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EP 25: The Fall of Benjamin Bol Mel: He Had It All… Then Kiir Took EVERYTHING.
12 Plays16 days ago
This episode of the Spark It Podcast dives deep into the shocking fall of Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel. In a rapid series of presidential decrees, President Salva Kiir Mayardit removed, relieved, demoted, and dismissed Bol Mel from every position of power: Vice President for the Economic Cluster, Deputy Chairman of the SPLM, National Security Service, and even his rank as a full military General. We explore why Bol Mel rose so quickly — and why his fall was even faster. We explore loyalty, political immaturity, corruption allegations, Kiir’s power consolidation, internal SPLM dynamics, and what this fallout means for South Sudan’s future, business climate, and stability. Tune in to understand what really happened — and what comes next.
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Transcript
Political Upheaval: VP Benjamin Ball Removed
00:00:05
Speaker
Emma, have you seen the ah news on the recent presidential reshuffle that just happened? when i i saw it when I was at work today. so I was just working and then um I was doing some stuff and then I just decided to just pick up my phone and and then just went on Facebook.
00:00:25
Speaker
And the first news I saw like from one of the, I think the the Facebook pages, and then it was like, I actually saw it from one guy who was posting about there is a political activist, I think, who went to exile to Kenya because I think Mel was threatening, I mean, it was a threat to him. So he ran to exile into Kenya, but then he posted like before the the decree was issued and it was like,
00:00:49
Speaker
I'm going to come back to South Sudan as soon as possible because mail is going to be released. And it's just exactly after some few minutes, I read the same thing on and on that page. President South Africa relieved Benjamin Ball mail as the vice president.
00:01:03
Speaker
And then, man, and then in the end there, I saw the other um ah Positions that it was relieved from is dismissed from the National Security Services and National Security Services demoted from Army mean general ah full general into a private and dismissed as first deputy the chairperson of the SPLM party. i was like, what the hell is this?
00:01:26
Speaker
I think so many people were expecting that. So, yeah, I just saw it when I was working. And then, yeah, but I i wasn't surprised, though. I expected that this would happen, but I never expected it that would happen today.
00:01:37
Speaker
Yeah. Basically, Bolmel lost all four positions within... at the same time, within like 30 minutes. I mean, yeah, like, does I feel like that is there is a very big humiliation to him. I mean, you've been undressed of all the privileges and powers that were given to you.
00:01:59
Speaker
and And I think that should worry him so much because I mean, you're being humiliated in the face of the entire nation. Remember, he was just appointed the other day as a vice president, promoted as a general, as WTIP president of the army, and then into the National Security Service.
00:02:16
Speaker
Just within some few seconds, then you... deprived of all these privileges and taken back into a common citizen of a country. I mean, that's so humiliating, I think. It's so, so bad for him.
00:02:27
Speaker
Yeah. But that's how Paul... Right. Yeah. Within just a minute, he's now an ordinary citizen, just like any one of us. Yeah, just like, in fact, I just feel like you can you can walk with him now on the same street, probably.
00:02:43
Speaker
If you have access, no one is going to do anything to you. So he's those I think they withdrawed all the bodyguards and all this kind of stuff. So it's literally just like an ordinary citizen, like any other person walking in the streets of Konyo Konyo or somewhere. So yeah, that's that's how painful it is sometimes.
00:03:03
Speaker
Politics is not easy, man. i I don't know what crime he committed that made the president actually to do this. I mean, this is this is huge. It is really, really huge. I can only imagine.
00:03:16
Speaker
i mean, this thing is done for someone who has really committed a very, very grave a crime against is someone. You cannot just relieve someone of all these powers like this and take him to a military, je i mean I mean, just a mere citizen.
00:03:31
Speaker
So, yeah, but we hope that all, maybe with time, the whole story about this comes out and we really get to understand what inspired the decree by the president.
00:03:43
Speaker
What was your initial impressions of what actually happened? i think ah I wasn't really surprised by the removal of Dr. Benjamin Ballmer because um I mean, the over the week, there has been always these um rumors circulating on social media and everywhere about um some kind of misunderstanding between Mel and the president.
00:04:10
Speaker
And, you know... um President Kiel over the time has actually exhibited some kind of insecurity. And when he sees that there's someone who he feels insecure, I feel that he will really get rid of you. And I expected this. It didn't really take me by surprise.
00:04:28
Speaker
And also given the fact that um Mel is... a guy who is, I would say, not politically rooted. Really, he doesn't really have a very strong base in politics.
00:04:40
Speaker
And he perhaps, i would say, lacks some kind of ah um political traits to actually ah ah hold that position. So I i really expect that he's based on all these factors, the fact that he is politically premature and also that he has some kind of ah maybe some tensions with the president, a person who he shouldn't have have any issues with.
00:05:04
Speaker
And yeah, the news actually didn't take me by surprise. I expected it and it happened. But I didn't expect that it was going to happen this soon because so many people have been looking at him as an immediate replacement to Kir maybe at some point, but it really happened so soon. But I expected it and it wasn't a surprise.
00:05:26
Speaker
Right. Yeah, it's very shocking. ah And you know, for me, when I came across the news, I felt like how sad it is that the the apparent, hair apparent of Salva Kirmayer did. At least that is how the netizens have always portrayed him as How sad that now all of a sudden he has fallen from the most if decorated official in the country to a civilian with no military power or any a political position at all.
00:06:13
Speaker
And I'm just wondering, like, you have mentioned political immaturity in the sense that this person wasn't in politics and stuff
Ball's Business Ties and Political Fall
00:06:23
Speaker
like that. maybe Maybe before we even get to analyze this fallout more in deep, who is Benjamin Balmel in South Sudan's political and economic landscape for maybe people who might not know his full profile?
00:06:41
Speaker
i I think ah ah the information that I have about Merlis is that he is a very renowned business guy in the country. I mean, ah he ran so many businesses, I guess, like owned many companies and And I feel they had some kind of partnership with President Kiran that gave him the advantage of actually coming into the political space.
00:07:03
Speaker
But he is, i mean, apart from politics, he's known as a very prominent and and very good businessman in the country. And that is what he's mainly known for. He's known as a business person in the country.
00:07:17
Speaker
And maybe because of their connections with Kiran and the sorts of stuff that actually made him but to the presidency, But yeah, um Mel is seen, I mean, over the over the months, he has actually come to the spotlight, a very high positions, being appointed from, I mean, from the advisory role as the presidential special envoy, and I mean, envoy and special program, the position that currently occupied by Kiel's daughter.
00:07:47
Speaker
That's the position where i think he started and later on, he got appointed to the vice president of the Republic of South Sudan, heading the economic cluster and later promoted to a full general.
00:07:59
Speaker
I mean, these are some of the changes that, some of the promotions that he witnessed within a very short time. But Mel is not, a I don't really in most cases regard him as a typical politician because he really lacks that. He is a business person.
00:08:13
Speaker
And up I feel it is, he actually at some point, I feel that he tried to bring in his, his business mindset into a political atmosphere. Because, you know, so many politicians, I mean, many businessmen, they always are profit-oriented, you know, they have ah ambitions. And it's it's a very different case when you come to political space, right?
00:08:37
Speaker
and and And over the the the weeks, we heard about tensions that emerged between Kir and Vice President, where the the Vice President, I think, started developing some kind of envy and wants to i mean have like more powers and even assume to be having powers than the President.
00:08:58
Speaker
And then that's what provoked Kir to actually invoke his powers to issue the decree. So regarding Mel, I know him as a business person. i mean, he's not more of a politician to me, but a business person.
00:09:16
Speaker
You know, so many people, they they they saw that... Mel at some point was going to be i mean a heir to the throne. I mean, like Keir's immediate replacement. and that's what really so many But I don't think that really President Keir had the intent of making Benjamin Bollman to be his success. I never saw that.
00:09:38
Speaker
um All i I saw is that ah the reason why kid was bringing Mel to the position is definitely because they really had a very good working relationship in terms of business, but not and then in in in him becoming his replacement.
00:09:54
Speaker
But yes, the fall of ah Mel from his position, i you know when when I read about it and I considered the factors actually led to his downfall or their political divorce,
00:10:08
Speaker
It reminded me of the the the the story of how Lucifer fell. I mean, when he was overthrown, you know, when when he saw that he was praised and a very beautiful angel and and powerful, he started like...
00:10:22
Speaker
developing some kind of envy and he wants to be God, right? He even went on and then he tried to, uh, convince some of the angels to in heaven so they could wage some kind of war against God. And that was the time he was thrown to, to, to, to the earth. And that's exactly how, how, um,
00:10:41
Speaker
ah Benjamin Balmel actually conducted himself. I think he should have actually understood that serving in that position and in a country like South Sudan, where the position is not constitutionally protected from you, but you only serve at the mercy of the president, he should have understood that you ought to actually exhibit some level of loyalty to the president. But I think that is what he did not did not exhibit. And because of that, a there are rumours about how he wants to overthrow Kir and become the president. And I think that's what actually led to his ah downfall so fast and and within a very short time.
00:11:25
Speaker
Had he conducted himself very well and exhibited some kind of loyalty to President Kir, I think his political lifespan in his position would have been actually long. But unfortunately, he didn't do that. He didn't conduct himself in the most rightful way that ah would have actually made President Kir to make him serve in that position.
00:11:47
Speaker
and This is very interesting because maybe you could ah break it down a little bit for us because I think from what I have read from the decrease, I understand that Benjamin Balmel has been relieved of his position as the vice president for the economic cluster.
00:12:14
Speaker
He has been dismissed from his position as the deputy chairman of the SPLM party.
00:12:26
Speaker
ah He has also been relieved ah of his duty as a military general. to now just a private, ordinary citizen.
00:12:38
Speaker
On top of that, um he has been also dismissed from the National ah Security Service. he says this Don't you think this is just a lot of stuff at play here for one to just say this was about disloyalty,
00:13:01
Speaker
ah i mean a ah the the the level of dismissal I mean, the number of positions that he was dismissed from, that clearly ah determines the kind of ah the crime that maybe he has committed. I mean, you can't be demoted from all these positions.
00:13:21
Speaker
um If you haven't done anything, that is that is wrong. and And the kind of ah disloyalty that I was meaning is that, you know, when you're not loyal to someone, of course, you want to maybe wage some kind of, I mean, a coup or something, again overthrow him, that means you're not loyal to him. So that might be the basis on where, I mean, bringing my disloyalty kind of argument here.
00:13:46
Speaker
But, I mean, as as you mentioned about all the positions that he was relieved from, this clearly tells us about the the amount or the the gravity of the disloyalty that he has exhibited to Kir. Perhaps Kir understands very well. You know, there's always a saying that if you want to make a he-goat,
00:14:06
Speaker
um to actually if If you want the ego to be sexually dumb, then what you need to do is you need to castrate it. you know and And I feel that is what exactly Keith knows. you know Being full general in the army gives Mel a lot of privileges, right? He would have a command at some point, of some section of the army, he would have a command over by it.
00:14:29
Speaker
That means he can even command the army to do something against someone he doesn't like, or an individual, could be even the president or the other vice president. Being a member of the National Security Service, that ah gives him a lot of intelligence about the country.
00:14:44
Speaker
Being a party deputy chairperson gives him advantage of serving in different structures of the SPLM party. And these are all privileges that come with the positions that he served. So relieving him as the vice president of the country, i mean, that because the the position of the vice president of the country is always related, is coordinated to the deputy chairperson the first deputycha person of the the SPLM party.
00:15:08
Speaker
So the moment you are not serving as the vice president, then obviously ah you, i mean, the moment you serve as the vice president of the country, you likely be appointed as well as the deputy chairperson of the SPLM party.
00:15:21
Speaker
And when you're relieved from that, that goes away with you as well. The position of the deputy chairperson of the party and the vice president of the country, they are so much detached. They're all, i mean, they are so much embedded together. So once you get relief from one, then you go away with all. But I feel the reason why he was dismissed from the National Security Council, it is because they want to actually... ah They don't want to give him the privilege of getting about the intelligence of the country. I think that that is the main reason, so that he doesn't get information about the intelligence of the country, which is a very, very important ah sector of the security of the country.
00:16:00
Speaker
and And I feel, yeah, relieving him from all this can easily make us understand of the amount of crime or the kind of disloyalty as exhibited to the president.
00:16:12
Speaker
If at all it wasn't something so huge, perhaps it would only be maybe just a relief from the Vice President, but he can still remain a General in the SSPDF or even a member of the National Security Service or any very important person in the SPLM party.
00:16:30
Speaker
But he got relief from all distraughts. He you got dismissed and worst of all from full General to a private mayor and ordinary citizen. and That clearly explains to us the amount or the gravity of crime he has committed or the kind of disloyalty he has exhibited against the president.
00:16:51
Speaker
It's very interesting that the decrees did not explain why he has been relieved of all of these positions.
00:17:05
Speaker
Yeah, i I really don't think decrease in most cases. They do explain reasons in detail why someone is released. We expect the president to have, you know, in most cases, oh ah the president issues decrease.
00:17:23
Speaker
um maybe through a press conference or, I mean, an address, like he makes an address to the nation and then he makes a cabinet resale. We've seen this happen in Kenya, where, ah especially during the protest time and the president had to resolve dissolve his cabinet, what he did was that He organized for the press, the media, they came to the state house and he went on, he read
Speculations Around Ball's Dismissal
00:17:47
Speaker
the whole statement meant about dissolving the cabinet and he gave the reasons.
00:17:54
Speaker
But I think he would only explain in details ah when the he may be supposed to have like a press conference or kind of and an address to the nation. I mean, decrees are always sought. And I didn't expect the reasons to be explained in the decree statement issued at SSBC.
00:18:12
Speaker
So that would come actually through a press conference by the president or an address to the resident. And he had to explain to the South Sudanese why actually relieved the vice president. But yeah, oh that that is the manner in which most degrees are announced in South Sudan. They don't explain in depth the reason why an official is removed from office. yeah Right. I mean, that has always been the case.
00:18:37
Speaker
And my my assumption was that at least the spokesperson of the president would come out and provide at least an explanation as to why these individuals, four of them, have been relieved of their positions.
00:18:58
Speaker
Yeah, I think that should have been the case. um i But also, presidential press secretary, ah you know you know how the country operates back home. I mean, you you only work at the mercy of the president. I mean, if the president has not issued a statement to go and speak to the nation or release the nation, then who are you to just go and stand and then present reasons?
00:19:24
Speaker
I mean, it it doesn't really make any any sense to me. so um Yeah, you it's very true that the press secretary should have actually come out and and and explained that to to the country, maybe call a press conference, call all media houses, and they explain the reason behind the decrease, right?
00:19:42
Speaker
That should have been the case, but it didn't happen. or That could easily explain that maybe the president did not actually give ah go ahead to the press secretary to issue a statement regarding the decrees that were issued last night.
00:19:56
Speaker
And that, I don't really fall to the press secretary because majority of the people who work, if you work in the office of the president or if you work in the presidency itself or even in the ministries, majority of them work at the mercy of the president.
00:20:09
Speaker
And therefore, you have no power to do things of your own. Most of the time you do things that impresses the president. And if you say he's do this, that's what you do. And majority of them, they don't really want to risk their jobs.
00:20:24
Speaker
you know They just want to be loyal. That's what exactly ah maybe the press secretary didn't come out to give a statement in detail about the decrease that were issued last night.
00:20:35
Speaker
Yeah.
00:20:37
Speaker
and And I think that maybe because what why we can basically do, or at least what we are doing right now as citizens is we are speculating the reasons as to why a Bull Mel has been relieved of his duties to the extent in which it happened.
00:21:03
Speaker
and And like you've pointed to disloyalty as a as one reason. i also feel that maybe when you step back a little bit, could, for example, the UN n report that linked Balmel to around, I think, $1.7 billion public funds.
00:21:28
Speaker
of unaccounted public funds Oh, because also this guy has been sanctioned by the U.S. 2017, by the way, for alleged the corruption.
00:21:46
Speaker
So could it be an issue of, you know, corruption and maybe in the next few years, in the coming days and weeks and months, are we going to see maybe trial of Balmel or maybe at least any court proceedings or anything like that? Do you think we might get to see that as we are currently seeing with the first vice president?
00:22:11
Speaker
um Yeah, I read out that report that was issued by the UN Human Rights Commission, I think on South Sudan. um But um i like this is my own opinion. i i i don't really think um the reason behind...
00:22:30
Speaker
the dismissal of Mel is so much associated with the scandal. And I even read some news about how ah Mel and the guy, Lul Deng, I think the president of the the the Basketball Federation, I think there's a scandal of around 2-point-something billion US s dollars and and all this.
00:22:53
Speaker
But the I really don't think that there's anything that Mel did without the consent of the president. And if it is an issue of corruption, if it is an issue of scandals, I don't think that Mel will do that without the consent, because the basis on which they had a very good working relationship is on business issues.
00:23:16
Speaker
And whereas so many other people were also giving this as one of the reasons why he was... I, by the way, read it on on the media as that one being a reason of him being relieved.
00:23:28
Speaker
But also, if it is the reason, I think, that is a very good step, I would say. It is the reason. So, I mean, until the government comes out and gives us a very clear reason why the relief, I think we're only based on discussions on social media and and platforms like this based on the speculations.
00:23:45
Speaker
But there's no it clear reason stated by the government that this is the reason why Mel was dismissed. If it is disloyalty or it is because of the scandals and all kinds of stuff, there's no any legit reason that ah we are basing our discussion. But if it is the corruption thing is the reason why he's dismissed, I think it's a very, very positive step.
00:24:07
Speaker
And it it it's one step that, ah I mean, going to send out warning to those also getting ah maybe ones to be in this practice of of corruption in in the country.
00:24:21
Speaker
But yeah, if it is one, then that's that's an exciting and it's a positive move. But my own analysis, I feel that that is not the major reason why it's happening.
00:24:33
Speaker
Yeah. My personal view. Yeah. Right. Well, it's it's quite interesting, you know, what is unfolding in the country.
00:24:44
Speaker
it's um I feel that it's the first of its kind that a government official has been stripped of their duties to the nature of Balmel.
00:25:04
Speaker
I think it's the first of its kind. Oh, has it ever happened before? Oh, no, I really, i think Mel mels me is the first person who has actually gone through that, I would say.
00:25:17
Speaker
I mean, when he was when he was appointed ah from his position, you know, the the level at which he was promoted, i mean, it was so shocking to the entire country. and And people were seeing him as the only luckiest guy who might have imagined the political space in South Sudan.
00:25:32
Speaker
Because within a very short time, you The guy came from zero to the highest position, one of the most highest in the country. And I mean, stripping him all of those privileges, I think it's a very big accumulation. And I don't think there's anyone who has ever gone through what Mel went through.
00:25:51
Speaker
Very big humiliation. I mean, from Vice President, removed from Deputy Chairperson of the party, from the Army General to the National Security Service, and you met an ordinary citizen.
00:26:03
Speaker
Very humiliation. That's a very shocking and it's it's a humiliation to him. Yeah. Right. It's definitely a very humiliation experience.
00:26:15
Speaker
Definitely feels like a political takedown. and know. Yeah. yeah And how how do you think that the removal of Bolmel is going to reshape the internal dynamics of the SPLM party?
00:26:34
Speaker
As in, who stands to gain or maybe lose from his removal? um I think Kiri is a very, very, I think I always credit Kiri for this. I have observed him as one.
00:26:50
Speaker
I have always said that maybe Kiri is a very smart guy, or if he's not smart, he is actually being advised by very smart guys. You know, there are people who came into serving like in in in some of the ministries, and most of them were seen as people who were male allies.
00:27:14
Speaker
and And, you know, when Kir immediately returned from ah United Arab Emirates, of course, a few weeks ago, I think a week or two weeks ago or so, he when for a visit, I guess, like a work trip.
00:27:29
Speaker
five days' work visit to the United Arab Emirates. And when he came back from there, ah that is the following day, I think on Monday, that's when he started issuing this decrees. And what he started, there so many people claim that actually the guy is who he removed first.
00:27:44
Speaker
These are the people who are so much allied to Benjamin Bollman. I think it was ah like it is a kind of a... a well-planting where he starts by first taking off his allies and then ah then ultimately he comes to ball mail.
00:28:00
Speaker
But regarding ah who stands to win and lose, I really think Mel, I'm not seeing him coming back into the political space so easily.
00:28:11
Speaker
i mean it's it's it's It's a very, very big blow for him right now, politically for Benjamin Balmell, and given that he is under sanctions by the ah by the US Department of Treasury and Office of Foreign Asset Control,
00:28:26
Speaker
And I mean, it's a very big blow for him. But now the only people who might win in this male resupport, I'm suspecting two people here. One is that we're likely to see in the next few days, perhaps even tomorrow, we're likely to see another decree issued on SSBC regarding a replacement for male.
00:28:48
Speaker
And the two this is this is what I i i suspect one We may, we may likely see Kir appointing the daughter as so by the vice president of the economic cluster, Adut Salva, Kir Mayadin, is likely to be appointed.
00:29:10
Speaker
Or if not, Adut, we are likely to see Kir go back to his garbage bin and go and recycle iga. that that is That is what I have been suspecting because one, he wants someone who is very loyal to him.
00:29:25
Speaker
And one, James Wan-Iga over the years have mastered the art of being a loyal boy to to to the president. That's what I would say. He acts so cool.
00:29:37
Speaker
and And so many times he has always sacrificed his position for someone else. And that is that is the art that Kiel wants from an individual who wants to be close to him, someone that he does not see as a threat to his power.
00:29:53
Speaker
and and the person who stands that so much is eager. So he may go back and revisit this political garbage bin and then go recycle Jamie's one eager, bring him in, or because he feels so much insecure by having someone like the daughter, he might bring in the daughter, Adut Salpahir Mayadi, to serve in that position because if we are to go back,
00:30:16
Speaker
The positions that Mel was brought into the vice president was the one that is occupied by Adut Salpahir Mayeri, the advisory position, senior presidential envoy and special program.
00:30:28
Speaker
That was the position that Mel occupied prior to his appointment as the vice president of economic cluster. So we are likely to see these two happenings. One, Adut might stand a very high chance of becoming male's replacement, or Kir might go back into his political garbage bin and then recycle, either bring him back as the vice president economic cluster.
00:30:51
Speaker
Or else we might see a very, very, ah very complete, ah ah I mean, transformation in the presidency itself.
00:31:02
Speaker
ah We might also see the board coming in. ah Maybe Iga and Adud Sal-Fakir coming back. But the reason why I'm seeing only one of them coming is because the position that is currently held by Josephine Lagu will never be given to an SPLA person. It needs to go to member of the other opposition i mean South Sudan Opposition Alliance, and which is not supposed to be a position for SPLA. So just suspecting between Iga and Adud Sal-Fakir Mayardini.
00:31:33
Speaker
And so many people have always been seeing that Kale has been grooming the daughter actually to be his replacement. So there's likelihood of dude becoming the vice president, economic cluster, by tomorrow night or in the next few weeks. yeah And he stands at high chances of winning.
00:31:53
Speaker
Right. And I agree with you that most likely he might go and have James Eger restored as the vice president oh or maybe bring in the daughter or maybe completely a new face.
00:32:11
Speaker
But let's say if it so happens that actually Keir appoints Adut, his own daughter, as the vice president, what would that say?
00:32:23
Speaker
to South Sudanese and the world? i mean i i do see I mean, people will have nothing to say. that's That's the unfortunate thing about it. I mean, you'll you'll have nothing to say.
00:32:34
Speaker
But it is from there now you would see exactly his intention. You know? ah Keir appoints... I mean, he can appoint any person he wants and no one is going to say anything, right?
00:32:47
Speaker
No one is going to say anything. But... there you a do i think the only thing that she needs to do if she's given that chance is is to act in a kind of a different way.
00:32:59
Speaker
I a very different way. But also, i don't really think she would really deliver if she comes in in that position. The presidency is not done an experiment place where you bring someone from just from, i mean,
00:33:18
Speaker
nowhere and then you bring them one to test if they can do things that is a very very important positions that require experience that requires uh that requires you to be politically mature in handling issues of the country it's it's not just a simple space of of doing experiments and and and i i'm i wouldn't I would not i would not i mean be carried out by surprise if I see that she's appointed and she doesn't do anything because...
00:33:49
Speaker
She doesn't really have that much experience in in the politics. She just came in the other day into in two the positions she's appointed to. She's not even holding a cabinet position. She probably doesn't know ah how a cabinet i mean a cabinet operates or a ministry operates, leave alone the position of the vice presidents.
00:34:06
Speaker
So bringing dude to the position of vice president economic cluster, I think, will mean a disaster to the country. it's It's not just... it's not that She doesn't have a business business experience. And the position of the economic cluster, you are supervising so many ministries.
00:34:27
Speaker
There are over 10 ministries that fall under the economic cluster. We're talking about the ministry of... ah finance and economic planning, ministry of bridges, ministry of transport, ministry of wildlife tourism, all these ministries fall under, the ministry of investment, these are the ministries that fall under the economic cluster and they are supervised by the vice president economic cluster.
00:34:48
Speaker
Need someone who has the experience, need someone who has the network, need someone who understands how government operates and a dude lacks that. In totality, she lacks that. and And I mean, she is the daughter to the president. Yes.
00:35:04
Speaker
She has the high chances of occupying it. But how about the experience? how How about, I mean, she will never deliver. That's that's what I would say. Yes.
00:35:16
Speaker
But of course, he stands at the high chances of occupying that position because back home, it's not about the experience. It's about how your proximity to the person who occupies the highest position is what gives you the high chances of getting close to
Potential Replacements for Ball
00:35:30
Speaker
power. it's not about your experience or you your education level or how competent you are, but it is the proximity or how close you are to the person who occupies the highest position.
00:35:41
Speaker
And Adut Salpakir stands the high chances of becoming the vice president. yeah Right. And we still wait to see what will happen in the next few days, weeks and months.
00:35:58
Speaker
Yeah, but but it's clear if Kirill has a very good political advisors, I think he would be advised to bring back Iger. And if he if he if he brings back Iga, I think...
00:36:11
Speaker
um um I don't see anything bad in his... There's no going to be tensions within the presidency and kind of power rangers and all these. Because Iga is a very loyal guy. Everyone knows about that. He is a very cool guy. He plays that. And and perhaps...
00:36:28
Speaker
yeah he has the experience he served with kiel for so many years he served in that position before mel occupied it so he probably has the experience i know he might not be the best but they say if the best is not available then you have to use the available to be the best so he might be the only person close to the best who can occupy that position yeah with the magnitude of the reshuffle that we've seen last night ah
00:36:59
Speaker
what might the implications be for the broader political stability in South Sudan and the future of South Sudan? Should we, South Sudanese, be or should we be relieved?
Impact of Ball's Removal on Political Stability
00:37:15
Speaker
i I really don't think there is any danger in in in the removal of Vice President Mel from his position. I think he really doesn't pose any threat to the government.
00:37:26
Speaker
Because one this is a guy who just surfaced the other day into the political space. He has no basis. I mean, he has not established the political network. in I mean, he doesn't have support in the ground, even in his own county or his own state.
00:37:40
Speaker
He doesn't have followings. So I don't see the removal of Benjamin Bowman as a threat to the security of the country because who is he going to mobilize? How is he going to mobilize? He has no networks.
00:37:51
Speaker
If he had served in the liberation war, maybe like one of the generals, then that is when people should have the fear. But Mel doesn't have that capacity to stage any kind of maybe, um ah what did I say?
00:38:07
Speaker
um a kind of like a revenge against the president he doesn't have that capacity to do that because he does not have the network he doesn't have for the the the the the army is not so much a lie to him he is strip and that's what by the way the president is started by doing make sure that he is relieved and when you follow the degree the way how it was issued it was first uh the removal of him from being dismissed from the NSS and then did the army and then finally comes to the vice president that clearly it tells you that he was mean he was actually ah I mean all the privileges that were given to him were taken out so I don't see Mel posing a threat to the security of the country because he does not have the ground base
00:38:57
Speaker
He has never been down to us. doesn't have even any history of being a very prominent guy in the army. He just got promoted the other day into a full general.
00:39:08
Speaker
And he doesn't post any... I don't think there's any reason why people should get worried of Benjamin Bollman being a threat to the security of the country. It can only be a threat if maybe he um go and maybe ally with some of the guys who had the capacity and ah actually maybe defected there in the bush if he ally with them. But again, one of the strategies that Keira has been using of late is that when he...
00:39:38
Speaker
dismissed you from a position to make sure that you are detained within Dubois. You're not allowed to move anywhere. And I think that is the step next that is going to do to Mel as well. But even if he makes Mel move freely, still doesn't have the capacity to wait any revengeful ah move against President Kirill or the government of South Sudan.
00:39:56
Speaker
And they don't see him as a threat to the security of the country at all. Yeah. ah what about the fact that Balmel is one of the richest people in South Sudan and with that comes the capacity to be able to buy people?
00:40:18
Speaker
um he he he He's not going to do that. um i i I think that that that is that that is ah that is a good that's a good observation.
00:40:29
Speaker
but um you know the politics in our country operates a little bit different. The way how things operate in our country is not like the way how it operates in other countries like like Kenya.
00:40:41
Speaker
I mean, it's very hard for you to buy someone in South Sudan and then you want to... so you know Yesterday I watched a video of how um ah there's one guy who made very frequent videos about the political city western in the country. And then he said, actually before the decree was issued today, last night I watched the video and then he was explaining that the reason why actually Mel might likely be dismissed tomorrow is because of...
00:41:09
Speaker
um There's this thing that Mel got involved in where there is one person who works but ah for the president as a witch doctor, a person who foresees the future of the president.
00:41:23
Speaker
And Mel went and bought this person. And this person was supposed to create some kind of confusion within the presidency. so care would and And I heard that he paid a huge money to this person.
00:41:35
Speaker
But this person went back and and told the presidents about all the plan. And that's the reason why there's a kind of tensions between ah the president and male. So I feel... um The political operations in our country, it's ah it's a kind of a different that so many people are so much allied to someone that comes from their place and they really don't consider the issue of money as a very important thing.
00:41:58
Speaker
You can give someone money, but they still go back to that person and tell you that this is the thing that they are plotting against is you. So whereas you might have the financial capacity, but I don't think, I mean, what are you going to do with the money?
00:42:11
Speaker
ah you're going to you you know the The money you have are not arms. That's one thing. The money you have is an old soldier that you need to ah to be a threat to a country. To be a threat to a country, you need to have a huge following.
00:42:26
Speaker
You need to have a military ah capability. You need to have, ah i mean, the mobilization ah ability, mobilize people across the country, make them train, buy for them all these things. And one thing is that he is one guy whose assets are actually frozen in the United States, and he is under sanction. So,
00:42:46
Speaker
I don't think there is anything he can do outside the country. It's very hard because the majority of the coordinations that if one person wants to do in the politics of a country is when you have very high connection with the United States of America.
00:42:59
Speaker
So once you have issues with the U.S., I think you have less chances of succeeding in any plot that you want to... but perform against an establishment in any country. And I think that is one thing that will work against Mel.
00:43:11
Speaker
Because one, he has issues with the United States. is under sanctions. Even if an navy he has the money, he will not have the ability to mobilize across the country. will not have the network. He is is stripped of all the powers that he had. And therefore, he will not have that capacity to mobilize people against the president, and against the government of South Sudan, and against the people of South Sudan. He might have the financial muscle, but That money alone is not enough to bring people, to motivate them to get weapons. I mean, were you going to get the weapons in the first place?
00:43:45
Speaker
Where are you going to get it? For you to have weapons, you need weapons that might need to come through ah Uganda or come through Kenya ah before it see it it it lands in South Sudan. And Kenya and South Sudan, these very good friends of Sa'al Fakir Mayadi, they have a very good working relationship.
00:44:02
Speaker
Probably they might not allow something like that happen. And therefore, I don't see him posing a threat to the country at all. Yeah. That is very interesting. ah Something you said.
00:44:16
Speaker
ah So we we do have witch doctor or a fortune teller in J1 that foresees and predicts what is likely to happen within the presidency?
00:44:32
Speaker
ah that That's... that that's What I heard is from that video, and but I don't really want to to treat it as a statement of fact because i there's no any legit evidence that really tells us we do have someone like that sitting at j one telling Kate about his future.
00:44:50
Speaker
But according to the video I watched, that's what the guy said, there's someone who sits at J1 and tells Kate of his future. political future knows when exactly his political career will come to an end and what steps are threat to his presidency and who are the threat to his presidency. That person keeps telling Keir about all this.
00:45:12
Speaker
yeah Could this witch doctor have told Salva Kir that Balmel is a threat to his leadership?
00:45:25
Speaker
I think ah the the kind of... According to what that guy said, he said that... um ah Mel tried to create some confusion between Kir and the daughter, where ah I think ah because he felt like since the daughter of Kir was appointed to that position, she has become ah ah suddenly so powerful. And then her presence is on the media and everywhere, is it's a facing that of Mel. And that's what he didn't really want.
00:45:53
Speaker
And then I think Mel allegedly, he was he told the witch doctor to create that kind of confusion and distrust between Keir and the daughter, and even said that the reason why Keir traveled to United Arab Emirates last time was to have a ah kind of reconciliation meeting and a like sit down with the family and the daughter and sit trace out what exactly came.
00:46:17
Speaker
And even say there was a time when when this confusion came, the daughter actually wanted to resign. She wrote a resign resignation letter and then she was like, I don't want to be seen as a reason maybe for my father ah father's failure in the presidency. And then she took the letter to the to the to the uncles or the relatives and the relatives rejected it and i know there's a kind of this i looked at that guy like as a conspiracy theorist and uh i really didn't take much of what he said so serious ah because there's no and this is not the first time i heard about the presence of that person with j1 but i don't want to say it's a factual information because there's no relevant evidence about that right
00:46:59
Speaker
And as they say, there's no smoke but without without fire. Could it be true that there is actually a fortune teller at J1?
Ball's Future: Business or Politics?
00:47:07
Speaker
It could be true. It could be true.
00:47:10
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. Right. I mean, ah given the total loss of political and military power, what do you foresee for Balmel personally and politically in the coming months?
00:47:29
Speaker
um Politically, I don't see him re-emerging into the political space because um if he wants to do that, he needs to maybe come through a process which he he he might do that but not in the next few months or so if he wants to do that if has interest still in politics then he has to go down to the grounds and maybe convince people so next time we have an election so he can buy and become something but um
00:48:00
Speaker
Yes, he's his political i think oh ambitions at the moment are crushed and he really has nothing to water them ah to to water them and then maybe at some point re-marge. Maybe at some point when we have an election in the country and he wants to buy, he can it can maybe re-marge through that process.
00:48:23
Speaker
But the not through the usual process of appointment and all this kind of stuff. I don't think he will ever re-marge into the political landscape of the country.
00:48:34
Speaker
And what he needs to do maybe is one, he goes back and ventures into his businesses. That's what he can do. and and But again, one thing is that I think if you have lost trust of the president, so many people were attributing all the businesses that he was running to the support of the president.
00:48:50
Speaker
But I think if you have actually hurt the president in the way he might have done, then I think he might also be i striped up of the the support that the president might my maybe was giving him in terms of the running the businesses.
00:49:05
Speaker
So, um yeah, but it's it's very normal that someone of each of his caliber can easily come from the position he was holding to completely an ordinary citizen. So he might accept, he needs to accept that fact and that reality and maybe just join the street as the majority of the South Sudanese as well.
00:49:26
Speaker
And also understand that that is the nature of politics. Yeah. Right. So, Emmanuel, is there a lesson to be learned from this experience of Balmell, right from how he quickly rose ah to how also he quickly fell, especially for the presidency?
00:49:52
Speaker
Is there a lesson to be learned? So many lessons, Patrick. One is that, um as I said before, that, you know, It is good to always understand the nature of um the the the space that you're working you're walking in.
00:50:12
Speaker
right It's very, very important. And I mentioned this at the start, that um if you are someone in in india in the caliber of a bold male who has seen the favor of the president over the past few months,
00:50:28
Speaker
that Even at some point when there are so many seasoned politicians, military politicians within the army, but the president is still went and just placed his blessing on you and then tried to pick you.
00:50:42
Speaker
And even went on and sacrificed one of the veteran military persons who fought so much in the liberation in the name the names of James Waniga just to give you that place.
00:50:53
Speaker
And you know that you were given that privilege by such a person. you so you should understand that the the circumstances or the landscape in which you're operating. This is a country which does not really have a very permanent and full constitution where the positions that you're serving in are protected and by the law and that when you're serving in those positions, there is no one who poses a threat to what that position and maybe gets you removed out.
00:51:22
Speaker
When you serve in this position, you're serving at the mercy of the person who appointed you and that when you serve in this position, you must always possess some level of loyalty.
00:51:32
Speaker
That is one thing, a lesson that people must learn. You must always be loyal. There's one book called The 48 Laws of Power written by Robert Greene. And one of the first laws of power is that you should never outshine your master.
00:51:47
Speaker
You should never outsmart them. Do not pose a threat to their well-being and they shouldn't look at you as a threat and look at you and become insecure in where you're operating.
00:51:59
Speaker
And then that is what Mel failed to exhibit. He made President Kirin secure throughout by his dealings, by his conduct, And i thought that's what so many people need to do. It's not only in politics.
00:52:11
Speaker
It is wherever you operate. It could be in your businesses, could be in your in your workspace or everywhere you're operating. Do not always try to outshine the master. And that if you do have ambitions that are overwhelming, you should always learn the art of secrecy.
00:52:29
Speaker
Do things underground that no one spots it out so quickly. Often, like the persons above you should never get to know about what you're planning. If you do have plans against him, if you have ambitions of maybe replacing him or taking over his position, always learn the art of secrecy. Do them in secret, do them underground, and no one should know about them.
00:52:53
Speaker
Because the moment they know about it, then they will strap you off all your privileges, just like what they did to Benjamin Ball Mell. And that was very, very important lesson. ah some people would say that great masters or teachers would always want to see their students become better than them as the masters.
00:53:20
Speaker
Is there a lesson to be learned here by the president himself? Because I think so many people online say that the nature in which bold male was selected in the first place, showed favoritism.
00:53:40
Speaker
As in he did not have the qualification and portfolio to really ah take on the office he was given.
00:53:53
Speaker
But even as as the darling of the president, in a short time, we've seen a fallout between Salva Kir and Balmer.
00:54:04
Speaker
Is there a lesson that maybe the president himself could learn from this experience? I think ah one biggest lesson that ah the president also needs to learn is that, you know, um it's it's always good to be on the lookout about the people that walk around with you.
00:54:23
Speaker
I mean, In politics, it always suggests that you surround yourself with the people that you trust most. That is what happens everywhere around the world. you know The nature of ah politics is that once you become a head of state, once you become a president of a country, you always wonder to associate yourself with people that have been supporting you, people that want to promote your agenda, people that if you are a president who is corrupt, you want to associate yourself with people are corrupt, you have an intention of delivering to the country, you associate yourself with people that
00:54:59
Speaker
have that intentions in mind. And that's why when people get elected as president, they go and look at their surroundings, their friends, their network, and they look and appoint ministers to serve in those cabinets.
00:55:11
Speaker
And then what kids should learn is that um it's hard. don't do not In politics, you should not trust anyone. You should not trust. in in in In politics,
00:55:23
Speaker
There is no friendship in politics. And that whenever you get into the political space, you lost some kind of i feel like you lose some kind of sense in you.
00:55:37
Speaker
And you become like a monster. that That's what I would call You become monster. You become envious. You become ambitious. And that within a very short time, because of the power that is given to you,
00:55:50
Speaker
You want to claim that you are in control of everything. And I think that kids should always be very careful in how you groom people to be around you because it seems to have created and a mountain out of an anti-hill and that he now has to deal with it. He has to climb to the other side of it.
00:56:11
Speaker
That is what exactly what happened to him with Bollemail, that a guy from nowhere, he made him so powerful within a very short time that at some point he had to deal with it. That is what he should learn, that in the next time he should always Give people the face. I mean, make the promotion, but give them the faces.
00:56:31
Speaker
Give them a position at a time. Learn how they act, how they act in this position before you give them the full force or the full powers. Otherwise, if you continue to do this, the next time he might bring in someone who would not be of the caliber of male, but one that is experienced and i can actually make his political career come to an end and his presidency within a very small time.
00:56:59
Speaker
That is what he should always learn from this this whole story. that Do not trust anyone in politics and give people some faces before bringing them into ah the limelight.
00:57:10
Speaker
I mean, learn about them, give them the time, train them at some point. You don't just have to bring people from nowhere to a very high position. yeah Right.
00:57:22
Speaker
That's very interesting. You know, um I think right now for for for most citizens, so that's done we are all trying to wrap our mind around this dramatic moment and how Bolmel has fallen from a grace to grace.
00:57:46
Speaker
And I'm just wondering, like for you, what are the key takeaways from this fallout, especially for South Sudanese citizens who are still trying to really you know understand what exactly has happened here?
00:58:04
Speaker
I and really think... um ah for many South Sudanese regarding what has happened, I mean, that is a very, very normal thing in in and in politics. I mean, ah that happens every time. The only difference with our country is that the frequency at which this thing happens is it's so...
00:58:26
Speaker
it's so extraordinary. I mean, it happens so often compared to other countries. Things to do with resuppos happens every time, and across the world, even in the most democratic countries, resuppos happens.
00:58:39
Speaker
And of the fallout between the president, and by the way, there are so many people who were celebrating when they had the news about the removal of the vice president. and day I saw a video of people celebrating, dancing, and all this And they were like, oh, finally Salva Kiir has heard the prayers and and the cries of the people.
00:58:58
Speaker
But I think what people need to understand deep this is so deep that apart from just appointment, there is something so deep that this kind of frequent reciprocity and hiring
Impact of Political Reshuffles on Development
00:59:09
Speaker
and firing, recycling affects the lives of the citizens itself.
00:59:15
Speaker
as As we had from our preliminary discussions, I mean, before we get into this, I told you that, are you know, when we have this kind of result that happens so often where we have ah members of the cabinet taken out and new people brought in, it really becomes so hard for a country such as New South Sudan to develop systems, you know.
00:59:36
Speaker
It becomes so hard for the same country to develop, I mean, like, a development plan for each ministry. What do you want to see your ministry as achieve in the next 20, 30 years?
00:59:47
Speaker
It becomes so hard. This only happens when we have a stable cabinet, when we have these stable ministers who learn how things operate in the ministries, who lays down programs. lays down and draft policies and they implement them follow them in phases and until it is implemented but when we keep changing people we have systems that are not developed systems that are very weak and the ultimate person who suffers are the common people down there because there are no system that can easily take services down to them last time we had just a few weeks ago or a few months ago
01:00:23
Speaker
the bank The central bank of South Sudan developed a financial architecture called the instant payment system, over the interbank payment system, where all the banks operating in South Sudan would be connected. And then i mean it becomes so easy for the government to do transactions to people, to employees and and people paying taxes.
01:00:44
Speaker
It was a very great idea, though there were some loopfalls, but it was a very great move, established by one great person who just got dismissed last night called Addis Ababa, the governor of the Central Bank of South Sudan.
01:00:55
Speaker
So when we have people like this who have good intentions for a country, who develop such systems, which should have been given much attention, and they should have been given more chances to actually, read I mean, to to to in detail implement it and make it coming to fruition. So when we have such people taken out and new people brought in, i mean, we have problem of developing our system. So that is the greatest problem that we might we we need to see as citizens. I mean, so don't just look at these results and get excited over it because I have a cousin, I have an uncle, I have an auntie who get appointed to this position. But what is the impact of this?
01:01:33
Speaker
dismissals and reappointment and appointment in real sense. The ultimate impact of it gets down to the common people of the country and these are the South Sudanese who get affected. And I think this is what we should always look at. It's it's not about who get appointed.
01:01:49
Speaker
It's about how impactful these results are going to be on us as the common people on the ground. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. And definitely they have a significant impact.
01:02:03
Speaker
um impacting you know our political, social and economic lives significant ways. And and speaking of the impact, um how how do you think the fallout between Kir and Bolmel might affect South Sudan's business climate, international reputation and even relationships with donors and allies?
01:02:30
Speaker
And you you know you've spoken to
01:02:34
Speaker
someone like Addis Ababa, who is a very close ally of Balmel, and he's been dismissed too. And I read online, some people were like, you know what, it is only fair that they were dismissed together to alleged cases of corruption and and stuff like that.
01:02:58
Speaker
I think the the impact, you know, every time Kail issues a decree and removes someone out from the position, it sends out a message to the international community and the investors out there that there is political instability in the country.
01:03:15
Speaker
And they know, you know, taking it back to 2013 on how the murder of Resafos or cabinet Resafo happened in 2013 where Kir dismissed the vice president, Dr Machar.
01:03:27
Speaker
That is the genesis of the whole mess that the country is going on today. So every time Kir dismisses a general in the army, a minister, a vice president, then it sends out a message to the international community and the donors that there is a possibility of these guys defecting, going to the booth and fighting back the government.
01:03:45
Speaker
And this affects so many services that comes to the people. These international communities, me some of them close their embassies and they go back because they fear that their employees or their workers might be affected by war. Even investors who have interest of coming to invest in this country, they know clearly that there is no political instability. And if there is no political instability in the country, there is no one who is interested in investing in that country.
01:04:12
Speaker
So I think these frequent results, including the one that happened last night, only adds on the level of worry to the international community about the kind of instability that might emerge in the next few months.
01:04:25
Speaker
And it chases all these investors who might have the interest to come to South China and investors where it actually makes them lose interest in coming to the country. And at the end of the country, when we, at the end of the time, I mean, at the end, if we don't have a country with a very good economy that investors they are attracted to coming, in the ultimate results would always be one that impacts on the common people.
01:04:49
Speaker
And I think that is it. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. ah So now maybe be zooming out a little bit to looking at what might happen in the next three to six months following, you know, these dismissals.
01:05:11
Speaker
What should we look out for as the public or as South Sudan citizens ah with regard to where, you know, the political winds are blowing?
01:05:22
Speaker
Yeah, I think one one thing we should look at, one, is that um we might see this dismissal that happened last night. It might change some kind of stuff on the ongoing trial of Machar.
01:05:33
Speaker
So we are likely to see a kind of shift, the kind of change in the current trial that is going to my Because there are so many people who attach Benjamin Balmel to the ongoing trial. trial for Machairi has been seen as one of the champions, one of the guys who pushed for this trial to happen.
01:05:48
Speaker
so one of the things that maybe we should look at is that we are likely to see a shift in how the trial is going to end or how it's going to run or the end results of it or the verdict that is going to be issued by the court probably might reflect i mean the results of what happened last night. So This is what we ah should be on the lookout.
01:06:12
Speaker
But also, as I said before, we are likely to see new faces coming out maybe tomorrow or and the new in the next few weeks on the presidency. So i'll be likely to see a new vice president coming in into the presidency. And that, as I said, could be the president or ah James Wan-e-Iga. These are some few things that should get to look out.
01:06:37
Speaker
Right. Amazing.
Reshuffles as Power Strategy
01:06:39
Speaker
Any final thoughts as we wrap up? um I mean, final thoughts to South Sudanese. I think ah there's no reason to panic. These are things that happen often in any by any government. These are things that happen. Only the difference is that ours happens so frequently.
01:06:59
Speaker
And it's because of ah how Kidd wants to actually try to extend his political lifespan. That's the reason why he's using it so frequently. But it's it's a kind of normal thing that happens in every government, that people get to be removed and new faces brought in in any government.
01:07:16
Speaker
So what happened last night is not exceptional. It's it's a very... It's a very, very common practice in politics that happens across the world. And that if you are one person who tried to sabotage the plan of a president, if you're someone who posed a threat to him and he wants to be disloyal,
01:07:34
Speaker
That's obviously what do you face. You face the wrath of his power. And that's what exactly happened last night to Dr. Benjamin Balmel from the presidency, or from the president of the Republic of South Sudan, Salafakir Mayarit. Yeah.
01:07:49
Speaker
It's a very common practice in politics. And one thing you must know is that politics... is always rootless. There's nothing to be... you In politics, you are not in daycare where you need to be babysitter. There's nothing about that.
01:08:04
Speaker
Politics is always rootless. Politics is always a game of monster. Politics is always an evil game. And if you desire to be in politics, you must be ready to face all the bad things that comes along with it.
01:08:18
Speaker
And yeah, that is politics. So following up on what you just said is that these frequent dismissals that we are seeing are basically an effort for an effort by the president, Kir, to consolidate power and hold onto power.
01:08:46
Speaker
i i Yeah, I rightly think so because, um you know, Here is one guy who is a system is a seasoned military person.
01:08:59
Speaker
He learned through the liberation time of how impactful an army is. He knows how alliances, when built,
01:09:12
Speaker
can easily crush down establishments. He learned how in 2021, or even in before that, when ah how the government of Omar Hassan and Bashir was brought down by an army general who was serving in the Sudan armed forces and later turned again as the president and brought him down.
01:09:32
Speaker
He might have learned a lesson from how Milton Obote of Uganda ah was brought down by President Museveni. learned a history of how Dr. Kwame Okuruma was brought down by a guy who served him as a very close person.
01:09:46
Speaker
He understands very well that in a country such as South Sudan, power sometimes does not only sit with the presidency. It sits in the army barracks with the generals. It sits with these cabinet members who sometimes pretends to be your close ally, and that if you don't try to, if you try to give them the freedom and the time, in a country like South Sudan, where people, there's a kind of confusion within the the the political elite itself, where people have ah loyalties paid to different people. So if you don't, if you try to keep some kind of stability in the cabinet or in the military, then you are giving yourself a time for these guys to develop a network and then
01:10:28
Speaker
try to topple your government. So I think what he is doing is that by issuing these frequent reservors and cabinet and sacking and rehiring is that he is trying to destroy some potential plots that might be coming against his government. And I think that is what exactly he is doing.
01:10:45
Speaker
And i think I'm giving it to him. This is what exactly he is doing. He's trying to break this potential, ah maybe plots that might be planned by these generals. That's why in less than one year, we have seen more than three chief of defense forces.
01:10:59
Speaker
You know the mighty that this guy is of. They have the ability to crush down establishment, governments, arrest them, bring them down. And that's what he is doing exactly. Yeah. to make sure he keeps only those who are loyal him. Not necessarily those who loyal. You can bring in someone who is not loyal to you, but that you don't just have to give them enough time to maybe plan something against to you.
01:11:24
Speaker
In the process, you make them short so that when they are planning it, you distract them, and take out the powers from them so they know oh this has finally... is not going to come into reality because it's crashed down in the process.
01:11:37
Speaker
So I think that is what he is doing. And that's what he has been doing. And I think that is what he will continue to do. yeah And the moment you see Kiel gives, i mean, i was I wrote something about this, that by the time Kiel gives like one year without doing any cabinet resupport or any resupport in the military,
01:11:57
Speaker
you will soon see his government taken to an ICU. It will never survive. His government will definitely come to an end. but You can easily see the dissatisfaction of the people, the political elite.
01:12:10
Speaker
You can see the dissatisfaction of the army. This is an army that is not paid for many months. not fed their families are going through so much, then coupled with a population that is really dissatisfied, like the one in South Sudan.
01:12:26
Speaker
So when you let all these factors to come together and network and give them these people to be led by a wrong person at the right time. So The government can easily come to an end in a blink of an eye in a very short time if you're not serious.
01:12:41
Speaker
And I think he understands the mighty of the military. That's why he doesn't want to give them that peace to mobilize, to build network and alliances that might pose a threat to his government.
01:12:52
Speaker
yeah Interesting. And also um there is this conspiracy ah online that ah you see right now ah the South Sudanese soldiers haven't been paid ah for some even close to now a year They haven't received any money or salary.
01:13:19
Speaker
And yet their salaries are like about $10. And this conspiracy that when Balmel took office, he brought in the UPDF, who are paid $500 month.
01:13:39
Speaker
Right. I also read that. I read about that. um But yeah, that's does does know that it's not strange. I mean, it's possible. That could be true.
01:13:51
Speaker
and and And I think the reason is one that um um the reason why that might be true is because one, Mel, together with Keele, we are trying to defend...
01:14:03
Speaker
When we look at the situation under which the UPDF was brought in South Sudan was when there was an issue happening in the northern parts of the country in Nasir where we had the armed militia group in the name of the White Army wanted to engage the government in some kind of ah of war.
01:14:20
Speaker
So, um you know, this is a country that has an army that is not motivated. This is a country that is and um under sanctions, arms embargo, so you don't have the ability to go and purchase arms, to give to the army to go and fight this armed militia group who might be posing a threat to your government.
01:14:41
Speaker
So what are you left to with? You're left with no option but to go and import an army, a foreign army, to come and defend your government. And the cost that comes with that, you're ready to always bear it.
01:14:52
Speaker
And I think that is what they were ready to do, to defend their government, pay much money, as demanded by Muhosi or President Museveni to their soldiers, but ah the assurance that they are going to protect their government. And that that that happens. that That is not a surprise. That can easily happen given that the army of the country is, I would say, it's ill-training. mean, it's incapable of handling an internal militia group in the names of White Army. That clearly tells us how weak the army is.
01:15:25
Speaker
And when you have a weak army, of course, that cannot defend your government. You're left with no options but to go and import one that can easily protect your government. And that's why they went for the UPTF, I guess.
01:15:37
Speaker
Wow, there's a lot happening in South Sudan. Right. So much. Yeah, so much. Right. And honestly, and I think that what we can do at the moment is just keep monitoring right ah what developments.
01:15:53
Speaker
Exactly. will There's always story. Always, every new week, I mean, comes with a new story. Things are evolving every day, yeah. Absolutely. Right. Yeah. Well, thank you so much, Emmanuel Taban, for your insights.
01:16:07
Speaker
No problem. Really appreciate it. Thanks. ah thanks Yeah. And listeners and viewers, thank you so much for tuning in. um If you liked this episode, please subscribe, share, and leave your thoughts.
01:16:20
Speaker
Until next time, bye-bye and take care. Bye.