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Episode 427: Matchday Preview: CRUNCH TIME AT HOME!
1 Playsin 1 day
Southampton – And it all comes down to this. 90 minutes to win to earn another 90 minutes. Crunch time. We held them off at Riverside, now the atmosphere builds towards the most important game of our season... so far.
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Transcript
Episode Introduction: Importance of the Game
00:00:13
DailySaintsPod
Hello and welcome back to episode 437 of the Daily Saints pod. It is crunch time as it all comes down to the last potential last 90 minutes to get us one more shot at promotion.
Confidence Amid Media Noise
00:00:30
DailySaintsPod
Zach, how are you feeling?
00:00:35
Zak
Yeah, man. I'm feeling pretty confident going into it, to be perfectly honest. There's been a lot of noise, as we're all aware. We talked about a lot of that noise. We're probably going to try and do our best to not talk about this episode, because, like man, there are so many journalists and so many people arguing that you can like look out online that are
Excitement and Reminiscing about Past Semifinals
00:00:53
Zak
covering it. We covered it pretty extensively in our match review.
00:00:58
Zak
So let's like talk about the actual football that's coming up, Greg, because I'm excited because it's at St Mary's. The last time we had a playoff semifinal there, it went very, very well.
00:01:10
DailySaintsPod
Mmm.
00:01:18
DailySaintsPod
Mmm.
00:01:20
Zak
We did not absorb the best atmosphere of all time. And I remember hugging a complete random stranger. Just the greatest day, and
Home Record and Fan Dynamics
00:01:28
Zak
we get to do it again. It's going to good.
00:01:30
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, mate, I am so excited. The atmosphere, especially with all the other stuff that we're not going to talk about going on, it just feels like feels like the atmosphere is going to be hot and spicy and wild and fired up.
00:01:39
Zak
yeah
00:01:51
DailySaintsPod
And I'm just, I'm really ready for it. And I think the the players will be too. I think that You know, we we finished the first leg stronger, and I think that we can go on to build from that.
00:02:03
Zak
We're
Reflecting on Past Defeats and Current Optimism
00:02:06
Zak
at home.
00:02:06
DailySaintsPod
You know, we were at home.
00:02:08
Zak
We haven't, like, you know, as to how long is it, when was the last we lost there? Like, however, how, like, this year? We lost there this year? Yes.
00:02:19
DailySaintsPod
We must have done, surely. i don't know. I will look up in the background. But you yeah you're right. It's just going to be isn't it?
00:02:30
DailySaintsPod
like It's Mary's.
00:02:31
Zak
Yes.
00:02:31
DailySaintsPod
amazon Fully sold out. some Mary's with the Middlesbrough fans only given the the literal minimum that we could possibly give them in in terms of their allocation.
00:02:46
DailySaintsPod
It was just... Yeah. the It's going to be really good. I genuinely cannot
Strategizing for a Strong Start
00:02:53
DailySaintsPod
wait. The last time we lost at home, Zach, was in January.
00:02:57
DailySaintsPod
It was to Hull.
00:02:58
Zak
Oh, that checks out.
00:02:59
DailySaintsPod
It was to Hull of all teams.
00:03:00
Zak
That checks out.
00:03:14
DailySaintsPod
I don't It's it's going to be really good. but There's going to be a lot of hype. We're going get the same boost of energy to start the game that Middlesbrough had at the start of the home leg, right?
00:03:27
DailySaintsPod
We're going to come out hot. We're going to come out strong. we're going to hit the ground. And hopefully we can just bang three goals in the first eight minutes and cruise and enjoy the atmosphere for the rest of the night.
00:03:36
Zak
Yeah, if we could put away the chances that Middlesbrough had in the first leg, then yeah, it would be much better game. And like, if we can recreate that West Brom game, like that West Brom game was like, I remember West Brom scored at the end, right? No one noticed.
00:03:54
Zak
Because by that point, we'd already started celebrating.
00:03:54
DailySaintsPod
Hmm. Hmm.
00:03:56
Zak
you know It was Will Smallbone getting an opportunity to to score in that game as well. It was just it was just an incredible, incredible night. And yeah, we get a chance to do that all over again. And you know there has been the added, as you pointed out, spice tension, whatever you want to call it, around...
Controversial Team Status and Home Game Impact
00:04:13
Zak
what's been going on. And ultimately, if we have to be the pantomime villain to everybody, then that's fine. I guess we'll we'll we'll show them what it's like to turn up to the pantomime villain stadium.
00:04:25
Zak
It's just really weird to be like Man United, mate. I've never experienced this in my life. Like, to be fair, i kind of have, because it I'm an NFL fan as well, and I'm a Chiefs fan, and they're universally hated.
00:04:36
Zak
But it's just so weird to feel it in my, like, small hometown. But maybe we just embrace it a little bit.
00:04:40
DailySaintsPod
Oh, it's a different kind of hate than that. That's like hate because of success and hate because of mainstream. we what we've What we've kind of had cast upon us with this scenario is closer to like a Millwall, right?
00:04:58
DailySaintsPod
they They think that no one likes it.
00:04:58
Zak
why why people why people dislike Millwall or
Performing Under Pressure at Home
00:05:01
Zak
Marseille right like you i i I've never really experienced it but well yeah actually you're right Leeds did do this beforehand yes
00:05:02
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. Well, only years Specifically Leeds, right? Like Leeds did exactly the same thing
00:05:14
Zak
and this
00:05:14
DailySaintsPod
thing. But what that means, but that noise goes away in our home stadium, mate, and all of the noise is going to be us and all of the Saints fans are fired up for this incredible occasion.
00:05:20
Zak
yes
00:05:25
DailySaintsPod
And, yeah you know, we've we've felt it at St. Mary's this season in that Arsenal game, right? the difference it makes to the team as well.
00:05:37
DailySaintsPod
And...
00:05:37
Zak
none
00:05:39
DailySaintsPod
you know, you say if we can put away some of the, you know, if it's the same kind of game that we saw in the in the first leg, that if we can put away some of those chances, would be all right. And you know what?
Key Players to Watch
00:05:51
DailySaintsPod
I'd back any of our team to do that. We have two of the the top two goals per minute strikers in the league from from the 46-game season. So...
00:06:05
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, I think that, you know, outside of that, we've got Harwa Bellis, who's happy to pop in, jump in with a header, what, he gets seven goals this season, which is ridiculous, or Manning with a free kick, or Leo with just a moment of magic.
00:06:15
Zak
Yep.
00:06:20
DailySaintsPod
We've got
00:06:20
Zak
Well, Shay Charles from the halfway line.
00:06:24
DailySaintsPod
We've got so many potential outlets to put that chance away in the team, but I've got no doubt that we will do that.
00:06:35
DailySaintsPod
and And I don't think I am confident. I joked and said, let's put three goals in and eight minutes and just celebrate the night away. That's the dream scenario, but I'm not silly enough to believe that's how the game plays out.
00:06:46
Zak
Yeah.
00:06:47
DailySaintsPod
It is going to be a tough game. Middlesbrough
Acknowledging Middlesbrough's Quality
00:06:51
DailySaintsPod
are where they are because they're a good team. And like across the entire season, you know, arguably it's stalemate with advantage then because
00:07:02
DailySaintsPod
like they've beaten us what twice across season, once decisively at their place, but across the 46 games, you know, stalemate, completely inseparable by one goal goal difference.
00:07:15
DailySaintsPod
That means that we're two teams of very similar quality, right? Like...
00:07:19
Zak
Yeah, it's not it's not like when we played West Brom. We beat them, don't know if both games, but know we definitely beat one of them. And on top of that, they they kind of felt lucky to be in the playoffs, right?
00:07:27
DailySaintsPod
Hmm.
00:07:30
Zak
It wasn't like a fifth place that was dropping down from second. It was like a we managed to pip a playoff spot and we're just happy to be here.
00:07:36
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
Playoff Strategy and Lineup Speculations
00:07:38
Zak
So it it does create a very, very different dynamic.
00:07:38
DailySaintsPod
Hmm.
00:07:41
Zak
But as we've both discussed, it is it is at home where... you know, we are a very, very different team. Not that we looked at the first 45 minutes against them in their backyard, but again, it was like,
00:07:52
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, and that that's what leads to the concern, right? Is that we are also a team that's capable of that kind of performance on occasion.
00:07:56
Zak
yeah
00:08:01
DailySaintsPod
and And if we start the game like that and they decide to put away a couple of their chances, suddenly it becomes a very difficult situation.
00:08:13
DailySaintsPod
and very hard to fight back. And I still wouldn't bet against us fighting back. We've seen our ability as a team to do that all season and long. But yeah, I mean, I'm still confident about the game.
00:08:27
DailySaintsPod
I just need to put across that it's not like arrogance, like we're going to storm it. It's still going to be a tricky affair for sure.
00:08:37
Zak
Yeah, I agree. it's It's going to be... it's I think it will probably be harder than the last one, but I also still have faith that we will, you know, put in a good shift and usually that's a good outcome.
00:08:49
Zak
And what kind of Saints fans would we be if we were like, yeah, we're just obviously expecting to lose at home in a second.
00:08:54
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:08:55
Zak
Like the whole how the reward that we get for coming as high as we did is, you know, exactly that.
00:09:01
DailySaintsPod
The advantage of that home fixture. Right, mate, let's let's talk about lineups. These playoff semifinals, being as close to each other as they are, presents kind of a unique and interesting challenge, right? Almost becomes like a game of chess about who plays where when.
00:09:21
DailySaintsPod
How many changes from Saturday's lineup do you think we see?
00:09:27
Zak
I'm not really sure because it's the same thing when we like have Team Saturday and we have Team Tuesday, right?
Tactical Lineup Considerations
00:09:32
Zak
Which, as much as I hated that you started establishing that towards the end of the season, unfortunately, it was quite accurate. So, you know, would you see Ross Stewart starting because Kyle Lahren started? Maybe.
00:09:42
Zak
Would you see Cienzo play every minute of football? Probably.
00:09:44
DailySaintsPod
100%. Yeah.
00:09:45
Zak
Would you see, you know, Manning play every minute of football? Probably. If Stevens is fit, maybe. i just don't i don't know what's going on with him. I have a feeling that his injury is more longer term, especially considering the fact they keep saying that he's going to be available and everyone's available, but Wood started. Because you'd expect, big you know, arguably the biggest games of our season, unless we manage to make it to the final, you'd expect our club captain to start if he was fit.
00:10:10
Zak
So I have a feeling that he isn't.
00:10:10
DailySaintsPod
hundred percent
00:10:13
Zak
And, you know, Bree is going to start, right?
00:10:13
DailySaintsPod
yeah
00:10:16
Zak
So in the middle, we're we're blessed. you You probably have Flynn down, start again, and Kasper Yander, because Yander's, you know, absolutely doing it. Fellows or Matsky is kind of maybe another one where maybe we switch it out, potentially to have Fellows come on later.
00:10:30
Zak
And, yeah, like, I don't know if they would swap out Zaz really at this point. Do you give Archer a go Zaz?
00:10:37
DailySaintsPod
i do I don't know, because they they managed to keep him reasonably quiet at the Middlesbrough.
00:10:43
Zak
Well, that was one of my problems that I expected anyway.
00:10:44
DailySaintsPod
m
00:10:45
Zak
Like, they know how that he...
00:10:45
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:10:46
Zak
Of all players, he they know how he plays because he played for them.
00:10:48
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, absolutely.
00:10:49
Zak
So it was bizarre that we kind of chose that anyway, especially where, you know, we we spent so much so long debating whether or not we played two strikers or potentially Archer behind Lahren or what, and then it ended up just being pretty much a similar lineup to when we last played and lost to Middlesbrough, bar the fact that we had a different striker a different goalkeeper.
00:10:49
DailySaintsPod
And...
00:11:13
Zak
Yeah.
00:11:16
DailySaintsPod
I think the answer to my question is two changes. I think that Ross Stewart will start instead of Laren, and I think that Matske will start instead of Fellows.
00:11:28
Zak
yeah
00:11:28
DailySaintsPod
And I think that, like say, you give Leo every available minute to him because he is, you know, that sort of player that can make the difference.
00:11:38
Zak
hopefully it's going to be every available minute and not the last we've seen of him, considering he's also won the players player of the season and the fans player of the season.
00:11:47
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, double scoop.
00:11:47
Zak
And, you know, he has some crazy, you know, some some crazy kind of stats that go behind him for this season. And as we already know, many people sniffing around and, you know, promotion gives us the best chance of keeping him.
00:12:00
Zak
But we'll just have to see.
00:12:00
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, absolutely. But other than that, I think it it stays much for muchness. You kind of, like say, if Stephens is fit in time, which seems unlikely, then he starts. But other than that, the the team picks itself. I mean, we had a whole week break before these two games, and it's just not the period of the season where rotation is really what you're aiming for, to be honest. I think that...
00:12:25
DailySaintsPod
Matsky offers something different on the right wing than fellows. I think that they're two very different profiles of player. And so what that means is different questions will be asked of that borough defense.
00:12:37
DailySaintsPod
So I think starting here makes sense. And I think the same thing of Stuart and Laren, right? I think the, although closer in profile, they still offer different things. And to be honest, like you said in the the review, Laren didn't really manage to get a look in,
00:12:54
DailySaintsPod
at Borough, but Stuart came on and made an impact. And, you know, if we start Stuart, it might just turn out the same, where Stuart doesn't manage to get stuck in for that first 60 minutes and then Laren comes off the bench and and scores or something. But...
00:13:08
DailySaintsPod
I think that it's nice that they're similar enough that we can kind of use them interchangeably, but also provide that something different that, that can cause problems for the defense. so they're the only two places I expect to see change though.
00:13:24
DailySaintsPod
I still think our best midfield is Yander and Flynn. So I don't see why change it, which is a shame because I would still say that Shea Charles is one of our better players.
00:13:28
Zak
and
00:13:35
DailySaintsPod
It's just that it doesn't quite quite fit in. I don't think that there's a benefit against, especially the shape that
Lineup Flexibility and Bench Strength
00:13:42
DailySaintsPod
Middlesbrough play with their kind of three at the back. you you can't afford that extra body in the middle of the park to bring him in instead of one of the wide players. so But also that that gives the, like we've seen, the the ability to bring a player of his quality off the bench. And he, among other players, has shown that he's more than capable of making that impact if you bring him on.
00:14:07
Zak
Yeah, no, I agree. like Again, like pretty much we both have similar thoughts, but we probably think the the lineup is. How come you think Matsky over Fela is just of interest?
00:14:18
DailySaintsPod
I just i think that just think that if he's fit based on what he has brought to the team so far in in the season as a whole, but like over the last 10 games, if you look at Matski's contributions and Fellow's contributions...
Opponent Strategy Analysis
00:14:38
DailySaintsPod
Maskey just brings something different.
00:14:39
DailySaintsPod
He's definitely more of a threat toward the actual goal. Obviously, Fellows is is excellent at finding the assist.
00:14:45
Zak
He's a nuisance, his fellows, right?
00:14:48
DailySaintsPod
And he yeah, he'll run at them and cause them all sorts of mischief. But he didn't really get the opportunity really to to get that too many times, right?
00:14:59
DailySaintsPod
A couple of times in the second half before he came off. But I just think... Matzki, yeah, Matzki scored and has that in him, but it's just it's just a different headache, right?
00:15:06
Zak
Matt's also scored this season.
00:15:14
DailySaintsPod
And to to be able to play Matzki for 60, 65 minutes and and put up with that kind of physical, more willing to cut inside option of Matzki and put himself about and rotate about, he likes to to drift into the middle as well.
00:15:31
DailySaintsPod
and then potentially have fellows off the bench who is always going to be direct and down the wing just it's different enough that one playing them on opposite parts of that change benefits both of them i think and i just think in this case you know just flip the script start with matski and bring fellows on and that's likely to be the effective part but
00:15:46
Zak
Okay.
00:15:55
Zak
okay Makes sense.
00:15:57
DailySaintsPod
which which is a really long-winded way of saying, I don't know, just the vibe I get is that's what we'll go with, to be honest, mate.
00:16:04
Zak
it There it is. Again, we're a very, very vibes-based podcast, as most of our frequent listeners will know, right?
00:16:12
DailySaintsPod
But yeah.
00:16:13
Zak
So why do we believe this? don't know. just kind of feels that way. and to be honest, as as the season's gone on, we've kind of gotten better at those predictions than anywhere near the first.
00:16:17
DailySaintsPod
Hmm.
00:16:22
DailySaintsPod
Hmm.
00:16:23
Zak
But then I think that was because Will still very quickly showed he had no idea who his best XI is, whereas Tomler seems to have in mind a at least spine of the team that he definitely likes to play with, right?
00:16:34
DailySaintsPod
Hmm.
00:16:35
DailySaintsPod
Definitely. And, and
00:16:36
Zak
yeah
Home Advantage and Setting Expectations
00:16:37
DailySaintsPod
from like the Burruss perspective, I don't really expect to see them make any changes either. Like I don't see.
00:16:43
Zak
I mean their first half worked right and their second half it seems like maybe they run out of gas and we started playing properly feel like
00:16:45
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:16:49
DailySaintsPod
Hmm. which like to some degree might have been part of the game plan, right? There's certainly an element of our game that we've developed, especially in our like game against Arsenal and City, which is where we're happy to sit and absorb pressure. And sometimes we are...
00:17:05
DailySaintsPod
happier against an opposition who wants to have the ball. I just don't think that... so Whilst that might be true, I don't think the game plan was sit off and absorb as much pressure as we did in the first half of the first leg.
00:17:19
DailySaintsPod
I just think that they you know maybe caught us off guard with with the quality that they bought, but...
00:17:26
Zak
Well, that's what we need to do this game.
00:17:26
DailySaintsPod
But having played them this you know that recently, is I just don't think it's something that happens again. I don't think we have a slow start, especially at home with the the backing of the home fans.
00:17:37
Zak
I also think that they didn't pick up an advantage. So that's the big thing as well, right?
00:17:42
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, that's exactly it. It's it's genuinely a 90-minute shootout, or or you know I guess it's not. It's 90 minutes to do the job or you know the most nerve-wracking part of the season, but Yeah, I think that it's it's important to have come in at least level because because now it's on our turf. It's on our almost on our terms, which is the best position you can really hope to be in, I think, especially against a team, like I say, the the quality that Middlesbrough have. Yeah. Yeah, I think it's going to be good. Look, no point going through the historic stats or anything. wait we did We did that in the last preview. hasn't changed. the The general consensus from the the last episode's historic stats was that it's pretty much a stalemate historically and pretty much a stalemate this season and pretty much a stalemate in form.
00:18:35
DailySaintsPod
And that remains true after a stalemate nil-nil. So it's...
00:18:41
Zak
Yeah, not quite the 2-2 game that I had, I'd been hoping for, but there we are.
00:18:44
DailySaintsPod
It's the first time since like the... I think it's like the 80s or something that both first legs of the championship playoffs have had no goals. I don't know. It's a horribly remembered stat that was thrown up.
00:18:59
DailySaintsPod
But yeah, it's been a really long time
Game Predictions and Scenarios
00:19:03
DailySaintsPod
since that happened. So yeah, with that said, mate, and that out of the way...
00:19:12
DailySaintsPod
What do you think? How do you see it playing out?
00:19:15
Zak
I'd love to see just a twono I think Matsky has a crazy goal on him, and I think Azaz would be, again... you remember how we we started with...
00:19:26
Zak
We were worried that that might be the storyline, and the fact that, other than you get the fact that he got booed every time he had the ball, that has just become like a complete non-entity in this, bit because of the thing that should not be named, right?
00:19:35
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:19:39
Zak
LAUGHTER So i think that that would just be lovely.
00:19:40
DailySaintsPod
yeah
00:19:43
Zak
Yeah, just don't know how many particular reason why. i don't know how the story will play out. I don't think it will be as comfortable as when we beat West Brom.
00:19:53
Zak
I don't think Peretz would want to allow a him to concede in that game, going in potentially to a final if we get to it.
00:19:58
DailySaintsPod
hmm
00:20:00
Zak
But I'm also, like you know as much as I say 2-0, I say that through... i'd say that through a through through a mask of cautious optimism, shall we say. Let's go with that.
00:20:16
DailySaintsPod
interesting
00:20:16
Zak
Cautious optimism.
00:20:17
DailySaintsPod
interested
00:20:19
Zak
about you,
Team Resilience and Potential Reactions
00:20:19
Zak
mate?
00:20:21
DailySaintsPod
I don't know, I wish I'd thought about this before sometimes. Look, I think that
00:20:26
Zak
like we do it every game, mate. yeah
00:20:28
DailySaintsPod
i Look, here's the thing. As a team who sees the storyline of the season is that they've dropped from second and and not put away chances to to do what they needed to do to gain promotion. I think that if we go in front, they are very liable to have their heads drop.
00:20:53
DailySaintsPod
Whereas, to the counterpoint, I don't think a single member of this team or fan base at this point would go behind and not expect us to at least go and get a goal back. right that's we We have shown our ability to do that time and time again.
00:21:12
DailySaintsPod
and so...
00:21:12
Zak
Man, what a turnaround we've had, because you would have never have said that last season.
00:21:15
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, which is just Or even at the start of this season when we were talking about mentality.
00:21:21
Zak
mean
00:21:23
DailySaintsPod
But I just don't
Final Predictions and Fan Engagement
00:21:26
DailySaintsPod
know which of those things I actually see playing out. I don't know. I can see both things happening.
00:21:33
Zak
Ballpark it, mate. Come on.
00:21:35
DailySaintsPod
So let's go 3-1
00:21:36
Zak
the Cop out. You make me go first every time. o
00:21:41
DailySaintsPod
let's go three one saint
00:21:42
Zak
Right, so the same school that is last time around.
00:21:45
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, I think we score first and second, then it goes 2-1, and then we bury it.
00:21:45
Zak
Interesting.
00:21:48
Zak
Right. Okay.
00:21:51
DailySaintsPod
And I think Vinicius has caused the third goal and does a binocular celebration because that's football heritage.
00:21:59
Zak
Right. Okay.
00:22:01
DailySaintsPod
I think that Ross Stewart will score, and I think that Leo will score. There we go.
00:22:07
Zak
okay
00:22:08
DailySaintsPod
How's that?
00:22:09
Zak
Yes. that I mean, you gave me an answer after I asked you for what took some, took some goading out of you, but I got it.
00:22:15
DailySaintsPod
yeah i had to form I had to formulate it.
00:22:16
Zak
That's fine.
00:22:18
DailySaintsPod
But but look, I just think that actually a lot of the time in games, the first goal is the most important.
00:22:19
Zak
It's fine.
00:22:25
DailySaintsPod
I just don't know if that is true in this game. But I do think if we score first, it'll be enough to to push on the rest. But look, the dream scenario is 3-0 up in eight minutes and just party e for the other 72.
00:22:39
Zak
Well, that's got to hope for them, mate, eh?
00:22:41
DailySaintsPod
82. That's awful maths. That's almost as bad maths as the guy in the championship group last night who couldn't add up to the 40th playoffs. Which my favourite post of the week. Shout out to him.
00:22:53
DailySaintsPod
But look, that's it. Crunch time. Most important 90 minutes of the season so far. Let's do it.
00:23:03
DailySaintsPod
Let's get riled up. Let's get in the spirit. Let's bring the energy that I know we are all going to bring. Thank you so much for listening. And thank you, as always, Zach, for joining me. Let us know your score predictions, your thoughts, and how you are feeling about the game. in the comments on the socials. We're at Daily Saints Pod everywhere. TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube. Hit us up and let us know.
00:23:30
DailySaintsPod
but until after the game, when we are back to talk about it, whatever happens, have a wonderful day, Saints fans. Bring the energy, bring the noise, but most importantly, come on, you Saints!