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Key Learnings from AFL Fantasy in 2025 #PODPOD
1.9k Plays2 days ago
Season 2025 has been and gone, with mixed results from the panel. Whether you were Holmesy who finished the competition in 2nd, or Harmey who finished in the Dossy ranks outside 10k, there are many lessons to be learned to help improve moving into 2026. On this episode, the lads bring learnings from 2025 as well as answer listener questions to help ensure we are all better Fantasy coaches in 2026.
The PODPOD is brought to you by Moreira’s Magic in 2026. All Holmes Files episodes will be available exclusively as a part of the 2026 Season Guide. As well as the podcasts, the Season Guide will also include:
- Player profiles and comments for all players in the AFL
- Best 22’s from the MM team
- Draft rankings
- DVP
- Strength of schedule
- Podcasts with Selby and Xavier Ellis
Head over to moreirasmagic.com.au/membership to pre-order now - the guide will be released early January and updated right up until the start of round 1
Follow us on X:
The PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Lewy: @LewyAF
Harmey: @jonharmey
Dos: @HKdos
Sam: @grillis03
Jordy: @jordandsena
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Transcript
Introduction to the 2026 AFL Fantasy Season
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's your host Holmesy here, three-time top 10 finisher and twice runner-up in AFL Fantasy Classic. Welcome back to the Pod Pod for our first episode in 2026 and it is going to be a big AFL Fantasy season.
Reviewing 2025 Learnings
00:00:35
Holmesy
We were going to start with our positional previews as we do at this time of the year. But figuring figuring that the AFL app isn't open yet, the Fantasy app, we're just going to go through a little bit of learnings from last season just to tie that all up to see what we can sort of bring to the table and bring towards the new season. And then we'll get into our positional previews next week.
Panel Insights with John Harmy
00:00:57
Holmesy
As always, we do have a full panel this week. We have two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019. John Harmy back with us after he skipped our our draft episode. He didn't want to give his secrets away too early in the preseason, but it is good to have you, mate. How
Staying Updated with Team Dynamics
00:01:12
Holmesy
are you?
00:01:12
Jon Harmey
Yeah, well, thanks, Holmesy. It's been nice over the break to have a look look at a bit of footy stuff and trawling the training reports on big footy and all of that sort of stuff. So I've been getting quite keen for the season ahead.
00:01:28
Holmesy
that's ah That's a good segue in because we do have Louie here, but Harmi, you've got to play your role. Louie is the one that goes deep in the weeds in big footy at this time of year and and gives us the nuggets. Lou mate, how are
Excitement and Launch Timeline for New Season
00:01:40
Holmesy
you?
00:01:40
Lew
ah Not so much anymore. um it's It's filled with a lot of nuffies these days, but I guess I would be in that club, so shouldn't be throwing stones. But ah I'm ah'm quite well, boys. I'm keen to talk fantasy for 2026. I reckon I've said that about six times now on all our podcasts that we've done. We've got about a year's worth of podcasts since October, so it feels real now. I think the the game should open within about a week or two, and we can actually start getting our fingers on the app
00:02:10
Holmesy
Said it once, I'll say it again, Lou, this is the most exciting time of the fantasy season.
Key Learnings from 2025: Listener Engagement
00:02:14
Holmesy
No one's wrong. Everyone's improving. And it's just a chance to just chat and and really get amongst it. So, yeah, really looking forward to it. And we do have Jordy with us again today, just on a quick break before you jet off again on the the train tonight, mate. But how are you?
00:02:29
JORDAN D'SENA
Yep, that's it. Just got off the train couple of hours and we'll be off to Sydney tonight. But um yeah, I'm going good. As you said, listen, a lot of pods. And yeah, I think those people have sort of come out now. It's the new year and I'm seeing a lot more chat about fantasy um just with our mates and whatnot. So i keen for the game to open.
00:02:49
Holmesy
Yeah, I'll tell you what, i I don't know if it's just me, Jordy, but it it does seem like there's a lot more content, even more than usual, flying around at the moment, which is ah a really good thing.
00:02:56
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah.
00:02:58
Holmesy
Makes the game a little bit harder because, you know, all the opinions are out there and it's it's very hard to to sneak anything through these days. But, yeah, it's... ah Yeah, it's ah it's a great time of year.
00:03:08
Holmesy
So as I mentioned off the top, what we're going to do today is we're just going to have a bit of a sort of round table about little things that we've learned from 2025. We've got learnings from a ah coach that finished in the top five and then we've got some learnings from you, Harmi, in the Dossie rank.
00:03:23
Holmesy
So we're bringing we're bringing it all together. And we're all going to learn so we can be better in 2026. And then we opened it up to the listeners as well. So we can kind of discuss things that they want to sort of learn as well. So we'll get we'll get stuck straight in. This will be very conversational. But Lou, as the season pro, we're going to get you to to to start off the top. So yeah, let's get it going. What did we learn from 2025?
Trade Strategies: Steady vs. Impulsive
00:03:46
Lew
Well, I think for me in 2025, and especially given that we had all these excess trades that we were able to sort of deal with, is um is not to not to outsmart myself um later on down the track. So I think there's so many little advantages and just little bits and pieces that you can do to to have a really good week. But sometimes you can just find yourself painting yourself into a corner. And I think that...
00:04:14
Lew
is more pronounced now that we've got that handful of extra trades, which we have haven't had previously. um ah just think not every lever needs to be pulled. you know Often the boring, most logical trades are going hold you the most steady. And I think that's where I did fall into some traps because it felt like we had all these trades in hand given the the broken part of the first half of the season and then the five-round buy period. that it just it made things not too easy, but it was just a bit of a playground in terms of what you could do with your fantasy team, whereas in previous years it's been you know more of a jail
00:04:52
Holmesy
Lou, do you have an example? are we Are we talking like the start of the year? Are we talking towards the end? Like, do you have an example of of how you kind of paint put yourself in a corner and and sort of try to outsmart yourself?
00:05:04
Lew
I think that five-week bye period is probably where it got me the most. You know what bye rounds you're going to be the most strong on. And sometimes, instead of accepting that, you try to take, you know, Rob Peter to pay Paul to try and get a decent score one week. But, you know, quite often, if you just...
00:05:24
Lew
Steady the ship and go with what's going to improve your team outside of the buyers overall. That's generally the better um sort of route to take.
00:05:36
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it's it's such a tricky one. And I know you hate bringing this up, Lou, because we've spoken about it so many times on different podcasts. But I've been caught in the trap many times over the last few years in terms of trying to outsmart, but outsmarting myself with the Tom Phillips example of 2021. So, you know, trading off a highly owned player um and getting onto a ah pod because it worked back in 2021.
00:05:59
Holmesy
And then you try to recreate that the next year and you end up, myself trading out an Errol Goulden or a Stephen Cornelio, someone that's really popular and they end up burning
Popularity vs. Performance: Player Selection
00:06:08
Holmesy
you. So I do, yeah, i I do really agree with that. But at the same time, it's like you're playing against 100,000 people where sides are so similar. You do have to differentiate as well. So that's where so I suppose the fantasy IQ comes into it too.
00:06:22
Lew
Yeah, no, that's right. But also just on that, I think, and maybe I'll just parlay this into into another learning, Holmes, since you brought it up, is is not always shying away from those popular-owned players. And this is especially apparent later on in the season when, You know you you might like a player and they're sitting at 30%, 35%, 40% owned.
00:06:42
Lew
But it's just important to remember that you know the the combination of your team is what's unique. It's not the sum of its parts. It's the actual whole team itself. And I think sometimes we get caught up in that not picking a pod, we're not going to be able to make up ground, but it's actually you know an accumulative effort there and you can still make up ground by having the best team. I know it sounds pretty simple, but that's where I'm at.
00:07:07
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I think it's it's a pretty fair point though, that Lou. mean, the vanilla players, sometimes you need them in your side anyway because they're the ones that can take the competition away um from you. So things like Harry Sheasel, Nick Dacos for last year, Brodie Grundy, players that would have been common in that top 100 or top 1,000 coaches' teams, but you needed them, didn't you, for the last five rounds of the season?
00:07:36
Holmesy
Yeah, and I remember you talking about it last year, Lou, and and me kind of backing it up as well, where you do hear you know you can't trade into that popular premium because everyone else that's ahead of you already has that premium and then you're just matching them and how you supposed to jump ahead? But the point you made about your team being unique and sometimes needing to match the popular p player so that the rest of your team can do the work to catch up, I think is a crucial part. Jordi, when...
00:08:03
Holmesy
Do you sort of agree with Lou and his points here in terms of trading into the popular guy sometimes and not trying to outsmart yourself?
00:08:12
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah, definitely. I fell into that trap as well. I'm looking back on my trades actually. In round two, I went to Noah Anderson and I had the money to actually go to Jordan Dawson, but he was the he was the pick that everybody had. And I thought, oh, I'll try and get on the next guy.
00:08:27
JORDAN D'SENA
But it didn't come off. And really, I should have just gone to Jordan Dawson and matched with everyone else. And I think, again, with as Louis was saying, during the buys, I did try and sort of jump off that popular guy. And that was the Harry Sheezer trying to get ahead and both of those trades really didn't actually help me at all. So it's definitely something going to take into this year.
00:08:48
JORDAN D'SENA
um Yeah. Those, those learnings and, you know, you can, I really, I should have Jordan Dawson from round two if I had the chance.
00:08:57
Holmesy
Yeah, i I just think these days, like the the popular players are the popular players for a reason, right? Like we we do talk about the podcast Echo Chamber, but the comp is just so competitive now.
00:09:08
Holmesy
So many coaches know what they're doing. So if a player is popular for a reason, more more than likely you need to you need to jump on and and then you just play around that and and try to outsmart everyone else in in other ways. But yeah.
00:09:21
Holmesy
Absolutely love that, Lou. Harmy, I'll go to you next. What did your year in the dossier ranks teach you and how can we avoid that this season?
Learning from Past Mistakes: Player Expectations
00:09:30
Jon Harmey
Yeah, what I learnt, Holmes, is that you shouldn't have Tom Stewart in your side. I started with him, was terrible, and then I brought him in during the course.
00:09:39
Holmesy
Christ at 80, isn't he, Harmy? We going to go again?
00:09:42
Lew
so
00:09:43
Jon Harmey
Don't do it.
00:09:43
Lew
Yeah.
00:09:43
Jon Harmey
So there you go, learning done. No, the thing that I sort of have looked at is... is that the game is changing and that as fantasy coaches, we need to adapt to that.
Evolving Game Dynamics: Role of Versatile Defenders
00:09:58
Jon Harmey
I guess if I think back 2017, 16, you know, that sort of period of time, part of the game was chasing those inside and midfielders that stood around the stoppages and accumulated 40 possessions a game.
00:10:14
JORDAN D'SENA
Thank you.
00:10:16
Jon Harmey
That's not the way the AFL wants it to be run. And that's not the way that we as fantasy coaches are going to be successful moving forward, particularly with the way that the rule changes have been applied for this upcoming season. So I'll give you a few examples. I had a look back.
00:10:35
Jon Harmey
when i start um When I start the season, I want to be chasing premiums you're going to score or average 100 points or more. How many do you reckon, Holmesy, there was last season? So what it was there, about 44 on the list.
00:10:50
Jon Harmey
How many players in the whole competition do you think averaged 100 more?
00:10:55
Holmesy
I did have this number actually in my spreadsheet somewhere. It's not as many as you think ah for 25. twenty five
00:11:02
Jon Harmey
25 it is. So there you go. You must have looked it up We didn't even plan that. So it's 25 that averaged over 100 or 100. So if you think about that, back in the day, you probably would have said it might be a couple of rucks, but mostly they are all midfielders.
00:11:20
Jon Harmey
And that's who's going to make the most points for us. That's the way we're going to gear our teams. But that wasn't the case um last season. So last season, if I have a look at it,
00:11:32
Jon Harmey
We had, of the 25, there was one forward, Bailey Smith. All right, fair enough. He didn't even really play in the forward line anyway, so you can't really count that too much. However, the spread amongst the rest are six rucks, 10 midfielders, and eight defenders.
00:11:52
Jon Harmey
So from that... I look at it and go, I feel as though there's going to be less centre-bounce attendances or less ball-ups during the course of the game in that upcoming season. So there is potential that the rucks come back a bit. There's even potential that the midfielders come back a bit.
00:12:11
Jon Harmey
But those defenders, the quality defenders that are playing off that half-back flank are I think are going to be quite valuable for us this coming season. So I'll give you some examples from the last last um season. So we had Zorko, Sinclair, Lockie Ash, Rosie, Whitfield, Sheezal, and Sire, and one other that I've written down I can't read properly. But anyway...
00:12:38
Jon Harmey
My point is, it's not just the mid you've got to focus on. I think that there is opportunity there that we're going to have some really important defender options for us. I just picked out one as an example of what I'm saying here, and that's Nassiah.
00:12:49
Holmesy
Yeah. Yeah.
00:12:53
Jon Harmey
So picked out where he had 40% CBAs or more for the season. um This is a guy that, what's the average for the season? 111.
00:13:06
Jon Harmey
When he was in the midfield there, I think it was nine games, and he averaged 108. So it's not a lay down, it's not a given that if he's going to be in the midfield, he's going to be better than he was on the back flank from a scoring potential.
00:13:23
Jon Harmey
So I guess that's my point.
00:13:24
Holmesy
Yep.
00:13:25
Jon Harmey
We can't be too, you know, focused on those inside mids this season because I don't feel as though that's what's going to win us the comp.
00:13:35
Holmesy
Yep, and I love that, Harmi, in terms of like gone are the days where youve you have Tom Mitchell average 125, Rory Laird 120, Jack Steele 120, Tuk Miller 120, even multiple midfielders averaging between that sort of 112 to 115 sort of range. You look this year and when you take out all the all the positions from last year, you've got erol as the sorry ah yeah Errol as the m eight who averaged And then you've got McCluggage, Rowe, Brayshaw, Holmes, all around that sort of 102 to 100 mark, which which is insane to think about it, right? So I suppose my question, I'll throw it to you, Jordy.
00:14:12
Holmesy
Typically, when we're building our starting squads, if you were trying to pick a midfielder priced in the 70s or 80s, you'd typically be asking for them to go above 100, right? To be value in your starting squad. But if our top eight mids are only averaging that 102 and we theorize that that could even come back a little bit with the reduced stoppages, do we need to lower our expectations of the the the perceived value of of the players in our starting squad as mid-only players?
00:14:39
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah, I mean, as soon as you said that, my first mind went to Darcy Parrish, who's priced at 72. and I think I had him at about 90, 95. And I would be happy with that if he goes about 90, 95. I think that would be a good pick in my eyes.
00:14:56
JORDAN D'SENA
um I think, you know, Chera was a guy that probably exceeded and went a little bit higher than that. But... um Yeah, I mean, i think I think I want like, I mean, we're talking about Zach Butters before 99 to a, we're projecting maybe a 105.
00:15:08
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:15:10
JORDAN D'SENA
That could be that top eight mid. So they're gone to the days of those 110 players. So I think maybe we should lower it a little bit. And I think a 90 guy from someone in the 70s, like a Parrish, I'd be quite happy with that.
00:15:28
Lew
Just to um add on to that discussion, Harmi, I'd be keen to hear your thoughts on and every single season we we have our starting squads and they change every year, but the nuts and bolts of it are generally the same. We try to have a pretty even spread across the board.
00:15:43
Lew
And all that, and especially so in the midfielders where we have the most selections. But do you think that maybe we need to start looking at um selecting maybe more mid prices and premiums in defence and starting to utilise our midfield to, you know, maybe incubate some rookies or, or ah you know, just...
00:16:03
Lew
We're pointing towards the defense line as being that line that's going to give us the best avenue to points. Do you think we're missing a trick by not actually you know using that as leverage?
00:16:15
Jon Harmey
Well, you just, yeah I mean, you've got to play the cards that you're dealt, don't you? So every year is different. Looking at it for me at the moment, I think that our defence is going to be more like guns and rookies, not necessarily the mid-prices because I think we're going to have some good defender rookie options and, from what I can see here, some good, you know, some high-caliber premiums that, in theory,
00:16:43
Jon Harmey
should hold their average, should hold their price because they shouldn't be going, they shouldn't drop 10 points or there there isn't a sound reason why, say, Connor Rose is going to drop, you know, 10 points off his average. So anyway, it's a bit hard without the app because we're not really building and tinkering with it too much, but I feel like guns and rookies in defence may be the right way to go.
00:17:07
Holmesy
Lou, before we get on to Jordy's point, can I just ask you a question, Lou?
00:17:07
Lew
Yeah, fair enough.
00:17:08
Lew
ah I could honestly say, yeah, go on.
00:17:12
Holmesy
with the With the new rules coming in and as we hypothesize that the stoppages are going to drop and the game's going to quicken up, in terms of our midfielders, do you think it's even more crucial now to target your, let's call it, your more transitional midfielders like your inside-outside guys, like your Errol Gouldens, Nick Dacosses, those players that can still get it on the outside and aren't just reliant on that inside ball?
00:17:22
Jon Harmey
you
00:17:37
Lew
I think so. And that's the sort of trend that we've been seeing over a couple of years now. Although it is interesting that um a couple of those midfielders you mentioned there, Harmi, they're probably what I would describe as first touch players and they're all nudging 100. So I don't think they've dropped off as much. I feel like 100's been a a good little average for that sort of midfielder. And the outside ones have always sort of gone up and above that.
00:18:03
Jon Harmey
Probably accept that for someone like Matt Rao. um Yeah, but I think that... i'll I'll throw some names, right? so Nick Dacos, spreads, gets everywhere. Andy Brayshaw, good good running game, spreads quite well. Gordon plays on the outside a bit, good good pace, good spread. um Yeah, I think that some of the ones we're talking about that averaged over 100 do have a more well-rounded game rather than being just inside.
00:18:35
Lew
Yep. Yep. yep
00:18:37
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that. Jordy, what did you learn outside of don't captain Lockie Whitfield for a 23?
00:18:43
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah, I think my biggest learning was the buys. So obviously the first this is the first year we had those five buys, plus we had the, um obviously the early buys as well. But I think, you know, over the years playing the fantasy, um that round 12 I've always basically targeted a player off of round 12. So someone that's had their buy and then I've got them for the rest of the time, but obviously you're limited sometimes with options.
Navigating the Buy Period Effectively
00:19:12
JORDAN D'SENA
And in for example, this year, I mean, Marcus Bontempelli was that guy. It was like, okay, he's had his buy. He's not quite cheap, but he's well-priced.
00:19:22
JORDAN D'SENA
But I get him for the maximum, well, I get him for the rest of the buyers. So I went straight there. I think a lot of people did. And he wasn't the best until later on the in the year.
00:19:33
JORDAN D'SENA
And I think what I learned is at that point, you can actually still target because we've got five buyers, you can still target guys later and I think someone like Lemon targeted a Caldwell over Bont saved himself 150k and ended up coming better off from that so what I'm going to take out of that is that I'm not going to limit myself this year and if it fits the structure currently it looks like round 12 might be this a bit heavy this year
00:20:04
JORDAN D'SENA
But the guys in round 16 this year is Cats, Saints, Dees and Dogs. So we should have a lot of options. You know you might have a Batty Smith or a Bont if they're a bit cheaper.
00:20:16
JORDAN D'SENA
Or you've got Saints, Nassaya, Wanganimolera. So I'm not going to just close myself off to that. And I think that was a big thing that um I learnt over the buys instead of doing that over previous years.
00:20:31
Holmesy
Yep. Yeah. Don't mind that, Jordy. And yeah, i was I was in awe of what Lemon did with that Caldwell trade. It wasn't ah something I ever considered, but I mean, Caldwell's just an absolute gun. I suppose it's player dependent for sure.
00:20:43
Holmesy
In terms of the buyers, this being the first year that we had five of them, how did you go about sort of structuring up for the buyers? um Yeah. Just talk us through a little little bit of learnings there.
00:20:54
JORDAN D'SENA
Yeah, I think I tried to obviously get as much spread as I could. um But because we had those five buys we had, there was that talk about having that extra trade. So was it 15 trades we had? So i know I chatted Louis about this during the buys ah last year. And I sort of felt like maybe you could go aggressive and and trade a premium.
00:21:16
JORDAN D'SENA
And um it'd be interesting to see and go over whether that worked for some teams or not. um But in my case, you know, I traded Sheasel to Whitfield, which obviously didn't come off.
00:21:29
JORDAN D'SENA
um And that was because Sheasel had a different role. But, you know, I was probably fairly... even across all but then i would pro I looked at trading a premium as well to another one and sideways and because of those extra trades and I'm not sure that that um worked so that's definitely something that I'm going to take into this year.
00:21:49
Holmesy
Lou, can you can you speak to that as well? Because I've got something to add off the back of that. But can you just talk us through your trading strategy as well? as I know you and Jordy were pretty much neck and neck in the rankings at that point.
00:22:01
Holmesy
um So talk us through what you were trying to do.
00:22:03
Lew
Yeah, I think I sort of looked at the 2024 season and what that finish line looked like and tried to replicate it as best I could in 2025, but sort of forgetting that um it was a different season. As we said, we had those extra buys and I ah sort of thought that I would try and get a little bit clever and maybe there's room to get aggressive and a bit of gameplay. Maybe I can get aggressive while the rest of the competition is still ah Messing around on those buyers, giving those um trades in hand.
00:22:34
Lew
Unfortunately, it didn't work. um I still don't mind the theory, kind of. If it paid if it played off, it would have been a pretty decent move, I think, at least in the short term. but um I think that's where we probably confused ourselves a little bit, Geordie.
00:22:48
Holmesy
Thank
00:22:53
Lew
We sit here and we tell people to make sure your team improves and the problem was it it actually did. We had sort of completed our teams by the end of ah that buy-round period mid-season just because of how things unfolded at the beginning with those buy-rounds.
00:23:08
Lew
So, it's a lot of learnings there and I think i think there'll be plenty more this season as we as we tackle these buys and ah Given the pattern at the moment, I think that the buyers are probably going to be something that we're going to be tiptoeing around for a number of years now, especially with Tassie coming in.
00:23:27
Holmesy
Yeah, I mean, that's what I want to kind of touch on as well. Harmi, I'll throw to you in a little bit, but in terms of the buys, what I found this year, because there was five of them and we had an extra trade working throughout,
00:23:44
Holmesy
I found coaches almost tried to outsmart themselves a little bit and go too sideways throughout the buyers, which actually resulted in them coming out of the buyers with a worse team than when they went in.
00:23:55
Holmesy
And I think a lot of that is just like the psychology of AFL fantasy is that coaches want to see their ranking improve every single week. Like that's that's why we play, right?
00:24:06
Holmesy
And you need to see the buyers as a whole rather than week by week. So as an example, as someone that finished really high, I was ranked 236 going into the into the buy rounds.
00:24:18
Holmesy
The first buy round, I jumped to 107. Then regressed. went 134, 169, then jumped up to 119 into 30 after the buys. one sixty nine then jumped up to one nineteen and then into thirty after the buys I think what coaches can do at times is that they see their ranking go backwards and they go, I'm in trouble here. My ranking's going backwards.
00:24:36
Holmesy
I'm now going to sideways trade some of my premiums to other players that have come off their buy. And then from there, they do that a few times just trying to get some extra points throughout the buys and then come the end they have a worse team than when they when they are when they started. A few names last year there was ah a Callum Mills who was cheap throughout the buys. Yes he had a few good games but he put up a lot of 60s.
00:25:01
Holmesy
There was a Sam Doherty, Myles Bergman all of these types of players Now, I'm not saying you guys went a shiesel to one of those guys. You went shiesel to Whitfield. But a lot of coaches were trading out genuine premiums to these quote-unquote undervalued premiums. And then they come out of the buys and they've got three, four, five of them. So, Harmi, what did you think about all of that in terms of how you traded in the buys?
00:25:23
Jon Harmey
ah Well, I didn't have a good season, mate, but I stayed to a pretty tried and true method of you know basically just trying to go two down, one up throughout that buy period to get my upgrades to coming out of it. But sounds like you did a good job of it without sideways trading, which is exactly what you're after.
00:25:44
Holmesy
Yeah, i just think it's super important just to see the buyers as a whole. You're not going to be able to improve every single week because of how your squad's all structured. Everyone has different players on different buyers. You've just got to keep playing the game and trying to improve your squad.
Importance of Cash Generation Early in the Season
00:25:59
Holmesy
I think that's that's the super important thing.
00:26:02
Holmesy
Don't you agree, Lou?
00:26:03
Lew
Yeah, absolutely. And I ah think in my case, ironically, round 12 was where I was weakest. And so in the weeks prior, I was sort of preparing to to adjust that. And it got to the point where I thought, oh, well, I can put the foot on the neck in round 12 because I think I'm going to excel past other coaches here who haven't addressed it as well. And then I ended up scoring quite poorly in round 12 just because i think that might have been one of the rounds where none of our players sort of went much above 90 and then round 16 was my best week despite sort of um you know trading out of that so it's swings and roundabouts but I think there's yeah there's a lot of room for strategy in the buyers and
00:26:48
Lew
I think we're only scratching the surface in terms of what can be done, but the the tried and true method of just improving your side is is one that's very difficult to poke holes in.
00:27:00
Holmesy
Yeah, and don't get me wrong, I definitely think there's times to get aggressive and sideways trade through the buys. I mean, as you said, we completed our sides very early last year in terms of being up there in the rankings.
00:27:12
Holmesy
But you can only do that if you've had that cash gen all sorted from the start of the year. Otherwise, you find yourself not being able to get up to the player that you want to. You end up taking a haircut because you don't have the funds.
00:27:25
Holmesy
And then that's where you get into trouble with all of these sort of mid-priced options as you come out of the buy. That was my biggest learning of 2025 is that cash gen at the start of the year is the most crucial element in the game.
00:27:39
Holmesy
it's It's the number one. Yes, at the end of the day, the coach that scores the most points at the end of the year is going to be the winner. but you're not going to get into an opportunity to be that coach if you don't focus on the cash gen later on. You need to have the money to do the upgrades and it's it's the most most crucial thing. So in that starting squad, nailing as many of the rookies as you can, nailing as many of the mid-priced options and the underpriced premiums that are going to seriously shoot up in value.
00:28:08
Holmesy
And then those early trades throughout the year, I'm talking rounds one, two, three and four, It has to be a very special premium for you to waste a trade going across to a premium. Your sole focus is making sure you're getting off any dead rookies that aren't going to be aren't going to be scoring enough to really shoot up and those deadweight mid-prices. So last year, think your Harry Perryman, your Riley Sanders. I started a James Peatling.
00:28:37
Holmesy
Ollie Hollands is a good example. Any of these players that are dead weight and they're not making you money, they just have to go. That's your number one priority. And as long as you've got your cash gen in place, it doesn't matter where your ranking is to start.
00:28:50
Holmesy
You'll be able to make the moves you want to do later on and climb up the rankings, Lou. But if you don't sort that out, Yes, you might be competitive for four, five, six, seven, eight weeks, maybe even up to the mid-season buyers.
00:29:02
Holmesy
But then you'll find that despite you doing some good trades, coaches will jump ahead of you because of where their squads are at.
00:29:09
Lew
Yeah, agreed 100%. They're your number one priority. and Because of that, they're also your number one opportunity. I think that a failed mid-pricer, as long as you identify that at the beginning of the season, can sometimes be a good stepping stone to to greatness, really. I think you can sort of identify um maybe post-round one, maybe what you missed or or something that you you should have... um you know clued onto a little bit earlier and you can use that extra extra cash on that mid-pricer or you can get creative with that failed rookie and and sort of set yourself up from there with a little bit of data to use.
00:29:47
Holmesy
Yeah. Really like that. And um in all the Holmes Files episodes that'll be happening over on the Marrera's Magic Season Guide, I'll be really deep diving with some amazing fantasy coaches of the the nuts and bolts of just how important cash gen is to start the year. There's already an episode there waiting with DT Lemon for when the the season guide opens and and he's the best at it in the game and and he puts it so beautifully. So that it is the number one thing. If you want to compete these days, cash gen and value is is the only way that you can do it.
00:30:18
Holmesy
Alright lads, what we're going to do to finish now is we're just going to go through some of the listener questions in terms of what they're looking to learn from in yeah from last year and how they can better themselves in 2026.
00:30:30
Holmesy
So Lou, I'll go to you for the first one. This from this one's from Rowan. What was a statistic or piece of data that you found in 2025 that will influence how you analyse players in 2026?
00:30:42
Lew
Yeah, um thanks, Rowan. i was thinking about i was thinking about this one and there's so much data and stats that are posted now every single year that impress me and are valuable to use. But I think the biggest one for me that I could sort of quite easily access myself just on the AFL app was actually the the quarter by quarter breakdown of scoring. So that really helped me sort of identify firstly how a player is, you know, finding the consistency in their scoring, but also identifying role changes in game or what goes on when an injury happens to a key player and sort of, I guess, sort of trying to to read the tea leaves a little bit and what I can do.
00:31:25
Lew
um to find advantage out of that. you know Maybe a midfielder goes down, Joe Blow, who hasn't really fired a shot all season, goes in for the last quarter, scores 50 fantasy points, and he's lining up in the midfield the following week nice and cheap. you know Those are the sorts of things where you can identify them, and that app certainly helped me do. i think you can find a ah really nice sort of play
00:31:51
Jon Harmey
Louis, I thought you told me that the stat you were most interested in was the total points scored by the Port Adelaide midfield because you said that Bergman, um Horn Francis, Butters, Drew and Wines were all going to average over 100 and then Will Brodie was going to be up there as well.
00:32:11
Lew
Well, there's still time. You know, Josh Carr's new game plan could ah could impress, could ah yeah could maybe just start the new track for the how the AFL wants to play footy from now on.
00:32:22
Lew
but
00:32:22
Jon Harmey
Okay.
00:32:24
Lew
No, it certainly won't be the case.
00:32:28
Holmesy
Beautiful, all right. Harmi, this one's from Taser. And it kind of ties into your learnings as well, so it's a ah good one here. With changes to the rules expected to lower stoppages, who's your early prediction as a ruck who could go up in or keep cap there cap their average slash value?
00:32:47
Jon Harmey
I can think of a few um that are going to be in this boat. So i think Nick Bryan at the Bombers will have a yeah ah very good season when he comes in as the Bombers' number one ruck.
00:33:00
Jon Harmey
I think Cooper Duff-Titler for West Coast will play and he's going to, what's he priced at, 26 or 27 or something. So he will average more than that.
00:33:14
Jon Harmey
um I think that Kieran Briggs will be... he He'd be very hard-pressed to score less than what he's priced at currently. So there's a few few I can think of at the moment, mate. I think that... I just think that your Gorn, Grundy types, is although they may go well, I just feel that they have to come back a bit with the changes to the rules.
00:33:44
Holmesy
Talk us through, why why do you think, Harmi, it's not as simple as just lower stoppages, less points, right? um I'll give an example and and shout out to Vams here because he was the sort of pioneer here in looking at the data, but Rowan Marshall, so in 2024, when he averaged 117, St Kilda averaged 88 stoppages per game and he averaged that 117, as i said.
00:34:10
Holmesy
Then in 2025, they actually increased their stoppages from 88 a game to 103 per game.
00:34:15
Jon Harmey
Thank
00:34:16
Holmesy
So you would assume increased stoppages means increased points for Ruckman. But his average actually dropped from 117 down to 104. Now, admittedly, there was the injury in the preseason and he was slow to get going.
00:34:29
Holmesy
But they what Vams found was because Marshall was actually so dominant in transition and he doesn't score his points as much from stoppages, stoppage points stayed consistent, but his average dropped because there was less transitional points available. So it's not just a case of the stoppages are going to be reduced, every Ruckman's going to come back. What are the type of Ruckman that do you think that could potentially increase because there's now more transitional points available?
00:34:56
Jon Harmey
I can't really think of any, to be fair, mate. ah I think that in what you have just said there, it's you're probably missing one aspect, which is um that the umpires aren't going to wait for the ruckman to get into the position to throw the ball up.
00:35:11
Jon Harmey
So when they're running from 30 metres away with their hand up, being the nominated person, and the umpire's got to wait for them to throw it up, it's not going to happen this year. I think you're just going to get...
00:35:23
Jon Harmey
more more occasions where your midfielders are going to just be that jumper and um and take the ruck tap instead.
00:35:33
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah the I mean, the the transitional ruckman that come to mind for me, obviously you've got Darcy Cameron who gets a lot of marks around the ground, Tim English that plays as that sort of fourth midfielder around the ground.
00:35:44
Holmesy
Max Gorn's always been a transitional beast with the the points that he can get, not only at stoppage but um marking around the ground. But yeah, I think you are right, Harmi, in terms of the extra stoppages not getting there and then they just throw it up. So you get the the Josh Dunkley types that just take the ruck contest um Yeah, it it is fascinating.
00:36:04
Holmesy
Geordie loves Grundy, Lou, so you can chat about Grundy just for a second. um Do you think he can, i mean, he if you look at his back half numbers, clearly there's, ah just based on that alone, there's value.
00:36:16
Holmesy
He's been the ruck pig before. Do you think he can continue it?
00:36:20
Lew
Yeah, I don't see why he can't continue that form. It felt like he rediscovered what he was able to do at the Pies a couple of years ago. looked like he had much more confidence than what I'd seen in some time. You do forget that he's only just turned 30. So he's ah he's a bit younger than probably what I thought as well. I thought he was you know pushing 32, 33. Yeah.
00:36:42
Lew
I think he's still got lots of good footy in him. And we've seen that a lot of the ah the big rucks, certainly the ones that score well, have pushed that 100 average sort of into their mid-30s at times. So, yeah, I ah think he's a decent one.
00:36:57
Jon Harmey
Geordie, you are not starting Brodie Grundy at R1 this season, surely.
00:37:04
Holmesy
Harmy mate, what are you doing? ah For those listeners at home going a bit behind the curtains here, Jordy's got a bit of an error with his microphone and we said, do not throw to Jordy under any circumstances. And John Harmy, the superstar that he is,
00:37:20
Holmesy
Just try throws to Geordie. Yeah, Geordie is very big on Brodie Grundy, Harmy.
00:37:23
Lew
Give us some sign language.
00:37:25
Holmesy
And we do know that players you lock in November, December and January, you have to pick. So Geordie will start him. I suppose the only reason you yeah you don't start him is because of the buy, right? Like if you think his value, you think his value and he can continue.
00:37:42
Holmesy
It's hard to argue against that, Lou, but the early buy is is what's really tricky with ah with a Brodie Grundy.
00:37:48
Lew
Yeah, that's that's going to be the main thing, I think. And we're going to be unpacking the ruck strategy probably for months. I reckon it's right up in the air. And these buy rounds have just made what's usually a headache of a line even more of a headache. But hey, Jordy, if you're going to start Grundy this season, just give us a thumbs up or a thumbs down, mate.
00:38:10
Lew
All right, that's a thumbs up for the listeners.
00:38:11
Holmesy
Thumbs up. There it is. that's how it's That's how it's done. Harmi? All right, Louis, I'll go to you for this next one, but I'll give you some i'll give you some data to help back back this up. So this one's from Nathan Russell. Is being over 30 increasingly less of a concern for player output? There seems to be many examples of players still going strong, across all lines despite being over 30. So I'll give you some names here as players over 30 who still averaged over 100 this year. So Dane Zorko with his 101.5 average. You've got Max Gorn at 113.
00:38:47
Holmesy
ah We have, who else do we have here? i mean, Jack Sinclair was at 101. Grundy, 107. hundred and one brodie grundy one oh seven lockie Whitfield, And then you're really looking at a Darcy Cameron 102, Zach Merritt as a midfielder. He's approaching 30 but not quite. And then you're really looking at Libba as a bit of an outlier with his 99.5 average. So the theme I'm seeing is that defenders, it's okay. Maybe obviously it's a little bit less strenuous on the body. Think Dane Zorka. He can kind of...
00:39:19
Holmesy
um He can manipulate the game a little bit more to to stay away from contests and things like that. Whitfield, Sinclair, the same. There's not really many midfielders aged 30 and above that are putting up the real premium numbers. So is that something you look at in your starting squad in terms of players' ages and and not going there over 30?
00:39:39
Jon Harmey
Yes, it is something I look at. Yes, I am more reluctant to go there if they're over 30. It probably depends on the role that the player has in their team and the team that they are playing for. So,
00:39:54
Jon Harmey
Yeah, you've reeled off a few nice examples there. I guess as a general comment, rucks typically take longer to make it to AFL standard. So I'm not surprised at some of the ones you talked about there that are rucks.
00:40:12
Jon Harmey
um zach merit you mentioned well he was actually down quite a bit on his best season so i don't know if you claim that as a success adam treloar injury um prone um elliot yo i think there's probably as many that have gone backwards as there are that have gone up um I think it certainly becomes harder once you're over 30.
00:40:33
Lew
Yes.
00:40:36
Jon Harmey
So I think that it's something you do need to consider when in your starting squad.
00:40:43
Holmesy
Harmi, Jack Steel turned 30 in December. Is it going to turn you off?
00:40:49
Jon Harmey
coming off a season where his role was inconsistent and he was carrying injury. So I think that there are reasons that hopefully are behind him that held him back for his current price.
00:41:06
Holmesy
Louis, this one's from Sandra. When's the best time to trade a Rook who's still best 23? So people last year moved on a Zach Reed, Levi Ashcroft, even a McCarthy later on in the season a bit early and then regretted it um as they then went through a patch where they were scoring as well as Primo. So what circumstances should we look for?
00:41:25
Holmesy
And she also mentions that the 50% time on ground rule might make them even more important.
00:41:31
Lew
Yeah, well, I mean, scoring is probably the simple answer here, right? I know a lot of coaches did trade out of Zach Reed, Ashcroft and McCarthy a little bit early, but ah not to rub salt into the wounds. ah ah They had a down game or two and bounced right back up as rookies do. So it's it's more of a where your cash sort of lies and how you want to spend it. But I ah wouldn't beat myself up over trading a rookie early if it meant getting the premium that I wanted ASAP. I know a lot of people went Zach Reed to like a Josh Dunkley, for example, who came home really strong.
00:42:09
Lew
But yeah, I think the best way to read the rookies is you actually need to watch the game and how they get involved and whether or not the team game style sort of allows them to be a part of that. I think sometimes you watch a rookie come in and you can tell quite quickly that it's a bit of a training run. It's, you know, you're going to have homework in the twos the next week or, you know, it's a...
00:42:30
Lew
It's a block of footy and then you need to go work on some things. So yeah it's it's just about watching the footy and and seeing how those rookies are actually performing. And if that's translating into fantasy points, I think you can kick that can down the road um as long as you can. I mean, if they're going at a 70 average, they're not going to be priced at 70 for some time. You can... even sort of wear a bit of a loss. And I know we saw a couple of good coaches lose 20, 30, 50K sometimes on these players, but it still meant that on the other end, they were getting up to who they wanted to.
00:43:05
Jon Harmey
i think And I think that's the main point, Lou. The rookies are there to make the cash for you to be able to get to the play you really want. I think I remember in one of the successful seasons that I had, I ah traded Willem Drew in the forward line to Josh Dunkley in the forward line. So fair upgrade there. And that's the sort of move you're looking to do.
00:43:26
Jon Harmey
ah think that with the... almost all of the rookies that you have, they're there to make money for you. So there is a the way that the pricing structure works. There's a point in time when they start to really slow and stall their price increase and then they tip over the curve and they start to lose money. So that's the opportune time to to trade them out. And if they if they fluke one and and they hit a ceiling score and their price starts to come up again, oh well, You know, they've done their their um they've made the money for you anyway.
00:44:03
Lew
And generally outside of the end of the season, even our trade-in targets, we're looking for value there. We want to be able to sell ourselves a narrative that we're getting them for a decent price. And I think that can fall by the wayside sometimes if you're thinking about the 50K you could have made on, for example, Zach Reed, but you're forgetting the 100K you made on Josh Dunkley because you pulled that lever a little bit earlier than other coaches. And of course, the points come with that too.
00:44:30
Holmesy
Yeah, no, you guys nailed it. The one thing I will say is that doing a bit of research, I'm pretty sure it takes roughly about eight weeks or so for for a player or a rookie to to reach their maximum price, all things equal, if they're if they're going ah at their average.
00:44:47
Holmesy
So there's nothing wrong with trading that rookie out once they hit week five, week six, week seven, because they've already made majority of the cash that they're going to make. Yes, you might get burnt every now and again. Levi Ashcroft,
00:44:59
Holmesy
i'm not I'm not even saying that's a bad trade. like he He came out and had a 1.15 on the wing in a tough game. like That just happened. Zach Reid, um you know you couldn't have foreseen that Essendon were going to get all of those injuries and he was forced into just being that player that everything went through when when Ridley went down and and whatnot. Martin had to move move forward and into the midfield. So,
00:45:20
Holmesy
Yeah, it's it's one of those things. Rookies are there to make cash. Selby summed it up in his winning seasons. He had Tim Kelly, which was the absolute must-have rookie. He traded him early to a Zach Merritt. Yes, Tim Kelly continued to make a little bit more cash in and average that 75 to 80.
00:45:35
Holmesy
But you get Zach Merritt at a discount who goes 110, 115, and it it doesn't it doesn't matter.
00:45:38
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:45:40
Holmesy
So... yeah With your rookies, you're trying to milk them for as much cash as you can. Knowing that once they hit week five, week six, week seven, rookies tend to tire anyway. they've made their They've made their cash and you get on to the next guy who's going to shoot up quicker than them. so yeah great Great question there, Sandra, and something we'll definitely dive into more during the season.
00:46:00
Holmesy
Louis, this one's from Bontsville Wizard, good friend of the show. And we've kind of already answered this one, but should we be lowering our expectations on midfielder scoring with the changing in game style over the last few years, even more so now with the new ruck rule and less stoppages? So we did talk about it, but just tie up in a nice little bow for him.
00:46:18
Lew
um Read the trends. I think, yeah, we just need to work with what we've been given and it seems to be trending downwards slightly. So, yeah, I'd temper expectations, but if you go back through the history of fantasy, there's blocks of years where the game style shifts and then it shifts another way. So, this is the period we're in. It's a very, I guess it's a transitional period quite literally, um but I would be expecting to yeah lower those expectations slightly.
00:46:48
Lew
Certainly on the midfielders as Harmi put really well before.
00:46:52
Holmesy
Harmi, this one's from Andrew. If you own a primo in keeper draft, are you more or less likely to pick them in classics? Are you someone to put all your eggs in one basket knowing that if if they fail, you're you're in a bit of trouble in both formats? How do you go about that?
00:47:08
Jon Harmey
If you believe in somebody to draft them really highly, you've got to get right in behind them and get them in classic, I reckon. but I actually do do stuff like that.
00:47:18
Holmesy
Yeah, no, I do the same. Last year I started Dawson at M1 in Classic and and took him in all of my draft leagues thinking that he was going to be the M1. So, yeah, I think you've got to back yourself in there. We're talking with Jordy Pre-Pot about when you're playing the different formats and so in in terms of fantasy and super coach and sometimes you have to pick players that go against what you're trying to do in different formats and that can make things tricky. But I think when you're talking AFL fantasy and draft, I think, yeah, you put your eggs in the basket and just hope for a for a really good season. Lou, this one's from Tyler Finlay.
00:47:52
Holmesy
I'd love some advice on how not to be stubborn and jump on breakout players before they are out of reach. so I suppose a good example I can give of this one is myself. When I traded in Nassire, it would have been round 13, I think it was. He was probably priced at 108, 110 at this point. And a lot of that goes against paying like top, top price for someone. But then He's in this little breakout period and he actually goes at 117, 118, whatever it is for the rest of the year to finish strongly. So how do you have that sort of fantasy IQ of of knowing when you're overpaying for someone but knowing when you still need to get on someone because the run can continue?
00:48:32
Lew
Well, you probably mentioned it there, Holmesy. It's a mix of looking at the fixture. It's about watching what that role has been over the last couple of weeks and and what that scoring has looked like and why they can replicate it. um Advice on how not to be stubborn is pretty difficult to give. I think you just need to be a little bit more open to taking risks and full well knowing that sometimes when you take the right risk, it can it can catapult you into hat territory.
00:49:02
Holmesy
Harmi, this one here comes in from ah Jordan Desenna, good friend of the show. Tim Kelly priced 63.3. Are you willing to start him knowing that he has f one potential?
00:49:16
Jon Harmey
I think I might do a solo podcast on Tim Kelly because I've been doing a real deep dive into him and I am super keen. Holmesy, you know this.
00:49:26
Holmesy
Yep, you can do that. You can do that solo podcast all you want. Or why don't you join? You can join with Lou and you guys can talk about how you're picking all of Tim Kelly, Harley Reid and Elliot Yeo in your starting squads despite the fact the Eagles scored an average of 1350 points this 63. 63.
00:49:42
Lew
That's how many tackles Elliott Yeo will get in the midfield, I reckon.
00:49:42
Jon Harmey
Yeah. Yeah.
00:49:46
Lew
No, what's Elliott Yeo priced at? That's a name I haven't heard in a minute.
00:49:50
Jon Harmey
60-something.
00:49:50
Holmesy
sixty three
00:49:51
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:49:52
Holmesy
sixty three
00:49:53
Jon Harmey
Midfield only though.
00:49:53
Lew
ah ah as um As a midfielder?
00:49:54
Jon Harmey
Yeah, mid only though.
00:49:55
Lew
Oh, yeah, okay, yeah.
00:49:56
Holmesy
perfect Perfect player to play that sort of 60% time on ground CBA midfielder though, right? With the 23 on the bench.
00:50:03
Lew
Yeah, look, i wouldn't be surprised if he if he put up sort of high 80s, Elliot Yeo. It's ah a bit of a point of difference there, I suppose, if you're brave enough. But you're watching a lot to go right and the Eagles to turn a big corner.
00:50:17
Holmesy
Yeah. I look, I look at the name Elliot Yeo and think, yeah, there's value there. And then I remember that I played footy with him back in the day and, I'm getting old. So hey who knows? But boys, that will that will wrap us up there, our little learnings from 2025 and what we can bring for 2026. So podcast moving forward, as we said, Lou, super excited about planning now for 2026 and getting it all rolling so that we can we can start the year off off strong. So just give the listeners a little closing thoughts on what they should be doing at this time of year in terms of building so that you know when the app opens and we move into the practice matches, they're ready to go with their squads.
00:50:57
Lew
Oh, get on the socials and and start refreshing. I've seen lots of news come down the pipeline the last week or so. And given it's Monday the 12th, I saw a lot more again as everybody heads back to work. So, just keep an eye on what the injuries are and who's sort of training in what role. And that'll give you a nice little opportunity to, to plug in a team when the game opens, hopefully soon. And then we can start getting into the nitty gritty of it and discussing ah the ins and outs of our own fantasy teams. I can't wait.
00:51:31
Jon Harmey
What they should really be doing, Lou, is reading the Bigfooty Forum review training reports from the West Coast midfielder, ah by the sounds of things, because you've got Yo, Kelly, Reid, Dev Robinson, um you've got Finn McRae, you've got Tom McCarthy. It's going to be the best midfield in the comp, isn't it
00:51:54
Lew
is this ah Is this something that you're reading now, John? or
00:51:57
Jon Harmey
it? No.
00:52:00
Holmesy
yeah Far out, Harmy. I thought you were going to say something productive there, like making sure you get selby Selby's Morera's Magic Guide so that your your pre-season research is all up to all upto date.
00:52:07
Jon Harmey
You could do that.
00:52:10
Holmesy
That would have been a flawless little segue, Lou.
00:52:12
Lew
No, I like it This is very on-brand sort of dossies, is make the opponents worse as as you sort of do the same thing. Yeah.
00:52:21
Holmesy
Yeah, actually, that's that's very true. Yep, so everyone, make sure you are following us on X at PodPod AFL. I'm at Holmes is Heroes.
00:52:32
Holmesy
The preseason content will be continuing. I've got a special little bonus podcast that will be coming out in the next week or so, so make sure um you're subscribed so that you can have a listen to that. And as I said before, Selby's Marrera's Magic Guide, who is our major sponsor this year, will be dropping...
00:52:49
Holmesy
sometime soon. Hopefully the app will be up and going as well so that we can all dive into the research. But for everyone else, have a good week and we'll be back on Monday with the first of our positional previews.
00:53:00
Lew
Bye. bye