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"Good Friday?" ACN Pod 72
45 Plays4 years ago
Tom, Jon & the wonderful Michael Bailey review Brentford (H) and dare to dream about an early promotion party this season. It's just lovely, it's all lovely. WHAT CAN POSSIBLY GO WRONG NOW?!
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Transcript
Introduction of Hosts
00:00:21
Speaker
Welcome to the Long Come Knowledge Podcast. Sometimes you're 10 points clear of second place and you don't have time to create some kind of onomatopoeic or alliterative intro. You just have to get straight into it. Michael Bailey, welcome to the Long Come Knowledge Podcast. Hello, Tom. Thanks for having me. Thank you very much for joining. Jon Punt, you're also on the line as well. I am. Hello. Isn't it exciting to be so clear and so comfortable and
Norwich City's Strong Performance Discussed
00:00:47
Speaker
isn't it nice to have proven a certain person wrong about there not being a standout team in the league, don't you think, Michael? Yeah, I mean, that was sort of rumbling in the back of my head all the way ahead of the game on Wednesday. I honestly think it was in the back of Daniel Fucker's mind as well because he kept bringing up the comparison with Leeds last season, which I loved. He just kept saying it. And yeah, in fairness to Thomas Frank, he was very magnanimous whilst
00:01:16
Speaker
You probably still wouldn't trust him that he was doing it just to see if Norwich would then go and trip over themselves, which might happen. Who knows? I don't quite trust Thomas Frank. I don't know why, but I think Norwich did enough to put them a little bit in their place, Brentford, a little bit.
00:01:34
Speaker
Yeah, there was, I think it was our mate Adam Brandon who did a poll of, is it mind games or magma monosity? He didn't use that word. Nor did you, probably. After the game, you know, i.e. is it mind games, him saying, you know, that they've won it now, they're not going to blow it from here.
00:01:54
Speaker
I think it probably was a pathetic attempt at mine games, but just to look into it, Punt, 12 games left. We can effectively afford to lose six of them.
00:02:06
Speaker
It's a big ask for the teams chasing us for us to lose six games in the last 12 when we've lost five from 34, isn't it? Yeah. It would be a collapse of Wolverhampton Wanderers style proportions to blow it from here. And you just, you can't see it happening. You're bang right. I mean, Frank's comments were
00:02:26
Speaker
desperate mind games that, you know, just aren't going to work. I mean, this Norwich squad doesn't seem phased by any kind of external pressures and they know that it's all on them. They know that they're, if they turn up that they're good enough and they did turn up last night and they were more than good enough and bested at Brentford side, who I'd been really impressed with in the, in the return fixture. So no, I can't.
00:02:48
Speaker
you just can't see us imploding from here. It would be something that would have to go spectacularly wrong of like Emmy and team who are getting injured both at the same time and then perhaps a couple of suspensions or that would be the only thing that could blow it really.
00:03:04
Speaker
Yeah, I think it would need to be something along the lines of ME plus both centre backs. If we lost Gibson and Hanley, because going to your point of you can't see us blowing it from here,
Defense Against Brentford: Key Players Praised
00:03:21
Speaker
You can easily see us losing three or four games, especially if we don't need to. I mean, when we look back at the end of this 12-game run, we might have lost four of them because actually the last two, we weren't playing anywhere near as hard as the teams that we're playing around, because the teams we're playing are going to be in and around those last three.
00:03:41
Speaker
but with the way we defended last night, the way that Brentford basically looked nothing like they did earlier in the season and like the free scoring team they'd looked before didn't manage a shot on target and that was simply because we played the game last night like the old
00:03:58
Speaker
that old-fashioned kind of cliche of someone with long arms holding a little small person at arm's length as they kind of swing at them. It was just men and boys. Handley was just so many... I love it when he does his kind of look over the shoulder smirking at whichever little fly of a center forward or midfield player has tried to get round him as he's shuffled the ball out of play.
00:04:24
Speaker
The two of them, Harney and Gibson, they have to go down now as top two at best, if not top one, centre-back pairings. They're imperious together. It was interesting actually because I thought in the game at Brentford they struggled a little bit with Tony. He got some really good opportunities and
00:04:46
Speaker
They were chasing their defending a little bit and Norwich were a little bit fortunate to get away with a point in that game. So I was conscious of how they would deal with it yesterday. But I thought the way they defended the box was superb and you can nullify Bremford if you do that because Ivan Tony is such a colossal threat for them. I mean you know that they
00:05:06
Speaker
said you can ask and burn one in from 25 yards, but that's sort of high stakes at that point. So the way Norwich set up to counter Brentford's strengths, I thought, and then carrying it out was hugely promising for wherever it is they're heading, I think, because it was game management on a different level.
00:05:29
Speaker
to what we've seen, because even at Ellen Road against Leeds two seasons ago, you had a Leeds side that was already wobbling and pushing it. I suppose you could argue that Brentford are possibly in that frame themselves, but Brentford were good in the first 15 minutes. They really broke Norwich's press quite easily, and it was the most exposed Norwich have looked like at the back.
00:05:57
Speaker
for a while, but they still defended that box so well, maybe apart from Sergio Canis' one opportunity in the box. Certainly, I'm really struggling to look too far forward, I have to be honest, Jen. You can say how unlikely it is two players get injured, but it's like 13 games and anything can happen, so I don't want to even think about it. Likewise, next season, I don't know
00:06:22
Speaker
It's hard really to gauge what Grant and Ben would look like in the Premier League on a week-to-week basis, but certainly they have been hugely influential this year and they're such a lovely combination of a bit of pace, a bit of culture, both confident on the ball and able to step out. They're both strong in the air and Grant Hally reads a game
00:06:45
Speaker
Well, they're a lovely company. They're probably the most naturally complementary pairing we've had in a very long time at Centreback.
00:06:54
Speaker
Yeah, I think you're right. And it speaks to the coaching. I think we've mentioned this before, John, Teddy's emergence as being able to play passes that quite often go in the direction he intends to, when that wouldn't be the case a few years ago. Hanley, dare I say
Player Improvement and Coaching Impact
00:07:12
Speaker
it, seems to have developed a lot in that regard. I know he's had a much longer run in the game now.
00:07:17
Speaker
running the team now than he's ever had before. But even when we've seen him for six, seven games at a time, we've not seen him doing little drag backs and fakes and dummies to, you know, fool the press and enable Norwich to play out. Like, for example, last night, several times, the conference with which he's playing his football, that suggests that he's been coached up, wouldn't you say?
00:07:38
Speaker
I definitely agree with that. And I think some of it was probably born out of necessity because I think it was the Middlesbrough game and Michael will probably know better than me. But I'm sure it was the Middlesbrough game that there was a deliberate tactic to nullify Ben Gibson and to actually not give him much space and to press him really early and to stop those kind of direct balls into midfielders or attacking midfielders so that we could turn quickly and we could get in and behind teams.
00:08:05
Speaker
And teams have seen that and I think it's been noticeable that the other sides have looked to press Gibson or to make sure that he can't play those kind of considered zipped passes into midfield with the kind of frequency that he'd like to and he's very often having to go to full back.
00:08:23
Speaker
but Hanley can do it and Hanley's had to do it and I think probably Daniel Farkas had a look at that on the training pitch and tried to ensure that he is able to do it with the kind of accuracy that is required and there was I think there was a ball last night where he just kind of clipped it out to left back and and you knew this kind of went on and he'd kind of springboarded an attack off the back of that and I thought you wouldn't have seen the Grant Hanley of
00:08:47
Speaker
of 1819 or last season be able to do that, to be able to execute it. So some of it comes from confidence. So as you say, I think most of it probably comes from really good coaching and then working with him. But yeah, he's been an absolute revelation this season. And talking of revelations, I think I'd probably like to mention Kenneth the mayor as well at this point as well, because
00:09:15
Speaker
as regular listeners will know, I perhaps haven't been his biggest fan, but he's just, well, he's in the form of his Norwich career and I presume he's probably in the form of his career, full stop. That guy last night was phenomenal and has been phenomenal for quite a while now. It's just
00:09:35
Speaker
We talk about Hanley and Gibson working well together, but it's just him and Skip gel so well together. I haven't seen defensive midfield pairings or kind of midfield pairings work so well together for a significant period of time as well, and it's just kind of worry that if we don't get Oliver Skip back next season, then we're not going to see the two of them in the flesh together, which would be a great shame.
00:09:58
Speaker
Yeah, I think I was going to say it's certainly not a revelation to me. I've been standing for Kenny full stop. I couldn't understand any of the small minority of criticism or him being third, fourth choice in most people's minds. In some people's minds earlier in the season, I've fully fit Kenny playing in the middle, not in the 10, is just a sight to behold. And there was a couple of times earlier in the first half where
00:10:27
Speaker
Actually, I think it took us a while. I took our front three, if you like, a while to wake up. There was a couple of really intelligent balls. Kenny clipped through last night in the first half and they hadn't made the right run and they weren't alive to it.
00:10:42
Speaker
and yeah for 90 minutes end to end he just played like a man possessed and he was making back covering ground in just a fast way than ever and like you say skip with the 95th minute sliding block with his back you know
00:11:02
Speaker
There's almost something, when a lone player is putting his body on a line like that and when a lone player is showing the kind of conscientiousness and concentration and spirit in the dying embers, it's almost more impressive in a way when you know that he's on loan. It's just, what a loan signing. If we go on to win, especially if we go on to win the league with 104 points or something,
00:11:30
Speaker
It's got to go up there with Huckabee in terms of a transformational kind of, and memorable for maybe 10, 15, 20 years, we're going to remember, even if he doesn't, we don't get to keep him for another year's loan next year. We are all going to remember the year that, because at the moment he's on to play every game, right? So we could be talking in 10 years about, do you remember that young lad we had from Tottenham? You know, he's a skip who's now the England captain in the England team every week.
00:11:59
Speaker
He's, yeah, we had him and he bossed the championship. Yeah, no, it's insane. He was in the second flight once and he played for Norwich, you know, really impressive.
Impact of Fan Absence on Team Performance
00:12:08
Speaker
One thing that I wanted to talk about Michael, obviously there were no fans there last night.
00:12:13
Speaker
One thing that occurred to me, I realized halfway through the second half how unnervous I was. I was a bit nervous to start with because they did have a couple of early chances. And like I say, the front line seemed to be a bit slow to get started. And then we grew into the game and did enough and shut up shop. Second half, I never really felt too nervy until their 10-pot long balls into their box and their 10-pot long throws towards the end of the game.
00:12:39
Speaker
What was it, what do you think it would have been like had we had a house full? Do you think that it might have been a nervier kind of feel and might that have transferred to the players? Because they didn't seem nervous. No, yeah, I think it was the start of the second half they were a bit sloppy and I was like they need to sort of wake themselves up from here, which they did eventually and they were fine. I suppose it's
00:13:05
Speaker
It's very swings and roundabouts. I find it hard to compare football with and without fans because they're just so different. Different sports. Exactly. For all the nervousness there might have been, you could have said that the crowd would have absolutely driven them on in certain periods as well. They may not have started in those first 10, 15 minutes a bit sloppily, even though they had the best opening chance.
00:13:34
Speaker
So, you know, it's a bit of both really. And I struggle to even remember what it's like really being at football matches when there are people in there, to be honest, because it's so the impact of the end of last season was pretty horrid.
00:13:52
Speaker
it's probably helped Norwich a lot that there hasn't been any hangover other than the hangover in the players' heads this season to get themselves right and back on an even keel in the championship. I think ultimately it's probably been a beneficial exercise having fans in because they've still produced the late winners, they've still done the things where you'd have said, well, the crowd have kind of
00:14:16
Speaker
dragged them through over the line here and that and the other. Well, they've kind of managed to do that themselves. And therefore, they've had all the they've managed to be without the positive impacts. And therefore, not having the negative side of it means that they've sort of not had that dragging them down. So
00:14:32
Speaker
So I think it would have been a different game, but I struggle to kind of judge any of it on what it might've been like with fans. I did just want to say on Grant Hanley, if I may, I think that the Middlesbrough game that you mentioned, Jon, I think had Emmy Boindir not been sent off with half an hour to go, you know, there was every possibility Norwich would have grown really strong in the end of that game with 11v11 and won it.
00:14:57
Speaker
And then no one would have really been going, oh, look, all you need to do is just let Grant Hadley have the ball all the time. So I think it didn't really help Grant. I suppose that the narrative was, well, Norwich couldn't do it for 60 minutes because of how Middlesbrough did it. And after that, you know, it was it was a different game anyway. But also, I mean, he once he had his groin operation
00:15:17
Speaker
and started playing at the start of 2020. He looked a much more comfortable, dynamic defender then at Premier League level, I thought. The biggest issue was that he did his hamstring just before project restart and that was a huge blow for him and I think everyone.
00:15:37
Speaker
I honestly think there's nothing to say that maybe we wouldn't have seen a better Grant Hanley over the course of the rest of last season as well. But fair play because he's put the effort in, he's got himself sorted from a really niggling injury that I think hampered him a lot, along with a lack of game time. And certainly he's showing just what he's capable of and he's still only really at his peak as well, which is good because he seems to have been around for about 40 years.
00:16:01
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. He, I mean, he must've been what, 21, 22 in that Blackburn team, because I remember him playing for Blackburn and thinking he looked like a player. And, you know, I think he probably was, he probably looked 34 when he was a toddler. Um, but he's trimmer. I mean, obviously you're seeing him in, in, in real life. I was wearing, seeing him on, on the screens at the moment. He, he, he looks trimmer. Does that, does that carry out to your life? Yeah.
00:16:26
Speaker
I think so. I do think he's more mobile now whether he's mobile enough for when he comes up against Mason Greenwood and whoever then we'll find out hopefully next year. I think they all look in peak physical condition to be honest and actually now that everyone's
00:16:46
Speaker
And I did write this at the time. They got through all of their injury issues. And what that did was give a lot of players a sort of a three-week break. And it wasn't ideal because Norwich were screwed in terms of their options, but they kind of got through it. And actually now they are in a really good fitness position. Everyone's kind of had a break. They've all broken down, but then built themselves back up fitness-wise. And the squad is in really good health. And I think
00:17:09
Speaker
I think Kenny McLean said to me, or maybe Chris Gorham last night, that they feel they're the fittest team in the division.
Squad Depth and Handling Injuries
00:17:16
Speaker
And you'd have to say that the strength that they're generally finishing games, they don't really look physically caught out by anyone, which again, is really promising.
00:17:24
Speaker
Kenny's engine is out of this world and the way he flies about and stands up and he's almost biletic in the way he covers the midfield area. Last night we didn't have Campwell and I was a bit worried after the weekend
00:17:43
Speaker
I felt that Onel was a bit of a weak link. I mean, he carries such an attacking threat when he's on, obviously with the pace and the directness that no one really else has in the squad really.
00:17:59
Speaker
And I was really heartened to see that some of that rust, he's not played much football, has he, in the last 18 months, last year, sorry. And some of that rust seemed to have been knocked off. I thought he was far more effective last night. Still not back to his best, but I think we missed camp well less than we did against Wickham, do you think, Jon? Yeah.
00:18:22
Speaker
I kind of be inclined to agree that we missed count well less than against Wiccan, but I think you're probably, in my mind anyway, I think you're doing Hernandez a disservice, you know, for his performance at the weekend. And I think maybe the fact that, you know, he wasn't quite at it was amplified by the fact that he missed a couple of really presentable chances that you'd have expected, you know, most players to take in his position. And it would have put us out of sight in terms of the fixture. And, you know, there wouldn't have been any kind of
00:18:51
Speaker
late nerves which there wasn't too many but you know whenever you're you're only one goal to the good going into the dynamics of a game you know it can be an issue um but no i thought he was he was okay at wickham and he carried enough threat for me and he was he was kind of even if tod had been um available for selection there was probably an argument that that he should have retained his place um but at the same time tod's been unbelievable over the last kind of month or so and and we talked about it last time on on the pod i think some of it is just
00:19:21
Speaker
his confidence and him raising his levels because Emmy Wendia, you know, kind of raises everyone's levels. Some of it I think is the fact that he kind of realizes that he needs to work a little bit harder to be at Emmy's level as well. And he kind of shows for the ball a lot more than he was doing earlier in the season. And, you know, he's, he's way more effective in terms of his overall play, I think, because there's just, there's a bit of an extra zip to him. And I don't know whether that comes from,
00:19:45
Speaker
from confidence or whatever it is, but he's been terrific. It's a nice dilemma for Daniel Farker probably to have for this weekend's fixture because if he goes and drops Hernandez now, and we're working on the assumption that Kentwell will be fit for the weekend,
00:20:03
Speaker
And Anders, I think, would have every right to be really, really aggrieved because he's just been part of probably the most controlled and complete team performance that we've put in this season. So, you know, it's testament to him that he was part of that. But it's also a testament to the squad that we've built. And, you know, Michael, you've just talked about players being able to have three-week breaks. And although we were down to the bare bones,
00:20:30
Speaker
and there wasn't much wriggle room in terms of what we did. We could put out an 11, which was essentially pretty much all players who've been there and done it in the championship before. Brentford, they've had their injury woes, and I think that's contributed to
00:20:45
Speaker
to their recent loss of form and actually probably a lot of why they were less effective I think last night than perhaps in the return fixture was their wide players I mean I think Josh Silver was probably their best player for me when we played them away you know and obviously he was absent you've got Rico Henry who you know we're kind of repeatedly told is probably one of their most effective players in terms of the way they play
00:21:09
Speaker
So they're less able to deal with those injury crises whereas actually Norwich now and it is kind of all power to Stuart Weber really that they had the foresight to assemble a squad like this because they knew it was going to be a relentless fixture schedule and there were going to be injuries and there was probably going to be Covid outbreaks in the squad and actually it's paying dividends now.
Competitive League Standings: Focus on Rivals
00:21:33
Speaker
I think there's been a lot said about the togetherness and the coaching from the sidelines, you know, the pundits, the lads like you, Michael, that have been allowed to be in and around the stadium. We were talking last night about what wasn't necessarily picked up on the Sky cameras or the iFollow coverage, the, you know, Hugo and Teddy stalking the touchline, you know, roaring the team on and encouraging throughout. And I think that is helped by the fact that because of COVID and injuries,
00:22:03
Speaker
almost everyone in the squad has had solid minutes this season, you know, either two or three starts in a row here or some solid kind of 30-minute sub appearances there because of other people not being available or what have you. And I think you're completely right, Jon. There is no way barring injury or illness that the ONL won't start. He doesn't change a winning team. He never has done. You know, he won't do. And I actually think those two
00:22:30
Speaker
chances you've talked about weren't oh no should really be scoring them it was a fully fit fully up to speed and in rhythm oh no doesn't try and shoot especially the second one he rolls Teemo in for tapping you know that they both times he took on shots and and i think that's when i when i we've seen this before when oh no is getting back into the team
00:22:53
Speaker
from an injury, he tries to do a little bit too much at the end of his runs, sort of the chemi factor, if you like, where really a simple layoff to a teammate and all of a sudden it's an incredible piece of wing players opposed to a disappointing chance that was actually really difficult to squeeze through a crowd of bodies who have moved towards him because he's got on this run where he's cut across the edge of the box, which he does quite a lot.
00:23:16
Speaker
But the whole point is, well, well done. You've attracted three or four people to close you down, which means Teemu or Emi or whoever is now screaming for it and stood in space. So try and thread that pass. Michael, I want to draw your attention to the running. There's 12 games left, and looking at the different options that we've got available fixture-wise, I'm going to look at the three teams directly beneath Norwich at the moment to see whether or not a 10-point cushion is going to be enough.
00:23:44
Speaker
which sounds like a bit of a mental sentence anyway, but let's try and count as few chickens as we can. I actually think Watford have got the hardest run in. Again, it's on paper, but at this stage of the season, paper actually does tend to mean something because you don't tend to be in the wrong position in the table after this many games. It's not like we're making these predictions in the first week.
00:24:04
Speaker
But, you know, they finish with Norwich, Brentford and Swansea in their last four. That's not, you know, let's have it right. They're going to need points right up to the end. Then, you know, they're not going to be in a position of being 10 points clear or whatever by the end. They have Reading just before that as well. Borough, who are obviously very, very challenging. And, you know, we know that other people like Wotherham and Luton can have a performance on their day, but, you know, let's just focus on the teams who we know are up there and going to be fighting for something.
00:24:33
Speaker
Um, they've got to play Cardiff in two games as well. And Cardiff effectively Real Madrid at this point. Um, so, um, Watford's running looks really tricky. Um, looking at Swansea, I would then say that they've got the second most challenging one. Again, they play Reading. Obviously they've got that Watford, Watford fixture on the, um, on the last game of the season, which, you know, wouldn't it be, it'd be nice to be tuning into that as a neutral with nothing to play for. And that'd be a kind of decisive, you know, second versus third. That'd be a really exciting game to watch.
00:25:03
Speaker
and then they've also got the steam train that is Cardiff, they've also got Bournemouth in a couple of games, so that's a tricky one. Brentford then is, again on paper, slightly easier, they've got Bournemouth, they've got Watford and they've got Cardiff.
00:25:18
Speaker
But other than that, it's similar to Norridge's in a way in that they've got Blackburn, Forest, Derby, Huddersfield, Preston, Millwall. These are all teams that, other than Millwall, they're all teams that not Norridge have got. So mostly mid table fair that are not going up or down. So with that in mind, let's try and be as cup half empty and try not to kind of go too soon with this.
00:25:44
Speaker
Where can it all go wrong for Norwich, aside from catastrophic injury crisis?
Promotion Prospects and Challenges Ahead
00:25:50
Speaker
Where in that final run-in do you think we could effectively have a four-game lead snatched away from us? Well, I think I'm reasonably confident about the Luton game because I think Norwich owe them one. So the idea of them being complacent against Liverpool and Luton is unlikely. So I think once you get after that,
00:26:10
Speaker
It is like, well, our Sheffield Wednesday are going to be windless under Darren Moore. It's going to be between their own ears really at that point. They've got, I mean, forest away against Chris Houghton. I mean, that's going to be tight and that was awkward. I think a lot of the time where people have been a bit worried about Norwich's results recently,
00:26:35
Speaker
I think people have tended to forget that the fixtures against those teams earlier in the season were just as sticky. I mean, the game at Middlesbrough was decided by a penalty and Norwich could have easily have been behind to a penalty before that. Norwich drew 0-0 with Millwall at home.
00:26:51
Speaker
It was a pretty much identical game, really, at the den. Only Millwall were a bit stronger in the last 10 minutes at home, which you'd probably expect. So I think, and obviously they came during the blip, as it's now being referred to, but they weren't particularly different fixtures to game earlier in the season. So I think going to Preston over Easter, I would imagine Norwich will hopefully be pretty close to 80 points, and then Daniel Farka can concede that Norwich will be in the playoffs.
00:27:20
Speaker
come that point. And they've got, I think it's Huddersfield at home. I mean, Norwich have got a potentially easy running, let's be honest, in terms of their remaining fixtures. They do play Bournemouth and Watford in the space of four days, both at Carrow Road in the middle of April. So, you know,
00:27:41
Speaker
Much in the way that I looked at the Brentford game and thought, I want you to put to bed a team that's really up there this season. Those two games against the two teams who are still as strong as anyone I've seen Norwich play this season, and obviously were relegated alongside them, that they're going to be fascinating games regardless of where Norwich are. And I think also we're all very happy that it's a 10 point gap. But the reality is, if Swansea keep getting penalties like they did last night, you know, they are only five points behind if they win their two games in hand.
00:28:13
Speaker
And Watford seem to be in a place now where they will just keep going. I don't know why I think that, because they've been so inconsistent, but I can just see them sort of getting themselves together. I agree. I think Watford are the most likely to come up second. I worry a bit about Brentford, I must admit, because at this point, as you say, they've got a few injuries. I agree with you, I think, John. It was said that Josh De Silva, I think, is one of the best players in the division, actually.
00:28:40
Speaker
And I worry that they're going to start remembering what happened last year. And whereas Norwich can only remember going and winning it two years ago, Brentwood have got a lot tougher memories to deal with in that regard and what Fadara are a strong side. So I think what I would like is just Norwich to keep going, keep their focus because I do believe they've got the gears and the confidence and the quality and the squad depth. They literally have everything to keep doing what they're doing as long as they keep their heads.
00:29:10
Speaker
And then it should really come down to two or three teams battling it off, battling between themselves to finish behind them. And that's always a fun thing to watch. So that's probably the best case scenario. Not going to worry about the worst.
00:29:22
Speaker
Well, if we match the results, which is always a good way to think about it when you've got a bit of a cushion, let's give Swansea those two games in hand and they win them both, which they haven't been doing previously. Brentford won some games in hand and then promptly had a much bigger blip than our blip, not all blips are created equal.
00:29:49
Speaker
We played Bournemouth and Watford, that kind of double whammy. I think that it will be one of those two games in which we clinch the promotion because if we just match the chasing pack for the remainder of
00:30:05
Speaker
the games up to that point so effectively that's with the Bournemouth game is five games to go so that effectively means over the next seven games if we within a point or two here or there basically just match the results of the chasing pack of three
00:30:20
Speaker
we're going to need maybe one win or maybe a couple of draws at that point in order to see it automatic. Okay, the title might come a week or two later, depending on what happens with those games in hands with Swansea. But even if we bear in mind that really, if we think about it, it's only third that we need to finish above. Therefore, it is a 10-point gap. It's not a five-point gap because even if Swansea do win their two games in hand, the best of the rest is 10 points, right?
00:30:49
Speaker
So really for promotion, I think therefore if you take away the three games we can afford to lose, Barnsley, Redding, QPR, last three games of the season, in theory we therefore just need to match results for the next seven or eight games and then a draw against Bournemouth, a draw against Watford, maybe where we clinch it. And I actually am quite bullish with the run we've got and I think we will clinch it by beating Bournemouth at home. Where do you think we will clinch it and why? Or do you think we'll fuck it up, punt?
00:31:20
Speaker
No, we're not fucking this up. I mean, there's no doubt in my mind that Norwich, and I had some doubt in my mind, probably a couple of podcasts ago, but there's no doubt in my mind now with the phenomenal run of form that we're on that you didn't. Well done.
00:31:35
Speaker
it'll be interesting to see how it pans out because the next, what, five, six, you know, kind of maybe even seven games are against teams that are kind of either ensconced safely in mid-table or are kind of on the periphery of a relegation battle. And they're the kind of teams, I guess, that you probably want to play because they're going to be slightly less bothered about their positions at the moment. So it is about Norwich keeping their heads. I genuinely think
00:32:03
Speaker
you know we could quite easily go and make this this six game winning run a a nine or a ten game winning run or we could continue it into you know kind of a really long unbeaten run and if we do that then it's going to be i think you're probably right in terms of ballpark promotion you might be looking at something like
00:32:22
Speaker
at the Watford game because then that's three games left. And beyond that- Well, if it was the Watford game, mate, then that means we've basically conceded three points or four points over the next, yeah, it basically means that we will drop by four points over the next seven games, we'll be caught by four points. Well, there'll be three games left there then. So nine points teams could catch us. So yeah, so we're 10 clear at the moment.
00:32:51
Speaker
Yeah, I think around about then would probably be about right because Norwich don't generally like to make things really, really simple. There'll be a bump in the road that we don't foresee. But yeah, so I'm going to go for Watford.
00:33:07
Speaker
Yeah, so I've said Bournemouth, you've said Watford. I think we will lose a couple of games in this next kind of six or seven. But the point is, I also think so will Swansea, Brentford and Watford. I don't think anyone is doing seven wins on the bounce from here to those games in April. So I've gone Bournemouth, you've gone Watford, John, what do you reckon, Michael?
00:33:30
Speaker
Oh, it's not being recorded or anything. I don't really, I don't care. Am I allowed to say that? I don't. Good Friday. Is that even possible? That's not even possible, is it? But, you know, it's a nice day. I'm just conscious of, you know, you throw out, oh, they might lose a game here and a game there. But at this stage of the season, if you are going to have a wobble, it will be one game and then a domino effect. And so I think that
00:33:58
Speaker
As plain sailing as things maybe feel at the moment, it doesn't take a lot for psychology and the championship to start playing funny games. You've gone Preston on Good Friday. I don't think that's mathematically possible, to be honest.
00:34:13
Speaker
Well, it depends on the other results. I mean, if we were to win the next four in a row and make it a 10-game winning streak... We'd be on 85 points, so you'd pretty much be there, wouldn't you? Yeah. Without being mathematically there. I just like the idea of it being Good Friday, that's it, literally. Yeah, no, that would be excellent. Yeah, so if we won that, that would then be 15 points.
00:34:35
Speaker
So 15 points from, what are we on now? 78. 88? Yeah, 88. You basically need, we would need two points probably to be mathematical from the next however many games, the next seven games.
00:34:50
Speaker
Um, and again, that's based on the others all winning all of those games as well, which I just fundamentally don't think you're going to have because it never happens. You don't get the three or four teams winning seven in a row. You know, one or two goes on a little run here and there, just as it has been all season. But the one thing, the one thing that makes me, the one thing that I'm setting up and tempting fate, although I'm not because we've already talked about potential twisted fates, but
00:35:15
Speaker
There's just something about this city team and the very very very business like way that we have done one goal wins here one goal wins there and yes there's been a lot of one goal wins but there's not been that many one goal wins really has been quite a few like last night.
00:35:33
Speaker
Genuinely could have got five goals last night Genuinely could have done like there was so many good shot me poo poo key again He could have had back-to-back hat tricks in the last two games easily and I just think that this might be a season where they they actually kind of do do it the simple way they they you know because I can't
00:35:53
Speaker
I can't see us going on the kind of four or five game losing streak with the squad, with the experience that we've got, because if we did have a couple of injuries, unless it was literally like a, unless Hanley and Gibson run into each other and break each other's leg,
00:36:11
Speaker
I'd be comfy if Zimmerman had to play the last seven games. I'd be comfy if Hugel had to deputize for Pookie for the last... Because they've all had minutes. They've all scored. If that's their job, they've all... If Rupp had to come in for McLean or Skip for the last few games, yeah, that would be a massive downgrade, but he still played loads of minutes and is a... Oh, come on, against the competitor. Anyone compared to those two is a massive downgrade. But the point is, I think the rest of the team has got enough.
00:36:38
Speaker
So I just, you know, we're all barring unbelievable run of bad luck and Swansea getting penalties like they did last night every time. You know, even if, even if Swansea won every game for the rest of the season, I can't see them catching five, but I don't think we're going to drop another five points. I just don't think we are.
00:36:56
Speaker
which is a nice place to be in. So, Michael, thank you so much for spending the time looking back on Brintford and looking ahead to the running. My pleasure. Thanks, guys. Do it again, hopefully. Yes, and, Punt, thank you so much for committing to it being Watford when we see it. We'll see who was closest. You're being held to the fact that you think it's going to be Preston on Good Friday, Michael. And what a Good Friday it will be. It certainly will be. We will catch you again very, very soon. Thanks for listening. Enjoy the game against Luton, and mind how you go.