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WCAD 4-12: Group G Preview
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Amit & Austin close out their World Cup Group previews with a look at Group G. Belgium lead the way, a second-tier European team with a last vestiges of a golden generation gifted a generous draw. Iran, one of the storylines on and off the pitch, join them, as do Egypt, who have hooked the hosts with their dark horse credentials. New Zealand round out the quartet, a big fish in the Oceanic confederation but a small fish in the World Cup pond.
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Transcript
Introduction and Focus on Group G
00:00:01
Speaker
We've reached the end of the run with the World Cup After Dark group stage previews. Today, it is Group G, Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand.
00:00:12
Speaker
i mean, I can't say that we saved the best for last because we certainly didn't do that. But we saved one of the most intriguing groups for last because this isn't just a group of opportunity. It's the Uber group of opportunity.
00:00:26
Speaker
I see here we've got the group of life. I like that. in The group of death, maybe maybe cut out in the 48-team World Cup. The group of life is
Belgium's Path and Potential Opponents
00:00:35
Speaker
a gift. And these four teams are happy to be here. And look, I think, i agree, we did not save the best for last. But it's World Cup after dark. our Our New Zealand boys are here in the final group. ah the only podcast, maybe the only, not but maybe not the only, but one of the only podcasts that was there for every step of Oceania qualifying. Thanks to you. And, um, we're excited to, uh, to, to, to maybe have a window for our Oceania boys. So, it's, it's an exciting group to close on. And listen, these have been a lot of fun. um I hope you've all been listening to them. I don't say much about the, you know, the the promotion of the podcast, but these have been really good. And this is a really good one to close on. um
00:01:15
Speaker
We're just really locked in on these groups. And we're so close to being there. We're so close to being there. And this group is not just the group of life because it is the weakest good European team, if you will, in Belgium, and then three kind of middle tier teams. It's a group of life because it's those four teams plus probably potentially the cushiest path to the quarterfinals that you could ask for. The winner of this group will play a third place team.
00:01:46
Speaker
ah The upshot of the New York Times has that being most likely to be a group a team. Potentially it's H or J, right? We're talking Czechia, South Korea, ah Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, right? In Seattle. So so that would be the round of 32 game.
00:02:04
Speaker
And then the round of 16, the group winner here is playing the winner of the U.S., Turkey, Australia, Paraguay group.
Belgium's World Cup History and Golden Generation
00:02:10
Speaker
or at another third place team in the round of 16, also in Seattle. And then the winner of Group H, which is the Spain group, is also in the quadrant.
00:02:17
Speaker
But that is, you can't say that it's a red carpet to the quarterfinals a bit, but man, you probably can't ask for much more at this World Cup. think it's probably the softest draw that you could get to the quarterfinal. Something we were just talking about before the podcast is like, listen, there's no easy round of 16 game. These are the 16 best teams in the world. They're going good.
00:02:40
Speaker
But if you are not... playing one of the top four or five teams right i think the u.s is going to be one of the teams that you would feel the best about like playing unless you were like a surprise team to get there like say you're the third place team and you upset belgium then yeah the u.s is another hard game but you just beat belgium so it's fine ah like even if the u.s is in the middle of the 16 teams like A team that it's it's closer to the bottom four of that 16, right? 12 to 16, like, is just as soft as it gets. And even further, let's go a little further. Like, this isn't our full predictions pod, but if you just look at the bracket, I do have a feeling that this Spain quadrant is the most ripe for chaos. The most, like, a semi-finalist, your dark horse came from here because Spain is vulnerable and Belgium are also vulnerable. And maybe Belgium is the...
00:03:36
Speaker
Perhaps the big winner of all of it. You know, you could, as we talk about these teams, as we talk about Belgium, you could talk me into, hey, Belgium has a great path to ah a semifinal here, not just a quarterfinal, a semifinal, you know, go listen to our Spain podcast ah for more on them. But...
00:03:53
Speaker
this could be the quadrant of opportunity and it starts in this group. So, um, this draw, maybe we'll be wrong again. We've done 12 podcasts. Like maybe we'll be wrong from the start, but like, i do think some of these things matter. We've tried really hard to point at them. I think this is big, big circle winner of this group could, could have a ah great path. Yeah. And the runner up of this group will play the runner up of that U.S. group in Arlington. And then things probably get tougher in the round of 16. You're looking at the winner of the Argentina group or the runner up of that Spain group. So, again, that that's a potential Argentina matchup in the round of 16.
00:04:28
Speaker
But the the other group winners in that quadrant are the winner of Group B, which is the Canada group and the winner of the Portugal group. So Belgium, as you said, Amit, they might be the best team in that quadrant. They might have a chance to make the semifinal, depending on, as you say, could Spain be ripe for an upset and and that quarterfinal isn't against Spain. It turns out it against somebody else.
00:04:48
Speaker
um So the question for Belgium is, can Dooku drag the golden generation into contention, right? It's the 15th World Cup of appearance for Belgium. They made the semifinals in 2018 and finished third. They also made a semifinal in 1986. They reached the quarterfinals in 2014, but were dumped out of the group stage in 2022 in what was a difficult group alongside Morocco, Croatia, and Canada.
00:05:10
Speaker
They were, though, ranked second in the world at that point, although that ranking was probably a bit juiced. At the Euros, it was a similar story. They got out in the round of 16 in 2024 after they finished second in a group behind Romania. They had to play France in the round of 16, and they lost 1-0.
00:05:23
Speaker
They had a pair of Euro quarterfinal losses to Wales in Italy in 16 and 20. They qualified to this World Cup by two points in a group that contained Wales, North Macedonia, Kazakhstan, and Liechtenstein.
00:05:36
Speaker
They didn't lose. They made a mess of Wales twice in two wins and they drew North Macedonia and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan was away. Not great, right? This is a generation of it that I think maybe peaked eight years ago, but eight years later is still enough to be in the top 10 in the world, but probably a cut below the elite. So can very few young players come into that generation and pull them over the line and take advantage of this golden opportunity that sits in front of them?
00:06:07
Speaker
It's a great question. I think you're trying to place this team in the world rankings, like even just in tiers. And, you know, I think Netherlands and Germany are a little bit better to them. And we kind of have them as seven, players.
00:06:22
Speaker
And obviously the the the top four, the five and six, right? They are pretty clear to me. i think player for player, like this team is worse than them because there is a few world-class players in the squad we're about to talk about. And then there's a lot of, as we said, this golden generation never really things came through after that because those players are so good. And I think, you know, Belgium is...
00:06:46
Speaker
you know it's ah It's a great footballing country, relatively, but like not as much of a machine in development like yeah you know the European powerhouses in front of them. So I i think 9th is fair for them, and I think what's a really interesting question for this team is, are they actually 9th or 10th? How much are the...
00:07:06
Speaker
the real like middle of the second tier that are a little bit more unknown. How close are they to them? um Teams like Ecuador, teams like Columbia, teams like the United States, you know, pick your, you know, not quite dark horsey, but a little bit of pressure on teams to make a run. And then that's a really interesting question for this team because the the players are there from that top five, six, seven team in the world. Again, as you went through the results, like this team was mostly just a quarter finalist at the biggest events. Yeah.
00:07:35
Speaker
Good thing to be. they They got over that hump like once to a semifinal, but generally that they were right at the top eight. Even if they're not in the top eight, though, this this draw is right there for them.
00:07:46
Speaker
I think as we talk about this team and we outline the expectations, you would think this team should get to the quarterfinal given the path that they have. And maybe maybe like because of the path and because the talent is good enough, they could make that semifinal.
00:08:02
Speaker
But in terms of top-end talent, all of this is massaging. like I don't think it's high enough to be considered truly elite.
Belgium's Playing Style and Key Players
00:08:10
Speaker
Rudy Garcia, a Spaniard, is the manager. i Mostly came through France, had had turns at Lille, Marseille, Lyon. Had a four-year stint at Roma. Also spent a year in Saudi Arabia at Al Nasser. Lasted 16 games at Napoli. Came in after Dominico Tedesco, who flamed out after the Euro. He, Amit, believes in attacking, pressing, freedom, fluidity.
00:08:30
Speaker
He's a good manager for Belgium's midfield and attack. Might not be a good manager for their defense. He's a very Spanish manager, very like fun on the ball. Honestly reminds me a lot of Roberto Martinez who, you know, was brought in to get the most out of Belgium's attacking talent and play expansive soccer. Remembering this Belgium team in the mid 2010s, like that golden generation was really fun on the ball and, oozing with class and i do think this front three suits really well to this interchange style it's about fluidity it's about possession and look one thing we saw from qualifying we said they kind of got into messes with Wales not a great team maybe in the third tier of European teams is that this team isn't really great at defending and so this style will lead to open games you remember even Martinez played open games it's going to be very similar I think um
00:09:25
Speaker
It's going to be lots of goals, and they're just hoping that eventually their quality on the ball, if you give them time, hurts you. And I think the best teams will try to punish them by saying, OK, you were good on the ball, but you can't have it because you have to chase us. So they want to be on the ball as much as possible and try to use it to hurt you. It's ah it's a fun style. I think they're also not the best athletes on the back of the field, so they have to use the ball to protect themselves. I think this team is similar to honestly like Croatia in terms of old savviness, good on the ball and less like the Netherlands and Germany in terms of like pressing athletes. it's It's not really like that. It's very interesting because look we're going to dig into all four teams in this group as we go. But this group is such an interesting test for them because they're not playing teams that are generally prone to that open style of game. Right.
00:10:15
Speaker
What we know about Iran, about Egypt and about New Zealand and their approach to football in general suggests that this group could look a little funky when we get to those clashes of styles.
00:10:26
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not exactly sure how it's going to play out. I think you if you tried to dream up how to to play Belgium, beat Belgium, you'd want teams that are a bit more adventurous. and just i don't like we We've seen those teams. you seen You know Egypt and Iran. Even if you don't know New Zealand, you could guess you're going to hear us talk about New Zealand. like Not the types of teams that come and try to to take it to you. so We'll see how that works out. i mean Just on level, again, before we talk about those other three teams, like you'd expect Belgium to somewhat coast through these three opponents. so You'd expect that. and They should just have the ball and be good, but maybe those teams...
00:11:09
Speaker
decide to play a different thing than we've seen. And then we get to see some questions asked. That's what maybe the neutral or or you you want to know how good Belgium is you want to see. i don't know. i do not know how it's going to look.
00:11:22
Speaker
So where do you want to start with this team? Should we start with that defense or should we start with the the midfield triumvirate? That's probably the engine here. yeah Let's start with the stars. I think the the players you expect to be the best. Look, Kevin De Bruyne is a world-class midfielder, was one of the best midfielders of all time at Manchester City. He's a little bit old, but he went to Napoli. And look, he's lost a step, but he's still one of the best passers in the world, one of the best vision, creative thinkers in the world, and a good shooter as well.
00:11:51
Speaker
And so he's going to be the 10. He's the heart of everything. and And listen, he's not going to run so much, but he can run enough. It's not like he he doesn't work. he's He's just not very fast. The real star here is Jeremy Doku on the left.
00:12:02
Speaker
He is ascended, I think, under Pep Guardiola into one of the best left wingers in the world. He is fast and direct, but he's also a great take on artist. So he can hurt you in transition. He can hurt you against a set defense.
00:12:15
Speaker
Manchester City kind of built... their attack around funneling the ball to him and letting him work one-on-one on a wingback. He likes to get to the byline and then cut back to a striker. i think that's what he's trying to do the most, but you'll see him cut in and shoot.
00:12:29
Speaker
His shooting has kind of been his one weakness and he added it. Maybe he added it. Shooting is pretty variable. I think right right there, your one, two is is elite. This is ah any team that gives them time. You're in trouble. You have to stop these guys. A couple of rockets in the Premier League for Doku down the stretch, right? And so you're kind of asking, okay, is that something he's got in his bag now? And if he is, he might be unplayable.
00:12:52
Speaker
And like literally that's the right word. he He shouldn't have had that. And if he does, he is perhaps the best left wing in the world. So let's see, can you count on that? But listen, if Belgium need that magic, right? You've got a guy you're saying, give me a, give me a world. And you can't really say those things in like preview podcasts, but as we see in the actual world cup matches, like sometimes a spectacular is expected almost to to get you through big moments. Yeah.
00:13:18
Speaker
On the right, I think they got a lot of options here. It'll probably be Salamikers at Milan to start. He's a very just support right midfielder, but he's good at a little bit of everything. Good runner, good crosser, good dribbler. Listen, he's going to play off the front three and make sure that Doku has options to cross to, or if a team overloads too much, he can kind of attack a set defense. They've also got Leandro Trossard at Arsenal, who is probably to me the sub here, the fourth player. He's not as fast, but he's a very, very tidy player on the ball in tight spaces. So if you're backed off, he can come in, get that half pocket in the box and score. And I think what you're, what the the proof of concept for this team is you've got the Spanish manager, you've got three smart attacking guys.
00:14:04
Speaker
They should just be able to move your defense around the way they want and then find your weakness. I'm really bullish on this front three, like being really excellent on the ball. We saw it against the United States. We even seen it against Wales. Like if you do not close them down, they are too good. They simply are. So I like it a lot.
00:14:24
Speaker
So we've got those front three. You use the illustration. Well, right. Moving pieces around, creating spaces. Who are they creating those chances for in the year 2026? Amit? That's the funny part. And obviously, you know, Belgium, you know who to expect it. It's big Rom Lukaku still going back, back when he was at West Brom, Everton, you know, Chelsea, Roma. He's been around, um,
00:14:47
Speaker
And I think it is also kind of a failure for Belgium that they couldn't really get another striker into this pipeline. There was a lot of hope on Lois Appenda. You remember our Euro 2024 podcast? You were like, this guy's a Leipzig guy. He's really going to shine. He's super fast. Yeah.
00:15:02
Speaker
And he kind of has just flamed out a little bit in his career. He was left off for pretty much bad form, which is crazy when he could have been a third striker here. he He's been kind of hurt, but like I'm really shocked to not see him. The next best striker is Matias Fernandez Pardo at Lille. He's a Spanish kind of international that changed ah federations.
00:15:25
Speaker
He's just worse than Lukaku. Yeah, he's 21 and has zero caps for Belgium, right? Like that's what they're dealing with here. Yeah. And so look, you've watched Romelu Lukaku play for Belgium in your head on real life a hundred times. You know what it looks like. He's still big. He's still strong. He is a good poacher in the box at getting in the box.
00:15:46
Speaker
And then he's maddening because sometimes he needs four or five chances of to score what should have been his first chance. And that could be Belgium's Achilles heel. I think again. ah You put it this way to me. We were talking about this earlier. ah He'll score the third chance. Do not watch the first two. yeah yeah It's it like this team really should set him up to just just have easy stuff in the box or headers and.
00:16:13
Speaker
I fear he could miss some sitters. I hope not. You know, I think if he's firing or even just competent, like this team is in business, right? He doesn't need to be excellent, but he can't be underperforming. He cannot go cold. And we've just seen that too many times. I mean, think back to 2022, right? It's the perfect example. Belgium don't get out of the group stage pretty much because Robin Lukaku just went ice cold and could not finish anything.
00:16:38
Speaker
Yeah, and we saw it again at Euro 2024 too. So listen, it's hard to expect anything different, but it's like unfair to him to basically say that we're counting on him to underperform. like Is he just bad now? I don i don't know, but like it'd be hard to to expect him to be elite anymore.
00:16:58
Speaker
Feels like that is a massive, massive question with this Belgium side. And as we move back from those midfield and attackers, there's more questions sitting around here as well. Yeah, the center midfield is solid. I don't think these guys are plus-plus players, but they're plus players. They are okay center midfielders for a top-ten team in the world. It's Amadou Unana at Aston Villa and then Nicholas Raskin at Rangers in Scotland.
00:17:22
Speaker
um Look, they're solid pieces on... championship Europa level or Champions League Europa League fringe teams like Villa and Rangers are good enough.
00:17:34
Speaker
They're both tall. They're both physical. Onana is great defensive player. Raskin can do a little bit of everything. Look, it's a good pivot. There's not a lot of depth. Because then you go back to, oh, it's an old golden generation guy. It's Alex Witzel, who is like their third midfielder or their fourth midfielder is Jori Tielemans, who I think this season kind of got phased out of Villa's midfield plan because he is old and slow.
00:17:57
Speaker
Still a good passer, but like... So the depth here is a worry for me for for CERN. And we talk about that front three. The depth there is great. There's ah a lot of young, exciting attackers who actually can play. There's Dodi Ludabacchio at Benfica, Diego Marrera, who's a speed demon. and The player i'm really excited about is Charles de Quetelare at Atalanta.
00:18:17
Speaker
Could be a game-changing super sub, six three box crashing number 10, but also can pass. Really intrigued about him.
Defensive Strategies and Challenges for Belgium
00:18:25
Speaker
As you move back, the depth in center midfield is worrying. I also like those guys just need to do the unspectacular work to help the front three.
00:18:34
Speaker
If they drop off at all, that's a problem. And then you move even further back. And I think there's even more questions. And the defense is made up of it. It kind of feels like this whole Belgium team is made up of guys who are either 22 24 or to There's a whole generation that's just really not here.
00:18:51
Speaker
Like two generations almost. It's it's crazy. Yeah. so listen, I think Brandon Mechelet at Bruges your old experience guy. He's very slow and a bad passer, but he's a good physical defender. I imagine he starts. He started all the big games for them next to him. I'm not sure what they're going to do.
00:19:10
Speaker
Zeno DeBast is at sporting. He's one of the young guys. He's got a lot of potential. Good passer on the ball. He's not also not fast either, but like... Listen, plenty of teams play two bruisers. That's that's not going to hurt you.
00:19:22
Speaker
Nathan Ngoi at Lille is a 22. He is fast. He's a bit raw. I don't know if we'll see Rudy Garcia play this guy. He's a bit inexperienced. And then like...
00:19:34
Speaker
worse than Mechelay is Arthur Thiet at Frankfurt. He is like slow German center back. He's slow Belgian. Like, again, he's of the level, but is he of the level? Like he's right on that cusp for this, for a 10-inch team in the world.
00:19:48
Speaker
Then at right back, it's another slow old guy. It's Thomas Mounier, part of the golden generation. He's 34. Listen, he's still a cultured player on the ball, but... Do you like your fullback to be 34 and slow? like i I don't know. Theoretically, Timothy Castagna at Fulham should be a better player. right He's younger. He's just not also fast. so like You started saying they could they could be playing three guys that are slow, which I don't love. Maybe you see Garcia experiment with trying to get more pace in there. I don't know if they're going to need that pace. The one bright spot left back, Maxim DeKuyper at Brighton.
00:20:25
Speaker
Look, Brighton has a lot of like Dutch DNA, even this Belgian DNA. DeKuyper is a really good player. He is fast, but he's excellent on the ball. and And the key for him, at least if everything else is replacement level for for this level, DeKuyper is going to help unlock Doku on the overload and make sure that you cannot guard him on a double.
00:20:46
Speaker
So that is a really exciting piece. The depth behind him is bad, though. They really... Losing DeKuyper would hurt. And this... The center back depth is fine. I just don't think any of them are good. I think at the level, this is a weakness for them. They were exposed by whales. They can get exposed by physical teams. If you take the ball to them, they are not great at tracking and that kind of
Belgium vs Group G Opponents and Predictions
00:21:09
Speaker
stuff. So I'm worried. The good news, though, is gold. they have one of the best players in the world.
00:21:13
Speaker
Tible Courtois, another golden generation player, but it kind of feels like a bit goalkeepers age a bit differently, right? Like Courtois obviously is 34, but he's still a high level goalkeeper. And look, we're going to talk about goalkeepers in this group who are older, much older than Tible Courtois, who are perhaps going to play a role here. So this feels like it's a strong spot for them. And and they're counting on Courtois to be a long rangy shot stopper like we know he can be.
00:21:38
Speaker
They're going to need him. we We see him play some of these high event games and he can steal you entire matches. And look, I think that's one thing for Belgium that even if you don't love this defense and I don't write, they've got some X factors. They've got Courtois who can steal you a game. He can steal you a shootout and then set pieces will be a plus for this team.
00:21:58
Speaker
De Bruyne on delivery, and then you've got Onana in midfield. You've got these center backs. Even if they're slow, I think De Bast and Mechale should be good in the air. And then, you know, even Lukaku is a big target. That sub, De Ketelare, is a big target. So even if things don't work for them, they can kind of Go to like plan B or C, which is be extremely boring European team and hurt you with with with set pieces and maybe steal some saves. So they've got some of that tough to kill this, which I think will help them.
00:22:31
Speaker
So I think it kind of boils down to this for Belgium is you've made the case here that we don't really know if they're at the level, right? Like that seems to be the overarching question here. But my response to that is, what are we going to find out if they are right? And that might be the key to how long this World Cup goes for Belgium, because until they run up against a team that is clearly better than them, they probably should have enough in their bag to just kind of take care of it, even if it might be a bit more open and a bit less comfortable than you would hope or expect.
00:23:08
Speaker
Yeah, that's well said. And i I don't know, like to me, the data point I keep coming back to is that USA Belgium game in the first half, USA had the better athletes and and kind of press them and,
00:23:21
Speaker
dominated, not dominated, but outplayed them slightly. USA outplayed them at best, like slightly. The second half, Belgium walked them off the field with class. And then once the U.S. were behind, and listen, I think some of that was the U.S. trying to play Pochettino's pressing and not being super invested. You can't play that system and not be super invested at this level.
00:23:43
Speaker
Belgium are too good. But the U.S. might be the best team Belgium could face until a quarterfinal. So, I don't know. i don't know. And we're going talk about the other teams.
00:23:56
Speaker
I may, I'm, think Egypt might be able to push them, but I I'm also not counting on it. So that's to me, the one thing in this group, I need to see that game. I need to see what it's like. Hey, you've got to stop.
00:24:09
Speaker
going to talk about Mo Salah, Marmush. Can, can you stop too fast, talented attackers? And if they do, even if the rest of Egypt isn't up to it, I will feel a little bit better.
00:24:21
Speaker
I do not know where this team is, to be honest. I just don't. I think they're one of the more intriguing teams at the World Cup, and and it's made all that more intriguing because of the situation they find themselves in with the relative weakness of the group, the relative openness of the draw. They're going to be a fascinating side to watch. And like Belgium always are at the World Cup, right? Like they've been kind of intriguing to us for years now, and that's certainly not going to change at this World Cup. The team that came out of pot two in this group is Iran. There's a whole lot that we could talk about here. We did talk about some of it on our general World Cup preview. If you missed that, you can go check that out. It was the first show that we put out in kind of this World Cup cycle. Once we got done with qualifying, there are obviously wars, rumors of wars, the politicization of sport. All of that is relevant with Iran. There is a non-zero chance that something happens between now and the start of World Cup that changes everything that we're about to talk about with Iran.
00:25:18
Speaker
um I think our best approach here is to simply acknowledge that all of that is there. We did our best to tackle those issues earlier. Let's try and figure out what we're going to see on the field. um And look, if there was a 30 or 90 second insert at the start of this podcast, you'll know that something happened that maybe changed the calculus.
00:25:35
Speaker
ah Iran hasn't played a match in the U.S. since 2000. A friend of the show, Henry Bresno, had a really good piece on The Athletic about that group and about that match. Their training camp, which was supposed to be held in Tucson, Arizona, was moved to Tijuana, Mexico at the last minute.
00:25:52
Speaker
The plan for Iran at this point is to stay in Mexico, fly into the U.S., play a game, and fly out for as long as they are here at the World Cup. There's a chance that they could play games outside of the U.S., s but again, the longer you go in the World Cup, the more American it becomes.
00:26:08
Speaker
I don't know if that can actually work in the modern World Cup. It certainly doesn't seem like it's going to be a positive for them, but maybe it reduces distraction. And that's something that we can look at. ah The off the field stuff of it is something that is absolutely going to play a role here. And there's really no way around it There isn't. It's hard to know exactly how it's going to show up at this point. like we've we've We've covered the context. You, listener, probably appreciate the context.
00:26:38
Speaker
But trying to guess... like how it manifests itself is tough. I think any like weird sorts of things could happen. I think the Federation could do something. I think the governments, the the United States government, the Iran government could do something. The players could do something like the fans could do something. They're just, there's so many variables that could pop up in any way that,
00:27:04
Speaker
Affect the field. Don't affect... like I don't know. It's it's really hard to to predict. And listen, we we can't. I think it's just you have to be prepared with this team, with with the whole tournament, as we've said on the preview part, but with this team that things are just going to be a little bit wonky. And listen, to talk about the on-the-field part like with trying to can't have a camp in Tijuana and then play in Mexico, I Listen, i don't think it was really going to make sense for this team to have a camp the United States. I get it. I get that part of it.
00:27:36
Speaker
How that affects your travel and your miles and your fatigue, I don't love. I don't love. like Maybe for the group stage, it's it's not going to hurt them, but you've just added a wrinkle. And i probably probably would have done the same thing. I would not have let my players have a camp in the United States. Tucson, not Tucson. I just wouldn't have done that.
00:27:57
Speaker
Let's see. Let's see. It's it's hard to get to the soccer part of all of this, but getting there, it's already you can see that it is playing feels like playing catch up feels like trying to just like just like claw for just getting to the field and having it only be the field. And it's not going to be that.
00:28:20
Speaker
And the thing that's so hard about it all is we don't know how the off the field stuff affects the on the field stuff because there are so many different outcomes of that. Like there's absolutely a scenario in which this becomes a rallying point for the squad itself and they play better because of it. Like that's on the table here. And that's something that you and i sitting here at this point in time and really until we see it on the field really are just not going to know. And that's what I think makes couching all of that discussion difficult is It's not like we can sit here and say this is ah objectively all negative and is going to affect them in a negative manner. That's absolutely possibly the case. That could be what happens. But again, it could have different effects. So that's the off the field discussion that is absolutely relevant with a run.
00:29:04
Speaker
On the field, they're making their seventh World Cup appearance. They've been at four straight World Cups. They've been at five and six. They have never advanced past the group stage. They were comfortable in qualifying. They had four wins and two draws from a second round group with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Hong Kong. Drew twice with Uzbekistan, beat the other sides. In the third round, they were very good. Seven wins, two draws, and one loss. They qualified with ease with two matches to go. That one loss came after they had already qualified. And they played some teams off the pitch in qualifying, which we'll get to in a second. Amir Galanoi is the manager. He's been in charge since 2023, has a long career in the Iranian league.
00:29:40
Speaker
He is not Carlos Kairos, but his approach is not going to be that different. They'll be defensive. They'll be organized. That said, against lesser opposition, they'll play a bit. And there have been times over the past couple of years that we've seen that from them.
00:29:53
Speaker
They played Qatar off the pitch in a 4-1 qualifying win. They just smoked Costa Rica 5-0 in a March Friendly. The main goal here, Amit, I think is for them to not beat themselves, to score with as few numbers as possible going forward. But we've seen some surprisingly silky stuff from Iran over the past few years.
00:30:13
Speaker
Yeah, some of these attackers are just very skilled on the ball and they're smart IQ attackers. They have a lot of chemistry working with each other. um They're good enough that if you give them time and like space to combine, they they can figure out how to hurt you. It's a pretty physical, direct style. And the other thing about this team is their floor is just very high. like it Match to match, they are very solid and and know their game plans well.
00:30:42
Speaker
I agree. It's not quite Carlos Caros, but it's a very, very professional outfit. um it's It's always been a strength of theirs. I think you talked about Asian qualifying. I think you know Japan is the is the class of Asia, perhaps. I think won won that over, but it's hard to ah have taken the very odd challenge of Asian qualifying better than Iran did. so Listen, this is also, as we talk about this team, the the kind of...
00:31:09
Speaker
back end of this cycle of relevance and look the pipeline is there for some of these players but this is kind of a post prime for them and they have been through this cycle so many times they know what to do like that that to me is is what's a calling card for them can they like can it be a positive experience and not feel stale that is what's tough to to me about this team They're nearly top 20 in the FIFA rankings. Obviously, some of that is juiced because they munch on the rest of Asia. But again, being the pretty clear second best team in Asia is something, right? Like there's value in that. And I think we shouldn't be surprised.
00:31:51
Speaker
If Iran are in the knockout stages making noise because the talent is there. So what is the talent? The headliner is, of course, Manny Taremi. He's 33 now, plays for Olympiacos in Greece, but he is a super mobile nine. Great movement. He can drift here and there. He's a clinical finisher.
00:32:08
Speaker
He is the focal point of the attack, but he can do a lot of things and he can do them well. That said, his running mate for a long time has been Sardar Osmond. He is not here. It seems pretty clearly that he is not here for political reasons. That said, he's publicly put his support behind the team. There's been some Iranian state media that are trying to sell that Osman is not here because he's hurt. I don't think that's the case.
00:32:33
Speaker
Osman not being here is a big loss because the two-man game between Taremi and Osman was probably the strongest part of the Iranian attack. Yeah, you're missing Osmoone a lot, um which is tough.
00:32:49
Speaker
It really hurts them. I mean, it's a bummer what happened to Ramey. Still so good, though. I think they just need to find a way to so support him with runners. Listen, he's he he kind of has fallen off in the past years on the club football level. I think he still brings it for Iran. and He is the focal point.
00:33:05
Speaker
he just needs He just needs combination play. like He's not a do-it-by-himself guy. He's a very smart attacker in pockets. That's where he's lethal on the counter. Everything about Iran is trying to get to two-on-two, three-on-three, and that's where Tarami really flourishes.
00:33:20
Speaker
And that's why Osman was such a key piece because they had that two-man game that comes from playing alongside up top each other in so many different scenarios for so many years. Another attacking player who's not here is Ali Golazada. He's out with injury. That one actually seems to be legitimately an injury.
00:33:37
Speaker
So without both of those guys, we're probably looking at Amir Hussain Hussain Azada, who is 25 at Tractor in the Iranian Domestic League. He's played off to Rebysum. He can flex wide. He's a good passer. He's a creative player.
00:33:51
Speaker
But it's just not going to be at the level that I think we would see if it were Osmond up there. The rest of the attack, Mehdi Gayeri is at Al Maser in the UAE. He's probably going to be their guy on the left.
00:34:02
Speaker
Aliretza Yohanbash obviously is a well-known figure for this team. He's 32. Might be more of a rotation piece at this point, but there might be a spot on the right wing. Saman Golos has been their kind of creative midfielder.
00:34:16
Speaker
He's at Al-Itzihad in the UAE. He's older now. He doesn't quite have the legs that he used to, and he's kind of started to drop back for a run, but he can still pick a pass and be a dangerous player. And the rest of the attacking players, you're looking at Mohamed Wahabi at Rostov in Russia. He might be the guy they go on the right instead of Yachan Vash. He could also play central. He's bigger, not as fast.
00:34:36
Speaker
He's an aerial threat. He can pass. He can make smart runs, even if you might take him a little bit to get there. Manny Tarabi is a bit faster. And then completely out of nowhere is Dennis Eckert, who is 29 years old, German born and has five goals this year for starting Liege in the Belgian league. There is some chatter in Iranian media that they have no idea what this guy is doing in this team.
00:35:00
Speaker
There's some chatter that they have no idea if this guy can actually be in this team. He supposedly has Iranian grandparents. I hope for the sake of Iran's World Cup campaign that they're not throwing someone out there who is not actually eligible for them.
00:35:14
Speaker
He might be a hold-up plan B guy, but it's also just kind of very Iranian for this guy to just come out out of nowhere. There might be some shady string-pulling backers from various points, as there so often is with the Iranian Federation.
00:35:29
Speaker
It's a weird situation. i don't know that we'll see much of Eckert. This attack is so predicated on taking advantage of counterattacking opportunities in those two-on-two, three-on-three situations, and you just are a bit worried that that piece might not be there to pull all of that off.
00:35:46
Speaker
Yeah, i'm not you're worried about what the second and third piece is. And Jahan Bakash has been that guy, and I just don't know if you could count on him. Maybe to me at this point, he's kind of a super sub to to come in for 30 minutes and and try to do that.
00:36:00
Speaker
Look, I think there's a lot on Hosentzada at Tractor, right, to to kind of have a lot of pressure on him. And then someone's got to step up. I mean... Godos is is kind of a passer. He's not going to be a runner. Like, is it Mohebe?
00:36:15
Speaker
Maybe that's your guy to be physical and lump the ball long and try to work a two-man game that way with Taremi. I mean, I would love to so tell you, like, Eckert's going to come in and be a prospect. Not a prospect. He's 29. Like, he's going to be the secret player for Iran. But, like, that's...
00:36:33
Speaker
A fool's errand. We've never seen that. i don't know. Listen, I think there's some... Five goals for standardly age? Like... Right. So there's some managing here for Gallinoe to do. He's going to have to find a way that works. And as we talk with the rest of the team you know, Iran is going to try to be solid defensively, but you can't get through the group stage in this format without finding goals, without having a plan to have goals. So he's going to have to so try some things. Maybe we'll see a rotation of guys.
00:37:03
Speaker
these guys are going to have to play above their level than what they've shown to so far for i Ron for a little bit. I don't think it's impossible. i think it's just we, again, very hard to to predict here, especially when Asmund goes out exactly what that looks like.
00:37:17
Speaker
Said Ezatolahi is probably going to be the holding player alongside Godos. He's at Shabab in the UAE. And then the rest of the team, the the defense and the goalkeeping is ah bog standard Iranian league, if you want to put it that way a bit. And they also might be super, super old. Rahman Reza Zane is 36. Jojay Kalazada is 37.
00:37:41
Speaker
Ali Namati is 30. And Milad Mohammadi is 32. And that is probably your back four starting for Iran in the opening match. Ehsan Hajafasi is 36. He might be an option at left back. Hossein Kazazanagan is 32. And he might feature if they go five.
00:37:57
Speaker
This team is old. Yeah, it's old and the level is not great. I mean, the Iranian league is not great. I think it can be a feeder into some of those leagues in Europe. Listen, we've seen these guys play for Iran at the level of being probably ah ah the best defense in Asia.
00:38:16
Speaker
That's a decent level, but there's not a lot of great attacks in Asia outside of like Japan and South Korea. And Iran can kind of hold their own with that. I think despite the age, they can kind of hold their own in this group.
00:38:31
Speaker
You just have to play so defensively as a style, as a system to accommodate for them. um Listen, when these guys were a bit younger, it was very, very effective. Like I know they didn't get out of the group. in 1822 but like this team pushed the united states this team pushed argentina like it's there it's the same guys trying to do the pushing and i think it it's not impossible it's just four years harder like in a sense They're absolutely counting on the collectiveness of all of this, right? None of these guys are individually stellar defenders. They're counting on the combined unit to simply work, which it has for a long time for Iran. But again, the ages kind of make you say...
00:39:14
Speaker
I don't know if that's going to be able to be pulled off this time. Let's see. Alreza Berevan is 32. He's going to be the starting goalkeeper. You've alluded to it a bit, but but the pieces that in past World Cups have convinced people to pick them to go on a semifinal run. Okay, fine. That was me. I did that 2022. Didn't happen. Sorry.
00:39:34
Speaker
Didn't get close, actually. Those pieces are still here, but it just kind of feels like that bit of top-level talent That being just a step older, the whole political headwinds thing that we've talked about, all of that combines to, I think, kind of dampen the expectations here.
00:39:53
Speaker
But then again, the group is wide open. It is. it is. i think in all three matches, they can find a path to a point or more, especially against Egypt and New Zealand. They could get six and and then you say you you finish in second, you could have the USA, right? And that would be ah ah crazy, crazy game.
00:40:16
Speaker
Yeah, that's something that's on the cards here, right? The round of 32 could be second place USA against second place Iran, and it would probably break the entirety of the FIFA World Cup. We'll cross that bridge if we get there. Let's talk about Egypt, who are making their fourth World Cup appearance. They were one and done all the way back in 1934. They would have been the 1930 World Cup, but...
00:40:37
Speaker
Their boat was late getting to France. And so their boat leaving from France left without them. And they didn't play in the 1930 World Cup. Different times, my friend, different times. They also had group stage exits in 1990 2018. They have a pretty tortured history with qualifying recently.
00:40:55
Speaker
They lost in a playoff on penalties to Senegal in 2022. They were smoked in a playoff for a World Cup spot by Ghana in 2014. And then they lost a very weird tie-breaking playoff to Algeria in 2010.
00:41:08
Speaker
But this time around, qualifying didn't ask a whole bunch of them. Eight wins and two draws in a group alongside Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, Ethiopia, and Djibouti. At the most recent AFCON, which was held just six months ago, they beat Benin and Ivory Coast to the knockout stage, lost to Senegal 1-0 in the semifinals.
00:41:27
Speaker
This is a team, Amit, that might be the best position team to take advantage of the opportunity that this group has plopped right in front of them. I think so. I think on talent, this team is better than Iran.
00:41:43
Speaker
This is the third pot team. Iran's the second team. i believe that. And there's some high end talent here. And look, the AFCON to me is the the proof of concept. Yeah. Beating Ivory Coast. And look, they scored in the third minute in that game. But Ivory Coast is a very good team. And I think...
00:42:00
Speaker
we We knew they were going to be okay in qualifying. That group was pretty soft. They did it. Credit to them. But the AFCON, the way they played and specifically the way they introduced a bit more juice to their attacking game, it's not quite the same team from 2018 or the team that missed in 2022 that was just a little too defensive and stale.
00:42:23
Speaker
They know they have to threaten the other way in verticality, and they have more than just solid to do it. And then that frees up everyone else to play the system a little bit better.
00:42:35
Speaker
Look, I think also, as we talk about this team, all these Alali guys are solid. Like, Alali is a good team. And that's kind of always been the case. But the development slash just overall talent level is just getting there.
00:42:48
Speaker
Listen, I think this team is maybe fifth or sixth in Africa, but Africa is getting better and they're right there with an Ivory Coast who might be ahead of them. Then Nigeria isn't here and they push Senegal in ah in a good game. And look, Senegal is ah a really tough team, but it was not like they were blown off the field. So honestly, you talk about what team is closer to 20 here. It could be Egypt versus Iran. I think it's a fascinating, fascinating group for them to make a mark. I think.
00:43:19
Speaker
You know, in the past, you could kind of say, look, Egypt was just going to defend for 90 minutes, try to get through, score as little as possible, play for pens if they got to a knockout. We saw that also in their AFCONs, like the the whole play for pens style.
00:43:32
Speaker
It's not quite that right now. I think they really, really predicated a style on running and verticality. It's still defensive, but it's a much more effective. there are more It feels like there's more tools for them to use here. And they were super clinical at the AFCON. That's how they beat Ivory Coast is they got two and a half chances and turned it into three goals in that game. And a credit to them for that. Hassan Hassan is the manager. He's Egypt's all-time leading scorer. He's been their manager since February of 2014. For a goal scorer, his style, as you've said a bit, is fairly pragmatic.
00:44:05
Speaker
They'll defend. They're organized. Numbers behind the ball. All of that that we've been accustomed to with Egypt is still here, right? That's still... the base of this team. But as you said, they are gradually opening up more on the counter. That's how they got Ivory Coast at the AFCON. And we have to start with Mohamed Salah because he's the star here. He's 33, maybe doesn't have the burst he once did, but he's still a luxury for a team like this.
00:44:31
Speaker
Absolutely can impact this group. It's a case to be made. He's one of the most talented players in this group. But crucially for Egypt, it's not just Salah in attack. They have Omar Marmush, who's developed into a very nice foil, versatile, has learned how to play off and with Salah, which has been huge. And if you give those two guys space on the counter, they can absolutely make you pay.
00:44:52
Speaker
Those two guys are key to everything Egypt wants to do. Their interchange, their ability to play, and the fact that they can go at you with something more than just Salah changes the whole outlook for Egypt.
00:45:06
Speaker
It really has. And again, they're first and foremost trying to hurt you running in behind. And that in the past has been all on Salah. Listen, he's not quite the super electric speedster he once was, but he still runs pretty high and has a great fitness and work rate.
00:45:23
Speaker
So he's constantly putting pressure on your back line. And look, that ball that Egypt are trying to play is a striker cuts in and then draws at the winger beyond to the channel. And both Marmush and Sala know this run. And then once the guy is in that area, both Marmush and Sala can hunt shots in the box, whether that's on the cutback, whether that's Sala cutting in on his left, as he liked to do. And Marmush is great in the center of the field. So it's very, very effective. And I think on top of the two of them,
00:45:56
Speaker
being good and necessary. The other players behind them now know the types of looks they want. So it's a very repeated patterned attack of playing off the two of them. Listen, if you're a Senegal and you're, you know, really committed, you can stop it for 90 minutes, but you have to really commit to stopping it. And it takes a lot of bodies to do it. So it's pretty effective. um i i think they're going to get goals against everyone in this group.
00:46:28
Speaker
You're going to notice a theme with the majority of the rest of the pieces here in this Egypt squad. ah Just behind Salah and Marmush, we're looking at Imam Asher, who's 28 at Al-Ali. I thought he was great at the AFCON. He really felt like he upped a level and really unlocked those deep runs that those guys were able to make back the other way. There's also Trezeguet. 31 at Al-Ali. He's a fantastic attacking player who's been in this Egypt setup for a long time. And Zizo, who's 30 at Al-Ali. They're all going to have roles here. One of them probably sits to start games.
00:47:00
Speaker
Asher's the more central of the three. I think he's the one that I feel strongest about starting. Chezget and Zizo are kind of more wingy outside players. Asher could also start further back if Egypt feel good about a matchup and are willing to to get a little frisky.
00:47:15
Speaker
Interestingly here, Mustafa Muhammad, who's at Nantes in France, but had a really bad season, is not in the squad, didn't make the Egypt squad for the World Cup. But Hassem Hassan, who was born in Paris and is 24, playing at Oviedo in Spain, committed to Egypt in March and is here. He's an inverted ringer winger, I should say, on the right side.
00:47:34
Speaker
Could see time and attack if they want to to break up that all a tremor. He's just another attacking body that they can add to this mix of what is a fairly decent quality attacking look. Behind those guys, it's Marwanathia. He's 27. You guessed it. He's at Al-Ali. He holds probably alongside Mohan and Lashin, who's actually at Pyramids in Egypt. When they go more defensive, you're looking at those two guys. And again, as i mentioned, Asher could slide in here if they're willing to be a bit more open, probably in the place of Lashin.
00:48:03
Speaker
At fullback, it's Mohan and Hani at Al-Ali and Ahmed Abu El-Futwa, who's at Zamelech in Egypt. And then in central defense, it's Hamid Fatih, who used to be at Al-Ali, but is now at Al-Wakra in Qatar.
00:48:14
Speaker
He used to be a holding mid. He's now moved back into central defense. He's a destroyer. And he's going to start alongside of Yassir Ibrahim. And admit you're never going guess where he plays. let me guess. Al-Ali. Oh, you got it right. There you go. And then Mohamed Abdelmanam, who's at Nice, but but don't worry. He came up through the Al-Ali system. He tore his ACL last year and has not played at all this year. He played four minutes in a friendly that that Egypt had in March against Spain, but he could be a more modern center back option if he's fit. He's in the squad.
00:48:48
Speaker
Let's see. And to close it all out again, we'll go back to to the Al-Ali. Well, because there's already six of them in that projected lineup. There's not one, but two Al-Ali goalkeepers who could be the starter here. Mohamed El-Shinawi is 37. He's a historic fixture in this Egypt lineup. He has 75 caps.
00:49:07
Speaker
But Mahafa Chauvier, who's 26, has just seven caps, but is a bit more modern. He can play the ball. He's also a good shot stopper. He's the guy who started both friendlies in March. Egypt kept the clean sheet against Spain in March with Chauvier in goal. El Shanaoui only got 30 minutes in that window. And crucially, Chauvier has replaced El Shanaoui as the number one at Al-Ali in their biggest matches that do kind of rotate the goalkeeping spot.
00:49:32
Speaker
But Chauvier is the guy who's playing the African Champions League. I think that Egypt have a good plan in the pieces to make it work. There's a lot of dependence on guys at Al-Ali, but Al-Ali isn't that bad.
00:49:47
Speaker
It's pretty good, and it's one of the best clubs in Africa. We see them consistently in the deep stages of the African Champions League. Saw them acquit themselves pretty well at the Club World Cup. Again, a tournament we're grateful for to kind of see some of this stuff in action.
00:50:00
Speaker
um Look, I think the center players here, Atia and Lachine, are pretty important to the system. They cover a lot of ground, Atia in particular. And center back is solid. I mean, Fati is um a good destroyer.
00:50:16
Speaker
We'll see if Abdelmonim can come in with with the injury thing. I think he he elevates them to a little bit. They're actually pretty, they've always been tough against the ball, but these guys are very good in their defensive structures. And crucially, they're not slow. Like I know that Al Ali doesn't necessarily mean they're the best level compared to Europe, but like this team doesn't have to sit in the deep low block. right It's kind of mid block where they want to try to turn you over and create transition off of that. That's one that they're most dangerous. Like if they pick the ball off you in that middle third, they're they're going and being, then it's it's real trouble for your back line. So they're very opportunistic in that sense. It's not quite the same deep, deep block that you remember from Egypt. So
00:51:03
Speaker
I think the pieces are there and the midfield defense is all good. Look, I think, yes, you can you can pick on the fullbacks. You can pick on any, a lot of these teams fullbacks. That's going to be trouble. And listen, if they don't close you down, I think you can put their center backs under pressure, right? With, with, with top attackers, but like some of these middling tier teams without elite center backs,
00:51:26
Speaker
The work rate of the front six is how they kind of prevent you from that. And I do think they have a great front six, actually, to do that. The other player, you you mentioned him again. I'm doubling down. Asher was really good at the AFCON. He was the passer to unlock Salah and Marmush. They need him to be at that level again. But if he is...
00:51:44
Speaker
there's There's real like legitimacy to this attack having enough on the counter. And you you mentioned it, right? Their plan is is to pick you off in tough spots, and then it's one pass to Asher, and Asher's making the second pass. like That is the reductive game plan here for Egypt, and you said it.
00:52:01
Speaker
They're not as immobile as the Iranian defense is, and so they don't have to sit quite as far back, and that just gives them a bit more space to play with because... Those two-on-two, three-on-four situations aren't happening like right at the midline. They're happening further in the opposing area, the opposing attack. That should hopefully help them here as well.
00:52:22
Speaker
I think the the the first game against Belgium is super interesting because they are probably the best-equipped team in this group to work Belgium back the other way. right Particularly...
00:52:34
Speaker
with the absences that we talked about with Iran, with no Osman, with maybe a bit less in their attack. If this attack is here, and as you said, if Asher is playing at that high level that we saw six months ago at the AFCON, they can trouble Belgium.
00:52:49
Speaker
I feel pretty confident that they can triple Belgium. I think they definitely can get to Belgium's old center backs and full back and make them defend in space and try to contest midfield. Like it's a, it's a good game. I think you have to try to punch the Belgium back line and see where it's at.
00:53:04
Speaker
um I was so impressed that the way this team came out at the AFCON. I don't think that's a surprise anymore. I think Belgium is ready for this kind of game. Like you'd look at the other side, you see Salah and Marmoush. You're not going to be surprised. But, But they've kind of, i think there's going to be some respect that has to be given to them in a way that wasn't necessarily before. if you can't tell from both of us, I think we're pretty bullish on this Egypt team being dangerous.
00:53:29
Speaker
I think they're exactly the type of team that can make this draw count for them, that can look at the opportunity here and say, that can really work for us. And again, the other two teams of this group are interesting stylistic clashes for them because it's two teams that generally don't have the ball in Iran and New Zealand. Each is a team that also, when they level up, don't have the ball.
00:53:49
Speaker
It's going to really interesting to see where the ball goes in those those games that happen between those those three teams here. yeah the The one thing with Egypt is they like to play this transitional verticality style. It's a little tougher for them to chase a game 1-0 when the team is backed off. They really are a game state team. When they're up one, look, the center backs aren't great, but that threat of the counter is ruthless. And again, that's how they they got Ivory Coast, too, is playing from up one early was awesome. Real game state team here.
00:54:20
Speaker
Listen, down one, you have Sala and Marmouche. You find spots. It's just it's just harder so that is the one thing i think if they're in that belgium game they've got to be careful if they get into a knockout game against a good team like they've got to try to to to protect to to not get down one especially not chasing it down too so there is that sense and listen again with all these middling teams that are dangerous they're all game state teams in a sense so like let's let's see i think we're both really intrigued and
00:54:53
Speaker
That Belgium game, I think for the top two teams or or counting Egypt's top team, that Belgium is going to tell us a lot about what to expect out of two teams that could be dangerous. And Salah and Marmush really thrive in space. The less space they have, the harder it is for them. And and that's you know what you're talking about there, where if the game state goes against them, the There's just less space for those guys to operate in.
00:55:16
Speaker
Again, we saw in African qualifying, but again, the blocks that they saw in African qualifying were not at the level of the blocks that they're going to see here if if they're down a goal or against some of these teams. So it's exciting. i think they're a team that I'm really bullish on. and I don't want to spoil the preview podcast, but you can see some some Egypt love here hear from me. the last team in this group is New Zealand who are making their third World Cup appearance. They made it in 1982 and then were unbeaten in 2010, but did not make it out of the group stage with three draws.
00:55:44
Speaker
Two guys from that 2010 squad are still here, Tommy Smith and Chris Wood. They qualified easily through Oceania. They were in a group alongside Tahiti, Vanuatu, and Samoa, went 3-0 with a plus 18 goal differential, then got to the final round, which is a semifinal final. They pasted Fiji 7-0 and then huffed and puffed and beat New Caledonia 3-0 in a match that was tied at the hour mark. And then they just kind of wore down the New Caledonians.
00:56:09
Speaker
Their friendly results have been interesting since they qualified for the World Cup. They qualified for the World Cup very early on in this process, which I think is very interesting, right? They were one of the initial teams to qualify for the World Cup That meant that they've had a lot of friendlies. They have a friendly win over Ivory Coast in their bag. They've played Australia close. They drew against Norway, lost to Colombia and Ecuador.
00:56:32
Speaker
They smoked Chile in New Zealand in March, which probably doesn't count for a whole lot because I don't think Chile were particularly interested in being in New Zealand in March. But that's a whole different story. Darren Baisley omit is the manager here.
00:56:44
Speaker
Yeah, he's an interesting case. He's not really a traditional background for for managing. um He was a youth coach, and then he was an assistant for a lot of his career. He was a U23 coach. And right when he had been kind of doing good job, he got promoted to technical director, which was like overseeing the whole New Zealand industry.
00:57:03
Speaker
philosophy and sporting side of it. And then he became the head coach in 2023. So really interesting pivot here. I think one of the only other guys you kind of have seen that with in this tournament is Ralph Ragnick, who is over at Austria.
00:57:17
Speaker
And listen, it tells you these guys are very, very closely linked to the Federation's goals. They really care about player development. They really care about pathways. They really care about cohesion and system.
00:57:29
Speaker
That's a good thing for this team. Like New Zealand, as we talk about their level is again, similar to Australia, a little bit worse is in the the British diaspora of can use diaspora with British. I don't know quite know about that, but in the, in the, in that world ah of style and they are getting pipelines to the championship to MLS and for New Zealand, that is a good thing. You're trying to look, look, listen, you talk about Al Ali being a decent club. Great. But,
00:58:01
Speaker
we We can't sit here and say the the New Zealand league, like Wellington Phoenix is plus league. It's it's gotta be a, it it just can't be, it isn't. So these guys are really, really trying to work on this development pathway to get these guys more technical than they were. Like a really interesting quote from Chris Wood is like, listen, in 2010, we were a bunch of like meat walls, like running around, like didn't really know what we were doing. just trying to run through walls, like kind of thing. I, And now he's like, we're a lot more technical now.
00:58:32
Speaker
And I watched New Zealand. I'm like, i don't know about that. But the level is like, the again, the average championship type player, New Zealand type player to what it was 16 years ago is night and day. So this is, again, a very again ah a success of the modern footballing global ecosystem. A guy like Bazley is behind a lot of that. He has really gotten a lot of cohesion. Talk about defense by organization, style. They are very, very well drilled. And i the the other point is that because they've known this for a long time, these friendlies have been boon for them.
00:59:11
Speaker
They're prepared for this level about as well as you could have. Is that all going to work for the players? Again, we're not papering over, but... The talent here is the fourth in the group, and it's not really close.
00:59:22
Speaker
But the style and cohesion might be really, really high. How does that equation work out? i think there's two really interesting things here. So you talked about the the player development pathway, right? And that's really improved for New Zealand. They've gone away from the Auckland City method of things, which is part-timers going to the Club World Cup every year, right?
00:59:44
Speaker
And now there are two New Zealand clubs in the Australian League, the A-League, right? Wellington Phoenix and Auckland FC, which again, it's not... top league in the world, but it's a pathway for these players to get in. And then you've got the professionalization, right, of the OFC Professional League, which there's an Auckland FC offshoot that is different than the Auckland FC that's playing in the A-League, but it's still kind of under of the same club that's playing in that league. That has really helped and that should hopefully help the general level of play in Oceania.
01:00:10
Speaker
And you have to say it, New Zealand are absolutely beneficiaries of World Cup expansion because unlike their Australian brethren who broke away from Oceania to have a better chance of making the World Cup,
01:00:22
Speaker
They stayed. And in past cycles, that meant they would beat up on a bunch of oceanic islands and then go into a home and away playoff against somebody and try and win it. And more often than not, they lost that. They won it in 2010, but then in both 2014 against Mexico and 2018 against Peru,
01:00:40
Speaker
and And then in 2022 also went to the playoff and lost, right? This path has now gone from you have to go into a playoff and win is you simply have to just still be the best team in Oceania to make the World Cup. And they were able to do that far and away.
01:00:54
Speaker
That gave us the great New Caledonia scenes at the Intercontinental Playoff. But it gave us a direct spot, gave New Zealand a direct spot at the World Cup and completely changes the entire calculus really for this federation.
01:01:07
Speaker
Yeah, that's a great point. like They almost were handed a spot in the World Cup just because of where they are. And the calculus that you're talking about is that they've basically been preparing for this for for four years. And so that's why the pipeline has been really well, the professionalization, getting in Australia, like getting these guys in bigger spots, and playing decent to high-level international opposition as much as possible.
01:01:31
Speaker
So look, this team is... very cultured in that sense that they know what to expect at the international level they are no nonsense they will not beat themselves they play a four two three one it's pretty standard and old school and they just try to not beat themselves defend but again not super not a super deep block like they want to try to contest the midfield and everything about attacking is making as simple as possible Get the ball, cross. Play for set pieces, cross. It is like the most international friendly style you can have. Again, you think about like England, Scotland, Ireland, Australia, like they're in that vein. And then in in the play, in the field of play, they want to...
01:02:15
Speaker
make it as least dangerous as possible by just kind of keeping the ball and not dangerous areas that to me, like they really want to play championship soccer, which is like very hard to describe. It's like kind of route one on both sides and very physical and less space. And you just try to compress space to make as little as possible happen.
01:02:35
Speaker
They've got some of the bodies to pull that off. I think as we talk about the players, the back line is going to be the biggest hard part, but there's plenty of runners elsewhere to make it work. This is a style, I think, Amit, that is very conditioned by the fact that their best player, far and away their best player, is a talismanic, big hold-up number nine in Chris Wood.
01:02:58
Speaker
New Zealand would probably play this style regardless of his presence, but it helps them be able to really lean into it. Yeah, he missed those friendlies where they pasted Chile, and Chile got a red card in that game. They ah did not want to be there. um But they were he wasn't playing, and they still were just yamming crosses, spamming crosses into the box as much as possible. That's just kind of what they play. But Wood is...
01:03:22
Speaker
the place to start with this team. He's at Nottingham Forest. He's, you know, 34 now. He's kind of hurt this year. He says he's fully fit though. Two years ago, he was a, one of the best strikers in the premier league and part of Nottingham Forest. Great surprise story. He's a really good finisher, really strong and a super smart player in the box.
01:03:43
Speaker
Listen, i I don't think he's going to have a lot of space because center backs are going to be on him, but it doesn't matter. Like good luck out jumping Chris Wood, you know, 20, 30 times in a game when he only needs one, like that is the math there. So it's a, it's a, it's a throwback style. Like it's a target number nine and he is ah really, really good at it. And I think it's awesome for him. um And listen, their second backup guy, Costa Barbaru says he's fine, but he can play the style too. So they can get him on as a second striker. If, if one needs a spell, they can still kind of do that. That is the identity of this team.
01:04:18
Speaker
And Wood is deceptively mobile, right? Like, look, he's not going to win any places, but here he moves. Yeah, he's a good mover. And I think Barbarousis is a good second striker option as well. Like, yes, he could replace Wood like for like directly. But if New Zealand find themselves down in a game, they're not going to yank off Chris Wood probably, right? So you bring on Barbarousis and you maybe have those guys try to play two man for for the last 20, 30 minutes the game if you need it.
01:04:44
Speaker
In the midfield, Amit, as you said, there's a lot of runners that are going to look to contribute to this style. Yeah, starting with the front line, it's like Ben Old, Eli Just, Callum McCowit, Matt Garbutt, Sarpreet Singh. None of these guys, i think, are plus attacking players, but they are all good athletes, and they are...
01:05:07
Speaker
getting better on the ball you talk about chris wood saying like these guys are so technical i think like they were they these would have just been athletes 10 years ago and now they can kind of do things on the ball running in transition and new zealand ah have a lot of reps like having to break down tough defenses so these guys are are kind of a little bit more cultured look like you can't say that these guys are even better than the Iranian or Egyptian, definitely not the Belgium attackers, but they're just meant to kind of play the system really hard. I think Eli just is the player to watch here. He kind of is the left winger that things are going to run through the most. um And they're trying to just, you know, get the ball wide, win the ball, play the ball wide and cross very direct, not trying to do too much. It's made the assignment a lot easier.
01:05:59
Speaker
Marco Stamanech is one of the double pivot in the holding midfielder, right? He's at Swansea's kind of a championship level holding midfielder. He really kind of leans into the hole there, you know, ah a championship playoff team, right? Like that is kind of the level here for New Zealand.
01:06:12
Speaker
He's honestly maybe their most important non-wood player. They really would would hurt to lose him. He's... Again, he's championship level, but like he's very good for New Zealand. he He's like very good on the ball for a defensive holding midfielder. So they kind of need him to start the attack and also cover a lot of ground. And behind him, there's a lot of different options. I don't know what we'll see. There's Joe Bell at Viking.
01:06:36
Speaker
Ryan Thomas in Wellington and Alex Ruefer at Pex Zola in the Netherlands. Ruefer is intriguing in the Netherlands, but I think Bell is the better player. um He is a solid two-way player. And when they have Bell and Stan Minich on the field, I think they're going to try to not get overrun in the midfield. Listen, it's it's a tough ask, but...
01:06:59
Speaker
You look at Egypt and Iran and even Belgium's holders, like I don't think they're going to be scared off the pitch there. Obviously, trying to stop some of the front attackers is good, but midfield for midfield, these guys can hang a little bit. I think that is going to be a lot of pressure on these two plus the front runners to protect the back line as much as possible.
01:07:20
Speaker
Because the back line is probably missing top level pace, right? Like this is a back line that is going to need to be collectively organized because the second they're a step out, it's going to be tough.
01:07:32
Speaker
Yeah. Specifically at center back, Tyler Binden at Nottingham Forest doesn't really play at Forest. He's just, he's there. He's like their fifth or sixth guy. Finn Sermon is 22 at Portland Timbers. And like, he's young, exciting. He's not fast. He's, he's a slow center back in MLS. Think of your, your,
01:07:49
Speaker
you know replacement level, MLS center back, a league that has trouble getting good defenders at the level. um Again, he's fine. And him being a 22, making the squad was a big, big deal for him. And it was a big win for, I think, New Zealand's development as a whole.
01:08:04
Speaker
Bill Twiloma was left off. And he's a guy that had MLS experience in the Timbers. He's in his 30s now. That was a bit of a surprise. But, you know, Bazley said, like, I just really feel strongly about it.
01:08:16
Speaker
Then Michael Boxall is a guy that has performed well for New Zealand before in the past. You remember him. He was kind of heading them through against New Caledonia. He could start here. Maybe he's more experienced than Sermon. Look, he's 37 and really slow. Tommy Smith is 36. He's definitely not here to play.
New Zealand's World Cup Potential and Group Dynamics
01:08:34
Speaker
Baisley kind of said, I brought him in for the vibes. He was here in 2010. I think he's really going to help the squad, you know, just know what to expect.
01:08:41
Speaker
But like that is a not a plus center back group. Quickly on Smith, he's in the National League South in England, right? Like he's in the sixth tier of English football. So yeah, like, look, when you have a 26 man roster, you're probably not counting on all 26 guys to play. And you can take one of those spots and say, i want a guy who's been to the World Cup and who can talk to the rest of these guys about what it's like to be at the World Cup. But yeah, if if Tommy Smith is playing at this World Cup for New Zealand, it's going to be an issue.
01:09:08
Speaker
Yeah, it's probably between Binden Sermon and Boxall. and Let's see, Binden will be on the field. Left back is Liberato Carace at Wrexham. He is probably the best defender here. Look, he's a championship left back. They will take that. He can do a little bit of everything. i don't think he's a plus player in the grand scheme of things, but I think they're if they're going to need someone to kind of help...
01:09:31
Speaker
overload a wing, you know run a little bit, that can be him. Right back is Tim Payne and Wellington Phoenix. The backup fullbacks there are also nothing to write home about. Callan Elliott, Francis DeVries, not expecting a lot of the there.
01:09:42
Speaker
Not a great depth on the back line, not plus players on the back line. But you know you look at the Iranian back line, all those guys in the Iranian league, like... Can New Zealand say, look, we've come a long way. We're better than you expect.
01:09:55
Speaker
i don't think anyone can tell you outside of looking at the friendly results and tape like that, you know exactly how they're going to play at the level. So let's see. In goal, Max Krokom at Millwall, Alex Paulson's at Gdansk. I think Krokom has a starting job. He is an average championship goalkeeper. He's nothing special. I don't think he's a plus goalkeeper. But but again, like you're trying to minimize the the action here on the team.
01:10:21
Speaker
I have trouble with New Zealand on the whole as being good. i don't think they are good, but I think this group is gettable. And I think they are better than maybe your worst fourth pot teams here.
01:10:35
Speaker
Like they are also kind of an unknown in that they have really been gifted this cycle to prepare for this. And I think they're very, very dangerous um as a pot four team to get out of a group. Listen, if they were in a knockout round, like they would never be favored, but they're like a classic like long shot underdog. You know what you're going to get from them in that sense.
01:10:56
Speaker
There's just enough here that they could surprise Iran or Egypt and play a tough game. Well, and that's the thing. They're kind of the perfect combination of the level being where it needs to be and the group providing the opportunity that it needs to provide that you can talk yourself into New Zealand making some noise here. And and maybe that's not getting out, but maybe that's snatching a point somewhere or that's even winning a game, right? Like basically made it pretty clear. That's kind of the goal here.
01:11:24
Speaker
Yeah, expectations for the team He said that. like We'd like to win a game. We'd like to get out of the group. And listen, everyone is saying that, but I think they are really, really like serious about trying to start trying to do that. So you you circle those two fixtures around in Egypt on your calendar and see what see what you can do. I think they're goingnna they're going to press for it. They're not going to just like be a soft rollover fourth team. They're going to go down swinging, which is fun. this is This group has given us, I think, all and all that opportunity. It extends all the way.
01:11:54
Speaker
Opening game for New Zealand is against Iran, which I think is really interesting because, again, like we've alluded to a lot on this podcast, we don't really know what we're going to get from Iran in that game. And so New Zealand can absolutely pounce on that.
01:12:05
Speaker
Yeah. And and listen, the other thing here, well, we talk about not being sold in the defense, the midfields, all the level. Chris Woods is going to be the best player on the field in that Iran game. He he just is. And like that could that could win you a game like i think there's just enough there. He needs to be firing for sure. But that's intriguing to start with. Then Egypt in the second game in Vancouver and Belgium in the third game for New Zealand. You've painted an interesting case. I'm intrigued to see here what what New Zealand are going to do in this group. All right. What's your one game to watch from this group a bit?
01:12:39
Speaker
it's so It's a World Cup after dark group here. Yeah, you could pick any of them. like Iran, New Zealand to start or is fascinating, but I think it's Belgium, Egypt. I think Egypt is is the pot three team. Both of us feel pretty confident as the second best team here. That's because of their star players.
01:12:56
Speaker
And look, we really want to know where these teams are at. I think both of these teams have high variance. Could be noise in the knockout round. I don't think either of them can afford to take that game lightly.
01:13:09
Speaker
Egypt even perhaps could be a surprise, surprise team if they win this game. So let's see the level Belgium's defense is at. Let's see the level Egypt's, you know, whole identity is at. That's a really, really important game for the whole tournament, I think.
01:13:24
Speaker
Yeah, I think I second you on that. And also just with the opportunity that we started this show talking about for the group winner here, who wins that Belgium-Egypt game is the team that's going to be in the pole position to win that group. And so that's the team that could be best positioned to to make up that opportunity and take it. It's it's certainly a can't-miss game here. All right, run through the numbers to close this out.
01:13:44
Speaker
Yeah, Belgium favored at minus 3,500. Not as as heavy ah to advance. Not as heavy as all the other favorites here, but you know pretty comfortable. You're thinking in the 90-95% range.
01:13:57
Speaker
Egypt's at minus 340. I mean, a lot of second best teams are a lot higher, but the fact that the numbers kind of say they're more favored than Iran at minus 200, think backs up what we've been saying about these teams. Iran is still favored to get through at minus 200. They could get through in second. They could get through in third. New Zealand's at plus 150. And I think that is some of the best value we've seen on a fourth place team. The best has been Australia, who is at minus 110, which is a fake number because all four teams were over 50% in that position.
01:14:28
Speaker
America group, but I think New Zealand actually has a great chance here. um well We'll see how that pans out. I think Iran and New Zealand, you could talk yourself in. The issue is even if New Zealand is better, advancing is is a tough out here in this kind of group.
01:14:43
Speaker
This could be a group where the third place team doesn't. You're trying to think about in a macro perspective, what are the four groups where that could happen? I think groups where there are three good teams and what bad team is hard three three teams not to go through in a group like this, where there's opportunity elsewhere that actually could backfire against four teams going through. I don't know that. That's just kind of my, it's a possibility. Yeah. Well, and so like the second, these teams start drawing between each other, things get complicated because then the point situation gets bad.
01:15:15
Speaker
And that will also kind of come down to what do Belgium do as far as the attack is concerned. right Because if Belgium start putting goals past these teams, then that's going to make the calculus different as well, again, for that third place question. But look, the math is simple. One of Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand has to go through because somebody is going to finish second and that's a guaranteed spot. There could be a spot for for two of them to go through as well.
01:15:38
Speaker
So yeah, the numbers think all the teams are relatively close. I think between those three is about as close as you find that a group. So that's interesting. Backs up kind of what we're talking about. It's fascinating in terms of ah larger you know punts in the tournament. Belgium to reach that quarterfinal that we've talked about is plus 150. That is not great value, I think.
01:15:58
Speaker
just It's kind of telling you they're expected to do that. what you really If you want the the value, you could get Belgium to exit exactly in the quarterfinal. Imagine they play Spain. Imagine Spain beats them. Again, we don't know. That's plus 300. That might be
Conclusion and Additional Content Promotion
01:16:13
Speaker
something there. We'll see. Belgium also... could lose in the round of 16 to the United States. If you listen to this podcast, you listen to that podcast, you think the United States has the chance, you could get Beldum to exit in the round of 16 at plus 225. Listen, I might not touch either of those. I think Belgium is kind of tough to vo get good value on. The value now, though, might be on Egypt. I think both of us are definitely a little bit bullish on them. You could look at their you know futures to make the round of 16 at plus 225. It's even better than that if if you want to think they can do better and go to a quarterfinal. um I think, obviously, minus 340 to advance isn't good money, so you have to look past that. But listen, they could advance at first, have a winnable game. Even that game, think about could it be the second-place team from... from
01:16:57
Speaker
the American group, like what that could be. So could be Turkey, Egypt, Turkey could be fine. Like plus two 25 is probably better odds and they're one off in a game against Turkey. So I think there's some value in Egypt for sure. um I'm really intrigued about Belgium and Egypt. I think it's two of the teams that have, have a lot of questions in a good way. And I think that, like we said earlier, that's going to really determine how the rest of this group goes and could set the path towards who the World Cup surprise team is going to be or if there's a World Cup surprise team, right? All right. That is the last of our World Cup group previews. We've done all 12 groups. If you're just joining us now, there's 11 other group previews that you can check out ahead of the World Cup kicking off. You can go to patreon.com slash WCAD and right there on the homepage front and center, our World Cup preview hub with links to all 12 of the shows on Spotify.
01:17:48
Speaker
You can also obviously just find the shows on Spotify or Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts in this day and age. There's plenty, plenty more coming from Amit and I. We've got a preview podcast that will drop right before the World Cup and then there will be tons and tons of World Cup content. It's the best time of the four-year cycle here on the World Cup After Dark Podcast and we can not.
01:18:09
Speaker
wait. We hope that you can't wait either. And we hope to have your company throughout most of this tournament as well. We're looking forward to it. We know that you are as well. So all that's left for me to say is thanks for listening and talk soon.