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FORWARDS! - Top 6, Breakout Contenders and Mid-Priced Value! #PODPOD
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Forwards forwards forwards… Every year we lose the gun mids with forward status yet, we are usually left with some solid value.. This year however, it feels the trickiest it has been to nail down 6 starting options that we are comfortable with in our starting squads.. To Sheez or not to Sheez? Can we pay up for premiums with an early bye? How many mid-pricers is too many? All this and more on the podcast this week!
In this episode, the panel discusses everything you need to know in terms of the forward line. Lewy reveals his projected top 6 and the boys discuss who we can consider starting, the breakout guys are discussed in length as well as all the mid-priced guys who we may need to consider if the forward rookies don’t present. We deliberately left this position until last to analyse to provide as much up to date information as possible, so this is not one to miss!
The PODPOD is brought to you by Moreira’s Magic in 2026. All Holmes Files episodes will be available exclusively as a part of the 2026 Season Guide. As well as the podcasts, the Season Guide will also include:
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- Draft rankings
- DVP
- Strength of schedule
- Market Share
- Podcasts with Selby and Xavier Ellis
- Holmes Files episodes exclusive to the guide
- Much much more!
The guide is now live! A must have for any serious Fantasy coach head over to moreirasmagic.com.au/ to order now! The guide will be updated right up until the start of round 1 and the in-season content begins
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Holmesy: @Holmesysheroes
Lewy: @AFLewy
Harmey: @jonharmey
Dos: @HKdos
Sam: @grillis03
Jordy: @jordandsena
Dossy: @HKdos
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Transcript
Podcast Introduction
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod brought to you by Marrera's Magic. I'm your host Holmesy, two-time runner-up in AFL Fantasy Classic and three times top
Preseason Positional Preview
00:00:28
Holmesy
10. We are back for our final positional preview of the preseason before Origin starts, Match Sim starts and official practice matches and we qui creep up towards round one which is super, super exciting.
Guest John Harmy on Tim Kelly
00:00:41
Holmesy
We don't have Geordie on deck tonight, but we do have, as always, staple of the PodPod, two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019, John Harmy, here to talk nothing but Tim Kelly. John.
00:00:53
Holmesy
tim kelly john
00:00:56
Jon Harmey
Hello Host Hamesy, yes I've been waiting weeks and weeks for this so it should be a good opportunity to talk up TK, the number one midfielder at West Coast.
Top Six Forwards Discussion
00:01:07
Holmesy
Yeah, look, we are going to get to lose our top six forwards in a little bit. And you might find that he's he's ah he's a notable omission, but I do believe you have him ranked as the seventh highest forward army. So I'm looking forward to that sell.
00:01:19
Holmesy
But Louis, I did mention we do have the perennial top 1K finisher here ready to give us the top six in a little bit and and discuss all things all things forwards. Louis, thanks for jumping on. How are you?
00:01:29
Lew
I'm well, thanks, mate, and excited to talk forwards. I'm glad that we left this one for last because I think just in the last couple of weeks, there's maybe been a little bit more clarity. yeah Perhaps some information has come out where we're just starting to gain a little bit of confidence in some of these forward picks. So I'm sure we'll delve into that today. And yeah, very excited.
00:01:51
Holmesy
Yeah, we deliberately left this one to last just because we wanted as much of the preseason to unfold so we can gather a little bit more information. It would have been pretty pointless talking about this all the way back in the start of January.
Jack Viney's Injury Concerns
00:02:03
Holmesy
But before we get into that, there are some sort of hot topic news items that we need to just alert the community of just in case they're not all over the Twitter.
00:02:12
Holmesy
Lou and the first one are... came out announced today actually. So Jack Viney has been dealing with that Achilles injury and a back injury ah for the entire preseason and he actually went in for surgery today. So he is a long, long way off. And when you combine that with Petrarca and Oliver leaving, the core of that midfield is just going to be completely different. So where does your mind go straight away? Because we all assumed Viney would get to the line and and partner Jack Steele alongside, well, there in round one. So...
00:02:41
Lew
Yeah, I mean, there's a few names that spring to mind immediately. I think probably the last man standing, certainly from last year, is Cozzy Pickett, who may get a mention in this top six.
00:02:52
Lew
But I think there's ah there's a couple that are probably going to have a little bit more opportunity. Some names which we've been a little bit hyped before in the past. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Trent Rivers match.
00:03:04
Lew
potentially get into there and attend some more
Melbourne's Midfield Changes
00:03:08
Lew
centre bounces. I think a Harvey Langford has probably been spoken about a little bit in terms of his potential. But the the cupboard is bare. We might even be seeing, you know, like ah like an Ed Langdon or somebody go into that midfield and sort of hold hold it down just for a little bit while the the troops return. But gee, there's there's not many left, ah is there?
00:03:29
Holmesy
Yeah, far out. they they They're coming to a cliff, Melbourne, surely. we've been We've been looking at it for a few years now and they were able to to hold on with some of their guns and none none bigger than Max Gorn, but far out. I think they're going to struggle this year at least to start the season.
00:03:45
Holmesy
Harmy, in that same team, Jai Cully, broken arm or broken shoulder, whatever it were whatever it was. So he's going to be off for a little bit now. So you'd assume he's not... going to be a fantasy option for us as ah as a mid-priced option to start the year.
00:04:00
Holmesy
This one's interesting though. So George Wardlaw hammy. Now a hammy for George Wardlaw is just something we've become accustomed to. Now you it was reported today that it's probably not as bad as they first thought and he's still ah still a chance for round one. But what do you think that does to the to the north midfield?
Impact of Wardlaw's Injury
00:04:17
Jon Harmey
I still think that they will want him in there but as soon as he's fit and firing. So it may just be a short-term stopgap measure where they'll play ah Luke Parker a bit more in there or something like that, I think. And I think we'll see a major change. I think that they said it's on the lower side of the hamstring injuries. So they'll be hoping to get him back in four to six weeks, I'd say.
Jack Steele's Role Debate
00:04:45
Holmesy
Lou, do you think, just, sorry, we did kind of skip over the Melbourne part, but Jack Steele, I know you've been one of the the bigger haters there, like just with the way he plays the game and how it's all sort of speeding up and seems to be going away from these inside big body midfielders. But surely that just cements him now with no Jack Viney as that 80, 85% CBA guy that just does all of the grunt work in that midfield.
00:05:10
Lew
Yeah, I was going to say, a bit of a glaring omission there. I'm just looking at some of the centre bounces from last season. But, yeah, Jack still went over to the Ds late in their trade period, and he he's going to be playing midfield. he He said as much that he left St Kilda because he realised he's really just a midfielder only, and what a spot to sort of land given all these injuries. I think you're right. I think he's going to be probably...
00:05:35
Lew
the staple within that midfield, he's going to be attending every single center bounce, every single stoppage, let's be honest. I have been a hater in the past. I just think he's a little bit slow.
00:05:47
Lew
ah don't think he's particularly skillful either, but, you know, it it comes to a point now where there's just nobody there. And I think they're really going to have a reliance on him to, to at least try and be competitive in those, in those stoppages. So,
00:06:04
Lew
I'm ah um'm expecting Jack Steele to to really fire off the back of that. I think potentially based on what Melbourne sort of score as a team is probably where he gets affected most because the opportunity is just 100% going to be there. But no, I've probably got him a little bit higher up my list in terms of fantasy options now, just given all of this news recently.
00:06:29
Holmesy
um As the Bombers man, like we've we've spoken at length in this podcast already over the preseason about Jai Caldwell and and what he can do in ah in a midfield role, but we know he's injury prone and these things happen. And there was reports of ah a jarred knee and and missing some match sim.
00:06:45
Holmesy
does if If you were interested in Caldwell, does this like just give you a little bit of doubt there or do you just see it as part of the preseason and if you were just as bullish on Caldwell before that nothing should really change?
Jai Caldwell's Knee Injury
00:06:57
Jon Harmey
Yeah, we're still a little way off round one, aren't we, with the Bombers play? So i wouldn't be too deterred.
00:07:04
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:07:04
Jon Harmey
ah I ah thought it was a contact injury and they were just being conservative with him. But I did hear today he was still training with strapping so and not training fully.
00:07:15
Jon Harmey
So something you definitely have to keep an eye on if you're keen to start him because it's not as if he's coming in priced at 80, he's coming in priced over 100. So you'd want to be very confident in him.
00:07:28
Holmesy
A few other names here that are, well, a couple fantasy relevant, but a couple not. So Mark Keane, Louis, that broken leg looked quite nasty considering the fact that he just looked at it and tried to pop it back in. Not fantasy relevant, but who knows, does that open up a defensive spot for someone in that Adelaide back line? Does one of their distributors maybe play a little bit taller?
00:07:50
Holmesy
Look for opportunity
Sean Darcy's Calf Injury Update
00:07:51
Holmesy
there. Sean Darcy, the calf injury, another two weeks on the sidelines. So any hope of just a ah quick little one week and then back to preseason as normal, I think for Darcy, even if he does play mid-minutes in the practice matches, he's going to be heavily managed. So I think that completely rules him out as an option, as much of a truther as I wanted to be.
00:08:12
Holmesy
Bo Adensoul from Gold Coast. So pick 18, high-grade Hammy. So he'll miss six weeks. So that's another rookie option that they were kind of talking up in the preseason, but he won't be there for us round zero and round one anyway. So you can scratch him off the list.
00:08:27
Holmesy
And boys, I'm going to, I didn't put this one in there. So I want you guys, whoever put this in the run sheet needs to talk about this one. Zach Williams playing in defense is a forward price at 61.
00:08:39
Holmesy
Own up, who chucked that in the run sheet?
00:08:41
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I put that in there because we're talking about forwards and I noticed that Lou didn't have it anywhere. But I found that interesting, you know, like he's priced at 61. He's bloody cheap, probably because he just sits up forward these days and does stuff all. But if there's opportunity on that backflank, possibly something we need to have a look at.
Zach Williams' Defensive Role
00:09:00
Holmesy
Yeah, i I actually looked into him as some of my research for for Selby's season guide. And the interesting thing was he actually started getting some CBAs last year. Now, they weren't massive by any means, but there was there was games where he got thrown in as a bit of an impact mid and that didn't really help his scoring. I think Zach Williams, the days of him being a scorer over. But yeah, Harmy, price is 61. You'd have to look at it.
00:09:21
Holmesy
ah You've obviously got Newman hopefully returning back there. They've recruited Florent. They do like Ollie Hollins back there. So who really knows? But yep, don't mind the little flag there.
Top Forwards Selection Strategy
00:09:31
Holmesy
Lou, let's get stuck into the forwards. And what we're going to do is we're going to start with your projected top six forwards. And that's going to start a bit of a conversation about how many of these guys we do want to start. It's been well documented that the value in the forward line is probably something we're going to need to hunt this year because of the the lack of options. But I do typically like to start one or maybe two of the top end if they present value. So let's go through your projected top six forwards and get the conversation started.
00:09:59
Lew
Yep, no worries. So I've got ah a list here. i've got a couple of dot points. I'm just going to read these off. So apologies if I sound a little bit robotic, but after today, I've not got a lot of mental bandwidth left. So we'll run with this. Rank one I've got at as Harry Sheasel. I don't think this is going to come as a surprise to anybody. It's been an absolute fantasy gun since he debuted. He's done a lot of scoring off of halfback in the years previous, but...
00:10:28
Lew
Has started to attend some more center bounces and is spending a little bit more time forward to center as well.
00:10:35
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:10:36
Lew
Had 50% CBAs eight times last season for a return of 117. one seventeen But admittedly, that does include a 186. But that's a testament to his ceiling and his option as a captain. So... you know, if we're starting a 109 averaging player to begin with, we certainly want to have that confidence that he's got a ceiling to be able to put the VC or C on top of him.
00:11:01
Lew
um
00:11:02
Holmesy
Sorry, Lou, just before you jump on, let's let's just have a bit of a chat about Shazul because it's ah it's a hot topic in the preseason, right? Like we preach value, value, value. And yes, with the CBA midfield role, he could potentially be value. But more often than not, we see players priced at 109, 110 plus often regress back.
00:11:22
Holmesy
Let's talk a little bit about ownership. So the ownership that I'm going to rattle off here is actually adjusted ownership. So the bit in that guys on Twitter, if you're not following them, go and check them out. They do some great stuff.
00:11:32
Holmesy
They talk about adjusted ownership versus what the ownership is on the fantasy website. Now, But without going too nerdy in ind depth here, the adjusted ownership is adjusted ownership for teams that are complete. So the ownership on the fantasy website, that takes into account every single team. So whether a player's just logged in and has their team blank or whether they filled their their team in. So adjusted ownership's more accurate.
00:11:57
Holmesy
As it stands right now, Sheezal is in 87% of completed AFL fantasy side. So
Harry Sheezal's High Ownership
00:12:05
Holmesy
if you're going against Harry Sheezal, you're in the 13% at the moment that don't own him. So is there a chance, is there some game theory here where you go against a Harry Sheezal?
00:12:19
Lew
I mean, yeah, if you're looking for a point of difference, there's ah that's certainly up in lights, isn't it, at 87% ownership. I had no idea it was quite that high. um Look, Holmesy, I'd love to throw back to you on this one. Personally, I think...
00:12:35
Lew
Now, if you're looking for value, yes, you could look elsewhere. um ah do think the forward line has been a tough line, certainly at the upper end here to select from.
00:12:46
Lew
And just given that ceiling, and I think just given his role at North Melbourne, we obviously know how important he is. i think even to say that he's going to be playing more midfield is probably...
00:12:58
Lew
not accurate. I think what would be accurate is that he's going to be around the ball, ah hence is his ah sort of importance to that team. so I think he's only getting better. i can see it's Not often you can point to some upside in a guy that's priced at 109, but I think he really is sort of the the key to that side and their improvement. and I think he's just going to go to where sort of they need him to be in ah order to sort of advance the the footy forward and and get some scoreboard pressure.
00:13:30
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, I think there are a lot of reasons why you would be starting Sheezle, but I have had teams drafted without him in at Holmesy, so...
00:13:41
Jon Harmey
ah I'll just give you a few names. You would just be relying on the upside of somebody um that is going to score up close to the top of the line and still be making money and averaging quite a bit more than what they're coming in price at. So you would need to see a lot from somebody like Jordan Degoe, Joel Frazier,
00:14:06
Jon Harmey
um Yeah, Joshua Shelley, that sort of player, I think, in order to remove Sheasle and put somebody like that into your side.
00:14:15
Holmesy
Yeah, I think just before you go there, Lou, like Harry Sheasel, over the last two years, he's played three distinct roles, right? So he's either been a ah CBA midfielder where he gets above 60%, he's been in defence where he gets a large portion of the kick-ins, or he's been that sort of high half-forward pushing up the ground.
00:14:34
Holmesy
And the the evidence there, i highly doubt he goes back into defence, but When he's a 60% plus midfielder, he averages 115 over the last two years. And when he gets less than, I think it's 50% CBAs, but doesn't get a kick in. So that forward roll, he's a 105. So you're you're paying 109 for, I think, worst case, a 105 and best case of 115 upside if he is that full-time midfielder. So I don't think he's going to be someone that you pick at 109. and goes at 90 for the first five weeks, and the other guys that don't select him can get him at a serious discount. I don't think over the year going to get too much price fluctuations from Harry Sheasel. So if you pay 109 and you get 105 from him, it's not the end of the world. But if you don't start him and he goes 115 plus to start, then that's a very, very good pick, Luke.
00:15:24
Lew
Yeah, I think he certainly represents a fair price. I just can't see this one burning coaches too much. In fact, it might be quite the opposite given that ownership. And just taking a quick look at his fixture too, round one starts with Port Adelaide, who anyone's to guess what they're going to dish out under a new game plan. They might be a little bit disorganized and let some scores through, but then rolls into round two, West Coast Eagles, round through round three, Essendon. And then I'll throw in...
00:15:54
Lew
Richmond in round six there because realistically if if Sheezil is firing and you're not starting him he's going to be a very very difficult player to be able to trade in certainly within probably the first 10 rounds of the season so there's captain scores there's VC scores that you're potentially missing out on I think North Melbourne tend to play a lot of Sunday games still so as a fullback captain option Harry Sheezil could really be your man this season to start
00:16:22
Holmesy
Yeah, no, agree with that, Lou. At number two, you have Sam Flanders. Like we're all picking him, but having him projected at F2 is probably a bit spicy, but I love the train of thought and I've done a bit of research here as well, but currently adjusted, he's 75% owned. So you kind of got to wonder what the other 25% of coaches are doing at the moment. But what about Flanders has got you so excited to have him projected at F2?
Sam Flanders as a Must-Pick
00:16:48
Lew
Yeah, so first of all, at this price point, I think Sam Blanders is pretty much a must pick, one of the first selected in my side, certainly. We go back to 2024. His average of 108 was actually off the back of just 31% CBAs, which probably surprised me a little bit. We do know that he had a bit of time off of halfback as well. But in 2025, he sort of fell off a cliff, and and that was just because...
00:17:15
Lew
Dimmer favoured Anderson, Rau and Miller through that midfield. And then new recruits, Daniel Rioli and John Noble off halfback, pretty much um made him a little bit obsolete in that team. So he's already come out and said he wants opportunity as a midfielder. The Saints have come out and said, yes, we want you as our midfielder. And I'm expecting this guy to to slot in behind Asai Wanganin-Miller, certainly with the departure of Steele. Sort of at that M2 position at the Saints. I think he's going to be really effective there. And Saints being a superior fantasy-friendly style of footy compared to what the Suns have been dishing up in previous years. um I'm actually expecting Flanders to grab this with two hands. So given that some of these...
00:18:00
Lew
Upper echelon sort of options in the forward line maybe aren't as high as you know what we're looking at in other lines. Sam Flanders nudging 100, maybe something north of that. I think that puts him as an F2 for me.
00:18:14
Holmesy
Yeah, so when I looked at it, so looking at his 2023 and 2024 data, there was 15 games where he had above 50% centre bounces and that equated to 100 average. And as you said, he was playing in a a Gold Coast side that wasn't really focused on fantasy points. The midfielders didn't score that well outside of a Noah Anderson back in those those years.
00:18:37
Holmesy
Yeah, there's such a hole there in that midfield now. you We still don't know what Nassai Wang and Emillera midfield split is going to be. We're all assuming it's full-time, but they love him off halfback. What does McRae do You've got Garcia and Windy that both averaged about 50% each.
00:18:52
Holmesy
That probably amalgamates into one defensive midfielder there, so there might be some some opportunity opening up there. Sam Flanders, he's ah he's a lock, but I suppose putting it in here for draft as well, it's like how early does he go on draft day? It's a a ballsy coach to pick him in that sort of second, third round. But if he can be F2, he's going to get snapped up at some point. So don't mind that, Lou.
00:19:14
Holmesy
At number three, you've got Petrarca.
00:19:15
Jon Harmey
Hold on, hold on.
00:19:17
Holmesy
Oh, harm you.
00:19:19
Jon Harmey
Just to say conservatively with Flanders, he's going to average 90.
00:19:19
Lew
John.
00:19:25
Jon Harmey
Still 22 points upside, isn't it? So like, man, you'd be crazy not to start him. But just to play devil's advocate, Lou, did you look at Paddy Dow and how his preseason has been tracking?
00:19:38
Lew
No, he's out of hospital, I presume, and training, full training, Harmy.
00:19:45
Jon Harmey
One you didn't mention in there was Matthias Filippo.
00:19:45
Holmesy
Okay.
00:19:49
Lew
Mm-hmm. Yep.
00:19:50
Jon Harmey
um i mean, any any big footy reports, forum reports on where he's lining up in the pre-season?
00:19:50
Lew
yeahp
00:19:58
Jon Harmey
I mean, you keep sort of – everyone's killing it, aren't they, this time of year, right? They're frigging training. But is he in the midfield or not? Because that's probably another thing you're not going to get to because I'm assuming he's not going to be in your top eight.
00:20:11
Lew
Yeah, what's tough, um certainly it's not a slight, but the Saints fans get very up and about. And I think um potentially 23 of them may win the Brownlow this year. Just looking at some of the the Twitter posts regarding how they're all tracking,
00:20:27
Lew
ah Look, um I'm not sure where Philippou slots in just yet. I'm not sure he's ahead of Windy, um Sam Flanders or Nassai Wanganin Miller.
00:20:38
Lew
Potentially, he gets that fourth midfield slot with ah with a really nice preseason. We know that Ross loves him, but we just haven't seen a lot of Philippou yet. I think he's going to outperform his 58 price stat for sure.
00:20:49
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:20:51
Lew
How much he puts on top of that, I'm not sure. We know he can be a pretty effectual forward as well, so that'll probably almost be certainly a rotation. But yeah, his body has let him down in in the years previous, so that's one to watch in the practice games, and and round zero is going to be a massive deciding factor in that. If he pumps out something close to a 90, I think all of a sudden, then Matthias Philippou is probably in a lot more forward lines to begin this season.
00:21:21
Holmesy
Beautiful. Coming in at F3, Lou, you've got Christian Petrarca. So 58% ownership. ah It's well documented that they have a really good run to start.
Christian Petrarca's Fixture Analysis
00:21:31
Holmesy
So Geelong in opening round and then Eagles and Richmond followed by his bye and then the revenge game against Melbourne, which I'm sure he'll be up and about for.
00:21:40
Holmesy
The question is sort of around Petrarca with that bye. What do you sort of project him going and does that make him a starting option for us?
00:21:49
Lew
Well, that's what's tough what's tough, isn't it? He's got one of the best fixtures to start. And as we've mentioned plenty of times over the last couple of months, the forward line tends to be a little bit tougher this year. It's a little bit tricky.
00:22:03
Lew
So I can certainly see some ceiling games early for Petrarca. I've seen a few people also float the idea of potentially trading him at the buy to take that ceiling scores and and then jump off to something Else, um I'm not sure I'm in favour of that. I think if Petrarca starts the season going 120-120, then trading him at round three, it's going to be seriously difficult because that fixture still remains relatively easy. In fact, pretty much up until his mid-season buy, it's quite favourable.
00:22:38
Lew
he He's a player that comes in and out of my side all the time. And to be honest, he's a player that quite often pops into my midfield too, which might be a little bit strange. But as we'll mention during this podcast, there's a lot of mid-priced forwards there.
00:22:56
Lew
And as we always say with a cheap R2, it's hard to get off of a cheap R2 because you've got a trade into into piss essentially. And if we're saying that the forward line is a little bit average,
00:23:08
Lew
then I'm unsure on how I'm going to be to able to jump off of some of these mid-price forwards if I select them without sort of jumping into something I'm just as uncertain about. So given that a lot of these forwards are lacking that mid-forward eligibility, him in the midfield with that nice fixture does sort of um make me a little bit excited sometimes. I think you know just that ability that he can go back into the forward line i can jump off one of these forwards mid-prices that maybe fails into something that I've got a little bit more confidence in, given all our links to the other lines. That's where ah I'm quite liking Petrarca. Hami, have you got something to say on that?
00:23:50
Jon Harmey
Just on the mid-price discussion point that you had there where you say, you know, like we've got a lot of mid-price forwards, I'm just feeling at the moment I've got too many of them and you're better off just having, you know, a couple and then if you don't get the right one, you can flip it to the one that has really popped without any major structural change to your team. Whereas if you've got four or five, um you may end up just having to hold them too long into the season.
00:24:18
Lew
This is where I'm struggling though, because the forward rookies aren't really there at this point either. So if you...
00:24:24
Holmesy
Oh, Louie, you've actually... are Sorry, you actually just reminded me of something. so And combined, so Sid Draper was trying to get back into full training and went down again with a groin today. So that was one we were hoping would get to the line.
00:24:34
Lew
wow.
00:24:37
Holmesy
um It's unsure about how serious it is, but left the track straight away shaking his head. So you are right when... These forward rookies don't seem to be there. Yes, Dev Rob, we're hoping is there round one, but you know we might have to end up putting Dev Rob on the bench if we don't get another two rookie options that are viable to be scoring cash for us.
00:24:58
Lew
Yeah, look, they always tend to pop up late, but the scoring potential, we don't know. I could tell you plenty of people that selected Isaac Kako last year, and look they probably regretted that. I think you know a small forward, if they're not going to be putting up something significantly north of what they're priced at often enough, then they can just quite often become a dead pick. But...
00:25:19
Lew
Look, in terms of Petrarca's role this season, they've already come out and said he's going to replace Tuuk Miller in that midfield. So it's going to be Matt Rau, Noah Anderson and Christian Petrarca. And I'm expecting probably a fifty fifty rotation with Bailey Humphrey, just given he's quickly developed. I think he needs that opportunity and certainly a little bit of a trade scare, maybe last trade period. So they're going to be wanting to give him some minutes in there. So...
00:25:47
Lew
That's maybe not as much of a flag as as what it would be with some other players, just given that Petrarca's
00:25:56
Lew
ability to impact forward and midfield is is quite effectual. i think he can still really put up a nice score, you know kick three, maybe four goals, but... Coming in priced at 90, I'm expecting something north of that. So there's going to be some upside.
Adam Treloar's Role in Bulldogs
00:26:11
Lew
It's the early buy-around that makes things tricky. But if he didn't have that buy-around, I think we'd be looking at potential ownership of of what a Harry Sheasel is at 87%.
00:26:22
Holmesy
Beautiful. All right, F4, we have Adam Treloar. So 9% adjusted ownership. we've We've spoken at length on this podcast about what he can do given the right role. Now, we're unsure what his role is going to be, Lou, but I'll just play a little bit of opening round roulette as it's called thanks to the ball boys. But Treloar comes out in opening round.
00:26:44
Holmesy
He has 50% center bounces and scores a 90. What are you doing?
00:26:50
Lew
I think I would select him. What about you, homie?
00:26:55
Jon Harmey
Treloar? Nah, I'm just not keen on him. Sorry, mate.
00:26:58
Lew
Homsey, you're a yes.
00:27:00
Holmesy
I just look at that Bulldog system, mate, and what Kennedy was able to do with very minimal CBAs last year. So I think he was just under 50%, still able to average 97. And remember, he's got that 30 in there as well. he was He went on that game, that run of like, what, 10, 11 straight tons, whatever it was. don't Don't quote me on that. But it's just the system.
00:27:21
Holmesy
I'm not going to do it. There's other options. We're looking at C-Max and other options that have the buy, which we'll get to a little bit later. But I'm just going say, it would not shock me if after round five or round six, Adam Treloar is fit and healthy, is averaging over 100, and we're all just kicking ourselves going, this was this was an obvious one that we were just too scared to do.
00:27:40
Jon Harmey
It would also not shock me, Holmes, if he plays five games for the season and he's overtaken very early in the season by some of the younger players who they do want to invest time and energy into.
00:27:43
Holmesy
ah
00:27:51
Jon Harmey
I think he was the last guy they gave a contract to, wasn't he? Like, don't know.
00:27:55
Holmesy
Yeah, well, they do that too they do that to Cedarfield each year, Harmy, and then he just pumps out 70% centre bounces, so...
00:27:56
Jon Harmey
It doesn't really make sense to me.
00:28:01
Jon Harmey
He'll be doing it in the VFL this year.
00:28:02
Lew
That's it. You're true to me and you're keeping keen. Look, I'm thinking... I'm not worried about Adam Chalore's scoring ability. It's all about the opportunity that he's got in that midfield, isn't it? We've seen he's been pretty much north of 105 average for just about his whole career. So if he can take that Matt Kennedy role, 50% CBAs, I think that's really advantageous for him. I think he can score really well there.
00:28:27
Lew
ah But the only concern is, as you said, Harmi, is they've got a couple of young guns that are coming through. Riley Sanders has been spoken about for a couple of years now. But think Joel Frazier is the other one who who's sort of come from the clouds about 18 months ago and has just about, you know, there's been some fluff coming out that he might even be that third midfielder.
00:28:36
Holmesy
Joe Frazier. Yeah.
00:28:47
Lew
They call him the mini-bont. um in terms of that midfield structure, Bonson Peli Richards are going to be spending the most amount of time in there. But if Treloar can float around 3-4 in that midfield, then I've got a real interest there. I think his scoring has always been proven and ah provided he remains fit and the way that he plays his footy, I would expect him to to put up something really nice for our forward lines this year.
00:29:14
Jon Harmey
Yeah, would probably take ah a longer-term injury to liber, I think, in order to get him in there a decent rate.
00:29:21
Lew
was gone, apparently.
00:29:21
Holmesy
I reckon Libba comes out.
00:29:22
Lew
Half back.
00:29:23
Holmesy
Yeah, I reckon Libba comes out of the midfield harmony this year. Not completely. Not completely. But it in the in the three games that Treloar was actually healthy last year, Libba played 45% centre bounces. Now, correlation, causation, I don't know. But he's 34%. They've got those bigger body guys in there now like yeah Ed Richards and stuff. i like could I could see a world where Treloar... Ah, so not Treloar, where Lib is out of the midfield. At least that's the big portion that he was getting last year. But let's move on. Louis, F5, you've got Isaac Rankin. Now, we're not starting him because he's he's suspended for round one. He's priced at 87%.
00:29:58
Holmesy
I mean, the the stats I looked at in the last two years at Adelaide where he started to get these midfield rotations, 12 games above 50% centre bounces for a 94 average, but then 23 games below 50% centre bounces for an 81 average.
00:30:12
Holmesy
His contested numbers were actually really, really good, which surprises me as to why they took him out of the midfield last year. It kind of screams like Adelaide got a little bit complacent with where their season was at.
00:30:24
Holmesy
Maybe his body can't hold up to full-time midfield minutes each and every week and and they like him forward. if he's If he's a 50% plus centre-bounds midfielder, I'm relatively confident that he's a 94 averaging player.
Isaac Rankin's Midfield Potential
00:30:38
Holmesy
But I suppose it's what his role is going to be is the interesting thing.
00:30:41
Lew
Yeah, exactly right. I think if the opportunity is there in the midfield and Rankin's body is you know going to hold up to it, I think that he's every chance to to go 95-plus this year. He's ah super talented, as we know. And yeah, I think the only thing holding him back is maybe just a little bit of management. That's what worries me a little bit. We saw it last season as well where when the Crows were sort of getting on a bit of a run, maybe they would back him off.
00:31:09
Lew
potentially that's where that extra interchange selection may be a little bit tricky. So he might come off at three quarter time and just play a couple of minutes there. But also we have been hearing about a bit of Josh Rochelle hype too.
00:31:24
Lew
We know that they're both really capable forwards. I wouldn't be surprised if they're going to be splitting their time, you know, equally or maybe in favor of a little bit of rank in there. But, um
00:31:34
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:31:35
Lew
just in terms of the depth in that Crows midfield. I'm pretty bullish on Rankin. I think he'll spend some time in our fantasy teams this season.
00:31:43
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I think the thing they're going to need one of Rankin or Rochelle in there just to have somebody with the speed to break the lines like, i don't know, who would be doing it otherwise. Saligo, probably. Yeah.
00:31:56
Holmesy
let's Let's pivot there then, Harmi, because it's it's we're going we're going to talk about Rochelle a bit later on in the mid-priced options. But the the awkward thing about Rochelle is I've got some stats here. So 2023, so in his second season, started the year in the midfield and in his first seven games to start 2023, 43% centre bounces, he averaged 90. But the awkward thing about us is...
00:32:16
Holmesy
he averaged ninety but the awkward thing about us is Round one with no Rankin, that could easily be north of 40, 50, 60% centre bounces. But is it a bit of a red herring with Rankin coming back in, Harmi? How are we going to know what that role is when Rankin comes back?
00:32:34
Jon Harmey
You know what I was thinking on the weekend, Holmesy? Like, we're you're hearing this being pumped up, you know, great, he's going to be a great midfielder, righto. Why didn't they any of this last year?
00:32:46
Jon Harmey
Like, they had all season last year in order to put him in the midfield.
00:32:49
Holmesy
rankin was Rankin was the name last year, wasn't it? Rankin was all the talk.
00:32:52
Jon Harmey
Well, at the start of the season, then they took Rankin out of the midfield for some reason. i don't really understand what they're trying to do with their midfield, but
00:32:59
Lew
I remember a ah there was a quote on Fox footy or something where his effectiveness inside forward was one of the best in the competition. And maybe that's what Matthew Nix was sort of trying to lean into.
00:33:12
Lew
um But yeah, I mean, the problem with Rankin is he's so good at both positions. It's about where that sort of ends up laying. So yeah.
00:33:22
Holmesy
Yeah, ah i'm I'm big on ranking this year, Lou. I think he's someone that we are going to have in our squads at some point. I mean, given round six, we're going to get those DPPs and we don't know what midfielders we're actually going to get.
00:33:33
Holmesy
um Shelly does interest me. He does. Like, to be able to do that in your second season, to come out in in that role... Yeah, very, very interesting. But your F6 is one that I want to dive into a little bit more and that's because Cozzy Pickett. So 15% adjusted ownership. So there is actually a little bit of interest there. Price at 87, broke out in 2025 for 69% center bounces, but that includes some games early and when he was getting zero. So when he was in there, he was in there.
Kozzie Pickett's New Opportunities
00:34:05
Holmesy
To the eye, for me at least, it looked like he was more of that in that dusty mold where he was getting center bounces but then pushing forward. Could there be a world where he's getting 69% center bounces again or maybe even more, but this time it's more around the ground because they're just so desperate for quality ball users around the ball?
00:34:23
Lew
Yeah, this one is probably a little bit of a spicier one too. There were certainly some names floating around there, like a Grian Myers was hard to ignore.
00:34:34
Lew
I think you know Jeremy Cameron, provided he's fit, is a good one. Sam Darcy is another. But just that opportunity in that midfield, I think... could really favour Cozzy Pickett this year. So he jumped 20 points off the back of 69% CBAs last season. So he had a bit of a breakout year. I'm not sure too many people sort of predicted that. um it's It's, you know, all the demons midfielders have packed their bags and leaps. So he's going to be in there. Anything I expect those CBAs to hold or or even increase, to be honest. um
00:35:08
Lew
As I said, sort of with Jack Steele a little bit earlier, Total team points could potentially hurt him here. We also saw that last year when a tag did come his way or a bit of a tension, he did struggle with that.
00:35:21
Lew
So he's certainly not immune to to an absolute stinker of the score, but I can see some value on his price here. And I think maybe those 15% of owners are looking towards or looking at that lack of an early season buy, and maybe it's a little safe place where you can sort of pick a forward that you think has the potential upside to be a top sixer.
00:35:42
Lew
um and And yeah, so yeah, I don't mind this this pick here.
00:35:49
Jon Harmey
Where do you think his upside comes from, guys? I mean, he was already in the midfield almost 70% of the time last season. So is it just that he's the tap-toe bygone now in the absence of everybody else or that Steel is going to protect him a bit and look after him? Like, how do you see him scoring more than he did last season?
00:36:10
Holmesy
Look, Harmi, I think it's what I mentioned before is that so it from the eye last year, it looked like he was getting high centre bounces, but just like the dusty days of old and even Petrarca when he was at his prime, they'd take the centre bounces and then they'd push forward and then someone would then come into the midfield to then be more around the ground so that they could be a bit more dangerous forward. So...
00:36:31
Holmesy
If he's now a more center-bounce midfielder he's and he's getting to stoppages around the ground more rather than pushing forward, then he's potentially going to have more ruck contests around the ground and stoppages rather than just the center bounces. That's why i wish there was midfield numbers available for stoppages, not just ruckman for the ruck contest because that's going to give a more overall picture of stoppages around the ground and not just that center-bounce loop.
00:36:56
Lew
And I think if that forward role, you know starting in the midfield, moving forward, remained, I would be quite concerned. ah But what I think will happen is that the ball is going to go the other way because they're not probably going to win a whole lot of stoppages. And Kozzi is going to be made to sort of follow the ball around a little bit more and but get more involved. So... If that's the case, I could see some improvement there for sure. And as well as him, you know, having more development in that midfield. So it was only his first season sort of getting into there and breaking out properly from a fantasy perspective.
00:37:31
Lew
um I'm optimistic. I think that you know he can trend upwards a little bit from here. I think it wouldn't really surprise me if he can go 92, 93. Anything higher than that would surprise me a little bit, but he's certainly got the potential to if he can discover maybe a little bit of ceiling, but probably just minimize that floor a little bit more.
00:37:52
Holmesy
Beautiful. So just to go over that, so Sheezal at F1, Flanders at F2, Petrarca at 3, Treloar at 4, Rankin at 5, and then Cozzy Pickett at 6.
00:38:04
Holmesy
Harmi, my question to you before we get into some more of these mid-priced options, if we're starting a Harry Sheezal and then also a Sam Flanders, so that's two of the top six that we're projecting,
00:38:15
Holmesy
Is there a need to start another one of these higher-priced players, so a Petrarca Treloar type, if we've already locked two away?
00:38:27
Jon Harmey
I think that you certainly could if you were confident in them going up in price. um Personally, I don't think I am at this stage. If you're talking about lose, let's have a look at lose once. Petrarca, I'm not.
00:38:42
Jon Harmey
Treloar, I'm not. Rankin, well, he doesn't in play round one, and I'm not.
Forwards Starting Strategy
00:38:47
Jon Harmey
Pickett, you did a pretty good job, fellas, but you haven't convinced me yet. So out of those players, I wouldn't say that I'm um locking another one those in at F3 at this stage.
00:39:00
Holmesy
Beautiful. Don't give too much away, Harmy. I haven't told you boys yet, but you will be doing a team reveal each on the podcast next week. So i I'll put you guys to work. ah Yeah, the the interesting thing is I suppose Flanders, he's so cheap, he's mid-priced, but we're projecting him to be a forward premium. In years gone by, i would be i'd be looking at just those two, locking them away.
00:39:21
Holmesy
And then I'd be looking at some more rookies and then maybe some of the mid-prices that have had a role change. But I suppose... The interesting part about the strategy side of things is that if we don't get these rookies or they're not scoring rookies, then we might need to look at locking a third one of these away with a little bit of upside, but just safety in sort of players that we're projecting to hopefully not have to trade for large parts of the year.
00:39:45
Lew
Yeah, that may be the way the cards fall, Holmesy. We're going to discuss a couple of the mid-prices here, which know I am growing a little bit of confidence here. I think the practice games will reveal all.
00:39:57
Lew
Certainly think there's a couple of cheaper options that are maybe below that mid-price range that I like as well, but it would be nice to get a couple of rookies come out the woodwork and and have some confidence in actually picking because right now,
00:40:12
Lew
Outside of a Dev Robertson, it's probably looking at a Leo Lombard and then Lockie Dobberston looks like he's going to be potentially making a debut in round one.
00:40:16
Holmesy
you think
00:40:22
Lew
After that, it's it's pretty slim pickings. There's probably going to be a picket. um You may even get or you may even get a gallop. who i actually quite like potentially.
00:40:32
Lew
And then you've got um that Bombers small forward too, Harmi, I think Akbar or something.
00:40:38
Jon Harmey
I like that.
00:40:39
Lew
So yeah, it's ah it's not a great range to select from at the moment.
00:40:46
Holmesy
So before we get into like the genuine mid-price guys, let's just talk through quickly about some of these underpriced premiums. Now, some of these we don't need to discuss much. So I just wanted to put Dylan Moore on the run run sheet purely because we keep talking about this hole in the Hawks midfield.
Sam Darcy's Potential in Bulldogs
00:41:01
Holmesy
um So it wouldn't surprise me if Dylan Moore actually gets a bit of a bump there. So we know what he we know what he's capable of. He averaged 92 the year prior, which was off the back of 105 post-buy. So when he gets on a run, he can really score. an And and 88 the year before. So I think with the addition of some of the Hawks players in the development, I think he'll be around that 88. I think 82 is a little bit unders, but with that early buy, I'm not willing to look at Dylan Moore just yet, Harmi. But Sam Darcy is a name that is getting floated around the fantasy community and for good reason.
00:41:35
Holmesy
Absolute gun. Best young forward in the comp alongside Riley Philthorpe. Last year, what, first five games before he got injured, he was averaging 95. So there is, you know, just a loan in that 82 price tag. It's 87 adjusted when you take out that injury-affected game.
00:41:54
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:41:54
Holmesy
He did finish the year off slow, which we now know he had that shoulder surgery in the off season. So he was dealing with something, natural progression. Is there a chance that you get you start a sam Sam Darcy, sorry, to get off to a bit of a flyer with a bit of unknowns around the forward line?
00:42:11
Jon Harmey
Yeah, well, we'll see him in round zero as well, which will will help to see what role he is really going to have. ah Typically, I don't like key forwards, which he is. um ah They are very up and down based on the goals that they have and things going their way. Now, with that said, the Bulldogs should have a very good season. Yeah. he should really be the support ruck a little bit in the forward line I think as well and perhaps his lob in the back line something like that to take the pressure off English and avoid playing a second ruck so look he should have a good season i just he's not super cheap is he I mean and this is the thing when we all grabbed him last year he was a bit underpriced from what we thought so I'm not sure but he could very well be we could be in that top six at the end couldn't he
00:43:05
Lew
yeah i think I think teams might really plan against sean ah sorry Sam Darcy this season.
00:43:12
Holmesy
Sean Darcy too.
00:43:12
Lew
heat He did sneak up on us a little bit last season, I feel. um and you know It might be a zone defence. It might just be targeting him off the ball a little bit. I think the attention will come. I think he's probably priced at what he's going to do. He's an absolute gun. and you know he's He's certainly going to be hitting the scoreboard every single week. But...
00:43:34
Lew
Yeah, the hesitant hesitancy around a key forward, given that they don't have too many avenues to score outside of literally hitting the scoreboard. um I think that's enough just to sway me away.
00:43:44
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:43:46
Lew
And I'm not sure the ruck time is going to be significant enough to sort of hang your hat on that either, given Tim English is ah going to be in there.
00:43:54
Holmesy
Yeah, for the record, I'm not going to talk anyone out of starting him if they like him and they want to take a punt. But in my fantasy teams, I really want to pick players that are going to get off to a good start and and have things going for them.
00:44:07
Holmesy
And if we look at his run to start, he's got GWS, which is red. He then goes into Adelaide, which is red. Now might not be as red with Mark Keane out, but still a a tough team to score against for key forwards. Then he has his bye.
00:44:22
Holmesy
Then he goes into Essendon, Harmy, which is green based off last year, but they're going to get their defenders back. So we still don't know what that's like, but you'd think he probably tears them a new one. Then he goes into Hawthorne, which is red, and then Geelong, which is red. So it's not a good run to start for key forwards. I think we're potentially going to own him at some point throughout the year if he's got a nice five, six game run and he he maybe comes down in price. But on that run alone with the early buyer, he's not someone I'm i'm willing to start with.
00:44:53
Holmesy
Harmi, the next one I'll go to you for because you did mention him off the top a little bit, but Jordan Dugowie. Round two by, averaged 53 last year, which is gross.
00:45:04
Holmesy
Prystof is average the year before, so 77.5.
Jordan De Goey's Fitness Evaluation
00:45:08
Holmesy
If we look at all of his games as a midfielder in the last three years before 2025, 60-game sample size above 50% centre bounces for an 85 average.
00:45:17
Holmesy
I think that's what he is, but at the same time, there is a massive hole in that Collingwood midfield outside of Nick Dacos. What does Dugowie need to do to be a starter and and and could you look at it?
00:45:30
Jon Harmey
Look, I just can't let the drive by go, Holmesy, on that Essendon pot shot that you gave me. I think you forget that we have got the highest priced fullback in the competition in Ben Mackay. So anyway, just says in our defence.
00:45:45
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:45:45
Jon Harmey
Jordan Degoe, look, he's playing in the midfield apparently. He's super fit apparently. Look, It's a bit of a shame he's not cheaper based on what he scored last season, just with the pricing method in fantasy. But um I guess I'm interested a little bit.
00:46:02
Jon Harmey
um But don't know. I think all the balls is going to Nick Dacos. um There could be some upside with Dugowie if... He was at his prime.
00:46:14
Jon Harmey
He's at the age where he should be really um hitting his straps and being at the peak of his powers. Yet, you know, this is a guy that they were talking about being All-Australian a couple of years ago. So um there is the potential. And and they need to move bloody side bottom and Pendlebury out of the midfield. So, you know, with Josh Dacos, there should be some opportunity there. Crisp Dacos.
00:46:36
Jon Harmey
perhaps scaling back a bit with that midfield role. So, look, I just think that the role should be there for Jordan Dugowie, but we will need to see it, really, in order to pick him.
00:46:48
Holmesy
Lou, can I um put you to work and get you to earn your very, very small pay packet and slide into Jen's DMs to see what that Collingwood midfield is going to look like?
00:46:58
Lew
Yeah, well, she would know. I think she knows what jocks they're wearing at the moment, actually. So I'll see what information I can get out of her.
00:47:06
Holmesy
Good man. All right, let's go into these listener requests. I've combined these with some of the players we were going to talk about anyway. Thanks to all the listeners for getting those requests in. As we know, the pod pod doesn't run without you guys. So keep those requests and questions coming in all throughout the preseason and into the main season. Lou,
00:47:25
Holmesy
um've I've kind of considered these breakout guys. So the first one is Joel Frazier. So priced at 71, was an impact swingman last year, so played all over the ground.
00:47:36
Holmesy
In five games where he had above 30% center bounces, he averaged 81. So a little bit of an uptick there, but it's kind of hard to predict his upside having not seen what that full center bounce rotation is going to look like. But we do know the dog score in that system.
00:47:51
Holmesy
What about Joel Frazier?
00:47:53
Lew
I like it. it's It's heavily tied to what role he does play in that side. So if he's in regular centre bounces, I am seeing a lot of upside here, as you said, just based on what the Dogs have been able to produce.
00:48:06
Lew
Under Bevo, it's tricky to predict, though. I think you you know you'd really want to watch that practice game really closely, even more so round zero, I think. If those two roles correlate and maybe he's above 50% CBAs, then I could launch into that with a little bit more confidence, ah definitely, because we know that he is highly rated at the Dogs, and I think they are looking to give him more opportunities. So that's probably one of the guys I'm really going to have highlighted and watching with Hawkeyes come the practice games.
00:48:40
Holmesy
Harmy, all the rage this preseason is Connor Mack from Hawthorne. So priced at 68, which is a little bit awkward. Day and Warple's midfield minutes are up for grabs and all training reports are suggesting that he's training with the midfield. We've been waiting for a midfield role for years now as fantasy coaches saying as he averaged 121 all the way back in the the NAB league.
Connor Mack in Hawthorn's Midfield
00:49:01
Holmesy
And he has shown patches of scoring despite not having a good role. So post-buy 2024, he went at 90 in a really tough role to score.
00:49:10
Holmesy
I suppose my question is here, he his value if he's got the midfield role, but we we would need to see that 20 points upside to get him to that sort of high 80s, 90 mark to be value for us in our starting squads with an early buy as well. Is he someone that you're looking to to potentially lock into your side at this point?
00:49:27
Jon Harmey
I think you're going to get your 20 points upside. um every Every reporter you hear name him as being one of the standouts in the midfield. Let's have a look at their midfield. Who's left in their midfield from last year?
00:49:41
Jon Harmey
Newcombe? Nash and Ward. I said earlier in the podcast that Rochelle or Rankin needs to go into the Adelaide midfielder. Well, this is exactly the same scenario. They need somebody with a decent burst of pace in there to be a point of difference compared to the other guys. And I think that it's just going to be him.
00:50:00
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, I agree. And we get that opening round look. So he's going to be one of the highest owned forwards come opening round if he's got 50% plus center bounces and he's a mainstay in that midfield. So yeah, really like that. And I can see why the community is flocking there. It's getting harder and harder each year to find some hidden gems. So Lou, the next one I want to talk about is Sam Layla.
Sam Layla's Role in Richmond
00:50:23
Holmesy
Price at 54, the former number one pick.
00:50:27
Holmesy
Injury adjusted average of 63 last year. He had a ah hamstring and some niggling injuries. Once again, training reports are midfield role. Clearly, Richmond are talking him up as their number one pick to try and sell some hope in that in that Tigers midfield.
00:50:43
Holmesy
I never liked these picks because it's hard to predict what his upside will be. He was never a massive scorer in juniors because he he got drafted as that impact mid forward, right? He doesn't have stupid numbers like some of the pure mids.
00:50:56
Holmesy
What do we think about a Sam Layla considering it's still going to be Taranto Hopper and then a mixture of of some other guys through there?
00:51:05
Lew
I think we'll see more of the same. ah he's He's going to improve. So that 54 price point is going to be less than what he does this year, as is the nature of you know young, talented players like this. But he is an impact player, and I think that's where they're going to get the best football out of him.
00:51:21
Lew
We mentioned Dusty comparison a couple of minutes ago. This is obviously what Richmond are really hanging their hat on. They see Sam Lawler as the next Dusty Martin. I think the scoring is probably going to reflect that a little bit. I think, you know, he's going to spend a little bit of time forward. He's going to spend a little bit of time through the midfield.
00:51:40
Lew
As a young player, sometimes that can be the toughest sort of role to play because you can't really get some consistency at either. So, yeah. So without the buy, I do see a little bit of upside here and I certainly wouldn't be talking anybody out of selecting him to start. But I do think there's going to be some awkward scores here and I can see this being um at a little bit of a cheaper price point, but I can see this being a little bit like Ollie Holland's last season where maybe he's playing the role enough, maybe he's scoring just enough, but it's not really moving the needle at all in terms of valuable
00:52:14
Lew
value perspective and he's probably not going to be close enough or even nipping at the heels of you know a top 10 forward. So for me, I think I would just pass on this one.
00:52:25
Holmesy
Yeah, I've heard the the talk about you know if Jack Ross can go into that midfield late last year and an average 72, I think it was, don't quote me on that, but surely Sam Layla can go past that. And he may well, he may he may be that sort of 75 averaging player that we need him to. But when I look at a Jacob Hopper who's in that midfield full-time as a seasoned body, who's only able to average 82,
00:52:47
Holmesy
I find it hard to see Layla really breaking out and and and being a value pick for us. I think he's going to have a lot of middling scores, like you said, Lou. um I'm more than happy to eat my words and trade into him in round two round three if he's if he's really lighting it up and he's got the role.
00:53:03
Holmesy
um He'll go from a 54 price tag to maybe a 60, 62. He'll still be value and then then you can jump on there. So that's my thoughts on Sam Layla. Harmi, I needed to put this one in. I'm contractually obliged because Jordy's not here.
00:53:19
Holmesy
He's getting a bit of love and I don't quite understand it. Connor Buterick, priced at 48, having moved from the Gold Coast to the Dogs. He has a career high average of 74, but that was only from a two-game sample size. And outside of that, he's been a mid-60s guy to date.
00:53:35
Holmesy
And when you look at the Dogs defenders, outside of a Bailey Dale, they don't score. So you've got Dale averaging 92. You've got Williams averaging 77, but he plays a bit of wing.
00:53:46
Holmesy
And then everyone else under that averaging 60. So you can look at that two ways. You can look at them as saying they've recruited him for a reason to be ah a bit more of a lockdown, but also a distributor of halfback.
00:53:57
Holmesy
Or you can look at as that's the Dogs system and their defenders aren't scoring fantasy points. So Geordie loves him, but where do you sit on Conor Buttery?
00:54:07
Jon Harmey
Well, again, you'll be able to see this in round zero, the way that their defensive structure lines up. I always sort of felt that he would be a bit more locked down and I wasn't really so keen because of that fact. But it depends on the role that they give him. And I guess we have seen him score well at times when he does have a nice role at the Gold Coast.
Connor Buterick's Bulldogs Prospects
00:54:29
Jon Harmey
Bearing in mind, last season he was played in
00:54:30
Holmesy
Have we though? Have we have we seen it?
00:54:32
Jon Harmey
Yeah, we have. Last year you didn't see it because he was playing in the forward line. What a waste of time that was. um So, yeah, I mean, yep, there is a world where he goes very well, but I'm not so sure sure at this point in time, mate.
00:54:48
Lew
Just a couple of the track reports coming out of the Dogs is they like a few of these young guys coming through as a rebounding defender. I know that Yaquez, I'm sure of his first name.
00:54:59
Jon Harmey
Jax.
00:55:00
Lew
Yeah, he I'm never good with names.
00:55:01
Jon Harmey
Lucky Jax.
00:55:03
Lew
He's getting a bit of love as well. I just see Connor Buderich as a really good small defender, and that's what he started his career at and sort of got the hype early off the back of. So, um yeah, that's where I'm at with him.
00:55:18
Lew
i don't think the 48's enough.
00:55:18
Holmesy
the dogs yeah The dogs were so good on the attack last year, but then they were also getting found out on the turnover as well. And there was times where they just couldn't stop teams from scoring. So i I think he's been recruited to be a bit of a lockdown and a cog in their system to play a role at times. There might be some games where he gets off the chain a bit against some easier sides, but then you also might get a game where he scores a 30 or a 40, which is not what we're really after is that mid-price pick. So once again, opening round, you're going to see it. going to have a score in his system to decide whether you pick him and maybe it's a short-term play until he gets to his first buy and you jump off. But he's not someone I'm looking to target early on in the season.
00:55:59
Holmesy
Harmi, the last one before we quickfire through the the end, Jamari Ugalhagan, gone to Gold Coast on that one-year deal with his career on the line, priced at 44, and we have seen him average 62 and 60 in the past, and he was trajecting up.
00:56:15
Holmesy
He's not going to be the main guy at Gold Coast. You've got Ben King, I think it is, who's their goal square leading forward. So he doesn't leave that forward 50 and he allows the other guys, whether it's Ben and Ethan Reid, whether it's going to be a Jamara, whether it's been their other guy, I can't think of his name off the top of my head, ah Jed jeed Walter, to get up the ground.
00:56:33
Jon Harmey
Well,
00:56:36
Holmesy
All reports are he's flying and he's putting his best foot forward. And with that run of Richmond West Coast in the first two, yeah Could he get off to a flyer?
Jamara Ugle-Hagan's Impact at Gold Coast
00:56:45
Holmesy
i I kind of don't mind this one with the opening round look too.
00:56:49
Jon Harmey
well he's done it before, hasn't he? He's certainly averaged more than 44 in his career. So, look, again, depends what you're doing.
00:57:00
Jon Harmey
It's really hard to tell because Gold Coast are saying he's looking super fit and he's so happy. um
00:57:09
Holmesy
Which they have to to justify, right?
00:57:09
Jon Harmey
But this is what I was about to say, mate. Of course they're going to say that. They're going to say, oh, he's not going to go there. Look, it it says to me, sorry, I take confidence in the fact that he is training fully every session.
00:57:26
Jon Harmey
which he did nothing like that last year. So hopefully the penny has dropped for him. And if they can get the most out of him, great.
00:57:34
Holmesy
Thank
00:57:36
Jon Harmey
And he'll be playing every game and he will score 70, 65 sort of thing. So he could be a good pick. But we need to be pretty confident in that. They have an early buy and i'll just feel maybe it's after the buy that we jump on because he's just let it let it down so many times in last couple of years. You know, like he would have to really have had ah a great change in mindset in order to be a success for us.
00:58:10
Lew
See, I would have to start him.
00:58:10
Holmesy
yeah
00:58:11
Lew
I don't think I could jump on after the bye. I understand that he's got Melbourne immediately after it, but then he comes into Sydney and then Essendon, who had the um the highest paid defender in the game. So, look, Geelong, if he goes 65 as the second forward and passes the eye test, I think I'm happy to launch into this just based on what we've got available.
00:58:33
Lew
down that lower price end of the spectrum in the forward line. Eagles round one is a dream. I could definitely see him putting up a really nice pop score. And by pop score, I mean, you know, 80, which at the price point, it's smashing it out of the park and then goes into a Richmond. So I think you really want him to begin the season. That's where a lot of the cash generation is going to come from. And then, you know, maybe that starts to to taper off a little bit post-buy and you can jump into something or jump down into something with a little bit more confidence after that buy.
00:59:08
Holmesy
All right, Lou, this one is from good friend of the show, Jonathan Harmy. Tim Kelly priced at 63. We've heard a lot about him in the preseason. 86 and 97 two years prior. 79 average last five. coin That coincided with Harley Reid being out.
00:59:26
Holmesy
There's no chance he's back in that midfield for any significant minutes, right? he just He's not someone we look at even with forward status.
00:59:32
Lew
No, I don't think so. And if some of the West Coast Eagles kids come along nicely, ah you know, why would they be playing Tim Kelly? He's not going to be part of the future. He's come out and said football isn't really interesting him.
00:59:46
Lew
ah Lately, I think I would rather give that selection to to one of the kids and try fast track that development because there is a lot of talent at the Eagles as much as we do um tend to take the piss out of them a little bit. So, no, Tim Kelly, definitely not on the cards for me.
01:00:02
Holmesy
Harmy, Riley Philthorpe. So, mentioned, best young forward in the game alongside Sam Darcy at the moment. Priced at 83, so that's up from 68 the year prior. We know it's very hard for key forwards to be fany fantasy relevant. Think of Jeremy Cameron, you know, maxes out at 90.
01:00:19
Holmesy
Is there any world where you started Riley Philthorpe knowing that he doesn't have an early buy?
01:00:24
Jon Harmey
Well, he's no Tim Kelly in the forward line, but he's somebody worth considering. i think you said, could he break out? I think he has broken out. It was last season.
01:00:36
Jon Harmey
And I think that's all we really need to know. He's already coming in at a fairly high price because he's done it. And I don't think that he's really going to have a a huge uplift. He's never going to be a 100 guy. So, um yeah, not somebody I'd really like to start. But anyway, no early buy. So you could take him.
01:00:59
Holmesy
Yeah, he he was good last year and he had he had an injury in there as well. But yeah, key forward at that price, not someone I'm looking at in my starting squad. Unfortunately, Lou, finish us off sorry with one of your Port boys, Todd Marshall. So priced at 38, missed the entire year last year with injury, rumored to be training in defense. And we have seen it in some of the match sim reports that we've seen and Jordy and yourself being down there.
01:01:26
Holmesy
For me, it screams third lockdown tall defender, but we have seen like a Harry Himmelberg in that mold be someone that will lock down, but also be trusted with distribution. Is he a good kick? Is he someone that we look at? Or yeah, just talk me through him before we finish.
Todd Marshall's Defensive Role
01:01:42
Lew
Yeah, I was probably hotter earlier in the preseason just before some of these names have popped up, what we've um already discussed today. Priced at 38, we know he's 25 points better than that when he's played as a forward. He is a good kick and he is quite good around the ground. He's quite nimble.
01:02:01
Lew
um If he's going to be the third tall, he needs to to go ahead of one of our tall defenders. And it's not going to be a Sarver. It's not going to be a Lira Lira. It's potentially going to be a Brandon Zirk Thatcher. um And so if that's the case, if he's floating third tall, maybe he's taking some intercept marks.
01:02:21
Lew
I can see a little bit of upside there, but for me... you know He's going to be raw in that role. I don't know if it's going to you know be like a duck to water type thing. It's it's definitely an experiment. It's not a guy who's been necessarily known as a swing man. So Porter trying some new things. I wouldn't be surprised if Todd Marshall starts the season in the sand full just to to find out whether that translates to some actual football. But um Yeah, still a little bit of fleeting interest here, especially with that early fixture where, you know, potentially he can get on the back of, you know, eight marks, for example, and really just blow that break even out of the water.
01:03:00
Holmesy
Yeah, I mean, we did see Finn Laysen put up some respectable scores at times for Port over the last couple of years in defence, right? So... Yeah, big watch on roll. You're not going to see it in opening round, but just one to one to monitor.
01:03:12
Holmesy
Boys, that's going to wrap up a huge forward episode. Got a lot out of that, so really appreciate you. We had a listener message in during the week, and I quite like this idea now that AFL Fantasy has changed, and we've now got the foes ability where you can check in on other people's teams. So I'm putting you on the spot here, Lou, but what is the name of your AFL Fantasy team so that some of the listeners can start to add add you and and have a look during the season for how you're going
01:03:40
Lew
ah Okay, well, at the moment, it's red hot sherry peppers. But I do have a tendency to to change my teammate team name every year to a terrible pun. So um yeah, well, I'll try and keep you updated on that. But yeah, might might forget to change it.
01:03:58
Holmesy
yeah beautiful we'll ah we'll we'll keep the listeners informed if that does change Lou, Harmi what's your team name?
01:04:05
Jon Harmey
Well, I was actually a bit like Lou. I used to flip mine around, but ever since I started going all right, i just had to keep the same team name. It's Herdys Heroes.
01:04:15
Holmesy
Beautiful. And I'm Holmesies Heroes. So listeners, if you want to add us into the foes section so that you can keep a track of how we're going, we're hopefully going to do some more engagement things throughout the year. And I think that's that's a really good start.
01:04:28
Holmesy
Make sure you are following us on X at PodPod AFL. I'm at Holmesies Heroes. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.
01:04:40
Holmesy
We'll be back next week after having seen some footy with the with the State of Origin game. And as i as I mentioned, there will be a team reveal from Louis and Harmy. And as I keep saying this, Louis is waving his hands at me.
01:04:52
Holmesy
What have you got to say, mate?
01:04:53
Lew
Have you got a prediction for who shoots the lights out next week? We saw my man Jason Horne-Francis and even Jai Simpkin, I think, from memory, just look a million bucks and con their way into some fantasy sides.
01:05:02
Jon Harmey
Yes.
01:05:08
Lew
Do we have a prediction for for someone who just turns it on and and gets a lot of fantasy interest off the back of it?
01:05:12
Jon Harmey
Yeah. Yeah. Is Tim Kelly playing in the Western Australian team?
01:05:18
Holmesy
don't know about you, Lou, but I can't wait for young guns, Stephen Cornelio and Jager O'Meara to light it up in the dominant West west Australian in midfield.
01:05:26
Lew
You've stolen mine. ah so
01:05:29
Holmesy
We didn't coordinate that, by the way. The Vicks are going to absolutely dominate the West Australians.
01:05:33
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
01:05:35
Holmesy
It's going to be very interesting. But yeah, I'm just i'm just happy that there's some some live footy that will be back on the TV.
01:05:42
Lew
ah Are they playing five on the interchange?
01:05:44
Holmesy
It's more than that, isn't it?
01:05:46
Holmesy
Isn't it? I think it's like eight because the clubs are going to manage, the clubs have full permission on how much game time each player can have and and whatnot. So it's bit of an exhibition feel.
01:05:46
Lew
Ah.
01:05:54
Lew
New rock rules.
01:05:56
Holmesy
That's actually a great point, Luke. We might actually get a look at that. So we will have a bit to dissect. And if you are at Moreira's Magic Season Guide holder, I will be releasing a special podcast that I recorded with DT Lemon on his podcast a few weeks ago where he interviewed me and it's all about how to win a hat in AFL fantasy. It's the...
01:06:15
Holmesy
probably the most important podcast I've recorded all preseason. So if you're not a ah subscriber, head over to morerasmagic.com.au to get your subscription there. We've been putting out a bunch of content.
01:06:27
Holmesy
It's really been flying off. So we will check in next week. Have a good week. Enjoy the origin and we'll speak soon. Bye.
01:06:35
Lew
I...