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2025 Sun Belt Football: Week 12 Preview
78 Plays1 month ago
Brian and Zeke are back to talk over an upcoming week 12 in the Sun Belt, including a Thursday night contest between Troy and Old Dominion as a true title game eliminator.
The pair also goes over a matchup between Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern, and a whopping 20.5-point favorite James Madison welcoming App State to Harrisonburg.
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Transcript
Introduction to 'Warm Weather Fans'
00:00:16
Speaker
Welcome everybody back for our second episode of this week. This is the warm weather friend Sunbelt podcast. My name is Brian Stone joined by Zeke Palermo once again, and we're here to talk over week 12 in the Sunbelt, including an intriguing Thursday night game that we have coming on tonight.
00:00:33
Speaker
ah We'll talk over that. um Zeke, I don't know about all your neck of the woods.
Unexpected Weather Discussion: Snow in Early Season
00:00:39
Speaker
ah We're recording this on Sunday. It's supposed to be cold as hell here tomorrow, including there being a chance of snow.
00:00:50
Speaker
Oh, wow. Yeah, so we're kicking off chilly season very,
NBA Knowledge and Generational Gaps
00:00:57
Speaker
very early. But otherwise, how's it going? um It's good. I mean, we're dealing with that.
00:01:03
Speaker
Georgia weather that you're going to be so familiar with where it's off and on. I mean, we're going to hit low of 41 this week, but then the day following we get a ah low of 71. So it's like, okay, awesome.
00:01:16
Speaker
ah Something I want to hit before we move too far. Just ah how deep is your and NBA knowledge bag?
00:01:25
Speaker
um I don't know all of the role players. Sure. I'll say that. i Fear that I have hit unk status. Because I went to... ah I was at the Hawks-Lakers game. As we record this Monday, it was Sunday night.
00:01:44
Speaker
Splendid game without Trey Young or LeBron James. That was must-see TV. And 400-pound Luka Doncic jogging around. So exciting. um And I'm there with um my dad's girlfriend's son. He's 13. We're
Generational Anecdote at Hawks-Lakers Game
00:02:00
Speaker
there watching the game. And I'm 24. 24.
00:02:02
Speaker
There's 11 years between us. And, you know, he's a 13-year-old kid. I'm not going to blame him. He's like, hey, man, how deep's your bag? How deep's your bag? And he's given me – you ever heard of this guy, John Wall?
00:02:14
Speaker
Yeah, you've heard of. And so we we anyway, they you like superstars from like the late thousands. Yes, i exactly. Marcus Cousins is. Thank you. I was there. Thanks. um But we we start we transition into a conversation about three point shooters.
00:02:30
Speaker
um And I don't know. It developed from a conversation about Reggie Miller scoring 12 points in eight seconds. And anyway, yeah he's like. dude, you know who a legendary pole is? Because we're playing the name that guy game, of course, as everyone plays.
00:02:45
Speaker
Kyle Korver. And I'm like, we are in Atlanta. He was an all-star. are you? What are you talking about? he was He was one of the players of the month that year that they did the all starting five for Atlanta. You remember?
00:03:01
Speaker
Yes. i I was like, they won 60 games that year. What are you talking about? And it's just like, I can't be mad at this kid. He was like seven when that happened. Right.
00:03:12
Speaker
um You know what you should have done? This would have been a good one. You should have been like... i don't I don't know what this kid's name is, but you should have been like, insert name here. You know who's a really good three-point shooter?
00:03:23
Speaker
Great pull. And you just point at the Lakers head coach. And he's like, the podcaster? And you're like, yeah. It was the first time in my life that it was, and this is becoming an adult, that I was like, wait, no, I grew up with, what do you mean you don't know him?
00:03:41
Speaker
This was a, ah maybe not superstar, but an all-star of my childhood. Right. He's like, man, you know who was a good player that nobody knows about? Joe Johnson.
00:03:53
Speaker
And you're like, get out. ah like Get up. Leave right now. we're inlanta Josh Smith. You're like, all right. that's a big You ever heard of Paul Millsap?
00:04:08
Speaker
ah Do you know Al Horford played for the Hawks? Did you know that? um You know Celtics legend Al Horford? Yeah. Sixers legend Al Horford.
00:04:19
Speaker
um
Troy vs Old Dominion Game Preview
00:04:20
Speaker
So yeah. All right. let's Let's start off talking about tonight's game as as it's going to happen. ah Troy is traveling to Old Dominion ah to take on the Monarchs at 7.30 on ESPN Prime. So it's getting like regular good billing.
00:04:36
Speaker
um ODU is a 10.5 point favorite. This one is really tough for me because I think if you if you asked me, I would stay away from this game totally.
00:04:48
Speaker
And there are a couple reasons why. Number one, I would stay away from the spread because there's a chance that Old Dominion jumps on them and Troy scores like a garbage time touchdown late to pull within like seven.
00:05:02
Speaker
And then we're sitting on the podcast like next Sunday being like... Yeah, this was a this was a close game, but ultimately not really that close. But the final score says, you know, kind of like Texas State, Louisiana, or, you know, you know georgia Georgia Southern App State, like last week, where it was like, it was kind of like a fake comeback that like didn't really happen and doesn't really matter.
00:05:24
Speaker
So there's that. There's not knowing what you're going to get from Tucker Kilcrease, because look at the way that he played against Arkansas State the last time we saw him. Actually, the last two weeks, he's the last two games, he's not been good.
00:05:36
Speaker
You can't bet the spread because you don't know if Troy is going to score any points. So you can't take the over cut comfortably. I guess I would lean under if I had to take something, but then there's always the chance that like old dominions up 38 to 17. And you're like, why did I take the under in this game?
00:05:55
Speaker
But, but I, I guess the real question there is, do you, you're comfortable with like an old dominion, just straight up situation here. like, Moneyline. um I just want to make sure we're we're on the same page. that Yeah, me yeah, yeah.
00:06:10
Speaker
Like, Old Dominion wins, but again, Troy is such, like, a wild card that, like, you truly have no idea what you're getting from them on a weekly basis, and, like...
00:06:21
Speaker
I just, I think they could come out and make it look semi-competitive or they could come out and absolutely lay an egg and I wouldn't be shocked by either one, really. I think this game for, I don't know which half it'll be, but there will be an entertaining, interesting half where, you know, maybe Old Dominion goes up really early in the first half and Troy mounts, as you called it, kind of of a fake, not super legitimate comeback.
00:06:47
Speaker
That could get interesting or maybe, you know, we go into half 21-21. um there's There's going to be – and if you had told me that there was going to be any interest in this Old Dominion-Troy game at the beginning of the year, I would have called you crazy.
00:07:01
Speaker
um But Old Dominion is, again, kind of – they're fighting for that 1B spot in the conference between so them and Southern Miss, and both teams kind of want to pass that back and forth.
00:07:12
Speaker
fourth ah When you look at how Southern Miss played last week, um we talked about scoring only six points on six turnovers and then Old Dominion. um I'm going to forgive them for the James Madison loss, but that Marshall loss still really sticks in my head.
00:07:27
Speaker
Yep. Yeah. ah I think Old Dominion is ultimately a better team than Troy is. But like I said, it's like Troy one week can throw the ball and get 400 yards and three touchdowns out of kill crease. And then the next week it's we're running the ball at will with Meadows, but we got nothing in the passing game. And, you know, we're just...
00:07:49
Speaker
we we have no shot because we can't score ah quickly at all. So I truly, like, I i don't know. All
Marshall vs Georgia State Game Analysis
00:07:56
Speaker
right. So let's move on to the Saturday slate. Starting at two o'clock on ESPN plus, you got Marshall taking on your Georgia state Panthers. It is in center park.
00:08:07
Speaker
Marshall is only a six and a half point favorite. I think that's pretty juicy. Like I, I would jump all over Marshall Marshall coming off of, what, back-to-back losses the last two.
00:08:21
Speaker
i think they're going to be out for blood because Georgia State's not very good. If Cameron Brown is not playing, I like this 6.5 even more.
00:08:32
Speaker
ah And 62.5, I think I'd take the under on that as well. I don't know. you know i know last week ah Coastal kind of ran it up on them, but Marshall is so finicky. Like you don't know what version of Carlos Del Rio Wilson you're going to get.
00:08:52
Speaker
Actually, you know what? I would stay with you. Stay away from the total. Just take Marshall minus six and a half. Enjoy your win because you're not going to have to sweat it. Probably Marshall will probably get up big and then do the same thing that Coastal did where they they let them score.
00:09:07
Speaker
But in reality, it's like, OK, so you made it a two touchdown game. Great. Yeah, obviously a lot hinges on the quarterback. If we're going to have to see TJ Finley or we even saw for a couple snaps PJ Hatter in last week's game.
00:09:22
Speaker
So obviously that is how Georgia State's performance revolves. But we we know what Marshall is going to do. um They're going to score. I think pretty comfortably like 40 points here. I really don't see a world, even where Del Rio Wilson puts on one of his, like, like he did last week where,
00:09:42
Speaker
um reverts into kind of some old habits of what we believe were very check down Charlie, very short um with middling accuracy numbers. I think even in that world, ah he's so mobile or ah effective mobily.
00:09:56
Speaker
um And there's enough guys mar Marshall has to... actually make you make plays like Georgia state's got guys, right?
00:10:07
Speaker
Yeah. Offensively and defensively, they have guys, but the, the issue is that when you have a second receiver,
00:10:17
Speaker
you can't guard him. we We can lock down your one. We can't lock it. You know, the very basic issues there. So, I mean, I like Marshall.
00:10:28
Speaker
I don't dislike the over-under because Marshall's defense as of late, granted, this is a poor Georgia State offense that hinges on Cameron Brown playing, but this is not a great Marshall defense, right? They've they've allowed... Their 35 against James Madison is their lowest since late September.
00:10:45
Speaker
I mean, they've been allowing 40 or 50 pretty regularly, so... Yeah. I don't know. I'm not as scared of it as you are. I wouldn't advise it, but.
Georgia State Football Challenges
00:10:55
Speaker
How is Georgia State's run defense? Because we saw Antoine Roberts pop off ah against JMU.
00:11:02
Speaker
Does Georgia State have a bad run defense? I can't remember off the top of my head. ah It is better than you would expect for a one and whatever team.
00:11:14
Speaker
um One and eight. but Yeah. Yeah, it I don't think there's much to be taken um either way on that side. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but I really don't think there's a ton of ah things to learn from on that side.
00:11:30
Speaker
um I don't know if this is bad or not. I have morbidly, I have, I've been morbidly curious about that Georgia state podcast that the 24 seven, uh, site puts out. I'm like, what do you guys discuss exactly?
00:11:44
Speaker
Uh, now they're shifting it over to basketball, which is a good time. course. Of course. ah But I just meant like football wise, like when they were actually talking about the football team, like what what is there to talk about? Like Cameron Brown's good.
00:11:58
Speaker
Yes, we agree. The defense is bad. Yes, we agree. We can't really run the ball. Yes, we agree. All right. Next to next game here. ah Let's talk about next week. It's a tough spot to be in. And, you know, I don't know how long we're going to be stuck here and I don't feel great about it.
00:12:17
Speaker
might It depends on how long Del McGee is employed, to be totally honest. um All right.
App State vs James Madison Preview
00:12:24
Speaker
330 ESPN Plus. You got App State traveling to Harrisonburg to take on James Madison.
00:12:29
Speaker
JMU is a 19.5 point favorite. That seems like a lot of points. I know JMU has crushed teams in the past.
00:12:43
Speaker
But last week, like Marshall's good, but last week kind of gave me some pause as far as like these huge James Madison spreads and being like 20 points is a lot to have to cover.
00:12:57
Speaker
um I think if I had to take a number, I would take App State plus 19 and a half and just hope that AJ Swan is so bad early that they just put JJ Cole in and they're respectable for the rest of the game. And then you just kind of park the bus and are like, listen, we're just going to kind of ride this out and hope that like we don't get absolutely smacked.
00:13:19
Speaker
um I think James Madison is going to win, obviously, but AJ Swan, if he turns in a first half this week, like he turned in and against Southern, they're going to be down 42 at a halftime.
00:13:31
Speaker
Like he can't play the way that he did last Thursday against a team of James Madison's caliber. Uh, it's just like, Hey, what, what it's keep an eye on the, uh, the injury report. Like where, where's JJ Cole? Is this just mismanagement or something?
00:13:46
Speaker
Is he hurt? Do we not know something? Because that's, that's the only rationale for not playing him over Swan at this point. Yeah. I have absolutely no idea, uh, what the thought process is.
00:14:00
Speaker
i I didn't even see anything from Swan like in the games that he played early in the season. like Now, with the benefit of hindsight, I looked it up the other day because I was comparing Georgia Southern's stats to the other worst teams in the country.
00:14:17
Speaker
Charlotte is in the bottom of every defensive category. like They're almost dead last. they're It's like Southern... Air Force Charlotte. So that win over Charlotte looks less and less impressive all the time.
00:14:29
Speaker
And the numbers he put up there are just like kind of whatever. But when he has played, I'm like, get him off the field. Let JJ Cole play. Like, at least you got kind of something there to mess with.
00:14:41
Speaker
we We talked last or earlier in the week. we talked You and I talked like an hour ago, but as you listened to this earlier in the week about Rashad DeBinion, and I think it's kind of the same case too. He put up great numbers against Charlotte and against, I think it was Charleston Southern, was that their other?
00:14:59
Speaker
thought it Lindenwood. Lindenwood, yes, I'm sorry. so... and so I fear that maybe the Rashad opinion, opinion opinions that we have about like ah you mentioned last week, it feels like he runs with no juice or earlier this week, rather that he runs with no juice and just does looks kind of tired.
00:15:19
Speaker
It doesn't, it doesn't look like he's running well. um And the further we get away from those games, it it just feels more and more like, like AJ Swan. We, we fell for a facade in those early games.
00:15:33
Speaker
Well, i here' here's the part that gets me is, you know, we we talked about it on the recap of last week with the the Southern game, but you've got a guy in Jakari Lewis who had six carries for 50 yards and a score.
00:15:48
Speaker
why is he not seeing the volume that, and I know that Dubinian only had 12 carries, but why is he not seeing the same volume or, or why don't they switch roles where Dubinian is more of a change of pace, like come in for a breather type guy. Like you, you have seen throughout this season.
00:16:10
Speaker
He just like, again, I don't know if it's injury or whatnot. It just feels like he doesn't have any explosiveness. It feels like it's just, an average running back is out there, you know, but pick of the litter of whatever Arkansas state runner you want to grab out of the, out of the bag.
00:16:27
Speaker
He feels like he could slot in right there and average 3.8 yards per carry with the best of them. Like, I don't, I don't understand why he keeps getting the volume. He is, uh, there have been, there have been games where he hasn't,
00:16:40
Speaker
But recently I'm like, what what are we doing? Like, are we trying to win games? Are we trying to like make people feel better about themselves? Because it feels like they were like, DeBinion, you've got a locked in role. And then they haven't changed that opinion as the season has progressed. And that's ah that's a dangerous place to be when you have those kind of locked in priors that you refuse to ah take lock, I guess would be the the term for it. Like you just refuse to change your opinion.
00:17:07
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. um Another 330 kick. Yeah, another 330
South Alabama vs ULM Game Expectations
00:17:13
Speaker
kick. This is ah the toilet bowl here. ah so South Alabama is taking on ULM in Monroe.
00:17:21
Speaker
South Alabama is a three and a half point favorite. I have to agree with that. I will also say, go ahead and take the under of 51 and a half, because if ULM scores 14 points, we might need to call the national guard because something has gone terribly, terribly wrong.
00:17:40
Speaker
ah And South Alabama has zero offensive consistency. Like one one drive, they'll go down and and score in three plays. And then the next time, they'll be three and out like faster than you can you know before 30 seconds eclipses on the clock. It's just...
00:17:56
Speaker
and And do not watch this game unless you're a fan of one of these teams and you're just a diehard. Save yourself. Go watch App State James Madison or watch the end of Marshall Georgia State, I guess. Or watch this next game, Texas State Southern Miss. so Watch something else.
00:18:11
Speaker
like this is not This isn't it. Yeah, ah we've we've talked at nauseam all year about how poor ULM's offense is.
00:18:23
Speaker
South Alabama has its issues. This is a team that scored only 14 against Arkansas state a couple of weeks ago. Um, but that 14 points is enough to beat ULM in like half of their games.
00:18:35
Speaker
Yeah. the final do the tra The final score could be 14 to six and you'd be like, yep. Let's go. Right. Um,
00:18:47
Speaker
I don't know if they're just going to run back the Aiden Armenta thing. they keep that One week they took him out and they put somebody else in that was not good either, but then they put him back in the the last game and he wasn't good again. so I'm kind of like, we might be to Frank Gore Jr. territory where it's like, just let some guy run Wildcat. let like um What's his face? Mick Reynolds. guys Yeah, let Mick Reynolds just play Wildcat the whole game and just see what happens. like This is clearly not working, whatever this is.
00:19:17
Speaker
Yeah, you've got Landon Graves and Hunter Herring both taking snaps this year. your Graves is 19 for 40, and he's kind of been the the primary 1B. Herring is 5 for 8, but again, if he's 5 for 8, that means he's only thrown the ball 8 times.
00:19:34
Speaker
Well, he's like he's a Taysom Hill type. He is a tight end or whatever that is a quarterback when they put him back behind center, but they don't actually let... He basically just takes wildcat snaps.
00:19:49
Speaker
ah Yeah, three catches for 16 on the year. Yeah. So he's literally just Taysom Hill. Like he runs the ball. He'll throw it just enough to keep them off balance. And then he'll catch like a pass or two.
00:20:00
Speaker
um I don't know. ah Again, three another 3-30 game.
Texas State vs Southern Miss Strategy Analysis
00:20:05
Speaker
ESPN Plus Texas State is traveling to Hattiesburg to take on Southern Miss. um Texas State, as we talked about in the last episode, ah you have yet to win a Sunbelt game in the year of our Lord 2025. You have two more chances.
00:20:18
Speaker
This is, but you have three games. This is not one of those chances. You're not going to beat Southern Miss. ah Southern Miss is a six and a half point ah home favorite over under 64 and a half.
00:20:30
Speaker
um I think this would be an under for me. I think Southern Miss will get some stops a lot more than Louisiana did last week.
00:20:41
Speaker
ah They actually have a semblance of a defense. So, And we've seen with Texas State, if you get three stops off of their offense, their defense can't do anything.
00:20:53
Speaker
So Braylon Braxton might be able to throw nine touchdowns in this game. Like, ah who knows? Yeah, ah this is a pretty cut and dry one for me, although i there's a world where can you have a trap game two weeks in advance?
00:21:12
Speaker
Uh, for Southern Miss, you mean? Yeah. Like, like can they... Like, trap game of Troy? Yeah. Like, it or is... Could this be... i I don't know. Trap game isn't the right term, but, like, is there any world where they are looking so far ahead to that game that could ultimately decide their spot in the conference championship? I don't know. I'm looking for something interesting here because this is this is so cut and dry in Southern Miss' favor. Yeah.
00:21:39
Speaker
i I think your hope is what kind of happened a little bit last week against Arkansas State of Southern Miss, where Braxton gets banged up or injured or whatever temporarily, and then that Liddy guy comes in and plays. so I think their only hope is that the backup comes in and plays horribly.
00:21:57
Speaker
because if Which we've not seen, yeah. No, if Braxton is even... passable level quarterback, he will be, he could like put up career numbers like against this Texas state defense.
00:22:09
Speaker
My, my only thing to kind of counter what you said is Texas state truly does not get stops on defense. There's not a better way to emphasize that. Like there are teams that can do it that have bad defenses, but can do it in spurts.
00:22:24
Speaker
Texas state is with that, like South Alabama, Georgia state group where it's like, there are no games really where it's like, ah They have to hope that they are in a Georgia state JMU type of game where Southern miss is just not executing at all because again, Texas state's defense is not going to step up and make any plays that of consequence.
00:22:45
Speaker
So Your hope is that Braylon Braxton either eats, gets food poisoning the night before the game or gets injured, nicked up in some way and can't play. And then the backup's just bad.
00:22:56
Speaker
Like, I don't see another way other than those ways.
Coastal vs Georgia Southern Game Insights
00:23:00
Speaker
ah And then the last game of the night, six o'clock, Coastal is traveling to take on Georgia Southern in Statesboro. Coastal is red hot right now, five and one in the Sun Belt.
00:23:10
Speaker
um I think Southern comes back down to earth here. ah They have had issues with running quarterbacks, Jalen Rayner, Alonzo Barnett,
00:23:22
Speaker
Braylon Braxton if if you have a Russian quarterback you can go ahead and pencil in Colton Joseph for ah in a week or two ah if you have a quarterback that can I mean they struggled against Cameron Brown the only thing they had basically two defensive turnovers or whatever that they forced that changed the the total tone of that game but if you can stay in front of the chains and your quarterback is mobile They just they like refuse to put a spy on these guys. Like, I don't I truly don't understand what the defensive coordinator looks at on a week to week basis.
00:23:56
Speaker
They're going to come into this game and Samari Collier is going to take three three carries on design runs up the middle. And Brandon Bailey is going to be like, that's illegal. You can't do that. Like, that's going to be his his ah his comeback for that. Like, they they just have no answers.
00:24:12
Speaker
Right. Something we'll come back with next week, because I can't find this just immediately, is um opponent quarterback rush yards per game, because it does feel like Southern has got to be up there.
00:24:26
Speaker
um And again, I just don't have that like PFF page pulled up in front of me, and I can't find that on anywhere else. But ah yeah, you're right. Yeah. I'm excited to watch Samari Collier because I think kind of like he did last week, he's going to run buck wild and and he's fun to watch. He's just terribly exciting. um And for no reason other than that, um yeah there's there's an excitement level to this game because he he's just got so much energy around him.
00:24:55
Speaker
And Coastal's defense is playing like complimentary football now where your offense isn't a total zero. So you can kind of pin your ears back with some leads in these games and like really get after the the opposing quarterback.
00:25:09
Speaker
um Their defense has been a lot better post Tad Hudson. Like they have actually kind of strung together some good performances, you know, namely Marshall, Georgia State, like you talked about, had scored like 13 garbage time points like in the fourth quarter, basically.
00:25:26
Speaker
Like, otherwise, it was, what, 40 to 14 going into that fourth quarter. So it's just kind of like, Coastal's been able to put put together some good games. And so I just feel like they're going to get some stops.
00:25:40
Speaker
Southern's going to panic. I can't erase those series from the Arkansas state Southern game from my head where Jalen Rayner was just standing back to pass for like six seconds. And then he would just run in the middle and nobody would look at him.
00:25:55
Speaker
And I'm like, if you're going to do that against Collier, you can go ahead and say, Hey, guess what? We'll just take the L and move on in this one. Like, Because if Swan last week is not on that level of mobility of these guys, and and he did not attempt to run as much as Samari Collier will in this game.
00:26:15
Speaker
Yeah. so Gut and dry.
Episode Wrap-up and Future Teasers
00:26:18
Speaker
That will pretty much do it. Zeke, let them know where they can find you on socials. Yeah, man, it's really easy. At Zeke Palermo, Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O, tweet out to me your deepest and NBA poll.
00:26:31
Speaker
And please don't say Kyle Korver or I'm going to pull my hair out. Do you want me to do mine? give me Give me yours. Rajah Bell.
00:26:44
Speaker
That sounds like a guy that played for the Packers. Who am I thinking BJ Raji? B.J. Raji. That's who I'm thinking. I couldn't think of it. Yeah. Rajah Bell, me and my roommates in college had NBA 2K12.
00:26:58
Speaker
And I was playing with he was on the Jazz that year and they were terrible on the game. It was pretty much I think it was like the hate. They pretty much had like Hayward. And like that was it that time.
00:27:10
Speaker
ah And I found out that on that game, like I just couldn't miss with his jump shot. Yeah. So one of my roommates literally played me in five straight games. And the last game he picked the O one Lakers from the historic teams. And I dropped 91 on him with Rasha.
00:27:27
Speaker
Let's go. So that's my deepest pull just because I have that video game tied to him. ah As always, you can email the show warm weather fans at gmail.com. You can tweet at the show at warm weather fans on X, ah you know, follow me on X at watch the stone.
00:27:44
Speaker
We will be back next week to talk over all of these week 12 games. We're coming right to the end of Sunbelt season. and You know, the Sunbelt standings are kind of heating up race wise. You've got Coastal and JMU on one side. You've got this ah Southern Miss, you know, who who knows what you have with some of these teams in the West and who, you know, who, if anybody can catch them.
00:28:07
Speaker
ah So it's getting really interesting and and the standings are tightening up. So stay with us. This has been Warm Weather Fans.