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Upgrade Season!!? | Strategy Round Table | AFL Fantasy Q&A #PODPOD
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Round 6 is done and we are starting to see some separation at the top, with coaches who have carefully planned around value starting to soar ahead of those coaches who paid a premium in the early rounds. The PODPOD boys had a good week and they are here to discuss it all as we head into another important week. It’s upgrade season!
In this episode, a full panel discusses an eventful round and helps you navigate all of the hot topics from the week. Drew Jones from Goat Fantasy provides a quick injury news update for key AFL Fantasy players, the panel discuss value options, how to build team value whilst hunting points and then finish answering a stack of listener questions.
PODPOD Team Names
Holmesy - Holmesysheroes
Lewy - Hawk Tuah (Pittonet Thang)
Harmey - Hirdy’s Heroes
Sam - Mandaclawrian FC
Jordy - AIRJORDAN
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The PODPOD is brought to you by Moreira’s Magic in 2026. All Holmes Files episodes will be available exclusively as a part of the 2026 Season Guide. As well as the podcasts, the Season Guide will also include:
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The guide is now live! A must have for any serious Fantasy coach head over to moreirasmagic.com.au/ to subscribe in-season now!
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Lewy: @AFLewy
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Sam: @grillis03
Jordy: @jordandsena
Dossy: @HKdos
Recommended
Transcript
Podcast Introduction
00:00:18
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod brought to you by Moreira's Magic. I'm your host Holmesy, three-time top 10 finisher and twice runner-up in AFL Fantasy Classic. Round six has been and gone, another round of best 22s.
00:00:32
Speaker
Upgrade season is right on the horizon and I don't know about you guys, but I'm very keen to hopefully start to get these under of underperforming players off my field as we seem to have dodged some injury carnage. Touch wood.
00:00:46
Speaker
And we won't have to use any fix-up trades this week.
Panel Introduction and Wedding Anecdotes
00:00:49
Speaker
We have a full panel on deck today. It's been a while. And I'm going to go to our perennial top 1K finisher first, Louis. asz We never got a gather round update from you last week. As I mentioned, the only kind correspondence I've had from you was a random DM on Saturday night from ah a wedding that you were at. So nice to see you've recovered enough to be back on the back on the horse, mate. that But how are you? And I hope you've ah earned some of those brownie points back with your missus.
00:01:15
Speaker
Yep, good to be here, gentlemen. ah Yeah, probably been in recovery mode ah for the last week or two. i um I'm back in the good books, which is nice. um And good week to be back on the podcast too. I've had a little bit of success, which is something that's been few and far between so far this season. So yeah, pumped to talk a little bit of fantasy and and be here with you boys.
00:01:39
Speaker
Now, Lou, i I don't know if you listened to our podcast last week or whether you were just having a detox from all things footy, but I did mention to Geordie that one of my gather round highlights was Sunday night, you know, in the early hours of the morning, Geordie's offered to drive me and our other mate home and he's turned to you and he's gone, you want to lift home, Louie? And you've just looked him dead in the eyes and said, Geordie.
00:02:03
Speaker
I'm seeing this one through. I'm all night. I'm not done yet. And the look on Geordie's face, he just he just couldn't believe it. he'd he'd never been He'd never been there before. He doesn't understand that day four is always better than day three.
00:02:17
Speaker
And you've just got to earn it. It's that great Ben cos Cousins quote, isn't it? um Yeah, that was pretty much my whole weekend. I'm pretty sure we saw the sun come up twice and um the other two nights we we gave it a really good crack too. So certainly glad that I took the Monday off because I i reckon I copped four hangovers in one um and some say I didn't rock up Tuesday either. So yeah.
00:02:41
Speaker
Not in the good books at work either, but that's okay. um Yeah, ah I'm feeling better now. As you said, I was at a wedding. I ahll sent you a cheeky little photo. Probably a few too many free beers there as well. But um yeah, time to detox. jump on ah Jump on the milk thistle and a couple of berries and and we'll be good.
00:03:02
Speaker
So one one more gather round highlight. So for the listeners, we had 10 seats booked for Adelaide Oval for all the night games up in the up in the stands. But Louis and the boys, much to my dismay on the Friday night, decided that they wanted to watch the Freo Collingwood game from the hill.
00:03:20
Speaker
So I wasn't sure whether I was going to see Louis on the Saturday night for the Bulldogs and Hawks game. And i I flicked him a message as the game was about to start. And I said, Louis, are we on the hill tonight? Are are we on the seats, Harmi? And he he sends the message back and he goes, Holmesy, I'm at the seats tonight.
Fantasy Strategies and Player Picks
00:03:37
Speaker
I can't stand up straight. I need to
00:03:42
Speaker
sit down. It was a good weekend. But Harmi, mate, how are you? Yep, no, I'm going really well, mate. um Obviously, had a good weekend of footy. Watched some of the games, actually. ah um Yeah, no, it was a pretty cool weekend, so guess we'll recap on that. But I'm going well, thanks.
00:03:57
Speaker
Yes, Harmi, just quietly, the team is shaping up very nicely off a couple of your Bombers boys turning it around, which is, as I said, nice to see. And basically holding the podcast together at this point, Geordie doing the show, Doc, making sure he's here week in, week out, despite how well your round's gone, keeping the pod pod together, mate. Thanks fort thanks for being back. How are you?
00:04:21
Speaker
Yeah, no worries. Great to be back on. Great to have the full panel as well. Missed you boys. i miss haven't As you said, I haven't seen Louis for about a week, so I miss you, mate. It's good to see you. And yeah, keen to, as you said, upgrade season ahead. So let's get into it.
00:04:38
Speaker
Do you ever worry that the next gather round could be his last?
00:04:45
Speaker
He'll be right. I've got to get him out running a bit more, I think. Yeah, yeah. We're going to do a run on the Saturday. He definitely wasn't keen for run club on the Saturday, but let's let's get to the round that was. Let's go through our our scores and ranks and and our picks. And Jordy, i think I need to to start with you this week, mate. So how'd you how'd you go Yep. I got a twenty one thirty one so it's put me up 6K ranks. I'm back at 12K, 12,380. So i was about that last week. So it's good to be back around that mark.
00:05:19
Speaker
um My Stato pick is Roberts this week. So I i traded him in. i was one of the coaches that went there. I ended up putting ah the VC on him. so That was handy. I was, yeah, I missed the Grundy VC. So I'm glad Roberts got 117, was happy to take that one.
00:05:37
Speaker
And my dossie pick is going to go to Lockie Jarks. um The 46 was a late plus eight too. So he just snuck there. But ah yeah, he was the lowest one. a little bit disappointing. I thought obviously he was managed last week.
00:05:52
Speaker
Maybe he would be a little bit better, a bit fresher. But um obviously, yeah, it's probably... bit hard down there at Cardinia Park. Yeah, obviously I watched some of that game too. it It didn't help that they were still managing his time on ground and then throwing him around too. So he ended up playing forward and on the wing a little bit and, yeah, just couldn't get near it as as all those Bulldogs injuries started piling up and and Geelong really got on top. But, Louis, bounce back week for you, mate. Well back in the hunt.
00:06:23
Speaker
Let's hear it. Yeah, scored the 2182, which was really nice to see, which brings my rank up to 22,500. So I'm up about 25,000 ranks over the last fortnight, which is which is really good. Certainly trending in the right direction. Hopefully we can get that under 10 and then under...
00:06:44
Speaker
Under a thousand come later in the year. Um, my state of pick of the week, I'm going to give it to Todd Marshall. He's been a bit of rollercoaster ride so far, but he's one I was pretty bullish in, um, back in November. And I've sort of ridden that train since then started him in my side. And, uh,
00:07:03
Speaker
Yeah, he's been up and down, but I think he looks good down back. And to get the 78 out of him, he's got a real nice kick-in role and distributing role down back. And I think he's going to be able to generate a bit of cash for me from here, which is really nice to see.
00:07:17
Speaker
And the Dossie pick of the week, I'm going to give it to Dante Vicentini, another bloke who I was probably keen on back in November and unfortunately have ridden that since. It was nice to see him come back. I suppose he did mess up the loop a little bit, but... um yeah to To come back for a 32 is probably not unexpected given he was alongside Sweet and had to play key forward, but would have been nice for that price to to go up a little bit. At one point, I was actually making money on him so when the magic number was going my way, but yeah he's going to have to exit my team pretty soon.
00:07:53
Speaker
yeah Yeah, that score, no good. I think he did lose money, didn't he, Lou? And the fact that Port Adelaide pushed Hawthorne as far as they did, they probably should have almost won that game. Probably suggest that they probably stick with that dual ruck setup for a while, although I think they might have done it to combat the the Reeves' meek. So hopefully you see Sweet go back to solo so you can get off Dante before he loses too much money.
00:08:18
Speaker
I was next this week with a 21.95, which has brought me from 24K down to 11.6, which very, very pleasing. Just trying to get back inside that top 10K and see what happens from there. My Dossie Pick of the Week. And Jordy, have you seen all those memes that go around on on socials of the, you know, like the change your life where it's just like that cartoon guy of like, I can't believe you changed my life. And it's just a guy saying something stupid.
00:08:48
Speaker
I think so. think so. So this one, this is Baz Smith to me. He's just changed my life. I did everything that I preach against of paying up big for a premium at this time of year. Brought him in two weeks ago, but far out. hes He has just changed my life. He's made fantasy fun again.
00:09:07
Speaker
VC on him on the Friday night. Had players like Lombard on my field, which is my dossie pick, and other underperformers. But just having Baz to be able to lock that captaincy away, he just keeps on keeping on. And that might be the only way I can get back into it if he just keeps going, that sort of 125 and coaches really need a trade-up to get in.
00:09:27
Speaker
That might be a way I can kind of claw back. But yeah, very happy with that. But Harmi, you've gone even bigger than me this week.
00:09:39
Speaker
Yeah, well, um I bumped into a mate last week and he said he went from 10,000 to the top 500 in one week. I thought, well, there is hope for us yet, fellas. So i did a bit of tinkering with my team and I scored a 2,204, so pretty good. Could have been a bit higher, actually. But anyway, 2,204. Yeah, actually, well, man, picked the wrong rookies. it was bad That cost me about 50 points, I think.
00:10:05
Speaker
um My ranking has come in to 3,804, not too bad. nice if it was top 1,000, so I guess that's kind of the aim at the minute to get in there.
00:10:18
Speaker
um My Stato pick of the week, I tell you, I had a guy on my team who scored 151, I'm not going to give it to him. I was watching the footy. Zach Merritt. Woo! I was watching the footy on Sunday and I sent you boys a message. Man, Murphy Reid is such a good footy player.
00:10:35
Speaker
He just finds space constantly and he pops up for these marks. He he was really good. So I've had him my him in my team for a little while. 106 from him was... Pretty great in that last game.
00:10:47
Speaker
But my dossie pick of the week, and we will get to our trades that we did, but a guy that I traded in, I'm going to give it to, Connor McDonald, $66.
00:10:57
Speaker
Man, I traded in two guys that I thought were going to be top six forwards, including McDonald. I've seen him play some pretty awesome games this year.
00:11:09
Speaker
This was definitely not one. He didn't play well and he didn't have a good role. So now it leaves me a touch concerned. But anyway, that was the weekend for me. Yeah, we did start to see some of those forwards fail, Harmy. So, yeah C-Mac obviously didn't get it done.
00:11:26
Speaker
Rochelle had basically only had one touch in the last quarter to finish on 66 or 69, whatever it was. And anyone that traded in is Zach Bailey, who just quietly I was relatively high on. He scored a 39, which is horrendous.
00:11:40
Speaker
Ginovin, 79. Who was that, Louis? Butterick did nothing. Buterick did nothing
Team Value and Trade Strategies
00:11:46
Speaker
exactly. Bailey Williams, 44, far out. So yeah, some of these forwards. And and that's a good segue in, Hami. So we'll talk about our trades because I think there's actually a good learning opportunity from this particular round. And me and Selby kind of spoke about it on our Q&A Quickfire podcast on Thursday where...
00:12:05
Speaker
A lot of coaches decided to trade into a forward option this week because they didn't want to play a Lombard on field. They didn't want to play a Doverston on field. And that's completely fine. Like no one wants to cop those scores on field. But if you were someone like me that didn't have an Archie Roberts, it was actually more valuable to trade in an Archie Roberts and cop the rookie score.
00:12:26
Speaker
than it was to trade in one of these forwards outside of a a Jason Horne Francis, who I wasn't really keen on, I would have got the same points from just trading in a Warner, trading in it a more C-Mac, I would have got less, obviously.
00:12:40
Speaker
Rankin. Rankin. Yeah, exactly. Rankin and playing one of those defender rookies, then playing Roberts, getting the cash and then playing Lombard instead. So obviously I need to fix Lombard this week. Like I can't probably roll that again.
00:12:54
Speaker
But it is interesting, Harmi, that that's the way I decided to go down because I didn't want to trade in a forward. But you went the opposite way. Yeah, well, that's right. I mean, I had a few injuries, Robertson, Buterick.
00:13:07
Speaker
I didn't want to play Lombard or Doverson on field. um I ended up trading out Caleb Windsor, which I was pretty dead keen on all week. So I've seen enough from him, that's for sure. So traded out Windsor and I traded out Buderich, held Robertson as a loop, which I used in my midfield. um Yeah, so that's where I landed. i I mean, I looked at all these value options, you know, the whole range of options I could have gone to. I tried to lock away two guys that I thought were going to be top six and be able to hold without much pissing around in that forward line for the next month or two. So I went for, I had a bit of money, I went for Petrarca and Connor McDonald. Yeah.
00:14:00
Speaker
Petrarca, I think, it is pretty self-explanatory. I was praying all game that he didn't get injured and he got through. So he looked really good in patches. He got rested a little bit. And McDonald was, as I said, that was disappointing. um You know, he's priced it between 80 and 85. I thought he could be 90 plus.
00:14:19
Speaker
um But, yeah, he didn't play like that on the day, unfortunately. So does that mean you missed Roberts or did you grab him weeks before? I don't have Roberts.
00:14:30
Speaker
And do you regret now that he's gone up 70k, the roles, it's legit and he's coming into a Collingwood matchup and he's now priced at whatever it is, 104. Do you regret passing that up just to get that that middling forward in McDonald? um Time will tell.
00:14:47
Speaker
ah Well, look, he had the best game of his life the week before, 40 touches and whatever, heaps of marks. um I just don't ah still don't feel like he will average 100 plus, put it that way. So that being the case, no, I'm not that disappointed, but guess we'll see.
00:15:09
Speaker
Well, I kind of had that choice as well. I was tossing up Roberts or Wanganeen Miller and what kind of came down to in the end, they were both priced at a similar price, was who I see being a legitimate top six come end of year. Certainly not sort of making a case for Roberts not being that. At this point, he looks pretty phenomenal. But in terms of safety for me, looking towards the end of the year and trying to keep as many trades in my pocket as possible. That's why I sort of went for Wanganeen Miller because, you know, Roberts has had a phenomenal two weeks and there's been a slight role tweak and game style change within Essendon. But it also wouldn't surprise me if he does drop down to those 90, 95 awkward areas where, you know, come the end of year, that may potentially be another trade out.
00:16:01
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, no, that's that's fair. And that's, Was ah the trainer thought that I was going down as well, Lou? So if if I wasn't going to trade in... So if I was going to trade a forward in last week because I didn't want Lombard on field, I think I would have gone down the top six avenue as well, which really would have been a Kozzi or a Petrarca. Now, they're probably fairly priced or maybe even a little bit overpriced, but I think the value of having a trade as well is quite, as as you said, quite valuable.
00:16:27
Speaker
you know coming to the Rankins and the Warners I haven't ruled out Warner this week to be fair he's still sort of cheap enough and and has a good role but Rankin's role just wasn't what we needed it to be even with Dawson out he only had the three center bounces I just didn't want to be dabbling in those areas and that's why in the end I just kept going round and around on the forward options and went you know what I'm just going to get Roberts and and get that cash and and go from there and Yeah, I got the same amount of points, literally the exact amount of points if I had gone Warner, which is the option I was looking at. And now I've got Roberts for a Collingwood matchup and he's made 70K. So, Jordy, what did you look at?
00:17:04
Speaker
Yeah, I was pretty keen at Roberts. I actually think he is going 100 plus and he's a top six defender. So I was pretty, I mean, we talked about last week, Holmesy, and we were pretty keen to just lock him in with the price rise in Collingwood. And I use him as a VC and I'll probably look at using him as a C or VC this week as well. So there's that option as well. So I had Zorko to worry about. So I went him straight to Roberts and then I had enough money where,
00:17:30
Speaker
I did pretty much that straight bat move, which is I went Budirich to Nassaya, Wangani Malera. So I was able to get both of them. It did mean that um I missed Anderson, but he's someone I'm looking at this week to get. And I've still got 308k banked. So, um yeah, I'm pretty – I think with the defence at the moment, like we've lost Rosie, we've lost – There's another player we lost. Ozorko, as we talked about, injured. And he might come. Who knows how he's going to come back. I think there's a spot there for Roberts to be a top six or close enough. So happy to go there.
00:18:04
Speaker
Yeah, if youmen Roberts ends up being a top six and Nassar as well, which we're we're predicting he is, he still only had the one ton this year, which is insane to think about, but you've potentially got two top six defenders there at a bit of a discount that you hopefully won't have to trade out for the rest of the year, which is important still. We we preach value, but at this time of year, if you can still lock away a top six, even if they're only you know sort of three to five points of upside, that's still ah that's still a good trade and you can hunt the others as they present themselves.
00:18:34
Speaker
Quick update on the Pod Pod Challenge. We have four coaches inside the top 100 now, which is really good to see that that's starting to increase. So Happy Grillmore ranked at 18, which is huge off the back of a which is a monster score.
00:18:51
Speaker
knocked loose, ranked at 72, the powerhouse at 76, and then Evil Zebel ranked at 85. So as I said, really good to see the Pod Pod Challenge members in the 100 and challenging for the Tundra.
Updates and Injury News
00:19:06
Speaker
Hopefully you'll be joining them soon, Harmy, flying the flag for the podcast. I was ranked 5.7K at this time last year and you're inside that, mate. So that tells me that you're you're still you're still in the hunt. Yeah, no, thanks, mate. Well... I look the team values, I'm probably a little bit lower than I'd like to be there. But anyway, I'll get Anderson in this week and then I'll be through the roof.
00:19:26
Speaker
Harmy, you you've never looked at team value before, mate. Don't don't start now. You're old school fantasies old dear fantasy. fantasy. Well, I am, that's true. Just a reminder, the pod pod challenge. So the winner will receive a custom AFL fantasy ring from our friends over at supercoachchampion.com.
00:19:41
Speaker
If you'd like a ring for any of your draft leagues or anything like that, make sure you go over and check them out. And the lead code is still in the show description if you would like to join up. But boys,
00:19:52
Speaker
I have done something a little bit different this week and hopefully we'll continue this moving forward. So i know we're all busy and sometimes we just need to go straight to the source for all of our AFL fantasy news. And there's no one better in the business than AFL fantasy journal of the year, Drew Jones over at goat fantasy. So for any of our listeners, I highly recommend going over and following Drew at goat fantasy. He puts out,
00:20:17
Speaker
think it's four podcasts a week and they're all little short ones centered around all of the hot topics and fantasy news that he's across in AFL land. But we've got him here um giving us all of the latest news for the week. So let's check that out.
00:20:32
Speaker
G'day boys. A pod pod goat fantasy injury update from around the grounds. All right. So just tuning in to the updates this evening, I'll go through them really quickly. So we know Marcus Bontempelli is a test for Thursday night. Soar and sorry after GMHBA Stadium taking on Ocean Mullin and a knock to his knee. Had to scan early in the week.
00:20:52
Speaker
Dogs think he probably will play, but a couple of six-day breaks, he is absolutely sore. There'll be no Tim English, which means Brodie Grunny will go nuts against the Dogs and their debutante, Lockie Smith. and So Dan Curtin's playing Sandfull. Good news for draft owners and the Crows. Dane Zorko still listed as one to two weeks for Brisbane with that calf.
00:21:13
Speaker
At Fremantle, no Sean Darcy, so Luke Jackson will keep rolling with Mason Cox. Darcy out now with a calf concern. So their matchup, it ah sets up very nicely for Fremantle against Carlton with no Mark Pitnett, Liam Reedy. likely to lead the ruck for the blues noah anderson a test for gold coast after his appendectomy at gws canelio hogan daniels and cabman all set to return jake bowie is playing vfl uh for the demon so he's not too far away and at north melbourne foss is a test finno sullivan so that means that finn callaghan may well be in his sights when they take on the giants in Canberra and spoke to the Saints a short time ago. I think they put their injury report out now. But Tom De Koning, very sore, but is still a test to take on the Eagles on Sunday. So we're still not quite sure if Roar Marshall will get that sole rocking, sole rucking
00:22:08
Speaker
Roll, but it has to be said in the aftermath of the game, the Saints were not come they were not confident. They were not comfortable with how De Koning was going after a really heavy knock to his back and his hip. So we could well see West Coast Bailey Williams up against Royal Marshall. Let's hope.
00:22:27
Speaker
Beautiful. Thanks for that, Drew. And as I mentioned, go check him out over at Goat Fantasy, one of the best in the business at providing fantasy coaches with relevant news that will help us with our classic teams and draft as well. Very good there. But, Jordy,
00:22:42
Speaker
It is upgrade season, mainly because we don't, touch wood, have any forced trades to deal with this week. I suppose, Harmi, you actually raised a good point before about talking about team value, right?
Upgrade Season Strategies
00:22:54
Speaker
And being in upgrade season, it's going to mean different things to different coaches.
00:22:58
Speaker
Thanks to the bid in that, guys, on Twitter, they've put out the stat that the average team value of our top 100 coaches is 23 million, with obviously there's some up around that sort of 23.5. And, know,
00:23:12
Speaker
then there's definitely some that are well below 23. But why don't we go around the room and talk about what our current team values are and whether that's actually dictating what we're looking to do with our trades this week. So, Jordy, I'll go to you first. As being the younger guy, you're a bit more tech savvy. You can probably find it a bit quicker than the old blokes over there.
00:23:31
Speaker
Yeah, well, actually sent it to your boys in the in the chat so today. So, yeah, mine's 22.931 million. so based on that bit and that tweet, I'm averaging around, yeah, in the top 1,000 there. So, I think that's in a good spot. Obviously, I'm ranked 12K, but I think my team value is about...
00:23:50
Speaker
top thousand so that's not too bad um would be nice if it was a little higher but obviously you can't uh yeah there's ways as harmy said you can get an anderson there's there's ways to trade into that if we need to but and that sort of got me thinking sort of like trade-wise um do you sort of go down that path or not so i'm sure we'll talk about that Yeah, and and shout out to DT Lemon. If if people aren't a ah Patreon member for his podcast, The Lemon League, go and check it out. But he he lays it out.
00:24:18
Speaker
He's done it for the last few weeks about where the team values are at and and how that kind of dictates what you should be doing with your trades. and it is a bit of a personal attack on me. Every every week he tells tells us what a good team value is. And if you are lower than that, then you should be on high alert. And that's me every single week. But are you a believer in that, Jordy, that if your team value is struggling a little bit, that you probably do need to do ah a few more of these value plays, maybe look at a double downgrade if we've got two good rookies in Anderson and Retchko.
00:24:47
Speaker
um and and maybe not go as much to the top with your Petrarca, Nassai, Wanganee, Miller types? Or do you just keep going one down, one up and and kicking the can down the road a little bit? I think so. It's one of those hard lines because obviously you want to get points on field and it's depending on what sort of rookies you've got. But I know last year, you know, if you don't build that team value, by the time you get to that back half of the year, teams are just going to come over the top of you. And I know, Holmesy, in your Holmes files, you did a couple of really good interviews interviews where teams would just come over the top of each other with more team value you can get that 24th primo which is um where you can really do some damage in the back half of the year so i think you really be mindful of it um and if you can think you know if if you're potentially off of this off of 22.9 or 23
00:25:34
Speaker
off of twenty two point nine or twenty three um Perhaps you you might need to do that double down just to just to try and catch up, I think. Or we can talk about some of these spicy options that have sort of presented themselves this week. You know, like this time last year, was we targeted like Ned Long and and Ryan Marrick. So I wonder whether we go for these guys or, i mean, there's so many rookies this year. So we've still got a lot more cash in, I think, this year than last year. So it's just that balance. I think if you're behind, you do the double down.
00:26:08
Speaker
Yeah, there's definitely a lot more cash gen this year compared to last and that's with the rookies and I'll put my hand up. So I've done a ah comparison of what my cash gen is this year compared to last year. And last year, my cash gen was very, very strong.
00:26:23
Speaker
This year as a percentage, my cash gen is basically even, but there's a lot more coaches that are ahead of me due to of playing the earlier rounds a lot better. So I'm i'm like you, Jordy, I'm just below 22.9.
00:26:35
Speaker
But I actually think that's an okay hitting zone. Like we still only have two trades a week. So just because these teams have far better team value, that just might mean that they have a few other primos that are in form.
00:26:47
Speaker
So, you know, they didn't get a Darcy Cameron that lost 100K and then we had to trade him out. Maybe they avoided a Tim English. maybe they avoided a Connor Rosey and they haven't lost money on those players. So their primos are just inflating that a little bit. But I think you are right. If you're someone that's down at that sort of 22.5, then maybe you need to look at getting that cash gen going a little bit. Whereas, yeah, obviously the guys above 23, they're right in that hitting zone to keep the cash going, but start to launch to get more of these premiums on field. But Lou, where's your cash gen sitting at the moment?
00:27:17
Speaker
I'm sitting a little bit lower. I'm at 22.75. And that's mostly off the back of not having traded in a rookie since round four um because I carried all this cash throughout the season. And that rookie in round four was Jack Watkins. So it's pretty much done me no good. It's meant I've missed a Farrow and I've meant and i've missed a um an Angus Anderson, which is probably the difference there really at the end of the day. So um That's why I think, Holmesy, if you're a little bit behind, there's definitely potential to to make some astute picks from here.
00:27:50
Speaker
um If some come across our desk and and you know that might result in a double downgrade, as Jordy said. But I think there can be some cash generation that's clawed back from here as some other coaches go into a more um premium sort of sense of mind in terms of what they're targeting.
00:28:09
Speaker
yeah Yeah, I i agree. and I mean, i I was a little bit lower on my cash gen, so I decided to pay up for Farrow this week thinking that he was still a must-have rookie and and that's kind of bit me a little bit. But yeah, I think as long as you you don't have to double downgrade, I know Lemon, shout out to him, is a big believer in it if you're in that position. But you know what's not to say that if you go Anderson and Retchko this week that you know one of them's not dropped the week after?
00:28:33
Speaker
you know We did say that last year with... uh bustling are you know there's always injuries so Hayes we lost Hayes last year so we've been very lucky so far that all of our rookies pretty much have have played all the way through they're starting to plateau now but they've made decent enough cash now it's just about starting to convert that onto on-field points but Harmi is the higher ranked coach on the pod what's your team value sitting at Yeah, my my um team value is sitting at 22.71, so probably the lowest of a lot of us. I guess I've had a lot of injuries um and traded out accordingly, but look, I'm not really letting it influence um the way I'm playing at all at the moment. So I guess we'll see how that plays out ah um through the next 18 rounds whatever.
00:29:24
Speaker
Yeah, still only two trades per week. So as long as you just keep getting the right guys in, we're going to go through some of these value options now. But yeah, what's not to say that some of these value options don't actually give us as much cash gen and points on field as some of these rookies a la Ned Long and Ryan Marrick last year. But I suppose let's let's go to the forward line first because...
00:29:45
Speaker
You know, a lot of us are still running some of these dog, um dog's not the right word, some of these poor scoring rookies on field, Lombard, Dobberston. So we are going to have to trade into some of these primos, right? So, I mean, let's go straight to the the big hot topic of the week, Geordie.
00:30:01
Speaker
So TDK is a test. Ross Lyons' press conference after the game basically said that he was in severe doubt to play. They're probably going to give him right up to the game to to prove his fitness, but it does sound like it's only going to be sort of one week regardless if he doesn't get up.
00:30:17
Speaker
Does that rule the Rowan Marshall out for you at seven hundred and thirty kt I think for me it does, and I'll give you a reason why. i was Last year I went for a Sam Darcy. He had an unreal matchup, and i got him in, and he got a 120, I think it was for me, and it was amazing. And then he got 450s, and I couldn't get him out of my side. I think Marshall, if TDK is going to miss, he's going to be great this week. He's got West Coast. It could be a massive score. But if TDK comes back in, does he go back to that those 50s? You can't get him out. It's not really a cash play.
00:30:52
Speaker
He's not cheap enough as a clash play. I think I'm in the camp of not going there. And that's only because last year I doubled with Jeremy Cameron, Sam Darcy. Yes, these guys are key forwards and they're not a ruck.
00:31:04
Speaker
But I think i'm at this time of the year, I'm trying to get in a guy that's best 22 a guy that I can have for the year, not a one or two week play.
00:31:15
Speaker
that I think that's just where I sit with it. Yeah, my initial thoughts were two weeks. I'd probably dabble with it and run the risk that I don't have any other forced trades. And then two weeks of good scores in the matchups that he has and then being able to jump off to someone else.
00:31:33
Speaker
But if it's going to be one week, I think that's just creating issues. Yeah, you might get one score. But as you mentioned, his break even isn't even that low. i'm just I'll bring it up here. Yeah. For anyone that's looking at price stats and break-evens, I highly recommend checking out morerasmagic.com.au. The AFL Fantasy break-evens and price stats have been wrong for most of the year. um They haven't been able to get those right, but at Morerasmagic, they have been very solid. So if you want a more accurate representation of price stat and break-evens, go and check that out. But yeah, Marshall's break-evens, 83. So even if he goes 130 against Bailey Williams, which...
00:32:11
Speaker
Let's be honest, probably likely if he's solo ruck, that might make him go up 30, 40K. If that, probably not now that the magic number's dropped, which probably isn't enough to make it a good good play, even though you'll get points on field for one week. But, Harmi, the other value option that's reared its head after the weekend, and who could have seen this coming?
00:32:31
Speaker
Cam Zerha, thrown into defence, I actually watched the game and he was everywhere. Intercept marks, kick-ins, linking up.
00:32:42
Speaker
he He scored 113, but he was on 100 very early in that game and then kind of just coasted to the end when North just completely ran over them at the top of the game. Now, I want you to actually talk through this one because they played North Melbourne.
00:32:56
Speaker
They have a very tough run coming up. I think they've got GWS this week. Then I think they play Sydney and then it's another tough game after that. Let me just try and find it. Sorry.
00:33:09
Speaker
ah So they play Brisbane. Sorry, GWS, Geelong and then Sydney and then Adelaide. So it's a tough run. Priced at 530K though, which is priced at 55.
00:33:21
Speaker
In a forward line where we're bereft of options, could you do Cam Zaha? but You said he was everywhere, Holmes. He was every bear apart from defending the forward that he was meant to be playing on. He wasn't there. um Look, as a Colby McEacher owner, I hated to see it.
00:33:39
Speaker
um And I was disgusted by the decision. i't I don't know. I think that they'll probably give it another bit of a guy early on in the the game this week and see what it looks like. And then if it's not working, they'll just flip him forward because he's a forward. um Could you do it?
00:33:57
Speaker
Look, given his price point, 532,000, I don't know what Marshall is these days, it's probably similar. So um you could do it. I just don't have much confidence that it's going to stick for, say, four to eight weeks and be the smash player that you're after.
00:34:16
Speaker
But I can see why people are interested. And, yep, there's a ah lot of risk with it, but it could pay off. Louis, I have a bit of PTSD here because I traded into another North Melbourne defender last year priced at 500k after he tonned up, Riley Hardiman, thinking that he had this distributor role and then they moved Colby back into defence and his scoring went south very quickly and i actually traded off him pretty much straight away. So...
00:34:50
Speaker
Zerha is getting a lot of love and I i understand it, but you know can we have any confidence that he'll even play out the full game in defense against JWS and not get thrown forward when they have you know ah they're in a seriously tough matchup? like They're going to get Hogan back. They're going to get Kadman back, as we heard from je Drew.
00:35:10
Speaker
like there's yeah I don't think I can do it personally. I'll put my hand up, but are you interested? Not really, no. um It's like the sixth halfback flanker that we've discussed for North Melbourne and we're six weeks in. So there's probably going to be some games where they're up, but it's it's more a role question, isn't it? I'm just not convinced that Cam Zerha is going to be spending significant time down back. Certainly if they're struggling to score goals as well up forward, I think he he's pretty good up
Forward Line and Player Valuations
00:35:40
Speaker
there. And, um you know, they might have just thrown him back to find a little bit of form. He hasn't been knocking the lights out with a couple of other young guys in the um north forward line sort of outshining him at the moment. And that man you spoke of as well, Riley Hardiman, he's not going to be in the twos for long or is he on the injury list right now? They're going to want to get him into that side and, you know, he might find himself in that distributing role quite quickly too. So...
00:36:07
Speaker
think there's going to be a little bit of a sugar hit there, maybe for a week or two. But, you know, as Jordy mentioned, sometimes you can get stuck with these sorts of guys. And I think this is one that if you are stuck with for a couple of extra weeks past his use by date, it could become quite a grim situation. And i think that combined with the buy round in round 12, where many are really heavy, especially in that forward line, that, know,
00:36:33
Speaker
It's one that I think I'm just happy to go through to the keeper, but I ah certainly wouldn't begrudge any coaches looking to take a punt out there if this was a legitimate role change, just because we've seen that it can be quite a fruitful role, especially for North Melbourne. But just a few too many red flags for me here.
00:36:53
Speaker
All right, Jordy. So let's say there's a coach out there that needs to trade in a forward, but you know they don't want to take on a Zerha. They don't want to take on a Marshall because they don't believe the roles will stick for long enough, which at this point is a fair argument.
00:37:06
Speaker
Let's talk about trading in a premium then. So I'll throw some names at you with some price stats and I just want to get you sort of your raw thoughts here. So I suppose there's some names at the top who are more than likely going to be top six forwards or at least pushing the top six forwards. So you've got names like Cozzy Pickett priced at 103, Petrarca priced at 101, McInerney just keeps getting it done, but he's now priced at 94, Horn Francis now priced at 94,
00:37:33
Speaker
And then we have to kind of go down. So you've got some more value options. So like a Jack Ross priced at 85, Murphy Reed priced at 78. um What are your sort of thoughts here about either paying up or trying to find some value? Chad Warner even priced at 83, I forgot to mention.
00:37:51
Speaker
Yeah, look, there's one guy didn't mention there, Tuk Miller. I still really like Tuk Miller. I know he's priced at 95, but I just think he gets it done. He doesn't need the CBAs. I know we haven't seen all the all of them altogether.
00:38:05
Speaker
I know he's got the R12 buy, but... These guys have got mid-forward status. I'm wondering whether you can even split some of these guys in your midfield and forward just to like get around the buys. I think like Took Miller's one up I'm looking at this week to get in if I need to. And he's not yeah he's just but just above 900K. I still like Chad Warner, as you said. I think he's got the high CBAs.
00:38:28
Speaker
He's probably, i think he's priced at 83 now. We've seen in the past, he's done 85 to 90. So there's probably a little bit of upside there. And, yeah, I got to watch a bit of the Swans on the weekend. And um I actually think McInerney might actually be legit. I think he could be – I think he could actually be a top six, but he probably hasn't got value. But he's probably priced fairly. And with that buy, he's not on round 12. So I actually think he's a pretty good option, I think. And I think he's pretty safe with the role that he has now.
00:39:04
Speaker
Yeah, kicking multiple goals goals a game, you know, is that sustainable? But does he pick up a few extra possessions in in particular games to cover that? Yeah, the the Sydney boys intrigue me just because Sydney are playing such a good brand of footy at the moment. They're winning and winning well.
00:39:19
Speaker
So when they're winning games, you're you're more likely to get ceiling scores out of them. Or at least, you know, when the team's playing well, they can go 90 without too much trouble. tookll I'll put my hand up. Still does worry me a bit, Geordie, just without seeing the full complement of midfielders there and and how much ball there is to go around. And with that round 12 bye, I think he's one i'll I'll go through the keeper. But he keeps getting it done, which is which is good. Louis, you've got something to implement? No, I was just going to say, how how many of you have Harry Sheasel in your forward line?
00:39:50
Speaker
All three? How many have Petrarca? All three? No, I'm sorry. How many have Rochelle? Yep. Yep. All three. How many have Braden Cook?
00:40:03
Speaker
Yep. Yep. Two out of three. Lombard. Yep. We've got four weeks to around 12. So it's, there's a lot of guys who have got that round 12 by right now that we just, I think we have to be mindful of trauma fraud from a forward perspective, especially if we caught more injuries from here.
00:40:25
Speaker
And that's the allure of these Sydney boys, right? And that's why some people went to Cosi Pickett last week, not having that round 12 buy. So, yeah, it is it is very interesting. Jordi, I don't know about trying to hide Took in your midfield during the buys. I don't want to pick six forwards, let alone have seven of them just to get through the the buy round. But interesting strategy nonetheless if we do start to get some some forward values, forward options, sorry, screaming with value. But there are some other options that are starting to present now jordian the one on the weekend on on thursday night nick newman was on an absolute heater against collingwood 80 at half time but then 21 points in the second half was nowhere um he's right for the picking price at 80. is is this the hitting zone for for coaches looking for value in terms of someone that might be able to push close to top six numbers that we're able to get at a dis discount i'll get his run up while you're talking
00:41:18
Speaker
Yeah, I think he's a ah pretty good pick. He's priced at 80. So i think I'd just see him going eighty five ninety just with the Carlton system. um So that might be a little bit less than what you boys might project him at.
00:41:32
Speaker
I'm wondering with Newman, um is he a guy that you you grab now and maybe you can hold him and maybe but back into the year, if we can get that 23rd, 24 primo and you can sort of hold him, he's close enough. You might get a good matchup. You can loop him on. So I'm wondering whether he's a good pick to get now that'll get you through. And then he could also potentially be on that you hold. But I just see him going about 85, 90. So there's about, I think five or 10 points there. I don't see him going more than that. That's just me with the Carlton system. So I think it's a solid pick.
00:42:06
Speaker
Yep, so their run coming up according to the scheduled strength at Moreau's Magic. So the sixth best run for rebounding defenders has Freo this week, which is a green matchup, into St Kilda, which is very green.
00:42:18
Speaker
Then has Brisbane, which is a bit tougher, but then Bulldogs green. Port, pretty neutral. Geelong, a bit tougher. And then Essendon before his bye. So pretty good run. And all it's going to take is a ceiling score in that, Geordie, and then the whole comp tries to go there. And then you're ahead of the comp.
00:42:37
Speaker
Yeah, I really wish... Like, he was killing against the Pies. He was ah probably on 100 at three-quarter time. And shame he didn't go on with it. Could be seen in two ways. You can get him now. Maybe he's got that in him. Or he just had the easiest matchup ever. And he's only gone at 101 ceiling. The week before, we saw him knock out a 70. So...
00:42:56
Speaker
Again, yeah, if if you get if you get do get him on and he can pop that ceiling, or is it a bit of a worry that that is his maximum that he can do? So I think, yeah, I think for me, he's solid. He's one I am looking at, but also he's not a lock for me to bring in.
00:43:11
Speaker
I think there's still room for it. We've seen Ollie Florent, who's come over from Sydney, have a career best fantasy year so far in that role prior to um Nick Newman returning. And I think Nick Newman's going to to take his chips back there and sort of take over that main kick-in distributor role. So...
00:43:28
Speaker
um I'm a little bit more bullish. ah I think he's got a frightening ceiling on him that's going to to pull him up a little bit in terms of averages. um you know He wasn't a stranger to the odd 70 or 80 a year or two ago. Granted, he's getting a little bit long in the tooth now. but I still think that's a player who can get on the end of a couple of 130s with the ball probably going to be spending a little bit of time down there for for the Blues as well. So I think he's a really good pick at that price point and can think of a whole lot worse than what you could take a punt on.
00:44:05
Speaker
Now, Harmy, I want you to keep a lid on it because I know Essendon have been playing well, but there are few Bombers boys that I need to talk about now that they've changed their game style and they're playing good footy. So, Darcy Parrish, after we all traded him out,
00:44:23
Speaker
Back to back tons. All. All. And by all, mean everyone in the comp by you, lucky buggers. And Louis. Yeah. Yeah, you you. So I'm looking at those two down there, Jordy. Back to back tons. Priced at 80.
00:44:38
Speaker
Completely different player than the first few rounds. We've now got Jai Caldwell who has nearly bottomed out priced at 93, breakeven 112.
00:44:49
Speaker
We have Elijah Sardis now that he's in the team playing midfield, getting high CBAs priced at 55, breakeven of nine who's averaging 87. You throw in Zach Merritt who's probably fair price slash overpriced now, but just keeps getting it done averaging 110.
00:45:05
Speaker
Any of these boys options?
00:45:10
Speaker
Well, are they trade in options? the The Bombers are just sort of settled a bit in this the style of game, I think, that they want to play.
00:45:22
Speaker
Merritt's role in the midfield sort of gone backwards a bit, but he didn't have any trouble picking up possessions in the back line and forward line at times on the weekend. So, look, I think that Merritt you wouldn't be really looking at because you'd be looking at people that have dropped in value rather than that top of the line, even though you chased Bailey Smith, Holmesy. He value when I got him, homie. Oh, look...
00:45:47
Speaker
look I would ah would find it very hard to bring in Parrish now, given what he's done. Sardis, I do feel is still depth. However, he's had a good run. You could definitely take a a stab at him based on his break even.
00:46:03
Speaker
um But truthfully, I'm not really looking at any of those guys as trading options. Yeah, I suppose the Parrish thing that's interesting, and I'm not trading it back in, I can't do it to myself, but he's gone from 65%, 70% time on ground to now up to 80%, so clearly he's fit. And think something that maybe Selby mentioned or another podcast, I can't remember, just that...
00:46:27
Speaker
that hunger and thirst of now fighting for your spot. So now that Sardis is in the side and actually playing quite well, there might have been a little bit of pressure on his spot and that's really sort of kicked him into gear and he's a big confidence player in that second half against Melbourne has clearly got him going.
00:46:43
Speaker
Caldwell, I don't think we jump at yet. The CBA still aren't quite where we need them to be for him. I think he's 59% on the weekend. We know that we need him up at that 65-70 being that tackle and mark player.
00:46:56
Speaker
But it's just interesting to take note. They've completely changed their season around over the last few games um and they're actually scoring quite well now and they're not the easy beats that they were at the start of the year.
00:47:07
Speaker
few notable break-evens just to make mention of. We won't go into them in depth now, but Hugh McCluggage has dropped a heap of cash. So he's now priced at 89 with a break-even of 133. His time on ground still sitting at that sort of 65%. So not just yet, but he's going to be someone that we look to target in the future.
Weekend Game Impact on Fantasy Decisions
00:47:27
Speaker
Tim Taranto had the 30 concussion game on the weekend. So he now has a break even of 147. Not saying we go there, but if he gets really, really cheap, that might be someone we look at later in the season.
00:47:39
Speaker
And Bontempele. 28 on the weekend, did get injured but wasn't scoring well before that. Just want to get his price stat up. So he dropped 82K on the weekend. So he's now priced at 1.06 million, which is a 110 price stat figure. Breakeven of 174.
00:47:58
Speaker
Louis, this has shades of last year where he had a tag game and came right down. And then coaches got on him and he was a 115, 120 guy for the rest of the year. So not this week against James Jordan, but is Bont someone you're just going to sort of pencil in to to lock away sometime soon?
00:48:15
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's one where obviously you want to pick him up as cheap as possible, but we know he's an absolute superstar and he's almost impenetrable to the tag. So we'll definitely be targeting Bont in the next coming weeks.
00:48:30
Speaker
And Jordy, you've done the run sheet today, so you put this on here. So few podcasts around talking about potentially trying to loop Zach Butters this week with the O'Sheen Mullen tag coming his way. i think he scored 38 and 46 points last year, some somewhere around that.
00:48:47
Speaker
I know the last one was particularly filthy as I was hunting the car, but Is that getting a little bit cute knowing that, yes, he might score a 30, but you know he could he could well ton up in a game like this and then you've wasted a loop or do you think it's worth the punt?
00:49:04
Speaker
I think it is getting a bit cute, I think. It's hard because the stats are sort of like Mullen just did bond to 28 and he did Rankin the other week to a 20 as well, which is incredible. And the stats there saying that and he can do Butters as well. But with Butters' form, I think, yeah, I think I'm not going to loop it. It's not ideal. I'm just, I'm hoping...
00:49:27
Speaker
I'm hoping Butters can raise the floor on these ceilings, like, you know, a 70. We saw Callaghan get a 70 with a hard tag on Jordan. That's what we want to see from these unreal mids. So, yeah, I'm not going to jump at Shadows and and trade or or loop, but let's just hope he doesn't get 30 40, I think.
00:49:48
Speaker
It is a very good weekend to be going camping and I hope I'm out of service so that Louis can just take charge of my team again like last year, get me on the right on the right track and then I don't have to sit there and and watch Butters not score. But Harmi, before we get into the questions, we we mentioned before that it's upgrade season and and some of our rookies are now starting to get up to being full full value or very close to it and this is the time where...
00:50:12
Speaker
You know, they might they might make another 20, 30K. We might get lucky like we did last year with another ceiling score, which kickst kickstarts some cash gen a la Zach Reed, Levi Ashcroft. Although I don't think the rookies this year are are that caliber of player. So let me just throw some popular rookies at you with their break-evens and then talk me through how you kind of rank order of our trade priority. So we've got Jagger Smith now has a break-even of 62.com.
00:50:41
Speaker
Lockie McAndrew has a break-even of 56. I don't think we touch him just yet, although he does have the Brisbane matchup this week. Lockie Jakes has 54 break-even. Grill now has a 54 break-even. Carroll's getting up there at 45.
00:50:54
Speaker
Dersmer at 45, but we don't touch him. Sarong, 42. Cook, 42. how do you How do you determine which out of these guys are the ones that you're going to start to trade off for upgrade season first?
00:51:07
Speaker
ah Look, ah I'll try, I'll just talk through, print I'll try and get to this quickly mate. Jacob Smith, I reckon there's potential that he could score better than 62 as in the average i in the 70s, closer to 80. So I'd be willing to hold him for a little bit. Lockie McAndrew, we're not moving him for at least three, four weeks minimum.
00:51:28
Speaker
Lockie Jakes, he can go. Sam Grill, he can go. Actually, I don't think he finished the game on the weekend. think he was injured. Jack Carroll, he can go. Willem Dersmer, same as Smith. He'll hold him for a bit longer. He's outperforming his break even. Jaisarong, same. He's still got some high scores to carry through. He's average, so he'll continue to make money. He should hold him. Braden Cook, don't think he finished the game the other day, did he? or He scored an 80, but he was icing He was very good.
00:51:54
Speaker
Very good. Yeah, iced up his calf after the game. Yep. I'm hoping he's injured and he's a write-off because I haven't had him all season. Yeah, the news says he was fine. The Adelaide news just last night.
00:52:05
Speaker
Damn. Army, stop. I know what you're doing. Stop. Hold on. I'm almost there, mate. The Myers, yep, you can hold him for a while longer. Scored 70. He's looking very good. And Josh Lindsay, he's got money to make too. So the ones that I said you can move on are Jakes, Grill, Carroll,
00:52:23
Speaker
The rest I'd probably be pretty comfortable with holding. Yeah, and I think probably think what you said, the the important thing, right? Like if we look at, I already touched on it, but if you look at Levi Ashcroft and Zach Reid last year, they burnt coaches because just when they were getting close to being topped out, they had the ability to put on that ceiling score, right? So if we if we use Jagger Smith, I know coaches might be looking to get off him this week, but we have seen him ton up early in the season. Now, he's a long way from that.
00:52:53
Speaker
But what's not to say at some point this has been management and then Carlton switch things up a bit. They unleash him into the midfield and he has another 80-90 and he starts kick kick-starting that cash again.
00:53:03
Speaker
Dersma, you don't touch Dersma. He's just a very good player and one that I've missed. But if you can't see a ceiling score from some of these other rookies, now Jax has had a ton before. But outside of round one, he's been dropping and he's been managed and his time on ground is dropping. So you're right. He can he can go, I think. the The chances of him burning you with a ceiling score, I think, are quite low.
00:53:24
Speaker
Same with Sam Grill. And he's been even lower. So he had a 90, but then outside of that, he's been a 55, 60 guy. So I think that's the the thing the listeners need to take away, Lou, is that... The ones that have the ability to burn you with a pop score, you just hold them for a little bit longer, but then you take a punt on the other guys that they're not going to burn you and you just jump off and get onto the next guy coming up.
00:53:46
Speaker
Yep. Nah, spot on. Where do you see the goat, Michael Selwood within that John Harmy? Oh, well, he can go, but yeah. between Who was the other one you said you had earlier that was oh Watkins? Was it Watkins? Yeah. Watkins can go. He could have gone four-mile ago. yours higher than mine, Luke? Anyway. I mean, didn't you start Dyson Sharp? Because I've got Michael Selwood. That's the difference.
00:54:13
Speaker
No, yeah. Dyson Sharp. Over Dersmer. There you go. If I'd started bloody Dersmer. I think Jordy's the only one smiling on the podcast with Dersma at the moment. love Dersma. Taking him the promised land.
00:54:26
Speaker
And you know why? i thought I tossed that up so long. it was really hard. Choice, I've gone, oh, well, Dyson Sharp was a high junior scorer. He's going to have to score high when he comes in. They're both playing round one.
00:54:38
Speaker
Man, anyway, whatever. Anyway, Jordy, let's just quickly bang through the rookie options before we get on to the questions. So, you know You've got Milan Murdoch, who I don't think it's too late, priced at 50. He's just getting it done. What he did on limited time on ground on the weekend, he's got a really high tackle floor.
00:54:55
Speaker
So I think it's not too late for him. But in saying that, I paid up for Farrow this week and I do kind of regret it. so Milan Murdoch, Angus Anderson now priced at 38 with a break-even negative 26. Retchco with those Richmond injuries, you'd think he has some more job security now priced at 27 with a break-even of negative three.
00:55:15
Speaker
Charlie Edwards was actually quite good priced at 27 with a break-even of zero, although I would be worried about when Dawson eventually comes back in. And then Sullivan Robey has that forward option with the DPP price at 36, break even of 13.
00:55:30
Speaker
If coaches aren't willing to double downgrade, where where do they go this week? Because you want to get it right. Yeah, well, I think obviously Angus Anderson is is the main guy there. Price at 38, obviously done some really good scores. I think, you know, Dugowie and Saibot, I saw today, are coming in, but he was named with those guys in there. I know he scored pretty well in the midfield when those guys got injured a couple of weeks ago. But I just, yeah, I mean, there was a chance that they...
00:55:58
Speaker
You know, he gets less time. I think with Anderson, he actually wasn't, he was on 29, I think at halftime and sort of gone. 17. Yeah, there you go. so we're all bit worried about, bady you know, maybe doing a low score, but I just, I don't know. For me, I think I'm not going to try and overthink it. And I think I'm just going to get him.
00:56:17
Speaker
um But yeah, I mean, they do have guys coming back. um I do also like Retchko. I think those year year two, I think with the the injuries at the Tigers and he was a name in the preseason as well. So i think that they're both good options. Like for me, I might get Anderson and if Retchko's there next week, I might grab him the week after.
00:56:39
Speaker
So think that's where I'm leaning. I know it's pretty sort of straight back, but happy to do that, I think.
Listener Questions and Advice
00:56:45
Speaker
Yeah, I think the important thing at this time of year is the job security, right? So, i mean, Anderson's put up the scores.
00:56:51
Speaker
His job security is probably a little bit lower than some of the other guys outside of Edwards, but he's put up the scores. Everything outside of Collingwood, coming out of Collingwood, sorry, has been really positive. Like they put him up for an interview after the game on Fox footy. So,
00:57:05
Speaker
he's He's going quite well, has a good role. Retchko, you'd think it's taken him a long time to get into the side, but he actually looked quite well on the weekend. And something I noticed, he didn't have his first rest until about 20 minutes into the second quarter. So he was 100% tog pretty much up until halftime and then obviously finished with 87. So it came down a little bit, but we love rookies that play high time on ground.
00:57:28
Speaker
um Then we have, you know, Edwards, I think is just too risky. He's going to have a good role and score quite well. But with those guys coming back, Saligo, Dawson, I think you just let that one go through to the keeper. And then, Harmi, I haven't watched much Bombers, but Roby, what's his role?
00:57:44
Speaker
ah he's ah He's a forward. he He doesn't really move too far up the ground. So he's playing he's playing good in his role. I think that the Bombers will want to try and keep him in the team for a while yet. So I've been pretty impressed with him. Kicked two goals on weekend, I think, from memory.
00:58:04
Speaker
Yeah, I think, yeah, being a forward is quite handy, but I think, yeah, he's not going to have the scoring compared to those other guys. Played a really good game on the weekend for that 66 where the other guys, I think, have easier access to more consistent points.
00:58:19
Speaker
All right, let's get into the questions. As always, as a reminder, sorry, the PodPod has partnered with Q Platforms again in 2026 to help answer all of your AFL fantasy questions. So,
00:58:30
Speaker
If you're a Marrera's Magic season guide holder, Selby and myself record our podcast late in the week that covers all of the general questions and themes. But if you'd like a guaranteed answer to any of your AFL fantasy questions, whether it be a full team review or just individual questions, head over to askmeonq.com forward slash pod pod AFL. The link is in the show description below and I will help you out with those questions.
00:58:55
Speaker
We'll try and get through as many of these as we can for the next 10 minutes. So, Harmy, first one is from Bontsville Wizard. Hey, boys, looking at upgrading this week finally with without any forced trades. One up, one down. So he's looking to go Jagger to a rookie and then Lockie Jarks up to Christian Petrarca, which leaves him Murphy Reader F6. What are your thoughts?
00:59:16
Speaker
Yeah, brilliant. That's what i'm looking to do. One down, one up. And, yeah, I've got no real criticism of what he's looking to do there. That's good. Yeah, I think that comes down to the fact what we spoke about earlier is if you're just not comfortable with those value options, just locking away a Christian Petrarca who at the end of the day might be a few points overpriced but is more than likely fair value with the ability to go large, which we have seen.
00:59:42
Speaker
Jordy, this one is from Ben. Can we avoid the Mullen and Jordan tags by targeting Swans and Cats premium? So that's ah that's an interesting thing. Baz Smith's never going to get the Mullen tag.
00:59:56
Speaker
Priced at 130 now, Holmesy. It's a fair point, but ah I mean, the Swans' primos are probably better to target, right? You've got the McInerneys, the Warners. I mean, Heaney's at 110, so maybe the forward there. But ah yeah, you are right. They're the two best taggers in the game. But um you can't pay it for Baz 130, can you?
01:00:15
Speaker
no Boy, he's just gone 140. Trust me, he's taking me the promised land. No, you can't pay 130 for Baz. You got to hope he comes down a little bit. Louis, this one is from ba from Forest. sorry If you can do two rookies to Anderson and Nassaya Wanganem-Milera, is that the move? So a traditional one down, one up to get in Nassaya with a good rookie or is it worth exploring value with the likes of Newman Romar and Zerha so the one down one up to a ah rookie in an underpriced primo or two potential value options what do you think
01:00:48
Speaker
I think you bank Anderson and his cash generation and Wanganeen Miller and his um top six status come the end of the year. ah While I'm you know pretty keen on like a Newman, I don't mind a Roma, I ah think you're introducing a certain amount of risk there and potentially a couple of trades within the next six weeks when you really want to be using them to upgrade your side through the buyers. so play the straight bat, grab the rookie with cash generation and the and the Uber premium or what we hope will be.
01:01:19
Speaker
Yep, I agree. I'll put my hand up. So in now in our group chat, I put up some trades last night, which was doing exactly that. So looking at a a Newman and a Rowan Marshall from ah a Buderick and a rookie.
01:01:33
Speaker
um But with the news of Marshall potentially only being sole ruck for one week, if at all, I think personally, i'd I'd lock in the Anderson, get that that rookie cash gen going to an underpriced premium. And then if we see it from Zerhar another week, he's still only going to be priced at 60. We see the role again and he can go 85, then that's still going to be 25 points of value, which you're going to potentially get that from a rookie anyway. So I'm firmly in the camp of waiting another week on Zerhar.
01:02:02
Speaker
But we do know coaches that go early on these types of moves can be the car winning pick. ah Harmi, this one is from Brett Muller. Hi guys, trading out Windsor and a Rook, which is going to be Jagger and bringing in Angry Anderson.
01:02:17
Speaker
So his options are bringing in 846K or less forward, which benches Gothard, bringing in an 846K back, which benches are Jax or Sorong.
01:02:29
Speaker
um So what are your thoughts there? So do you bring in the forward and bench the Gothard or do you bring in the defender and bench the defender rookie? Depends who going to bring in. I probably wouldn't let the rookie sway you in that decision like your Gothard versus Sarong could be equivalent. So it depends on the $840,000 player in, a reckon.
01:02:52
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, there are some options in defense, right? Like you'd look at a Nick Newman. he's He's under that price. You probably have to to do a Warner or something like that in in the forward line. So i I think I'd probably rather, and ah it was my philosophy last week and not going the forward, right? So I think in this option, I'd rather probably go Newman or a value defender.
01:03:11
Speaker
Or um maybe even some DPP to look at a value mid if you can. But yeah, Gothard's done nothing wrong. We keep thinking he's going to have a floor score. But he's just a very, very good footballer. And they got him up around the ball on the weekend. And I think the weekend prior too, Harmi.
01:03:27
Speaker
As a general rule, this season the backs have been scoring better, so maybe that's where you go. And, yeah, what have you got? Nick Newman, yeah, you said him. Bailey Dale could potentially start to rise again now.
01:03:41
Speaker
He's lost a lot of money and he scored 100, think, on the weekend. Jordy, this one is from Olivia Calvi, HiPodPod. Is it sensible to trade out an underwhelming Noah Anderson, who's likely out again this week and is going to bleed cash, to Naz and a rookie or and to a top forward? Or does he hold Anderson and go with the traditional one rookie down one rookie up to a top forward? So what do you think here? Do you hold the premium and still do your trades anyway? Or do you just cut your ties with Noah, who's been underwhelming, and get in two premiums?
01:04:18
Speaker
Geez, like, is Noah, I didn't check the report, but he's he a he's a chance to play, i think, isn't he? Oh, he's more unlikely than More unlikely, yeah. Um, I wonder why he potentially didn't trade last week. Must've had some other, well, we had obviously the other bullets. yeah Um, geez, Anderson's not really doing the best and he's break even is quite high. So do you just cut tires? But this again is the question last week about the Caldwell thing. And we saw Caldwell come out and do a, and do a one Oh nine, um, on the weekends. Um,
01:04:54
Speaker
Look, let's just go with Anderson. If he's going to miss, I think maybe obviously had the bullets last week. I think you just trade him and maybe you can trade into him. Again, if we see the roll and the price will come down, obviously we've got to see the all four of them there. I think that's what I would do.
01:05:13
Speaker
See, I'm in the opposite camp, Jordy. And what you just said there kind of sums it up where you're saying, oh, well, if the if he turns it around and starts scoring again, we trade back into him. That's an indication that he's still a good player and it can actually turn around. Like we haven't seen him in that side with Petrarca, Rao, Took, all going.
01:05:30
Speaker
Maybe he doesn't get the attention when Petrarca's back in and he can run free a little bit and turn it around. So if you're... If you're trade sideways trading premiums this round, I know it it might get you the sugar hit this week, but it's not actually getting you ahead. And then other coaches will get ahead of you in upgrade season. So I'd actually be in the other camp of holding him and hope he turns it around.
01:05:52
Speaker
I had Noah last year. He was a bit of a roller coaster, but I still have faith that he can that he can turn it around in that Gold Coast side. But I do i do understand the the philosophy of wanting to trade him out because he's been putting up some serious floor scores to start the year.
01:06:07
Speaker
Louis, we'll go two more. This one's from Sean. Does Bolton need to go over trading a rookie or do you just need to hold him as the forward line is all over the place? What was that? Bolton needs to go in favor of? Yeah, so he's basically asking, you know, does Shai Bolton need to go ahead of these rookies because he's starting to bleed cash or because he's in that forward line that no one really wants to trade into, into sorry do you just hold him, hope he turns it around and and trade around him?
01:06:37
Speaker
Gee, I think I would get rid of Bolton there. There's nothing worse than a player who's priced at that point. It's just not putting up scores that even resemble close to sort of top six forward line scores. he He's scoring like a rookie and he's priced twice as much. So I think I would just cut ties with Bolton, full well knowing that he's he's unlikely to be around the top six areas anyway.
01:07:01
Speaker
Does play Carlton this week. Pretty soft matchup here in Perth. He's burnt you with some 60s, but... Yeah, I don't know. that one That one's a tricky one. I think I'm still holding him to try and fix up everything elsewhere and hope he bounces back. But yeah, it's it's a killer when you've got to trade your premiums that aren't forced in upgrade season when everyone else is being able to upgrade their side. Harmi, this is the last one for you.
01:07:24
Speaker
It's from Tim Jacobs. I'm currently rolling with Filippo plus Cook at F5 and F6 with Dev Rob still at F7. Is it a priority to trade into a forward option, whether it be a Marshall, Rankin, JHF type or make an upgrade in the midfield that I actually like or like a Nassai, Wanganin, Milera? So do you keep playing with Filippo and Cook at F5 and F6 and get in a forward premium or do you run it and then just get a midfield option that you like?
01:07:51
Speaker
Well, it depends who the midfielder is that you're trading out, I suppose, as well, because he didn't mention it in the question. I'll tell you who has looked bad this year. Matthias Philippot, far out.
01:08:02
Speaker
He'd be very happy to move him on, I reckon. Even against the Eagles this week? Oh, mate. He's bad. He's very bad, but would you do it against the Eagles?
01:08:16
Speaker
Yep. Trade him out. Yeah, but that's only... Break even of 56. It's only one week. Oh, yeah, but that's... He's probably averaging 56, mate. I don't think he is. He doesn't look good against um anybody.
01:08:29
Speaker
Nah, he hasn't. I know I started him. out. Oh, dear. Look, it depends who the midfield is. If you can get to a premium midfielder, maybe hold both for this week. Cook, I wouldn't be moving Cook at the moment.
01:08:46
Speaker
I'd be holding him anyway. So I think he's fine. it's just Isn't he injured? Yeah, he's got ice on his calf. It's just Filippo or the midfielder who you're trading out is probably your trade-off there and who you can get to.
01:08:59
Speaker
I like the Eagles matchup this week. I hear what you guys are saying about him looking bad. He's not he's got low time on ground and there's no CBAs, even with St Kilda putting about eight blokes, 12 blokes through there at times because they don't know their midfield mix.
01:09:13
Speaker
I think I'd be bringing in a forward option this week and then looping between Philippone and Cook if you can because I am nervous about the Cook matchup against Brisbane at the Gabba. I think it could be quite... tricky but yeah, Filippo has to go at some stage. It's just you might get a bit of Darcy Parrish
Episode Wrap-Up and Final Advice
01:09:30
Speaker
action where he burns you on the way out but I don't think that's going to happen with Filippo even against the Eagles with week this week but boys, that's going to wrap us up.
01:09:39
Speaker
Another big episode there, talk through all the hot topics and a bunch of players. Harmi as the top-ranked coach on the pod and the one that is fantastic. flying the flag for us here at Pod Pod you're the only one up with the hat chat boys so just keep in mind we have a reputation to uphold so you've got to go past them just give our listeners ah some closing thoughts oh look some closing thoughts would be um this time of year we try to reduce the number of rookies on field and removing those failed mid prices so if you've got some money or you've got the opportunity to go one down one up that's where I'd be looking myself
01:10:17
Speaker
Wise words from our two-time top 10 finisher. Make sure you are following us at PodPod AFL on X. I'm at Holmeses Heroes.
01:10:27
Speaker
Make sure you are subscribed to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your content. We'll be back next Tuesday after round seven to review the round that was.
01:10:39
Speaker
We're all on the way up. We're all going to continue just grinding together to climb the ranks and keep charging towards the buy rounds. Bye. you