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2025 Sun Belt Football: Week 10 Recap
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It wasn't a banner week for the Sun Belt with several blowouts, but that doesn't mean there aren't things to discuss.
Brian and Zeke break down Arkansas State's upset 23-10 win over Troy, Coastal Carolina gave Marshall a taste of its own medicine, and Lunch Winfield is nearly perfect passing in a defeat of South Alabama.
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Transcript
Introduction and Overview of Week 10 in Sunbelt
00:00:16
Speaker
Welcome in, everybody, to another edition of Warm Weather Fans. My name is b Brian Stone, your host, joined again by Zeke Palermo. And, Zeke, we're here to talk about all of the Week 10 games in the Sunbelt.
00:00:28
Speaker
A non-competitive week, I want to say, for a lot of these games. Like...
Marshall vs. Coastal Game Analysis
00:00:35
Speaker
you know the The first half of Marshall Coastal was really fun, and then Marshall just got the oopsies and couldn't hold on to the ball, and then it got really kind just spiraled out of control. i said this you know We were talking about this before we went on to record.
00:00:51
Speaker
The closest game of the weekend was Louisiana-South Alabama, which, if South Alabama doesn't score a touchdown in the fourth quarter, is a 31-14 final. Even that was ah should have been a three-score game, but ah Before we get into all that, are you doing?
00:01:08
Speaker
I'm good, man. it just It was a rough week for us, conference-wide. 19 turnovers across the five games. You're looking at a turnover almost every 15 minutes, just a share over.
00:01:23
Speaker
So pretty much one turnover per quarter of game ah in the conference this week. So...
The Strategy of Midweek Games
00:01:30
Speaker
Just really great stuff from us, especially when you've got a game on Tuesday and a game on Thursday where you're supposed to... Is the like strategic point of those games not to draw some attention to the conference, draw some eyes?
00:01:44
Speaker
And I guess if you look like two or three years ago when you struck this deal with ESPN where you know it's this whole big... Football 365 deal.
00:01:55
Speaker
um James Madison, Texas State could have maybe been an interesting game. I don't know when this was scheduled for the Tuesday, but at some point that might have been an interesting one. Same thing, Marshall Coastal, like two or three years ago,
00:02:06
Speaker
Could have been a really, really interesting game. um And as you said, the Coastal March record game was interesting to watch and exciting, but not good football.
00:02:17
Speaker
It was not exciting to watch because of good football. So I'm really, really disappointed um just by the – I was hoping to get a week off, man, and I'm
Sunbelt's Turnover Troubles
00:02:27
Speaker
sure you were too. With our teams off, state and southern, it's like, all right, sweet.
00:02:30
Speaker
I can enjoy the games. Nope. It was it was me maybe the worst week of action I can remember in a long time. like It's all conference games. It's not as if you know early in the season, you're really rolling the dice on some of these teams because you're like, I don't know what I'm going get from a Liberty JMU game or you know whatever.
00:02:50
Speaker
I don't know what I'm going get from Virginia Tech Old Dominion. when you i mean A lot of these games, I think we called straight off the bat. There was one upset that I at least was wrong about it. I'll get into that at the end because that was the last game of the night. But it was like Old Dominion, UL Monroe was like, I could have closed my eyes and picked the final score of that game. like a you know You could have written that on the card and handed it to the referee and been like, all right, is UL Monroe going to fail to score?
00:03:20
Speaker
Yeah. Are we going to get out of here with a win for Old Dominion? Yeah. Okay, cool. ah You talked about it. All right, so that's actually a good transition.
James Madison's Playoff Potential
00:03:29
Speaker
So Tuesday night, last Tuesday, we had JMU Texas State.
00:03:34
Speaker
And I know what you said about wanting to kind of showcase the talent, I guess, like around the Sun Belt. I think this was a good... ah showcase for the ah college football playoff voters who get to pick the G5 representative.
00:03:52
Speaker
yeah Because let's let's look at James Madison's resume now. 7-1, 5-0 in the Sun Belt as of today. ah Only losses to a ranked Louisville team by, i think it was 14, on the road.
00:04:07
Speaker
What's... is what What's the argument for another G5 team as of today to represent in the playoff?
00:04:18
Speaker
Like, i I think they're the easy layup because there's no like Boise State from last year where it's like they're running a bad conference, but they're just far and away so much the better team. They've got a Heisman contender like we don't really have that anywhere else.
00:04:36
Speaker
And it feels like JMU is like the cream of the crop almost. I'll tell you where I think it's going to um Right now, it looks like it's going to be Memphis, who's ranked and really notably for them over James Madison have a SEC win. They beat Arkansas thirty two thirty one earlier in the year.
00:04:55
Speaker
Again, it's Arkansas, but we there's a demonstrated but ah trend that that matters. I know. um so I get it. I agree. I'm with you. I think James Madison has a good a shot, deserves a good a shot as any.
00:05:11
Speaker
I think if they finish out, I mean, they're probably going to end the year 11-1, right? Coastal is kind of feisty, but like what they're not really going to do anything. So um I think they've got a good shot, but ah I think today they're on the outside looking in.
Group of 5 Playoff Debate
00:05:30
Speaker
And that's really a bummer that like, I'm not necessarily saying we need to separate the group of six, group of five or whatever from the rest of the the ah country. The way that some people are like, give them their own playoff. Let them play at the little kiddies table. It's like, no, we...
00:05:47
Speaker
we at least want one team to represent in the and the regular foot playoff. Cause, because you never know when you're going to get a Boise state beats Oklahoma in the fiesta bowl moment. And you're like, Oh wow. You know, like never saw, never would have seen this matchup happen. If, if we're playing in our own little playoff, I,
00:06:06
Speaker
I understand what you're saying about Memphis. I'm sorry, man. That loss to UAB a couple weeks ago, a UAB team that fired Trent Dilfer before that week, that's a bad loss. UAB is not a good team.
00:06:21
Speaker
like I know... I know that they have the inherent, like, carry the bias of the Arkansas one-point win, who, by the way, Arkansas is not a good team. They've already fired Pittman.
00:06:33
Speaker
um But UAB, dude, UAB has had so many rough seasons under this Dilfer regime, and I know he's gone now, but it's like, still, he started the season as the coach.
00:06:46
Speaker
If I'm... You know, I i make jokes all all the time about the voters. Like, they're a bunch of crotchety old guys that are just sitting around watching games for, like, the first time in, like, week 11 and being like, who's good?
00:06:59
Speaker
Let me figure out who's good. I'm sorry, dude.
00:07:04
Speaker
Louisville beating JMU by two touchdowns on the road. is way way more of an impressive resume to me than losing to UAB on the road by seven points in a game where, ah again, Dilfer's already been fired.
00:07:22
Speaker
So it's like it's like you didn't accomplish really anything. like You've beaten South Florida, I guess is your best win because they're the only ranked team on the schedule that they've beaten.
00:07:34
Speaker
But they're like a fine team for what they are. But they they were getting a lot of benefit of the doubt from beating Boise earlier in the year. And it's like they carry that preseason ranking bias with them so much. And I hate it because it shouldn't affect the way that you feel like later in the season. There was a tweet that I saw that kind of went viral because people were mocking it.
00:07:58
Speaker
Where ah what was who is South Carolina playing this weekend? Was it Alabama Alabama? Yeah, I think it was. I think it was. I think it was Alabama and Alabama beat them.
00:08:11
Speaker
And someone was like, the highlight was tweeted out by an SEC heavy account and was like, Alabama knocks off preseason number 13, South Carolina. And people are like, we're still talking about the preseason rankings and we in week 10.
00:08:25
Speaker
Who cares? So, I mean, i'm I'm just like, all right. Anyway, sorry. that was That was just like a rant. Like, I'm tired of of that carrying so much weight with, like, voters. I hate it.
00:08:36
Speaker
um Personally, I don't think we should have preseason rankings at all. I think everybody should be on even playing field until, like, you actually take the field. Because otherwise it would be... Like, yeah, Texas is still the best team in the world, didn't you know?
00:08:49
Speaker
Like, because were number one or whatever. um All right. James Madison beats Texas State 52 to 20. This game was only really competitive in the second quarter ah when Texas State put up 20 points.
James Madison vs. Texas State Game Breakdown
00:09:04
Speaker
ah You had a touchdown pass from Brad Jackson in the second quarter, two field goals by Tyler roe Robles, ah and then a Brad Jackson run, which cut it to 28-20.
00:09:17
Speaker
ah after the game opened 14-zip JMU. And then JMU just did does what they do, which is they just kind of smother you in the second half. And you know Brad Jackson threw three picks in this one.
00:09:31
Speaker
ah was also you know we we talk about how they are akin to an Arkansas state, maybe an old dominion with, with worse weapons, but Brad Jackson was the leading rusher in this game for Texas state with 43 yards on 16 carries and a touchdown.
00:09:49
Speaker
Um, Yeah, I mean, JMU's a wagon. you know Barnett completed 12 of 18 for four touchdowns and 264 yards. I mean, this one was easy.
00:10:03
Speaker
I mean, it it was competitive for like a quarter, and then it and then it went back to being just a total blowout. Yeah, I mean, this is really no notes, right? I mean, JMU is creme de la creme in Texas State.
00:10:17
Speaker
can win games, but doesn't, I mean, they, they just don't have the firepower on either side of the ball that James Madison do. um Brad Jackson down to earth. Finally, after a really couple really good weeks.
00:10:29
Speaker
um Well, I finally played a, he finally played a legit defense. I mean, yeah no, but seriously, like look at the teams he was playing. It was Arkansas state. It was Troy. It was, ah you know, who at Marshall, like those types teams where you're like, you're like, Oh,
00:10:48
Speaker
they're good, but they don't have a good defense. And there's not really any way for me to positively spin that outside of maybe looking at like a one game sample and going from there. Like we know those teams don't have good defenses and he doesn't have a good defense on his side. So it's like, yeah, he, he finally played a team that is far and away head and shoulders, the best defense in the Sunbelt and the predictable happened where they just, they got rocked.
00:11:14
Speaker
I mean, there's no other way to really put it. Uh, Barnett continues to show that his ACL is like all of the way healed. He had 98 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. He was the leading rusher for James Madison.
00:11:27
Speaker
Um, Yeah, I mean, it it was just two sacks, ah or sorry, Tadeo, I think his name is pronounced, the defensive lineman for JMU with two sacks in this game of Jackson.
00:11:41
Speaker
um Yeah, it was just, they just totally ran through the Bobcats, and the Bobcats are now three and five, oh, and four in Sunbelt play.
00:11:52
Speaker
I went back through our and this is a good kind of segue. We're going to do at the end of the season, like a preseason. We're going to circle back into our preseason predictions and talk about what we got wrong, what we got right and where we were kind of in the middle.
00:12:07
Speaker
Texas state, I don't think we could have been any more dead on by being like totally skeptical of whatever this team was supposed to look like. I actually went through the other day and was trolling in the YouTube comments of our preview for months ago.
00:12:24
Speaker
where people were like, you guys are just haters that we're going on to the big bad pack 12. We're going to be way better than you think. And I just wrote the numbers out. I was like, you guys are allowing 418 yards per game. You're 117th in the country. ah You're, ah you're allowing 33.1 points per game or whatever the number was before this one.
00:12:44
Speaker
I'm like, where does the confidence come from like how did you watch this team play last season and go we're going to be worse on offense by a lot it'll all work out it'll all be fine i that was what i didn't understand yeah man go beat up on like i don't know san diego state next year and and it's pretty good actually be bad san jose state or whatever You know, when Gonzaga inevitably fields a football team, like, rock on, man.
00:13:16
Speaker
Yeah. You guys are going to crush John Stockton's alma mater. ah But, yeah, other otherwise, it's... a Yeah, it's it's been a really, really
Texas State's Disappointing Season
00:13:26
Speaker
bad season for Texas State.
00:13:28
Speaker
I mean, it's been
00:13:31
Speaker
to put it in perspective, I bet the under before the season and they had to get to eight regular season wins. It cashed on Friday. It cashed, it cashed before November 1st.
00:13:45
Speaker
Think about that. Yeah. So yeah, good luck to in the pack 12. Uh, I'm sure things will get a lot easier for you guys. Uh, once you're playing bigger and better competition.
00:13:59
Speaker
yeah, you know You can't stick with us us little guys, but it'll all work out in the end. ah All right. Let's transition to Thursday. So we had, again, this was an entertaining... It was a very weird game, though.
00:14:15
Speaker
Like, and okay, I know that the name of the game is that Carlos Del Rio Wilson had four turnovers by himself. ah I think he threw... and i need to confirm this. He threw two interceptions.
00:14:28
Speaker
He lost two fumbles. Ari Collier, despite winning the game by 17 points, was by far the lowest-graded passer in the conference this week.
00:14:41
Speaker
I he went weeks or 20 through the air, yeah. Right. That's what I mean. And, and, you know, it's also insane to me that he led the, led the game with, I think he had like, I'm trying to get to the box square. I think he had like 22 carries in this game or something. And they were like all really like, yeah, 22 carries for 75 yards.
00:15:03
Speaker
His longest rush was 12, 12 yards. ah He he's okay as a passer. um But yeah, when your defense is forcing four turnovers, I mean, it's a lot, or five turnovers, I guess, as all as a team, it's a lot easier to win these games when you are like, why is our quarterback only completing 40% of his passes? Ah, it's all right. Defense will get us.
00:15:27
Speaker
Okay. Yeah. I mean, these were bad, bad turnovers too. A really bad under throw. Yeah. that wasn't really to a receiver, an overthrow that was tipped and then got the jump ball.
00:15:43
Speaker
This was rule of fumble. um He throws on a screen to his right, throws it behind the running back, and Coach still picks that up. And then he was stripped in kind of like a scrum.
00:15:56
Speaker
Maybe he thought they were going to blow it dead, but, I mean, he's still standing upright with 12 guys around him getting stripped. It
Marshall's Offensive Struggles
00:16:03
Speaker
was really, really bad. really, really bad. And the game in the game even opened with Samari Collier throwing one of the worst pick sixes I've seen in a long time, where it was like, yeah ah clearly the read was to his left, and he snapped it, and he just turns his shoulders and stares the receiver down until, I can't remember what he was running, like a curl or something, until he went to his break,
00:16:30
Speaker
I don't think Collier ever turned his head. Like it was telegraphed all the way. And then Boogie Trotter jumped it. And, you know, they put that stat up on the screen at one point. It was like, uh, uh, Marshall has like seven, had like 78 points this season off of turnovers. And it's like,
00:16:50
Speaker
with With this caliber of team, it makes sense why they're able to win, but their defense is so feast and famine where it's like you see where you get now when you're not forcing those turnovers and getting pick sixes and all that stuff. You're getting you're allowing 44 points to a team that has a quarterback that can't complete half of this pass's.
00:17:10
Speaker
I don't know if I want to put – this is not to absolve Marshall's defense of their flaws, but I don't want to put too much on them because four times in the same quarter, their team is turning the ball over and giving 30 yards, have fun.
00:17:28
Speaker
ah there's yeah Best case scenario is a field goal here. Yeah. um I don't know. i think the five and three from Coastal is very, very deceiving.
00:17:39
Speaker
they're prop I guess now they're slated to finish second in the East behind James Madison. Maybe there's some jostling ah late, but... That's kind of looks how it's going to wrap up now is a very deceiving five and three coastal team.
00:17:55
Speaker
They found someone in Samari Collier ah who is better than Tad Hudson for sure, better than MJ Morris, um but is still completing 40% of passes.
00:18:07
Speaker
um If the guy didn't have the legs, he does and the ability to carry the ball 22 times. The only guy on the team, by the way, with double digit carries. Yeah.
00:18:18
Speaker
ah they That was the craziest part to me. It was like Dominic nicely led them in rushing with 76 yards, but he had five carries. And I'm like, what is the thought process there of being like, hey, we're up like double digits. Let's just keep pounding our quarterback who if he gets hurt, I mean, our season is in shatter in tatters. We can't put Tad Hudson back there.
00:18:43
Speaker
like Yeah, I mean, they're a game away from bowl eligibility right now. If Samari Collier goes down, I don't think they make it that far. No, because they only need to run away.
00:18:54
Speaker
yeah um Dominic Nicely was a name he brought up, someone I don't think we've talked about yet, a true freshman. This was his fourth game this year, averaging at least nine yards per carry, second in a row.
00:19:06
Speaker
over 10 yards a carry. He did 10 last week in 15 here against Marshall. Get this kid some touches. He's already passed the ah the red shirt number, so it's like, but what what do you have to lose there? um I'd like to see them involve him and more moving forward because Javince Simmskin just hasn't been good.
00:19:24
Speaker
um that That running back room is much like the rest of the roster offensively is pretty skin and bones. So I'd like to see them look to him more. Like I said, i I truly just don't understand it. like I understand that you're distributing the carries, but it's like 14, 18, 22.
00:19:43
Speaker
Okay, the rest of the this ah Coastal roster, Dominic Nicely, Javon Simpkins, Javon Edwards, Jalen John, combined had as many carries as Collier did.
00:19:56
Speaker
Do you have the CFS pulled up? Is that scrambled or designed? Yeah. ah I do not have them ah set up for like scramble and design. Like I have the grades pulled up from this week.
00:20:10
Speaker
ah me yeah more But here's the thing. i I put minimum five rushes as the, the the baseline and dump nicely.
00:20:21
Speaker
And Simpkins are on here. i didn't include non non quarterback. So that's, that's out, I guess, but yeah, Yeah, I mean, it's like I truly don't understand pounding the rock with your quarterback when you know if said quarterback ever goes down. Like, again, the season is basically you can go ahead and pack the pack the equipment up for the year. Like, you're probably not winning another game.
00:20:48
Speaker
ah This is interesting, too. You talked about it, about them finishing second. they probably be They probably will beat Georgia State on November eighth They'll probably win at Georgia Southern the week after that.
00:21:03
Speaker
They play at South Carolina, which is probably a loss, I would say. i mean, like i don't I don't feel very confident in South Carolina this year. They've been really bad, even with a guy that draft pundits-like in cellars.
00:21:16
Speaker
And then they play James Madison in the finale. So James Madison's really going to put a beating on them in the final finale. I think... But I'm sorry, if you're if you're running your quarterback 22 times in a game where you won by three scores, like he's not going to make it the rest of the season. like You shouldn't be giving him Jerome Bettis between the tackle touches. those Those are all
Coastal's Quarterback Reliance
00:21:40
Speaker
design runs. He has two scrambles in that game per PFF.
00:21:44
Speaker
So you know there's a small margin of error, ah but it's at most like, what, plus minus one. Yeah. And that's been the case for him all year. That's really interesting.
00:21:56
Speaker
And ah yeah, Tim Beck, your job kind of rides on whether or not this guy gets hurt. So happy trails. but we We did this with Troy last week. Let me take you through the wins in the conference for Coastal this year. You tell me which is the best of these teams. 18 point win over South Alabama.
00:22:17
Speaker
ah Well, you had a 40-point loss to Old Dominion. That was pre-Collier. yeah You beat UL Monroe by 15. You beat App by 8. And you beat Marshall by 17.
00:22:29
Speaker
Is Marshall the best team of that group? Yeah, I'm definitely most impressed by Marshall of those four. We know South Alabama is in contention for Worst in the Conference.
00:22:42
Speaker
ULM, we know if they get behind, just don't know how to play football um so on either side, offense or defensively. And App is like a middle-of-the-road team this year, that definitely better than I was anticipating, but still... Extremely inconsistent, and there's no there's no rhyme or reason to... like early in the season, it was like Rashad Dubinian was like carrying the team. And I don't know if he's been like injured or whatnot, but he has not been good. Like the last couple of games and he's been playing. So that's why I don't know if he's injured or not. It's not like he's just been totally erased from the stat sheet.
00:23:24
Speaker
The last couple weeks have been like 10 carries 38 yards. And you're like, what happened to this guy? Like, I don't, I don't know. um All right. I think we've said enough about this game. Marshall,
00:23:37
Speaker
another extremely inconsistent team. It's like they ran into the exact problem that a lot of teams that play them run into, which is if you turn the ball over, they're going to make you pay.
00:23:49
Speaker
yep But they were the ones on the other side of it on Thursday, and they were like, oh no, like what do what do we do now? like We're not getting stops with this defense because, again, it it's either a pick six or it's going the other way for a touchdown. It's truly like there are no like easy defensive possessions, it feels like, for Marshall.
00:24:08
Speaker
Yeah. But yeah, ah Coastal, good win for them. They keep rolling. ah All right, Saturday. This one was the most obvious result of all time. ah Old Dominion beats Ewell Monroe It was 24-0 ah it was twenty four zero at half I saw that they didn't actually put Quinn Hennigle in until I think like four minutes left to go in the game. And I was like, why was Colton Joseph to still playing? You know, you know. We talked about this last week.
00:24:41
Speaker
UL Monroe's not going to score 24 points. Take him out. and So I was just like, I was kind of shocked that he was still getting reps with like eight minutes left to go in the game. And I was like, what are we what are we doing here, Old Dominion?
00:24:53
Speaker
Yeah, um I think...
00:24:57
Speaker
Yeah, there's there's not a ton on this game. I think this just further, further exacerbates the problems that we get. How do you throw a game that you were literally were shut out for until the fourth quarter, a garbage time touchdown with five minutes left in the game.
00:25:13
Speaker
um You throw the ball only 21 times. And this is you, Elman, Roe. It's because you've got Aiden Armenta and then at best Landon Graves behind it. And this, guess,
00:25:28
Speaker
Nothing can progress next season until they identify a guy. Because, like, Zach Palmer-Smith ran the ball 18 times for 96, averaged over five yards a carry.
00:25:39
Speaker
um I think this is his third game in a row, maybe, with over five per carry. He's been doing really well. There's some pieces on the defense. ULM three sacks in this game.
00:25:52
Speaker
ah Six tackles for loss. I believe he pickled the minion off. But when you get behind, shucks, man. The game's over. though Minta can't do it.
00:26:04
Speaker
And so i hope they have identified a guy already, be it in the recruiting class or in the portal, that they really like because this could be a really, really quick um coaching tenure here if they don't identify anyone.
00:26:24
Speaker
I mean, i I said it weeks ago, and I still maintain, like, I don't know what Bryant Vincent saw out of Aiden Armenta last season that was like, I want to bring this guy back as basically the incumbent starter next year.
00:26:39
Speaker
i know he was i know he was young. I never saw, like, flashes from him where I was like, oh, there's something here. we you can You can work with this.
00:26:50
Speaker
He just doesn't... He doesn't bring he's not exceptional in any area is the problem. There's nothing about him. He doesn't have great arm talent. His ball placement's not super great. He's not a great athlete.
00:27:03
Speaker
So he can't he's not like a, you know, Samari Collier where it's like, if I can't complete a pass today, you're at least going to get some rushing production out of me. You don't get that. ah You know, Saturday he had 13 carries.
00:27:16
Speaker
I know they didn't factor in the sack yardage, but 13 carries for negative two yards. His longest run was nine yards. So you're not even really getting like rushing production out of him. Like what, what is it that Bryant Vincent was like?
00:27:30
Speaker
ah And maybe they just can't get anybody to come to ULM with the instability in the athletic department. Like Bryant Vincent's also the AD now, which, He's not getting fired until they hire a new AD because what is he going to do Fire himself.
00:27:45
Speaker
But it's just like, i mean, I'm serious. You were like, it might be a short coaching tenure. It's like, who's going to fire if he's an AD too? government Well, that governor's running wild.
00:27:56
Speaker
ah ah He only seems to care about what's going on at LSU. But yeah, who knows? You could just get like a letter from the governor's office one And it's like, you've been, you've been canned deal with it, buddy. Yeah.
00:28:08
Speaker
i Yeah, I mean, Colton Joseph was good in this one. 12 of 22, 231 added 72 yards three touchdowns. added seventy two yards on the ground and ran for three touchdowns It's just like ULM is seriously missing a piece where it's like, if you gave them even a functional baseline level quarterback, they would I think they would have like five wins right now.
ULM's Quarterback Challenges
00:28:35
Speaker
like The fact that, again, like you said, and like we've said all along, the second you get down 10 points, the game's essentially over. You can go ahead and, you know, fire the final gun at the end and be like, all right, let's get out of here.
00:28:49
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, you're working with a guy who, this is more of a baseball thing, but looking at war, it's like, this guy's going to be a negative war below replacement level. You can find someone.
00:29:01
Speaker
I mean, but maybe not. I mean, because if now Southern Miss had these struggles, Postal even might still be struggling with because Samari Collier good, but not great. Like he's a good athlete, but really can't complete passes at a high enough clip.
00:29:16
Speaker
Are there maybe just not 130, however, good enough quarterbacks to start in the FBS? Well, I think it's a combination of things, and I don't have access to like their NIL stuff, but I think it's a combination of things.
00:29:29
Speaker
Number one, I think Vincent is a better coach than those guys you listed, like a Will Hall or a Tim Beck or whatnot. I think NIL is a big issue for them.
00:29:40
Speaker
like When they go talk to a guy in the portal they're probably or a recruit, they're probably like, what do you got NIL-wise? And they're like, nothing. You know, I, I, we've talked about with Matt back when he was on here, like how underfunded the entire athletic department is. I can't imagine their and NIL situation is amazing.
00:29:59
Speaker
Um, I think it's going to be hard because unlike a lot of other teams, you know you've seen an Old Dominion hold on to Colton Joseph. You've seen Jalen Rayner stay at Arkansas State.
00:30:12
Speaker
I think unlike a lot of those teams, even if you get a guy in, he's going to be there one season or hell, he might do the thing where he plays four games and then goes, I'm sitting the rest of the year and transferring at the end. um Because they don't have...
00:30:27
Speaker
They don't have the support system around him with the receivers. They can run the ball, but the lack of even throwing the ball down 31 points tells me that you know Vincent might be might jam a square peg into a round hole a little bit and go, okay, no, we're just going to keep establishing the run even though we're way down. and it's like Even if you got Cam Ward back there, if you're running the ball down 31 points, it's like what's he spoke he's got an audible at the line every time.
00:30:56
Speaker
like I guess do the bright side is that you're not trying to force it, right? it At the very worst, we know that Brian Vincent knows what he doesn't have.
00:31:08
Speaker
Or maybe he's just a poor play caller. And or you know whoever is calling the plays there doesn't know that you need to pass when you're down 14 points in the first quarter. No, i i yeah I think he's just like, we can't do it.
00:31:22
Speaker
Like, I don't understand that I can't do it, so why even try? Like, I'm not saying you need to line up and run five wide sets, but you need to, like,
00:31:34
Speaker
even it up early in the game. like Just give the other team a counter or something to like have to account for. like Don't just, we're a run, and then we're going to run, and then we're going run, and then we're going to run, and then I look at the scoreboard, and we're up to down 21 because we've had three three and outs, and the other team has just gone down and scored on us, and now we're screwed, and we're just going keep running the ball. um Yeah, I mean, they've they've got to find something in the in the portal. Find a guy that...
00:32:01
Speaker
I mean, I hate to say this, but like this might be what it takes to get somebody to ULM. Find some guy that's been kicked out of another school for something. Rashad, you didn't? Well, yeah, yeah, but I mean like a quarterback that's been kicked out of school or something for non-violent reasons, let's say, and just like violation of team rules guys or whatever that like just couldn't cut it elsewhere, and just bring them in and be like, listen, man, if you play here, you can do whatever you want, and you will start the whole season. We we guarantee that because we've nothing behind you. like We might put a jugs machine out there.
00:32:37
Speaker
Hey, if you want this to be your Blue Mountain State, come on down. Absolutely. We might throw a jugs machine behind center. It might just be an improvement over what we had.
00:32:47
Speaker
um All right. So Old Dominion wins that game big. That was, again, the easiest pick of all time. ah Next game here, Louisiana.
South Alabama's Defensive Struggles
00:32:57
Speaker
um Defeat South Alabama in a game that wasn't even as close as the nine point margin indicated. I think we talked about this already. they South Alabama scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter when they're down 31 to 14.
00:33:10
Speaker
ah That makes it look a little closer than it was. I know we've talked about lunch. Winfield's accuracy being in and out. He was dead on in this one. 14 of 15, 232, two picks was the high or two touchdowns. Rather was the highest graded passing quarterback in the sunbelt this week, had a grade out of a hundred of 94.4 throw in the football.
00:33:33
Speaker
I mean, he was, he was locked in his yards per attempt was 14 and a half yards. His a dot was 15. So he wasn't just throwing it.
00:33:46
Speaker
He was throwing it down the field and they were all getting completed. This just kind of outlines like South Alabama is as bad as everybody remembers. I, I gave them, I think a little bit too much grace about the win over Georgia state.
00:34:00
Speaker
They are truly as bad as, as we thought. yeah, before the Georgia State win because defensively they've got nothing. like they can't They can't compete with every team that's not named Georgia State on defense.
00:34:14
Speaker
Yeah. um Is this team, if you were to airdrop Fluff Bothwell from Mississippi State back onto this team, how i don't much does that resolve?
00:34:26
Speaker
I don't think it makes that much of a difference.
00:34:30
Speaker
I think they can run they can run the ball they can run the ball pretty effectively. That is not their issue. Now, if you asked me if you airdrop Mike Green from Marshall last year onto this team, yeah, that would be be a discussion we need to have. Because if there's a guy with 18 sacks rushing the passer, sure and we can we can talk.
00:34:48
Speaker
But no, any of the offensive pieces, like even if you took... Carter Bradley from years back and put him in quarterback. Joe Lopez put him back at quarterback. It's like he's going to have to out-duel somebody every week. like they They don't play defense.
00:35:04
Speaker
They're a little bit like um ah ULM in that regard where it's like their quarterback play is marginally better it's not totally 12 out of 12 or 14 out of 14 bottom of the barrel in the Sunbelt, but they can't, they can't defend as, as even shown in the Georgia state when, when they allowed 31 points to Georgia state.
00:35:27
Speaker
And then in this one, you know, again, Winfield's chucking the ball down the field and they're all getting completed. yeah,
00:35:35
Speaker
I don't know. Dude, i I've always had doubts about Applewhite as a head coach. I think he's a better coordinator than a head coach. And this is the second time he's been in this position.
00:35:46
Speaker
He did it at Houston as well after Tom Herman bounced. And he's just not – he can't run a full team. He's a good OC, not a great OC, but a good one. And he he just doesn't know what to do on the defensive side of the ball.
00:36:04
Speaker
ah South Alabama second fewest stacks in the conference this year. Third worst rush defense. Second best pass defense by yardage, but that's ah consequence of being out of game.
00:36:20
Speaker
that That's actually not good that you're in that position. um and that's ah That's an effect of being the one of the worst rushing defenses. is like They're like, why would we throw?
00:36:31
Speaker
we would just run the ball every time. Yeah, they have the second best rush or passing defense in the conference despite or because of they've seen the fourth fewest pass attempt in the conference this year.
00:36:51
Speaker
It's insane that that teams get... I mean, here's the thing. Like I said, the the quarterback plays marginally better, but they they're kind of dealing with the same thing that ULM is where it's like teams are jumping on them and then just being like, all right, let's just run the lock out.
00:37:09
Speaker
Because, I mean, outside of playing the other one of the other worst defenses, they're not going to score points. Yeah. So, i I think my question is, does Applewhite get the boot at the end of this season?
00:37:24
Speaker
Like, this is year two as a head coach. He was pretty good in year one with Gio Lopez. Not great, but pretty good. You know, middle of the pack. And then this year has just been a disaster, basically, from Jump Street.
00:37:37
Speaker
So... You lose Lopez, obviously. Davenport has not developed or even regressed from the end of last year from what the the bits that we saw.
00:37:49
Speaker
i think I think if you're an offensive guy and you can't develop a quarterback, I think that's... That's that's time for walking papers at that point, because like if that's supposed to be your bread and butter, Applewhite also played quarterback at Texas. So it's not like, yeah oh, I was a receiver, so I don't know how to develop quarterbacks. He was a quarterback. He backed up, I think, Chris Sims or somebody at Texas.
00:38:11
Speaker
So can they can they tank a multimillion dollar buyout?
00:38:19
Speaker
can they Can they find something that he's done off the books and use it for cause? He did it last time. ah yeah Well, start checking his university-issued cell phone and see what happens.
00:38:33
Speaker
Yeah, if I'm the president, I'm calling all the sororities on campus, and I'm saying, hey, do whatever Lane Kiffin is doing over there at Ole Miss. Invite him to your parties.
00:38:44
Speaker
um Make him the guest of honor because we want this guy gone. $1.8 million. per one reddit post so consider the veracity of that but brutal um i i think you have to pay it like either that or you risk doing this for the next like three years like that or however many years he has remaining i assume it was a five-year deal it's three years left yeah i If you want anybody to care about South Alabama football in the future, you got to can this and like hire an FCS coach and just pay him peanuts compared to what you're paying Matt White.
00:39:26
Speaker
Yeah. Good la win for Louisiana. Again, jumped on him 24-7 in the first half and then just basically didn't have to do anything the rest of the game. um All right. Getting to the last game of the night, the most surprising result easily for me.
Arkansas State's Upset Victory
00:39:42
Speaker
Arkansas State beats Troy twenty three to ten Arkansas State scores 17 first quarter points, and then, much like Louisiana, just kind of, meh, let's just salt the clock out.
00:39:54
Speaker
ah Tucker Kilcrease, once again, for the second week in a row, I thought he had kind of gotten onto a roll heading into last week's game, and he didn't play well last week, but they won anyway.
00:40:06
Speaker
This week he was bad, and they lost, and so now I'm like, Are you just a guy that can show up occasionally, but there's no, you can't be relied upon, i think is where we're at with him.
00:40:19
Speaker
ah 19 of 34, completed 55% of his passes. His yards per attempt, he was also checked down Charlie in this one because he threw a pick, but his yards per attempt were 4.9 yards and his ADOT was 5.7.
00:40:34
Speaker
Uh, so not only are you not an efficient passer, you're not pushing the ball down the field either in a game where you were down 17 points after the first quarter.
00:40:48
Speaker
I don't know how you reconcile that. I think what you're, uh, a big, big part of this Tucker Kilcrease conversation that we're, that you didn't mention is nine sacks.
00:41:00
Speaker
Not, yeah, sorry. Yeah. Yeah. nine nine Nine sacks to an Arkansas State defense that has been laughable in previous weeks.
00:41:15
Speaker
um that I don't know, again, if that is on the the quarterback. A lot of times when you have that many sacks, it is on the quarterback. But that's a combination quarterback-offensive line issue. You cannot surrender nine sacks to Arkansas State.
00:41:32
Speaker
You just can't. like there's There's just no way around that. Prior to this week, um roy now Troy has conceded the most stacks this year at 34. Next worst is Arkansas State at 22.
00:41:53
Speaker
So even if you chop off these nine, it's just a ah poor, poor pass-blocking situation there. Holy. um And I'm trying to find the numbers here.
00:42:05
Speaker
This is an Arkansas State defense that was also bottom of the conference before this week in sacks. They jump up to joint fourth best with 22.
00:42:19
Speaker
Before this week, ah they were in the realm of bottom four. this is why statistics can be misleading. And this is why i don't, I don't want to keep bringing up the Texas state thing, but when we were doing our preview in the preseason, I don't think people listen to the episode beyond like a certain point because we called out,
00:42:44
Speaker
They were like, we only allowed X amount of points per game last year, you know, in 2024. And we read off the games. It was like, right, because you were beating the crap out of bad teams and then you were getting housed by the good ones.
00:42:58
Speaker
So it looks better at the end of the season. It's like, oh, we only allowed 23 and a half points per game or whatever the number was. And it's like, Right. But then you allowed 49 to Georgia state and you allowed, you know, a million points to Louisiana last year. It's like, yeah, cause you were beaten the really, really bad teams and you were getting smoked by everybody else. And that's why it looks even at the end of the season. Like the same thing happened here.
00:43:21
Speaker
We're going to go back next, next fall or summer and look and go, wow, Arkansas state, they had a lot of sacks last year. It's going like, Oh wait, they had nine sacks. Yeah.
00:43:32
Speaker
yeah wow You know, ah Jalen Rayner continues to play extremely well, despite not having a running game to back him up.
00:43:45
Speaker
21 of 29 to 47, two touchdowns, no picks. ah Kenyon Clay, their leading rusher only contributed 40 yards. uh rayner didn't need to do anything with his legs in this game he had 10 carries for five yards again they include the sack yards but his longest rush was three yards so it wasn't like he was running and they just weren't counting him um hunter summers four catches 70 yards and a score ah Jordan Lovett has sunk back into the the sunken place from get out, I guess, um with two carries for six yards after last week running for over 100 yards.
00:44:24
Speaker
We talked about how kind of good of a story it was, ah you know, but man, it this is just Troy vacillates between being like extremely inefficient And a passable, like normal looking football team.
00:44:43
Speaker
And this also... ah This is not like the only reason, but this is also why Southern Miss, I'm like, they're just head and shoulders better than like Troy.
00:44:53
Speaker
Because Troy will have these games in Southern Miss, like when they lose, you can see what should have happened and been like, all right, they just can't run the ball. like that's That's their Achilles heel. So when someone stops the pass, they're out of answers.
00:45:09
Speaker
Whereas Troy, you're like... what's their strength on offense running the football, I guess, or throwing it with kill crease, depending on the week. Like he could throw 400 yards. He could complete, you know, 19 passes for an average of four yards per completion. Like where, where are we at with him? So this is what I mean. It's just like, there's a serious gap between like even Arkansas state.
00:45:34
Speaker
There's a gap between them and Southern miss where it's like, you know, Arkansas state doesn't play defense. Like this week was an anomaly. ah This loss puts Southern Miss or the win or I don't know.
00:45:47
Speaker
Southern Miss didn't play this game, but this result put Southern Miss cleanly in the driver's seat in the West. Still has to play both Troy and Arkansas State this year. um And a loss to either could make The final week kind of interesting may come down to tiebreakers.
00:46:06
Speaker
Troy's loss to Arkansas State will obviously hurt them. Arkansas State's loss not coming to Troy, and but instead ULM, could ultimately hurt them. like Even if they hand Southern Miss a loss, tiebreaker-wise, they might still be screwed because their loss came to someone that might not be in the Mexican standoff.
00:46:27
Speaker
Yeah. Although I guess with, I don't know, we'll find out how it plays out over the next four or five weeks. It can get tricky.
00:46:37
Speaker
um But all of the sudden Southern Miss, I was very vehement and I was wrong. I thought so Southern Miss and Troy were both going to come into that final game undefeated in conference and and treat that as a semifinal, but that's just simply not going to be the case. Um,
00:46:52
Speaker
I think your point was right. it really just comes down to week-to-week consistency and week-to-week identity. um I wonder how much of that is having an established head coach in Charles Huff, a guy who has identities, versus Rob Parker, who's in just year two of his coaching head coaching career. um Look, man, I didn't expect Troy to be here at all.
00:47:17
Speaker
Yeah. So give them their flowers. My biggest defeat, of course, here is Butch Jones. I had to say it. Butch Jones, four wins in a row, has saved his job at Arkansas State. Yeah.
00:47:35
Speaker
blended well ah okay so you said that of having the established head coach in Charles Huff has helped Southern Miss I honestly think having a Butch Jones and I I still agree with you if Jalen Rainer's not on this team like we're looking at a South Alabama level team like they're they're going be able to score couple points but they're not going to score enough to stay in a lot of these games um I think him having been a head coach before and having coached at Arkansas State for years at this point, he he brings some level of like equilibrium to that team that, like again, Jared Parker doesn't at Troy because he's in year two.
00:48:16
Speaker
He, you have to presume he doesn't have, he's not playing the quarterback that he wanted to play at the beginning of the last two seasons because goose Crowder has gotten hurt in the last two years, this year and last.
00:48:29
Speaker
Um, but, There's just, yeah, the the the lack of week-to-week consistency of like, we're so I know it's Texas State, but Texas State has been in a shootout with this Arkansas State team. We're scoring 52 or whatever it is against Texas State one week, and then we don't get off the bus a couple weeks later against Arkansas State in a game at home against one of the worst defenses, and we allow nine sacks to one of the worst defenses in the conference.
00:48:57
Speaker
Okay. Okay. and And we don't know what we're getting out of our quarterback. We can't run the ball consistently. ah One week, Tay Meadows looks great. And then the next week, he has 48 yards on 19 carries. And you're just like, huh?
00:49:12
Speaker
And then Jordan Lovett, same thing. One week, he's got 100 yards rushing. The next week, he's got four carries for two yards. And you're like, all right, I have no idea what I'm getting out of anybody on this team.
00:49:23
Speaker
So... And defensively, they're also not not great, ah which which hurts a lot because you could kind of withstand some of these things if your defense was good. But they are a, I want to say, like firmly like middle of the pack defense, but that's just simply not good enough to get it done in a Sunbelt conference that basically has one good defense to spare.
00:49:46
Speaker
So... If you're not JMU's offense, like you're not getting away with a lot of these like underperformances because your defense just isn't good enough. Yeah, ah and i think it's really interesting that all of the sudden, maybe not all of the sudden, but it's very glaring this year more than previous years.
00:50:06
Speaker
There's no running games across the conference. The running back talent has really just evaporated overnight. it up, yeah. but Over the past like two or three years, granted they're not stars right now, but yeah this conference has sent four or five running backs to the NFL.
00:50:23
Speaker
Kamani Badal, Rasheen Ali is doing something. Frank Gore is like hanging around on practice squad. They're our guys. um And the the defenses as well have just evaporated overnight when the best team in this conference a couple years ago was Troy, who you could count on allowing less than three touchdowns a game.
00:50:44
Speaker
I mean, they lost their head coach. They are closer. I said this like weeks ago and even last season, and I still maintain like no matter what their record is.
00:50:56
Speaker
This hire of Jared Parker, you knew when John Summerall came in, it was a slam dunk. This is closer to like a Chip Lindsey-level hire where it's like...
00:51:08
Speaker
we haven't quite gotten there with the end result yet, which is, I think ultimately he's going to be let go after a certain point, because frankly, you just can't have these like peaks and valleys every week.
00:51:19
Speaker
And you got to stop relying on goose Crowder to stay healthy because it's not happening. But yeah i think all things equal, you know, we read off their resume last week. This game showed why all those games were kind of,
00:51:34
Speaker
not that impressive when you look at them under a microscope you're like don't look at the the winds too hard because if you do then you're like oh is this team a little fraudulent yeah probably like they're gonna they're gonna slip up and lose a game they have no business losing and then you know boom you're down 17 in the first quarter to arkansas state so all right they they might be shopping for someone We'll see.
00:52:00
Speaker
ah That pretty much wraps it up, Zeke. It was an underwhelming, very very short slate
Conclusion and Social Media Engagement
00:52:06
Speaker
of games. Let everybody know where they can find you on socials. Yeah, man. You can find me on Twitter at Zeke Palermo. Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O.
00:52:15
Speaker
I say every week. If you're really interested in the high school sports of Northwest Georgia, I'm your guy. Yeah. The Times New Roman newspaper. ah you can find You can find the show on X at Warm Weather Fans. You can find us on YouTube. ah you know Like i said, X, like a lot of our platforms at Warm Weather Fans. You can find me on Twitter at WatchTheStone. You can email us, warmweatherfans at gmail.com.
00:52:44
Speaker
We will be back later this week. We will preview the Thursday night game as well as all the week 11 games. This has been Warm Weather Fans.