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00:00:01
Moreira's Magic SPECIAL! | #PODPOD
170 Plays2 years ago
The AFL Fantasy GOAT Selby Lee-Steere (coach of 2017+2018 winner Moreira's Magic), joins Holmesy for a special edition of the PODPOD! With two top 10 hats of his own, Holmesy asks all the right questions to ensure you're ready to make two of your most critical trades of the season.
Selby gives his thoughts on all the hottest topics in the fallout of round 1, including what to do with Tom Stewart, Josh Kelly, and Tristian Xerri, is Kyle Chandler a 'must have', and his thoughts on Setterfield, Green, Callaghan, Sean Darcy, Worpel, Will Day, Ed Richards, and much, much, more!
Check out https://moreirasmagic.com.au/ for more amazing content from the GOAT!
Follow us on Twitter!
PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Selby: @MoreirasMagic
Dos: @HKdos
Lewy: @LewyAF
Statesman: @Statesman33
Harmey: @jonharmey
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Transcript
00:00:02
Speaker
you
Holmesy seeks advice from Selby
00:00:17
Speaker
All right, guys, welcome to a very special episode of the Pod Pod today. Holmesy here, bit of a dejected Holmesy, but I've decided that the only way to sort of get my season back on track and to help the listeners keep flying is to get help from the man that has shaped fantasy as the way it is today, the goat you know him as, Selby, from Moreira's Magic. So Selby, mate, thank you for giving your time up tonight to help me get my season back on track. But how you going, mate?
00:00:44
Speaker
I'm a bit dejected myself, but thanks for having us on. I also copped a lot of hits which you copped on the weekend, so it'd be good to see how we're going to attack that. But, no, a pleasure. I've enjoyed these little one-on-ones you've done all pre-season with some big names there, so hoping I can live up to the rest of them.
Selby's fantasy success and strategy shift
00:01:04
Speaker
Yeah, so before we get started, I'm sure all of our listeners know who you are, but just give a little bit of a background about, you know, your fantasy successes, what you've done and what you're sort of doing this season in terms of your Supercoach and your Moreira's Magic platform.
00:01:19
Speaker
Yep, so one fantasy outright 2017 and by a significant margin I think it was 550 points or so, which it's funny even at that time I was nervous come around 23 thinking, well there's a chance here that Brandon Ellis could get a 0 and someone could get a 150 and it's funny how it plays on your mind this fantasy.
00:01:41
Speaker
obviously landed on this structure which works, which was purely playing that value game, moving away from the old school guns and rooks and targeting those who
00:01:52
Speaker
outperformed their price, which is pretty commonly known this day and age, but at that point in time, it wasn't the common way. Then backed it up the next season, essentially following the exact same structure, strategy, priced out players what I think they can do, trades, and approved successfully again. Came equal first with
00:02:15
Speaker
James or Shui Shockers, where that then stamped that blueprint of what I think takes to have success in this game.
00:02:25
Speaker
Made me believe in it. So from there, I've obviously built this Marrero's Magic named after my team name at the time. Matty DeBaugh, good mate of mine, not a good mate of many fantasy coaches, given he tagged a lot of our players throughout the years. I was, I used to work with him in Sydney and he said to me, mate, you know, you can probably sell some of this information. Like he'd won it two times in two years, lots of people came out there, I said, mate,
00:02:53
Speaker
One, two cars in two years. I don't want to be that greedy prick who tries to get more. And he was on the board at Starlight. That's when that Starlight association kicked
Fantasy insights for charity
00:03:00
Speaker
off. It was his initiative to say, well, how about we use this as a fundraiser, 30 buck donation.
00:03:06
Speaker
And it goes from there, which is taken off. I think we've done that now for six years, where the season preview, where the majority of the proceeds do continue to go to Starlight. And then what's grown in the last couple of years is we do an in-season package. Again, I felt that there was that want to need for deep dive analysis and a bit more
00:03:27
Speaker
Content, which is fast forward today, there's so much of it out there, which is great. I'm lucky I love consuming the content. I enjoy presenting the content. I encourage those people who want to do it to continue to do it because you do get a lot out of it and some satisfaction. But yeah, I'll say on the outside and don't play fantasy now. I haven't played it for the last couple of years. I did come back in 2020. There's a few reasons why I don't play now. The main run, the way I sell it, which is true, if I want to give the best advice possible,
00:03:57
Speaker
And I was also playing. I'm a competitive man. I'd want to win that I'd be holding back some of my best advice. So by not playing and knowing that I've got people paying for advice, I can give.
00:04:08
Speaker
non-conflicted advice, but realistically, it's a combination between that, knowing that there's every chance I can come 20,000th one year, knowing how hard the game is and how much luck's involved, and people think I've lost it, I've got a bit of a reputation to uphold. And finally, because of that reputation, I do feel a lot of pressure and stress to succeed. So in 2020, given that there was a change in rules, more trades, small rounds,
00:04:33
Speaker
Games came back and gave it a whirl there and ended up doing pretty well there. I think I finished 33rd, it was 16th, heading into the last round, took some punts. So I feel like what I've done in fantasy is there's not much else for me to achieve. So I'm quite happy seeing on the sidelines, watch it all play out.
Why Selby stopped playing fantasy
00:04:50
Speaker
This Marrero's Magic, with Cosmo, I've got it all set up with stats and projectors and tools. It's quite easy to replicate to Super Coach, which I never had given much serious time before, playing-wise.
00:05:03
Speaker
So we've been giving content for that last year. So I put in a team same thing. No pressure if it does no good I can either blame my man who was giving advice on supercoach or just says a different game and managed to come Technically eighth. I think it was in the end On that so here we are again. I'm back in season two and the pressure is back again to succeed which We all know and love
00:05:28
Speaker
Yeah, and I've been doing these interviews in the preseason and I sat down with, well, I messaged you on Twitter and I was really keen to get you on. And we sort of had the discussion that it probably wasn't fair that you're, you know, having people pay to hear your advice and all your good takes. And, you know, it wouldn't be great to have you giving that out for free in the preseason. So we've decided to do it round one. You've got your in-season package now.
00:05:53
Speaker
Back when I came second in 2021, a long time ago now, but it would not have been possible without your guide, your podcast that you do with Zave every week. The stats that
In-season insights package
00:06:04
Speaker
allows the price projector, the email that comes out every Thursday with all the trade targets and what you've done in the past and how you've played it is a seriously valuable tool.
00:06:13
Speaker
I would highly recommend anyone that's listening to this podcast today. Yeah, we're going to deep dive, but if you want to hear from Selby each and every week, which I'm sure a lot of you do, jump across there, sign up. It's only, I think, $2.95 a week, but you can also pay all up front. And yeah, like I said, it's some goes to charity, which is awesome as well, but I would highly recommend it. So I really appreciate you jumping on Selby and helping all of us fantasy coaches, some of us flying, some of us not.
00:06:41
Speaker
It's nice to know that we've got someone like you giving us advice so that we can help fix up our teams moving forward into round two. So let's get stuck into a little bit. So we'll do a little bit of a retrospective here in terms of starting squads. So with how everything's played out in round one, looking back, how do you think we should have started in terms of our structures and what should we be looking to do coming into rounds two and three with these fix-up trades?
Round 1 review and value strategy
00:07:07
Speaker
Yeah, it was an interesting round one where we had Uber's top end on each position, which I think if you ask 99% of the good coaches out there would have been unanimous that lead was going to be the number one scoring mid and Dunkley, the number one scoring forward. And they both underperformed Marshall. I think people potentially would have thought he would have been number one. I think if by the end I had him ranked one too. So we had a week of
00:07:34
Speaker
Underperforming Ubers, which if you follow the old, the new school philosophies, which a lot do, which is hunting that value, then the Laird one, I think hopefully you did avoid that. But again, there is merit to, you understand why people did start with Laird, particularly on the back of his second half last year in his pre-season. But retrospective, I think it's going back to the world of hunting value.
00:07:59
Speaker
in all positions, even though we want to cap an option, I like to find value in all. So when it comes to, when it talks structure, I was big on those five big premium forwards. I think initially it seemed like a bit of a stretch to even fit four of them in there. Then when Gordon put his hand up in the pre-season, I was like, well, I want all of them in there. My structure, I wasn't confident in those mid price
00:08:25
Speaker
Forwards being a Horned Francis, a Tanner Bruin, a Flanders, a Zebel who's since now put his hand up, a Ben Long, a Melira. I didn't love them. Schieze will show to you. He provided enough in the pre-season. I was pretty confident going in with five premium Forwards, one rookie, I think in hindsight now, knowing how
00:08:49
Speaker
the potential of a Zebel and a Horned Francis, potentially you could have run it amid price there but I think retrospective I'd continue with that way.
Ruck strategies discussion
00:08:59
Speaker
Rux, well that R2 position was such a tricky one, that was a talking point of the summer. I think hindsight I'm still a Marshall and even now the questions are coming in to your trade Marshall and for me it's certainly not. I think he's going to continue to be a top two Ruck from now to the end of the year.
00:09:18
Speaker
Whereas that R2 position, which had so many question marks, and now it's funny retrospect, if you look at them, Gorn performed with Grundy, Darcy performed, he increased his CBA 10% from the year before without Jackson and with Jackson. English face it too, once it took them down, Witz had the easy match-up solo ruck.
00:09:37
Speaker
was the highest performing ruckman. Darcy Cameron looked fine, didn't score, but looked pretty good. So at the end of the day, there was no real wrong answer, except for the one I took in my super coach, which is Cherry, who ironically had the highest points per minute amongst all ruckmans that could have actually been the right answer. So retrospective, I'm not sure what the answer would be. I'm personally getting, trying to get my Cherry up to a Timmy English now, now that I know that he doesn't look like he's had throughout the interrupted pre-season and he's got that tough matchup out of the way.
00:10:09
Speaker
midfield.
Midfield strategy analysis
00:10:10
Speaker
So I always still like to pay up for a decent midfielder to be a captain option and potentially be a high scorer. But I think it was harm on harm. Two years ago, you spoke to on this or maybe a year ago made the point that took Miller before he was the number one player was a 37th best
00:10:29
Speaker
Midfielder, it's very rare you get the same person back up. So I try to identify who I think is going to be the highest scoring mid and start with him. And this year I thought it could have been a Kelly or a McRae. So I probably would have gone that way. Hindsight, all these mid prices all popped, whether it was a set of field, a Walpole, that you could have probably taken a shave down from that and gone more that next sweet spot of that price at 95, your LDUs,
00:10:59
Speaker
I was big on Nairo Anderson, still kind of am, but I potentially would have gone there. But you probably, the question is always how many mid price are too many. But I think in hindsight, you probably could have had all of Setterfield, Walpole, Finn Callahan in the end, the two rookies which were safe in Mackenzie and thing. But I think at time again, you probably wouldn't spend up for anyone priced over 110.
00:11:23
Speaker
just the way the game's going. And then the back line is the way we're all gun shy on, I think if we spoke in November, it was young and day cost show. And then they didn't, there's concerns for different reasons in the pre-season that a lot of coaches went docketty and then cheap. And I still think that was probably the way to go. But I say that now before teams come this week, when there's every chance we could see no chess and no constable, no cow.
00:11:50
Speaker
and we're in some strife, but I still think the cheap backline was the way to go given the strength of the forward line this year.
00:11:58
Speaker
Yeah and we know that it's a long fantasy season and how many times do we see players come out in round one and it's a complete outlier and their scores just don't translate for the rest of the year. So that's why I'm kind of keen to deep dive with you a little bit more on some specific players to try and figure out what's real and figure out what might be a little bit of smoke and mirrors. So let's start in the midfield because I know a lot of coaches, well some coaches have a Kelly to deal with.
00:12:24
Speaker
So talk to me about green first. So green, amazing pre-season game comes out, has a 128. The strong CBAs were there. He got out for marks. He had game-high tackles, even though there weren't many tackles in that game. So is that a pretty easy switch for you, Kelly, down to green? Yeah, feel for the owners for Kelly. He was ticked every box. Never had more than 48% CBAs.
00:12:50
Speaker
since they've been public. And I think he had 68% game time for 68% CBAs. He was going to be that pure inside mid and potentially be that 110 plus answer. And if that happened, all of a sudden we wouldn't be talking as much about these mid prices. We found another top echelon who we think we keep all season. But yeah, Green, I think, yes, I think he is the real deal.
00:13:13
Speaker
He is just an accumulator. He's been that since day dot on low time on ground, low center bounces. That was quite an obvious formula, put them two together to then see that pop. I can get the concern that he is too much inside. He might struggle to get his marks, but I just watched that pre-season game. The way he was kind of just calling for the ball, just for the little handballs and giving it back. I could tell he had a little bit more in him than just your classic.
00:13:42
Speaker
I'm just a hard nosed inside mid. I think he wants to announce himself to be a star of the comp. So what he's going to do from now, I'm not sure if he's going to be a top 10 mid. Actually, I doubt he'll be a top 10 mid, but I think he's certainly going to be enough for this time of the season. And these are the sort of price players where you kind of want to be having in your side.
00:14:05
Speaker
Yeah and that game against the Eagles this week with no Kelly, no Whitfield and no Perryman, you'd think he's going to have every every CBA almost except for when he's off the ground and I don't know maybe there's a little bit of concern that that game against Adelaide in those conditions might have taken them out of taking it out of them a little bit but I think that's a pretty easy switch and I think he comes up against Colton Essendon and some other soft matchup I think after that so
00:14:32
Speaker
Kelly DeGreen, I think, is a very obvious play, but the one that you went in your Super Coach side, who I'm still trying to figure out is real or not, is Setterfield. So talk to me about Setterfield. 71% CBA, second behind Parrish. It sounds like they want him to be that big-bodied inside mid. I'm well aware he's not going to score 1.22 each week. They did have the soft Hawthorne matchup. But, you know, where do you see him going this week? And is it a case of if you don't jump this week, you've pretty much lost the boat, missed the boat, sorry?
00:15:00
Speaker
Potentially. So, Kavya, that Supercoach, you get a lot of points for that first possession. There's a big body mid, like Hewitt last year was a star come fancy land, but Supercoach, he was putting up 120 just because he had first touch from the rut handball to the distributor, which was a Crips or Walsh for Hewitt's instance and for Setterfield, it's going to be a Parrish and Merritt, and you just get easy points.
00:15:28
Speaker
I was more biased to him in Supercoach than I was in Fantasy, but just in terms of that mid price point and watching the three obvious ones around that price being a Sheed, a Supercoach as Hopper and a Setterfield, but just watching Sheed and Hopper in the pre-season, they just looked like players who have missed a lot of footy, whereas Setterfield hasn't missed footy, he hasn't missed a beat, he's still been playing, he just hasn't had the right role and looking at the pre-season, this is where the
00:15:57
Speaker
The preseason numbers, we've seen it enough that it can lie. And if it lies, you kind of just have to say, OK, you're not going to get them all right, whether it was a Tom Phillips in yesteryear or Jordan Clark. But 74% center bounce in the first practice match, then 50% the second practice match that they went out there, one of that big body mid. He is that big body mid. And with fantasy, I know there's a few doubters in terms of CBAs and their impact. But there's no question that increased CBAs brings increased points.
00:16:27
Speaker
I've made the tweet. No one increase their CBAs more from their 2022 average to 2023 round one than him. So that role looks like it's going to be there. What can he do? He's had 45% CBAs in the past for his career best 84, three years ago. He's now 25 more mature, bigger.
00:16:49
Speaker
Federer and 45 is going to be less than what you're going to see him get. So I think at the very worst case, you're going to get an 85 where at that price point, it's not going to be a competition winner, but it's going to be, oh, that's fine. But if you can be a 95, which a lot of players who play that role he plays can do, then I think he's going to be a really good pick for you and you can hold him right up until the buyer generate cash.
00:17:15
Speaker
and score close enough because these footballers are not robots, and we just saw round one that there's every chance a top-end premium is going to put out of 56, 57. They've got the same opportunity if they've got the time on ground and the CBA to get the ball. So if you can find one who's a bit cheaper, who has that role, then you jump on.
00:17:32
Speaker
Yeah, my concerns with Setterfield was that, you know, Merritt and Parrish, they're so top heavy in that side, everything really goes through them. And when you've got two players that you pegged to be, you know, 100 to 110 plus players, and then you've also got a Dylan Scheel in there who traditionally had
00:17:50
Speaker
taking a lot of CBAs as well. There's only so many points to go around, but I think you are right that if you can push that 85 as a minimum, then you're still going to be a decent stepping stone. And if you can push that 90, 95, then it's going to be someone that you can hold through to the buyer. So interesting decision coaches have to make this week on him, Selby.
GWS and Bulldogs key players
00:18:09
Speaker
It's funny that same players in the same team, obviously, that's been getting a lot of buzz at the moment with that market share.
00:18:17
Speaker
The question in the pre-season was, how many of one team can you have? There were two obvious teams who had that issue, and that was the Bulldogs with a Baz, a Bond, and a McRae who all
00:18:29
Speaker
Appear to have great upside with Bont gone. No, sorry with Dunkley gone and their tool forwards and no need for them to play forward and then for GWS and One round of data. It's funny that the Bulldog boys didn't really show that they could all do it But then again, how many times they can get beaten like they did on the weekend I can imagine if they played a Hawthorne you're gonna see all four of them go 115 plus and then
00:18:54
Speaker
If it weren't for Kelly's injury, you might have seen all the Giants boys go big as well. So I think there's a world where they can all score. Dockers was the third team. When you're looking at what's brochure going to do, you'd think you'd do 110 again. What's Sorong going to do? Breaking out. Can he get up to 100?
00:19:14
Speaker
I think Jager, mind you, had a bad round one and not the best pre-season. But if he's fully fit, can he get close to that? And then there's Will Brody. He said it's hard to juggle between your classic growth stages of age, time on ground, center bounces with then OK competition for possessions. Because I know with projections and
00:19:35
Speaker
particularly in the NBA, speaking to some good analysts there, the way they do their projections, they project what they think the total assists are gonna be, and then each player get what they think the team percentage of assists are gonna be, and that's how they then work out what someone's gonna get, and if one player's out, they know what percentage of assists might be shared elsewhere, and they then distribute it there. I don't know, I feel like in footy that, we see it plenty of times where the mids just get the footy, and it's very rare that someone doesn't come to the party.
00:20:06
Speaker
Yeah, no, I would agree with that. Moving forward, I know this was someone you're a little bit hot and cold on in the pre-season, but Warpool ticked every box for you. He did, except for the fact that Hawks were bad. So when I ranked those mid prices, I think I ranked them in the pre-season, set a field because he'd played before, she'd because he's got the inside role.
00:20:32
Speaker
and you know his best 22, he's going to be playing come round 14 and then it was Warple who has the role but you're not sure whether he's going to be one having that role in round one given that Dylan Moore who showed he had great talent inside in the pre-season didn't play at all in the middle
00:20:49
Speaker
And then Josh Ward, who I thought, well, he's going to be a 50% of this year at least, they've got rid of Jager and Mir and Mitchell to get time into Ward. He had 25% in the pre-season, so he's going to bump his up. So what's Warple really going to see?
00:21:04
Speaker
come round one and round one he led the the Hawks for CBA so if that's any indication of what he's going to do in that role I think you have to say treat that as real so he probably now leapfrogs sheet on that that metric because I think he's got the better scoring potential he's cheaper.
00:21:22
Speaker
and now you know it looks like they're going to back him in with that role whether that's a right thing for Hawks and I don't know Josh Ward played great and still only had 20 odd CBAs, Dylan Moore had zero so not sure what Sam Mitchell's thinking I know Xavier made the point well they don't want to win this year is it probably in their interest to get someone who is competitive he's going to look after young kids in the middle he's big-bodied he's strong but he's going to turn over a lot he might be the perfect recipe for
00:21:50
Speaker
getting this next Dustin Martin. Everyone's talking about this number one draft pick. So who knows, but I'm certainly warmer on Whirlpool now.
Finn Callahan's potential
00:21:57
Speaker
And it also helps. He got that decent score built into his price point. So if he does drop back and start getting a couple of seventies, you're still going to make a little bit of cash while the dust settles early season. Yep. Perfect. And the last midfielder I sort of want to touch on around this price bracket is color hand. So what were your thoughts on Finn?
00:22:16
Speaker
Yeah, so Finn, I didn't have in my super coach, largely because those uncontested possessions of wingman, you get even less points than you do in fantasy. Come Fantasyland, similar boat where you look at the wingman in the AFL and they just don't score well, you then look at the wingman for Richmond, being a Cade and McIntosh and a Pickett, like I think, Pickett played a great game on
00:22:41
Speaker
Thursday night, I had a message from a mate saying, gee, that picket's a good player. I looked at him today because I wanted to find out where Short was playing and I kept scrolling. I think picket scored 32 points, but played his role.
00:22:54
Speaker
That makes a lot of sense how well I was watching the game. Anyway, he doesn't score that well for Wingman. And I thought, well Kingsley knew he's coming in as he got the same sort of thought process between these Wingman, where they did say Finn's going to play Wing.
00:23:14
Speaker
seen Wingman in the pass score really well in the pre-season so yes he scored well but it's like okay well that's because it's uncontested footy what's going to be like round one so for me I probably wouldn't have started him unless I somehow had surplus cash to put on instead of a rookie but as I said I was pretty happy with Mackenzie and Ashcroft on field so I probably wouldn't have gone in with Finn whereas looking at it now knowing there's no Kelly
00:23:37
Speaker
for potentially two weeks. There's no Perriman. It's another game under his belt. So, Finn Kellehan played in that intra-club when they didn't play the first practice match. He only played a half. He then played low game time, the official practice match. He's now had a full game under his belt. They'll now have a lot more confidence in him running out of game and doing what he needs to do.
00:24:00
Speaker
I'm now on board with the Finn Callahan as well, which when you go back to retrospective, what would you do if you started the season again structure wise? You probably could have fitted all those names you mentioned in there.
00:24:12
Speaker
And looking really good, but as we all know, we did that in 2021 with that six or seven mid prices and none of them popped. And then you're too busy trying to worry about them early season, you then miss out on the good rookies who are debuting, you then miss out on these competition winners who are a bit more high in price, you're stuck with certain players for a lot longer and it can really derail your season. So there's a reason why you don't go out and pick them all, come round one.
00:24:38
Speaker
But by picking a few, it means you can do this little jump if you like someone a bit more than the other, or whether it's a premium down to one, now you know one's passed the test. Like I say, Walpole did pass the test to get an extra rookie off your field to get one rookie back up to another one of them.
00:24:52
Speaker
Yeah, that's exactly right. And if you do have injuries like some of us coaches do, then you do get stuck with these mid prices. And Finn was definitely good. I know he jumped late. I think he had a 37 point last quarter. And, you know, was that a victim of circumstance with those mids going down, which allowed him to get a little bit more ball on the outside? I'm not too sure. Would you consider trading into him now or do you kind of just have to let him go? I think you can trade into him. You've got that low break even now.
00:25:22
Speaker
It's hard, sorry, I keep talking about this different game, but it's good that I play it so I get a bit of a feel for what I would do, but I'm training into him in Super Coach land, largely because I need to get that cash to get Cherry up to a decent rack. Hence why I'm doing that. Like I'd rather go, someone would be more confident holding for six, seven, eight weeks, which would be a war pull or a set of field, or even a sheet than that.
00:25:46
Speaker
He could realistically if he starts getting some center bounces with no Perriman who did see some time in there before he did his hamstring.
00:25:54
Speaker
there's a chance he gets 40% the next two weeks, maybe three weeks. And I think there's no question out of all these names we mentioned that he's the one who's going to be the star of the competition in the next five years. If you got a chance to jump on one of them in their second season and he gets that opportunity inside, he could end up being a really, really good scorer. So I would, I would jump into him if you need to find that extra cash to do another move elsewhere, but yeah.
00:26:25
Speaker
Yeah, so that's probably a good segue into the next sort of issues because you mentioned you've got him in Super Coach. So, Tristan Cherry, those unlucky owners that took the pun on him, like you said, he was looking absolutely fantastic. High points per minute, soft matchup against the West Coast and then goes down with that ankle. If you have, say, a Stewart and a Kelly, are you pretty keen on having one go down so you can get Cherry all the way up to English?
00:26:52
Speaker
It's tough with the Stewart one because we say go down, we're struggling at the best of times with those lower end defenders. Hence why we have them at the moment because it wasn't many decent, safe mid price-ish defenders. But for me looking at it, I think
00:27:13
Speaker
English pre-season, he ticked the boxes to be the clear number one ruck, being that they've got the tool forward in there, they've got Lobb, even though Lobb's missing this week, but they already looked too tall, I doubt they're going to play sweet, so he's going to play at the solo ruck. He had interrupted back half of last year, but the first half he looked like he's going to
00:27:33
Speaker
Breakout and you look over the years, these best fantasy ruckmen can sometimes score 15-20 points more than the next best, whether it was Cox in his day or Grundy Gorn back in the set and forget days. And people were gunshot and I would have been gunshot. I was gunshot and super coach, starting with English because of that early matchup. So those coaches who did start with the wits, which proved to be a great call,
00:27:56
Speaker
or a Sean Darcy who scored fine, but there's still a few nervousness each week going into that, particularly with how bad Jackson was and how bad Freer were and how they're going to change much up. If you can get up to English, you then know that, well, there's a lot of good coaches up there, highly ranked coaches who probably won't get English for the next 10 weeks because if they've got a wits and a marshal,
00:28:16
Speaker
that's going to be one of their least priorities to move on. So if you can land English and in a world that he does put on 15 points more than the next best, then that could be a good differentiator rather than just going up that cheaper one, saving the cash of a Darcy or a wits. And then it's like, Oh, well, I might as well have done that last week. And I would have, I've just locked in the loss of 60 points or 70 points or whatever the difference was between Sherry and them.
00:28:45
Speaker
OK, so say it's obviously not a perfect world and say you can't find the cash to get all the way up to English. Who would you be more comfortable with going to out of, say, Darcy and Wits as those more cheaper value guys? It's funny, I try to always be very back in your judgment, back in your preseason and all preseason I had Darcy ranked over Wits.
00:29:07
Speaker
But I think it's probably the solo wits, despite his easy matchup. And if we're getting blinded by that, it's not like it's out of the blue. He's put up 90s in the past. I think he was the highest scoring ruck in the last five games of 2020, was it? Or maybe 2019. So he can do it. He's fit. He's tall. That dewy conditions of the Gold Coast, it happened first half of last year as well when there's heaps of stoppages.
00:29:36
Speaker
I'm leaning towards a wits over a Darcy at the moment, but maybe that's my naive docket mind, which I've lost confidence in most of these Freer players.
00:29:47
Speaker
Yeah, I always had him pegged as that sort of mid-90s guy with not too much value and I didn't think he was going to get close enough to say an English or even a Gorn in hindsight and you're not getting too much value but you do have the safety of the solo rock but I could not see him. He had 25 possessions on the weekend. It wasn't just he outs, he was everywhere.
00:30:10
Speaker
I've definitely come around to Witz and those people that took the punt on starting him, that was an absolute fantastic pick. It'll be interesting to see how he goes against Essendon this week, because although Sam Draper and Phillips aren't great rockmen, they seem to be quite restrictive. So it'll be interesting to see if between the two of them, they follow him around the ground for most of the day and they limit those disposals. Yeah, I just saw that before just when we talk.
00:30:35
Speaker
round one ranks and we say it every year. I put it up where you were ranked the year you came second. I was 20 odd thousandth the year I won in 2017. Mati Motrum last year was 17 and a lot of it is because we get this round one with players pop last year. It was a
00:30:53
Speaker
a Lapinski's 1-17 or whatever he got, Matty Rao, all these players, we think, oh, we have to get them, we got them the next week, and then just, they just returned to normal. And those who didn't, kept their structure and kept who they backed in their full pre-season, then got the advantage on those other ones. So there's, you try to not get sucked into those round one scores, but yeah, which was impressive.
00:31:19
Speaker
Yeah, I do just want to sort of deep dive on Darcy
Darcy's performance praise
00:31:22
Speaker
a little bit more. I do have Darcy. I'm a Darcy owner and I was actually quite impressed by what he did on the weekend. He seemed like he was back to his sort of aggressive best around the contest. He really bullied Roland Marshall. He was very dominant in the hit outs.
00:31:37
Speaker
He was probably a little bit unlucky around the ground as well. He worked pretty hard to get into space, but with the way Freya were just chipping that ball around the back line and then just putting it on his head, every time he was going for a mark, he was pretty much going up against five or six players in a contested situation. So hopefully that won't happen every week and Freya can, you know, have a bit better ball movement and get it to him a little bit quicker. But, you know, if you had to put a number to it at the moment, can you see Darcy going sort of somewhere between 95 and 100 and being a decent stock up?
00:32:06
Speaker
Yeah, and I think if there's no such thing as Luke Jackson waiting in the wings, you'd potentially say more than that.
00:32:15
Speaker
He's younger than Tim English, which always shocks me every time I see that, but he's never had a full preseason. He's always interrupted the practice matches round one, round two, then he gets going. Whereas this preseason is widely documented. His tassel, particularly over in WA, the tassel he was having with Jackson, they were really competitive. They were getting the best out of each other. You saw a vision of
00:32:38
Speaker
of Darcy doing stuff like taking two bounces down the wing and kicking a goal from 50. Like he's, I think he's learned a little bit from Jackson and vice versa. So he's certainly rock hard fit and you're right. He spread really well, took some good marks like around that center forward, like that dangerous region. We're not, no one else from Freer, we're marking around there.
00:32:57
Speaker
It's just that my only concern is that Jackson, like this big asset, million dollars a year, whatever he's getting, like they're going to have to inject him into it at some point. And I don't think it's a deep forward. So whether it's a bit more of this inside mid, which he did do a little bit on the weekend. But yeah, we all were trying to predict Darcy's center bounces, particularly because it was hard with Jackson not playing the first game.
00:33:23
Speaker
I think the practice match that is when Darcy had 88%, but he went and had 85% in the real stuff. So whether that stays, I always thought he's going to be more the 75, which is still going to be enough for him to be a 95, which is still a fine pick. But if he can keep this 85%, then he definitely can be 100%. And yeah, at that lower price point, still priced a bit less than 100, a bit less than 90, sorry, he'll prove a great pick.
00:33:50
Speaker
Yep, perfect. Alright, let's move on to defence. A bit selfish for me because I am a Tom Stewart owner, so I'm tussling on whether I go up or down
James Sicily and match-up concerns
00:33:59
Speaker
from here. Not too far down obviously, but so in terms of going up, so we've got a Sicily. What were your thoughts on Sicily on the weekend? Obviously had that monster score. Won't come up against Essendon every week, but how did you see his game?
00:34:14
Speaker
Didn't watch much of this game, I've got to say. I think we're speaking just before. I try to make a point last year to watch every game and every part of every game, particularly because I've...
00:34:24
Speaker
I've got paying members asking my opinion on players. I kind of feel like I should be watching them, but this year I'm trying to not get as consumed in it. I feel especially with where I'm at in my life, second kid on the way and stuff, I don't want to get in the habit of feeling like I have to watch all of these games. I do try to watch at least a quarter of them and I watch just flashes of it. And every time I did see it was Cicely was on the screen. He did what you kind of want.
00:34:50
Speaker
What a docket essentially does, which is just wraps around for those ones at the back and then free for the marks. The concern is his kick ins were low. I know they were high last year, 10%. They are going to share the load, but.
00:35:03
Speaker
He's a leader back there. The ball's going to be there back there a lot. Can he bump himself up to that 1-10 and be around those, the D couple? I think I marked him at the start of the year, not even to be a top six defender. So I'm probably going to stick with that and believe he's going to do a few more match ups that he, I don't know what I have in D7 at the start of the season.
00:35:25
Speaker
Four. It's a tough one. If things were played on his terms, there's no question he could be outscoring Docherty. It's just, I think, with Sam Mitchell with development, with giving opportunity to other players, with him being a very good defender and quite often taking it dangerous forward. There are risks with the Sicily, but you've got to take risks in this game to hope for that upside to try to get the differentiator. That probably didn't answer your question.
00:35:50
Speaker
But for me, I wouldn't I don't think I could have it this this week I'd be more around that point which I was looking at in the preseason, which is a day cos or a young Yeah, so that was gonna be my next question it's pretty much sideways now I think it's gonna cost me maybe 10k to go up from Stewart to day cos and 20k to go up to young which hurts a little bit off that injury, but Obviously day cos very very impressive on the weekend. I just
00:36:19
Speaker
I just don't think clubs are gonna let him have 35 possessions every week. I think, you know, first game of the year that Friday night, Collingwood so convincingly beat the reigning premiers in the end, and Daikos was a massive part of that. Coming up against Port this week, I think, you know, surely they're gonna put some time into him and then they have some tough match-ups coming in. I think Daikos is someone that we're gonna need at some stage in the season, but would you be going him this week knowing that he's got that tough matchup? It's a tricky one because
Nick Daicos' fantasy role
00:36:48
Speaker
It's funny the way the fantasy game works. We all got put off when he got tagged by a few beginners in the pre-season. Now we're all attracted by that big score, but really see it should have been opposite and started him at that price point. So he had the 35 and only, not only, but 114 fantasy.
00:37:08
Speaker
makes you think well what's going to happen if he does get 25 which is still a pretty good game as that half back. He runs so hard and demands so much the ball. There's a bit of commentary on socials about him being not effective and cheap possessions and whatnot but for the way they play and when you watch them with their chains they normally start off pretty slow whether it's a Darcy Moore
00:37:29
Speaker
back then they do a couple of little chips then once they try to get the ball in his hand he's the one who pulls that trigger to then go inside and then they just play their classic Collingwood run and gun like he's so integral for what they try to do and set up so you think
00:37:44
Speaker
that he would be the one you'd sit on and the fact that Hawthorne likely wouldn't spoon has pressed a potential or last year's one goal outside of ground final team will be in the preseason but by tagging Daikos you'd think that blueprint would have been there then. I know Chris Scott can get a bit stubborn but it's easy for us to say stubborn he won the flag last year and
00:38:07
Speaker
showed he was the best coach in the game. So you'd think teams would tag him, but let's just say not everyone tags. He's got 21 games to go in the season, no 22 with the extra game this year. He might get tagged six, seven times to a
00:38:24
Speaker
to a 70. He still runs so hard. Geelong didn't really kick many points, so he's going to get more easy possessions there if he takes the kick-ins. And then when he gets off the leash, the way he was demanding that ball and running around, it's hard to see him, if he doesn't get tagged, not getting 35 possessions. So what would that all spit out with if he gets himself 15 games of 110 and
00:38:48
Speaker
and seven games of the of the 70 he's still probably going to be a top six and his price below that top six now so i still think he'd be an okay get but you're right every all eyes was on was on that game the friday night kenny he has already said that he's going to look to put some time into him that it's a nervous pick so you know that nervous pick and i know the next question is going to be about hayden young who's not never going to get the tag or at least in the next couple of weeks but
00:39:16
Speaker
his game's more about system. The Dockers have to shake something up. They can't be doing what they did. Round one. But realistically, if they do want the ball in one of their hands, it's not Cox. I know Ryan's a very good kick. They probably still want the ball in Hayden Young's hands to do a bit more of a day cost in the middle kick. So I can't see him losing out a heap, even if they do speed things up a little bit.
Hayden Young's stability
00:39:39
Speaker
So Young's the safer play, no question about that, particularly me, who I like to sleep easy with my fancy team, not scared of tags.
00:39:47
Speaker
It's young over day cost, but if you're a risk, if you like your risk, if you want to go for that big one, it's day cost. But me personally, right now, it's eight and young.
00:39:57
Speaker
Yeah, he's definitely one of the ones I'm considering from Stuart as well, obviously not having to pay too much there and that fits that model of trying to hunt value and trying to pick these players that are the top six that are coming in underpriced. The one thing that kind of worries me is that's something I looked to do last year and the obvious picks were the Dokkides, the Dorsens and the Sinclair's that were just so far and away the best defenders and they just kept putting up 15 points a week for fun on everyone else.
00:40:27
Speaker
That is in the back of my mind with a Sicily type that if it is his year and the ball is just living in that Hawthorn D-50, then maybe he can go 100-105 in that role and he's putting up 10 points a week more than a Hayden Young, but Young is someone I'm definitely considering. I do worry though, so just for a bit of perspective, Frio put up a team total of 1,800 fantasy points last year and that was 220 points up from their average last year and they already had a pretty high averages
00:40:55
Speaker
as it was and we know that they got beaten pretty badly by a St Kilda side that was missing eight of their best 22 players so clearly something's going to have to change there but I think you're right, Young is just so integral to that system and he's probably the safer pick there while I try and figure out what the hell to do with everything else in my team.
Ed Richards' potential
00:41:13
Speaker
Thinking about going down a little bit more not too far, what did you think of Ed Richards on the weekend? He was great, Ed Richards for a team
00:41:22
Speaker
where they all looked out of sorts. No one, even English who scored well, didn't look like he had a heap of energy bond, was kind of floating a little bit, particularly in the second half. Macrae kind of has done what Macrae has done in the last couple of years, which has looked pretty slow and uninspiring. The one who actually did look like he was full of beans was Ed Richards, who
00:41:44
Speaker
I think it was on the radar when it sounded like Caleb Daniel was going to move inside and it meant he could be the number two to Bailey Dale. But when Daniel's now still playing backline, as I believe he played backline on the weekend, it is risky having someone who could still be that third. Like Bailey Dale had that quiet game. I don't think you get that from Dale.
00:42:08
Speaker
All along, but no, he impressed me. He went up in my opinion of him as a player and potentially up as a fancy player, particularly with this matchup now, which Freo had on the weekend against the Saints. There might be some easy ball there. Again, as we say, he could be the knockout pick if he ends up continuing to do what he does and presses these top six.
00:42:32
Speaker
It's that balance and me and you are the same. We like finding that value, but for someone who you know can be a top six. So like last year, yes, they were mid prices, but Sicily, Hewitt, Will Brodie, they all end up being in your team all year. So there's a difference between that and then hunting the value who is someone who you're still losing out points in.
00:42:54
Speaker
And I think that if Sisley is the real deal, if Nick Dacos doesn't get the tag and if Hayden Young continues his trajectory, then they could all be up there in the top six and they're going to outperform what they're at. And there's a lot more safer play with those than the Ed Richards type.
00:43:12
Speaker
Yeah, Ed Richards has that fantastic matchup against St Kilda this week, but then he has a pretty tough run coming up after that, I believe. I don't have it off the top of my head, but knowing I've been researching it pretty hard, he's got a real tough matchup after that. So as that third defender, I think you're right, he's going to have good games, but he's probably going to have some floor games as well,
Will Day's scoring sustainability
00:43:31
Speaker
which means he's not going to put up numbers in the top six.
00:43:34
Speaker
The other one, Will Day, who I wasn't as big on, comes out with a 98 on the weekend. Looked pretty good, but was purely outside. I know he got 26% CBAs, but majority of his touches from what I saw were getting some pretty cheap bull on the outside.
00:43:50
Speaker
We're playing fantasy here, but from Supercoach's point of view, he had a 68, which shows that he was getting a lot of cheap ball on the outside. So, what are your thoughts on Will Day? Is it sustainable scoring from only 26% CBAs, knowing that, you know, wards should increase and with the chance of experimentation in that Hawks midfield?
00:44:07
Speaker
I've heard you say this before, so we keep apologizing and talking Supercoach, but I've heard you say that you look at the Supercoach score as well, just to get a better idea of their impact and how important they were to the team. The obvious one was Constable on the weekend where I think at one point he was on like 48 fantasy and 12 Supercoach because of all his clangers and turnovers. Will Day, the same thing, it summed up. He's not one who's going to butcher it as more, just he had that outside possession and uncontested touches.
00:44:38
Speaker
There's enough noise coming out of Hawthorn that a bit like the Warple one where I thought it was all experimenting to start the season from start of the pre-season when they said he's gonna play midfield, we thought, well, that's obviously gonna be wing. Then they said, nah, he's gonna play inside mid and pre-season first practice match, 50% center bounces, second practice match, 50% center bounces. So I was like, okay, well, this is real now. We've got the intraclub they played before then, he was inside mid.
00:45:05
Speaker
That role is probably going to be there. I was surprised to see that he only had 26. As I mentioned, he's the player I want to actually see a bit of. So I probably will go back and watch a bit of that game to see how he looked to the eye. Because to the eye in the pre-season, we didn't score great. I thought he did look pretty good in there. He looked awkward in position and size.
00:45:26
Speaker
physique for an insider, maybe he did a few pretty nice things. So I was actually shocked to see the 26% center bounces, but you can't complain about that score. And now that's built into his next five price rises. So he's at least going to make you a little bit of cash while things settle. And that back line, he's not going to get dropped. Like that back line, I mentioned at the start that there's every chance we won't see a cow and we won't see a constable in the next couple of weeks if power and
00:45:53
Speaker
and well I come back. You might not see a chesser, but at least here you are saving money and you've got someone who's not going to get dropped and be given every opportunity. But yeah, hard to comment on him without watching him to the eye.
00:46:07
Speaker
Yeah and the one thing that does worry me a little bit is they come up against Sydney this week at the SCG so there's not going to be as much outside ball on a smaller ground anyway but I doubt Sydney are just going to let the Hawthorn players do what they want. They run a pretty tight defensive system so if you didn't start him and you trade into him this week you might just have to wear a sub pass score this week but knowing that he's still got some potential down the line
00:46:30
Speaker
All right, Selves, I've had you for about 45 minutes, so I appreciate it. We'll just do some of these questions from the Discord. So we'll go for about 15 minutes and then we'll wrap up. This question here, I'm kind of interested in as well, depending on how much carnage we get.
Injured premiums vs must-have rookies
00:46:44
Speaker
But is there a world where you might have to hold a Kelly in order to get, you know, the must have rooks or if you've got other issues that you need to fix up?
00:46:54
Speaker
I've always been one to trade the premiums, even injure premiums, even in upgrade season. So during upgrade season, which say it's round four to round 14.
00:47:06
Speaker
There's a world where you can hold your premium because if you make an upgrade with the other trades, then when they return from the injury, you've got one extra premium than you would if you just sideways traded. Whereas right now, if you hold your premium, you have one less premium this week and then the next week they might return, but you're not going to get that extra premium. You're just going to lose those initial points.
00:47:28
Speaker
So if you've got all your rookies sorted, because that's obviously what you want to do with these early trades, we go through that with the trade insights about the past winners, what they've been doing in these early rounds. And a key one is making sure you get those rookies. If you miss the season, which I know people did, and you probably do feel silly if you did miss him, but realistically, it was a small forward playing.
00:47:49
Speaker
for one of the bottom teams, you could think that he wasn't going to score well. It was just that teasing of half-back flank Roy played in the Cup of Games of the Priestess, which got me on the line at least, because I've experimented not having him in there. And then he spent full time there, and look, they cost 2.0. So if you missed him, you have to get him. And if it means holding Kelly to do that, definitely. Chandler, I think he's good enough to hold. Jepa was very bullish on him.
00:48:18
Speaker
I haven't seen enough of him, but he did look good on the weekend, but everyone in Melbourne did look good. They're losing picket for a bit. They're getting a few back, but it's hard to see him not staying in that team. And with that big score in his rolling average, he's going to make the cash. If named, you're probably going to have to say he's a must have. Jinby, I know everyone has got. So no point even speaking about him. But yeah, there is a world where you can hold those injured if you missed any of those rookies and that's the way to get them. Or is it a matter of
00:48:48
Speaker
getting a rookie and then still moving one of those injured players. I know you've got two, so say you've got Kelly and Stewart. Yeah, yeah, I've got Chandler. Lucky, one of the good things I did. Well, what if you didn't have Chandler then? What would you do? Well, knowing that
00:49:11
Speaker
It's an interesting one, right? Because they've got four players coming back this week, I think, from the sounds of it. Salem might come back through the twos. And it's probably a blessing in disguise, really, that Cosi Pickett's gone out for two weeks. So that probably gives Chandler a guaranteed another two weeks. And it's his spot to lose. And if you don't go him, and he makes 100, 150K very quickly in the next three weeks, then you are definitely behind the competition.
00:49:36
Speaker
If I didn't have Chandler and I still had those two injuries I probably would err on holding Kelly and getting Chandler and fixing Stuart I think it's more important that you get Chandler and Kelly look to be absolutely unbelievable. He's probably going to go close to being a top eight mid and if you do hold him then you're right you are keeping that premium and then he's going to be pretty unique for you for the rest of the season. Do you agree with that?
00:50:01
Speaker
Yeah, I do. You're right. Unique is going to be 115. And with this rolling lockout, like whether you've got a Hollands there, like you have two looks at that M8 position with a loophole. So if you can get yourself a 70, then you cop that because what? So you trade in for a premium and might have got 100. You lose. You might gain 30 points, but you're giving up that potential to make that 100K. So the rookies are the more important thing at the moment. So you're right. You'd be
00:50:31
Speaker
You've got that long side of generating that cash rather than those early points. We always talked, and that's why we're both marvelled by the marvels last year, Motrums, that he managed to hit the front so early.
Long-term fantasy strategy benefits
00:50:45
Speaker
Myself and you typically hit the lead during the buys or post-buys, and that's when we start peaking. We're still around those 5,000, 2,000, 1,000 mark in around five, six, and seven.
00:50:58
Speaker
I like to play the long game and extra round this year as well, probably means points on fields worth a little bit less and cash generations worth more.
00:51:08
Speaker
Yeah, and you've actually just refreshed my memory of something I wanted to ask you. So one of the awkward things this week, especially for Stewart owners, is that they play the Thursday night. So you don't really have a chance to have a look at of how your rookies are going to go to see whether you can potentially hold him or not. But I spoke to Warnie today and they mentioned this in the preseason, but it's gone kind of quiet. But apparently this is the case. So in Super Coach, they've got the alter trade button, right? So
00:51:35
Speaker
Hypothetically, I could trade Stuart to say someone who's playing on a Sunday or a Saturday night, say a young, and that's not locked, right? So the Stuart side's locked, but I can still then alter that trade young down to anyone I want or up if I've got the cash in the bank. That's how it works in Supercoach, right?
00:51:54
Speaker
Yeah.
Trade flexibility exploration
00:51:55
Speaker
Yeah. And obviously I'm a, I'm a fancy man at heart. There's no question. And there's a lot about the platform, which I prefer and the rules and the rewarding, the early mover of pricing changes and stuff. I could super coach. I didn't start channel, but I know I'm getting next week for the same price, making sure he's playing that third game to go up. So there's a lot of things I love in, in super coach, they've got some really good features of one of them is that that.
00:52:18
Speaker
you can trade who you're trading out and you're trading in at any stage until they play so you can trade out Stuart for whoever it is, Daikos and then say you get a good score it's tough on Thursday night sorry but say if you had got a good score from you
00:52:37
Speaker
From your bench play, you could have then swapped that and done another trade. But I believe that in fantasy, you can do that as well. Warnie did tweet saying that you could edit your trade. So you're right. They have gone quite on that, whether that's still working or not. But that does make it tricky for you. Seward owners are going to have to pull the trigger before even knowing final teams on the weekend games.
00:53:04
Speaker
Yeah, so you can't just turn it around and not trade steward anymore, so the steward part's locked, but you can go to any other player as long as it fits in your salary cap, right?
00:53:14
Speaker
Yeah, perfect. So that's something that at least steward owners can, you know, try and use to their advantage. Hopefully the AFL fantasy platform has it all up and running and maybe it's going to take a brave coach to trust that the platform works the way it should in round two. But I think that's probably the way to play it is, yeah, lock that one trade in knowing that you can potentially alter that later on down the track if you need to. So that's something to think of there.
00:53:40
Speaker
Sticking with the defence, so I know a lot of us got stung on the weekend playing a rookie at D6, so Cowe and Chesa, even Wilmot to a certain point of view, all didn't really perform. Are coaches really needing to try and scramble to get a mid-price player there so that they're not getting one of those scores at D6, or is there anyone that you would actually be quite comfortable with sitting at D6 in the
Rookie defenders' reliability
00:54:03
Speaker
short term?
00:54:03
Speaker
not really and I had this issue and that's why I went the cherry so I didn't have to play one of these mid price defenders once Yo went down and I even threw a few names at you and you laughed which I answered the question for me when I was looking for replacements. A lot of teams are in the same boat. I am big on trying to limit my rookies on field when I say rookies are genuine first year players so
00:54:30
Speaker
Wilmot potentially a bit better because he has played those games in the finals but his scoring is a little bit capped. Chess, I'm not sure. It might get your hand forced for you. I doubt we're going to get all of them named and if it means that you can play a bit of a loop and have a look at Cowan if he is named or have a look at Wilmot who plays the next game then that's definitely the way to play it because
00:54:55
Speaker
We say rookie rule, it's in the backline this year that they're all very low and you could certainly get an edge. In my super coach, it's a bit easier because you've got your Conor McKenna essentially at rookie price where I didn't have to play any first year players. I think my D6, who was my D6? My D6 was constable.
00:55:18
Speaker
It's easy for me to say I'll get that rookie off the field in defence, you'll make your team better, but you're looking fancy, who are you looking at? What are those names? Hunter Clark didn't show anything.
Mid-price defenders' challenges
00:55:29
Speaker
What's his name? Ben Long didn't show anything.
00:55:33
Speaker
It's hard, that price point, there's no one really there. If Yo comes back this week, that's a question mark. Like, do you jump on that knowing what we know about calves and how they're so reoccurring? Think about Harley Bunnell back in the day, Xavier Ellis himself. But maybe he was the, for me, he was the first picked three weeks ago. So if he is named, maybe that's the answer.
00:56:02
Speaker
Yeah, so I know you've been pretty close with the yos over the years, being East from Animal Boy as well. Is he someone that you would rule out knowing what you know about his body? Or, you know, for someone like me that is coming from a long way back, you know, really doesn't have anything to lose other than to have a go. Is it a play to have a crack at yo when he comes back in? He'll definitely be unique.
00:56:24
Speaker
Yeah, I think the last person you mentioned that about was Aaron Hall in round 16 or whatever last year and it's hard, like it's like four me once, but on the flip side, you do have to find discounts somewhere and risks somewhere to differentiate and whether that was Cicely on the back of his ACL last year having a crack at him or was it having a crack at Matt Crouch on the back of this OP 30% discount and he backfired. So you're not going to get them all right, but if you are on the right one, that's a ticket to success and
00:56:52
Speaker
I think we're all aware how hard this game is at the moment. It's been harder than ever. You always say top 1,000. It's harder to get even top 10,000. And you'll see it this year, particularly with teams more and more similar. That you could take the punt. That might mean you finish 15, 20,000. But if it pays off, you could be that one step ahead. Because if Yoi does play, scores 100, just watch everyone jump to him the week after. Then you can then find the next one and the next one. But as I said,
Strategic risks in selections
00:57:20
Speaker
There's risks attached and this is coming from the man who advocated the cherry move at R2 and they're all scrambling with me this week.
00:57:30
Speaker
Yeah, you definitely have to take a risk when you are sitting back. There's no point playing safe and finishing 20k, you may as well take a punt and try and rise. So to be honest, mate, with how I'm looking at the moment, I don't think he'll get up this week, but if he comes back for the derby in round three and I'm still trying to fix up my D3 or I need to find a little bit of cash to fix that, I think he'll be someone that I'll look at. Might be a little bit crazy, but who knows, might just help propel me back up.
00:57:58
Speaker
So if someone like me went a week back line, so they've got Constable at D3, would you advocate training a she'd to a will day with a bit of DPP to strengthen the back line a little bit? Yes, because I was advocating a week back line. I think I was even a yo D2 and then when he was out, it's like, well, what do you do there? I think we just hope that Constable, so it sounds like we're going to get the return of power and weller this week.
00:58:27
Speaker
I think you just pray and wait till round six where we'll be able to at least get Sheezle back there. You can start making some upgrades by then, Yo's playing, you can get him in there and we can slowly strengthen that backline, one more so for job security before even scoring. Sheed to Will Day, I think you'll see, I think if you ask me that she, I think she's gonna outscore Will Day from now to the end of the year.
00:58:55
Speaker
So unless it helps you sleep better at night with a stronger defense, I think these mid prices you can give them it. Another look but my issue is I give them potentially too much of a look and I know that you made your big move jumping off a Will Phillip, not Will Phillips, Tom Phillips early before anyone else you jumped off a Matt Rau.
00:59:16
Speaker
Even Matt Mottram jumped off a matrail last year before anyone else. So if you have identified something in Sheed, knowing that a big chunk of coaches have him, then it could pay in your favour. But I'm still thinking Sheed will get better with the run. Yeah, yeah, I couldn't agree more there. Would you consider going Sheed down to Callahan for a bit of cash if it meant that you could get Fergus Green up to Chandler that you've missed?
00:59:44
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. Definitely. We mentioned the importance of that cash, Jen. If it weren't for a Perryman and a Kelly out, I'd probably say no, because there's a chance that a wing fin, a wingman fin could score a 50 and you're losing points, you're stuck down that cash growth. But I think we're going to see some inside fin and it could be a decent pick.
01:00:14
Speaker
Yep. All right. Last one just because I just want you to help this bloke out because he has had a shocking run. So he has Stewart, Cherry and Kelly to fix. So what would you be looking to do here? I know you said that going down from Stewart's not really an option. So he's got to find cash somewhere. So what are you looking to do here if you can?
01:00:35
Speaker
Yeah okay, so I think you've got to hold Kelly in that instance and hopefully get a look at one of those rooks. The ones you're trading are Kelly and Stuart, that's the obvious one.
01:00:47
Speaker
And then just do those mass in your head. So who can you get down to? So say if it is an Ed Richards, how much does that make you? And what run? Yeah, you're not going to be able to trade Kelly and Stuart, though, if you've got Cherry at R2. You're going to have to fix that R2 because you won't have anyone to play there. So you've got to pick two out of the three.
Trade decisions for injured players
01:01:04
Speaker
Yeah, sorry. You hold Kelly. You trade Cherry and Stuart. So say you traded Stuart to an Ed.
01:01:13
Speaker
What can that get you up to? I know that Lysset was appealing at the start of the season and he had that, the knock on him was that poor matchup, round one. That's now out of the way versus Oscar to give him a look, knowing he's unique and he was pretty popular in the pre-season. I don't love it. As I said, I'd love to go up. I don't know what I'd do if I was that poor coach, to be honest with you. I don't know what I'd do.
01:01:59
Speaker
Um, might get you a Darcy Cameron. Um, you know, you could look at Latins, I suppose. But yeah, it's interesting. It's how much money he's got in the bank. Do you go even further down to Will Day? That might get you enough cash to get up to a Darcy. Maybe that's where I'd look. I'd probably look to hold Kelly.
01:02:04
Speaker
I don't know what I'd do.
01:02:16
Speaker
knowing that you've got a top eight mid sitting there to come back onto your field and you just pray that it's just a one-week concussion and not two. I think that 12-day protocol is right on the edge of their second game, so that could be a disaster if he misses two. But yeah, I think you're probably going to have to eat your poison there and go steward down to will day and get cherry up to a Darcy. I'm not sure I'd have the balls to go a Latims or a Lysette. I think you're just asking for trouble again and that's when we burn all those trades in the rock.
01:02:43
Speaker
Yeah, you're right. Day and a top one. I don't mind Cameron. As I said, we liked him in the pre-season. We were concerned it's going to be a 50-50 split, which it was in the pre-season, but he seemed to take over that game. They all talked about Pendles Dagoi and Tom Mitchell's clearance work, but a lot of it was the tap work of
01:03:04
Speaker
Darcy Cameron. So he impressed me. But yeah, get the safe one who you think could be happy to hold all season, which would be a das if you can and will date you're riding that cash rise. And as you mentioned before, Kelly's going to be unique in two weeks and there's no reason why he can't do 110.
01:03:23
Speaker
Yeah, beautiful. All right, Selves, mate, thank you for jumping on. I really appreciate you giving us your time.
Moreira's Magic offerings
01:03:29
Speaker
I know you're very busy with everything you do. If you could just let everyone know where they can find your Moreira's Magic platform and maybe just a little bit more of what they can expect for the rest of the year.
01:03:40
Speaker
Yeah, so it's mararismagic.com.au, M-O-R-E-I-R-A, magic.com.au. So the way the membership works, you know, they join weekly for $2.95 a week for the fantasy.
01:03:55
Speaker
join or can see in times and give it a crack for a week and then jump off. But essentially we have a round review podcast on the Monday or Tuesday morning. We'll do a trade insights email article every Thursday morning, a quickfire Q&A on the Friday morning podcast. And then there's some stats and tools, a buyer planner price project and a few things there. So there's a
01:04:18
Speaker
a fair bit which goes into it, or you can pay up front. Nothing ends up being a bit less than $2.50 a week for the season, $10 a month. So jump on board if you want. But as I said, when I first started, there was a real want for that in-depth analysis. Now there's so much great analysis out there that by no means feel pressure to jump in, but we have a bit of fun. We try to keep it lighthearted.
01:04:43
Speaker
Because obviously fans, we always say like the weekend just gone. We want to keep it as entertaining as possible. That's where Zave comes in. And if you feel bad about your team, it's worth paying the $2.95 just to hear that he started his season with a Locky Ash, a... Who else did he chuck in there? We had a cherry. Did he go baker in the end? Baker, the candlestick maker? Candlestick baker was in there. It's a shocker. The man who sits next to me, there's now been three years we've sit there and show you the fact that he's talking about trades. He's like, oh, what about Adam Treloar?
01:05:14
Speaker
Still probably outscored me this week, I think. I haven't listened yet, but I'm sure he did, so. Oh, because then he had a log story, but he had Cheri. He had Cheri. I called him up after the first 10 minutes, and I said, mate, you've seen this bloke. He's monitoring you. We're on one ear. And he goes, mate, you won't believe it. I had Taranto, Vice Captain, as Lupo, moved Cheri to the bench and forgot to put the emergency on him.
01:05:42
Speaker
So he had, so he was like spewing. Then I call him up five minutes later when Sherry's out. I said, mate, he's gone. He's got, and he's there cheering. So now I'm not going to be an idiot. This is out this course, but you're playing for 20,000. I'm over here doing my best trying to win supercoach and you're, you're doing cartwheels because the man who you didn't have an emergency on.
01:06:03
Speaker
end up getting injured. So then it meant that he, because he was emerging, he could then trade his R2. So he traded him for Flynn, who I think was on 35 points halfway through the first and finished with 50. So now I dare say he's, he's in a worse spot than he is. He no need to worry about Zave.
01:06:21
Speaker
That's really funny. I'm in a group chat with some of these other boys that are very serious players, and they did the exact same thing. They had Cherry on the bench as their loophole, so they actually had the emergency on him, but once that's happened, they've gone to Flynn as well, so they'll be happy to know that they've done the exact same thing as Zave, and I'm sure they'll be very happy about that. I'm not sure it's a good thing or a bad thing to do the same as Zave. No, he's great, to be honest with you. He's great for me. He teaches me a lot.
01:06:45
Speaker
He has a really good eye for footy. He comes in with a, we talk about looking at the Super Coach scores, he comes in like we're talking about Hayden Young or Dacos saying what he thinks would happen on a footy level. And then you read into that what you will, what the implications that will have with fantasy. So we have a good little relationship going and have some fun there. So yeah, feel free to come check us out, but yeah, that's it.
01:07:09
Speaker
Alright mate, thanks for that and good luck with the Supercoach season. I'm sure we'll see you up there at the pointy end. Cheers OMG, good luck too.