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Episode 435: Matchday Preview: SEMI FINAL LEG 1 VS MIDDLESBROUGH!
113 Plays10 days ago
Southampton – It's really crunch time now, the whole season boils down to this. Will we come out of the away leg with a lead? or just about intact?
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Transcript
Intro
Stevens' Fitness and Strategic Rest
00:23:26
DailySaintsPod
Do we think that Stevens like might have been fit enough to play at Preston and they just didn't risk it to specifically look towards building him up for this game?
00:23:37
DailySaintsPod
you're
00:23:38
Zak
potentially. We're not going to get told either way.
00:23:40
DailySaintsPod
right. no you're you're right
00:23:44
Zak
i would be surprised. But again, like the idea was that they they they wanted to win Preston and we did. and Were we able to do that with Yes.
00:23:54
Zak
So yeah, no big deal really. I still think that part ofly part of the reason that we we struggled with the game beforehand was because of the injury picked up in and i the But hey-ho, guess that's that.
00:23:56
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:24:06
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, indeed. but You're right. if If he's fit enough to play, he'll come back in is is probably as simple as it is for me as well.
Team Selection Strategy and Secrecy
00:24:15
DailySaintsPod
Tonda, of course, with his you know kind of cryptic, cagey response of i will have a full strength team.
00:24:25
DailySaintsPod
Not really mentioning any specifics, but like you say, he doesn't like to give too much away for the other team to prepare for. Right, moving up the pitch then. Flynn Downs back from suspension. You've got to think that he comes straight back in, right?
00:24:39
Zak
Yeah, it's go to be Flynn and Yander, surely.
00:24:41
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:24:41
Zak
Like, it's not even...
00:24:42
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. i agree, actually. you I just don't think it's really even a discussion. I think the form that Yander's been in has been too good to ignore. Flynn, Yander, it just seems like...
00:24:51
Zak
Plus, Shea Charles needs to come on in, like, the 80th minute score the Weldy.
00:24:52
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:24:55
Zak
That's, like, just what he does at this point.
00:24:55
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. Yeah, that's just his MO. You're right. what What great position to be in, though, for that. Yeah, it to me, that picks itself.
00:25:04
DailySaintsPod
But again, blessed in that position where you couldn't see an argument for any of the players, apart from probably Romelu, who I suspect we have seen the last of.
00:25:13
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:25:13
Zak
Yeah, I expected him to come out of the Preston game and obviously they decided not to do that.
00:25:17
Zak
So I'm guessing that that is kind of it.
00:25:19
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. But yeah, you could see an argument for all four of them and probably wouldn't be too disgruntled to see any combination of it. But in this instance, Flynn and Yander seem to be the the obvious choice. And then what?
Injury Concerns and Player Options
00:25:34
DailySaintsPod
The number 10 position. So, I mean, Azaz was out for the Preston game, presumably because of the the taping we saw on his knee. Do you think that he comes back in or do you think we go with Archer or or maybe Natsuki?
00:25:50
Zak
I wouldn't be sp surprised if we, we you know, Tonda alluded to two strikers. wouldn't be surprised if we do just because of the fact that if they are planning for basically the same game last time around, again, why would you not?
00:26:04
Zak
I think if they're all if everything, if this narrative and all of their build-up is around Azaz, if you remove Azaz from the equation...
00:26:13
Zak
like makes life easier, right, to deal with. It makes it all easier to to kind of tackle. And I would be surprised if, yeah, maybe we do put two strikers. Maybe we have, like, Stuart and Laren up front together, you know, or your favorite of sort of, like, Archer and Laren or someone like that.
00:26:33
Zak
But yeah, I don't know. And if yeah, if if he if he he's been struggling with injury pretty much towards the latter end of the season, right? And there's been a lot of conversation around for how he's sort of been playing through a lot of it.
00:26:46
Zak
Would you not want to give him the few extra days to have him in the second leg and maybe keep him on the bench and bring him on if things get crazy? But again, I feel like if so much of if so much is all around this kind of narrative, if you remove that narrative, it's a different game.
00:26:55
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, see I can see that.
Tonda's Tactical Decisions
00:27:04
Zak
Maybe?
00:27:04
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, kind of makes it flat. so So what do you think? You think Archer play instead of like the number 10 role that we've seen him and Azaz in, you think you kind of push him into more like a false nine to play behind you know the striker?
00:27:09
Zak
Maybe? i ab
00:27:18
Zak
Yeah, potentially.
00:27:21
DailySaintsPod
Okay, I could see that. I'd take it. Look, I mean, at the end of the day, this segment to some degree is a moot point because we have the full faith in Tonda regardless of what team line-up looks like.
00:27:34
Zak
Yeah, but it's it's still fun, right?
00:27:36
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, definitely.
00:27:36
Zak
And obviously, Leo Sienza, so...
00:27:37
DailySaintsPod
Look, that's... Yeah, I mean, look, Leo starts, I think, probably Fellows on the right.
00:27:44
Zak
I'd agree to that. I'd say that Fellows has caused a nuisance the last couple of games. And if Matsky's not been out injured, maybe Matsky comes on later as a reintroduction.
00:27:48
DailySaintsPod
Hmm.
00:27:52
DailySaintsPod
Hmm.
00:27:53
Zak
I don't really think that he starts, but I could be wrong. Again, I have full faith in in Tonda.
00:27:57
DailySaintsPod
you
00:28:00
Zak
I don't think we should see just like Shea Charles and right back again this game.
00:28:05
DailySaintsPod
No, what but I think that, I mean, that was what it was, right? That was very clearly a decision to rest, give Bree at least a bit of rest. know we saw him come on later in the game, but, you know, to save him for this.
Striker Selection Debate
00:28:20
DailySaintsPod
And then Stryker, that's the big question mark, right? That's, my pick is probably Laren. What do you think?
00:28:28
Zak
Yeah, more because of his physicality, but ultimately in both games, like like that they're scoring when they play. Right?
00:28:35
DailySaintsPod
yeah
00:28:37
Zak
Well, Claren has been sensational for us this season, considering he came with, you know, a record of, like, what, woman in wanted, like, 10 or something ridiculous, and everyone was kind of, and then, obviously, again, i i love the guy ever since the bullet header as a way of introducing himself to St Mary's, right?
00:28:37
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:28:46
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:28:56
Zak
But at the same time, Ross Stewart has come back to fitness. He was a key part of, I think, potentially why Will still lost his job, to be honest, him going out injured.
00:29:04
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:29:05
Zak
because up to that point he was he was scoring. And yeah, so I don't really mind who who starts. It's going to be dependent on who is going to be available for the second leg, or it will be a mix of match.
00:29:17
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:29:17
Zak
45 for one, 45 for another.
00:29:17
DailySaintsPod
60-30, where they both end up with sort across the
00:29:19
Zak
Even both fresh for the final.
00:29:23
Zak
Yeah.
00:29:26
DailySaintsPod
the board
00:29:27
Zak
But I would say if you're but you're right, if if your prediction of it being a potentially scrappy game, nerve-wracking sort of nervous game, having the physicality of him will be incredibly useful.
00:29:37
DailySaintsPod
the Yeah, I i think that that's the the play for me. But you're right. We talk a lot in these segments, particularly about like how blessed we are with squad depth, specifically in the middle of the
Squad Depth and Strategic Formations
00:29:49
DailySaintsPod
park.
00:29:50
DailySaintsPod
But you've got to jump up and shout out. I think I mentioned the stat on the pod, but in goals per minute in the championship, we've got number one and number two. So...
00:30:01
Zak
having Having two strikers that can score goals again is it's just a revelation.
00:30:04
DailySaintsPod
Crazy.
00:30:04
Zak
After so long, after like so long, and even, you know, admittedly, obviously Adam Armstrong still finishes as like one of our top scorers, I think.
00:30:05
DailySaintsPod
yeah
00:30:13
Zak
And like, you know, to an extent, he's a miss, but not as much as we probably thought he would have been. And after last season where we like just wanted a striker to score a goal at any point,
00:30:26
Zak
any point would have been nice we now have that and yeah
00:30:29
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. do you think Do you think there's a world where obviously we like you alluded to having two strikers and playing like Archer in that kind of hybrid role. Do you think there's a world where actually maybe we see Stewart and Laren on the pitch together and and we just like completely go in a way that they wouldn't expect?
00:30:47
DailySaintsPod
Because because if Laren is a handful to deal with it it's going to cause the defense problems, think of how much space he's going to free up for Stewart. And if they're worried about Stewart causing their problems in behind...
00:30:58
DailySaintsPod
think of how much that frees up Laring, right?
00:31:01
Zak
Yeah, you could easily do that. And again, like if all of their plans are built around Azaz, then it doesn't really matter.
00:31:03
DailySaintsPod
Just go oh
00:31:08
DailySaintsPod
Just go, like, absolutely balls to the wall with a 4-2-4 for the first time in the playoffs. I mean, it is it's almost crazy enough that it does have Tonda written all over it.
00:31:19
DailySaintsPod
Like...
00:31:20
Zak
Yeah, it depends. But i I wouldn't be upset if that's what we see as long as it works, I guess. And yeah, that's kind of where I'm at.
00:31:27
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:31:30
Zak
Like, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing both of on the pitch at the same time at some point. I wouldn't be surprised if we see both of them on the pitch and Archer at the same time towards the end of the game.
00:31:34
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:31:38
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:31:39
Zak
really depends on how it's going and how the momentum of the game is, is right?
00:31:42
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:31:45
Zak
Like, If we go like 1-0 or 2-0 down quite early, it might be a different story. But if we we start to kind of score and start to you know get the advantage, they'll want to try and extend that advantage as
Survival vs Aggression: Tactical Focus
00:31:57
Zak
much as possible. Yeah.
00:31:58
DailySaintsPod
I mean, look, at the end of the day, the the actual name of the game, if we're being realistic for this, it's and it's not something that Tonda's going to be saying or probably even thinking because I just don't think it's how his brain works at all.
00:32:14
DailySaintsPod
But for this first leg over 90 minutes, the only real target is survive, right? Doesn't matter.
00:32:22
Zak
I don't necessarily agree. you You go to this game, you go to their backyard and you win, he beat them 5-0, right? And then you come back to ours. then you coast the rest of the 90 minutes. I don't know if i I agree with the idea that what you've got to do is survive until we get to the second leg. The second leg being at home is an advantage that we got from being as high as we were in the in the table, right?
00:32:47
Zak
It's not, in my opinion, a a reason to down-talls in the first leg. And I don't think that that's what you're...
00:32:54
DailySaintsPod
Oh, no.
00:32:54
Zak
That's not what you're implying. I get that. But also, it's like you are coming to it with a very... like This is literally what we need to do. And maybe Tom do the same, but also that isn't the way that we've been able to go on this run.
00:33:03
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:33:09
Zak
We haven't been able to keep the momentum that we've kept by playing games tactically.
00:33:09
DailySaintsPod
No.
00:33:14
Zak
it's like you know It's like people that tactical vote. yeah It's great theory. cares?
00:33:20
DailySaintsPod
No, look,
00:33:20
Zak
I want to see you pick what you want. I want to see you score and win the game.
00:33:24
DailySaintsPod
I don't think that that's the mentality that we as a team are going to come into the game with at all. I don't think that's going to be the strategy.
00:33:30
Zak
But if it ends 0-0, we're not going to be sad, right?
00:33:30
DailySaintsPod
I don't think that's going to go. But, yes, taking taking stepping back from that, that is that's what needs to happen, right?
00:33:33
Zak
That's what you're saying.
00:33:40
DailySaintsPod
As long as we're not...
00:33:42
Zak
Okay.
00:33:42
DailySaintsPod
Maybe even... I mean, even if we're 3-0 down, I fancy us, Ursa Mary's. If we're 4-0 or 5-0 down, that it you know it's it's a mountain to climb. So survive is the name of the game. And like you say, that's not the way we're going to play the game at all.
00:33:59
DailySaintsPod
But that's...
00:33:59
Zak
well What boy if he does something really strange he goes five at the back and we all cry?
00:34:05
DailySaintsPod
Mate, in Tonda we trust. that's Until he gives us a reason not to believe in him, whatever he says, I'm fine with.
00:34:15
DailySaintsPod
if if If he thinks that five at the back is what we need for this game, then fine, I agree.
00:34:15
Zak
Cool.
00:34:23
Zak
Okay. Interesting.
00:34:24
DailySaintsPod
Mate, I've told you, honestly, if he decided to play McCarthy up front at Wembley,
00:34:24
Zak
Interesting.
00:34:30
DailySaintsPod
he's got my buy-in, you know, i'm there with him. I am fully behind Tonda.
00:34:36
Zak
yeah yeah
00:34:37
DailySaintsPod
At this point, he, he has earned the right for, for that level of crazy decision, right? Like, like he wouldn't do it unless it's part of a plan.
00:34:44
Zak
Yeah, for sure, for sure.
00:34:48
DailySaintsPod
So yeah. All right, mate, look, the The little summary and spiel of the stats and the historic form, as as we all love it, mate.
00:34:59
Zak
Sure.
00:35:00
Zak
What for it?
00:35:01
DailySaintsPod
It is as close as it comes in basically any metric you can measure.
Match Predictions and Statistics
00:35:08
DailySaintsPod
Okay? So eight matches in the data set that I've got in front of me, three wins for Borough, three wins for us, two draws.
00:35:19
DailySaintsPod
Uh, you go to form this season points per game, 1.74 for both teams. Obviously we, we finished on the same, you you know, basically the same points.
00:35:30
DailySaintsPod
It's, it's on 80 points, literally on the same points. We are only ahead of them by one goal difference, right?
00:35:34
Zak
Yes.
00:35:38
DailySaintsPod
It is as, as down the middles, it comes in, in basically every statistic. Yeah, their their home form is is pretty good.
00:35:51
DailySaintsPod
You know, five one win at what at home to Watford, 1-0 Sheffield Wednesday. They did lose to Pompey in that crazy scenario, right, where Pompey managed to get six points from them this season with a total of two shots on target for the entirety of it.
00:36:07
Zak
Oh yeah, I remember that. That's good.
00:36:09
DailySaintsPod
So, yeah, I mean, it's going to
Emotional Stakes and Match Unpredictability
00:36:14
DailySaintsPod
be tight. It's going to be a tough game. Look, the the AI analysis of all of those stats have come in, and it suggests that actually the bet would be a double chance bet with a Middlesbrough win or a draw.
00:36:28
Zak
Interesting.
00:36:28
DailySaintsPod
The home strength and a balanced head-to-head profile means that that will be the safest route because the home edge will take it. But the scoreline feel is 2-1 to Middlesbrough looking plausible.
00:36:42
DailySaintsPod
So...
00:36:44
Zak
I like the entirety of this season, 46 games, it's been like once or twice it's gone that the scoreline won't be 2-1.
00:36:52
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, that seems to be...
00:36:53
Zak
That's it.
00:36:55
DailySaintsPod
Look, I mean, 2-1 is a common scoreline in football. I don't know what to say, mate. It's hedging its bets.
00:36:59
Zak
Yeah, no, I know...
00:37:01
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. What about you, Zach? How do you think this one is going to play out?
00:37:08
Zak
Like maybe 2-2. I think both teams will score. i think that we will want to go in not at any disadvantage. And I think we'll we'll find a way. But I also think that they are going to be at home. There is what, like 2,000 fan allocation.
00:37:22
DailySaintsPod
Hmm.
00:37:22
Zak
It is going to be hard. They are fired up for it. I wouldn't be surprised if they go 2-0 up and then we somehow scrape it back 2-2. I don't know where those goals are coming from. know that's going to be your next question because quite frankly, they could come from anyone in our team at the moment. And that's the absolute beauty of it. At some point in either leg, as much as I've tried to downplay the story of Azaz, it would be nice to see Azaz score against them just because of how much stick they've given him, the fact that they were basically trying to take him out most of the previous game. And, you know, just, it would just be nice to have our own little narrative this season that isn't,
00:37:58
Zak
we we fired a guy who we thought was going to be great and replaced him with somebody we thought was going to be bad who turned out to be, like, really good, right?
Season's Context and Leadership Confidence
00:38:06
Zak
That's basically, like, Salam season is that, oh, man, we've got all this plot, we've built a promotion-chasing squad.
00:38:07
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:38:12
Zak
Why are we 21st? Oh, don't worry, some gots like random crazy German guy in his 30s has managed to pull it back, and now we're 19 games unbeaten. Like, that is currently our storyline.
00:38:23
Zak
It would be nice to see couple of additional plot points, right? And so, yeah, that's that's that's kind of my vibe is I reckon 2-2, I don't think it's going to be nil-nil like it was against West Brom.
00:38:28
DailySaintsPod
Hmm.
00:38:34
Zak
I think that that game back, you know, couple of years ago now, they wanted to shut us out.
00:38:35
DailySaintsPod
Hmm.
00:38:40
Zak
And yeah, so but that's where I'm at. What about you, bud?
00:38:44
DailySaintsPod
I don't know. i really don't. really Every week I come into this section and I think that I should really think about it before this section. But I don't. I just have to go with what I feel at the time. And I don't know. Part of me thinks maybe like let's 2-1 Saints.
00:39:03
DailySaintsPod
look, let's... say two one saints
00:39:05
Zak
Thank you.
00:39:06
DailySaintsPod
yeah look next's i think that I think that we take an early lead, you know. I just think we're going to... I think that they're going to come and try and throw everything at it quick. And we're just going to break one of those attacks and just score kind of out of nowhere.
00:39:25
DailySaintsPod
let's have a Sienza goal to kick us off and then then probably a second before they get one back I think Laren to score it let's go with that that's why i think take a not a comfortable lead but a lead into St Mary's and fire ourselves up for what you know promises to be a sensational night either way really
00:39:51
Zak
Yeah, i think you're right. Sounds good.
00:39:56
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:39:56
Zak
I think that's quite level-headed of you, to be honest. You didn't you didn't immediately switch. And what i was expecting was you to just look up and go, 5-0.
00:40:04
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, look, mate, look, the...
00:40:06
Zak
That's for next game, right? You've got to keep one of the crazy ones in the bag.
00:40:10
DailySaintsPod
the eternal optimism is there, but it's balanced out by just the pure sense of almost like dread. Uh, that's the problem with being so emotionally invested, isn't it? you feel the the goods and the bads.
00:40:25
DailySaintsPod
Uh, I think I've told the story on the the podcast before, but like, One of the times I've most enjoyed watching a game of football was when I went to Anfield to watch Liverpool Spurs because like there was just no emotional investment in it. was just like, oh, this is nice to just watch football. and Yeah, it's but it's the pain that makes the joy worth it, isn't it? like I'm going to be nervous all the way until...
00:40:50
DailySaintsPod
probably until the end of the 90 minutes at St. Mary's, if truth be told. And then, you know, potentially a whole nother set of nerves kicks in then. So, yeah, just balancing it out and and hoping for the best. But like I say, that the anything, the the the name of the game is survival, realistically. So anything we achieve that does that is is good.
00:41:17
DailySaintsPod
All good stuff.
00:41:18
Zak
Yeah, man.
00:41:19
DailySaintsPod
Right, well, look, that is all we've got time for today and then some. So thank you so much for joining us and thank you for listening. Let us know your thoughts, your score predictions, how you think the game is going to play out. you think it's going to be one of those all-time classic championship matchups or is it going to be a nervy, cagey affair? with not a lot to separate the two teams.
Community Feedback and Support Journey
00:41:45
DailySaintsPod
Let us know on the socials or in the comments. We are Daily Saints Pod absolutely everywhere. X, Blue Sky, TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube. Hit us up and let us know. We love hearing from you and cannot wait to see what you think about the actual crunch time of the season as it all comes down to this.
00:42:09
DailySaintsPod
Whatever happens, though, we will be here after the game to talk about it and to start thinking about what comes next. But until then, have a wonderful weekend.
00:42:22
DailySaintsPod
And most importantly, come on, you saints!