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2025 Sun Belt Football: Week 10 Preview
71 Plays1 month ago
Brian and Zeke go over all of the upcoming action for week 10 in the Sun Belt, including a Sun Belt East eliminator with Coastal Carolina and Marshall coming tonight, Troy trying to remain perfect in conference play against Arkansas State, and if South Alabama can continue its momentum against Louisiana.
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Transcript
Introduction: Hosts Recap Week 10
00:00:15
Speaker
All right, welcome everybody back to warm weather fans. It is Brian and Zeke here to talk about week 10 in the Sunbelt. We know we have this Tuesday night game or had a Tuesday night game between James Madison and Texas State, but we are recording this on Sunday.
00:00:31
Speaker
Um, you know, we're wearing the same clothes that we wore in the previous episode. So that that's proof that we're not just going back and calling our shot. Uh,
Game Preview: JMU vs Texas State
00:00:41
Speaker
But Zeke, this Tuesday night game's interesting um because it's James Madison in San Marcos at night against Texas State.
00:00:49
Speaker
JMU is a five and a half point favorite as it sits today, only five and a half, even though we have talked about and lamented Texas State's lack of defense. um They don't really they're not really able to run the ball if it's not with Brad Jackson.
00:01:04
Speaker
Yeah. so they're going to be one dimensional and they're going to come in and face a JMU defense. That's really been given people absolute fits all season, including Louisville, who is now ranked, you know, it took them 50 minutes to, to kind of break through and and make an impact in the, in the ground.
00:01:24
Speaker
yeah, you know ah yeah I think James Madison handles this one easy. If Alonzo doesn't pull his one of his Georgia State-ish performances from earlier this season again, I think they they handle business fairly easy.
00:01:38
Speaker
Yeah, ah they they enter this game, as we reported Sunday night, as five-and-a-half-point favorites, which might come from the fact that even in losses, um Texas State has really...
00:01:51
Speaker
Every game that Texas State has lost has been relatively close, save for years and the Arizona State game. I guess that only leaves Arkansas State and Troy and Marshall. um and that you know So that's a bit of a smaller sample sample size.
00:02:06
Speaker
But that's a combined margin of defeat of 15 points across those games. So Texas State ah is well positioned to not get outscored.
00:02:17
Speaker
um that's never going to be the main concern. It's going to be how many points ah the other team puts up, but yeah, ja Jamie puts belt on them because they're just leagues ahead from a program perspective.
Player Focus: Brad Jackson vs Colton Joseph
00:02:34
Speaker
two Two quick things before we move off this game, because I know this episode's coming out after this game is has already concluded, but let me let me ask you two things like in theory. Number one,
00:02:46
Speaker
Do we think Brad Jackson's a better quarterback than Colton Joseph? No, right? Like definitively no. Definitively no. what What would stop JMU from literally employing the exact same game plan? Like literally just take out, take the ODU play game plan out of the trash, dust it off, hand it back to the players and go, yeah, this is also a a team that has ah a mobile quarterback that can't run the football outside of said mobile quarterback.
00:03:14
Speaker
And their whole offense is predicated around throwing the ball. Yeah. Just do what we did a couple weeks ago. Just do it again. And ah get only worse.
00:03:24
Speaker
Like, Old Dominion's defense is honestly better than ah Texas State's. Oh, yeah. ah Yeah. Again, were we're recording this ahead of time, so we'll let you know next week if we were right.
00:03:38
Speaker
Right. All right. So
Matchup Analysis: Marshall vs Coastal
00:03:40
Speaker
the game that is tonight, Marshall is taking on Coastal. ah It is in Conway. Marshall is only a three and a half point favorite. You know, Coastal has had this, I guess, resurgence ah with this new quarterback that they found who started rocky, but has gotten better, looked looked better. You know, what was it? Two weeks ago at this point.
00:04:04
Speaker
So, Do you think Marshall plays a another close game where it comes down to, you know, the wire last position wins type stuff? Like, how do you how do you foresee this game playing out? Because the one thing that we know about Marshall is they can score, but their defense is not good um outside of forcing turnovers against Old Dominion. Their defense has not been good.
00:04:28
Speaker
Yeah. Coastal is shockingly 3-1 in the Sun Belt this season. ah Yeah. so what are what are your kind of thoughts on this one?
00:04:39
Speaker
I could see this kind of taking shape similar to last week's Thursday night game, South Alabama-Georgia State, where it's two teams that have some pretty glaring deficiencies, um but at the end of the day end up putting up points.
00:04:55
Speaker
um Now, granted last week that when it was Georgia State versus South Alabama, I i think we can chalk that up to two bad defenses um that got exploited. i think it might be the case here, but with a higher caliber of offense. Samari Collier, as you mentioned, at Coastal has been really good.
00:05:16
Speaker
Carlos Del Rio Wilson, though, alleg has beat the check down merchant allegations. Uh, and they're doing some really, really good things there. Um, I think this game might turn into a shootout. Last guy with the ball wins at the end of the day. Um, that said, I, Coastal's not off broad watch yet.
00:05:37
Speaker
There's a real, real chance they come out and play a stinker. I don't think Marshall has that as great a probability of that. Um, I think this ends up being last ball, last possession wins.
Marshall's Offensive Strategy
00:05:48
Speaker
Um, But there's there's a real, real voice in me that says Coastal is going to come out and put seven up.
00:05:58
Speaker
Keep in mind their two wins in the last two games that they've played have come against an app team um who seems to be imploding at the quarterback position. I don't really understand what's, what's going on there.
00:06:12
Speaker
And then you all Monroe, who we've talked about ad nauseum about not being able to score points. They can't really move the football. They cannot throw the football at all. ah No matter who they kind of throw back there.
00:06:23
Speaker
Yeah. I think this one's going be interesting. i think I agree with you. I think it is going to be similar to um you know Georgia State South Al, where i would say i wouldn't touch a spread in this one, but I'd bet the over.
00:06:40
Speaker
I feel like both of these teams are going be able to move the ball kind of up and down the field. ah Yeah, Samari Collier, I just keep waiting for... the the 30% completion percentage that he turned in around the ULM game to kind of rear its head again and go, Oh, actually I'm not that efficient of a passer. And if they take away my ability to get outside and run, what's that look like?
00:07:06
Speaker
Like, you know, a lot of there are a lot of really mobile, nice quarterbacks in the Sunbelt, whereas Colton Joseph is kind of the Charizard. If you're doing a Pokemon evolution of that, where it's like he can sit in the pocket and throw the ball. Now he's best, you know, make him plays outside of structure.
00:07:24
Speaker
But Collier, we have not seen a team really go, okay, we're going to hem you in ah running the ball wise, which Marshall did against Colton Joseph. And we're going to force you to sit back there and make reads and go from one, two, three, go through progressions, you know, identify a coverage, throw a ball to a spot.
00:07:44
Speaker
Coastal's receiving weapons aren't exactly the best group of receivers I've ever seen in my entire life. And Old Dominion's receivers were way better than them. So um um I think I lean Marshall here now that I've talked about it a little bit. But I i would say take the over. I feel like there's going be a ton of points either way.
00:08:02
Speaker
Sure. and And that today sits at 54.5. Is that right? Yeah. And I mean, think about... South Alabama, Georgia State just played, I think it was 69 combined points. they They cleared it fairly comfortably, so I think it's going to be ah closer to that.
00:08:18
Speaker
And we know if Marshall goes up, they're just going to keep pouring it on. like They're not a team that is going to go up two scores and just try to salt the game away, run the ball. That is not what they did against Old Dominion. They were attacking for...
00:08:33
Speaker
50 minutes of a 60 minute game. I mean, they really kind of only eased up once it was way, way out of ah striking range. Yeah. And they they did the same to middle Tennessee state and Eastern Kentucky earlier in the year, 42, 28, 38, seven.
00:08:49
Speaker
So, yeah, that's that one. Only
Old Dominion vs UL Monroe Predictions
00:08:53
Speaker
three Saturday games this week. ah You know, kind of a short ah slate. You've got 330 Old Dominion's taking on Ewell Monroe. This is in Monroe.
00:09:03
Speaker
Old Dominion is a 14 and a half point. ah road favorite. I like them here. straight like Give me the points, whatever. ah you will Monroe cannot put the ball in the end zone. They can't keep up with Old Dominion.
00:09:19
Speaker
I would lean toward taking the under actually in this one. You've got an Old Dominion team that has... you know, they got the belt from Marshall.
00:09:30
Speaker
They got beat really bad in the second half by JMU. They struggled to score points against app last Saturday. And then you've got you all Monroe, who is lucky to score 14 points a week.
00:09:41
Speaker
So, and the over under 53 and a half. I just, unless old dominion puts up 49 of those, I just have a hard time imagining like you L Monroe contributing at all.
00:09:53
Speaker
Yeah. Uh, I mean, Colton Joseph, while he's still like the Charizard of that archetype, and ah even within just like Sunbelt quarterbacks is kind of still at that pinnacle. He's either 1B, depending on your stance ah between him and Braxton and and in what you're evaluating. So he's 1A or 1B.
00:10:12
Speaker
um Teams are starting to really… figure out it's kind of like how we've seen teams adapt to Lamar Jackson in recent years where it's like, he's still that guy that that's not changing, but we were figuring out how to reign him in, figuring out how to minimize the damage. Um, especially what he does on the ground, which is absolutely incredible Colton Joseph. So I think,
00:10:39
Speaker
You know, jury's still out on whether these these are good coaches. If it's good coaching that's figuring this out or if it is a... every glaring hole that that teams are identifying. So, you know, I think ULM, a defense that's not really been great, 49 against Southern Miss, 37 against a Troy team that's been so, so offensively.
00:11:01
Speaker
um So I think this will be really telling about Colton Joseph's future and his play style and how it works the remainder of the season, the remainder of his career.
00:11:13
Speaker
I think if I'm old dominion, you know, i think you all Monroe's if I'm, if I recall correctly, cause I looked it up this past week, their Achilles heel on defense is really their pasty.
00:11:23
Speaker
And so I think if you're old dominion, you can get some of those, you can hit some of those deep shots with those receivers. Like they like to do. I would, i would just get him in. I would get Colton Joseph in. I'd get a big lead and I just kind of take him out fairly early just because I'm like,
00:11:43
Speaker
do you accomplish anything? Like if he gets hurt in a game that is not really going to be close and they go, you know, while they're chasing, you know, the move from, okay, we have 42. Now we want to get to 49 or whatever.
00:11:57
Speaker
And he gets hurt in like a meaningless game. that That's going to be devastating for their season. So I think this one's going to be so lopsided. I think they can take a big lead and then just kind of pull him and be like, all right, we'll save him for another day.
00:12:10
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, they're we're at this point in the season where they cannot drop anything. um so So an injury would ultimately, because the destiny's out of their hands. It's up to James Madison to lose not one, but two games at this point.
00:12:24
Speaker
Three. Three, I'm sorry, because of the tiebreaker loss. um Yeah, he's precious cargo. ah soon as... If Old Dominion had any run game to speak of outside of Joseph, I would say get your three-point lead because at that point, ULM's going to start freaking out and say, Colton, hey, start getting the bus ready, man. you know Go get warm.
00:12:50
Speaker
go Go tuck yourself in. We'll meet you back at the hotel. I would almost... i i I know Southern did this back in the day when they ran the spread option, whatever you want to call it, attack, where it was it was triple option concepts, but it was from a shotgun.
00:13:06
Speaker
I would almost say let Colton Joseph play like the majority of the game, but let Quinn Hennigle maybe take like a drive or two in non-garbage time, just to kind of take...
00:13:19
Speaker
Because, again, it doesn't matter. You could go three and out on those drives. You know, Monroe's not going to score. Like, if they go down 14 points, like, the game's essentially over. So, i like I said, ah you know, maybe maybe rotate the backup in and see get him some run in a game that is probably going to get out of hand pretty early.
00:13:37
Speaker
Yeah.
Game Dynamics: Louisiana vs South Alabama
00:13:39
Speaker
We got another 330 kick here. Louisiana is traveling to Mobile to take on South Alabama. South Alabama is a five-and-a-half point home favorite, which seems huge to me.
00:13:50
Speaker
um Over-under is 54-and-a-half. I actually like the over in this one as well. Louisiana... can't do anything on offense besides deep shots with lunch Winfield or running the ball with lunch Winfield because there we talked about on the last episode how poor their offensive line is ah South Alabama maybe they found kind of a rhythm off of the Georgia State game now I don't think they're gonna be knocking off any title contenders to end the season but It's Louisiana.
00:14:23
Speaker
you know it's not You're not playing Southern Miss. You're not playing the troy Troys of the conference. You're not playing JMU or Old Dominion. It's a 2-6 Louisiana team that seems to be floundering looking for answers here. So I think this is going to be a ton of points similar to the Georgia State game. If Georgia State can put up 31, I feel pretty confident Louisiana could probably get a 24, I would say.
00:14:48
Speaker
Yeah, I concur. I think Louisiana is going to put a point. The question for South Alabama is, is there going to be – we saw Kentrell Bullock find.
00:14:58
Speaker
we We saw a solid game from Bishop Davenport that we'd seen earlier in the year, um very early the year, granted, like week one, week two type stuff. um But we we know how poor this offense is when those guys aren't moving.
00:15:14
Speaker
And we know how poor. So I kind of like Louisiana straight up. I think these are two pretty bad teams um that might just get into a really ugly cat fight.
00:15:26
Speaker
I kind of like Louisiana straight up here. Okay. there There's just too much inconsistency. I think with at least with lunch, right, there's there's so many other factors in this game. I think two pretty bad defenses are going to kind of come into play here as well.
00:15:43
Speaker
But o it comes down to in these bad games, who's going to make a play? I know Lance Winfield is going to make a play at some point. He's going to convert a long third down with his legs.
00:15:55
Speaker
ah you know he He throws for 50%, 55%, but he he throws long. He's going to complete a long pass at some point. He's going to break loose. Something's going to happen. He's going to make that play.
00:16:07
Speaker
there like I'm not certain of that from South Alabama, which makes me like Louisiana here. Okay. um And then the last game Saturday night, eight o'clock on ESPN you.
00:16:19
Speaker
Wow. I can't believe they
Troy vs Arkansas State: Key Factors
00:16:20
Speaker
put this game on ESPN you. um I'm surprised this isn't an ESPN plus joint. Arkansas state is traveling to Troy to take on the Trojans. Troy is a seven and a half point home favorite over under is 54 and a half.
00:16:33
Speaker
Um, I think it's interesting that we learned last Saturday that Troy can still put up points in bunches if kill crease doesn't play very well.
00:16:44
Speaker
Um, because I thought, you know, we, we saw Jordan love it really, uh, step up and, and go over the century mark at two touchdowns. Um, kill crease probably played his worst game since, uh, Memphis, his first, which I think was his first game action after goose Crowder got hurt.
00:17:04
Speaker
So, Yeah, I think Troy keeps rolling here. I don't think our Arkansas State doesn't have enough defense. And I know i know they they beat Southern last week, but like Southern really, you know they were the the meme of the guy putting the stick in between the spokes of his bike and tripping himself.
00:17:20
Speaker
that They hurt themselves way more than Arkansas State did defensively. So I think offensively, Troy is going to have enough firepower to... make arkansas state's really poor defense pay and i don't think they're going to have much trouble doing it either yeah i i thought your point about the offense rolling proving that they can put up points without kill crease putting on what had been some of the best games of his career granted easily but uh the best games of his career by a fair margin um whereas with arkansas state
00:17:56
Speaker
we've we've compared week in week out Arkansas state and Texas state in that they're both high scoring off very high ceiling offenses uh with pretty lackluster defenses to back them up the difference I would say between the two is that with like Brad Jackson running that show and uh San Marcus What you get is some level of consistency.
00:18:18
Speaker
Two weeks ago, three weeks ago, Arkansas State scored 15 against a very bad South Alabama team that just conceded 24 to Georgia State, right? um Arkansas State, what we now is actually a kind of feisty Kennesaw State team, but 21 points to Kennesaw State. So whereas Texas State, I can count on them to get into a shootout.
00:18:41
Speaker
Arkansas State, there's like a 50-50 chance they come out and score 21 points. And Troy's proven that that's just simply not enough as of late. They've almost flipped the script from what the John Summerall years were, where troy was you knew Troy was going to allow under 10 points.
00:18:59
Speaker
Who knew how many they were going to score? They could score 10, they could score 21, but you knew defense was going to do its job. It's starting turn into the opposite where we're seeing 31, 35, 48-point games, and it's like, some weeks we're going to allow 14, some weeks we're going allow 41.
00:19:13
Speaker
ah wait to i allow forty one
00:19:18
Speaker
Yeah. um I don't know, man. Arkansas State, you just don't have enough answers on the defensive side of the ball to stop. But Troy could either lean on the run, you know, with...
00:19:29
Speaker
love it or Tay Meadows, or I don't i don't know Tay Meadows is hurt or whatever, but, um, you know, you could lean on the run and have kill crease play like a very, you know, small ball type of game where it's like little few completions, um, you know, keep, keep away, ah for making mistakes, just basically play, keep away with the ball. Don't, don't make any, you know, dumb throws, try to push the ball down the field. We just try to kind of take care of, of business and move out of here.
00:19:58
Speaker
i think I think, too, what you said to your point about Texas State and Brad Jackson and how that relates to Arkansas State, Jalen Rayner has like zero margin for error.
00:20:09
Speaker
like if he's not If he's not fantastic, they're barely beating the best team in the conference by one point ah on an
Troy's Conference Advantage
00:20:19
Speaker
island game that everybody has you know presumably on TV, ah which is a tough look.
00:20:26
Speaker
so Troy has shown you know that defense is still spotty. like We don't know what they're going to do on a week-to-week basis, but i've seen i have a better feeling about Troy's defense that Arkansas State's defense is not good, and there's not really any way to spin that. so I think the Trojans win this one fairly comfortably.
00:20:47
Speaker
ah you know the The margin of victory might be inside 7.5, but it won't be one of those where... you know Troy played Texas State and it literally came down to like the last you know who had the ball last in double overtime. like This isn't going to be that.
00:21:02
Speaker
Something want you to to watch for this week, and I'll watch for it as well, but in this game, because we feel pretty confident that Troy's going to be able to pass the ball fairly well,
00:21:12
Speaker
um I want us to figure out why Troy is a bit of an exception to the rule. And maybe they're just the exception that proves the rule. But Troy doesn't have that guy receiving wise. They really don't.
00:21:26
Speaker
um I'm looking at their numbers right now. Their leading receiver on the team has 23 receptions, but they have seven guys, six guys with at least 15 catches on the year.
00:21:37
Speaker
um You have five guys with at least 200 receiving yards, no one more than 340. your three receivers lead the jointly lead the team with three touchdown receptions.
00:21:48
Speaker
um and And so obviously it's working for them six and two um possibly headed to the conference championship game. We'll find out in a couple of weeks when they play Southern Miss, I want to find out that's kind of my goal for the weekend. I'd like you to join me as we try to figure out why they are different than um Other teams that you were rightfully critical of, I think that it's it's typically not a successful formula.
00:22:12
Speaker
So try to figure out what what's different about Troy. I think what's different about them is, do you have... Pull up their schedule real quick. I'm going to give minute.
00:22:23
Speaker
Okay. In this six-game or five-game winning streak, what's the best team they've beaten? That's a great point. um I mean, I'm not going to discredit them because there are a lot of teams in the conference who aren't winning the easy games. They're struggling with with everything.
00:22:43
Speaker
That's a really good point. Let me read these teams off. A four-point win against Buffalo. You win by seven against South Alabama, who's now, what, the second-worst team in the Sun Belt?
00:22:54
Speaker
In overtime. In overtime. Texas State in overtime, who has easily... No. it Second worst defense, I'd say, but in front of Southern.
00:23:07
Speaker
I mean, you know, Southern can't stop anybody for anything. They're in the bottom tier. I'm not going to give you second worst, but they're definitely bottom tier. Sure. ah UL Monroe, who can't move the football, and Louisiana, who has the worst offensive line blocking-wise and the worst receiving weapons per PFF.
00:23:26
Speaker
Those are their wins. And I'm like, yeah ah again, i don't I'm not taking anything away from them. But they could drop... You know, an 8-4 season and in year two for Gerard Parker would not be anything to scoff at. but But it's like, they might beat Arkansas State and Georgia State, and they might drop games at Old Dominion and at Southern Miss, and they're going to be eight and four But they played probably the softest conference schedule. I mean, they've only got two teams with, what, two conference teams with winning records on their schedule this year?
00:24:01
Speaker
So... I think we'll then i guess I guess we'll have to then look how it shakes out at the end of the season because we look at Old Dominion, a team that we've criticized for inefficacy within their weapons.
00:24:15
Speaker
um Like you've got Liberty, we're looking at Virginia Tech, we're looking at App, but then we're also looking at Marshall and James Madison. So I guess this is a question that would be better answered at the end of the year when we have the full body of work because they play such disparate schedules and you know you're getting good teams at bad times or whatever, but...
00:24:38
Speaker
I mean, you play, okay, here here are your tough conference games, and I know I just read off the schedule. You play the number one team in the West and southern miss at Southern Miss to end the season, which is, is i I think Southern Miss is still a better football team than Troy is, so I think that's going to be a win for Southern Miss.
00:24:55
Speaker
Then you play who, as it sits today, conference-wise, I'm just looking at the standings. I don't actually think this talent-wise, is fourth in the Sunbelt East in Old Dominion. That's your other hard game.
00:25:09
Speaker
You don't play James Madison. You don't play a Coastal Carolina team that's 3-1 in the conference. You don't play a Marshall team that's 2-1 in the conference and has found a quarterback and an offensive identity and stuff like that.
00:25:23
Speaker
Yeah, yeah you this is like the easiest conference schedule of all time. And ah again, you know, as somebody who their pro team has an incredibly easy, ah you know, schedule this year.
00:25:34
Speaker
I'm not I'm not saying like taking anything away. I'm just saying when you add the context, you're like, okay, I can see why they don't necessarily need someone to be an alpha receiver for them.
00:25:46
Speaker
Because they haven't needed it. they're They're playing a lot of teams that struggle to score at all. So i'm ah I'm like, yeah, that makes sense that they're able to run the ball, play ball control.
00:25:58
Speaker
you know On the off game, Kilcrest can throw a bunch of touchdowns and for 400 yards against Texas State, but he's not doing that every week. You know? Interesting. Interesting.
00:26:10
Speaker
That's all I have. I
Closing: Social Handles and Future Guest Teaser
00:26:12
Speaker
don't know if you had any last thoughts on that game before we sign off today, but Zeke, let everybody know where they can find you on socials. Yeah, man. You can find me on socials at Zeke Palermo. Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O. We post about the show there. we Yeah, that's the only reason you need to go there.
00:26:29
Speaker
At Zeke Palermo. Email the show, warmotherfans at gmail.com. You were like, that's the only reason you need to go to my page. You know, I'm great at selling myself. That's really one of my strong suits.
00:26:41
Speaker
You should hear me in interviews. I'm excellent. Yeah. I'm not as bad as the guy you fired. How about that? um ah Yeah. Follow us on all of our platforms, YouTube, ah Twitter, whatever, at warmotherfans. You can follow me on Twitter at watchthestone.
00:26:58
Speaker
We will be back next week. We will have a former Texas state writer for underdog dynasty. Join us. And he wants to, we want to pick his brain. We want to figure out what is wrong with this team.
00:27:10
Speaker
Is there a GJ Kenny mindset problem in San Marcos before we also wanted to get them on one time before they took off to the pack 12. And we basically never speak about them again.
00:27:23
Speaker
Um, But this has been a really weird team this year, and we want to find out more before they kind of set sail. And who knows what G.J. Kenny and Brad Jackson end up doing in the future. It may not be in San Marcos, but we will be back with that next week on Ford Weather Fans.