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MIDFIELDERS! - Top 8, Value Premiums and Mid-Pricers! #PODPOD
3.5k Plays12 days ago
It seems as though the midfield line is the last line being filled in our fantasy sides this year, with value presenting in defence and then the decisions to be made around the forwards and rucks. Some coaches are spending up in the mids, whilst others are looking at potentially 4 rookies on field! How you structure up will be crucial for success in AFL Fantasy this year! Don’t worry, the lads talk through strategy and structure as well as all of the relevant starting options in the midfield!
In this episode, the panel discusses everything you need to know in terms of the midfield line. Jordy gives who he thinks are the top 8 averaging midfielders broken down by tiers, the panel discusses the top end premiums who they believe still present upside, under-priced premiums who can hopefully take the next step and score in-line with the top 8 and then discuss a whole bunch of listener requests.
The PODPOD is brought to you by Moreira’s Magic in 2026. All Holmes Files episodes will be available exclusively as a part of the 2026 Season Guide. As well as the podcasts, the Season Guide will also include:
- Player profiles and comments for all players in the AFL
- Best 22’s from the MM team
- Draft rankings
- DVP
- Strength of schedule
- Market Share
- Podcasts with Selby and Xavier Ellis
- Much much more!
The guide is now live! A must have for any serious Fantasy coach head over to moreirasmagic.com.au/ to order now! The guide will be updated right up until the start of round 1 and the in-season content begins
Follow us on X:
The PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Lewy: @AFLewy
Harmey: @jonharmey
Dos: @HKdos
Sam: @grillis03
Jordy: @jordandsena
Dossy: @HKdos
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction and Panel Setup
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod brought to you by Marrera's Magic. I'm your host Holmesy, two-time runner-up and three-time top 10 finisher in AFL Fantasy Classic.
00:00:30
Holmesy
We have a full panel on deck today for the next of our positional previews and we are talking the big dog midfielders this week. As always, I have two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019, Jonathan Harmy here to talk about his Bombers boys. Harmy, mate, how are you?
00:00:45
Jon Harmey
Going well, thanks, Host Holmes here, and looking forward to Geordie stepping up and telling us how it's done in the yeah midfield today.
Geordie's Viral Moment
00:00:54
Holmesy
Yep, really looking forward to that. And we do have the perennial top 1K finisher here as always, Louis. Welcome.
00:01:02
Lew
Thanks for having me mate. Good to be here.
00:01:05
Holmesy
And before we get ah to our next panel member, Jordi, Louis, you brought to the attention ah the group chat today where one of our own, Jordi, has been a little bit rattled by some ah some talk in the media. Why don't you take us through that?
00:01:23
Lew
Yes, yeah. Poor Geordie, honestly. um Geordie's been doing some good work this preseason. He's he's one of those nuffies that goes out to preseason trainings. You would never catch me doing something as silly as that, but...
00:01:38
Lew
um So he's posted on Twitter and he's done us all a favor as fantasy coaches. He's just filling us in on all the info, see all the boys look at port training. And he's just made an innocent little comment that Mitch Georgiades was in the midfield. And Kane Corns has grabbed this headline.
00:01:58
Lew
And to quote Kane Corns, let me just find this message. What has he said here to you, Geordie? he's He's called you a silly man.
00:02:08
JORDAN D_SENA
He's told me to calm down.
00:02:09
Lew
He's told you to calm down. Yeah, I'm going to have to get this exact quote because he has absolutely roasted you here. When it comes to the dumbest thing you've seen or read this preseason, that would have to be right up there.
Media Fallout Discussion
00:02:22
Lew
So, Jordy, what have you done to piss Kane Corns off?
00:02:23
JORDAN D_SENA
yeah
00:02:26
Lew
he He's really singled you out here.
00:02:28
Jon Harmey
He hasn't listened to many of podcasts in this pre-season, has he?
00:02:29
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah.
00:02:33
JORDAN D_SENA
That's it. Well, yeah, I mean, he's gone on SEN, which is pretty awesome that the article has – well, the the tweet's gone that far. So that's a good thing. Sort of gone viral. And 7 AFL as well, Poe did a little thing. They were calling Georgiades Portsloop Jackson. so But, yeah, I saw that tweet and – or that article and, yeah, i thought it was a bit harsh. But that's all right. At least he he's keeping – yeah, keeping an eye on it. So – um Yeah, anyway, we'll move we'll move forward.
00:03:04
Lew
A bit harsh when you see some of these...
00:03:05
Holmesy
we are ah We are a big fan.
00:03:06
Lew
ah
00:03:06
Holmesy
Cain, if you are listening, always happy to have you on the show to give Geordie a right of reply. and How's that, mate? Just going down, taking a few videos, and you get that drive-by from the great man himself.
00:03:17
Holmesy
So stick with it, Geordie.
Value in M1/M2 Players
00:03:20
Holmesy
We need you doing what you're doing.
00:03:20
JORDAN D_SENA
I'll probably go down Friday.
00:03:22
Holmesy
um So, yeah.
00:03:26
Holmesy
I love that.
00:03:26
Lew
I think you're a bit stiff too, mate, because some of what these journos are putting out there on Twitter is a little bit of a muckrake themselves. So yeah, I think you're a bit unlucky there.
00:03:36
Jon Harmey
Probably just jealousy. He didn't break the story. Geordie, just while we're talking about it, because I know we moved off defenders last week, any yeah update on Kane Farrell and this starting in your round one fantasy side?
00:03:49
JORDAN D_SENA
He's not in my round one side, but he did actually look pretty good. He's doing a couple of pretty attacking kicks in the middle. um But whether that's going to be fantasy or not, don't know. But they, you know, i mean, last preseason, he he did have that hamstring, so he didn't have a full preseason. So there might be some upside there. I'll definitely keep an eye on it.
00:04:08
Jon Harmey
Thanks, mate.
00:04:08
Lew
any yeah Any zigzags? Do you just see any zigzags out there?
00:04:12
JORDAN D_SENA
Butters was zigging and zagging everywhere.
00:04:16
Lew
That's what we love to hear.
00:04:16
JORDAN D_SENA
He basically got the ball and just took on the whole team. And then as soon as he gets tackled, oh, he does handball it. Like, he's just, he's a weapon.
00:04:24
Holmesy
just ah two points for that. Geordie, we're not playing super coach, mate.
00:04:28
JORDAN D_SENA
Exactly.
00:04:30
Holmesy
All right, so what we're doing today is we're getting stuck into the midfielders. We're going to start with Jordy's projections for what he believes the top eight mids are going to be for the season. Now, obviously, this can change throughout the year. Why this is important is we typically are trying to find an M1 or maybe even an M2 that comes in at value that might potentially push the top eight.
Top Midfield Picks: Bailey Smith and Errol Goulden
00:04:51
Holmesy
So Jordy's going to give us a bit of a list here of his top eight mids. We'll have a bit of a discussion and then we'll get into the rest of the pod. So Jordy, the floor is yours.
00:05:00
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, awesome. ah So, yeah, obviously I missed last week, but I liked how Harmi sort of split their defenders in sort of higher tiers and middle tier and sort of a lower tier. So I've sort of done that same with the midfielders. So I've put a the first, I've got five players basically that I've gone at, I think, and got 108 plus. Now that could be quite low from what we've seen.
00:05:22
JORDAN D_SENA
um You know, obviously Baz did 116, but I think 108 plus is sort of the top tier that I've put in there. And I've got five players that I've put in there.
00:05:32
JORDAN D_SENA
And basically I'd be pretty happy with any of these five, I think at some point in the year to trade into. So M1, I've got Bailey Smith.
00:05:43
JORDAN D_SENA
Now, obviously last year went 116, amazing year. find it a bit hard to not see him going over 108 plus. I think, um Yeah, I think if he plays with his tank and everything, if he's going to play, he's going to find the ball. And I think with the Cats, you're probably going to tag Max Holmes, bit more damaging. Baz isn't really the best by foot. So I think even if he did get a tag, Bailey Smith, he could probably shake that tag just with his aerobic capacity. So I think he's a pretty safe top mid. So I've got him there at M1 based on what he's done last year.
00:06:26
Holmesy
Yep. Yep. Keep going, Jordy.
00:06:29
JORDAN D_SENA
M2, I've put here Errol Goulden. So this is a guy that this last year came back from that ankle and averaged 102, which was I thought was pretty impressive.
00:06:45
JORDAN D_SENA
um I put him here ah wanted to at M2 because last year or the year before he went at 108 and the year before that 112. one twelve So I find it hard to not see him going between 108 and 112.
00:07:00
JORDAN D_SENA
I also think that the new Ruck rules, and the lasso rule as a winger. I just think he's just going to get that easy ball. He's going to get that plus three, or he might get that free kick on the boundary, then he gets an extra plus three in the chain.
00:07:10
Jon Harmey
Please.
00:07:17
JORDAN D_SENA
I just think he is a really good pick, and I think he can he could potentially push M1, but I've got him there at M2 at the moment at 108+.
00:07:27
Holmesy
Yeah, it's it's interesting, Jordy, because in terms of the primos, he's the second highest owned so far behind Zach Butters. we're going to get to these players a little bit later on.
00:07:38
Holmesy
um Super interesting, Errol, in all career games that he's had above 40% set of bounces in the last three years, he's played 21 games for a 113 average.
00:07:49
Holmesy
So if we're projecting that he has that inside-outside role where he gets the 40% roughly CBAs and then he's able to get the ball on the outside, history shows that he's got that potential to go 113 and he probably hasn't hit his ceiling yet. So I suppose, Harmi, the big question here is, can you start him priced at 102 with an early buy?
00:08:09
Jon Harmey
ah you can't You could start him. um Depends on what the rest of your team is looking like. Obviously, that early buy will deter some, but by the looks of what Geordie is telling us right there, he's going up from his ah current price of $1.02 in theory.
00:08:28
Holmesy
Yep, I really like the Errol pick.
Assessing Bontempelli and Dawson
00:08:31
Holmesy
Jordy, m three
00:08:34
JORDAN D_SENA
M3, I've got Marcus Spontempelli. So ah find it hard to not say, don't think he's going to regress. I think he's obviously the main man the Dogs midfield.
00:08:45
JORDAN D_SENA
They're going to be pushing for probably top four, maybe a flag with that list that they got. I don't see things changing too much there. um With Bond, obviously, yeah, he's hard to tag as well. He can obviously go forward. he can He obviously marks, tackles, kicks goals. So I think he just goes as he has. And I think that was 1-11 last year. So I'll put him in this category as well at M3.
00:09:09
JORDAN D_SENA
And a guy behind him, Jordan Dawson, who's pretty similar, I've got him at M4. Similar type player, number one mid at their team, challenging for finals and a flag.
00:09:20
JORDAN D_SENA
Don't really see his role changing either. And again, scores very similar to Bont as well, where hard to tag, marks, goals, all that around the ground.
00:09:35
Holmesy
Jordy, do you see a world where coaches will start a Jordan Dawson considering he's one of only, you know, one of maybe three out of this top eight that don't have an early buyer? Do you think there's any scope for value or do you think is he's fairly priced?
00:09:52
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, i just I think he's fairly priced. I think like with Dawson, he's is I think he's good for a whole year, but we saw he can sort of he's a bit of yo-yo sometimes.
Essendon Midfield Dynamics
00:10:02
JORDAN D_SENA
He can get like that 80, then he has a big ceiling score.
00:10:06
JORDAN D_SENA
I don't know, just for a starting pick, it's one that I'm not really looking at. You'd have to get him off to a hot start. i'm not sure if of his they run, the Crows, but I think he's fairly priced.
00:10:14
Holmesy
Yeah, so they go collingwood so they go Collingwood, Bulldogs, Geelong, Frio, Carlton. So looking at last year's DVP, not the not the best run to start, but for a Jordan Dawson, maybe you kind of prefer some of the tougher matchups. is He's not going to rest as much forward and whatnot, Louis.
00:10:33
Lew
The depth in the Adelaide midfield does concern me a little bit if I'm going to be paying up $110 price tag just because I think if you get on top of Jordan Dawson, we've seen that the Crows can start to to flail a little bit. And um if the Crows do improve, like many are thinking they will and and push into finals, I think yeah getting on top of a Jordan Dawson is certainly going to be high up the priority list of opposition coaches. So that would be what would turn me off of actually starting
Nick Dacos and Zach Butters' Potential
00:11:04
Lew
him. But I've got no doubt he's he's going to be well entrenched within that top eight mid-range. But the the thought of some floor scores early is what has me a little bit worried there.
00:11:15
Holmesy
Yeah, I think at the end of the year, we'll find him plus or minus three from his from his average at the moment. And he'll be someone that we look to target at some point throughout the year, but probably not a starter. Jordy, so we have Bailey Smith at M1, Errol at M2, Bont at M3, Dawson at M4. Who's your M5?
00:11:35
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, so to round out this group, I've gone Jai Caldwell here at M5. Now, this is based on just data over the last couple of years of how he can score. Obviously, he only had the 11 games last year, so he does have that injury concern. But in 21 games over the last two years, when he's had over 50% CBAs, he's gone 108. So that's where got at
00:12:02
JORDAN D_SENA
Now, even this year, if you remove some of the games where he came back from injury and that injured game where he had more than 60% CBAs, he went at 116.5. So he's that perfect player of, he could have 23 disposals and eight tackles and ton.
00:12:19
JORDAN D_SENA
He doesn't need disposals to get those tons. The only thing that concerns me is Essendon's midfield. ah just I don't know how that's going to look with Merritt and Parrish coming back.
00:12:32
JORDAN D_SENA
So maybe he can't get to the 108, but I've put him here because just based on data, I think that he should, well, I think he can push that average.
00:12:44
JORDAN D_SENA
He is priced about 103, so he could be value.
00:12:48
Holmesy
Harmi, as our ah Essendon expert on the panel, what do you see the Essendon midfield mix like?
00:12:56
Jon Harmey
Well, hold on a sec. Let's have a look at what it was last year when we had a choice. You had Caldwell at 65% of the CBAs when he was there. So he was already in there a heap.
00:13:10
Jon Harmey
was only Will Setterfield that was ahead of him, which won't be the case this year. So he should be our M1, as in be in the CBA rotation at the highest clock out of anybody
Jai Caldwell's Role and Fitness
00:13:21
Jon Harmey
from what I can see, Holmesy.
00:13:22
Jon Harmey
So the...
00:13:23
Holmesy
Does he have the body too, Harmi? He's been injury prone for throughout most of his career, right? Do you actually see him being able to play 70% plus CBAs and 80% time on ground as a full-time midfielder without breaking down?
00:13:37
Jon Harmey
Well, they're certainly going to give him every opportunity to, and I think that's what's important. If he gets injured, well, so be it. You'll deal with that same as you would any other player, and this year we have ah you know the 50% time on ground threshold, which will probably assist if there's an early injury for anybody. Geordie's got him at in that 108 bracket, which is pretty big. He's got the type of game that could potentially get there and is higher than what he's coming in price at.
00:14:05
Jon Harmey
No early buy. So um I don't mind that, Geordie.
00:14:10
Holmesy
Yep, definitely value for the what we've seen in in that role in the past. The one flag I will put in is that we didn't see it last year what a fit Darcy Parrish will do to that Essendon midfield.
00:14:24
Holmesy
And yes, Caldwell has he's improved and potentially gone past Parrish, but at the same time, they do like going back to Parrish in that midfield. yeah In 2024, so if you if you're a Marrera's Magic season guide holder on the with and without page, you can use that to have a look at stats with and without a player.
00:14:42
Holmesy
If we go back to 2024, Jai Caldwell in 12 games playing with Darcy Parrish had an 89 average from 41% centre bounces and then a 101 average from 11 games, 51% centre bounces without Parrish. Now, it's just a flag.
00:14:59
Holmesy
We don't know how that midfield is going to line up. that's That's my bit of caution on starting a Jai Caldwell at 104 price tag is that I'm not sure how Darcy Parrish is going to affect that midfield. harmy
00:15:12
Jon Harmey
Yeah, but I mean, that's two years ago. Caldwell was still finding his feet at the Bombers and he was only about 23. So I don't know if that's a the perfect reason to not select him.
00:15:25
Lew
Do we think Zach Merritt, he had his lowest AFL fantasy average since 2018. Do we think that's going to be a trend? He's going to hover around that 103 mark or are we thinking maybe he bumps back up to sort of the 108 plus that we've seen for for pretty much his whole career? Because... These points are starting to add up in that midfield with Coldwell at 104. Merritt's going to be 100 plus. And i think many would probably tell you that Darcy Parish might be north of sort of 95.
00:15:58
Lew
You know, it's all got to be divvied up, not to mention a Sam Durham who who's probably going to get plenty of opportunity. I do just wonder what the upside can look like, even though I'm super hot on the pick as well.
00:16:11
Jon Harmey
Well, Merritt last year averaged 103.
00:16:11
Holmesy
Yeah. Yeah.
00:16:15
Jon Harmey
Caldwell last year averaged about the same. So they both averaged over 100 last year. I think it's doable. I'm expecting a big year from Zach Merritt.
00:16:23
Lew
Yeah, but Merritt was out of the center bounce for a lot of it.
00:16:25
Holmesy
It's not saying that they can both average 100. It's just that we need one of them to go 110 to be value as a starting squad pick, right? So Merritt last year with Caldwell averaged 100 at only 58% centre bounces. Then without Caldwell, he was 108 with 75% centre bounces. So Merritt's average is bumped up with Caldwell not being there.
00:16:46
Holmesy
And he had that 145 that he played with Caldwell as well. But yeah, it's it's just fascinating. I've always been big on... multiple midfielders in the same side it's very difficult for them to average north of 110 and still have other 100 averaging players so yeah for me it's just interesting but i'm definitely keeping an eye on caldwell harmy the the stats there are when he gets the role he scores it's just we haven't seen it a lot over the last two years with all those midfielders in and it's a it's a new season
00:17:14
Jon Harmey
Yeah, those or without stats that you had there with Caldwell must have been when Merritt was playing in the back pocket for those couple of games and was terrible to watch.
00:17:24
Lew
Yeah, and look, to put an umbrella over all that, Nick Martin is definitely a massive fantasy hole in that team too. so that's all got to be spread around and maybe that's the avenue where where those points can be ah found.
00:17:37
Jon Harmey
Plus also with all our injuries in the second half of the year, the Bombers' fantasy points overall just fell in a complete hole.
00:17:46
Holmesy
There, you heard it here first. Essendon are winning the flag army.
00:17:49
Jon Harmey
Mm-hmm. Yep. yep
00:17:50
Holmesy
Jordy, let's go into your next tier.
00:17:53
JORDAN D_SENA
Yep, so this next tier, I've put two players in it and I put it 105 plus. And M6, I've got Nick Dacos here. So i was just looking on the fantasy, the new platform, and it's got him there as 106, but I think that's including some of the finals. So he should ah go over this. The reason I've just got him down a little bit here is just because of the tags.
00:18:18
JORDAN D_SENA
um He is obviously the number one tag target at ah the Pies. Now, I do see him improving, I think, this year, and there could be every chance that he goes into that top tier of 108 plus.
00:18:28
Jon Harmey
you
00:18:29
JORDAN D_SENA
It's just the tagging. And I think, I mean, there's talk that the Pies potentially may fall off and they might not be in the top eight. And maybe if they're not as competitive, maybe other teams don't start tagging Dacos as much as what they were this year. So I've just got him here at 105+.
00:18:48
JORDAN D_SENA
He is one that could definitely crack that top tier. But I've got him here... does have the early buy
Brisbane's Midfield Outlook
00:18:55
JORDAN D_SENA
as well. So he's just one that I'm sort of just happy to to wait and trade into um during the season.
00:19:02
Holmesy
it Priced at 108, Geordie, so you probably got him coming back a bit.
00:19:05
JORDAN D_SENA
Oh, yeah.
00:19:06
Holmesy
Lou, why don't you give us your thoughts on Dacos? I think the general consensus from the community would be that Dacos would be a little bit higher than M6 or M7, whatever Geordie has him at. So talk us through Dacos.
00:19:18
Lew
Oh, look, you know, we know what Nick Dacos is now. He's an elite accumulator. He's got massive time on ground. And let's be honest, he just does it all in that team. um What sort of hamstrings him is that tag target that you mentioned, Jordy. He is the best player in that team by a mile. And that's why we saw big 130 scores last year, but we also saw a lot of 70, 80 scores when someone was able to get on top of him. So,
00:19:44
Lew
That's probably what's stopping him from really breaking out into that 110-plus elite range. I think he can do it, but for me, at that price as a starting pick, it's one that I'd like to watch and and pick up when he's a little bit cheaper, which is what we've seen in previous years. You've been able to jump on him for a little bit of a discount. and um Yeah, that's probably where I'm at with Nick Dacos at the moment.
00:20:12
Holmesy
Yeah, nine games below 90, but then also nine games above 120. So has the ceiling. If he can raise the floor a bit with fighting through those tags or if less of them come, then we could definitely see him as the M1 at some point. But the the tag's going to be tricky and that does have that round two buy as well. So that's why many coaches aren't starting. Dacos, Jordy, who's next?
00:20:34
JORDAN D_SENA
The next guy is similar. I've put Zach Butters at M7. So again, is to can get the tag and we saw some terrible scores last year.
00:20:46
JORDAN D_SENA
I've got him here at 105 plus. The year before last year, he did go out of 106. So he's shown that he's done it before. does present value on his 99 price tag this year.
00:20:59
JORDAN D_SENA
just think with Butters, it's a contract year. i'm just I'm hoping he can do sort of what Nassaya did and just sort of let the footy do the talking and just not worry about it too much. And I'm sort of predicting Port's game style.
00:21:11
JORDAN D_SENA
Maybe there's are a few extra points where we talked about defence. So maybe he can just get a little bit more of that plus six. um And I think he can push... 105 plus, which has has put him in here at M7. So I think he's a really good starting pick.
00:21:27
JORDAN D_SENA
But yeah, I guess the tag is one of the reasons why um he's there. And I guess there's talk that he maybe he doesn't even get back to this 105 with the tag. But I think with the contract year and poor scam, so I think he can bounce back and be in this category as a top eight mid for us.
00:21:45
Holmesy
Yeah, he's been ah he's been a 104 averaging midfielder in 61 games since he went into the midfield in 2022, 2023, whenever it was. He's always been a scorer, but that 34 and the 46 that he had last year, Jordy, they're absolute killers.
00:22:01
Holmesy
They do have the good run to start, as every podcast has been talking about. So if you can get off to a flyer, um yeah're you're away to the races. I can see why he's popular. he's He's one of the most popularly owned or the most popularly owned premium on the AFL Fantasy website so far due to being unders and potentially presenting value as a top eight mid.
00:22:22
Holmesy
Harmi, is Budders this slam dunk pick that we think he is or can you can you pay play a little bit of devil's advocate here about why he might not work out?
00:22:31
Jon Harmey
Well, Jordy's been down at Port Training and seen him zigging and zagging and said he's going to go 105, and that's good enough for me. um ah I think he everything is pointing to him having a very good season. i think at at this point in time, I don't really have any reason to doubt that, um other than potentially a Josh Carr game plan change.
00:22:53
Jon Harmey
However... um the Ken Hinckley game plan wasn't really that fruitful anyway. So I just think that there's potential upside here. As Geordie sort of said with Dacos, Dacos and Butters, they could both be M1 in the game um if everything went their way. So Guy's got a fantasy game. He's been there and done it before. I i think that he should be a good pick for us.
00:23:18
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, I suppose, Harmi, they do have a good run to start. The way I've always played fantasy, I get nervous with starting too many players in the same team. If we're looking at a Rosie, Butters, Bergman, can we can we start them all?
00:23:33
Jon Harmey
You said you are, are you?
00:23:36
Holmesy
Well, don't normally, but is it something we can look at, having three midfielders in the same team, even though Rosie is potentially playing a bit of halfback as well?
00:23:45
Jon Harmey
All right, well, let's do this thing. So for every player that you're looking at picking in your starting lineup, you've got to have a reason as to why you think that they are going up in value, don't you?
Callaghan and Essendon's Prospects
00:23:57
Jon Harmey
So I think with Butters, we would say contract year, have those two tag games, teams should be better. um I can see the narrative as to why he would be going up.
00:24:11
Jon Harmey
Bergman, I feel like he is going to go up. But maybe I'm not as optimistic as some coaches because um i guess I feel he'll be that defensive midfielder and some others have got him really popping. I'm not sure whether he's going to be 100.
00:24:29
Jon Harmey
I don't feel as though he probably is. So, yeah, I mean, you've just got to tell yourself the narrative and see what they put together on the field in the preseason. Yeah, it's a...
00:24:42
Holmesy
Yep, nah, fair enough. I suppose if if we needed Bergman to go over 100 also to be a really good pick, then maybe that's where it gets a bit hairy. But I suppose the bar for Bergman is a little bit lower, so they can probably all coexist in your side. Jordy, who's your M8?
00:24:58
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, so this spot was the hardest one to fill. I think those top seven I'm pretty happy with. But the M8 spot, I've sort of put five players in this next category. So between 103 and 105.
00:25:11
JORDAN D_SENA
And I've come out with the M8 being Will Ashcroft. Now, there's a few other players in here that I might just discuss as well. Josh Dunkley, Finn Callaghan, Jax Tihul, Zach Merritt. know there's a few names there.
00:25:23
JORDAN D_SENA
But I think they're all about this range. But I'm going to put Ashcroft there at MA. I just think he's ready for a massive year. And if you said to me the end of the year, oh, will Ashcroft average over 100? I don't think anyone would be surprised. He's priced at 95. did go 99.6 post-buy.
00:25:38
JORDAN D_SENA
he did go ninety nine point six post buy Yes, Neil may have been a bit injury at the end there, but he's only averaging 52% CBAs. And I think that's quite low for a guy.
00:25:50
JORDAN D_SENA
I know that midfield's busy, but I just think that they might just push his CBAs up a little bit this year. Maybe he gets 60% CBAs and that's when he can push this CBAs.
00:26:00
JORDAN D_SENA
You know, this 103, I think he's a really good pick. I know the finals are only four games, but he did go at 115 in the finals. Obviously, won another Norm Smith. just think he's ready. He's at the age bracket he's ready to just take over that midfield and be the number one.
00:26:17
JORDAN D_SENA
And perhaps Neil. Neil is turning 33 in um May. So maybe his time with the time on bench, with the five, maybe he just comes down a little bit.
00:26:27
JORDAN D_SENA
So I've got him there at M8, but you've got his mate there, Josh Dunkley as well, um which probably hover around the same sort of areas.
00:26:36
Holmesy
Also got All-Australian, Hugh McCluggage is going nowhere in that midfield as well, right? I suppose for Ashcroft to to really be a good pick, Louis, you probably need Neil to really drop off a cliff here, miss a lot of games and and maybe have some lower game time.
00:26:41
JORDAN D_SENA
Yep.
00:26:51
Holmesy
Otherwise, realistically, you can probably see Dunkley, Ashcroft and McCluggage all hover around that 100 or to 104 mark without any of them going really big, right?
00:27:04
Lew
Yeah, I think he'd need some significant regression from one of those guys. I think ah you've probably hit it on the head there Holmesy that then they're probably going to hover all around that 102 to 105 mark. And I know we said that can be really difficult to do, but Brisbane is probably the one example of a team that can get it done just with how many fantasy points they can get. Score week in, week out. And I ah do agree, though, if if we if Will Ashcroft can get into that prime role in the midfield, he's got the trajectory to really push those 110 numbers, but it's going to definitely affect some of the other guys in there.
00:27:44
Holmesy
Geordie, just before we we move on, what's the knock on Finn Callaghan not being there over Ashcroft?
00:27:53
JORDAN D_SENA
I think it's just the tag for me. Like he's, I think was it was a post buy, he went 105. So, um you know, obviously elite scoring there, but it was the sort of the first year we saw him break out. And I just think maybe he gets a bit more attention. They have got Clayton Oliver come in the door there.
00:28:09
JORDAN D_SENA
Does that help him? Does that take a couple of extra points? I still got him in this range about 103. So he is right there. And I think he's going to average over a hundred, but yeah,
00:28:21
JORDAN D_SENA
yeah I just think maybe he might get a bit more attention this year.
00:28:24
Holmesy
Yeah, 105.6 post-buy and actually 105 in his last 14 games. So it's a fair sample size. It did seem once he really got a hold of that midfield and and was up to it, he was off and going. i I really like Callaghan this year.
00:28:38
Holmesy
I don't know whether I'm ballsy enough to go into it with such low ownership and whatnot, but um if he comes out as a top eight mid towards the end of the year, I i wouldn't be surprised at
Rookie Strategies and Evaluations
00:28:49
Holmesy
all. i I think Clary Oliver being there only sort of helps him as an extra body around the contest, an extra midfielder that the teams need to worry about. And once Callaghan gets it on the outside, he's off and going. And he he tackled more towards the end of the year as well, which was quite impressive. he was He was getting lots of 30 disposal games early in the year for an 80 or a 90 because it was just handball receives and on the outside. But when he tackles, yeah, man, he's he's going to be a fantasy gun in the future.
00:29:16
Holmesy
All right, Jordy, just a quick who missed out and maybe just give a couple that you might think regress that we don't really need to talk about too much.
00:29:23
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, so I've still got, like, I've got Jack Steele here as well and Sam Walsh, who I think are going to go about 100, 103. So i think they're they're good picks as well, but they probably don't push the top eight mid. Maybe they're close enough. i think those are good starting picks where you can almost hold them if they are going about that to really right at the end of the season.
00:29:42
JORDAN D_SENA
um The only one I've really got regressing is Max Holmes. So he went at 100 this year. I've sort of can't put him back a little bit. They've added Warpool, um you know Tanner Broon, a few other guys are coming in. So I've just got him regressing a little bit.
00:29:58
JORDAN D_SENA
um I've got a few other boys there, Matt Rau as well. I just think he obviously he won the Brownlow. He had a career year and usually when you see you have a career year with the Brownlow, it's quite quite hard to back it up.
00:30:10
JORDAN D_SENA
So I've just got him regressing a little bit and going under 100 this year. And in that group, sort of the similar players like Caleb Sorong and Tom Green, which I find hard to really improve and get over 100 plus with just the team and game style.
00:30:27
JORDAN D_SENA
um Harmi's man, Brayshaw, hovering around 100 as well. And same as Noah Anderson. Noah Anderson's interesting because he actually didn't crack 100 last year.
00:30:36
Jon Harmey
These.
00:30:39
JORDAN D_SENA
And now they've added Petrarca. He could even regress another point or two. i don't know. he's He's a hard one to read as well.
00:30:48
Holmesy
Yeah, the the Gold Coast midfield's a tricky one. I'm not sure i'd be starting any of them, especially with that early buy, although they do have the good draw to start. All right, before we get into a bit of strategy and structure, just a reminder, we've spoken about a bit already, but the Marrera's Magic Season Guide is now live and available to purchase. So in that season guide at marrerasmagic.com.au, you get profile on every single player in the comp with all of the relevant statistics needed to pick your starting squad.
00:31:20
Holmesy
There's, as Harmi mentioned, best 22 from Selby and myself. There's market share pages, DVP, strength of schedule. There's the weekly pod with Selby and Zave plus the Holmes Files episodes in there. So there's one with DT Lemon that you must listen to if you want to be a serious fantasy coach.
00:31:38
Holmesy
ah There'll be one from Mitch Casey and the Ball Boys that's coming up this week. and plenty of other esteemed coaches throughout the preseason. So if you want to get your hands on the season guide who are sponsoring us this year at the PodPod, the link will be in the show description below, but just head over to marerasmagic.com.au to get that sorted.
00:31:58
Holmesy
Louis, let's get stuck into some strategy and structured chat. So at the moment, we've got some rookies that are starting to appear that are quite highly owned. So Jagger Smith, 56%. Zeke Uland, who is also defender eligible, 52%.
00:32:13
Holmesy
Sharp, 45%. Dersmer, 42%. Smiley, 31%. So we can see a lot of these rookies are highly owned. My question for you is, when you're starting to put your squad together, how many rookies are you looking at starting and what's that doing to your overall structure in the midfield?
00:32:30
Lew
Yeah, well, what we know about these rookies is they're coming with a little bit of hype at the moment. um It's always hard to predict, and I think the practice games are going to shed a whole lot more light on what these roles are going to look like and what their scoring capacity can be. But...
00:32:47
Lew
At the moment, I'll tell you what, I'm very thankful that these guys all have lots and lots of DPP because it means that we can spread these guys a little bit, um I suppose, thicker through our sides.
00:33:01
Lew
um And in terms of a structure, I'm sort of even potentially looking at batting as deep as four midfielders and targeting the the value options in that mid-price range down in defence.
00:33:15
Lew
At the moment, are you sort of thinking along the same lines, Holmesy? Do you have confidence in these rookies from what we've sort of heard so far?
00:33:27
Holmesy
No, I don't, just at the moment, because we have we we have the same thing every year. we were We were told for three months straight that this was going to be one of the weakest draft crops in memory, and then pre-season hits, and then all of a sudden we've got all these rookies playing. So um I'm tempering expectations at the moment, but am noticing that A lot of the popular rookies that we're looking at in the midfield line, so think like a Jagger Smith, Annabelle, these types have that round two buy. And then in defense, you've got Zeke Uland, Jai Sarong.
00:33:58
Holmesy
There was a Carmichael, but he's not there anymore. That will mourn that round three buy. So it is really important to... we're We're going to get a look at these rookies in opening round, which is which is important to see what they're scoring to lock that in. But at the same time, we've then still got to be careful. We can't load up with too many of these round two by players if all of a sudden you've got, for example, a Walsh, maybe you look at a Tanner Bruin, maybe you look at an Ashcroft, and then all of a sudden you combine Anibal, Smith and all these types, and you might find yourself a bit short in that by round. So that's what I'm kind of...
00:34:28
Holmesy
Just looking it at the moment, it does seem like there's a few Richmond rookies coming through and and they were good for us last year, if you think Luke Treanor and some of the other guys. So, yeah, I think we will get some. I suppose the question is whether you're starting two on field or whether you start three on field.
00:34:45
Lew
I think the big thing for me is that a lot of these rookies have a defined place in these teams. So, you know, we saw some of the better rookies last year, like ah like a Sam Davidson, for example, had already locked down a spot on that wig and he was able to build some consistency in the role and really get his price ticking
Fremantle and Carlton Midfield Analysis
00:35:02
Lew
over. and That's sort of what I'm seeing from, for example, a Dyson Sharp who who should be going straight into that Essendon midfield. I think Smiley, with a provided his fit with a year of development, will be going straight into that young midfield. Ulan's already been stated for a wing.
00:35:18
Lew
Jagger, you know, obviously is going to be one of the most picked players this year. He's going to be straight in that midfield. So while it might be a weaker draft crop, I think what we've got available to us in terms of opportunity is, you is far greater than what we've had maybe in certainly last year, but in previous seasons as well. And that's where I've got a little bit of excitement. And as I stated, I think that DPP is really going to allow us to sort of plug and play and and be able to to move our sides around so that we're maximising the points from those rookies on field at all times, which I think
00:35:55
Lew
In previous years, we've probably been restricted from a rookie sense, maybe just to that forward line or just as a mid only, whereas you can pretty much flick them from from your midfield to defence to forward this year is what I'm finding so far.
00:36:01
Jon Harmey
you
00:36:10
Holmesy
Yeah, 100%. There are a lot of rookies with that defender mid DPP, which is which is good. Definitely adds flexibility during the buy rounds to to maximize those scores.
00:36:21
Holmesy
Harmi, I suppose let's just try and compare this to last year. Last year, we had a lot more mid-priced options. Personally, I think in terms of ah Nathan O'Driscoll, Mitch Nevitt that were both priced in that sort of 40s range. We then had, you know, Chera, Will Day, Callaghan all around that 70s mark. And then you had a Clary Oliver around that sort of 85, 90 mark.
00:36:43
Holmesy
I'm not seeing a lot of those guys this year outside of maybe a Darcy Parish. Do you think in your sort of squads that you've been building so far, are you more of a guns and rookie style approach in the midfield this year with, you know, outside maybe a Darcy Parish?
00:36:59
Jon Harmey
yeah Look, that was probably a question mark that I had coming in for you guys and probably still do. um guess i'll sort of leaned a bit the same way as you, Holmesy, when you said two or three mid-rooks. I think that's probably where it's at. I think Lou said four. Man, that'd be a lot.
00:37:18
Jon Harmey
Hold on. I'll pull out my names.
00:37:24
Jon Harmey
I sort of feel like there's not really 40...
00:37:28
Jon Harmey
player coming in around that 40 mark, but there's some that I have had a look at that are affected by being subbed out or subbed in a number of times last year. I'll just throw a few names at you so you sort of see what I mean.
00:37:42
Jon Harmey
Xavier Lindsay, Neil Erasmus, Angus Sheldrick, these guys are priced like, so Erasmus is 59 and what's the other, Xavier Lindsay, 52 sort of thing. So i think that there are people in that mid-bracket that you could be looking to bring in um if if that's the way, you know, it suits your structure and that sort of thing. So, yeah, I think you're probably right. It's not the 40 averaging player that you're looking at. There's slightly more than that that I've sort of been considering.
00:38:16
Lew
Yeah, and look, that four-rookie midfield, that's just due to probably the lack of 70 to 80 averaging players that I'm interested in in that midfield, whereas I think defence has got plenty of them. So realistically, let's say you've got like a Connor Rosey down back, um you swap him out and all of a sudden, you know, you've got the three-rookie midfielders and then you're you're plugging one rookie into defence. So that's where that flexibility is really helping there, I think.
00:38:46
Holmesy
Jordy, before we move on, in terms of some of the teams you've started building with your midfield, what sort of strategy, structure, plan are you looking to to go for so far?
00:38:56
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, i've sort of played it around a little bit. I think I've gone with three or maybe even two. um There's a guy, i mean, Harmi, just this is some names, but like a Will Brody or Tanner Broon or something like that. Maybe you can fill with them at M5, M6 maybe, and then you can run ah other rookies.
00:39:16
JORDAN D_SENA
I usually try and tend to build my team the opposite way. So once we do get these rookies, definitely put them in first. And then if there are four rookies in the midfield, as Louis said, I'm not opposed to getting them because we need to get the cash gen. So I'm happy to do that and then fill my team in other spots like the defence and forwards. So at the moment, it's just, it's probably the same, two or three, yeah,
00:39:39
JORDAN D_SENA
I'm open to anything at the moment. I think for me, the ruck line is going to determine how my rest of the team sort of fits out.
00:39:48
Holmesy
Yeah, and that' that was the point that I was going to make and you were actually talking about it a bit pre-pod, Jordi, is that if we decide to not pay up in the rucks because we're worried about the ruck rules and we want to try and find value, we're a bit the same in the forward line where maybe we pay for a she's a bit outside of that, we're targeting a few more of these mid-price guys as well.
00:40:08
Holmesy
you've got to spend your cash somewhere. And it does seem like yeahre we're finding a lot more value, at least in defense. We're trying to hunt the value in the forward line. And then, you know, I think there's probably scope to spend up a little bit in the midfield this year just because of cash that we've got left over. So we definitely have the DPP, Louis, which is going to allow us to pick more of these guys. And I think, yeah, at the end, it will it'll come out.
00:40:32
Holmesy
Let's go through a few more players before we go into the listener request to finish the podcast. And I'm going to throw some Frio boys at you first, Jordy, and I want you to talk through these. So Andrew Brayshaw priced at 101, Caleb Sorong at 92, and then you can probably throw Hayden Young at 88 in there as well.
00:40:49
Holmesy
Definitely more value in Supercoach, but I'm not willing to rule Hayden out just yet. But talk to us a little bit about the Frio midfield, how you think it's going to line up and is there any value in these players?
00:41:02
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, I think, as you said, we saw last year the free-o game style change a little bit and obviously made finals. So it it was working for them. It was the first year that we saw that change. So maybe there's a bit of improvement like as a team points. But the big thing that I've been hearing this preseason is Luke Jackson primarily training as a midfielder.
00:41:24
JORDAN D_SENA
So if you're going to have Hayden Young come in there and Luke Jackson, how does that affect Brayshaw and Sarong? um there's a little stat here that you've put on here. So when Jackson did move into the mids and not rucking, Rochelle went at just 98.
00:41:40
JORDAN D_SENA
So don't know. I'm not really targeting a Frio guy at the moment. I sort of really want to see it. I think there's quite a lot there in that midfield. And...
00:41:52
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, I'm unsure. And obviously, Sarong, he's priced at 92. just can't see him getting back over 100 this year with the game style. And he's obviously also the number one tag target.
00:42:04
JORDAN D_SENA
But that's just that's just me.
00:42:06
Holmesy
Yeah, I think if I had to take a guess at what all four of them are going average, I think they're going to spread it out more and they're all four of them, in terms of Young, Jackson, Sarong and Brayshaw, I think are all going average between that 92 to 98 range. I think if Freya were going launch and be competitive, which touch wood it's going to be this year, it's not going to be off the back of one or two midfielders going ham. It's going to be that sort of team approach.
00:42:31
Holmesy
Whilst they do also throw an Erasmus in there at time or Johnson or Bolton, whoever it is, for a bit of flair. So I think you're gonna see a bit more team football, which which makes it a bit tricky to start any of those guys in your starting squad.
00:42:45
Holmesy
Harmi, I'll throw to you. Jordy touched on this guy briefly early by round two. So there's been a bit of negative talk about potentially starting him. But Sam Walsh priced at, where are we? Sam Walsh priced at 93%.
00:43:01
Holmesy
106, 95 and 103 in his last three seasons and he has gone 108 in the past. Sam Walsh, I'm really interested as long as he gets through the full preseason without hearing that he's got any of these back hammy issues that he's had in the past.
00:43:15
Holmesy
Talk me through Sam Walsh.
00:43:18
Jon Harmey
Well, um as I said earlier on in the podcast, you've got to have a reason to put somebody into your team. Sam Walsh, the CBA mix for Carlton last year, he attended 56% of CBAs. So that's pretty low, really, compared to some of the other best mids in the competition.
00:43:41
Jon Harmey
He didn't start the season. He started in round five because he had a hamstring injury, I think it was, wasn't it? i think it was back the year before, hamstring last preseason. First game, 145 points.
00:43:56
Jon Harmey
um Then he proceeded to play out the rest of the season. don't know. Looking at that CBA percentage, I feel he's potentially managed at times. I think he's got some upside. This is a guy that's averaged over 100 before.
00:44:11
Jon Harmey
You've got to wear an early buy if you're going to select him. But I've really come around to the idea that he could be a good starting pick.
00:44:20
Holmesy
Yep. So in the last three years, 29 games, Sam Walsh has had above 60% CBAs and he's averaged 106. So if he has the the CBA role above 60%, I'm very confident that he's a 105 plus player.
00:44:35
Holmesy
I suppose, Louis, the argument is, can you go against, like if you believe he's a good starting pick because he's valued, but you're also worried about the opening round buy, what are the pros and cons for starting a person like Sam Walsh?
00:44:49
Lew
Oh, well, going to want to see something significant in round zero, and that's probably going to be the real pub test there. If you're still keen after that, maybe he shows that he's got the role. I ah think we've seen that you're allowed to select these guys that have the early buy, provided that you think that they're going to improve enough, that it's going to offset that, obviously, that one less game.
00:45:10
Lew
I think Sam Walsh is going to be somebody who really benefits from the new rules. I think when I think of players that wrap around and grab those handball receipts and demand the football, I think Sam Walsh she is right up there at the top of my list and he's going to play a big role in whether or not Carlton are going to be competitive this year.
00:45:29
Lew
So I'm expecting him to to return back to what he sort of came onto the scene with, which was 109 plus. I'm not sure it'll be quite that high, but he's he's definitely got the chops to do it.
00:45:39
Jon Harmey
Thank
00:45:43
Lew
and Really, I honestly believe that injury has probably been the main thing that's held him back in load management. So if he can have a full preseason, which I think to this point he has, I'm pretty bullish on him. And I think the only concern would be that just seeing a clip from Carlton posted today about some of their skills, that he might not actually be able to take any marks because they're struggling to hit some targets out there at the moment.
00:46:12
Jon Harmey
Yeah, alright, well I've got a question for you. I was just reading off those CBAs before for Carlton, right? So, well, Geordie, let's have a look at this. I'll go through it from last season. So, Cripps, 80%.
00:46:23
Jon Harmey
Very high. Hewitt, 77%. Chero, 66%. Walsh, 56%. Do you reckon that balance is right? Like, does he really sit behind Adam Chero in the CBA mix?
00:46:36
JORDAN D_SENA
He probably should be behind Cripps, really, wouldn't you think? like I know Hewitt does that defensive job, but yeah I think it is was the whole injury thing last year coming back. They just maybe managed his time a bit, but I think you're right. I think if he's fit, why can't he push up a bit higher higher CBAs and be the second or third guy in the midfield?
00:46:59
Holmesy
Yeah, he's the class in there. He is the class. I mean... Yeah, I think it was the injuries. If he's fit and healthy, he's someone I'd be happy to launch into.
Essendon and Hawthorn Midfield Changes
00:47:09
Holmesy
Lou, the last thing I want to hit before we move on to the next player, I've heard the argument that you because he has the round two buy, you wait on him and then you trade into him after his after his round two buy.
00:47:21
Holmesy
I suppose the issue is they have Richmond in round one. So if you believe he's a good pick and they have Richmond, you're probably looking at a ceiling score there. what kind of scoring opening round would need to turn you off to to wait on a Sam Walsh or would opening round not even really bother you if the role was still there anyway?
00:47:38
Lew
I think if the role was there and he was scoring maybe just a little bit north of what he's come in priced at, that I wouldn't be too afraid to go there, especially with Richmond round one. I certainly wouldn't want to miss the ceiling score, as Harmi mentioned, a 145 last year. ah makes me salivate. So, yeah, I think you can you can make that work. And just a thought off the cuff as well is I wonder if we see Patrick Cripps play a little bit more forward, perhaps out of the gold square goal square just with no Charlie Curnow this year as well because we've seen he's been effective up forward with how large he is as well.
00:48:16
Holmesy
He'll be the backup ruck, Wonnie Lu, when Big Reedy can't get to the contest.
00:48:22
Lew
but What about Piddo?
00:48:25
Holmesy
They'll play three rucks then. A bit like Geelong.
00:48:27
Lew
Well, Cripps better look after his throat if he's going to be rucking for Carlton.
00:48:28
Holmesy
bit like Geelong.
00:48:33
Holmesy
Yeah, far out. Harmy, the one player before we get onto the listener request, sorry, one more I forgot. We forgot, we touched on him briefly, but you deserves more discussion is Jack Steele. Now Jack Steele priced at 96, I believe.
00:48:47
Holmesy
um He averaged 102.3 last year alone when he had games above 60% center bounces. Remember, there was the game that he got subbed and there was also that weird game where he played basically exclusively forward towards the end of the year.
00:49:01
Holmesy
Coming over to Melbourne, all reports are that he's getting the midfield role to plug the hole that Clary and Track have left in that side. Is he one that we don't overthink because he's gone that 106, 108 numbers in the past or or does there need to be a bigger discussion here?
00:49:18
Jon Harmey
I guess I feel like he won't go down in average. um The type of game that he plays, the way that he got stuffed around last year, in my opinion, in his role at the Saints, um seemed like they weren't really giving him the opportunity he probably deserved.
00:49:40
Jon Harmey
I feel like, oh and and you know Oliver and Petrarcha going out of the Melbourne side, Bearing in mind, Melbourne are going to be pretty ordinary. i expect him to be the M1 in their midfield and have ah have a pretty decent season. I think there might be a few points upside.
00:49:57
Jon Harmey
It's not going to be off the show. He's not going to be like 110, but I think he's still going to be quite a good pick for us with no early bye.
00:50:04
Holmesy
Yeah, no, I agree with that. And Chip on his shoulder, I think he's a proud man, captain of the club being asked to leave. I think point to prove he's 30 now, so he is getting on in age. But yeah, ah great point, Harmi. I can't see him being worse than what he did last year with potential 105 plus upside with what he's done in the past in the role. i think I think he's all good.
00:50:25
Holmesy
All right, let's get into these listener requests from X. Thanks everyone for getting these in. We'll go through these relatively quickly, quick fire around and and the panel will just give a quick like or dislike.
00:50:37
Holmesy
Louis, first one for you. We did just touch on him very briefly there. Adam Chera priced at 95.1, does have the early buy. Not quite a career year. He's averaged 96 before, but that was, I think off a lower game sample size.
00:50:52
Holmesy
Any scope for Chera improving?
00:50:54
Lew
No, I think he's got a little bit of a limited ceiling with ah who else is in there now. So for me, M3, M4 sort of areas in his own side, I think I would rather um let him prove himself for a bit before before starting him.
00:51:10
Holmesy
Yeah, points per minute gun.
00:51:11
Lew
and As well as the durability, it's a hard in your mouth type stuff every time you watch Adam Chera.
00:51:16
Holmesy
Yeah, that's i was going to say. He's points per minute gun when he actually is on the field and scoring, but that low time on ground to protect his body, I think that's going to be him for the rest of his career. So probably not a starting pick there.
00:51:29
Holmesy
Jordy, LDU. Now, this one's actually interesting. Priced at 87.7, which adjusted to take out the injury. Last three years, 96 average, 97.4, and then 93.4, which was 97 adjusted. So value on the previous three years. And we've seen big runs from him before. So 106 post-buy in 2022, and then in pod with an LDU.
00:51:58
Holmesy
any interest with a bit of a pod we are the pod pod with an ldo
00:52:04
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, geez, LDU has been talked up a lot and he just has never been able to put it together. We see it slightly. ah don't think I could go there. I think I'd have to see something early where I could trade into it. He'd be quite cheap.
00:52:17
JORDAN D_SENA
I just think Sheezle is the guy now to take them in the midfield, M1, always F1, but M1 in their midfield. you know If LDU and North are getting better, maybe you trade into it, but it's just not something that I can start with confidence on LDU. and you know You've got power. You've got Wardle's looking at taking and another leap this year, hopefully, if he can get himself fit. so ah do like him. He's ah he is a good player. He's a gunning super coach because of the way he wins the ball.
00:52:47
JORDAN D_SENA
But for fantasy, um yeah, i just have to I just have to see it.
00:52:52
Holmesy
Jordy, is there any chance that Shea goes into the midfield full-time, he becomes the main sort of tag attention guy, and then LDU can play a bit more of an M2 role around him, which could actually lead to a bit more free ball on the outside, which hasn't been given before?
00:53:09
JORDAN D_SENA
Maybe. Yeah, maybe. I mean, is he that sort of guy that can get there a lot of outside ball? i I sort of see him as more of an inside contested guy. Maybe he can pick up a few points, but he's he's not as you know as clean as she's are on the outside. um Yeah, I just i think i just have to I'd have to trade into it, I think.
00:53:30
Holmesy
We'd be talking about his 160 a fair bit more if Shea's hadn't have gone 180 in that final game. oh He's just one to watch. I think he's interesting.
00:53:38
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah.
00:53:38
Holmesy
We are looking for value in the midfield. You couldn't start it with any confidence. But yeah, if you like LDU and you want to back your gut, as Selby always says, then i wouldn't I wouldn't talk you out of it. ah Harmi next one here Jai Cully priced at 49 mid only obviously average 77 in the VFL and hasn't shown it at AFL level yet but if he has a mid role in Melbourne we know there's a hole there is there any chance that you'd go at a Jai Cully what role do you think he's going to play if he does play indeed for Melbourne
00:54:11
Jon Harmey
Well, bearing in mind that this is a guy that was delisted from the worst team in the competition, I think that he's still going to struggle a little bit to make the 23. And i think he's not a bad player. But, I mean, ah let's have a look last season. He played the last four games.
00:54:31
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:54:33
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I would find it difficult to pick him and put it that way, Holmes. I'm just not convinced that he's got a good role and he's in one of the worst teams still. So I don't know whether I could go there.
00:54:49
Holmesy
Yep. I think you just watch it, though, in the preseason to see what kind of a role he does have in that side. If someone had put a Nathan O'Driscoll into this segment this time last year, we would have been saying the same thing before we saw a bit of a midfield role and a breakout on the wing.
00:55:02
Holmesy
So, ah Louis, except for you, Louis. Sorry, mate. You you always get those ones.
00:55:05
Lew
Thank you.
00:55:07
Holmesy
Sorry. Yeah, I would have poo-pooed it anyway. So yeah, watch
Port Adelaide and Langford's Potential
00:55:11
Holmesy
the role in the preseason and and then go from there. Louis, on to... can't remember whether he or the next one was your boy, but Cam McKenzie. Let's throw McKenzie and Ward both into this conversation. So James Warple departs Hawthorne to Geelong and now Will Day's out in the short term, which leaves a big hole in the midfield. Both of those guys were getting 60% plus CBAs when they were playing.
00:55:37
Holmesy
McKenzie priced at 62.5 and then Ward priced at 75.9. Is there any world where one of these guys takes a step up and becomes value for us from a starting squad perspective? You would need 90 plus, maybe a little bit lower for McKenzie who is priced cheaper.
00:55:56
Holmesy
When you've got Newcomb in that side only able to average 86 and Meek really the only guy going above 90.
00:55:59
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:56:02
Holmesy
Personally, I think it's a bit tricky, but what do you think?
00:56:05
Lew
Yeah, I do love both these guys and I think um they will be super fantasy relevant in the years to come. um And the Hawks are screaming out for a little bit more midfield help there, especially with Day going down a couple of weeks ago. For me, I think Cam McKenzie at 62 is just a little bit too awkward. I think that that role's not quite guaranteed yet. I think there's still a little bit of...
00:56:30
Lew
development to be had there, even though I really like sort of the trajectory that he's on. He's ah he's a bit of an accumulator. He's got super clean disposal. So he'll be one to to certainly watch for the future. Josh Ward, there's a little bit more interest. I think if...
00:56:47
Lew
McKenzie struggling for opportunity. I think Ward's just maybe struggling for a little bit of consistency in there. And we did see that he actually attended more centre bounces, certainly than what I thought last year. And I think with some natural improvement, which is always something that's hard to bank on, he is one that wouldn't surprise me if he can make that jump. up from 76 to maybe clipping at the heels of a 90 but ah for me in that team Hawthorne midfielders especially they seem to have a little bit of a limited ceiling which um is probably not what you want for a player that's priced at 76 I think you want to see a little bit more upside there to to be confident in starting
00:57:33
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah. Echo those thoughts. It's it's tricky in Classic. I think they both get bumped up in draft, but with the we upside that we need them to have in Classic, I think it's going to be quite tricky for them to get to that point. But definitely keep on the radar in the preseason.
00:57:50
Holmesy
Luke?
00:57:50
Lew
and And I was just going to mention a little bit of hype's coming out for Connor McDonald as well, who is forward eligible. I'm sure we'll be deep diving into him a little bit more next week. But for me, I think that they might be spreading the load a little bit too much.
00:58:09
Holmesy
Perfect, Harmi. I'm going to have to jump back to you for this one to avoid bias, as it's been dubbed Will Brodie season. Priced at 44. You said there was no midfielders in that 40 range, but Will Brodie priced at 44.
00:58:22
Holmesy
You've got to go back to 2022 when he averaged 94 for Freo in a full season. JHF yet to train, still just jogging laps and looking proppy, as well as Ollie Wines being out for the first two rounds with suspension.
00:58:36
Holmesy
Connor Rosey in defence, the midfield doesn't seem too stacked. Is there any world where you'd entertain starting Will Brodie?
00:58:43
Jon Harmey
Oh, course there is. There's a world where he's named on ball in round one and the clubs come out saying that he's going to be the in the midfield group. I just don't believe it at this point of the season. And I mean, I like your stat, but it's not 2022 anymore, mate. And that was some time ago.
00:59:04
Holmesy
What if I told you that he had six clearances on Mitch Georgiades at training last week? Would that get you interested?
00:59:10
Jon Harmey
I'd want to see some footage, Holmesy.
00:59:12
Lew
Oh, that's the dumbest thing I've heard this preseason.
00:59:13
Holmesy
Just...
00:59:14
Lew
Come on.
00:59:16
Holmesy
Just check out Geordie DeSantis-Twinner for a bit of bit a vision there. Harmy, Geordie, this guy's actually getting a bit of hype.
00:59:22
JORDAN D_SENA
Bye.
00:59:23
Holmesy
So i want a bit of discussion on this because I've got my opinion, but I want to hear it from you, Geordie. So Harvey Langford, priced in the low 60s, but did average 65 when you take out his rookie vested score from last year.
00:59:41
Holmesy
everyone's sort of talked that he's the next guy to go into that midfield. The second year breakout is just so hard to pick. It's not just saying that the role is available, they'll do it.
00:59:51
Holmesy
Obviously, the time on ground has to jump, their body has to be able to withhold a full-time midfield rotation. And at 62, we really need him going 85 plus to just be an okay pick, touching on 90 to be a good pick.
01:00:04
Holmesy
What do you think about Harvey Langford? is getting some love this preseason.
01:00:09
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, I really like Lankford. Whether I start him or not is unsure. I just think that, um yeah, I mean, looking at those second-year breakouts, so I've looked at this with comparing it. So obviously, like, you know, you've got the Bonts, the Fives, Clayton Oliver, Taranto. They've all jumped from about 60 to 90 in their second year.
Reid, Heaney, and Anderson's Prospects
01:00:28
JORDAN D_SENA
Now, you're listing all those players. They're absolute stars. And Cripps did it as well. So it's possible...
01:00:34
JORDAN D_SENA
And I think at the time when they did that, they had the opportunity. So, you know, Track and Oliver are gone. He's got the opportunities if he gets the role. i I think, you know, just listening to Selby over the years, um he was one to trade into those Tarantos, trade into those Olivers.
01:00:50
JORDAN D_SENA
So I'm always looking at it, okay, if I see it in round one, do you just jump straight on? If he's got the role, do you just go straight into it? That way you're not starting him. We might get a bit more stuff in the preseason.
01:01:01
JORDAN D_SENA
And as you said, it is very hard to do a second year. There's lots of times that we think, oh, yep, second year guy is going to take a breakout and it's not to his third or fourth year that we see it. So i think I'm going with...
01:01:14
JORDAN D_SENA
Trading into it, you know, maybe you're starting the Will Brody, the Tanner Broon, that sort of pick. You see it round one, you can potentially flick to him. um But I am keeping a big watch on him.
01:01:25
Lew
I think my concern with Harvey Langford, I think he's going to be an absolute star. But um in terms of having the role as a midfielder, as we haven't actually seen a lot of exposed form as a midfielder, he he was in there very briefly early on in his first couple of games. But since then, he's sort of worked on his craft in other areas of the ground. So to jump straight in in a midfield role, while I think the opportunity there is there, and I think...
01:01:52
Lew
I certainly wouldn't rule out him you know breaking out into that 85 range. I'm just a little bit nervous based on what we've seen in that role so far.
01:02:02
Jon Harmey
Yeah, and um I sort of ah heard a grab and Langford was being interviewed. I think he's a great player and he will be very good, but he's sort of talking about training and where he's sitting match sim that sort of thing. And he sort of sort of spoke about having runs through the midfield and it's good to get some experience in the midfield. It wasn't like, yeah, that's where I am and that's where i'm going to play and that's what the coaches have told me. So I wasn't as confident after hearing that.
01:02:30
Holmesy
Louis, back to you. The floor is yours. We don't have too much longer though. Harley Reid. Go.
01:02:35
Lew
Yes. Yeah, i love Harley Reid. I think he's going to be an absolute superstar. He's going to be in that midfield for the Eagles. He is a bit more of an impact player, but I think if he can discover some consistency, he can smash that 67 priced out.
01:02:51
Lew
ah priced that out the park to, I don't know, 87 to 90. The only concern would be just how the Eagle system is. I think that, you know, accumulatively as far as fantasy points go, they don't score a lot week in, week out. So perhaps the ceiling is limited because of that. But all reports out of West Coast is that he's looking a million bucks and perhaps a little bit of a help from Tom McCarthy in there can unlock a little bit more, um you know, potential out of him.
01:03:21
Holmesy
Yeah, the one thing I'd be worried about is just that tag. Now, yes, Eagles are bad and they they teams typically don't tag them, but we did say last year in the games where Reid gets off the chain, he really gets off the chain. He's damaging from that centre bounce, centre clearance, and and teams go after him. So that probably limits his ceiling, but no doubt he should go north well north of his 65 price, that tag, whatever it is around that mark, and I can see why you're interested there, Louis.
01:03:48
Holmesy
Harmi, Isaac Heaney has an early buy priced at 96.9. I suppose the reason that coaches are interested is pre-buy 2024 when we all had him, he went 112.6.
01:04:00
Holmesy
And then post-buy last year, he went at 105 and that was including that monster 166. one sixty six So if he can put a full season together, showing that he's got top eight scoring levels, but is there any interest in starting Isaac Heaney?
01:04:13
Jon Harmey
Well, not unless he goes about 1.30 in that round zero game.
01:04:19
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah. i He's interesting. He's not one I'm looking to start. But yeah, as always, an opening round watch and and and just see you there. Jordy, your boy, Noah Anderson, has an early buy. Average 99.5 after basically the year prior.
01:04:36
Holmesy
The stat that I didn't like for him was that in six tag games this year, or last year, sorry, he averaged 81.7. So he does get shut down a fair bit. And we have seen even in some of those games, they released the tag and that's when his scoring goes big.
01:04:50
Holmesy
With Raoul and now Petrarca and the emergence of some of the other boys, any interest in a Noel Anderson or does the early buy put you off?
01:04:59
JORDAN D_SENA
Yeah, I know they've got an awesome run, Gold Coast. So there's talk of maybe, you know, you're you're starting someone like an Anderson or Rout. But I just can't. ah I was obviously a big Anderson owner last year and I watched him so closely. And um the way that Gold Coast plays, like they use the wings a lot and not in the middle. So you see he gets like a one-mark game or two marks and they hardly use him for that outside ball. And he's really he's a gun player and contested.
01:05:24
JORDAN D_SENA
He's winning it inside, but he's not getting the outside They've added track to that. i've look I've heard on Twitter that he might be... He's been with the defenders in Anderson.
01:05:34
JORDAN D_SENA
So whether that's just you know giving Humphrey and these other guys midfield time in the preseason, I think the only way to be interested is if he has ah a role change, if it's sort of like a, I don't know, a defence midfield split or something to get track in there or something completely different. But he's the captain of the side, so...
01:05:52
JORDAN D_SENA
is you He's a number one mid with him in Rouse. i I don't see that changing too much. think if he's in there, I just haven't really got much interest. As I said, with those top eight mids, I had him about you know hovering around 100, maybe less if track's going to be getting some mid time.
01:06:09
JORDAN D_SENA
So that's just sort of where I'm at with it.
01:06:12
Holmesy
Yeah, very hard when his disposals are up there with the elite in the comp, but when he doesn't mark and he doesn't tackle as as much as those top eight mids, it ah yeah means that he has a bit of a flaw in his day, which limits his scoring.
Preseason Planning Insights
01:06:26
Holmesy
Boys, that's going to wrap us up there for the midfielders. Huge, huge episode. ah Harmi, just ah before we wrap up, just what are you sort of doing with your pre-season planning at the moment and where are you putting your time just so listeners because it can understand what sort of process they should be going through at this time of the year?
01:06:46
Jon Harmey
I just think that until those match sims commence and we actually see some real football being played, that sort of thing, I just feel like we're really just going through the stats from previous years to see who we think could be underpriced at this point of the season and keeping an eye on the news reports and that sort of thing around injuries. But until we see some some real footy, yeah, it's a bit hard at this time of year. We're kind of just sort of sitting in anticipation really.
01:07:15
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
01:07:18
Holmesy
Yep. No, I really like that. it's It's important to keep an eye on the news to see who's potentially injured and whatnot. It's important to keep an eye on what the the clubs are doing at training, but just remembering that, of course, they're trialing things at this time of year to see what they might have and whatnot. But until we actually see the the real games and and moving into opening round, just take everything with a grain of salt.
01:07:40
Holmesy
Make sure you're following us on X at PodPod AFL. We're continuing with our player profiles and releasing those guys that we think are value for your starting squads. Make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify or Apple Podcasts wherever or wherever you get your content.
01:07:58
Holmesy
We will be back next week with the next positional preview, which I think we're going to target the rucks, which will be a ah fair episode to get into. So enjoy the week and we'll chat soon.
01:08:23
Jon Harmey
Thank you.