Transcript
John Gartside: Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast. Today you join us for a very exciting episode as we are joined by a fellow politics enthusiast but also far more of a politics expert we must say than either me or Diane.
Dejan: Today we're here with our good friend Daniel, a favourite both of ours and of the sort of channel in the community as a whole. Daniel is our sort of go-to political analyst when it comes to UK and international news.
Dejan: And today we'll be discussing Starmer's first year in office and any new developments in the world of British politics as well. But before we get going, Daniel, can just give our viewers a quick overview of the last year?
Dejan: How did start? How did it go? highlights? Any lowlights?
Daniel: Of course. Well, first, thank you, John and Diane, for having me. Always a pleasure to be on. So exactly just over a year ago, July 4th, Labour wins what was called at first a landslide election, winning almost two thirds of the seats in the House of Commons, but with only 33 percent of the popular vote.
Daniel: And we'll talk about that later as maybe that wasn't really a landslide after all. So Labour arrives, they describe financially what they call a £20 billion black hole in the public finances.
Daniel: And their goal since then in this year been to try to resolve this black hole. The main issue was that they promised that they wouldn't raise any major taxes.
Daniel: And so this naturally meant that they would have to go and look at what What can we cut, basically? And the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, decided that one of the main areas to do that would be welfare, for example.
Daniel: But this received a lot of backlash in the country, in the public and in the Labour Party, which has meant recently that she had to U-turn on a number of these decisions.
John Gartside: Daniel, could you perhaps provide a bit of further insight into what actually happened with these welfare reforms? I'm sure many of our listeners saw it dominate the news headlines, but why was this so controversial?
Daniel: It was so controversial because they were seen as targeting perhaps the most vulnerable group in society, which was the pensioners. So the pensioners have been using what's called the winter fuel payment to subsidise their energy costs, which had been particularly severe after the war in Ukraine and Donald Trump's tariffs.
Daniel: So prospect that those would be reversed was deeply controversial, as you said, and naturally caused quite of of a lot of backlash in the Labour Party, which was really in part founded really to try and help support the weakest in society.
Daniel: So it was very poor publicity and naturally they wanted to receive strong opposition in the Labour Party.
Dejan: I want to go back just to the start last year, July 4th. You were saying that they only got 33% of the vote, but a landslide majority in the House Parliament.
Daniel: Yes.
Dejan: Can we go a bit deeper into that? And can you sort of explain why that might not be the case in the next election, why that still might be the case? How did this sort of first-class-the-poll system enable that to happen?
Dejan: And do you see any changes coming up?
Daniel: Yes, well, I think the problem lies in the fact that first-past-the-post is essentially, think, incapable of dealing with an election where you have so many parties with not really sufficient number of votes.
Daniel: I mean, traditionally, 33% of the vote, which is what Labour got, would not be considered sufficient to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons. And indeed, Jeremy Corbyn won an equal to or larger proportion of the votes in 2017 and 2019, but both times lost the election. So talking about next time, think we might see a similar situation repeat in 2024, where the vote on the right was essentially split between reform and Conservative.
Daniel: And that meant the Labour was able to ease in fairly to dozens of constituencies across the country by very small voters, often like around 200, that kind of thing.
John Gartside: Daniel, you just mentioned there about this right-wing votes being split. And that is something that I think Farage sort of, in a way, sort of enjoyed, and as a matter of fact, perhaps, to sort of weaken the Conservatives.
John Gartside: However, recent developments in the news and amidst the left-wing in the UK have shown that there's a possibility, and I think actually likelihood, that Jeremy Corbyn and Zahra Sultana will form a new sort of breakaway socialist left-wing party.
John Gartside: What threat do think this poses to Labour?
Daniel: I think that it could pose a significant threat, but I think it depends whether Jeremy Corbyn, I suppose the insinuation basically here is that Jeremy Corbyn might be able to do what Nigel Farage has done to the Conservative Party, which is basically to split it off the more, I wouldn't say radical, but the more of
Dejan: Hardliners.
Daniel: Yes, the more hardline, more ideological elements of the part of the conservative movement. He moved that to reform. That's what Naira Farage did. So there's a possibility Jeremy Corbyn would do the same with the Labour Party and that the old socialists, they called this sort of momentum movement.
Daniel: that these people in this momentum movement might move towards Jeremy Corbyn's party. I've heard it say that that could make Labour lose about 30% of its vote share.
Daniel: On the extreme end, we'll have to see whether they can mimic what reform has done for the Tories. But that'd be the worst case scenario for Labour, I think.
Dejan: So if that does happen and we have four parties with a, you know, decently split equal share of the votes, I think this is the big question that we've definitely been asking, John, to our guests for the last year.
John Gartside: Yeah.
Dejan: Are we going to see a reformed Conservative coalition the next election? Do you think Jeremy Corbyn's party enables that coalition? Do you think it sort of forces the Tories, it backs them into a wall basically saying we need to couple up a reform?
Dejan: Or do you think it actually helps the Conservative Party be a bit more independent of reform?
Daniel: I think that it would help the Tories be able to see themselves as more independent of the form. Because I think from a Conservative point of view, this is probably the best news they've heard all year, and that the possibility that Labour's support might be fractured to the similar extent that the Conservative support has been fractured, they think might actually be good for them.
John Gartside: Thank you.
Daniel: They might be able to edge through in a number of these constituencies where Labour was able to just slip through because of the vote split between the Tories and reform. So if the same was happen with Labour and the Socialist Party,
Daniel: And then when you consider that their vote might also be split between Lib Dems and the Greens, then I think that would probably be the hope of the Conservatives, to be honest.
Dejan: John, what do you think?
John Gartside: Yeah, I'll say I agree with you there, Daniel. I think the Tories will have a sort of optimistic outlook on it because it does split Labour's vote. Corbyn's new party will attract these more ideological, hardline, socialist members of the Labour Party.
John Gartside: And also this sort of large pro-Palestine faction that exists. We can see that there are protests currently erupting in the UK surrounding this.
Daniel: Yeah.
John Gartside: And I think Corbyn... has always actually been a very popular politician amidst a certain group. He's always had a a group which sort of look up to him in the same way that people on the far right look up to Farage.
John Gartside: And I think in certain Labour seats, especially those with a sort of larger, sort of ideological hardline left perspective, Corbyn and Zahra Sultana's new party could pose a real threat to Labour.
John Gartside: But it's literally almost a mirror image of Farage on the right, as you said there, Daniel. They're splitting the votes.
Daniel: Yes.
John Gartside: Perhaps it will help Farage, a splitted Labour vote, sort of transition into gaining more seats in Parliament at the next election. And I think it would. I think it will help him.
John Gartside: But I think the Tories will like it, but then the Tories will also notice that it helps Farage. And it will help Farage attract more votes and more seats by splitting this vote.
Dejan: Well, I
John Gartside: And actually, perhaps to mention, we can talk about this as well, Daniel, and it's the Green Party.
John Gartside: They're apparently ah ah pretty dismal at the moment regarding this sort of socialist party that Corbyn may perform. What are your opinions on them and their future in UK politics?
Daniel: Well, it's interesting that we're discussing the Greens because there was a kind of theory going around, i suppose, a few years ago, that climate change would basically mean that the Greens could end up being one of the largest parties and that Green parties around the world would rise.
Daniel: We just haven't seen that at all. And even though... I think they won about two million votes actually in the general election, which was about a fair showing for the Greens. But I do think their base does overlap with what we might describe as this Corbyn, Corbyn-like, possible socialist party that might arise.
Daniel: And so I think... supporters of the Greens really if they want a chance to actually implement their policies they would be wise to switch their allegiance to the Corbyn sort party because I think he is more of a rallying figure for the left as opposed to these figures in the Green party that no one's really heard of like Carla Denia and I can't remember what the co-leaders called they're that irrelevant so that's what I would say that would be my advice to the Greens
Dejan: Well, i have to I have to agree with you on that point because, and we've discussed this previously on episode 8, Ian, there politics about being popular.
Daniel: oh
Dejan: And the Greens at the moment, they're not popular as an organisation, but they also don't have any leaders who have the potential to be popular.
John Gartside: Yeah.
Daniel: Yes. Yes.
Dejan: They don't have that sort of electric figure who can grab votes from different parties, different regions. And Corbyn does have that. We can disagree with his policies, we can agree with his policies, we can agree with him as a person, disagree with him as a person. But what is undeniable about him is that he has this effect of being able to grab votes.
Dejan: He has the capacity of being able to look around the country and get votes from people. I want to to challenge, though, a previous comment that both of you made, which is that this Corbyn Party actually helps the Tories.
Daniel: Okay.
Dejan: I think it doesn't. I think it deeply hurts them. Because now... With sort of farage and reform rising in the local elections, we've seen a couple more wins.
Dejan: I think the split in the next general election will be roughly equal among Labour and the Conservatives, with reform also being there and Jeremy Corbyn's party being there.
Dejan: I think this actually means that the Tories will be forced into a coalition against their will. Because this would be a shot at government for them, potentially, if Farage does well.
Dejan: And I don't see them partnering up with anyone else apart from reform.
John Gartside: Yeah.
Dejan: So in the case that we get, which I think is quite probable, that no one has a majority of seats.
Daniel: Yeah.
Dejan: If that happens, the Tories will be backed into a coalition reform. I don't see Labour necessarily partnering up Jeremy Corbyn. I think their relationship is a bit strained.
Dejan: I definitely see the other side happening more.
Daniel: Well, it's interesting you say that because I would say that the relationship between the Tories and reform is far more strained, considering that reform essentially destroyed the Conservative vote in the last election and probably will the next one.
Daniel: Like if you consider that in 2024, reform got 14% of the vote, Tories got 23%. If you were to add reform's tally to the Tories' tally, then the Tories get more votes in 2024 than Labour.
Daniel: which completely undermines the whole idea that the Conservatives are deeply unpopular by 2024.
Dejan: Yeah.
Daniel: So think, in a sense, I do agree with you in that I think there will have to be some kind of coalition between some parties next election, because I can't see how first-past-the-post will, unless, of course, first-past-the-post somehow just allots majority, because it can sort of happen.
Daniel: almost accidentally, where parties have received an almost equal amount of votes in a constituency and one of them just manages to take it. And if that happens across the board, then you can end up in absurd situations where a party with a very small amount of the vote gets a lot more seats, as Labour have done in 2024. So that's the question as to whether that will repeat again and in 2029.
Daniel: I personally don't think it will, especially when you consider the rise of reform and possibly the rise of the Socialist Party.
John Gartside: I agree with you there, Daniel, as well.
Dejan: Ciao.
John Gartside: I think, and I think the biggest obstacle actually in many ways to a Tory reform coalition is whether Farage wants it, because he may not need it, simply because Reform UK, as we saw in the 2024 election, they were hugely popular across the nation.
John Gartside: And I actually think that will only grow purely because, in my opinion, the Conservatives aren't under the strongest leadership of Kemi Baden-Ok. She made all these slip ups at the start when she just became leader and she's still not provided any policies.
John Gartside: On the other hand, whether you like them or not, Farage has got some clear policy, some clear ideas. Whether they can actually be implemented in government is ah ah another completely different question.
John Gartside: But he has policies. He's offering a menu of what he wants. And I think that will attract voters.
Daniel: Yes.
John Gartside: And I think... I think, you know, the Tories will be ambivalent, perhaps, towards the new Socialist Party. They'll like how it splits the Labour vote and that left-wing vote. But they'll also recognise that they've got this problem of reform that has existed since 2024. And actually, the Conservatives, they're going to need something pretty...
John Gartside: fabulous, pretty out of the ordinary to compete with reform. And at the moment, perhaps we can move on to this now, Daniel. How do you think the Conservatives have performed this year?
John Gartside: I think they could have done far better. What do you think?
Daniel: Well, I mean, there's no other way to describe it other than basically a disastrous performance. Losing hundreds of councillors in the May local elections, I think,
Daniel: it is possible that the party really struggles to continue in the same way that the the Liberal Party after World War I really saw all of its voters move towards the more radical Labour Party in the early So if that repeats with the Conservatives, Conservative vote moving so much towards reform that the party can no longer continue,
Daniel: It's frankly possible. I think that probably it won't happen. I think the Conservatives will continue. And I think we will see a situation where Labour just keep sneaking in, basically, because of how divided the vote on the right is.
Daniel: Unless, of course, reform is able to meet the kind of magic number of the low 30s in popularity. And we are seeing Nigel Farage you reach that kind of level of support in the polls.
Daniel: Because if you think that Labour was able to get 65% of the seats with only 33% of the vote, and the fact that reform is polling at 30% right now, if reform can get that up to 32, 33, 34, then we could see them get a landslide, a reform landslide out of nowhere.
Daniel: And I think that's definitely possibility that we have to consider.
Dejan: I want to ask you something there on the many local elections. Can you just, for our viewers, a quick refreshment? What are the numbers? What happened?
Daniel: Yes.
Dejan: What are the sort of, what are the takes from that?
Daniel: Okay, well first a bit of context on what these local elections actually are, because there's so many layers of government in Britain that it can be quite confusing as to what's actually going on. So what people were voting on there was quite a lot of these basically what we call like sort of county councils because they alternate.
Daniel: Every local election is a different set of elections in different parts of the countries for these different layers. And these local councils handle basically local issues and people's parents will pay things like council taxes and this kind of thing.
Daniel: County councils handle os schools.
Dejan: to
Dejan: To give us a different picture, just wanted to ask, just for a clarity point for our viewers.
Daniel: overview of the local election.
Daniel: What were the results? Yeah.
Dejan: No, no, no, no, no. Just these county councils operate in the way sort of, in Europe, a mayor would operate. For the people who are not from the UK.
Daniel: Yeah, it's the international listeners, I see.
Dejan: If you're from the States or from continental Europe or from anywhere else, mostly, you would have a mayor doing the the things that the county council does.
Daniel: I think that's a fair comparison.
Dejan: Correct?
Daniel: The councils are basically just, if you split a mayor into a plural group of people, they're really doing the same job as a mayor. It's just not centralised in that way.
Daniel: We do have some mayors, for example, Mayor of London, Mayor of Greater Manchester, and the idea of centralising it more around mayors who would be more powerful than these councils is definitely a direction in which we're heading.
Daniel: And it's definitely a plan of, I think, the Labour government, to be honest. But that would be a good comparison thing, yes.
John Gartside: So, Daniel.
Dejan: So what are the results? What happened?
John Gartside: Yes.
Daniel: So the results, right. Labour did badly, the Conservatives did terribly, although do have to remember that part of the reason the Conservatives did so badly was because a lot of the councils that were up for election were councils that Boris Johnson won at the peak of his popularity back in 2021.
Daniel: So it was always inevitable that the Conservatives were going to lose a lot of these council seats. But even when you take into that account, they still did very poorly. And reform did really, really well.
Daniel: Obviously, basically didn't have a single council before this, so everything was a gain. It's impossible for them to lose when you have nothing to start with. So they did gain an enormous amount, really even taking really key resources.
Daniel: very left-wing strongholds in kind of the old mining areas, like, for example, Durham County be be Council going to reform. These are really astonishing things. And I think Labour should be really worried about that, that they could end up being a one-term government if their natural base of support, especially in the north of England, gravitates towards reform.
Daniel: It's definitely a possibility. And it has been reflected in these local elections. The question is whether it can be converted into general election. And it's often said by political analysts and people like that,
Daniel: that people vote in general elections very differently to how they would vote in local elections. And local elections might be seen as almost a protest vote, where the government will do particularly badly. People just want to get across their dissatisfaction.
Daniel: They might not necessarily vote against the government in the general election.
John Gartside: I going say there, Daniel, I agree with you. I think perhaps to sort of use a football analogy, Farage was sort of the man on the right wing and he scored this meteoric, goal local elections, one could say.
John Gartside: think that was probably highlight his 2025 in ways.
Daniel: Yes, definitely. Especially with winning the by-election in Hellsby.
Dejan: I just want to go a bit deeper into this local election though.
Daniel: Run for a run call. Yes.
Dejan: Is the fact, is because a lot people in 2024 were talking about how the Lib Dems sort of prepared their, their groundwork almost at the local election that delivered them roughly 60 seats in the general election.
Dejan: Is that possible for reform? Do we think this is sort the first layer in farrages and reform sort of ascension to more seats in government?
Daniel: i i I mean, it's very hard to predict because we're probably four years away from the general election. But I would say i think reform may have peaked.
Daniel: I think I say hesitantly, but I think reform may have peaked in popularity. Maybe you'll both disagree with me on that, because if you look at the polls, they've reached 30 percent.
Daniel: with reform is kind of fluctuating between 30 and 29. I don't really see Labour becoming even more unpopular than it already is. I'm not sure how it's possible for a current government to get worse than the current 23% that they're polling right now.
Daniel: So in terms of the numbers, I'd say hesitantly, unless the Conservatives collapse further, that I think reform may have peaked and that I'm not sure they can get above 30%.
John Gartside: Thank you.
Daniel: Can they win an election with 30%? Maybe it really just depends on what first pass the post first pass the post does because it's it can't really handle this amount of parties on almost an equal footing. It will do strange things basically is the issue.
John Gartside: Yes, and to sort of thinking about what you said there, Daniel, because that did make me think in that they could almost just plateau reform in a way. Because now it's become a reality for them, governing in many ways through these local elections.
Daniel: Yeah.
John Gartside: And people are going to witness what a reformed local government is like and whether they're actually very good at governing. And in my opinion, I think that will be a a major obstacle to reform and Farage.
Daniel: Yes.
John Gartside: I think Farage is an amazing publicist. Is he an amazing politician and political leader? I don't think probably he is, actually. I think he's got the media game sorted out, but the actual sort of political game, probably not.
Daniel: I would probably describe him as a bit of a charismatic kind of demagogue figure. he's able to rally enormous amounts of people to him.
Daniel: But when he's actually tasked with governing, I think he might actually become quite bored. I think he's in love with the game, but I don't know whether he's actually interested in ruling.
Daniel: It's an interesting question.
John Gartside: Yeah.
Daniel: And I think comes back to, because people have said he's running a kind of cult of personality almost, and it kind of depends how much of,
Daniel: his personality is actually interested in governing at all. So.
John Gartside: Yeah, I think he, as you said, I think he likes the idea of the chase. But yeah, perhaps not.
Dejan: Yeah.
Daniel: Yes.
John Gartside: To finish off with, perhaps we can sort of delve into some of the recent news. And we mentioned it at the start, but these are the rather tumultuous few weeks that Starmer has had on the front bench.
John Gartside: He had Rachel Reeves crying in Parliament.
Daniel: Hmm.
John Gartside: He had this welfare bill, which I think left him just wishing for the summer holiday ahead. Can you perhaps comment on what has happened these last few weeks for Starmer? He's recently seen Macron as well.
Daniel: Yes. So to begin with, Rachel Reeves crying. That broke the headlines. Everyone was saying the reason why she was crying, even though she said it was for personal reasons. Everyone else said it was just she's had such a bad time in Parliament with these welfare cuts, which the government has proposed and has had to U-turn on despite their 170 seat majority because their own MPs don't support it. They think the government's become too right wing, essentially.
Daniel: So... Why do I think she was crying? I think that probably the reason why she did burst into tears in a way almost like Scooby in Scooby-Doo, who often burst into tears in these kind of extraordinary emotional scenes.
Daniel: And I think that is what has happened to her in this case. I don't believe her story, but it was for personal reasons. Her excuse is that for ordinary people in the public, when they have a bad day, it's not on television.
Daniel: But then I think she has to recognise that she's not an ordinary person. You know, if Joe Schmoe has a bad day, he's just Joe Schmoe. She's not Joe Schmoe. And she's chosen that life. She's chosen to be the second most important public servant in the in nation.
Daniel: And I think in that role, you have to behave as someone who is above that kind of just kind of crass show of emotion, I
John Gartside: Yeah, I mean, I think as you said there, in a rather sort of powerful analogy there, Daniel, Reeves crying did just sort of symbolise this dismal state for Labour over those past few weeks.
Daniel: That's what I'd
John Gartside: But looking to the future as well, what do think's next for Starmer? How will he sort of attract this popularity which he's recently lost?
Daniel: say. Well, I think if I was Stalmer, there's a clear way out of the current maths. which is basically he needs to have a reset in government completely.
Daniel: He needs to throw away this manifesto pledge that he wouldn't raise taxes. Evident he does, considering how poorly the economy is doing right now. So the only way to do that is he needs to have a new chancellor who can restore credibility in the markets.
Daniel: Because Rachel Weaver just upset the markets to quite a considerable extent, especially with the cost of our debt, that kind of thing for the economists will know about more.
Daniel: And I think that would be what I would do if I was Starmer. I think he also really needs to go really, really hard on migration. If you're going to get the reform vote, he needs to prove that he's credible on migration.
Daniel: Currently, he has not. This scheme he's devised with Macron, I think is essentially just a show. It involves a few boats going back here and there to France, lots of nice pictures to go on the television but really is there much substance to I doubt it.
Daniel: So that's what I would do if I was Stamler. Will he do it? I think he will do none of the things I have suggested because I think he's very poor political instincts, if I'm perfectly honest, considering he's only been in parliament for 10 years.
Daniel: He's really just a newbie. So he needs to, he needs to, he needs some more experience, I'd say.
Dejan: My question is, you said you'd bring a new chancellor. Who can that be? Who in the Labour Party at the moment sort of is up there for that role? Who could actually do the job?
Daniel: Yes. So I think the conflict would be between from the figures of the soft left, you got figures like Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary.
Daniel: You've got Angela Rainer, the Deputy Prime Minister, although, frankly, I don't think she'll be perceived as having the intelligence for the role of being Chancellor. So I don't think it'll be her. So I think it will probably most likely be Yvette Cooper, who is the current Home Secretary.
Daniel: She's ran for Labour leader before. I think she was beaten by Jeremy Corbyn in 2015 in that leadership election then. So she is a big figure in the Labour Party. And I think she could actually, think she probably would be that choice.
John Gartside: Thank
Daniel: It would also avoid any speculation that the reason for getting rid of Rachel Reeves was sexism, because you'd be replacing one female Chancellor with another. So that'd be another plus for Starmer, which I think he might go for, to be honest.
Daniel: I certainly don't see Rachel Rees being Chancellor at the next election.
Dejan: Thank you.
Daniel: I'm going to stand by that prediction. Rachel Rees will not be Chancellor in the 2029 general election. That's my prediction.
John Gartside: So you heard it here first. yeah do agree with that.
Daniel: Yeah.
John Gartside: I think Starmer has got a brilliant opportunity for the Labour Party. And he may be, as you said there, Daniel, wasting it with Rachel Reeves.
Dejan: Thank you very much. Fabulous discussion today with Daniel and John. And again, many thanks, Daniel, for coming on. It's really interesting sometimes be able to sort of go a bit more holistically around politics with someone who actually knows what they're talking about.
Daniel: Always a pleasure. Always a pleasure.
Dejan: And as always, if you enjoyed the episode, please do leave a comment, leave us a review, and be ready for another sort of politics-related episode coming very, very soon.
Dejan: Very excited for that one as well. See you all next week.
John Gartside: See that?
Daniel: Thank for having me on, John and Dan.
