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"Eight Games To Go" ACN Pod 113
88 Plays1 year ago
#ncfc are 1 positive result away from a playoff spot with only 8 games to go. Why does it feel like we're reversing towards the end of the season? The Athletic's Michael Bailey joins us to talk about inconsistency, the 3 mega games coming up, Angus, Kenny&Gabby and a quieter summer ahead than most fans will accept...
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Transcript
Introduction and Season Overview
00:00:22
Speaker
Welcome to the Long Come Knowledge Podcast, and with eight games left to go in the season, we bring you one of the top eight football writers called Michael in the country to plot the run-in. Michael, firstly, welcome back, and I'll start by asking how tender are your hooks approaching this April footy run-in?
00:00:42
Speaker
Well, I'm curious who the other seven are. I quite like that list, I think. I did a quick Google. It's actually harder than you think. That's very good. Is that kind? Sorry, Jon. No, I was going to say, if by the end of the season you're in the top six, then that's an achievement.
00:01:02
Speaker
Yeah, that's true. Yeah, that would be a very
Top Six Aspirations: Are They Justified?
00:01:04
Speaker
late run. You have to sort of be like people sticking against the other Michaels to get through it. The big question is, would I deserve it? You know, would I deserve to be in that top six or would I have just made some really bad decisions and you know, ultimately it's just a step too far. Anyway, let's talk about an origin stage. I'm sort of up to probably the E in tender hooks. I'm sort of sitting there looking at it, wondering whether I can, you know, be bothered to write the rest or not.
00:01:32
Speaker
I feel like there should be a degree of excitement because there is at least something to play for and just the whole context that takes you beyond the current situation means that
00:01:46
Speaker
it's just not there. I feel like the team, I feel like the club probably has not done enough to deserve to finish in the top six almost. There was enough there maybe at the start of the season and just by one way or another, it just hasn't worked out. And I think people probably find their excitement and their hope and belief going forwards in what the club looks like next season when there's a bit more development. I think that is what
00:02:14
Speaker
a lot of supporters are feeling more excited about than what happens this year. But I don't know, maybe that's harsh. I don't know. It's been a really interesting, intriguing season to follow, that is for sure.
00:02:26
Speaker
I don't think it is harsh at all. I wrote the intro that I was going to ask you and then sort of checked myself to think, why wouldn't his hooks be extremely tender? Because when you look at the table, we are the very next people in the queue behind the playoffs. It is a one result swing between us. We are playing other teams in the playoffs, so there is an element of it that we affect our own fate.
00:02:49
Speaker
and then you think i need a game so it's not like i was only one or two is a good is a good period of work that you could build up momentum yet yet somehow before looking at since seven five at the moment the first thing i think of what i wake up in the morning isn't isn't the promotion push which,
00:03:06
Speaker
It is all consuming when you're pushing for promotion in the previous seasons that we've done it, and it is at the front of our minds, and it's at the start of every conversation you have with pals.
Stoke Game Analysis
00:03:15
Speaker
But, Pun, I think you feel the same as Michael and myself, in that I'm almost telling myself to get excited for it, and then I watch, for example, Stoke on Saturday, and you think for the vast majority of the game, that team doesn't look like it should be anywhere near the top half, let alone top six.
00:03:36
Speaker
Stoke game was really interesting in the way we set up. I mean we went 4-4-2 when we went agricultural and almost I think the narrative has been constructed to say that that was out of necessity but I still feel like we had players like Marcelino Nunez and you know Marquinhos on the bench where if we'd have wanted to bring a bit of extra creativity, if we would have wanted to play maybe in a
00:03:57
Speaker
Wagner-esque way we could have done, it really worried me that it was almost like an acceptance of, right, well, we've just got to dig out a draw or try and scab a 1-0 win here, you know, and not get beat. That, to me, just screams of a team that isn't going to make it, especially with, as we were talking about before, recording three of the next four games being really, really difficult.
00:04:21
Speaker
But for me, it's the variation in performance. And it almost coincides with when we record podcasts. So we'll do one really positive podcast and then we'll do one really, not necessarily massively negative, but one kind of mere podcast way ahead. Head scratcher. Yeah, it's like, well, you know, and we're back here, aren't we? You know, after the last one was Post Millwall and it all felt like, you know, we were booking tickets for Wembley.
00:04:44
Speaker
Whereas net or booking hotels for envy, whereas now it's just like we feel so far off it, even though it's three points.
Inconsistency and Mental Strength Issues
00:04:51
Speaker
Norwich just feel miles away from being top six challenges. And it is that you turn up and you never know what you're going to get out of this team. And I think any time that you're looking to build momentum or consistency, you know, I've felt like when we've turned up at Carrow Road,
00:05:09
Speaker
for Daniel Farkas's promotion seasons, Paul Lambert's promotion seasons, Alex Neil's promotion seasons, Nigel Worthington's promotion seasons.
00:05:17
Speaker
I know what I'm going to get and I'm probably not going to be surprised most of the time when we're going to put in a performance that might not necessarily produce three points, but it will be a team that we can be proud of. And we're just nowhere near that at the moment, are we? We're a team that struggles with so many things, one of them being kind of a proper identity, but second of all, just coming up with
00:05:40
Speaker
answers to questions that have been there all season and it's I don't know it baffles me every time I watch us now as to you know how we can just throw in a four out of ten and then the next week be an eight out of ten. But you mentioned you know turning up to Carrow coming back from half time you know coming back from the bar at half time you don't know if you're going to see the same thing as you saw so Michael I want your enormous brain on this
00:06:05
Speaker
What's the number one thing with all of this inconsistency that you could either put your finger on as the cause of it, or the number one thing Wagner needs to change over the summer with recruitment? Putting aside the unreal levels of defensive errors that lead to goals,
00:06:24
Speaker
and defensive errors that leave leave to chances in the last two games we've had them again you know otherwise extremely capable centre backs who have played 88 minutes of really good level championship centre back play but then have got a sunday league level mistake in them almost every single game putting that aside because you feel like surely we'll come back to the mean next season and you know the individual areas you'd hope would live themselves out
00:06:48
Speaker
The inconsistency, that is the thing that if this team is going to do anything in any league, that has got to be a team, something that this team irons out, surely.
Midfield Dynamics and Performance
00:06:57
Speaker
Yeah, I think the first point I want to make is that I feel like there have been elements in probably this year where I have wanted to lean into a bit of good feeling because it has felt like there has been no hope at times across and no enjoyment.
00:07:15
Speaker
for a number of years. So I've felt, so for example, after the Millwall win, you want to be like, you know what, that is a great performance, great result, stands up. And you sort of focus on that more than some of the mitigation that comes around it. But that mitigation is still there. And it obviously then comes to the fore when the performances regress to what has been more of a
00:07:37
Speaker
of an average performance level from the team this year. In some ways, they probably have been relatively consistent. I think the problem is that that consistency level is below expectation of what they are capable of. The reality is they're pretty good on the ball. They seem to lack
00:08:05
Speaker
the a lot of the mentalities, the mentality requirements to succeed at the moment. They haven't really had that all season. And there have then been issues with the coaching as well. But ultimately, they are kind of where they are now and where they've sort of looked like being. I find that
00:08:33
Speaker
Ultimately, the team hasn't achieved what everyone thought it would do to this point, I think because there's a cultural element around the club that is finding it very difficult to reconcile what they are trying to do. What are they trying to achieve? I think they've done it twice and they've been very good at achieving it because they've won the division and then it's been really difficult. And I think this probably goes for a lot of supporters as well. When you're then not clearly as good this time around and the prize is still the same, it's very hard to
00:09:02
Speaker
And you're not talking about a huge amount of hunger and desire, but it's just enough compared to other teams that haven't experienced it yet and just feel a bit more excited about it. So that was probably the thing about the Stoke performance is very similar to what we saw under Dean Smith. Ultimately, they weren't great at how they were trying to score. I couldn't really figure out how they were trying to win the game. I'm sure there was an element where they were.
00:09:29
Speaker
They were trying to be compact. They had no ability to control the game. And ultimately, if Stoke had been a bit more acute with their finishing, they would have lost. Norwich would have lost. I thought Angus made some decent saves, but it was also a degree of poor finishing as well.
Goalkeeper Situation and Team Dynamics
00:09:44
Speaker
So they were on that basis very similar to the team that had played all season. So that is kind of how I view Norwich this year, which is a shame. And I can't really reconcile it in my head because
00:09:57
Speaker
At the start of the season, I was looking at the rest of the championship and seeing a golf in quality, and these players should have been capable of much more. And now I look at them over the body of the season and think that it's not necessarily that they'll rediscover the levels that we thought they were all capable of, but these are the levels that they're capable of. And some players aren't as good as they were. They're on the decline. Others are not fulfilling potential to a consistent level. And here we are.
00:10:25
Speaker
which is quite difficult because I think everyone's now looking at it and thinking, right, we need to rip this up and let David Wagner have a full summer and let's go again. And that's a tricky scenario then to deal with if you are expecting a team that is going to finish in the top six each season, because there's no God given right that that is what Norwich will look like.
00:10:44
Speaker
It's a very hard narrative to sell Norwich fans that we wouldn't be a top 26 club because as much as that phraseology is kicked around and laughed at, it is very much, in the last decade, that's pretty much where we play, right? So we are a top 26 club. We're about as top 26 as you can get, or sort of 18 to 27, you could argue at the moment.
00:11:10
Speaker
And so it would be very hard for anyone to stomach or even look ahead to a season where that might not be not necessarily God given right, but something that something would have to go drastically wrong, like a couple of really serious injuries to key players would stop that from happening. And I am count myself in that camp.
00:11:27
Speaker
So to you on the inconsistencies, as a fan, as someone who is willing the ball over the line, the frustration levels, I think, for me personally, is what makes this inconsistency so annoying because we've changed the coach and we have, I think, seen
00:11:45
Speaker
tangible difference. I think the highs are higher than they ever were under the bollard. The lows are not as low in that we don't get stuck in those same ruts that we did under Smith where you would literally see a triangle at the back happen for 14, 15 passes with no clue how to progress to pull up the pitch. Even in our stodgier Wagner performances, that hasn't happened.
00:12:10
Speaker
So that frustration for me is a fan of, we've made an improvement yet we're still this fallible. Do you follow with that? I get what you mean. I think I've looked at it and I think for me, it's around one particular area on the pitch. If you look at all of our recent performances where we've looked good, Kenny McLean and Gabby Sarah have played really, really well and have driven us towards a performance where we're going to go and pick up three points.
00:12:38
Speaker
in our performances where we haven't looked so good. Certainly Gabby Sarra hasn't had that same kind of influential role. Kenny has started to not necessarily regress back to what he was, but he hasn't been afforded, I guess, the same space and time in the quarterback role as perhaps he did before, because people have had a look at the way in which Norwich play and realised that
00:13:02
Speaker
If they deny an Irish space and they deny McLean passing opportunities, then maybe they'll be able to pick our pockets higher up the pitch. And I look back lovingly on promotion seasons and the example that I went for was Daniel Farkas' 18-19 team.
00:13:19
Speaker
And in those holding midfield positions, you had Alex Tetti, you had Mary of Ranchich, you had Tom Tribal, you had Moritz Leitner and you had Kenny McLean, so five players for two positions. And I think Norridge's issue here is we can't change it up in the centre of midfield. You can bring on Marcelino Nunez, but I think it's been proven already that he's probably more of a potent attacking player than he is someone who's going to be able to play in the middle of the park.
00:13:48
Speaker
with the exception of what Liam Gibbs, who looks good and looks energetic and is decent on the ball, he's not an answer to those questions. I don't think he's kicked on as much as we thought maybe he would. No, but he's got enthusiasm and he's got dynamism and he's got energy and his range of passing is decent enough for where we want to be. But I guess what I'm trying to say is,
00:14:14
Speaker
Of those five players that I've just listed, you could always pick two that were going to be a decent pair and that were more than likely going to be effective. You've got Kenny and Sarah at the moment. And if one of them doesn't perform, you haven't really got anyone that you can place back in that team and think we're going to change the game meaningfully.
00:14:32
Speaker
And it feels like midfield really is our issue and the signing of Isaac Hayden didn't work out. We signed Nunez, he started like a steam train but it feels like he was signed to play in a 4-3-3 rather than a 4-1-4-1 or 4-2-3-1. It does feel like that reset that you've referenced Michael needed to happen sooner rather than later but the finances around that and the cultural issues around that and the churn
00:14:59
Speaker
I worry about that a lot for next season. And that's that's the difficulty for me is that there feels like as much as I can simplify it to the midfield, there are deeper issues. I just think that we're perhaps papering over the cracks of those right now. But yeah, look, you know, in terms of bringing it back to point, the midfield is is where we can't change it up and we can't change games if we can't change those personnel right now.
00:15:27
Speaker
I mean, in the last, um, home game, Kenny hit maybe four or five of the nicest diagonal long, long ball passes I've seen at Carrow Road for many a year. I mean, I mean, they were crook-esque. They were Vranchette-esque. They were incredible. Such a Kenny Stan. Fuck's sake.
00:15:43
Speaker
No, no, no, Michael was nodding vigorously when I said that, but he did. But he also in that same performance had his both hands above his head apologizing to all four stands for incredibly amateurish sort of shins and... And he's got that in his locker, hasn't he? He's always had that in his locker.
00:16:01
Speaker
And I think the issue that you sort of the thing about those two is when one of them has a bad game, unfortunately, because of the very nature of the position, it automatically means the other one is it's impossible for Sarah to have to shine if Kenny's having a stinker and vice versa, because Kenny's stability and Kenny's moving the ball around is only possible if Sarah is occupying whoever else they're six or whoever is trying to push up and close us down.
00:16:30
Speaker
Likewise, if McLean is inaccurate with those passes, the ball isn't getting cut back then to sour on the edge of the box to then weave around and make things happen. So yeah, it's one of those things where I really like both players. And maybe it's as simple as the fact that there is no one really, Gibbs hasn't had maybe the game time or whatever hasn't kicked on enough to be able to be a real threat to them. Because we saw that with Krul, didn't we, when he had real competition for
00:16:59
Speaker
You know, he kicked on his performances and saw off Fierman as a kind of competitor. And I didn't want to touch on Angus because, you know, he's getting he's getting his international call up. He's changed his allegiance to that of his dad. And just a word, I think, Michael, on a seized opportunity, because we were a bit sort of surprised when he was taken out of the team, when when when cruel sort of kept his place after the Cup game that Wagner oversaw for his first game.
00:17:26
Speaker
And I don't think anyone can look past Angus Gunn being number one now for the foreseeable.
Playoff Chances and Points Potential
00:17:33
Speaker
He seems to have really matured into a fine keeper. Yeah, definitely. I think it was a big call to drop Angus and David Wagner kind of admitted it was down to a sort of a hunch, really. It was a feeling in his stomach that he was going to sort of stand by to bring Tim Crow back in.
00:17:53
Speaker
But it did seem really harsh on Angus at the time because I thought the performances were okay up until that point. Obviously it then plays out that there are errors made and I think probably the fact that Angus got back in was maybe an acknowledgement that that hadn't worked out.
00:18:11
Speaker
And from that point on, I think Angus has looked like someone who knows that there's a bit of belief in him and you're right, it's seizing those opportunities. I think his distribution is being good. I think there have still been
00:18:27
Speaker
some issues. I mean, I still don't think there's a massive gulf between him or Tim. I think they're both quite evenly matched goalkeepers and that possibly has been part of the issue this year. I'd yet to know of a successful team that chops and changes its goalkeeper. I can only ever think of successful teams who they absolutely know who their goalkeeper is and then the defense gets built off that. As soon as you just sort of
00:18:49
Speaker
choosing another goalkeeper and it becomes a battle. You almost don't want that. You just need someone who's really pushing the existing number one or they've got enough about them to do it on their own almost. So I think that sort of had to be resolved really. Angus just needs to be the goalkeeper now from the rest of the season and just be like that. I don't know what that means for the future going beyond the summer, obviously.
00:19:14
Speaker
But they've still been issues. I mean, I thought Angus was partially responsible for the goal against Sunderland. I thought he just didn't get set and he left too much of the goal open. As I said, I thought he did really well and he was obviously a difference maker in picking up a point at Stoke, but I would have been very disappointed probably if he sort of conceded any of those given the finishes that were produced. So he made himself big and he read those situations. So that was probably where the credit is for him reading those opportunities. But as I said before, I'm not sure the finishing was great.
00:19:45
Speaker
It's kind of something that just needs to be settled. And I kind of always half wondered if Angus coming in was with a mind that if Norwich did get relegated, Tim would probably move on. And then it sort of unraveled. He didn't go to the World Cup and all of a sudden it was like, oh, well, we've got two really, you know, evenly matched, very good goalkeepers.
00:20:03
Speaker
How are we going to deal with that? Don't know really, but they're contracted. So let's carry on and see how it goes. Yeah, who knows what the plan was. So yeah, I'm, I'm delighted for Angus, because I mean, ultimately, when most people have spoken about the goalkeeping situation, they've distilled it to the fact that, well, Angus is younger, isn't he? So he'll be around longer. I mean, that's not a reason to pick your goalkeeper. But I think probably in terms of building the team going forward, that's, that is probably a necessity if, if it does switch to a dynamic where it's about planning,
00:20:33
Speaker
beyond what happens at the end of this season.
00:20:36
Speaker
Well, I mean, let's look at the end of the season then, because there's eight games left for us, nine games for a couple of teams, although to be fair, the ones that really affect Norwich, mostly have got eight games left as well. I don't think we're going to be troubling Burnley or Shovel United. So if we look at that, I want a straightforward one word or one number answer from you, starting with you, Punt, how many points are we going to get between now and the end of the season out of the maximum 24 available?
00:21:06
Speaker
14. Would you like me to expand on that logic? Not yet. Not yet. Michael. Go ahead. 11. By the way, even if Norwich got all their 14 points, they'd still be two points short of Burnley, by
Championship Quality and Promotion Challenges
00:21:20
Speaker
the way. Yes. Oh, this is the thing. I think it's unlikely that Burnley will lose all the remainder of their games. And that's three points deducted. It's interesting. I also thought I was being very cup half full, but also ended up with 11 points.
00:21:35
Speaker
Well, I was as positive as I could be and that included us beating Blackburn. Yeah, I only got us drawing with Blackburn. So take us through it, pun. Where did your four team points come from? Because that's definitely the sunny side up approach. It definitely is. And it still leaves us falling short of the playoffs, having looked at the other team's games as well. So it's not that sunny side up, really, to be honest with you. It leaves us finishing, I think, on...
00:22:01
Speaker
71.72 points, something like that. But yeah, it's not enough, I don't think, based off the remaining games that Millwall, Blackburn and Luton have. But I had this drawing against Sheffield United, had this beating Blackburn, beating Rotherham, losing to Borough, beating QPR, who are woeful right now, drawing with Swansea, which I think will probably be Russell Martin putting the final nail in our coffin, losing to Esperom and beating Blackpool.
00:22:30
Speaker
Well, if that West Brom game, the penultimate game, if we produce Millwall levels for the Sheffield United and borough or Blackburn, if in two of those three games we get decent results, that West Brom game could be really, really interesting. So they've got a game in hand, the two points behind us, they've got a game in hand. They're on the march to try and kind of come up. That could be really interesting given that so often in the championship,
00:22:59
Speaker
and it seems to be the case looking at the final fixtures this this season as well were it to go to the final day you do have the likes of millwall playing blackburn who may well already have kind of secured it we're playing blackpool probably already going to go down their four points drift and they've played a game more than the two teams above the bottom three
00:23:18
Speaker
So there's quite a few of the playoff teams are playing teams with nothing to play for in theory. Well, I think the next two games, I think psychologically for Norwich, it's absolutely massive because we've got Sheffield United and Blackburn. If, as I predicted, you know, please don't hold me to this, but we will get four points from those two games. We'll hold you to that. Millwall. Well, yeah, all right, if you like. Millwall have West Brom and Luton.
00:23:42
Speaker
Yeah it is probable that they will drop and then met you know if we then see ourselves not necessarily in the top six but point off.
00:23:50
Speaker
two points off or level pegging with Millwall. It feels very different, doesn't it? Going into those final six. Whereas, you know, if we fail to pick up points and Millwall maybe get results, I think it's over. Season's done. Well, I think this is this is we talk about what good podcast, bad podcast. A lot of the this sort of meh feeling at the moment. We've got Michael on. He's a good podcast. And then there's us. I mean, so Norwich done well podcast, Norwich done badly podcast. This is how our cadence has been this this calendar year.
00:24:20
Speaker
One of the reasons it feels like that right now is because we have kind of risen to within one result of the playoffs on the back of no win in three. We are sort of in full on in reverse gear towards the playoffs. And I've said this all season, how bad is the championship that we have seen our team deliver such a poor body of work? To your phrase, Michael, over the season,
00:24:47
Speaker
it's been more bad than good that I've watched Norwich play yet somehow we could easily be battling it out for the Premier League. Well that's probably the answer to the baffling point I've still got in my head from earlier which is that I was looking at these championship teams going oh my gosh the quality is horrific by you know the top teams are pushing. Ultimately Norwich are now in that level so it all looks much for muchness. I can tell you if
00:25:15
Speaker
It's going to be so hard for any team getting promoted. I'm not so fussed about Burnley playing at Manchester City because any team in the Premier League can get done by six or seven. But in terms of picking up points regularly against bottom half side so that you stay up in the Premier League,
Future Overhaul and Recruitment Challenges
00:25:29
Speaker
I don't see that from any team, but only possibly. And I think you are at the point now where that gap is so big that you do have to bring in six really good players to even give yourself a chance with your starting 11. Well, on that point, Michael, I was watching Match of the Day at the weekend because there was a lot of the kind of bottom teams who were in action.
00:25:48
Speaker
the squad, the squads of the likes of a Southampton and the Leeds and, you know, in compound West Ham, you know, the teams that are down there, that the results against those are so important because we know how relegation battles play out. We know how important those results are. And it is, you know, one of the truest of football cliches that it doesn't matter what happens at Old Trafford. You will get from everyone like us with Against Ban City and, you know, the nice Newcastle and Pookie Hatrick, you'll get the odd nice sort of cherry on top as you go through the season.
00:26:18
Speaker
it really matters what happens in terms of mentally those those bottom six teams and you compare probably aside from burning again any of the top 10 in the championship are squads to the squads of those bottom three or four someone's gonna have to spend forest levels of money to to even compete unless you do it unless you have one of those romantic odd sort of chef of united brentford can't really work out why it's working because these players aren't
00:26:47
Speaker
You know what I mean? You have to have one of those momentum seasons and then just hope the second set of four or five you buy are also just as good. I genuinely think Norwich would need eight first-team players if we were to get promoted. I think with Brentford, they
00:27:02
Speaker
Looking at it now, they had a pretty young group that just had a higher ceiling. I think Norwich got promoted with more experienced players that they picked up cheap. And then there were obviously some younger players there, but ultimately the ceilings on Brentford's players have been higher than the ones Norwich have had. And then they probably played something that's a bit more pragmatic in terms of a system and made it more effective. But it's...
00:27:28
Speaker
And also they recruited a handful of players for more money that have been more capable of delivering. And beat us on a couple of those signings, like the defender chat. I was having that conversation with someone the other day, but yeah, with Aya, you know, it's like another three, four million pounds and Orange would have signed him, but they didn't want to. So Brentford signed him.
00:27:48
Speaker
And who was the other one I was thinking of? I can't remember now. There was another player in a similar situation. It was like, you know, just make that signing or you end up with three players that aren't quite as good. And, you know, I think a lot of where we are now does revolve around the continuing impact of recent recruitment there.
00:28:09
Speaker
decisions by the people making the decisions, not necessarily by the researching and the recruitment team and what they're trying to dig out, but the people making the final calls, speaking to the agents and making those final details. They're the ones who are ultimately responsible for the squad that's out there. And it's a squad that looks a bit unbalanced and
00:28:26
Speaker
and in need of work at a point where you also might not be able to keep hold of the players who have actually succeeded that you've recruited in the past. So if we're closer to the Michael and Tom side of things, 11 points, you would almost certainly not get it done. You feel like 14 has got an outside chance, but probably it needs to be 16-17 of 24.
00:28:52
Speaker
But, you know, you never know. I mean, all of the teams in the playoffs have had at least three or four games without a win at some point in the season and most of them more than once. I mean, like, you know, Watford now was something like 10th. Anyone is capable of going on a bad run.
00:29:07
Speaker
or including Sheffield United downwards basically. So we'll see. But if that does happen and it's another season in the Championship, what is your feeling, Michael, on
00:29:23
Speaker
where we need to set our expectations around the, could you put a percentage of it in terms of how much of a refresh? Because it feels to me like we really need to, other than maybe Angus and Sarge at either end of the pitch, is it a case of we have to sell Aaron's and Sara to try and fund a rebuild with young 20, 21 year olds from League One and further afield? I think,
00:29:51
Speaker
So if we take Burnley, for example, I think they got rid of 12 players or 16 players and got 12 in. They had loads of players out of contract and they had three or four prize assets that other teams wanted to buy. So all of the, and they were relegated obviously as well. They had a new manager who had just come in that summer and was able to recruit players from Belgium quite easily who knew what he was doing. So the whole scenario around that made, I think, for quite a,
00:30:19
Speaker
a useful set of circumstances to completely rebuild that squad. Here, you've got a few players who are still out of contract, but some of them you wouldn't. I would still give an L, presumably his injury is not that bad. I would still give him a new contract because there's a lot of plus sides to keeping him around. But you would say, all right, well, you can lose some players and that will open up some places in the squad.
Financial Strategy and Ownership Expectations
00:30:45
Speaker
look at it and wonder if you want to sell players who are you going to sell and how much for and who's going to want them so max errands is a really interesting case the guy has got 12 months left on his contract so do you give him a new contract and would that mean it was less likely to sell him probably
00:31:06
Speaker
The contract is on at the moment with 12 months left. How much is someone going to bid to buy him? I don't know, like up to 10 million. Is anyone going to offer 10 million for a player who's still got 12, only got 12 months left on his contract might be, you know, free in a year's time. I don't know, maybe, but they would certainly use it as a bargaining chip to narrow it down. So, and then you've got Sarah who is doing well. If he scores 10 plus goals and he's already been linked with other top flight teams in Europe, I can see they're being interested for them, for him.
00:31:34
Speaker
that side of things, I can also see him. I think he's got a long contract, but I don't think he's necessarily at Norwich to build a four year project around getting back to the Premier League. I think he's probably done enough to get some interest from anywhere in Europe. So he'd be an attractive signing. So it's then a question of how much money would Norwich want to build for a
00:31:55
Speaker
for a budget to reshape the squad. And I just see a situation where I think it's just going to be very hard for a total overhaul. I think you have to look at it and say, well, Josh Sargent and Adam Eda, maybe they're going to be the top two next season, or you've got young players coming through who might get a go if they're fit like John Rowe, but still so unproven. You've got Liam Gibbs, who could then play in the middle.
00:32:24
Speaker
Do you do that instead of bringing someone else in? The whole pitch of what the club is, I think, is actually at stake, really. Is it going to be now that we do give some of these younger players a go because we think it's time for them to give a go? I mean, if it is, then I'm not convinced there's enough there to then finish in the top six necessarily. And it's also the level of recruitment that they would then be looking to do. They haven't really done.
00:32:49
Speaker
You know, they could bring in more players from South America that they've scouted, but the team won't be as an attractive proposition necessarily to get back up into the Premier League. That might be a slightly tougher sell, because I would imagine Nunez and Sarah both arrived with, you know, like we go a lot back. That's what we do. And they haven't really done much domestic recruitment, not really, certainly that's worked.
00:33:15
Speaker
And Brexit still means that that whole avenue of recruitment from Europe is trickier. So, and I know that this makes me sound like I'm really miserable and not over, but I do think it's just a wholesale change in terms of what, I don't know what the club is trying, will be trying to do next season. There's obviously Mark Hatanassio is involved. I don't foresee a situation where he's like, right, here's a load of money. We'll go and sort it out for you. I just don't see that necessarily as happening.
00:33:45
Speaker
but doesn't mean it won't. And that is a big unknown. And you've got a lot of fans who have been following the team for seven years and have only known that kind of yo-yoing.
00:33:56
Speaker
Whereas I do remember what it was like to follow them for 10 years in the middle of the championship and nowhere else. But on that point, Michael, I was having a conversation around that kind of expectation setting at the weekend after the Stoke game. And I think that it's a really tricky element that the club have got to handle narrative wise.
00:34:18
Speaker
and I'm not going to talk anymore. I was going to talk about how well they've handled narratives recently, but let's just park that. You can insert your own punchline there. It's going to be hard for them to try and spin that line that, oh, by the way, you can't blame Delia anymore. So all of you misogynistic lot who used to hate Delia and would say it was all her fault for not going to the magic money tree at the bottom of our garden that BBC TV built.
00:34:45
Speaker
and, you know, pluck a million pounds off and sell another cookbook and buy loads of players, it's all Dealey's fault. You now can't make that criticism because there's now this guy who's a billionaire who runs a massive hedge fund who's now actually genuinely got the money. So now it's a choice to not pump the money in, whereas the opinion
00:35:07
Speaker
My opinion has always been, I think if Delia and Michael were worth $740 billion, they probably would have just plowed loads of it, maybe slightly irresponsibly into the football club, because I think they love it that much. Whereas now, I think it's going to be really tricky for the club, if forward slash when Norwich don't gain the playoffs, detention is going to turn to that summer window. And if they go, well, actually, we really don't have the money to do it, everyone will go, well, why did you sell your shares to this guy then? What's the point?
00:35:37
Speaker
I think that point has been in the back of my mind ever since I first found out about the Atanasio's involvement.
00:35:44
Speaker
They're not going to put money into something they don't control. That's exactly what the latest share allotment is about. It's about the club needing some money and then going, all right, OK, well, we'll have some more shares then, please. It's like, OK, I don't envisage a situation where Delia and Michael just want to leave the club yet. But again, maybe that is being discussed. But it never struck me as being about that for them initially, maybe down the line at some point, but not come the summer.
00:36:11
Speaker
But as you said, there's going to be the assumption that basically the sum of it doesn't work out this season, which really hasn't already, to be honest, is people go, well, this model doesn't work, so it needs to change. And I don't know if dealer Michael ready for that to signal the end of their involvement and to sell up. And there's a logistical involvement in that all happening as well.
00:36:34
Speaker
Um, how I, it's why it feels hard, but it's, I don't know what the plan is at the moment. What, what is the club trying to do? Cause at the moment the plan was to finish in top 26 and they kind of got slammed for that being unambitious and they're going to be, you know, quite short of that. And as I said, I don't know if there's, um, that pressure from supporters of like, well, what, what are we, what are we rooting for here? What is, what is this next, where's the club going? Um,
00:37:02
Speaker
I don't know what the answer to that is yet. And people have not really been wanting to really open up on that and sell it. Well, I feel like a part of the reason for that is currently you've got a manager and a set of players who you want to give the outside message that we believe have got enough in them to go up this time. And so why would you put out anything about, but if it doesn't happen, then this is what we're going to do in the summer. It makes perfect sense that their lips are sealed on that side of things.
00:37:32
Speaker
I mean, you're literally talking from, you know, after the game against Blackpool, if we fall in short points total wise or, you know, West Brom game might happen sooner, or we lose in a semi-final or we lose at Wembley. You know, if this season doesn't end in promotion, and it really doesn't matter how between now and then,
00:37:53
Speaker
from basically the first set of headlines after the match review of the final game of the season, attention will turn to, these are the players that are out of contract, what's Atanasio going to do, how much money is there going to be, and the message boards, the podcasts and the conversation in the taverns is going to be, well, surely this is where we get some money pumped into the club, and I hope for their sake that they are prepared and have started thinking about their lines on that, because
00:38:18
Speaker
Otherwise, there's going to be real anger if we drift through a summer. Well, I think there will be that pressure, but I also think we're already seeing some of those lines mentioned because you've got talk of how much development has gone into the
00:38:35
Speaker
Training ground. Training ground has been really developed. That's one of the benefits of what has happened in the past year. We couldn't compete anyway because look, states own some of the clubs. What's the point? We can't do that. So it's now the end of the cycle. So that just happens with teams. So we need to rebuild. We've got a great academy. We've got lots of young players that people know who they
Narrative Challenges and Supporter Management
00:38:55
Speaker
are. So we'll rebuild and we'll go again. And that's your summer narrative. Whether it's
00:39:01
Speaker
enough. Whether it works, there's a lot of assumptions going on there that that season is better. But then if it's not, then as you said, it's how the supporters then are willing to accept that. Is that part of it? Is that enough to sustain the same level of interest in season tickets? Is it that it is more enjoyable in the championship anyway as long as we win half of the games and
00:39:27
Speaker
you know, if we lose the other half, then as long as we try, it's all right, then that's okay. That's fine. That's what that's, that's what the deal is. And that's what everyone's happy with. And everyone's enjoying it. Then that's fine. But it is a detachment to what was being built and what was being sold. And is anyone going to talk openly and be questioned openly about that? Or is it now? Well, you know, we gave it a go. It didn't work. So let's just
00:39:55
Speaker
keep going. Let's just play football all the time. But that whole Mark Atanasio thing, there's no way that they've signed up for second flight football. I think there must be an element of the plan that we haven't been communicated to us. I think there must have been succession planning in place. Again, that would be the other point. The club can say, look, they're here, they're involved, they've given us some money. Maybe at one point they'll say what that money is for.
00:40:25
Speaker
But there's never been a suggestion publicly, really on the record, that they are doing anything to purchase the club anytime soon. So that pressure coming from externally, and obviously it's a logical assumption that it will happen at some point, but
00:40:45
Speaker
There's always been a bit of me that I've just wondered if the idea of having someone here who has access to means is more desirable than actually figuring out how quickly that happens, what it looks like, and that that situation might become a
00:41:03
Speaker
a sort of a circumstance that is there, but no one's really grabbed hold of how to deal with it and how to process it quickly and timely before there's maybe big questions and big pressure and that question mark over what the club is and how it develops. I might be selling people short and they know exactly what it looks like, but I've never really had it clearly spelt out to me that that is the plan. It's more like this guy's great. He's got some money. We'll have him on board.
00:41:32
Speaker
It'll be really useful, but dealer Michael aren't going anywhere. It's just Michael wanted to sell his shares. So that's great. And obviously if we need some money from him, we can have that discussion, but yeah.
00:41:41
Speaker
dealer Michael are still running the club. And now they're sort of running it a bit less because they've had to sell some more shares because we need a bit more money. But we'll carry on. And it's on the club completely to sell and to communicate and to spell out what that is and what it does look like going forward rather than there sort of being a vacuum that could lead to the summer of supporters going, right,
00:42:08
Speaker
That's not
Fan Engagement and Season Tickets
00:42:09
Speaker
worked. Can we have some investment now, please?
00:42:12
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, on that, the fans kind of reaction, have you heard anything from your sparrows punt about season ticket renewal numbers or anything like that? Because the first deadline's passed now, hasn't it? The club put out just before that deadline, didn't they? I think they'd sold 18,000 or kind of in the region of 18,000. I think they'd put out in seasons prior to that that they'd sold more than that. So I don't think it's as high or as healthy maybe as the club would want.
00:42:40
Speaker
Look, there are definitely several hundred people on the waiting list, so I don't think that's going to be an issue. They will probably get in the region of 21,000, 22,000 season tickets that have been snaffled up. But I think talking about the issues that you'd raised, Michael, about a plan
00:43:01
Speaker
I look at what the Etanazios had done at Milwaukee Brewers, and they very much seem to be more about, and I've said this on this podcast before, about infrastructure rather than playing talent. And it was about building something for the community. And actually, Carrow Road is a community asset. Let's not dress that up. That's what it is, and that's what it's there for. And I wonder whether we are just going to continue to see the investment in infrastructure.
00:43:29
Speaker
look, you know, it is the Webbers legacy, I think that they want to leave here and there'd be like a 32, 33,000 capacity, you know, Cara Road and they've done that. And that will stand the test of time. And I do wonder whether brokering this deal with the Atanasios has had that in mind, because they've been the architects of that deal that hasn't been, you know, dealer Michael out there openly touting for for buyers of shares, it has been the club that has that well,
00:43:55
Speaker
directors and officials within the club that have actively gone out and made sure that this kind of investment could come into the football club. And I think that will be a really difficult sell because the tension will be, well, why are you sticking another tier on the city stand or completely ripping up a city stand when actually we might not even have the supporters to fill it if we're not in the Premier League. I think they've got to tread really, really carefully over the next few years to make sure
00:44:24
Speaker
that people stay on board because there are plenty of people, you know, if Dean Smith would have held on for, you know, kind of a few more weeks. I think season ticket renewals could have been horrendous this year. Absolutely horrendous this year. And it was almost just a feel good factor of David Wagner coming back that that has got people coming back to Carrow Road because there was massive pockets of space at Carrow Road.
00:44:48
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, you know, they must have I think at one point we were probably looking at gates that were under 20,000 and that's just unheard of at Carrow Road for what?
Future Plans and Club Narratives
00:44:58
Speaker
25 years, maybe. Yeah, you got it. You got to go back into the back into the late 90s for that sort of the 96, 97, 98 kind of very, very dark era that we were kind of alluding to earlier, Michael. You know, we have been there and we if we are going back to if we're going back to that, it has to then be a case of
00:45:17
Speaker
to your point, well, we really like the football we play or we really love that these are all local academy talents, or we really like we've got progressive young managers learning his craft or, you know, then there has to be some other hook that makes you feel kind of a siege mentality and feel like, yeah, we're doing it our way. And, you know, Norwich fans might sign up for that again. Like, you know, we aren't going to do it with big money. We are going to do it our way. But there needs to be a construct, whether it is around the academy and we build a team around Johnny Rowe and Gibson and some other young and that chap who was on the bench.
00:45:47
Speaker
and the game for last young lad. Happy Kamara. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, if they get lucky and a couple of them hit their stride in preseason, then, you know, and all of a sudden you think, oh, we've got a player here. And they break into the team and look, you know, ala, camp well, ala, errands, and all of a sudden we've got another couple of gems on our hands. Then it's easy to kind of build some fan momentum around that.
00:46:14
Speaker
and their job won't be made as hard because effectively the hardest thing that the club have had to deal with is the coach couldn't coach the players and the players didn't play to the levels of their ability and that is when you start talking about narratives, messaging, communication, none of that matters if you're in the top two or in the playoffs and playing well because we're all too busy talking about Sara's goal or Nunez's assist
00:46:38
Speaker
you know to care about what's going to happen in the summer because we're still fully focused on well maybe we can go back up again which is still you know a mathematical possibility and we will see you again very soon to talk about it. Michael thank you for joining us in your status as top eight Michael in Norfolk talking about football and punt I appreciate that you exist.
00:47:02
Speaker
We had lots of very, very good questions on the Twitter that we haven't got to because we're short on time. So I apologise to everyone that's asked a really good question, and I'm sure we'll answer them at some point in the future. Enjoy what will be a very, very quiet international break in terms of watching Norwich, and then let's see if these next big games coming up can be the making of our season. Right, there you go.