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WCAD #16: Best World Cup Group Stage Ever?
292 Plays2 years ago
Austin and Amit can't believe that they just witnessed another insane World Cup day, one that featured A late South Korea rally to please their manager in the stands and Vincent Aboubakar going full after dark. Plus the guys look at the big picture state of this World Cup and preview tomorrow's USA-Netherlands and Argentina-Australia matches.
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Transcript
Thrills of the Final Group Stage Day
00:00:01
Speaker
We told you yesterday that we weren't sure if the last day of group stage action could live up to everything we've seen so far. I mean, it did. It somehow did. We had great action yet again for the third consecutive day. Insanity. FIFA, take notes. We're not going to do the whole diatribe here. It can be done elsewhere. It will be done elsewhere. You cannot sacrifice four team groups
00:00:27
Speaker
You cannot sacrifice the double-barreled action. This was awesome. It delivered again.
South Korea's Triumph
00:00:33
Speaker
South Korea, what a moment. This game, Serbia, Switzerland. Didn't have the amazing ending, but it was awesome anyway. Five sickles.
00:00:43
Speaker
Ah, it's such a good product. I know. It can't be topped. Let's dive right into it. This is the World Cup After Dark podcast. I'm Austin Miller. He's a bit malloc. We're gonna break down the final day of Group Stage action. We're gonna preview what's to come tomorrow because both the US and Argentina are in action.
Uruguay's Missed Opportunities
00:00:58
Speaker
I mean, South Korea, on yesterday's show, we said that they had a chance to beat a rotated, unmotivated Portugal team and see what happens in the other game. And that's exactly what happened. A 2-1 win for South Korea. Uruguay only beat Ghana 2-0.
00:01:12
Speaker
insane, insane games, again, gonna win a penalty and then miss it against Uruguay. They had 12 years of it for this exact penalty and what they do, they missed it again. Yeah, you would think in all that time plotting revenge, you know, they did lose in 2010 to shootout. You'd think they'd be practicing them. Maybe, maybe it was the Uruguay scuffs of the penalty spot. Who's to say? But, uh,
00:01:37
Speaker
You gotta lift that thing. Eh, from there though, that was their chance. Uruguay played.
00:01:43
Speaker
very well when they had their best attacking players from the start. De Arasqueda was so good, played some really good balls, got a really good one to Luis Suarez, the first goal from Ghana, very bad, very bad defense. How many different defensive errors? Both centers got charged with an error for letting the ball go through to Luis Suarez. The goalkeeper can be charged for the third error for not making a better save on a Luis Suarez shot. And then the other defender who let Arasqueda just run by him to get to the rebound.
00:02:11
Speaker
Four different errors. I'm like, I'll start it also from just giving the ball away extremely cheaply in the midfield. Yep.
00:02:22
Speaker
Yeah, it's bad from Ghana defensively. Great goal from the Uruguayans for the second. And now let's shift over and come back to Uruguay in a second because we have to talk about what was happening in Korea and Portugal. The Portuguese scored early in this game. And then from there, they kind of just chucked it into second gear and said, let's see what happens. South Korea scored to equalize to make it 1-1. Portugal eventually hauled off a distraught Cristiano Ronaldo who wasted a chance to pad his World Cup stats.
00:02:51
Speaker
And then Korea found their way into this game in a perfectly timed run. And for the first time this tournament, we saw elite Seon Hun Min,
Son Heung-min's Heroic Moment
00:03:00
Speaker
right? That's what happened on this play that led to the Korean second goal. Totally. We had said, you know, South Korea's best chance is their best player changing the match with one play, one shot. In this case, it was the pass. He picks it up, dribbles 70, 80 yards against a stretched defense. And then credit to Huang Hee Chan.
00:03:21
Speaker
who sprinted also 80 yards himself to get available and then the pass is sublime, right? He had just finished the sprint, he stops, he mags the defender, times the run perfectly so that Chon is on sides, puts it just delicately into the open space and a very good finish. Scenes, euphoria, jubilation, but the job wasn't done because there was still
00:03:44
Speaker
10-ish minutes for Uruguay to get the third and send themselves through and
Stoppage Time Drama
00:03:49
Speaker
they couldn't. Right, it was really weird because there was a huge difference in first half stoppage times in these games and they allowed the Portugal Korea match to start so far ahead of the Uruguay match. There was like seven minutes of differential and then there was all the stoppage time on it. We'll get to that in a second.
00:04:05
Speaker
Were you petrified that that South Korea goal was coming back for offside? That was my initial reaction was, oh, there's no way he's onside. He was so open. There's no way he timed that run perfectly. It was so fast in real time. It was hard to tell. And we didn't get the replay for a while. So, yeah, I was scared, but it was perfect at times. Yeah, it just was like, oh, there's there's we've said this before, not on this podcast, but just to each other. There's a small concession that if you score a sick enough goal, the offside rules shouldn't matter.
00:04:35
Speaker
this would have been one of them, but that's okay. It counted. So that put Korea through tentatively. And now we shift back to what was happening between Uruguay and Ghana. Uruguay at 2-0 kind of fell back into a defensive shell, and crucially, I'm not faulting the fact that they started to play defensive at 2-0. That's okay, I understand that. They took off those attacking players who made them so good. Georgi Ndeiraskayeta, who was the man talked about so much from Uruguay in this tournament,
00:05:05
Speaker
was brought off. They also took off Luis Suarez and Darwin Nunez. That left them with Edinson Cavani up front in a mishmash of players in the midfield. Their best attacking player was probably Nicolas de la Cruz. When Korea scored the goal to take the lead, Uruguay then now need to go score again. They're going out despite the 2-0 win. And also in this moment, Ghana are two goals away from going through themselves, that they can somehow haul themselves back in it and draw the match.
Uruguay's Tactical Missteps
00:05:31
Speaker
And it was crazy because Uduwa made that decision and now, oh no, we have to go score, we have to go score. I think that was a big mistake by Diego Alonso. I don't fault him for trying to protect the 2-0 result, but I think he did it too early, especially with the difference between the two games. You have to know that you're going to have time to adjust.
00:05:50
Speaker
And so he could have brought those guys off after it was clear that South Korea wasn't going to win or didn't win the game. Instead, he did it too soon. He had to adjust. He didn't have the players to do it. But they still had a couple of penalty shouts to try and get the goal that would have led them to 3-0. They did. They did.
00:06:09
Speaker
I think maybe the first one has a better chance because Nunez is in on the left side of goal and just gets chopped. But the toe is wrapped around and the ref does the ball symbol. And I think it was a little more body than ball on the replay. I understand. You know, it would have been
00:06:30
Speaker
middle of the, it's a toss up, but I probably thought Penn on that one. The second one is a bit of a flop from Cavani, but it's not that far off from the penalty he gave to Ghana. So I get why Uruguay feel hard done. And after the match, of course, they're going to let the referee know, hey, you did a bad job, bud.
00:06:54
Speaker
Classic go to wine style surrounding the ref FIFA. Definitely not prepared for that. Where's your riot police guys? We need to get that riff off the pitch as fast as possible. I think my feeling is I wouldn't give the Kavani play. He's very clearly digging for contact. Like it's a super intelligent move. And it's the type of thing that an attacking player with that much experience does, but he leaves his leg out. He's looking for the contact to come and when it does, he goes down.
00:07:19
Speaker
Not right. I'm with you. I think the Nunez one was much more. And this ending was crazy. It was about as end to end as you can get there once Uruguay needed that third goal. And I'm with you that Diego Alonso, you can play defensive, you can sub on legs, but you needed de Arasqueto on the field.
00:07:41
Speaker
And from there, it was just madness. And there were chances flying in thick and fast. And then at some point, Ghana was like, this is now our biggest task. We know we're not getting to, but we sure are not letting Uruguay through. And they played for a lot of pride and credit to them. And a couple of big saves from the goalkeeper. A couple of, yeah, very big saves. I just think for Uruguay,
00:08:09
Speaker
They won by two. It was a result that heading into the day you probably thought was enough.
00:08:15
Speaker
But from the start, Diego Alonso had kind of left his team too little too late. They needed more against South Korea. This is a theme we've been talking about. That's the weakest team in the group we thought. They didn't end up being that way, but go attack them. And then they were too slow against Portugal. And here he took them off. They didn't spend enough minutes with their best players in their best configuration. So all of that's to say they deserve kind of to go out. They were just a little slow.
00:08:45
Speaker
to this point, our closing rant yesterday was exactly on how you manage the double barrel tactics because it's a layer on layer and you can get it wrong and I think they got it wrong today. You have to know that that result could have changed, that you may need to go back and get it and they seemed like they were
00:09:06
Speaker
either not aware or not ready for that possibility. And they did get chances, but they could have done more. Yeah. And I think that's a lack of preparation, right? Like you need to have somebody you trust that's watching that game and telling you, hey, Korea looks much more likely here. We need to be prepared for the fact that they might score.
00:09:24
Speaker
It wasn't the case. Korea's goal didn't come out of nowhere. They were creating chances. They were obviously taking the initiative and Portugal did not look like a team that was particularly plus either way, right? Like it was a lot like Spain yesterday. They were attempting to score, but they certainly weren't going all out for it. That cost them. I also thought Ghana was kind of odd down the stretch. I think once Uruguay opened up looking for that third goal,
00:09:47
Speaker
they should have been a lot more clinical because there was a chance to score one, break through to go in hearts and then go get another one and somehow sneak through. The penalty was also bad. I think God, I could have had a better day than they did. Right. I think the overarching narrative and sentiment among Ghanaian fans will be, yeah, not revenge, but some sort of joy for preventing their arch rivals for getting through.
00:10:14
Speaker
But they were good enough in these three games to have gone through. They had enough attacking talent. Yeah, they didn't have a great defense. But a bunch of teams in this tournament had a similar team build to them. They could have. And this group was really fun. And South Korea, they go through for, I think, deservedly for attacking Portugal. And I know they didn't get the result against Ghana, but those two goals mattered. And they went after it.
00:10:44
Speaker
So again, this is one where maybe the order of the games could have helped Uruguay and hurt South Korea. Of course, they benefited from getting rotated in Portugal, but they still had to go attack and win that game. And Uruguay did the least against Portugal until it was too late. So, yeah, I'm happy for Korea. I think they deserve it. I'm really happy for Sun Hyung Min, who you could tell it means a lot to him. And there's a lot of burden on that shirt.
00:11:12
Speaker
I'm happy for all the teams that got through almost all of them, but not Poland, not Portugal really either. They're good content. So it's not that you always get rewarded for doing attacking soccer or having the right approach. That's not how soccer works. But when it works out like this, it did feel like everyone came away a little bit satisfied.
00:11:33
Speaker
Yeah, it was great drama as well. Like we said, it was fantastic. Switching to the other group, Amit, did we have the after dark moment of this World Cup?
Abubakar's Dramatic Highlight
00:11:43
Speaker
And did it come courtesy of Vincent Abubakar, who scored a go-ahead goal for Cameroon against Brazil? A massive, massive moment.
00:11:50
Speaker
And then on a yellow card, remove his shirt to get sent off in a game where Cameron needed to go get another goal to protect themselves that if the other match had drawn, they could have potentially gone through. And had they gone through, he would have been suspended for the round of 16. It was absolute madness. I respect the bit. I respect the commitment to celebrating a goal. He scored three in this World Cup. Three? I think he scored three. Maybe he only scored two. I don't know. Regardless,
00:12:18
Speaker
You just can't do that in that moment. And it was such an after dark moment. And we haven't even gotten to the Serbia Switzerland game. But talk quickly about it. No, it was. We this podcast obviously is called World Cup After Dark. We used to run a show way back called Sports Voice After Dark, which is just celebrating this kind of stuff.
00:12:36
Speaker
the weird the wacky and sure everyone likes the weird and the wacky but this exact kind of like surreal what are you doing but I respect it moment because of course you just scored against Brazil and you're the Cameroonian striker and you've been talking a big game all tournament he did it it was awesome go run to the corner but then knowingly or not he had a yellow card and he gets set off and it they needed another goal like you said oh man if
00:13:04
Speaker
If we had SportsWiseAfterDark still running now, immediate entry for athlete of the year. This was an all-time moment. Until Take It Otherwise, he will be the World Cup After Dark moment of the tournament. So good. And hey, good for Cameroon, right? They actually could have done more. And maybe I can see them feeling like they deserved or should have done more. But this is still a great result for them despite not going through.
00:13:33
Speaker
Had they defended better against Serbia, this might be a different story, right? Like this is a fantastic result. Look, they benefited from a rotated Brazil that wasn't firing on all cylinders, but that's been the story of these third day matches. You take advantage of the team that rotates. That's part of the game, right? So it's a great result for Cameroon. I think quickly on Brazil, they rotated everybody that they could. You know, Pumas, midfielder, Danny Alves started right back. They got everybody on the pitch. I think they would have liked to have been a bit better. I thought Gabrielle Martinelli was really good in this game.
00:14:03
Speaker
not concerned about this result for Brazil. They still won the group. But this wasn't great. I think they would have liked to have won this match. And they probably had the talent out there that should have won it. I agree with you. It wasn't their best performance. But we said before this game yesterday, no one plays three clean games, not France, not Brazil. We just saw, not Spain, not Argentina. So
00:14:35
Speaker
Nobody won all three of their group stage matches, which is insane. Not a single team went three of three in wins in this World Cup so far. All right, Serbia, Switzerland, this was the game that ended up mattering.
Switzerland's Tense Victory
00:14:45
Speaker
Bad defending, just a clinic of bad defending and a clinic of great goals. It kind of petered out at the end. There wasn't a great moment in this game. Switzerland scored the winning goal early in the second half, but this game was what we expected it to be. High level, high tension, the most hard fought game of this World Cup so far.
00:14:52
Speaker
It's okay to just go through the motions a little bit. I have no doubt, no one has any doubt that they'll be up once the game starts.
00:15:05
Speaker
certainly the game that brought the most amount of afters in certain moments. Switzerland deserving of going through here for you? Of course they are. They, in a game between two teams with good offenses, good attacks, and not so great defending, they had the slightly better of it in both, right?
00:15:26
Speaker
Their three goals were very well worked and they did enough. They had enough legs that at the end of the day, Serbia's attacking talent was as good as I thought. I had picked them here slightly as an underdog, but they did not have enough legs to consistently create. And that's what you saw after the 60th minute.
00:15:45
Speaker
They needed the third. They needed two, really. And they couldn't really get enough chances consistently because they're not that fast. And Switzerland were dangerous on the counter. But five goals were scored. They were all well-worked. And Switzerland had three of them. It kind of comes down to they were just better in more moments. And Serbia's two goals were really good, right? They were very good. Incredibly good goals. That third Switzerland goal, I have to say,
00:16:14
Speaker
takes the, the cake for, I think the most gorgeous team play of the tournament. Yeah. Right. The ball gets recycled to Shaqiri who side note, unfortunately, I will be issuing an apology to Zurnar Shaqiri. Not that anything I said earlier was wrong, but you did it. You were a game changing X factor player in the world cup. Congrats on resting those legs in August in the heat.
00:16:40
Speaker
still only still only made it 65 minutes. Yeah, but that's okay. But he was good. So the ball comes to him, he hits a delightful chip over the top, and then it's back healed into the path of the striker for a one time finish. That's sumptuous stuff. But yeah, every goal in this was good.
00:16:59
Speaker
Switzerland were good value and it wasn't the prettiest the whole way through. They're not anything special. I think they are right in the middle of boring European team, but their attacking soccer was very good and much more better than other boring European teams.
00:17:17
Speaker
Yeah. And at the end of the day, Serbia just didn't defend well enough to go through in this group. Like that's the story. They gave up three goals against Cameroon. They blew a three, one lead against Cameron. They gave up three goals against Switzerland. They blew a two, one lead against Switzerland, right? Like at the end of the day, when you get into leading positions at the world cup, you have to be able to finish off those results. That I think is the
00:17:40
Speaker
the honestly the best way to look at it. Because yeah, if any other team said they were leading in two games at the World Cup, you expect six points, four is disappointing to get zero from those situations. One, sorry, the tie with Cameron. To get one from that situation is a failure. So they'll have a lot of regret. It's definitely not like overall institutional disappointment in the likes of Denmark or Belgium.
00:18:06
Speaker
But they'll feel that, yeah, you're right. They attacked well enough to get out of this group. And they did not defend well enough to get out of this group. And that's the story. All right. We've not seen every World Cup.
Was This the Best Group Stage?
00:18:20
Speaker
You weren't there in 1930. You weren't there in 1950 either. Was this the best World Cup group stage you could remember? Yeah, my brain can go back vaguely to 2006. I was pretty young. So I don't remember a ton. But I remember since then,
00:18:36
Speaker
But yes, this format has been the same the whole time. Yeah. Or at least in the last stretch, it's been pretty unchanged. But I think the final day has really improved. Delivered. Because we've talked about this post-analytical thing, which I think is real. Quick side note on that. And this is going to sound like me humble bragging.
00:19:03
Speaker
But I was just on a I did a radio hit with Sirius XM FC in the United States. I almost used your post analytical state of U.S. international soccer. And then I remember that the listeners of Sirius XM FC are not necessarily the listeners of the World Cup after dark podcast. So we need to get that term into the mainstream more so I can drop it. I think people that talk about soccer a lot are aware of this. Right. It's not like XG has changed the sport. It has. And that came around the mid 2010s.
00:19:32
Speaker
And then 2018, you saw the start of international soccer being played where everyone had the idea of what to do to get through. And this World Cup, outside of Qatar, every team more or less gave themselves as good of a chance as they could to win. Like, I'm not saying every team performed. They obviously didn't. Not every team executed, but nowadays, like,
00:19:58
Speaker
It's very clear how to succeed with what type of team you have at the World Cup. The cheat sheet is there. There's no excuse to be very open if that's not what it calls for.
00:20:12
Speaker
there's no excuse to get tossed out early. If there's somehow a chance, right, you can play to your result on the final day. So I mean, for two minutes, Costa Rica, we're going through on the final day, right? So I'm not saying chaos hasn't happened before. And this is actually, we're now in a state where the good teams want to limit chaos. But what we got was two very cagey rounds of soccer.
00:20:36
Speaker
where the good teams didn't have to get into full gear but were that good and the bad teams wanted to limit damage and some teams picked their spots but at the end of day two we saw some stuff but what it really led to was day three where everyone, almost everyone had to come play except for two teams that were done and one of them still came and played and a few teams that were through already because they were good right the good teams did it and then what we got was the result of that
00:21:06
Speaker
you, we waited, we waited, and then it's like, okay, now this, you can't wait anymore. You have to go play. And it was awesome. And I think that's, that was a long way of answering. That's what made this final round of games so awesome. It was definitely the best in my memory. And it, yeah.
00:21:26
Speaker
potentially could be the best for a while if the World Cup talent is diluted, even if the four team groups are capped. We could not have that. So really special that we got to watch it. And looking at the field, a lot of the best teams were in, except for maybe Belgium, but then we got a lot of new, exciting teams, new blood into this round of 16. This was an awesome group stage.
00:21:51
Speaker
Oh, I just saw on my TV and it's in Kavadi knocked over the var monitor as he was walking off the pitch. Sorry. I know that we already talked about that game, but I just had to bring that up. But as he's walking off the pitch, he walks by the var monitor and he's just like, boom, and he knocks it over. Great moment. A couple of things to what you said there. I think what we're seeing is,
00:22:11
Speaker
The gap maybe has never been bigger to the truly elite international teams and everybody else. But I think the gap between everybody else is smaller, right? Like it's- I'm with you. Yeah. That's the word I was looking for.
00:22:27
Speaker
Because as we've seen at this tournament, right? Like we have a round of 16 that if I'm not mistaken, and again, should have done my research before the podcast, but that's not our vibes.
Diverse Round of 16
00:22:36
Speaker
I'm pretty sure we have eight European teams and eight non-European teams in the round of 16. And that's a really good number. Every confederation is represented.
00:22:46
Speaker
Asia have three teams, Africa have two, Conable have two, and then CONCACAF got one. So doing that math, that's eight, and then there's the eight UEFA teams. That is, I think, a pretty good picture of where world football is at in that, yes, the best of the best are still really, really good.
00:23:04
Speaker
But the gap between a team like Belgium and Canada is not nearly as big as it would have been 10 years agreed. And I'm specifically looking at Japan and Morocco, who we talked about yesterday to new dark, not dark, dark horse. We don't need to use that term anymore at this point in the tournament.
00:23:24
Speaker
two teams that we were very impressed by, and maybe we were impressed because of their confederation, but on talent, their players are in the best leagues. The distribution of this is, okay, not to get too big brained here, but we are now in also the globalization state of soccer, right? A team like Japan and a team like Morocco can have
00:23:48
Speaker
their entire starting 11 played in the top leagues in the world because of the improvements in global scouting. And because those leagues now know there is talent to be found everywhere if you go send scouts there and invest in it. Well, and there's value to be found, right? Yes, totally. That is what causes it is that it's a lot cheaper to buy a player who's really good from Morocco than to buy a player who's really good from the country you're in.
00:24:13
Speaker
But that's been why there's a lot of World Cup players in this tournament from MLS, right? That's South America, MLS, or have, I think in the last five, 10 years, South America have always been, but specifically teams investing, scouting there, really good pipelines for talent. So this is, I think we're in agreement, a lot of factors that have led to this really diverse round of 16. It was really fun that we got those games. Go ahead.
Knockout Stage Expectations
00:24:42
Speaker
So taking that point and now shifting it kind of forward, what does that mean we're going to get? Are we still going to get surprise results in the round of 16? Or are we going to end up with a World Cup that remains dominated by the pre tournament favorites? I think that is the big question for me.
00:25:01
Speaker
Yes, Japan, really good. Morocco, really good. Australia, surprising, impressive in their results. The US, able to control games. We have these teams that are of a tier below the major favorites that have had success. Now will any of those teams break through and go on an extended run? Because we've seen those in World Cup past, right? Costa Rica got to the quarterfinals. Ghana and Uruguay played a quarterfinal match at a World Cup.
00:25:25
Speaker
Is there a team in this field around a 16 that has the combination of talent and draw to make an extended run in the knockout stages? I agree with you. That is the big question. I don't know the answer. It's really fascinating because I do think the favorites have shown themselves to be the favorites. We also are now better at predicting than ever before because of modeling and all sorts of data now that exist in soccer.
00:25:53
Speaker
And so when the model said that Brazil, France and Argentina are really good, they were right. And we did have that Argentina scare, but they look just as good. And then you have Spain and England, very good teams. And I think.
00:26:09
Speaker
I'm not sure about the quarterfinals. I think we might see two, maybe three shocks into the quarterfinals. I'd be very surprised if we didn't get a chalky semifinals and from there on. That being said, there's always sometimes a run. A weird team gets into the semifinals. Croatia in 2018 was kind of an underdog run.
00:26:37
Speaker
I'm not sure what we'll see. I'm tending to think that the four best teams or at least Brazil, France, and Argentina should all make it to the semifinals.
00:26:48
Speaker
It's fair to say there's kind of five teams that we would think have maybe separated themselves. And of those five, they've kind of separated themselves into two tiers, right? We have the three kind of major favorites, Brazil, Argentina, France, and then the two kind of sub favorites in England and Spain. Those teams are distributed throughout the bracket so that we can have four of them in the semifinals. England and France would be the only ones who would have to meet before the semifinals because Spain didn't win their group.
00:27:16
Speaker
Is there a team that is not of those five that you think can make the semi-finals? Right. I think Portugal could if they beat Spain. Spain aren't impervious to beating Portugal. Portugal have shown they're actually quite good with the Ronaldo problem. And then, you know, you would think the Netherlands are the next team up, but we both think they're an upset pick, perhaps in the round of 16, which we can get to.
00:27:46
Speaker
or we got to. So. All right. Behind the curtain time. We've recorded this podcast in different segments. So a bit is confused because space and time are different when you record a podcast and splice it together at the end. Right. One main timeline. All right.
00:28:07
Speaker
Marvel Cinematic Universe reference. Great. I think Japan or Croatia, because one of them will be in the quarterfinals, of course, has a chance also. So those are very mathy answers to just on the draw, Portugal and those two teams could have a chance. But in any one game, I'm still taking the teams I like. That being said, there's no way that we get an entire chalk of all the group winners winning. I can't see that happening.
00:28:37
Speaker
Well, also the group winners aren't necessarily chalk, right? Like Spain was a runner up. And so they're playing Morocco, who were a group winner. Japan were also group winners. Can you pull up your favorite 538 numbers? Can we steal their content here? I want to see who is the sixth most likely team to make the same goals. Actually, it might be the fifth most likely team because they might have a better chance of naming who would have to go up against France. It's illustrative in what we might expect, right? Brazil first, Spain, then Argentina, then France, that's four.
00:29:07
Speaker
England which we thought those are the silver five then Portugal the Netherlands Which checks out is that to win the tournament or make the semi-finals? Winning World Cup right is the same Yeah, great. Okay interesting. So I think I generally agreed that Chances probabilities and everything
00:29:31
Speaker
That would be what I would probably have if I were ranking the teams as far as who could go the furthest. I think the two teams that I look at that could upset that hegemony are Morocco and Japan. We've seen good stuff from them at this tournament. Morocco outplayed a theoretically elite European team in Belgium. They matched Croatia blow for blow.
00:29:52
Speaker
I think Morocco, Spain can be a really good knockout round match. And I think Morocco have the mindset and the capability of taking the game to Spain and with a couple of breaks that go their way with maybe some poor Spanish finishing, they can win that game and they can go through.
00:30:09
Speaker
Japan are another team that I think could have success. They match up with Croatia. I think that's another really, really good round of 16 game. And Japan have shown that against favorites who dominate the ball in possession, they can be effective. They did it twice. They did it against Germany. They did it against Spain. In a theoretical quarterfinal matchup against Brazil, you wouldn't want to overlook Japan because of what they've done already in this tournament. I think those are my kind of two teams that look really interesting. And I think you kind of have to throw the US in there as well.
00:30:38
Speaker
Because of the style that they've played, the amount that they've been able to control a game, as we'll get to in a minute, we'll talk about the US and the Netherlands. And against Argentina, I think there's a chance that the US could cause them problems, particularly with how good their midfield is bet. I agree with all three of those candidates. I'm not sure I'd add another one. I think the next side of the question, which I can take a stab at,
00:31:00
Speaker
is of the favorites who maybe is most likely not to get through. I'll start easier. I'll start with Portugal. I don't think it would necessarily be a disappointment for them. I don't think it would be that crazy for them to lose in the quarterfinals. That's probably actually expected if they play Spain in the quarterfinals. But I just think Portugal are going to, even if they played Morocco, if Morocco upset Spain, I can see Morocco then taking it to Portugal.
00:31:30
Speaker
Did Switzerland give Portugal problems? Yeah, Switzerland's attack is really good. Their defense is going to have trouble with Portugal and Portugal will keep the ball more than they did against when they were rotated.
00:31:43
Speaker
But yeah, Switzerland are more than good enough to get the problems. But for me, the big one here is England. We've done lots of rants on England. We've talked about them a lot. I think Gareth Southgate, this is actually where his style is the most divisive because he's going to limit lots of chances and it's worked for them. But they've also been toothless in basically every big knockout match because of it.
00:32:12
Speaker
Variants or not, I just think that this style at some point is going to burn you and maybe they'll get to a semifinal and lose. Maybe they'll play France and they'll just be worse than France and lose, and that would be a fine outcome for them. But I struggled to see them making the semifinals in this tournament. So there you go. Another big three, where are you looking at for a potential team that could have a weakness of France, Brazil and Argentina?
00:32:38
Speaker
I do think no Neymar hurts Brazil slightly. Yeah, let's see if he can come back, right? The talk was that he's out for the group stage. There's only two more days before that round of 16 match.
00:32:51
Speaker
if Brazil and Argentina have quick turnarounds, but if they win, they get the first extended time off of this World Cup. They wouldn't have to play again until the next Friday. So for Brazil, that would be three days off. For Argentina, that would be five days off. So maybe there's a sense of Brazil that maybe Neymar is healthy enough to be an option off the bench, but you don't start him in the hopes that you can get through without him and then have him fresher for a potential quarterfinal game. Right. It's tough for me to
00:33:19
Speaker
to distinguish between the three. I think all three have weaknesses. But between them, before the tournament, my biggest quibble with France was their vibes. And that could sink them. They responded. So I can't say that in good conscience. And then Argentina, just on the whole, played the worst out of those three. And maybe it's their, I don't even think their back line is bad. Their back line is good.
00:33:50
Speaker
So I don't know. I really don't have a good answer to that question. Been untested. Yeah, I think that's a fair statement. It's been relatively untested so far. I think those three teams we think are the three best teams at the World Cup. Spain are probably right in that conversation. But they only have four points. Spain have a very big flaw, which is their defense and their goalkeeper are naive with the ball and just particularly not great at defending.
00:34:17
Speaker
Um, their offense, their attack might be good enough to offset that. But when we get, if you get to a quarter final against Portugal or a semi-final against France or England, I mean, around a 16 match against Morocco is no good. That's a team that can be very selective when they press, but when they do, Spain can absolutely not do what they did against Japan. That is a recipe to getting upset. Um,
00:34:43
Speaker
I think Spain were just generally lacking the urgency we needed because they had a chance. I think perhaps they thought there was no way Costa Rica won that game, and they just were a little flat. They were generally right. I mean, Costa Rica ended up losing four times. Right. Which is why I'm choosing to believe what I saw from them in the first two games, because they also subbed off Marada, and he helps them.
Spain's Defensive Vulnerabilities
00:35:08
Speaker
And this is his time to score goals.
00:35:11
Speaker
I think we're, hashtag player strikers. Hashtag player strikers. So I do think if we really, really want to get into it, Brazil, uh, where Charleston was good in game one, did, haven't really heard from him, but they didn't need to hear from him. And then will France miss Benzema is the difference between Benzema and Olivier Giroud enough to mean no world cup. Uh, Olivier Giroud has been really good and I like him. So I think the answer is they're fine also because
00:35:39
Speaker
and bapay is doing everything right now but these are like these are the knits that like could decide it so yeah exactly it's it's super duper interesting very quickly before we get into a preview of the two games that we have tomorrow netherlands usa argentina australia great world cup for asia so far three teams into the round of 16
00:36:01
Speaker
of the world.
00:36:17
Speaker
And then we're like going out in Ecuador going out two teams that absolutely could have gotten through the group. That's a poor result for the depth from carnival. Again, the top two teams have met expectations so far, even though they both lost a game and they could very easily still walk out of this World Cup winners, which would obviously make the World Cup a success.
00:36:35
Speaker
UEFA doesn't even count because they get so many teams, not even going to grade them. And then CONCACAF down to one team, I think that's a disappointment for them as well with the United States. Because Mexico's out, Canada never really got going, and Costa Rica, I think we're fine. But so, confederation-wise, Africa and Asia are looking like the two success stories so far. Agree, totally. It's also impressive that you have Japan doing it who are really good.
00:37:02
Speaker
from Asia, but then Korea who are solid, but maybe not. They're definitely nowhere near as I think, just squad wise, they're not as talented as Japan. They're not as big of a power. And Australia also not as good. So that's just really impressive to get those two teams through. I don't know if it speaks to like,
00:37:23
Speaker
the Asian Confederation being necessarily like as deep, they're not as deep as Common Ball, but I think it speaks to really good management from the managers, from the organization for building their squads, because both teams played with very clear identities and knew what they were doing. Meanwhile, an Uruguay and an Ecuador, two teams that were much better on talent, kind of mismanaged the group stage. And in the three games, a few decisions, they were done.
00:37:52
Speaker
Yeah. One thing we didn't talk about, and we're going to get into the preview of tomorrow's games next. One thing we didn't talk about in the South Korea Portugal game that we should have talked about in the South Korea Portugal game. And you triggered me when you said managers and Asian team. How about the day that Palo Bento had?
00:38:08
Speaker
got himself sent off in the last game for arguing about when the game ended, had to watch this game from the stands, and I'm pretty sure he just had two normal Portuguese people sitting behind him. He's also Portuguese, and there was a clip where I'm pretty sure the people behind him at one point told him to sit down. Like, dude, I'm not telling the manager of the team who's having to watch his team from the stands to sit down, particularly when he's from the same nation, and he can come back at me in the language that I just told him to sit down. What a freaking experience he had.
00:38:37
Speaker
Yeah, that's really funny. I'm just imagining, like, do you think they didn't know who he was? They had to have not known who he was. Or was it better if they knew and they were like, sit down, you managing is less important than me seeing.
00:38:54
Speaker
Imagine buying VIP seats and you find out that you're stuck behind the manager who got sent off in the last game and is now living and dying with his team trying to get to the round of 16. And they did it at the end, so he got to celebrate from the stands. Oh god, the World Cup. Best thing ever. Never change.
00:39:12
Speaker
No rest for the weary, group stage done amid less than 24 hours, round of 16 here, and we've got two bangers to start. The two games that matter most to the both of us, United States, Netherlands, Argentina, Australia, it's a great way to start the round of 16.
00:39:30
Speaker
It is for both of our personally and for the tournament as a whole, seeing Messi on the first day of the round of 16, a good opportunity for them to go through. And I think a sneaky chance for the United States to pull a big name upset. And probably good that it's not Poland playing on the first day of the round of 16, right? Just for the overall vibes of the tournament? Yeah. Yeah.
00:39:56
Speaker
All right, so USA Netherlands, you and I both think that this is a pretty good matchup for the US men's national team. What makes you say that? And what do you think is most important to them going through in this match?
USA vs. Netherlands Midfield Battle
00:40:09
Speaker
So first of all, 538, got to roll it out. Netherlands, 66%, USA, 34%. This is to go through, right? Just to go through, right? No draw. So just to go through.
00:40:26
Speaker
probably a tad too high for me. I think that the Netherlands are favored, and maybe I'm just nitpicking here, but the reason why is because the US played England a better team than the Netherlands well, had more XG than them. It was a low scoring game. We've talked about that a bunch of times. It was 0-0. Both XGs were below one, but
00:40:51
Speaker
The US midfield is one of the best at controlling the field, dominating the way the game is shaped. And the Netherlands play five in the back and don't want to commit too much forward. So this is a cagey game. This is a low event game. And the US has so far been very good defensively at this World Cup. So it's just going to be hard for either team to really assert their dominance. I think that helps the underdog here.
00:41:18
Speaker
It does. But I think my counter to that is this might be a game where there's not a lot of opportunity and there's not a lot of great chances. And you know what Netherlands have done in this tournament? They've scored goals on not great chances. And the US hasn't done that so far. That might be the difference here, right? Right. If this game, as many World Cup and especially World Cup knockout games do, come down to the moment of brilliance, then
00:41:47
Speaker
Netherlands has a few more of those guys that can deliver it, right? Yeah. The guy who's already done it in this tournament three times in code. Yeah. And again, my spin zone earlier in the week was he's due to not score crazy goals, but, uh, watching him, it's clear how much of a cut above he is most of the attackers in this tournament. Um, I think this is another big set piece game. I think from here on out for every game left in the tournament,
00:42:14
Speaker
I might have to just do it as a bit, this is a big set piece game, especially where both of these teams are not, they have decent attacking players, but structurally do not want to commit too much to their attack. So it's just the chances, as you said, are few and far between. So the set pieces really matter. And the US has not had
00:42:40
Speaker
great set piece execution, whether it's delivery, whether it's runs, timing, I don't know. I think it's all of those things at different points. But in qualifying in Nations League and Gold Cup, that was a strength of this team. I think if either team can score a set piece, it can matter.
00:43:00
Speaker
And one thing you saw today that we've seen all tournament, penalty kicks matter. As usual, they have an outsize effect on the outcomes of matches because they're just an amazing chance. And if you get one, you should score it. Yeah. General tip. Yeah. Yeah. Ghana really going to be regretting that one. Yeah.
00:43:27
Speaker
The US gave up a silly one, and this is one where the Netherlands attackers are going to be tricky and see if they can get a mistake from whether it's Dest, whether it's Zimmerman playing. And US hasn't really earned one, nor have they done a lot to.
00:43:44
Speaker
Christian Pulisic, will he play? I think so. Obviously, he makes the United States better at this point. The way they're using him is the right way. He's been good. They need him to finish the runs. I think the Netherlands may dominate the ball a little bit more than what I'm expecting, but that almost plays into the United States hands to counter attack because that's how they look. They're most dangerous against England. So
00:44:11
Speaker
I just see this being very cagey and I like the United States chances, but I'm not denying the Netherlands superior talent. I don't know, how do you see it go? Yeah, I think the midfield is super big here because that's been the strongest point of the US so far in this tournament. They've controlled the midfield pretty consistently. I think there's a chance to do that again in this game and I think they can kind of tilt the playing surface a little bit if they're able to do that.
00:44:36
Speaker
If they can control the midfield and kind of lock down the Netherlands ability to go forward and do a lot, that will pin an already not super progressive Netherlands team back further, right? And I think that would work in the US's favor. So that is a key point for me. And now that we're into the moment of knockout football,
00:44:58
Speaker
Could this come down to penalty kicks where the U.S. is trotting out Matt Turner and Netherlands is trotting out their volleyball coach trained out of nowhere goalkeeper who's a giant Andres Nelpert and could that matter? Of course it matters. Penalty kicks matter and I think we both agree, unfortunately with Alexei Lawless, that they are a skill. I know that they are
00:45:22
Speaker
They are on the whole random events, but in a vacuum, you can take good penalty kicks, and you can have good strategy, and you can make good saves. Today, we already talked about it. The Ghana penalty kick? Bad. Yeah. Of course, I'm terrified of Louis Van Hall, who's noted one of the most penalty kick shenanigans doers in the past with his Tim Krul 118th minute sub, and it worked out against Costa Rica.
00:45:52
Speaker
Yeah, I'm terrified. If you haven't read the story, there's not a story. But basically, back in September, he gave an interview with the Guardian. And he said, we've got this volleyball coach coming in to train the guys. If you think that he'll be helping the boys play volleyball, that is not what is happening. Thank you, Louis Fedhall, for clarifying. That's why you brought him in. But he said that they're going to do movements to distract the other team's attackers. They're going to have them shake it.
00:46:21
Speaker
OK, I would not like to see it, but if I were not a U.S. fan, this would be a hilarious proposition. But in fact, I'm terrified of of it now happening. If this match goes to penalties, will you literally just melt into a puddle? Is that what's going to happen here? Yes. Oh, yes, because oh.
00:46:39
Speaker
Sorry. Oh, there's a cat. We got a cat. It's the first time in World Cup after Dark History that the cat has showed up. There's no video feed, but a cat just jumped on the mid shoulders. Is that a good sign? Is it a bad sign for the US? I don't know, but there's a cat. I didn't like that the cat came out when we were talking about penalty kicks. That might not be good. It's a bad moment. It's a bad moment. Change the prediction. Yeah, I think we pretty much are on the same page about this game. The US are going to be in it. They're going to have their chances.
00:47:10
Speaker
But there might not be that many. I think the US have to be careful because they could talk themselves into being on the front foot and they surely might be. But all it takes is one moment for Gackbo to get loose, for De Jong to have space to ping a ball over. And the US likes to attack with their full backs.
00:47:30
Speaker
They send Dest and Robinson very high and very wide. And it's worked for the most part. Dest was awesome on the goal against a run. And that's the spaces where Gackbo wants to hang out and wait for you to leave a channel running behind or come back from the high line into space. And he's going to dribble and shoot. So he's honestly like a modern day Ari and Robin for them.
00:47:56
Speaker
It's, can you be a modern day player of a player who just retired like five years ago? I don't think you can be, I don't think Ari and Robin is that far in the past. I think that's a good point. I think Ari and Robin, I think nowadays teams would hopefully have a better understanding of the scouting report. He's going to, he's going to go one way. You're going to shoot with one foot, but I don't know. I, that's a little disrespectful. He was a very good player. I don't know. Do you, what are you, how do you, do you think, do you think the U S can pull it off? I do. I do. I think.
00:48:26
Speaker
I think this is a good matchup for the U.S. I think the downsides here are what you just brought up. There is still better attacking quality for the Netherlands. Like, I understand that they don't have an out-and-out bang-and-am-in striker, but the attacking quality still favors them, and they will probably need less opportunity to score in this game than the U.S. will need. The U.S. will have to create a lot if they're gonna score, or they need to be really clinical, and I don't necessarily know that they have that.
00:48:55
Speaker
But this is a game that they can absolutely win. This is a tie that they can absolutely go through, even if that's taking it all the way to penalties, even if that's kind of scoring a crappy goal in extra time. This is not a game where I expect the US to be played off the field. I don't think there's very many teams in this tournament that could play the US off the field. And the Netherlands are certainly not one of them. So this is an even game for me. I haven't decided how I'm picking it yet, but I'm kind of leaning towards picking the US in this game. Fair play.
00:49:22
Speaker
I do think it's a popular upset here in the States, but for the rest of the soccer world, I do think if you've been watching, the US is a good upset pick. A few last notes on this game, then we can move on. Gio Reina, this is the time. Three games, barely deployed. If you want some legs, if you're down in this game, good time to bring them on. And then other X-factors are both manager subs, what they do.
00:49:46
Speaker
Greg has been good in tactics. Slow on subs, perhaps bad on subs. Louis Van Hall, despite the Netherlands talent, he has different kinds of subs to bring on. What Memphis' depies availability is matters. So all factors to play in, but obviously
00:50:06
Speaker
the second half will be of a chess match between the managers. Final point for me on this one. It's super interesting. Neither of these teams have had a moment in this world cup where they've been under pressure to score, right? Like the U S scored early enough against Iran that they weren't absolutely chasing a goal against Wales. It wasn't absolutely necessary that they score. And they also conceded the equalizer pretty late on.
00:50:27
Speaker
Against England, there was pressure to score, but it wasn't super intense. What happens when or if the first goal goes in and how that changed the approach to these two teams, I think is something that will be really interesting.
Argentina's Strategy Without Di Maria
00:50:38
Speaker
All right, the other game of it, Argentina against Australia. On paper, Argentina, the heavy favorites here, they have more talent, they are more organized, they look to have found a rhythm. But Australia have shown themselves to be dangerous. They've shown themselves to be efficient in the way that they play. Is there a path for the soccerers to win this match, to go through?
00:50:59
Speaker
Because it's one game, yes, of course, anything can happen. I do think this is relatively straightforward to predict how it will go. Australia will defend. They will look to counter whenever they have a chance, especially if they can get two on two, three on two, even if it's two on four, three on four, whatever. And Australia is going to dominate the ball, pin them in.
00:51:24
Speaker
have to deal with Australia's organization. And Argentina has gotten better at that with each game. Again, it's pretty like I don't think the game's not going to go like that. And, you know, at some point, if Argentina are up one or two, Australia will throw their full might at chasing it. I think Australia's best best path here is frustrating Argentina into the 70th, 80th minute and getting a goal.
00:51:51
Speaker
I know Australia are good enough to score. I saw them do it three times against three better teams. I could even count on that here. I don't know if one goal is enough. Yeah. Argentina have just created so much. They have weapons off the bench if for some reason it's not going. So that's why I think if Australia only score one goal, it better be late. Or they need to score and get an all time
00:52:19
Speaker
goalkeeping, defending, bounce performance to get to penalties. It's gonna take that kind of night for Australia to have a chance. It's going to be not just a nightmare for Argentina, like an all-time crazy bounce. And I'm not saying that can happen. They could also bounce their way into two goals and then it would be really on. But the pattern of play in this one is going to be Australia dominating and
00:52:44
Speaker
seeing how hard they have to flex their muscles to create good chances. And I think what works against Australia here is Argentina already had that game at this tournament, right? Like they had that game against Saudi Arabia and they didn't win it. It's kind of hard to expect that game to happen twice in the span of four games. And that's what would probably have to happen here.
00:53:01
Speaker
I think Australia can can can frustrate Argentina. I think they can create a solid defensive line. But I think the amount of attacking talent that Argentina has and the fact that they've played this game basically three times already at this World Cup, they know how to play this style. They have slowly but surely figured it out. They know what players need to be in the starting 11. They know how to combine. And they also have the greatest player of all time in the history of the sport who can come up with moments of brilliance if other things aren't working.
00:53:31
Speaker
So all of that put together, it's hard for me to see a scenario in which Argentina do not go through from this game. But it's been a crazy World Cup, and maybe the round of 16 will be crazy as well. We're in full agreement on this game. Enzo Fernandez is the player that has changed the outlook. It's allowed. Rodrigo DePaul. There we go. There we go. And Jupiter. I do think this is another game for Alvarez. He just, you know, if you're not going to be getting in behind,
00:54:00
Speaker
Um, start Alvarez, he's a bigger body. He does more stationary forward things. Um, I think that'll help. And if you need those big Australian center backs a bit better, perhaps in less than. Yeah. If you need a lot of Martinez, you have him. Right.
00:54:17
Speaker
It's not a knock on Martinez by any means, who we agree is a great player. So this is going to be, I think, a comfortable Australian win, but you never know. Argentina. Sorry. Australia. The two A's, A's. Although maybe you were just putting that on the record so you can cut it after. And when Australia win 3-1, you're just like, let's take off with it. Yeah. No, I think this will be a comfortable Argentina win. It's hard to see it going another way.
00:54:46
Speaker
Yeah, I don't have a ton else to add. Yeah, one final thing on this. It looks like Angel Di Maria will miss, at least from the start. I don't know if he'll be an option off the bench. That'll change things for Argentina. That's going to be an enforced change. That's not a change that would have wanted to make. I think they'll be OK. They'll be able to kind of deal with that. But that's certainly one thing to watch here. So end of the day, are you picking the USA or Netherlands? USA. I'm taking USA and Argentina as well. I think they're going to meet in the quarterfinals. And I think this podcast is going to be a lot of fun.
00:55:14
Speaker
All right, we'll be back tomorrow to break down the results from those two first round of 16 games. We'll also kind of take a bigger picture look at the round of 16. We were rushed for time here, trying to get everything in from the last wild day of group stage action. And we'll also, of course, look at Sunday's matches ahead of those. So stay tuned for more next time on Woke Up After Dark. As always, thanks for listening.