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Bonus Episode! - Market Share Analysis and AFL Fantasy Statistics with Rowan #PODPOD
2.2k Plays7 days ago
Keen to learn more about AFL Fantasy and put some context around why particular players score the way they do? This podcast is for you! Market share in an AFL Fantasy context is untapped research that will help you better link a players’ scoring to their teams overall points. This was crucial in helping Holmesy finish 2nd in 2025 and he is sharing the info with you!
In this episode, Holmesy is joined by Rowan from The AFL Fantasy Market Place. They start by discussing market share, why it is important and how it can help add context to a players’ scoring. They then deep dive on all the key stats of each team to help you find an edge for your starting squads in 2026. If you enjoy Fantasy Footy and love your content, this one is a ripper! For more in-depth research you can follow Rowan on X @RowanTAFM
The PODPOD is brought to you by Moreira’s Magic in 2026. All Holmes Files episodes will be available exclusively as a part of the 2026 Season Guide. As well as the podcasts, the Season Guide will also include:
- Player profiles and comments for all players in the AFL
- Best 22’s from the MM team
- Draft rankings
- DVP
- Strength of schedule
- Market Share
- Podcasts with Selby and Xavier Ellis
- Much much more!
Head over to moreirasmagic.com.au/membership to pre-order now - the guide will be released early January and updated right up until the start of round 1
Follow us on X:
The PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Lewy: @LewyAF
Harmey: @jonharmey
Sam: @grillis03
Jordy: @jordandsena
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Transcript
Introduction with Holmesy and Guest Rowan
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod brought to you by Marrera's Magic. I'm your host Holmesy, three-time top 10 finisher and twice runner-up in AFL Fantasy Classic. Welcome to a special bonus episode from the Pod Pod. I've decided to get a man on who is well known in the Twitter space now in in ah deep diving in some untapped AFL Fantasy research research that I think has massive potential.
00:00:43
Holmesy
We're looking at market share and all these little stats that indicate give a a little bit more context around why particular players score well in AFL fantasy. I'm sure you've seen him around and he has recently been on the 50 most relevant over at the coaches panel. But today I'm talking to Rowan. Welcome to the show.
00:01:01
RowanTAFM
Holmesy, thank you so much for having me on, mate. It's an absolute pleasure to be on with you. And look, to be honest, feeling a bit nervous, mate. Like I'm i'm just feeling, I'm a nobody in this space, really, when i when I'm talking to you. Look, the results aren't quite there, but I'm working on it. And hopefully the stuff that I'm finding out and the research I'm doing is
Market Share: A New Lens for AFL Fantasy
00:01:22
RowanTAFM
helpful. And yeah, we can just get better every every year we do this.
00:01:26
Holmesy
Yeah, no, absolutely. And I i started speaking to you, it was about a year ago when we were kind of just just starting to get into this market share research. And look, I'm i'm fascinated by anything that can help myself and the community get better at this game that we all love playing, I think is going to be a really good thing. And just dipping my toes in it last year, um it definitely paid dividends in in steering myself away from some picks that were were pretty popular and that i'm I'm excited to sort of deep dive into it. So why don't you just sort of introduce yourself and and let the listeners know a little bit about yourself and the the type of research that you've been are getting into.
00:02:04
RowanTAFM
Yeah, no worries. So, um yeah, I've been playing Fantasy Dream Team since I was in high school. um For context, I'm 32 now, so it's been a while, ah but have loved this game for a really, really long time. Probably didn't understand it really, though, as a teenager or as an early 20s. One of the things that I i jumped into probably about...
00:02:28
RowanTAFM
10 years ago was I had workmates that got me into NFL fantasy. And so NFL fantasy was something that I jumped into with them and actually came to really love and and love the game of NFL. And me and one of my mates started a league podcast, as many people out there have probably done just for their mates. That expanded a little bit. It got into like really thinking and deep diving into the analysis around NFL. And one of the things about NFL is that you actually think team first before individuals. And yes, you've got these amazing players in the NFL, but you've got to think about what's the game style, what's the structure of the team, how do they operate as an as an offense player.
00:03:06
RowanTAFM
And from there, that got me thinking team first over individual. And I think when I came back to playing AFL fantasy a bit more seriously, was really interesting as I noticed the nuance in how we talked about the players, how do we, how we talked about our teams and it felt really individual first.
00:03:25
RowanTAFM
And I was like, Oh, this is actually quite different to how I've actually started to think about fantasy sports in general. And so I've started to then think about, okay, what does it look like to put these numbers, these AFL fantasy scores and averages, what happens if I put them in the context of a team?
00:03:42
RowanTAFM
What are the teams actually scoring as a whole?
Deep Dive: Market Share Contextualization
00:03:45
RowanTAFM
And what's the piece of the pie that each um individual player actually owns? And, And you can think about that in terms of a game-by-game basis, but then over the season as well, the season average and what that looks like. And so really what I've just been doing is kind of turning them into percentages because that helps kind of normalize that across every team then. And you're getting a sense of, well, how much of the team's production does one player have? And so that's where market share share came from.
00:04:13
RowanTAFM
And so trying to think differently in that space to kind of go, well, what's what's a player actually doing? And one of the things I say is that you know, not every 100 is equal. You know, some players have worked really hard for their 100. Sometimes you've got players going at, you know scoring 100, but they've got like 10% of their team's score for that for that week. And sometimes you've got players going at 100 at like 6% because of how many possessions and how much...
00:04:45
RowanTAFM
yeah, how many points the team scored as a whole. And so it actually wasn't as hard for that player to score 100 because everyone was doing it. There was just dominance on on that team. And so, yeah came up with the A4Fantasy marketplace just as a kind of a way to kind of start putting this out there and see what people thought. And yeah, it's been a really positive experience since then.
00:05:07
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, awesome, mate. And we'll get into a little bit more of the the nerdy math stats that you've been looking at a little bit later with the AFL Fantasy marketplace. But the market share i idea, personally, I think it's it's a game changer for AFL Fantasy. We're not utilizing it as well as we can be just at the moment because it is so fresh. And I know it's it's a much, much bigger over in the um the daily fantasy space.
00:05:30
Holmesy
But... Just give a bit of context about exactly, I mean, you just did, but why is market share so valuable when we're analyzing what players are scoring in AFL fantasy?
Player Performance: Skill vs. Role?
00:05:41
RowanTAFM
Yeah, so it's it's it's context. It's all context. It's contextualising individual fantasy points in regards to the team. And I think it really helps... take that macro view, um we get to kind of step back and have a look at, okay, what does what does this number actually mean in the context of of their team and how their team is scoring? And I think another question I always run into as well, I think this is where market share is helpful. Sometimes we ask the question of, does a player earn points based on their skill or does a player get given points based on their role and what the team is giving them? And so thinking in terms of market share and the percentage of a team's points that a player has or earns, I think that can help us kind of balance that question. And and the reality is that there is always just a tension of the two. Yes, there's a player who is super, super skillful.
00:06:33
RowanTAFM
And in the same regard, they've also been given a role that unlocks that ability as well. And their role in the team, I think, can be seen better at times when we use market share to think that through. So um i think that's why it's important. It's giving you a better context rather than just like, oh, this guy's a 95 average player. Well, actually...
00:06:54
RowanTAFM
things change in terms of the team. You know, when the team starts scoring less, are they going to still be a 95 averaging player? Well, probably not because if the team's averaging less, then you're seeing less, probably less change. You're seeing less marks. You're seeing less loose ball gets. You're seeing maybe more, more turnovers than you'd like as a team. And so everyone, you know,
00:07:18
RowanTAFM
everyone loses when that's the case in in the team. And so how hard a player has to work then to maintain the number average. Yeah, and that that that shifts. And so I think market share helps us see that a little bit better.
00:07:33
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, 100%.
Team Dynamics and Player Averages
00:07:34
Holmesy
And I suppose on some level as fantasy coaches, we've already been doing this, right? Like if we think back to the the Richmond dynasty, we we knew that outside of a Dustin Martin, maybe a Batcha Hooli, we knew that the Richmond game style just wasn't conducive to fantasy scoring. Now, we weren't putting it on that big macro level, but we just knew. We were looking at averages and we knew that We we didn't really want to target players from those teams. Same for for Gold Coast in the early years. They just they just weren't teams that were were good at scoring fantasy points. But I suppose the market share really just allows us to put a percentage to it.
00:08:09
Holmesy
And then from there, it actually just helps us understand, well, what is normal for a particular team and what's out of the normal and is it going to be sustainable?
00:08:19
RowanTAFM
Yeah, absolutely. And so i think having some idea, like when talking percentages, i think some people with their eyes glaze over because they're not actually sure what that means. um But to let's give some context, I guess. You've got in the last five years, so post-COVID, the Average AFL fantasy team is scoring about 1,525 points per game. And it's actually getting lower. Last year, we saw the lowest it's been in a long, long time with 1,506. So um i think that's potentially skewed a bit because of Richmond and West Coast and how bad they were. Yeah.
00:08:56
RowanTAFM
West coast is scoring less than 1400 points, which is also just ridiculous. It's like Melbourne back in their dire days kind of type levels and even worse than what gold coast were when they started. So like there's some really bad teams out there from fantasy scoring.
00:09:10
RowanTAFM
Um, but there's this number I usually go by 6.5% 6.5 6.6 around there because that is what you need to score 100 points based on league average so if we kind of think of that as like a that's a top end that's a top end player 6.5% that's a really nice percentage um for like a league average so I'm Hopefully that's helpful to kind of have as like a benchmark number 6.5%. And then we can kind of look at teams and go, well, these teams might have a lot more players over 6.5%, but why aren't they scoring as much? Well, we're connecting that then to the team points and seeing that that's below league average.
00:09:49
RowanTAFM
And yeah, now you can read things like regression and and where we expect and and then you bring in narratives and and roles and things like that. And that's when the good fantasy coaches are able to kind of go, okay, is it possible?
Team Analysis: Adelaide and Brisbane
00:10:01
RowanTAFM
Is it possible for them to improve in this space?
00:10:04
RowanTAFM
Yes or no? And then you can think about that a little bit deeper.
00:10:07
Holmesy
Yeah, 100%. And we're going to go team by team in a little bit and and really get into the nitty gritty. But I mean, let's just put an example to it. So Andrew Brayshaw from Frio. We saw Frio have ah a drop off in game points, total game points this year. They went away from, you know, being that slow, controlled team coming out of the back line, which meant a lot of ah lot of chains, a lot of kicks, a lot of marks.
00:10:28
Holmesy
um They went more into a defend and then run and gun, more handball out in the open. Andrew Brayshaw this year dropped from a 108 average or even 110, I don't have it off the top my head, down to 101 average.
00:10:42
Holmesy
We look at that and as normal fantasy coaches, we think, okay, there's upside there. We've seen him average 110, 112 in the past. Why can't he get back there? But then you look at his market share, which was actually 7.1%, which is at the very up end of the competition.
00:10:53
RowanTAFM
Yeah.
00:10:57
Holmesy
And all of a sudden now that gives us some context around, oh, maybe he is what he is, or maybe he's even a little bit overpriced if the rest of the team comes up a little bit more. But on the flip side, if they do try to change their game style and win a few more games and increase their total points, if he's consistent in his market share, then there is scope. So it's it's interesting to put some context behind it.
00:11:18
RowanTAFM
Yeah, absolutely. And I think seeing the the fluctuations of in terms of team points year on year, like that's really um helpful. I'd like there to be this this data more readily available. I've collected it myself in terms of team points. But yeah, this being able to see it and change and predict the change and then see how players go about it is really important. And the thing is with Andrew Brasher as well, continuing on that, he's hit 7.12, think, percent for for the year. Like that's a top seven player.
00:11:49
RowanTAFM
And as we also know, people who are at that top echelon trying to repeat that year on year, it's almost near impossible as well. It's so rare that we see any improvement amongst those players. And so then you're going, oh, he's got an uphill battle to even maintain his market share, let alone see his team change.
00:12:06
RowanTAFM
improve their fantasy points per game. And so you then have to kind of go what's the narrative that you need to tell yourself that would happen that would allow that positive um to to actually eventuate?
00:12:19
RowanTAFM
And so I think the context here is really helpful.
00:12:21
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, 100%. It's interesting you say. Hopefully the data is more available. I know at Marrera's Magic with Selby and his guide this year, um he he's going to have his market share page with team total points, trends, pre-buy, post-buy, all that. So for all the listeners, make sure you order the season guide when that comes about in the next week or so. it's It's really really, really exciting. But outside of market share, what are the are some of the other stats that you've been diving into which can help predict a player's fantasy output?
00:12:50
RowanTAFM
Yeah, so I've actually been going through two two sets, kind of what's good for predicting team points, like team totals, and also what's then good for predicting and what what just correlates really well with a player's performance individually as well. So in terms of team totals, there's a few things that I've noticed. And one is loose ball gets as a team.
00:13:12
RowanTAFM
Another is the percentage of chains that lead to scores. Another is disposals per turnover. And then there's ah ah a thing called retention rating, which you find it
Team Analysis: Carlton and Collingwood
00:13:20
RowanTAFM
on Wheelow wheelie Ratings, a phenomenal statistical site as well. um But all of these things point to the ability for a team to continue to possess the ball. The longer the chain, the better, right? And I think it's kind of common sense, but sometimes we don't know what the numbers are that we should look for that kind of help point us to that.
00:13:38
RowanTAFM
And so pretty much there's all the stats that point to can a team hold on to the ball longer? And particularly in space, that's why I like loose ball gets. Loose ball gets is one of these numbers that talks about getting the ball in space, not under as much pressure like a hard ball get. And I think that's where fantasy and super coach differ, right? Fantasy, we just want clean possession.
00:14:00
RowanTAFM
And teams, they just want clean possession. So that's one of the things I love about fantasy for for team totals is loose ball gets and the ability to have long chains and more disposals before they turn it over. But then for individual players, handball receives, meters gained, and loose ball gets again.
00:14:17
RowanTAFM
There are also three statistics that I've found... the top fantasy players usually have in common these abilities to actually, again, get the ball in space, but they're being used by the team. And I think that's another thing I'm looking at is the opportunity that a player has. And so handball receives is one of those statistics that, well, that's all about who's being looked for, who's finding the space, who's...
00:14:40
RowanTAFM
being given the ball by their teammates. And so hairball receives, I think a phenomenal statistic for fantasy coaches to look at because it doesn't just um relate to the individual then, but it's also about the opportunity that the team's giving them. And meters gained as well. It means they're moving the ball either by foot or by hand. It means that they're trusted by the team to, and,
00:15:01
RowanTAFM
the best in their team, hopefully, to be able ah to get the ball down the field. So that's what they want as well. So those are some of those behind the scenes statistics that I think are really fantastic for for coaches to to jump into.
00:15:12
Holmesy
Yeah, and without even going too deep into it, what you what you just said makes sense. We look at the two highest scoring fantasy teams this year and in Brisbane and Geelong. What were they known for? They were known for winning the ball back in defence and then using solid ball movement to go from D50 into forward 50, controlling the ball, controlling the play, and then obviously scoring heavily. So it just stands to reason that if you've got players in those teams, they're controlling the ball more, they're going to score more. So, yeah.
00:15:38
Holmesy
yeah We will link everything in the show description below to Rowan's Twitter page so that you can go on there and and have a look at more of the deep dive of what he's been doing because, as I said, it's it's been quite fascinating. But what we're going to do tonight is we're going to go through team by team.
00:15:53
Holmesy
We're going to give an update on team total points from last year, the market share data, and then that's going to open up key discussion um to help with players for our starting squads this year, which is um yeah what we're obviously here to do. So starting with Adelaide, ah they were not not the surprise packet um last year. They did drop off the year before, but 2023, everyone sort of thought they were on the upward trajectory and and ready to launch.
00:16:19
Holmesy
They were ranked five for total points, so 15.42 per game. um So yeah, really, really solid. But the interesting thing about Adelaide was outside of a Jordan Dawson who had a 7.1% market share, Rory Laird was the only one that had 6%. So if you think about that 6.5% market that we're looking for,
00:16:38
Holmesy
It seems like there's a spot here in the Adelaide midfield or someone in Adelaide to really, really take a jump. And we have seen it over the last few years. They had a Dawson Crouch, Dawson Laird type model concentrated at the top end. So what are we looking at here for Adelaide, Ron?
00:16:53
RowanTAFM
Yeah, absolutely. Adelaide's, yeah, really interesting. You don't see that much of a gap like Adelaide has between their first-ranked player and their second-ranked player. um Really, every other team's got a much smaller gap than the 1.1% that we're seeing here between Dawson and Laird. And so I think if you look back a year, go back 2024, you can see a bit more
Essendon and Fremantle: Strategy and Performance
00:17:13
RowanTAFM
of an even spread. They had three guys above 6.5% and a half percent and then another, what was it, six players above 5%.
00:17:22
RowanTAFM
And that's typical, and that probably stays similar throughout most teams. you go You've got about eight players that go above 5%, but how it's split within that, is that can change a lot, and especially in the top echelon. But yeah, I think what I'm seeing here is Jordan Dawson at 7.1%. I actually don't think that's actually how the Crows want this to play out, and they've got younger players that they want to grow, guys like Saligo, guys like Warrell through the back line, and And i think they're going to want to see that change. So I look at this and I go, I'm not sure that Jordan Dawson is the starting pick for me um because because of how I think this needs to shift for the Crows to continue on as they improve. And I think there's guys that will improve. I think Saligo is actually a really interesting pick here.
00:18:11
RowanTAFM
because of the space that exists in that midfield. And also there's some but some of those behind the scenes stats. c Saligo's actually pretty nicely positioned some of those. But just going off of this, I'm looking at it and going, okay, I think there's a consistent game style that the Crows have been playing over three years. They're about 15, 40 for each of those years.
00:18:32
RowanTAFM
um and they've also finished minor premiers. So they're not going to want too much to change in their game style, but I think they're going to want to see improvement. I think that that gap, yeah, I think it feels.
00:18:44
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah there's there's definitely room there for someone to jump in. I'm not sure whether we're going to see the the real classic bump that we need for a Jake Saligo. There's definitely scope for improvement, but maybe just ah a draft bump up.
00:18:53
RowanTAFM
No, i probably not.
00:18:55
Holmesy
But yeah, it was interesting last year. I mean, Rankin started strong and it looked like that midfield role was real. Now, maybe he can't... maintain that for a full season with his body. um i think, yeah, what they so they subbed him out in round two against Essendon. um I think prior to gather round, there was a bit of a calf niggle rumor going around. So maybe he can't sustain it, but maybe there's a bit of a room for a Dan Curtin to jump in. I know some some want him to stay out on the wing. Some think he's the next Jordan Dawson, but at the same time, can you have Dawson and Curtin in there as the two bigger bodies with the way that the game's going? I'm not sure, but
00:19:30
Holmesy
yeah There's definitely definitely room for growth there in Adelaide and I think you nailed it. They're not going to go away from what they've been doing over the last few years considering how how they finish. They obviously just need to find another gear um to to make sure they don't go out in straight sets. But bit of a rumour about a Josh Rochelle midfield time. Rowan, do you do you see that at all? It'd be valuable for us as ah as a forward option.
00:19:50
RowanTAFM
Oh, it would be valuable, absolutely. I am hesitant, though. And unfortunately, you're not going to see it round one with Rankin out. Like, I think... ah that That being said, yeah, I think Rochelle goes back into that forward pocket role.
00:20:04
RowanTAFM
I think... that's where he stays from a Crow's perspective. I think that's where they think he's best. Like he can pinch hit, but i don't know if he's got the body to be in there all the time. So Rochelle would be nice. I think it would be nice. But again, it's ah that's a preseason watch. But look yeah, so I'm hesitant, but it's it's possible.
00:20:25
Holmesy
Beautiful. All right, so moving on to Brisbane now, they've been the big dogs of AFL fantasy from a team scoring perspective for the last two years. So they were ranked one this year with an average team total of sixteen fourteen and then they were ranked two the year before with 16-02. So they've been as consistent as it comes.
00:20:43
Holmesy
um And they've had, it's been very concentrated in their midfield for the last couple of years. So this year, you think you had Dunkley at 6.7, McCluggage at 6.3, Ashcroft at 6.1, and then you add in Zorko there as well at 6.4.
00:20:57
Holmesy
And then previously, Zorko had the standout year at 6.9, but once again, Dunkley 6.6, Neal 6.3, McCluggage 6.1. So they've been very dominant in the midfield.
00:21:09
Holmesy
um And it makes sense, right? Their midfielders still get around the ground for marks and get involved. Also, the main question I have here for you is that we all look at Will Ashcroft as someone that, if he was playing in any other team, would be someone that is a serious breakout um candidate.
00:21:25
Holmesy
But if we're talking about a pure market share perspective, if we look this year, Dunkley averaged 108, McCluggage 102, around that 102 mark. So two midfielders averaging over 100. McCluggage finally broke out, but that was off the back of Neil regressing. The year before, McCluggage couldn't crack the 100 marker because you had Dunkley over 100 and you had Neil over 100. So you would think if Ashcroft is to break that 100 barrier and really break out for us, there would need to be a regression from one of Neil or McCluggage, which I'm not sure I see at the moment.
00:21:58
RowanTAFM
Yeah, I think you're right, Holmesy. I think that's the that's the big question. I think Ashcroft, like there's an element where he just becomes the better player, potentially the best player on this team.
00:22:10
RowanTAFM
um And so there is a space where I think, well, maybe McCluggage does pull back a little bit. but Did we see the ceiling of McCluggage this year? Because McCluggage is that guy who can push a bit forward as well. And so that's...
00:22:23
RowanTAFM
um He becomes reliant on the ability for the Lions to sustain those chains further down the ground. And so there's a question there. Does the game style continue to persist? I think it does, especially you know in the defensive half. But what about the forward Could that look different as well? Especially bringing Oscar Allen into the team. What does that do? um So there's questions I have there. I think there's potential for Ashcroft to push 6.5. I think it's possible to for him to be the second best scorer on this team.
00:22:53
RowanTAFM
Dunkley, I think think he stays number one, though. That's hard to read. but But yeah, it's a fascinating team because there's such an even spread up the top. no one's in but No one at Brisbane were in the top 17 players for market share across the league. And yet, they were still producing because of this game style that they sit in. So, you're going to look at that and go, okay, Ashcroft, yeah, he's going need to push.
00:23:19
RowanTAFM
I think McCullough could fall. I think Neil does a little bit. i like Who knows with all the off-season stuff what's really going to go. result with Neil he's already probably got his eye out the door at the end of the season as well so who knows what's going on with that and what that does to a player so i think there is a space where we could see Ashcroft climb but how much and will it be a payoff in our teams that's that's the big question
00:23:45
Holmesy
yeahp Yeah, and the other thing is there's obviously a bit of an eye on the the Brisbane
Gold Coast and Geelong: Stats and Selection
00:23:49
Holmesy
defence. So obviously, Dane Zorko pulled back a little bit this year, which allowed um Wilmot and Fletcher to both increase their market share and and average pretty well for for young players.
00:24:01
RowanTAFM
Yeah.
00:24:01
Holmesy
those Those guys, you'd you'd really think that Zorko would actually have to move move out of position and maybe play forward for one of those guys to really be fantasy relevant for us, right? Even though he's aging, unless he gets injured, he's still going to command enough footy back there to to limit what they can do ceiling-wise.
00:24:18
RowanTAFM
Absolutely. I think this is a classic, you're in the role and no one else can get that role unless you're out of the role. And so for Zorko, if he's going to stay back there, then it's unfortunate for those who want Fletcher and Wilmot to truly go go big, unfortunately. But it's 20-27 perhaps.
00:24:39
Holmesy
Yep. Also makes it a little bit awkward for Kitty Coleman, who we're all hoping is a bit of value in the preseason as well, knowing that those two, Wilmot and Fletcher, were only able to just crack 80 in that side and and they've been fit for two years and and probably gone past him. So one to watch for sure. Moving on to Colton. So they were the they dropped off a bit in 2025. So in 2024, they had 1552 points ranked six and they dropped to ninth with 1525. And they obviously dropped um in games one as well. so i I personally think they have scope to to bump back up a little bit. I know they've lost De Koning, they've lost Kernow. They did recruit a little bit, but it it could go either way. If they come out and win more games this year, I wouldn't be shocked, but I also wouldn't be shocked if they they dropped back a little bit as well. But in terms of their market share, so this year, George Hewitt at 6.5 was their highest.
00:25:31
Holmesy
And then you had Cher at 6.2 and Walsh in a down year still 5.9%. So although we thought it was a down year for him, still plenty of scope for him to get really back into that midfield and get back up to the levels we've seen him before at 6.8 the year before and 6.2.
00:25:48
Holmesy
What are you seeing in this Carlton team?
00:25:50
RowanTAFM
Yeah, Walsh is the name, right? Walsh is, he looks unders. He's done 6.8 and 6.2. Like I said, I think this is the opportunity. We just, like we always say, healthy preseason, right? So that opportunity for someone who we, across the board, would say should be the best player in this team.
00:26:07
RowanTAFM
going forward, then there is that opportunity. and then And I think this says it like no one above 6.5 last year showed that that there was a lack of true ceiling. um So i actually like this for Walsh.
00:26:20
RowanTAFM
What Newman does though, when he comes back into this team, that's, going to be really interesting. But Newman loves a kick. And one of the things that we like to see for team totals is high kick counts. So there's a chance that they can push their team total up even more with the amount of kicks that Newman might bring back into the side. so And you know I think he's a better kick than Oli Holland. So there's an opportunity there for some you know more retention of the football So that's exciting as well. So Sam Walsh, i think, is probably my number one guy that I'm looking at here.
00:26:51
RowanTAFM
And then what Tom DeConing lets go of in terms of his transition numbers is going to be interesting and see who around the ground is able to pick up some of those as well.
00:27:01
Holmesy
Yeah, and we've said it in the preseason, but personally, I think Nick Newman is just absolutely ripe. You look at what he did the previous year, 6.6. The year before that, 6.1. So he's always been a scorer.
00:27:13
Holmesy
And when you've got Ollie Hollands and Nick Haynes, the two defenders both averaging just 5%, they're screaming out for for a distributor back there to just eat up the market share and and really take control. So I think if he's fit and healthy, um he's going to be hard to pass up in the preseason.
00:27:29
Holmesy
Moving on to Collingwood. Now, Collingwood, despite they did improve slightly this year, they were ranked 16 for total points last year. They did increase to 10, but still only 15, 12 total points.
00:27:45
Holmesy
Basically, for Collingwood, it's Nick Dacos and Darcy Cameron, and then the rest is just unders, right? like that They just share it. They're screaming out for someone to come alongside Nick Dacos. I'm personally fascinated by Nick Dacos because we all we all think he's got a 115 plus season in him with how he plays and and whatnot.
00:27:55
RowanTAFM
Yeah.
00:28:02
Holmesy
But when you look at his market share of 7.1 and knowing that Collingwood, I think, probably going to fall off a bit of a cliff this year. They've already had a lot of preseason injuries and towards the back end of last year and into finals, they started to drop off.
00:28:15
Holmesy
it would It would take something very special for Nick Dacos to to really break that barrier, I think.
00:28:21
RowanTAFM
Yeah, I agree. And, you know, it's why a lot of people like myself included got excited about someone like Ned Long in the in the middle of the season last year because they're like, oh here's this young guy that can, you know, inject something into the midfield.
00:28:34
RowanTAFM
Hopefully that increases their ability to hold on to the ball. You know, he's a great, you know, strong mark at times, Ned Long. But I think, yeah, looking at that top end, You've got Nick Dacos just sitting at that 7%. He's done 7% three years in a row. Like that's, that's really, really hard to do. And he is one of those phenomenal, you know, Brownlow worthy type players So he should, in you know in theory, be able to continue to hold that. But that's that's that's top end.
00:29:05
RowanTAFM
And it's top end. And it doesn't take much sometimes for even guys like Nick Dacos to just have a bit of a you know a bit of a slight regression. And then suddenly we're all complaining because he's only putting up 104. you know, on the season or something like that. So Darcy Cameron intrigues me though, especially as a mobile ruckman around the grounds with the new ruck rules. What does that mean?
00:29:26
RowanTAFM
That's really interesting to see that he's gone 6.5 and 6.72 years in a row, but yeah, it's not a high scoring team. And they continue to make finals. And I think Fly seems to be a little bit stubborn in terms of how they want to play as a team, um in terms of what they're trying to achieve, especially with they're all their old old players.
00:29:44
RowanTAFM
I don't see it changing too much. And potentially, if we see some of those players hit that cliff, then I don't know if the team points are going to jump up at all either.
00:29:52
Holmesy
Yeah, I suppose unless unless they really fall off a cliff and they have to go into a bit of survival mode and just try and possess the ball a bit because they don't have the ability to to defend and then run and gun as what they've been doing for the last couple of years.
00:30:06
Holmesy
like that's That's been their m MO, right? Defend hard and then just go.
00:30:09
Holmesy
But yeah, unless we see something change in the first few rounds of the season, Collingwood's going to be someone we have to stay away from. I think a lot of them are pretty much at their potential and Nick Dacos, he'll get tagged at some point.
00:30:09
RowanTAFM
Yeah.
00:30:22
Holmesy
So you just probably look to target him when he's when he's at the bottom of his of his price. But if if anyone can have that outlier year like a Sheezle where they go that 7.3% to 7.5%, it is Nick Dacos.
00:30:34
Holmesy
So I'm definitely not going to rule that out either. Moving to Essendon, now they're they're a really tricky one to to kind of get a handle on just because of how many injuries they had last year, players in and out. They were a fantasy goldmine in 2024, so they were the number one fantasy scoring team, averaging 16.09 points, and that was off the back of just that slow transition ball in the back line, which got them nowhere wins-wise potential, but was good for fantasy coaches, so we had a lot of them. They ah they dropped by over 100 points this year to be ranked 12th. Now, was that because they had a lot of injuries, which meant their players were just all experimenting around in different positions to plug holes? It did seem just by the eye that they looked to try and speed things up at the back end of last year and play a play a different brand of footy. But what do you what do you think here about the Essendon team?
00:31:25
RowanTAFM
Yeah, it's it's like, is it a write-off? That's the question. It was last year really a write-off. Can they get back to what they were? And I think if you've got a healthy Darcy Parish, that's a really interesting one.
00:31:37
RowanTAFM
He's someone that I think has shown... He he went 6.8 three seasons ago in 2023. like That's huge. If he can come back and inject something into this midfield, that would be really exciting to see from a fantasy perspective.
00:31:52
RowanTAFM
Jai Caldwell, though, I think is the guy that I'm looking at here, especially with Nick Martin now. Nick Martin went 6.3 last year, went 6.7 the year before. like he's He's always been so crucial to their to their numbers.
00:32:06
Holmesy
Yeah, I think if you took that injured game out as well where he was injured on seven, that 6.3 probably goes to 6.5 or above, right? So he's he's consistently up there.
00:32:15
RowanTAFM
Yeah, absolutely. So we're looking for someone on the outside. It makes me interested in guys like, you know, what's the next step for someone like an Archie Roberts? Like, you know, does he push up a little bit more? Can he spread a little bit more? But yeah, I think the two guys I'm really interested here, it's Darcy Parrish for what he's done in the past and whether he can be healthy. If he can be healthy, then there's an improvement there. But Jai Caldwell looks like he just was absolutely elevating last year. and it sucks that he got done with some injuries there as well. But if he can be healthy, then I think he's got the kind of game to hit a 7%, especially as Zach Merritt gets on.
00:32:53
Holmesy
Yeah, 100%. I think it is going to be Caldwell this year. I'm really bullish on him. But yeah, the injury injury worries is always the thing. And if we're talking about a starting squad percept perspective, paying up 104 for an injury-prone guy is always ah a bit nerve-wracking.
Hawthorne, Melbourne, and North Melbourne: Fantasy Potential
00:33:08
Holmesy
But if he was the number one averaging player at the end of the season, um it wouldn't shock me. And I've got him as a top eight mid. so Yeah. Yeah, Essendon's a fascinating one. I think they will persist with trying to play a bit quicker.
00:33:18
Holmesy
They are quote-unquote rebuilding now and needing to play a different brand. so I'm not sure we're going to see that real chip-chip around in the back line that we we saw at times at the start of the year and and the previous year.
00:33:25
RowanTAFM
Thank you.
00:33:29
Holmesy
But I do think their scope to to bump back up a little bit. Those injuries that they had last year were pretty, yeah, just freakish out of the box. Yeah. One to watch. Now, let's talk Frio. And we've already touched on this a little bit. So the big regresses in 2025 and it actually resulted in them winning 16 games and making finals. So just straight off the top, I can't see their game style changing.
00:33:51
Holmesy
They did win a lot of games from coming from behind late, which... Maybe this year, if they're a bit more of a stronger team, they they don't win those ones from coming so far behind. They dominate a little bit more early, which could result in a little bit more of a bump in fantasy scoring. But they went away from the chip chip. They they were more direct, more defend, and then get the ball out in open space and run.
00:34:14
Holmesy
And they dropped down. They were ranked 16th for fantasy points, 1,428.
00:34:19
Holmesy
For a bit of context, I went back and actually had a look at um each of their individual games. I'm pretty sure they only had one game of the year, which was above 1600, which is what Brisbane averaged. So it makes it super hard for for us to pick up our fantasy premiums from Frio. If you think Brayshaw, Sorong, Jackson, Young, if they're just going to be that team first, run and gun style team, good fantasy our good AFL team hopefully, but not necessarily fantasy scorers.
00:34:47
RowanTAFM
No, that's it. And one of the things I look for in terms of thinking with a game style continue is were they a winning team? Did they make finals? And when a team is like like that and like what Frio did, chances are the coach isn't going to want to change too much. They just want to make tweaks and and think about how they can get a little bit better and go on. There's less um need to kind of absolutely throw out the game plan. So I can't see it changing either. And so looking at this,
00:35:14
RowanTAFM
You know, they dropped below 1,400 fantasy points as a team nine times and even went below 1,200 once, which is just abysmal. They lost 26.5 disposals per what?
00:35:26
RowanTAFM
like like I look at this and you go, yeah, sure. Guys like Brayshaw and Sarong, you're like, they're solid numbers. They're hitting 7.1%, 6.6 for Sarong, 6.7% for Luke Jackson, 6.3 for Jordan Clark. like That's great. You love that.
00:35:43
RowanTAFM
But the reality is, is they're just sitting in the wrong team. And it really hurts. And it sucks to kind of look at it. and You wish there's that positive regression, but what's the narrative? And this what it comes back to, you right? It's like, what's the narrative that we're going to see here? Because if that's their ceiling in terms of a percentage of their team points and the team points ain't improving, then it's actually really hard to read improvement for these guys.
00:36:09
Holmesy
Yeah, like if we use Caleb Sorong, for example, All-Australian three years in a row, 6.8% in 2003, 6.7% in 2004, 6.6% this year. that is That is as consistent as you get. And we would have looked at him and gone, he's unders. He's done 108 before and 104 before.
00:36:26
Holmesy
But if you're picking Sorong, you're not actually, you're not picking Sorong betting ah ah an improvement for him. You're actually betting on a changing game style for Freo.
00:36:36
RowanTAFM
Yeah, absolutely. And so people got to ask themselves different questions. And this is where I think like the perspective that I've brought in here is is hopefully helpful. It's to go what's the team doing?
00:36:48
RowanTAFM
can Can this work in the team? And for Frio, I'm struggling to see it change, really struggling to see it change.
00:36:55
Holmesy
Yeah, and then you add in a Hayden Young who I'm predicting to to almost push Brayshaw and Sorong as being ah a gun midfielder in that team. That's just another piece of the pie that's getting added in for a market share perspective. So although they've got a good run to start and it's going to be very tricky to avoid them, I think Freo, at least at the start of the year, a bit of a bit of a nogo
00:37:17
RowanTAFM
Yeah.
00:37:17
Holmesy
Moving on to Gold Coast, they're relatively consistent. So in 2024, they averaged 14.79 fantasy points, which is ranked 15. And then this year they dropped by five, but increased by 14. So under a dimmer Hardwick system, we're not surprised that they don't score fantasy points at the at the top end. he's He's never done that.
00:37:39
Holmesy
It's very concentrated at the top. So you've got Rowell at 6.9 and Anderson at 6.8. And the year before, ah you know Flanders had that out of the year um season. Noah Anderson was still at a 7% market share. So he's been up there all along. It was Rowell that elevated to get to where he was this year.
00:37:59
Holmesy
The question I sort of have with all of this is that we've got a Christian Petrarca going into that system. um Judging by what he's done at Melbourne, once again, been 105-110 for many years, getting out of Melbourne where he just wasn't happy going to a ah different environment, we would expect there to be an uptick in scoring.
00:38:17
Holmesy
But the narrative around Gold Coast and how they score their points suggests that it's it's going to be tougher than what we what we first thought.
00:38:25
RowanTAFM
Yeah, i agree. Petraca is one of those interesting ones and we love the team change a lot of the time in AFL Fantasy, particularly when it's a change in role or are they going to complement the team and be really important to to their cogs. um But the reality is we've got Raoul and Anderson as their main two cogs. Petraca is going there to aid them. They are not there to aid Petraca. And so when you've got these two guys who are sitting at the top of this of this market share tree,
00:38:55
RowanTAFM
it's really hard to expect that Petraca is going to be able to come in and actually you know make ah make a really strong impact on a fantasy-wise. Petraca as well, he only went 5.9% over this year the last year and So he's not coming in with...
00:39:14
RowanTAFM
you know, a really strong accumulator type numbers either. I think we know that, right? He pushes forward. He gets a lot of points through through his scoring at times. And so for him to come into this, we need to see him push forward, not sit in the midfield. And we need Gold Coast to turn into a really forward heavy team.
00:39:38
RowanTAFM
And so that's kind of the narrative I think you want then, because if he's not going to crack Raoul and Anderson, it's going, well, where else around the ground is he going go to get the points? And so if you want Petraca to score well, you need him to be drifting forward and to be a really important forward for their team.
00:39:56
RowanTAFM
So does that match with the role that you think he's going to get? That's the question you have to ask then as well.
00:40:03
Holmesy
Yeah, and and I think he will, to be honest. like i I think he's going in there to have that mid-forward split, but he's ah he's a ball hunter, same as Anderson, same as Rau. They love Took Miller in there as that as that defensive body. They had Alex Davies in there at the back end of the year who was that defensively-minded mid as well. So I think he will push forward, but as we've seen, the the upper end of fantasy forwards, you're Dylan Moore above 90. And that's really, it was in that year where Hawthorne were not great and he had a bigger market share than what he traditionally has now that they're they're starting to get better.
00:40:36
Holmesy
Yeah, I struggled to see it for Petrarca personally. good Good player, no doubt. And he'll be in ah in a much better environment for his own mental health. I just, yeah, from a market share perspective, I struggled to see it. So it'll be very, very interesting there.
00:40:50
Holmesy
um Although you had ah John Noble break out a little bit there, his his stuff wasn't off the charts and they're gonna get some of their defenders back in terms of Ballard, which might free up a Mac Andrew and and move the magnets around a little bit. There's not really any anything we're targeting in the Gold Coast back line wouldn't have thought.
00:41:07
RowanTAFM
No, not really. I think they've kind of, you know, they've revealed their colours with Noble and Rioli and how they want to do that and Jeffrey in there as well. And so I don't think there's going to be an out-and-out star in that in that back line. um I think there was people who were hoping for Rioli to take on like a Basha Hooli type role under Dimmer, but that obviously became more John Noble than anyone else. And so, but there's always a split. And so there's going be down games across that. So I don't think that's a place we want to target, no.
00:41:37
Holmesy
Yep. All right. Geelong. Geelong were the big surprise packet this year from a fantasy scoring perspective.
Port Adelaide, Richmond, and St Kilda: Coaching and Scoring
00:41:44
Holmesy
So they went from rank 12, increased by 55 points a game to rank two, 15.88 per game. So that was clearly off the back of the recruitment of Bailey Smith and the running power that he was able to bring to that side. And then obviously Max Holmes going to another level.
00:42:00
Holmesy
When you look at Bailey Smith's market share of 7.3%, that's off the charts. And if you think about what he was doing to start the year, what he ends up averaging 116, but he was going well above 120, which is nuts.
00:42:12
Holmesy
You would think that he's still going to be a top eight mid with how he runs and he he never attracts attention, but you would expect that to come back a little bit from 7.3, right? Yeah.
00:42:22
RowanTAFM
I think you expect it to come back. Yes, absolutely. But i don't think by a lot. And when I look at Geelong, especially over the last number of years, one of the things that I've always seen with Geelong is that they've been a really even spread team.
00:42:36
RowanTAFM
And so like 2023, you had Tom Stewart at the top at 6.3 and then a whole bunch of guys around the 5% mark. or just or in the fives. And then 2024, it was the same, except we had Max Holmes at 6.2 and then a whole heap of guys between 4.8 and 5.7. Such an even spread. And so teams like this, I'd always thought, what if there's an accumulator that enters the the fray here? What if they get someone that is just an absolute ball hunter, finds the easy marks and is allowed to do that? What would happen? And then here comes Bailey Smith and he walks right into the team and puts up a 7.3 on the year and was going about,
00:43:13
RowanTAFM
almost 8% at times. And so I looked at that and i go, well, that's that's really interesting because I think that's a pattern that potentially we could look for in other teams.
00:43:24
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:43:24
RowanTAFM
And we're going to get to one in a minute where ah there is an opportunity for something like this to happen. so yeah, high. Yeah. is really really high Can he repeat it? Yes, he can because of who else is in that side and how they're structured and and how they're using the ball. Could Max Holmes go another level? Well, he actually went to 6.5. He had his career best year in terms of market share last year as well. And that, I think, got pulled up by having Smith around into that freedom and the continuation of those chains. And Holmes got onto it more. Sometimes, though, because it was Bailey Smith dropping back into the defensive half to kind of keep pushing it up the ground.
00:44:03
RowanTAFM
So i look at those two guys, Smith and Holmes, and go, okay, sweet. Smith has unlocked something here. the The points per game has gone up, but he's been really prevalent around the ground, allowing others to improve as well. And I think we saw that with Max Holmes and and their relationship there in terms of how they use ball.
00:44:21
Holmesy
Yep, yep. And they were always, um we never really used to target too many premiums for Geelong outside of a Tom Stewart back in when he was you know up there in that 95 plus average. But what it is really good for is rookies and mid-pricers if they can sustain a long-term role in the team. It was why Dempsey broke out so well last year.
00:44:42
Holmesy
It's why you know potentially someone like a Tanner Bruin or someone else coming in is value because they they spread everything so much that they very rarely have such high top end and such low bottom end. It's all it's all sort of shared. So I do love that about Geelong.
00:44:58
Holmesy
Obviously, the job security side of things is a bit hairy with Scott at times. They did obviously make the grand final, so there is always room for aggression when a team makes a grand final. In saying that, though, they are pretty young, so you wouldn't expect too much to change um in that Geelong system.
00:45:14
Holmesy
Moving into GWS, so they regressed a little bit back this year in terms of points for scored. So they dropped back to 1532, which was ranked eight. And we didn't really see the midfielders score that well this year.
00:45:26
RowanTAFM
Thank you.
00:45:29
Holmesy
It was a Lockie Whitfield at 6.9, and that's that's him. He's been a seven and a seven right before that. So he's as consistent as it comes there. And then you're looking at Finn Callaghan at 6.6 and then Lockie Ash. So this is really fascinating where they've had two upper end defenders really hog a lot of the ball, which is why I think we did see a little bit of regression from a Tom Green. If there's so much chip mark going on in that sort of back 50 and them not being able to utilize the midfield as much and win that ball forward of center.
00:46:00
Holmesy
What do you see for GWS this year? I think they're a fascinating team.
00:46:04
RowanTAFM
Yeah, really fascinating. And it's the big question is, can they shift their usage up the ground? Can they get out of their defensive half and defensive 50 more? And where does that go? And I think the overtaking here of Tom Green by Finn Callaghan is really important to take note of. And one of the things, like i was saying before, handball receives really important stat for individual performance.
00:46:27
RowanTAFM
Finn Callaghan led the league in handball receives per game. He was going getting 15 per game. And so that tells me that he's so important to the side.
00:46:38
RowanTAFM
They absolutely want the ball in his hands and he's being looked for consistently. often probably because Tom Green's you know at the coalface, he's ditching out to Finn Callaghan getting it in space.
00:46:49
RowanTAFM
And that's what we want. We want the players in space. We want the players to be able to spread well. And Finn Callaghan took an absolutely important step. And so if this team can actually start shifting forward more again, or shifting the ball and having those you know increase in an increase in chains that lead to scoring, that lead to the forward 50, then Callaghan, I honestly think, is one of those guys that can take another step.
00:47:13
RowanTAFM
And Whitfield and Ash take a little bit of a step back. I think that's what GWUS want going forward. And so he's the guy that I'm looking at here that going, he could honestly a ah top eight midfielder for us, Finn Callaghan. So yeah, I'm looking at that.
00:47:29
Holmesy
Yeah, you can't look at what GWS did last year and think that that's how they actually want to play, having Lockie Whitfield and Lockie Ash having 30-plus touches in that defensive half and and going nowhere and then turning it over. So I do agree. I mean, just that without looking at the data, Finn Callaghan just screams to me as someone that teams will lock down on when he gets off the chain because he's such a powerful runner. But at the same time, if he if he has that ability like a Bailey Smith and he can run all day, then maybe teams won't be able to won't be able to stop him. So yeah, I mean, Finn Callaghan, I think average 106 or somewhere around there post-buy. So he's he's already shown for large patches that he can do it.
00:48:05
Holmesy
So yeah, absolutely. He's a breakout potential there. Moving into Hawthorne. So Hawthorne ranked four for total points this year for 15.49 up from 11th the previous year.
00:48:17
Holmesy
But Lloyd Meek, the Ruckman, at 6% market share was their high. So this is like a Geelong. This is I know you where you were getting where they've got room for an accumulator to come in and really take it by storm because they do share the ball.
00:48:30
Holmesy
But at the same time, they're such a good team at actually holding onto the ball that they just share it so well. So we haven't seen any standout fantasy performance just yet.
00:48:38
RowanTAFM
No, that's right. this is This is where I go as a fantasy coach. Only if if only Zach Merritt ended up here. Because this would have been one of those situations where I was just like, yes, Zach Merritt is in my team absolutely because of what I've seen Bailey Smith do at Geelong.
00:48:57
RowanTAFM
But there isn't that guy. People would like to say Will Day is that guy, but the reality is is Will Day has never shown and an ability to be above 6% as a market share guy. Not yet, anyway. So with hesitancy, I look at Will Day and go, he's is potentially, the he's probably the best player on the team, but in what way, in what style does it actually relate to AFL fantasy scoring? And I'm unsure. Supercoach, yes, but fantasy, not so sure.
00:49:24
RowanTAFM
So it's again, they were a winning side. They got to finals. Are they going to change anything up? The personnel isn't quite changing at all. And so i can't quite see it. I can't quite see much change. So it's a team that I'm probably going to avoid all year. There's one guy I look at and I go, well, Josh Ward, he was second on the team for handball receives, third on the team for loose ball gets.
00:49:46
RowanTAFM
He's only 22. There's a chance that he elevates. But again, I'm not sure. I'm not sure where that where that sits in terms of, you know, AFL Fantasy playing classic is probably not the guy that I'd pick. It's a draft pick more than anything.
00:50:00
RowanTAFM
But I think he's the guy that's most likely to improve. There is space. There is space for people to kind of elevate in this team. But will Sam Mitchell want that? And the question that's a question, but the answer I lean to is no.
00:50:14
Holmesy
Yes, I suppose the thing about Will Day is that you don't you don't need him to have an elite market share to still be value for us in classic. Like Price at 76, if he can go 95, which would be somewhere around that 6.3%, 6.4% market share, then he still is a good pick for us.
00:50:32
Holmesy
But he is still interrupted preseason, still coming back from all the work he had done in the offseason. like those um acute, the contact injuries that's that he gets, the breaks in the bones and stuff, they're very risky for ah for occurring. So Will Day is a tricky one. He's someone i I keep going back to and I won't rule him out, but obviously as has the early buyer too. But yeah, I think once again, if you can get a rookie or mid-pricer in this Hawthorne system and they can really break in, I think they've got scope to to to go up because they do share the ball so much and and that's the system that they play. But in terms of upper end premiums, yeah, you just got to stay away from it as, yeah, made a prelim. they're not going to look to change too much.
00:51:13
Holmesy
Melbourne Demon, so ranked sixth this year with an average fantasy points of 1541. So that surprised me when i when I went back and had a look at the data as they weren't a very good side this year.
00:51:23
Holmesy
They've obviously obviously had Max Gorn at the very top end who was was very good at what he did. Talk to me a little bit about Melbourne because ah I see them as potentially falling off a cliff and that can obviously go two ways. You see them falling off a cliff like Richmond did and and really regressing down.
00:51:39
Holmesy
or they fall off a cliff from a are from a team perspective, but they've still got some older heads in that side that possess the ball a little bit more in the back line. So Melbourne, talk to me.
00:51:48
RowanTAFM
Yeah, Melbourne look like a team that I agree is going to fall off in terms of team points because the quality of players are gone, right? Oliver Petrarca bowies out for the first bit of the year. And so there's two things that you can think of. One, that's lots of team points up for grabs, but it's also a lot of players that make things happen for the team. And so the team's really going to regress and and fall when it comes to and their actual ah massive points that they create so it's it's a tough one i think max gone like he's been above seven percent three years in a row that's what he does it's how important he is to the team wouldn't be surprised if he continues a seven percent plus market share but i don't think he can improve i think that he's at his ceiling and i think with the team regressing he's going to fall down as well christian salen's a really interesting one because if
00:52:38
Holmesy
I was just about to bring him up actually.
00:52:40
RowanTAFM
Yeah, he's he's the guy that I look at and I'm like, okay, Bowie's out. This team is probably going to live in defense what much more than they used to. he's He's the one. He's the primary distributor. So I look at that and go, okay, that's he's kind of exciting to me. He's he's the one that i look at there. There's other guys that I think, obviously we think about Cozzi.
00:53:02
RowanTAFM
Where's he going to go? Jack Steele's now into the midfield. What does that look like? Langford, we want to see him improve as a second-year player. But Cozzi's already in the midfield mix. And he's if he's already operating at a ceiling, then that becomes and a negative for him as well.
00:53:18
RowanTAFM
Trent Rivers is another guy I think is really, really interesting. I put a tweet out today talking about how he's actually leading, who's second his team for handball receives, or no, meters gained, and he was fourth. in handball receive. So he's obviously being used a lot.
00:53:32
RowanTAFM
And if he's being used in the back line, I think that is actually a benefit to him. So he's a really interesting one, but there's so much speculation because of how much change coaching change as well that's going on here. But I think the most likely thing is that the team points goes down and you're going to see maybe two or three guys who are the old heads, the Christian Salem, who, and the Max Gorn that go, I'm going to take control here. And Be the one that the ball is trusted with more than anyone else. And that we might see a a spike here for those for for someone like Christian Salem because the ball is just always back there.
00:54:07
Holmesy
Yeah, Christian Salem, 98 post-buy. No Bowie, who was, I think, 51 kick-ins last year. Stephen May, they tried to get rid of. Does he play? He had a lot of kick-ins last year. It's definitely scope there. I'm definitely interested. Before we move on, Jack Steele.
00:54:21
Holmesy
He's someone that, I mean, personally, myself, I've penciled in coming across. I think he's going to have a prominent midfield role. At the same time, new coach, new system coming from Geelong. They spread their midfield. Are they developing the young guys? what do you Jack Steele, from a market share perspective, do you think he's okay or are we just having our goggles on here?
00:54:39
RowanTAFM
No, I think he's okay because they're going to need experience. They need that experience in the midfield. So he's going to be relied upon at the moment. If if we're seeing Lankford as like a fourth-year player or or people like that, then I think maybe less so. But because of that need for someone to go in there, earn the ball, win the ball, and consistently be be in the guts, there's a chance for improvement for Jack Steele, I think.
00:55:05
Holmesy
Beautiful. North Melbourne, ah average of 1476, so rank 13. So still quite low in fantasy points scored and that makes sense. You saw lots of games last year where teams got on a roll against them and they just couldn't possess the footy whatsoever.
00:55:21
Holmesy
Interestingly, very concentrated at the top end. So Tristan Cherry, 7.7% last year and then 7.1% this year. So everyone with Cherry had a massive drop off, but still 7.1%, which is up there with the best. Max Gorn, 7.1%. So still still having a massive market share in that team.
00:55:42
Holmesy
Harry Sheasel, 7.5% last year and this year So it is very hard to maintain What are we thinking with North Melbourne? They've got to
Sydney and West Coast: Prospects and Challenges
00:55:53
Holmesy
improve, right? If we really need them to improve so that the market share for those players can come down but their averages can still maintain or or improve.
00:56:01
RowanTAFM
Absolutely. Yeah, we need them to improve. They need themselves to improve. Like, that's what everyone's looking for with North Melbourne. The young players are getting better. You think that the share will potentially even out. I'm not saying you can't start Sheasel. Hopefully the team improves, but the reality is he was the first.
00:56:18
RowanTAFM
He was first for market share in the league last last year. Like, that's... It's unlikely he repeats that. That's just the stats. X was sixth in the league. And North need that to change. 1.2% split between X at 7.1 and then LDU it's at 5.9. Like we said about Adelaide, it's just too big.
00:56:36
RowanTAFM
They need that to change. They need people to fill the gap. Someone like Colby McKercher, perhaps. Someone like a Tom Powell, perhaps, can jump in there. But... Yeah, that's it. Can North's team points per game improve to counteract all these changes in market share? That's the question.
00:56:52
RowanTAFM
And I don't know. I'm not sure if I can see North really taking a step into that, you know, top 12 teams.
00:57:00
Holmesy
I'll throw a name at you and i'm not I'm not advocating to pick him just yet, but just a bit of interesting thought here without with our research. So LDU, 2003, 6.7% market share. Now, clearly North were a lot worse back then. last year and then dropped all the way back to this year. So a fair We always pegged him as someone that might be able to average 100 one day and Supercoach is different, but he hasn't hasn't got there yet. But with the emergence of Sheezle, maybe Tom Powell improves a little bit as well. Colby running off the halfback, maybe a bit more of attention goes there and LDU can get a bit more free ball.
00:57:38
Holmesy
Do you think there's scope there for him to improve?
00:57:41
RowanTAFM
Yeah, a little bit. I think a little bit. it's We've seen it before and that's the important thing. Like you've seen that high market share before. So could he be the one that fills the gap? I think he he could be. Do you know how old he is? I can't remember how old he is off top my head.
00:57:57
Holmesy
think he'd be about 27, 26, 27.
00:58:00
RowanTAFM
Yeah, so that's definitely room. He's he's definitely got the the body still to be able to do that. So I think that's, it's it's worth a shout.
00:58:08
Holmesy
Yeah, it's just it's just interesting and just trying to find value in the midfield. I don't think a lot of the value is there personally, even though it's been's been talked about that there's there's lots of value there. I think it's a very interesting year.
00:58:19
Holmesy
All right, Port Adelaide, huge drop-off again. So they went from rank 10 in 2024 with 1535 all the way back to back to rank this year
00:58:32
Holmesy
pretty much an eighty point drop Once again, very concentrated at the top end here. So Connor Rosey at 7.1, Zach Butters at 7. It wasn't as concentrated the year before with Zach and Connor at 6.5 and 6.2. But then you go back the previous year, Connor and Zach, 7.2 and 6.9. So...
00:58:51
Holmesy
i i'm yeah I'm fascinated at this in this because we spoke about this yesterday. You see room for growth with Port Adelaide and I do agree. But if you are picking Rosie and you are picking Butters, it's like the Frio situation. You're banking or betting on a changing game style for Port and an increase in team total points and not necessarily the player.
00:59:12
RowanTAFM
Yeah, it is for you again. I think the changing coach is really important. And Josh Carr, what does he bring to the side? How is he going to instruct their their structures? And where are we going to see the ball live?
00:59:24
RowanTAFM
That's really, really important. And so you look at this, so Myles Bergman, we've talked about role change for for players and how important that is for their market share. Well, a role change for Myles Bergman could be exactly what we need. Like Olly Wines at 6.2, that's a lot for an old guy. Yeah. I think Myles Bergman has the opportunity to swap with wines in terms of market share in in this team.
00:59:47
RowanTAFM
So I think that's something that I'd be looking at. if the If they do struggle as a team, and that's a lot of the talk is that port's now bottom six side or around that mark, then potentially means they're living in the back line a bit more as well. So what does that mean for Rosie? Can he actually be, um ah can he repeat?
01:00:06
RowanTAFM
The 7.1, is that possible? Well, he's gone 7.2 before, so I think that's that's ah that's a positive mark. And I think 2024 with his injuries, you can kind of read into that that he should have been better than the 6.2 that he was. So Rosie is probably one that I'm pretty confident in to be able to hold. And if there is then a change team change in terms of game style and an improvement in team points, so that's encouraging to me as well.
01:00:31
RowanTAFM
And like look I'll throw the smokey out there. Kane Farrell's the guy that...
01:00:33
Holmesy
Yeah, I was going to say, I'll set you up for it. I'm not going to talk about it because he's banned from coming out of this in my mouth on this podcast, but you can have the floor for your your spicy, spicy take.
01:00:43
RowanTAFM
Oh, look, he's my spicy take. is That Kane Farrell could be the Lockie Ash to Connor Rosey's Whitfield. And that's because pretty much Kane Farrell is one of the only guys of the last three years that's been 16 plus kick guy and a 470 meters gained guy across the last three years that has averaged below 80.
01:01:05
RowanTAFM
And so ah and a majority of those players that go 16 plus kicks and 470 plus meters per game over the last three years, they're all... Most of them are averaging 100 or 95 plus. And so ah there's something in me that would love a change of game style and and to see Kane Farrell redeem himself after he burnt so many coaches like myself and sounds like yourself last year.
01:01:28
Holmesy
Yeah, I don't see it, but i'll be I'll be the first one that congratulates you if it are if it pays off this year. And it probably happened and you won't do it. But moving on, let's go to Richmond. Once again, right at the bottom of the barrel, ranked 17. Barely any change. I mean, slight up from 13.95 into 14.04. But yeah,
01:01:46
Holmesy
but yeah just Premiums for Richmond, you don't really want to touch. ah touched on i think I spoke to you about it. It was the reason that I didn't go Tim Taranto the previous year just because of the market share argument of what his market share would have to be to be that 105 plus averaging player in a team that scores so little fantasy points.
01:02:07
Holmesy
They do have to improve at some point. They're on the they're on the rebuild. So at some point, they're going to improve. I'm just not sure whether it's this year.
01:02:15
RowanTAFM
Yeah, I'm not sure either. I think there's a chance because you're hopefully getting some more consistency in the young guys to come through. Guys like we saw, like Sam Banks, you know, starting to perform well. and But you're right.
01:02:30
RowanTAFM
This is a slow burn, I think, at the moment for this team. So there's no one that I'm looking at here and targeting. Taranto is just always interesting. Like, he's been a favorite of mine for a long time because he has done a really high market share in the past.
01:02:41
RowanTAFM
And we've seen that 7.5%.
01:02:41
Holmesy
yeah what Seven and a half, seven and a half in 2003. Yeah.
01:02:45
RowanTAFM
Exactly. That's it. and When he came into Richmond. And so I look at that and go, oh that's exciting. He can do it in this team. But it was a different different time, very different time for the team as a whole. So I think Tarantino would need more support.
01:02:57
RowanTAFM
um Sam Lawler is probably the one that I'm you know fascinated by in terms of what he can do, but it's probably too early for him as well.
01:03:06
Holmesy
Yep, no need to spend any more time on Richmond. St Kilda, so they actually regressed a little bit back this year. So they went from ranked four, they lost 40 points to average fifteen thirty four ranked seven. So that's interesting. They were typically a very good fantasy scoring team.
01:03:23
Holmesy
Very interesting at the top. So you've obviously got Nassai Wanganeen-Milera at 7.2, Rowan Marshall 6.9, Jack Sinclair 6.6, Jack Steele 6.2 and Jack McRae 6. So very concentrated at the top end with players above 6.0.
01:03:39
Holmesy
makes it that this particular research makes it a hard argument for an Asai Wanganeen-Miller further breakout to improve because 7.2 is just so such a high market share.
01:03:50
Holmesy
Yes, he's moving into the midfield now by by all reports, which means that's all untapped and we don't know what he can do. I'm just saying this data would suggest it's it's going to be hard for him to really improve. But what are you seeing with St Kilda?
01:04:03
RowanTAFM
Yeah, I think if Nassai moves into the midfield, then chances are he's taking steals points. And so then the question is, well, who's actually in the back line that's going to take some of those points yeah that from Nassai?
01:04:17
RowanTAFM
And then you look at how the team's you know structured. And I struggle to see exactly who that guy is. um for hence Perhaps ah who's a Darcy Wilson could sit back there and you could see some points filtering his way. um But McRae also was like, where is McRae in the Saints mix?
01:04:36
RowanTAFM
Like he's 6% and had quite a low time on ground. And we knew we saw Ross Lyon kind of play around with McRae towards the end as well.
01:04:45
Holmesy
sub in the last game too.
01:04:47
RowanTAFM
Yeah, that's it. So i think Windhague is probably the one that I am most interested in in to see in terms of who's potentially going to be able to take a big step.
01:04:57
RowanTAFM
ah But I think if if we're seeing a siren in the midfield, then the question becomes, yeah, who's who's pairing with Sinclair off of halfback?
01:05:05
Holmesy
Yeah, I think Sinclair is the interesting one because we would, I mean, old way of thinking, we would think, okay, Nassai is going into the midfield. Sinclair might potentially see a bump because there's more ball for him to go around back there.
01:05:18
Holmesy
He actually didn't average that well when Nassai went into the midfield to end the year. I think it was about a 98 average, so about what he does anyway. And his market share actually increased this year. So he was 6.2 the two previous years and then 6.6 this year. So he actually commanded more of an overall market share.
01:05:37
Holmesy
It's hard to see Sinclair improving on what he's done. If anything, I think there's probably a slight regression there if St. Kilda get better in the midfield and they can actually hold the ball forward of centre.
01:05:48
RowanTAFM
Yeah, I agree.
01:05:50
Holmesy
All right, Sydney. So Sydney dropped a little bit this year. So they dropped 40 points to average 15-11, which is ranked 11. So i think a lot of that can be down to Errol missing at the start of the year. He was so crucial to the way that they play, um the the way they structure up and set up and go. So they definitely improved in the back half of the year and it would not surprise me everyone fit and healthy if they're able to jump back up this year and and increase their fantasy scoring as a team, as a whole.
01:06:20
Holmesy
What's interesting, so Grundy 7.1, that's what we see for Ruckman. But no doubt that 7.1 would have been a lot higher in the back end of the year when he really went on that run. So potentially there's scope for for Brodie Grundy to continue what he was doing. Now early buy makes it tough.
01:06:36
Holmesy
And we have only really seen that sort of 11-game stretch of him doing it. But I am interested in a Brodie Grundy at least at some point throughout the season. Outside of that, Errol 6.6, Heaney 6.4, those have been the two big dogs for the last two years in the midfield.
01:06:52
Holmesy
What improvement do you see here?
01:06:54
RowanTAFM
I think Gordon has another level compared to last year. Like we saw a lot of those, he had three sub 90 scores, and but he also flashed that ceiling with three over 120. And we've seen in the past, he can go 6.9%, 7.3%. Like is made for players like Errol Gordon.
01:07:15
RowanTAFM
And so I look at that and go, I think that's where you you want to want to target. Isaac Heaney is interesting, but I don't know if he's got anything more to give compared to like considering how they use him. I know people like to talk about Callum Mills. I know Geordie loves him, but what have we really ever seen from Callum Mills outside of short bursts? like In terms of his market share, it's always been a load, but the role change is important if he's going to go into the mid. So that's, that's intriguing to me.
01:07:47
RowanTAFM
But yeah, I think Gordon's the one that I would be almost locking into my side if I was picking right now.
01:07:54
Holmesy
Yeah. I mean, how many times have we seen players come back from long-term injuries and just be shell of themselves? They're not fit. It takes them so long. And he just came back in right from the jump. He wasn't fit. But if he can do that after the syndesmosis,
01:08:09
Holmesy
The sky is the limit for him and he has all the tools to be the number one averaging player in the comp. I do think at some point in his career, he'll start getting a lot more attention. We did start to see it in previous years because he is so damaging, but he also does get a lot of cheapies just because he worked so hard as well. So yeah, you're right. He's the prototypical um fantasy football player for us. And it's just a shame that he has an early buy, but yeah, I'm not going to rule him out anyway. That's for sure.
01:08:36
Holmesy
Moving on to West Coast. Now, this is absolutely horrendous. So ranked 18th two years in a row, they actually dropped back again. So if you think about Richmond averaging 1,404 points per game, west Coast averaging So less then richmond and richmond were no good the The Eagles, they they fascinate me because they're so bad and they will have to improve at some point. I know Louis is big on a Harley Reid breakout, third year. There's been talk of a Tom McCarthy coming in, averaging 83 from the mid-season draft. Like surely there's improvement there with ah an actual pre-season under his belt and whatnot. But it is hard to see where the points will come from in this side.
Spotlight on Elliot Yeo and Eagles' Prospects
01:09:18
Holmesy
Like you think an Elliot Yeo, who is a name and his value on what he's done in the past, but for him to average a 90 in that side,
01:09:26
Holmesy
the market share is going to be quite high. So yeah, talk to me about the Eagles.
01:09:29
RowanTAFM
Yeah, look, you go to um got a look at their fantasy scores. No one in the side last year scored a 120. No one. We got a 119 from Liam Baker at one point. It's just, it's abysmal and nothing you can rely on. I think that's the reality. And yes, I think there's improvement to be had. And I think Harley Reid is someone that you can look at and go, yeah, he's he should be pushing to make that leap. But the reality is the team around him is still a struggle town and whether he's going to get involved in as many chains as he needs to, to be able to continue to push up that average. Like that's the big question, but look, he's 5% last year. I think there's room for him to go six plus like, and that's, that's really possible.
01:10:15
RowanTAFM
Tom McCarthy, I'm not sold on. He already went 6.1% last year as a guy that they pulled off of, you know out of the reserves and like, I just, I can't see it for Tom McCarthy.
01:10:25
RowanTAFM
I don't know if he's good enough. That's that's the real question I have.
01:10:28
Holmesy
Yeah, and the the move into the midfield, I think that that could actually have a ah negative effect on his points, if we're being honest, without the kick-ins and and the ball that he was getting in defence. I think it'd be much harder. I mean, um i I can't advocate picking him, but I mean, if we're talking market share numbers, Liam Duggan is interesting, 6.6 and 6.5 the two years previous, dropped back down to a 6.0. battled a bit of injury here and there.
01:10:52
Holmesy
McCarthy goes into the midfield. Maybe there's a little bit more ball for him back there, but yeah, I'm not going to spend too much time talking there. I think they're fascinating and obviously we're going to have rookies come in. um So we're going to be looking there, but I think with the Eagles, you still need to really temper your expectations. Surely the only way is up. They've got to improve a little bit, but you can't see them having that big jump to get even back close to the, you know, 16th, 15th, 14th high scoring teams. It's ah still a long road for them.
Western Bulldogs: Midfield Dominance and Future Stars
01:11:19
RowanTAFM
Absolutely.
01:11:19
Holmesy
Last team we're going to go through is the Western Bulldogs, fantasy goldmine for many, many years. Ranked third in the comp, 1578 points. And the previous year, ranked third, 1578 points. So they are as consistent as they get. And I'll let you talk through it. But the thing I've always loved about the Bulldogs is that they are so concentrated in their midfield.
01:11:41
Holmesy
They have put up market share numbers in their midfield like no other team. It's like the midfield does all of the scoring and then everywhere else is just really low. So yeah, talk to me about the Bulldogs.
01:11:51
RowanTAFM
Yeah, it's they are unique. And i was actually watching a ah a video that Dylan Alexander put up today about how just volatile they are as a team. And they play for the chances. They play offensive, so offensive that their defense clearly struggles. But that doesn't matter for AFL Fantasy. what ah What that does is just means that there's this core group of guys that they just elevate. And so you've seen that year on year.
01:12:18
RowanTAFM
And particularly 2023, we had Tim English at 7.6 and Bonten 7.5 at Treloar at 6.7 and Liber at 6.6. Like such a concentrated amount of points with just four guys. And they can kind of do that, but repeating it is hard. And so in 2024, you saw them all drop essentially, except for Treloar went 6.9, but Bonten 6.7, English But then some of them bounced up. We had in English at 7% last year, Bonta six point nine live at 6.9, Liber at 6.3, Richards at 6.1, Kennedy at 6.1. Having five guys above 6% is pretty impressive as a side. And so there is always points to be had at the top end. And so we often find that in our sides, we've got multiple dogs at the end of the year because they keep putting up the points. And so it's a place that we can always go to. My question around game style is that there's...
01:13:10
RowanTAFM
Does Bevo actually realize that they need to be more defensive? But if he's just going to keep sticking with this gung-ho game style, then absolutely there is room up the top that you want to take hold of. Tim English, I really like as a ruckman. The English-Grundy discussion I think it's really fascinating with their early buy. Who do you go? Do you go either of them or one of them? I think there's absolutely room there for Tim English to be that with as a high transition ruckman. I think he could be the number one ruck next year. Ed Richards is another one, I think, that could lift and be a guy that replaces Libba up the top there. And actually, you know, he he led the team in handball receives last year. I like that stat, as you know.
01:13:52
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah. I still think Ed Richards more of ah a super coach guy. Maybe he gets to a Hugh McCluggage level of that 101, 102 average, but he's always going to be far too damaging. And as Bont gets on in the next couple of years, Richards is going to be the guy that becomes the main tag target and and all that kind of
Adam Treloar: Age, Injuries, and Performance
01:14:10
Holmesy
stuff. So...
01:14:11
Holmesy
the The one question I have before we finish, because I'm on a bit of an island here, I've been a little bit baffled by the the disrespect of Adam Treloar. Now, I do understand that he's 33 years old or 32 years old.
01:14:22
Holmesy
He's injury prone and whatnot. But when he plays, he scores. And when you combine the concentrated top end of all of the Bulldogs midfielders and his scoring history of when he plays, if he's if he's back in that side as an inside midfielder,
01:14:39
Holmesy
He's 1.10 average the year before, 1.05 before that. Yes, he's older now, but in that forward line, i injury injury concern is the only thing that's turning me off at this point in time without seeing any games.
01:14:52
RowanTAFM
Now, I'm with you there, Homsey. I think he is absolutely a guy that if he's healthy to start the year, you should be putting him in your side because the improvement based on off of last year should be evident straight away. And he's done it before.
01:15:08
RowanTAFM
And let's be honest, we've got the 50% time on ground rule. We've got all these different things coming into play to help us as fantasy coaches manage the injuries a little bit better. Yeah, Treloar looks juicy.
01:15:20
Holmesy
Yeah, it's age. It is age. Like he is old and we don't see many, many midfielders at that age, um you know, average extreme levels, but we don't we don't need him to be 105 guy.
01:15:31
Holmesy
Like 198 is going to get the job done. We saw Libba do it at 33 this year. So age is just a number.
01:15:37
RowanTAFM
Now
01:15:39
Holmesy
Yes, it's out of the ordinary. It gives me Dane Zorko vibes of two years ago when the the podcast Echo Chamber said, we can't do it. He's 35, he's
Podcast Dynamics and Future Plans
01:15:47
Holmesy
injury prone. And then he plays 54 games straight and averages 110, 100 in those two years. So i'm not I'm not ruling him out yet. He does have an early buy, but I do want to see if if he's opening round, if he's a centre-bounce midfielder for Bulldogs, it's going to be hard for me to say no. and i'll I'll die on that hill.
01:16:03
RowanTAFM
I'll go with you on that.
01:16:05
Holmesy
Beautiful. Mates, thank you so much for that, Rowan. That's a real deep dive, ah a bit of a different perspective around AFL Fantasy, which I absolutely love. we ah The podcast Echo Chamber is real. we We talk about the same things. We have a lot of the same opinions, but I love being able to put a bit more context and have a bit more of a deeper discussion about what we're seeing. So really appreciate you jumping on. Can you just give the listeners, and I will put it in the the show description, but where they can find you on Twitter so they can deep dive a little bit more on the work you're doing at the fantasy marketplace.
01:16:36
RowanTAFM
Yeah, sure. So you can find me at Rowan TAFM for the A4Fantasy marketplace stuff. And yeah, I'm putting a whole heap of stuff, recording some videos and things like that throughout the preseason to kind of dive into what's good correlation between A4Fantasy points and other statistics and then thinking that through. Hopefully that's helpful for people as they yeah kind of want to dive further into it. And much like our chat that we've had this this evening. I'm also on TikTok. It makes me feel like I'm 22 instead of 32, but the videos are on there as well so if people are real on that they can check that out and it's a bit of fun so now i'm looking forward to the season mate and I thank you so much for having me on
01:17:13
Holmesy
No, I appreciate man. If the pod pod ends up on TikTok, it's purely because I've got Geordie DeSantis, the young bloke, getting me on. But thanks for jumping on. As I said, the pod pod is brought to you by Moreira's Magic this year. Hopefully the season guide will be out in the next week or so. We're waiting for the... the app to launch and then as soon as the app launches, bang, we'll be away and really excited with all of the features that we're adding in the season guide this year, including the marketplace market share that we've spoken about today. So you can pre-order now, but keep an eye on that.
01:17:44
Holmesy
We'll be back on Monday for our first positional preview, starting with the defenders. Take care.