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EP 20: Housing Orders Go Nationwide, Wales Holds Out — On-Farm Impacts & Market Signals
46 Plays2 days ago
THIS week, the Poultry Network Podcast recorded a last-minute episode to consider the latest avian influenza situation – particularly the Welsh government's reluctance to declare a housing order.
With Professor Ian Brown warning that this season could be the worst yet, England has extended a mandatory housing order nationwide, while Northern Ireland follows suit.
Wales, however, has not (yet) announced a housing order.
That divergence is creating headaches for free-range farmers and packers who are weighing biosecurity, welfare and insurance realities against inconsistent policy lines.
On EPIC, the mood was wary but not bleak. Recognition for sector leaders (including Turkey Producer James Chalmers and Young Poultry Person of the Year Hannah Cargill) underlined how collaboration and openness still cut through in a tough year.
We also touch on the conference theme, the long-range consumer picture - yes, even GLP-1 drugs - and what shifting demand could mean for poultry by 2050.
Finally, we unpack a striking trade statistic: summer shell-egg imports were at record levels, with a sharp recovery from EU sources.
For processors and packers, this hints at supply tightness, stock rebuilding, and changing sourcing dynamics as disease risk rises.
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Transcript
Intro
Introduction and Episode Overview
00:00:15
Tom Willings
Welcome back to another edition of the Poultry Network podcast. My name is Tom Willings.
00:00:20
Tom Woolman
And I am Tom Woman.
00:00:23
Tom Willings
Tom, good evening. This is ah this is a rare event.
The Avian Flu Threat
00:00:26
Tom Willings
we can If anyone's got the video feed, this doesn't really work on on straight audio, but we're sat surrounded by darkness recording as we are ah approaching nine o'clock at night, um feeling the imperative to talk about um yeah the progression of avian flu. It's it's in mainstream media. um yeah Professor Ian Brown on the on the BBC today.
00:00:52
Tom Willings
um Yeah, things that things are gathering pace and not in a good way.
00:00:56
Tom Woolman
Yeah, and I saw that BBC article. so Ian Brown, um the headline is bird flu virus spreading in UK could be worst yet.
Housing Orders and Government Responses
00:01:04
Tom Woolman
Expert warns farmers. so um So Ian Brown has come out saying that he thinks this year could be the worst that we've seen, which is obviously pretty shocking news for people because we've been through some pretty horrendous years over the past five years when it comes to bird flu.
00:01:21
Tom Woolman
And really, I suppose we wanted to address bit of the elephant in the room, didn't we, Tom? Which is, um it seems like England's got its act together and and put a mandatory housing order across the whole of the country. But at the moment, and we have made some inquiries, it doesn't appear that the Welsh government is showing any signs of following suit at the moment.
00:01:39
Tom Willings
Yeah, that that that is the understanding, which is extraordinary. I think we when we commented on the first iteration of the of the English housing order, we were surprised that they and kind of drew the line midway across the across the country. And I suppose everybody south of of of that line will be relieved in England, relieved that common senses prevail. But um you know with now a succession of of cases in West Wales over in Pembrokeshire following the one that was slightly further north in Corwyn. Apologies to anybody in Wales listening and and again, my dreadful pronunciation, murdering um murdering the the the local names. But tim yeah, four four cases in Wales already and you know you you've got to think what on earth are Welsh government doing?
00:02:32
Tom Willings
Come on. What are you waiting for? ah Naively, I sit here thinking, as obviously, as ah as an English person, that um when I think of all of the devolves, I'd rather think that that agriculture and Wales, you know the the Welsh government, would be the devolved government, the administration that were the most supportive government.
00:02:55
Tom Woolman
yeah
00:02:56
Tom Willings
of the agricultural sector. and and And silence, let alone inaction, is, again, ah i can i just my my heart goes out to the the Welsh farmers.
00:02:57
Tom Woolman
yeah
00:03:08
Tom Willings
You and I will know a lot of people with skin in the game, a lot of farmers in in in Wales, and there's an awful lot of free-range egg producers in Wales, of course, who will be climbing the walls in frustration, I've no doubt.
00:03:18
Tom Woolman
and
00:03:25
Tom Woolman
No, it's just bizarre, isn't it, really? um Because you think, well, if you yeah if you are in government in Wales, what is What is your plan, really?
Biosecurity Advice for the Poultry Industry
00:03:34
Tom Woolman
Because I think even at the moment, as i said, we haven't really seen any sort of plan and and they must have one.
00:03:41
Tom Woolman
Surely they must have one. They must have metrics by which they're saying, right, when when we get to this metric, this is the point that we will implement a housing order. And I and i really... I wonder if Ian Brown is coming out saying what he is.
00:03:54
Tom Woolman
um think I'm just going to read some more of the article um that he has because it's because it's just very succinct um about what
Farmer Concerns over Bird Flu Impacts
00:04:02
Tom Woolman
he says. he see He added that the threat level meant that the poultry industry needed to batten down the hatches, review their biosecurity and redouble their efforts.
00:04:09
Tom Woolman
um Well, ah I guess redoubling your efforts could certainly include putting your birds indoors. You know, that's one thing that you can do tomorrow, which will improve your improve your biosecurity.
00:04:21
Tom Woolman
And I think it also puts farmers in a very difficult position because they're concerned with the welfare of their flocks. They're concerned with the financial viability of their farms.
00:04:33
Tom Woolman
And if they are being forced to put birds outside, they know what the
Avian Flu's Impact on Holiday Turkey Supply
00:04:37
Tom Woolman
risks are. And actually the risk is on their shoulders, really. We all know how difficult... It is in terms of um getting bird flu insurance. And actually, even if you have got insurance, actually you have to look at the agreement agreement quite hard to actually work out what it will cover and what it won't cover.
00:04:56
Tom Woolman
So, yes, I just hope that the Welsh government get their act together, really, and and just get in line with England.
00:05:02
Tom Willings
yeah
00:05:03
Tom Woolman
and we can And we can act as one because eggs do eggs do cross our borders and and wild birds cross our borders as well.
00:05:10
Tom Willings
ah yeah For me, I think the thing that compounds the frustration is that you've had... um ah Experts, again, you know I'm talking about Gordon Hickman and and and now, you know a few weeks later, um Ian Brown, but Gordon Hickman was at the Poultry Network live conference saying to people before before it all kicked off, we think this looks like we're we're in for a tough time.
00:05:35
Tom Willings
that that That message has been reverberating around the trade. So undoubtedly raising the anxiety levels amongst the the farming community. And hey, presto, the experts were right.
00:05:46
Tom Willings
You know, the...
00:05:49
Tom Willings
you know projections are turning out to be accurate. what does it This changes so quickly. every Every day there's another one or two cases announced today, another in Pembrokeshire and um and one in Lancashire. um And you know we're up to the best part of 30 cases. i think it's four in Wales, as I said, 23 in England, one in one in Northern Ireland. It's um it's running away with it.
00:06:16
Tom Willings
So...
00:06:16
Tom Woolman
and And the turkeys as well. This is such a critical time for turkey producers. I ah guarantee within the next couple of days, if things carry on at the rate they are, there will be headline headlines about
EPIC Conference Highlights
00:06:29
Tom Woolman
turkey.
00:06:29
Tom Willings
Turkey shortages.
00:06:30
Tom Woolman
turkey shortages at christmas and and almost quite justifiably so we've we've already lost a good number of turkeys uh in these outbreaks i think when and we last discussed this subject we said that it hadn't really impacted broiler breeders or turkeys well it definitely has now um so
00:06:32
Tom Willings
o
00:06:47
Tom Willings
Yeah. You went to Epic this week. what What was the mood in the camp there? What was, you know, what was the the chat who I didn't go? So, you know, maybe you put you put put me on the put me on the spot or or rather put you on the spot.
00:06:55
Tom Woolman
you didn't no
00:07:00
Tom Willings
But yeah, who who were the voices talking? And and and in terms of ah AI, what were they saying?
00:07:06
Tom Woolman
um Well, so in terms of AI, everyone was very aware of the situation.
00:07:15
Tom Willings
Hmm.
00:07:15
Tom Woolman
Everyone's phone is going off at but nine o'clock in the evening with the with the latest outbreaks. Everyone really knows someone or has got some link to to an outbreak already. and And everyone is looking at the situation going forward and really wondering where we're going to end up come February or March.
00:07:37
Tom Woolman
Of course, Ian Brown spoke um at at the conference as well. um But I suppose in terms of there was there were plenty of positive things as well. That's what I'd say. It's it's certainly not all doom and gloom. Sometimes when farmers get together and and and agricultural people get together, it's a little bit doom and gloom. It certainly wasn't all doom and gloom at all. In fact, I think.
00:07:59
Tom Woolman
certainly at challenging times like this, people came together. In fact, a good example of that was the poultry person of the year, um was won by James Chalmers, who's a turkey producer, who's who's been hit with AI himself um and and really has has been very open about his experiences. So it was great for him to get that
Future Food Trends and Aesthetic Innovations
00:08:18
Tom Woolman
recognition. He runs quite ah quite a unique business really in the UK or has done. He's he's recently sold it.
00:08:26
Tom Woolman
um and also Young Poultry Person of the Year Hannah Cargill won that and partly in recognition of what she's done in terms of promoting women in in poultry and by setting up her group and trying to encourage networking and support amongst amongst women in poultry which is quite amazing really I think when you look back to Epic and and what that was well you must remember Tom you were there before before I was allowed in weren't you when you were
00:08:54
Tom Willings
It's been a few years since ah since I attended an epic, I have to say.
00:08:54
Tom Woolman
and you
00:08:59
Tom Willings
but
00:08:59
Tom Woolman
was it Was it all, was the dinner though, it was all men in suits smoking cigars?
00:09:02
Tom Willings
Yeah, oh yeah, black black tie and then you had you had the poultry meat dinner on one side and the egg dinner on the other. um yeah know that they Yeah, the dining was taken very seriously.
00:09:13
Tom Woolman
So the the nice change is that it's visible and a lot of people that go to events will see this. There are ah an awful lot more women in the industry and participating in all sorts of levels. And that's just great because it just makes it just, yeah it's it's just ah a brilliant thing. And it's a nice thing that I think even I've seen in in what is my relatively short so tenure in the poultry industry of 15 years or so.
00:09:38
Tom Woolman
um ah guess another highlight for me was, um Gwesson Davis was given a presentation and I really enjoyed listening to him because I've heard an awful lot about him from other people and and some of the the progress that he's made in a relatively short space of time.
00:09:47
Tom Willings
Mm-hmm.
00:09:52
Tom Woolman
So there was a yeah really good ah session on young people in the poultry industry and chaired by the by the brilliant Chloe Ryan. ah I think probably the presentation that seemed to seem to split opinion most.
00:10:06
Tom Woolman
um they had to The last presentation was by someone called a ah but dubbed a food futurologist, albeit um I think she'd given herself this title as ah as a bit of a savvy marketing tool.
00:10:17
Tom Willings
It's a tongue twister. A food futurologist.
00:10:20
Tom Woolman
Food futureologist. Yes.
00:10:21
Tom Willings
Yeah.
00:10:22
Tom Woolman
ah Her name was ah Dr. Morgan Gay. And she talked. It was it was amazing. I've never seen a presentation like it.
Impact of GLP-1 Drugs on Eating Habits
00:10:30
Tom Woolman
Talked for well over half an hour about what we thought it was going to be about food. But actually, as much as anything else, it seemed to be about aesthetic concepts.
00:10:41
Tom Woolman
and what people will be wearing and and what sort of environments they'd be surrounding themselves in. And she kept on banging on about how light, fluffy textures were going to be in and.
00:10:52
Tom Woolman
yeah and how air was going to be the the the the big new ingredient.
00:10:56
Tom Willings
Was she smoking a funny cigarette at the time?
00:10:56
Tom Woolman
ah
00:11:00
Tom Woolman
um I mean, she could have she could have had a, yeah, or like a cigarillo would have wouldve suited her. I mean, she was she was styled to the max. She looked like someone who had been paid to come and speak at a poultry conference.
00:11:11
Tom Woolman
She didn't look like someone that had just turned up. um so But I always think if you don't come away from a conference and you haven't, feel like you've been mildly offended by one of the of the papers, then probably the organisers haven't done their job correctly.
00:11:22
Tom Willings
Right.
00:11:25
Tom Woolman
And and i
00:11:26
Tom Willings
Well, we're talking about it, aren't we? I mean, there we go.
00:11:28
Tom Woolman
Yeah. and And speaking to people, some people thought it was a load of rubbish, but I tell you what, there were some other people as well who said that was, that was the best thing that that I heard.
00:11:29
Tom Willings
Job done.
00:11:36
Tom Woolman
And that's what you want.
00:11:36
Tom Willings
Yeah, marketeers scribbling furiously at how to get how to get more air into eggs.
00:11:37
Tom Woolman
Yeah.
00:11:40
Tom Woolman
yeah
00:11:43
Tom Woolman
Just blow. um
00:11:44
Tom Willings
Yeah.
00:11:45
Tom Woolman
ah The other thing that she mentioned, which I have heard mentioned before, and I think is a very interesting point is about the impact of drugs like a Zempic, GLP one drugs on eating habits.
00:11:58
Tom Woolman
Uh, ah in fact, I think there was another presentation as well at Epic that talked about this and the fact that these drugs are only being used by very small percentages at the moment, I think 4% of the population at the moment, but they are growing massively and the whole theme of the conference was poultry in 2050 and where are we going to be in 2050?
00:12:19
Tom Willings
yeah
00:12:19
Tom Woolman
What do things look like? And potentially it was predicted that 50% of the population could be using these drugs by the time we get to 2050
00:12:26
Tom Willings
Yeah. I've written articles about this actually already. And I i think, um you know, there will be 10 years time, there'll be charts doing the rounds, bar charts, line graphs that have got the point at which these drugs became mainstream. And we'll see You know, those sorts of numbers.
00:12:45
Tom Willings
The the the Nielsen's, Cantars of this world are already reporting, you know, the changes in in in sale, rates of consumption, and shifting dynamics on what people are buying and what they they'rere
00:12:53
Tom Woolman
Mm
00:12:57
Tom Willings
um yeah what they're buying instead, as it were. you know, as you say, only 4% as it stands, but kind of doubling doubling year on year on year.
00:13:08
Tom Woolman
hmm.
00:13:09
Tom Willings
This is, we're at the start of a wave, I would say on that.
00:13:12
Tom Woolman
Yes, it's transformed the Danish colony as well, hasn't it? I think the use of Zen pick is just.
00:13:16
Tom Willings
spot.
00:13:18
Tom Willings
You stop me in my tracks with your with your kind of international
00:13:18
Tom Woolman
Yeah.
Imported Eggs and Supply Issues
00:13:21
Tom Willings
insights at times.
00:13:22
Tom Willings
I'm i'm not ah i'm not up with my my Danish consumer habits. yeah You you you take take us to Europe, Tom.
00:13:27
Tom Woolman
Well, it's... Hmm.
00:13:29
Tom Willings
Let's let's um let's let's round off with with another story that's broken this and this week. And there's more on the on the Poultry Network website. We've got ah an article that goes out in the morning and um and and perhaps you and I will ah dive deeper into this in the in the week or two ahead.
00:13:45
Tom Willings
But um yeah, referring to Europe, And the yeah the the egg industry reporting or DEFRA reporting vast increase in volume of of of imported eggs um over the summer months, August and and July between them account for you know not far off two thirds of the entire 2024 volume.
00:14:07
Tom Willings
That's ah
00:14:08
Tom Woolman
Wow.
00:14:08
Tom Willings
you know that's the kind of degree of um increase in rate of of import. It's probably triple the the going rate in the months prior. So, yeah.
00:14:17
Tom Woolman
And what would normally happen with egg consumption over those summer months? Because sometimes there's a seasonal impact, isn't there? Would you see more eggs or fewer eggs consumed over the summer?
00:14:25
Tom Willings
you
00:14:25
Tom Woolman
Normally.
00:14:26
Tom Willings
So, so this we're we're kind of shooting from the hip here in terms of trying to to piece together, but you would say that the summer months would see ah would see a lull in consumption, you know whether that's because people
00:14:35
Tom Woolman
Hmm. Yeah, same with chicken quite often. You get the August august blues where people are going off and doing other things.
00:14:42
Tom Willings
Yeah. Or, ah you know, again, just just referring to eggs, if if consumption of eggs is predicated around ah breakfast and cooked breakfasts, then, you know, hotter weather probably leads to different different meal choices um combined with, you know, what you're talking about, a degree of an exodus.
00:15:03
Tom Willings
The flip of that is the imported egg wouldn't be going into um into retail as a fresh product, typically could be going into independent retail, but not the kind of supermarkets that we're most familiar with.
00:15:16
Tom Willings
um And so um they could be going into, or most likely going into processing and manufacturing. and And the increase could be down to um you know greater availability, a slight softening in the price somewhere um in in Europe and and processors UK processors accessing European egg and um deciding that now's the time to put more into storage, more into into stock because I've no doubt that the the you know the last three years has left
00:15:51
Tom Willings
um eggs in store and bearing in mind, you know even even fresh egg, but but stored for processing is gonna be
00:16:01
Tom Willings
refrigerated or or or held for a pretty long time. you know this is This is not the 28 day ruling. this you know You could have eggs in there for months. um And yeah i would have thought over the course of the last three years, processors will have pretty bare boards in terms of of storage.
00:16:18
Tom Woolman
Yeah. Yeah.
00:16:19
Tom Willings
So at some point, and there's that that that's got to be and that's got to be replaced. And of course, in the last few months, we've had um news of of UK processors either going into business with as kind of joint venture European businesses or selling up to European businesses.
00:16:37
Tom Woolman
yeah
00:16:40
Tom Willings
And you wonder whether or not ah those those deals have slightly opened the door and facilitated um and you know an increase in and import.
00:16:52
Tom Willings
We've had we've had you know a couple of... um you pretty big producers affected by bird flu, but the dates don't quite match up for that.
00:17:00
Tom Woolman
Yeah. Right. Hmm.
00:17:02
Tom Willings
So it's ah yeah, there's more there's more homework to be done in terms of trying to unpick exactly what's going on.
00:17:05
Tom Woolman
yeah
00:17:07
Tom Willings
But the but the just for context, um the last time the imports spiked to anything like this was was back in COVID times.
00:17:17
Tom Woolman
right
00:17:17
Tom Willings
And um I think at at their very peak, we saw 8.9 million dozen eggs imported in ah in ah in a month against a kind of typical run rate of, you know, two or three million.
00:17:30
Tom Woolman
Yeah.
00:17:30
Tom Willings
So a threefold increase.
00:17:30
Tom Woolman
So whereas, but that, that was demand, wasn't it? The demand, demand increased, whereas this is, is clearly a sign that supply is just, is just not quite keeping up. And I look at going back to the bird flu um situation and and looking at that, I, yeah, I worry about but how the situation might develop over the next six months or so.
00:17:43
Tom Willings
Yep.
00:17:50
Tom Willings
Yeah. To finish the point I was going to make is that we're we're basically we're talking about a rate of almost double that that single highest month um during the COVID time.
00:18:00
Tom Willings
So we've got two months sustained at double that level.
00:18:01
Tom Woolman
right
00:18:03
Tom Willings
It is.
Conclusion and Call for Government Action
00:18:05
Tom Willings
Yeah, it's definitely worthy of of another episode as we try and find some people who can unpick or help us understand exactly what's going on.
00:18:09
Tom Woolman
Yeah.
00:18:12
Tom Woolman
Yeah. Okay. But as you said, there is there's a bit of an article is there on the and the Poultry Network newsletter this week, I believe, to look into.
00:18:18
Tom Willings
Yeah, that comes out in, in, that's in tomorrow's. And then, um, yeah, just for anyone, anyone listening, who's wondering what's coming up, we've got, um we've got a great interview with, uh, with Aaron McKenna, head of, uh, broiler operations for Pilgrims Europe coming up.
00:18:33
Tom Willings
So watch out for that. Cause I think that will probably, um, probably go live next week, but, um, for now, let's just go back.
00:18:39
Tom Woolman
Yeah. We'll see. hopeful Hopefully we're not having to record too many more emergency late night episodes, but.
00:18:45
Tom Willings
I want to go and have a glass of wine really, but yeah, Welsh government, come on.
00:18:50
Tom Woolman
Yeah, yeah. Come on. Come on, Welsh Government. Well, who knows? Maybe if maybe if they they do bring in a housing order very quickly, we'll have to record another podcast with glasses of wine in hands saying, great, they've they've they've finally done it.
00:19:05
Tom Woolman
But let's see.
00:19:06
Tom Willings
Celebratory. Yeah, and indeed.
00:19:07
Tom Woolman
Let's see how long it takes. I'm sure it will help.
00:19:09
Tom Willings
Tom, have a good evening. and
00:19:10
Tom Woolman
All right.
00:19:10
Tom Willings
Everybody else, thank you for listening. And until next time.
00:19:14
Tom Woolman
Goodbye.