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The Spark It Podcast EP 22: Uganda Elections 2026: Ready for Change Or More of the Same?
10 Plays1 month ago
In this episode of The Spark It Podcast, we talk about the stability Uganda has enjoyed since 1986. We unpack President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s leadership style, the benefits and trade-offs of “security-first” rule, and how constitutional changes that removed term and age limits reshaped power and public trust. We explore rural and urban voter motivations, why opposition parties struggle to scale beyond cities, and ask whether real transition requires coalitions, stronger institutions, or both. With the 2026 Uganda elections around the corner, we dig into why both the ruling party and the opposition draw big crowds—and why that still doesn’t make the result predictable. We ask if Uganda can protect peace and widen freedoms at the same time, and who will lead this shift? Tune in for a candid conversation about Uganda’s next democratic test.
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Transcript
Introduction to Uganda's Political Landscape
00:00:07
Hellen Kimaru
Welcome to the Spark It podcast, where we explore stories, experiences, and insights that spark a fire within, so you can make your next big move. In this episode, we turn our attention to Uganda, ah nation standing at a critical political crossroad.
00:00:15
Emmanuel
Thank you.
00:00:20
Hellen Kimaru
President Yoweri Museveni has ruled for nearly four decades, shaping the country's destiny since 1986. As Uganda approaches another election, questions around leadership, democracy, and the people and their people will loom
Museveni's Leadership: Promises and Democracy
00:00:36
Hellen Kimaru
large.
00:00:36
Hellen Kimaru
Has Mzeveni delivered on his promises to the people? And what does democracy mean when one leader has been in power for so long? And what will it take for Uganda to experience true political transition?
00:00:48
Hellen Kimaru
Today, we explore ugan we explore Uganda's political reality through the lenses of leadership, democracy, constitutionalism, rule of law, and the need for change. And I am joined by Patrick, my co-host at the Spark It podcast.
00:01:03
Hellen Kimaru
and our in-house political analyst, Immanuel Taban from The Concerned Podcast. Welcome, guys. How are you feeling today?
00:01:12
Patrick Abure
Very good.
00:01:12
Emmanuel
Feeling great. ah
00:01:14
Hellen Kimaru
Yeah. Immanuel, you can let us know how your day has been, and then we can get to Patrick.
Reflections and Significance of Uganda's Politics
00:01:19
Emmanuel
Yeah, my day has been great. ah Just sad to have received the news about the date of ah Kenya, former prime minister, ah which is going on right now all over social media.
00:01:27
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:01:30
Emmanuel
And yeah, but apart from that, my day is good. Yeah.
00:01:35
Hellen Kimaru
Nice, Patrick.
00:01:37
Patrick Abure
and My day has been well. um
00:01:39
Hellen Kimaru
you
00:01:40
Patrick Abure
I mean, except for when I came also across the news of the death of Raila Amolo Odinga, which is so sad and unfortunate. But I think apart from that, I'm good.
00:01:54
Patrick Abure
Yeah. Super energized for today.
00:01:55
Hellen Kimaru
Nice.
00:01:58
Hellen Kimaru
Wow, that's good. Thanks guys for making time to have this conversation. I know Uganda holds like such a big space for you guys in the context of you you've been to Uganda, you've lived in Uganda.
00:02:11
Hellen Kimaru
Uganda has been like your second home a apart from South Sudan. And today we are going to be focusing on the political landscape of Uganda, Seven East rule and what that has meant for Ugandans and even South Sudanese nationals over the last maybe four decades.
Historical Context and Leadership Analysis
00:02:32
Hellen Kimaru
So after nearly four decades in power, how would you describe President Museveni's leadership? Has it evolved with Uganda's changing needs, or has it remained rooted in all the political systems? Maybe we could get started with you, Patrick.
00:02:50
Patrick Abure
um Thank you very much. Maybe even like before responding to this question in particular, something to underscore is that before Museven came into power in 1986, Uganda as a country has been in chaos for a very long time.
00:02:58
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:03:06
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:03:15
Patrick Abure
whether it being under the leadership, the brutal regime of Idi Amin Dada, who really brutalized a lot of people um and and caused a lot of havoc in the country, ah to the leadership of many others like Opote and others.
00:03:37
Patrick Abure
So... The previous years have been years of chaos and turmoil in Uganda. And so many communities were basically facing very devastating conditions across the country.
00:03:52
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:03:56
Patrick Abure
And also da that story goes back to, you know, when Uganda was under the colonial regime of the British.
00:04:04
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:04:06
Patrick Abure
And so like these were all the conditions that were already in existence when Museven came in 1986.
00:04:17
Patrick Abure
And so I think he came promising stability of the country. um And I think since he he took over office, one could say that he has, maybe that is one of his biggest success, he has delivered on that promise at least for for the most part that he's been in power. I think the country...
00:04:43
Patrick Abure
has been relatively stable and in peace for all these years. um But also, when it comes now to your question in particular, I think one would say that Museveni's leadership has been one that is really mixed when you look and assess his leadership style.
Security and Political Freedom Under Museveni
00:05:08
Patrick Abure
Because you can see that ah with this promise of you know delivering peace and stability for the country after all this chaos that the country has been through, it has evolved over time.
00:05:24
Patrick Abure
to focus more on security first politics. And even when it comes to budgeting, the focus became more um on security as like a priority
00:05:33
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:05:38
Patrick Abure
um along other areas. But I think security has taken like such an important priority when it comes to his leadership and stuff like that.
00:05:49
Patrick Abure
And I would think that that is probably one of the the biggest ah biggest thing when it comes to his leadership style is a mix of security, but also very centralized systems.
00:06:01
Hellen Kimaru
honey
00:06:02
Patrick Abure
Maybe control of so many staff in the country and how they happen. um But I think apart from that, I would say it's been so much focused on basically keeping the country stable over the years.
00:06:17
Patrick Abure
But I would also even say that his he's a style of leadership is either one that he has mimicked from other leaders within the region or maybe Africa or that other leaders within the region or Africa have mimicked.
00:06:37
Patrick Abure
ah when When you look at the focus on security as a priority, I think you'll even notice that ah across so many African countries, security is almost one of those things that when it comes to the national budget processes,
00:06:52
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:06:52
Patrick Abure
they invest in heavily almost every year and consistently.
00:06:57
Patrick Abure
And so, um but also there are some people, I think over the years that have said that his leadership style have evolved to include basically I would say a centralization of power within the presidency or maybe security services ah focused more on securing the president and maybe you're know keeping the president in power for all of these years.
00:07:29
Patrick Abure
But I think that is debatable. Because again, elections happen, as we'll discuss maybe more later. And it's definitely one of those things that is debatable. But I think his leadership has definitely been a mix of security first politics and a focus more on stability of the country.
00:07:49
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting take and reno
00:07:53
Emmanuel
go i I agree with most of what Patrick said, that over the years, Museveni's leadership has been built mostly on stabilizing the country.
00:07:58
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:08:05
Emmanuel
And now when we look at the region right now, and you'd see that from 1986, the only country in the eastern parts of Africa that perhaps has been having a kind of stable peace is Uganda.
00:08:12
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:08:22
Emmanuel
When we look at Kenya, as too many people refer to it as a democratic state compared to so many East African countries. But in 2007, Kenya was almost getting into a state of going into an abuse after the post-election violence that happened been in 2007. It took the country, I mean, it costed the country so many people lost lives.
00:08:42
Emmanuel
South Sudan has experienced several civil wars.
00:08:43
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:08:47
Emmanuel
Rwanda in 1994 had the genocide. ah Somalia has never been stable. Congo in the eastern part is never stable. Sudan is not stable. Even Burundi and... you I mean, you could easily see that it is Uganda in the eastern parts of Africa that has quite some kind of stability.
00:09:05
Emmanuel
And um that clearly tells us, and and and that becomes one of his biggest ah contributions, not only in Uganda, but the entire region. and And that meant Uganda to be one of the safest places in the eastern region that most of other people from those countries that have been experiencing civil war run to, in I mean, for safety.
00:09:26
Emmanuel
You've seen it, there's so many Somali somali people in Uganda, there's South Sudanese, there are Sudanese, ah Congolese that are being um hosted by Uganda simply because Uganda has been stable. And that clearly tells us the level of stability that Uganda has attained over the years. so ah but But also, um there are so many people who believe that.
00:09:49
Emmanuel
Of course, one of the prerequisites for a country to... um to ah to i mean get to another level is security. But so so many Ugandans, as Patrick has said, that his leadership has been received with so many mixed feelings.
00:10:03
Emmanuel
There are so other many there are so many other Ugandans who believe that.
00:10:05
Hellen Kimaru
Thank you.
00:10:07
Emmanuel
um You know, ah Whereas we praise him for bringing the stability, but we feel that Uganda deserves more than just security, right?
00:10:18
Emmanuel
We need other things, probably go people asking questions, even when the country has peace. But what is that more important than peace? Are people given the rights to...
00:10:31
Emmanuel
to maybe call out the government. Do we have some of these democratic principles respected? Do we give people the freedom of speech, you would say whatever they want to say about the government or the policies that are being done by the government?
00:10:44
Emmanuel
Do we have ah elections conducted in a most free and fair manner? So when we look at all these and we compare with the kind of stability that President Museveni has delivered, but I think that leaves people with so many mixed feelings.
00:10:58
Emmanuel
So many people might praise him for the stability he created, but others feel that he's not doing so much in
00:10:59
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:11:08
Emmanuel
ah making the country, I mean, like, giving people the freedom to speak up their minds. ah We have seen in the last previous elections that almost the opposition is has been, I mean, set up most of the times, you know, when the country is heading towards an election, and ah members of the opposition have been targeted, brutalized, and some of them jailed.
00:11:30
Emmanuel
Like from the previous election, there are people who are still in jail just because they were supporting the opposition. They've been in jail like for the last four years or so.
00:11:37
Hellen Kimaru
you
00:11:39
Emmanuel
so His leadership has been received with so many mixed feelings. ah Others look at him as being a leader who is able to deliver stability in the region, but others look at him as a dictator. And just like Patrick has said, that he seems to have centralized power but within the presidency.
00:11:59
Emmanuel
And you could easily see that he is the president of the country. His son is the CDF, the chief of defense forces, in charge of all the the Air Force, the Army, and probably the Navy and all this.
00:12:15
Emmanuel
The wife is a minister of education, so you could you could see that ah ah the kind of mixed feelings people have towards his leadership. But
Uganda's Affordability and Democratic Reality
00:12:25
Emmanuel
only all in all, would say that he has really, really ah delivered so much.
00:12:25
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:12:30
Emmanuel
ah I would also say that Uganda is one of the countries in East in east Africa that is affordable to live in right now. So that speaks so much of about the economy as well. So the country might not be where the citizens expect to be, but I think at the moment we need really to credit Museven for doing so.
00:12:50
Emmanuel
Yeah.
00:12:51
Hellen Kimaru
I think you guys have given like a good background to where Uganda was, where it is, and potentially where it could be in the future. And the one thing I picked from what the both of you talked about was sort of stability that Uganda has experienced in the long term.
00:13:10
Hellen Kimaru
But my question remains, for example, yeah, Museveni has been in power from 1986. How k ah can Ugandans prove that this stability that they have experienced for that long time would continue in his absence, for example?
00:13:28
Hellen Kimaru
is it Does his leadership to some extent feel a bit maybe dictatorial or is it like democratic? And now that even takes us to like the next question. do you believe that Uganda is a true democracy or state where democratic process exists just in name?
00:13:49
Hellen Kimaru
Patrick?
00:13:53
Patrick Abure
ah i i I think I would say... um
00:13:57
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:13:59
Patrick Abure
I mean, based on the kind of elections that we've seen happening in the country on a schedule and regularly, I think one would say Uganda is a democracy and has been ah for some time now.
00:14:06
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:14:12
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:14:17
Patrick Abure
ah Maybe when it comes to, say, the playing field for different contenders that might be running for an office maybe within the country.
00:14:30
Patrick Abure
That is something debatable, given that I think over the years we've seen cases of political opposition being repressed and maybe arrested and jailed and stuff like that.
00:14:45
Patrick Abure
But I think um apart from that, I think Uganda is democratic because, again, Things like, for example, ah democracy, I feel like it's very contextual ah because how democracy might look and work in Kenya might be different in how it does in maybe Uganda or maybe Rwanda or so forth.
00:15:01
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:15:10
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:15:11
Patrick Abure
But I think the the key point to note is that ah about democracy, we are talking about the people having the power to decide who governs them.
00:15:24
Patrick Abure
People having power to decide how they are governed and stuff like that.
00:15:28
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:15:30
Patrick Abure
And so if if you look at it from that perspective, which is what democracy is primarily about, I think one would say that Uganda is democratic and has been for some time.
00:15:42
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:15:44
Patrick Abure
ah One might disagree with some of the things that have been happening and continue to happen that might not appear democratic. such as, for example, maybe the shrinking civil and political space, whether it being for civil society or other political actors and stuff like that.
00:16:00
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting. And you, Imano?
00:16:05
Patrick Abure
But I think generally we can all agree that Ugandans have been over the years had the the power to be able to select who ah leads them as a country or to be a part of the process of deciding how they are governed as a country.
00:16:26
Hellen Kimaru
interesting and youman
00:16:29
Emmanuel
yeah Yeah, I think um oh the the question of whether Uganda is a democracy depends on how one understands what democracy means.
00:16:38
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:16:44
Emmanuel
I mean, there is no any single country in the world that claims it observes all the principles of democracy, right? Even the United States of America that so many people praises as the mother of democracy,
00:16:58
Emmanuel
No country in the world absorbs all principles of democracy. And ah some of the major principles of democracy that stands out, it's a periodic ah elections that happen, just like Patrick has said.
00:17:11
Emmanuel
So if we do have elections coming after every five or four years,
00:17:11
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:17:16
Emmanuel
And if we have a space where other adult political parties are allowed to operate, if we have a ah that space where people at some point are given the chance, they participate in elections and choosing the people they want to be their representatives, then we can say we do have a democracy in such a country.
00:17:35
Emmanuel
I mean, we can so we can let let's we can even look at the United States of America and their previous elections. There are so many claims about rigging that came out. People talked about rigging, and yet this is a country that many of other countries look up to when they're talking about democracy.
00:17:45
Hellen Kimaru
Thank you.
00:17:51
Emmanuel
And we see in the United States right now that there is weaponization of the justice system.
Comparative Democracy: Uganda vs. Other Nations
00:17:58
Emmanuel
i mean, there are so many things that are happening in those countries that so many people look up to as ah as the beacons of democracy that are as well happening. So I think...
00:18:09
Emmanuel
it would be ah better for us to say that Uganda is not maybe a democrat democratic state. It would be double standard when we say ah just because maybe there is ah a kind of ah certain principles that are not upheld in Uganda, and yet they are not also being absorbed in other countries, and then we say Uganda is not a democracy.
00:18:16
Hellen Kimaru
through.
00:18:30
Emmanuel
I do believe that Uganda... It's a democracy because ah for the last, two well but I mean, two decades, we had like almost four elections held. So, I mean, this is a ah good one.
00:18:44
Emmanuel
In other countries, we don't get to see this. they know I mean, a leader runs for decades. I mean, He rules for decades, but he acquired that mandate through elections. And even right now, Kimaru, we are getting into campaign moves in the country.
00:19:03
Emmanuel
ah campaign says a campaign moves in the country And you could see just, I think, the last few days, Museven had a campaign rally um where he visited the northern part of the country.
00:19:07
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:19:15
Emmanuel
And you could easily see the crud that he was able to pull out. And you can see that, ah I mean, this is an organic crud, right? I mean, it's the people have the feeling that they still trust such a leader.
00:19:27
Emmanuel
And if these people still have a trust in this leader and they are saying that we are going to vote, this means that we do have... some of the democratic principles being observed in Uganda, and it wouldn't be a good idea to just dismiss that and say Uganda is ah maybe a dictatorial state simply because Museveni has been in power maybe for the last four decades.
00:19:42
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:19:49
Emmanuel
Yes, he is a president and he has been the president for the last maybe three or four decades, but it is Ugandan who decided that the he has to be their president for the last four decades. So Uganda, I feel, is a democracy.
00:20:07
Emmanuel
but
00:20:08
Hellen Kimaru
yeah I hear what you guys have said, but from an outsider point of view, or even a more privileged point of view as i as i can whos experience a experienced a different type of democracy.
00:20:09
Patrick Abure
Uh,
00:20:21
Hellen Kimaru
um I was telling Emmanuel, and I did talk to Patrick the other time when I went to Koboko for us to record the Spark It podcast episode. I met with this professor on the bus, and he realized I was Kenyan, and he was like, oh, you guys are very lucky. because you have a particular democracy that we actually envy as Ugandans, and you have a lot of freedom of ah speech, you can express yourselves, you can protest and stuff like that.
00:20:48
Hellen Kimaru
Then he went on to tell me, you know, Ugandans are cowards. That's what he said. He said that for them, under the rule of Seveni, they've not been able to sort of express themselves in such a way
00:20:57
Emmanuel
Thank you.
00:21:01
Hellen Kimaru
And we talked about Ugandans being able to experience some level of democracy. But we can clearly see, as an outsider, I can clearly see, or I can say maybe from my own point of view, that there could be things that Ugandans are not able to experience because of maybe Museveni or the laws in Uganda and the ah the constitutional law changes that keep happening so in your own opinion do you think like ugandans revere mseveni in such a way or do you think that them voting mseveni every election does that reflect genuine support fear of instability or limited political alternatives we could start with you immanuel what do you think
00:21:50
Emmanuel
um i I believe that, you know, you know well So many Ugandans, they are used to the political stability that the country has.
00:22:01
Emmanuel
And they've also got experience of what instability means, especially from ah ah seeing the neighboring countries oh which have been experiencing lots of civil war, especially like South Sudan.
00:22:02
Hellen Kimaru
Okay.
00:22:12
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:22:17
Emmanuel
They know the impact of a country not having that political instability.
00:22:17
Hellen Kimaru
okay
00:22:22
Emmanuel
And I think a section of Ugandans who disagree with Museven, most of them are really note um oh disagreeing with him maybe because ah or they hate him because maybe he is a dictator or what but I think most of them just feel that Museven has stayed in power for quite long I think that is the frustration they just feel he has overstayed in power and they need change but a section of Ugandans they still do want him and the question of whether their support for Museven is ginning or not I think um
00:22:54
Hellen Kimaru
Hello.
00:22:57
Emmanuel
ah So many people, they are supporting him genuinely because they feel they all they need to have is just to have that political um stability. And also, there are people who ah maybe support Museveni because of how the opposition has been ah portraying itself, maybe.
00:23:20
Emmanuel
You know, there is a very popular observation knew from the African continent about the ah but leaders who were so much allied to the West.
00:23:20
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:23:31
Emmanuel
And when we look at the opposition right now, ah the opposition can... We've seen it through Bobo Wain right now. And so many people regard Bobo Wain to be as an imposter of the West.
00:23:44
Emmanuel
I mean, they look at him as and a Western, ah someone who is being just imposed on Uganda by ah the Western countries.
Perceptions of Museveni and Opposition Dynamics
00:23:52
Emmanuel
and Museveni has built his leadership on the...
00:23:52
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:23:56
Emmanuel
on on on the African morals and African cultures. I mean, he is this African leader who stands so much with all the ideals of Africans and the cultures and all these morals.
00:24:09
Emmanuel
And, you know, when they look at these two people, ah someone who ah they look at him as being imposed by the West and someone who ideally stands with the beliefs of Africans and they they they they would say, like, okay, maybe you would say that Museveni is it's not the the i mean it's not so perfect, but we are looking at someone that we don't know what is going to bring in power when he becomes a president.
00:24:32
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:24:38
Emmanuel
We don't know what he's going to deliver. So, I mean, and they might be thinking that it's it's it's better to have the devil you know than the angel you don't know, right?
00:24:49
Emmanuel
And therefore, their support for Museveni is uh can can actually be uh gotten from the fear of what bob wine or what the opposition will bring in su today take over power so majority of them support museveni not because he is perfect not because maybe he is the good leader but because they fear that maybe so they have a new leader then
00:25:03
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:25:15
Emmanuel
they're not going to have a Ugandan that they have been enjoying for all these decades. So I think that is the fear that is in the hearts of so many Ugandans right now who are pro Museveni, who supports Museveni.
00:25:27
Emmanuel
Their support might not be necessarily that Museveni is the best leader, is someone who can deliver, but... They have the trust in him. For the last years, they have him as the president and he has delivered the stability in the country.
00:25:40
Emmanuel
And they fear that when Bobo comes in or when the opposition comes in, so they might take the country in a different way.
00:25:45
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:25:49
Emmanuel
Right.
00:25:51
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting. Patrick, is it fear or, you know, limited political alternatives or what is it? Why do you think Ugandans love voting for Museveni and might even vote for him?
00:26:06
Patrick Abure
um I would start by saying Ugandans are not cowards. Ugandans are the most you kind people I have come across.
00:26:19
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:26:19
Patrick Abure
And they are definitely the most proactive people that I have come across who are very brave, very brave to confront the issues in their communities, very brave to participate in politics.
00:26:35
Patrick Abure
Ugandans are not cowards in any way.
00:26:36
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:26:37
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:26:37
Patrick Abure
I think Ugandans are really, really brave people.
00:26:41
Patrick Abure
When you look at what Uganda has faced as a country over the years to where it is now, it's unthinkable for someone to say Ugandans are cowards because it only takes brave people to get to the stage of where Uganda is right now.
00:26:59
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:27:02
Patrick Abure
And so I would you think that Because Kenyans behave a certain way to certain issues doesn't necessarily mean everyone else should behave that way.
00:27:16
Patrick Abure
Because Kenya is Kenya. Uganda is Uganda. These are two different countries, two different communities, very different contexts.
00:27:24
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:27:25
Patrick Abure
And definitely these people socially behave differently and certainly politically and even economically.
00:27:31
Hellen Kimaru
Yeah. Mm-hmm.
00:27:33
Patrick Abure
They behave differently.
00:27:33
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:27:35
Patrick Abure
So I wouldn't agree with the assessment that Ugandans are cowards, if anything.
00:27:42
Hellen Kimaru
Oh, and just to clarify, I didn't say it was a Ugandan.
00:27:45
Emmanuel
Right.
00:27:48
Hellen Kimaru
Yeah. Mm-hmm.
00:27:49
Patrick Abure
No, i I think that because the comparison is being made in relation to Kenyans, right?
00:27:54
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yes, yes.
00:27:57
Hellen Kimaru
Makes sense. Mm-hmm.
00:27:57
Emmanuel
right
00:27:58
Patrick Abure
Yeah, but the point is that it doesn't matter, right?
00:28:02
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:28:02
Patrick Abure
Because Ugandans are always going to approach their own issues in a way that is most unique to their own context.
00:28:11
Hellen Kimaru
true
00:28:12
Patrick Abure
yeah And the same can be said about Kenyans. Kenyans are always going to approach political, social, and economic issues from point that is most important.
00:28:28
Patrick Abure
convenient or maybe unique or most suitable to their own context, which is why i would say that I totally this disagree with the assessment that Ugandans are cowards just because maybe they are not going around banning government buildings or stuff like that.
00:28:32
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:28:41
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:28:45
Emmanuel
Bye.
00:28:46
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:28:47
Patrick Abure
I think that is an extreme comparison to make. But now,
00:28:53
Hellen Kimaru
<unk>
00:28:53
Patrick Abure
um coming to your question, I would do think that are Ugandans voting Museveni because they love him or are they voting for Museveni out of fear?
00:29:11
Patrick Abure
I think, first of all, something I need to make clear is this. There is no one answer to that question.
00:29:20
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:29:21
Patrick Abure
And certainly that answer is not with us who are currently sitting here.
00:29:27
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:29:27
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:29:28
Patrick Abure
If there is anyone that has the answer to this question, are the Ugandans that vote every election cycle?
00:29:38
Patrick Abure
Are the Ugandans that every election cycle are brutalized? At the Ugandans, every election cycle are arrested.
00:29:50
Patrick Abure
ah do you canda At every ah election cycle show up from morning to evening to vote.
00:30:01
Patrick Abure
the The Ugandans that, you know, ah come to those meetings and shape the conversation or decision-making or the agenda for the government.
00:30:11
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:30:12
Patrick Abure
I think those are the people... who have the right answer to this question. Definitely not us. But one would to say from ah an outsider perspective and say that Ugandans definitely do have reasons to either vote myself and that either close to what we have read Or not at all.
00:30:40
Patrick Abure
Like, for example, because for me, I've had the opportunity, just like Emma, of living in Uganda for a very long time. And during that time, I've had at least the opportunity to be able to speak to Ugandans about politics.
00:31:00
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:31:00
Patrick Abure
Younger Ugandans, older Ugandans, Ugandans in rural settings, and then Ugandans in
00:31:09
Patrick Abure
ahan settings But I think from my conversations with some Ugandans about you know politics and Museveni and the opposition leaders, something I have noticed is that some um of the people really vote for Museveni Genuinely, because they love Museveni or appreciate today the stability that he has brought to the country over the years.
00:31:44
Patrick Abure
and And definitely...
00:31:45
Emmanuel
and
00:31:47
Patrick Abure
One thing I've noticed is that the reasons vary a lot for voting Museven as you talk to either older people or younger people or those who are in rural or urban settings.
00:31:52
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:32:01
Patrick Abure
ah For example, Koboko is a ah relatively, i would say, small town. I don't know. It wouldn't go into rural. It wouldn't go, but it's relatively small.
00:32:14
Patrick Abure
And I think... My conversation with the people in Koboko shows that, especially the older people, some of them say the reason they vote for Museveni is because the violence and displacement and loss of property that they have experienced
00:32:17
Emmanuel
My position is people in global social media.
00:32:27
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:32:44
Patrick Abure
during the time of the civil wars, is something that they never want to see again. And for them, they believe the person who has demonetrated the ability to deliver peace and the stability for the country is Miseven.
00:33:01
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:33:01
Patrick Abure
And so some of them vote him for that reason, even when they hate him as a person.
00:33:08
Patrick Abure
They still strongly believe him and his government are capable of delivering peace because they have proved that over the years. Meanwhile, I think for for young people, it's mixed.
00:33:23
Patrick Abure
Some have similar reasons, some not. um
00:33:25
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:33:26
Patrick Abure
When you talk to those in urban centers and rural areas, definitely they have different reasons as to why. But I think one other reason that really kept surfacing is also how the opposition,
00:33:38
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:33:42
Patrick Abure
in Uganda, appears fragmented and weak to some extent.
00:33:48
Hellen Kimaru
you
00:33:50
Patrick Abure
You see, like, when when you actually go on the ground in Uganda, and not just Kampala, to To dip the villages, you will notice that NRM, which is the ruling party, is deeply rooted even in the most remotest villages.
00:34:13
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:34:13
Patrick Abure
They have structures there.
00:34:17
Patrick Abure
Now, when you compare that to other parties, you will see the gap because some of these parties, they are just in urban centers and that is it.
00:34:28
Patrick Abure
And in some elections, they even don't have people that run for political offices in certain areas. So I think when you try to look at it from that structural perspective of how parties are organized and rooted within communities, you will see the reason why maybe NRM has a huge advantage and favor, maybe in terms of being able to mobilize voters or being able to reach voters more effectively.
00:34:56
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:35:00
Patrick Abure
with their message as compared to maybe opposition leaders who only maybe what?
00:35:00
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:35:05
Patrick Abure
Come once for a rally and that is it. They are gone. But I think having structures rooted in the community allows for the mobilization and messaging to be ongoing even after, for example, a rally.
00:35:24
Patrick Abure
So I guess like you know so these are some of the advantages that I guess have allowed Uganda and in particular President Museveni and his ruling party to to enjoy um popularity in the country and and and and and winning elections and stuff like that.
00:35:36
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:35:46
Patrick Abure
But of course, these are very highly debatable issues.
00:35:50
Hellen Kimaru
Wow. I think from what I've gathered, looks like the opposition does not have a very great strategy and also good political muscle in comparison to the NRM party.
00:36:06
Hellen Kimaru
And there's a lot of stuff. Okay.
00:36:09
Hellen Kimaru
good Go ahead.
00:36:09
Patrick Abure
And and maybe maybe something I would add, by the way, is, I don't know if you've noticed this, but actually, Uganda has probably more parties, political parties in East Africa than any other country, I think.
00:36:22
Hellen Kimaru
her
00:36:25
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting.
00:36:26
Patrick Abure
Probably even more than Kenya. And these parties, every election cycle are active.
00:36:28
Hellen Kimaru
Oh, wow. Mm-hmm.
00:36:33
Patrick Abure
And something that don't get mentioned often is,
00:36:34
Hellen Kimaru
Oh
00:36:37
Patrick Abure
is these very political parties receive funding from government, in including NRM and m andy the the the opposition party of Bobby Wine.
Political Parties and Opposition Challenges
00:36:50
Patrick Abure
They all receive funding from government to conduct their activities.
00:36:50
Hellen Kimaru
wow.
00:36:52
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:36:55
Patrick Abure
But this this is rarely mentioned or talked about.
00:36:58
Hellen Kimaru
ah wow
00:37:00
Patrick Abure
These parties just enjoy that comfortable bit of the government's they keep that one aside and they just keep, you know, amplifying whatever little things that maybe might be going wrong or stuff like that.
00:37:15
Hellen Kimaru
Yeah. I think there's, if I'm not wrong, I've heard Imane, like, it could be on his podcast, he's mentioned that for the opposition of Uganda to succeed, they would probably have to consolidate, come together,
00:37:30
Hellen Kimaru
the way and like um we conduct elections in Kenya. Like ah in the last election year, whatever, 2022, like a lot of parties came together to form something like a coalition, Azimio, UDA, Kenya Kwanzaa, and stuff like that.
00:37:44
Hellen Kimaru
Is that something you said in your podcast, Emmanuel?
00:37:48
Emmanuel
Yeah, I did say that. And just like Patrick has said, I think over the years, the National Resistance Movement has really, really built very, very strong structures that are deeply rooted in the grassroots.
00:37:52
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:37:59
Patrick Abure
Thank
00:38:01
Emmanuel
And I think that is one big, biggest asset that Museveni has in his favor.
00:38:02
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:38:05
Emmanuel
And he'll always continue to have. I mean, more most of the political parties that exist in Uganda are ones that have just emerged recently. And they really don't have these strong structures like NRA.
00:38:17
Emmanuel
And a way where I feel the opposition can counter that challenge is by coming together.
00:38:18
Hellen Kimaru
you
00:38:23
Emmanuel
That would be the best thing that they would do. Because just like Patrick said, um at some point I lived you know you ah in the in in Uganda, in one of the most remotest areas.
00:38:34
Emmanuel
And in that area, during the 2021 elections,
00:38:38
Emmanuel
alexs I mean, you could easily see that the it is only the NRM that is known to do to the people.
00:38:40
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:38:46
Emmanuel
And this is because of the many, many years that the NRM has been in power. And because of that, I think it has really, really taken down the structures up to the very lowest level. and The opposition could only do that when they come together, bring their minds together, and they become as well popular. But I think right now the opposition is so much fragmented.
00:39:10
Emmanuel
It's so much divided. There are those who believe that they can do things by their own and
00:39:12
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:39:17
Emmanuel
And and i ah you could you can see that it's impossible right now. There's no way that the opposition, a single political party, can go into an election with Museveni being a flag bearer for the NRM and they can win Museveni easily.
00:39:33
Emmanuel
No, it's not going to happen. and And just like I gave a comparison in my other video with Kenya, ah You see that in Kenya, what these parties do is that when the country is getting towards an election, political parties get into political coalitions. They look at their interests. What do we want as a political party? What is our interest?
00:39:54
Emmanuel
And you find that political parties that have um similar interests, they gang together, they group together and form political coalitions. and they go into an election in that manner.
00:40:06
Emmanuel
I think that is what I feel the opposition needs to do in case they want to defeat Museveni. But the the the challenge here is also that even the other opposition political parties that are already in bed with Museveni, that are already working in a working relationship with Museveni, and that even posed a very big challenge again for ah those ones who are looking to take over about power from Museveni.
00:40:31
Emmanuel
For instance, we have the DP, the Democratic Party, that has been existence for quite long.
00:40:31
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:40:38
Emmanuel
And DP had an influence in the more in in the northern parts of Uganda. But of recent, the DP is... in a very, very good working relationship with President Museven. They even had one of their the party leaders appointed as a minister of justice, that is Chairman Mao.
00:40:56
Emmanuel
And also ah the FDC, that before the NUP came into existence, used to be one of the most popular opposition political parties in the country.
00:41:07
Emmanuel
again is normal. The party is divided. It has split into two. Now we have the PFF that is being led by a section of the the former FDC members and we have the FDC mainstream which is also in, seems to be in support of Museveni taking over presidency.
00:41:25
Emmanuel
So I mean these are all challenges that the opposition is facing and I feel the only thing they need to do is they need to come together and agree and front one solid political candidate that can be supported by all political parties that call themselves the opposition.
00:41:32
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:41:45
Emmanuel
And I think in that way they can match up with Museveni. But I don't see a possibility of the opposition winning over Museveni. And when we have more than seven candidates on the ballot and they say they want to take out, first of all, they are going to divide the votes.
00:42:01
Emmanuel
Museveni always has his support base.
00:42:03
Hellen Kimaru
Yeah.
00:42:04
Emmanuel
Museveni has his base where no matter what, these people are going to vote for him. He has his solid base. And in an instance where he sees so many people wanting to become presidents, aspiring to be president, they are going to only divide votes for the opposition.
00:42:22
Emmanuel
That's the thing. It's not going to affect Museveni so much, but it's going to affect the opposition because Museveni always has his support base.
00:42:27
Hellen Kimaru
yeah
00:42:30
Emmanuel
He has his people that he's working with them in government. that in all can deliver for him the votes. And that has been done in the previous elections. And when we see opposition political parties fronting different political, I mean, candidates, it's going to work in favour of Museveni.
00:42:48
Emmanuel
It's definitely going to work in Museveni. As I said, the best way could be the opposition coming together, but I feel it's too late.
00:42:50
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:42:55
Emmanuel
Most of the opposition and political parties have already a fronted their candidates. The FDC has fronted their candidates.
00:43:00
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:43:01
Emmanuel
um The NUP has fronted their candidates. the Ant-Kenya, which I mean, sorry, I don't know why I'm talking my thinking so much about Kenya, but they're called the Alliance for National Transformation that is led by the former ah general Mugisa Muntu, very prominent person of which they would have made a very prominent change if they come and work together with Bobo Wine.
00:43:11
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:43:22
Emmanuel
They are going into this election. There's two different presidential candidates, Boboine for NUP and Mugisa Muntu for ANT, which is the alliance for national transformation. I think that is definitely going to work in favour of Museveni. As long as we're going to have the different presidential candidates fronted by different opposition political parties, Museveni is just going to be celebrating. And I feel that it's it's going to be working in his favour so much.
00:43:50
Emmanuel
Yeah.
00:43:52
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting. Yeah, I think if just maybe echoing what you've said, if they could use that that strategy, because I remember 2002, whatever worked in Kenya for Kenyans to get rid of the MOI era was for them to front one candidate and it was Moiki Bakke at that point and everybody rallied around Moiki Bakke and that was the only way were able to get that particular change because also so MOI had been in power for 24 years so I guess from what you guys are saying
00:44:23
Hellen Kimaru
there's definitely no shortcut for
Strategies for Opposition Unity and Leadership Impact
00:44:25
Hellen Kimaru
Ugandans. If they really wanted the change in terms of presidency, they have to rally probably behind maybe one opposition candidate, and then that might happen.
00:44:35
Hellen Kimaru
um And then maybe just to trace back from what we've talked about, in an earlier episode we were shooting today with Emmanuel, you are not here, Patrick, were talking about Raila and his legacy,
00:44:47
Hellen Kimaru
and the gaps he's left in the context of even opposition leadership and what he represented in the Kenyan politics, which could also be similar to what Museveni stands for in the context of Uganda.
00:45:01
Hellen Kimaru
He's been in power from 1986. That's a very long time. And ah with the passing of Raila, there seems to be sort of like a vacuum. ah If we continue with sort of maybe now for Ugandans, the fact that they have had Museveni for the longest, if something happened to Museveni or maybe he becomes incapacitated, don't you think that the stability that Ugandans have enjoyed for the longest would probably be shaken? Or what would happen to Uganda if something like this happened to them?
00:45:38
Hellen Kimaru
would there be a vacuum or do you think that Mseveni has also done a better job of probably grooming somebody, even if not in the opposition? Patrick.
00:45:52
Patrick Abure
Well, I think I would say that um when when you look at the political sphere of Uganda, you will notice that Uganda has a lot of very strong and prominent politicians who are capable of leading the country.
00:46:00
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:46:15
Patrick Abure
So many of them. whether it being Nobat Mao, whether it being Mugisha Montu, whether it being Kiza, Besije, and so many others, Uganda has a lot of competent and capable people.
00:46:25
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:46:31
Patrick Abure
that are capable of leading the country. And I think that in an event that for some reason the position of the president has fallen vacant, I think the constitution of Uganda provides a clear...
00:46:43
Hellen Kimaru
hey
00:46:50
Patrick Abure
clear procedures on how such a position can be filled. And so I think most likely ah that is what will be followed, the constitution.
00:47:00
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:47:01
Patrick Abure
Yeah. And d depending on how that happens, Hopefully that doesn't happen. We don't get to a situation like that. But, do you know, these are these are things that you can't avoid.
00:47:13
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:47:13
Patrick Abure
But I think in case it happens, I am very confident that Ugandans will follow their constitution.
00:47:22
Patrick Abure
and get the most capable person to lead the country, whether it being the the vice president of Uganda stepping up to become the president or the prime minister.
00:47:32
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:47:34
Patrick Abure
So many alternatives are possible that can be implemented. So it's up to Ugandans to decide. But I think it's undeniable that the vacuum that Museveni will leave will be huge.
00:47:54
Patrick Abure
Because I think he he has been, in my opinion, a generational leader. ah He's been in power for a very long time. So most people who are 30 or over 30, most of these people grew up knowing one leader, and that is President Mosef.
00:48:14
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:48:15
Hellen Kimaru
Sure.
00:48:15
Patrick Abure
So he's a very generational leader that has been an inspiration to so many and has inspired so many people to get into politics, including Obi-Wan, who was, i think, at that time when he came into office, when President came into office as if Obi-Wan was eight years or or ten years.
00:48:24
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:48:30
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:48:33
Emmanuel
I think seven years ago.
00:48:33
Hellen Kimaru
Oh, wow.
00:48:35
Patrick Abure
Seven years i around there. Yeah. So literally all the success and everything that Bobi Wine has achieved can be credited to the efforts of Museveni in stabilizing the country.
00:48:37
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting. Uh-huh. Uh-huh.
00:48:43
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:48:54
Patrick Abure
And I think there's so many capable people that have grown and really achieved so much um skills and competencies to be able to lead the country, whether it being those directly mentored by him or those indirectly inspired by his efforts, like Bobby White.
00:49:16
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting. I like the way you've mentioned the Ugandan constitution. Maybe instead of Emmanuel answering the same question, he could probably tell us what he thinks about the amendments that have been done to the constitution a couple of times to remove presidential term limits, age limits.
00:49:36
Hellen Kimaru
What impact has that had on public trust in constitutionalism and democracy in Uganda?
00:49:42
Emmanuel
um
00:49:45
Emmanuel
um ah Yeah, I'd just like to, to i don't know what maybe Pariga said before I answer your question. um Like when when we received the news about the date of ah the former prime minister of Kenya and some people were writing on social media that had it been that Raila was elected in the 2022 election as the president of Kenya,
00:49:53
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:50:01
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:50:08
Emmanuel
And with his death today, we would be having Mata Karua sworn in as the president with his death. I mean, she should have taken over from Raila because of the death. And that tells us clearly. And that is because the constitution of Kenya says so.
00:50:25
Emmanuel
So just like Patrika said, if ah anything happens in Uganda, God forbid, ah maybe with Museveni, then we would be following the same, maybe...
00:50:26
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:50:35
Emmanuel
ah What the constitution says about the replacing a leader at at such a ah moment. But I think Uganda, there's no shortage of leaders who are capable of leading the country. We have so many people within the NRM party and even outside the NRM in opposition and who are now out of politics, are not even in in politics. They are very capable.
00:50:58
Emmanuel
but in know Regarding the the the changes but in the constitution several times by by the Ugandan maybe president, so many people, i to me, I think there is no clear proof to me that ah it was Museveni who really did that because most of the time, you know, when when the the the role of legislatures in in the parliament is that sometimes people have their the private sponsor member the private member bill that is sponsored by an individual member of parliament,
00:51:34
Hellen Kimaru
Sure.
00:51:36
Emmanuel
and they go and debate about it. Maybe someone just has an interest, I would say. ah Just like what is happening, there's debate going around Kenya that a certain member of parliament and is sponsoring a motion that seeks to extend the time limits to seven years from the current six, I mean, five years in Kenya.
00:51:52
Emmanuel
So some of these things are being sponsored by individuals, you know, and maybe because people feel that it's it's a good motion and they get support from the state. But when we look at the the constitutional amendment right from 1995, when a ah they changed the time limit and then to 2017 when they changed the age limit.
00:52:15
Emmanuel
And so many people believe that this was is sponsored by Museveni because it it was just in his favor. When the time limit were removed,
00:52:25
Emmanuel
it gave Museveni the luxury to contest, I mean, to get into the elections without any limit.
00:52:26
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:52:33
Emmanuel
I mean, the only limit by the time that was left was the age now, that he could run for presidency as many times as he won, but when he reached the age of 75, that is when he becomes unqualified to run.
00:52:49
Emmanuel
But then again, in 2017, they took away that... they took away that that that that that law, that article in the constitution, I think it was 102 article in the U.S. Constitution.
00:52:58
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:52:59
Emmanuel
So when they took that out, when they amended it, it gave him a ah the luxury to run for the presidency again. and And to so many people, I think ah they they look at that as his weakness. I don't know if it's seen as a weakness, but as a way of not trusting Museveni.
00:53:21
Emmanuel
And then they they just look at him like, if we give him the opportunity to maybe get into his, again, going to change this law, So, many people have seen him as a dictator in that manner because they feel that he did dictates on what needs to be done on the constitution, that
00:53:34
Hellen Kimaru
feel free.
00:53:39
Emmanuel
favors him. Just like what happened in 1995, it favored him. The one that happened in 2017, it favored him. So so many Ugandans look at him at that lens as being a and dictator. And yeah, but to me, really, there's no clear proof that he supported that, right?
00:53:57
Emmanuel
Could be members of parliament who just sponsored it and The parliament, in real sense, in a real democracy, the executive, they ah they operate differently. the parliament has ah The legislature has a very different role, which is in making laws of the country, and the executive has a very different role.
00:54:14
Emmanuel
But they can work together at some point. So that's just that's my view about that.
00:54:22
Hellen Kimaru
And what do you think, Patrick, about you know the amendment? Mm-hmm.
00:54:27
Patrick Abure
Well, ah I agree with a lot of what Emma has said. And even i would add that how the parliament of Uganda operates and and how the executive of Uganda operate is similar to maybe most countries.
00:54:43
Emmanuel
Bye.
00:54:47
Patrick Abure
And there is, of course, just like in Kenya, the job of the the legislature in Uganda is as well to make laws. So it's just the same thing.
00:54:55
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:54:56
Patrick Abure
I think for me, ah when it comes to the removal of the age limits and time limits, whereas ah there is a conspiracy, the conspiracy that Emma has mentioned, that maybe...
00:55:11
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:55:14
Patrick Abure
President Museveni sponsored the bills that basically allowed for the presidential term limit and age limit to be removed.
00:55:26
Patrick Abure
But in my opinion, I would think whether that is it true or not, the parliamentarians are equally responsible and share in that blame.
00:55:39
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:55:41
Patrick Abure
Because Even if you sponsor a bill, if the parliamentarians do not vote on it, nothing happens.
00:55:50
Emmanuel
Right. 14.
00:55:51
Patrick Abure
But what happened? They overwhelmingly voted for the removal of the term limits and the age limit.
00:55:56
Emmanuel
what
00:56:01
Patrick Abure
And honestly, So they share as much blame as the president, if it is a true that he sponsored it.
00:56:06
Hellen Kimaru
oh Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:56:12
Patrick Abure
But I think for me, it it just goes to show how much damage the parliament can cause if they have their own agendas that ah may be a little bit really different from that of the people that have sent them to parliament.
00:56:27
Emmanuel
Thank you.
00:56:32
Patrick Abure
and And maybe i would even add and say that an example like this goes to show how we really need to be very careful with who we vote as a member of parliament.
00:56:49
Hellen Kimaru
That's true.
00:56:50
Patrick Abure
We have to be very careful because at the end of the day, they they get to make such really important and consequential decisions. such as these ones.
00:57:02
Patrick Abure
And when it it comes to the time limit and the age limit being removed, I know people have ah fixation to look at Museveni. No, look beyond Museveni.
00:57:15
Patrick Abure
Because Museveni is as human as you and me. And so he's going. So when you look at it, it benefits anyone that comes to power. Doesn't matter who, including even Bobby Wine, should he get to become the president of Uganda or Besije, should he get to become the president of Uganda?
00:57:24
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:57:35
Patrick Abure
It's like a thing that gets to benefit whoever comes next as the president beyond Museveni. Now, is that something that maybe we would want?
00:57:45
Patrick Abure
You know, maybe we need to have conversation together. ah about that but again who are we to decide oh to say we need to have conversation because it should be the ugandans to say we do not want to this but right now it feels like ugandans like you know what we sent you to represent us and you chose that that is what is best for us so be it
00:58:06
Hellen Kimaru
yeah
00:58:12
Patrick Abure
So even for us outside here, be like, for me, I'm like, okay, if it works for you, how is it my in my place to tell you that it it should be removed?
00:58:22
Patrick Abure
That's their business.
00:58:23
Emmanuel
Right.
00:58:24
Patrick Abure
So it's the business of Ugandans to decide, in my opinion.
00:58:24
Emmanuel
Right.
00:58:27
Emmanuel
Right.
00:58:28
Patrick Abure
But I would,
00:58:28
Emmanuel
Yeah, I think I... Yeah, go on.
00:58:31
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
00:58:31
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:58:31
Patrick Abure
yeah
00:58:31
Emmanuel
Go on.
00:58:33
Patrick Abure
I would think also that
00:58:33
Emmanuel
good
00:58:37
Patrick Abure
These changes, whether implemented by the president or influenced by the president or solely a parliamentary initiative by the parliamentarians, I would think that it really goes to show a lot how sometimes constitutional changes can be made when when when when there the
00:58:57
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:59:03
Patrick Abure
at times within the constitution or provisions within the constitution that inconvenience power
Power Dynamics and Institutional Independence
00:59:13
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:59:13
Patrick Abure
or that inconvenience those in power.
00:59:16
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:59:16
Patrick Abure
And so people get to do that such that they can get some luxury.
00:59:22
Patrick Abure
as in In essence, what happens is that the ceiling gets moved a little bit up. but not for everyone, right? Just for those few who are in power.
00:59:36
Patrick Abure
There's this ah book called Animal Farm by George Orwell. I don't know if some of you have read it.
00:59:42
Emmanuel
Yeah, I read that book.
00:59:42
Patrick Abure
There's a quote. Yes, there's a saying in that book that says, all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.
00:59:55
Hellen Kimaru
who
00:59:55
Emmanuel
right.
00:59:56
Patrick Abure
So I guess, you know, like when you see some of these changes being made, it's more like that analogy at the play, but at that a such high level. Yeah.
01:00:08
Hellen Kimaru
interesting
01:00:08
Emmanuel
yeah
01:00:08
Emmanuel
Yeah, I i think i I really like what Patrick brought in that um sometimes we really don't have to blame the president for some of the decisions that are made in his favor because we we as the people, we identify
01:00:22
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:00:27
Emmanuel
people you know ah in our constituencies that we send them to parliament to make laws for us. And the blame i think should rest entirely i mean on on on the the the parliamentarians that we chose, but also the voters as well.
01:00:45
Emmanuel
Because if we vote for people that go to parliament and make decisions that are not in our favour, then we should blame ourselves that maybe we are not in the right state of mind to identify ah leader who can act as our representative in the parliament.
01:00:59
Hellen Kimaru
you
01:01:05
Emmanuel
So if we send people that are not going to, then we must ask you what came over us that we were not able to identify this person as the rightful person, you know?
01:01:15
Emmanuel
And we do have laws and in the constitutions of laws that that dictates that the parliament or the legislature should operate independently.
01:01:26
Emmanuel
But why is it that even these members of the legislature, after knowing that, are still able to be bribed or to be maybe taken advantage of by the president?
01:01:37
Emmanuel
I think this entirely rests on the presidency, the legislature, but as the voters as well.
01:01:39
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:01:44
Emmanuel
you know and And sometimes these issues to do with the changes, as Patrick has said, they benefit not only the president, but even those who will come after him, right? so They will also have the chance to do that.
01:01:56
Emmanuel
But the most important thing is that the edge limit, I think one thing that people might have noticed is that people think the edge limit only opens a way for someone above 75 to get into the ballot.
01:02:09
Emmanuel
But also, It's becoming a culture well i mean all over the world that young people are agitating for change. So by eliminating that age limit opens a way for these young people who should have been restricted to be 35 years to become presidency.
01:02:27
Emmanuel
That age limit, the time it was erased, it opened more ways for those even below 35. to contest or to get into the the presidency as well. And just like what you have seen in the previous election, we had a guy in the name of John Katumba, who actually ran for president, Katumba, like that guy, right?
01:02:46
Emmanuel
So, but whereas, I think we shouldn't just look at it in the way of opening ways for Museveni, but also opening ways for, there could be some people who are more prominent, but they are under the age of
01:02:47
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. but
01:02:59
Emmanuel
thirty five 35. So by these, I think more ways are open for them now. They are given the platform to come and and display their abilities so people can notice them and and actually tell them, go for it.
01:03:13
Emmanuel
Go for the presidency. So it works in favor of everyone. And if we debate that it is a blame, it's something that is bad, then we should put that blame in entirely as well or equally on us as the voters or the Ugandan voters in this case.
01:03:29
Hellen Kimaru
Yeah, I like what you guys have talked about, especially in the context of voters. We all have a role to play, or even the women then people have a role to play. And in particular, you talked about people agitating for change.
01:03:41
Hellen Kimaru
I kind of feel like in my assessment from this conversation you are having, I feel like ah in Kenya, in East Africa, in Africa, and even though all all over around the world right now, ah there's been a way politics has run.
01:03:57
Hellen Kimaru
There's been a way people have been led. But there's this sort of awakening that has been happening around the world, which is why you would see youth in Malaysia or maybe Nepal wake up and protest and they're like, we don't want this, we don't want this type of government, you don't want to be led like this.
01:04:05
Emmanuel
Thank
01:04:13
Hellen Kimaru
And i feel like maybe even for Uganda, it's maybe probably it's just not the right time, but probably a time will come. when they'll experience their own ah in their own context their own particular ah political awakening that would probably lead to some level of change depending on what the change change looks like for them or what they would might they might want because right i feel like there's a lot of influence in social media we keep seeing a lot of things and I feel like ah like even with the Gen Z uprising last year in Kenya, I kind of feel like it kind of changed a bit of things out here. yeah
01:04:52
Hellen Kimaru
Maybe young people realize that they have power, they can advocate for change in their own countries and some have even gone to the extent of, you know, throwing out their governments and bringing in new governments and, you know,
01:05:07
Hellen Kimaru
looking and advocating for the change they want and the type of leadership they want. So maybe i mean it's just a matter of time. Mm-hmm.
01:05:16
Emmanuel
Definitely.
01:05:16
Patrick Abure
ah if If I could say something, ah just picking up from what you've said, i think one thing I can say is that
01:05:30
Patrick Abure
eight It is definitely it's definitely not that Ugandans are waiting for some form of political awakening, because I do think that Ugandans are politically awakened when you look at how engaged they are in their politics, whether it being online or in person.
01:05:39
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:05:47
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:05:51
Patrick Abure
Ugandans are definitely awake. they they They know what is going on. They participate actively. When you look at rallies
01:05:57
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:06:00
Patrick Abure
um that political leaders are currently conducting as part of the you know the the election campaigns and stuff like that, you see massive number of people different demographic, young people, older, middle-aged, all attending, right?
01:06:17
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:06:22
Patrick Abure
And even children. So I think that that really cannot happen without that kind of awareness or being politically awake about what is going in the country.
01:06:34
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:06:35
Patrick Abure
I think Ugandans do understand and i appreciate the importance of their participation in their politics. i I would think, though, that ah what maybe might be needed maybe would be more civic education, just to see to it that people are very informed when it it comes to making those decisions.
01:06:57
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:07:05
Patrick Abure
they they They are voting solely based on maybe the agenda that a candidate has presented before them, rather than maybe, you know, who they know or stuff like that.
01:07:15
Hellen Kimaru
me
01:07:22
Patrick Abure
I think like that is a super important thing. But I would also think that Ugandans definitely want change. right
01:07:31
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:07:32
Patrick Abure
They have always wanted change. Right now they want to change. Tomorrow, Ugandans still will want to change. This is simply because change means different things to Ugandans.
01:07:47
Patrick Abure
yeah maybe, for example, if someone is looking at it from an outsider perspective, for you, it'll be like, oh, no, the change they are waiting for ah is change of, you know, leadership for the president.
01:08:00
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:08:00
Emmanuel
Yes, it.
01:08:01
Patrick Abure
Well, that could be correct and that could be wrong at the same time, depending on which Ugandan you speak to.
01:08:07
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:08:08
Patrick Abure
So, and and it could be that the change they are waiting for is change around jobs, change around access to better health infrastructures, change around access to better services, whether it being hospital or what, and stuff like that.
01:08:29
Patrick Abure
So the change means different things and it will continue to be different even when we have a new president in Uganda. Because Ugandans will always want to change, but that change will always keep changing.
01:08:45
Patrick Abure
It will not be the same, the kind of stuff they're asking for.
01:08:50
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting.
01:08:50
Emmanuel
Great.
01:08:51
Hellen Kimaru
And how independent do you think are Uganda's key institutions, AG, the judiciary, the electoral commission? Because I feel like with Kenya, for example, we've struggled with some of these things before we got to a place where we could say things are a little bit better.
01:09:07
Hellen Kimaru
How independent do you think those institutions are in Uganda? Emmanuel?
01:09:15
Emmanuel
oh I think that's a very hard question because ah I haven't really experienced or haven't seen ah some of the actions that proofs that are done by these institutions that can tell us exactly whether they are independent or not independent.
01:09:20
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:09:37
Emmanuel
But when we look at the
01:09:38
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:09:40
Emmanuel
institution like ah even parliament. Parliament is a government institution, as they say. But yeah ah if if if if people claim that the the previous amendments introduced in the Ugandan constitution were sponsored by the president, then that posed a question, whether these institutions are independent.
01:10:02
Emmanuel
But also, i mean, for an institution to be independent, it entirely rests on the leadership of that particular institution. you know and And when we're talking about the parliament, when we're talking about the leadership of the parliament, we're talking about the speaker of the National Assembly, how independent is this speaker in running proceedings in the parliament?
01:10:24
Emmanuel
How independent is maybe the judiciary, the chief justice of the government of of the country in delivering verdicts or decisions that so much in impact the country, or even the electoral commission, the commissioners that are charged with the responsibility of delivering the results of an election.
01:10:38
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:10:42
Emmanuel
How independent are they? And as I have seen all these institutions in Uganda, I haven't really engaged so much in in an effort to maybe figure out if they are independent or not. Yes, there were claims in the previous elections that um the elections were rigged, that the elections were rigged, and then the real election results that were announced by the electoral commissions were actually not the right one.
01:11:12
Emmanuel
People claimed that Bobby won, and but Museveni went with the results at the end of the day. And even the verdict, at some point, did they filed a petition, but they withdrew the petition. So, I mean,
01:11:25
Emmanuel
The debate of whether Ugandan institutions are independent or no, I think that will need a very, very deep ah re research and and find out, look at these actions that were made, if at all, and all the claims presented by ah these.
01:11:26
Hellen Kimaru
Yeah.
01:11:39
Emmanuel
Maybe someone who just someone is just maybe posing a question, I mean, a claim that these institutions are not independent because they did not work in their favor, right? That could be the reason why they are doing that.
01:11:50
Hellen Kimaru
yeah
01:11:51
Emmanuel
But in real sense, it is independent. I mean, in the last previous election, even in Kenya, We have seen it happen many times that um the results of the elections after being released, the the running the they ran up to the elections. In most cases, you I mean, filed petition. They went for an appeal and and contested the results of the election. But at the end of the day, the judiciary comes out and say that this is...
01:12:19
Emmanuel
the results, this is the right person. So at the end of the day, whether these institutions are independent or not, we are the one who agree that we should have these institutions and we charge them with the responsibility.
01:12:32
Emmanuel
That if the electoral commission comes up with the results that this candidate is the one who has won the election, we have no choice but to accept it because in the first place, we are the one who established these institutions.
01:12:44
Emmanuel
that even when the judiciary comes out and says this is a verdict that we have passed regarding this ah case, we have no option, but we have to agree because we established this institution and we have actually given them the mandate.
01:12:47
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:12:59
Emmanuel
We have given them the the authority to deliver verdicts, to deliver results in country. place right as a country so i think this is a an issue that maybe for me as an outsider to come up with a an answer to whether these institutions are independent or no i think this needs me to engage with a lot of research and find out ah what are the qualifications or what qualifies this institution to be regarded as
01:13:30
Emmanuel
independent or not independent.
01:13:31
Hellen Kimaru
and
01:13:32
Emmanuel
But as I say, whether they are independent or no, in the first place, we establish them. So we have ah to live with the results they come with. They say, as you prepare the the bed, you must be ready to lie on it. So we are the one who establish them. So we must be ready as well to come up, I mean, to agree oh ah or to come into terms with every verdict and results that they're going to come up with.
01:13:56
Emmanuel
right.
01:13:57
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting. but she
01:14:01
Hellen Kimaru
How independent do you think?
01:14:05
Patrick Abure
No, honestly, i personally, i really don't you think um I know enough to be able to deliver a verdict on whether these institutions independent or not.
01:14:24
Patrick Abure
But one thing I have noticed, at least online, is that some people who have, in a very long time, been critics of these organs of government, such as, for example, the the judiciary.
01:14:40
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:14:43
Patrick Abure
I think this is probably one of the organs in Uganda that has really been dragged in public a lot, online and offline. But something I've noticed is that some of the people who have been longtime critics of these institutions have also become people who speak for these institutions because now these institutions work in their favor.
01:15:06
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:15:11
Hellen Kimaru
a
01:15:11
Patrick Abure
There's a clip I came across online where someone was saying, corruption is only but If it is someone else doing it, corruption is not bad.
01:15:27
Patrick Abure
If I am the one doing it and benefiting from it, i will defend corruption and I will defend it.
01:15:33
Emmanuel
I
01:15:35
Patrick Abure
And this was someone saying online.
01:15:40
Hellen Kimaru
justing uh-huh uh-huh
01:15:42
Patrick Abure
So for me, i think it's it's really one of those things that, you know, I don't know. Is it independent? Is it not independent? Because what you see is people who in the past, these institutions worked against them.
01:15:51
Hellen Kimaru
if who
01:15:57
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:15:57
Patrick Abure
Naturally, you get angry, frustrated, and you take it against these institutions.
01:16:02
Emmanuel
Mm-hmm.
01:16:03
Patrick Abure
And then all of a sudden, they work in your favor. I'm like, oh, shoot. It's fantastic. And then you start praising them all of a sudden.
01:16:14
Hellen Kimaru
Yeah, I see your point.
01:16:16
Patrick Abure
yeah don't you know.
01:16:18
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting. Makes a lot of sense, yeah. Honestly, yeah, from an outsider perspective, might not get the best glimpse of, you know, whether how fair or how best it works for Ugandan.
01:16:21
Patrick Abure
Yeah.
01:16:29
Hellen Kimaru
ah But you guys have lived in Uganda. You've interacted with Ugandans. You might know a little bit about this next question. Do you think, like, Ugandans are genuinely interested and desire political change?
01:16:43
Hellen Kimaru
And if so, what barriers prevent that change from becoming a reality for them?
01:16:50
Hellen Kimaru
Emmanuel.
01:16:53
Emmanuel
Yeah, um I think i would I would refer back to what Patrick has said that ah change to so many Ugandans i mean they could mean
Youth and Political Change
01:17:05
Emmanuel
differently.
01:17:05
Emmanuel
and And it's good that you specify about political change.
01:17:07
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:17:10
Emmanuel
So I think, of course, there are many Ugandans a who would agree that the they need a political change.
01:17:21
Emmanuel
Wouldn't it be maybe a change in the leadership, but a change in some of the ideas that this leadership should maybe start to have? Uganda could have the same leader as President Museven, but when they can have some changes in how ah the politics of the country should be run.
01:17:38
Hellen Kimaru
OK.
01:17:40
Emmanuel
I mean... It doesn't matter you cut across if you're in the opposition or in the government. I mean, everyone wants a country where you have the freedom to speak up your mind.
01:17:51
Emmanuel
You you have a access to...
01:17:52
Hellen Kimaru
to
01:17:54
Emmanuel
i mean, you're given... you have freedom to associate with whosoever you want. it It doesn't matter if you are in the government or in the opposition. and and And I feel people need that change.
01:18:06
Emmanuel
It's not only... they they really desire that change. And it's not only the young people, but even the elderly as well. They just want country where um they can be seen as a at the center of its decision making.
01:18:23
Emmanuel
So and it does not necessarily mean a change of leadership, but it's just a change of ideas and ideals like what this leadership stands for.
01:18:26
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:18:33
Emmanuel
and and And I think change is always in inevitable. And people would always want change. And change will never stop. You can have a change today, the next day. And and change can actually be determined by so many factors.
01:18:46
Emmanuel
And time is one of them. And it could be also influenced by other factors, external, internal factors. So I feel at the moment Ugandans are... ah they are contented with some of the things that the regime has done, but they feel a little that there is need for more to be done, right?
01:19:06
Emmanuel
There is more for um an inclusive ah country where ah they can have like everyone's ah opinions, listen to.
01:19:17
Emmanuel
I think that is the change that ah Ugandans need and that change is mainly with the young people because they know what their future holds. They know that much of what the country ah will have is going to be in their benefit and that's what they really want right now majority of ugandans who need to change this are the young ugandans who they look at their future beyond these current leaders right these are the only people who are agitating for change and i feel they are desperate for it right now but it doesn't uh they can have that change with museveni as their president as well as long as there is a good will there is a good will being portrayed by the president museveni to do that so they can have this regardless of who is
01:19:37
Hellen Kimaru
and
01:19:42
Hellen Kimaru
okay
01:19:45
Hellen Kimaru
cut
01:20:05
Emmanuel
their president, they could have a new president, Bob Wain, but they can also agitate for change. Bob Wain might come with different ideas that is contradictory to what the Ugandan people need. So if he does that, then definitely they ah can as well call for change. So change is something that will never come to stop. It will never stop. It will always be there regardless who is the president.
01:20:28
Emmanuel
So I think Ugandans need that change and they always need it.
01:20:29
Hellen Kimaru
who Nice.
01:20:33
Emmanuel
When things are bad in the country, they always need change. And I think that will happen not just for today, but even when they have a new political dispensation or new leadership in the country, change will always be there.
01:20:45
Emmanuel
right
01:20:49
Hellen Kimaru
Patrick.
01:20:51
Patrick Abure
ah I think ah Emma has said it very eloquently. our ah from
01:20:56
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:20:58
Patrick Abure
From high school, and probably Emma has learned this, we've always been told in class that there is only one thing that is constant in this life, and that is a change.
01:21:06
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:21:13
Patrick Abure
Change will change you even if you do not want to change.
01:21:13
Hellen Kimaru
Ciao.
01:21:19
Patrick Abure
And that's how constant change is And so i would think that Just like Emma has said it so nicely, Ugandans have always wanted change.
01:21:32
Patrick Abure
And they still are demanding for change. And they will always demand for change. And again, this means different things. Change means different things for different categories of Ugandans.
01:21:45
Patrick Abure
But I would do think that even when you're speaking about political change, Just like Emma said it really nicely, it goes beyond change of who is the president to maybe the systems and the structures that are in place that may be disadvantaging some people or groups of people or marginalizing some people or groups ah of people and that need to be improved.
01:21:50
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:22:16
Patrick Abure
ah and and But also, i would think that some of these changes are really part and parcel of economic changes.
01:22:29
Patrick Abure
In fact, I think a lot of them are actually informed by economic changes. Like they play a huge role in informing some of the political changes that end up happening.
01:22:36
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:22:41
Patrick Abure
I would think that If really things go really bad, like extremely bad economically, in Uganda, you will be surprised what Ugandans will do.
01:22:56
Hellen Kimaru
whom
01:22:57
Patrick Abure
There's nothing that can push you to your limits.
01:23:00
Patrick Abure
Done. than, you know, that that economic hardship that pushes you to a corner.
01:23:06
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:23:08
Patrick Abure
and And so I think that maybe ah things are not as bad as maybe they seem. ah But I would also think that...
01:23:21
Patrick Abure
but when When it comes to change, I think the the opposition definitely needed to present a more stronger, to present themselves as a strong alternative to Museveni and his government.
01:23:35
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:23:38
Patrick Abure
they They need to do that maybe better because I think maybe at the moment the people really don't see the opposition as a very strong alternative to Museveni.
01:23:49
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:23:50
Patrick Abure
Because I was having some conversations with some young people ah in Koboko and in Kampala about what they thought. about Bobby Wine.
01:24:01
Patrick Abure
And this was not recent. and This was in 2020. I think probably around December there.
01:24:06
Hellen Kimaru
Oh, wow.
01:24:07
Patrick Abure
It was the height of the campaign.
01:24:08
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:24:10
Patrick Abure
There was so much going on. But I was asking if some of them were going to vote for Bobby Wine since, you know, he was the hottest thing.
01:24:22
Hellen Kimaru
What next?
01:24:22
Patrick Abure
But I was so surprised that some of them really said, no, I'm not going to vote for him.
01:24:27
Patrick Abure
And I asked why. But some of them were like, this guy, the only thing that he has communicated clearly to us is that he wants to remove Museveni in a very clear slogan, which is Museveni must go.
01:24:42
Emmanuel
Right.
01:24:45
Hellen Kimaru
you
01:24:48
Patrick Abure
But he hasn't told us what next after Museveni.
01:24:48
Hellen Kimaru
who buttoning Mm-hmm. who
01:24:55
Patrick Abure
And so for that person, that was like the most defining thing for him. And so for him, he thought, unless that is communicated clearly, what next after M7?
01:25:06
Patrick Abure
He still doesn't de see Bobby Wine as a presidential candidate because all he does is just, we want this guy to go, but doesn't give a very strong political and the economic agenda for the country and how he's going to execute that agenda.
01:25:25
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting.
01:25:26
Patrick Abure
And I think that is probably also something that has worked maybe um in favor of Museveni and not in favor of Bobby Wine. But I think looking at some of the recent messaging and the communication and even positionality, how the opposition has positioned to themselves, especially Bobby Wine, looking at their manifesto and so forth, I think they they ah They have improved significantly from just seven months ago to now something bigger than that.
01:25:58
Hellen Kimaru
Wow. Mm-hmm.
01:26:02
Patrick Abure
And I think that is what Ugandans want to see. And maybe this time yeah they they they they managed to convince Ugandans that, you know, we are the right people to bring in the new Uganda.
01:26:07
Hellen Kimaru
here
01:26:15
Emmanuel
i
01:26:17
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:26:17
Emmanuel
yeah i I think aye I as well had the privilege to go through the manifesto of the NUP, which is titled A New Uganda Now.
01:26:28
Emmanuel
And it was really, really a very, very, very ah appealing manifesto that you could easily see that it's ah what a country needs to have. But the one thing that I guess the opposition is left with is one they really, really have to work on ah putting down those structures up to the grassroots level. That is one thing.
01:26:47
Emmanuel
You could have one of their best structures i mean the best manifesto in the in the world, but if you don't take this manifesto down to the roots and tell the people that this is actually what we stand for,
01:26:58
Emmanuel
then people will never know about what are you're standing for.
01:27:00
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:27:01
Emmanuel
So I think they really have to do on that. They need to work on that very, very, very well. They need to establish a structure at least in every village. They need to have even a candidate like standing even in the LC1 position, which is very important.
01:27:15
Emmanuel
The grassroots levels are the ones that are very important. Majority of the opposition in Uganda, they're only centralized. They're based mainly in the densely populated area, and that is in the cities.
01:27:25
Emmanuel
Because this is a, I think it's Bobuwain's support base in mainly the Kampala, Wakisu regions.
01:27:30
Hellen Kimaru
Have we lost Emmanuel?
01:27:31
Emmanuel
Like, this is where the opposition is.
01:27:32
Hellen Kimaru
Can you still hear him?
01:27:34
Patrick Abure
No, I can't hear him.
01:27:34
Emmanuel
They need to develop really, really, very, very good structures down down to the grassroots.
01:27:36
Patrick Abure
Looks like we've lost Emma.
01:27:39
Hellen Kimaru
Ah, you could pause it.
01:27:42
Patrick Abure
Okay. Okay.
01:27:45
Hellen Kimaru
So, as Uganda heads towards the 2026 election, um I saw a clip online of him saying he was asking people from Uganda to just vote him one last time.
Looking Ahead to the 2026 Elections
01:27:56
Hellen Kimaru
This will be the last round for him or according to him. Do guys think he's going to win?
01:28:16
Hellen Kimaru
Uh-huh.
01:28:45
Hellen Kimaru
Thank you.
01:29:16
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:31:07
Hellen Kimaru
Thank you.
01:31:36
Hellen Kimaru
who Interesting. Patrick, do you think he will win?
01:31:44
Patrick Abure
Well, I think ah President Museven has a higher chance of winning the 2026 elections.
01:31:52
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:31:58
Patrick Abure
um First, because honestly, like he his party has a really very deep structural presence or grassroots presence.
01:32:11
Patrick Abure
And I think that is a big, big advantage. But I also understand that when it comes to the opposition, I think this particular election cycle is different because now...
01:32:28
Patrick Abure
they can all go out and pull in as massive crowds as they can without any constraints from either the government or the law enforcement agencies.
01:32:30
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:32:43
Patrick Abure
Because in 2020, it was an issue of COVID-19. And and so pulling in a lot of crowds like ah Bobby Wine was doing, it was clearly breaking the law.
01:32:59
Patrick Abure
And so it brought in a lot of is issues and stuff like that, even though some people, you know, defended him and saying, but laws are laws. And it kind of affected the his political campaigns a little bit.
01:33:13
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:33:15
Patrick Abure
But I think now it's different. he can go out and pull as many people as possible. And Museveni can do the same. And any other person who is contesting can do the same.
01:33:31
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:33:32
Patrick Abure
So I would think that really, especially the two parties, NUP and NRM, chances are very high.
01:33:43
Patrick Abure
that one of the party bearers might end up becoming the president of Uganda in 2026.
01:33:50
Hellen Kimaru
so
01:33:52
Patrick Abure
Although I would still place my bet on President Museveni if I were betting.
01:33:59
Hellen Kimaru
I have to only wanted to ask if you'd place a bet.
01:34:19
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:34:28
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:34:34
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting.
01:34:35
Hellen Kimaru
Okay.
01:34:35
Patrick Abure
Yeah.
01:34:36
Patrick Abure
And and honestly, it's it's very interesting because, again, i for me, I see that possibility happening. Right. ah he is very He is very popular.
01:34:48
Patrick Abure
He might not be the most capable person, but he is very popular.
01:34:51
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:34:52
Patrick Abure
but
01:34:52
Hellen Kimaru
okay
01:34:53
Patrick Abure
And, you know, like, you know, things like with elections, sometimes you don't need to be the most capable person to win.
01:35:01
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:35:02
Patrick Abure
People don't care.
01:35:03
Patrick Abure
As long as they want you to be the president, they'll vote for you. you know
01:35:07
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:35:08
Patrick Abure
So chances are high that, yeah, for sure, he he he could win the election. But I also would to think that, honestly, when we are talking about voter coercion, what exactly are we talking about?
01:35:22
Patrick Abure
Because we've not seen... government agencies or maybe NRM agencies going door to door with a gun to your head and saying, vote, President Museven, or you're gone.
01:35:36
Hellen Kimaru
What about bribing?
01:35:39
Patrick Abure
Yes. We've not seen any of that. So it's it's one of those things that is debatable.
01:35:42
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:35:45
Patrick Abure
Is it really voter coercion? oh What is it? We can't tell. And...
01:35:51
Hellen Kimaru
What about bribes?
01:35:53
Patrick Abure
Your pardon?
01:35:54
Hellen Kimaru
What about bribes?
01:35:57
Patrick Abure
I mean, again, this this this ah because when when you when you look at, for example, things like bribes, would you say that is coercion?
01:36:04
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:36:08
Patrick Abure
A bribes coercion. Because coercion, you're looking at of force.
01:36:13
Hellen Kimaru
Okay.
01:36:14
Patrick Abure
Bribes is inducement.
01:36:16
Hellen Kimaru
a
01:36:17
Patrick Abure
You induce people.
01:36:17
Hellen Kimaru
It's like manipulation. Mm-hmm.
01:36:19
Patrick Abure
Yes, it's a man it's a form of manipulat manipulation. It's not really coercion because there's no use of force. You're using resources.
01:36:25
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:36:26
Patrick Abure
But again, ah that definitely maybe does happen. But who is to say that it is only happening within the ruling party?
01:36:37
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:36:39
Patrick Abure
I don't know. So only those who have really proper details can be able to tell.
01:36:44
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:36:46
Patrick Abure
Because I would think that if you're talking about bribing people, Anyone is capable of bribing anyone. It's not just limited to the president or the ruling party or anyone.
01:37:01
Patrick Abure
Anyone, including those in the opposition, are capable of bribing and are capable of receiving bribes. In fact, I would even say there was one member of NUP who
01:37:10
Hellen Kimaru
him
01:37:17
Patrick Abure
who received a form of payment, was it in 2024 or 2023, that I think would amount maybe to something like a bribe, although it was legitimately decided in parliament mean as a payment for that person.
01:37:24
Hellen Kimaru
Oh, wow.
01:37:36
Patrick Abure
But payment that you are the one allocating yourself, you're the one sitting in the approval committee to approve for your yourself your own payment.
01:37:45
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:37:48
Patrick Abure
But when it comes to bribing, anyone is capable of bribing or receiving a bribe. So I would think that when we talk about voter coercion, it's really a very abstract idea that we really don't know how impactful or how much impact it's having.
01:38:04
Hellen Kimaru
Thank you.
01:38:05
Patrick Abure
over how How much does it exist on the ground? It's like one of those things that...
01:38:50
Hellen Kimaru
um
01:39:19
Hellen Kimaru
It's momentum. Mhm.
The Need for Stability and Institutional Strengthening
01:39:45
Hellen Kimaru
who
01:40:22
Hellen Kimaru
yeah
01:40:27
Hellen Kimaru
interesting wow uh any last thoughts on this conversation as za we wind up patrick we could start with you
01:40:37
Patrick Abure
ah I think for me, ah honestly, the the Ugandan politics is very interesting. ah it It gives one the interest to one to actually follow politics every day.
01:40:55
Patrick Abure
but Although, you know, it has its chaos.
01:40:59
Patrick Abure
It's more dramatic
01:41:01
Patrick Abure
like the U.S. elections and the U.S. politics. It's so dramatic that every time you wake up, you want to see what is a new.
01:41:10
Patrick Abure
And for the U.S., it never disappoints.
01:41:14
Patrick Abure
There's always drama. but but yeah
01:41:19
Hellen Kimaru
That's true.
01:41:20
Patrick Abure
But I think apart from that,
01:41:23
Patrick Abure
One thing I see is that this twenty
01:41:29
Patrick Abure
this 2026 election is going to be a very decisive election for Uganda in so many ways.
01:41:36
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:41:39
Patrick Abure
It's either um going to be Museveni, and then after that, we see what comes after him.
01:41:47
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:41:48
Patrick Abure
or it's going to be an entirely new person coming on board as the president.
01:41:56
Patrick Abure
Could be Bobu Wain, could be someone else.
01:41:58
Patrick Abure
ah But and regardless, I think for me, my hope is that whatever happens, the peace and ins stability and law and order that Uganda has enjoyed
01:42:18
Patrick Abure
for decades should continue, irrespective of who comes to be the president.
01:42:23
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:42:24
Patrick Abure
Doesn't matter. That should continue because a lot of things depend on that.
01:42:33
Patrick Abure
The reason why is Uganda has grown so much, whether it being economic-wise, infrastructure-wise, population-wise, the population is so big right now, investments-wise is because of the stability that the country has been able to provide, that investors and people are willing
01:42:57
Patrick Abure
to put in their resources knowing they will be able to make them back or stuff like that.
01:43:03
Patrick Abure
But I think if ah someone else comes and he doesn't maintain that environment, it's going to be chaos.
01:43:12
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:43:13
Patrick Abure
And honestly, that would be unfortunate. I think for me, really,
01:43:17
Patrick Abure
irrespective of what the results of the election ends up being, the peace and stability and security and the order should continue to prevail um in Uganda.
01:43:31
Patrick Abure
But I also think that whoever comes on board, be it as the president or a member of parliament, it's really super important
01:43:40
Patrick Abure
that we keep building up institutions like, for example, the constitution, building up the constitution so it is strong that it's able to protect those rights ah for us and even for those who will come after us.
01:43:59
Patrick Abure
Because honestly speaking, personally, I see a constitution as a promise.
01:44:08
Patrick Abure
a promise that the country has made its citizens who will protect you.
01:44:10
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:44:14
Patrick Abure
You have the right to speak up.
01:44:15
Patrick Abure
You right you have the right to hold us accountable. You have the right to education. like It's a huge promise.
01:44:23
Patrick Abure
You have the right to access jobs and so forth. And if you have people who come in and keep changing this without necessarily looking at the bigger picture of how,
01:44:35
Patrick Abure
us whom the promise is being made to are going to be impacted by this. I think it's going to be disastrous for the local people, the ordinary people.
01:44:44
Hellen Kimaru
okay
01:44:48
Patrick Abure
But also, you know, it gets people to stop believing in that promise. And that's where carnage and the other stuff could come in. So think it's very important that we continue to build up and to strengthen institutions that allow for our rights to flourish, for our democracy to flourish, um and and to get to politics that is based on ideology rather than than sectarianism, which is, I think, that is probably one idea that I really love that is provocated by Museven always.
01:45:24
Patrick Abure
that we need to move beyond sectarian politics, politics of division, and move beyond that to now discussing ideology. Let it be your ideology against mine.
01:45:35
Patrick Abure
If yours wins this election, maybe mine will win the next one. But irrespective of that, we can disagree. We can do what? But let it be about the ideology, not maybe where I come from or the community I come from.
01:45:48
Hellen Kimaru
Interesting. Manuel, last thoughts.
01:46:04
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:46:14
Hellen Kimaru
the
01:47:14
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:47:49
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
01:48:44
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
Conclusion: Reflections on Resilience and Future Discussions
01:49:15
Hellen Kimaru
Wow.
01:49:18
Hellen Kimaru
Patrick, you have something else?
01:49:21
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:49:21
Patrick Abure
No, just wanted to add to what Emma said and say that honestly, ah when voting for our MPs and and leaders in this coming election cycle, it's really important that we focus on the...
01:49:33
Hellen Kimaru
Mm-hmm.
01:49:41
Patrick Abure
ah agenda that these people have for us and maybe, you know, our own place. That is very important. Rather than maybe focusing on just, you know, they they the individual or maybe their yeah their background.
01:49:59
Patrick Abure
Because there are lot of cases I've seen where people voted just because, you know, maybe they they have a, they call it legacy. They have maybe their parents or grandparents were in the government and they did great job.
01:50:09
Hellen Kimaru
Yeah.
01:50:12
Patrick Abure
And so they get voted really. yeah
01:50:17
Patrick Abure
Legacy politicians.
01:50:17
Hellen Kimaru
Yeah.
01:50:19
Patrick Abure
Yeah.
01:50:19
Hellen Kimaru
the room
01:50:20
Patrick Abure
I think we need to move beyond that. We need to move now beyond that to voting people because of the agenda that they have.
01:50:32
Hellen Kimaru
yeah
01:50:32
Patrick Abure
and then And then such that we do not have ah situations where...
01:50:38
Patrick Abure
We have very critical decisions being made in parliament without us as the people being consulted.
01:50:47
Patrick Abure
When ideally, when there are critical decisions that are about to be made, such as change of a time limit, presidential limit, the people should be consulted.
01:50:59
Patrick Abure
They should come down to us and ask us, is this something we want? But I think if we have people who, like Emma has put it very nicely, politicians who are serving as praise and worship group for the executive, ah we end up getting what we've seen in the country here.
01:51:15
Hellen Kimaru
who Yeah.
01:51:21
Hellen Kimaru
Wow. Thank you, gentlemen. I feel like you have given a really good analysis of political the political landscape in Uganda, what the future looks like, and maybe even what the election might look like.
01:51:33
Hellen Kimaru
I appreciate you taking the time.
01:51:35
Hellen Kimaru
Yes. And we could say that Uganda's story is one of resilience and power and the constant search for freedom, whether or not they want change or the change comes sooner. The conversation about leadership and democracy must continue, not just also in Uganda, but across Africa.
01:51:52
Hellen Kimaru
Thank you for tuning into the Spark It podcast. Don't forget to follow, share, and spark a conversation that matters.
01:51:59
Hellen Kimaru
Until next time, I'm your host, Helen Kimaru, and I was joined by Emmanuel Taban from the cons Concerned podcast and my co-host, Patrick Abure. Until next time, kwaheri.
01:52:12
Patrick Abure
Bye. bye
01:52:13
Hellen Kimaru
ah
01:52:15
Hellen Kimaru
Yes. yeah