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2025 Sun Belt Football: Week 9 Preview
0 Playsin 7 hours
It's hot seat bowl week, as 1-6 Georgia State welcomes in South Alabama sporting an equal record. Will Major Applewhite or Dell McGee be shown the door after losing this one?
Elsewhere, Brian and Zeke talk over Georgia Southern and Arkansas State in a matchup of two mercurial teams, and discuss whether Old Dominion bounces back from two straight losses against Appalachian State at home.
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Transcript
Introduction to Episode 2
00:00:15
Speaker
Welcome everybody in for our second episode of War Weather Fans of the Week.
Week 9 Game Highlights
00:00:21
Speaker
We are here to run down all of the Week 9 games, including tonight's showdown but between South Alabama and Georgia State, if you want to call it that.
00:00:32
Speaker
um Zeke, how's it going with you, man? um I'd be better if I didn't have to watch this game tonight.
00:00:43
Speaker
I mean, pretty simply put. i It's got to be the the matchup of the... It is the two worst teams. and And it's like, somebody's got to win, right?
00:00:55
Speaker
like we The best, best outcome, I think, to be representative of the true game that will be played and of these two teams ah is a power outage in Atlanta and they just can't play the game.
00:01:11
Speaker
Yeah. I think the best representation is they get they are tied seventeen seventeen and then the game runs until Saturday.
00:01:26
Speaker
until the they They're just in 17th overtime. Neither team can convert a two-point conversion. ah We're down to quarterback fives on the depth chart. People are like passed out due to exhaustion.
00:01:39
Speaker
ah you know Bishop Davenport's taking a nap on the bench like halfway through one of the overtimes. like I think that would be the best representation because it's like, the the The team that can't score against the team that doesn't really play all that much defense. And then we just keep going back and forth.
00:01:56
Speaker
Yeah, i I said this last week ahead of the Georgia State-Georgia Southern game, and I think I was being a little facetious in that moment, and I'm starting to mean it more um and starting to hope for it more.
Coaching Dynamics and Team Changes
00:02:10
Speaker
Somebody needs to get fired after this game from either side, whether it's Major Applewhite or Del McGee, or we have talked all season long about, for some reason, Hugh Jackson is involved in Georgia State football because – he did such a great job at grambling, I guess.
00:02:26
Speaker
Um, so well ah who was the offensive coordinator for state last year that you, said you said he just like took a step back and like became a, position yeah Yeah. Yeah. So it was Jim Cheney last year and it was, yeah I really don't know the full story. um He just kind of, I think it was like a family medical thing.
00:02:50
Speaker
He was here. it was his first year there. um and he he had brought in under Del McGee, he brought McGee, brought in new coordinators and Hugh Jackson was like general manager or whatever.
00:03:01
Speaker
And so Chaney stepped down relatively late in the offseason this upcoming season. um And, yeah, ah so maybe maybe there's to lament what could have been, but it's not like we saw a ton out of a Georgia State offense last year that really left a ton. Like, oh man, if only Chaney was still here. Right.
00:03:22
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I guess for all of his faults, it's like, Hugh Jackson's not the problem because the offense isn't the issue with State, but their run game leaves a lot to be desired.
00:03:35
Speaker
And i don't know who who make the who made the final call on Cameron Brown up until this past Saturday when they lost to Southern, but whoever made that call that it needed to be TJ Finley splitting reps 50-50, they need to be fired.
00:03:49
Speaker
i don't I don't know if it was Jackson pulling for that or if it was Del McGee, but... Somebody needs to get the ax.
Game Outcomes and Betting
00:03:57
Speaker
And it's like, if if South Alabama loses as a six and a half point road favorite, definitely needs to be major Applewhite. Because I don't know how at one and seven.
00:04:09
Speaker
and i And I actually like Georgia State here because I've seen more signs of life with the Cameron Brown offense than I have from South Alabama. I may actually even throw Georgia State money line into a ah ah parlay ah just because I i feel like Bishop Davenport's offense is like on life support and like the the thing is like barely going every like five minutes and otherwise it's just flatlined like they don't have anything really going for him.
00:04:39
Speaker
so So I mean someone's got to win it. Yeah. ah Well, I i actually, i would like to officially say i like Georgia State if Cameron Brown plays.
00:04:50
Speaker
If it is a non-Cameron Brown quarterback, I would like to ah abstain. Let's say that. Well, you you tell your sportsbook back and or tell them that and let me know what they say.
00:05:02
Speaker
Get back to me on that one. Yeah, they should void my bet if Cameron Brown doesn't play. Because i it's not like we get – like I said, it's not like we get these structured injury reports the way that we do for like NFL.
00:05:13
Speaker
we get the We have the availability reports. But like last week, I think Georgia State had maybe 20 guys on it as just like questionable or doubtful. It's like, what what do we – That's my issue is like you you never hear – you never hear if guys are out for the season until like it's already happened.
00:05:32
Speaker
So you'll see these guys pop up on the report and then they'll just be questionable, doubtful for like a whole season. But then in reality, it's like, are they ever going to play again this year? Probably not. um So, all right.
Old Dominion's Challenges and Prospects
00:05:45
Speaker
ah Getting to the Saturday slate, we've got a really short slate of games here, just four Saturday games at noon on ESPNU app state is traveling to Norfolk to take on an old dominion team who is,
00:05:58
Speaker
reeling, I would say, after two straight losses at the hands of getting blown out by Marshall and now James Madison. um Old Dominion has allowed, doing some quick head math here, like 111 points over their last two games.
00:06:14
Speaker
um So they're just getting absolutely housed. like They showed up in the first half of the JMU game, and then JMU's defense is just smothering. I don't doubt that old dominion is going to come out with a vengeance and want to win this game big.
00:06:32
Speaker
However, there's something to me that, and I could be totally off on this, but there's something to me that's like one of two things is going to happen. Either the, the monarchs are going to come out and they're just going to absolutely railroad app, or they're going to come out and kind of go,
00:06:49
Speaker
We're just hope we're at the stage where we just kind of want to make a bowl game. And like that, that's the ceiling. Because again, JMU has to lose three Sunbelt games for for Old Dominion to climb back into control of the East. And that's frankly just not going to happen at this point.
00:07:07
Speaker
Yeah, ah we said this in the the recap episode of last week's games. I have not seen anything out of a Ricky Ronnie team that makes me think that this is going to be like this quick slide is going to rebound into, um you know, five straight wins to close out the don't know. I don't really, I've never seen that out of an old Dominion team since they've joined the conference as that being in the cards.
00:07:33
Speaker
With that said, um I really didn't like App last week allowing 45 to Coastal. Even with Samari Collier, i think there's a real ceiling on the Coastal offense. um i We talked...
00:07:49
Speaker
The reason or one of the several reasons um James Madison and Marshall were able to beat Old Dominion, um obviously they beat down on that defense, but it's because they were able to contain Colton Joseph.
00:08:00
Speaker
And that requires two things. Someone that can identify what James Madison and Marshall were doing on film or you know schematically, but also the personnel. And we've not seen that personnel out of app.
00:08:12
Speaker
And so I think Old Dominion... For all of their flaws and for, as you said, you know that they're so far now out of the playoff picture, um at least the Sunbelt championship picture, that I don't think this has much bearing.
00:08:27
Speaker
And now the ultimate goal is bowl game. um For all of their flaws, I think they still win this one pretty handedly. Remember when three weeks ago people were talking about Old Dominion being the G5 representative ah in the playoff and where where we are today? It's just insane to me.
00:08:47
Speaker
It's like, we don't have to relitigate this because it gets me hot every time. really does. Because i let myself get fooled. that They fooled me because all of this incessant, oh, look, look, look, you were wrong, you were wrong. No, we were right.
00:09:02
Speaker
You just did it against an FCS team and against Coastal Carolina.
00:09:07
Speaker
i I think there is some middle ground, though. i do think that we were further off, but ultimately it's like, If Old Dominion's goal was just to finish over 500, then sure, the people that were mad at us in the preseason were correct. They'll probably win seven games when it's all said and done, at least.
00:09:30
Speaker
They'll probably win seven. But that's just kind of by virtue of the conference as a whole. like It is not a good year for the East. It is a two-horse race in the East, and and basically...
00:09:41
Speaker
It depends on how you feel about Troy, but right now it's Southern Miss kind of pacing the West. It's like a three-team conference and everybody else is just kind of the riffraff. If people's goal was to basically say we're going to win seven games no matter what, that's fine.
00:09:56
Speaker
If you thought that you were, as Old Dominion, going to compete with JMU, you were sorely, sorely, sorely mistaken in the preseason. um And we said that and people were like, no, they're going to be right there with JMU to the end. And it's like you're three games out of the East at this stage.
00:10:14
Speaker
um You're basically as in it as... app is at one and two like the winner of this one can go ahead and just book their trip to mobile uh because you you guys are playing in those crappy bowl games so yeah this has been a this has been a really important i mean not important but like sad fall off i guess and app the thing that gives me pause is like their inability all of a sudden to run the football with dominion we talked about on the recap If you can't run the ball against JMU and it's just the JJ Cole show, which JJ Cole has been good, but you can't ask him to do everything.
00:10:53
Speaker
Um, other people have to step up and contribute as well. So, and they gave up four sacks to coastal last week. I think, I think this is a get right spot for old dominion. Um,
00:11:04
Speaker
But yeah, this this season has totally gone off the rails if your goal was we need to be in the Sunbelt title game at the end of the season. 330 ESPN Plus, we've got Southern Miss ready to take the belt to UL Monroe, a UL Monroe team that is offensively challenged. ah Southern Miss is an 11.5 favorite.
00:11:27
Speaker
I think I like that easy. I think Southern Miss is a better team than Troy, and Troy just gave ULM the belt ah last Saturday, 37-14. thirty seven to fourteen i think to be close to – I think they're going to score more than they did against Louisiana Southern Miss will, um but it's going to be that type of Louisiana win that they got last week where they just kind of put the the choke hold on ULM and just choke them out for like four quarters.
00:11:53
Speaker
Yeah, ah there's not a ton to like here about ULM. I think for Southern Miss, ah I said this, I really think they do need to remain perfect if they want to have that final week showdown against Troy, which will act as a by-proxy conference semifinal game.
00:12:10
Speaker
um But, I mean, frankly, with Southern Miss, you get Texas State, Arkansas State, and I think... South Alabama as your other games of the rest of the way. It's like, you just don't fall for the trap in any of these last games and you should be good.
Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe Preview
00:12:27
Speaker
Yep. Uh, so yeah, I think Southern Miss takes, takes a ULM to the woodshed there. This is at seven o'clock ESPN plus. This is an interesting style game because you get Georgia Southern traveling to Jonesboro to take on Arkansas state and Arkansas state is a one and a half point home favorite, which obviously Vegas doesn't feel too strongly because they're not even giving them the full like three point home bump.
00:12:53
Speaker
Uh, But Georgia Southern is just so bad on the road. Like, I don't know what it is. This has been an issue going back, like multiple head coaches. As soon as they go on the road, they just totally forget like how to play football.
00:13:07
Speaker
it But on the other side of things, what's telling what is telling me is. Arkansas State is either going to score 14 points in this game or they're going to score 45. And there's like no in between.
00:13:18
Speaker
So i I lean Arkansas State just because of their home and Georgia Southern does not show up on the road. But this is a true like flip a coin. ah Anything can happen.
00:13:29
Speaker
Like I truly don't know what to expect that either team. I. I hear what you're saying. i think the the kind of home road split is not something that you can ignore. But what I saw last week out of Georgia Southern was that against a Georgia State team that much like Arkansas State does not have a run game outside of the quarterback, as we learn now with Cameron Brown can kind of provide that for Georgia State.
00:13:55
Speaker
And Jalen Rayner leads his team in rushing yards this year. We saw that for all of their deficiencies in the run game. I mean, this is, this was at one point in Mace is still among the worst rush defenses in the country.
00:14:10
Speaker
ah Georgia Southern, you still have to have a talent floor at that position. You still have to have a ah certainly a certain level of offensive line and a certain level of running.
00:14:22
Speaker
Now, granted you hit those, you're going to run for three 50 as a team. yeah But Arkansas State's not at that level, and i I guess you could argue that Arkansas State has, unlike Georgia State, doesn't have that running game and has still managed to win some games and
Georgia Southern's Road Struggles
00:14:40
Speaker
look relatively competent.
00:14:43
Speaker
um Obviously, last week's real poor showing against South Alabama and then having to go to overtime against Texas State and then the loss to ULM even before that. question brings into question the real legitimacy of ah if Arkansas State has been able to win games without in a real convincing fashion without that run game.
00:15:07
Speaker
But I think they can get away with it. against or I think Georgia Stutten will not let Arkansas State get away with it. Okay, real quick. let me Let me ask you this, though. Yeah.
00:15:20
Speaker
Would you argue that a couple weeks ago... when Southern Miss beat Georgia Southern, would you argue that Southern Miss has that talent floor at the running back spot? Because it's like, they finally ran for a hundred yards in a game.
00:15:34
Speaker
Southern Miss did like our, our had a player run for a hundred yards in a game. They, they have a good quarterback the same way that Jalen Rayner for Arkansas state. But the thing that I keep coming back to is like Arkansas State does not have anywhere close to the defensive caliber right that that Southern Miss did. So I'm like, even if they have a guy run for 100 yards, like it ultimately it may not matter.
00:16:00
Speaker
But i I keep going back to the Southern Miss game and I'm like, if Southern Miss can do that in Statesboro without a guy that had run for 100 yards ah in a game all season, then Arkansas State can do it at home is is is sort of what goes through my head.
00:16:14
Speaker
I think that's a really good argument, and i i really don't know. i think that's a good point to bring up because Southern Miss, yeah, they – I think the difference there, though, is that Southern Miss is a comprehensively better team than Arkansas State really everywhere.
00:16:33
Speaker
um i can't pinpoint a position like Corey Rucker is better than any of the Southern Miss receivers, but that's about it. um Yep.
00:16:44
Speaker
I don't know. that's That's a really good point. i I don't know what to do with that. I just, I'm always opening up myself to the opportunity that JC French just throws three picks. And then the game is basically it's 28 to 13, like midway through the fourth quarter. And I'm like, I'm such an idiot for thinking that they were going to make this a game. Like I, he can truly be, yeah we talked about two face on the last episode. He can truly be Jekyll and Hyde. Like whoever shows up, you just have no clue what you're getting, whether it be home road,
00:17:19
Speaker
in a, in a smash spot against a bad defense, uh, playing against a good D you know, bad defense, good defense doesn't really matter. Like he can, he can throw, he can make defensive players that he plays against superstars overnight just cause you never know when he's just going to hit a guy in the bread basket twice. And you're like, all right, well, what, what did we expect?
00:17:40
Speaker
Um, but he did rebound from so Southern miss. So, you know, credit there. Um, uh, All right.
Troy vs. Louisiana Game Preview
00:17:47
Speaker
Last game of the night, seven o'clock, Louisiana is traveling to Troy to take on the Trojans.
00:17:53
Speaker
Troy is a nine and a half point home favorite. Troy's rolling right now. They've they found something with this Tucker kill crease, ah you know, Jared Parker mix.
00:18:04
Speaker
ah You know, it didn't look good to start, but they they had some comeback wins. ah They you know, like I said, they beat the brakes off of ULM last week. I think they do it again to this Louisiana team that just feels like they are rudderless at this stage in the season where it's like.
00:18:21
Speaker
it It felt like against Marshall that Louisiana had figured some stuff out with lunch, and then last week it felt like Southern Miss kind of exposed what their limitations are. Yeah, I think really my hope for this game is for Louisiana fans. One, this brings you one game closer to Billy Napier, as we talked about in the last episode.
00:18:42
Speaker
But I really hope that Louisiana doesn't go away from lunch, even if Troy really starts to pick on him in this game. Because... I know, i guess we saw some reps from Walker Howard um very intermittently, although he went like two for four with an interception. So, you know, it wasn't great, but we saw Walker Howard reps.
00:19:03
Speaker
um this This is the best quarterback play you've gotten all year out of anyone in lunch Winfield, even at his 50%. fifty percent um And we talked about this kind of after his first full start.
00:19:16
Speaker
What lunch is doing that Daniel Beal wasn't doing was well, for one running the ball very, very well, but actually pushing it downfield and making plays and taking risks. And that just opens the door offensively to something that to a dimension that you didn't have with Daniel Beal.
00:19:30
Speaker
Do we know if you have that with Walker Howard? Maybe, maybe, but I think the long-term future is with lunch. Winfield is you just look at like basic eligibility stuff.
00:19:41
Speaker
ah And again, lunch has been very electric, very fun to watch. And selfishly, I hope that he remains the starter. um And that's going to mean I need Louisiana to not pull him when Troy does immediately yeah one troy inevitably goes up goes up relatively big, maybe starts picking on this team. So that's all I want out of this 7 o'clock game.
00:20:08
Speaker
the The thing, too, that lunch gives you, we haven't necessarily seen it, but it it it kind of is a reverberation of what he's able to do pushing the ball down the field is it does open up those running lanes for Zylan Perry, Bill Davis. Now, like the offensive line for Louisiana has not been good this year, so that's been...
00:20:29
Speaker
That's gone from being the strength of theirs last year to this year. But Daniel Beal was not even giving you that as as a quarterback. So ah as bad as the offensive line has been, those issues were even more compounded when you can't run the football because teams know, hey, we'll just put eight guys in the box and be and play single high safety and go, okay, we're playing cover one. Is Daniel Beal going to throw it over our head?
00:20:56
Speaker
Probably not. Well, you have to make those kinds of considerations with lunch. It's like, you may have to run cover two, you may have to run cover three, something like that, because it's like, and then that opens up those gaps running the football. Although,
00:21:10
Speaker
Louisiana just as a team hasn't been able to take advantage of those, but it still makes more sense schematically. Like the thing that Wooldridge did last year, push them all down the field vertically. Like he was a better quarterback than lunch, obviously. But the reason the running game complimented it so well is because it's like if we run play action, we're the other The defense is is going, oh, man, like this ball could go anywhere.
00:21:35
Speaker
And you just don't have that element with with a Daniel Beal really even a Walker Howard in the limited mounts. We've seen him. So, yeah, just keep I think you just got to keep plugging away with lunch. It's not like you guys are going anywhere.
Season Highlights and Predictions
00:21:47
Speaker
You're you're you know one loss away or two losses away from being out of bowl contention anyway. So it's like might as well make it an entertaining lunch. Yeah.
00:21:56
Speaker
All right. Like I said, that is a small five game slate, but there are some interesting matchups. We'll see if Old Dominion can rebound. We'll see what happens with this ah Georgia Southern Arkansas State conundrum slugfest.
Conclusion and Contact Information
00:22:11
Speaker
I don't know what kind of, ah you know, adjective or whatever you want to throw on it. But Zeke, as we wrap up here, let everybody know where they can find you.
00:22:20
Speaker
Yeah, man, you can find me on Twitter at Zeke Palermo, Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O. ah Start of the year, early parts of the year, we thought that there was maybe going to be some type of two-horse race down the stretch in the east between Old Dominion and James Madison. um say what you want. I thought Georgia Southern could have maybe been in that argument as well, uh, in the preseason, but it turns out it's going to be in the West between, uh, Southern Miss and Troy.
00:22:46
Speaker
So, uh, you know, this, this is a really fun thing to be following and, uh, we appreciate you all listening, uh, as we keep track of it and, you know, watch these final weeks play out, see who comes out and then, uh, get hopefully, you know, watch whoever comes out of the West, get rolled by James Madison in the championship I don't know that we would have ever in the preseason, Pencilton Troy Southern miss late in the season as a must watch, but that's really the way that it's like unfolded this season where it's gone from like these two teams, like Southern miss might be okay.
00:23:19
Speaker
They have a ah floor with this quarterback head coach combo. Troy. i mean, even with goose Crowder early, it didn't look good. Like the, the Nichols game especially comes to mind.
00:23:31
Speaker
um, But yeah, it's gotten to be like a really fun race, and it's like with what JMU did to Old Dominion and Old Dominion did to themselves against Marshall, that's basically over.
00:23:43
Speaker
um you know All JMU has to is hold serve, and they're in the title game. Boom. ah But yeah, it's become a really interesting race, and we'll see stylistically how those two match up.
00:23:54
Speaker
As always, you can email ah the show warmweatherfans at gmail.com. You can follow us on... Twitter, YouTube, TikTok, at WarmWeatherFans. ah You can follow me personally on X at WatchTheStone. We will be back to run down all of these Week 9 games and talk about the upcoming Week 10.
00:24:12
Speaker
This has been WarmWeatherFans.