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2024 Sun Belt Previews: James Madison & Troy
72 Plays8 months ago
Brian, Matt, and Zeke wrap up conference previews by discussing the 2 teams that technically finished at the top of their respective divisions last year: James Madison and Troy.
Both teams are bringing in new coaches and other new faces, but are they primed to step back from their last two years of dominance? Find out in this episode of Warm Weather Fans.
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Transcript
Introduction and Host Banter
00:00:14
Speaker
Welcome everybody in to Warm Weather Fans the Sunbelt Podcast. my My name is Brian Stone. I am your host joined once again this week by Matt Migas and somebody that I would call the Skip Bayless of the Sunbelt, Zeke Palermo. How are you guys doing? I'm going to throw it to Matt first because I have a very important question that I want to ask Zeke on the
Anticipation for College Football Season
00:00:37
Speaker
air. But Matt, how have you been? what do you What's up with you?
00:00:40
Speaker
Being called the ze the Skip Bayless of the Sun Belt is quite the quite the insult. um So great start to the night for you, Mr. Palermo. I'm doing well, man. College football is somewhat here. Week zero is upon us. um it It is a fictitious week, but hey, I'm so deprived for college football that I'm not gonna argue.
00:01:10
Speaker
um looking forward to what's actually a a pretty decent slate of games this weekend. surprisingly um ah there have been some real stinker week zeros uh where you know it would be like a ranked team playing boston college or something week one and that would be like the headliner on like eight o'clock on abc and you're just like i'm not even really looking forward to this like i'll watch like two quarters of it i like football i don't like uncompetitive football so but but yeah i think i mean i think the revamped you know
00:01:43
Speaker
There's a couple of other games, but I think the revamped Florida State or rebuilding Florida State versus what just see where Georgia Tech's at sort of as a measuring stick.
James Madison and Sunbelt Conference Insights
00:01:53
Speaker
Zeke, I have a question for you. Matt sent us a graphic in in our group chat earlier today.
00:01:59
Speaker
Now, when you were torturing Brett McMurphy to make him put Texas State on the on the graphic, did you use jumper cables? like Did you hog time? What was the sort of process there? Walk me through it. It it was really easy. All you have to do um is get him to look at the other group of five conferences and realize that they're as poor, if not worse, than the Sunbelt, particularly Conference USA, which is why I'm adamant there's no chance If like Texas state wins week one, stop the count. Just the, we'll call it there because, uh, the, the Russians and the Guatemalans are going to find some way to rig our committee selection and get a conference USA team. And it's going to be the greatest tragedy in college football history since, I don't know, the last college football playoff selection, I suppose.
00:02:59
Speaker
Every year is the greatest tragedy in the history of college football. It's just, it depends on what side of it you're on. If you're like, if you're an Alabama fan, it everything always works out just as you hoped it would. And if you cheer for any other team, there's a chance you're going to get shafted.
00:03:15
Speaker
um All right, so week zero is approaching we did talk about that However, there are no Sunbelt teams playing this upcoming weekend So we timed it up so that we would close out our conference previews This week and then next week would just be a pure look ahead to week one so The two teams that finished at the top of the table, you know all of the FCS to FBS stuff aside for James Madison, these were the two teams that finished you know the absolute highest in the conference on the east and west side. the fact We talked about the fact that James Madison wasn't there, was a tragedy, um and they really should have been because that team was stacked to no end.
00:04:01
Speaker
um But unfortunately, you know rules are rules whether that we think they're stupid or not. so Let's start off with James Madison. um And and we would ah a recurring theme with these two teams is going to be everything is new, brand new car. there's nothing There's almost nothing left over from last season for either of these teams. Like James Madison, just to start off, four returning starters in the offensive side of the ball, three on defense.
00:04:33
Speaker
New quarterback, new running back, all new receiving core. I think Phil Steele, I'm going to look at it when one of you guys goes, but I think he said they lost their top six receivers in production. So that is a lot. They get a new head coach and Bob Chesney comes over from a really successful stint at Holy Cross. And one thing too,
00:04:58
Speaker
And I guess I can wait. Well, I'll just do it now. So one thing too with James Madison and Troy is they kind of went back to the playbook that got them there with with hiring their new coaches as they did with their previous ones. So you get a defensive guy in Gerard Parker over at Troy. You get an FCS coach at James Madison. Same thing, you know, Signetti was with them when they were in the FCS, but they kind of dip back into those ranks to get Bob Chesney.
00:05:28
Speaker
I mean, I'm going to step on it. Vegas has them as an eight and a half win team this season over under, which I think is a little high. I mean, we'll, we'll talk about the schedule and I think that's a ah huge part of it.
00:05:43
Speaker
But eight and a half wins is a little too rich for my blood. um But Matt, how do you how do you feel about this James Madison team this year? I mean, like I said, there's not a ton of returning production to point to. That's the thing. There's just so many unknowns. I mean, Dylan Morris comes from Washington, which, you know,
00:06:05
Speaker
He's got four years of Pac-12 experience, was in the quarterback meeting room for a national championship game. Like, I mean, that's got to count for something. um and And he's never, it's not that he's never not seen the field. He had 15 starts at Washington. um So, I mean, he's he's an experienced quarterback. Is he Jordan McLeod?
00:06:31
Speaker
Yeah, probably not. um But you know I'm interested to see what Bob Chesney is going to do with this program because he's won everywhere he's been. um So how quickly can he be successful at James Madison? You know you return four starters on offense, only three on defense. And you were talking about the receivers. You lost your number one, number three, and number four.
00:07:00
Speaker
And then you also lost one of your key tight ends. So four pass catchers from last season, gone. So add that in with a new running back, add that in with a new quarterback.
00:07:15
Speaker
That's a lot to kind of retool um quickly. Eight and a half, like you said, Brian, that's it's a little high. um Now, I mean, do I think James Madison is going to fall off and be a 4-8 team? No, probably not. But mean are they going to be a 9-10 win team? Again, probably not.
00:07:37
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, that that was one of the things, too. I mean, when I was going through, you know, writing down win totals for the Sunbelt teams, I think that was the one that took me by the biggest surprise was eight and a half for James Madison. Like I I think they will be a good team this season. But to say, you know, we're already implying that they're going to win eight games regardless, like it's seven and five can't be a failure, right? I mean, it's it's year one. just starting over He's starting over with a totally new roster. So i I think we're getting a little bit out over our skis with this eight and a half total.
00:08:20
Speaker
now ah Again, i keep I keep talking about it. The schedule is absolute cake. I think Phil Steele has them projected as the easiest schedule in the FPS, if not... Second easiest. Second second easiest. Okay. So, I mean, I think that's doing a lot of the heavy lifting, but i I still think, you know, no offense to him, but there's always the off chance that Dylan Morris simply isn't.
00:08:43
Speaker
you know, what we think he might be as a quarterback spot. Zeke, how do you kind of foresee this team as a whole before we, you know, we we mentioned a couple of the position groups, but how do how do you feel about this team as a whole right now? You'll remember Brian a couple of years ago when James Madison first made the jump to the Sunbelt in the FBS. I was dogging them. I didn't think they were going to win a single game.
00:09:10
Speaker
um And I obviously was wrong. James Madison went on to become one of the best teams in the conference. um As we've seen the past several years, I think that.
00:09:25
Speaker
This like, this is a group that's going to be down. I think five, six, seven wins. Is there a range here? Um, because as Matt talked about, offensive production is gone. You're missing like 20 some on, uh, sex sacks, which you and Jamri Jamri, Chroma, sorry. And Jalen green.
00:09:43
Speaker
um who I think playing for the Bears and the others a free agent at this point so I mean that's 20 30 some odd sacks between the two of them that you're missing um this was just a as complete as a team as you're gonna see in the Sunbelt last season and it's just all gone um but lawns at Barnett I know Phil Steele doesn't have him as a starter and I don't know how that's gonna shake out is somewhat I'm curious to watch because Last year, he actually beat out Jordan McLeod for that starting gig, week one against Bucknow. He crapped the bed. I don't think he completed a single pass. And by week two, Jordan McLeod had won the job and beat Virginia on the road. But I think this could be an interesting, if Dylan Morris doesn't work out, who, as Matt said, is coming over from Washington as a backup primarily, obviously behind Michael Penix,
00:10:43
Speaker
I think Alonzo Barnett may have something to show because I, you know, who's to say, but he did beat out who became the Sunbelt Player of the Year in Jordan McLeod last year.
00:10:57
Speaker
Well, I mean, I think another team that was in that similar situation where they might have initially picked the wrong quarterback was at. I mean, they they selected Ryan Berger to start the season over, you know, Joey Aguilar. And we saw how that played out as well. i i I do want to give both of these teams app and JMU credit for A,
00:11:22
Speaker
identify, you know, not just going back to the guy they initially chose, like out of a sense of um stubbornness, because there are other teams that will do that, wink, wink, Georgia Southern, wink, wink, wink, wink, wink. they They will just stick with a guy, they'll look at something that's not working and just try to cram that square into a round, a round hole and it just doesn't, it doesn't take. But they had both app and JMU had guys on the bench that they knew could ball. And they were like, hey,
00:11:51
Speaker
Ryan Berger injured his finger, Alonzo Barnett. I think he did complete one pass because I looked at his stats on the Field Steel Magazine and his completion percentage was 28%. So I think he honestly played himself out of a job whereas Ryan Berger and App just got hurt and I mean a guy that was electric just took his spot. So Yeah, so you're like I said, you're starting over, you know you guys mentioned it. Dylan Morris, Alonzo Barnett, I guess, is in the mix. I mean, i I don't really know how much of a jump he could have made from from point A to point B as far as last year to this year. But I mean, he's still a sophomore. So he could
In-depth Analysis of James Madison's Team Dynamics
00:12:33
Speaker
conceivably just start next year if if Morris plays all this season. um I do not want to butcher their running backs name. However, I don't know how to say it.
00:12:44
Speaker
um Ayo, that's his first name, I think. um he I just got done playing them against them on season two of college football 25 last night. He's like their best player on their team. like It's not really even a competition. like I couldn't name another player that played for them, but he was gashing me the entire game on the ground. um And then, yeah, like receiver-wise, Maxwell Moss, two catches last year as a true freshman, Tajie Hudson,
00:13:16
Speaker
3 starts 88 yards last year as a whole. Cameron Ross um played last year at Yukon, 6 starts 552 yards. This is kind of surprising that the production at the receiver position looks like this because how many blowouts did they play in last year? They couldn't rotate like these guys in more with Barnett or whoever was the backup. That just that just seems surprising to me, although you know signeti was out for blood uh last year and you know rightfully so if you've got the talent to do it why not um but on the offensive line the offensive line is the one area on offense that i feel pretty good about uh i don't know about the quarterback i don't really know about skill position players but they do have three starters back on the o line so matt how do you feel about do you think the o line is going to be enough to kind of
00:14:09
Speaker
you know, raise all tides as far as this offense goes and just try to keep them afloat. Yeah, I mean, you've got three starters back, like you mentioned, um IO, AO, i is is one of their top players, had a great career over at North Texas over the past three seasons. um So, I mean, if if Bob Chesney's looking to run the football 20 to 25 times a game, then yeah, I mean, I think they'll be fine.
00:14:37
Speaker
um Because look, it all starts up front. And if you can have 60% of your starters from a year ago, where you went 11 and two, back, that's big. ah but That's good for leadership. That's good for continuity. um And just from a run game perspective, these you know that these guys are good.
00:14:57
Speaker
So all in all, yeah, i mean that's going to be a huge factor for them. um But can there can their new running back deliver or are they going to look to a guy like George Petway who comes from North Carolina or maybe a Tyler Purdy who followed Chesney from Holy Cross? So it'll be interesting to see how how they decide to to attack that running game.
00:15:22
Speaker
I know i know that this is college football. It's different from the pros. I would be interested to see if Io, the running back, was made sort of the bell cow at the RB spot if he would be able to keep physically keep up with it for a full season. He's 5'7", 197, which is a good little scat back size, but typically not the guy you want to hand down. Right. you don't You don't want those type of guys handling 300 touches. I mean, that's right that seems like a recipe Get your you know, get your guys leg broken or something when he's that size um But Zeke I mean as as an off the offense as a whole
00:16:02
Speaker
I guess what, what sort of offense, I guess, would you run with this personnel? You've got a bunch of, you've got a quarterback who's kind of an unknown. I mean, Matt talked about it. He started a bunch of games at Washington, but I mean, the stats weren't really all that great. So he's kind of a question mark or Barnett, whichever, whichever one you choose, if you're the, court you're the head coach in this situation.
00:16:22
Speaker
You've got a good running game and a seemingly good offensive line and then you got a bunch of question marks at receiver and tight end. So would you just look to like run the football constantly and then maybe do play action or would you try to be a little more ambitious?
00:16:36
Speaker
Um, well, like the copout answers, I think it's going to be fairly balanced. Um, and we can only estimate that because we don't know a ton about their skill position guys. Um, but I think the composition of this offense, uh, leads itself to running the ball more just because I, I, I like you and really like this offensive line. They returned three starters.
00:17:01
Speaker
Chesney brings over his right tackle from Holy Cross. And then you've got a guy who was on the roster last year in Carter Swayze playing left guard. So this is a unit that I feel confident about in the path blocking.
00:17:17
Speaker
There were only two or three games where James Madison allowed more than two sacks all season. ah they got They had five with more than two, but only three with more than two sacks. And they ran the ball exceptionally well last season as well.
00:17:34
Speaker
so i Based on the offensive line and what we saw last year, I would expect them to run the ball more. But it truly comes down to just like, how good is Dylan Morris? How good is are his weapons? and And that's something we can find out week one. But until then, we'll see.
00:17:59
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I just think like you got to ride Petway, IO, like until you can really kind of uncork it and see what it looks like. I think you i think you have to be a run first football team because I mean, obviously we've talked about it. The the talent coming back from last year is just not not really there. I will say though, I mean,
00:18:21
Speaker
Oh, sorry, go ahead. I think ah what stands out to me with Io, I'm going to take a stab at Adeyi. It just looks like the most reasonable way to pronounce it. That seems correct. Sure. Yeah. i Only 11 starts over the past three years at North Texas, but he masked 2,300 yards. That's 700 a year. I mean, he's been their number two guy for several years. So, I mean, he's ready for that step up in volume, I would venture a guess.
00:18:50
Speaker
Um, as you said, you know, crap happened, you know, we we don't know if so something might tweak and whatever, but I think by a pure volume perspective, he's the only one on this roster that I think or feel confident is ready for that increase in volume.
00:19:09
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, for sure. ah So on the offensive line, I wanted to call out a couple specific names. ah You get Tyshawn Wyatt back at left tackle. That's huge and he's huge. I mean, BT Dubs, 6-4, 3-25. Started eight games last year and then was out for the the rest of the season for them.
00:19:28
Speaker
you also get your right guard Cole Potts back who had 13 starts at right guard and you get your center Tanner Morris ah who ah started 13 games at center last year so at the very least you've got three really solid pieces at the offensive line spot and one of the things that Phil Steele said in the magazine was the offensive line was inconsistent or shaky last year. And I was like, I don't, I didn't really get that vibe at all. So I don't, they, they sputtered near the end of the year. Like they allowed five sacks to app for the air force, but I, you'll notice that lines up with them losing Taishong Wyatt at left tackle. But those were also really good football teams too. Oh yeah. like I know. i I completely agree with you. I i just show anywhere he may have came from that. Yeah. I just, I mean, app and air force,
00:20:20
Speaker
were probably two of the three best teams they played all year last year. So I don't think that's exactly like a ah knock on them. Anyway, so let's move off of the offense. Let's get to the defense. Oh, sorry. for If I can make one comment, you brought up Tanner Morris. That's a guy who really is just so impressive when you look at at the numbers. So he's listed as a junior. OK, it's his fifth year in the program.
00:20:50
Speaker
He's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there since he's been there
00:21:21
Speaker
You might be in trouble. I mean, for that reason alone, I would argue it's the most, um no well, most important on the offensive line, I would say. Like oh yeah if you should if you can't complete the the center to quarterback snap and you're in the shotgun or even if you're under center and you're kind of snapping it into the guy's fingertips and he can't get his hands around it.
00:21:41
Speaker
That's, that's a recipe for disaster. So yeah, it's, it's huge that they have a experienced center who started a bunch of games back and he can kind of help that transition for Morris or Barnett or whoever they end up selecting to play, to play quarterback. So let's get to the defensive side of the ball. Kind of the same thing as the offense, uh, just completely decimated eight of their nine top tacklers gone.
00:22:06
Speaker
Zeke mentioned Chroma, Green. I mean, the just the the list goes on and on. Honestly, the best guy in my mind that they get back is a guy that didn't play last year in Taurus Jones, the the linebacker, because he was hurt after I think he played three games. Yeah, he played three starts 38 tackles with second team all Sunbelt in 2022.
00:22:31
Speaker
But this defensive line is brand new. um i I anticipate, and I think Phil Steele does too, they they take a step back at the defensive line spot because um they were just a bunch of monsters last year. it was It was impossible. You couldn't double anybody. So it was just like, you want to double chroma? Great. Green's right there, and vice versa. And so it was just a nightmare for other offenses to defend. Defensive line wise,
00:22:59
Speaker
who Matt, who are you looking at that could maybe sneak in there and maybe replace some production that they lost because they they lost a lot and and specifically on the defensive line because that was sort of the anchor of the defense? I mean, Eric O'Neill at the Edge rusher, 6'3", 250 pounds coming in from LIU, had 15 and a half sacks over the last two seasons.
00:23:26
Speaker
I mean, you average that out, that's about eight sacks a year. So, I mean, that's pretty hard to argue against. But, you know, you know what you say, when you when you go from a smaller school up to a G5, is he going to be able to continue that level of play with the raising competition? um That's a big question I'm looking at. ah Terry Lockett's a guy that comes in from Syracuse. He's got Power Five experience.
00:23:54
Speaker
There's just so many questions with this defense and I know we talked about the amount of questions that you have offensively But the defense man, it's even worse. I mean your top returning tackler is your free safety like your free safety shouldn't be getting a whole lot of tackles unless he's playing in the box a lot and Um, so look, it's one of those things that they're going to have to figure out the defense quickly. It does help that year one is a cake schedule. Uh, I know we'll dive into the schedule later, but I mean, looking at it on paper, I would say there's two games that I don't have them favored in.
00:24:36
Speaker
So I mean, it it is a cake schedule, which will be good for the defense to kind of get their feet wet a little bit. But yeah, plenty of plenty of questions that need to get answered on the defensive side of the ball.
00:24:49
Speaker
For sure. um And then I you know i talked about Taurus Jones returning at the linebacker spot. He's going to be huge for them because you know it's almost like you put a guy on ice when when they get injured three games in for a year. And you're just like, hey, when he comes back, you know unless it's something really debilitating like an Achilles or something, he we're just going to be cooking with gas again and and have that production and leadership back.
00:25:18
Speaker
Zeke, I know we were sort of jumping around, but honestly, like there's not a lot that we can point to and say that guy is going to be really good outside of Jones and Jacob Thomas, the free safety. So is there maybe somebody else you're looking at or or is it just kind of these two guys are going to have to to anchor the unit until they kind of find some producers? I really like the guy that's running alongside Doris Jones, Jacob Dobbs.
00:25:43
Speaker
who's transferring in from Holy Cross. There's a whole bunch of them coming with Chesney. He spent the last two seasons or has twice won the Patriot League Defensive Player of the Year, which is not for nothing. 22 and a half sacks over five years. So ah he's a guy that's like a real disruptor. What you want out of a linebacker, a guy that can find space, get tackles.
00:26:05
Speaker
make those plays. And with the defensive line that i is going to be truly crippled as compared to last season's, which was, you know, second only to Troy, if that. ah I think he and Jones could make up a really strong defensive pair in the middle on the second level that both could, i realistically, I think both could end up with the All Sunbelt honors.
00:26:32
Speaker
Don't forget Zeke, you're you're talking about Jacob Dobbs. I know how much you love the tackle statistic. 432 tackles in five years. You do the math, that's about 86.4 a year. Yeah. That's pretty impressive. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:26:52
Speaker
i don't I don't know if you guys saw this. ah the i'm I'm getting a little off topic, but I want to talk. This this has to do with the tackle thing. um Did you guys see the tweet that went viral about Old Dominion inflating Henderson's tackle numbers and someone went someone went and did the but like watched the tape and added it up?
00:27:14
Speaker
Yeah. And then was like, he averages however many more at home than he does away. Like Zeke, that's got to be like your personal hell. Cause like not only are we talking tackles, but we're talking about a team inflating a stat that you're already like, yeah, you just kind of got to be near the ball to get credited for a tackle. I mean, it's just like hits versus errors in baseball. Cause you're like, hope I'm playing at home today. Uh, other, he gets screwed out of it.
00:27:43
Speaker
Well, ah there there was something similar. There's a YouTuber I watch who covers ah football. And he started out kind of as a Madden guy. and But he's a Packers fan. And he had they had this linebacker that he could not stand. He hated this guy's guts. And basically, he was just said said the same thing you did, which is tackles or BS. And all you got to do is kind of be within 10 feet of the ball. And you get credited for an assist. And he was just like, this is crap. So you're not alone on that island. I just i just think that's funny. like Not only are we talking about a... Yeah. It's like a hustle stat. Like, it's useful to get, like, a ah good feel on a guy. And if I'm recruit, you know, scouting, I suppose I want a guy with more tackles. But, like, if we're evaluating player, it tells me little to nothing. Yeah, I mean, I agree.
00:28:33
Speaker
um one more One more person I wanted to call out. I don't know if we mentioned his name or not when we were talking, but the third defensive starter coming back is Chauncey Logan, the corner. um He had 13 starts, 45 tackles, 7 passes defense to last year. So he might be a ah good piece on the back end. I mean, he and Thomas are gonna get going to kind of have to hold it down.
00:28:57
Speaker
on the defensive side of the ball because, again, it there are there's a solid chance it could get ugly if if that pass rush isn't there like it was last year. we They might have gotten a little spoiled with having green and chrome and just wrecking offenses. you know ah um You brought up the secondary, and one thing I'm noticing is the length that they're going to have in the secondary.
00:29:20
Speaker
I mean, obviously you look at their Rover, your Rover is not supposed to be a gigantic guy anyway. He's five nine one 80. I think that's a a pretty solid size. Um, Chauncey Logan, you just brought up six one two Oh five. Terence Spence at the other boundary corner, six two two Oh five. Kyle Holmes, your safe, your strong safety is five 10 one 90. And then Thomas comes in at six foot two Oh five.
Sunbelt Conference Offensive Trends
00:29:48
Speaker
you've got lengthy dudes in that secondary. um And that's gonna be important in ah in a league that traditionally likes to run the football. But over the last couple of years, you've you've seen some teams develop some passing offenses at state, Arkansas state, Texas state. So you know having having that length on the secondary could help you a lot.
00:30:17
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, no doubt. We, you know, we we talk about all the time. Sunbelt offenses have gotten pass happy. You know, Georgia Southern moved from the option to the complete other extreme. To the air raid. Yeah, to the air raid. So there are a lot more teams that are kind of that style of offense than than, you know, running the option, running the ball 45 times a game. So, you know, I think those guys are going to be big, but that's also the reason why I brought up the pass rush as well, because you got to get to the quarterback if you're going to defend one of those offenses.
Predicting James Madison's Season Record
00:30:48
Speaker
Let's talk about the schedule. We talked about how cake it was. I think there's four losses on the schedule with the team that they currently have. um For me, their losses are North Carolina. I think they lose to Coastal.
00:31:05
Speaker
on a Thursday, I think they lose at Southern because Southern is just typically a better team at home. And I think they lose it at that. Those are four. I think they're eight and four, seven and five. They could trip up again at at the end, maybe against Marshall, but I don't have a lot of faith in Cole Pennington.
00:31:25
Speaker
But I mean, if you look at the other conference games, ULM, Southern Miss, Georgia State, three teams that we've talked about are either bringing in new coaches or looking to dismiss one. um So I don't know. what do How do you guys sort of feel about the schedule? I mean, it's Kate, but I just don't i don't know about the team that they have. there's There's nothing here. Like you can, Charlotte and Gardner Web, you can Probably pencil in. um At UNC, we don't know what UNC looks like post trach made, but they're going to get walked. Both date among the worst teams in college football. That'll be a win. They were so bad last year. Are they not? Georgia Southern played them and absolutely waxed them. I think continue the college football 25 talk. I think they're the worst rated team in the game.
00:32:18
Speaker
Right there. next I think they might be joint But I don't know yeah, I this could be and this is completely you know ah Off the bell off the cuff, but this could be the worst like scheduled difficulty to wins ratio of any team because I Mean we've said it we're gonna keep pounding it until they prove us wrong stunt bills Thumbell East does not look good this year. And you get to draw Southern Miss. And you get to draw ULM, who are two of the easiest draws from the West. um Yeah, I think 8 feels spot on. But given the schedule, that that's a disappointment. But given the roster that, as we said, you'd be happy with 8 wins, I think.
00:33:11
Speaker
So like doing the least with the most, like you have the easy, you have a cake schedule, but you just, if this was last year and they still had Jordan McLeod and all those guys, I mean, they would just be a total buzz saw through these teams. I do think eight wins would also, would be doing the most with the least in terms of raw roster. I think that would be one of the better over-performances. um At least, you know, sure. but after not app, ULM could win seven, and eight games. That would be a great overachievement. But realistically, like James Madison, winning eight games is a bit of an overachievement.
Rebuilding Troy's Team Under New Coach
00:33:54
Speaker
If ULM wins seven or eight games, Brian Vincent deserves a statue tomorrow. I was just about to say, um I've got a challenge for our listeners. If anybody can go on college football 25,
00:34:09
Speaker
And I won't say a specific difficulty, but I'll say any difficulty other than freshmen. So you can play it on varsity if you want. um With ULM's current roster in 2024, can you win a natty? I'll do it tonight. Can you win a natty?
00:34:33
Speaker
ah I would challenge them to win the Sunbelt, honestly. like with And look, no disrespect to Hunter Herring. He was at UL. I saw a lot of potential in him. like With Hunter Herring as your quarterback, can you win a national title? Yeah, probably not. If a listener can pull it off and send us proof, I'm about to get some stickers made of our little football logo.
00:35:03
Speaker
That's nice to me. And so if y'all pull it off, we'll so I'll send you one. Hell yeah. Nice. OK. Yeah, I. As far as the, the Natty goes, ah I've seen some, um seen some wacky things as far as the rankings for other people on yeah on the college football subreddit. I mean, people are, people are posting like Auburn going seven and five and being the second seed in the playoff. I was just like, what is going on with this game? I saw one today that had Florida international but as the three seed.
00:35:41
Speaker
like stop it what right right what all right so let's go ahead and turn the page over to troy again another school that is having to totally reboot uh this season um All name team, new quarterback, Goose Crowder. ha be Honk it up. The goose is loose. if he If he runs for over five yards in a game, I'll i'll post that next to a small highlight. The goose is loose. So again, new head coach, Gerard Parker, comes over ah from you know being at Notre Dame.
00:36:32
Speaker
ah Was apparently the interim at Purdue for six games in 2016 don't really know how much you can do with that information um Because Purdue was terrible pre-brom So, you know, whatever that's a wash goose Crowder two years at West Virginia Has a perfect completion percentage. I mean he's only he's only got like 85 yards but a hundred percent so I only only down from here. No, wait no interceptions. He's been perfect. No one's are pure little goose ah is has just been excellent, ah even though he hasn't put up many stats. All right. So you got goose Crowder at quarterback.
00:37:20
Speaker
what What is you guys' expectations for Troy? Because we Matt and I talked to Phil Steele and he was like, yeah, I expect them to take a step back. But other than the schedule, like what's what's really the difference to you guys between JMU and Troy as far as where they sit? i I have zero expectation. And the reason that I say that is what do we know?
00:37:50
Speaker
about this team. What do we know? point of like We know that Goose Crowder ah has two touchdowns in his career, one of them at West Virginia and the one last year at Troy. Your second leading rusher from a year ago, Damian Taylor, who had 361 yards.
00:38:14
Speaker
is back. So that's a positive, right? um You got a guy that you know it didn't get a lot of touches behind Kamani Vidal, but got enough for you to feel pretty confident um about what your what you're getting back. And then you also return your number two and number four receivers.
00:38:38
Speaker
Two starters, okay? Two starters on offense, two starters on defense.
00:38:44
Speaker
I can't have an expectation with that because every position that you look at, there's a giant question mark. There's a giant question mark with the coaching staff too, because he's never been a head coach. So, I mean, as harsh as it may sound, what's my expectation of Troy? I can't have one. I don't know.
00:39:06
Speaker
So i I screwed up. Gerard Parker was the OC at Notre Dame, not the DC. I don't know why. I don't know why I just immediately associated him with being a defensive guy. I just kind of thought that they would go back to the well, I guess, mentally. I was like, you know, it went so poorly last time with the OC hire with Chip Lindsey that there's no way that they would just go back to OC, right? And it's like, eh, maybe. ah Zeke, as far as the offense goes,
00:39:36
Speaker
Is Damien Taylor are the only guy you feel good about? Because I mean, for me. It's it's like he him and you know Eli Russ at center. We talked about how important the center position is. Do you feel good about anybody on this offense other than those two guys? I'm going to say I don't even know if I feel good about Damien Taylor. Not that he's not a good running back, but my concern with running backs is always volume and it's what I why I'm confident or.
00:40:05
Speaker
you know, willing to give hope to IO day is what we decided on. Um, because he's seen the volume before Damien Taylor was averaging five yards of carry last year. I, uh, and again, like he was doing well, 4.6 per or 5.2 rather per carry in those games, but five, five touches per game is simply not enough for me to say that I feel good about it.
00:40:33
Speaker
so So what do you feel good about on this offense? Anything? I mean, it's very similar to James Madison. There are guys that could be good. But at this exact moment, other than a couple pieces on the offensive line, although I think Jamie's offensive line is far more complete than Troy's is, the offensive line is the thing that makes me most confident about this team. And that's not to say that I'm confident about this team.
00:41:02
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, that's that's fair. ah Eli Russ is the center I alluded to, ah started 13 games with them last year. Daniel King is the other guy, 14 starts at right guard. Other than that, yeah kind of just starting purely over at offensive line.
00:41:21
Speaker
you know I would feel better if you had Chris Lewis, ah but obviously you know he's dealing with a medical issue. He has already been rolled out. He is not going to play this year. He had 735 yards for Troy last year, really electric playmaker as a wide receiver. But again, due due to a a medical issue, ah he's not going to be able to play. So I mean, again, outside of those two, starting off with the lineman that you just mentioned, Brian,
00:41:49
Speaker
there's i Mean we'll see Can can goose Crowder not only be on the all-name team, but on the awesome belt team of course it's possible. We'll see um I just I can't I can't give an opinion on People that I have no idea about Well, I think Chris Lewis and Devontae Roth put together like a, a solid enough core, but I think by Troy standards and where, I mean, this is a team that last year won 11 games by those standards. That's not going to fly. That is an exceptional. Old Dominion wide receiving core. That's exceptional. But I think, you know, all all these conversations are within the context of the specific teams. Uh, that, that ain't all of it.
00:42:42
Speaker
Well, you know, speaking of guys that don't actually have much of any, any sort of backing to their name, but Phil Steel likes him. Jordan love it at the running back spot. He thinks it's going to ah good be like a really solid piece. So maybe he and Taylor like rotate in, um, because you know, Zeke, you talked about it. Taylor had some great efficiency on sort of low volume behind the doll.
00:43:09
Speaker
ah last year who is now on the Chargers and I try to keep up with his progress and it seems like every day he just bounces around the depth chart like one day he's with the first team and then the next day he's the fourth string running back behind Jared Patterson or somebody random like that. So I I don't I don't really know but I think they're kind of in the same boat as GMU in that they may want to lean on the run and You know just try to grind games out. Hope hopefully, you know for them Taylor keeps his level of efficiency He has love it provides maybe like a home run threat in the same vein not the same thing but the same vein is like an Ismail Mahdi where it's like
00:43:51
Speaker
You could give him the ball in space and let him work and maybe he rips off like a couple of big runs next year and gives you kind of a spark in that sense. But yeah, I mean, other than those two offensive line pieces, there's not a lot that you can kind of point to and say, hey, you know this guy. Let's let's go with that. um Let's transition to the defensive side of the ball. So Philip Lee is supposed to be their primary ah pass rusher at the.
00:44:20
Speaker
What is the term, the bandit spot? Bandit, yeah. Bandit, okay. So, Philip Lee, 15 tackles, three tackles for a loss last year was, you know, not, you know, not taking Jevon Solomon's spot. Let's just say that. So, you've got to, he's kind of got to find, ah you know, a niche for himself in order to, you know, rush the passer. but defensive line wise I mean this is I hate to keep saying it but I mean I've got to say the same thing over and over and over again I don't really know like what to expect they they were they were kind of the mirror image of jmu their defensive line would just wreak havoc last year
00:45:01
Speaker
And, you know, you got Raymond cuts. You got Julian Peterson at the nose tackle spot. He had five tackles in 14 games he appeared in. I know tackles are a garbage stat Zeke. I do know that. But at the nose tackle spot, you're supposed to at least get your hands on some guys coming through the middle. And then Lewis Medina um had 23 tackles last year. So there there is that, but...
00:45:29
Speaker
They're going to have to show us something because this team could really, I mean, underachieve in that what we've come to expect from Troy, like this might be a steep, steep drop. The the comparison or the similarities between yeah overall roster makeup between Troy and JMU, just like as we keep going, become clearer and clearer.
00:45:53
Speaker
because like JMU, they're missing two ridiculous pass rushers. They're missing, I mean, this was the best defense in the conference. if not the country last year. i Troy was has been exceptional defensively the past several years, and that was just kind of how it was under John Sumrall. The only guys I feel good about this, much like with JMU, I like the linebacker core, I suppose, but that's because they're the only two returning starters.
00:46:25
Speaker
there's There's no one coming in that, you know, was an exceptional starter elsewhere. Um, like, uh, again, the reference JMU, they had guys coming from Holy Cross, for example, where they were long time starters, put up good numbers. These are just promotions. Uh, guys that were red shirted last season, uh, you know, played bot starts or what have you last season. This Troy team is incredibly fresh.
00:46:50
Speaker
I think you benefit from a lot of them staying within the system. So they've got some of that John Summerall blood in them. But the only guys we've ever seen play football are your linebackers, Jordan Stringer and Steven Catlidge. I feel a little imposter syndrome when I say this. It's like, I don't know. and But it's reasonable to not know what to expect it because we've not seen these guys play football.
00:47:18
Speaker
Yeah. And I mean, another guy, too. And again, this is it. It kind of stinks to have all of your returning production fall in one position group, ah especially when you have three linebackers that have game experience, but you run a four to five. So you're going to have to rotate one of those guys. Terry Thomas is the third guy. But but yeah, I mean, I was going to save this, but we can go ahead and do it now. The back end is who?
00:47:48
Speaker
Who is that? Does anybody want to help me with these? but I mean, like, truly, i'm I'm just like, I don't I don't recognize a single one of these names. So. Again, see Phil Steele was like, yeah, they're going to take a step back. Yeah, dude, because they don't have any of the people from last year's team or the year before. like Yeah, you replace the the head coach and everybody except the linebackers and the right guard in the center. Like, yeah, of course they're going to take a step back. like It's a brand new team.
00:48:18
Speaker
so Defensively I think this is gonna be if Troy fans are coming into this season expecting the same sort of defensive production They've had the last two years I think you're gonna have a bad time Because I think this is gonna be one of those where it might ramp up and get better throughout the year but as far as like overall you're not you're not holding teams to two touchdowns every week like you were a Year a year ago two years ago So Matt, is there anybody else that we're missing out on, on the defensive side of the ball that maybe we should feel good about that doesn't play linebacker or are we just kind of like, oh yeah I was, I was going to bring up, I was going to bring up Jordan Stringer. Uh, but when, when, when you said that doesn't play linebacker, I mean, again, like I said, with the offense, there's just so many unknowns outside of that linebacker court. Um,
00:49:11
Speaker
Now look, do I think that Gerard Parker, who was an interim coach at Purdue and an offensive coordinator at Notre Dame, do I think he knows how to recruit? Yeah, probably. um i don't I don't think he got slouches to come play defense for him at Troy. ah But I mean, are we looking at a team that's going to win double digit games and compete for the Sunbelt? No, not in 2024, I don't think.
Challenges in Troy's Upcoming Season
00:49:37
Speaker
And ah the I've seen a couple of outlets who have have called the West a three team race with Troy as the third team. And I was just like, I don't I don't understand where you're getting that at all. Like you are doing a lot of heavy lifting, taking guys that just didn't play or played sparingly and are just like, yeah, they're going to take, you know, Damian Taylor at running back is just going to keep averaging five point two yards a carry again when you give him 200 touches rather than however many he had. So i I just don't, I don't see that. So to me, the West is still
00:50:16
Speaker
Texas State 1, Louisiana 2, and it all comes down to that game to decide who wins. And everybody else is just sort of trying to figure things out. um Let's get to the schedule. It's a lot harder than JMU's. JMU's was a cakewalk. You know, you got to play Memphis, Memphis in iowa and Iowa in back to back weeks. That's tough. Going to, what is it, Kinnick?
00:50:41
Speaker
and playing Iowa, who's always got a good defense, that's going to be tough for the third game for Goose Crowder, ah who again, I think he has like 88 passing yards his entire career. um Texas to State is on the schedule. Arkansas State, Z, close your ears. Arkansas State is can score some points, so defense isn't up to snuff by that point. It could get ugly.
00:51:07
Speaker
Coastal Carolina coming off a bye the next week. You get a bye, you play at Georgia Southern, who is also coming off of a bye, but it's in Statesboro where they notably play better than they do on the road. You play at Louisiana in the penultimate game of the season. That's not, we've we've already talked about Louisiana and Texas State's kind of a two twoh horse race. And then you close with Southern Miss, but I mean, you know.
00:51:32
Speaker
By that point, who knows if you're just going to be mentally over it the same way that Georgia Southern was last year when they back slid. If you catch enough Ls in a row, it's kind of tough to pull yourself back out of the dumps and be like, no guys, we I swear we can do this. like You know what I mean? like If you just catch five Ls at the end of the season, it's going to be really tough even to say, hey guys, no, we really need do get up for Southern Miss even though we've just gotten our doors blown off by you know, Louisiana and you know Arkansas State scored 45, 48 points on us after they struggled to do anything the last couple of years. they're Their win total is six and a half. where Where do we kind of stand on that? Over. You think the over? Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to say they go as far as being a six and six football team.
00:52:21
Speaker
um
00:52:24
Speaker
No. Do I think that they barely get over? Maybe they're a 7-8 win team? i would take I would take the under. Really? I think I like the under here, too. Yeah. yeah um It's just hard to count on your fingers 6-win. Well, it's like, OK, we don't know anything about Nevada. You know, Georgia Southern plays Nevada, too. I don't know anything about Nevada. ah You got typically better.
00:52:52
Speaker
Yeah, the they're typically not very good. You got two Power Five schools, again, Memphis and Iowa back to back weeks. Is Memphis Power Five? no No. They're American, aren't they? But top of the American, without Cincinnati, they're consistently top of the American.
00:53:10
Speaker
Yeah, I guess I forgot about the them still being in the American. Okay, so you've got you got Memphis, who's always like a really good p five school, no matter who's the coach, Iowa, who we already talked about. um Texas State.
00:53:26
Speaker
Again, Arkansas State, Coastal, and I don't know how you feel about them, but that that's possible if they're if they're just not good. Louisiana, at Louisiana, at Georgia Southern, I think they could be six and six, five and seven this year. And it's no it's not really a knock on them, they just kind of got screwed schedule wise with the team that they have. I think last year's Georgia team,
00:53:51
Speaker
last year's Troy team, if they played this schedule, I think wins nine, 10 games, but mean look i don't I've got them. I've got them one in three games in the month of September. Um, I've got them beaten Nevada. I've got them beaten FAMU and I've got them beating ULL. Um, I think they could beat South out.
00:54:10
Speaker
Yeah, that's why I didn't say them. That's four. um I think the Arkansas State games kind of, you know, we'll see how both those teams look. I think it's the same with Coastal Carolina. We'll see how the both of those squads look. um And then I think you could beat Southern Miss. So, I mean, i'm looking I'm looking at six, seven wins there.
00:54:32
Speaker
No, I think they just got a poor draw. Like it's possible they win six games. But I just went back and looked at JME's schedule. If they play JME's schedule, I've got them for seven whens wins easily. It's just yeah they got a cruddy draw. Oh, it's a brutal schedule. It is. um But I don't know. um I'm going to cautiously take thee over.
00:54:54
Speaker
Well, the other thing too, so offensively they averaged 29.6 points per game last year. Phil Steel's you know enigmatic a computer model has them moving back to 24.6. So that would be, you think about five points and being like, oh, it's not that big of a deal. I mean, that's the difference between you know winning or losing a couple of games. And then defensively he has them regressing by an entire touchdown per game. So you go from 17.1 to like 24.
00:55:24
Speaker
So I just, if you're averaging as many points on offense as you are allowing that, I mean, is there, is there a more bat signal for being a six and 16? That's perfectly balanced as yeah they would say. That's fair.
00:55:42
Speaker
So I just, I think a lot of the coin flip games are going to be a real problem for them. I just don't, I don't foresee them winning a lot of coin flip games. The games where they, again, they're overmatched, you know, they they're beating the hell out of FAMU and ULM and
Podcast Wrap-up and Future Plans
00:55:57
Speaker
Southern Miss. Sure. for Three free wins right there. But the rest of them, I think it's going to be tough.
00:56:05
Speaker
So as we sort of close out here, do we have any sort of last minute thoughts on either of these teams? And if not, Zeke, you could go ahead and tell everybody where they could find you on socials and then throw it to Matt and then i'll I'll go last. Yeah, you can ah you can find me on Twitter at Zeke Palermo, Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O. nothing you know Matt's usually got something fun to plug, I don't this time.
00:56:30
Speaker
You can follow me on social media at megasmat. I will be posting a poll on my Twitter page tonight on on Monday as we're recording this. Three teams, one playoff spot, who gets it? A 12-0 Texas State, a 12-0 Liberty,
00:56:59
Speaker
or an 11 and one Tulane with their loan loss coming to Oklahoma? Who gets the playoff spot? I think Tulane is more likely to slip in than Liberty. I go Texas State, Tulane, Liberty there.
00:57:22
Speaker
We brow beat you about this last week, Zeke, and I'm going to feel this way until I see the committee do otherwise. they're goingnna put in If a team is undefeated in the G5, they're going in over over a team that even if the team that has the most quality loss, they do not care about that at the G5 level. They're all about dubs. I think the real question is,
00:57:49
Speaker
I think Texas State, if they made it to 12 and 0, goes in over Liberty. Because I think you could look at strength of schedule and that type type of stuff as a tiebreaker. but Well, I guess they would be 13 and 0 because the hypothetically, I would have all three of these teams as their conference champ.
00:58:07
Speaker
Yeah, and I just don't think the committee cares enough or is educated enough to pick a team that even has a loss if there's two or one undefeated team on the board. I just don't. I don't see them doing it.
00:58:22
Speaker
um I do have something fun to plug. So we are going to be on YouTube. We have set up video for this podcast. We are going to start posting episodes. I'm going to try to get ah some clips set up so that we can maybe do a little like TikTok YouTube short type deal.
00:58:42
Speaker
And we can push those out on Twitter as well So again, if you want to look at my ugly mug and then these two guys you can catch us on YouTube ah It's literally youtube dot.com slash at warm weather fans our Twitter handle So you can catch this episode and every subsequent episode over on that channel You can send us emails at warm weather fans at gmail dot.com follow us on x warm weather fans You can follow me person x at watch the stone Boys, this was the last preview where we're back to cooking with Greece. It's, it's football season for real this time next week. Hell yeah.
00:59:22
Speaker
All right. So I'm, I can't be more, no, I can't be more excited. Honestly, like every, every spring and summer feels like it gets longer until football season than when I was a kid, where it just felt like I was, I didn't want school to start. So I just was holding onto summer as long as I could. Now I just can't wait to get to fall and it feels like it takes forever, but next week we will be back previewing week one games. We'll have the.
00:59:48
Speaker
the bedding sheet setup that we set up last year. I'll go back and look at what our winning percentages were and and add that as well just for context. um But yeah, we got a lot of really fun stuff in the works and and hope you guys join us on YouTube or you know your favorite podcast catcher. But yeah, this has been another episode of Warm Weather Things.