question mark over that third midfield player, whatever it may be. I mean, you sold the Netherlands short earlier. You said that there's a good group of, of, of champions league players, a good group of Europa league players. There's also a convo Libertadores player in this Netherlands squad, of course, in Corinthians, man, Memphis Depay. He's had a bit of a time at the club recently got hurt at the end of March. i came back from being hurt too soon because the club's trainers told him it would be fine. And then he was not fine.
00:18:57
Speaker
I expect him to make this Netherlands squad and he's going to be one of probably many options in attack. And it feels like this entire attack is kind of, it's really illustrative of what the Netherlands is, right? They're all very good players, but there's not that one elite kind of, I'm counting on that guy to score four goals at the world cup and he's going to, and that also feels like a potential spot where, okay.
00:19:23
Speaker
Yeah. can Sweden in the group stage. It might not matter, but against France in a quarterfinal, it probably will. Well said. I think this is the biggest question mark for this team. The defense, I believe, is elite.
00:19:35
Speaker
Your two midfielders, the whole midfielders, believe, are elite. Now the 10, there's a question mark. And now this group of guys, you nailed it. They're all good, but you're missing that... You know, you look at you look at England. You look at Spain. You look at France. They've all got a guy. You look at Argentina. You look at Brazil.
00:19:53
Speaker
And I think all of those... And you look at Portugal. All the teams that we listed in the top five or six ahead of the
Tunisia's Defensive Strategy
00:20:00
Speaker
Netherlands have star difference maker guys on the front line. yeah The best players here are Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay. And I think...
00:20:12
Speaker
Memphis Depay has always had that ability to score the worldie, right? He's got a catalog of crazy goals, but it's the reliability, it's the consistency, it's the work rate. I mean, no one here can say we can count on him.
00:20:25
Speaker
Yeah, he's also 32, playing in Brazil, living in a five-star hotel. like are we really counting on Memphis Depay to show up here for seven games and just put in 100% shift? Can he put in 100% shift? Like, it's not exactly the archetype of the player that you want to be counting on to score goals at the World Cup as an elite team.
00:20:45
Speaker
I agree. And I think at best, he is like ah super sub to make something happen role or like a breaking case of emergency, like type of player. um Gakbo, I think there was a lot of hopes for him. I think remember 2022 or years ago, we were like,
00:21:00
Speaker
This guy is a rising ascendant superstar. And listen, he's the left wing at Liverpool. Like he's a good player. I think he's a left winger that cuts inside and shoots and he gets a lot of shots off. The issue is his his shots have not really gone in at the same rate. He takes a lot of shots from distance and he hasn't developed that dribbling, passing like a true electricity threat as you want your left wing.
00:21:25
Speaker
So like, listen, this Netherlands team, they don't need him to do that. Doom freeze is, is, is great on the right side as the right back crossing. And I think your midfield is going to work the ball.
00:21:36
Speaker
I don't think they're going to ask Gakbo to progress. I think he's going to be a finisher. Can he be a guy that, that steals you, you know, one or two, three goals that you need to get over the home.
00:21:48
Speaker
I mean, he hasn't been that guy at Liverpool this year, but he he was in the past for the Netherlands. That's that's an answer. Daniel Mollen, I think, is a very much Europa League-level player. He is a very fast striker slash winger.
00:22:03
Speaker
He gets shots. He can do take-ons, but he is not elite at anything. he's His elite attribute is his speed. i think he has to start unless you can trust a pie. don't think you can trust a pie. And then your right winger is question mark.
00:22:17
Speaker
You could play Frimpong at right wing. He's very, very fast at Liverpool. He's a wingback, but he's very fast. um In friendlies, they've been playing Taeyn Kupminers. He is a Juventus center mid. He's a very good center mid. He's not a winger, but like he has like passing and tidiness on the ball.
00:22:37
Speaker
um That could be helpful. Again, if you're just planning to to cross and get the ball in the box, he can do that. And then you kind of have... if it's if you need Mollen on the right, you've got options at the the striker. None of them are elite, right? There is surprise, surprise, it's 2026. It's Vout Weghorst. Remember him? Remember him coming, being Louis van Gaal's ultimate plan B ah to to even, it was effective against Argentina? Well, guess what? I think he's still perhaps the best plan B in the tournament.
00:23:06
Speaker
Throw tactics out the window. Throw your 6'6 guy in the box and hit the ball towards him. I think that is ah the the the Netherlands adaptability is specifically around a guy like Veghorst, making them very interesting.
00:23:19
Speaker
Then you've got um Brian Broby at Sunderland, Noah Lang, Speed Demon ah in in Turkey. You can play any which way you want to mix and match. And I think Coleman is a tinkerer. So like that is good. But like there's a certain limit to like, wow, we can play all these different ways. Well, we can do all these different things and move the pieces around in the chessboard. But sometimes you're limited by the other teams got like two or three queens and we're playing with pawns and bishops like something like that. Anology is this Netherlands team. Yeah.
00:23:54
Speaker
I like it. I like it. You're going to go into the chest. I think you've made a pretty good point about where this
Sweden's World Cup Journey
00:24:00
Speaker
Netherlands team is. i think what you mentioned about Vanquist, I think is really important that this is a team that are not easily seen out down a goal.
00:24:10
Speaker
Right. Like you're not just going to sit back and watch him whip balls into nothing in the last 10 minutes of the game. They have the options to break in case of emergency and make life really hard for a defensive team. It's exactly what they did Argentina. Obviously, and like Argentina should have seen the game out. They didn't. They had go all the way to penalties to do so.
00:24:27
Speaker
That, I think, could work in the Netherlands' favor here. But the fact that there isn't that elite calling card thing that they can hang their hat on is kind of what makes it feel like, to me, the top, top level here just isn't where it needs to be to make a run to a final or win a World Cup. And that feels like that might be what costs them.
00:24:51
Speaker
I think so. the Again, positives, they can kind of play any game state. I think if they get up one, they're going to be really tough to score against. And I think if they're down one, as we said, they have all these these options.
00:25:03
Speaker
But against an elite team, I... I struggle. I think their best thing is their defensive and team-like organization and speed, and specifically Van de Ven and Van Dyke.
00:25:17
Speaker
Can they play a high line and really attack the field and create a volume of chances and live with leaving less? Can they try that against a team like Spain?
00:25:29
Speaker
Can you play three-on-three versus the France three, which is... I don't think anyone in the world can say yes, but I think the Netherlands may might be the closest and that might be their chance. We're going to live with that. We're going go up one or two and then then we're going to see if we can do it.
00:25:45
Speaker
That's a case for them. I mean, you'd rather be France. You'd rather would. But it's it's it's an interesting team. there's I think one thing that you said, we talked about this before, variability here. This could be the year. This could be the right gel. I think Coleman's a good manager too. and This is a good vibes of Netherlands team. This could be the year. They also could be in the round of 32 against Brazil and Morocco and just...
00:26:13
Speaker
get a bunch of chances and not get one. And then you're, you know, your XG looks good and you're out. Like, welcome to the knockouts. Like it's ah it's a high variability a team. I will say before we talk about the other three teams in this group, the field control from the midfield and defense should be good enough to get out of this group pretty comfortably. Yeah, and I think to to close on the Netherlands, this group will probably help them because I think that question that you're asking, okay, can we play three on three back the other way? They'll get a couple of chances to try that. Obviously, they won't see anything like the elite attack that a France can throw at you.
00:26:46
Speaker
But in Sweden and Japan, there's attacks here that can ask questions well enough. that Coleman can maybe try and dip his toe in that water in the group stage and discover, okay, I think we can do this or, ooh, we couldn't do that against them. There's no way we can do that against them. I think that's that's an interesting point for the elements of this group.
00:27:04
Speaker
Yeah, well said. they And he'll he'll learn from that. He will be like, it's not working. OK, we're going to be a defensive team. Or, oh, we really need to to tilt it. So it is a good group for that. One of our favorite international football teams, because of the way they play, because of the style that they have, because of the joy that they play with, is Japan. They are the part two team in this group. It's their eighth World Cup appearance. They've made eight in row since 1998.
00:27:29
Speaker
Four round of 16s, but never further in 2002, 2010, 2018, 2022. They topped Colombia in 2018, Spain in 2022. They got Germany out in a group of death.
00:27:41
Speaker
Devastating penalty loss to Croatia, obviously, in 2022. The trend line here... admit for Japan is up. They're currently the class of Asia. Their qualification record was very good. Their second round, they were not tested at all. Six and oh, 24 score, zero goals allowed. Difficult group in the third round, but they made it look easy against Australia and Saudi Arabia.
00:28:00
Speaker
Didn't have a very good Asian cup in 2024. They fell out against Iran. Hajime Moriasu has been their coach in 2018. He's the long one of the longest tenured coaches in international football. That continuity of it is kind of the calling card for Japan.
00:28:13
Speaker
It doesn't matter who's in the team. It doesn't matter where they come from. You know the very distinct style that they're going play. And where so much of international football is maybe marked by chaos, he is the symbol of stability reliability for Japan.
00:28:26
Speaker
And as I said, whoever they call into the team knows the expectation, knows the style, and they can execute it. The question is, can they execute at a level high enough to get them over the hump and onto a long knockout run?
00:28:41
Speaker
They've been trending this way, right? They've made all those round of 16s. This is kind of the right time for this team, which I think is getting a lot of good... vibes and gelling you know the way they went through qualifying very clearly to me the best team in asia this is the time to make that run to be a quarter finalist maybe you know we said look at the dark horse candidates is the best team in a confederation outside of europe and south america a chance if you're the best team in africa morocco you can do it the best team in asia and japan you can do it
00:29:16
Speaker
And now what they have to contend with at this World Cup is some injuries here that are very tough to deal with and the draw, which we started with at the top. But second place in this group gets potentially Brazil.
00:29:29
Speaker
You can either beat Brazil and you can do that or you have to win the group and beat the Netherlands. So there there's ah you're going to need you're going need a big scalp early and they've they got some big scalps in the past, but you need to get them when they count here, uh, to get what they want.
00:29:44
Speaker
And the other thing about those, those injuries. And just to, before we talk about them specifically is the point that the manager Moriasu made is if you read the way he talks about it, he goes, listen, I'm, I'm bummed for those guys, but it hurts for them more than it hurts us.
00:30:00
Speaker
Like they've lost two of their three best attackers in, um kairu mutoma at brighton and mina mino and they're just going like next guy up endless and everyone wants to say that but they mean it like we've got seven or eight really really good attackers in the stables waiting to go and so like this is a team of swiss army knives this is a team that just wants to to let them run and so They're going to, they're going to like, even though they're missing those two guys, they're going to back themselves to think they can be that team that can shock a scout. This team I think is really, really hungry. They're up against it, but this, ah listen, you don't have to like sell your, sell, sell them as a dark horse candidate. This team believes it is the dark horse candidate. I feel like.
00:30:48
Speaker
And part of the reason why we love the LeMet is their style just shines through. You don't have to watch a lot of soccer to understand that Japan are kind of doing it a little bit distinctively and are also really, really committed to it. And that's why we love them.
00:31:05
Speaker
A hundred percent. It is a very, you know, long development arc to get a bunch of players who are very technical, very fast and a very high work rate. And I think it is not a mistake that Japan's development has sent so many guys to the Bundesliga. Yeah. This is a very German influenced team, very German influenced ideas, very high press, very high work rate. um They, they,
00:31:31
Speaker
want to run, they want to work hard, they want to turn you over as much as possible. And then they also, because they coach their guys so technical at an early age, like then they, they win the ball and and get space and they shred you. This is like the wood chipper team of just so relentless. And I think that is what you were talking about. When you watch this team, it jumps out, especially at the international level. It's like, you're watching a Bundesliga team play a bunch of uncoordinated teams and they look lost.
00:32:02
Speaker
Playing Japan, if you're not ready, feels like you're drowning because of how relentless they are. And we've seen that, right? We've seen that happen against a lot of international teams. We've seen that against kind of pretender teams that want to think that they're at that. Like we saw Japan play Saudi Arabia World Cup qualifying and just absolutely destroy them because that's how good they can be on their day.
00:32:23
Speaker
right, I mean, we've said that The who Japan has maybe doesn't matter as to what they do, but the who they have is still pretty good. Yeah. And this is interesting team. I think,
00:32:35
Speaker
this team's players are not quite that Champions League, Europa League level. Like, yeah, they're Bundesliga guys, but the the players here are more like league level, but not Europa League level of these of these European leagues. So let's start in goal. We've got Zion Suzuki. He's at Parma in Italy. Really cool story. Was born in the United States. His father's Ghanaian. His mother's Japanese. Raised in Japan.
00:33:03
Speaker
ah His tape at Parma is getting better. He is um a very good athlete. He's, you know, ah a better athlete than a lot of Japanese goalkeepers and defenders. He's halffhanaan half Ghanaian, half Japanese. He is tall, explosive, athletic, makes lots of reflex saves. I think there's a reason why his development arc has been a little slower. He's 23. This is a chance for him to to make that leap. But again, not ah not a Champions League Europa level a goalkeeper. Can he can he do that?
00:33:32
Speaker
Look at the defense. Hiroki Ito's at Bayern. Hasn't played a lot this year. He's not quite as fast as Kim Min-Jai, his Korean, also Bayern center back counterpart. But he's very physical. And I think he is crucial to Japan having any success here is because they need physicality in the back line to play a press.
00:33:51
Speaker
He can do that. And then they've got a pair of OK players next to him. Shogo Tanaguchi, Chiyoshi Watanabe at Feyenoord. Again,
00:34:02
Speaker
good players to play this style, but if you're pressing athletic style is Feyenoord in Belgium, I mean, that's a bit worrisome, right? Yeah. And so I think the key for Japan is they want this defense, which might is probably not their strongest point, might even be their weakest spot on the pitch to not be tasked with doing that much, right? They want the, if you will, seven or eight guys in front of them,
00:34:29
Speaker
to take care of maybe not everything, but a lot of things so that these three guys can kind of just keep it simple, stick to the plan, play to the system. And that's why i think the midfield injuries that you talked about, Mitoma and Minamino are big because those are two of their actual elite difference-making players that can play the style and also break out of the style and give you that moment of brilliance because that might just be where Japan is lacking.
00:34:58
Speaker
I think so. And this is this is the bummer for them, because both of these guys, as you said, could have been the elevators to the next level, particularly Matoma. It was one of the players I was most excited to see.
00:35:10
Speaker
Now he's out and there's a lot of guys here that can do the roles. But are they elite? Okay, we've got Wataru Endu at Liverpool. He's not playing at Liverpool that much anymore. He's a solid holding midfielder. They've actually got like three other holding midfielders that they could toss out. They've got Kai Shusano at Joel Fujita at St. Pauli.
00:35:31
Speaker
These are like Bundesliga center mids. Like these guys can run. They have the engine. They can get into tackles. They're pretty tidy on the ball. Okay, maybe you're getting one or two of those guys. And then you've kind of just got another rollout of...
00:35:46
Speaker
winger attackers that can do things. Daiichi Kamada at Crystal Palace, He's a solid, okay on the ball player, high work rate, not hasn't really been great this year at Crystal Palace.
00:35:58
Speaker
Io Tanaka Leeds has been flashing in moments, really exciting on the ball, but pretty unproven. Then another player um that I think could be their best difference maker is Dyson Maeda.
00:36:11
Speaker
He's at Celtic in Scotland. He's very, very fast and he can play anywhere. He could play on the wingback. He could play on the forward. He could be a hybrid 10. I think if there's a guy that's going to kind of jump off the field and make things happen, it's it's going to be Maeda. So I think that is the the big piece. The other thing for them is they've been playing three in the back. And I think because they are a little bit slight in defense, they're compensating with that extra defender. We're going to be their wingbacks. I'm not sure yet. um They've got a pair of, again, Bundesliga outside backs, Yukinara, Sugiwara.
00:36:46
Speaker
He's a great right wing back. Ritsu Doan is another right winger at ah in the Bundesliga that's also kind of a wing back. Someone's going to have to play on the left, and I don't know who that's going to be. I'll leave that to to Japan to figure out.
00:37:01
Speaker
And then up top, I think you've got a player like Takefusa Kubo, who is in Sociedad in La Liga. Very silky, very silky player. Not as fast, high work rate as the other guys, but could be the team to unlock a block when he gets the ball space. And then Ayasa Ueda is a very solid number nine.
00:37:20
Speaker
yeah Again, fast, runs the channels, good finisher, good poacher. he can crawl He can do enough with heading, but he's more like going to run. Again, you watch Bundesliga strikers, great with movement, find central spots in the box, get up a lot of shots.
00:37:35
Speaker
So I think, as you said, also really well, how much can the front seven, front eight cover ground and and really just, you know, buzz up and down the field? Is that defense going to limit them? And the thing that Japan can do so well, though, is they can interchange.
00:37:51
Speaker
These pieces are, you made the chess analogy earlier, right? These pieces are very transit. like They can move around in ways that other teams can't. Their system is set out, but it's not so rigid as to suggest these players can't play various roles and can't do certain things at a high level.
00:38:09
Speaker
That, I think, works in their favor, right? But it it all kind of boils down to this, I think, for Japan. I mean, I love this team. I love watching this team play. I think they're going to be an absolute joy at the World Cup.
00:38:20
Speaker
But they're just lacking that one or two difference makers that in around a round of 32 match against Brazil, in a round of 32 match against Morocco, might just leave them a touch short.
00:38:33
Speaker
And yeah, they're going to play good. And yeah, they're going to win hearts. But playing good and winning hearts isn't how you win the World Cup. You win the World Cup with ruthlessness and goals and and all of that. And that might be where I think we end up wanting a bit with this Japan team. Maybe they prove us wrong. Maybe that collection of players comes together in a way that it works and they take out a high-level team.
00:38:54
Speaker
But it kind of just feels like, ah, Japan played great for 80 minutes. And guess what? Marquinhos scored a center back goal and it didn't.
00:39:04
Speaker
And this is where the sample sizes are so fascinating. Yeah. Because like just looking at the last two tournaments, they beat Spain, Spain. Then they lost to Croatia in penalties. Like the margin is there. Yeah. They played a friendly against England, a friendly.
00:39:24
Speaker
They beat England. The 2024 Asian Cup, they lost to Iran 2-1. And Iran is the type of team that if you could find a team to beat Japan in a physical game, Iran is physical, Iran is tough. and I'm sure they they remember they just kind of snuck out in the lead and Japan huffed and puffed, but down to one against a team that doesn't want you to score.
00:39:47
Speaker
Like it takes that moment. And so like, okay, we've looked at four years. Like you put yourself in that round of 32 against Brazil and maybe it goes well.
00:39:59
Speaker
Maybe you've got Morocco somehow and you're up a goal against Morocco and maybe you beat Morocco and then you're in the next round. But Using the small sample size we have, I think there's something to Japan being a very effective system team and just that system when it comes up against the the best, most physical teams having trouble. And that is kind of an analogy that we see in a lot of sports where you develop a game state model that gets a little bit hit up against the ceiling in one-off, you know,
00:40:34
Speaker
so our competition where the incentives are a little bit different than the overall math of more games, more events, more systeming lets your players shine.
00:40:46
Speaker
There's something to that with this Japan team that I think will probably show its head again somewhere. Are you, uh, are you throwing shade at my Carolina hurricanes? Is that what that last point was? Our, our high level system that always falls short, the Eastern conference finals. Yeah.
00:41:01
Speaker
I mean, I think about the Hurricanes a lot ah in in soccer, i obviously in hockey, but like they're fascinating team to me. I mean, this is this is a soccer podcast. The Hurricanes are like the system NHL team that like bank on it so much, and they've gotten so far, but they never quite get over. But listen, hey, this year, i think this is i think sometimes a system, if you have the best players in the system or very, very good players, it can it could be great, right? And hockey is also a very parody sport.
00:41:30
Speaker
right like You just need to get into the the back half of the tournament enough times. right I think that the Hurricanes are better than Japan are in their respective um endeavors.
00:41:42
Speaker
But there is something to that. Yes, i would I would say there is something to that. Exactly that Hurricanes problem to a lot of teams here, and Japan could be one of them.
00:41:53
Speaker
the The NHL World Cup crossover that you weren't expecting, but you got here on the World Cup After Dark podcast. Again, we love this Japan team. I would love to see them do well. I just have my concerns. and I'm really hoping they're not your dark horses, Inet, because then that would just absolutely sink them. Just to get the rock around the ankle.
00:42:10
Speaker
They, to me, check all the dark horse candidates, except for the injuries are really a bummer and the draw. Yeah. I mean... Can Japan beat Brazil in a one-off game?
00:42:24
Speaker
Absolutely. I think this Brazil team is going to be nasty to be in a one-off game. yeah it's gay It's Gabriel Marquinhos. Are you scoring a goal against them, even if you're Japan?
00:42:39
Speaker
i don't know. It's going to be tricky. So everything that we said nice about Japan, the way that they play, the beauty with which they do it, the systematic approach that they have, go to the complete opposite of the spectrum for the next team they're going to break down. It is the Carthage Eagles. This is Tunisia.
00:42:56
Speaker
Their seventh World Cup, third consecutive appearance. They've never made it past the group stage. They did get a historic win over France in 2022. They admit they breezed through qualifying. The best competition in their group was Equatorial Guinea.
00:43:09
Speaker
Equatorial Guinea ended up the African qualifying group docked nine points, six points for fielding an ineligible player in Emilio Nsue, who then got his eligibility and came back and played. That was a whole deal. And then three because they just straight up didn't show up to play well.
00:43:22
Speaker
That was the type of competition that Tunisia were dealing with. That said, they played 10 games. They won nine of them. They scored 28 goals. And in 10 World Cup qualifying games, Tunisia did not concede a single goal.
00:43:33
Speaker
At this World Cup, that zero goals against is a lot more relevant than the 28 goals for the African qualifying group. Sami Darablisi was their manager in qualifying. He was also their manager at the most recent AFCON.
00:43:44
Speaker
He was sacked after they got dumped by Mali on penalties in the round of 16 at the African Cup Nations. French-Tunisian Sabri Lamucci was named manager in January. His March-friendly results were a nil-nil draw against Canada and a 1-0 win over Haiti.
00:43:59
Speaker
Guess what? You know what you're getting here Interestingly enough, Lamucci came in in almost a bit of a generational shift for this Tunisia side. A couple of the veterans, Yassin Meria, Ali Maul, Osama Haddadi out in defense, Farjan Sassi not in the midfield, Naeem Sliti, who had been a go-to player for this team in attack, retired right before the March window, which makes me think he kind of read the writing on the walls.
00:44:23
Speaker
Dylan Braun was not in the squad for March, but he is back. So there's some interesting shift maybe to younger, more interesting players, but that emit feels more like building towards 2030.
00:44:36
Speaker
And what we're going to get from Tunisia in 2026 is organized defensive play. There's a lot of interesting attackers in this group. They want to see as little of those guys as possible. They want to see as little of the ball and play as possible.
00:44:50
Speaker
Maybe they nick a goal somewhere. But again, three nil nils is kind of their base plan to get out of this group.
00:44:58
Speaker
This is an old school team for international football. They are built to get their way into the knockout round with as little as possible. And then they are meant to advance through each knockout stage as little as possible.
00:45:13
Speaker
They are zero zero They are 1-0. They are 1-1 if they have to and get you to pens. ah endless And listen, like, yeah, they they're not trying to advance out of a knockout round 0-0. But like they are this group is tough.
00:45:26
Speaker
the friendlies are so funny that they played those two games and they get one goal in two games against Haiti and Canada. That is a bad sign. Conceded zero though. Conceded zero. Conceded. Exactly. Which is like what they're putting on their whiteboard. Don't lose. You can't lose. You don't concede.
00:45:44
Speaker
And that is just the mantra of this Tunisian team. And again, to me, I'd find it delightful in a throwback way. And I think the way the game is going, the way the format is going, it is hard to to keep doing this.
00:45:57
Speaker
But they know what they're doing. We saw it at the last World Cups they've been in never really being enough at this level. i think what's tough is that the World Cup qualifying group was so easy. They just were not tested. yeah I think what we saw them last at high level in the AFCON, losing to Mali, a team that's not here. And Mali is fine. Mali had a better midfield than them, but not a good enough attack. It was a zero zero muck, right?
00:46:24
Speaker
Yeah, and they got drilled by Nigeria in the group. Like, they came back because Nigeria let them back. and But they were down 3-0 against Nigeria. That's like the high-level attacking talent, plus some that they're going to see in this group. Yeah. And so if those are your reference points here, like 0-0 grime to Mali, down 3-0 to Nigeria, I mean, then you look across the line. Can you muck Sweden?
00:46:50
Speaker
Maybe. Can you muck Japan? If you're lucky, can you muck the Netherlands? No. So I think they i think they're going to have to do something here to to steal something against Sweden, which they can do, and then see if they can get a point somewhere else. If not, maybe they get through. Listen, if Tunisia's in a knockout game, I'm not going to count them out. I know that they can get you a 0-0 in a knockout game. or make that you know're They're not going to roll over.
00:47:19
Speaker
The group stage specifically is where i'm I'm worried about them. If they need to get goals, where's that going to come from? Yeah. And that I think is the interesting thing about this Tunisia team, as I mentioned, is some of the experienced old hands aren't there.
00:47:32
Speaker
And I don't know that the the players who are coming in in goal and at the back are quite at the level that they're going to need to be to to pull this off. Right. So, so Sabri Ben Hessen and Mohib Jamak both started in goal in those March friendly as they made their second and first cap respectively.
00:47:47
Speaker
In defense, Ali Abdi is probably their highest level player. He's at Nice. He's a left back. He can give them something going forward as well. Everybody else in the defense on this squad, other than Dylan Braun, who, who as I said, is back and should have a role, is pretty super experienced.
00:48:02
Speaker
And they all play the game in March. I don't know what the combination is going to be. I know how they're going to play when they get into that combination. But I don't know if the players who are being asked to play it are going to have enough to do it. El Eskiri at Frankfurt sits in front of the defense. He's a runner and a mucker.
00:48:17
Speaker
Roddy Kadira, who is Sammy Kadira's brother, who just switched to it to Tunisia in March. He's also a runner and a mucker. Norwich's Anas Ben Salam is is physical. He can play the ball a little bit.
00:48:29
Speaker
And at that point of it, we've already kind of committed like seven of our guys to to some level of muck, maybe eight, right? Like there's just not enough in attack here to really feel like they're going be able to create a ton.
00:48:42
Speaker
Firas Chaud is the top scorer in the Tunisian League. He has history of Tunisian. He's going to be the first choice to lead the line. There are some interesting potential flair players that may be starting, maybe bench options. You've got Kali Arney at PSG, Ismael Garby at Augsburg. Ayari is a former French and Spanish youth international. gar Garby is another tricky, and interesting player.
00:49:06
Speaker
And so it kind of comes down to, all right, Can that SPAC 7 or 8, can they be solid enough that you can take a Liberty and play a flair player or two to try and link up with Chaut, who is probably their best chance at scoring a goal here?
00:49:22
Speaker
um Again, I'm not making a great case for them because I don't think there's really a great case to be made. It's tough. If you were going to play this way, I think you needed your front three to be a bit more dynamic without the ball.
00:49:39
Speaker
And I just struggle to see even Ronnie Kadira, I think to me is probably the best player here. Ali Abdi is is good. A good left back. Kadira could pass a little bit, but To who is this is the trouble part.
00:49:53
Speaker
And the other thing is, I think as you illustrated, is you're really counting on these guys, maybe Ayari, maybe Garby, to do something. But also, if you're really going to mock, you need guys that are going to defend. And you know I'm not sure it's those guys. So I think you might be playing some more experienced, boring players on the wing. So it's it's a grimy team. And I just...
00:50:18
Speaker
I, you know, maybe there's not a joke to this. Like maybe they're trying to get three draws. Like, I don't know, especially what happens if they're down a goal, how they get a goal, unless the other team turns off. Like, can they be opportunistic and steal one on the counter? I think they're you're always going to say you're trying to do that. It's just going to be hard for them against the teams they're playing.
00:50:40
Speaker
Now, Sweden, that's not about Sweden. Maybe there's something there. yeah Is there a game where you try to turn it on just for that game? And that's what's interesting is that the first game for Tunisia is Sweden. And so that I think is if you're talking yourself into a case for Tunisia to do something in this group, but you have to at least get a point there. You're not coming back from losing to Sweden. I think it's very hard to envision them coming back from losing to Sweden.
00:51:03
Speaker
So you have to make sure you secure the point. And that's probably their best chance to maybe be adventurous and get something and then hold on. So I think that game is where a lot of this rides for Tunisia. They win that game.
00:51:14
Speaker
Okay. Then you get two chances to at least limit the score and get out of the group or even get a point and get out of the group. think that's the big one for for Tunisia. So let's talk about, go ahead before we talk about Sweden. Yeah.
00:51:28
Speaker
No, I think it's it's not a bad thing for them. That first game is your most amped, your best chance. You just you kind of buy yourself some time if you if you get three. And to the to the start of this team's debate, they're mixing a lot up. I do think they could be a total change up from what we've seen from them just against Sweden.
00:51:50
Speaker
um I mean, it's really, I think it's, you can't ah overstate the changes that they've made here. This backline is very inexperienced and it's hard to play the muck when the guys don't have a coronation. One thing that stood out about Tunisia whenever you watch them is they were very organized. They just, they are very set in their blocks. They're really hard to score against.
00:52:13
Speaker
And so, Is there, ah you know, just a lack of tape on how this team might play with the kind of a newer manager? i mean, yeah, the 0-0 Canada, 1-0 Haiti aren't good to like hang your hat on. But like, is there something there against Sweden that that Sweden is not expecting? You've got that chance in the first game to surprise. think you have to lean on that somehow. Yeah.
00:52:36
Speaker
So let's talk about Sweden a bit. They, as I alluded to earlier, are probably the funniest story from World Cup qualifying. This is their 13th World Cup. They've had a recent history that's fairly sketchy. They've only made one appearance in 2010. That came in 2018.
00:52:49
Speaker
Their qualifying story actually starts in Group 1 of the UEFA Nations League C, where they finished ahead of Slovakia, Estonia, and Azerbaijan. That's key because in Group B of UEFA qualifying, they were horrendous. Two points from six games against Switzerland, Kosovo, and Slovenia.
00:53:07
Speaker
They were beaten twice by Kosovo. They were handily defeated by the Swiss. Well, because of that Nations League campaign, they got a Nations League bailout into the European playoffs. And a whole new team showed up in March. They beat Ukraine 3-1 in Valencia. They beat Poland 3-2 at home in Solna to qualify.
00:53:23
Speaker
ah For those keeping track at home, their are qualifying record, two wins, two draws, and four losses. That is about as bad as you're going to see from anybody at this World Cup. but there's some reason for hope. Graham Potter took over for John Dall Thomason in November.
00:53:35
Speaker
It bore fruit in March. He's got a long-term contract, brought the new manager energy. It may be a bit new style, better new to believe. Call it what you want. It feels like the Sweden team who beat Holden 3-2 is the team we'll get this summer and not the team that lost to Kosovo. The vibes are getting better, but there's still a lot of questions.
00:53:55
Speaker
It's such a weird team to talk about and to think about. And they're different than they were when they – I think you said it perfectly. They looked like a new team in those in in in those two European playoffs. They just were not dynamic. They were flat and lifeless in qualifying. Again, being twice by Kosovo is not good. And Kosovo were not bad. Kosovo played, but – not a serious, serious team. And even against Switzerland, like couldn't have anything. I think the level of this team at Ukraine were kind of handicapped by injuries. It's three, two against Poland. And we saw that game was just kind of an oddly fun set piece goal. Yeah.
00:54:33
Speaker
um fest Fest, like the goals are flying. And I think exactly as we said with like Czechia being like the worst European team here, it's exactly that team of like, we are a European team. Our guys are all good. But like, what do we do that we can hang our hat on? Nothing. And they're better than bowling by a hair. think there's, they're kind of right in that,
00:54:55
Speaker
category And there are some names here and some pedigrees you can talk yourself into, but just don't lose sight of also like this was a 3-2 against Poland in the second European playoff. Like the context matters that they also were bad and qualifying.
00:55:11
Speaker
Yeah, so what can Sweden hang their hat on? What looks to be their calling card? It's their attack, right? That has promise. you You've got Isak, you've got Yacharis, you've got Alanga. That'll play a bit, and they'll probably all play. That's probably your front three in an ideal scenario. You're looking for those three to interchange with each other. You're looking for them to put pressure on the back line. Sweden are counting on those three guys to all show up to this tournament at a high level and play at a high level.
00:55:37
Speaker
A hundred percent. And Isak has had a weird year. He totally like messed up his knee for Liverpool at the start of the year. He's coming back. His knee, I looked at some photos of it at Liverpool training.
00:55:49
Speaker
He's got a big bump in the middle of his knee. It does not look good. Now he's a striker. I think your mobility is less important. I don't know if his top speed is there. The good news is that Jokerez is, i think, coming into his own as a nasty defensive work rate, physical linebacker of a striker. And you need him to do the dirty work to set up the other players.
00:56:11
Speaker
He's good enough to get Sweden some juice and pressure on back lines. Yeah. Ilanga is a very, very fast winger. He kind of does not have the final product. I think that's why his career is kind of not taking the leap you thought this year at Newcastle.
00:56:25
Speaker
But from that front three, the movement and the speed and the pressure is something you have to account for. So to me, this is like a worse version of Norway with slightly worse players.
00:56:37
Speaker
like And what is that in this group? I don't know yet. The defense is oh yeah they're kind of not really good. So you talk about those front three, that's where they're going to hang their hat, and they have to hang their hat on that because it's kind of a mess behind them. Viktor Lindelof is going captain. He's going to start in the defense. i a admit Do you feel good about anything else in this defense and midfield? And I'm using the term midfield here pretty loosely because there might not be a midfield.
00:57:06
Speaker
Yeah, I think Gudmundsen at ah Leeds is a good defender. He leads play a very annoying game mode and he is a good physical player.
00:57:18
Speaker
How does he play next to these other players? I think is a bit of a problem. I think Lindelof is limited mobility. I think that's a problem. The other player I intrigued it with is Benjamin Nygren at Celtic.
00:57:33
Speaker
but He is kind of doesn't factor. Yeah. He doesn't factor in the defense. He's another plum that we're throwing forward to the attack. Yeah. He's the fourth guy. That's going to help the front three kind of get where they need to go and hang in the pockets and be the creative threat.
00:57:47
Speaker
Be a late goal scoring number 10. Yeah. I, I like Goodmanson, everyone else. I'm not buying as much stock. Yeah, and that I think is going to be a problem for them, but it's probably going to be good for us. i think Yasin Ayari might play a box-to-box role. I don't know what that actually looks like with this team.
00:58:06
Speaker
Again, it's kind of the data point that we keep coming back to because Sweden at their best, in scare quotes that we saw in qualifying, was still 3-2 against a pretty limited Poland team, attacking-wise, right?
00:58:17
Speaker
So if that's the type of team that can score two on them, what are Netherlands and Japan going to do? But also, what can Sweden do going back the other way? The platonic ideal of this Sweden team is kind of an outscoring variety. And I think that bodes really well for the neutral.
00:58:34
Speaker
But the second that that front three or front four doesn't connect, things get ugly and things like losing twice to Kosovo is what happens. Yeah, I just don't.
00:58:45
Speaker
I think you're spot on. Like, I'm not sure they can close teams off like they do not have the personnel to to hold teams in. can they get two or three a game? It has got to be what it is. And
00:59:00
Speaker
I don't know. I'm, I think it's going be fun. I think Netherlands, and Japan, like they're also, because when you turn up the events, you can find a game where the ball, ah maybe a longer scores, and then you're really in business or Yaka as like, you know,
00:59:15
Speaker
the set piece thing is, is real here. If you've got, um, two big targets and I think Linda loft and Goodmanson are fine, like center back targets. Like, yeah, we saw that in that polling gate. Like there are guys who can, who can factor in on dead balls here.
00:59:30
Speaker
So i I think that's kind of their maybe going to be their their game is trying to trying to juice the attack as much as possible. Just other player I want to add is Lucas Bergvall. He's at Tottenham.
00:59:43
Speaker
He is a passing midfielder, not very strong physically. He could help the attack, like be fun and creative. Not going to help you defensively. This team is going to be caught out if they come up the field.
00:59:57
Speaker
But can they steal goals against against set pieces and on counters? You have to respect that. Maybe there'll be some space. They need to never be down two. They need to stay within one, I think, in especially even lead and try to keep running it up is their best way to snowball.
01:00:13
Speaker
And we just talked about it, but their opening game against Tunisia and Monterey, you have to hope that that attacking quartet comes out firing and that that turns into an easy three points in the bank because that opens up a much better roadmap going forward than if you stumble somewhere in that game. 100%. That's going to be a fun game because of the stakes.
01:00:35
Speaker
Other thing here, like the goalkeepers are not very great. Victor Johansson at Stoke. Zetterstrom at Derby County. i'm you mean, they're championship level goalkeepers. I think the goalkeepers elsewhere are better in this group. So
01:00:54
Speaker
can you like can you just can can you play a dice roll game and get lucky once and a half is maybe their their path to get through? Yeah, and like again, are we putting more stock in the like the potential turnaround they showed in March, or are we putting stock at the fact that we watched these teams for three months in qualifying and they gave us absolutely nothing?
01:01:18
Speaker
Yeah, i I think one thing we did see for them against Ukraine and Poland is if your back line is dynamic, they can take advantage. And so I think that helps them against Tunisia. Like they should be able to beat Tunisia and go through as a third place team.
01:01:34
Speaker
I think their ceiling is anyone that, you know, can close them off a little bit and be athletic. That's that's where then their ceiling is. Tunisia might be right at the bar below the bar.
01:01:45
Speaker
I, this, this to me could be a third place team gets the 32 and is one of the easy round of 32 games. Seems to me like generally what they should be. Yeah. But also can they lose to the Netherlands, Japan by enough of like, this could be a team that falls in the third place table and all of a sudden Japan, like just have 25 incredible minutes where they score three times and you lose that game for one and your third place table is not looking so great.
01:02:11
Speaker
So those are going to be the things to look forward going forward. I agree with you. And that's why they need to, if they're down three or four is scored the back of the back door. yeah And like, that is going to be a weird thing that matters in this world's cup. And hopefully they they're aware of that. So that could be their way to make it five, three, right? Like yes that could be their path to sneaking through. If Tunisia wind is there on the first day. Yeah. And they, they look and they need to, they need to score multiple against Tunisia, right? Like that's a matchup that you're definitely hoping that, that Sweden are taking advantage of. all right if there's one game for this group, you're watching a minute, which is it going to be? There's some interesting ones. I'm somehow going to think that any of the Tunisia games are not going to make the top of this list.
01:02:53
Speaker
Well, I think we've talked or not talked us into. We've circled the stakes on Sweden, Tunisia being a ah great, important game. but But I think, listen, it's Netherlands, Japan. Here is what you want to see to attacking teams that have to attack. See if they're revving up the engines against each other. it should be pretty beautiful soccer. Like, that's fun.
01:03:12
Speaker
Yeah, and it's the first game of the group stage. It's a real chance to to lay out a marker and and get yourself off on the right foot. Japan-Sweden could also be be similar here. It kind of sits in in the hipster football circle, right? Like, there's going to be a lot of movement in that game. Probably more of it coming from the Japanese side because it's just like,
01:03:29
Speaker
Do you want to see what happens when a very organized, disciplined team comes up against a team that is kind of a mess in the midfield and defense? Like, yeah, Japan, there's a scenario in which Japan score like six times that game Because I watched them play Qatar in Saudi Arabia. And like, there are some similarities there to what this Sweden team will will be bringing at them.
01:03:46
Speaker
all right. ah The numbers here, Amit, do the numbers play out as stratified as as maybe we might think of this group? they're They're looking that way. Netherlands is you know, kind of a 14 to 1 favorite to advance or the other, you know, the other way, whatever. Like, it's it's pretty good. It's over 90%. Japan is kind of at... um you know, 80% or so. And even Sweden is up towards 50, 60%.
01:04:19
Speaker
Tunisia is at less than 50, I think plus 130 for them to advance is kind of fair. I think if anything, you know, the the bookies think that Sweden's going to get through pretty comfortably as a third place team, which to me is generous given that we've identified The resume of Sweden is like you know ah suspicious for a reason. like like But the fourth place team is Tunisia here. And so maybe that that works for them. i think some other things you can look at. You know you have Netherlands, Japan, 1-2 is plus 300. That's some decent value. Again, we're not a gambling podcast. Just trying to see if there's anything out there.
01:05:00
Speaker
um you You might like that if you feel pretty good about Netherlands, Japan being the top two. The other funny one, i think, is Tunisia to finish bottom is minus 125. Again, we've laid out the case that they're going to play like ah for three draws. And look, like you know it's it's minus money. It's over But like...
01:05:20
Speaker
i I mean, ask anyone, ask anyone, ask everyone who's got a take. Like, do you think Tunisia is not going to finish bottom? So like, could be something there. And I think just, you know, ah in terms of the draw, if Netherlands wins, yes, that first game is hard, but the next game is is doable for sure. Yeah. So I think there's some value in Netherlands to make the quarterfinals at plus 180.
01:05:42
Speaker
um And then maybe on the coin toss that they could win that something happens. You might like Netherlands to make the semifinals at plus 450. Again, this is a team that has made lots of semifinals. They're always kind of right there. I would not take them as a winner here. Again, we've pretty capped ceiling, but I think they have a very high floor. So some, some things are there, I generally have some Netherlands to be a pretty reliable quarterfinalist stock.
01:06:05
Speaker
And I guess both of us are pretty, pretty not buying the Tunisia thing that we, we know we get from them again. They've never made it out of the group stage. Yeah, it's just like the level necessary to pull off the shtick that they're going to pull off is probably just way higher than the level that they have. I think that's kind of my Tunisian takeaway. I'm looking forward to this group. I'm particularly looking forward to the match day one because I think we're going to get a pretty good handle on these teams after match day one. And then it really sets the stage up for, I think, interest going forward in this group.
01:06:36
Speaker
But that Japan-Netherlands game, like you talked about, is great. And I think we we spent a pretty good time here talking about the stakes between ah Tunisia and Sweden in that opening game. so Should be a fun one. If you like what we do here on the World Cup After Dark Podcast and want to support us, you can do that at patreon.com slash WCAD. Three bucks a month, access to subscriber-only content.
01:06:54
Speaker
On that Patreon page, free to all, you've got our World Cup preview hub, which is where you can check out all of our World Cup previews for each of the 12 groups like this one that you heard today. We've got plenty more to come before the World Cup starts, and obviously we'll have tons and tons of content during the World Cup itself.
01:07:10
Speaker
So we hope that you joined and enjoyed today's show, and we will catch you guys soon.