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2025 Sun Belt Football: Week 11 Preview
80 Plays1 month ago
Brian and Zeke are back to talk over the upcoming week in the Sun Belt, including a Thursday night rivalry matchup between Appalachian State and Georgia Southern in Boone.
Elsewhere, the pair discuss whether James Madison will continue its roll against Marshall, a Sun Belt West showdown between Arkansas State and Southern Miss, and whether Texas State picks up its first conference win on Saturday.
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Transcript
Introduction to Warm Weather Fans
00:00:15
Speaker
Welcome everybody back to Warm Weather Fans. It is Brian and Zeke, your hosts for week 11 in the Sunbelt. We've got a Thursday night game to talk about, ah including that includes my Georgia Southern Eagles.
Impressions of Chad Powers Show
00:00:30
Speaker
Unfortunately, my Georgia Southern Eagles.
00:00:32
Speaker
ah Zeke, how are things going on your end?
00:00:37
Speaker
I'm good. Have you seen Chad Powers yet? I don't know that I'm going to watch that show, to be totally honest with you. Here's the thing. It was exceptional. It was, no joke, top five for me, all time.
00:00:50
Speaker
It was incredible. Glenn Powell is great. Mark Sanchez's wife is exceptional. Who Mark Sanchez's wife? Her name is Perry Matfeld, and she is the the lead actress in the show.
00:01:05
Speaker
um And she is exceptional. Exceptional. ah now a from we kid Now, does the show end with her getting stabbed by an old man?
00:01:17
Speaker
No, no. Oh, what a bummer. I know, unfortunate.
Zeke's Experience as Extra
00:01:22
Speaker
And I'm actually in the show. ah You can't see me, but they recorded a scene at a Georgia game where he runs on Glenn Powell's character, runs on the field and takes in Sanford Stadium.
00:01:34
Speaker
And I'm up there in the 300 section. Yeah. um So if you can find me, I couldn't.
Critique of Show's Humor
00:01:44
Speaker
I just have a hard time watching shows like this where it's like, I watched the trailer or the commercials that they would constantly air.
00:01:51
Speaker
And I was like, are these the funniest jokes in the show? Like, because these are brutal. like the joke The jokes are not funny. The jokes that they wrote into the show are not funny.
00:02:05
Speaker
But the, ah I think again, Mark Sanchez's wife is very funny. Her facial expressions are incredible. Glenn Powell's delivery. He really impressed me as a comedy actor delivering non-jokey lines.
00:02:20
Speaker
um I really, it's six episodes. It's worth a watch. I've got a recommendation for you if you like Glenn Powell. there He did a movie with ah Richard Linklater for Netflix called Hitman.
00:02:33
Speaker
That was great. I can't recommend it enough. Like, you said it was a series? No, it was ah is a movie. It's just called Hitman. Oh!
00:02:48
Speaker
yeah i remember at least seeing a poster for this. Okay. I'll report back next week. Yeah, it's it's great. So if you really like him in that type of role, like he really gets to kind of like spread his wings more than, you know, everybody liked him in Top Gun Maverick, but he's really just kind of doing an Iceman impression where it's like that movie like finally lets him like be like a regular person kind of for a minute. And I'm like, oh, this is nice.
00:03:14
Speaker
ah You don't have to basically be a borderline superhero for the first time ah that I've seen you. Yeah.
Analysis of Georgia Southern vs. App State Game
00:03:21
Speaker
All right. We talked about it Thursday night. Georgia Southern is heading to Boone to take on app state ah app is a five and a half point home favorite over under is 62 and a half.
00:03:32
Speaker
um I may do the JMU move that I did against Georgia Southern, where I moved the line for more points. I may get this one up to seven and a half, eight and a half for app. ah Georgia Southern, whether it be through,
00:03:49
Speaker
injury attrition guys sitting out for the rest of the season you know uh josh dallas uh chance gamble like latrell bullard like all these guys whether it be through injury attrition lack of knowledge uh at the defensive coordinator and offensive coordinator spots and head coach for that matter uh and The fact that JC French is not good enough to just put a team on his back the way that like a Colton Joseph or a Jalen Rayner is makes me think this one's not going to be close. I think app runs away with this one.
00:04:23
Speaker
And we had talked about in their previous episode in our previous episode, when we talked about week 10, about their lack of success running the football. If there's one thing we know after watching Arkansas State against Southern and then this last week against Troy, if there's a remedy to not being able to run the football, it's playing Georgia Southern's defense because they made Kenyon Clay look like a future pro player. And then he ran for, i think, 40 yards this last week against Troy.
00:04:50
Speaker
So, Dominion, whoever else they want to throw out there at running back is going to go over 100 yards. I don't know if they let you bet yardage for individual players in college. Take that over.
00:05:01
Speaker
Take the team total for rushing over. Like, i don't know if AJ Swan or JJ Cole is going to start. I frankly don't think it really matters. I think every... Every team that has played Southern this year, if you have thrown the ball, you've wasted a down.
00:05:18
Speaker
That's the way I feel about it. So it's like, you need to be running the ball every play because they will give up six yards to carry. So they may get you on first down. The next two carries are going to go for 12.
00:05:29
Speaker
So it's like, why, why even put the ball in the air? You're just asking for trouble. So I think that's, yeah. I mean, app, I think runs away with this one. Like they've not been good this year. Both teams are one in three in the Sunbelt, but they have, I can kind of see the vision with app in a way that Georgia Southern,
00:05:48
Speaker
It looks like Clay Helton's getting up there and those smiles are getting a little tighter every week where, you know, he can't quite muster like the full on, you know, Cheshire cat that he was ah last year.
00:06:01
Speaker
It's getting to be where AD is going on his, like whatever week, this weekly Georgia Southern show with the, the guy that does the radio broadcast and is like straight up finally addresses anything.
Challenges for Georgia Southern
00:06:15
Speaker
And it's like, I know we're not where we need to be at. This is below our standards, like blah, blah, blah. That may all be lip service. And we may be running this back all next year with the coaching staff, but it's at least acknowledged this season is not going well. And I feel like this team is just kind of thrown in the towel because frankly, I don't, I don't think they're very good.
00:06:32
Speaker
I'll be grateful. You've at least heard from the AD. The line here is at minus five and a half. That's juicy. Also juicy, the over under 63 points are not going to get scored in this game.
00:06:46
Speaker
Yeah. ah It's just simply not going to happen. Neither of these, granted, neither of these defenses are good.
Marshall vs. James Madison Preview
00:06:54
Speaker
And at any given moment, you think that they could allow the 32 points requisite to do that.
00:07:00
Speaker
ah Neither of these offenses, JJ Cole, AJ Swan have, AJ Swan in particular has really nosedived. JJ Cole is proving to be a solid, but not world beater.
00:07:12
Speaker
um Rashad DeBinion, as you said, is going run buck wild, but like, I just don't see the points coming in this one. JC French has one play, which is throw it to Camden Brown.
00:07:24
Speaker
He doesn't have another. i mean, i don't know what, I don't know if Dalen Cobb, like, I don't know if he got into a space jam situation where he touched a football that was like haunted by aliens. They stole his talent.
00:07:38
Speaker
He's been awful this year after being pretty good last year. He's had like one play all year where he like, got a kick return for a score. I think they, that happened in the Jacksonville state game.
00:07:48
Speaker
ah He's had balls. He, he was the one I told you weeks back when, when they finally let Weston Brian throw a ball, he was the one that let it bounce off his face. Yeah. I mean, he's been awful. They don't have a second receiver.
00:08:02
Speaker
I mean, i don't care. they've They've been rolling this like Taylor Bradshaw guy out. He's not good. He has led to multiple interceptions, whether through drops or not being able to know how to like run routes properly.
00:08:14
Speaker
They basically went into the season and was like, if Josh Dallas and or Camden Brown get hurt, our season's over. And that's exactly what happened, which is Dallas is hurt. And from what reporters have said is out of there at the end of the season.
00:08:29
Speaker
So Camden Brown jump balls are basically the entire offense. They don't have a tight end that can catch. Um, OJ Arnold does not work in between the tackles on a down to down basis. He can rip off a run here or there, but he works better, works better almost as like a third down receiving back in space. They just can't, they can't generate offense with this, this team.
00:08:50
Speaker
And then like you said, defensively, they don't play a lot of def defense. So it's like not a great recipe for, uh, whatever they're trying to do, which is, I'm still, still grasping at that. I don't know what they're going for. um All right.
00:09:02
Speaker
I think we're both firmly on app there. yeah I don't think there's any, any, any real question. ah All right. Saturday, let's start at noon on ESPN two.
00:09:15
Speaker
Marshall is coming off of a 17-point loss to Coastal. They now have to welcome in James Madison, who is a 13.5-point road favorite. I think this one's going be ugly again for Marshall um because...
00:09:31
Speaker
i think I think James Madison is going to go look at that ODU tape, and Bob Chesney is going to cut it off and walk up to the front and go, do you want to look like do you want that to happen? And JMU is going to go, nope.
00:09:42
Speaker
And then that's they're going to be locked in because they already know that this team upset Old Dominion weeks back, and they just got their butts handed to them on ah Thursday night by ah giving up a ton of turnover. So I think JMU wins the turnover battle again.
00:09:59
Speaker
And I think that that Marshall, they have a nice little team, but they're not they're not on this level. We've seen multiple teams go up against JMU and just get absolutely buzzsawed.
00:10:12
Speaker
Yeah, um yeah i even without the turnovers, james's James Madison's defense is going to make it look like they turned the ball over five, six times in that game. Yeah.
00:10:24
Speaker
it's It's pretty cut and dry to me. I think a 13.5 road favorite is something i don't know that I've seen in conference at least ever. I mean, that that is obscene, but it does not feel actually that crazy.
00:10:40
Speaker
um Because Marshall is not – I just don't see Marshall coming back with that bite that after a really ugly loss, i just it it ain't going to happen.
00:10:51
Speaker
There's really, really no way.
Marshall's Season Reflection
00:10:54
Speaker
ah we We haven't really talked about it. Marsha was another fan base that was very, very upset at us about our preseason prediction. And it's like their offense has been better than I expected.
00:11:06
Speaker
And they beat Old Dominion, which I didn't expect. But ultimately, I think the result is going to be roughly what we said, which is like Six wins is probably going to be the ceiling here.
00:11:17
Speaker
I think they probably lose one more game after this one. And then you're you're six and six or whatever at the end of the season. And it's like... Was that, you know, again, Marshall fans upset at us before the season started. Was that a success to get to six? I guess so.
00:11:32
Speaker
In Tony Gibson's first year, like yeah there's something to build off of, but people were, there were Marshall Twitter accounts and I know that they're not the end all be all for information as recently as last week before the Saturday night game or the Thursday night game that we're like, all we got to do is beat JMU and we're in the the conference title game. And I'm like,
00:11:56
Speaker
Technically, that's true. Yeah. It's going to happen. No, you guys are on on another planet with that. i I'm one lottery ticket away from a private yacht, man, but from my own million-dollar mansion. um I think Marshall could – do think – I will say I think – following what we think will be a relative handling at the hands of James Madison.
00:12:22
Speaker
I think Marshall could finish with seven wins. They finish at Georgia state at app and versus, uh, they welcome in into Georgia Southern to finish it. Of those three app app is the only losable game. yeah That's what I'm, that's what I'm thinking is like, they lose six. I'm not ready to call that a loss yet. Um, both of those teams are just so volatile that,
00:12:47
Speaker
shoot, you know, maybe app puts up the stinker that Marshall put up last week against coastal. I, so I, is this not a relative success considering you started from without the best defensive player, not just in the ah conference, but from a statistical perspective, probably the country, the best quarterback in the conference, the coach of the year from last year,
00:13:11
Speaker
Well, i'm not going to give them I'm not going to give them credit for losing the coach of the year. They shot themselves in the foot. hey um' not I'm not saying that they it wasn't their fault, but think this is a win for them. I mean, to even be bowling, I think, is a huge success.
00:13:29
Speaker
But ah our preseason prediction was like, their ceiling is five. If they win six, is it that crazy to be like, hey, you guys are going win five this year? That's what I don't get. Like you can't, I understand Carlos Del Rio Wilson's been good.
00:13:46
Speaker
You can't erase the way that they started the season because that, ah you know, you lose to an FCS call up by a point, you know, there's there's things in there that are like true problems.
00:13:58
Speaker
Yeah, sure. If they get to six wins, they make a bowl game that I will count that as a success. And I guess, I guess I'll say hand up. I was wrong, but like, the the the forecast was like four or five wins. It's like, if they win six, do I feel like an idiot? Not really.
00:14:14
Speaker
Like, I'm just, okay, I was one off. ah But, yeah, I I think JMU handles them. I also don't know if you saw this. A couple weeks back, there was ah a Marshall Twitter account that was crashing out because they said, and I quote, Georgia Southern doesn't deserve to be App's rival, so that should just be us.
00:14:37
Speaker
We should just take over that rivalry. And people, even App fans were like, what the F are you talking about? And it was just like, ah was like, hey, Siri, what's the color of Envy?
00:14:49
Speaker
Oh, green? Cool. That's appropriate. So i I was just like, yeah. um You know, it's sad that they were just like, let's take over this rivalry that has been in place for 30 years.
00:15:04
Speaker
It's not happening. You're not just taking that
Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss Preview
00:15:06
Speaker
overnight. ah But anyway, good luck against James Madison on Saturday. Really... Really hope you guys go out and have a great time. ah Another noon kick. ESPNU Southern Miss takes on Arkansas State.
00:15:19
Speaker
Arkansas State coming off of back-to-back wins over Georgia Southern and Troy are now firmly in second in the Sun Belt West. This is the barometer for Southern Miss.
00:15:30
Speaker
I mean... You're going to play Arkansas State and Troy to kind of wrap this season up. You win both of those. I mean, you can you you're Waltz and end into the title game. You could probably rest your starters in the final game of the season against Troy. If if Troy loses again, i i would i wouldn't play him until I absolutely had to. I'd save Braxton and everybody else for the title game and be like, I'm good. We don't need game 12 action. This is basically like a we've wrapped up a playoff spot in the NFL and we're sitting our guys week 18.
00:16:01
Speaker
Yeah. ah ah Southern Miss wins this one fairly comfortably. I think – I mean, they're just going to put up points against Arkansas State. ah The Red Wolves are feisty. They've won their last four.
00:16:13
Speaker
ah But that all sparked from a loss – back-to-back losses from ULM ah and then a now bowl-eligible Kennesaw State, and then preceded by those by even more losses to Iowa State and Arkansas. Yeah.
00:16:28
Speaker
I don't think this one is terribly close. I think Southern Miss not to the same degree that James Madison is head and shoulders. I mean, they're head, shoulders, knees, and toes above the rest of the East.
00:16:39
Speaker
Southern Miss is head and shoulders above Troy and Arkansas State, who are kind of jostling for that number two position. um So I think they win by at least a score here, but it could be an interesting game for sure.
00:16:53
Speaker
Arkansas State had nine s sacks last week, so never know when that's going to happen again. i Probably never. um I'm going to go and say that that wasn't because Arkansas State found the juice.
00:17:08
Speaker
Call me crazy. um
Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State Discussion
00:17:12
Speaker
All right. Four o'clock. This is your game. ah Georgia State is traveling to Conway to take on Coastal Carolina. Coastal is only a six and a half point favorite. I like them in this one.
00:17:23
Speaker
This is another move the line for more points. I don't understand why it's only six and a half. They just they just beat Marshall by 17 points. They've beaten app. um They're five four and one in the Sun Belt or five and three overall.
00:17:38
Speaker
They're playing this the easily with the worst team here in Georgia State at home. I don't know. I mean, i guess the hope is that you get caught up in a shootout and that ah coastal doesn't um Coastal doesn't force any turnovers the way that they did last week of of Carlos Del Rio Wilson. But I just don't see a ah world in which Georgia State gets enough stops to win this game.
00:18:01
Speaker
the The worst case scenario here is that we get behind early. Maybe you see the turnovers, which again, I don't know how much of those were Coastal Carolina turnovers versus Marshall crap in the bed.
00:18:18
Speaker
But the real worst case scenario for me is Cameron Brown goes out there again, throws an early pick, maybe underperforms, goes into half, sub, sitting around 55% maybe.
00:18:32
Speaker
t j let go
00:18:37
Speaker
Yeah, and then they lose by 24. I mean, you talked about the the Space Jam. It's like, again, you know, Georgia State was no world beater, but they were a perennial bowl contender.
00:18:48
Speaker
um They got Space Jammed with Kennesaw State. And it's just like, all right, I don't even know, SOCON or what conference do we go down to in the FCS if we get demoted?
00:19:01
Speaker
keep Keep our seat warm because we're on the way, man. it is It's looking really, really bad. and and it ahringing I wonder at what point the the Atlanta market stops being such so like delicious to the Sun Belt when it's like,
00:19:20
Speaker
Georgia State's got, what, a pretty good but ah basketball team? Yeah, like good basketball, great baseball within the conference. But football-wise, I mean, it it looks like, until they fired Del McGee, at least, it's like back to the dark ages of, like,
00:19:36
Speaker
You know, we're just hoping to win two games this season, three games. You know, someone's got to be, ah this is a poor analogy now that they're a very highly ranked team, but someone has to be the Vanderbilt of the conference where you're holding up some of the other sports.
00:19:51
Speaker
But at least you want a degree from Vanderbilt. Right. And Georgia State is what Georgia State is, which is not the... It's not the clandula cram of the Georgia State schools, which is fine. I don't call it the Dartmouth of Atlanta for no reason. not um
Texas State vs. Louisiana Game Analysis
00:20:11
Speaker
All right. ah Last game of the night here, a 5 o'clock kick. Texas State is traveling to Louisiana ah to take on the Cajuns.
00:20:18
Speaker
Texas State at 3-5 and 0-4 is a 2.5-point road favorite. road favorite
00:20:27
Speaker
is there some inside information that I'm not privy to is is lunch Winfield getting a briefcase full of gold bricks to throw this game what are are we doing the NBA thing where like you know DeSorbo's getting a call and he's like you need to but you need to bench lunch right now and he's like okay he just like all right go to the bench let's see what Will Howard's or uh what's his name Scott yeah yeah uh ah Walker Howard. Walker Howard. I'll be granted I haven't been tuned into the Louisiana games when he's gotten that like one, two, three snaps.
00:21:02
Speaker
Someone let us know, please. Maybe I just text Matt. Is this so that he gets film for his next portal adventure? like Is there going to be another one? Who knows? Would anybody want him based on what he's put on film this year?
00:21:17
Speaker
He's been hurt, man. I... i I think I disagree with you. At the bare minimum, I know Texas State can put up points. And even with lunch in the driver's seat, ah this team has put up stinkers. 10 against Southern Miss. Again, a better Southern Miss team than Texas State. A better defense than Texas State.
00:21:38
Speaker
Point three against Troy. Only, i say only, but 31 against South Alabama doesn't wow me. Because there's a world where you go out and put up 31 against Texas State. I know the Bobcats are going score.
00:21:51
Speaker
I like Texas State here. Okay. there There's a floor there that I that i know that I'm getting. i think I think you're right there, but there's never a guarantee that you're going to get a stop in a game with Texas State.
00:22:08
Speaker
that's my That's my issue. and And we've talked about what Louisiana's problems are in in previous weeks, but it's like... There is a world where you saw the way Lunch played last week against, you know, what was a Not a good defense, but Texas State's not any better.
00:22:28
Speaker
like Who's to say he doesn't go 18 of 19 for 270 yards and four touchdowns or whatever? And you're just like, he completed every pass. like we We don't know what to do. He's throwing the ball down the field and we can't defend it. like I don't know. He has those games where it's just like...
00:22:47
Speaker
He's like a Jamal Crawford off the bench in the NBA where it's like he's just a microwave. Like he just comes out flamethrower. And then some games it's just like it's just not there. And there's no real rhyme or reason to why.
00:23:00
Speaker
ah It's usually teams that can get pressure, I would say. And do we know anybody on Texas State that can rush the passer? I don't. Not really.
00:23:12
Speaker
but I don't know. That's my thing. is if you want but If you let lunch just sit in the pocket for six seconds, I think he's going to hurt you. yeah He'll definitely cut him up. um But we've.
00:23:26
Speaker
don't know. I like the floor on Texas State more than I like Louisiana's. Well. Zeke's still pulling for you, Bobcats. ah It happened last year. He's bringing it back. yes No, no, no, no.
00:23:39
Speaker
College football playoff at the end of the season. Oh, goodness.
Texas State's Sunbelt Struggles
00:23:43
Speaker
no um Yeah, hopefully hopefully Texas State's able to pick up their first Sunbelt win because I can't think of things that would be more embarrassing than than moving on to the Pac-12, peacocking it all offseason, and then finishing winless in the Sunbelt on the way out would be maybe the most humiliating thing I've heard of in a minute.
00:24:03
Speaker
ah Talking about how poor all the other programs are and we're going be raking in the cash. That may be true. You guys may be the Georgia State of the Pac-12 while you're making all that money. But, you know, sure, you guys can be making money hand over fist.
00:24:20
Speaker
but But you're not winning any games. So as long as you're fine with that, go for it. Yeah. um Texas teams don't belong in a conference called the Pacific.
00:24:32
Speaker
Call me crazy. Call me crazy. That's why they call it the Gulf or whatever. you know They're like Pacific Ocean's right there. All right. ah Let's wrap this
Show's Contact Information
00:24:44
Speaker
up. so You can email the show, warmweatherfans at gmail.com. You can follow us on X or YouTube, warmweatherfans or at warmweatherfans.
00:24:51
Speaker
You can follow me on X at watchthestone. ah Zeke, let them know where they can follow you, and then we'll get out of here. Yeah, man. I'm on Twitter, at Zeke Palermo, Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O.
00:25:03
Speaker
Thanks everybody. And we will be back to review the week 11 games and talk about the upcoming week 12. This has been one with the Bates.