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Very-Very-Very Early Pre-Season Thoughts #PODPOD
1.4k Plays3 days ago
Some very early pre-season thoughts for the die hard listeners out there who might be starting to crave some AFL Fantasy content. Keep an eye out on the socials... some big announcements for the PODPOD in 2026 dropping very soon!
Follow us on X:
The PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Lewy: @LewyAF
Harmey: @jonharmey
Dos: @HKdos
Sam: @grillis03
Jordy: @jordandsena
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Transcript
Welcome and Introduction
00:00:14
Jon Harmey
you
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic. It's the 1st of December. We thought we'd get the gang together just to catch up in and maybe put a podcast out there for all those diehards that are itching for some content at this time of year.
00:00:36
Holmesy
I know it's coming up to my favourite time of the AFL Fantasy Preseason. As always, I'm joined by two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019, John Harmy, fresh off the AFL draft in Essendon, seemingly winning the draft and pumped for a big year.
00:00:54
Holmesy
Harmy, mate, how are you?
00:00:56
Jon Harmey
Yes, Manny Rosa comes in and it's just ah yeah another win. It's like, yeah, would I say 26 seasons in a row that we've won the draft, so I'm expecting a lot coming into the season, mate.
00:01:07
Holmesy
how the ah How's the emotions after the one good player that you do have on your list has done his ACL for the second time in in five months, Hami? Are we going okay with the Nick Martin news?
00:01:18
Jon Harmey
Zach Merritt went down with the ACL, did he? Best player?
00:01:22
Holmesy
Plays for Hawthorne, doesn't he?
00:01:25
Jon Harmey
No, fortunately not.
00:01:27
Lew
ah
00:01:28
Holmesy
Beautiful. And we do have the perennial top 1K finisher and future hat winner, Louis. Mate, how are you?
00:01:37
Lew
Good, mate. Thank you. i like your optimism there. the Fingers crossed for this season. We've certainly rolled out the pre-season pretty early this year, so it's a nice little run-up for us all.
00:01:48
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I love chatting at this time of year, personally. like as As you kind of say, tongue in cheek, Lou, everyone's right at this time of year, no one's wrong. But personally, I think the preseason is almost the best part of it, right? Getting to to research players, listen to the news, chat to your mates, try and put a squad together. And although the game's not open, Lou, I'm sure we can talk a little bit later about your your spreadsheet and what you've got out. But yeah, I i really like this
Preseason Excitement and Preparation
00:02:12
Holmesy
time of year. And We do have the freshest PodPod member here for us in 2026, Jordy DeSena.
00:02:19
Holmesy
Glad to have you back on the show again, mate. What's going on?
00:02:22
JORDAN D'SENA
hey smay Thanks, mate. Thanks for having me on Yeah, talking about pre-season, me and Louis actually have already been down to port training two weeks ago. and i don't know, Louis, maybe we could give a few nuggets. But yeah, we're keen, keen to use Louis' spreadsheet as well. But um yeah, pre-season is underway.
00:02:40
Lew
Yeah, I'll give you a nugget. They're training the house down at the moment, guys. Get on board.
00:02:45
JORDAN D'SENA
And they're moving well.
00:02:46
Lew
Some of those, they're moving well.
00:02:47
Jon Harmey
Hold on, hold on.
00:02:48
Lew
They're running on top of the grass as well, i noticed.
00:02:48
JORDAN D'SENA
but
00:02:51
Jon Harmey
This takes me back to last pre-season where Louis talked me into picking up Jason Horne Francis because everybody that didn't pick him was going to lose the comp. I remember that one, Holmesie?
00:03:01
Holmesy
that The next Chris Judd, he was calling him.
00:03:05
Lew
ah Yeah, that one didn't start the way we wanted, did it?
00:03:08
JORDAN D'SENA
Classic.
00:03:10
Lew
But we might be discussing him again this season as he comes in priced about the exact same price, I reckon. So more midfield time.
00:03:16
Holmesy
Well, even less, Lou, but with no focus, which we will get to a little bit later
New AFL Fantasy Rules and Strategy Adjustments
00:03:21
Holmesy
on. But as I said, just putting a podcast out there for for some of our more diehard listeners that are itching for a bit of content. So won't be too structured today, just a general catch up and just to discuss some of the things that have been going on recently in the AFL fantasy space. So, I mean, we'll start there, Lou. The first thing we'll we'll sort of touch over is sort of the new rule changes and and how we sort of expect that to to line up this year. And I suppose the first one is the the change from the sub. So the sub's now no longer there. So no red and green vest. And we've now moved to a best 23 team instead of a best 22, Lou.
00:03:58
Holmesy
initial thoughts, how do you see that playing out for for different teams?
00:04:02
Lew
First of all, it's nice to not have the sub in the game anymore. I know that plenty of coaches out there just wanted to switch off to you know some extent over the weekend and not have to worry about all that sub fiasco. So now obviously we move to five on the bench. I still think we may have some issues with time on ground and things like that. But in terms of sort of getting stitched up by that sub rule, it is no more, which is going to be really nice.
00:04:31
Lew
um I'm interested to see how it all plays out, though. I know each team's going to be a little bit different. There's certainly going to be some teams that roll out a taller side and and rotate by the bench that way. And there's going to be you know some coaches that are going to bring the kids in and still probably play them like 40%, 50% tog with that extra spot. I can already see Ross Lyon debuting a couple of rookies and they both split their chips for about 50% tog each.
00:04:59
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I can't wait for Freo to roll out a side round one that features Luke Jackson, Sean Darcy, Mason Cox, Josh Tracy, Jai Amos, just as tall as we can get. Can't wait for that to happen. But you are right. Every every team's going to do it differently.
00:05:15
Holmesy
We are going to see probably some low time on ground for our rookies, but at the same time, anything's going to be better than the 3% TOG games that we got from some of the the green vest guys last year. I think it's going to be...
00:05:28
Holmesy
beneficial for our cash gen and knowing that there's not that chance that our our rookies are going to come on for for a single digit score or even a negative score.
00:05:32
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
00:05:36
Holmesy
I think Saad Hale-Hawley-Harmy, one of the Bomber Boys last year. So I think that's that's going to be a positive. Jordy, how do you sort of see the the best 23 playing out? playing out
00:05:47
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah, I sort of have the same thoughts as Louis. I think the double ruck is going to be a big one. And obviously some teams have really strengthened there. Obviously St Kilda, TDK and and Marshall. And Saints are pretty hard on not letting Marshall go for a good deal. think we're going to see a bit of that, which is going to be interesting because the ruck line this year, I think, is going to be...
00:06:07
JORDAN D'SENA
yeah, what we do with R2 and R3. But I think, yeah, I think we might've mentioned it in the October pod that it's just nice that a rookie is not going to be Sabo in the debut game. And as we said, we'd write even if it is 40%, at least we'd rather him have 40% on the field and maybe he can get a score that's going to not kill the cash gen. You know, I think there's been those rookies out there, what, Traynor got a two.
00:06:32
JORDAN D'SENA
yeah, You know, if he gets 30 or something, maybe can still keep it going. So I think it's only going to be a good thing.
Impact of New Ruck Rules
00:06:40
Holmesy
Yep, yep, agree with that. Now, the other sort of announcement before we get into the rule changes is that unfortunately, well, not unfortunately, I actually don't mind it, but for AFL Fantasy coaches, opening round will be back again this year, although it's now not only just the Northern States, they've now got a game in in Melbourne, which, I mean, go go work that out. I can't quite figure it out, but five Five games in opening now round now, which means we're going to have 10 teams that are going to have a bye throughout rounds two to four.
00:07:12
Holmesy
So we have round two. We've got Carlton, Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood on the bye. Then in round three, we've got Gold Coast, Hawks, Sydney and Bulldogs. And then lastly in round four, Saints and GWS. So it is different from two years ago when they had Gather Round in the middle, which had the buys either side of that. So at least they're condensing it and getting it out the way, Harmi. But do you forecast any sort of changes this year in how we should play the first few rounds of the season when we have these opening round buys?
00:07:43
Jon Harmey
I think we'll still be favouring those teams that don't have that early buy if we have a choice. i actually want to go back and have a look at those teams that were up there last year and see if they started with many of the buy players and see how they played it because it may be... um Something to learn there.
00:08:05
Jon Harmey
I think, Holmesy, you started with a couple of early by players, didn't you?
00:08:07
JORDAN D'SENA
Thank you.
00:08:08
Jon Harmey
And I think as long as they weren't premiums where you're really going to lose out on it quite a few points, then it didn't have a large impact um on the overall way the season played out.
00:08:20
Holmesy
Yeah, well, there were some pretty popular players early that a lot of us started. think I can't remember all of them off the top of my head, but we all started a Perryman, those types. I do think that we need to take last year's season as a bit of ah with a grain of salt because you remember, Harmi, we had that cyclone go through, which meant the Gold Coast-Essendon game and the Brisbane-Geelong game actually got postponed out of gather round.
00:08:40
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:08:44
Jon Harmey
yep
00:08:44
Holmesy
um which meant we only really had four teams on the buy, which meant that it was far easier for teams to navigate early days, whereas now we've got the we've got the five games and 10 teams in total. So i think we're going to go through it all a lot more in the preseason. I think, as always, if if a player is fully priced or doesn't present that much value, you probably steer clear.
00:09:07
Holmesy
um But any sort of rookie mid-pricer or underpriced premium that ha is presenting a lot of value, I think we can go there. You've just got to be careful not to pair too many of them together in the same side because, I mean, one of the things I'm trying to do better this year is to start better.
00:09:22
Holmesy
And if you've got two, three, four players on the buy and you you find yourself 200 points behind, then it's a lot to catch up. Lou, have you thought about the opening round by as much?
00:09:30
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:09:32
Lew
not Not as a yet, mate, but I think that really stands out to me, wanting to have a good start just because if you do get behind, obviously, so many variables when you're playing fantasy. If you get kicked while you're down, it's just so much worse than...
00:09:48
Lew
Whether you just start a team that's, you know, going to be available across those first couple of weeks. So, you know, like you said, we're definitely going to go a lot more in depth in a couple of months time when we get closer to the season beginning. But I think it's going to be a little bit of plug and play of last season. But as you said, it's going to be a little bit more tricky just with having the additional, what, four teams that are actually going to be a part of this bye period.
00:10:15
Holmesy
Beautiful. All right, so let's get stuck into some of these rule changes now. And I don't want to be too dramatic yet, but are we seeing the death of the AFL fantasy Ruckman?
00:10:25
Holmesy
Now, some of these rule changes, I think, might have quite a big effect on how our Ruckman score fantasy points.
00:10:27
Jon Harmey
Mm-hmm.
00:10:32
Holmesy
Now, admittedly, They'll all be training the new rules in preseason now and we know that these guys are elite and that they that they're all they're already going to be changing how they play the game to suit the new rules. But let's go through some of these rule changes that affect the Ruckman. So the first one is the last disposal rule that the AFL has brought in in line with the Sample.
00:10:53
Holmesy
Now, this rule I don't believe is going to be as drastic as what's kind of been painted in the community so far. So between the arcs, the AFL is moving to a last possession rule, which means that if the ball is not touched, either via kick or a handball and it goes out of bounds, be It is now no longer insufficient attempt, but it will be a free kick awarded straightaway to the opposition team. Now, something I didn't realise until I researched this a little bit is that a normal boundary throw-in will occur if a player is blocked or doesn't play the ball before it goes out. So it's not simply a case that all...
00:11:28
Holmesy
all disposals that go out between the arcs will be an automatic free kick. There will still be some throw-ins if the ball is not contested properly. So the AFL in their testing has suggested that there's only going to be three free kicks per game extra compared to when the insufficient rule was played. And that then brings the stoppage points down more in line to what they saw in 2022, 2023. clearly they're trying to open the game back up.
00:11:56
Holmesy
and get rid of some stoppages. So first off, Jordi, how do you see that rule playing out?
00:12:02
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah, it's it's hard, isn't it? Because like you said, three extra free kicks, you think that would go to potentially wingman or a midfielder. But the ruck contests were up this year. So if that goes, think they want to get it down and get the game going faster. So 2024, it had 95. So in that year, we still had these rucks going 115. Cherry went 115. Marshall went 117.
00:12:30
JORDAN D'SENA
marscha went one seventeen in that year in 2024. And that was that's what they want to do. So it's hard to know what's this going to happen in this with this rule.
00:12:36
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:12:40
JORDAN D'SENA
i think the next rule that we'll talk about with the jumping might have more of an effect on the rucks than this one, ah I think.
00:12:48
Holmesy
Yep, so we'll we'll hold the jumping for now. the one The big one that I want to talk about, and I think this will have the biggest effect, is actually the change to the Ruck nomination rule. So the AFL doesn't want to waste time any anymore anymore for um waiting um waiting for the umpires to get the Ruckman into the contest, and they want the ball thrown up straight away, whether or not the Ruckman is there or not. So the AFL estimates that.
00:13:14
Holmesy
On average, four stoppages and then six centre bounces per game, or sorry, six throw-ins and four stoppages per game were held up waiting for the for the Ruckman to arrive. So if we think about our Max Gorns, we think about our Darcy Camerons, those those types that love getting down the line and taking those intercept marks, I think they will need to change the way they play the game because if they're 100, 150 metres off the play down the line waiting for those kicks, if there's a stoppage up the ground, the umpires aren't waiting for them to run back to the contest anymore.
00:13:43
JORDAN D'SENA
Thank you.
00:13:48
Holmesy
they're just going to throw the ball straight up. So that could be up to 10 contests per game where the Ruckman isn't there and the ball just gets thrown up straight away, which we know 10 contests per game, that's 10 hit outs that they don't have available and then all the tackles and kicks and marks and stuff that come from that army.
00:14:05
Holmesy
obviously there's a lot to play out, but do you see that rule affecting different Ruckman more than others?
00:14:12
Jon Harmey
Yeah, you will. um As Geordie sort of said, it is a bit hard to predict, but on face value, I think that there's probably ah a bit of a drop incoming. And yeah, I'm a bit concerned about those, um the the bigger, slower um rucks, not so much your Tim English, Max Gorn types, but yeah, Sean Darcy types, I think are probably um likely to feel feel the pain of those rule changes.
00:14:44
Holmesy
Yeah, 100%. You'd think it lends more to, ah as you mentioned, a Tim English, Tom DeConing, even a Riley O'Brien who is still considered more of an aerobic around-the-ground ruckman getting contest contest to contest.
00:14:58
Holmesy
Any ruckman that can play as that sort of extra midfielder, Luke Jackson, those types, I think this rule will really, really benefit. So, Harmi.
00:15:06
Jon Harmey
Lou, you were pretty keen on Briggs from memory. You reckon it hurts his ability to get to 100?
00:15:13
Lew
Yeah, I think it's going to to hurt a lot of those sort of big rucks that rely on their body size, but we'll see how it all pans out. I think with that fifth interchange there as well, there's definitely room to move in terms of a bit of strategy with how they deploy their rucks.
00:15:24
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:15:30
Lew
I can already see Maxi, you know, floating across halfback and maybe if he can't get to a contest, they're rejigging something with a forward pushing up to to take that. So,
00:15:40
Lew
We'll see what that means, but I think we will probably see teams start playing a little bit taller with that extra spot, I think.
00:15:50
Holmesy
Beautiful, Lou. And we will stay on the Kieran Briggs discussion because he's someone I've sort of had a look at as well. But how do you think the new center bounce rule will affect these big bodied Ruckman, Louie? So the the wrestle at the center bounce is now gone. So obviously they're not bouncing the ball up anymore. And the two Ruckman now have to jump at each other.
00:16:10
Holmesy
that the They have to jump.
00:16:10
Lew
Do have to jump?
00:16:12
Holmesy
So the data that the AFL has given us is that in 2025, only 21% of center bouncers had at least one jumping ruckman.
00:16:12
Jon Harmey
Mm-hmm.
00:16:12
Lew
Okay, yep.
00:16:22
Holmesy
And two years ago, that was at 63%. So clearly, you think of your Brodie Grundy's, your Kieran Briggs, your Tristan Cherries that would just line up pretty much on that line. And then as soon as the ball was bounced, they would run across and just wrestle the other ruckman.
00:16:37
Holmesy
How do you see that playing out in terms of now the two Ruckman have to start on opposite sides and they do have to jump?
00:16:44
Lew
Look, it definitely favours the more athletic rucks. There's no doubt about that. But, you know, you mentioned 21% of centre bounces in 2025 had at least one jumping ruck. They were all doing the same strategy anyway. So I think that's what we're going to, we're going to see everybody sort of swimming in the same pool next season. And,
00:17:03
Lew
There's going to be room for coaches to to figure out what works for them here in the centre bounce. im I'm definitely forecasting a lot more injuries straight away with the rucks if 63% of them are going to be jumping into each other.
00:17:15
Lew
So the durability is going to take a bit of a knock, I think.
00:17:17
Holmesy
Oh.
00:17:19
Lew
Potentially because of that, the TOG takes a knock, which is why ah sort of think that fifth interchange spot may be used for a bit of a taller player. um But I actually really don't think that it's going to drag anybody down so far. I just think that some of the more athletic types like a Tom DeConning springs to mind immediately might be able to find more of an advantage in the contest.
00:17:44
Lew
I still don't know if that's going to equate to fantasy points though because you know it's just the hit outs are obviously a flaw but it's about what you can do around the ground too.
00:17:55
Jon Harmey
We've said this a couple of times already in this podcast, you know, a couple of rucks or, you know, couple of tools or taking an extra tool in, but that's not really going to be the go, isn't it? It's just, you're going to get more minutes out of your supporting ruckman who's a forward. Like, audit did I don't know.
00:18:14
Jon Harmey
I don't know what you say. Darcy, maybe be at the um the Bulldogs. a lot You're like, you're just going to get more out of that forward who pinch hits, aren't you?
00:18:24
Holmesy
think that's the beauty of it, homie. I think everyone's going to do it differently. Like um as Louis mentioned off the top, St. Kilda are ah very clearly going to go to genuine Ruckman. Freo have done the same. Brisbane did the same in their premiership. But then you you do get a Max Gorn who does 85%, 90% and then someone chops out for a couple of minutes and then he's back back doing what he does. So i think that's the beauty of it, that teams are going to do it differently.
00:18:49
Holmesy
But at the same time, although it is only early December, I would be very cautious paying up for any Ruckman to start the year because we we really don't know how these new rules
Top Draft Picks and Rookies
00:19:02
Holmesy
are going to play out. And if you pay 110 price tag for a Ruckman and then we find out that all Ruckman are losing five to eight points this year because of the new rules, then that's a value killer.
00:19:12
Jon Harmey
All right, Geordie, I'll throw two ruckmen at you then, right? Because I think we all sort of thought Cherry might have a bit of upside. So I'm hearing that these these rule changes aren't going to help him, surely, his style of game.
00:19:21
JORDAN D'SENA
Yep.
00:19:25
Jon Harmey
And then the other one is, like Maxi Gorn, so we're talking about two of the best ruckmen.
00:19:26
JORDAN D'SENA
Yes.
00:19:31
Jon Harmey
Man, they would have got no one to support him, do they? Like, Brodie Majcek's not going pinch hit him, the ruck.
00:19:35
JORDAN D'SENA
They brought in...
00:19:38
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah, unless they bring in that Max Heath who they got across, but you are right, ah Tom Campbell.
00:19:39
Jon Harmey
This injury history.
00:19:43
Holmesy
Tom Campbell?
00:19:44
Lew
Yeah, Tommy Campbell. Come on. Forgotten Man.
00:19:46
Holmesy
shit
00:19:49
JORDAN D'SENA
You are right, though. Like, the Rucks going be real interesting. And, like, there's talk. I mean, after our trade period chat, we you know, there was, like, Reedy types and um there's a few other. There was another. Vicentini brought up, Louis.
00:20:02
JORDAN D'SENA
But then I'm also thinking, do we just set and forget? If there's no one there for R2, do we just set and forget? Is it a year of set and forget, Holmes? z But then if there's value that we're going to lose, um is that the right play?
00:20:13
JORDAN D'SENA
So it's real...
00:20:14
Holmesy
Who are you going to set and forget with, Jordy? That's the question.
00:20:17
JORDAN D'SENA
Well, I'm just thinking maybe you just pay up for Tim English. If he's the guy that's going to roaming around, he's obviously at 110, but you just go, yep, R1, him and Cherry and just leave it.
00:20:20
Holmesy
Yeah?
00:20:29
JORDAN D'SENA
If there's no r two option prices pricing-wise, because you think he's going to get around the ground. Yeah, I don't know. It's very interesting.
00:20:39
Holmesy
Lucky you've got four months to decide, Jordy, and you don't have to lock anything in in right now.
00:20:45
Holmesy
Yeah, no, I, yeah.
00:20:45
Lew
Every preseason, these rocks, I swear to God, drives you nuts.
00:20:46
JORDAN D'SENA
Yep.
00:20:47
Holmesy
assistant
00:20:51
Holmesy
I think it's fascinating personally. and And to be honest, it took what until halfway through February last year, maybe even later before we jumped on Max Gorn with the with the injury to to Briggs in opening round.
00:21:01
JORDAN D'SENA
Mm-hmm.
00:21:03
Holmesy
So yeah, these these changed so much. I have been a set and forget man in the past, Jordy. But then as I said last year, I think I did eight or nine trades in the ruck department and did did very well. So open for a lot of things.
00:21:16
Holmesy
Geordie, I'm going to go to you now because you've prepared a little bit of a list for us. So the AFL draft has happened recently and we don't want to go too much into depth in terms of rookies. Typically, we like to just know who's around and and roughly what they've got scoring pedigree wise, but we do know that they won't necessarily play those roles at AFL level.
00:21:36
Holmesy
But what I'd like you to do is just give us sort of five names of just players that our listeners can put in their little black books and and maybe what you sort of what criteria you're looking at for these type of rookies at this point in in time.
00:21:49
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah, for sure. So yeah, obviously watch the draft quite a bit. And my brother loves the draft and he was on the Keeper League pod last week.
00:21:56
Jon Harmey
It's
00:21:56
JORDAN D'SENA
So a big a good listen if you're into the draft stuff.
00:21:57
Jon Harmey
would
00:22:00
JORDAN D'SENA
But yeah, I've sort of put a little list together. It's hard to sort of put a top five because I think there might be about 10 that might play. But some of these are small forwards as well. um And before we probably need to discuss their fantasy scoring.
00:22:15
JORDAN D'SENA
But the five that I've sort of come across for the top five, the number one is ah the number one pick. So that's Willem Dersmer. So He's gone to West Coast, so I think they're going to give him games if he's fit. He can play anywhere on the ground, so they can play a wing, hopefully inside. They can play him half back, half forward. I think if he's named, you just lock him in. He's going to be mid only. He obviously is the the first pick, so he will be priced at the number one draft pick, but I think...
00:22:48
JORDAN D'SENA
M7, M8, you just sort of lock it in. And i think typically we've, like a couple years ago, Horn Francis was that impact type and we just locked him in and he made quite a bit of cash. The other one is Zeke Uland coming in at two. So he's a really interesting one because he is classified as a defender mid.
00:23:09
JORDAN D'SENA
And I think he is going to play round one. We will get a look at him opening rounds. But he's like a wing type. And the interesting thing with Gold Coast is they moved off Fiorini, who was their winger.
00:23:26
JORDAN D'SENA
And I think Fiorini potentially saw the door coming of Zeke coming in as the academy. They've also lost Ainsworth and and Malcolm Roses and a few of these other of half-forward types. And I think there's a role there for him. So I think as a defender, he'll be one that we we will be looking at.
00:23:43
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, and the fact they've got such a juicy run early as well.
00:23:44
JORDAN D'SENA
Maybe he's a D6 or D7.
00:23:48
Holmesy
I mean, that's the the gift of the opening round, right, is that we're going to see him in opening round. We're going to know what type of score he's got, what role he's got. And then I think they they play the Eagles in Richmond, is it? I think, don't quote me on the order of that, but are around their buy. So they've got they've got such a good run to start. So he's definitely one to just...
00:24:07
Holmesy
at least just put away in the black book knowing that he's someone that we're likely to pick.
00:24:08
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah.
00:24:11
Holmesy
I mean, with these rookies, we do know the first-year rookies that we're really looking for job security, right? Like the scoring pedigree is one thing, but having the job security, I mean, at Gold Coast, maybe it's not as good as as a Dersmer at Eagles in terms of breaking into a better side.
00:24:26
Holmesy
But yeah, I i really like the Uland sort of play, at least at this point.
00:24:32
JORDAN D'SENA
Yep. Yep. So yeah, you are right. West Coast Richmond, then Bayer, then Melbourne, he plays.
00:24:37
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:24:38
JORDAN D'SENA
The next one is Harmy's man, Dyson Sharp. So this guy, I think he's ready to go. He's been playing in the SANFL for the last two years, so he's ready to go. And what I looked at was Essendon's round one team this year.
00:24:52
JORDAN D'SENA
They had Dylan Schill there. They had Hobbs and they had Sardis. Now Hobbs is gone. Schill's retired. I think he's better than Sardis. So I think he's going to be there round one.
00:25:06
JORDAN D'SENA
Obviously, the question is Essendon's midfield is quite busy and stacked, but he's been developing his forward craft quite a bit. So I think he can play that sort of role that Hobbs was.
00:25:18
JORDAN D'SENA
Bit of midfield time. Obviously, he's got the five on the bench now. I think he's going to be there in Essendon's team. We won't get a look at round. Well, he's not playing opening round, so we'll only be there round one.
00:25:32
JORDAN D'SENA
But I think he's one that we should lock in if he's there. What are your thoughts on that, Harmy?
00:25:38
Jon Harmey
How he get to pick 13? The guy has won everything.
00:25:40
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah.
00:25:42
Jon Harmey
He did everything. All Australian four years in a row, whatever. Like medalist, wasn't he? Like he's a ready-made midfield player.
00:25:48
JORDAN D'SENA
Yep.
00:25:51
Jon Harmey
um I'm really happy that the Bombers have won the draft and got him in.
00:25:53
Holmesy
how How did he get to 13, Harmy?
00:25:55
Jon Harmey
yeah
00:25:56
Holmesy
what what What are the bombers saying that everyone else didn't?
00:25:57
Jon Harmey
Tactics.
00:25:58
Lew
ha
00:25:59
Jon Harmey
Tactics, mate. That's what it was all about. Cat and mouse for the Bombers. No, look, yeah, high averaging player, whatever comp he plays in. So I think that ah you hopefully he's good for our fantasy sides this year.
00:26:13
Holmesy
Beautiful.
00:26:13
Lew
Lark medalists as well, historically, have been really good for us in fantasy.
00:26:18
Lew
So hopefully he can keep that trend going.
00:26:22
JORDAN D'SENA
Definitely. The other one I got is Josh Lindsay. He's a defender and he's going to West Coast.
00:26:29
Jon Harmey
Mm-hmm.
00:26:29
JORDAN D'SENA
And he sort of plays like a Salem type. Now, Salem went at about 65 in his second year.
00:26:33
Holmesy
Thank
00:26:36
JORDAN D'SENA
So the scoring will be interesting to see. But West Coast did sort of move around that defense. Like McCarthy, they drafted mid-season. Then they put him in the midfield. So if he's there playing halfback, he could, as a defender, he could be a good bench option for us.
00:26:53
JORDAN D'SENA
So he's a name and he went pretty high as well. He was in the top 20 picks. Now the fifth guy on the list, it's hard to put a number on because there's quite a few guys. So Dan Annable is ah one that's gone to Brisbane, who's got a bit of hype, but he's gone to a pretty stacked Brisbane side.
00:27:05
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:27:11
JORDAN D'SENA
But Archie has gone. So could he play like a par forward role and maybe have some midfield time? They will play opening rounds.
00:27:19
Holmesy
how does he How does he break into that side, Geordie? Like in that grand final, there was no Jared Berry and admittedly different positions, but no Noah Answorth, no Lincoln McCarthy.
00:27:22
JORDAN D'SENA
a Yeah.
00:27:29
Holmesy
Like they're just so stacked, right? But then word from the the club was that he he could have played in there in their finals campaign if he was eligible. So he clearly comes with pedigree.
00:27:29
JORDAN D'SENA
Yep.
00:27:37
JORDAN D'SENA
It's hard. Yeah, it's hard to read. And that's what I've been hearing as well. It's just, was they just saying that to hype him up or was he actually ready?
00:27:45
Jon Harmey
Yep.
00:27:45
JORDAN D'SENA
So i think we just need to keep a watch on him. We will get that opening round look. for him, but there's a few other names probably need to look at. So Cooper Duff-Titler, he's also going to West Coast.
00:27:57
JORDAN D'SENA
He's a ruck forward, I think massive.
00:27:58
Holmesy
Yeah, the ruck forward status is huge, right?
00:28:01
JORDAN D'SENA
And I think Oscar Allen's gone.
00:28:02
Jon Harmey
yep
00:28:04
JORDAN D'SENA
He's probably just going to play Oscar Allen's role, but he's a ruck forward. Do you pay up at R3? They'll probably still run a a Williams or a Flynn and he'll just chip, like chop out.
00:28:15
JORDAN D'SENA
He's going to be expensive because he won't pick four. do you just pay up? So that's probably a question there. And then, yeah, that's sort of the five and six there. And then there's a few other guys like Harry Dean at Carlton. Silvani's gone. He's probably got a role um in the back lines.
00:28:34
JORDAN D'SENA
And got those small forwards like Pickett at Melbourne, Dovidsson. They're sort of like Nick Watson types. Nick Watson went about 50 in his first year. so But we might be short on on forward rooks.
00:28:46
JORDAN D'SENA
So we might have to pick some of these guys. So that's just some names.
00:28:48
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:28:49
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah.
00:28:50
Holmesy
Yeah, love that, Jordy. I mean, yeah, typically we get caught of we get caught in the trap of picking too much of these first-year players because we do know that they might play one, two,
Building and Structuring Fantasy Teams
00:29:00
Holmesy
three games and then they get managed or rest or dropped or whatever it is. And we will have some quality, high-end talent second-year rookies this year in terms of like Sid Draper, Josh Smiley, Jagger Smith, even Gibkes who will be baseman, Alan from Eagles. So, yeah, If we can, we like the the seasoned players that have been on the list for a year or two. But yeah, absolutely good to keep these names in the back pocket. They did say that this was one of the weaker drafts though. Hey, Jordy.
00:29:29
JORDAN D'SENA
They did, um but I think that's what I've heard is because Vic Metro was didn't have as many guys drafted. It was obviously some of the interstate teams. So that's what they said this week. But from my brother, he reckons there's a couple of good fantasy guys there and good, well, potential good players in real life.
00:29:50
JORDAN D'SENA
So it'll be interesting to see what happens.
00:29:52
Lew
Hey, there were a couple of um blokes that got signed by the Eagles too, wasn't it?
00:29:52
Holmesy
Yep.
00:29:56
Lew
Devin Robertson, Finn McRae and Harry Schoenberg.
00:30:00
Jon Harmey
Hi, yeah.
00:30:00
Holmesy
You got any got any stories about Schoenberg, Louis?
00:30:01
Lew
So if they get opportunity early, ah nothing I can tell on the podcast, but if they get opportunity early, they're going to be coming in pretty cheap, I imagine.
00:30:01
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah.
00:30:11
Lew
So those sorts of guys, absolute fantasy gold if they get the opportunity.
00:30:16
Holmesy
Yeah, well, I think from memory, Dev Rob's basement, I think Finn McRae's priced at about 28, so about six points above, and then even Schoenberg's priced about 30. So, yeah, look, if they get a crack for the Eagles early, I mean, Dev Rob and Finn McRae both have forward status, so they they become very tasty options if they're there round one.
00:30:36
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:30:37
Lew
Great fantasy numbers as juniors and and even in the VFL and Sandful as well.
00:30:42
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I don't know about McCray, but... Oh, Robinson, he's got to be ahead of half the bloody players that were on the West Coast list last year, surely.
00:30:52
Holmesy
My word on the street is that Jack McRae is still sitting at F6 for you after round 24 after being subbed. Is that correct?
00:31:00
Jon Harmey
Yeah. if it's He definitely played in that last game for me. i wasn't paying any attention to it at all. So, sat on the...
00:31:08
Holmesy
Beautiful. Love love that, guys. So what I thought the last thing we'd do is, Lou, we we teased the sort of spreadsheet before and we do know that um players, are coaches that love the game, you know sometimes they like to sort of put a squad together even before the game opens and and sort of tinker with some structure and and just to see how it all starteded all sort of lines up. So what have you sort of done this year in terms of your spreadsheet and and just some initial thoughts on how it's all sort of playing out?
00:31:36
Lew
i look When I do this, I always, I mean, it's just because I'm obsessive about it, but I like to build from the ground up. So obviously with the draft having been done, you start to hear little whispers and and people making tips on you know who's going to be able to play round one. So you start to plug them in.
00:31:56
Lew
um and quite quickly you start to figure out what positions you're going to have to, you know, either scrape the bottom of the barrel for or load up in a certain type of player.
00:32:06
Lew
um It's really about just getting a feel for the sort of structure that you're going to be running with. Jordy's just mentioned all the rookies. I'm noticing that there's a lot that are going to have defender status.
00:32:17
Lew
So, you know, immediately to me, I'm going, okay, well, can I... really stack up on midfielders and forwards potentially, even go maybe, like you said, Geordie, a double set and forget ruck if that sort of allows itself.
00:32:28
JORDAN D'SENA
Don't forget.
00:32:30
Lew
So it's just about figuring out where the where the spend's going to be. And then conversely at the top end as well, I know that you know paying up for certain players when they're fully priced is a little bit frowned upon in a starting squad, especially you know in modern day fantasy. But you look at a couple of guys like a Harry Sheasel as a forward, priced at 109, but you know pretty much drops off a cliff for other options after that.
00:32:59
Lew
ah yeah know Potentially, you could make a case for Connor Rosey down back with that early fixture as well. So it's just about really balancing your... imaginary salary cap and just trying to figure out a real rough structure and what really helps with this is just paying a bit of attention to twitter it's really easy these days there's people posting all sorts of things going to training and you know journos are all over it they know that all the engagement pretty much comes from the fantasy coaches this time of year so they all get around it and you know they'll give you the hot tip on Whether or not a a player is moving well, if they're if they're fit, you know if they're impressing, they're turning heads, they might have left for a bit more opportunity like a Devin Robertson that we just mentioned before.
00:33:47
Lew
um These are the types of players that you really just want to put a circle around right now. um because, you know, sometimes they do get lost in the preseason a little bit. new New shiny objects pop up. But if you've got a little list of, like you said, a black book earlier, Holmesy, of players that you're just keeping an eye on, it just...
00:34:08
Lew
gives you that little bit of a leg up when it does get a little bit closer and sort of keeps you grounded too because there are all these things that pop up right before the season starts as I think every coach, you know, certainly panics a couple of days before before they have to lock in their first 22. So I think just being across your team nice and early just gives you that little sort of settling voice in your head that you you sort of know what you're on about.
00:34:33
Holmesy
Yeah, 100%. Things change so much in the preseason, but how many times have we heard a coach come out and and say, after round one, ah I can't believe I picked that guy. I haven't had him all preseason, haven't thought about him, and then gets put in last minute. So yeah, I love that.
00:34:49
Holmesy
um You say imaginary salary cap, Lou, but for some of the listeners that think, hey, the the game won't be open for two or three weeks, how can I go about doing this? It's not exact, but what I've sort of come up with over the years is that the salary cap will be roughly 1,740 total points. So that's what the salary cap equates to. So then from there, you can start to build your spreadsheet out. You put in the players and what they're priced at um and take that away from 1,740. So that's a good rough guide. That's what I've sort of done in in mine. And
00:35:22
Holmesy
it's not ah It's not a serious thing. um I prefer just to do it, start just to start to see structure. So um i just put in some of the value players that i'm I'm sort of looking at and then you put in some rookies and you start to see where you can spend your cash and like Louis said, where you might be a little bit light. So I'm finding just by playing around this year that the forward line um Mate, if I can get three rookies in the forward line this year, I might be all for it because that F6 currently of what it's priced at, Sean Manor, is at 88. So like the forward line drops off a lot. We have no idea how the top forwards are going to shake out. You've had Brian Myers, who's had a ah career best year. Obviously, there's no Nick Martin now.
00:36:02
Holmesy
Harry Sheasel, yes, he's very good, but what does that look like?
00:36:04
Lew
Thank you.
00:36:05
Holmesy
What does Petrarca look like at Gold Coast? What does Treloar look like this year, being another year older? What happens to Cozzy Pickett and Rankin? So it's there's so much there, and that's why i love doing that at this time of year.
00:36:17
Holmesy
Harmi, you had your hand up. You got something to say?
00:36:20
Jon Harmey
Yeah, i was just going to say, um with the way that Lou was talking about building a team, you're sort of looking for those players that you've got a lot of confidence in and what the reason is why you would be selecting them. So just a few things that I look for around this ah time of year are making a list of those people that are returning from injury or they're discounted for some sort of reason. So, you know, a bit of vanilla stuff, Jagger Smith, like,
00:36:47
Jon Harmey
Yep, everyone will probably have him. That's the sort of person we're talking about based on the pricing model that fantasy has. Anybody that's got a change in role. So, sorry, Jordy, going to give away one of your hidden gems in Sam Flanders. Available as a forward likely to go into the midfield. So that's the sort of player that you're talking about there. And anybody that's got increased opportunity. So, yeah.
00:37:12
Jon Harmey
yeah Melbourne's got a fairly depleted midfield with Oliver and Petraca going out. Warpool's left the Hawks, those those sorts of um spots opening up and and who's in line for a decent role change on the back of that.
00:37:28
Holmesy
Yep, love all that, Harmi. And I suppose the other thing is also just keeping a track of players that are, as you said, returning from injury or potentially had surgery in the off-season. So um it got reported that Zach Butters was gone in for, was it groin surgery, Geordie?
00:37:44
Holmesy
So he's facing a bit of a delayed start.
00:37:46
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah.
00:37:47
Holmesy
Came out during the week that Nick Dacos played through the final series with ah a knee injury and some bone stuff.
00:37:52
Jon Harmey
Did he really though? that just spin? Just spin for not wearing labrillo?
00:37:55
Holmesy
harmy Come on, mate. Come on. But just, yeah, just keeping ah keeping a track of that sort of stuff. I mean, the way AFL Fantasy's played these these days is that you're trying to maximise as much cash as you possibly can in those opening rounds. And if you're picking a player who's had a delay in pre-season, they're probably not starting the season off as fit as they could be, which means that you're you're kind of fighting against it. So, Love all that. Jordie, you might well just chime in here. What are you sort of looking at at this time of year in terms of just playing around with how a squad might look
00:38:27
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah, obviously all of those things as well. I think last year, i think like, as you said about the rookies, I almost sometimes, I mean, when the game opens or if I can get Louie's spreadsheet, which I haven't got yet, sometimes I'll build my team from the rookies first, actually, because I don't want to skimp on the bench as well. Like,
00:38:44
JORDAN D'SENA
You know, you go, oh I really want to get this guy m one and I want this guy. But then you get to your bench and it's like you might get, you know, the game is obviously about your cash gen early. So sometimes I reverse and I build my bench first and then I'll fill it with um in the reverse order.
00:38:59
Holmesy
Yep.
00:39:00
Lew
That's a great point.
00:39:01
Lew
I don't know about you guys, but certainly when I was quite young playing this game, I'd pick a team of key position forwards and defenders and players I liked. And i would fill out my bench completely basement.
00:39:14
Lew
The cash gen was absolutely tanked from the get-go. And you know obviously we learn from that, but it's so relevant, isn't And I think even... um juxtaposing it to like five years ago, you know, a lot of coaches, they didn't want to pay up for the number one draft pick. It was too expensive. You could find, um,
00:39:33
Lew
you know, value elsewhere. But I think now as we're, you know, where we're at, I think that these kids that are coming in, they're they're pretty much hitting the ground ready to go. You know, they're in a system from 14 years old these days.
00:39:45
Lew
So, um yeah, being able to get as many of them in your team as possible, knowing that that cash generation pretty much is what propels you to be able to compete later on in the season.
00:39:50
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:39:56
Lew
is It's just crucial.
00:39:58
Holmesy
Yep, well said, Lou. Gone are the days of saying I can't pay up for rookies on the bench. They're too expensive. You will not be successful in this game if you don't take a squad mentality and making cash from all 30 of your players. DT Lemon has paved the way there and obviously with Selby's blueprint and that's the way it has to happen
Conclusion and Future Announcements
00:40:15
Holmesy
these days. So, yep, really love that. And boys, that's 40 minutes. Fantastic work for ah for a December pod.
00:40:23
Holmesy
Can't give too much away at the moment, listeners, but keep your eyes peeled on the socials for the next couple of weeks. We have some big announcements here at the Pod Pod and how that's going to look in 2026. So keep your eyes on that. Super excited for for such a big year. And yeah, we'll be announcing all that soon. But for now, enjoy December. And yeah, we'll be back soon for some pre-season content.
00:40:47
Holmesy
Bye.
00:40:53
Jon Harmey
Yes.
00:40:56
Holmesy
Thank you.