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DEFENDERS - Top 6, Value Premiums and Mid-Pricers! #PODPOD
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Is the defensive line going to be one of the trickier lines to pick this year? It always seems that the top end defenders are fairly or over-priced, but with so many top end premiums having an early bye to start 2026, how will you go about picking players in your defensive line?
In this episode, the panel discusses everything you need to know in terms of the defensive line. Harmey gives who he thinks are the top 6 (15) averaging defenders, the panel discusses the top end premiums who they believe still present upside, under-priced premiums who can hopefully take the next step and score in-line with the top 6 and then discuss a whole bunch of listener requests.
The PODPOD is brought to you by Moreira’s Magic in 2026. All Holmes Files episodes will be available exclusively as a part of the 2026 Season Guide. As well as the podcasts, the Season Guide will also include:
- Player profiles and comments for all players in the AFL
- Best 22’s from the MM team
- Draft rankings
- DVP
- Strength of schedule
- Market Share
- Podcasts with Selby and Xavier Ellis
- Much much more!
Head over to moreirasmagic.com.au/membership to pre-order now - the guide will be released early January and updated right up until the start of round 1
Follow us on X:
The PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Lewy: @LewyAF
Harmey: @jonharmey
Dos: @HKdos
Sam: @grillis03
Jordy: @jordandsena
Dossy: @HKdos
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Transcript
Introduction & Episode Focus
00:00:18
Speaker
Good afternoon and welcome to the PodPod brought to you by Moreira's Magic. I'm your host Holmesy, three-time top 10 finisher and twice runner-up in AFL Fantasy Classic. Welcome to the first of our positional preview podcasts where we go through line by line and today we are starting with the defenders. We're going to go through premium options, mid-priced options and all the players that we believe are relevant and that you should be considering for your AFL Fantasy Classic teams.
00:00:45
Speaker
We don't have Geordie today on the pod, unfortunately, but we do have the celebrity rock star himself. I normally go to John Harmy first, but when we have this bloke on the pod, we need to go there first. So, Sam, thank you for gracing us with your presence, mate. How are you?
00:01:03
Speaker
i'm I'm very well, Holmesy. Settling into new dad life nicely. um No, the the honour is all mine to be welcomed back into the fold.
Fatherhood's Impact on Fantasy Performance
00:01:12
Speaker
I heard there was a few, you know, technical issues there wasn't quite the same gel the same vibe on those first few episodes you needed to bring in someone to just bring up the energy a little bit so uh very happy to be here and fill my role i'm not sure if you realize yet sam but actually being a father gives you fantasy superpowers um every single winner for the last eight years have all been dads you know welcome to the club
00:01:36
Speaker
Thank you. And I didn't mind the new rev up you gave yourself at the top of the episode there. Two time runner up. You slipped that into the introduction very nicely. Holmesy, you say you're saying Ashley's Bombers was a dad, are you?
00:01:53
Speaker
Very good, John Harmy. Parent, we'll say. Parent, well done. And yes, we do have two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019, John Harmy with us, who just quietly has been a bit cheeky pre-pod, so I'm looking forward to the episode today. Harmy, how are you? Yep, not going well, thanks, Host Holmesy. Just ah excitement levels rising as we anticipate the game opening this week, which will be excellent. I've had to pull out the pen and paper and start making a few...
00:02:20
Speaker
notes of who to bring into my team. Darcy Parrish first picked in the midfield. So it's going well. There we go. Yep. News is that the the fantasy website and app will be launching mid to late this week. So hopefully in the next handful of days, we'll have the screen in front of us and we'll be able to start picking our squads for real. And and as Louis said, have the players in front of you in a nice drop down menu to sort through. Lou, mate, how are you?
00:02:48
Speaker
I'm well, mate. Yes, I'm very excited. The long weekend coming up so we can all hopefully spend some time on our phones and submit our version ones of our fantasy team and go from there. It's quite exciting.
00:03:03
Speaker
Yep, now it it sure is. Really looking forward to that opening and and it all becoming real. So as I mentioned, we're going to go through the defenders that
Fantasy Game Launch & Team Strategy
00:03:10
Speaker
today. We were hoping that the game would have opened by now so we can start to look at ownership numbers and just see where the community is starting to go. but That's not to be, so hopefully it'll be open by next week and we'll have it for other positions and maybe we'll check back in a few weeks' time just to just to see where the community is going for the defenders. But before we do get into the defenders and the chat today, we do have some hot topics to to kind of
AFL's New Interchange Rule & Fantasy Impact
00:03:34
Speaker
go through. So right off the top of the bat, there was an article that was was released by afl.com.au today and it was centred around what some of the AFL coaches are saying in regards to how they're going to use the fifth interchange player
00:03:49
Speaker
in season 2026, Lou. So why don't you just go through that for us a little bit and and we'll have a little bit of a discussion about that. Yeah, well, we were sitting here a couple of months ago sort of rejoicing that we don't have to worry about the sub anymore and have some of our fantasy weeks ruined. But today, yeah, Kautumi tweeted out, um and I'll read it word for word, clubs are weighing up using their new fifth player on the interchange as a pseudo-substitute, holding the player out of games until later as they prepare for the AFL's
00:04:24
Speaker
new rules. So essentially we may be finding ourselves in a little bit of a tricky predicament and I know that we we may have mentioned this a couple of months ago but there might be a little bit of management from the coaches in terms of the time on ground for some players. are We'll come to see what that looks like but at first glance you do sort of think that maybe the rookies will be the ones that are going to be affected the most by that which may ah put us back to a little bit past square one on what we were dealing with last season.
00:04:57
Speaker
Yeah, Lou, I think you're right with that. And it kind of makes sense, right? Like just because we've got that extra fifth player on the interchange bench, they're not changing the number of overall rotations. It's still at 75. So AFL coaches are still going to want to have their best players on the field as much as possible. So they did speak about, you know, either holding it back like they did with the sub this year. And I suppose that makes sense because they can sort of sub them on. But then if there's an injury, it means that player can come back on. They've they've got a bit more flexibility there.
00:05:27
Speaker
I did like that some clubs might potentially look at that extra sort of half forward rotation so that they can all win so they can keep the pressure up, Harmi. But yeah, it's it's interesting. Does it make you a little bit more nervous about picking some of the rookies this year if if we're not going to know what what kind of role they have in the side?
00:05:43
Speaker
Yeah, makes you feel a bit sick really, doesn't it, thinking about that? But I guess the um saving point is we'll see a number of teams in round zero um experimenting or you know playing out with that. So we'll get to see a bit. But I mean, obviously, you'd want um five players on the bench all participating in the game appropriately, you would have thought. So guess we'll see.
00:06:08
Speaker
Yeah, it is interesting during the preseason, and we kind of speculated that some clubs might now change to more of a dual ruck setup, Sam. But in that article today, it does seem that, you know, if if clubs have a decent forward, that's ah enough of a pinch hit for the second ruck. It doesn't seem like they're going to go to that dual ruck setup. So hopefully the dual ruck setups that we've already seen, maybe they're the ones that stay and we don't see too many.
00:06:33
Speaker
Yeah, I think they seem to come in and out of vogue, the single and dual ruck setups. And many times it's kind of horses for courses. um You know, we saw Darcy and Jackson finally figure out and work really well towards the end of last year. But I think it depends on personnel and um more than, more than ummb you know, i guaranteed we'll see two rucks playing in every team across the league.
00:07:00
Speaker
yeah Yeah, absolutely. It's just, unfortunately, if we do see two genuine rucks, it's it's going to mean that they're they're unlikely options for us. But yeah, as fantasy coaches, we all typically know that.
00:07:10
Speaker
All right, let's move on to a little bit of injury update news, just to inform the listeners before we get on to the defenders part of
Injuries Affecting Key Players
00:07:17
Speaker
the podcast. Lou, so there's been a bit of injury news floating about. Why don't you give us some of the relevant names?
00:07:22
Speaker
Yeah, look, it feels like the last couple of weeks has been a bit Armageddon as ah all the guys have come back from their Christmas breaks and just about every single day. yeah I don't know about you boys, but I'm getting linked to a Mitch Cleary tweet or a Kowtoomy tweet about who's gone down at their respective match practices, but...
00:07:41
Speaker
I'll just list off a few names here. So the most relevant one today was obviously Dan Curtin with the knee injury. I know there was a little bit of interest there as he shifts into that midfield.
00:07:52
Speaker
Sid Draper, he's having a conservative approach with a groin injury. Dunkley and Fletcher are in the rehab group, but tracking for opening round. ah Jagger Smith is involved in match sim, which we want to hear. I think he will be probably the most selected player in fantasy this season. Dan Houston, ah hip surgery. So he's restricted until mid-January.
00:08:18
Speaker
That one definitely makes me a little bit nervous. I had some interest there, especially if Josh Dacos was moving into the midfield, but... um Having some hip issues going into mid-Jan just feels like the sort of interruption that you want to avoid, to be honest.
00:08:34
Speaker
um There's just lots of soft tissue injuries at the Pies though at the moment. So he's not the only one there. Nick Bryan still in rehab. He's going to be available in the early rounds. anybody hoping to pick a cheap ruck, Nick Bryan is not your man, unfortunately, but could be a an interesting strategy to trade into very early on if if he's selected.
00:09:00
Speaker
Clayton Oliver has done his calf, so that one's got a bit of an asterisk on it. Will Day, got to put a line through him. There was quite a bit of interest from me, and I know that you boys were pretty keen as well, but the shoulder has popped out. He's going to miss the start of the home and away season now, so perhaps that one gets handled to twenty twenty seven but he just seems to be a little bit too injury-prone in the midfield.
00:09:27
Speaker
James Sicily shoulder, full contact in February. Jake Bowie will miss significant time. I think it was six months, wasn't it, Holmesy, of this season? yeah Yeah, it'll be at least the first half of the season by the sounds of it, which is, as we've spoken about, significant for that backline role and how Melbourne line up.
00:09:46
Speaker
Yep, lots of points up for grab there. Gorn has a finger fracture, but he's going to be good for the state of origin. So you'd expect him to be fine for the start of the season if you felt like paying up.
00:09:58
Speaker
ah My man, Harmi, Jason Horne-Francis dealing with a bit of a foot injury. He's just resumed running. ah He'd be a nervous selection, I think, come round one. Just seems that feat.
00:10:12
Speaker
hang around until you can sort of get off of them and have a bit of a rest. So, yeah, if that's happened this side of Christmas, I'm not sure you want to ah be dealing with too much of that. Josh Smiley with a quad, still not full training. He's a basement price mid from last year, of course.
00:10:28
Speaker
Tom DeConing with a calf, not certain for opening round. Kind of makes Rowan Marshall and TDK a little bit of a... A bit nervous there. I think Romar will start like a house on fire now, but then, of course, um Tom DeConing will come back into that side. And finally, Callum Mills with a hammy. He's on modified training. So there's a couple of relevant names in there. a few of them are probably skewing more towards draft, but so far it has been a bit of a average start to the season in terms of the injury list.
00:11:02
Speaker
Yeah, and they say that this part of the preseason is actually almost the most important part in terms of getting the kilometers in the legs and making sure that you're nice and fit and ready to go come the start of the season. Now, that doesn't mean that players can't be fit and ready to go at the start, but it does make it ah a hell of a lot harder. And we do know that the main aim of AFL Fantasy is to get off to a hot start and make as much cash as you can quickly. So, Hami, picking players that are underdone because they've had soft tissue injuries at this time of the year is not ideal.
00:11:31
Speaker
Oh, no way. And that's right. I mean, if you've got a choice, you're tossing up between two people you really like and one's done half the pre-season, um you know, it's an easy decision, isn't it? I guess I've already mentioned one name, Darcy Parrish, going very well this pre-season so far. But if he misses two weeks, well, then gez it makes it a hard pick in your starting line-up.
00:11:56
Speaker
Pami, do you reckon the Essendon social media manager just has the post there ready to go, ready to upload for when it no doubt happens? No, no I don't. I'm bloody confident in you mate. Our starting line-up, you've got Caldwell, Durham, Parrish, Merritt.
00:12:13
Speaker
think it's the best midfield in the competition, Omsie. We just need a ruck, that sort thing. Yeah, no, I'm sure Lockie Blackiston's going to
Moreira's Magic Season Guide Launch
00:12:21
Speaker
really get it done for you against Big Lloyd Meek. round big army But it's not it's not the Essendon podcast. that's ah Let's move on. So before we get stuck into the start of the defenders, I just want to remind everyone that the Marrera's Magic Season Guide launch will be happening in the next handful of days. So once the game officially launches. So fingers crossed.
00:12:41
Speaker
The game will be out Wednesday or Thursday and and the guide will follow just after that. So super pumped with everything that Selby's got going on over there at Moreira's Magic this year. As always, there's going to be profiles for every single player in the comp and they include a comment, all of their recent averages, CBAs, pre and post by splits, junior scores, positional ranks and basically any data that you could possibly need to help pick your starting squad.
00:13:09
Speaker
There'll be a best 22 from Selby, myself, and then your own. And then also new this year is a a member consensus best 22. So when all the members put in their projections, that's going to form the overall consensus, kind of like ADP, but for a best 22. So you can see how the community um is looking at those top end premiums.
00:13:29
Speaker
There's a new market share page that's added and that's um going to be really big as I've been put on record that market share is a huge piece of data that we can r use moving forward for our research. Lou, you mentioned that one of the best parts you like about Selby's Guide is the DVP. What do you like about the DVP so much?
00:13:47
Speaker
it just gives you the ability to to break down, obviously, um the player in that position versus what that team has been giving up in points. So if you're looking for a bit of a green patch in terms of how easy a fixture might be, if a That next run of four games, for example, let's say they're all giving up 10 points to defenders or 10 extra points to defenders, then defenders are going to be who you want to sort of stream against those sorts of sides. So it just makes things a little bit more clear.
00:14:20
Speaker
Yep, and what I really like about the the DVP and the guide is it's not just um average points in that position as well. It's actually broken up into three separate categories. So you do have average points in that particular position for that type of player.
00:14:34
Speaker
But then we also have the total percentage of players in that per in that ah position that go above the average for that position. And then it also has the average score average highest score, sorry, in that position as well. So that's really relevant against, so teams that run tags, for example. So it might be a green team for midfielders because all of the midfielders typically score above their average.
00:14:58
Speaker
But in terms of average highest total score, it's actually lower because those teams tag and you don't quite get those ceiling scores. So breaking it down into those three categories, once again, is just extra data that can be used, which was super crucial for me late in the season last year in my climb.
00:15:14
Speaker
ah There'll be strength of schedule. So each in the guide for each player, you'll be able to see their opening five rounds and what their schedule is like in terms of hard and and good matchups. So that's really cool.
00:15:24
Speaker
As always, there's going to be the weekly pod with selvi Selby and Xavier. There'll be my Holmes Files episodes and there'll be much, much more.
Top Defenders for AFL Fantasy
00:15:32
Speaker
So... There will be all the information the show description below. So make sure you go down there and check it out. And yeah, it'll be launching in the next few days.
00:15:41
Speaker
Harmi, we are kicking it off with you. So what we're going to do first is we're just going to go through your top six defenders that you believe will be the top six defenders for the year. And that's just going to open up a bit of discussion about some of these high-end premiums to see which ones might be a chance to start. So floor is yours.
00:16:00
Speaker
Yes, thanks, Host Holmesy. Look, of course, what you do is get the season guide and you take the defenders button and you sort them by projected average and you look at what the GOAT tells you is ah going to be the the best defenders and that's what you would do. But anyway, I've had a bit of a stab at it. So...
00:16:19
Speaker
um Boys, no real science to this. Feel free to jump in and criticise them as we go. I'll start them off with the number one priced defender, Nassiah.
00:16:31
Speaker
He comes in priced at an average of 111. got him regressing. so I've got him going back a few points, which should give you an indication about whether I'm starting him or not.
00:16:43
Speaker
um And I put him back at 108 averaging player, which is what he averaged when he was a midfielder last year. So, you know, scope for natural improvement. Perhaps its scope for tags in the midfield, perhaps. I guess we'll see. So Nassai, number one there.
00:16:58
Speaker
Then I've got Lockie Whitfield, who does have an injured score, surprise, surprise, in his average last year. um So Whitfield comes in priced at 105, noting that he's got a buy in round four.
00:17:15
Speaker
Coming in at number three, Connor Ozie, someone who I expect to be going up slightly this season, has a hot start, but with a favourable run. i'm Quite keen on Connor Ozie.
00:17:28
Speaker
And then I'll probably put those three boys together as a bit of a top of the line, really, as a tier, if you think of it from a draft ranking perspective. ah I think that those three...
00:17:43
Speaker
are probably in the running for the highest averaging defender. What do we think about those three guys? Yeah, Harmi, I think that's a pretty general consensus at this point in of the year.
00:17:55
Speaker
Whitfield pretty much is what it is. You take out his injured score from last year and he's still that 109, 110 averaging defender. I don't think GWS want to play the same way that they did last year where the ball just lived in their back 50 and it just chipped around befi between Whitfield and Ash. I think they want more presence in the midfield to hold the ball perfectly. forward of center, but I think he's, what, 31 now, so maybe he does regress a little bit, but I still see him up there with Nasaya and Rosie.
00:18:22
Speaker
Rosie, if he's got that halfback role, lose, reckons Porter going to hold onto the ball a little bit more. Even in that low fantasy scoring system last year, him and Butters just have that such market share in that team. So I think he's got scope to improve a little bit. You're right there. And Nasaya is the interesting one, Sam. oul I will go to you for Nasaya.
00:18:41
Speaker
i think I think the attention will come as St Kilda get a little bit more, hopefully, competitive. I ah don't think coaches will just let him do what he wants. But at the same time, when they did show a little bit of attention, he would just go into the back line anyway just to to pick it up a little bit. But what do you think? Natural progression for Nassai? Is there scope for him to improve or do you think we try and get him at a later later point at ah maybe hopefully a cheaper price?
00:19:05
Speaker
Yeah, I think we do try and target getting him later. i could very much see him pushing out a similar average this year. um Ross kind of like used him a little bit flexibly during the year. Sometimes he would obviously be in midfield and then he would, as you said, roll back into the halfback line if he wanted to pick up some pill. But we also saw him a bit forward of centre as well.
00:19:27
Speaker
So um I'm very keen to see where he sets up in the first few games and how he gets used in the St Kilda game plan.
Debate on Including Nassai in Fantasy Teams
00:19:34
Speaker
um So for that reason, I'm kind of happy to watch him for a couple.
00:19:38
Speaker
At 111, I think you said he's priced at, I'd be looking to try and pick him up, kind of like we did with those other guys like Dacos last year. Try and pick them up after the yeah first six rounds. Maybe they have a bad patch.
00:19:51
Speaker
Have a look at the run and see if you can see a spot um a few weeks in a row where he might go unders and then look to pick him up up then. Yep. Opening round against Collingwood. So we'll get a look there, but you wouldn't think there's a tag.
00:20:05
Speaker
Melbourne in round one. So we we genuinely have no idea whether Melbourne will run with a tag or not, and we won't see that in opening rounds. So that's ah that's an unknown. And then they have GWS, which they did go away from the tag later on in the year, but they're still a tough team to score against.
00:20:22
Speaker
And then Brisbane before they're by. So two relatively tough matchups in the first three. before the buy I think Nassai is just one you let go through to the keeper and and try and get him a bit later Sam yeah I was just going to touch on the tag point I don't know if he's quite in that so day cost like status yet where he's he's not exactly playing in an amazing team and he's you know probably not considered yet one of the top five okay players in the comp and so I don't know if the attention will come straight away at the start of the year um
00:20:55
Speaker
There were of only a few teams which repeatedly rolled out the tag, and then there was a couple of teams that kind of were circumstantial. Ed Langdon, for example, is the one that stands out to me from last year. I can't see Ed Langdon going to Nazair if they play them in the first 10 rounds or so.
00:21:13
Speaker
Beautiful. Harmi, let's go four to six. Okay, no problem. So my next one coming in, um well, priced an average of 101. Seems to go 100 regularly. It's Jack Sinclair. So um if Nassai goes into the midfield, there's got to be some ball down there in the back line of the Saints.
00:21:35
Speaker
Interesting last year that when Nassai was in the midfield, Sinclair didn't really get a bump. But anyway, I think that he's going to come in averaging about what he's priced at. So that puts him at number four for me there.
00:21:49
Speaker
Number five, where have I got? Number five is Josh Dacos. Now, injured at the moment, so you'll need to see what's happening there.
00:22:01
Speaker
I think Josh Dacos will end up in the midfield. um Whether it is this season or not, I'm not sure. They obviously like what he brings to the side. Otherwise, um they wouldn't have given him the plum roll last year and they would have given it to Houston, which was a bit of a head scratcher. But anyway,
00:22:19
Speaker
He's a guy that does have an ability to average more than what he's priced at currently. I think that he will probably pick up a couple of points this year, um maybe even um do a bit of a swap with Scott Pendlebury mid-back, back-mid, but we'll see what happens. But anyway, Josh Tachos there, five, six,
00:22:41
Speaker
Lockie Ash, you said you don't think, I think, Holmes, you said you don't think that GWS can continue to do what they did last year. Well, I think that it would be Ash that would go back a little bit because Lockie Whitfield is just a fantasy pig. He just bloody can rack it up wherever he is on the field. I do feel as though it would be Ash that will go back slightly, feel as though he overperformed a bit last season. Apologies, Sam.
00:23:07
Speaker
um I'll probably go two more. So we're talking about eight, maybe. So the next one I've got is Christian Salem, and he could really be anything given you've got, well, Steve May and Bowie out of their back line from last year.
00:23:24
Speaker
Trent Rivers, we're not sure, but potentially going into the midfield as well. So it's bloody Salem season down there, really. I've got him going up a couple of points.
00:23:34
Speaker
which would sit him at the seventh averaging um defender there, but he could be even higher, really. And then I'll go one more. I'll go my man, Colby McCurcher, who I expect to be playing on the back flank as a distributor, outperforming Caleb Daniel every week in a north back line there. I really have a level of faith that that's where he should be and it would be good to see him there and pick up some points on his average from last season.
00:24:08
Speaker
Yep, yep, don't mind that, Harmi, and we're going to go a little bit more into depth into some of those players a little bit later on. I can see a lot of those points, and that's going to be a good segue into our strategy and structure chat, Lou.
00:24:19
Speaker
Harmi rattled off eight names there, of which only Connor Rosey, Christian Salem, and the last one, Colby McEacher, don't have an opening round bye.
00:24:31
Speaker
are at the moment with how you're looking to structure up your defense really only looking at one of those players as a sort of d1 and then looking to maybe go a little bit cheaper looking at those mid-priced underpriced premium options to help fill out your back line so talk to us about your structure Yeah, I think so. um you know, often in years past, I've been quite happy anchoring um my positions with somebody that I'm relatively confident in. And if I were going to choose between, you know, those, that upper tier that you mentioned, Harmi, Connor Rosey without the buyer certainly stands out.
00:25:04
Speaker
Whether or not I select him, we we'll see. But I think we're definitely, and I think every coach I've spoken to has certainly circled the defensive line as probably the one that has the most mid-prices with a little bit of confidence up for grabs.
00:25:20
Speaker
There's a lot of blokes there that who can sort of make that jump from 75 to 90 plus. And that's that sweet spot that we've seen in years gone by that um you can really capitalize on. And As we sort of transition as fantasy players a little bit, we've seen that the outside guys are starting to accumulate more points and naturally that does skew towards the defensive line.
00:25:44
Speaker
um We mentioned it last week on the podcast, the midfielders are scoring less now. So potentially I'm looking at a structure where I'm quite strong down back in terms of my mid prices and maybe I'm spreading the load elsewhere in my team.
00:26:01
Speaker
Can I just say something Holmesy about that early buy? I've mentioned Nassiah, Jack Sinclair, Lockie Whitfield, Lockie Ash, All of those guys have got the round four buy, which is the easiest buy of the lot you've only got two teams, the Saints and GWS. So as long as you're not heavy in your midfield or forward line on those two, everyone's probably got Flanders, right? But if you don't have much else, I mean, there's potential for you to pick one. it's all I'm saying.
00:26:33
Speaker
yeah Yeah, no, i I do agree with that. I mean, if we look at GWS, they opened with the bull ah so they sorry they got Hawthorne in opening round, which actually was a relatively good matchup for defenders. Then they go into the Bulldogs, which has been good for defenders, into St Kilda, which on their day is good for defenders, but is up and down. And then they go into Collingwood. So in terms of defenders, it's actually a pretty decent run. So Yeah, maybe a Lockie Whitfield being a little bit unders. ah i'm I'm with you, Harmi. I think Lockie Ash potentially comes back a little bit, but at the same time, we didn't expect him to keep going on with the way that he did for the 100-plus average that he did this year, and he kept getting it done, so that could be him now. So, yeah, ah definitely not going to definitely not going to rule it out, Sam.
00:27:17
Speaker
Yeah, Harmi, I was just interested. You didn't mention Max Holmes anywhere on that list. For a guy that averaged 100 first-time playing... Oh, no. What have I done? Is he is he dead? Mid-only. Well, there you go. honey You are right, though. Mid-only.
00:27:35
Speaker
As you can tell, I'm very rusty. um The other one that I was going to say was ah the person I did the profile on, which I don't know if it's come out yet or not. but James Sicily.
00:27:46
Speaker
ah had him penciled in. i've kind of been conservative and said maybe he could pump out 88, but we know what Sicily can do if he gets on a roll. Is there any interest from you guys there?
00:27:58
Speaker
For me, Sam, personally, no, just because they've shown to still throw him forward, which kills his scoring. Now, I think their forward line is going to be a lot better this year with Mitch Lewis returning, Cal Shadir, Chol had a real sort of breakout year as well. So I think that there might be a thing of the past, but I also think Cicely's scoring might be a thing of the past as well because now they're so there's so much solid in the back line, they're not required to to really go through him and hold the ball anymore.
00:28:27
Speaker
So I think for that reason, he's not. But he does have an early buy as well, that round three buy. So I think there's value there, but probably just a little bit in draft. If he was 88, Sam, he would come in at about 14 for me. So he's not even close to that list. um But he did have shoulder surgery as well.
00:28:46
Speaker
I don't know. I don't think he's in full training yet. So I'm not sure how he will start. Harmi, where would you put D6? Very early stages, but what are you thinking a D6 will average this season?
00:28:59
Speaker
D6, I had Lockie Ash and had him at 95 points. 95. ninety five Yep, so yeah you're kind of predicting that all the defenders come back a little bit, Harmi. It's interesting if stop if stoppages, well, if he's D6 and he was D6 this year, then the the defenders are coming back a little bit.
00:29:19
Speaker
Got him coming back a bit, got some others going up, got Rosie going up, Whitfield going up. Yeah. Colby McEacher definitely going up. So, yeah, not all going back. It is interesting to look at though, right? Because we we look at these top-end defenders and think there might be so a little bit upside or or whatnot. But you just have to look to last year, right? So Whitfield went from 111 to 105. Now, that was that injury-affected game. Zorko from 110 to 101.5. She's from to Flanders to Martin to adjusted without that injury. So they do have scope to come back.
00:29:53
Speaker
It's really super important that we pick the players that have a little bit of value for our starting squads to make some cash, Lou. But before we move on to some specific players, you want to talk to me about the potential of starting two rookies in defence structure-wise if they're there to pick this year?
00:30:10
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, certainly. well on On field, Yeah, yeah, of course. um Look, as we've seen um in the all the ah draft content, that some of these guys are actually going to score just as well as midfielders gone by. So, you know, Josh Lindsay, Carmichael, Bodie Uland, those three are guys that should be able to score just as well as some of the mids that we've come to select midfield.
00:30:38
Speaker
years previous as we've said the points seem to start skewing towards those uh outside sorts of players and i think those are the guys that i'm most confident can put in a fieldable best 18 score week in week out as opposed to um some of these other guys that are going to be sort of biding their time in that half forward position which can be a little bit of a graveyard shift so I really want to leverage my rookies in defence this year. I think they're going to have the most scoring power and if I can get them on the field as much as possible, I can really see myself manipulating my structure so that it is that way.
00:31:16
Speaker
Yeah, and kind of jumping ahead, but it does seem at the moment we are a little bit short on forward rookies, at least ones that can score with Draper being managed. And I thought Dev Rob would play, but he it seems like he's fighting for a spot. It doesn't look like Finn McRae is anywhere close to their best side at the moment. and And then the options start to get thin. So if we can't pick the rookies in the forward line, yeah maybe we have to put a couple in defence and maybe ah a two or three in the midfield because we do have to pick him somewhere. So yeah, I don't hate that.
00:31:47
Speaker
Lou, Sam, did you have something to add before we move into individual players? I just wanted to jump on the Salem ah call, which I really like, by the way, because there is a real dearth of ball users back there now.
00:32:00
Speaker
ah we do we have i always think we have rose-tinted glasses when it comes to Salem, though. He kind of seems to cap out at that 90, even when he's playing at his best. do you really What did you see him coming in at for the year, Harmi? Like 95? Is that where you had him? Yeah.
00:32:16
Speaker
Yeah, that's right. He's priced at 93. I've got him 95. There's a couple of games last year where he got like 130 something. So, I mean, he's got the ceiling there. It's just about whether he gets more, a greater proportion of the ball that's down there.
00:32:35
Speaker
Yeah, and I think on top of that- sorry louke you did actually go at ninety eight post buy as well so there was an injured game in there last year so you take that out he was ninety pre-bu and then ninety eight post by rough give or take and that's why sits at that ninety three average and actually looked back as well it it seems like when he's fit and healthy that ninety is his floorw And then if we see the bump, because now there's more kick-ins available with May and Bowie now out, and he now controls that. And and we still don't know how Melbourne are going to play. Stephen King's come across from Geelong.
00:33:07
Speaker
Geelong were a high-marking team this year. They like to control and then really go in that in that Brisbane model. Now, Melbourne might not be able to do that. But if there's more of a market share back there, Lou, I can actually see some upside in Salem. Now, whether there's enough to start, it would be a ballsy pick. But yeah, I at least like bumping him up in draft. I've got him pretty close to a top six defender too.
00:33:27
Speaker
yeah Yeah, I'm quite bullish. And you mentioned Stephen May and Jake Bowie. I think reading the tea leaves, Stephen May is probably going to have a lesser role or maybe play a little bit less football this season. And Jake Bowie, he's just not going to be there. So adding up their kick-in numbers from last season, there's you know potentially 100 kick-ins up the grabs. Yeah. Salem was very clearly the number three man who was taking those kick-ins with a quite a drop off to Trent Rivers from there. So if he can pick up the slack on kick-ins alone, I can see some real potential upside. And him being one of the more senior players back there in that young Melbourne rebuilding side, I think that's one that could demand the football. and
00:34:09
Speaker
We have seen where you know when there is a team that's struggling to to sort of score, they will just tend to possess the ball in the back half a little bit more. and I think Christian Salem will get involved with that. and That 98 post-buy is quite encouraging as well.
00:34:27
Speaker
Sam, I'll throw to you now for our the only other premium option that I have available for us to kind of consider for our starting squad, and Jordan Clark. Now, Freo clearly dropped away their marks and how they wanted to play last season in the back end of 2024. But at the same time, Clark did go 97 the year prior, so dropped back to 90. So on that alone has some potential upside.
00:34:50
Speaker
Luke Ryan in the rehab group. So he's coming from a ah ah far way back in terms of his fitness base. And I really hope Freo don't want to play as much through Luke Ryan and and really give Clark more responsibility and ball through him.
00:35:03
Speaker
He does attract a tag because he is so dangerous the way he sort of runs and and attacks the game. Is there any interest in a Jordan Clark? They do have a good run to start. Yeah, like the core, Holmesy. Yeah, we definitely saw Luke Ryan getting used a lot less offensively ah as part of the Frio game plan last year, particularly in the second half of the season.
00:35:26
Speaker
But, yeah, again, I just kind of question Clark's ceiling and ability to to really start pushing out those 120s, which we need our premium defenders to. I just don't think he's that type of player. But, you know, if if Luke Ryan isn't there, maybe he does um become that. Judd McVie, I think, got added over the offseason to the Freer backline. I presume he's going to play in the backline. um Kind of a ah similar player. I wonder if they're looking for more people to use the ball really nicely out of the backline. But I can definitely see a bounce back for Jordan Clark. Just query whether he starts to get up to that 100 average um that you kind of, I think, need for for your defenders. But look, if they've got a nice run to start, then I could definitely get interested
00:36:14
Speaker
Yep, no, I agree with that. Just wanted to just highlight and put him out there. Harmi, I'm going to go to you now. So some underpriced premiums that I want to sort of discuss. And these are players that we're picking, if we pick them in our starting squad, that that we're hoping can go from their average that they're at now and push that 90, 95 plus range to be on the edge of the sort of top 10 defenders and then hopefully hold them through close to their mid-season buy before um we then take them right up to the top. So the first one I'll start with is your boy, Colby McEacher, who you traded in round four last year as a bit of a pod. So you've you've been an early adopter.
00:36:51
Speaker
priced at 78 and he's underpriced due to that forward role to begin the season but if you have a look at the 22 career games that he's played in defense where he's had kick-ins he's been a 95 average so moving into that third year the classic breakout now has all the confidence in the world to start to take the afl by storm colby what do you what can you see him doing
00:37:15
Speaker
I can see him doing over 90 as a defender. ah I mean, you probably also didn't mention there a high junior scorer as a midfielder, though. So um became a defender in the AFL system because...
00:37:30
Speaker
You know, most of the kids that get drafted are midfielders, so I had to learn a new craft. And I think that they've invested time into him learning that and playing in the defence last year. And I don't see any reason why they wouldn't, other than if they've got a bunch of crap wingers and they need him to push up the ground, which I hope isn't the case.
00:37:49
Speaker
Yeah, just to play devil's advocate, like all of the stats point towards Colby, you know, being that 95 defender and being able to really break out for the season. But we have seen over his short career that they've thrown him around a little bit in terms of team needs. So that would be the that would be the thing that if Colby has the the role round one and he's in defence, that's great. We know that he's going to be probably that 90 to 95 guy.
00:38:13
Speaker
but you will need a plan to get off him if they do decide to throw him on the wing or in the midfield because that's where his scoring drops off and he's no longer going to be that player for us. But in terms of a starting squad option, Harmi, I'm right there with you as a lot of the rest of the community is.
00:38:27
Speaker
ah I'm going to skip over you for this one, Lou, because you've we've already heard your comments around him. But Sam, Myles Bergman, Priced at 78 as well. Rumored to be training with the midfield group this week. Josh Carr has come out and said that they like Bergman in that midfield role. He he adds that defensive pressure and he is a bit of a link man as well. He does typically bob up for marks and stuff. So if we look at his data last year, and admittedly it is a small sample size, but eight games above 30% centre bounces, he averaged 95%.
00:38:59
Speaker
And then six games above 50% centre bounces, he averaged 103. And the thing we have to remember as well is in those games, he would then get swapped into defence. And then when he was a defender, he wasn't really scoring. So that lowers his average even further. So in terms of a Myles Bergman, what would we need from an average in terms to be a good pick?
00:39:19
Speaker
And can you realistically see him doing it? I can. i can realistically see him doing it. um You've skipped over Lou, but I'm going to be singing a very similar tune here. um Yeah, I mean, the games when he played midfield, he he performed really well from a fantasy perspective. a Good pair of hands, likes a cuddle, um good ball user. So ah I definitely can see him being a successful pick for us this year and a good starting pick. We've talked before about the soft run. for Port Adelaide at the start of the year. So if you needed more encouragement, I think it's there. um
00:39:54
Speaker
Gosh, ah you know, if he can average 100 locked into a CBA midfield role, then I think it's been a great pick. Yeah, and we already spoke, Lou, about JHF having that interrupted preseason with his foot. um you know I think he's an upgrade on Wines. I think he's an upgrade on Drew. I think that role is there for him to take. The only thing will be, once again, is if they decide to swing him around, la Harry Perryman, and that's that's always going to be a potential because of how good he is as a lockdown defender.
00:40:23
Speaker
But, yeah, i I really like this one, Lou. Yeah, I think he's going to be one of the first selected in my team come the game opening. Beautiful. Lou, I'll stay with you. So the next one I want to discuss, and he's been brought up in the community for good reason as well, but Nick Newman priced at 72. So he gets the 30% discount off his 102 average in 2024.
00:40:47
Speaker
Also had a 98 average in 2023. So the scoring as a premium is there and that also included some pretty big runs. So 2024, 113 post-buy then in when he gets on a run,
00:41:03
Speaker
He's as good as any defender in the comp. Now, he is a little bit older, but we've seen that not really play a you know play a role in Zorko and Sinclair and Whitfield. These older guys in defence can kind of get away with it.
00:41:15
Speaker
Is there any reason why we wouldn't pick a Nick Newman to start? Not really, Holmesy. I think age is probably the main one which you brought up. But what we've seen from Nick Newman over a number of years is that he's very role dependent. And the last couple of years, 2023 and 2024, as you mentioned, he he carved a ah role in that defensive half rebounding for Carlton. And the ceiling was just, it was honestly unmatched some weeks to to what we had available to ourselves. So...
00:41:45
Speaker
In 2026, provided he has a full preseason, if he's lining up round one in a defensive distributing role, I think Newman priced at 75 is the exact type of guy that you want to be targeting very early on. And especially with that Richmond round one matchup where he can potentially tap into some of that ceiling and really get his his price and his average trending in the right direction. Yeah.
00:42:10
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not seeing a lot of downside from Nick Newman if he's got the role in 2026, but I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on it, Harmi. Yeah, just having a look at those defenders. I mean, he he is a good um starting option and as Holmes is highlighting here, one of the few that you'd expect to go up as a premium. I guess I will throw a world where you won't start him in round zero if he doesn't put up a decent score because they've only got round one and then they've got bye.
00:42:39
Speaker
So... If in round zero for any reason he doesn't hit the ground running, then you can afford to wait on him until his price starts to come up um in, you know I don't know, round five or something.
00:42:52
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, don't mind that, Harmy. Does have Richmond, there anybody who's going to be stealing his chips back there either? Is it Olly Hollands has been shifted up up the ground now, so it feels like Newman's all alone back there.
00:43:03
Speaker
Nick Haynes? Yeah, he's more of your your third intercepting tall, but yeah, point taken. Yeah, no, I was going to say something similar, Lou. I think, honestly, watching some Carlton games last year, they were crying out for someone back there to just be a bit of a level head and control the game. um We saw the Oli Hollands experiment didn't work.
00:43:25
Speaker
As we know, Saad's a run and gun. The other guys don't really have the ball used to to play that role, so I reckon he will definitely be locked back into his his his previous position.
00:43:38
Speaker
Yeah, and I think there'll be kick-ins available as well. 2024 when he was playing, Mitch McGovern was taking some kick-ins and outside of that, it's that it's quite bleak. So, yep, I really like Nick Newman.
00:43:51
Speaker
They're going to be rubbish, I think. I think they're going to take a i ah really think Carlton are going to take a backwards step. I've been their biggest supporter. I thought for sure they were in a window for like the last five years, but it's gone. They are terrible.
00:44:06
Speaker
You mean Liam Reedy, the number one ruck, is not going to take them to premiership glory? so i wouldn't have thought so, no. Harmi, this player is a podcast favorite.
00:44:18
Speaker
I'm pretty sure you picked him in one of our draft episodes a few years ago, mainly because I was spruiking him definitely wrongly, but got to bring him up due to what he's done before. So Liam Duggan priced at 79. It is gross. The Eagles don't score. However, he did go at 90 post-buy. He's averaged 96 in 2023, and he was 92 average adjusted in 2024 when you take out the injuries.
00:44:40
Speaker
Tom McCarthy rumored to be playing more midfield. So if that's the case, there'd be more ball back there for Liam Duggan. it's It's gross, but I just wanted to put it out there. Thoughts on Liam Duggan?
00:44:51
Speaker
No, because all the ball's going to Josh Lindsay off that back flank and he's going to be the highest averaging rookie that we get for the season, isn't it? No, look, I don't know. too I sort of did a fair list, but he didn't make the top... Well, what have I got?
00:45:06
Speaker
He didn't make the top 18, which means I don't have him going 90. I go him going under 85 at the moment, mate. But, oh, look, you just need to see a lot because last season, I mean, there should have been every opportunity for him to... rack it up the fantasy points down there, but it just didn't happen for him. And he sort of seems to get injuries at, ah you know, inopportune times and stuff as well.
00:45:30
Speaker
Yeah, it's going to be very hard with that Eagles side and and the total amount of fantasy points that they score and and not being able to hold onto the ball. But just wanted to highlight, potentially one to bump up in draft a little bit. i I think I probably like him more than a few of those options priced around 85, but yeah, don't think he's an option. In classic Lou, Sam Banks priced at 79. Now, he was a real breakout last year and it was really off the back of Jaden Short going down with injury in round nine. So he was playing prior to that but didn't really have a ah cemented role in the side. And from the point that Jaden Short went down, he averaged 90 points as that distributor of halfback. There was a couple of quieter games late in the season when Short was actually playing, but still from round nine onwards, he averaged 89. So still a young player, still scope for a bit of natural improvement. And if they want to go away from Short and Vlosten and start to develop the young guys, probably a bit risky and classic because you'd need him to go that 95 mark. But he's interesting, right?
00:46:30
Speaker
Definitely interesting. Had a great second half the season. Made a lot of money for those that jumped on him quite early as well. My my main concern is just being a young group, that the role may be a little bit inconsistent and his performances in that role as well, perhaps. I just don't think that he's got those true sort of premium scores in him just yet, which is going to bring that average down. And that floor is probably still um is probably still there just being such a young side. So at 79, I think you know there's a little bit of meat on the bone and I think draft coaches would be quite astute to pick him up ah in their own sides. But for me, and as a classic starting option, I think Sam bunk Banks is fraught with danger when you compare him to some of these other guys, which we've already discussed in a very similar sort of price range. In fact, for the last couple of guys, you can actually pick them up a little bit cheaper.
00:47:26
Speaker
Yeah, no, I agree with that, Lou. There's a lot of options around his price that have safer upside. Wouldn't surprise me at the end of the year if he if he can push his average up a little bit, but I'm not sure I'm willing to take that punt in classic just yet. Harmi, going to leave the next one for you, so I'm going to skip over to Sam. Talk to me about Kitty Coleman priced at 53. I know you were...
00:47:45
Speaker
A bit bullish on him. we we know what we can We know what we've seen from him before. We've seen him go 84 post-buy in 2023 and then had that that final series where he averaged 102 and basically had a half in the grand final.
00:47:58
Speaker
Club's come out and said that he's the fittest he's ever been, which he's going to need to be. He hasn't played for a while. My question is, with Fletcher and Wilmot, these guys having played and now seemingly gone past him, do we need a Dane Zorka to come out of that defence before Coleman's a serious option for us?
00:48:15
Speaker
Yeah, maybe, but also maybe not. I think his price is so low that um you can take a punt on this one. He's kind of at this stage locked into my side.
00:48:25
Speaker
i think it's more likely that we'll see one of those guys you just named Fletcher or Zorko move a bit further up the ground. and We saw a bit of a Wilmot coming of age over the last couple of years. i can really see him and in him and Coleman um taking the lead ah with Zorko and Fletcher pitching in off halfback. But You know, Zorko continues to surprise me. Every every year I think it'll be his last year or he'll break down, he'll need time away from the game, but he continues to perform and while that Lions team is still in a window, he will definitely play a lot of halfback.
00:49:02
Speaker
um i do I do think there's enough points back there though. ah Because of his price, I mean, even if he pushes out, you know, Wilmot's 75 or Fletcher's 80 as in his position, I think he makes us enough money as a starting pick.
00:49:18
Speaker
Yeah, yeah don't don't hate that at all. I suppose it's going to be that opening round watch. If he comes out in opening round, he's in that defence, he scores well and he's got that good role. we're We're all probably going to go there. I mean, it gets spicy picking him with a Newman and and some of the other options, but that's a conversation for another point in time. Harmi, the last one I'll get to before we get into our listener requests.
00:49:39
Speaker
One of your bomber boys, Jordan Ridley. Now, I've put him on here. Perennially injured, but there's no doubt that when he does play, he has scoring ability. And he's in here because he's priced at 63, right? So he's a guy that we've seen average 88 before, which was 96 adjusted when you take out his injury scores. And obviously it's tricky with him because he is always injured.
00:50:01
Speaker
He's averaged 85 adjusted in 2023 as well. So when he plays, he scores. My question for you is with the emergence of Archie Roberts, McGrath's the captain now, so they're probably going to want a little bit more ball to go back through him.
00:50:15
Speaker
With the emergence of Zach Reid, do you see Jordan Ridley as being a bit more of a lockdown role player or do you still think he has scope to score well enough for us in that Essendon back line? Well, he's way better than 63. I'll put that out there up front.
00:50:31
Speaker
um When Ridley really rose, i think it was 23 24,
00:50:37
Speaker
was on the back of him playing a pretty lone hand, taking all the kick-ins. um He was sort of the main distributor coming out of that back line every time. That isn't the case now.
00:50:49
Speaker
um As you say, there are there are other options that have risen. um I'm pretty confident he's already done a hamstring this pre-season.
00:51:01
Speaker
So i guess the writing's on the wall. We said earlier on that um we don't want players that are having injury-affected preseasons, and he is one. um Maybe keep an eye on it and if he comes out,
00:51:16
Speaker
hits a couple of 90s and he's getting a bit of a bump and you've got confidence in his body holding together for the rest of the season, you could certainly take a flyer on him. But, yeah, I just, I mean, as a Bombers fan, love the type of player that he is, but we just don't see it often enough.
00:51:35
Speaker
We saw the Bombers team, Harmy, towards the end of the year was a bit flexible in terms of roles and stuff and moving around. Who do you think plays the... assuming they want to play a similar way, who do you think plays the Nick Martin rolling back quarterback type role?
00:51:53
Speaker
Can you see anyone picking up the mantle there? Well, it could be any anyone of, well, it's probably Roberts, but it could be any anyone of Roberts, Redman or um the captain.
00:52:05
Speaker
So i think that... There's no one that's going to play the Nick Martin role per se, but I think that there are a number of good ah running, ball-using players coming out of our back line.
00:52:18
Speaker
I did read somewhere Pryor has moved up to the wing who played quite defensively last season. I'm wondering if Jordan Ridley sort of slides into that role just with the emergence of Roberts. you know You've got McGrath there who can dominate the pill and Mason Redmond's always fleecing in between. Do they just sort of...
00:52:37
Speaker
put the brakes on Ridley a bit as that distributor type and um getting around the ground too much, obviously with how prone is to injury and maybe he turns into a bit more of a defensive player back there.
00:52:49
Speaker
Yeah, I do like your thought there, Lou, because I think that that back pocket, another tall backman behind... Mackay. Yeah, Mackay and also Zach Reid would probably make sense to me, someone that could be a good option but could also play lockdown. A bit sad for Pryor, probably um because he'll be behind um the gate for Irini and Terzma.
00:53:19
Speaker
So, it probably makes sense though because had to wait a while to get a contract offer as the end of last season. So, yeah, perhaps at this point for him, he's a bit of depth.
00:53:32
Speaker
Yeah. And think the concerning thing before we move on nice and quick on Essendon is that in 2024, they were actually the highest scoring fantasy side because they just chipped around in the back line so much and held onto the footy and they dropped significantly this year. I think it was over a hundred points. Now, some of that would have been injury because they just didn't have the cattle out there playing, but,
00:53:50
Speaker
It did seem to me, Harmi, towards the back end of the year that they they were trying to play a different brand of footy and go a bit more direct rather than holding on to the footy so much. So, yeah, I'd be a bit bit cautious about some of the Essendon defenders. I don't think those high scores will be there that we've seen in the previous years. But let's jump into our listener requests now to finish the podcast. Thank you to everyone that sent those in. We haven't addressed any of the rookies just yet as we're going to wait closer to the preseason um to see whether they're likely to get a game or not. And we can do maybe a rookie pod or discussion later on down the track. But we're going play a little bit of quick like or dislike.
00:54:26
Speaker
And I'll just go around the different panelists here. So, Lou, first one here. Back to the Bombers. Mason Redman. So priced at 86, which is a career high. We spoke about some of the bodies returning. You really need him to be a top six defender, right? Yeah.
00:54:40
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not seeing any upside here. I think he'll be thereabouts the exact same and it's just not worth picking in classic. Agree there. Sam, Kane Farrell, priced at 78. Now, having owned him last year and watch watching him a little bit, ah doesn't have observable thirst. Yeah, thank you. Appreciate that laugh there, Sam. um Doesn't seem to have an an elite tank either, so doesn't really go for those cheap...
00:55:06
Speaker
cheap marks, but I know Rowan's quite keen on him for his stat of um how damaging he is and then wanting to get the ball through him. Now, Port Adelaide, Luke, going to slow the ball up hopefully and that could lead to a bit more free ball, Sam. But Kane Farrell, what do you think? Price at 78.
00:55:22
Speaker
No, dislike. I think as long as Rosie's in that back line, I don't see Farrell having a ah sudden you know surge of scoring. Yep, no, agree with that. Harmi, next one we have here is Canggu Giath. So CJ priced at 54 off the back of being sub four times last year.
00:55:42
Speaker
Did average 72 from 16 games in 2021, long time ago now. So there has been a little bit of scoring in the past, but what do you think about CJ? I'll just correct your stat there, Holmesy.
00:55:54
Speaker
Sub six times last season. That's crazy, isn't it? Yeah, Price at 52. Look, I wouldn't say there are 12 teams chasing him at the end of last season, but he's found a new home, ah trying to get some opportunity.
00:56:12
Speaker
I think he'll probably get a regular run, but I just don't think he's going to be a real fantasy stud. Louis, Jasper Fletcher, priced at 83. Now, did go at 91 post-buy.
00:56:26
Speaker
an elite player since he's come into the comp three years now. Always plays his role. don't think I've ever seen him play a real bad game, but we spoke about that market share of all those players in the Brisbane back line. You'd really need him to become that number one distributor back there, and I think they're pretty happy with sharing it. But is there any interest in a Jasper Fletcher?
00:56:44
Speaker
No, no interest. Not with those guys around at the moment. I think if you told me that he was going to be the only one back there, there would be a lot of interest and he'd probably be in my starting squad. But they're just sharing too many chips back there and they all sort of flatline at about that 90 mark, which just isn't enough coming in at that price.
00:57:04
Speaker
Sam, Josh Weddle, priced at 70, rumoured to be doing some training with the mids this preseason, but has never really showed scoring at the junior level. And for me, he's more impact over accumulation, which is not necessarily good for fantasy scoring, but does have the defender status. Clearly, any interest in a Josh Weddle?
00:57:25
Speaker
Not at this stage, but I know how highly he is rated by the Hawks team. And if he could get a role in the midfield, then you know we we talk about what are the things we look for. Well, a change in role is definitely one.
00:57:40
Speaker
The only tricky part is we've never actually seen him play there. So we don't really have anything to go by on what he might score. For me, less a starting option, more of a If he plays mid and suddenly pops a 90 or 100, then I get interested.
00:57:57
Speaker
Yep, and once again, opening round. So we'll get a look at that. There is the spot opened up with Will Day and Warple going out of that midfield. So there is opportunity. So you are right. Everything we look for in a preseason is there for Weddle. It's just the unknown of what he can do in that role. So keep an eye on him and definitely a watch in opening round.
00:58:18
Speaker
Contract year as well, always important. Harmi, Dan Houston, hip surgery in the off season. So we'll integrate back into training in late January. Priced at 67, has to be an option for us to look at because he's gone 94, 93 and 92 in the past. So there is historical scoring. Now he has moved across to Collingwood where they clearly didn't use him in that role last year. He was behind the Dacos boys and he really looked out of sorts.
00:58:44
Speaker
Does have the round two buy, but talk to me a little bit about Dan Houston. Yeah, I really just don't understand that one. I can only assume that Collingwood just chased him because he was the best available that they could get and they wanted to give up the capital to get him because he wasn't used to the best of his ability from what we can see. mean, the guy's an all-Australian defender, isn't he? Yet he slipped down a pecking order and affected his confidence. So didn't have a great season. He's even training fully. So...
00:59:17
Speaker
I mean, bump him up your draft boards, but I'm not sure he's somebody that we can be starting, particularly with the early bye. Yeah, definitely i have a look to see how fit he is to start the year. I think he definitely fits that mould of having a look opening round, having a look round one. And if you like what you see, maybe you can take a punt. But it's a yeah bit risky, but has scored well in the past.
00:59:41
Speaker
Lou Lawson Humphreys was requested. So priced at 70, started okay, went at 77 pre-buy, but then fell away. We do know that Geelong are a high scoring fantasy team, or at least they were last year, but without many stars, it was basically Baz, Max, Holmes, and then the rest kind of spread the load.
00:59:59
Speaker
Personally, I think it's hard to see the significant upside to really push the sort of top 10 defenders that we'd need at that 70 price tag. But, you know, he is quite an accumulator on his day. Is there any interest in a Lawson Humphreys?
01:00:12
Speaker
No, for me, he just lacks a little bit of ceiling that can sort of take him up into that upper echelon. I'm not too sure where the improvement's going to come from besides just lifting that floor a little bit as well. I think the Cats have a couple of blokes in that side that they like to use the ball through. And while Humphreys does distribute it to them, I don't think he gets involved enough to...
01:00:36
Speaker
To sort of get that fantasy score ticking along, I think he's a very effective 15 to 20 touch rebounding halfback, but it's just not enough to to have too much relevance in classic yet.
01:00:51
Speaker
Harmi, another bomber boy, Archie Roberts, priced at 85. First year averaged 85, second year averaged 85. So very impressive, has all the signs of what we look at for that third year breakout.
01:01:04
Speaker
I suppose what we spoke about before, the Don's liking to share it, you'd need him to really be that number one guy. Can you see it from a classic perspective? hot Not sure. He's a ripping player. I do like him in our team. But he'd look, at I mean, I just don't feel as though the last season is an easy thing to go by because we had so many injuries. It's like he ended up being the only bloke really at times in our back line who could use the ball well coming out of there. But yeah...
01:01:34
Speaker
It's probably about what he is, I think, mate. Louis, your boy last year, who you traded in and kind of derailed things a little bit, but sorry to bring that up. But let's go back to the well. So Xavier Lindsay, priced at 52, which if we adjust for injury last year, was 61. So 60 average from a first-year player is typically what we like to see, showing that they can integrate into the AFL system quite well.
01:01:57
Speaker
We spoke about the halfback role and the points up for grabs at Melbourne. Any interest in a Xavier Lindsay? Mid-only status us makes it hard. Yeah, the mid only is quite tricky. And I think you'd want to see something really significant in the preseason. Just as, you know, they've they've still got a lot of senior heads around that side. And I'm not sure Xavier is quite ready just to step up. I think, as we mentioned earlier, I think Salem will be getting the main chips back there as well as maybe a Trent Rivers Sam, Luke Ryan, another Frio boy. Just before we move off the homes here, what about Caleb Windsor for Melbourne?
01:02:37
Speaker
He had a really poor year last year, defender, priced to about you know early Lou, you looked at that one at all? ah Look, a little bit, but he's one extra year in the system above Lindsay, isn't he? And priced around the same. I think, like I said, you need to see something significant in the preseason. But for me, I think I'd rather shop elsewhere. It's quite an awkward price range, that sort of 50 to 60. I i think we talked about Gieth before. I'm actually kind of keen on him. I think if we talked about the Melbourne backline earlier, there's opportunity there. There's going to be points there.
01:03:18
Speaker
If Salem can do 95, someone else back there is going to do 80, 85 points maybe. I could see a GF or a Windsor off halfback filling that role.
01:03:28
Speaker
um But it it would be a giant leap. But those guys priced around 50 with sub games built in like a GF. I mean, that's the sort of stuff we do look for in our starting squads.
01:03:41
Speaker
Yep, yep, don't hate that. Sam, Harmi, I'll go to you just for the next one. So Luke Ryan just have to be put in here. I mean, he was requested price at 82 down from 102 and 99 the year price. So inbuilt value on what we've seen in the past, tick.
01:03:57
Speaker
But post-buying 2024 when Freo changed up their game plan after the coach kind of roasted a few players for being a bit selfish and and kind of stat padding,
01:04:08
Speaker
He went post-buy in 2024, he went 90, which I think is probably his best case. And then last, ah the year before that, you take out the 152 in that back half and it's actually 85. So priced 82, personally, I don't think there's much upside in that Freo back line with how they want to play. But is there any interest in ah in a Luke Ryan?
01:04:29
Speaker
Freo game style, no tick. Currently not in full training, no tick. So I think not. have the...
01:04:38
Speaker
Louis, nice and quickly, Trent Rivers priced at 82. So he's had two different roles over the last two years. So he's played 18 games with more than 30% CBAs for an 85 average and then 27 games with less than that for an 82 average. So did go up post by 87 and we do know Petrarca and Oliver are out.
01:04:58
Speaker
My question is, do we want him in the midfield or do we want him in the back line where there might be more points up for grabs? I tend to want him in the back line now. um There's so many of the Melbourne defenders that have been shifted out that I think he can actually do enough back there and maybe be that sort of 2IC guy that you mentioned just before, Sam, that can go that 85-90. Obviously, that wouldn't be enough, but...
01:05:22
Speaker
It is going to be interesting what position he plays next this season. Do you think he's going to make that shift into the midfield? It feels like he only goes in there for for spurts and then he's shifted straight back. And just looking at the Melbourne list, they do have a little bit more depth in the middle of the ground than what they're dealing with down back.
01:05:42
Speaker
Yeah, I don't think he's got the tank to be that full-time midfielder. He typically plays that sort of mid-70s time on ground. Now, maybe with the five-man rotation, he can be a bit more impact from the bench if that's the way Melbourne want to go. But I think he'd probably want him in defence. And Lou, I think that's where he'll sit. I think they'd probably want him as a bit more of a cooler head back there and and to protect the young guys back there. So I don't think he's an option. Maybe bump him up in draft a little bit if you like him a little bit more and and chase some potential upside. But I think for Classic,
01:06:11
Speaker
It's far too risky. Sam, there's one more that I have to go to just for you, and that's Callum Mills, requested by Geordie. So you're the Geordie replacement. Geordie's really big on Callum Mills. He's already had a hammy this preseason.
01:06:25
Speaker
With that Sydney midfield, we'd want him playing midfield, right? Yeah, nice to know I'm nothing more than a Geordie replacement these days. um ah Callum Mills, oh, tricky one. um i I actually think we kind of want him playing midfield, definitely, but do I see him playing there and in the Sydney side at the moment? Probably not.
01:06:49
Speaker
um Again, it's one that I'm definitely not starting, but I'm happy to jump on if I see it because we have seen him in the past. Huge ceiling.
01:06:59
Speaker
Yeah, I think if you do see him in the midfield, he's definitely one to look at. Once again, opening round cheat code, we'll get a look. We'll see what he's like. But he's been injury prone now for the better part of three years. Can't get his body right.
01:07:12
Speaker
Makes it very difficult in classic. But I know Jordy is quite big and he's a very good fantasy coach. Boys, that's going to wrap us up. That's been ah a huge episode. Well done on getting through all of the defenders. As I mentioned, when the game opens, hopefully this week, we'll start to get some ownership numbers and maybe in a few podcasts time, we'll check back just to get some ownership numbers on the defenders.
01:07:35
Speaker
Lou, just before we wrap up, really quickly, can you just give the listeners some advice on what they're looking for at this time of year in terms of the Twitter posts and training reports and not getting lost in the weeds too much and whatnot? So just just nice and quickly.
01:07:49
Speaker
Just make sure you've got a good filter. There's going to be a lot of people saying this and that about who looks a million bucks and take it with a grain of salt. And there's not much more I can offer than that, really. I think it it is the earliest part of the preseason right now. So, yeah, just write it down, keep a note of it. And if it's consistent in a month's time, then you can start to to read into it a little bit more.
01:08:15
Speaker
Perfect, Lou. Couldn't agree more. To all the listeners, make sure you're following us on X at PodPodAFL. I'm at HolmesesHeroes. The guide will be open hopefully in the next week, so make sure you're checking out morerasmagic.com to get that there. We'll be back with our next positional preview next week. We'll be going over the midfielders, so have a good week, and we'll see you again soon.