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Week 15 Packers go to a Mile High
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Aloha and welcome to another episode of OPE! On this episode we break down the week 15 game against the Denver Broncos. We talk the injury reports, key matchups and do some over unders!
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Transcript
Intro
Intro and Game Overview
00:00:21
Speaker
Aloha and welcome back to another episode of the Ohana Packers Edition podcast where Iowa Joe and I are previewing the NFC North leading Packers game as they head to mile high to face the Broncos, the number one seed ironically in the
Broncos' Winning Streak and Comparisons
00:00:34
Speaker
AFC.
00:00:37
Speaker
I joked that in spirit, we are facing the Bears three weeks in a row where it's, it's it's you know, even though the Broncos are in the AFC, obviously, and all that kind of stuff, it's another team where they're on an inexplicable 10-game winning streak. You know, the the Bears had won 9 out of 10 when they faced the Packers. The Broncos have won 10 in a row.
00:00:59
Speaker
And you look in it, and the Broncos record is it's kind of similar to the the the Bears where – There's a couple, like I said, inexplicable wins, i.e. their comeback against the the Giants, where that game looked dead to rights until Jackson Dart got concussed late in that game. And then there was... the Philly game where they beat the Eagles.
00:01:27
Speaker
yeah are the eagle Yeah, they beat the Eagles in a game where like, i it I forgot those games were back to back to back for Denver. So they beat the Eagles on a game where the Eagles like turn the ball over
Analyzing Broncos' Close Contests
00:01:39
Speaker
late. Denver goes up late. And that was that did A.J. Brown quit on the route? I think he did play. Then they needed a literal last second field goal to beat the Jets. Yes, those New York Jets. And then they needed to concuss Jackson Dart to beat the Giants. And so that was three games, the the second, third and fourth win in this win streak.
00:02:01
Speaker
And then they barely beat the Texans. And the the they they beat the Texans. raiders and chiefs by a combined nine points so and each of those games was one by three and then they needed overtime to beat the the commanders who honestly had that game on a walk-off two-point conversion that just got you know that luckily Denver was able to blow up.
00:02:31
Speaker
And then they played the Raiders again, who had one of the funniest in the history of sports backdoor covers where they're kicking a field goal as the time expired to put it to a seven point key. It was of the most hilarious situations I've ever seen. Like that was like a college football. We're not losing by the spread like moment kind of
Broncos' True Capabilities Debate
00:02:54
Speaker
thing. and that That's when you put the tinfoil hat on because, you know, they they had to do it for Vegas.
00:03:01
Speaker
And it was in Vegas. So even better. but You know, I bring all these things up to say that, yes, you know, just like I said, going into the Bears game last week, you are what your record says you are at the time you play these teams.
00:03:17
Speaker
but there's a very similar feel to this the Bears game where it's like, are they really that good?
Defensive Comparisons: Broncos vs Bears
00:03:22
Speaker
This Broncos defense is much more legit than anything the Bears brought to the table. I think it's a better top-down unit than just the Bears. like Their run game is the number one run game in the league. And even that, I think, is a little artificially inflated by certain things. Whereas the Broncos' defense is a legitimate unit. I do think that there are some areas the Packers can take advantage of them.
Packers' Strategy and Challenges
00:03:45
Speaker
But this one, you combine the fact that this defense is really good. The Packers' O-line has found its footing.
00:03:53
Speaker
but needs to still prove itself. And the game is in mile high, like those three factors. And that's where this game, it's either going to be a proving grounds for the Packers, or it could be, I don't think it'll be as bad as that 2015 game where Rogers had like 65 passing yards or whatever the shit it was, because I don't think Jordan is going to do the same dumb shit that Aaron has done. But,
00:04:20
Speaker
At the same time, it has the feeling of a game like that where it's like you can see it teeter on a thin line. But before we I know I've delved into a lot of what's at stake or what's on the table, but we'll go through our usual thing. But Joe, how are you feeling about this week as the Packers come off of, you know, the the big three game sweep of the NFC North and heading into an uncommon opponent, but a very important game nonetheless?
00:04:46
Speaker
I had a lot of the same feelings that this really does feel like a Bears matchup because on top of the points that you just had that, you know, throw in that they have a second year quarterback that they have one big name receiver and then a bunch of like not great. Not not that they're not great, but, you know, like lower no named receivers.
00:05:13
Speaker
But then they've got a great running game and then their defense. That's the big difference between the Bears and the Broncos is like you said, the Broncos seem to have a full complement of defensive players, whereas the Bears just managed to have more takeaways.
00:05:35
Speaker
But it in the overall scheme of things, they aren't a great defensive team. So. Yeah, I mean, it it'll be interesting. I still harbor bad feelings against the Broncos over Super
John Elway's Legacy and Comparisons
00:05:48
Speaker
Bowl XXXII. So john wa John Elway, I was going to say John Wayne, John Elway can rot in hell for all I care. that Did you see something that, and i I get it, they were teammates or anything, but said that Mark Schlavereth or whatever his name is said that John wit Elway was like the best quarterback ever. And it's like, no. I think I think I can come up with better quarterbacks. The guy who was drafted after him in the same class was a better quarterback. Like, you know, Elway gets this mythos because he was the quote unquote comeback king and all that stuff.
00:06:29
Speaker
Like, and but and he and he wasn't the prototypical pocket passer because he could get out and move. He wasn't the greatest at it, but he could get out and move a little bit better than the prototypical pocket passer. Yeah, is, you know, but,
00:06:45
Speaker
Marino was the better quarterback of the guys that came out of his own draft class. Like, you know, everyone, you know, I'd argue Jim Kelly was even better than friggin' Elway. Yeah.
00:06:55
Speaker
Like, Elway just has the, like, the mythos of, like, he's the comeback king and stuff like that. And and he went out on a high note by going back-to-back Super Bowls. and yeah But let's not act like he really was the driving force behind those. Those were on the back of ter Terrell Davis.
00:07:13
Speaker
If there is. Yeah, but honestly, if there's no Terrell Davis in Denver, those Super Bowls don't happen like that's just a plain and simple. Well, yeah, they might have never made it to him but if you're talking game on, I don't think the Falcons had a shot at all during that Super Bowl. Oh no, the Falcons making the Super Bowl is one of those like, oh, like Cinderella story, but.
00:07:38
Speaker
Although the highlight was Tim Dwight's touch, kick return touchdown. that's right But on I have a soft spot. Even though he's just a Hawkeye, i have a soft spot for Tim Dwight no matter what. I know he was 5'0", 100", nothing, and he wasn't much of a – I mean, he was a good receiver. He just – he couldn't be an NFL receiver because of his size. But my first ever Hawkeye game was in 98.
Tim Dwight Anecdotes and Comparisons
00:08:01
Speaker
Yeah.
00:08:03
Speaker
eight and it was against indiana and they won like 63 to nothing and tim dwight threw for a touchdown returned to punt for a touchdown and re and caught a touchdown And I'll remember it to the because it was just all over the place. and And that was the year that they had like Tavian bangs at running back. and And yeah, so I always have a soft spot for Tim Dwight just because that was the first ever game I ever went to in Kinnick Stadium.
00:08:34
Speaker
Got to retroactively reward him, award him the Heisman. like I'm telling you, if you go on, and I know this, you're a Michigan fan, so it doesn't really affect you too much to watch it since since it was Iowa and Indiana. Go back. It's on, they have like the full game highlights on YouTube for that exact game.
00:08:56
Speaker
And just the way that he played was amazing. Well, I think if you look at like Michigan's 97 national championship team, the the Iowa game from that season,
00:09:10
Speaker
The two scores are Tim Dwight. Like one is a punt return and one is a reception or something like that. And there's there's newspaper clippings that are like, why are you letting him affect the game? And that's why I said that I know I'm going off on a tangent here, but Caden Wegent reminds me a shit ton of Tim Dwight.
00:09:31
Speaker
So if some team can get him, And even if it's like an undrafted thing, I would sign him in a heartbeat just to be that return specialist. Yep.
00:09:42
Speaker
yeah So we'll see. Okay. My tangent's over.
00:09:47
Speaker
But yeah, as for the game, i do see what you're talking
Broncos' Record Questioned
00:09:50
Speaker
about. Cause I had the same thoughts about the Broncos being similar to the bears. Maybe they're a lot better on it than what,
00:10:01
Speaker
how How do we put it against the Bears? They were... What their schedule is, they're better than... They're not as good as what their schedule says they are. Yeah. And and I could see... But they do have a better defense than the Bears, so you can't... And going into Denver is always rough, so you can't say Yeah.
00:10:22
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, if this game was in Lambeau, I'd feel differently about it. But it's not. And you know Green Bay, the one good thing is that this is not a trap game. you know I've seen some people say, like, is this a trap game? I'm like, it can't be a trap game when the other team's the number one seed in its conference kind of thing. So what's it called?
00:10:43
Speaker
i I'm not worried about that.
Packers' Injury Updates and Impact
00:10:46
Speaker
But, you know, we'll just go through it like we usually do. We like to think that in week 15, we're getting into a rhythm here.
00:10:54
Speaker
But... This is practice report for the Packers. So the big news today, full participation in terms of roster headcount, except for Josh Jacobs, who was in the building. They practiced in Hudson. Jacobs didn't participate, but was riding the bike on the side. So he was there.
00:11:12
Speaker
Honestly, I'm not surprised given that this is his first normal week of rest but since the, the in where He banged up his knee against the Giants. So, you know, that was back in week 11.
00:11:26
Speaker
eleven i can do math. He doesn't see the video. Kiwano is actually counting on his fingers how far back that was. Week 11, he bangs the knee on the MetLife turf. Week 12, he sits out against the Vikings. So he has, you know, 14 or not 14. He has 10 days between the the Giants game and the the Thanksgiving Day. And then he takes another 10 days off between that game and the Bears game because the Lions game was on Thanksgiving.
00:11:55
Speaker
And so I'm not surprised that they're going to give him some time off because this is like the first time he doesn't have extended rest between the games and stuff. So no real surprise there. Limited participants.
00:12:08
Speaker
It's again a long list. We'll start with just the the three guys who are still on designated to return. Brenton Cox, Marshawn Lloyd, Colin Oliver, all limited participants.
00:12:18
Speaker
As far as the guys on the roster, Javon Bullard with the ankle, Kingsley Angbari with the knee, Matthew Golden with the wrist. Excuse me. Jaden Reed with the shoulder. Jordan Riley with the knee.
00:12:32
Speaker
Welcome to Green Bay, Jordan Riley. Zach Tom still listed with the back. Lucas Van Ness, welcome back to you to practice with the foot. Christian Welch working his way through concussion protocol. So he'll be limited all week, I assume. Dontavian Wicks with the ankle and Savion with the foot. So everyone participates. And Jordan Love was a full participant with the shoulder.
00:12:54
Speaker
I'm surprised with the full participant, they're still listing him on. i think i think that just goes back to our whole, you know, they're just overreporting because of what's happened around the league this season.
00:13:09
Speaker
awesome Also, I don't know if you saw it. I i did go back. Terrence Parsons noted that he he grabbed Jordan's shoulder like to celebrate after the game. And Jordan's like, bro, my shoulder still hurts and terrence was like oh dang so if something happens in this game we know who to blame yeah exactly so luckily jordan seems to be on the man and then i was gonna say two key names who are not listed on this report are linebackers quay walker and edge cooper
00:13:45
Speaker
So Quay missed a couple games with the Stinger. Edge left the Detroit game with the Stinger. And especially with Edge, because it looked like he dinged up that shoulder again at one point during the Bears game. I think it was either in the late third or early fourth quarter. But good to see that neither of them are being listed. and Well, we're lucky Edge doesn't have a concussion.
00:14:08
Speaker
Yeah, just some chipped paint off his helmet. so But yeah, so that's the list for the Packers. Again, you know, the ones to really watch there, obviously, if any of the three guys designated to return come back.
00:14:25
Speaker
Obviously, Josh needs to be monitored, but I do think that he'll be back. You know, as long as he's back for practice on Thursday and or Friday, he's going to play come Sunday. The two to watch in terms of if they can get upgraded are Golden and Wicks because they're the ones that, you know, they had no injury or...
00:14:45
Speaker
Wicks had no pregame designation, and he only plays six snaps, and LaFleur basically admitted like, yeah, the ankle was not as good as we hoped it would be.
00:14:56
Speaker
Who knows how much of that is them just being extra precautious because you got Reed back, you had you know you had enough productive bodies kind of thing. or if it is like a lucas thing where it's not necessarily a setback but it's just like oh he didn't feel as great as he thought he did kind of thing and then the golden one you know some people are and the golden one some people are are still bellyaching over it but i think it just shows like lefleur is starting to type down his rotations and as they get back more they're more veteran guys they're like matthew
00:15:32
Speaker
We've seen some flashes, but we've also seen a bunch of rookie moments. And it's like, we still want to involve you. We want to get you in there and stuff. But when you're in there, you you can't be making mental mistakes kind of thing and stuff. The interception's not on him.
00:15:45
Speaker
That's on Jordan. I'm not saying he had any mess-ups this week. But there have been moments this season where you're kind of watching the film and you're like, He shouldn't be there. Like the long catch.
00:15:56
Speaker
Part of the part of him not knowing what Jordan's checking in and out of quite yet. Right. Yeah, exactly. There's a lot of reasons. And I do. I'm not and I'm not chucking it up to like he's dumb. He can't learn the playbook. We've heard how difficult this playbook is to pick up. The the play calls are really long. They're often sending in two plays. So you're getting two like really long play names and like each word in it means a different thing for the play.
00:16:24
Speaker
And then it's like, oh, like wait, what? like And you know one word you think me and he thinks he's running a post and it's a corner or something like that. so I'm not concerned.
00:16:36
Speaker
These are the kind of things where we saw this Jordan's first year where it's like, does Jordan look as bad as he is? And LeFleur basically flat out said, like, you know, Jordan has things to improve on, but people aren't helping him.
00:16:48
Speaker
And like, he you know, as kindly as he said, like, we're lacking in, you know, people being where they're supposed to be. So, Same thing with golden also, you know, what do you use when you catch a ball? Right, right. Yeah. And then there's the wrist on top of it. So, well, yeah, but i you catch the ball with your hands and if your wrist isn't in full move mobility,
00:17:13
Speaker
how do you grip things yeah i so i i think that's more it than anything else yeah yeah that's why i do laugh like i i kind of laughed about it before the detroit game that everyone's like he looks good warming up but i'm like Route running isn't going to show you how the wrist is feeling. Right. was Was he doing cartwheels? That would tell you a little bit more than anything. If he goes from a double cartwheel into a backflip, then I'll be impressed. But until then, like... and And then the big... Like, the other big one, like I said, is Lucas getting back on the field. We'll see.
00:17:50
Speaker
We'll see if they push to see if they can get him in Denver. The sooner they can get him back, the better. But... I do wonder if they'll play it extra cautious and try to ramp him up for that Chicago game because I think they really need his his edge setting and pass rush ability, especially from the interior against Chicago. So I think they'll play it really tentatively this week, but it would be really great to have him against Denver. But that said, like I do think the aim is to get him back for that Chicago game.
00:18:21
Speaker
It's all possible. I think it's... you know You know, we're not doctors by any means. We're not insiders either. We're we're going off a lot of conjecture. and yeah Right. But what I was going to say is we' we've guessed that it possibly is like plantar fasciitis for him.
00:18:39
Speaker
And, you know, as we've said before, as people who have dealt with shit like that, you know, getting old sucks and you feel those pains and that, and, you know, there's days that it can feel good and there's days that it can feel bad. And, you know, maybe he's having a little bit more bad days than good. And there's nothing they can really do for that except rest.
00:19:07
Speaker
And, you know, I would hope Being in Denver is what's the hard thing about it because the altitude. And injuries tend to go weird in those situations because, you know, you're used to a certain altitude and then you go into a different one and now things are feeling a lot different than... Your blood flow is different and all that kind of stuff too. Yeah.
00:19:33
Speaker
so So, I mean, as much as I would like to see him play, I'm not interested in rushing him. I do kind of think that now that they've got brought in those two big bodies, that helps out the pass rush a little bit more because now they can eat up some doubles in that.
Packers' Offense Testing Against Broncos
00:19:53
Speaker
and allow the the other guys to get there the one that i'm kind of curious about is is brenton cox and if he's ready to come back that should give a an extra juice because he's similar he's let me put it this way he's not the same player as micah but he's similar where he uses more speed than anything and i think if you can get two speed guys opposite each other it's going to help out a little bit more because The downside about Rashawn is he's not quite speedy, he's more power.
00:20:28
Speaker
in And Lucas is kind of mixture both where he can be speed and power. But what you need is a... And that's why I said even Colin Oliver would be an interesting one to throw in there because if you can get two speed edge guys coming at him, it's a little bit more disruptive than just a couple of of pure strength edges. Yeah. Yeah.
00:20:53
Speaker
That's why I like, you know, people are getting all upset about like quick pass rush wins and all that kind of stuff. And I'm like, that's not all these guys games. Like Micah is by far and away leading this team in it because he is your guy. Like you, you, you just eloquently put it. He is your guy for that. So, you know, obviously I want all these guys to do more, but you know what? They they've been really effective with what they're doing.
00:21:17
Speaker
Yes. Everyone could always pull a little more water, but that, like I said, the thing similar to the Bears game, little different because, like we both mentioned, Denver's defense is legit, whereas the Bears is just inconceivably held together by cotton swabs and and scotch tape. but Well, like I said, weird because they have a ton of turnovers, but their production-wise, they're not great. So yeah it's weird.
00:21:50
Speaker
But... Yeah, this is going to be a game. Like I said, this game is going to test the Packers because... And honestly, i like that they have this test. Obviously, you know, I want them to win out and, you know, have a chance at the number one seed, lock up the North and all that kind of stuff, end up with the highest seed you can get. But this is a really important test for the Packers because, you know, they so they look like they were getting into an offensive groove and then you lose Tucker Craft in the Carolina game.
00:22:17
Speaker
You really scuffle around and, you know... you're you know it's like a like a Dudley do right sketch where you're like you're riding the you're riding the moose backwards and your pants are falling down kind of thing and then it looks like you regained your composure and your your skill over the next the following four weeks you know you beat New York you come back to beat New York and then you have the three game sweep of the the division games and now you're going to face what's probably the best de defense that's on your schedule that's guaranteed to be on your schedule all season and these are the kind of benchmark tests that i really like for any team that's you know posturing itself for postseason play
00:23:00
Speaker
Obviously, I want the Packers to win this game, but this is one where I think it's a really good test for you know all parties involved on the Packers, both from a player's perspective, a coaching
Key Defensive Matchups
00:23:10
Speaker
perspective. you know that There's a lot that can be gained from this one, but obviously, I want to see the Packers win this one because, you know like I said, for all the playoff seeding implications, and like you so said at the top, fuck the Broncos. But...
00:23:27
Speaker
Matchup-wise, you know, the the center, you know, for the Packers' offense against the Broncos, excuse me, defense, the centerpiece of this defense is what Pat Sertan II does in the secondary.
00:23:40
Speaker
I'm really curious to see if who he's going to match on. Do they put him on Watson? i think they will and probably should.
00:23:51
Speaker
And it'll be really interesting to see if Watson can get a couple on Sertan. But it it's one of those curious matchups because Sertan's thing is being ultra physical with wide receivers.
00:24:05
Speaker
And at the same time, he's a really good athlete, but he's not an alien athlete like Watson is. And so, you know, from that sense, you'd like to see Watson beat him deep or on a dig and stuff. And at the same time,
00:24:20
Speaker
Love can't get caught waiting for that to happen. you know what I mean? Like he has to still keep within the structure of all the plays. He can't be like, I'm going to give Christian every option because that's how you get into sack situations with this defense, especially because they can create quick pressure. Benito will scream off the edge and he'll be starting. I really expect that he'll be starting across from... Rashid Walker and Rashid's going have to play a really good game this week. There's no if, ands or buts. They're going to need his best game and Rashid's had hit kind of a slump late in the season and you know for the Packers playoff pursuit and for Rashid's own personal pursuit of free agency, he needs a bounce back and no better time for him to start one than against the Broncos.
00:25:11
Speaker
you know like i said sertan is like the centerpiece of this defense up front they have one of the most old reliable players in zach allen who has asserted himself as one of the best five techniques in the league john franklin myers i believe what's it called he has been around Denver for the past only two years but he was a he was a key piece on those Jets defenses in the early of French what's his name uh the Niners uh defensive coordinator why am I salah yeah Salah's yeah Salah's defenses and
00:25:54
Speaker
Just two really good five techniques for this defense. and But they're able to they like to blitz. They like to play a lot of man coverage. and the packers are gonna just have to beat that it's like i said it's really good that watson and reed are you know watson is healthy reed is getting himself in game shape and you know we saw them drop a lot of stuff for reed week but if there's any week to get wicks and golden healthy this is it because you need as many of your guys who can separate in man coverage
00:26:26
Speaker
I think the trick for the Packers is you have to attack downfield. You can't get caught trying to just throw screens and quick routes because the Broncos are really good at closing and tackling on those kind of things.
00:26:38
Speaker
One point of weakness is someone you're familiar with. Riley Moss is one of the most targeted, mainly because he's the other guy from Patrick Sertan II, but also because he has a propensity for getting called for DPI or illegal contact. So, like, Denver is...
00:26:55
Speaker
like first or second in wide receiver one coverage, top five to 10 in slot receiver coverage, but they're like bottom third against number two receivers, i.e. whoever Moss is covering. So that'll be an interesting thing to see how Denver approaches. Like i said, do they just isolate Sertan on Watson or do they kind of roll the dice and say like,
00:27:21
Speaker
you know We'll just give extra support and we're going to have Sertan just completely eliminate someone else from the play kind of thing.
00:27:28
Speaker
But that's also a key to, like I said earlier, we've got to see this run game happen because if this reshuffled Packers offensive line another week together can just continue to flex their muscle and create movement in the ground game, that's going to be their best option in terms of getting traction in this game because...
Packers' Strategies Against Broncos Defense
00:27:48
Speaker
I know Denver has good stats against the run, but they haven't been quite as stout the past few weeks against the run. They're not leaky by any any stretch of the imagination, but you know we've seen... like the keep wanting to call them the Redskins. We've seen the Commanders have some success a against them. I'm not going to put any sort of... hum any sort of what's it called?
00:28:19
Speaker
Congratulations on beating up on the Raiders. But I do just think that Green Bay could find some success on the ground if they're able to get their O-line rolling. But in terms of the offense, the Packers offense, Denver defense, what are you looking for, Joe?
00:28:33
Speaker
I was just kind of looking at this real quick. I think a lot of it does have to, for Riley, does have to do with the fact that nobody's throwing at Sertan. So that's the key there.
00:28:48
Speaker
oh But
00:28:51
Speaker
i think he pretty much covered it. it If Sertan is just going to trail Watson, then you're going to have to open it up to your other guys. You're not going to be able to force anything in there. Hit your shots when you can get them.
00:29:06
Speaker
it Think of the Packers versus Patriots when it was Jordy versus Darrell Rivas. Everybody was really afraid about that one because Darrell was having the – a career year whatever it was and Jordy tore him up well that's because they were able to get him open to make plays on that If you can do that with Watson, do it, but don't rely on that. Use a Reed. Use a Romeo. Use a Wicks if he's healthy. Use a Golden if he's healthy.
00:29:44
Speaker
Throw Bo Melton in there if you have to, you know, whatever you do. But this would be the perfect game for love to get into that. We're going to spread the ball around to everybody.
00:29:58
Speaker
And because, you know, Sertan is a legit corner. And,
00:30:07
Speaker
you know, I hate bashing a a Hawkeye alum, but he is getting beat up because he is constantly getting thrown at. And like I said, it's not because he's a bad player. He's actually a solid player if you look at things. It's just – When the quarterback is avoiding one whole side of the field because that's where the top corner is at and just keeps throwing at you, there's not much you can do. I mean,
00:30:34
Speaker
so i no team has ever really had two number one corners on the field at the same time.
00:30:45
Speaker
Even Legion of Boom guys, you can't say we're two number one corners on the same field at the same time. Not in the salary cap era at least. Yeah. Like, you just can't. you you The closest you can get is like, a like,
00:31:00
Speaker
but like in the packer sense it's like old charles im sitting yeah old it's an old trump on and a young sam or an old charles and a young tremon kind of thing and stuff like there's the the vet and the up-and-comer kind of thing and stuff but you don't really you just it's hard to have the resources for two of those kind of guys so i agree like and as tough sledding as the broncos defense is gonna put things on well i have one more point that i have for of for the Broncos defense for as good as they look they struggle with turnovers yeah I just been looking at that real quick just to see what it is and interception wise even their top two corners have no interceptions Moss and Sertan have no interceptions they only have seven interceptions total on the year and they only have
00:31:53
Speaker
eight forced fumbles, but they have a shit ton of pass defenses. So they're not able to turn that into interceptions. So as long as you're not doing anything stupid, i.e. the interception against the Bears, they're not going to be, they're not going to turn it. They're not going to create turnovers. So be smart with them.
00:32:15
Speaker
Yeah. And I think a big factor into that is like they lead the league fast. by a wide margin in sack production. They're at 55 and I think the next nearest team is like 11 back.
00:32:27
Speaker
And so I think a function of that is that when they get pressure, they're sacking your quarterback. They're not, they're not like, so so they're not pressuring you to turn over. look yeah The past defenses for all these guys, Moss has got 12. Sertan's got 11. Yeah. Fonga has 10. McMillan has seven. Jones has seven. Allen has six.
00:32:47
Speaker
Barron has four. Cooper is four. I mean, they have, what is that combined? Let me grab that real quick. They have,
00:32:58
Speaker
75 total pass defenses for a defense. So, I mean, i get what you're saying about the pass rush, but yeah these are still guys out there that are solid, you know, secondary. They're just struggling with creating the turnover on things.
00:33:13
Speaker
And I think that speaks to how much man coverage they play because, you know, they're, and they're, they're, what's it called? Sertan especially is is what's called a trail man coverage corner. So he's gonna,
00:33:25
Speaker
i don't want to say he lets the receiver go by, but he's going to, you know, get even with the receiver and he's going to play in his hip pocket so that like he's just sort of running the route with the receiver. And so he's his, you know, he's kind of in one of the like worst positions to get interceptions because basically he has to either time his turnaround properly or it has to bounce off someone else and like bounce to him kind of thing. So part of it, like you said,
00:33:53
Speaker
I think there's a lot of factors into it, but I think a big portion of it is the type of defense that they play where they are such a heavy man coverage team.
00:34:04
Speaker
But for the first time, the Packers have most of their man beaters. on the field and like i said the big factor is how many snaps can jayden reid play how many you know how healthy are don'tavian wicks and golden can you get them on for 30 40 50 the plays and This is a week where LeFleur has to... All those those routes he runs where there's a lot of hitches, throw those out. like Don't bother running those this week.
00:34:34
Speaker
Run all your movement routes, all your crossing routes, you know all that kind of stuff. Run all those plays, but throw all the other stuff out for just you know just for a week. You can be opponent-specific, especially against an uncommon opponent.
00:34:48
Speaker
the other point I was going to get to is in the sense of... Denver's defense is going to make it tough on Green Bay's offense, but LaFleur and the offense have to resist the urge to feel
Broncos' Offensive Struggles and Critiques
00:35:01
Speaker
pressured to score. Like, obviously, if you have your opportunities, you have to convert.
00:35:04
Speaker
But this is the kind of game where Denver's defense is really tough. Their offense is honestly a slog to watch, and it makes watching their games a chore because, you know, Sean – is Sean Payton gets this rap for being this offensive mind, and he does still create a really good scheme and all that kind of stuff. But his this offense is so clunky and hard to watch at times.
00:35:34
Speaker
And a lot of it, just like the Bears. And like I said, there's a lot of spiritual similarities between the Bears and the and the and this Broncos team. A lot of it is due to the fact that their quarterback situation is not ideal. And I know Broncos fans, Broncos believers will tell you otherwise, but Bo Nix...
00:35:54
Speaker
not that good of a pro quarterback. You know, he's athletic, he can move. the he he's i think he's more effective as a runner than he is as a passer. That's just my thinking. But I don't like how he reads defenses. It's a lot like Caleb where, you know,
00:36:13
Speaker
If the initial read that Payton tells him should be there isn't there, there are times where he's kind of like, I'm going to break the pocket. And, you know, one of the big things they keep talking about is, oh, he's he's not taking sacks. He doesn't take sacks.
00:36:27
Speaker
But unlike Caleb, who's going to run around and like chuck some amazing ball downfield. What's it called? Knicks leads the league or like almost leads the league in throwaways, like throwaway percentage. He's throwing the ball away on a sixth of all his passes, which When you say it by a sixth, it doesn't sound like that much. But when you think about, like, oh, there are 30, 40 pass plays in a game, and that means you're throwing, you're throwing what is that, like five to six of them away a game?
00:37:01
Speaker
That's a lot. so But just he is still completing of his Yeah. so it's It's one of those, like I said, and it's one of those where you're kind of like, how do they make it work and stuff, but it really is on this defense just sucking the life out of opponents and like allowing their offense to do the bare minimum to win these games. So the Packers just have to play, like you said, they have to be turnover averse on offense.
00:37:32
Speaker
But on defense, there should be an ability for the Packers' defense to take advantage of this Broncos' offense. Yeah, there's no doubt about that. I mean, for what the Broncos are sitting at right now with their what the games they've played,
00:37:52
Speaker
maybe the Giants game, the Texans game definitely –
Packers' Defensive Opportunities
00:37:58
Speaker
they've not faced anybody like micah this year and i hate to keep saying that because you know mike is not just the only guy on defense but he's the game changer on deep yeah he's the one that you have to scheme for because he's going to wreck wreck your your game plan and i was just looking at it real quick i i don't think there's any other guys are that i mean like i said outside of maybe will anderson with the texans and and uh burns bre brison
00:38:38
Speaker
and thibodeau for the giants i i don't think there's anybody that they've faced that's gonna dominate like he does so Don't fall into this
00:38:52
Speaker
soft zone coverage like we keep having to frigging talk about.
00:38:57
Speaker
Game plan it like the Bears. you know Show a little bit more blitz to it. Bring in some guys. don't don't let Stop the run. Basically what I'm saying, stop the run and make them try to throw.
00:39:12
Speaker
Yep. I agree with you. And, you know, move some of your pieces around. Let Rashawn, you know, especially if Lucas doesn't come back this week, let Rashawn rush as a three technique, you know, get, let him be the guy that Micah is rushing off the backside of on third and passing down situations.
00:39:30
Speaker
And weather-wise, it should be a decent game. I just was looking at it. It's 63 high and 39 for a low and no precipitation. Yeah, relatively clear-ish skies for this time of year and stuff. So, yeah, like...
00:39:47
Speaker
Like I said, you can't press if you're the Packers, but you do have to take – know people are going to say, great game plan, Mike, but it it really is going to be one of those end every drive in a kick kind of games because this offense struggles enough that you don't want to give them any freebies and defensively just – and defensively jes You know, turn this into a Bo Nix has to be this kind of game. I know that, you know, he has the highlights of it, like his touchdown run against the Raiders.
00:40:19
Speaker
That's the Raiders. Like, and when they have faced good defenses, I'm not even going to say the elite because like... The Texans game, and that was a game where Houston honestly blew that one at the end. But anytime they faced a tough defense, the Chargers, the Colts at the time of the year, the Eagles, this offense has absolutely struggled to put up points.
00:40:45
Speaker
So Green Bay's defense, just keep doing what you're doing. And Green Bay's offense, if you can put up 28 points in this game, which is going to be tough,
00:40:55
Speaker
You're going to feel really good about your opportunity to win this one.
00:41:00
Speaker
Knicks isn't turning the ball over like he was last year, but I always say when you have this kind of player, the guy he was at Auburn is still in there somewhere.
00:41:11
Speaker
And, you know, he's gotten better at avoiding sacks and negative plays and all that kind of stuff. But his avenue for doing that is not the same, he doesn't have the same escapability as a Caleb Williams, where like he's going to totally run away from all your defensive. He's a good athlete, but he's not going to completely run away from your defense like Caleb could from everyone but Parsons and you know maybe Javon Bullard and maybe Edger Quay. So like you've got to take advantage of that.
00:41:42
Speaker
Push him to desired locations within and outside the pocket. And like you said, just tighten up your coverage a little bit. What will help in that area is there's been reports that Patrick Bryant, who has elevated himself to their second wide receiver, he is expected to miss the game with a hamstring injury. So that takes out a weapon for Knicks to utilize.
00:42:06
Speaker
And... This offense was really clunky before Bryant asserted himself as the second receiver on the team. So that'll be really important. He's got a decent wide receiver over there, but for some reason he does not use him.
00:42:26
Speaker
I think it boggles everybody's mind why he doesn't use Marvin Mims like he should be. Yeah, I'm just looking at it now that Mims is averaging under 10 yards of reception, which is wild. And wi Mims looked like he was on his way to potential stardom back in 2023 and was a draft darling and stuff. And yeah, it's like, and and it's funny because,
00:42:51
Speaker
Peyton has, you know, you look at his time and and not sayly in New Orleans, and he always had this soft spot for those smaller, speedy wide receivers, you know, like Brandon Cooks or like a Lance Moore even and stuff like that. Like he always had these like little shorter, fast receivers.
00:43:09
Speaker
And for whatever reason, Mims started off hot in his career and that has just completely tailed off the past couple seasons. So, You know, good. don't Don't use the speed guy against us. Like, that's fine by me. But anyone else that catches your eye in this game?
00:43:27
Speaker
I mean, nick still will give up some because he's already thrown nine interceptions on the season. So he he does have... a the I mean, there is potential there.
00:43:41
Speaker
sut R.J. Harvey, we've already talked about the run game. Harvey is is electric. Shout out Sarah Kelleher because that's a fellow alum there.
00:43:54
Speaker
But Harvey was kind of a harve he was kind of a draft year. They... crush of mine coming into this year they They don't have – well, you got to be careful with their tight ends. They have Evan Ingram who is kind of what you would hope Lucas Musgrave could become. Not going to be the a blocker but is going to be the seam guy – is
00:44:22
Speaker
that you have to, he's a mismatch. And then you've got Troutman. Do you remember where Troutman came from?
00:44:33
Speaker
is he the UNI guy? northern and i yes Yeah. I thought you were being where he spent some time in his career. No, no. I just, I was trying to remember if he, what school he went to. he went to Dayton, it says.
00:44:50
Speaker
Okay.
00:44:51
Speaker
Okay. Because there was one that was drafted for out of Northern Iowa. And I think it was that same year that Troutman did. Yeah. But I... Yeah.
00:45:04
Speaker
So... And I couldn't remember if that was the guy or not. But I remember him kind of being like a late riser in the draft process that year. yeah And so, I mean, he's got a little bit to him, but...
00:45:21
Speaker
Ingram is going to be the more matchup that you have to watch out for. just because He's got the home run speed. Yeah. yeah So, yeah. Other than that, no, I really don't have. Like I said, if they would all a sudden start using Marvin Mims for some reason, that would be scary.
00:45:40
Speaker
But otherwise, I'm not really overly scared on a lot of their guys. oh Shit, hit the wrong one.
00:45:51
Speaker
Franklin Bryant is not going to play. and you know, little Jordan Humphrey isn't going to scare me at all.
00:46:04
Speaker
So, yeah, that there's not much there outside of Cortland. I mean, they have guys, but it's not like you have to game plan for those guys. So,
00:46:16
Speaker
I think the big thing with Satin at this point, he's still a really good receiver. The big concern you would have is like, he's a big body who knows he's a big body. And you always kind of like, especially with RDBs, it's like, okay, like who's going to do what kind of thing. So yeah.
00:46:33
Speaker
But other than that, I don't really have too much more. I feel like we'll just be going, you know, barking up the same trees and stuff.
Game Predictions and Over/Unders
00:46:40
Speaker
So I'm ready to get into over-unders if you are at this point. Yeah, just a second. We forgot to hit the button earlier. Never tell me the odds.
00:46:50
Speaker
yeah Now my page just went away. Here it is. oh So like I've said for the last couple weeks, these are just probably going to be similar for the next few weeks anyway.
00:47:03
Speaker
But so my first one I've got over under Jordan Love, one and a half touchdowns. I said it at this because the last few games that's been his target is two touchdowns or a minimum of two.
00:47:15
Speaker
So yeah, over under one and a half for him. I'm going under. I think he'll have one passing.
00:47:23
Speaker
But I just think that this is going to be a – I think that this is going to be a grinded out kind of game and it's going to be Jacobs diving in from like short yardage kind of game. Like Jacobs might end up with two kind of thing and stuff.
00:47:38
Speaker
I'm going to say over just because I think it is going to end up two, but I think one of them is going to be a receiver and the other one's going to be like on a Josh Jacobs screen. e And so that's that's where I'm sitting on that one. What do I got for the next one? Over under Micah, one and a half sacks.
00:47:58
Speaker
Under for the reverse jinx.
00:48:03
Speaker
Well, he got shut out against the Bears, although he put up a shit ton of pressures. I'm going to say he he gets his revenge on that, and he he does get two.
00:48:16
Speaker
The last one I got is over under Watson, one and a half touchdowns, because again, the last two games he's come up with two touchdowns. so I've got the under on this one purely because I've got Jordan only throwing for one.
00:48:29
Speaker
and like I said, because of who I expect, Denver to cover Watson, I don't think he's going to have a great impact in this game just because I do think that while Watson has the athleticism advantage and he has improved as a route runner, Sertan is just, you know, in terms of his coverage skills against Watson's route running capabilities, Sertan has the the the the advantage there.
00:49:00
Speaker
now if the packers o-line is going to you know have a dominant day up front and or their run game really sets things up for the play action pass game all bets are off at that point but i i do this thing like i said this is more on the backs of i have love only for one touchdown Well, I'm going to take the under with it too, just because like I said, you know, if love gets one to him and then one to Jacobs, then obviously he he doesn't have the two touchdowns. So I got the under on that, but I'm also, again, like I said earlier, I'm hoping this becomes a game where Jordan will spread the ball around
Packers' Offensive Adaptations
00:49:39
Speaker
to more. Yeah. This, I think you have to have this be one of those games because like I said,
00:49:46
Speaker
you just have to expect that Sertan is going to eliminate whoever he's covering on a given play. And therefore, and like, look, Denver has a bunch of names on their defense, but they're names that at this part of their careers, you should be able to take advantage of. It is a bummer not having Tucker, but if you have the chance to have Luke, to have Musgrave running seam routes against Dre Greenlaw or Alex Singleton in coverage,
00:50:14
Speaker
You got to take advantage of that opportunity. And i'd like Luke's chances against that. Luke was having a solid game against the Broncos the last time he played in, debt you know, they played in Denver in 2023. And Luckily, Kareem Jackson no longer plays for the Broncos, Musgrave doesn't have to worry about getting potentially concussed or have his ankle rolled after he gets potentially concussed by a dirty hit from Jackson. So obviously he has to work watch out for Hufanga, who is a similar player in that vein, or Hufanga, who is a similar player in that vein. But...
00:50:50
Speaker
I think this is a game where Musgrave could, he's my sleeper for like having one of his patented two catches, 46 yard kind of games because he just gets up the seam on Denver and just kind of like, that's the thing, like I said, is you can't get caught up trying to keep everything short because Denver's too good for that. You do have to still find ways to push the balls into the intermediate and deep zones of the field. and take advantage of your opportunities there. And I do think that Musgrave up the seam is an opportunity for the Packers here. I will throw one on here.
00:51:24
Speaker
got to do it for the brand. Is this the magic week for Matthew Golden?
00:51:30
Speaker
I'm going to keep saying yes until I can't anymore just because I do believe in the kid. And it's not just because I go back to that. I made the prediction and got it right. I just, I think he is that special that he can do it.
00:51:45
Speaker
I did talk. I was talking to somebody about Matthew golden last week and, I said, with as many guys as they have on the roster, they're just slow rolling him. they're they're not goingnna They don't have to force him out there to be the playmaker week one.
00:52:03
Speaker
and so if they And plus, again, i go back to what do you got to use when you catch the ball? You use your hands. Well, what are your hands connected to? Your wrist. Well, if you can't move your wrist, you can't move your hand. So, you know, if he's if he's hurt, he's hurt. but I still am kind of pissed off seeing that somebody put out there, well, is is Matthew Golden the
Matthew Golden's Performance Debate
00:52:25
Speaker
bust? Well, you know, fuck you.
00:52:26
Speaker
And theres you can't judge a guy. It's not like a Jamarcus Russell where, you know, you can see bust written all over him just because of his attitude and his shit like that. it's it takes a little bit longer than that and i have to laugh uh and i can't pronounce his name for nothing but everybody wanted the kid from ohio state yeah he's falling off in a bad way as the season yeah so you know basically once the baker mvp talk ended so did
00:53:05
Speaker
Buka's rookie of the year talk to that that fell off that that fell off a cliff as well. So, yeah, I agree. Like he was getting i don't want to say he was getting force fed opportunities, but he had way more of a direct path to receptions and targets and stuff. And, you know, Golden's learning a much more sophisticated offense in terms of both the play call and what's expected out of the receivers. He was being groomed for a role that you know The team needed him to do more than it was the one that fit him best, so to speak.
00:53:35
Speaker
But at the same time, despite all those things, all season, he's gotten open. When they've thrown him the ball, he's caught it when he's had the opportunity to to catch it.
00:53:46
Speaker
And you know I don't believe he has a drop to his record. at you know Knock on wood, I do not believe he has a drop. I think he's got one or two. Yeah, I'm trying to think which ones those are, but to whatever. Like, it's it's a very low number. and But yeah, like, i it is more a matter of opportunity than like he is failing the team. Like you said, circumstances have been the way they are, and I just don't think they needed him to be that guy yet kind of thing. And, you know, it's just the numbers game and stuff. But...
00:54:21
Speaker
i'm gonna say no just because i'm you know just like with the uh the micah sax thing i'm just i've put my heels in the ground and i'm gonna stay that way until the status quo changes but like you i'm rooting for him like it's gonna happen people need to stop being stupid about the dumbest things and stuff but yeah So according to P, a pro football reference, he's got 24 catches on 33 targets.
00:54:48
Speaker
And I know at least most of those targets are like overshots or whatever. Yeah. And, and there's a couple of, you can call them drops on, on the two deep shots that they tried to take to him because they bounced off his hands on, on both of them.
00:55:06
Speaker
But I know there was one other one, and I can't remember the game off the top of my head. But he like, bobbled it. It went out. And, yeah. I do remember one specifically. I just can't remember what game it was with. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, I wouldn't deem the ones against Washington drops because the the one Amos broke it up, and then the other one, that was like a fingertip reach out to try and grab it kind of won. I think it was Carolina. I'd have to go back and look. I think there was one against Carolina. think right. I think you're right. that I think that is the one. But either way, the best is yet to come for Golden. And I highlight him because if he's healthy, this is the week you need his skill set. Because like I said, it's a heavy man coverage team. And also...
00:55:51
Speaker
you know He hasn't been able to show it yet, but he is a yak production guy because he can stick his foot in the ground off a catch and make a cut and get upfield. So you need all of that. thing that I would love for them to do if he's healthy and can play, and you know for certain Sertana's going to be on Watson, I'd send Golden Deep.
00:56:11
Speaker
yeahp I know Riley has some speed to him, but he does not have Matthew Golden's speed, and I'd send him deep. First shot. Let him go. Yep.
00:56:21
Speaker
yep But that's going to do it for us tonight. We'll have your post game, as Joe and I were joking about before, i did you know we we're because of what time time slot this game is in, we are going we are more than likely, unless something happens, going live for the post game show. And because of the way the schedule has shaken out, there is a high chance that we are going live for every post game recap the rest of the way.
00:56:49
Speaker
pending whatever the league decides to do with the week 18 game against the Vikings. But we'll get there when we get there. But yeah, this game's recap will be a live show. So please check out the website, ohanapackers.org. Support us there through the shop. Check out articles.
00:57:06
Speaker
Struggling to come up with a topic this week, but I will come up with something... Post something tomorrow to get up for all you to look at. i'll try I am trying to put two articles up a week just to keep content going in on the site. So check us out over there. Please follow the podcast on your social medias at Ohana underscore Packers on Twitter, at Ohana Packers Edition on Instagram. Please follow Ahana Packers Edition on Facebook. As I noted, we're going to a lot of live streams, and if we can get our follower account on Facebook up, we're going to be able to live stream to that account as well. Please follow the podcast on your favorite podcasting apps. Please give us a like and a subscribe.
00:57:44
Speaker
I'll try to be better about it too, but Joe's really good about putting out questions or comment requests as the game is going for us to go over in the postgame. I'll try to do my best to be on top of that as well from my point. But until then...
00:57:59
Speaker
The Packers are heading to strengthen their postseason their postsea in rumble, get the vibes good, it just prove that they are the contenders they want to be. And this test in mile high is a big one. So for all of us, go Pack Go and aloha.