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S4 Episode 12: Are the Tories toast? With Matt Sinclair
37 Plays4 months ago
Today John and Dejan are joined by Matt Sinclair, one of the most active conservative party campaigners in the country. Tune in to hear them discuss the future of the Tories, the longevity of Reform and whether Corbyn's new party is here to stay.
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Transcript
Introduction to Matt Sinclair
00:00:00
Dejan
Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast. Today we're incredibly lucky to have Matt Sinclair with us. Matt, thank you very much for being here.
00:00:10
Matt Sinclair
Thank you for having me.
00:00:11
debatablediscussions
And so for our listeners who don't know, Matt is one of the most active Conservative Party campaigners in the country.
00:00:18
debatablediscussions
And he recently stood in, am I right saying the council by-election in the borough of Hammersmith and Fulham.
00:00:26
Matt Sinclair
Correct, in the Lilly Ward where I came a close second but increased the Conservative vote share.
00:00:32
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:00:33
debatablediscussions
So it is an honour to have you on today. And I'm sure you've got some very good insight from, well, I guess, inside the Conservative Party itself.
Challenges and Growth of Amy Baden's Leadership
00:00:42
Matt Sinclair
I'd like to think so, certainly.
00:00:45
Dejan
So the first question is ah bit of a broad one, but in your opinion, how do you think Amy Baden outperformed as the leader of the Conservative Party in her first sort of Nere Liena?
00:00:58
Matt Sinclair
I think it's important to state that she has an incredibly tough job.
00:01:03
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:01:03
Matt Sinclair
There hasn't been Conservative leader of the opposition for 15, 16 years now.
00:01:11
Matt Sinclair
And she's certainly taking it over in a new role at a time where really the country has had enough of
00:01:15
Dejan
I think the country has had us and new back in history, we have those kinds of measures and they also sort went hard to improve the government.
00:01:18
Matt Sinclair
um And if you look back in history, your first kind of leaders of the opposition, when a party has been removed from governments, tend to be up against it.
00:01:27
Matt Sinclair
No one wants to listen to them. Getting any cut through is very difficult. People have had enough with them. And internally within the party, there's always a lot of divisions. This is the reason things went wrong.
00:01:37
Matt Sinclair
That's the reason things went wrong. So I think she's got, would start by saying, an incredibly difficult job. I don't think anyone denies that.
00:01:49
Matt Sinclair
What I would say
00:01:50
Matt Sinclair
is I felt at the beginning, the first two or three months, she was clearly settling into the job.
00:01:58
Matt Sinclair
Prime Minister's questions, which is the leader of the opposition's real weekly opportunity to get cut through.
00:02:05
Matt Sinclair
That was, I would say, not the best start for her.
00:02:10
Matt Sinclair
I think she was weak at times. I think she went in on the wrong of...
00:02:16
Matt Sinclair
political debates and tried to press Starmer on areas where he was relatively strong.
00:02:22
Matt Sinclair
However, I think she's really grown into the role, particularly over the last six six weeks to two months.
00:02:26
Dejan
weeks
00:02:29
Matt Sinclair
And I feel she's really strengthened in that time.
00:02:34
Matt Sinclair
So I say it's gone well.
00:02:37
Matt Sinclair
People don't want to hear from the Conservatives at the moment.
00:02:40
Matt Sinclair
They kicked us out of office, you just over a year ago.
00:02:45
Matt Sinclair
quite frankly, I think Kemi's doing an awful lot of work inside the party in terms of reforming CCHQ, building a policy platform. So has it been perfect year?
00:02:57
Matt Sinclair
No, there's definitely a lot of work on areas, but I think there's a lot of positives to take as well.
00:03:03
debatablediscussions
That's quite interesting there,
The Influence of Robert Jenrick and James Cleverley
00:03:04
debatablediscussions
because I think one does have to recognise, as you said that she has had a very difficult time so far.
00:03:10
Dejan
shape
00:03:11
debatablediscussions
But something that I think me and Diane have noticed is that perhaps the Tory MP who most dominates, say social media, is is is becoming Robert Jenrick.
00:03:22
debatablediscussions
Now, do you he's going to sort of try and position himself to become the next leader?
00:03:27
Dejan
the
00:03:28
debatablediscussions
Is there some support for him to become the next leader? And importantly, do you think he would do a better job than Kemi?
00:03:36
Matt Sinclair
Oh, that's now that is a tough question to ask a Conservative.
00:03:40
Matt Sinclair
I think that Rob is doing an absolutely fantastic job.
00:03:46
Matt Sinclair
he's really leaning into the digital campaigning side.
00:03:50
Matt Sinclair
I think everyone's seen his videos on fair dodging on TFL and some other sort of digital stuff that he's done.
00:03:55
debatablediscussions
yeah
00:03:58
Matt Sinclair
And that's very much within his brief as Shadow Justice Secretary.
00:04:03
Matt Sinclair
So I think he's definitely got a very high profile.
00:04:06
Matt Sinclair
I think a shadow cabinet member's job to try and get cut
00:04:07
Dejan
ah through
00:04:10
Matt Sinclair
I don't think that because he's doing
00:04:13
Matt Sinclair
a fantastic job at doing that and really promoting his brief necessarily means that that's a bad thing for kemi or or a threat to her in some way she's got a very different role from what rob has to do rob has to focus on his brief and get cut through and engage actively with members in the wider public and i think he's doing exemplary job of that and i would love to see more of the shadow cabinet kind of follow his
00:04:38
Matt Sinclair
his energy. Does he want to be leader of the Conservative Party one day? I've absolutely no doubt. I think it's every politician's ambition to try and claim the land.
00:04:49
Matt Sinclair
What is it Boris once said? Craze wasps in in a jam jar.
00:04:52
Matt Sinclair
You know, they all want to to get there, get out, get to the top, break free.
00:04:54
Dejan
do that
00:04:57
Matt Sinclair
So it's perfectly natural that he should want to do But I think for the time being,
00:05:03
Matt Sinclair
he is providing great cut through to Kemi where maybe she's struggling slightly on that front and Rob's doing great job there, but she's doing so much inside the party that Rob simply can't do because he's not that leader of the opposition.
00:05:15
Matt Sinclair
So I actually think that they're working well as a team.
00:05:19
Matt Sinclair
And with the recent re-promotion, if you like, of James Cleverley to the front benches, I think that shows that Kemi isn't threatened by having these
00:05:30
Matt Sinclair
big names around her.
00:05:32
Matt Sinclair
She wants them. She wants the strongest possible team that she can have to hold Labour to account. So think it's a good thing that Rob is doing what he's doing.
00:05:41
Matt Sinclair
I think it's really helpful for the party and I don't see it as wildly threatening to Kemi by any means.
00:05:48
Matt Sinclair
Although I do know that listening to external, perhaps less partisan commentary, that is not how it comes across.
00:05:56
Dejan
of online have been disappointed maybe the return of some of the old guard, if you can say so, of the Conservatives. What's your take on that? Do you think it helps the party or do you think it hurts the party to bring back some associations from past?
00:06:13
Matt Sinclair
I think, you know, people like James Cleverley, Robert Jenner, if you were to put him that same bucket.
00:06:18
Matt Sinclair
I don't think that hurts us. And take Cleverley as an example.
00:06:22
Matt Sinclair
He was very clear in his conference speech last October.
00:06:26
Matt Sinclair
He said, we've got to apologise.
00:06:28
Matt Sinclair
We made mistakes. He stood on that stage and he said that. So I think he's being very honest and he's happy to listen.
00:06:35
Matt Sinclair
As we say, Kem is doing a lot of work on this sort of new policy forum to really re-figure out what the Conservative Party is to understand what we want to be.
00:06:47
Matt Sinclair
And they're fully behind that. So I don't... feel that bringing back these old names is an issue. If, for example, you wanted to bring back your Boris Johnson's or your Liz Truss's, then I think that would be more of an issue. But these individuals, they had a good record in office, particularly James Cleverley. I mean, you know, he was revered across both the Foreign Office and the Home Office as being a genuinely effective leader of those departments.
00:07:14
Matt Sinclair
And I think we want the best people with that experience, not all of them.
00:07:17
Matt Sinclair
We've got some amazing shadow cabinet members that people haven't heard of.
00:07:22
Matt Sinclair
So no, I think it's a good thing that we have people like that.
00:07:25
debatablediscussions
And yeah, I do agree with you there, because I think one can easily say the Tories at the moment are in a fairly sort of deflated state.
00:07:34
debatablediscussions
And when you've got people such a promise and who have shown that in the past, like Feverly, it really does, you know, Kemi should be including them in her shadow cabinet.
00:07:45
debatablediscussions
Another thing you mentioned there, Matt, was policies.
00:07:49
debatablediscussions
And this is what Kemi has come under a bit of fire for, because we see Reform UK has, well, I guess, supposedly some quite strong policies.
00:07:58
debatablediscussions
They're very strongly against immigration.
00:07:59
Matt Sinclair
Thank you.
00:08:00
debatablediscussions
However, Kemi's not really offered anything yet.
00:08:04
debatablediscussions
She's she's not really brought anything or any sort of hard policies which can attract voters.
00:08:10
debatablediscussions
Do you think this has harmed
Strategic Policy Development vs Labour's Approach
00:08:11
debatablediscussions
the party?
00:08:12
debatablediscussions
When do you think she'll do this? Because, i mean, personally, I do think is slightly limiting her
00:08:16
Dejan
do
00:08:19
Matt Sinclair
No, so i understand the arguments and that point around we don't have any policies, which I think is both wrong and I disagree with in any case.
00:08:29
Matt Sinclair
I think we need to look back.
00:08:31
Matt Sinclair
We were in power for 14 years, but within that you had various incarnations of the Conservative Party, it's something we can perhaps touch on later about sort of what is... conservatism, because I think we've seen it take three or four different over the last 14 years.
00:08:42
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:08:47
Matt Sinclair
We got booted out of office a year ago.
00:08:51
Matt Sinclair
People want us to go away and have a period of reflection say what we did wrong.
00:08:54
Dejan
perfection and and say what we didn't want.
00:08:56
Matt Sinclair
If we came back within six months and said, here's our new policy platform, vote for us, people wouldn't give us the time of day.
00:09:02
Matt Sinclair
We wouldn't have put any real thought into it. We wouldn't have really properly thought through the nuances of what those...
00:09:03
Dejan
to
00:09:09
Matt Sinclair
policy impacts might be. There is, as I say, so much work going in the background in the Conservative Policy Forum around developing these policies and we are very, very close to having really solid
00:09:21
Matt Sinclair
And to say that Kemi's come out with nothing, you know, she came out with her, I think it was her six points immigration plan.
00:09:28
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:09:29
Matt Sinclair
which I think was really, really solid, a really good, well thought through policy with genuine real world impact should it be followed through by either this government or the next.
00:09:41
Matt Sinclair
So to say she's come out with nothing, I think is wrong.
00:09:44
Matt Sinclair
And to say that
00:09:45
Matt Sinclair
her not coming out with anything or not coming out with much is hampering her. If she did come out with sort of half-baked policy ideas that were ripped apart, she'd be gone by now.
00:09:56
Matt Sinclair
It would be silly politics. would be performative. It wouldn't be serious. And that's what people want from us again.
00:10:02
Matt Sinclair
They want serious opposition with serious ideas. So I think it's perfectly right that we've taken 12 months, 12 to 18 months, two years even, to come up with a really solid policy platform that we can deliver to the country and say we are genuine, credible, different Conservative Party and offer them something to vote for at the polls, not just against, because that's what Labour did at last year's General.
00:10:29
Matt Sinclair
They didn't really have any idea of who they were, but they said, we're the grown up. We're going to be the sensible ones back in the room.
00:10:35
Matt Sinclair
So don't vote for the Conservatives because they're a mess. Just vote for us. But they had no vision.
00:10:40
Matt Sinclair
They had no real policies. That's why they've had such a terrible first year in office.
00:10:45
Matt Sinclair
So we want to give some people something really positive, something really well thought through to vote for.
00:10:45
Dejan
My......
00:10:51
Matt Sinclair
But you can't rush into that.
00:10:52
debatablediscussions
And I guess something to believe in as well is the real of yeah
00:10:57
Matt Sinclair
Exactly, a vision.
00:10:58
Matt Sinclair
You know, how are we going to make Britain an even better place to live?
00:11:01
Matt Sinclair
How are we going to solve the many, many problems face? What's role in this pretty unstable world?
00:11:03
Dejan
finished
00:11:08
Matt Sinclair
And these are questions that I don't think anyone's been able to answer at the moment, but we need to figure out for ourselves what the answer to those is.
00:11:16
Matt Sinclair
And they're big questions and we shouldn't rush into those.
00:11:19
Dejan
You've mentioned that Stammer has had quite a dismal year in office, but do you think this helps the Tories more? Do you think this is actually a sort of hidden opportunity for the more extreme parties such as Reform UK, with Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn's new party?
00:11:40
Matt Sinclair
Yeah, so...
00:11:41
Matt Sinclair
I think firstly, I would say clearly this is an opportunity for reform.
00:11:47
Matt Sinclair
I think they've led over 80 consecutive independent opinion polls.
00:11:53
Matt Sinclair
So to deny that would be silly, right? They're clearly riding high in the opinion polls at the moment. They had a successful local elections in May, and it'll be interesting see how they get on next May.
00:12:07
Matt Sinclair
Starmer's first year in office, though, as touched on it, I think it's been...
00:12:11
Matt Sinclair
such a struggle and such a mess because when they when they went into the general election and their entire sort of election plan leading up to that was we're not the the conservatives let's get the adults back in the room all of a sudden if we have sensible people making sensible decisions then everything will be fine
00:12:21
Dejan
updates
00:12:29
Matt Sinclair
they didn't really have much of a thought through policy platform.
00:12:33
Matt Sinclair
I mean, great British energy, sort of fine, but wildly costly, silly at a time where even Tony Blair is coming out against this idea of net zero.
00:12:43
Matt Sinclair
you kind of think, well, that not really thought through, no real idea of where they wanted to stand on the international stage.
00:12:49
Matt Sinclair
Starmer did such a job trying to tackle this sort of anti-Semitic, Corbynista side of the party as he came in and sort of cleanse out the Labour Party brand that,
00:12:59
debatablediscussions
Thank you.
00:12:59
Matt Sinclair
He didn't have much of a vision of where he stood on foreign policy, although I think that, bizarrely, Ukraine has been one of his strengths.
00:13:08
Matt Sinclair
So they had no real policies. Then they got into government and they started having to make tough decisions.
00:13:13
Matt Sinclair
So they said, winter fuel, we're going to cut that because, you know, countries bust, as they would say, there's this 27 or whatever it was, 33 or 500 million pound, billion pound black hole, who knows?
00:13:23
Matt Sinclair
So they went, Winterfield, we're going cut that. And then that got a lot of backlash.
00:13:28
Matt Sinclair
And all of a sudden, this governing thing's a little bit difficult. Well, I tell you what, Rachel Reeves will sort it out in her October budget.
00:13:35
Matt Sinclair
Well, we'll raise employers' national insurance because that's not quite going against what we said in the general election where we said we wouldn't raise national insurance because what we really meant was we wouldn't raise employee national insurance.
00:13:46
Matt Sinclair
So they're sort of skirting around the edges of credulity there. And then all of a sudden the bond markets don't like that. Oh, well, I think that might downgrade your growth. I tell you what, hiring is going to slow down. People's real-term pay rises will stop. And then all of a sudden, cost the borrowing in in January shoots through the roof.
00:14:02
Matt Sinclair
And then what's the next thing? We need to find some more money. Well, But the welfare reform bill will push that through, which is, I believe, an inherently conservative policy, by the way, and something that should have been pushed through.
00:14:14
Matt Sinclair
But oh, no, the backbench backlash.
00:14:16
Matt Sinclair
Here we go again. Governing's difficult, isn't it, Starmer? It's not just a case of having the adults in the room. And he's clearly losing control of his backbenches who now hold the whip hands over any sort of welfare reform.
00:14:30
Matt Sinclair
So...
00:14:31
Matt Sinclair
I think really it's been what has been missing throughout all of this year a vision that they never set out in the general election, because it was just if you get us back in, we're not the Tories, therefore everything will be fine.
00:14:44
Matt Sinclair
Whereas if all decisions tied through and were working towards an end goal or an end vision, then he would have...
00:14:44
Dejan
lotic
00:14:53
Matt Sinclair
so much more of a of command over over his back benches. He would have more of a platform to drive through the changes that he wants, but he doesn't have that.
Emergence of New Political Parties: Corbyn and Reform UK
00:15:04
Matt Sinclair
So they're kind of being battered around by the tide of events.
00:15:08
Matt Sinclair
And I think that has been the main cause of Starmer's first year in office. And if you want to touch on reform and Corbyn's new party next, we can.
00:15:18
debatablediscussions
I was going to say, but the phrase I saw, which very sort of accurately sums up what you said to to there, Matt, is that Keir Starmer has had more flip flops than Bondi Beach.
00:15:29
debatablediscussions
And I think it's that whole idea of what does the Labour Party and what does Keir Starmer stand for anymore?
00:15:29
Matt Sinclair
Yeah.
00:15:35
debatablediscussions
The welfare reform bill just seemed very conservative to me.
00:15:39
debatablediscussions
wasn't really totally sure why he was doing it. He's got a party which, as Ian Dale said on our podcast a few months ago, is far too large to manage. You know, he can't even sort of manage and contain his own party.
00:15:43
Dejan
of
00:15:48
Dejan
yeah. This is an opportunity.
00:15:51
debatablediscussions
It's just totally, it's going to be tricky situation.
00:15:51
Matt Sinclair
Yeah.
00:15:55
debatablediscussions
And this is an opportunity for Jeremy Corbyn and him and Zahra Sultana's new party.
00:16:02
debatablediscussions
How do you think this will perform? Will this harm the Tories?
00:16:05
debatablediscussions
I mean, it will definitely harm Labour.
00:16:09
Matt Sinclair
I actually, I don't see it lasting, is my honest opinion.
00:16:11
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:16:15
Matt Sinclair
I think that... The real sort of slightly amazing thing at at the moment with reform is the fact that despite, you know, Rupert Lowe and some other internal issues here and there, Zia Youssef sort of resigning and then coming back, the fact that they have managed to hold that sort of right wing, if you like, originally splinter party together is quite impressive in itself.
00:16:32
Dejan
like
00:16:38
Matt Sinclair
because normally these things find a way of imploding.
00:16:42
Matt Sinclair
And I would say that is especially true of the left. So I think Corbyn is such a volatile character.
00:16:49
Matt Sinclair
I think the sort of left of the Labour Party are so, so split over issues of Gaza, of welfare back at home, of tax,
00:17:00
Matt Sinclair
that actually there's no way that party will hold itself together.
00:17:04
Matt Sinclair
I don't think Corbyn carries the sort of cult of personality that Farage does.
00:17:09
Matt Sinclair
I don't think he has the communication skills.
00:17:12
Matt Sinclair
You know, Reform fundamentally is a one-man band behind Farage and he just has the charisma to just about be able to hold together
00:17:21
Matt Sinclair
four or a a five MPs and his membership, right?
00:17:24
Matt Sinclair
I don't believe that Corbyn or Zoltana can do So I don't really see the party being much of a threat. I think the Greens, so the left of Labour, are far more of a threat.
00:17:28
Dejan
that
00:17:34
debatablediscussions
right.
00:17:36
Matt Sinclair
I think they've come out and made their position...
00:17:39
Matt Sinclair
on foreign issues such as Gaza quite clear.
00:17:42
Matt Sinclair
I think that would be far more of a sort of a voter that was inclined to vote for the Corbynista party might look at the Greens as being a far more sensible option that still stands for the issues that they believe
00:17:57
Dejan
it
00:17:57
Matt Sinclair
What I would say is this is a very small minority of the country and is not really voter base that would ever consider voting for the Conservatives anyway.
00:18:07
Matt Sinclair
So in answer to to that, I don't think it's a huge threat to the Conservatives or to reform.
00:18:13
Matt Sinclair
I think it might be a slight threat to the Greens, but I don't really see it being an issue because fundamentally, I think it will implode in one way or another in the way that reformers threaten to do, but it's just about carried on.
00:18:26
Dejan
Well, I want to challenge you on that a little bit because, know, I'm reading sort of the news right now and the membership figures are a bit, everywhere from 80,000 all the way to 250,000 members.
00:18:36
Matt Sinclair
Thank you.
00:18:39
Dejan
Some even say 300,000 members, but let's assume it's about 200,000 members in two days. Jeremy Corbyn has managed to get more votes than Keir Starmer in his previous sort of elections.
00:18:52
Dejan
And I do think they're running on a pretty clear campaign of being pro-Palestine and for high taxes, which the sort of, not, you know, the sort more left-wing ideologically base of the Labour Party, I think, would subscribe to.
00:19:04
Matt Sinclair
Thank you.
00:19:07
Dejan
So the question there really is, will people who would have voted Labour but just don't like the leadership migrate over to Corbyn because he is back that old face who's managed to get votes?
00:19:22
Dejan
and who's pretty clear on issues. I don't think it's more of an ideological thing here.
00:19:27
Matt Sinclair
I think this is where people in the Labour Party have to be really careful because they have a tendency to forget what the Labour Party became under Corbyn with serious issues of anti-Semitism.
00:19:41
Matt Sinclair
really serious issues. so And all of a sudden, sort of six years later, people seem to have forgot that that threatened at one point to sort of almost end the Labour Party as it was.
00:19:53
Matt Sinclair
It took Starmer probably two and a half years to just about get over that
00:19:58
Matt Sinclair
that tag of Labour being this sort of anti-Semitic party. So yes, they may have membership numbers. These left wing sort of parties always tend to, I mean, when Codron got voted in 2015, 2016, and Labour were putting membership out for about two to four pounds or something ridiculously low and membership shot up.
00:20:18
Dejan
go
00:20:19
Matt Sinclair
Back in the day, Labour to have well over a million members when it was properly tied into the trade unions.
00:20:24
Matt Sinclair
So these sort of causes always galvanize a certain base, a very vocal, very active base within the country.
00:20:32
Matt Sinclair
But I don't think membership numbers really are that telling of where the country is at.
00:20:39
Matt Sinclair
If the left of the Labour Party, the Labour Parliamentary Party, as it is now, are tempted with going over to that Corbynista side, I think they will really have another thing coming.
00:20:50
Matt Sinclair
And, you know, particularly within those
00:20:54
Matt Sinclair
those voter areas that are maybe slightly more sympathetic to Israel are not quite so engaged with foreign policy.
00:21:02
Matt Sinclair
I think there's vast waves of the country outside of the metropolitan urban areas where the issue of Gaza and Palestine,
00:21:11
Matt Sinclair
What's very important, and let's not gloss over that, what's very important, really is probably five, six, seven or outside the top ten of their list of priorities. So it may do very well for them in North London, in the Islington set area, or may do very well in some other parts of urban Britain.
00:21:30
Matt Sinclair
But outside of that, their ability to gain any traction...
00:21:34
Matt Sinclair
I don't think it will.
00:21:35
Matt Sinclair
I think they will suffer from almost what UKIP did, where they will be very concentrated at a pockets and unable to pick up up many, many seats or many votes outside of that, because it's just not an issue for your everyman within the wider country compared to costs of living or immigration or even things like Ukraine, I would say, potentially sit higher or relations with the
00:21:39
Dejan
very a up
00:22:01
Matt Sinclair
and And that's where reform probably are doing very well because they're standing up for what the old Labour Party, you know, the Labour Party of Wilson used to stand for, the sort of and pride and pride pride pride pride in our country, but big states, high spending, sort of old
Nigel Farage's Political Evolution
00:22:21
Matt Sinclair
fashioned patriotic
00:22:22
Dejan
bicy
00:22:23
Matt Sinclair
That is where reform now sits.
00:22:25
Matt Sinclair
They're the Labour Party of Harold Wilson in a bizarre kind of juxtaposition about turn that Farage has managed to do.
00:22:33
Matt Sinclair
Instead of being this radical right wing, he's become this sort of Wilson-esque figure and no one seems to have questioned him as he's crossed the massive economic divide between where he used to sit and where he sits now.
00:22:46
Matt Sinclair
mean he's the most pro-nationalisation individual in parliament from what I can tell.
00:22:48
Dejan
And
00:22:52
Matt Sinclair
It's wild. So I don't think, going back to your Corman party point, that's where I sit on it and I don't think many on the left of the Labour parliamentary party will actually make that transfer over because I think it would take maybe one or two conversations to remind them of what it was like under Corbyn to maybe them in their place.
00:23:13
debatablediscussions
And I was going to say, I do agree with what of of you said there and sort of almost amalgamate your arguments.
00:23:15
Dejan
I
00:23:20
debatablediscussions
I think Corbyn will be very popular amongst young people who, as you said, Matt, probably don't have that experience of him as leader of the Labour Party. And there are sort of young people quite politically and ideologically motivated people who are concerned with this Gaza issue.
00:23:39
debatablediscussions
However, these are young people who don't really represent the average person in the United Kingdom.
00:23:42
Dejan
I think that's a struggle.
00:23:46
debatablediscussions
And I think that is where Corbyn will thrive amongst young people who perhaps aren't as much confronting things like the cost of living crisis.
00:23:54
debatablediscussions
Whereas I do think
00:23:56
debatablediscussions
I think, as you said there, I mean, I can remember when I was young and you'd always see anti-Semitism with Corbyn.
00:24:01
debatablediscussions
There was huge distaste amongst the party surrounding his leadership.
00:24:06
debatablediscussions
So I think perhaps longer term Labour voters will struggle.
00:24:10
debatablediscussions
But the young people who are quite ideologically and politically motivated, they will like Corbyn.
00:24:17
Matt Sinclair
They – Possibly, probably will.
00:24:21
Matt Sinclair
But then there are other areas that we can go and compensate.
00:24:24
Matt Sinclair
This was the man that wanted to get rid of our nuclear deterrent and that wanted to lower defence spending.
00:24:27
Dejan
new
00:24:30
Matt Sinclair
Now, in the world as it is now, does that seem like a sensible thing to do?
00:24:35
debatablediscussions
Yeah. Yeah.
00:24:35
Matt Sinclair
Would any of them be behind that? Even our youngsters who I believe, according to the Times, did a massive survey on views across Britain, I think it was about two months ago.
00:24:45
Matt Sinclair
And unanimously, everyone is in favour of higher defence spending.
00:24:46
Dejan
could be
00:24:50
Matt Sinclair
So, you know, you can go with Corbyn on that lunatic of a policy and he's for raising taxes.
00:24:56
Matt Sinclair
Well, who's he going to raise taxes on?
00:24:58
Matt Sinclair
Because I don't think we can squeeze out any more from, you this idea of a wealth tax that's being floated by the likes of Neil Kinnock of late.
00:25:06
Matt Sinclair
Who's actually going to pay for that?
00:25:07
Matt Sinclair
Because the pay 26% of income tax in this country.
00:25:12
Matt Sinclair
And as we're seeing...
00:25:13
Matt Sinclair
Britain is the number one place for millionaires leaving the country.
00:25:17
Matt Sinclair
So there's not really much more juice to squeeze out of the top 1% of the top 5%.
00:25:21
Matt Sinclair
So when he talks about raising taxes, he's talking about raising it on working people, on taking pennies and pounds out of your pocket and out of my pocket to pay for more welfare.
00:25:33
Matt Sinclair
So we're going to essentially become under his vision, a welfare state with an economy attached on the side, trundling along, which will eventually run out of petrol and that petrol being willing taxpayers.
00:25:35
Dejan
is
00:25:46
Matt Sinclair
So I think, you know, it's not just the anti-Semitism issue with Corbyn, although I feel that is the strongest.
00:25:52
Matt Sinclair
There are so many basic sort of nonsensical policies
00:25:56
Matt Sinclair
that really should just resign this man to the history books of politics as the failed Labour Party leader that he was.
00:26:04
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:26:05
Dejan
What do you think is the big difference between Corbyn and Farage? I mean, you said that UKIP used to be this sort of centred organisation, but now Farage, from what I can see, has managed to sort of make reform into a national phenomenon.
00:26:22
Dejan
Why do you think that is? What you think changed?
00:26:25
Matt Sinclair
Barrage is, I think, far, far,
00:26:31
Matt Sinclair
has far greater political instincts.
00:26:33
Matt Sinclair
He's a far better communicator.
00:26:36
Matt Sinclair
don't think anyone would disagree with that, his ability to get cut through.
00:26:39
Matt Sinclair
No one in the country comes close. I really don't think they do. And he listens.
00:26:45
Matt Sinclair
Corbyn is very set in his views, which I believe to be completely the wrong views. And the country has failed to give him a majority twice. And in 2019, he got completely slapped down. So I think everyone's in agreement on that.
00:26:59
Matt Sinclair
Farage has moved from where he was under UKIP to being relatively single issue, struggling to hold together a party that had some loonies
00:27:09
Matt Sinclair
He's moved himself from that very, very right wing view, got Brexit over the line.
00:27:16
Matt Sinclair
And, im you know, whatever people say, that would never have happened without Nigel Farage.
00:27:22
Matt Sinclair
And now he's moved himself, he's made reform into a genuinely kind of, as I say, Wilson-esque party.
00:27:28
Matt Sinclair
Farage of 2007 was never pro-nationalisation to the extent that he is now.
00:27:38
Matt Sinclair
So he's moved his sort of economic base to this sort
00:27:42
Dejan
stay
00:27:44
Matt Sinclair
of view where he's not against slightly higher tax he's not against nationalization whilst he he talks that he wants lower taxes i think in reality he wants to nationalize he wants a big state but he's also very very conservative or you know socially conservative on immigration and other social policies you know and pride pride in country
00:28:08
Matt Sinclair
So he sort of amalgamated the large state economic agenda with this sort of social conservatism in the same way that Donald Trump has
00:28:17
Dejan
stuff
00:28:18
Matt Sinclair
You know, he is, look at the big, beautiful bill.
00:28:21
Matt Sinclair
Donald Trump is a large stater. He wants more defense spending. He wants, you know, more tax cuts, but also spending increases. He wants to borrow his way to do that.
00:28:31
Matt Sinclair
And actually, if you read reforms manifesto going into 2024 general election,
00:28:36
Matt Sinclair
It was mental economically.
00:28:38
Matt Sinclair
I mean, it was tax cuts and spending rises like you wouldn't believe.
00:28:41
Matt Sinclair
The bond markets would have had absolutely none of it and we would have bankrupted the country instantly.
00:28:46
Matt Sinclair
But very few people other than myself actually bothered to read the manifesto.
00:28:49
Matt Sinclair
But that's by the by because it was economic fantasy land. But what Nigel Farage is doing is tapping into that Trump-esque, actually people want the big state selling point, we're cut your taxes, we're going increase spending, we're going to to increase the size of the state fundamentally, but actually we are going to hammer down on social issues, mainly immigration.
00:29:10
Matt Sinclair
But ah other social issues around sort of wokeness as well is is quite a strong point, certainly is quite a strong point, certainly is for Trump.
00:29:17
Matt Sinclair
So I think Farage, unlike Corbyn, has managed to perform this sort of shape-shifting process
00:29:22
Matt Sinclair
economic trick where he's moved and he's kept his social policies firmly in the conservative side but he's moved himself over to the to the left on economics
00:29:33
Dejan
Just backing on that, do you think that the sort of far right nowadays is far right on social issues, but quite liberal on economic issues?
00:29:47
debatablediscussions
Yeah.
00:29:47
Dejan
is Which is because...
00:29:49
Matt Sinclair
Absolutely. Absolutely.
00:29:51
Dejan
I would...
00:29:51
Matt Sinclair
I mean,
00:29:51
Dejan
Yeah. Yeah.
00:29:52
Matt Sinclair
Politics is a circle, right? So, you know, you go so far right, you end up on the left. um And I think we're approaching that point.
00:30:01
Matt Sinclair
And I wouldn't say liberal on the economic issues.
00:30:04
Matt Sinclair
I would say bordering on socialists.
00:30:07
Matt Sinclair
I think liberal economics to me is almost what I view myself as, which is free trader, but not at the expense of national security.
00:30:17
Matt Sinclair
It small states.
00:30:19
Matt Sinclair
It is... prudence at home.
00:30:22
Matt Sinclair
So it's, you know, cutting taxes, but doing that in a controlled way, not in the list, list trusts, you know, mini budget disaster kind of way.
00:30:30
Matt Sinclair
It's about doing all of this in a prudent step by step way, getting towards a free trade position, growing the economy through innovation, government subsidies being very, very targeted as and where they need to be.
00:30:42
Matt Sinclair
So not, not complete
00:30:44
Matt Sinclair
free trade government gets out the way, but just being very prudent and smart about where the state does exist.
00:30:50
Matt Sinclair
And that's why I believe, you know, almost bringing this conversation full circle, the Conservatives will always be fine and will always have that USP because we are the only party that offers that genuinely small state economic vision to go with the social conservative stuff.
00:30:52
Dejan
Okay.
00:31:07
Matt Sinclair
So we are far more prudent, whereas Faraz, whilst people think always to the right of the Conservatives, he's really not.
00:31:13
Matt Sinclair
He's a left-wing party that just is really strong on immigration.
00:31:18
Matt Sinclair
And that's it.
00:31:18
Matt Sinclair
Whereas the Conservatives, when people actually think about it, and we will come out with more policies, particularly on the social front,
00:31:25
Matt Sinclair
But we are the only small state offering.
00:31:29
Matt Sinclair
And in the United States, I think reform almost comes out of what happens in the states ripples across the pond and comes to us.
00:31:36
Matt Sinclair
They don't have a
Conservative Party's Unique Economic Position
00:31:37
Matt Sinclair
small state offering at the moment in the way that sort of Reagan was, for example, because Trump definitely isn't that.
00:31:44
Matt Sinclair
And at the moment, no one knows what the Democrats stand for.
00:31:48
Matt Sinclair
So I do think that actually that extreme right that you call it, they're not liberal economics.
00:31:53
Matt Sinclair
economically, they are socialist economically and very, very strong, you know, strong conservatives on the social issues, which is why I think so many on the right of the Conservative Party are kind of tempted by them.
00:32:08
Matt Sinclair
Those that maybe put the social issues slightly higher than they do the economic issues, you know.
00:32:14
Matt Sinclair
And for me, I'm very clear. I'm a chartered accountant.
00:32:17
Matt Sinclair
My dad works in banking.
00:32:18
Matt Sinclair
My brother works in finance. My mum works in banking, you know. through my background, I probably put the arguments at the very top of any decision I make politically.
00:32:23
Dejan
acknowledge
00:32:28
Matt Sinclair
I can't help but do that.
00:32:30
Matt Sinclair
It's almost in my nature.
00:32:32
Matt Sinclair
So therefore, for me, you know, the reform option is nonsense. It always has to be the Conservatives, the genuinely small state offering.
00:32:41
Matt Sinclair
And that's why there will always be a future of the Conservative Party.
00:32:44
Matt Sinclair
But I do understand where Fara's and where reform have pivoted to.
00:32:48
Matt Sinclair
They're inhabiting the old space that Labour sort used to inhabit pre-Blair, which I think a whole of the Northern Wall, the Red Wall, were wanting and were crying out for, which under Blair and then under Corbyn, they feel they never had.
00:33:07
debatablediscussions
And as you earlier alluded to, Matt, I think the main sort problem always had with Farage is this, not only his sort of economic fantasy land, as he said there, but also imperatively, there is a gap between what Farage wants to do and what he can do.
00:33:23
debatablediscussions
And I think he's got sort of...
00:33:26
Dejan
this
00:33:27
debatablediscussions
as he said, slightly dreamlike ideas of of of how we'd be in office, which are not at all politically aligned with what he says to be.
00:33:36
debatablediscussions
And so the main question, and our final question perhaps will be, Farage has been saying the Tories have been sort of of wilting under this threat of reform, but how long do you think it will be before the Tories perhaps show their economic promise
00:33:52
debatablediscussions
and how they offer this small
Conservatives' Prospects in the Next Election
00:33:53
debatablediscussions
state solution and how long will it be before the Tories, in your opinion, back in office?
00:33:59
Matt Sinclair
I think see no reason why we can't win the next general election.
00:34:04
Matt Sinclair
I really don't. I know a lot of people going say he's mental, he's mad.
00:34:08
Matt Sinclair
But once we sort of really develop a good, solid, detailed policy platform, which we're nearly done with, but no one wants to hear it from us right now,
00:34:18
Matt Sinclair
But we're nearly done with that.
00:34:20
Matt Sinclair
And more more scrutiny goes on what Faraz starts to say, particularly on the economic front, because that's where I think we can pin him.
00:34:27
Matt Sinclair
That's where I think we can really, really do him on that economic front.
00:34:31
Matt Sinclair
And the more that the reform councils start to fail,
00:34:35
Matt Sinclair
And the Doge departments, you know, fame that there's this X amount of government waste, you know, the more that people start to realise that there isn't that much government waste.
00:34:44
Matt Sinclair
It's not waste in the sense of money's literally being, you know, burned.
00:34:49
Matt Sinclair
It might be poor political decisions, but, you know, look at Elon Musk's Doge department.
00:34:54
Matt Sinclair
They fail to find even a fraction of what they expected to find.
00:34:58
Matt Sinclair
So once you see those Doge departments of reform start to fail and they realise it's actually just about...
00:35:04
Matt Sinclair
poor management, of which I don't believe reform are able to plug that gap, then I think people will start to find them out.
00:35:12
Matt Sinclair
I think, you know, we just need the Conservatives to put forward this policy platform, be it in six months time or you three months time or nine months time.
00:35:22
Matt Sinclair
And then as we get closer and closer to the next general, people will start asking more questions of reforms economic policy.
00:35:29
Matt Sinclair
They'll be reminded of what I hate to say, under Liz's trust, what happens when you reckless with tax cutting and increasing spending.
00:35:29
Dejan
happens
00:35:35
Matt Sinclair
They might see the impacts of the Big Beautiful Bill across the pond and what that does to US debt prices.
00:35:42
Matt Sinclair
And I think there is absolutely no reason why the Conservatives can't win the next general election.
00:35:46
Matt Sinclair
And I'm absolutely here for it. And most importantly, we're going to win back Hammersmith and Fulham Council next May.
00:35:53
Matt Sinclair
I'm convinced of that.
00:35:54
Matt Sinclair
And it starts here.
00:35:56
debatablediscussions
And yes, if you are listening from Hammersmith and Fulham, do watch out for Matt.
00:35:56
Dejan
Thank very much.
00:36:00
debatablediscussions
I'm sure you're very active. Well, we know for a fact that you are one of the most active Tory campaigners. So I'm sure there'll be seeing more.
00:36:07
Matt Sinclair
And if you want to give my Twitter a follow, it's msinclairhfc.
00:36:12
Matt Sinclair
So please do.
00:36:14
Matt Sinclair
There's lots to dive into on there, particularly on local issues, but also on national.
00:36:18
Matt Sinclair
So please do. And gentlemen, thank you very much for putting up with me for 40 minutes or so.
00:36:23
debatablediscussions
No, right.
00:36:24
debatablediscussions
It's been great have you on. Yeah. Thank you very much.
00:36:25
Dejan
Thank you, Matt.
00:36:27
Dejan
Thank you.
00:36:27
Matt Sinclair
Thank you.
00:36:28
Dejan
week.
00:36:28
Matt Sinclair
both.