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2025 Sun Belt Football: Week 11 Recap
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Brian and Zeke are back to run down all of the week 11 action in the Sun Belt, including Georgia Southern defeating Appalachian State in Boone on Thursday, and what it may mean for Dowell Loggains' future.
Elsewhere, the pair breaks down some thrilling matchups between Southern Miss and Arkansas State, as well as James Madison holding off Marshall to remain undefeated in the conference.
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Transcript
Weekly Upsets in Sunbelt Games
00:00:16
Speaker
Welcome everybody in to Warm Weather Fans, the Sunbelt Podcast. My name is Brian Stone, joined again this week by Zeke Palermo. ah Zeke, we talked about this last week. This is kind of a ah now a running theme through two weeks.
00:00:32
Speaker
Basically, we have one sort of upset game per week, and it feels like the rest of the games, if you're taking them on face value, like favorites, underdogs, like from a betting perspective, it feels like You may be a point off or so, but the rest of these games, other than the one game per week these last two weeks, have kind of gone chalk.
00:00:54
Speaker
And we kind of I felt like we kind of saw that in week 11, but well we'll definitely dive into that. z how have you been?
Sunbelt Conference Hierarchy
00:01:00
Speaker
I'm good, man. You're you're right. it There's a pretty clear hierarchy within the conference, and we'll talk about some games that were close or closer than maybe I anticipated. I know that the last game that we're going to talk about, Texas State, ah Louisiana, was one that I got wrong.
00:01:17
Speaker
Just kind of looking ahead um for last week when we were looking ahead rather. so it But it was a relatively chalky week, and it's because we have such clearly defined tiers in the conference right now. There's the very clear, obviously James Madison supersedes everybody else, but then there's this like Southern Miss,
00:01:39
Speaker
Old Dominion, and like I guess maybe in recent weeks, Coastal Carolina is kind of flirting with this, like, we're the top ah third. You have a very clearly defined middle third of, like, Arkansas State can win on any given week.
00:01:55
Speaker
Louisiana could kind of win on any given week. App feels like they can win games sometimes. And then there's this very clearly defined bottom where it's like, we have the Georgia State, obviously, um ULM at times.
00:02:08
Speaker
so you know i think as we just get through more um ah through more conference games, there just becomes less and less surprises. Certainly.
00:02:19
Speaker
um All right, so let's start off with the game that we had on Thursday.
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Recap
00:02:23
Speaker
It was the ah the Georgia Southern-Appalachian State rivalry game. um georgia so or Georgia Southern ah ultimately comes out with a 25-23 win. overall takeaways were...
00:02:35
Speaker
ah my kind of overall takeaways were This was one of the best games I saw from JC French ah in his entire starting tenure at Southern.
00:02:47
Speaker
I mean, I felt like we threw for 352, which how many times has he passed 300 yards in the box score? Like not often. ah You know, app trotted out AJ Swan again at quarterback.
00:03:03
Speaker
I was sitting there in the first half, you know, Southern goes into halftime up 19 to three. And I'm like, I tweeted it out from our account. I was like, at what point do we just say enough of this and just put JJ Cole back in for the rest of the season and just say,
00:03:18
Speaker
enough like we cannot have it because a j Swan in the first half of this game was dreadful he couldn't do anything like he was missing th throws left and right there were a number of like third downs where there would be a guy running a route that was wide open and he'd just throw it over their head by 10 yards and then there would be a play
00:03:39
Speaker
but ah preceding that where he would drop it into a bucket between two defenders and you're like this is the ultimate like Jekyll and Hyde experience where it's like, you can layer it in over a defender's head or between two defenders that are on a receiver, but then you can't make an easy throw on third and six to like convert and keep the drive alive.
00:04:00
Speaker
So, Basically, Southern jumps out 19 to three in the first half, and then they add basically two field goals rest of the game, and App is playing catch up. App sort of has like a fake comeback in the in the second half or the fourth quarter where scored two touchdowns. But Georgia Southern holds on. They're able to so come away with a win in this one.
Challenges for Georgia Southern
00:04:21
Speaker
um I'll go ahead and answer the question that I feel like you're going to ask. ah This doesn't change anything for me as far as how I feel about Elton. I mean, I'm sorry. like you The two conference games that you've won this year, it is very nice to beat Georgia State and App State, like your your two rival schools in the Sun Belt.
00:04:41
Speaker
I can't just erase from my mind, like, you got your butt kicked handed to you by James Madison. You got your butt kicked at home handed to you by Southern Miss.
00:04:52
Speaker
And you got your butt kicked against Arkansas State a couple weeks ago. that This win does not eliminate those for me. the All the problems are still there. We have seen defensively last year against James Madison, Georgia Southern can do this where they'll show up for like a random week and look like a passable defense.
00:05:12
Speaker
And then the next week, you know, they they play coastal after this. If Samari Collier had 130 yards rushing and three scores next week, I wouldn't be shocked. I would be like, yeah, this is this is ah this is about right.
00:05:24
Speaker
Yeah. something You said this last week when we were previewing the episode that any time a team throws the ball against Georgia Southern, it feels like a wasted down.
00:05:35
Speaker
um And I understand that they were down 19-3 at halftime, so you're kind of forced into a situation where you feel like you've got to really force the ball downfield. Sure.
00:05:45
Speaker
But why are we letting AJ Swan let it fly 51 times? um Where's Rashad DeBinion been really in the back half of the year? He hasn't touched 20 carries in a
AJ Swan's Performance Analysis
00:05:55
Speaker
game since set September 13th.
00:05:59
Speaker
Is there an injury that we don't know about? Is there... Like, I don't know where... his volume and then thereby production has gone. He takes only, um let me make sure, 12 carries in this game for 40 yards, his lowest yards per carry ah of the season.
00:06:19
Speaker
I thought that was going to be the recipe for very easy success in this game. was going to be get Rashad Dominion to like, you know, 180, 190, as we've seen so many other running backs do against Georgia Southern, and then kind of coast from there.
00:06:34
Speaker
Can I georgia other be honest can i yeah honest really quick with you about what I saw from Dominion? I don't know if there's an injury or whatever either. He looks like he had no juice. he he He's not breaking tackles.
00:06:48
Speaker
he He doesn't look slow, but there's no running away from defenders. It's just sort of like... plotting kind of is the best way I can put it. Like Jakari Lewis in this one had six carries for 50 yards ah for app and a touchdown. He looked way better in like limited duty than I thought Dubinian looked ah again.
00:07:10
Speaker
You know, there may be an injury. We don't know about something like that, but he he just looks like he has no juice carrying the ball. And I don't know if that's things have kind of just cascaded on him or I think what happened in this one specifically, I can't speak to kind of the other ones game plan wise.
00:07:27
Speaker
Southern felt like they sold out absolutely to stop the run and was like, if AJ Swan beats us, we'll live with it. Sure. and And they they can't do that with these other teams that they're playing. When you're playing Southern Miss, you can't sell out to stop the run and have Braylon Braxton toss three touchdowns on your head.
00:07:44
Speaker
You can't sell out to stop the run against Kenyon Clay and have Jalen Rayner drop three touchdowns on your head. Like, that's not feasible. So when you go play a team that doesn't have a quarterback as good as those guys or Alonzo Barnett or whoever, you can't just sit back and go, all right, well, if the quarterback beats us, they they beat us.
00:08:04
Speaker
You can't do that with another team like you can against App, where it's like, AJ Swan will just have these games where he just seems to have the yips. And... he just can't hit a receiver. And that feels like what happened on Thursday.
00:08:17
Speaker
Yeah. ah Really mercurial, I guess, from apps per perspective in this one, because it it felt, I mean, you and I were both pretty on the same page that this felt like a pretty chalkable win for App State. um I saw on Twitter some discourse ah calling for Loggins fire.
00:08:36
Speaker
I think that's, I mean, it's his first year. I premature, yeah. yeah can we be Can we be for real for a second? What are we doing? i That's crazy. He's basically like 500. And I understand the Sunbelt record's not great.
00:08:51
Speaker
But he didn't inherit. Now, if the if the beef is with not having an offensive coordinator, yes, I agree. That is, it's not. I'm willing to doubt it's without that nuance.
00:09:02
Speaker
Maybe, but if that is if that is the case for like, what are we doing?
Appalachian State Coaching Critique
00:09:08
Speaker
i i agree because I didn't really understand that coming into the year. But yeah, it's i mean it's year one. The guy's five is basically he's one game under 500. He could finish this season six and six. And then you're like, okay, so we made a bowl game in year one.
00:09:25
Speaker
The conference record's not great. we throw a lot of screens. They throw a lot of screens, uh, that probably that needs to stop, uh, either throw the ball down the field or get get looking for another job because you can't have, and I understand swans accuracy is all over the place. If you don't trust your quarterback to throw the ball further than five yards down the field, then you need to switch to the other quarterback.
00:09:50
Speaker
It's kind of how I felt about it. Yeah. Yeah. But no, can't you can't fire a guy with a 500 record in year one. I thought that was crazy, especially as a guy who is right now kind of premature. We're not even through two years of my head coach, and I'm ready to put his head on the block. I thought that was crazy.
00:10:08
Speaker
Well, he has had to to make this argument. i think I think the problem is this, and I'm not even saying this to take a shot at like at because they're Georgia Southern's rival.
00:10:19
Speaker
I think that they are so used to like microwave results. Like I expect everything to be fixed in the two minutes that I set on my microwave. And if it's not fixed, then I don't like it.
00:10:31
Speaker
And it kind of happened a little bit with Sean Clark where it was like, they had some down times, AKA the year where, you know, they played 11 games and and didn't make a bowl and stuff like that.
00:10:42
Speaker
um And they were all upset about that. And then they went and played at a conference title game. I think the year after that, And everybody was fine with it. And then last year, the the wheels kind of came off, which is understandable.
00:10:55
Speaker
But they have not had seasons as bad as what Del McGee has had at Georgia State. That's why i think it's totally asinine, because like if they were two and eight right now, if they were South Alabama, i I could see them being like, yeah, this was a bad idea. Let's go ahead and can this guy, blah, blah, blah.
00:11:12
Speaker
Again, you're one and four in the Sun Belt, which is not great, but you're four and five. you're You have you know three games to end the season. You could feasibly end 500 and make a bowl game.
00:11:24
Speaker
In year one, that's not that you're not competing for a conference title, but you can't turn around and go, oh, this is unacceptable. We're six and six in a year one of this guy's tenure.
00:11:36
Speaker
I'm right there with you, man. I feel similarly. i think there's a point to be made about record being deceiving. You've got wins over Charlotte, Lindenwood, Oregon State, and Georgia State. We're not really talking the premier teams of even G5, but G6. But I don't know. That that was something i just wanted to mention because it it was a discourse that I saw and I i was taken aback by.
00:12:02
Speaker
The couple other things to ah Georgia Southern had some receiver step up on Thursday that like, frankly, haven't done anything all year. ah Namely, I was down on Daylon Cobb coming into this game and rightfully so like he's been bad this year.
00:12:19
Speaker
i mean, he was good in this when he had eight catches, 57 yards, you ah you know who was the Camden Brown was good once again. And then Marcus Sanders was another guy that like, frankly, hasn't done anything all year. Like we, Georgia Southern has been begging for another guy to step up opposite Camden Brown. And literally everybody has passed the book to someone else and been like, not me, you do it.
00:12:43
Speaker
So it was nice to see those guys show up. However, it's, It's too little too late at this point. Like it's your four again, your four Georgia Southern is four and five.
00:12:55
Speaker
This is not year one for Clay Helton. This is year four. He has a losing record as a a head coach at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern up until this tenure has never employed a coach beyond year three that had a losing record at the school.
00:13:12
Speaker
So this is uncharted waters. And again, yes, it's great to beat Georgia state and app state. However, they they're non-competitive in the conference. They self eliminated themselves from the East race before Halloween, i would say, um which is awful.
00:13:33
Speaker
ah You know, up until this week, the rush defense was the second, third worst in the country. All of those things like, ah my My fear with this game is that our AD has the memory of a goldfish and immediately goes, oh, Clay Hilton just saved Georgia Southern football by winning this one football game.
00:13:54
Speaker
That's my fear, is that he's going to turn around and go, you know what? Everybody was upset at him. He won this one game. we're all We're back on even ground. And I'm like, no, no, no.
00:14:05
Speaker
ah Again, you are out of the conference race long before Halloween even happened. So I do not want to hear like a sentiment come out of the athletic department of like everybody's good now because we won one football game.
00:14:18
Speaker
That's what don't want to hear. Yeah, I think you guys are probably in this spot that um we'll we'll see how it plays out with Old Dominion after Colton Joseph and ricky ro ah how Ricky Ronnie plays out post-Colton Joseph. But like I've said that Arkansas State has been in this position for a couple years where making a bowl game is kind of your worst case scenario because that is good enough.
00:14:42
Speaker
to extend your coach good enough to give him the extra year. And that's why we're on year five of Butch Jones. Um, it, after, you know, a very unimpressive eight and five last year and will be a very unimpressive, like seven and five or seven and whatever they go this year. So, um, I think you guys are kind of in that same purgatory and I, I do not wish that upon any anyone.
00:15:06
Speaker
I don't know, honestly, if we are. And the only reason I say that is it it clearly felt like... You know, Helton had a press conference like last week leading up to this game and literally came out and like apologized for underperformance. And I'm like, in 2023, that was year two for him.
00:15:28
Speaker
He was I mean, I tweeted this out from our account. He was basically telling the fan base to go F themselves while Davis Brin threw a million interceptions. Like, there is a press conference where he talks to a guy from the paper in town and basically is, like, gives him, like, very short, like, terse answers that are, like, I trust the offense.
00:15:48
Speaker
Get out of my face is basically the answer he gave. And they ended that season spectacularly awful. And that's that's just what I mean is, like, there clearly is something here. Like someone, people are feeling the heat, like regardless of like one win on your schedule, like next year, if he comes into this season, next season with JC French, no Josh Dallas, no chance gamble, and doesn't replace those guys.
00:16:17
Speaker
And I think he's going to end up having to fire both coordinators. If he's going to be back next year, because The defense has not been good, which we've gone over multipletu multiple times.
00:16:29
Speaker
The offense has had these, like, fits and starts where they're okay, and then they're terrible, and, like, can't score, and then they're okay again. Like, there needs to be a baseline level of, like, consistency.
00:16:41
Speaker
All of those things are still, like, moving parts, so... That to me tells me that at least somebody, there's a fire under someone to like, things need to change or this is going to this is going to go out the window pretty quick.
00:16:55
Speaker
So my my feeling though is what happens is he fires both coordinators. They come back next year with this ghost ship of a team and then they win like three games and they fire him after like week 10.
00:17:09
Speaker
and then we're And then we basically wasted a whole season because Southern did this with Lunsford. where when shy works, uh, transferred to Louisville, the quarterback in after 2020, they basically came into this season with like a barren roster and, and a bunch of guys that had never couldn't play quarterback.
00:17:30
Speaker
And then they just mailed in a whole season. So like, I have a feeling that's kind of what's going to happen is like, no one's going to want to sign on to be Clay Helton's assistant, knowing he could be fired like immediately.
00:17:41
Speaker
next year. So he's going to be scraping the bottom of the barrel for assistance and then they're going to waste the entire 26 season being bad and firing him. And then we're all just going to kind of be like, this was the result we all kind of saw coming. Like, I don't know why you put this off a whole football season. Like the, the buyout didn't go down enough for it to make a real impact.
00:18:02
Speaker
So I don't know. We can move off this game. but it was It was a good win, but it it doesn't alleviate any of the concerns that any of the fan bases had just because he won one football game. like that's That's dumb.
00:18:14
Speaker
um All right. Saturday's games. Let's talk about this one. So James Madison beats Marshall This one actually was close ah for a while.
James Madison vs. Marshall Highlights
00:18:27
Speaker
ah It basically came down to... Marshall was down, I think it was 28-23 with like, I can't remember how much time was left. It was like six minutes or something to go, five minutes.
00:18:41
Speaker
And they went forward on a fourth and one. They got stuffed with, I think it was Andre Roberts, the running back. He gets stuffed. JMU gets the ball back. They run two plays, and then they throw a touchdown ah to Wayne Knight.
00:18:56
Speaker
That basically sealed the game, and then that was it. It was 35-23 from there. JMU comes away with the win, but Marshall held held serve better than I i thought, although Carlos Del Rio Wilson was was not good by any stretch of the imagination in this game. yeah Do you have his ADOT on this one?
00:19:17
Speaker
Yeah. ah yard His yards per attempt was 7.8, and his ADOT was 9.8. Interesting. Okay, because through watching this game, it felt like he had gone back to what we saw earlier in the year of, like, check down Charlie.
00:19:33
Speaker
Sorry, yeah. it end up My bad. I read TJ Finley's off. ah yeah it was It was one layer below. ah Carlos Del Rio Wilson, yard per attempt, 4.5. His ADOT was...
00:19:44
Speaker
his a dot was
00:19:48
Speaker
Yeah, it says ADOT was 9.8. I don't think that's correct, but that's what PFF has it at. Because what I was saying is that it felt like he went back to those Checkdown Charlie games that we had earlier in the year um where it was like, shoot, man, it's awesome that you can throw for 70%, 72% consistently.
00:20:12
Speaker
um But when you're doing it with like a negative ADOT or ADOT that's less than one, I don't know how much that speaks to you as a quarterback. Um, and in this game, i again, i guess we've got a questionable a dot number here, but the accuracy wasn't there. The completion percentage wasn't there finishes, uh, below 50%.
00:20:33
Speaker
um I want to talk about the fourth down decisions from Marshall in this game. ah You talked about the fourth and I think it was fourth and two. They give it off to Antoine Roberts, who went off in this one, 121 on 20 carries. That's his second consecutive hundred yard game in back to back weeks.
00:20:52
Speaker
Uh, where's he been? If he had shown up a little earlier in the season, maybe we could be talking about a different, uh, season and trajectory for Marshall that is right now below 500. Um, but they took field goals.
00:21:05
Speaker
Um, let me see twice from James Madison, ah territory, or I'm sorry, they punted twice from James Madison's territory, the 45 and 41, both of those ah like five and three yards to go, which felt like really conservative, I guess, if you're hanging around with a team that's better than you.
00:21:27
Speaker
You would rather pin them back than give them ball at midfield, I suppose. um But I would argue that the, I would say the counter argument to that is if you have fourth and five at the 41, your opponent's 41, convert that and you can, you can get a big step up on them, right? A touchdown there does you wonders, especially as Marshall for most of the game was kind of one possession right?
00:21:52
Speaker
Again, the other counter argument to that is when you see them go first ah go for it on fourth late in the game, you talked about the the failure on fourth and two late in the game on the eight-yard line. I think this was their last drive. You take a sack on fourth and eight. um or fourth and goal from the eight. So ah maybe they just don't have the juice there.
00:22:13
Speaker
ah You also take a field goal on from the five yard line that again, cuts it to a one possession game from two. But if you, in that situation, Marshall was down eight points. If you score instead and get the two point conversion, we're talking in tie ball game.
00:22:30
Speaker
um Again, you then have the Wayne Knight play. I found it all puzzling. you cant You can't beat a team of James Madison's caliber by playing scared.
00:22:42
Speaker
It's like in soccer when you're playing for the draw. Right. This is the time to take the training wheels off. When you're playing the number one team in the conference and you have to beat them in order to give yourself a chance to go to the Sunbelt title game, you can't be taking...
00:23:02
Speaker
chip shot field goals, you can't be punting you know in their own territory like when it's a fourth and five or less. like it's just It's really hard. Now, I will say...
00:23:14
Speaker
they ran the ball on JMU better than probably any team in the country has this year, which credit to them, but it came at the expense of throwing the football, which I, again, Carlos Del Rio Wilson was 16 of 35 for one 54 and one touchdown.
00:23:33
Speaker
Um, but I don't think he even passed a hundred yards passing until like late in the third quarter. So they were playing very, very conservative, both from a going forward on fourth down and both from a play calling perspective. They were not putting the ball in the air until they absolutely had to.
00:23:53
Speaker
And he, I don't know if it's a function of just not having the receiving weapons. Like I think DeMarcus Lacey is pretty good, but everybody else kind of on this sheet, I'm just like,
00:24:05
Speaker
none of these guys really stand out like when I watch them play. So pretty much if you can't get the ball to DeMarcus Lacey, everybody else is just kind of a grab bag of of talent.
00:24:16
Speaker
And you can't have that and a quarterback that just is offline. I mean, it was again, 16 of 35 in this game. So you can run the ball. You can't run the ball as much as they did and be timid at the same time.
00:24:33
Speaker
That's the problem. I concur. I think the real positive, though, is how well this is as good as we've seen a Sunbelt team play James Madison all year, right? Yeah. Even against Georgia State, it's like you lost to a team that scored 14 points. I'm not going to give you a pat on the back after that performance.
00:24:52
Speaker
um so And on Georgia State picked the wrong quarterback to play. Yeah. as well so like I can't I can't be like well you know you hung in there fought well it was like no Barnett was really bad and you know when we had um the JMU guy on a couple weeks ago like he even acknowledged it and was like yeah Fitz was like it was bad like there's no way there's no way to sugarcoat it so it was less of a function of what Georgia State did and more of just lack of execution um by JMU so yeah
00:25:25
Speaker
And I think a good litmus test for Marshall, like from a season long perspective, is going to be see what Marshall or James Madison does to app next week. um granted James Madison hosts, whereas they were on the road.
00:25:38
Speaker
I think that's an interesting litmus test. ah Like, I think the Dukes are going to put the beat down on them. I really do. um and so considering you're in similar spots from a program perspective, first-year coaches ah that had relatively weak rosters coming into it, um i think Marshall's in a really interesting spot.
00:25:59
Speaker
um and And so I was impressed by their performance here. i um I think the thing, too, is if app is really set on playing AJ Swan again, i think that game is going to get ugly really fast because there were a lot of opportunities that like even Georgia Southern, who played fairly well on Thursday, didn't take advantage of when AJ Swan gave them a chance.
00:26:24
Speaker
JMU will jump on them, especially at home, and it won't be. can you imagine a j Swan playing off the back foot down three scores trying to like make a throw into tight coverage multiple times on a drive like that to me screams oh no like and we we talked about DeBinion he's again I don't know what the problem with him is if he's just like out of juice or whatever they're not going to be able to run the ball the way that Marshall did unless ah you know that running back what was his name Jakari ah Lewis unless they give him more work like they're not going to be able to do what Antoine Roberts did like because Dubinian again I don't know what happened to him he seems like a car that has like a flat tire that is like trying to drive on the interstate and it just is not it's not happening so you can't go anywhere no
00:27:22
Speaker
So Alonzo Barnett, we didn't mention him yet, but he played well in this one. 14 of 24, 270, three touchdowns, one pick, also added 32 yards on the ground. Wayne Knight, I mentioned him, had 79 yards receiving and a touchdown as well as 87 yards rushing and a score as well.
00:27:41
Speaker
ah He was kind of the player of the game. for JMU. I mean, JMU only not notched one sack, which when I looked at how poor Del Rio Wilson was playing, I was like, oh, he must be under pressure constantly.
00:27:54
Speaker
I think they finished. This is like in the advanced stats category. I think they finished with like four hurries at of the quarterback JMU did. So it wasn't as if they were just on him every play.
00:28:08
Speaker
They had one sack and I think like four hurries. So he just was old fashioned, not great. And you you can't beat JMU when it's like what we said, you know, can't throw the ball until you absolutely need to.
00:28:22
Speaker
You're running the ball, but you're afraid to go forward on fourth and shorts. You're punting deep, you know, into the opponent's territory, like all of those things that works when you play ULM.
00:28:34
Speaker
That does not work when you play the best team in the conference. You can pin them a ULM, South Alabama, Georgia State team type deep and just be like, yeah, take it 98 yards. If you take it 98 yards, then go for it.
00:28:47
Speaker
JMU is like, we will take advantage of this. So I don't really understand the lack of aggression, I would say, as far as like what Tony Gibson and them did on Saturday. Yeah, but that that was my huge takeaway. But again, from ah from a program perspective, I think this is a really big win.
00:29:09
Speaker
Loss, win disguised as a loss for them. Yeah, moral, as as big as those can be or as fake as those can be, I think it is a ah good moral victory for them.
00:29:19
Speaker
Sure. All right, so the next game here, Southern Miss ah defeats Arkansas State
Southern Miss's Victory Over Arkansas State
00:29:27
Speaker
27-21. This one was close as well. It literally came down to the final play of the game.
00:29:32
Speaker
um I will say, though, Jalen Rayner played a really, really poor first game. first half slash first three and a half quarters because he eventually got pulled for a running quarterback that was like afraid to, they were afraid to let throw in flowers.
00:29:54
Speaker
And he really only came back in when they needed to kind of rally late and get back in this game, but they're down 27, 21. He takes them the way down. They have uh, they have a maybe you have the situation pulled up, but my my computer might catch on fire if I try to click too many things at once. But it was like they they were down to the 10, I want to say, of Southern Miss, and he throws an interception as kind of time expires, which I don't really blame him because you need to make a play in that situation. And if it gets picked off, like it's no different than an incompletion at that at that point.
00:30:30
Speaker
But he was he was really rough in this one, threw four picks, like I said, got pulled at one point, um you know, they, they did a good job rallying, but otherwise Southern miss kind of handled them. And then, and then the, the lack of rushing efficiency late that four minute offense of like, we get the ball, we need to kill clock.
00:30:55
Speaker
Southern miss doesn't really have that in their bag because everybody is just sort of meh running the football. Mm-hmm. I Southern Miss wins this game despite themselves.
00:31:07
Speaker
I, they left so much on this bone. ah Let me read you off their drives after Arkansas state turnovers. Arkansas state opens the game. First play of the game or from scrimmage ah is a fumble Arkansas Southern miss mind. You starting at their opposing 25 settles for a field goal.
00:31:28
Speaker
Uh, interception, you punted away interception. You send another interception right back. Uh, you have an interception that leads into halftime, whatever. Uh, and then in the second half interception, another field goal.
00:31:41
Speaker
And then as you said, the game ending, uh, interception that came when they, uh, in the end zone, uh, they were snapping from the 13. So real tight in, ah Southern miss really, really,
00:31:55
Speaker
Remember like five weeks ago we talked about ah Charles Huff's one deficiency? The guy seems incapable of creating red zone offense.
00:32:06
Speaker
ah Hello? You get six points off of turnovers. You're like, hello? One to one turnover to points off of turnover ratio.
00:32:17
Speaker
nuts Not good. Not good. Also, 12 penalties for 100 yards for Southern Miss in this one. ah My team is the highest penalized, most penalized ah by volume and by yardage in the country.
00:32:30
Speaker
ah You can't win games like that. You really can't. So Southern Miss pulls this one out despite everything. ah Shout out Josh Moten, though. Three of those five picks were by his hands. I couldn't figure out the last time that had happened in a Sunbelt game, but that last time a guy had three picks for a Southern Miss team was 2002. mean, that's just a legacy game, so...
00:32:55
Speaker
i mean that's a legacy game so Hats off to him. ah Southern Miss, dude. Because it's all about James Madison, right? We're at this point, especially after Troy lost their game.
00:33:07
Speaker
um Southern Miss feels like a chalk into the conference championship. It's all about what are you going to against James Madison? They're surely not going to let you get away with this.
00:33:19
Speaker
i'm No, no. Mind you, they're not even going to turn the ball over ah six times. let Let's make that clear. But you've got to capitalize on those moments, and Southern Miss has not. Southern Miss did not, and they have not.
00:33:37
Speaker
No. And um i will say, I know he threw a pick, but I was i was pretty surprised out of what ah Southern Miss got out of Landry Liddy, the backup. ah So Braylon Braxton gets banged up. I want to say this was either late first quarter, early second.
00:33:56
Speaker
And Liddy basically played an entire, all almost a full quarter of action. He ends up going four of six for 128, a touchdown and an interception. He throws a long touchdown to, I believe it's the one to Elijah Metcalf, which was a 76 yard touchdown.
00:34:14
Speaker
Listen, man, like we've come a long way from the Ethan Crawford, ah Tate Rodemacher not being able to complete a single pass. We got Frank Gore Jr. as the best quarterback on the roster. They've got two guys who he's he's not Braylon Braxton, obviously, but but you've got a guy that is like a capable backup.
00:34:35
Speaker
which is a long way from, like I said, last year when you didn't even have a capable starter to even depend on. So it's good to have a guy that can come in in a spot like that and like still make plays, keep you alive. He's not going to totally sink you, la, I'm sorry to do this ricochet shot to him, but a Daniel Beal where you're just like, oh, game's over.
00:34:57
Speaker
like we We put our backup in like, oh, we got no shot now. Now that's a name I've not heard a while. And for good reason.
00:35:09
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, it but it but it is that way. It's like a lot of these teams would be absolutely sunk if their starting quarterback got or hurt and they were able to, you know, stay alive against an Arkansas State team that coming into this one was four and one in the Sun Belt and was knocking on the door of like they win this game.
00:35:28
Speaker
Then they take ownership of the West and it the the destinies in their hands. But man, I, I, I know I've said this before. i know Arkansas state is not doing a good job supporting Jalen Rayner with the run game. I mean, their leading rusher was Devin Spencer with 47 yards. Um,
00:35:48
Speaker
um I don't want to put this all on them because frankly, you don't throw three interceptions that matter from Jalen Rayner without that, but it's just so hard to be that one dimensional and be like, all right, man, you got to go out and do everything for us offensively because if you don't go out there and lead us in rushing, you don't throw three, four touchdowns. Like we basically have no shot.
00:36:14
Speaker
yeah, go do it and then report back with results. Like that's just so tough to ask of a guy. ah You also get a performance here. Speaking of guys around Rainer, a come from the dead moment from Corey Rucker, a guy who has been, I mean, he where's he been for most of the year?
00:36:33
Speaker
um Seven catches in this one for 123 long of 55, no touchdowns, but I won't be mad. You made seven catches for one 23. um This guy, I mean, this is only, I'll say only, his third 100-yard receiving game, which, frankly, that's a lot. Not a lot of guys reach 300-yard games in a season.
00:36:56
Speaker
But especially after Jaquez Cross um got injured, it was... This was supposed to be the Jalen Rayner and Corey Rucker show.
00:37:07
Speaker
um yeah And again, I don't want to beat down on a guy who's got 51 catches for 600 yards, but this was supposed to be a thousand yard guy. This is a guy that was supposed to look at like Devin voicing a couple of years ago, right?
00:37:21
Speaker
Or Jalen Tolbert. There's like 90 catch guys at South Alabama from previous years. So target hogs. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. ah And it's like, sure, you can get Tyler Little, who has five catches in this game, or Tyler Fortenberry. These are, I think, tight ends with six catches in this game. It's like, you can get volume to those guys, but Rucker is supposed to... This is supposed to be the standard for Corey Rucker. um And again, I...
00:37:52
Speaker
we're not going to know until we get the 30 for 30 that certainly ain't coming about where, where did Corey Rucker go for like half of the 2025 season? Yeah. Like, this is supposed to be the Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne or whatever connection, you know, where it's like, we've got our quarterback, we've got our number one wide receiver, and we just kind of need to fill the spots out around them.
00:38:13
Speaker
It's Rucker has really made it tough. I feel like on Rainer this year, too, where it's like he has these disappearing act games. He didn't in this one, obviously, but he's yeah like disappearing act games where it's like.
00:38:26
Speaker
Listen, man, if you're the quarterback and you're your number one receivers just kind of hanging out ah out out there on an island by himself and he's not getting targets and you don't have a running game to to add on to it, like it makes it really, really tough to to be like, because here's the difference to me with like a Jalen Rayner at Arkansas State and a Colton Joseph at ODU.
00:38:50
Speaker
It's not so much. ODU does not have a guy of Corey Rucker's caliber, but what they've been really good about is getting different guys to like step up and contribute, like especially when they absolutely need it.
00:39:02
Speaker
Now there have been games where they, that didn't happen. Like Marshall, James Madison, second half, like stuff like that. But by and large, they've been pretty good about that. Arkansas state is truly like a grab bag of like,
00:39:15
Speaker
just roll some dice. And if it lands on odds, then we got nothing for you today. And if it's on evens, then we're good. And so it's just kind of like, what, what are you supposed to do with that? Like as a quarterback, you're like,
00:39:28
Speaker
I feel like Rainer has to be looking side-eye at Butch Jones sometimes and be like, all right, so let me get this straight. You built a team with not a great defense. You built a team that is so thin at the running back spot that if one guy gets hurt, we essentially are just not running the ball the rest of the season.
00:39:44
Speaker
And i have one guy to throw the ball to, and if he's like double, triple covered, then we just are pulling guys out of a hat. Like, okay, and you want me to make it work?
00:39:56
Speaker
I think another kind of difference between these offenses with excellent, excellent quarterbacks, again, there's a there's a pretty clear tier between Colton Joseph and Jalen Rayner, but I mean, it's certainly not as large as some of the other quarterback gaps.
00:40:12
Speaker
we're We're not talking about Aiden Armenta here, right? um Something that has confused me about Jalen Rayner and Arkansas State, their usage ah this year, is that they really don't draw it up for him.
00:40:26
Speaker
Like they, uh, old dominion draws it up for Colton Joseph. And again, old dominion has a very unique, like a slow mash and a very like QB power type offense. That's very unique, no difficult to pull off and requires a very specific personnel.
00:40:39
Speaker
um But in this game, you have Jalen Rayner running four times on scrambles and four times on design runs, right? more More often than not, those numbers are roughly comparable.
00:40:50
Speaker
Whereas when we look at ah Colton Joseph, he's getting so many design calls. Clearly not that big enough a deal because Jalen Rayner is stuck with Butch Jones and stuck with the Red Wolves. So ah maybe I'm making a mountain out of a molehill. He doesn't have to be.
00:41:05
Speaker
He could probably make a move if he really wanted to But my if he wanted to, wouldn't it have already happened? I don't know. I mean, we thought the same thing about um Buddy at Grayson McCall.
00:41:20
Speaker
And all a sudden, he was starting in an ACC school. And you're like, oh, same thing with like Gio Lopez. I mean, it hasn't gone well. But same thing, really, where it was like kind of hung around for a couple of years. And then it was like, oh, guess what?
00:41:35
Speaker
Duke has an opening this next year or whatever at quarterback. Like, let me go take my talents over there. At least they can cut. They have like an idea of what they want to run with me. Whereas Arkansas state, like some weeks it feels like it's drawn up to perfection. And then other weeks it feels like it's just,
00:41:52
Speaker
go out there and ah there's a, there's a term for like NBA offense where it's like ISO heavy on Twitter, where it's just like, do that guy. k It's like what it, what it's called, where it's like just ISO him and then just take him to the basket or, or step back and hit a three. And it's like, that kind of feels like,
00:42:10
Speaker
like what they do with Jalen Rainer some weeks. It's like, all right, man, it's all on you. Like you need to be our Shea Gildress Alexander out there. Like take the guy to the hoop or, or hit ah you know, fall away mid range or whatever. But like, other than that, we got nothing for you. We got no movement, nothing.
00:42:27
Speaker
So have fun. Yeah, exactly. All right. So that was that game. The next one, with this one was yours. I'm going to be honest. I did not watch this because I knew you would kind of be on top of it. And also this game did not really appeal to me all that much.
Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State Recap
00:42:43
Speaker
Coastal Carolina beats Georgia State 40 to 27. Uh... forty to twenty seven ah TJ Finley is back. Yeah. ah Was Cameron Brown injured or did TJ Finley have compromising photos of Hugh Jackson? How did he get back on the field?
00:43:00
Speaker
ah Yeah, if we were. So the final in this one, Coastal wins 40 to 27. Coastal was only up nine at halftime. it State was sticking around for a while.
00:43:11
Speaker
ah But come out of the locker room in the second half and where's Cameron Brown? It's TJ Finley. I thought we were done with this. I thought we had kind of gotten over this bump.
00:43:24
Speaker
Well, it's an undisclosed injury is my understanding. um Now that we have injury reports, maybe we'll see something pop up later this week as we look ahead to the upcoming game. But right now I understand it's injury for the sake of the program. I hope it's injury. I hope this wasn't just a choice to go back to TJ Finley.
00:43:44
Speaker
um And when you make that so ah soft benchings are so hot in football right now, aren't they? With McCarthy and Kyler Murray and now I guess Cameron Brown. Hey, take it to him, nine. ah weren't one But once that change is made, ah Coastal kind of runs away with it.
00:44:03
Speaker
They score two field or a field goal and then a touchdown in the third. ah Georgia State has semblance of maybe a comeback. They were down 40-14 in the fourth, so it probably wasn't going to happen. They scored two touchdowns in pretty quick succession to cut it to 40-27, but get no closer. Samari Collier's fun, man. I think Coastal is in a really good spot because, again, this is a possibly fraudulent 6-3.
00:44:34
Speaker
But what they have ah is very important. We see this at Old old Dominion. um We just talked about Arkansas State. ah Gosh, I'm trying to think of other guys in recent Louisiana when it was Zeon Chris for that 30 seconds.
00:44:51
Speaker
What you have is fun, and that's really important. ah Coastal is out of, not officially out, but pretty clearly out of the race for the East. um Again, I think they're a relatively fraudulent six and three but what they've got is a quarterback who's fun. 11 for 18 from Samari Collier.
00:45:11
Speaker
They really lean on the fact that he is not a great... ah He is a startable quarterback, you know, Aiden Armenta type. ah But what he has over Armenta is the ability to run 10 times for 123 yards in this one.
00:45:25
Speaker
um And again, like you you just need that at a program like Coastal where they're wearing glow-in-the-dark uniforms. Also there he's not, he's kind of like lunch Winfield in that he's not afraid to throw it down the field.
00:45:39
Speaker
I, he didn't do it a lot in this one. I mean, his, his a dot was seven and a half, so it wasn't anything crazy. It was pretty along the, uh, the lines of what you would kind of expect, uh, call your second highest passing grade in the Sunbelt, uh, per PFF this week at 84.5, just behind JC French.
00:45:57
Speaker
Um, um, Yeah, I mean, passing-wise, this was probably the best game we've seen from him, like efficiency. ah You know, he's had a couple of games where he was hovering around like the 30 to 40% completion percentage in games that they had won.
00:46:14
Speaker
ah This was a lot better than that. And then, like you said, really fun. He had an 85-yard run in this one, 10 carries for 123 and a score. They have Javon Edwards and Javon Simpkins.
00:46:26
Speaker
I feel like what it is is... And I know that you said that you feel like they're fraudulent, like a fraudulent six and three. And I don't necessarily disagree because we'll actually, you know what we'll see in the finale because they play James Madison, the last game of the season.
00:46:41
Speaker
And if they, if they don't drop another game, James Madison will have to play their starters to like get the win, um, or at least jump up on them.
00:46:53
Speaker
But what I've seen from them is like Collier kind of opens up the field for the run game in a way that like Tad Hudson did not. So, when we were lamenting Tad Hudson earlier this season and there, they, they had an inability to run the ball with Jalen, John, Javon, Javon Edwards, Javon Simpkins, because teams were just loading the box and being like, Tad Hudson's not going to do anything about this.
00:47:17
Speaker
So we can play 10 guys in the box and a single high safety. He's not throwing it over our head. And now with this caught with call, you're added. You've got a rushing threat.
00:47:27
Speaker
You've got a guy that is willing to throw the ball down the field. If it's there, um, you know, you haven't exactly ah had to have a a game where you get down and have to be a high volume passing offense.
00:47:42
Speaker
I think the closest thing we've seen was last week when they played Marshall. um But even that was still, it was still relatively in range and then they forced those turnovers and basically they were kind of back to their ah normal game scripts.
00:47:55
Speaker
But yeah, I mean, yeah like we said, they they are they're definitely not the best team in the East, but we were talking about Tim Beck being fired after like the first three, four weeks of the season, and now all of a sudden...
00:48:08
Speaker
Who knows? This could be another like bring him back for next season and then he stinks again and then we get rid of him. But this season at least has gone from being total DOA to like a fun team that can score and has like a quarterback with a fun play style.
00:48:24
Speaker
And when you're a team like Coastal, it's like if you're not going to compete for the East, you might as well be fun to watch because the The worst thing you can be is ULM where you're like, we're not good, but we make up for it by being boring as hell and no one wants to watch us on TV.
00:48:39
Speaker
And it's like, oh, cool. So at least yeah you're winning games and and it's a fun team to fun offense to watch. yeah so ah you You mentioned Collier opening up the run game for other guys. Something I want to point to, his 123 yards this in this game is the first Coastal runner this season to eclipse 100.
00:49:02
Speaker
ah You get Dominic Nicely came the closest in week two with 97 yards, and he has since... in himself, AWOL, never eclipsed. He was okay against Marshall, but not anything that. He was highly efficient, but ah he averaged 15 a carry, but he only touched the ball five times.
00:49:23
Speaker
Right. So it's like, what what are we what are we doing here? um Yeah. So that that's a big, big point for them is that it opens obviously for other guys. It opens it up for himself too. If like, you've got to be this lunch win field type. If you have to be the Colton Joseph where it's like, shoot, I, you've got to be the leading in both obviously passing, but also rushing.
00:49:44
Speaker
Um, we've seen, you can win games like that. That's not necessarily unsustainable. Right. Um, yeah. Good win for coastal is pretty easy.
00:49:55
Speaker
Um, you know, good luck to you guys. If you're having to watch TJ Finley play every week, cause, We've seen him this year. It's not been fun. um i was ah I was hoping that when i when I saw it wasn't Cameron Brown, they trotted out in the second half. I was hoping...
00:50:12
Speaker
like Darren Granger's from Conway. Is he in the area? Is he in the building? Do you want to throw on a Jersey man or something? then Like what's going on? well you Last week you talked about Chad powers. Maybe he picks Chad powers and wears like prosthetics to make himself look like either Cameron Brown or TJ Finley and comes out and and just throws like three touchdowns. And you're like, Whoa, where has this guy been all year? And it's like, Oh, please. That's Darren Granger.
00:50:42
Speaker
All right, so last game of the day, ah Louisiana defeats Texas State 42-39.
Louisiana vs. Texas State Thriller
00:50:50
Speaker
Louisiana kind of jumped on them. um You know, after the first quarter, it's 10-7 Texas State. Lincoln Pair rips off this 54-yard touchdown run.
00:51:00
Speaker
And then from there, it was... Touchdown, Lutch Winfield to Caden Jensen. Bill Davis run, 12-yard run. Lutch Winfield to Shelton Sampson. And then, boom, you know, by halftime, it's 35-17. And then it's, you know, Texas State's just trying to kind of claw themselves back into this game. And they eventually do so.
00:51:21
Speaker
They score a touchdown ah with 3-12 left. Brad Jackson throws a touchdown to Chris Dawn, which cuts it to the score that it was. And then... um you know Louisiana found a way to kind of kill the the clock at the end of this one, and then that was it.
00:51:37
Speaker
ah
00:51:39
Speaker
Texas State, you're going to finish winless in the Sun Belt your final year? That's so brutal. but because because the The more that time goes on those wins... those opportunities for wins are getting smaller and smaller.
00:51:54
Speaker
And it's like, I can't think of, I said this last week, I can't think of anything more humiliating than, than leaving and go into the pack 12 and being like, yeah, we went one in seven last year in the sunbelt, but we're here to dominate this year. It's like, okay, whatever you say, guys.
00:52:09
Speaker
Yeah. they They finished the year with at Southern miss and then host ULM and South Alabama. so it's like, You're going to get two chances with the Jags and the Warhawks.
00:52:23
Speaker
I feel confident they'll beat ULM. You would hope. I said South Alabama. I truly don't know, but you will. but Like the second Texas state scores 21 points. ULM is going to call their local governor and go. They're doing witchcraft out here.
00:52:41
Speaker
We're not this isn't allowed. and And he's going to be like, you're in Texas. There's nothing I can do to help you. So I can't fire him. I'm sorry. I can't fire. Yeah. i I can't fire. ah Yeah, I can't fire G.J. Kitty. I'm not his. I can't fire the 80 either. But yeah, Jackson played well in this game despite the loss. I mean, 26 33, 360, three hmm.
00:53:05
Speaker
three sixty three touchdowns um You know, was had one pick, but was the third highest PFF passing grade this week ah behind Collier and French.
00:53:16
Speaker
So, I mean, we we I feel like we kind of say this every week. It's like it's not his fault like that. You guys are losing games. He's putting up counting stats like he's, you know, Kurt Warner on the ninety nine Rams. And then they just they don't play any defense.
00:53:31
Speaker
Yeah, he's a very good quarterback, and it's just a matter of how long do you keep him around? How long does he want to stay there? um He is a redshirt freshman, so he's got three more years.
00:53:43
Speaker
um He's from Austin, so he's from Texas. um I don't know. They might have a guy for the next couple years. He might be set up really nicely. Or UT needs a a sub for Arch Manning after this year, and they call up Brad Jackson out of the bullpen, and they're like, you're a hometown boy that, you know, you're what Arch should have been from a dual threat perspective, like come play quarterback for Sarkeesian.
00:54:09
Speaker
So... We'll see. i and How well has Matthew Caldwell been doing for them? We'll see if they shy away from the Sunbelt quarterbacks. I don't think he's played this year.
00:54:20
Speaker
It's been arch basically all year, I think. um For better or worse. This was a result that ultimately surprised me. And maybe I was playing it safe because I feel like Texas State's offense is a little more of a known commodity than Louisiana's.
00:54:37
Speaker
um So I liked Texas State taking it in this one, but what we did get right, and actually we didn't talk about this, we got this ah right in the Southern app game as well, over under.
00:54:50
Speaker
There were going to be points here. There were always going to be points, just like there were never going to be points ah in in Southern App. Not 64 of them, or whatever the final number was.
00:55:02
Speaker
Certainly not. and you get 70-81 in this one from ah Texas State, Louisiana. Yeah. um Bo Sparks for Texas State, 10 catches, 186 and a touchdown.
00:55:15
Speaker
um You know, like I said, Shelton Sampson, five catches, 80 yards, two touchdowns in this one. He was, you know, a big ah receiver for them and was the seventh highest graded um receiver this week in the conference. Bo Sparks was the second highest behind Elijah Metcalf for Southern Miss. So,
00:55:37
Speaker
Yeah. Um, I'm not even going to bother clicking over to the defense tab. Cause I guarantee you none of these guys, uh, are show up on the the top 50 probably of that sheet. Uh, but yeah, good win for Louisiana.
00:55:51
Speaker
Um, you know This season, it's kind of similar right to what Coastal was dealing with, where it was like, you start off, you've got this quarterback that looks like he's dead meat, and and I'm talking about Daniel Beal. We didn't even see enough of of Walker Howard to make that determination, but um Daniel Beal, Tad Hudson, both of them look like dead meat to start with. Your season looks like it is dead before it even...
00:56:16
Speaker
um kind of kicks off. And then you uncover these like backups who have been pretty fun and and have some mobility and are willing to kind of chuck it ah deep and and take some chances.
00:56:27
Speaker
And now you know Coastal is in a much better spot ah just because you know they they kind of made that change earlier. But Louisiana is now 3-3 in the Sun Belt, whereas it seemed like in the beginning it was like we were looking like at a South Alabama, Georgia State level team.
00:56:45
Speaker
And now... yeah I mean, you know, they're going to be ULM in the year. They they play primetime Thursday night ah at Arkansas State on ESPN.
00:56:56
Speaker
They win that. The only thing between them and a bowl game is ULM. So... they'll they' And they'll beat ULM because like I said, and the second they score 21 points, ULM is going to be like, all right, wave the white flag. Let's get out of here.
00:57:09
Speaker
Yep. See you all next year. Yeah.
Sunbelt Week 11 Recap Conclusion
00:57:13
Speaker
All right. So that does it for all of the ah Sunbelt games for week 11. ah You can email the show, warmweatherfans at gmail.com. You can follow us on all of our ah social platforms, Twitter, YouTube, ah at warmweatherfans. You can follow me at watchthestone.
00:57:30
Speaker
Zeke, let them know where they can find you. Yeah, man. It's really easy. At Zeke Palermo, Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O. All right. And we will be back later this week on Thursday to talk over all of the week 12 games as the regular season in the Sunbelt winds down.
00:57:46
Speaker
This has been another edition of Warm Weather Fans.