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S4 Episode 9: Starmer's first year in office
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Today John and Dejan are joined by Daniel as they delve into a discussion on Starmer's first year in office. Listen to hear them discuss the rise of reform, Corbyn's new socialist party and Starmer's success after 1 year as PM.
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Transcript
Introduction to UK Politics Discussion
00:00:00
John Gartside
Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast. Today you join us for a very exciting episode as we are joined by a fellow politics enthusiast but also far more of a politics expert we must say than either me or Diane.
00:00:19
Dejan
Today we're here with our good friend Daniel, a favourite both of ours and of the sort of channel in the community as a whole. Daniel is our sort of go-to political analyst when it comes to UK and international news.
00:00:32
Dejan
And today we'll be discussing Starmer's first year in office and any new developments in the world of British politics as well.
Labour's Election Challenges and Strategy
00:00:40
Dejan
But before we get going, Daniel, can just give our viewers a quick overview of the last year?
00:00:45
Dejan
How did start? How did it go? highlights? Any lowlights?
00:00:50
Daniel
Of course. Well, first, thank you, John and Diane, for having me. Always a pleasure to be on. So exactly just over a year ago, July 4th, Labour wins what was called at first a landslide election, winning almost two thirds of the seats in the House of Commons, but with only 33 percent of the popular vote.
00:01:12
Daniel
And we'll talk about that later as maybe that wasn't really a landslide after all. So Labour arrives, they describe financially what they call a £20 billion black hole in the public finances.
00:01:25
Daniel
And their goal since then in this year been to try to resolve this black hole. The main issue was that they promised that they wouldn't raise any major taxes.
00:01:35
Daniel
And so this naturally meant that they would have to go and look at what What can we cut, basically? And the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, decided that one of the main areas to do that would be welfare, for example.
00:01:47
Daniel
But this received a lot of backlash in the country, in the public and in the Labour Party, which has meant recently that she had to U-turn on a number of these decisions.
Impact of Electoral Systems on Labour
00:01:57
John Gartside
Daniel, could you perhaps provide a bit of further insight into what actually happened with these welfare reforms? I'm sure many of our listeners saw it dominate the news headlines, but why was this so controversial?
00:02:10
Daniel
It was so controversial because they were seen as targeting perhaps the most vulnerable group in society, which was the pensioners. So the pensioners have been using what's called the winter fuel payment to subsidise their energy costs, which had been particularly severe after the war in Ukraine and Donald Trump's tariffs.
00:02:30
Daniel
So prospect that those would be reversed was deeply controversial, as you said, and naturally caused quite of of a lot of backlash in the Labour Party, which was really in part founded really to try and help support the weakest in society.
00:02:48
Daniel
So it was very poor publicity and naturally they wanted to receive strong opposition in the Labour Party.
00:02:55
Dejan
I want to go back just to the start last year, July 4th. You were saying that they only got 33% of the vote, but a landslide majority in the House Parliament.
Potential New Left-Wing Party Formation
00:03:04
Daniel
Yes.
00:03:05
Dejan
Can we go a bit deeper into that? And can you sort of explain why that might not be the case in the next election, why that still might be the case? How did this sort of first-class-the-poll system enable that to happen?
00:03:17
Dejan
And do you see any changes coming up?
00:03:20
Daniel
Yes, well, I think the problem lies in the fact that first-past-the-post is essentially, think, incapable of dealing with an election where you have so many parties with not really sufficient number of votes.
00:03:34
Daniel
I mean, traditionally, 33% of the vote, which is what Labour got, would not be considered sufficient to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons. And indeed, Jeremy Corbyn won an equal to or larger proportion of the votes in 2017 and 2019, but both times lost the election. So talking about next time, think we might see a similar situation repeat in 2024, where the vote on the right was essentially split between reform and Conservative.
00:04:07
Daniel
And that meant the Labour was able to ease in fairly to dozens of constituencies across the country by very small voters, often like around 200, that kind of thing.
00:04:20
John Gartside
Daniel, you just mentioned there about this right-wing votes being split. And that is something that I think Farage sort of, in a way, sort of enjoyed, and as a matter of fact, perhaps, to sort of weaken the Conservatives.
00:04:34
John Gartside
However, recent developments in the news and amidst the left-wing in the UK have shown that there's a possibility, and I think actually likelihood, that Jeremy Corbyn and Zahra Sultana will form a new sort of breakaway
Vote Splitting and Its Consequences
00:04:48
John Gartside
socialist left-wing party.
00:04:50
John Gartside
What threat do think this poses to Labour?
00:04:54
Daniel
I think that it could pose a significant threat, but I think it depends whether Jeremy Corbyn, I suppose the insinuation basically here is that Jeremy Corbyn might be able to do what Nigel Farage has done to the Conservative Party, which is basically to split it off the more, I wouldn't say radical, but the more of
00:05:13
Dejan
Hardliners.
00:05:14
Daniel
Yes, the more hardline, more ideological elements of the part of the conservative movement. He moved that to reform. That's what Naira Farage did. So there's a possibility Jeremy Corbyn would do the same with the Labour Party and that the old socialists, they called this sort of momentum movement.
00:05:32
Daniel
that these people in this momentum movement might move towards Jeremy Corbyn's party. I've heard it say that that could make Labour lose about 30% of its vote share.
00:05:44
Daniel
On the extreme end, we'll have to see whether they can mimic what reform has done for the Tories. But that'd be the worst case scenario for Labour, I think.
00:05:52
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:05:52
Dejan
So if that does happen and we have four parties with a, you know, decently split equal share of the votes, I think this is the big question that we've definitely been asking, John, to our guests for the last year.
00:06:08
Dejan
Are we going to see a reformed Conservative coalition the next election? Do you think Jeremy Corbyn's party enables that coalition? Do you think it sort of forces the Tories, it backs them into a wall basically saying we need to couple up a reform?
00:06:25
Dejan
Or do you think it actually helps the Conservative Party be a bit more independent of reform?
00:06:32
Daniel
I think that it would help the Tories be able to see themselves as more independent of the form. Because I think from a Conservative point of view, this is probably the best news they've heard all year, and that the possibility that Labour's support might be fractured to the similar extent that
Coalition Speculations and Political Dynamics
00:06:48
John Gartside
Thank you.
00:06:48
Daniel
the Conservative support has been fractured, they think might actually be good for them.
00:06:51
Daniel
They might be able to edge through in a number of these constituencies where Labour was able to just slip through because of the vote split between the Tories and reform. So if the same was happen with Labour and the Socialist Party,
00:07:07
Daniel
And then when you consider that their vote might also be split between Lib Dems and the Greens, then I think that would probably be the hope of the Conservatives, to be honest.
00:07:15
Dejan
John, what do you think?
00:07:16
John Gartside
Yeah, I'll say I agree with you there, Daniel. I think the Tories will have a sort of optimistic outlook on it because it does split Labour's vote. Corbyn's new party will attract these more ideological, hardline, socialist members of the Labour Party.
00:07:32
John Gartside
And also this sort of large pro-Palestine faction that exists. We can see that there are protests currently erupting in the UK surrounding this.
00:07:38
Daniel
Yeah.
00:07:40
John Gartside
And I think Corbyn... has always actually been a very popular politician amidst a certain group. He's always had a a group which sort of look up to him in the same way that people on the far right look up to Farage.
00:07:55
John Gartside
And I think in certain Labour seats, especially those with a sort of larger, sort of ideological hardline left perspective, Corbyn and Zahra Sultana's new party could pose a real threat to Labour.
00:08:09
John Gartside
But it's literally almost a mirror image of Farage on the right, as you said there, Daniel. They're splitting the votes.
00:08:15
Daniel
Yes.
00:08:16
John Gartside
Perhaps it will help Farage, a splitted Labour vote, sort of transition into gaining more seats in Parliament at the next election. And I think it would. I think it will help him.
00:08:27
John Gartside
But I think the Tories will like it, but then the Tories will also notice that it helps Farage. And it will help Farage attract more votes and more seats by splitting this vote.
00:08:37
Dejan
Well, I
00:08:39
John Gartside
And actually, perhaps to mention, we can talk about this as well, Daniel, and it's the Green Party.
00:08:47
John Gartside
They're apparently ah ah pretty dismal at the moment regarding this sort of socialist party that Corbyn may perform. What are your opinions on them and their future in UK politics?
00:09:00
Daniel
Well, it's interesting that we're discussing the Greens because there was a kind of theory going around, i suppose, a few years ago, that climate change would basically mean that the Greens could end up being one of the largest parties and that Green parties around the world would rise.
00:09:14
Daniel
We just haven't seen that at all. And even though... I think they won about two million votes actually in the general election, which was about a fair showing for the Greens. But I do think their base does overlap with what we might describe as this Corbyn, Corbyn-like, possible socialist party that might arise.
00:09:33
Daniel
And so I think... supporters of the Greens really if they want a chance to actually implement their policies they would be wise to switch their allegiance to the Corbyn sort party because I think he is more of a rallying figure for the left as opposed to these figures in the Green party that no one's really heard of like Carla Denia and I can't remember what the co-leaders called they're that irrelevant so that's what I would say that would be my advice to the Greens
Rise of the Reform Party and Its Impact
00:10:01
Dejan
Well, i have to I have to agree with you on that point because, and we've discussed this previously on episode 8, Ian, there politics about being popular.
00:10:02
Daniel
oh
00:10:12
Dejan
And the Greens at the moment, they're not popular as an organisation, but they also don't have any leaders who have the potential to be popular.
00:10:12
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:10:20
Daniel
Yes. Yes.
00:10:20
Dejan
They don't have that sort of electric figure who can grab votes from different parties, different regions. And Corbyn does have that. We can disagree with his policies, we can agree with his policies, we can agree with him as a person, disagree with him as a person. But what is undeniable about him is that he has this effect of being able to grab votes.
00:10:43
Dejan
He has the capacity of being able to look around the country and get votes from people. I want to to challenge, though, a previous comment that both of you made, which is that this Corbyn Party actually helps the Tories.
00:10:58
Daniel
Okay.
00:10:58
Dejan
I think it doesn't. I think it deeply hurts them. Because now... With sort of farage and reform rising in the local elections, we've seen a couple more wins.
00:11:11
Dejan
I think the split in the next general election will be roughly equal among Labour and the Conservatives, with reform also being there and Jeremy Corbyn's party being there.
00:11:28
Dejan
I think this actually means that the Tories will be forced into a coalition against their will. Because this would be a shot at government for them, potentially, if Farage does well.
00:11:39
Dejan
And I don't see them partnering up with anyone else apart from reform.
00:11:39
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:11:43
Dejan
So in the case that we get, which I think is quite probable, that no one has a majority of seats.
00:11:49
Daniel
Yeah.
00:11:49
Dejan
If that happens, the Tories will be backed into a coalition reform. I don't see Labour necessarily partnering up Jeremy Corbyn. I think their relationship is a bit strained.
00:12:01
Dejan
I definitely see the other side happening more.
00:12:04
Daniel
Well, it's interesting you say that because I would say that the relationship between the Tories and reform is far more strained, considering that reform essentially destroyed the Conservative vote in the last election and probably will the next one.
00:12:18
Daniel
Like if you consider that in 2024, reform got 14% of the vote, Tories got 23%. If you were to add reform's tally to the Tories' tally, then the Tories get more votes in 2024 than Labour.
00:12:31
Daniel
which completely undermines the whole idea that the Conservatives are deeply unpopular by 2024.
00:12:32
Dejan
Yeah.
00:12:39
Daniel
So think, in a sense, I do agree with you in that I think there will have to be some kind of coalition between some parties next election, because I can't see how first-past-the-post will, unless, of course, first-past-the-post somehow just allots majority, because it can sort of happen.
00:13:00
Daniel
almost accidentally, where parties have received an almost equal amount of votes in a constituency and one of them just manages to take it. And if that happens across the board, then you can end up in absurd situations where a party with a very small amount of the vote gets a lot more seats, as Labour have done in 2024. So that's the question as to whether that will repeat again and in 2029.
00:13:20
Daniel
I personally don't think it will, especially when you consider the rise of reform and possibly the rise of the Socialist Party.
00:13:28
John Gartside
I agree with you there, Daniel, as well.
00:13:29
Dejan
Ciao.
00:13:31
John Gartside
I think, and I think the biggest obstacle actually in many ways to a Tory reform coalition is whether Farage wants it, because he may not need it, simply because Reform UK, as we saw in the 2024 election, they were hugely popular across the nation.
00:13:49
John Gartside
And I actually think that will only grow purely because, in my opinion, the Conservatives aren't under the strongest leadership of Kemi Baden-Ok. She made all these slip ups at the start when she just became leader and she's still not provided any policies.
00:14:04
John Gartside
On the other hand, whether you like them or not, Farage has got some clear policy, some clear ideas. Whether they can actually be implemented in government is ah ah another completely different question.
00:14:14
John Gartside
But he has policies. He's offering a menu of what he wants. And I think that will attract voters.
00:14:20
Daniel
Yes.
00:14:21
John Gartside
And I think... I think, you know, the Tories will be ambivalent, perhaps, towards the new Socialist Party. They'll like how it splits the Labour vote and that left-wing vote. But they'll also recognise that they've got this problem of reform that has existed since 2024. And actually, the Conservatives, they're going to need something pretty...
00:14:43
John Gartside
fabulous, pretty out of the ordinary to compete with reform. And at the moment, perhaps we can move on to this now, Daniel. How do you think the Conservatives have performed this year?
00:14:53
John Gartside
I think they could have done far better. What do you think?
00:14:57
Daniel
Well, I mean, there's no other way to describe it other than basically a disastrous performance. Losing hundreds of councillors in the May local elections, I think,
00:15:11
Daniel
it is possible that the party really struggles to continue in the same way that the the Liberal Party after World War I really saw all of its voters move towards the more radical Labour Party in the early So if that repeats with the Conservatives, Conservative vote moving so much towards reform that the party can no longer continue,
00:15:37
Daniel
It's frankly possible. I think that probably it won't happen. I think the Conservatives will continue. And I think we will see a situation where Labour just keep sneaking in, basically, because of how divided the vote on the right is.
00:15:52
Daniel
Unless, of course, reform is able to meet the kind of magic number of the low 30s in popularity. And we are seeing Nigel Farage you reach that kind of level of support in the polls.
00:16:05
Daniel
Because if you think that Labour was able to get 65% of the seats with only 33% of the vote, and the fact that reform is polling at 30% right now, if reform can get that up to 32, 33, 34, then we could see them get a landslide, a reform landslide out of nowhere.
Trends from Recent Local Elections
00:16:25
Daniel
And I think that's definitely possibility that we have to consider.
00:16:29
Dejan
I want to ask you something there on the many local elections. Can you just, for our viewers, a quick refreshment? What are the numbers? What happened?
00:16:39
Dejan
What are the sort of, what are the takes from that?
00:16:39
Daniel
Yes.
00:16:42
Daniel
Okay, well first a bit of context on what these local elections actually are, because there's so many layers of government in Britain that it can be quite confusing as to what's actually going on. So what people were voting on there was quite a lot of these basically what we call like sort of county councils because they alternate.
00:17:01
Daniel
Every local election is a different set of elections in different parts of the countries for these different layers. And these local councils handle basically local issues and people's parents will pay things like council taxes and this kind of thing.
00:17:16
Daniel
County councils handle os schools.
00:17:17
Dejan
to
00:17:20
Dejan
To give us a different picture, just wanted to ask, just for a clarity point for our viewers.
00:17:21
Daniel
overview of the local election.
00:17:25
Daniel
What were the results? Yeah.
00:17:27
Dejan
No, no, no, no, no. Just these county councils operate in the way sort of, in Europe, a mayor would operate. For the people who are not from the UK.
00:17:36
Daniel
Yeah, it's the international listeners, I see.
00:17:38
Dejan
If you're from the States or from continental Europe or from anywhere else, mostly, you would have a mayor doing the the things that the county council does.
00:17:47
Daniel
I think that's a fair comparison.
00:17:47
Dejan
Correct?
00:17:48
Daniel
The councils are basically just, if you split a mayor into a plural group of people, they're really doing the same job as a mayor. It's just not centralised in that way.
00:17:59
Daniel
We do have some mayors, for example, Mayor of London, Mayor of Greater Manchester, and the idea of centralising it more around mayors who would be more powerful than these councils is definitely a direction in which we're heading.
00:18:11
Daniel
And it's definitely a plan of, I think, the Labour government, to be honest. But that would be a good comparison thing, yes.
00:18:19
John Gartside
So, Daniel.
00:18:19
Dejan
So what are the results? What happened?
00:18:21
John Gartside
Yes.
00:18:23
Daniel
So the results, right. Labour did badly, the Conservatives did terribly, although do have to remember that part of the reason the Conservatives did so badly was because a lot of the councils that were up for election were councils that Boris Johnson won at the peak of his popularity back in 2021.
00:18:43
Daniel
So it was always inevitable that the Conservatives were going to lose a lot of these council seats. But even when you take into that account, they still did very poorly. And reform did really, really well.
00:18:54
Daniel
Obviously, basically didn't have a single council before this, so everything was a gain. It's impossible for them to lose when you have nothing to start with. So they did gain an enormous amount, really even taking really key resources.
00:19:10
Daniel
very left-wing strongholds in kind of the old mining areas, like, for example, Durham County be be Council going to reform. These are really astonishing things. And I think Labour should be really worried about that, that they could end up being a one-term government if their natural base of support, especially in the north of England, gravitates towards reform.
00:19:29
Daniel
It's definitely a possibility. And it has been reflected in these local elections. The question is whether it can be converted into general election. And it's often said by political analysts and people like that,
00:19:40
Daniel
that people vote in general elections very differently to how they would vote in local elections. And local elections might be seen as almost a protest vote, where the government will do particularly badly. People just want to get across their dissatisfaction.
00:19:52
Daniel
They might not necessarily vote against the government in the general election.
00:19:57
John Gartside
I going say there, Daniel, I agree with you. I think perhaps to sort of use a football analogy, Farage was sort of the man on the right wing and he scored this meteoric, goal local elections, one could say.
00:20:09
John Gartside
think that was probably highlight his 2025 in ways.
00:20:15
Daniel
Yes, definitely. Especially with winning the by-election in Hellsby.
00:20:22
Dejan
I just want to go a bit deeper into this local election though.
00:20:23
Daniel
Run for a run call. Yes.
00:20:27
Dejan
Is the fact, is because a lot people in 2024 were talking about how the Lib Dems sort of prepared their, their groundwork almost at the local election that delivered them roughly 60 seats in the general election.
00:20:43
Dejan
Is that possible for reform? Do we think this sort is the first layer in farrages and reform sort of ascension to more seats in government?
00:20:52
Daniel
i i I mean, it's very hard to predict because we're probably four years away from the general election. But I would say i think reform may have peaked.
00:21:03
Daniel
I think I say hesitantly, but I think reform may have peaked in popularity. Maybe you'll both disagree with me on that, because if you look at the polls, they've reached 30 percent.
00:21:15
Daniel
with reform is kind of fluctuating between 30 and 29. I don't really see Labour becoming even more unpopular than it already is. I'm not sure how it's possible for a current government to get worse than the current 23% that they're polling right now.
00:21:32
Daniel
So in terms of the numbers, I'd say hesitantly, unless the Conservatives collapse further, that I think reform may have peaked and that I'm not sure they can get above 30%.
00:21:32
John Gartside
Thank you.
Leadership and Governance Challenges
00:21:42
Daniel
Can they win an election with 30%? Maybe it really just depends on what first pass the post first pass the post does because it's it can't really handle this amount of parties on almost an equal footing. It will do strange things basically is the issue.
00:21:59
John Gartside
Yes, and to sort of thinking about what you said there, Daniel, because that did make me think in that they could almost just plateau reform in a way. Because now it's become a reality for them, governing in many ways through these local elections.
00:22:08
Daniel
Yeah.
00:22:14
John Gartside
And people are going to witness what a reformed local government is like and whether they're actually very good at governing. And in my opinion, I think that will be a a major obstacle to reform and Farage.
00:22:22
Daniel
Yes.
00:22:25
John Gartside
I think Farage is an amazing publicist. Is he an amazing politician and political leader? I don't think probably he is, actually. I think he's got the media game sorted out, but the actual sort of political game, probably not.
00:22:45
Daniel
I would probably describe him as a bit of a charismatic kind of demagogue figure. he's able to rally enormous amounts of people to him.
00:22:54
Daniel
But when he's actually tasked with governing, I think he might actually become quite bored. I think he's in love with the game, but I don't know whether he's actually interested in ruling.
00:23:05
Daniel
It's an interesting question.
00:23:09
John Gartside
Yeah.
00:23:10
Daniel
And I think comes back to, because people have said he's running a kind of cult of personality almost, and it kind of depends how much of,
00:23:18
Daniel
his personality is actually interested in governing at all. So.
00:23:23
John Gartside
Yeah, I think he, as you said, I think he likes the idea of the chase. But yeah, perhaps not.
00:23:29
Dejan
Yeah.
00:23:29
Daniel
Yes.
00:23:30
John Gartside
To finish off with, perhaps we can sort of delve into some of the recent news. And we mentioned it at the start, but these are the rather tumultuous few weeks that Starmer has had on the front bench.
00:23:41
John Gartside
He had Rachel Reeves crying in Parliament.
00:23:43
Daniel
Hmm.
00:23:44
John Gartside
He had this welfare bill, which I think left him just wishing for the summer holiday ahead. Can you perhaps comment on what has happened these last few weeks for Starmer? He's recently seen Macron as well.
00:23:56
Daniel
Yes. So to begin with, Rachel Reeves crying. That broke the headlines. Everyone was saying the reason why she was crying, even though she said it was for personal reasons. Everyone else said it was just she's had such a bad time in Parliament with these welfare cuts, which the government has proposed and has had to U-turn on despite their 170 seat majority because their own MPs don't support it. They think the government's become too right wing, essentially.
00:24:22
Daniel
So... Why do I think she was crying? I think that probably the reason why she did burst into tears in a way almost like Scooby in Scooby-Doo, who often burst into tears in these kind of extraordinary emotional scenes.
00:24:38
Daniel
And I think that is what has happened to her in this case. I don't believe her story, but it was for personal reasons. Her excuse is that for ordinary people in the public, when they have a bad day, it's not on television.
00:24:51
Daniel
But then I think she has to recognise that she's not an ordinary person.
Labour's Internal Struggles and Potential Reforms
00:24:55
Daniel
You know, if Joe Schmoe has a bad day, he's just Joe Schmoe. She's not Joe Schmoe. And she's chosen that life. She's chosen to be the second most important public servant in the in nation.
00:25:06
Daniel
And I think in that role, you have to behave as someone who is above that kind of just kind of crass show of emotion, I
00:25:16
John Gartside
Yeah, I mean, I think as you said there, in a rather sort of powerful analogy there, Daniel, Reeves crying did just sort of symbolise this dismal state for Labour over those past few weeks.
00:25:18
Daniel
That's what I'd
00:25:30
John Gartside
But looking to the future as well, what do think's next for Starmer? How will he sort of attract this popularity which he's recently lost?
00:25:39
Daniel
say. Well, I think if I was Stalmer, there's a clear way out of the current maths. which is basically he needs to have a reset in government completely.
00:25:50
Daniel
He needs to throw away this manifesto pledge that he wouldn't raise taxes. Evident he does, considering how poorly the economy is doing right now. So the only way to do that is he needs to have a new chancellor who can restore credibility in the markets.
00:26:04
Daniel
Because Rachel Weaver just upset the markets to quite a considerable extent, especially with the cost of our debt, that kind of thing for the economists will know about more.
00:26:17
Daniel
And I think that would be what I would do if I was Starmer. I think he also really needs to go really, really hard on migration. If you're going to get the reform vote, he needs to prove that he's credible on migration.
00:26:29
Daniel
Currently, he has not. This scheme he's devised with Macron, I think is essentially just a show. It involves a few boats going back here and there to France, lots of nice pictures to go on the television but really is there much substance to I doubt it.
00:26:45
Daniel
So that's what I would do if I was Stamler. Will he do it? I think he will do none of the things I have suggested because I think he's very poor political instincts, if I'm perfectly honest, considering he's only been in parliament for 10 years.
00:26:58
Daniel
He's really just a newbie. So he needs to, he needs to, he needs some more experience, I'd say.
00:27:05
Dejan
My question is, you said you'd bring a new chancellor. Who can that be? Who in the Labour Party at the moment sort of is up there for that role? Who could actually do the job?
00:27:16
Daniel
Yes. So I think the conflict would be between from the figures of the soft left, you got figures like Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary.
00:27:26
Daniel
You've got Angela Rainer, the Deputy Prime Minister, although, frankly, I don't think she'll be perceived as having the intelligence for the role of being Chancellor. So I don't think it'll be her. So I think it will probably most likely be Yvette Cooper, who is the current Home Secretary.
00:27:42
Daniel
She's ran for Labour leader before. I think she was beaten by Jeremy Corbyn in 2015 in that leadership election then. So she is a big figure in the Labour Party. And I think she could actually, think she probably would be that choice.
00:27:53
John Gartside
Thank
00:27:58
Daniel
It would also avoid any speculation that the reason for getting rid of Rachel Reeves was sexism, because you'd be replacing one female Chancellor with another. So that'd be another plus for Starmer, which I think he might go for, to be honest.
00:28:10
Daniel
I certainly don't see Rachel Rees being Chancellor at the next election.
00:28:11
Dejan
Thank you.
00:28:13
Daniel
I'm going to stand by that prediction. Rachel Rees will not be Chancellor in the 2029 general election. That's my prediction.
00:28:20
John Gartside
So you heard it here first. yeah do agree with that.
00:28:22
Daniel
Yeah.
00:28:24
John Gartside
I think Starmer has got a brilliant opportunity for the Labour Party. And he may be, as you said there, Daniel, wasting it with Rachel Reeves.
Conclusion and Future Episodes
00:28:34
Dejan
Thank you very much. Fabulous discussion today with Daniel and John. And again, many thanks, Daniel, for coming on. It's really interesting sometimes be able to sort of go a bit more holistically around politics with someone who actually knows what they're talking about.
00:28:44
Daniel
Always a pleasure. Always a pleasure.
00:28:58
Dejan
And as always, if you enjoyed the episode, please do leave a comment, leave us a review, and be ready for another sort of politics-related episode coming very, very soon.
00:29:09
Dejan
Very excited for that one as well. See you all next week.
00:29:13
John Gartside
See that?
00:29:14
Daniel
Thank for having me on, John and Dan.