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E19: Early Housing Orders and Egg Grading Uncertainty
2 Playsin 7 minutes
This week the Toms unpack two fast-moving issues with real commercial consequences for UK poultry businesses: the regional housing order for avian influenza and industry rumblings over how “seconds” are classified at egg packing centres.
AI: early season, uneven policy, real market risk.
A regional mandatory housing order takes effect on 30 October across much of northern England and the Midlands/East Anglia, but excludes Wales, southern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The hosts question the geographic carve-up given the pattern of wild-bird positives and recent outbreaks nearby.
It's noted that it's unusually early in the season, and case numbers have accelerated in the past week.
Producers - particularly in Wales - face operational uncertainty and potential divergence between national administrations.
Commercially, recent culls in the UK and mainland Europe (notably the Netherlands and Germany) tighten supply just as the market was edging back towards balance.
For eggs, the combination of early AI pressure and seasonal demand could turn sentiment quickly; for turkeys, significant sunk costs as the risk heightens in the run-up to Christmas.
Egg grading: pressure on what counts as a 'second'
Separately, egg marketing inspectors have been visiting packing sites amid indications that guidance on external faults may be applied more strictly.
The discussion focuses on two recurring triggers: dust (largely a farm-origin hygiene issue) and albumen "glazing" that can occur downstream when a shell breaks on the grader and residue contacts subsequent eggs.
Operators note that graders are configured by humans within tolerance bands, and inspector spot-checks sit against standards that can feel subjective in the grey areas.
If thresholds tighten materially, more eggs could move from Class A to B.
That would reduce retail-grade output, increase commercial friction over liability (farm vs packer), and exert inflationary pressure on Class A pricing.
At a national level, a lower Class A yield risks pulling in more imported shell and product - potentially with different assurance profiles.
Episode takeaways:
- Volatility ahead in Q4. Early avian-influenza pressure, uneven regional policy and EU flock losses point to a tighter market and higher operational risk.
- Layers and packing. Pay close attention to how grading guidance is applied in practice; even small shifts in "seconds" criteria can move Class A yield, producer settlements and retail availability.
- All species. Keep biosecurity audit-ready and tighten comms discipline, as policy lines may shift again with November data.
The episode ends on a sober note: the picture is fluid, and the next few weeks are likely to set the tone for the winter.
Recommended
Transcript
Intro
Weather and Warm Clothing
00:00:16
Tom Woolman
Hello and welcome back to the Poultry Network podcast. I'm Tom Woolman.
00:00:20
Tom Willings
And I'm Tom Willings.
00:00:22
Tom Woolman
Hello, Tom.
00:00:23
Tom Willings
Good afternoon, how are you?
00:00:25
Tom Woolman
I'm all right. I'm all right. Yeah, yeah. autumn Autumn is definitely with us, isn't it? um
00:00:31
Tom Willings
It's freezing cold. I've got my poppy on, but I've also got about 15 layers on, so I'm too tight to stick the heating on. Yeah.
Poultry Housing Order Confusion
00:00:38
Tom Woolman
You might have to do a few star jumps maybe in the middle of the recording if um if you if you feel like you're losing the ah the sensation in your toes.
00:00:41
Tom Willings
Yeah, exactly.
00:00:46
Tom Willings
Exactly. First thing I'm going to do is shut my potpoles. ah you ah Have you shut your potpoles ready for tonight? Midnight tonight?
00:00:54
Tom Woolman
Well, I haven't shut my pop holes because at the moment um I've just looked and I'm not in an area um where I'm required to. but but um Actually, tomorrow I could be in an area um where I am required to. And um ah yeah, it's a little bit um confusing, this this this housing order, exactly why they've picked the area that they have.
00:01:18
Tom Woolman
um Doesn't really seem to make a lot of sense to me. um
00:01:25
Tom Willings
I too am outside of this regional mandatory housing order that comes into effect from ah from the 30th of October and and encompasses all of the northern England and much of Midlands, East Anglia, but for ah strange reason excludes all of Wales um and and all of the southern counties of of England of course Scotland and Northern Ireland as well.
00:01:51
Tom Willings
But yeah, there's there's ah there's a a reported case um from earlier in only the start of this season really not very far away from from me and yet we're apparently deemed insufficiently at risk to to warrant a housing order I'm not sure the the wild birds have got the message
00:02:08
Tom Woolman
Yeah. and
00:02:10
Tom Woolman
No, and when when I look at the spread on the map, I would say that, yeah, this the spread has been fairly consistent between east and west. um Yes, there's been some cases further north, um maybe a few more further north than they have further south. But, um yeah, it looks like there's an impact across the country.
00:02:29
Tom Woolman
Yeah. Yeah, I think it's particularly interesting for Wales because there's a lot of free range producers in Wales that will be very worried at the moment. and um And you get into this funny situation where um Welsh Animal Health decides to go in a different direction to um you know to to English Animal Health.
00:02:47
Tom Willings
Mm-hmm.
00:02:48
Tom Woolman
And and and Scotland has obviously got ah got to do their own thing as well. um So, yes, it looks.
00:02:53
Tom Willings
i think I think, Tom, I think everyone would be really worried and very naturally worried. why Why would they not be concerned about it? And let's remember, this is this is very early in the season.
00:03:08
Tom Willings
you know We're still at the back end of October. And um you know I'd say historically, I don't mean of old, but you go back over the course of the last five years, obviously,
00:03:21
Tom Willings
October, with the exception of I think it was 22, 23, has been um very, very quiet indeed. And then it's November that we start to see the case numbers start to ramp up our housing order or those that are involved in housing order now.
00:03:28
Tom Woolman
No.
Unified Approach to Avian Flu?
00:03:39
Tom Willings
has come ahead of time from from the the previous year, but the previous year there were no cases in in ah October, so that feels proportionate, but um when you the the powers that be, the authorities, the the scientists themselves are pointing to just how great they perceive the risk to be relative to um you know immediately prior years, it seems really strange that um There isn't a more coordinated approach, firstly, across the whole of England, but but but secondly, across the whole of the United Kingdom.
00:04:16
Tom Willings
um You'd have thought they'd be aligned on this one when you know people like Gordon Hickman, OBE, are saying we're bracing ourselves for a very difficult season ahead.
00:04:26
Tom Woolman
yeah yeah you would have thought it would all be mapped out really and um you know and as the cases arose as and when you know they arose in certain places that they that they would just act as one wouldn't you um
00:04:37
Tom Willings
Well, there's been a rash in the last week, hasn't there? It hasn't really been very much momentum around the talk, or at least at the talk that has um you know become audible to to public ears such as yours or mine.
00:04:53
Tom Willings
in in the past week but you know just prior to and then over the weekend that's just gone there's been a rash of um of new cases new breaks and then to the the credit of of all of those people that are involved in making these decisions you know what appears to be on the face of it a relatively decisive intervention to to to put a housing order in place. But again, without wanting to sound overly critical, it's just very strange that the region has been defined in the way that it has. And, and you know, let's see what the the the the month of November brings, A, for the extension of the housing order, but, you know,
00:05:37
Tom Willings
I hope this is not the case. hope it's
Impact on Egg Market
00:05:39
Tom Willings
completely wrong. But the further spread the disease, which feels somewhat inevitable.
00:05:45
Tom Woolman
yeah i mean if i were going to sum it up when i looked at the map it almost looks like um my five-year-old has drawn on the map of the uk with a with a red crayon and they've just gone where where they where they want to it there doesn't seem to be any right my more reason to it's really
00:06:01
Tom Willings
I think you need to get off the fence, Tom, and say what you really think.
00:06:08
Tom Willings
Scathing. I'll tell you what is interesting.
00:06:09
Tom Woolman
well
00:06:10
Tom Willings
What is interesting is what it's going to do to the market because, you know, there's been for the last few months, there's been
00:06:23
Tom Willings
but if not expectation, then nervous um talk about the potential for the egg market to to be um it will recover its balance between supply and demand. And perhaps there will be sufficient eggs. You've seen plenty of new planning permissions and and and the national flock continue to grow.
00:06:43
Tom Willings
And there there are only two things that are going to stop that inevitable imbalance or over oversupply. and And of course, one of them is disease. The other is a growth in demand. um And yeah, it feels almost...
00:06:59
Tom Willings
overnight there's there is another change in tone because it's not just it's not just our country that are suffering um with with
Bird Culling Concerns
00:07:08
Tom Willings
losses the netherlands think culled something in the region of and a quarter of a million birds in and and not not saying they're all layers but you know there's been significant losses in the netherlands um i read a report this week that germany have culled 400 000 birds and um you know markets there are uh are pretty tight and you know there's uh
00:07:29
Tom Woolman
and and And it's about, so it's probably about half a million layers, isn't it, that we've lost really in the past month?
00:07:33
Tom Willings
it's got to be it was 300 000 barn at a stroke um and i would i would imagine it's well over 200 000 in the last in the last few days alone so yeah it's could be more than half a million gone
00:07:36
Tom Woolman
Yeah.
00:07:44
Tom Woolman
and interestingly at the moment it's a lot of the losses this month have been have been egg layers haven't they barn barn layers and and free range um and I'm sure there's a lot of people on the broiler breeding side and and the turkey side holding their breath really um I know this is a really quite and quite a nervous time for turkey producers really um yeah so
00:07:55
Tom Willings
Yes. Yeah.
00:08:02
Tom Willings
yeah
00:08:07
Tom Willings
Yeah, a lot of sunk cost in turkey production right now. Give it another. They've got to get through another month, haven't they? Until um until the the turkey cull is is is you know fully fully underway for for Christmas, for those for those fresh birds, obviously.
00:08:15
Tom Woolman
um
00:08:23
Tom Willings
But um yeah, an awful a awfulful lot of money invested
00:08:26
Tom Woolman
But to Tom, I was
Changes in Egg Grading
00:08:27
Tom Willings
to that point.
00:08:28
Tom Woolman
going to ask Tom, when we're talking about um supply and constraints on supply, um when it comes to eggs, there's there's also some some other things in the offing that we're that we've become aware of around um around seconds and how seconds are graded so that that that might impact the number of seconds which are which are which are coming out of the out the packers processes.
00:08:48
Tom Willings
Yeah.
00:08:50
Tom Willings
Yeah, we'd done we should we should tell our audience that we had invited Gary Ford um from from Free Range Egg Producers Association to to join us on today's call.
00:09:02
Tom Willings
And he's had some internet problems, but um yeah, he's he's more genned up on this than I am. But I but i can tell you from kind of personal experience working with a ah um ah few in the industry and and in and out of a couple of packing centers in the course of the last few weeks that that yeah this is a ah genuine live discussion point and and pressure point in the in the trade i think what's what's happened um this is my interpretation as well so i should say sort of you know kind without prejudice and all of that carry on but
00:09:33
Tom Woolman
Yeah.
00:09:35
Tom Willings
um I think this is a reaction from APHA to um the subjectivity that really exists in the classification of of second grade eggs.
00:09:49
Tom Willings
So, you know, there's been some pretty well publicised challenges, i.e. legal challenges, cases um around what constitutes um Class A and Class B eggs.
00:10:02
Tom Willings
And I think a conclusion could be drawn that says the guidelines, which I think if I'm right in saying, and it's Gary that told me this, that the guidelines are best part of 25 years 20 years old at least and um the kind of the categorization of of of faults so by faults I'm talking about you know cracks and and and and specifically in this case different um types of of of dirt of surface marking on the egg so that could be
00:10:34
Tom Woolman
It's sort of dust, isn't it? And albumin and...
00:10:35
Tom Willings
yeah well it Yeah, dust is definitely one, and that's a yeahs a massively contentious one is dust, as is albumin.
00:10:36
Tom Woolman
and album and and and
00:10:41
Tom Willings
You know, your your na
Effects of Egg Classification Changes
00:10:42
Tom Willings
nail hit firmly on the head, but it could be you know it could be soiling from feces. It could be blood. It could be, you know, the signs of of of pest or parasites or whatever it might be.
00:10:53
Tom Willings
But, you know, to your point, albumin and dust are two things that I think the industry has got on um you know notice. we've got to watch this very carefully because, know,
00:11:05
Tom Willings
you know The process of grading eggs is continuous and you know the the machine is ah and a wonderfully complicated um piece of Meccano, if you like, but but moving in um in harmony, in symphony, all of these moving parts, which if they didn't work,
00:11:24
Tom Willings
in perfect synchronization would result in in enormous numbers of eggs just being smashed to bits on on on the machine itself. So, um yeah, they they they are continuous, but inevitably an egg breaks. And as it breaks, um if it breaks, then that it's going to leak.
00:11:41
Tom Willings
And when it leaks, it's going to contaminate the eggs that then immediately follow in that process. and And, you know, not just one or two, but that there there is a legacy to ah to ah to a broken egg, which can kind of give a um an egg that you might find in the in the supermarket today in the box, a ring of kind of glazing of where that albumin has um you know contaminated, I suppose, for want of a better word, and eggs that are followed in the in the process.
00:12:08
Tom Willings
To avoid that is a very, very difficult thing.
00:12:09
Tom Woolman
Yeah.
00:12:11
Tom Willings
I'd say it's an impossible ask. um And to downgrade all of those eggs that are just glazed is the word, and Equally, I think, well, I don't know how um how many eggs would end up being rejected, but I would suggest that they would be significant.
00:12:30
Tom Willings
Dust is a slightly different one because that obviously is dust. um I say obviously, the the chances are it is dust that originates from the farm and then the farm um has has definitely got a role to play in removing that dust or seeing that that dust doesn't doesn't um doesn't become...
00:12:50
Tom Willings
problematic um whereas you'd argue and certainly I would if I were a a producer in the case of the albumin that well if the eggs are collected from my farm and they're a-okay and you've as a as a packer or ah you know my customer you've signed for them to say that you're happy with them um The fact that when they've got to the machine, there's been a problem with them and that they've been downgraded. Is that really my liability? And I think this is the point. There's a huge debate that ah um could come down the tracks if if what is being um rumoured or or suspected at a packing centre level comes to pass.
00:13:28
Tom Willings
between you know the producer of and the and the and the packer that's handling those eggs as to where the fault originated and who carries the cost. And and ultimately, there's then another discussion about what's that have what effect does that have on the market?
00:13:44
Tom Willings
Well, I can think of two immediately blindingly obvious ones. One, there's going to be less eggs. and And the consequences of that is going to be, um you know, ah inflationary on price.
00:13:55
Tom Willings
Many farmers might say that's a brilliant thing. Bring it on. and But it could be inflationary for the consumer. That's probably not a great thing for for demand. And ultimately, if all of these standards are part of the, you know, the the the national control program for the for the protection against salmonella specifically,
00:14:18
Tom Woolman
Yeah.
00:14:19
Tom Willings
You once got to look at the UK's salmonella record and say it's as good as, if not better than um anybody else's.
00:14:27
Tom Woolman
Yeah.
00:14:29
Tom Willings
And to that point, if you're going to reduce the the net output of the UK of class A eggs fit to be sold to the consumer, ah you're then going to open the door to something that is inevitably going to be of an inferior quality or health status.
00:14:43
Tom Woolman
yeah Yeah, yeah.
00:14:44
Tom Willings
So how do you square that circle?
00:14:45
Tom Woolman
So what? Yeah, yeah. That's what you say. You're saying if you
Episode Summary and Light-hearted Exchange
00:14:48
Tom Woolman
if you create a shortage in the market, then the the likelihood of eggs coming in from from other countries whose whose sound metal records are not as strong ah increases dramatically.
00:14:59
Tom Willings
Yeah, yeah, completely.
00:14:59
Tom Woolman
um
00:15:00
Tom Woolman
Yeah, yeah.
00:15:00
Tom Willings
we're We're a net importer anyway. You know, I think 70% of the eggs um produced in this country will end up being sold directly on the supermarket shelf. So, um you know, we are what as ah as a nation somewhere between 80 and 90% self-sufficient. We're a net importer.
00:15:18
Tom Willings
all of the time. And some of what we are producing does go into processing, i.e.
00:15:24
Tom Willings
you know heat treatment, pasteurisation, cooking, etc. So there there there is capacity for some of what's being produced to go into processing. processing, but yeah you know it remains to be seen how many eggs would would ultimately be implicated in the recategorisation. But Tom, i'll give you let me give you a couple of stats.
00:15:24
Tom Woolman
Mm-hmm.
00:15:46
Tom Willings
The original guidance notes has in the region of 30, 35 photographs that depict um you know the quality of eggs, of which four, only four, refer to inferior quality and you know external faults.
00:16:04
Tom Willings
I think the draft new guidelines, which have I think the the industry has got until something like the 7th of November to report back on, to potentially push back on. I don't think you'd call that a consultation, but you know there's ah an internal um you know discussion going on.
00:16:23
Tom Willings
But I think the new guidelines have got maybe 25 even 30 pictures of pictures those um of of faulty or external falsen eggs and and and a hundred photos that depict eggs as ah as as a whole.
00:16:37
Tom Willings
So um a vast difference.
00:16:39
Tom Woolman
So, but how how does it work? Forgive my ignorance, but I'm not as i'm i'm not up to speed with with the how eggs are graded in packing centers with with commercial eggs, but are these gradings are being done by by computer? they They're not being done by by person, are they?
00:16:55
Tom Woolman
um
00:16:55
Tom Willings
No, ah goodness me. No, this is, you know, you talk about machines that are capable of handling quarter of a million eggs an hour. and, and
00:17:04
Tom Woolman
So how does the how how would the standard then, and when we've changed the standard and and you say we've got we've got the more pictures with with what is classed as a downgrade, how would you you input that then into the into the grading computer and it and it would make adjustments accordingly, would it?
00:17:18
Tom Willings
The grading computers are set up by the operator. So I think there's a first point to say is that your grader and my grader may not operate to exactly the same standards because there's a human intervention there that sets what is a tolerance or an acceptable tolerance to have the acceptable tolerance.
00:17:28
Tom Woolman
Yeah.
00:17:36
Tom Woolman
Yeah, it's a bit it's a bit it's a bit like rejects in a broiler processing factory where, in theory, everyone's grading to the same standards, but different factories um will come out with slightly different levels depending on yeah just how they operate and and and who's actually in charge of the process.
00:17:36
Tom Willings
um acceptable
00:17:48
Tom Willings
Yeah. ah i shouldn't I shouldn't make that sound as vague as ah perhaps I did and in in my answer, but you know ultimately there are egg marketing regulations that determine the point that the eggs leave the egg packing centre.
00:18:08
Tom Willings
there is a tolerance for faults in those eggs and those faults are both internal and external that then APHA come and spot check you know no without notice and and and to whatever extent that they determine to be proportionate so you know if they find nothing in half an hour expect they go home but if they find something then they'll look a bit deeper and they'll look a bit deeper e etc And, um you know, that that tolerance level um is is set. and And the packers, of course, you know, will look to tread a fair line. That means that they're always on the right side, but they don't want to be, you know, they're a commercial organisation. And if they've got a tolerance and they'll work to those tolerances.
00:18:51
Tom Willings
Fair enough. but those tolerances, that's where the subjectivity comes in, because the the inspectors are applying the rules. um like I don't think the rules per se are changing.
00:19:05
Tom Willings
you know An egg glazed with albumen would be deemed to be, ah by the letter of the rules, to be to be a Class B, but...
00:19:16
Tom Willings
um you know To what extent does glazing constitute glazing?
00:19:22
Tom Woolman
Mm-hmm.
00:19:25
Tom Willings
These are the areas that are more vague. And ah and again, you go back to my point is you go back to the supermarket shelf today and you open any box and there's a pretty fair chance that within that carton, even on a six pack, you're likely to find an egg that has some,
00:19:43
Tom Willings
um ah marking from that exact um issue where where an egg, you know ah goodness knows how many eggs before on the machine has broken and left a trace of of leaking albumin.
00:19:58
Tom Willings
Does it make that egg dirty or unsafe? Well, absolutely not. know Here we are, we're the safest place to eat eggs
00:20:03
Tom Woolman
um
00:20:07
Tom Willings
um in the world.
00:20:09
Tom Woolman
o
00:20:09
Tom Willings
who yeah Who knows? but you know
00:20:12
Tom Woolman
And welcome, Jeremy Clarkson, to the Poultry Network podcast.
00:20:13
Tom Willings
Yeah, he's just walked in. Someone once said, I sound like Charlie off off Clarkson's farm, which I take as an enormous compliment. I think that's a great thing to be um off of Clarkson's farm, but not perhaps not Clarkson himself.
00:20:28
Tom Woolman
Yes. No, and my wife, when she used to try and explain to people what I did for a living, she used to describe me as, as yes, as cheerful Charlie for chicken farmers, you know, do turn up and and and have a look at what's going on and and and try and bring a little bit of reality to to to the situation that's going on.
00:20:45
Tom Woolman
um ah But I think it also comes back to the fact that that that i'm I'm quite clearly a bald chap going to farms and delivering advice. And, um you know, the certain the same is true of you as well.
00:20:55
Tom Willings
Absolutely right. Absolutely right. Well, Tom, that sounds like a pretty good place to end it um for for for this week. It's an interesting um time ahead, both from ah from ah an egg quality point of view and ah and an avian flu point of view.
00:21:08
Tom Willings
So yeah, catch up with you next week and let's see but see what the week brings.
00:21:10
Tom Woolman
Yeah, I'm sure things um sure things will move pretty quickly, won't they, when it comes to the avian flu situation. So um yes, one to keep a close eye on.