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Injury Crisis! | Strategy Round Table | AFL Fantasy Q & A #PODPOD
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Holmesy - Holmesysheroes
Lewy - Hawk Tuah (Pittonet Thang)
Harmey - Hirdy’s Heroes
Sam - Mandaclawrian FC
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Transcript
Introduction and Current Challenges
00:00:18
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod brought to you by Moreira's Magic. I'm your host Holmesy, three-time top 10 finisher and twice runner-up in AFL Fantasy Classic. We are back after another round and we have seen some injury carnage. All of our teams are shot with injury and underperforming players, sorry, um and we're here to
Controversy and Injuries Discussion
00:00:38
Speaker
review it all. No John Harmy today, Louis. We do need to touch on this just off the top, right? So...
00:00:45
Speaker
You can confirm in the group chat that John Harmy came in and said that he's unavailable for the pod after the Rosie captain, correct? That was that was the the direct timestamp? That was about the timeline. Yep, you are correct, Holmesy.
00:00:58
Speaker
Yeah, just apparently a work meeting, but the timing is just very, very coincidental, I would have thought. But, Lou, we do have you back this week, mate. How are you travelling and good for Port to have a win this week, eh?
00:01:09
Speaker
It was good for Port to have a win up against the Bombers. um Thank Christ for that. That would have been...
Performance Reviews and Implications
00:01:17
Speaker
A little bit grim had we lost that, but good to be here talking a bit of fantasy. It's been quite the week, I think, for every single coach. I think yeah everybody's copped a bullet this week, and I'm really excited to dissect it. I think...
00:01:32
Speaker
We're all in the same boat at this point. it's ah it's You almost have to laugh, don't you? So keen to see what the fallout to this is. I also think that there's going to be a little bit of diversion from the pack from now on because there's a lot of options out there which we'll dissect in this podcast. But um yeah, those those starting teams, they're definitely going to start to differ a bit.
In-depth Injury Impact Analysis
00:01:59
Speaker
Yeah, you say a bullet, Lou, a bullet or three or four or five, and we're not even at Teams on Thursday yet, but yeah, keen to see how it all plays out. Jordy, as the only respectable ranking coach member on the pod, welcome. And and as I said, thank you for bringing some some credit to the pod this week.
00:02:17
Speaker
Yeah, good to be on. ah Yeah, Louis called me today as well and they had lots to chat about. i'm sort of keen to see Louis unleash, I think, on some of these options. So ah yeah, good to be back on. And as you said, Port with the win was there Sunday. So that was ah that was good.
00:02:32
Speaker
Except for the rosy injury. that was Seeing that live was heartbreaking. He was watching that
Round Recap and Trade Considerations
00:02:40
Speaker
as well. like The commentators were trying to do the whole, oh, maybe it's cramp. doesn't look Doesn't look that bad. But every angle that they slowed that down, showing his knee hyperextend, the way he couldn't move far out, that was brutal. and And shout out to Sam, good friend of the pod, who took Rosie as is as his number one pick in draft this year. He can join me as having Errol as my number one pick. Now not here for the majority of the season. There's...
00:03:05
Speaker
absolute draft killers. But as I mentioned, no harm you this week. So we may as well get into the round that was. And Lou, I'll get you to kick us off with your score, your rank and your Stadio Dossie Picks of the Week.
00:03:16
Speaker
ah So i scored a 16.43, which to be honest with you, I was quite happy about actually. I teamed what was pretty much a full, ah sorry, fielded what was pretty much a full team of rookies on the weekend. I think I had about four premiums left from the from the
Trade Strategies and Philosophies
00:03:33
Speaker
previous round. So I'll certainly take that. ah My rank though has blown out a little bit to 44,000. So I've definitely got a little bit of work to do there.
00:03:44
Speaker
My Stato pick of the week, I'm going to give it to Todd Marshall. i was pretty bullish on this guy all through the preseason, and he looked good last week but did the ankle. I'm glad I held the faith there, and and he sort of showed his chops in that back half of Port. Got in involved with a little bit of junk time too, which is exactly what we want to see from a player like that. So if he can replicate some 70-plus scores from here, he should make...
00:04:10
Speaker
Plenty of cash. ah And the Dossie pick of the week has got to Blackiston. um you know Backing up that round one score with what was a 44 was pretty disappointing. I think that's one that i was probably a little bit too optimistic in. And he's going to be added to a long list of trade-outs over the next couple of weeks. That's for sure.
00:04:33
Speaker
Oh, I mean, mate, you ticked a lot of boxes for us, right? Mature age, number one ruck, decent decent amount of time in that position as well. And there are times where he actually looks elite for for a tall guy, some of the stuff he does around the ground, but then you just don't see him for quarters at a time and gives away lots of free kicks against the bigger ruckman. So, yeah, he's... He's been a bit of a fail so far and it's not getting any easier for him in terms of the match-up. so And yeah, quick shout-out to Marshall. that That junk time, Louis, you i don't know if you were there live, but that was that was disgusting, as it was for Butters as well, late which we'll get to.
00:05:10
Speaker
Yeah, that's exactly what we want to see
Navigating Injuries and Rule Changes
00:05:12
Speaker
though, isn't it? And he looks good in the role too. His ball use is is pretty elite back there. So job security was a slight concern, I know, for some coaches, but I think he's bought himself plenty of time back there and they're going to persist with that for sure.
00:05:27
Speaker
Beautiful. I was unfortunately next, so I had the 16.51, which to be honest, not actually that too upset about. Had some pretty horrendous rookie and mid-pricer scores, but was carrying the Darcy Cameron over the the weekend as well. So that's an extra premium that I didn't have on field.
00:05:44
Speaker
ah My rank is 40,284 so joining you in the 40k club Lou and hopefully we can start to peg that back a little bit. My Stato pick of the week is Jack Steele.
00:05:56
Speaker
ah Copped a lot of heat from the AFL media but also a lot of the other podcasts last week about the fact that they thought the game might be going past him a little bit slow and and not able to be up to the pace of the game and We held fat on this podcast saying that, yeah, he's probably not the player that he once was, but he'll be better for the run. And and boy, did he reward us on the weekend with that 1.38.
00:06:17
Speaker
Was back to doing Jack Steel things. Turned the ball over at times, but I mean, he's playing for Melbourne. They're not a good side. So it's it's unrealistic to think he's going to be the best ball user. And he tackled and marked like we saw he was able to do back in the day in 31 touches. It's very pleasing to see.
00:06:34
Speaker
My Dossie Pick of the Week, and this was a punt and hasn't paid off at all, but Matthias Filippo, 31, had some CBAs but didn't didn't get near it. Low time on ground. Unfortunately, I've got forced bullets that I'll need to trade out, but he is definitely a priority to get rid of soon. Jordy.
00:06:54
Speaker
Yep, so I ended up getting 17.27,
Cash Management and Trade Value
00:06:57
Speaker
which is not too bad. That pulls me into a rank of 13,839. went up from not too bad, keep chipping away. The stator pick of the week is Jack Sinclair. So he went with that 122, bit of a tougher matchup, but got it done. I heard he had like a plus 24 in like 30 seconds or something, which is exactly what we want to see.
00:07:20
Speaker
um A bit of a story with Sinclair, actually changed McHurcher to him ah just like one minute before the bounce in round one. um So that's been a bit of a lucky pick for me. So, yeah, he's the Stato pick of the week. And the dossier pick is Myles Bergman with a 46. So Port Adelaide had 1,900 points. Marshall's getting in on the chip-chip. All of this guy on the chip-chip. I'm there live watching the game and I can see Bergman.
00:07:48
Speaker
All he's doing is worrying about the defence, Carr's defensive structure. It's like he didn't, I mean, he spent a lot of time in the midfield, right, in the pre-season. He just looked lost out there in defence. He basically played 100% defence and didn't get in any of the chip-chip. So he's actually gone for me this week. Hang on, hang on. So what you're saying is an AFL player actually played defence.
00:08:12
Speaker
that's what you're That's what you're saying? You're upset for for playing a role in the side? Mate, he's supposed to be in the midfield, right? Yeah, it's just disappointing anyways. ah I even did a tweet in in the morning and said, Bergman, looking at you, high tackles today.
00:08:28
Speaker
i don't know how many you got, but just, yeah, um didn't ah didn't go near it. So
Injury Management and Rookie Pool
00:08:34
Speaker
he's a dossier pick of the week. I mean, wasn't wasn't there alarm bells when you were literally at the game and you were sending out our group chat screenshots of the photos you'd taken of him warming up with the defenders?
00:08:44
Speaker
I did, yeah. But... Yeah, i don't I try not. It was like about five minutes before the lockout. I could have changed it, but I hate doing that as well, even though i just said I did that with Sinclair. So I just left it Anyway, it's all good. All burger, no chips. Yeah.
00:09:00
Speaker
Yeah, look, unfortunately, that's we we kind of spoke about it in the preseason but didn't get a lot of traction. But it's those Harry Perryman types, right? The jack of all trades that just switch their roles up to play the need in the side. And um unfortunately, that's what we're seeing with Bergman. so I suppose you are um mean ah you still got to get 21, 22 on field this week, Jordy. But at least he's he's missing this week and he's not going to lose you a lot of cash. And hopefully there's not any injuries next week and you can move off him, right?
00:09:28
Speaker
Yeah, spot on. he is He's gone, I think. And we'll talk about these defenders, but i'm going to have to pick one of them off um to go to. And I've got plenty of cash. So we'll see what we can do.
00:09:40
Speaker
with With Rosie being out, you don't think there's any chance that he goes into the midfield? Or you trade it out and just go back into him later if he actually shows he's got the role? Yeah, I think so. And like he's he's listed as one to two weeks. so there's no like he might not come back next week. um And his's his break-even is like 105. So ah just don't want to lose another 50k cash on him. So i am flicking him.
00:10:05
Speaker
Yeah, fair enough. Boys, now that we've had a week of trading, I really like when we did this last year where we just
Strategic Trade Decisions
00:10:12
Speaker
kind of spoke about our trades from the previous week and a little bit of philosophy about what we were trying to achieve. So my trades for this week, unfortunately, weren't great, but I still think in part of it, the system was there and the processes, they just didn't quite pay off. so I went Goulden to Miller as that forced trade with the Goulden injury.
00:10:32
Speaker
And then, you know, Miller actually looked okay, had the role, didn't get the kickouts that he did the previous week, but we saw what those other Adelaide defenders did. They chipped around and unfortunately it wasn't Miller's night to get involved in that. So actually don't hate that pick. Hopefully it pays off in the next couple of weeks. I mean, coaches that traded into Lockie Ash last year for that 60 or whatever it was, and then he goes on and and goes on a tear. So Not willing to give up on that one just yet, but obviously 74 was quite disappointing.
00:11:02
Speaker
And then I went Coleman to Sorong. Now, I saw, i thought the tag might come, but took the punt on Melbourne being ah a good matchup regardless. And we did see that Brayshaw went nuts, Bolton went nuts, even Murphy Reid had a really good score for him. So the points were there. it was just unfortunate that they ran ah a death tag with Tholstrup pretty much all the way up until three quarter time and and that was done. So unfortunately, Sorong probably ends up being a a trade for me at some point soon.
00:11:32
Speaker
ah But hopefully I can get a bit of a ceiling score against Richmond this week in the Cyclone Boys and it might not be as as bad of a pick. But my my philosophy was value because we're going to get to it in our Hot Topics soon. But that magic number has come down so much that all of our high price premiums at the moment are just overs or maybe even fair value.
00:11:52
Speaker
And I just wasn't willing to trade into that. So we'll get to that when we go into our Hot Topics a bit later. But Louis, what were your trades? ah So I did Goulden to Murdoch, trying to generate a little bit of cash. Was looking really good after the game on Sunday, but unfortunately we have found out that Murdoch's going to be out with a hamstring, but that cash will come. So not too upset by that. And then on the other end, I've got Colby McKercher to Braden Cook. So generating a little bit of cash there. As far as I'm concerned, Colby was a failed pick. So I'm
00:12:27
Speaker
So that gives me 1.7 mil to spend this week. Unfortunately, have copped a couple of bullets, which was always the risk with carrying over cash. But it's also given me you know heaps of flexibility to to work with over the next couple of weeks. So ah generally pretty happy with those trades, to be honest.
00:12:46
Speaker
Louis, you reckon you're going to have that 1.7 mil on field by the time round 24 finishes or might you get a bit stuck? That's a lot of cash. Yeah, look, there's a lot of, um i think there's a lot of room in fantasy for new strategies and I ah think I can keep that going up and we'll see how we go. We'll see if we can pump that up to two mil, three mil ah and see how it goes.
00:13:09
Speaker
i've heard I've heard that because because of how we've started that you've actually just changed tactic now and you're going for the the team value um crypto. So you're just trying to pivot away from that. So we'll see what that bank gets to. Yeah.
00:13:22
Speaker
yeah Yeah, spot on. i think that might be a good ah good course to to set myself on. And now, Jordy, as someone
Player Performance and Rule Impact
00:13:30
Speaker
that we actually want to hear the trades because you're going well, so what did you do?
00:13:34
Speaker
Pretty much the same as Louis. Obviously, Gordon to Murdoch had to get that in, but I i ended up going Lindsay to Cook. So obviously, Lindsay got dropped on that Friday. So I just thought, oh, cash gen-wise, who knows? He might not be how to come he might not come back in.
00:13:48
Speaker
He could come in this way. He could be at the buy. It could be whenever. so I just said, you know what? I'm just going get rid of him to Cook. But I originally had Bergman out to Cook, which would have been actually a ah better. So they were my trades, and it left with 861K in the bank. um which is not, yeah, as you said, I didn't love having over a meal. So that just coming under the meal, i was like, oh, yep, that's all good. oh'll I'll roll with that. So um they were my trades in the end.
00:14:16
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, no, don't mind it. ah Yeah, we're going to get into the hot topics. We'll do that in a sec. But the Pod Pod Challenge, it is nice to see we have a team inside the top 100 and ranked 17th if you don't mind. So I don't like the team name. I'll win a cap before Frio and I can't see the end of it. But, you know, we don't,
00:14:34
Speaker
We don't really like that around here, being ah being a Frio man, but ranked 17th, that's really good to see. Hopefully, we see some more Pod Pod members charging into that top 100. And as a reminder, the winner of the Pod Pod Challenge will receive that custom AFL Fantasy ring from our friends at supercoachchampion.com. But boys, let's get into our hot topics and bye.
00:14:56
Speaker
where do Where do we need to start? So the injuries. The injuries are starting to pile up and it makes sense. The AFL has done everything in its power to put the pressure on on their players. So they have reduced the preseason in length. they Now the clubs aren't allowed to contact the players in the offseason, which means the offseasons are longer and and the players are getting up to more.
00:15:17
Speaker
And then with all these rule changes, the game has just quickened up and they really only have that one proper hit out too before round zero. So we are seeing hamstring after hamstring. So we've got what?
00:15:28
Speaker
Connor Rosey three to four months away now after I believe it was tearing the the tendon off the bone, requires surgery. We've got Petrarca missing four to six weeks with the hammy. Libba's now out for two. i Cheese out for six.
00:15:42
Speaker
Laird, not a hammy but a calf, one to two. Worrell we're unsure of. Dawson we're unsure of. And now we hear Murdoch out for two to three weeks with that hammy too, which, man, we love that guy.
00:15:54
Speaker
Playing through a hammy the way that he did far out is impressive, but missing two to three weeks. And now all of a sudden you combine a Bergman with an ankle you know If we get some other bullets come teams, we might be finding ourselves only fielding 18 or maybe even less. So let's start there, Jordy. The hot topic is that the magic number has significantly decreased again. so There's lots of coaches theorizing why this has happened, whether it's now that there's five players on the bench, which means there's more players out outperforming their price. We have had some serious rookies generate a lot of value combined with maybe not as many ceiling scores from our upper end primos.
00:16:32
Speaker
But either way, we find ourselves in a situation where we've got two primos that we need to probably trade out this week, being Petrarca and Rosie. And a lot of the premium options that we would like to go to finding themselves priced very highly, at least compared to what you know we know of the game over the last few years. so I suppose, where do we start?
00:16:53
Speaker
Do you think these premiums are overpriced or do you think that because of the new rules and the way that the teams are playing in this open footy, that maybe this is a new normal that we need to kind of adapt to? Jeez, it's so hard. So, I mean, Sunday night when lockout came, I think I did
Premium Players and Scoring Trends
00:17:10
Speaker
about four or five different changes of where I'm going to go. So, um yeah, keen to discuss it here. But I think probably like what you're saying there, Nick Dacos,
00:17:21
Speaker
He's like, Christ, he's at 120. He's quite highly traded in. These new rules and the transitions up, you know, referencing Vam's to tweet, do you just go for him and is he going to sustain it because of the new rules? And that's crossed my mind. He has come into my team at some point in the last two days, but then I'm going, oh, do I really want to pay that?
00:17:42
Speaker
I also need to get a defender. So I'm i'm looking there. um And I think, I mean, without ah trades, I've got 19 at the moment. um So hopefully if there's no more bullets, I'll i'll use those two trades and get 21, but I'm not going to have 22 this week. So it's a pretty interesting week and I think we're going to dive, I think a lot of teams are going to diverge, right? So we're going to, you know, someone like for me anyway, I have Cook, I had Cook in the midfield, so I can actually go Petrarca to any line, which is,
00:18:14
Speaker
Very handy, but obviously some coaches can't do that. They might have to go for a forward. Do they go down to a Marshall, as you said, or or grind mines is quite highly traded in as well. So it's a pretty interesting week. um But I am a bit nervy paying up ah for these guys.
00:18:31
Speaker
But Dacos could turn my hands, I think. Yeah, I mean, Lou, it's so interesting, right? Because it has been a long time since we have seen players average these consistently high numbers for any decent part of the season, right? We know players get off to a hot start. That happens. But, I mean, you've got to go back to 2021 where we had, you know, your Jack Steeles, Took Millers, Rory Lairds that were going that sort of 120.
00:18:58
Speaker
And then you've got to go even further back for your Tom Mitchells that were the 125, 130 and your Tom Rockliffs that really just look like out-of-the-box seasons compared to you know the the fantasy landscape that we've seen at least over the last sort of three to four years. So, i mean, I asked Jordy, but I'll ask you as well, like if we if you were going in Nick Dacos, can we see a ah Tom Mitchell-like season where he's going 120, 125, 130?
Sustaining Team Value
00:19:25
Speaker
Or do we think these players are going to come back?
00:19:29
Speaker
it's It's a tough question, Holmesy. Look, personally, I'd probably like to look at what the past is and I think that we haven't seen those 120 players in quite some time and when they have, there've been players that maybe don't necessarily get tagged week in week out like some of the most effective players that we do see in fantasy these days, I think.
00:19:52
Speaker
ah Coaches are all over those most effective players and I think you know With the game trending the way it is, how damaging some of these players can be, I think that that's going to be more important than ever to to be able to stop them. so you know in terms of a Nick Dacos, do I think he has a 120 averaging season in him? I do, um but I'm not sure that these consistently high scores that we're seeing currently from a range of different players ah are going to remain the same. I think what we see when rule changes come in in the AFL is that
00:20:26
Speaker
um a couple of clever teams, a couple of clever coaches get on top of them really quickly and work them out. And then um the rest of the pack sort of does their homework homework on that and works out how that can sort of be mitigated a little bit. So ah think we're in a little bit of a bubble at the moment.
00:20:43
Speaker
How long we're going to be in that bubble, I'm not sure. And it's certainly affecting the magic number. I know I'm going back and forth in my head sort of know trying to to target that value, but also Being um you know fully aware that these premiums are going to be what gets the points on field and not knowing when that magic number is sort of going to settle does make me a little bit nervous. so It's going to require a little bit of a leap of faith. I think you know it's sort of obvious to say, but where the um the value can sort of meet in the middle of the projection that you've got for that player is always going to be best, but
00:21:22
Speaker
That certainly at the moment isn't actually the case. you know We've got some of these players priced, we said Nick Dacos, he's priced at 120. But and going through this list here, we've got nearly, what, 40 players, 30 players maybe that are priced above 100 We sat on this podcast for months in the preseason talking about how midfielders are struggling to go too much over that 100 mark and that that list has really dwindled down. So what we're seeing at the moment is total opposite to to what we've discussed in the preseason.
00:21:58
Speaker
um So it it is a lot of guesswork, Holmesy. I'll throw to you, mate. What's what's your two cents on this? Yeah, well, my my concern is that i I do think there are going to be maybe some premiums that do score quite highly this year. Like these halfbacks have so much access to points. You think like a Lockie Ash, he's just, as Jordy says, the man at the moment. He's just got so much access to footy back there.
Trade Planning Amid Uncertainty
00:22:23
Speaker
Zorko, your Dacos boys. But my concern is, and I'll go to Jordy as well, is that
00:22:29
Speaker
We had some good rookies to start and we still do have some good rookies, but they are actually starting to dwindle. And I actually think it's a bit of a false economy using all of this upgrade quote unquote upgrade money now to take a Rosie who's lost money up to to someone. So say you're you're using 150K to get Rosie up to a big dog premium. That was 150K that you were probably going to be using in upgrade season later on down the track.
00:22:56
Speaker
I'll use my shit team here, but I mean, I've got Blackiston making no money, Windsor making no money, Philippot making no money, Parrish making no money. You combine that with Murdoch, who's now out for a few weeks. If we lose a Carroll, we've already lost a Lindsay.
00:23:11
Speaker
Where is the upgrade money coming from? I think it's a bit of a false economy because coaches cashed up last week going down to these rookies so they feel like they've got this money in the bank to spend. But when you actually think of your whole squad, you're actually using money that is going to kick the can down the road which will actually make it hard for you to upgrade and make the trades you want later on down the track, Jordy. So how do you feel about all of that?
00:23:34
Speaker
Yeah, definitely. And like my team, I've got Vicentini. So he got dropped as well. that's I've got 500K there sitting on the bench, you know. so And Carroll, like is he going to get names? Who knows? I think you did mention him. but um lemayers too like Lamayers And even Dovitson, like I mean he just he popped a low one. i'm sort of waiting for that pop score. And Lombard too I didn't even mention. like what's Like what's going to happen with him?
00:24:01
Speaker
So yeah, it does worry me. I think for me – I i was talking to Louis about this today. um'm think I'm going to try and plan my trades. I know we just saw eight hamstrings this weekend and we could get another eight hamstrings, which would be an absolute disaster for the AFL if one of these other players that we've got in our team does one.
00:24:19
Speaker
um But I guess it's hard to, you know we can't really forecast that. But I'm going to try and plan from now. for the next three or four weeks, what are the upgrades that I want, who I want after the buy. Like you've got Messiah, you've got Whitfield, you got Callaghan, got all these guys coming down.
00:24:34
Speaker
I'm going to try and map map a plan and see if i what the best option is this week. So then do I need that cash? Because like you said, Parrish isn't making money. Say McCluggage comes down or Callaghan, you probably only need 250,
00:24:49
Speaker
And as you said, that rookie, what saying before, 150K from Rosie on top, That could be crucial in getting rid of your parish up to a guy that will stay there until the buyers. So um I'm going to try and plan.
Rookie Performance and Strategy
00:25:01
Speaker
Obviously, we might get bullets, but um that's sort of what I'm going to do to see where I'm going to go. i don't mind holding more cash in the bank this week. Yeah, I think where the concern sort of lies is if we're spending all this cash this early to get onto these expensive premiums, what we sort of know in in years past is that the best rookies obviously play opening round in round one. They're named because, you know, they're ready to go.
00:25:28
Speaker
I think what we see during the season is there's certainly guys that will get opportunity through injury and will prove you know us wrong or or you know sort of find a best 22 spot in that side for the rest of the year. But the quality of the depth of those rookies that comes through from now on just isn't going to be as strong. So we're spending all this money. We're we're we're getting all our upgrades. we're We're going to have to downgrade to...
00:25:53
Speaker
to other rookies and then you know from there are you potentially trading out of what is best 22 rookies a little bit early to try and get these upgrades as soon as possible and sort of hamstringing yourself at the bottom end of your best 22 or your 30, your group of ah players in your team. so it's It's going to be a balance this year and yeah that i'm I'm probably leaning towards really wanting to still target that value despite having that cash in the bank because we've been saying it for years, it it is a value game and just because you've got the money in your bank doesn't mean that you necessarily have to spend it.
00:26:33
Speaker
um I think it can get... quite dangerous in that respect that, you know, I'm seeing a lot of coaches, they want to pay up for one hundred and twenty s They want to pay up for 115s. And that's going to look good for, you know, four or five, even six weeks. But eventually, ah that's going to come back to bite you and you're going to start running out of cash and you you're going to start squeezing things, um you know, for you in terms of your rookies, but also to get up to your premiums. And I just think it's a hole that you can burrow down a little bit too far and find yourself...
00:27:03
Speaker
not having the available funds to be able to get as much points on field as you can later on in the season, which is really what matters. you know it's It's a marathon. It's not a sprint. I think there's a lot of coaches up and about in the rankings at the moment that can potentially find themselves um in a bit of a pickle in in six to eight weeks if they're not keeping an eye on how that cash generation is actually being developed.
00:27:29
Speaker
Well, let's let's talk trades then before we go into just some individual players before we finish with the question. So, I mean, we've got some good perspective here on the pod. Lou, you just mentioned that you've got 1.7 million, you have Petrarca and you have Rosie and you don't have DPP for Petrarca, do you?
00:27:45
Speaker
No, i do. yeah You do? Okay, so you've got DPP. Jordi has ah a bit less money, but has DPP. And then yeah I don't have much money in the bank. I think I've got about 150 odd, but I don't have DPP for Petrarca. So i I will need to trade in a forward if I go down that avenue. So Jordi, talk to me a little bit about what you're trying to achieve this week with your trades to set you up.
00:28:09
Speaker
Yep, so i think I still want to hunt for value and obviously get my team value going in the right direction. So obviously Bergman, is I just want to get rid of him. So I want to go him to a ah premium. So someone like, well i mean, we'll talk about these prices, but someone like Josh Dacos, that's an upgrade there and he can be there for hopefully the year with it as a top six defender. The other trade, I'm looking at potentially getting a Jack Watkins in.
00:28:37
Speaker
now That is for cash. We saw Rosie go out. Bergman's out now. He got a 95. He's going to be there, I think.
Handling Premium Injuries
00:28:48
Speaker
He could probably make, I mean, Louis did some numbers today. If he goes at 60, he should make about 200K. Do we trust we trust those numbers from Louis?
00:28:55
Speaker
and um surely
00:29:00
Speaker
i um So yeah, anyway, I think I'm probably going to maybe go Watkins in, but that would leave me probably another million in the bank. um So what that's why I want to sort of map out what I'm going to do. The other trade is just getting rid of Petrarca or Rosie and and getting another premium in, but I'm not really improving my team. I'm just getting two premiums, I guess. I guess I am improving Bergman, but...
00:29:25
Speaker
Yeah, that's sort of where I'm at is those two decisions of of what I do. then And the other one is do I just go and day cost and also get Watkins, do a bit of 50-50? So that's just, yeah, my thoughts at the moment.
00:29:40
Speaker
Yeah, i mean, it's it's tricky though, right? Because you do have the three, Rosie, Petrarca, Bergman. And out of the three, Bergman is the most likely, what is well, will come back the quickest, right? But he's going to lose the most amount of money too. And Petrarca is a top six forward where we know Bergman is not at a top eight ah top six defender, sorry.
00:30:00
Speaker
But yeah, it's it's so you would you would prioritize trading out a Bergman and a Rosie over a Petrarca, for example. yeah Yeah, definitely. I think Petrarca is 4-6, so he probably is a trade, right?
00:30:13
Speaker
If he's 6 weeks, that's a long time. If he's 4 weeks, could you hold that as a forward? with that I mean, I've got DPP, it's not affecting my forward line. I can actually use him this week as a loop. I could use him as a loop in the next 3 weeks.
00:30:29
Speaker
I'm happy to let him go for one more week and reassess. I can always trade him next week, but it also gives me the option of holding him as well because there's not many forward options at the moment.
00:30:40
Speaker
So, yeah, I think
Mid-season Trade Tactics
00:30:43
Speaker
Rosie and Bergman are higher priorities. yeahp Yeah, no, I agree with that, I i think. I'd need to think about it a bit more, but it it makes sense for me. I mean, Bergman just has to go. So if you do end up getting stuck with Petrarca, yes, it's going to sting, um but you do know that when he does come back, he's a ah top six forward, um albeit you're probably going to have Rao back at that time.
00:31:05
Speaker
Louis, what are you thinking about with your 1.7
00:31:10
Speaker
ah Look, um ah don't want to half-ass a strategy. ah you know I've got the money where I can double upgrade quite significantly, but something something irks me about upgrading on both ends of this trade into guys who I consider overpriced. It kind of makes...
00:31:30
Speaker
last week's double ground ah double downgrade just feel a little bit pointless. I've done that to generate cash. I'm immediately splurging it the following week on guys that I don't actually believe are priced fairly, i suppose. So um for me, I'm probably going to upgrade on one end of the spectrum.
00:31:50
Speaker
That guy's going to be as close to value as I can, I think. you know That's going to be tricky. Potentially, I'm going to have to overpay a little bit on one of these guys. But on the other end, I ah still want to keep generating that cash. For example, Jordy mentioned Jack Watkins.
00:32:07
Speaker
I've definitely got him circled. i think in terms of the fixture, um the role should be a little bit better. He's had two games under his belt now, mature age, sandful pig. The market share is quite nice for a rookie.
00:32:22
Speaker
you know he's He's somebody that I definitely want to target and he's got the break even to really kickstart that cash generation again. So in some ways, I might be going backwards still in terms of ah points on field this week, but I think that that cash generation is going to serve me well ah you know in two months' time when I've got a little bit more cash to use to get more points on the field and and slowly catch up on on some other coaches. So, you know, I've got Bergman. He's got to go. I think that role is just not what we desired, but he's quite lowly owned. So he's he's probably not too relevant to a lot of the coaches listening. Rosie, on the other hand, definitely is relevant. This guy's a trade, 100%. We saw that Goulden, you know, I don't know how many coaches actually held him, but if they did,
00:33:11
Speaker
They've kind of been stitched up, right? They've copped a Rosie injury. They've copped a Petrarca injury. And, you know, if they held Goulden, they've got three injuries. That's not a corner I want to paint myself in. So for me, Rosie's got to go Where you go from there, look, personally, I think you probably do jump across to another premium.
00:33:30
Speaker
We'll discuss those premiums a little bit later on in the podcast and sort of the direction to go from there. In terms of Petrarca, this one's a little bit tricky. I think if you're looking at going down and there's a couple of value options, you know it might be a Marshall, a Murphy Reid, even a Josh Rochelle still. like You have to do it this week just because you've got to really target that value while it's there. Another week,
00:33:55
Speaker
gone by, they're going to make more money and they're going to be more unaffordable. You're not going to make as much money for your own side. So if you're dabbling in that forward line and needing to trade, I think I would make that jump this week.
Optimizing Team Performance
00:34:08
Speaker
But I'm also on the fence about maybe potentially holding him too. So he was always going to miss this week. Post-buy, if he misses three weeks, that's right on sort of the limits of wanting to hold a premium. I think where ah sort of see the upside in it is that there's not a whole lot of forwards that are you know going to be necessarily keepers or are putting their hand up to be keepers, mind you. and I'm not even sure that there's a lot of DPP that's potentially coming through either. so
00:34:41
Speaker
Knowing that Petrarca is going to be a top six forward, probably a top three forward, Part of me does want to keep that. And you know if that blows out to six weeks, then that's probably skewing on the wrong decision. But if it's four weeks with a buy included, that might be a risk that I'm willing to take. And it's a trade saved that you can use elsewhere. And I think um you know if any of the listeners are like me, there's definitely some spot fires that I kind of need to put out over the next couple of weeks. You mentioned There's going to be some rookies that we're going to lose. Holmesy, that's inevitable, but there's some mid-pricers out there as well, like a Darcy Parrish that know is potentially going to me have to be looked at, Blackiston, if you don't count him as a rookie. um
00:35:25
Speaker
Yeah, there's going to be more things that come. Vicentini, there's going to be injury suspension. So, you know, potentially we can improve our our sides around that instead. Yeah, I mean, and that's where I'm kind of looking at too, right? So I have both Petrarca and Rosie, but I don't have the DPP to be able to trade Petrarca to anyone else other than a forward, right? So ah my thinking is that, you know, if I was going to go Petrarca down, it would be to a value option. So write it off some names and Murphy Reed, Todd Marshall, one of those sort of types, and then it would be taking up Rosie to ah to a premium. But
00:36:03
Speaker
Then I'm carrying over lots of cash and then you run the risk of you know carrying cash and having injuries and things like that.
Balancing Risk and Strategy
00:36:10
Speaker
So I'm actually considering holding Petrarca for a week and taking one of my failed mid prices, whether it be a Blackiston, Windsor or maybe even a Parrish,
00:36:21
Speaker
down to maybe a forward. So if i if I do want to go that forward option, that then gives me the element to move Petrarca out of the midfield and then trade him next week to someone that I actually think is value rather than burning it on a Grine Myers who's 103.
00:36:39
Speaker
you I quite like a Dylan Moore at 83, but he's on his buy. So does that become available to me next week? um Because all the forward options as well, we just need more time to be able to assess what they're doing. Toby Green has the role, but he has a buy coming up. um you know Some of these players. So I am kind of considering that. It is a risk because if I get more injuries next week, then maybe I find myself in a little bit of trouble. But that's that's kind of my thinking, Jordy. And I can see you kind of nodding along a little bit. So do you agree in ah in that theory a little bit of,
00:37:09
Speaker
you know If I'm not convinced on the premium for Petrarca, then I may as well try and fix another mid-pricer to get one one more issue out of my side. Definitely. I think that's an awesome play because, yeah, I would look at doing Zaki that, holding with Traker. You can use him as a loop this week as well in your midfield. I know we've probably got Murdoch there. But you you could get Todd Marshall maybe if you're interested in him.
00:37:31
Speaker
um And what that allows you to do is, yeah, get more of a look on the forwards. And we're going to get DPP soon. Also, i think a priority like Windsor, I think, you can get rid of him for a primo defender. And I think that's a massive tick.
00:37:47
Speaker
Yeah, yeah yeah it it is interesting, Jordi. It's something I'm sort of pondering at the moment. I want to use the money, but i I stand cautious in trading into these highly priced players and and hoping that the magic number starts to settle over the next few weeks so we can start to find some valuers. I think that's going to be the way that myself and Louis can climb the ranks. It's a value game and and hope we can make up those points later
Community Trade Strategy Q&A
00:38:10
Speaker
on down the track. So we've talked a lot about philosophy. So let's get into the listener questions to finish the pod. But just a reminder that the Pod Pod ah the pod pod sorry has once again partnered with Q Platforms in 2026. So um if you'd like help answering any of your AFL fantasy questions, head over to askmeonq.com forward slash
00:38:31
Speaker
pod pod afl the link is in the show description below ah you have the ability for a guaranteed answer if we don't get to your answer full team reviews questions on individual players and much much more so head over to ask me on cue if you would like to do that but Jordi, I'll start with you. This one is from Olivia Calvi. Hi, Podpod.
00:38:53
Speaker
Is it a no-brainer to trade out Petrarca and Rosie this week or can we hold Petrarca one week as he was always going to miss the round three buy anyway? So this is along the same thinking of my trades this week where they want to trade out an underperforming mid-pricer instead. So Parrish, Windsor or Blackiston to get Watkins. So...
00:39:13
Speaker
may Maybe give out of those three which one you believe is the most urgent priority priority trade-out and then if you think it's a good idea. Yeah, I love this. I think, yeah, as you said, similar to yours, I think getting Watkins is awesome, especially cutting one of them. So or who out of Windsor or Blackstone? Maybe I'll just stick with Windsor and then Blackstone and Parrish in that order.
00:39:36
Speaker
um But really you could probably go... You know, you're probably a Blackstone as well. um And then Rosie up to a premium. I think that's what I would be doing. Yep, in agreeance there. Jordy, that's what I'm looking to do myself. Louis, this one is from Matzy.
00:39:53
Speaker
Thoughts on Ash this week? And then Callahan off his buy. GWS have a great run and mid-season buy. So they do have a great mid-season buy, being on the buy with Richmond, I believe, as the only two teams.
00:40:05
Speaker
I mean, just for a bit of context, Lockie Ash priced at $111,000, break-even of $70,000. He's gone back-to-back $130,000, has the roll, looking unreal. And... Finn Callaghan got a bit of attention last week but did get busy late so he's priced at 103 with a break even of 97 so I suppose 111 for Lockie Ash they probably want to trade into it now so that he's not priced at 113 115 potentially next week after his buy and Finn Callaghan so do you like that play at all?
Post-buy Player Value
00:40:37
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not too sure on that one. Lockie Ash is priced at 111. think the highest priced player that we saw last year was 115. But if you believe that the players are going to average a little bit more this year, can sort of see the vision, the math off the top of my head to trade him in this week, missing that assumed 111 that you're going to want that he's priced at.
00:41:04
Speaker
ah You probably need him to go, what, like $116, $117 for the rest of the year to get value out of that. So, look, I see the vision. the the um The fixture is pretty nice. ah I think if you're struggling for options, you know I wouldn't talk anybody out of it, but certainly paying a premium price there. So,
00:41:23
Speaker
Really emptying out all your cash on that one. In terms Callaghan, I also like that. um I presume that's off the buy, which which is fine. you know Priced at 103, that's probably reflecting a fair price as well, right, Holmesy? There might be a little bit of upside there,
00:41:41
Speaker
but um Yeah, so it's so tough because as we've sort of mentioned this whole podcast, it's really hard to find value at the moment. But you do have to take a leap of faith at some point. So definitely ticking off Callaghan. I think he'll be popular post his buy. I think I would rather scratch around for for some value elsewhere rather than trading into a Lockie Ash this week though.
00:42:05
Speaker
Yeah, I think I agree. 111 is too expensive for me, but at the same time, I've been guilty in the past of of not getting on these guys when they go on on these runs. And I got on Miller last year priced at 113 and he finishes the year going larger than that.
00:42:20
Speaker
I'll ask you this, Holmesy. If you're considering ash before the buy. um Would you have a look at like a Wanganeen Miller, for example? If you're comfortable taking that buy, you've got Miller at 103 price stat. He's, you know what, seven, eight points down on what he actually did last season. Yes, he's copying some tags, but I think we all think that that will eventually turn around and he'll get some big games in there. Same buy. Is that a guy that you'd rather take a punt on knowing that potentially there's actually some upside there rather than a Lockie Ash.
00:42:55
Speaker
Yeah, look, i I don't mind it at all, to be fair. His value on what he did last year, playing Brisbane this week, so you wouldn't think that they'd tag him and Brisbane have actually been a little bit all over the show to start the year, so maybe they are a little bit rattled with some of the players they have out. I think we're all going to be targeting Wanganemila off his bye, right, if we can get there. If if he has another...
00:43:17
Speaker
Semi-poor score, you put up a 90 on the weekend, which is fine. It's just not what he's sort of used to going at. Then he'll be priced under 100 and the whole comp tries to go there post-buy, which means he might be a trade ahead and able to do something elsewhere. So, yeah,
Ruck Line Opportunities
00:43:32
Speaker
great shout by you, Louis. Jordy, this one's from Kat, and i I'll go just because you already mentioned it on the pod, but Kat has Track and Rosie, but also Vicentini at r three with English at R1. So only the one Ruckman available this week.
00:43:47
Speaker
Do they need to prioritize trading the R3 given all the cash that's sitting there or do you think you still just go with trading Rosie and Petrarca this week? So this one's quite unique because I've sort of looked at this. Like I'm happy with McAndrew. I think he's doing a fine job.
00:44:04
Speaker
But I've looked at Vicentini to Cherry because he's got an awesome matchup and run. He's come out with a 150. Could you just get – no one's looking at him. Could you grab Cherry?
00:44:16
Speaker
yeah Use him as a VC. You've got him in English. Yeah, you've got McAndrew as R3. So that's where I'd be unsure because he's pumping up some really good scores at the moment, 80s.
00:44:28
Speaker
But I don't think that – I think it's something we need to consider here as a – As and a bit of a unique, like Cherry is underpriced. He's probably out of all of these guys value if we do see him going back to what he did. Obviously, the preseason, we were unsure about him.
00:44:44
Speaker
He's just put a 152 on. ah know it was Matt Flynn, but he's got a great run. So he probably is value. So i don't know. I think it could be a unique play that you could get a step ahead of others.
00:44:57
Speaker
But, yeah, I don't know whether weather I, like, McHanji's doing a good job. So it's like, where where where do you go? Yeah, um I actually really like it, Geordie, to be fair. And I've been on an island with this one all preseason and I still will be. But with Vicentini being dropped, we don't know how long we're going to have this ZZ guy. Cooper Duff-Titler admittedly is going all right. um How long does Mitch Edwards stay in the Geelong side?
00:45:22
Speaker
if you If you move McAndrew to R3 and you're getting 120 plus from Cherry and an English who's going 110 plus, then the R3 just becomes a cash generating option for you when a lot of the others in the comp don't have that cash generating option, which is just more money that you're going to be able to spend later on than others can. But Lou, what do you think?
00:45:43
Speaker
Yeah, I like it as well. I think the Ruck line is really unique in that we're probably only choosing from a pool of know three, four, five players every single year. And ah because they are you know so high scoring, generally they are representing a pretty fair price. You're not often getting a whole lot of value out of your Ruckman anyway. So...
00:46:04
Speaker
If you were going to pay um a premium this week, ah don't mind it being in the ruck line. I know there's probably a Grundy who's got the buy this week, but potentially a Darcy Cameron could be one to look at. Certainly, Sherry, for all the mens for all the um things that you boys have just mentioned, it's definitely a line that I think um can lend itself to paying a little bit more than what you usually would.
00:46:30
Speaker
Beautiful. Louis, I'll stay with you for this one. So this is our this is our boy, Yarns or girl, don't know Hey, boys, long-time listener and currently sitting top of the Pod Pod Challenge leaderboard. Congratulations. I have Track and Rosie to trade, but I'm 1K short of Jcos and Myers. So do I trade Rosie and Blackiston to Jcos and Watkins or Rosie and Track to Jcos and a Ross slash Graham?
00:46:57
Speaker
Rosie and Blackson, Jake Austin, Watkins, Rosie and Track, Jake Austin, Ross, Graham. No, I think, look, you're introducing a little bit of risk with a Ross and a Graham, aren't you? And I think trades are coming at a premium. We've all got bullets. We're all struggling to identify value. And to be honest, I think every coach out there would love a trade boost or two just to fix up some things. And I think Ross or Graham do introduce that level of ah doubt and and potentially another issue down the line. So for me, I'm trading to a Josh Dacos. I think that you know potentially he's somebody that can elevate with the new Pies game style.
00:47:37
Speaker
He's got this really unique role, which we don't often see. you know We've seen it from some fantasy studs like Holmes and Wangaline Miller are aware They're actually taking a decent portion of the kick-ins, but they're also attending centre bounce, which is a really nice fantasy role. It means that they can be effective in one position and if they're getting a little bit of attention, can potentially move to the other and still keep that score ticking across. so I'm a big Jcos fan myself. I think, you know, 107 price that is probably a little bit high, but in terms of what I think he can do, um I think there's a world where he can, you know, clip at the heels of like a 102, 103, all things going well. So, yeah.
00:48:17
Speaker
I really like him. And Watkins, ah I've sort of been pretty positive on him as well. um I did some numbers. And if he can do a 4% market share in a 1,500 total fantasy scoring Port Adelaide side, that puts him at a 60%.
00:48:35
Speaker
break even which ah sorry a 60 average which over the next four weeks will make 210k he's got a great fixture um so just checking here he's got West Coast Richmond St Kilda Hawthorne which is about as good as it gets so Quite bullish on him. I think he's someone that could potentially pop a scorer as well just because, as mentioned earlier, he does have that sandful pedigree and he's mature age. So a little bit like Milan Murdoch in a way, maybe not quite as high scoring. so That's one that I'm quite bullish on and could potentially get away from coaches that don't choose to go there.
00:49:12
Speaker
It's going to be interesting too because I know there's a lot of coaches that are carrying over cash. So um that potentially might be ah really nice avenue to, to you know ah suppose, strip back on points this week but potentially gain some later down the line by generating all that cash quite quickly.
Mid-pricer Replacement Strategies
00:49:30
Speaker
Yep, now um I'm with you as well. And just to to finish off that point, Jack Ross priced at 81, Jack Graham priced at 88. The value's gone. We've only seen one game from Graham anyway in a win against North.
00:49:42
Speaker
um So yeah, I'd be going the the premium from Rosie and then getting that failed mid-pricer out to a a rookie generator and then dealing with Petrarca. next week. Last one for you, Jordy. This one's from Burger Boys and i'm throwing throwing him in there just because it's Vams' boy, so we need to touch on it. So Zach Johnson, is he an option? So Redman out of the side. We did see an uptick on the weekend, had some kick-ins.
00:50:08
Speaker
Clearly they're going with the young guys. So what do you think about Zach Johnson?
00:50:14
Speaker
So he's very cheap. He's priced at 55 and he's 541k. I just worry about, he's a second year player. It's a bad system at the moment for points with Essendon.
00:50:25
Speaker
Like, he could be good, but also he could just pop a 50 maybe and then all your cash gens just stuffed. You know, so, I mean, what's his break even? 24.
00:50:38
Speaker
Last score of 90. So I guess he has that rolled in. i don't know. It just seems a bit like, do we want to go for a risk? Depending on your team, if you've got other guys to fix, like he could do it, but it just seems risky to me.
00:50:51
Speaker
Yep, I'm with you. All it takes is a 40 or a 50 and that cash gen is completely done. i am looking to remove Essendon players from my side. I'm not looking to add them in just because of that system and how they're playing at the moment. So Zach Johnson is not someone I'd be looking at going um just because of these failed mid-prices and how we've seen them go so far. But boys, that's going to wrap us up there. Thank you for another episode.
00:51:16
Speaker
Jordy, as the number one coach on the pod today, just give us some closing thoughts and and what you're looking forward to on the weekend. Yeah, well, there's another Port game Sunday, so I will be there cheering on the boys. Maybe that means I trade in Jack Watkins um just so I can cheer him on. But, um yeah, looking forward to another week in trades. Got to figure out these options. But, um yeah, I'll maybe try and do some tweets as well as I did maybe on a Sunday morning before the game. But, yeah.
00:51:44
Speaker
Yeah. Maybe don't. It didn't work. It didn't work, yeah. Maybe leave it alone. so ah um Beautiful. Yeah, but other than that, business as usual.
00:51:56
Speaker
Beautiful. Keep hunting that value. It is a value game, as I mentioned. We've got to get rid of these failed mid prices. We've got to get that cash going in the right
Conclusion and Future Plans
00:52:06
Speaker
direction. But ah that the method holds true is that you've just got to stay disciplined at this time of the year. Avoid paying overpriced for players or or fair value even if they're not going to be top six. And yeah. We will we will ah will get there. Louis, looking forward to climbing the ranks with you. For everyone else, make sure you're following us on X at PodPod AFL.
00:52:27
Speaker
Make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify, Apple Podcast, or wherever you listen to your content. I will be back on Thursday night with Selby, as I discussed. That's how well I'm going. That's not the outro music. So we'll try that again.
00:52:41
Speaker
I'll be back with Selby on Thursday night for yeah what my trades are going to look like, and we will chat then. Bye. you