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WCAD 4-9: Group E Preview with USA TODAY's Jon Arnold
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Jon Arnold returns for another World Cup Group Preview as this time the guys look at Group E. A re-vamped Germany lead the way, followed by a pair of physical dark horse contenders in Ecuador (the second-best team in South American qualifying) and Ivory Coast (full of young talent). Curaçao, one of the most intriguingly assembled teams of the World Cup, round out the group.
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Transcript
Introduction of John Arnold and World Cup Group Discussion
00:00:01
Speaker
I'm it. John Arnold must have had so much fun previewing the last group with us that he wanted to come back and do it again. The man loves CONCACAF. What else can we
Surprise Team: Curacao's Challenges and Prospects
00:00:10
Speaker
say? We had a blast talking about Mexico. Really fun group. And we've got another CONCACAF treat. a delight for the fans out there today.
00:00:18
Speaker
Not only, John Arnold, do you love CONCACAF, you're going to get to talk Curacao. You're also going to get to talk what I think is probably the most physical group in the World Cup with Ecuador and Ivory Coast joining Germany.
The Physicality of Group E: Germany, Ecuador, and Ivory Coast
00:00:28
Speaker
Did you bring your shoulder pads for this one?
00:00:30
Speaker
ah You know, when it's a bruiser, you got to bring in the big muscle man and myself, you know, maybe one day I'll take creatine or whatever I'm supposed to be doing. It's great to have you back, John. we are We are thrilled to be breaking down Group E with you today. um What are your overall thoughts here? I mentioned the physicality of this group. We'll see how that relates to Curacao in a bit. Germany, I think, are an intriguing top team here because – What does top mean in this day and age for German football? I think is a valid question.
00:01:05
Speaker
This group, I think maybe if there's a surprise to be had, it could come here because I think Ecuador and Ivory Coast are two really good middle tier teams here.
Germany's Uncertain Standing and Tactical Challenges
00:01:15
Speaker
Yeah, definitely. I mean, I think it's a balanced group, except for Curacao, as we'll get into. you know it's ah It's three teams that we've seen have some level of success on their continents.
00:01:25
Speaker
and We don't need to explain Germany to people who are soccer fans, but like Ivory Coast recently won an African championship. You guys have chronicled, well, the rise of Ecuador and the fact that they've sort suddenly kind of become a player development factory and they've got all these guys on the biggest stage. And we'll get into all the individual teams. But I think like those three teams,
00:01:45
Speaker
maybe have the least separating them of any other kind of top three teams in a group.
Strategic Opportunities for Germany, Ecuador, and Ivory Coast
00:01:50
Speaker
And I think that's what makes it compelling even more. So I guess, because they could all get through and probably will, because you kind of have what we expect to be a doormat in the group, but you know, maybe the doormat can have a hole in it. Someone will fall through.
00:02:05
Speaker
a bit it's ah It's physical between Ecuador and Cote d'Avoie. It's a clash of styles, perhaps, with Germany. And as John alluded to, it's a fourth team in this group that gives hope to the other three teams that if they take care of business and get to the magic three points and a good goal differential, they'll all be going through and playing knockout round football.
00:02:25
Speaker
Yeah, I think we we're all locked in that perhaps all three should go through and all three should be
Germany's Recent World Cup Performances
00:02:31
Speaker
dangerous. um This to me in past years would be a classic group of death.
00:02:36
Speaker
Two teams go through, someone good is getting left home. This has happened to Germany twice in the last two World Cups. They've gotten dumped in the group stage. This is kind of the exact recipe.
00:02:47
Speaker
um for ah a team like Germany to to get left home, except not anymore with ah with this format. um You know, I do think there's going to be some surprises and a good team or two left out of the knockout stage.
00:03:02
Speaker
You never know where
Talent Gap and Germany's Football Evolution
00:03:03
Speaker
that could be. I mean, you're generally looking at these groups with a soft, I'm putting in air quotes, fourth team as not that scenario, but you never know here, right? One hole in the doormat, things could get a little...
00:03:15
Speaker
um awry And, you know, I think also the point I agree with a lot that John said is that these three teams are very close to each other on talent. That's very competitive group, very fun level. This is this is going to be some really exciting physical bruising soccer, even with Germany. I think they're theirre physical team, too. So it's going to be electric. And what's interesting here is, right, if you look at this group, John, and maybe you've kind of tuned out of international football for a bit, or maybe you kind of haven't been locked in, not you, but you know, you in the in the general sense of of the you, maybe you you see this group, you say, out Germany, they're a classic, right? You know them from past World Cups, ah and Ecuador and Ivory Coast are a bit more of an unknown. But as I said, Germany, Where these teams are in this day and age and coming into this World Cup, there's a case to be made that Ecuador have at at points been the second best team in South America. They were the second best team in South America World Cup qualifying.
00:04:14
Speaker
There's a case to be made that Ivory Coast have over the last two to three years at points been the best team in Africa, right? As you said, the gap here is not maybe what it would appear on general pedigree and looking back to maybe where things were 10, 15 years ago.
00:04:29
Speaker
Well, I think in a way it's a litmus test of, yeah, how much people have been paying attention because, you know, we still in the CONCACAF region, people have this idea of like, well, why isn't Mexico beating whoever, you know, Honduras 5-0?
Player Recruitment and Development Trends
00:04:42
Speaker
Why isn't the U.S. beating Grenada 8-1 or whatever? We used to do that. We used to do that. And I think like you look and it's like things have happened to close that gap, not just...
00:04:53
Speaker
Like when you say that in CONCAC, I think people are like, oh, you're criticizing Mexico or the US. And it's like, not necessarily like that progress doesn't negate other teams also getting better. And I think Ecuador is a great example. Ivory Coast, like people, you know, like, yes, Ivory Coast has had their moments in the past, more so than Ecuador. But... Yeah, i mean, I think like really when you look at like how player recruitment has affected international soccer, obviously that comes into into play when we're talking about the Ivory Coast. When talk about a couple great youth development clubs in a country, how they can change the course of ah a national team's a path, that comes into play when we're talking about Ecuador.
00:05:30
Speaker
And I think also the limitations at times of – being a superpower where, you know, Germany, yes, they put it together this master plan to win the World Cup. Yes, it eventually worked. But then like, how do you keep winning? How do you keep being better than the other superpowers? And how do you not stall to a point where you say, oh, that system that we developed that we thought was the best and we kind of confirmed was the best by lifting the World Cup trophy?
00:05:56
Speaker
we don't know how to modify that a little bit here, a little bit there to keep being the absolute best. International sports are hard. And I think like this group is like kind of alluding to like a good kind of like reflection of that, where ah even the fact that Curacao is here, right? Like talk about a story of recruitment and and how do you get better? And can you do something that seems improbable for a very small place?
00:06:18
Speaker
um I think that you really see like in a way, in a funny way, maybe other groups can, we could, make the same case, but like this sort of encapsulates what international soccer has been over the last 10 years.
00:06:28
Speaker
Yeah, and I think Curacao are a perfect point here because it's, okay, what do you do when you don't have any of those three things that you talked right? When you don't have the the means or or the resources that a Germany or an Ecuador have, or you don't have as widespread of a player group to call from light like the Ivory Coast maybe can, what is international soccer like for the teams that are below that? And I think Curacao are a great example of that.
00:06:51
Speaker
Amit, the draw here is very interesting because it could be very difficult.
Germany's Knockout Path and Strategic Considerations
00:06:57
Speaker
right so So the group winner is going to take their spin at the third place picker wheel in Foxborough. But then in the round of 16, the most likely outcome is that that's going to be France because it's the winner of the France group or another third place team.
00:07:09
Speaker
If they somehow get past that, then the Netherlands group winner is also in the quadrant. We talked about how that is a difficult group. It's not a very kind path to the group winner. The runner up is not a great path necessarily either because they have the runner up of the France group, which could be obviously Senegal or Norway in the round of 32.
00:07:28
Speaker
And then in the round of 16, they're looking at the winner of the Brazil Morocco group, which is group C or the runner up of that Netherlands, Japan, Sweden group. Mexico and England group winners are also in the quadrant.
00:07:40
Speaker
This is a draw that could place the ceiling not just on how far Germany gets, but how far a good story like Ecuador or Ivory Coast gets. It's a fascinating draw. And obviously France loom over everything. They're one of the best teams here. There's a sneaky case to be made that you don't want to win to avoid France and get on the other side of the bracket.
00:08:02
Speaker
That's not really how things work. I don't think you you do that because you try to win one game at a time. I think you really would love that round of 32 game against a third place team instead of Senegal, Norway and a good pair.
00:08:14
Speaker
pairing for this group, two very similar groups, both have three good teams. That's not an easy game. So like, I don't actually believe that, but you know from the nerd point of view, when you are thinking about your title hopes, your big picture macro maximizing that, yeah, I think you'd rather be in the path where Brazil or Morocco is a very beatable opponent for any of these three teams.
00:08:40
Speaker
And yeah, I mean, England is is is a problem, but that side of the bracket I think is more manageable. I mean, some of that is France, and no one wants to be scared of France, but I think...
00:08:51
Speaker
Germany, France, we've we've seen that before, and we're going to talk about it. That's a tough matchup, and I think it' would be tough for the other two teams here.
Unpredictability of World Cup Outcomes
00:08:59
Speaker
What's crazy is that third-place teams also were dangerous, and the third-place team here will be dangerous somewhere else, ah and maybe Curacao sneaks in and would be less dangerous, but...
00:09:13
Speaker
It's so hard to to predict these things. um ah This draw is going to be really weird to see which team gets spit out into that Brazil-Morocco game. If they can get there, I think that team will have a very sneaky quarterfinal chance um at the top of the podcast. some Some stock to be had for whoever you think could be in that second place slot here.
00:09:34
Speaker
We haven't spent a ton of time on trying to map out the third place possibilities. I don't know that there's a ton of energy that we need to spend, but the good folks at the New York Times the upshot did spend a lot of that energy and they did come up with some probability numbers. And John, the third place numbers here give a greater chance for this team to end up as a round of 32 opponent in Mexico City against the winner of the Mexico group.
00:09:59
Speaker
but then awaiting in the round of 16 is the winner of the England group. So there's probably not a good path to be had wherever you end up here. I appreciate him bringing his youth to the show, saying that they're big picture of maxing. I mean, it needs to be big picture maxing. I like that.
00:10:14
Speaker
Yeah. Look, I think like, yeah, it's kind of, how do you play the, this world cup is one where I think like it's thwarted the idea of like, Hey, like let's map something out even for us in the ah and the analysis. Um,
00:10:27
Speaker
That's great that they crunched the numbers. That's definitely a potential path, but it just seems like so many other things could happen, that there's so many kind of chaos possibilities with the third place. And even I think one of the chaos possibilities you might get into is like, there's nothing that says Germany can't be that third place team. Sure. Which would also really throw a wrench into this whole like Mexico path that we talked about the last time I was here, where it's like, well, surely they'll get an easy first knockout game and then they'll lose to England. And it's like, yeah, maybe not.
00:10:53
Speaker
Maybe not. yeah So, um man, it's... i the field expanding didn't go as poorly as I thought, but the third place, some of them getting through has made this sort of like pre-tournament conversation totally chaotic. It's made it really hard to map all of those things out. And it's also just made it really unknown because, all right, so there's a 13% chance that it's that, but then there's a bunch of other 4% chances. And I admit i know that you're a big numbers guy. You like the numbers. It's so hard to read it. And it's just like, it's just going to be this,
00:11:26
Speaker
We're going to be opening these presents at the end of the group stage, which is like, oh, that's what ended up happening. And it's just going to give us ah a fascinating look into a into the knockout
Germany's Legacy and System of Play
00:11:34
Speaker
stage. All right. lets Let's start breaking down these teams. We will start with the team out of pot one, which is Germany. This is their 20th World Cup. If you include the World Cups from West Germany, they are one of the most successful teams here.
00:11:47
Speaker
Four-time winners in 1954, 1974, 1990, and of course, most recently in 2014. They've made the final on four other occasions, semi-finalists in 2006 and 2010.
00:11:58
Speaker
But since that last title, two group stage exits in a row in 2018 and 2022. 2022, they got group of deaths. They tied Spain, beat Costa Rica, and lost to Japan and were eliminated.
00:12:11
Speaker
They haven't had great runs at the European Championships either. They made the round of 16 in 2020 and then in the quarterfinals in 2024, lost to England and Spain in those games. Qualification was not particularly difficult. They went five and one against Slovakia, Northern Ireland and Luxembourg. They didn't lose their opening game against Slovakia, but were never really put under pressure since then.
00:12:31
Speaker
Amid, it kind of feels like as we kind of shift into talking about Julian Nagelsmann, the manager here, this might be the eighth best team in the world. And we're kind of asking the question, how far can that team get in this day and age?
00:12:48
Speaker
Yeah, I think John talked about this in an interesting way that 10 years ago, 15 years ago, right? Germany was the World Cup. They were the top of the pile. They had been knocking on the door. And I think, you know, growing up, Germany was like right there with Brazil as the best, second best footballing nation in the world. You know, then there's Italy, too. And That run in the 2000s, it was just, it felt like that. They were the machine, they were inevitable. It was a developed monster. And then they that Brazil question. They answered that Brazil question in 2014, right? They met him in the semi-finally beat him 7-1. Yeah, in a resounding, resounding way. And then, since then, it is kind of...
00:13:27
Speaker
not been bad, but it's been this interesting question of where the soccer world is, of trying to keep up with the elites. And France and England and Spain have kind of taken over. And then Brazil and Argentina are, well, Brazil, but Brazil and Argentina are still good. So then we talked about exactly where in the world they are. And we did this on our Netherlands podcast. And I had Netherlands at seventh or so.
00:13:48
Speaker
And maybe I was forgetting Germany. I didn't even, if you go back and listen to that, I didn't even mention Germany. And I think Germany and Netherlands are actually right there. And they're two very good teams. And maybe you'd recognize some of the German talent a little bit more, but I think it's a similar level. And so this team and German soccer is very system-based. They produce a lot of guys that play this German ideal of pressing and Red Bull and Nagelsmann is a is ah ah picture of all of that.
00:14:20
Speaker
But it's a system style, and maybe it's about elevating your average player to be able to perform at a Champions League level. But where are the superstars?
00:14:31
Speaker
Now, there are a few in this German squad. The issue is, at the very top level, Germany are great, is that the top handful of teams have like just more superstars. And...
00:14:42
Speaker
Is that just a quirk of the last 10 years of development? Is that actually a result of years and years of secret arms races that we can't we can't really answer? i don't know if we can answer that, but I think very clearly Germany here is a little bit outside the top, and it's on Nagelsmann to try to massage this group playing a very idealistic brand of soccer to punch above their
Tactical Approaches and Player Dynamics in Germany
00:15:03
Speaker
weight.
00:15:03
Speaker
It's a good team to do that, but this is not your top four in the world Germany team that you should expect. And it's interesting, Amit, because when we talk about massaging the style to punch above their weight, there's multiple ways to do that, right? And um a lot of teams in this day and age, the way that they do that is choke off chances, low event football, back the other way. That's not what we're going to see from Germany.
00:15:25
Speaker
No, it's going to be about midfield transition game. It's, you know, Nagelsmann is a Red Bull guy. He was at Leipzig. That's where he, you know, got his name. He ah made a Champions League semifinal with them in his stint, I think in the late 2019. Then he went to Bayern and it didn't quite work out for him. They kind of canned him in his second season, even though he was still at the top of the league. He was like a point behind Dortmund and they said...
00:15:51
Speaker
by. He was replaced by Tuchel, the England manager who we'll talk about on the England podcast. He replaced Hansi Flick at Germany. um He is just a very German manager of ideas, but he is not so committed to the Red Bull soccer as maybe Ralf Ragnick at Austria or um you know, like the the entire Red Bull model, he is more like Flick in that he likes pretty attacking soccer, game control, and counter-pressing, even like Jurgen Klopp in that sense. So they're going to play very, very attacking soccer. They want the open game. They want their best attackers to have the ball as much as possible.
00:16:28
Speaker
It makes defending in space hard, but they want to win by scoring three, four goals. And I think that is their best recipe here, given their midfield engines and attacking creative talent.
00:16:39
Speaker
But perhaps the biggest holes in the squad are at striker and at fullback, which are kind of two very important positions for what they're trying to do. Yeah, and fullback as a whole is interesting as we we talk about the squad. They have answers. It's maybe just not as elite as the top teams, but striker, definitely. i think you look at England, you've got Harry Kane, you look at France, you've got Kylian Mbappe, and here it's Nick Valtemada and Dennis Undov are your top number nines. And I think Germany has kind of just had a hole at the number nine for the
00:17:11
Speaker
for the past while. And that kind of sunk them at 2018, sunk them 2022. You know, it was Nicholas Fulkrug was the guy. um Kind of post-Miraslav Klosa. And in 2014, they had a bunch of cool attacking midfielders.
00:17:26
Speaker
Thomas Muller was the heart of that. Goza. This team has a lot of cool attacking midfielders, but in modern soccer, can you win at the highest level without a number nine being elite? Well, Spain are going to try the same thing too. So it's a question that's not uncommon, but it's difficult.
00:17:41
Speaker
As we start talking about the squad, John, the goalkeeper situation here was pretty interesting, right? So Manuel Neuer a while ago said, I'm done with the German national team. I'm good. Thanks for everything. Hanging up the gloves. And they kind of transitioned away from him. They move on to to Oliver Bauman, Alexander Neubel is also in the picture. And then it comes out like two weeks ago that,
00:18:03
Speaker
Manuel Neuer is going to be the goalkeeper for Germany at the World Cup. And it's some criticism, maybe perhaps for Nagelsmann in that, some criticism perhaps for Neuer, but it feels like he's probably still their best option.
00:18:16
Speaker
Well, it's the first time that Nagelsmann has been called the German Miguel Herrera because this is like a classic where Herrera takes over Costa Rica, brings back Kehler Navas, even though he's
Germany's Defensive and Midfield Analysis
00:18:27
Speaker
retired. And of course it worked out great. And that's why we'll be previewing Costa Rica later. Oh I did it. That didn't happen, but it wasn't Kaler's fault. I think this is fine. I mean, goalkeeper is such a weird position. I think goalkeepers, A, like are self-aware enough to be like time to hang it up, time to go on to the next generation in a way that like maybe some other players, you know, in positions on the field generally aren't.
00:18:46
Speaker
But then also they can just keep playing. Neuer, look like, ooh, he looks good at the top level. Like, yeah. I feel like he's at that point where people are just trying to poke holes in what he does, but I have no problem with him being there. I think, you know, and and certainly trust like the dynamic of the squad internally. It seems, you know, we talk about like you want a leader and you want these guys who have been there before and you want, and like, who is that? If not Neuer, right? Like that is what he will bring. And I think when he's playing for, you know, Bayern Munich and top, top level European club matches, he still looks fine to me. So yeah.
00:19:24
Speaker
Amit, that one's on me. We brought the CONCACAF guy on. I gave him a question. It was obvious he was going to somehow pivot it back to Bigel Herrera in Costa Rica. I'll take the blame for that one. That one's on me. Walk me through the back line here, Amit.
00:19:36
Speaker
Yeah, this team has a lot of center backs, and they're a little light on fullback. Center backs are great, though. Antonio Rudiger at Real Madrid, still elite. He's 33, but you know he held his own against Erling Haaland in that UCL round of 16. I think still trust him first on the team sheet.
00:19:52
Speaker
and Then there's a lot of other options. I think probably next is Jonathan Ta at Bayern. He's a little slow, but an excellent, excellent defender at everything else. I would imagine that is your top two pairing. But if you want, you can throw in Malik Tia at Newcastle.
00:20:08
Speaker
Nico Schlatterbeck is like your bog standard German center back at Dortmund. Waldemar Anton, another bog standard center back in Germany. So like center back plus position. um They should be great here.
00:20:22
Speaker
Right back, they don't really have one. And so they play Joshua Kimmich there. He's a center mid. Now, Bayern and Germany do this all the time. Center backs, full backs are the same thing sometimes in Germany. You can you can just do that. Kimmich is pretty experienced here. They've been playing him throughout most qualifying. um I don't think this is an issue necessarily, but the depth behind him, there's not really a lot of right backs here to play the spot. That could be an issue.
00:20:48
Speaker
Left back, you've got David Raum at Leipzig. He's very fast, good crosser, covers a lot of ground. But outside of him, then you're looking at Nathaniel Brown at Frankfurt. He's 22. He's a Bundesliga left back, but he's a little unproven.
00:21:00
Speaker
And Raum also doesn't play a ton of matches consistently or in the German team. They mix and match him. So I'm loving the center backs. I'm just a little worried about the fullback depth and...
00:21:13
Speaker
Kimmich should be fine, but at the highest level, can you pick on a midfielder at right back? Bayern sometimes get exposed in this sense, too, when you're playing elite wingers in the world. this is just the germany This isn't a new problem to Germany.
00:21:26
Speaker
And it feels like that's a question we're asking about a lot of teams here, right? Like it it feels like where are the good fullbacks in world football in this day and age? and And it's a question that you and I have kind of come back to on a lot of these shows is what happens when these guys come up against elite wingers? Because there's a lot of those around the world. It's a question for Germany. It's a question for a lot of other teams. But I mean, the midfield engine here is probably crucial to what they are trying to do. And it is probably their strongest spot on the pitch.
00:21:52
Speaker
Yeah, to play the German style, you need two holding midfielders that are very athletic, can cover a lot of ground, can press. Well, you've got that here. You've just got Bayern's central midfield. ah Even if Kimmich is the right back, you've got Leon Goretzka, Alexander Pavlovich,
00:22:07
Speaker
Very good, can roll them out, can do everything you need. um Now, Goretzka isn't starting at Bayern because he sits behind Kimmich and Povolovic, but if they don't want to start him, Pascal Gross at Brighton, good player, good passer, can actually you know add a little dimension into that attack. Felix Emeka at Dortmund, also a good holder. So that's four good center mids right there. You like that you like that depth.
00:22:33
Speaker
And then the attacking midfielders, which there are a lot of. This is Germany's, I think, X factor, their plus position. You look at two guys on the team sheet, you've got potential superstars, or they are superstars, depending on what you believe. um Jamal Musiala hadn't had a great year at Bayern, but he's broken out for Germany before. We saw him be really dangerous at the Euros, great dribbler. And then there's Florian Wurz, who was at Leverkusen. He was a star for for Germany at Euro 24.
00:22:59
Speaker
And I think he is the guy that can lift Germany ceiling to being a top four or five team in the world with his creativity, his ability to unlock a defense, his ability to go anywhere, do anything on the ball, is a very high work rate to make himself available and make things happen.
00:23:15
Speaker
This year at Liverpool, every Liverpool fan got really mad at Arn Slott for saying, you're not using Wurzright. We paid... 100 million plus for this guy. And he's not performing in Liverpool. And everyone made fun of Arn Slott, who I think is a fine manager. But everyone said, just wait, just wait until he gets to Germany. And Nagelsmann gets his hands on him. So listen, dude do I know exactly where he's going What is he to do No. But I know that Nagelsmann is like, this is my shiny toy to like do everything, especially with a team without a striker. There's a lot on words here to to create. And then even then, one more player that could be an X-factor is Lennart Karl.
00:23:50
Speaker
He's 17 years old at Bayern. He plays for Bayern because Bayern play their kids a lot because they have a lot of league matches to do that. um He's very exciting on the ball. I think he could also be, maybe if he gets on the field and shines, you can't keep him off the field. So Germany don't really have a winger. Like they don't have wingers. Their best winger is Leroy Sané, who is washed at Galatasaray, not very fast anymore. But they have three 10s they'll just play them all and they'll all do...
00:24:13
Speaker
dribbly, fun, creative things. It's very German. They're going to win the ball and these guys are just going to drive at you, drive at you, dribble, ask questions. It's going to be fun. And it could have been even better. Serge Gnabry is not here. He's out injured.
00:24:26
Speaker
Yeah, they I think they are going to miss him. Bayern missed him for sure. I think Gnabry was playing better than Musiala this season and kind of forced Musiala to the bench. they will They will miss his attacking a lot. Bayern did. Germany will. That is ah a capping factor, perhaps.
00:24:41
Speaker
So John, so often these conversations about whether they're elite national teams, whether they're mid-tier national teams, whether they're bottom-tier national teams comes down to the same sort of questions. And one of those questions that Amit and I find ourselves asking so, so often is, all right, it's cute what you're doing in the midfield. You got all these tens you're going put on the pitch. You've got a solid defense. We like what you're doing in goal.
00:25:03
Speaker
Where are your goals coming from? And that kind of feels like it could be a question here for Germany. And it's kind of been a question for Germany for some time. I think even look at Bayern and like, it's somewhat reductive maybe, but like, there's a reason that Bayern got Harry Kane, who is not German. ah You know, like, I think if there were a German number nine, just smashing in the goals, finishing the plays and but but even like go back, right? Like, Bayern have had this sort of like traditional most of a foreign number nine smashing it in as the other 10 guys, German generally behind them, make it happen. Or like maybe Turkish international the German born or whatever. Right. So I think like you see that there has been this sort of quest.
00:25:44
Speaker
admit like that's one of the reasons I was a little surprised to see that Said Elmala, the colon like super prospect who's like this massive teenager. I think he's like 6'3 or something.
00:25:54
Speaker
Had a great season and is like kind of feisty that he didn't make the squad. I don't know how realistic his chances were and like definitely unproven at like a World Cup level. But like to me, he maybe could be that guy, but like he's not there this time around. So.
00:26:10
Speaker
Yeah, I think Havertz and Voltemata were the two strikers you expected to be here on terms of profile. Havertz at Arsenal, Voltemata, Newcastle. I mean, there's a case they should have brought him. I think the third striker here, the German striker you brought was Denis Undov at Stuttgart. And he is...
00:26:26
Speaker
Good, but like is he a difference maker? What is your third striker? Do you want a guy that can you know elevate you or have a flash? So it's interesting. I think this group on the whole is fine. They're system strikers.
Germany's Group Challenges and Tournament Path
00:26:41
Speaker
Like, Valtamata is a guy who's tall and you cross to him, but he doesn't do a lot else and kind of didn't flash at Newcastle.
00:26:49
Speaker
Havertz is a good player. he He works really well for Arsenal. He's a very good header. He's deceptively a good header. He's not super tall and he's a great presser, a great runner. um He's kind of also very good at getting shots in the box like Thomas Muller. He's just not as good of a passer, but like you don't need him to pass when you're the striker. So can this weird combo of players work with the players behind them?
00:27:11
Speaker
but Listen, I think Nagelsmann is going to put out a pretty attack, but if they feed, you know, you've seen this for Germany, 2xg, 3xg, are you getting two or three goals? Are these guys going to finish those chances at the rate you need?
00:27:25
Speaker
I mean, we can answer that question. i don't but But the fact that it a question, I think, is the ceiling on this Germany team. And it's so interesting because this group will ask them that question kind of right away, right? Okay, their first game is against Curacao. We'll see what type of questions are asked in that game. But the second and third game here, Ecuador and Ivory Coast...
00:27:48
Speaker
physical, imposing defensive teams that will kind of look at this a minute and say, we don't really need to back off this Germany team. Like they can muck things up in that midfield machine that they're trying to get running and ask these guys, can you operate in tight spaces and score goals in positions where it's not easy to score goals? And it's super fascinating from that perspective, I think.
00:28:11
Speaker
Yeah, and I think those two teams are going to have a lot of joy in the counterattack against Germany when they commit numbers forward, because Nagelsmann will commit bodies forward. um Let's see. i mean, maybe after two games or three games, I could feel a lot better about this team. Like, it's all working, Wurtz Musiala are creating, and...
00:28:32
Speaker
it It looks really great or they could be frustrated by two very good defenses and be looking at a tougher path. I this Germany team is very hard to project for me also because of their qualifying.
00:28:45
Speaker
I just didn't really see the question being asked of them at this level. John, what do you think the ceiling is here?
00:28:55
Speaker
Yeah, maybe semifinals, right? Like, I don't know. Like, it's like, yeah, I could see them making an amazing run and like getting quite deep, but it's really difficult to imagine them lifting the trophy. I think like the the attacking sort of like...
00:29:11
Speaker
that those questions i think are are really critical and like when we have yes it's been limited maybe this new uefa format that doesn't really make i don't understand but like maybe it's going to be better and like that we will see those questions in qualification or we will this will help a team like germany or netherlands whatever kind of push but maybe not right but this is the reality we live in right now we haven't seen them do that against top teams and when they have as you mentioned in austin in like the recent history they just haven't been able to do it like they haven't been able to get wins they haven't been able to be crafty I think Nagelsmann is clever. I think he's smart, but I do wonder kind of how the his ideas and the kind of club manager an international game, I think that mesh has a limit on it. So I would say the ceiling is the semifinals. And I probably wouldn't pick them to even get there. And the thing is, Amit,
00:29:58
Speaker
They don't have to do it. They're going to have to do it multiple times against high-level teams, right? The draw has kind of, and we'll see what it actually ends up being. But on paper, it looks like if Germany are going to make this any final, so they're going to make the final, they're going to have to go through just about every other favorite on their way there.
00:30:15
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's the question you're seeing on the top teams at this tournament is that, yes, could they beat France once if you play that game ah enough times? Well, you only get to to play it once, but yes, they could. But then to do it two more times, that's the that's the trouble with the repeatability of of their style. So I think we're kind of in agreement. This team could...
00:30:36
Speaker
make a run but i think we all maybe wouldn't even pick them to to get past the quarterfinals i think that's probably their most likely exit or maybe if they win this group france is a team that dumps them look it's it's easy to say they got dumped out of the group stage twice this is a team likely to fall short again of their lofty expectations but that's the truth of the the environment here it's very very competitive they're not at that top level One of the up and coming teams in international football and in football in general is
Ecuador's Defensive Strength and World Cup Potential
00:31:06
Speaker
Ecuador. They're making their fifth World Cup appearance. All of those appearances have come since 2002. They've made three out of four World Cups. They reached the round of 16 in 2006, but that was their only time past the group stage. Last time out in Qatar, they beat Qatar, drew the Netherlands, but then lost to Senegal and missed out on a spot in the knockout round.
00:31:24
Speaker
They were the second best team in CONMEBOL qualifying, eight wins, eight draws, two losses. And in those 18 matches, they conceded just five goals.
00:31:35
Speaker
The last time they gave up two plus goals in a game was in the Copa America group stage against Venezuela. That's two years ago, 21 games. That said, they only scored 14 goals in 18 matches, and six of those 14 goals came in two games against Bolivia.
00:31:49
Speaker
admit, it's a super simple, reductive way to look at it. That's probably everything you need to know about the playing style and the approach to the game you're getting here from Ecuador. Ecuador have no problem playing for 1-0. They like their draws. We saw that in Kamabal. It is very physical, very defensive. and these you know We talk about the level of the muckers in this tournament. I think Ecuador are very, very high level at it. like you know we On our USA podcast, we talked about Paraguay, who are very committed to the bit.
00:32:22
Speaker
But the players here are very, very well suited to the bit, um especially at center back, especially at center mid. um And that is just really, really nasty play against. I think this Ecuador team has kind of has peaked almost this generation for this tournament to show this style. They were kind of in 2022. I think maybe you and I, maybe a few others had some some dark horse buzz for them. Yeah, I think on talent, right there.
00:32:49
Speaker
They're really close to the top 10 here, depending on how you get through that tier. And their style fits with what can be the recipe to make a run in modern football. Like most South American teams this day and age, it's an Argentine manager. It's Sebastian Beccasese, formerly known as Sebastian Beccasese. He's got that flow going for him. He has gotten a bit older, might not be as sexy as he once was. He replaced Felix Sanchez, who had replaced Gustavo Alfaro post Copa America.
00:33:18
Speaker
Bekasetse is a modern manager. He likes his tactical flexibility. He has been known to play free-flowing football, all of that jazz. John, it kind of feels like he saw the foundation that Gustavo Alfarro built with this team, said, you guys keep doing that.
00:33:35
Speaker
I'll be the pretty face on the touchline, and I'll make sure that everything kind of flows, and it's worked. Yeah, weird you're making me talk about Miguel Herrera on this podcast again, but it actually turns out to be a good idea to just keep doing what Alfaro is doing and having success with because when you try and totally turn it around, that doesn't work.
00:33:53
Speaker
We'll see what the next Paraguay manager does, I guess, but totally. I mean, this is a team that, you know, we always have these chats. international soccer fans, and international sports fans of like, well, should the manager put a system on the team or should he like adjust, you know, what the players are already doing well and and just use that to make a system. And I think he got his answer quite quickly. And and as you mentioned, as we're about to get into it the personnel, like this really fits the personality of Ecuador and also what they have in the squad. Yeah.
00:34:21
Speaker
For so defensive of a team, it's a bit interesting that there is a bit of uncertainty in goal. There might even be the chance that Ecuador take four goalkeepers to this World Cup. We'll see what happens in the final squad. I think there's two guys who are who are fighting it out for the starting position. It's Hernan Galindes. He's 39 at Juragan here in Argentina. And then Gonzalo Vache, who has been really good for Liga de Quito in Ecuador.
00:34:43
Speaker
I think Vache is probably where this ends up going. They'll be in the squad. They each started a game in the March friendly. I think that's where this ends up. Moises Ramirez is a flashy younger option, but he's kind of fallen out of favor. Obviously came up like so many of these Ecuador players through the Independiente Del Vache youth system. You're going to hear that a lot about guys who came up through the Independiente del Vache youth system.
00:35:07
Speaker
It forms the base of what this Ecuador team is as well. Christian Lohr is another young goalkeeper who could be in the squad. We'll see Omar Karabali at O'Higgins in Chile. Also recently got a one-time switch approved, having switched to Chile and now switching back to Ecuador.
00:35:23
Speaker
Libertad's Dabi Kameezas. There's a lot of goalkeeper names, but I think it'll be Vache or Golindes and probably Vache. Things of it, however, are lot cleaner in defense. Joel Ordonez at Brugge, William Pacho, who will be playing in Champions League final at PSG centrally. Fjero Nkappie at Arsenal as a left back.
00:35:39
Speaker
Pervis Estupignon is a left back by trade, but he's seen some time at right back, as has Alain Franco, who usually plays higher up the field. Angelo Preciado also in the right back conversation. The defense here, though, feels pretty stable.
00:35:53
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, you've got a few elite players. Pacho at PSG has elevated, I think even in the past year under Enrique. um You saw against Bayern in that crazy, crazy semifinal, both legs, his box defending one-on-one against players like Olisse, against Kane and Diaz. Yeah, Bayern got some, but Pacho is is excellent. I think he is now one of the best centerbacks in the world in the conversation. That is a massive boon for this team. And look, Piero Hincopye is he's Leverkusen to Arsenal move.
00:36:25
Speaker
um They have other good defenders, but he is part of their top defense in the world. So you've got two of the best defenders in the world, the best defensive teams in the world. That's great. like Love that. You know, that's something you can hang your head on.
00:36:38
Speaker
Purvis Stupinian at Brighton kind of has fallen out of a favor. I don't even know if he's he's still at Brighton, honestly. That's kind of where I remember him from. He's a left back. I think he needs to play right back so that Hinn-Capier can could stay on the left. That's going to be a little of adjustment, but guy who gets up and down the field, covers a lot of ground, good enough on the ball.
00:36:56
Speaker
Listen, that's that's really solid. Whoever the the fourth player is, looks like it'll be Ordonez. That'll fit in. he's He's fine. This team's defense should be able to play high up the field and protect itself. That is that is what makes Ecuador have such a good spine.
00:37:14
Speaker
Milan these days for Perversistupignon, for those of you keeping track at home. John, the midfield is nasty. You've got Moises Caicedo, Pedro Vite, who's obviously at Pumas in Mexico. They play centrally, and this is where opposing teams' possession goes to die.
00:37:31
Speaker
Yeah, totally. I think that they, you know, kind of back up the physicality that we're talking about in a lot of ways, but I think it's like maybe because of that, it can be a little underrated that both of them are quite good at then starting to, to find in the next play, you know, to to play well with the ball at the feet. Good with the ball. They can both dribble forward. They can both pass well and create you know that that moment, that move forward. So not only is it quite difficult to get at that back line that we're talking about as a quite staunch one, I think that when you do screw up in the midfield, it's going to take 0.5 seconds before suddenly you're running back the other way because they do find a good way to play that ball in transition. So both of them, I think, known to U.S. space fans, English-speaking fans, the people who are listening to this show, and rightfully so. I think that they're both, you know, quality central midfielders who are going to make life really difficult if that's what you're trying to play through.
00:38:22
Speaker
And that ball that they're looking for, Amit, there's a lot of options for where it could go, and a lot of them have pace on the wing. So there's Alan Minda. He's the third Atlético Minato guy that's in this squad alongside Franco Impreciado, who we mentioned earlier. John Yeboah at Benicia can play on the right. He can play in a double striker type situation. Kendry Pais didn't really work out at Chelsea. He's been kind of in and out of the River Plate squad, but has had his moments. He's promising. He can also play as a 10 if you want to shift in there.
00:38:52
Speaker
Nilsson Angulo missed two months with a thigh injury, but just got back to full health at Sunderland. And then in front-ish of those guys, or maybe alongside of them, or kind of floating in along with them, is Gonzalo Plata, who has been a key to Flamengo's attacking play recently in Brazil, attacking midfielder, right-wing floater.
00:39:10
Speaker
And then in front of all of that, Amit, as so often the case, the goal question here is answered by Ener Valencia, still, right? 105 caps, 49 goals. He's now at Pachuca in Mexico. He is the talismanic striker. Maybe the movement isn't what it was, but he's still got it. And if all of those quick, flashy, fast guys create chances, he's shown that maybe there won't be a lot of chances. Maybe there won't be a lot of goals, but he'll take more often than he misses.
00:39:38
Speaker
He's still got that ruthless air about him. He's a physical bruiser, but he loves to hang around the center backs. And then he uses his speed, just not not his speed, but his burst just at the right moment in the box. Can great on getting at the end of crosses. Will be good on set pieces too. Listen, I think these wingers obviously are not like Champions League level, but they are very good.
00:40:03
Speaker
good at this level, they can run a lot and they are fast. And that is part of the Ecuador system. As you said, spring transition attacks from the midfield, this team should be able to funnel chances to Valencia enough. Again, I think volume striker and not necessarily pejoratively is a fair, like, you know, tag for this guy at this point.
00:40:22
Speaker
it It works. And I think Valencia, honestly, you could back him in a big moment. We've seen him do this for Ecuador in a way maybe that even if the pedigree on the the Germany strikers is higher, you you you like Valencia's trust in these moments to see him as a big game player. Is that fair? Is that not? I don't know. Maybe I'm maybe i'm projecting, but I like that a lot. And also, I think Plata has a lot riding on him if teams kind of back off Ecuador to for him to to make something happen.
00:40:51
Speaker
Kevin Rodriguez came out of nowhere to make the Ecuador squad four years ago. He's now a fairly established attacking threat at USG in Belgium. I think he'll be the the kind of reserve option here. Look, John, Ener Valencia might not be the guy that you want finishing your chances in the year 2026, but he's a guy who can finish chances in the year 2026 and has proven key for this Ecuador team throughout their qualifying run throughout their Copa America success.
00:41:17
Speaker
Yeah, totally. I think that he's the kind of guy where like you're you're like, how is this still happening? But it does keep happening, right? And and you know you'll see for 80 minutes, you're like, i don't know if this is really going to go. And then it something happens and it works. you know I think like we talked about the system. We talked about some of the defensive strength. like I don't see, with the exception of the Curacao game, like I don't see Ecuador winning maybe any game at this tournament, 5-0. But like...
00:41:43
Speaker
you're still allowed to move through if you win 1-0 or 2-1 or 3-2. So I think that that's the kind of games that that Ecuador is going to be in. And and like part of that is because that's what they got up top.
00:41:54
Speaker
and But it's it's kind of the classic, like reliable old guy keeps doing it. I think fans are going to be familiar with that. And that's where I think this is. And i admit Ecuador can make your life hard in a way that few teams at this tournament can do. And they do it at such a high level. We saw it throughout Conval qualifying. Nobody scored two goals on them and and any Conval game that they played. That's just a fantastic, fantastic record. Ecuador Ivory Coast on on day one in this group might be the most physical match of the entire group stage. Them against Germany, I think, is ah is a thrilling matchup to see kind of measuring stick of where those two teams are at. They will obviously have plenty of support in the stands. There's a massive Ecuadorian community, obviously, in the U.S. Ecuadorians that can travel from Ecuador will travel. They may not have the World Cup pedigree of some of the other South American sides, but they will absolutely bring it as far as the atmosphere is concerned. And I don't Think I hate the draw as long as they don't win the group.
00:42:53
Speaker
And admit, it's the World Cup after dark. We have to bring up the possibility. What if they finish in third and they're going to Mexico City for two matches? You know what Mexico City has?
00:43:03
Speaker
It's altitude. You know what Ecuador is used to playing with? It's altitude. Uh-oh. The wheels are turning. Yeah, I like the case here. ah Listen, I think... Outside of the round of 16 against France, and even in that match, any knockout game that Ecuador is in, you just have to give them a fighting chance because of that defense, because of that midfield, because of the counter style.
00:43:25
Speaker
um This is a nasty team. I think... you know, it's it's not necessarily a style that's going to have them overpower anyone in a knockout game, but they'll be in the game. So i I'm very bullish on this team, but this group is is interesting. And that Ecuador Ivory Coast game, I mean, i don't think you want to be third, right? Or maybe like second really matters. So that first opening game is is fascinating.
00:43:53
Speaker
It is. John, for Ecuador, the case here is that that defensive solidity has to translate to the World Cup stage, which we'll have to see, right? And can they get enough goals from some combination of Ener Valencia, other guys, and obviously set pieces, which we haven't mentioned, but are always huge for these big physical defensive style teams?
00:44:14
Speaker
Yeah, totally. I think I'm convinced by the defense. It's the goal scoring that really has me a bit worried. I think there was a stretching qualification where they had three or four nil nils in a row. But like then you say, oh, can they stop a team like Argentina? They did, right? They did do that in qualification. The friendlies were decent against like some pretty good opponents. The Netherlands, I think it was like a one, one draw. So look like they have done it in, in kind of like the atmospheres that we're saying against the types of teams that we're talking about, maybe with the exception of like a France with like a hugely high ceiling. I just am concerned that the goals aren't necessarily going to be there consistently. And again, like you, you know, I said, they let you through if you win one nil, but they don't let you through if you don't score a goal. So ah they need to do that.
00:44:58
Speaker
They do, though, if you win on penalties. Should Ecuador practice penalties a minute? We got the goalkeeper questions, man. alex Alexander Dominguez ain't walking through that door, although, I mean, I guess goes. Ecuador practicing penalties at training starting yesterday minute?
00:45:12
Speaker
Have to, right? this is This team is destined for multiple, or maybe one. Maybe they lose one, but destined for a penalty shootout in their future. And they could drag a high-level team to a penalty shootout, which would be a very sweaty situation.
Ivory Coast's Defensive Style and Squad Analysis
00:45:27
Speaker
So everything that we just talked about with Ecuador, I think kind of goes double for what we're seeing with Ivory Coast. These teams ah ah share a lot of similarities.
00:45:36
Speaker
Fourth World Cup appearance for the Ivory Coast. They qualified in 2006, 2010, and 2014 with the Drogba generation. Missed two World Cups in a row, but have gotten it back together here.
00:45:47
Speaker
They went undefeated, and they had to in their qualifying group. They topped it by a point against what turned out to be a very feisty challenge from Gabon. They won one of the most wild major tournaments in AFCON in 2023, where they fired their manager after it looked like they were getting eliminated in the group stage, got through in third place, hired a new manager, and won the tournament. They got upset by Egypt at the AFCON in 2025. Their no goals strategy finally kind of went away from them at that point. The manager here is Amr Sfei. He took over literally in the middle of that AFCON in 2023, right before the round of 16. And it was maybe the best new manager bounce we've ever seen.
00:46:31
Speaker
Yeah, you can't do better than that. Come in and win the tournament. Listen, I don't know if we know a lot about him. i think what we saw is that he put Ivory Coast to play extremely defensive style and it worked.
00:46:44
Speaker
um And then in qualifying, it also worked because in CAF, if you don't allow goals, that travels. So like that, in a sense, is good. um He was with the the youth team in Ivory Coast. This is his first senior job. I mean, there's just not a lot on him.
00:46:59
Speaker
But listen, the Federation has had a lot of problems before this cycle to kind of get their stuff together and be consistent. And so he's definitely gotten the team to play cohesively in the defensive style. I think that is is a big hallmark. um And he's gotten a lot out of you know mixing in newer guys on the wing, some exciting young talent that he worked with on the U23s. There's some really young prospects here on the wing, plus you know some solid, experienced central players. so um he iss ah He's a no-nonsense manager. Again, like it's not like we have years of of style to like talk about what he does, but what we saw from Ivory Coast being successful, similar to Ecuador, they are nasty to play against, and they really like to allow no goals if possible.
00:47:46
Speaker
The results here, John, kind of lend some credence to the thought of maybe just don't overcomplicate things, right? We're physical, we're strong, let's defend and play back the other way. And Ivory Coast have been really good at scoring goals early in matches, which really allows them to dictate the tempo. And what we saw in March was a continuation of that with the added fact that they stomped South Korea 4-0 in a friendly and then went and beat Scotland 1-0. The signs are are promising here.
00:48:13
Speaker
Yeah, totally. I think that that that that result I know got like the alarm bells definitely ringing. In Korea, the call-up's kind of interesting. Like I think Nicolas Pepe had missed the AFCON squad, if I'm not mistaken. he's back. Like there's some experience that it seems like they're trying to bring.
00:48:30
Speaker
back into the team, which is which is interesting. But at the same time, like Wilfred Zaha didn't make it. Sebastian Haller didn't make it. You know, like that maybe they're in a moment of transition, at least or or trying out different attackers because it seems like, hey, we always lean on the defense. It kind of works. But I think there's a knowledge that that's not going to get you so, so far at the World Cup. But yeah, I think the recent form has been decent.
00:48:55
Speaker
AFCON, it's hard to know. That AFCON, y'all talked about it on your show. like It was such a weird moment where it's like, this is either going to be something where it 100% carries into the World Cup and affects the morale, or it'll have nothing to do with it. like It's hard to see any in between. like With Senegal and Morocco, it's clearly like they're the the flame that lights them, the the thing that moves them forward. For DR Congo, I think it was like, oh, that was irrelevant. Now we made the World Cup, and now we're like here, and hopefully everybody's healthy and everything. But like, I don't know where it stands for every ghost. I'm not sure like kind of how the past and the momentum will carry through.
00:49:30
Speaker
But I do think a bit like the March friendlies kind of are the the point there that maybe lend some credence in. All right. I've kind of done it's it in the back window. Let's see. All right. Talk me through the squad. Okay. Yeah, I think this team is not quite as good as Ecuador in central defense, but very, very good in central defense. um Odilon Kosnu at Atalanta, very good, fast, physical center back.
00:49:55
Speaker
Ousmane Diamande at Sporting, fast, physical center back. Not as good of passers. I don't think as high level as a player like Pacho, but you know very good. And then they're three, four deep here. Evan Ndika at Roma.
00:50:08
Speaker
Emmanuel Agbadou at Besiktas was at Wolves. So that's great to work on. Goalkeeper, before I go to the fullbacks, goalkeeper is fine. I think also in the Ecuador, similar, unproven thing. Yahia Fafana has been the guy for them. He's at Risapur in Turkey.
00:50:28
Speaker
um I think generally, Ivory Coast limit the volume of shots they put on him. um Again, with evaluating goalkeepers, it's so hard. um he he has He hasn't been a problem for Averikos, and a lot of calf goalkeepers are, so he's above that bar. But is he like an elevated shot stopper?
00:50:45
Speaker
I can't say that with any certainty. I'm not expecting that. um Their backups, Albin Lafont in Greece, Mohamed Kone, they're not as highly rated, so it's probably going to be Fafana.
00:50:56
Speaker
um And then the fullbacks here, I think, are perhaps the one weakness in the team. They're not as good as Ecuador's, definitely not as good as Germany's. It's Guala Due and Gislan Conan.
00:51:07
Speaker
Due is an exciting prospect at Strasburg. He's only 22. Conan's at Gil Vicente in Portugal. But neither these guys are super fast or super great on the ball. They're just kind of like your...
00:51:19
Speaker
solid fullbacks that you you play. They don't make mistakes. They could get up and down. They can do OK on the ball. But listen, fullback, as we say over and over again, is such a tough position. So is it an OK spot to maybe have a weakness when you have two good central defenders?
00:51:34
Speaker
And when you have midfield solidity like this team has, much like Ecuador, that's a big strength here. Yeah, again, I think a little bit worse because Moises Caicedo is awesome. he's He's awesome. He's one of the best in the world. Here is Franck Kessie, who is in Saudi Arabia. And he was, you know, again, had that stint at Barca. There was talent there for Kessie and Milan, and he's a good player. And One thing I was really impressed with him when you watch him at the international level, he has not slipped off since going to Saturday, but he is still very fast. He is a good dribbler. He's a very strong defensive center midfielder.
00:52:10
Speaker
That's great. And the next to him is Ibrahim Sangare at Nottingham Forest. Also a very good defender. Not quite as fast, not as good on the ball, but listen, you've got two guys that are tough to play through. You've got two center backs that can cover a lot of ground.
00:52:22
Speaker
Very similar to Ecuador. I think possession here, they're going to disrupt a lot of it. ah That's great. And then that third spot, I think they're going to play 4-3-3, is pretty open. They've used a lot of Seco Fofana at Porto here. um He's not like a very fast player that covers a lot of ground. He's more of a late arriving 10 in the box. But listen, when you defend with six, you attack with three, he's the fourth guy that kind of gets some shots up. So...
00:52:50
Speaker
It's a fine player. I don't think Fafana is an elite 10, but listen, he's at Porto. That's it's pretty good. So you'll like that. The midfield depth is okay. not Nothing really to write home about. Jean-Michael Serri was a good player 10 years ago. He's at, and now is not really as effective. Christy Nauulai at Trebzonspor is just 20.
00:53:09
Speaker
Don't think we should expect him to to do a lot here. The depth is one point. And I don't know if we touched on this with Ecuador is really a lot riding on Kessie specifically at plus 30 in Saudi Arabia to hold up this whole tournament.
00:53:23
Speaker
And the things that can make that matter, John, in a World Cup are multiple, right? you could We could be talking about an injury playing a role here. We could be talking about yellow card suspensions playing a role here. We could be talking about fatigue playing a role here. All of those things can kind of come together and have something happen.
00:53:42
Speaker
Yeah, of course. I think that, you know, it's easy for us to, to sit and say, this is what's going to happen. And this is the important guy. And then if something goes wrong, or if they finished in third place and decide to fire their coach, which is a possibility, then then everything changes and everything goes out the window. So, um, Yes, the the story of the tournament will be written. But of course, like the teams that feel best going in are, I think, ones that have a little bit more depth at these key positions, which I think maybe Ecuador has in this group, which definitely Germany has in this group. But i mean, I mean, the attack is not bad at all.
00:54:16
Speaker
Yeah, I think this is one area, if you were trying to say versus Ecuador or even Germany, the wingers here are electric top-notch. And I think Ecuador's spine is better, right? Caicedo, Pacho. But the wingers here are better than Ecuador's wingers to me. And I think you're looking at Nicolas Pepe, who we talked about at Villarreal, is a very good winger. Then you've got Ahmad, who is Ahmad Diallo at Manchester United,
00:54:42
Speaker
He's an excellent drip dribbler, really good take on artist, creates chances at will. You know, he's not ah a great defender. He's a little slight, but dribbling artist. Love that. And then you've got two guys behind them that are also good. Simona Dinger at Brighton.
00:54:57
Speaker
Fast, good transition player, maybe not take on, but really lethal in space. And then the player, we talked about him at the AFCON, kind of having a breakout season at Leipzig is Jan Diamande, superstar prospect. He's 19. Listen, when you've got a 19 dribbling guy at Leipzig, you're expecting a lot out of him. And he he flashes that on tape. Not only can he take on, he can shoot.
00:55:18
Speaker
um And so... You've kind of got four guys that can do a little bit of different things, but they are all fast and good dribblers. This team is maybe if they're not as good at defending, they're going to be better attacking it than Ecuador and using these guys just to break down attacking fullbacks if you back off them.
00:55:37
Speaker
So I'm really, really excited about these prospects. I'm very bullish on Ahmad. I think he's a joy to watch. Really fun dribbler. And Diamande, let's see if he can he can crack the lineup here and and you know force the issue in his in his minutes they've got like four other guys on the bench too i'm not even going to bring up but like this this team just prints wingers i think that is the ivory coast pipeline right now and so that to me is their x factor can they elevate above their level is if these guys can you know produce some moments of magic and that's what you want your wingers to do
00:56:08
Speaker
And Amit, the question will be how many of those guys can they get on the field at the same time? Yeah, probably two, maybe three. I'm not sure. I mean, we were talking about Fofana at the 10. Maybe your best case is getting a third winger here. Maybe that's Pepe, who is a striker hybrid for Villarreal. I think that would, you know, up their ceiling a little bit. So let's see what, ah you know, the manager decides. Strikers, okay here. I think, honestly, similar to Ecuador, maybe a little worse. Yeah. we mentioned Hilaire is not here. He was their, their guy in the 23 AFCON. He's out of the squad. They're a little bit thin.
00:56:43
Speaker
Evan Gassand is probably the first choice He's like the third, fourth string striker at Villa. He is a very like physical striker that,
00:56:54
Speaker
you can put him on a premier league team, but he's not getting minutes. Cause I think technically he's not quite as good as the level of premier league strikers. Listen, they're going to try to funnel chances to him and hope he heads one in. Interesting pickup here is on Joe and Bonnie at inter. He just came in, in may, uh, may 8th.
00:57:10
Speaker
Um, he was a French international. He's a depth option at enter, but, um, he's a legit second striker. um he's faster, not as a target guy. Could he be something here? I'm not expecting him to like,
00:57:23
Speaker
really do a lot. And then they've got a backup nine, Omar Diakite at Circle Brugge, not expecting a lot out of him. This is one area where I do think this and Ecuador, this team could create a lot of chances, be super fun on the wings, but the striker might not be elite. So it's kind of a theme of all of these three teams in this group. We could see a lot of fun soccer and a lot of missed chances.
Ivory Coast vs. Ecuador: Key Matchup
00:57:45
Speaker
John, it feels like we're doing the Ivory Coast-Ecuador comparison a lot, but I think this is a group that asks that question because they're so similar, they play so similarly, and on the first day of this group, they're going to go head-to-head.
00:57:58
Speaker
Yeah, totally. I mean, it's it's easy to, you know, as a college sports fan, I'm always like, who's the Texas Tech of the other conferences? Because I'm a Texas Tech graduate. And I think like, who's the Ecuador of Africa is Ivory Coast and vice versa, right? So ah that first game is kind of like what World Cup group stage is about, right? Hey, we don't usually see these teams play each other. They kind of seem to be on the same level. They kind of seem to have some of the same strengths and weaknesses.
00:58:24
Speaker
All right, we're rolling out the ball and seeing how it goes. So I think that's... That's the one you circle, right? It's just like going to be a deciding game. And and I think also because of the top, we we we pencil in Germany at the top, we pencil in Kurosawa at the bottom. We can get to how accurate that's going to be, but it seems pretty accurate. So that's the one that seems like it's going to determine the standings.
00:58:47
Speaker
And Amit, the ceiling here feels also very similar to Ecuador. The game plan feels very similar. This is a knockout round matchup that you don't want to see on the other side. If it's Ivory Coast in third place or whatever, if you're an elite team, it is an uncomfortable game when 90 minutes are separating you from staying or going in the tournament.
00:59:08
Speaker
They're just going to be miserable to play against. I think they need Kessie. If Kessie is not on the field in a knockout game, yeah, I think that limits their chances a lot. But if he's healthy, yeah, this this team can can get you to pens. They could beat you.
00:59:21
Speaker
Listen, they they did really well at AFCON 23. And I think in this past one, when they went out... Egypt scored in the third minute and the whole game was kind of behind. So that could be a problem there. But if they keep you at zero zero, it's going to be nasty. So I really like both of those teams. and We're talking about them more in a little bit, but I really like both of these teams to make some runs if, if things break.
00:59:44
Speaker
One final point for me on Ivory Coast, something we saw a lot from them in qualifying was their ability to score early in a game and make the game state exactly what they wanted it to be. So often against pretty much everybody in their qualifying path in the big games against Gabon or whatever it was, goal in the first 15 minutes, absorb the pressure and all those tricky wing your guys that Amit talked about, dangerous back the other way, conditioning what the other side can do. Let's see if that's something that that they can repeat at the World Cup. John, you've been a real trooper. You've hugged with us for for nearly an hour. and now, my friend, it's your time to shine. Because it's the fourth team in the group, it is Curacao, their first ever World Cup.
Curacao's World Cup Journey and Unique Challenges
01:00:23
Speaker
This is a side that went 44 years without even making the CONCACAF Gold Cup or the CONCACAF Championship from 1963 to 2017, not a single major tournament. Their qualifying campaign, four wins from four in the second round against Haiti, St. Lucia, and ah haiti st lucia Aruba, and Barbados. The end there, in my notes, John, got me tricky because you know there's some CONCACAF teams that have the end, and so you think it's one country. It was actually two. But then in the third round, they went unbeaten, three wins and three draws against Jamaica, Trinidad, and and Tobago, and Bermuda.
01:00:54
Speaker
They beat Jamaica 2-0 at home and then drew them 0-0 away on the last day to qualify This is one of the stories of the expanded World Cup, John. This is a tiny island in the Caribbean that counts on their diaspora in the Netherlands for the majority of their players.
01:01:11
Speaker
Curacao making the World Cup was the goal. And as is so often the case, now that they're here, they're not planning to go quietly. No, totally. I mean, it's super exciting to see them here. The population, I joke every time, keeps getting smaller because everyone just keeps talking about what a great story it is. And it seems like people are actively moving to make it a better story. like The thing is, like in all honesty, I think the population is around 150,000. I visited in 2019, and the population was just shy of 200,000. But if you are if you're from Curacao, you have a Dutch passport. So you can go to the Netherlands. Mm-hmm. whenever and work and live, unlike a place like Suriname or some other of the you know former Dutch colonies. Kursa was still a constituent member, a constituent country of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. So you can still live and work there.
01:02:01
Speaker
It also works the other way, right? You get the the Dutch guys who are coming to play for Curaçao, people who moved there and had their kids and their kids played in the Ajax Academy or the PSV Academy or or whatever. So um it's an awesome story. It's really cool that they're here. They were not even called Curaçao for a long time. It was Netherlands Antilles when they were combined with Bonaire and now split off into another country another national team.
01:02:27
Speaker
it's It's crazy. It's really crazy. you know I mentioned I went there. And of course, like when you go, you're saying, like well, what's the short-term plan? What's the medium plan? What's the long-term plan? and like everyone's like, long-term plan is to make the World Cup. And as a reporter, it's like, well, that's cool. That's cute. That's never going to happen. And then it did.
01:02:42
Speaker
And here they are. We've talked, John, in this World Cup about some teams that went through World Cup qualification with one manager and then changed a manager ahead of the World Cup and are now bringing someone new. I think Kurosawa are the only case of going through qualification with a manager, changing a manager, and then bringing back the first manager.
01:03:03
Speaker
What is going on with Dick Advocat, with Fred Rudin, and how did we get to where we're here? and Really, it's strange situation, right? Because in a way, so Kurosawa has tried the higher old famous Dutch international experience manager before with Goose Hiddink and it didn't work.
01:03:22
Speaker
And in fact, it went way worse than like a guy who always mention when i talking about Curacao, Renko Bicentini, who is one of the the managers who started this project. And he's gotten some of his flowers lately, but maybe not as much as I think he should. So it's it's been great to see. But this time, Dick Advocat arrived with a lot of sponsorship money behind him, of the travel companies that want people to visit Curacao, a beautiful place for scuba diving, I guess. I didn't i didn't do that. I don't know. I just went very well. Shocked mission.
01:03:48
Speaker
But yeah, people who want to get people to visit Coruscant, they help bring in good advocate. But it's worth noting, though, it sounds like his daughter has some health situation that requires him back the Netherlands, and actually missed that last qualification game, the game against Jamaica.
01:04:13
Speaker
cycle. So... He was gone he said, hey, I'm going to stay with my daughter and I'm going coach the World Cup. And then he took a job as an advisor at Finord. And was like, that's interesting.
01:04:25
Speaker
This guy's still going to working. It's not like, don't know, like the World Cup, yes, it's grueling, especially as the oldest manager ever. But like, don't know, thought it was kind of weird that he was like going to keep working. Whatever, you got to do what you got to do for your family. But So Fred Wheaton takes over with sort of the blessing of Avocad they said, everything's going to be the same.
01:04:43
Speaker
It's all going to good. They got for the FIFA series, funners against China and Australia, and they got rocked. And it sounds like all the reports indicate that some sponsors were pretty worried that, hey, they're going to be putting my name on this team at the World Cup and no one's going to like that they're getting smashed.
01:04:59
Speaker
And the players themselves said like, why don't you bring this guy back? This guy stinks. Let's get this other guy back. And they did. So I guess in a way, credit to the Federation for figuring that out.
01:05:11
Speaker
Because if you go to the World Cup or manager that everyone hates, it's a beautiful story of like, island made it. And they're feeding with the boss and they hate each other. You don't want that.
01:05:22
Speaker
So yeah, Dick Avocado is back. He's going to oldest manager ever, the coach of the World Cup. And I think he'll oversee two defeats. ah I'm it. Whenever you lose to and ill, the China, the the results on this podcast would tell you you're not in a great spot. And that's what happened to Curacao in March. That kind of led to this, uh, the style here, admit you can very much see the Dutch influence, right? A lot of this team brought up in Dutch academies. As John mentioned, there's dual nationals. There's a lot of back and forth and the recruitment of these players is key. We'll let John touch on that in a bit.
01:05:57
Speaker
That said, the style that Curacao have kind of not necessarily perfected, but chosen to play has gotten them through CONCACAF. As we've talked about in a lot of cases, the World Cup is a way bigger step.
01:06:10
Speaker
Yeah, it's been effective on the ball. They can use the ball in their midfield. They can do pretty passing patterns and you know they have good strikers. and It's worked for CONCACAF at that level. The issue is you're not going to have the ball against these teams and it's just asking a lot. I do think there are other third-placed, third-pot teams in this World Cup that they could have some success on the ball versus.
01:06:36
Speaker
These are just like the nightmare teams of like... oh The other teams are going to like, go ahead, try to build up through us. And then they are going to try to pass. And then you meet, who do we talk about? The the Ivory Coast center backs, the Germany center backs, the Ecuador center backs. And so that to me is the the the toughest thing here. Honestly, though,
01:06:56
Speaker
you you talk, you look at the rest of CONCACAF qualifying, like it was very impressive for Curacao system to get to this level at this point in their cycle. We've always kind of remember meeting John Arnold, like many years ago. i can't even remember the first time he talked to me about Curacao. was like, Oh, these, these guys can play like they can play the ball. And,
01:07:14
Speaker
Listen, it maybe i was maybe I was four six years too early, but it worked this time. like They are legitimately good. Think about a team that's that's not here, like Costa Rica, Jamaica. like The style works.
01:07:26
Speaker
It's just like it was the style to be the the team in CONCACAF. I'm not even convinced. like We're kind of saying, like how are they going to play? I'm not convinced that they play the same way. I mean, I don't think they're going to abandon their principles, but I do think that like...
01:07:41
Speaker
Look, I think Dick Advocat, certainly, but I think the players themselves and I think everyone really involved. Like this isn't a naive country. we We've all been, you know, doing the podcast like you guys do. We've all seen those like, you know, the manager quotes ah before a tournament or a game. And it's like, you know, it's whatever tiny country X. And they're like, we're not afraid of.
01:08:02
Speaker
massive country be, you're like, you probably should be like, you know, like, I don't know why you think that that's, good I mean, that you know, like apply the confidence, but then you see them go out and lose five mil or whatever. and Look, like Curves, I might lose five mil either way, but I'm not sure that they're just going to keep playing in the same style. i think you'll obviously still see the same influences. I don't think they're to abandon in their principles. But I do expect that we see a Curacao that's much more in its shell than it is against, well, look, I mean, look at the final game against Jamaica, right? Like they were not, hey, we're coming out to play. We're stringing 25 passes. to get No, they were surviving advance, and they did. So I think it's a team that understands tactically how to get the job done.
01:08:40
Speaker
And against Jamaica, they looked at Jamaica's front line and said, can you undo us ah in less space? And the answer for Jamaica was resoundingly no. And listen, we we talked about the striker issues with the other three teams. Kurosawa is going to make those strikers come up with something. I think you're right on that. that They will shell it up a bit more than we than we've seen.
01:09:01
Speaker
So, John, yeah unfortunately, you don't seem to have a lot of high hopes here. You've already gone on the record that you said that that you think this ends in three defeats for Curacao. Who are the players that will determine if it doesn't? Right. If we get you on this podcast during the World Cup we're saying, hey, John, you were wrong about Curacao. Why is it and who will be responsible for?
01:09:21
Speaker
No, and I'd be thrilled. I think like there's a lot of 2018 Panama vibes to this team for me where maybe it's not like as, as quote unquote bright a future because you know, Panama is like establishing academies, domestic soccer. We can get into that another episode, but, um,
01:09:38
Speaker
It's like Leandro Bakuno, right? He's 34. He's playing in the Turkish second division. This dude has been coming to represent Curacao for a decade now. And he's going to play. He's going to start. And he should. He's deserved it. And he still is probably one of the best midfielders that they have.
01:09:53
Speaker
But he's playing the second division in Turkey. Like, there's a reason for that, right? If he turns back the clock, then maybe we're talking about, oh, Curacao did something magic. In goal, he's playing in USL Championship for Miami FC.
01:10:06
Speaker
Also, same deal. Been coming to Curacao to play for the national team for almost a decade. Deserves it. Still the best goalkeeper. Well, there's some there's some competition that's coming, but like he's the guy. Just like Jaime Pineda was the guy in 2018 for Panama. Just like Gabriel Gomez was the guy for for Panama in the midfield. And and and Felipe Baloy was the best center back. But like...
01:10:27
Speaker
that it's two they're old for Curacao and they're they're they're not going to be able to do it against i in some of the top teams. But I think like those are the old guard is there. Giannino Bakun has also been coming for a long time. Lando's brother, he's at a bit a higher level, a dynamic player who can make something interesting happen. When you look at some of the new recruits and I think like a massive, massive boost during during the qualification cycles when Armando Alvizpo signed up, the PSP center back. Again, like he's not...
01:10:55
Speaker
Oh, he's playing every single game for PSV. No, sometimes he's there. Sometimes he's not. He wasn't there for those March friendly games. And I think it showed for Kuros how he's like the most important new recruit to me as like a key center back who has good movement, good speed, can go against some of the top attackers. So if they do something at this World Cup, I think we're going to be looking and saying, oh, he was a big factor.
01:11:16
Speaker
Two of the attacking recruits on Johansson, who plays at Middlesbrough and Tahith Chong, who they finally got. This is a guy who like was a Manchester United prospect, didn't really work out. But one of the few guys who was born in Curacao, he's actually from ah the islands and and moved when he was really young.
01:11:32
Speaker
He didn't work out at Manchester United. He didn't work out the top level, but like a consistent player for Sheffield United. He can play as a winger, can play behind the forward. He's a guy who, again, like if you if you say, oh, this team is having success and it's because of it, I think a lot of it is going to be because of the new recruits, even if I think I think the old guard deserved their flowers and deserved the spotlight.
01:11:53
Speaker
And so, John, one of the things that has been so important for Curacao and something you alluded to there has been recruitment, right? Curacao aren't developing players on the island. It's not like there's all of these academies that are propping up and they're getting players. This comes down to Curacao going out and finding players and having success in doing that.
01:12:12
Speaker
And it's the rolling ball situation, right? The more success that they have as a nation, the more players they can recruit, the more players they recruit, the more success they have as a nation, the more success they have as a nation, the more players they can recruit.
01:12:23
Speaker
Yeah, although I was a little surprised to note that like on the final World Cup roster, nobody new. ah you know, there are a couple of names that are floating around who are eligible. And even some of the guys who are like no longer eligible, but are from Kurosawa or like have Kurosawa ancestry, like the Timbers, Arsenal champion now, ah you know, like he was eligible.
01:12:41
Speaker
He's going to play for the Netherlands. You get it, right? Like there's there's a fair number of guys who are like impressive players who were on the radar for Curacao's like, you know, brain trust when they were U-17s, U-20s. And then they made like probably the right decision to like keep their Netherlands eligibility. And then they ended up, they're going to go to the World Cup with the Netherlands. Just a couple of other examples of guys like that. But I was surprised that like Dick Avaka and his his staff didn't take one or two of the the eligible guys.
01:13:10
Speaker
Maybe it's a situation where the guys didn't want to come. Maybe it's a situation where want to stick with the, you know, dance with the guy, dance with the guy who brought you, dance with the girl you brought, whatever the phrase is. um Yeah. Whatever gender, who cares? Dance with whoever you've been dancing with previously. That's great. So I think that, i think that yeah, Curacao, you know, it's going to look a lot like a team that's familiar to people who watch CONCACAF qualifying because they there really weren't, there wasn't this big wave. Yeah.
01:13:36
Speaker
That I think some people expected, even Haiti. you know There's like a couple guys who like had not been on Haiti before and they're going to go to the World Cup and seem to be wooed and and commit because of Haiti being at the World Cup. It seems like all those guys have already joined up. But yes, the scouting is all in the Netherlands. The the base of is in the Netherlands.
01:13:54
Speaker
And like, I think the shame of my expectations, which again, could be totally wrong. I hope are totally wrong. Like, is like, people are going to say, this is a Dutch B team, Dutch C team. That's like really limiting, right? Because I think these guys really care about...
01:14:09
Speaker
putting on the shirt and, and, you know, seeing the flag and going. One thing that Renko Bicentini did when he was a manager is like, he was just saying to me, Hey, I have to make this as fun as possible. Like these guys for their club career, they could easily stay on international breaks, train, get fit, enjoy a vacation with their wife, and then like get back to training after a couple of days. And like the club coaches prefer that, right? It's probably better for their club career if they're not flying, you know, from Amsterdam and I can fly direct, but like, let's say they're playing in Grenada. Amsterdam to Miami, Miami to Grenada, Grenada to Miami, Miami to Amsterdam. And like you know trying to to cram these two games, and it's better if they don't, but the fact that they do shows that they care. And so I have to make this as fun as possible. And so when they go to Curacao, they are welcomed as heroes even before they made the World Cup. They have a retrofitted school bus that like has like a crazy sound system that has like a thatched roof decoration and like painted in the like the kit. And so it's like, it's obviously not fancy, right? But like, it's very genuine. It's very national. That is what the Carissa national team should be traveling in.
01:15:15
Speaker
Are there tour buses on the island? Yeah, but it's like not that easy to get them. So why don't we just paint this school bus and make it fun, put a sound system in, and then the guys are going to love it when they're rolling down the street over this honking their horns, they're dancing in the aisle. And it's like a good time. It's a good vibe.
01:15:29
Speaker
Hopefully those good vibes carry in the summer. Hopefully everyone's happy with the manager. Hopefully this ends up being kind of the the beautiful story. And hopefully we're saying, oh my gosh, we can't believe it. John's an idiot. Leandro Bakuna hat trick against Germany. So, you know, I'd love to talk about that story.
01:15:44
Speaker
It seems unlikely as we look at it, but hey, they're in another 150,000 population country here. So they did it. I mean, job done, right? This is all the icing on the cake. This is all bonus.
01:15:58
Speaker
One of the cool things I think Kurosawa are doing, John, is they're playing us a send-off match at home ahead of the World Cup, right? They have a friendly schedule against Aruba on home soil. That's going to be one of the coolest atmospheres because the World Cup ticket has been punched. like Those send-off matches are such a fun atmosphere as they are, but in a place like Kurosawa, in a moment like this, it just warms your heart.
01:16:19
Speaker
Well, and against Aruba, right? Like the neighbors, like the up-and-comers, like almost like a, hey, maybe maybe this could be you one day, little bro. Like it's like ah cool it's it's cool. And I think obviously like, you know, you're probably not going to get ah Germany. Obviously, we wouldn't want them in that group. Like not going France to come to Curacao for their pre-World Cup camp. But, you know, I think it will be a really great moment where they're they're playing. They also have Scotland in like a game that actually seems really important to me because of how bad the March matches went and because you kind of need to get back acclimated, I guess, under Dick Avocat. But yeah, I mean, like Haiti actually tried to do this as well. i don't know if you saw this Austin, though. Like they tried to play a match on Capetian. They wanted to kind of like get the guys in, play the match and get out. And they also talked about doing like a little parade. It sounded like maybe in like almost like Popemobiles, but unfortunately the security situation in that country isn't going allow that to happen. And shout out Curaçao, who allowed Haiti to use their facilities to also qualify for the World Cup. So the fact that like the people on the island, especially too, like it's...
01:17:18
Speaker
People might know that Curacao has an outsized baseball production talent line that brings the most big MLB players per capita. Just because, again, the tiny population, the fact that sports are taken quite seriously. So um when you have this like baseball factory and you're also turning it into a soccer loving place, that sendoff game is going to go a long way.
01:17:38
Speaker
I know like six reporters who have already been down there, like doing stories. I know of another one that's going to be there watching games with people from Curacao during the tournament. Like instead of coming to the U S is going to different countries that are, that are qualified and kind of getting the local vibe. Cool idea. I'm sure people, I can't say who it is, but like people will find it, uh,
01:17:56
Speaker
when it comes out. So like the fact that like Kurosawa is truly being sort of like centered and like the world is actually watching and they've got this enough game to celebrate. um It's super, super cool. and And yeah, like it'd be awesome if the story goes beyond that. But if it doesn't, to me, that's enough.
01:18:13
Speaker
So i bit I think the big question as as we close here on Curacao is can they deal with the physicality that they're going to see in this group from Ecuador, from Germany? First game against Germany, bright lights of the World Cup. That's a massive, massive stage here.
01:18:27
Speaker
Can they find joy in any of those three matches? It's hard to imagine it, but you see where the adrenaline can carry you. ah like You roll out there, you try to survive five minutes at a time, a minute at time.
01:18:40
Speaker
um Let's see. I mean, again, we've we've circled it. Can you frustrate the striker position? Can you defend bunker? You know what it's going to be. Maybe you get you know a moment on the counter for your your decent striker and something can happen. um It's tough because in this World Cup, there's no sleeper matches. There's no trap games.
01:18:58
Speaker
these teams are incentivized to put as many past curse out as they want. And Germany is not a team that is going to come in asleep. That's the other thing where, you know, maybe Ecuador and Ivory coast, I think teams that aren't like, you know, going to love that style. I think they can, you know, frustrate them a little bit. Germany, I think, you know, from the jump is just going to try to, to battering ram them. So we'll see. um Listen, I think we all kind of,
01:19:25
Speaker
have have put the expectations where they are. The numbers are where they are, but you know, magic, magic can happen. It's why we do it. It's the World Cup, and that's what is the beauty of the World Cup. And like John said, if the story can get better, obviously, but even if it doesn't, it's already one hell of a story that Curacao are here at the World Cup, and and that should obviously, as we said, be celebrated. I've made my case for Ecuador Ivory Coast as my game to watch in this group.
01:19:54
Speaker
John, is there a Curacao game that you are more excited for than than any other? Is there another game in this group that that that you're most interested in? No, the the Ecuador Ivory Coast is probably my game of the tournament as well. i also have Ecuador and neighbors. You mentioned I think they think that there are people who can travel or going to. I think they told me there's like they're going to have nine people for one of the games like at their place. And we don't live in one of the cities where Ecuador is playing, but they're going to base here and and move. um I like... Look...
01:20:24
Speaker
You can never sort of say like, oh, this is the game where Curacao is going to pop up and surprise him. I think just the debut against Germany, think it would probably get ugly. But like if it doesn't, you know, like there's that, there's certainly going those moments of like, if certainly if they don't concede early, then it's going to be like, not saying like, can I get to minute 20? Can I get to minute 25? Yeah. half chance on a corner, like whatever, you know, like those are the moments that you, you know, that rooting for a crazy underdog are all about. So would be my second one. I'm circling, I guess, a bit early heavy for me in this group, because I think it will bog down both in play style and results in a way, but those, those first two games, I think they're really going be a lot of fun.
01:21:02
Speaker
I'm it. I'm with the Ecuador ivory coach. It's not even football hipster anymore. This is the, you know, this is what we want to see. We're mainstream now. yeah That's right. We said on this podcast, like they're each other in the other confederation. So like, that's what you, you just really want to see what that level is. Two great styles and it could go a long way.
01:21:25
Speaker
So yeah. Mainstream Ecuador, Ivory coast. The people want to know. And close me out here with the metrics a bit. What what are the numbers telling us and and maybe with an eye towards the future for
Dark Horses: Ecuador and Ivory Coast's Potential
01:21:36
Speaker
these group teams? Yeah, I think honestly, it starts reverse order. We'll tell you everything we've been talking about on this podcast. This is what the numbers say. Again, we do our preparation before we look at the numbers. They often meet. Sometimes they don't. They meet here.
01:21:49
Speaker
Kurosawa plus 1200 to advance. That is 12 to one. Not very likely. And the books being very unkind that Curacao is minus 175 to lose all three games.
01:22:01
Speaker
Not a given, not a given, but that's what they think will happen more than likely, you know, so that's what they expect. Germany, uh, minus 10,000 to advance Ecuador minus 900 to advance Ivory coast minus 500 to advance. I do think Ecuador and Ivory coast are closer than that gap.
01:22:17
Speaker
Um, maybe that's just a, uh, to advance thing, not necessarily to finish in the group thing. Uh, if you, you know think that Germany maybe could slip up a little here. You could have Ecuador, Ivory Coast as the top two is plus 800. I wouldn't necessarily try that, but you know if you believe our our our podcasting and our hipstering, maybe maybe you like that. I do think some of the good value here is that both Ecuador and Ivory Coast to make a quarterfinal, sneaky punts, plus 550 for Ecuador, plus 1000 for Ivory Coast. I think both those teams should get to a round of 16-15
01:22:51
Speaker
um or one of them will. And in that round of 16 game, they will have better odds than those odds I just gave you. um So like that value, I will refrain from putting any stinks on any, you know, animals in the stables right now. But I like both of these teams a lot. So hear more on our predictions podcast. Maybe maybe I'll settle on one of them to to certainly stink them. But these are three teams here that all could make a quarterfinals. This is a great group in that sense.
01:23:19
Speaker
John, Amit's been walking around his dark horse stables. He's been checking out all the throwbreads. He's been picking up where to where to saddle up. Do you see any dark horse chances here for Ecuador or Ivory Coast?
01:23:30
Speaker
Yeah, I like Ecuador, man. I'll say it. I don't know. I think like, yeah, they're dark horse. They're still a little hipster. But at the same time, if you like, even four years ago in 2022, if you're like, I think the second best team in South America is going to have a pretty good World Cup. Like nobody's going to call you crazy. It's just the fact that the yellow they're wearing isn't the Selecau yellow. It's the the Ecuador. It's a three yellow, right? So I think that in a way, like it it's just, it follows logic. It's kind of like what we know to be true.
01:23:58
Speaker
South America pretty darn good at producing great players, pretty darn good at putting good national teams together. And for me, like, I don't know, especially, I don't know what you think. And I'll listen to y'all's thoughts on on the the Brazil pod, but like,
01:24:11
Speaker
Angelotti, I like him a lot. I like Neymar. It's fun. i don't know if it's successful, right? I think it's great. You know, what what is the stupid Darren Revelle tweet after the election? I feel sorry for my country, but this is tremendous content. Like, I'm like, I feel sorry for Brazil's World Cup chances, but this is tremendous content. Like, I just think it's going to good to watch. But Ecuador is, for me, the second strongest South American team. Why wouldn't they be a dark horse? Why can't they make a quarterfinal?
01:24:33
Speaker
We could see Ecuador Brazil and that game could go to penalties. It might be likely. John, it's been a thrill having you on once again. You've made more the time than necessary to be on this podcast twice in our preview cycle. It's been great having you. We hope that you've enjoyed your time around here at the World Cup After Dark. Yeah, I mean, if I wouldn't keep coming back if I didn't. and And it actually just saves me listening to the pod in my feed because I'm like, you yeah I already you heard that discussion. So yeah, it's always great to be here.
John Arnold's Insights and Conclusion
01:25:02
Speaker
I don't know if you're setting me up for my for my teases, but ah follow my TikTok at John Arnold FC. Click over to USA Today and I'm going to try and get some good in CONCACAF newsletters out during the World Cup, especially like i was going to mention this to you off air, but like why not now? There was an Argentine dude named Manuel Bilches who apparently managed Curaçao in 2011. And that's where his Wikipedia ends.
01:25:24
Speaker
So hopefully Manuel is still with us and maybe I'll try and run him down. He also coached and played in Canada. So if you're still listening at this point, you know anything, reach out at John Arnold FC on Blue Sky, TikTok, Instagram, et cetera, and tell me where Manuel Luches is now.
01:25:38
Speaker
There you go. The 15 years of the Wikipedia. That's what getting CONCACAF is here for is to ah to to to fill that up. It's a good strategy. I mean, right there there's 12 group stage previews. Look, it's enough for for an entire long haul flight. but But John's already got two in the bag from just being on the show. He's a smart. He's a smart listener.
01:25:55
Speaker
This guy thinking ahead. This the guy being being efficient with his time. Come on more. Yeah, that's right. The invitation is always open, John. Again, once again, a big thanks to to John for joining us. a big thank you to to you, the listener, for taking the time to to be with us here. There's plenty more in our World Cup preview series.
01:26:14
Speaker
Patreon.com slash WCAD right there at the front. You've got links to what will be all 12 of our group stage previews. We go this long on all the groups. If there's any team at the World Cup that you are interested in, mit and I have content for you on them. If there's any group that you're interested we've got content there. If, like us, you're interested in all of them, just start from A and go all the way down once they're all out.
01:26:32
Speaker
ah You can also subscribe to our Patreon there, and there will be plenty from Amit and I during the World Cup as well. So thanks for taking the time to to be here today. That's it for Group E, and we will be back soon with more.
01:26:44
Speaker
and Thanks for listening, as always.