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LINE BY LINE DEEP DIVE feat. Fantasy Nut (Vams) | The Holmes Files Ep. 4
4.8k Plays10 months ago
Two-time top 10 AFL Fantasy finisher and 2021 Runner-Up Kyle "Holmesy" Holmes continues his one-on-one interview series with members of the AFL Fantasy community.
In this episode, Vams (AKA Fantasy Nut) jumps on the show to delve deep into his thoughts on every position and some of the hottest topics from each line.
Vams has been an active member of AFL Fantasy X (formerly Twitter) community and featured on several podcasts already this pre-season, sharing his thoughts on the 2024 AFL Fantasy season. As his X handle suggests, Vams is a certified Fantasy Nut, having completed a mountain of research for his team to go "car or bust"!
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Transcript
Introduction to The Holmes Files and Guest
00:00:17
Speaker
G'day, and welcome to the PodPod. It's Holmesy here, back for another edition of The Holmes Files. In this series, we are interviewing, or I'm interviewing some of the brighter minds in the fantasy community and deep diving on strategy and providing something a little bit different. And today, I've got another special guest on. I was hoping to get him on a little bit earlier to get his insights pretty fresh, but unfortunately, he has been on, you know, about six podcasts in the last two weeks.
00:00:44
Speaker
So you've probably heard him floating around on the coaches panel or on hat chat recently, but I've got Vams known as fantasy nut from Twitter.
Preseason Strategy and Player Selection
00:00:53
Speaker
Vams, how are you, mate? Yeah, good, mate. Thanks for having me on. Big fan of Pod Pod, big fan of this series that you do. So yeah, really happy to have a chat with you.
00:01:02
Speaker
Yeah, the reason I wanted to get you on is you haven't been afraid on Twitter or X at least to prevent, sorry, to propose opinions that are slightly different to the norm and that's fantastic because we do kind of get stuck in this group think a lot of the time and we don't really look at potentially some other options that we might or think about these players differently. So I'm definitely keen to deep dive with you.
00:01:25
Speaker
I thought what we would do is basically go line by line. But before we do that, why don't you just let us know, you know, where you've been focusing this preseason. And maybe I know you had your Learnings podcast with the Coaches Panel a couple of weeks ago now, which was a really good listen. But what have what are you trying to apply to this preseason that you sort of have taken from all of your learnings last season?
00:01:49
Speaker
Yeah, I think the way I'm sort of applying those learnings, I won't go over them sort of now people
Defense Strategy Adjustments and Key Players
00:01:54
Speaker
can listen to that podcast itself. But I guess what I'm the way I'm really approaching things is by putting together a document, a spreadsheet, whatever you want to call it.
00:02:04
Speaker
And on there have all the players that I've kind of shortlisted as good options in each line across all the different sort of price points. And in there will be a certain name, what they're currently priced at. And then I try to be relatively specific in terms of what I think they can average both to the upside and the downside.
00:02:22
Speaker
And then, essentially, I then like to put together a whole series of mock teams with a whole bunch of different combinations of players. And I probably got on this spreadsheet.
00:02:35
Speaker
hundreds of different mock teams really. No joking like you know slowly they'll get deleted etc and then you'll have your favorites etc but I really like to focus on trying to come up with what I think is the optimal sort of combination of players and and really what I find that helps at least with me is that it helps me find what I think is going to be the the structure that I think gives my team
00:02:56
Speaker
sort of the most upside and because obviously you're putting all these players in in there will be their projected or my projected average for each of these players it will then for that particular team spit out that team total for that for that team total score and then you can compare that say starting um two cheap rucks versus team english and roll marshall in your rock line and again
00:03:18
Speaker
you can then sort of you can compare all the different scores amongst all these mock teams and then pick the one you like and then over the preseason obviously players will swap in and out etc but yeah that's probably how I'm spending most of my time that and obviously just following all the preseason news like everyone else at the moment
00:03:36
Speaker
Yeah, so that's interesting that you've got this spreadsheet that's essentially helping you find the optimal structure, let's call it. And then from there, you're able to kind of put the players in or select the players that you like. So that's going to be some good, good knowledge going into talking line by line. So let's start with the defense. How are you looking to sort of structure up the defense at the moment before we go into some specific players?
00:03:59
Speaker
Yeah, like most people, I probably had a pretty vanilla defense up until maybe a week or two ago. Probably the Chapman injury is the one that made me change things up a little bit. I had, you know, Tom Stewart at sort of D1 and then Hayden Young at D2, Elite Yo at D3, Chapman at D4, Zach was at D5 and then Coffield at D6. And the Chapman injury kind of threw me for a loop because
00:04:23
Speaker
You know, it was probably similar to Yo last year where it was like a relatively key guy at a pretty awkward price point where it wasn't that easy just to replace them with someone else. And when they kind of get injured, you're like, like, shit, I've got to either restructure here or find someone else at that price point that I really like.
00:04:40
Speaker
And at that time, there probably wasn't someone in that price point that I really liked. And, you know, there may be one or two options now that we, you know, that, that might be emerging someone like a Buddha Rick, for instance. But, but at least when, you know, when that injury happened, I kind of just scrap my, my
00:04:56
Speaker
my, my sort of defense and sort of started again. And I find that that's a pretty useful thing to do because I don't know, like maybe I'm speaking for myself here, but yeah, we can often or I can often sort of put someone in at a position thinking that there are a lock early in the process and then never kind of force myself to think about it again.
00:05:17
Speaker
You know, Tom Stewart's probably example like that. I would then, you know, maybe Hayden Young might be someone like that. I haven't really heard anyone mount an argument against starting Hayden Young. And, you know, if I'm being honest, I'm almost certainly going to start it. But I don't think it's necessarily a slam dunk pick. I mean, he's priced at 89. You know, Frio already have a couple of guys
00:05:41
Speaker
in the midfield in Sarong and Breschel that are going at 1-10ish already. You've got Nathan Fife going in a full-time role, not a bit-part role. People point to those four scores from last year when Hayden Young moved into the midfield full-time.
00:05:57
Speaker
and use that in his example of what he might do. And look, he certainly scored well in those four games. He went 119,
Midfield Potential and Key Player Analysis
00:06:04
Speaker
102, 91, 94. But in those two-ton games, he combined for 18 tackles. So you ask yourself, is that really going to be sort of sustainable? In addition to that, in those few games, Frio ran an absurdly tight CBA rotation. It was basically all three of those guys getting 80-plus CBAs.
00:06:26
Speaker
If Fife is going in there full-time and if they want to get a little bit of inside mid-time for someone like Johnson, then something's got to give there. I don't think that CBA rotation is going to stay the same at all. I question again whether Heydon Young is the absolute stone-cold lock that everyone seems to think he is, or am I missing something? What do you think?
00:06:50
Speaker
Yeah, look, I'm, I'm big on Hayden Young being a Freo man myself. Freo weren't very good in the midfield last year and they've identified a need of having that some bigger bodied midfielders in there to apply a bit of pressure, but also be able to win the ball on the inside. It's pretty well documented at this stage that as good as Andy Brayshaw is, he's not really winning the ball too much on the inside. He's, he's more of an outside player, but he does tackle. So, you know, I'm, I'm, I don't think he's going to average over a hundred. I'm not.
00:07:20
Speaker
projecting that. I've been pretty big on, you know, three midfielders in the same team, not really being able to average over 100. And if you are someone that's projecting Bray Shaw to be 110, Caleb Sorong to, you know, be what he was last year or maybe even improve with a bit of natural progression, then yeah, I can't see Hayden Young averaging over 100, but there's no reason that he can't be a 95 to 98.
00:07:44
Speaker
averaging player and that will still prove to be a good value pick from his price being a top six defender. But it also wouldn't shock me if Hayden Young goes in there and he almost becomes the number one midfielder because he's that good. He's an absolute gun. There's the Jordan Dawson comparison, which I don't think he's Jordan Dawson, but he's the bigger bodied left footer that just has an unbelievable kick and puts on amazing tackle pressure.
00:08:09
Speaker
You are right, Fife going in there. The word is that they want to get Johnson some more time in there as well. There's only so much midfield time that everyone can have, but also it wouldn't surprise me if maybe an Andy Brayshaw starts forward and rotates straight into the center bounce once Fife's done the center bounce, or maybe Brayshaw starts out on a wing and can play a bit more like Errol, where he's essentially just a fifth midfielder that just pushes in from the wing. So yeah, with Hayden Young's ownership, you'd be a brave man to pass it up.
00:08:36
Speaker
Yeah, and I think you're right. I think the ownership is probably the thing for me. It's like that plus the upside. And I completely agree with everything you've said. And again, even though I'm questioning whether he will get to triple figures, it wouldn't shock me if he went to 105, for instance. And so I can't be sort of left on the sidelines with half the comp having that in their side. And I don't. But I mean, one guy that I've been quite keen on, particularly following the Chapman injury, is Jordan Clark.
00:09:05
Speaker
And I think comparing Young to Jordan Clark is probably a good example of some of the picks that you've typically liked over the years, i.e. those guys that are not quite priced at that premium level, but with the improvement that you're projecting can get to that premium level for their line. Whereas Clark is the guy one or two tiers below that, even with improvement and perhaps even more improvement than someone like Hayden Young from a
00:09:30
Speaker
points per game perspective but unlikely to get to that sort of top six defender sort of range but you look at someone like Jordan Clark priced at 77 before there was a bit of concern whether he was going to stay at half back or perhaps get shuffled up to a wing I think perhaps now with the Chapman injury that you know that half back spot is Jordan Clark's and I do think he can probably match what Hayden Young did sort of late sorry in that half back row last year which was
00:09:59
Speaker
sort of that high 80s range and you know priced at 77 if you can go let's call it 89 to 91 Luke Ryan recently came out and specifically said that this year he's looking to lower his eyes a little bit and he felt that by looking for some sort of short range options that opens up the game a little bit more for Fremantle so does that maybe play into the hands of Jordan Clarky here's a nice kick so I mean let me put that to you what if
00:10:27
Speaker
You know, if you had the choice between picking Hayden Young at his current sort of, you know, price that point of 89, if I told you he was going to go, let's say 95 and Jordan Clark priced at 77 was going to go, let's just say 90. Who would you pick?
00:10:45
Speaker
Yeah, that's a tough one. In that scenario, probably Jordan Clark. I think I'd probably want a few points more. I think a 92 is probably where you need him to get to. And coincidentally, that is Papowski's worthwhile average number. But I think from a high 70s price point, you need low 90s to be close enough as a worthwhile pick.
00:11:06
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know Hayden Young going at 95 from an 89 price that figure. 95 is probably going to be a top six defender if not top eight and you're not going to have to trade that out until absolute luxury time.
00:11:18
Speaker
I'm right on the fence on that one, but yeah, probably Jordan Clark, if you can get to 92, but I doubt whether he can get there, to be honest. Yes, he's going into that role and there's going to be more ball back there with Hayden Young moving out, but I think it's too simplistic to say that Hayden Young out, Jordan Clark in. We did see in the last three games, him average over a hundred and I think it was about 88 in the last five, but
00:11:41
Speaker
I've always been pretty big on the last, you know, five games of football being played by a side that's not playing finals is very differently than what we're going to see to start the season and free. I need to change up what their game plan is. They come from a Buckley system or Long Muir did where they sort of chip around in the back half and don't really move it forward.
00:11:59
Speaker
Yes, there's no evidence to say that they're going to change that up at all. But if they do manage to maybe get a little bit more out of the midfield and play more of a forward half game, then maybe those numbers do drop in defense and we don't see those high defensive numbers that we saw last year. Yeah, I think that's fair.
00:12:14
Speaker
I think the hard part with that sort of price point, and you saw it with someone like an Andy McGrath last year, like everyone sort of picked him. A lot of people picked him expecting him to sort of go to that next level as well. And the problem is that those types, if they don't sort of do what you're hoping, their scores are never that bad that they become such a high priority trade out that you have to do it that week or else.
00:12:39
Speaker
but they're not really giving you anything either. And they plot along with these sort of relatively average scores. And the next thing you know, it's like seven rounds in and you haven't been able to trade them out and you're kind of stuck with them. And so, I mean, that's something I, you know,
Mid-Priced Midfielders: Risk vs Reward
00:12:54
Speaker
I wasn't an Andy Breschau or an Andy McGraw owner last year, but I know DT Lemon was. And from memory, he traded them out after round one. And I remember listening to a podcast and he was like,
00:13:07
Speaker
He actually wasn't just like, he specifically said, no, he just wasn't getting the ball back there that I thought he was. He was not getting any sort of chip, chip, chip sort of stuff. And so that's a pretty sharp sort of fantasy eye, but most people don't have that. And so he'll, you know, priced at 77, he might give you an 81 and you're like, oh, okay, maybe next week he'll pop a score and the next week it's 78. And then the next week it's 92. And then you're on here and the next week it's a 69. And then you're like,
00:13:37
Speaker
Again, you're not getting anything. So what are your thoughts in terms of that Frio game style? Do you think there's going to be all those points on offer again this year?
00:13:48
Speaker
Yeah, look, I think they probably will. I hope from a fan point of view that there isn't. I hope that they're going to improve and they're going to play more of a forward half brand and actually be able to get the ball forward because it's been very frustrating as a fan to watch them just chip around in the back and allow teams to just set up behind and pick them off when they go too slow forward because they don't have a good forward line either in terms of they're still very young. So I hope they change, but yeah, potentially it's a situation where they're not able to.
00:14:17
Speaker
If I had to project it, I'd say Jordan Clark is going to improve, but I'd peg him as more of an 87 to 89 type average, which is going to be a good improvement. But for a classic point of view, it's not going to be enough improvement and it's not going to be enough to get close to the top six numbers either, which means you do get caught in limbo or maybe you do trade him out, but you'd want to hope that you've nailed the rest of your team either because it's not going to be high priority. No, I think that's fair.
00:14:42
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, coming back to your question about my sort of defensive structure, I mean, I've, I've really liked putting sort of Zach Williams at my D6, which means probably no Coffield. Um, and you know, Coffield is another one that I've seen basically locked into every one side. And I'm, I'm not, I mean, I don't think he's going to be a bad pick. I think he will make cash. I don't think he's going to burn people, but he's priced at 40. This is not a situation where he's like basement priced.
00:15:09
Speaker
or anything like that. So he's priced at 40 and I don't think he's really ever averaged much above sort of low 60s, which again, he's gonna make you a little bit of cash, but you can get another rookie that might be able to give you that. I don't know who that might be in defense, but even someone like maybe Marty Hoare, if he's best 22, we'll get a look at him. And obviously, demons play round zero as well, but he's 60, 70K cheaper. Probably gonna give you a similar scores. But again, I've really liked my defense with
00:15:38
Speaker
with Zach Williams in that sort of D6 spot. It just means obviously spending up a little bit in the sort of that defense line, which means going a little bit thinner somewhere else. But, you know, guys that I'm looking at at that top end, I'm still really on the fence with Nick Daikos.
00:15:55
Speaker
I can I'm sort of warming to it. To me now, it's actually less about the buy or the tag and way more about whether I can actually afford it. And so I probably won't go in because again, I just think it just it's just so much money in that one spot.
00:16:14
Speaker
Again, this comes back to what I like to do, which is just put together a whole bunch of different combinations of players and the combination with Dacos, it looks great in terms of the defence, but it leaves me a little bit thin elsewhere. But other guys at that top end, I really like. With the sort of the Jack Sinclair injury, I'm looking a little bit more at Wanganeen Millerer. I mean, Sinclair is probably going to be back by round one, but
00:16:40
Speaker
You know, you then ask the question about, is he going to be a little bit underdone? Will they use him in the same role? I mean, that'll be easy to answer with the benefit of hindsight. But again, looking at him, obviously Hayden Young, we've already touched on. Harry Shiesel, I'm finding really interesting, that comment from the coach the other day. I mean, we've kind of forgotten about Shiesel and I don't understand why. Like this guy came out an average 97 in his rookie year.
00:17:06
Speaker
Um, and yes, that's a very high price. And I am also worried about him being shuffled into a midfield forward role, but the coach the other day came out and, and said to start the season, um, she's always going to be in defense. Um, and in the intro, get an, uh, intra-club the other day, she's always in defense. Now granted, there was no Fisher, there was no Scott. I don't even think Luke McDonald was playing, but, um,
00:17:32
Speaker
You know and wait and see you know where she's always lining up with all those guys there But again, the coach specifically said the plan at this stage is for for she's able to stay in defense and notably David King on Twitter I asked the question of him Do I know do you think she's gonna stay in in defense with all his guys returning and he just replied? Yes, and I I don't think he would say that without some sort of
00:17:56
Speaker
inside knowledge. And so if she's always to remain in defense, he's currently priced at 97. Would you start him? Uh, he's someone that's recently come into my side and he, he kind of goes in and out if I decide that I want to restructure and have a look at some, uh, some structures without two big dogs in defense. But yeah, absolutely. He's someone I'm looking at
00:18:21
Speaker
Yeah, I do. I've always sort of worried that he would get sort of pushed into the midfield and they may be a little bit forward because that's what they drafted him for. And I think that's where he's going to end up. But if they decide that they want another year with him just racking up off the back line, then there's no reason that he can't do what he did last year and go even better. Is there room in a North Melbourne system that don't
00:18:46
Speaker
doesn't favor scoring too heavily because, you know, they do get belted at a fair bit for him and an LDU to go 105 plus because you really need them to from those price points. Maybe Shesel doesn't need to go 105, maybe a 103, 104 would be a fantastic result from his price, but can they both do it?
00:19:04
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know. I think that'll probably be hard. The reason I like LDU, and we'll get to the mids in a minute, but the reason I like LDU so much is he's the lone top dog in that midfield. Over the years, we've often seen
00:19:20
Speaker
the one top dog mid in a relatively thin midfield in a bad side, a guy that can lay a tackle. They're the ones that tend to really put up big scores and Rowan on Twitter, he's put together this concept of market share in terms of
00:19:39
Speaker
how much of a team's points a particular player's able to gather. And that's where that sort of fits
Forward Line Reevaluation and Options
00:19:46
Speaker
with someone like an LDU. Obviously you've got a ward law in there, but he's in his second year. I actually am in Selby's camp that they're actually going to manage ward law a lot more than people realize. And so I would rather Sheezle be in defense, racking up all the ball back there and LDU be in the mid, getting everything he wants there. But I'm with you.
00:20:06
Speaker
If we get further confirmation or indication that Schiezel is staying in defence to at least start the year, I'd struggle to not start him because he's someone that we've seen him put up 120s in his rookie year. We saw Dacos's improvement from his first to second year. What's to say? We're not going to see a similar sort of improvement out of Schiezel.
00:20:27
Speaker
Anyone else that you're liking in sort of in defense? You mentioned him briefly, but didn't really touch on it. But I think Elliot Yeo is almost my first picked at the moment. Coaches are going to say you shouldn't go there because how many times has he burnt us over the last two years? But this is the type of pick that if it comes off, you're well on your way to a high ranking price at 70 full time midfield role in a team that's developing. He's going to have all of the responsibility in the world.
00:20:55
Speaker
there's always going to be that issue with his body. But, you know, if he gets to the full preseason, then there's no reason to suggest with a new medical staff and everything he's done this preseason that he's not going to be able to at a minimum put a good five, six, seven games for us and elevate his price.
00:21:11
Speaker
If it all comes off, he can average 100 and be a top six defender for us from a 70 price point. That's why I'm struggling to pick a Jordan Clark at 77 when there's an Elliott Yo at 70 just staring us in the face. Yeah, that's fair. I think Yo is in my side as well. It's just a matter of whether he's going to be
00:21:29
Speaker
D3, D4 or D5. So that's the main thing with him. What are you thinking in terms of in defense with a couple of the cheaper guys? I'll put together a couple names for you. What about a Marcus Windhager? He's priced at 63. He had a whole bunch of sub games last year.
00:21:50
Speaker
Patty Dow is now injured. Zach Jones, I think I heard that he got injured at the recent Intra club. If he's not, he's probably going to get injured soon anyway. And there was another fellow there that I'm forgetting, Brad Crouch, he's still recovering from some injury as well. So if those three are either all going to be out or at least under done,
00:22:12
Speaker
That's a pretty thin midfield. Um, so you've got Jack Steele and I'm not, I mean, Liam Henry played inside mid at their intra club the other day. So what are you thinking about Windhager? Yeah, look, he's interesting. I thought I read somewhere that Crouch played in the intra club game today or yesterday. I thought I read that in the same, the same place that said that Liam Henry was inside mid, but I might be wrong there. The problem I have with Windhager is I think he's going to be playing more midfield, but
00:22:40
Speaker
He's definitely the go-to tagger. And you're right, we don't know whether tags are going to happen or whether they'll happen early. But there was games last year that I watched with Windhanger when he was the tagger, he was not interested in the ball whatsoever. And that just really resulted in some serious floor games.
00:22:56
Speaker
And for someone at his price point, we do really need him to go 85 plus. And that's going to be quite difficult if he's going to be doing these little tagging jobs and not really hunting the footy. So I'm not there on Windhager yet, but don't get me wrong. I'm watching him pretty closely in the preseason to see what his role is. And if he is unleashed as that M3, where he's actually able to hunt the footy, then absolutely there's upside in his price. I'm just not sure where it's going to end up. No, I agree with you. I don't.
00:23:24
Speaker
I can't do it as a tag. I think it's not just about the floor scores. I think it also just massively limits the possibility of a ceiling score. And so, and really for those mid prices, you need a out of the box 110 somewhere along, you know, hopefully relatively early just to kickstart that cash gen. And, you know, if there's a possibility of, you know, a tagging role, then I can't see that happening.
00:23:48
Speaker
Yeah, and I suppose we do need to highlight the difference between tagging roles, right? So you've got a Josh Dunkley type that they say is a tagger, but he's not. He's the main go-to at the stoppage where he takes the opposition's most dangerous mid and applies pressure at the stoppage where
00:24:04
Speaker
He puts on a lot of tackle pressure, but outside of the stoppage, he's able to then go and hunt the footy and get the ball in transition. Whereas someone like a wind hager or a thin beginners, they're at the stoppage, but their role is to actually follow that player around for the entire game. And they're not really able to hunt the footy. So there is a difference there. Like a Hayden Young was a tagger at the back end of last year, but
00:24:27
Speaker
He was in that Dunkley mold where he was able to get high tackles at the stoppage because he's mounting the most dangerous mid, but he actually has a license to then hunt the footy on the outside as well. What are you thinking about Nick Dacos? I can't do it because of the Finn McGinnis into the bye, into Port Adelaide being a tough matchup as well.
00:24:50
Speaker
But in saying that, if he comes out in round zero and does everything we expect him to do and puts up a 130 plus score, maybe I do need to restructure a little bit. But at the moment, I won't be picking Nick Dacos. I think the price tag is too high.
00:25:07
Speaker
Man, he might make me look stupid again after not picking him last year if he comes out and goes from 108 to 120, but yeah, it's gonna be tough for me. So let me ask this, what does it opening round score of 127, what does that change for you? Right now, you know he can do that. In any
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
00:25:26
Speaker
given game, we know he can go 120 plus. So if he does that round zero, why does that change things for you?
00:25:35
Speaker
Yeah, no, you're right. It doesn't, I won't be picking Nick Dacos to start. If he, if he burns me, he burns me, but, um, you know, Sydney don't have Ryan Clark anymore, but they put attention into him, uh, the last three times they've played. And more often than not, we say, even though it's not really going to be the first game for them after playing round zero, but we, we generally see round one pretty hot.
00:25:54
Speaker
And then I know they've got St Kilda, I think round three, which don't get me wrong, St Kilda gave up heaps and heaps of points last year, but it would not surprise me if they run a wind hanger with him to try and put on a little bit of pressure as well. So there's just too many ifs there for me at a 108 price tag. I'm going to fade him and take him on. And if he gets me, he gets me. Yeah, no, I think that's fair. I think that's the thing with him. It's just,
00:26:22
Speaker
Both the ceiling scores, we know they're possible, but he puts together one of those, like a 60 or something like that, or an 80 against Finn, a bye, and then a 91 against Will Drew, and then he's gonna drop a fair bit, you jump on then, you're gonna be looking pretty, if I guaranteed you, obviously I can't guarantee this, but if I guaranteed you Finn McGinnis was not gonna tag him, would you pick him?
00:26:51
Speaker
Uh, I still probably, I still probably wouldn't last year. We had all the same thoughts with Sam Docherty him being the, the number one price defender by mile. You know, we pick him because he's going to be 10 points better than the next, but Sicily still went 105 Sinclair went 102. There was a couple of guys that were in the high nineties.
00:27:09
Speaker
things can happen. You know, I want to wait price tag is huge. Like I said, if he gets away to a hot start and goes 120, then I'm in a bit of trouble. But you know, that's just the game of fantasy. I think the risks of him dropping cash and being able to get in later, I think that's probably more likely in this scenario with all of the variables that we're given. No, I agree. And I think someone like Yo, I don't know. You can always have these plans now, but
00:27:37
Speaker
I'm looking at someone as like, yo, as the guy that's going to help me get to day cost. I don't think getting a Nick coffee or today costs at round seven is going to be feasible, you know, as much as we'd like to think it's going to happen. But someone like a yo, a yo, or if you're like a Buddha, Rick type, or if you want one of those sort of, you know, a wind hager type somewhere in that sort of price range. Um, and you hope that day cost has a stinker or two and he drops a hundred K and then, you know, you can put a couple of hundred K on their head.
00:28:07
Speaker
And that might be able to get you to a day costume. You're right. You only have to look at last year. I forgot the exact sort of term that was used. I think it was the, was it the three pillars of strength or the four pillars of strength? And it was Docketty in the back line, Laird in the midfield and Dunkley in the forward line. And there may have been someone else I'm not forgetting. And
00:28:26
Speaker
Doc didn't start very well, Laird had a stinker to start with, and Dunkley to start with also didn't start well. So these guys that we pick out of, ironically for safety, they often can sometimes be some of our worst picks and actually make it really, really hard to then catch up.
00:28:45
Speaker
Yeah, I agree 100%. And that fantasy IQ is figuring out and taking a bit of risk on who to fight. I know the winner last year, he didn't start with Dunkley when all we heard in the preseason that Dunkley was a must start. He's moved to Brisbane. He's going to be the second midfielder behind Neil. And if he could do what he did at the Bulldogs on 40% CBAs, then him in 80% CBAs guarantees a 115. And it just didn't happen.
00:29:13
Speaker
You know, you've got to be, you've got to, you can't be afraid to go against the echo chamber every now and again. And to be honest, if it burns you, which it definitely did for me last year in certain points, but that's just the game. If it comes off and you know, you're well on your way to a higher ranking, which is what you need. That's it.
00:29:29
Speaker
All right, let's move from defense. Let's move into the midfield now because this is an intriguing talking point. I've got a mate who a bit like you has been building up a spreadsheet and getting all these projected scores from his teams and
00:29:45
Speaker
This spreadsheet just keeps spitting out a three rookie midfield for him in terms of optimizing his starting team. And that's interesting to me because all of the teams that I've really come up with at least recently have all just only had the two rookies in the midfield. So where are you sitting at structure wise at the moment?
00:30:02
Speaker
The thing is that a spreadsheet like that is always going to favour starting that extra rookie if you plug in a score of 60 because they're so cheap and they'll outperform their price by 40 points or something. This is where some of that intuition also has to come in where it's like you're then going to ask yourself
00:30:25
Speaker
All right, well, again, you look at the new sub rules this year, any of these guys' sub risks, if they're my three on field rooks, who am I going to put on the bench? Are we going to really have five rooks? And I know someone like Sharp is not necessarily a rookie, et cetera. And so I initially, and I put up a tweet or a poll a week or two ago asking people what their preferred structure is, and it seemed to me the most
00:30:51
Speaker
popular one was off the top of my head, was probably the three rooks, followed by two rooks plus one mid-pricer. And the main mid-pricer seems to be someone like George Wardlaw. But at the moment, my favorite structure is actually two rookies with, again, one of those being Jeremy Sharpe. And even though he's rookie priced, the thing I like about that is that
00:31:19
Speaker
You know, he's not really, he probably doesn't have the same risks. I mean, you may feel differently that some of the other rooks do. So I feel a bit more confident with him. And I think McCurcher in that shizal role last year will score quite well. I can then feel quite comfortable putting a couple of rooks on my bench.
00:31:39
Speaker
whether it be a Sanders, I'm not, still not sure about him at the moment. He's getting good buzz though, but yeah, Maddie Roberts is obviously playing off a half back at the moment at Sydney. Is he gonna, is that role gonna stick? I'm not sure. Yeah, someone like Josh Sin a day or two ago did really well in the Port Intra Club. You've obviously got Lazar is also forward eligible as well. Clay Hall got injured today, but I particularly with
00:32:09
Speaker
the best 18 I like the idea of not starting as many rooks on the field but then potentially having an option to sort of loop the best bench score onto my field if that makes sense and so I think starting three rooks just doesn't make that the idea of doing that a little bit harder but maybe the benefit you get from doing that is a little bit less because you're starting the extra rook on field anyway if that makes sense so
00:32:34
Speaker
At the moment, I'm preferring starting Jeremy Sharpe and a rookie. I've actually seen some teams going with one rook. I've experimented with those sides. And you can perhaps do that this year because there does seem to be so much value on offer. We don't really have many forward premium options that we're comfortable with at all. There's a bunch of sort of, obviously, value options in the rucks as well. And so you can either
00:33:02
Speaker
spend up in the mids, but interestingly, there are also a whole bunch of mids priced around that 80 to 85 mark that can conceivably go mid to high 90s and perhaps above. So it's actually quite easy to then put a wines, a Nick Martin, an AIM on a Crouch, or a Guthrie. You could pick three or four of those and fill your midfield. And it actually doesn't look too bad. The problem is that
00:33:32
Speaker
What if all of them don't sort of do as you expect? You're kind of leaving yourself a little bit of a lurch. How many trades are you gonna be able to...
00:33:40
Speaker
really use to sort of fix up those. And again, at that price point, are you going to have a whole bunch of sort of parachute options? I'm not really sure. But at the moment, my structure is sort of a three sort of inverted commas, premium, mids, the most expensive, which is Jack Steel. And then probably I'm probably going to pick two of those.
00:34:06
Speaker
two of those options in that 80-ish, 85 sort of points per game mark that I just sort of listed off. And then as I just mentioned, then a sort of a, or two or three, I should say, I'm not sure yet. And then sort of a Jeremy Sharpe and McCurcher at M7 and M8. But for me, it's probably that M4 spot about do I pay up for that guy or do I
00:34:31
Speaker
pick that mid price, which then allows me to then fill out another sort of spot in my side. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I'm currently running with the two rookie midfield as well. Like you, I did actually experiment a few days ago with a one rookie midfield, which I actually didn't hate the look of the team, to be honest.
00:34:53
Speaker
I still think that we can't be filling our teams with too many of these guys. I know we've got unlimited trades. We've got two trades a week, which does seem like a lot, but I guarantee rounds two, three, four, five come along and three or four of them aren't performing. Two trades feels like absolutely nothing. You just can't fix.
00:35:13
Speaker
You know, all these other sides are getting off to an absolute fly because maybe they've nailed the right guy or they haven't taken on maybe quite as much risk and they're able to get across to the set of fields or to the Jack's Eagles from last year, a few injuries and then you're in a bit of strife. So I still, yeah, there's definitely room for maybe a little bit more value this year considering we are spending down in the forward line.
00:35:36
Speaker
Yeah. You know, you're saying that you've potentially got a Zach Williams at D six, which means you're starting, you know, three mid prices in defense, coupled that with two or three in the forward line, because there's no premiums on offer there. And you want to throw in another three or four value midfield guys as well. How are you getting, how are you getting five of them out at once? If they don't do what we think they'll do in preseason, which let's be honest, it's not a guaranteed that they will. No, it's a fair point.
00:36:01
Speaker
I guess my counter argument to that, and I think it's a very valid argument by the way, my counterpoint would be
00:36:08
Speaker
but what if they do all do what I'm expecting, right? I mean, that's when you're on for the highlights, right? And so I guess that comes then down to how you want to play the game or what you're kind of shooting for. And now I'm not a, although having said that on my Twitter handle, it says car or bust. I'm firmly in the camp that you can, you can't, I don't think,
00:36:34
Speaker
in all likelihood you can necessarily win the Hilux with your starting side. Even looking at Darren Carr's starting side from last year, it's not as if they've nailed every unique pick or anything like that. The old adage that it's a trading game is so true and I do think sometimes you do need to just as much as, particularly if you spend a little bit of time on the game like we do, it's
00:37:01
Speaker
always tempting to kind of back yourself, back the research that you've done. But sometimes you've just got a little bit of game theory of being like, you know what, I'm just not gonna, I'm not gonna put myself in a position where I've completely fucked my team going into round two. And I see I'm chasing my tail for the rest of the season, right? And I think that comes back to your point of like, look, not all the guys we're picking are gonna
00:37:24
Speaker
pan out like we think they are. Um, but again, the counterpoint is what they do. And so you're not wrong. You're not wrong. But the thing is, I mean, if we go through them though, you look at someone like wines, right? He's priced at 78. He
00:37:43
Speaker
he had a completely injury interrupted, not just preseason last year, but through the year. Like he was hobbled. He was not the same player. So I don't think we can look at him last year and go, I've seen some people go, Oh, but in this game he got 60% CBAs and look what he scored. He was injured. So let's not worry about last year in my view. Um, even the previous year, um, you know, like,
00:38:07
Speaker
This is a guy that, again, Port Adelaide also have a relatively nice start schedule to start the season. You look at 2022 as well, and this was the post-Brown low year where it was supposed to apparently had a hangover.
00:38:25
Speaker
He averaged 98, but you look at his sort of game log. He was getting some ceiling scores in there. He had one injury interrupted game, but would it shock you if Ollie Wines came out and over the first six rounds averaged 102?
00:38:40
Speaker
Right? That wouldn't shock you, would it? And I, from all reports, Hinkley came out a week or two ago and said, Ollie's back. He's going to be back in the inside. None of this playing him on the wing anymore. It sounds like Will Drew's potentially going to be lining up on the, at least in terms of the center bounce, is going to be out on the wing. Maybe he goes on the inside for certain games, depending on matchups or whatever. But
00:39:07
Speaker
I think they're going to run a relatively tight rotation with Rosie Butter's wines with Horned Francis chipping in there, obviously Drew chipping in there and throwing the odd occasional one or two other guys. I actually think that wines will get back to 70% CBAs and in that scenario, he could score quite well.
00:39:30
Speaker
The question is, one Port Adelaide are a very low fantasy scoring team. Coming back to your earlier point with regards to Sarong and Braeshaw, how many teams are going to have, you know, three guys going 100 plus? You know, Ken Wines, Ken Wines get there. And I guess my counterpoint to that would be, we don't need him to do it for a season. Can he do it for eight weeks? That's, that's the question.
00:39:57
Speaker
Yeah, no, that's exactly right. There's no, there's no reason that you can't have three midfielders average over a hundred for a stretch if they've got a good, a good run. Uh, yeah, look, I'm, I'm very interested to see how Port Adelaide line up and how Wines goes. It's part of the reason why I've been a little bit colder on butters as well, just because I think Rosie is the man, like he's the man in there. And I, I, I probably put money on him at least staying where he is, if not improving slightly.
00:40:23
Speaker
But, you know, if Wines is going to come back in and be that's not the same guy, he's not going to win a Brown low, but if he's going to come in and take the load off those younger guys so that they can push deeper in finals and really give it a go, then in that low scoring system, there's only so much ball to go around. You know, can Butters go above 105 from there? He obviously can, but whether he does or not,
00:40:46
Speaker
Who really knows? Wines is an interesting one. You've been really big on Cam Guthrie as well. Can you just sell him to me because I'm not there? He's on the shortlist. I wouldn't say I'm huge on him. He's not in my team at the moment. I think the thing with Guthrie is, again, he's priced at 84.
00:41:07
Speaker
He was obviously injured last year. He's come out. He's saying he's fit. Danger's saying he's had a ripping pre-season. He's looking amazing. Again, I'd put him in the same bracket as a wines of. I don't think they're guys that I think are going to average 105 for the season by any stretch, but I do think that they are guys that I think can
00:41:31
Speaker
put together a high 90s, low 100 average over six to eight weeks. And again, it kind of depends on how you want to approach the game. But I think if you're going to be relatively aggressive in terms of trading those types out at the right time, and that's not easy to do at all.
00:41:49
Speaker
Um, that's when someone like that will, you know, I think has a roller plan in your side. I'm probably not going to roll with a Guthrie because I'm, I don't know. I think he's got an okay floor. Um, I questioned the upside, um, there in terms of putting together a ceiling score. Um, and, and again, coming back to your point, I just don't know how many of these guys I can have. And I probably prefer a few of the others.
00:42:15
Speaker
Are there any guys you are considering above the 100 mark? So you said your most expensive midfielder is Jack Steele. Are there any captain options above that that you're looking at? The only, Rosie's been in and out of my side, but the Port Adelaide guys are kind of
00:42:33
Speaker
I'd rather just watch and see how that whole situation shakes out and I'd put the Fremantle sort of guys in the same bucket. It's just, again, you've got five going in there full-time midfield, wine's coming back in a healthy
00:42:48
Speaker
you know full-time inside mid-roll and I just want to see what happens there and again if if if rosie was priced at 97 or something like the shore but he's priced at 106 already um and so I just don't know where he can go from there well I know where he can go I'm just not sure it's going to happen and so the the only one I would say that I've
00:43:11
Speaker
I'm really interested in is Darcy Parrish. I don't know why. The one thing I like about him is he's remarkably consistent. We talk about these guys at the 105, 110 mark and they get off to a stinker and then you can pick them up cheaper.
00:43:33
Speaker
Parrish has got an amazing floor. It's like he never scores below 90. The problem, though, is when I looked at his numbers a little bit deeper, it's just that the lack of ceiling scores with Merritt in the side. That seems to be the issue. When Merritt's not in the side, and the reverse is probably also true, by the way, with Merritt and Parrish, but with Merritt in the side, Darcy doesn't seem to get those
00:43:58
Speaker
the monster scores that I think he got, what was it, 2021? I can't remember exactly. Yeah, Merritt was out during that patch too. Exactly. And so, but Parrish again, like, you know, we can talk about how much value is in these comments, but Merritt's come out and said Parrish is in absolutely ripping Nick. He's at that age where, you know, guys sometimes, it's not often, but sometimes do go to that next level. It's not always linear.
00:44:27
Speaker
And so, you know, he's got that inside-outside game. I do think Essendon are going to be better this year, which, you know, should help him as well. And so just purely on intuition and just guess, to be honest with you, I can see him going from 106 to 112, you know, but then you go, look, otherwise I could easily just, you know, pick up a
00:44:52
Speaker
you know, obviously, Jack Steele, we've already talked about, but even, you know, a giant you can like, you know, giant you can I'm pretty bullish on I wrote that the deck of DT article on giant you can, you know, I could see him matching parish as well. So then when you're putting together this spreadsheet, and you basically pegged them at roughly the same average, let's say, it's hard to then pick parish. So, so yeah, nice question, I'm probably not going to pick anyone price that
00:45:18
Speaker
sort of well, you know, well above a hundred, but if I was going to pick one, it would probably be him. What about you? Yeah, look, I thought you were going to turn around and ask me that before you went on your big chat, but Parrish is actually my M1 at the moment. Maybe a little bit of gut feel as well. You know, you know, coaches are going to turn around and say, well, you always said that you just said before that, you know, you can't have too many midfielders averaging, you know, above 100, but
00:45:46
Speaker
We keep hearing about this deep Essendon midfield, but I think it's the absolute opposite. I think it's Merritt and Parrish and then it's daylight. You've just had hopes with his AC joint. They put Caldwell through there sometimes and then it's the kids, it's Perkins, it's maybe a Sardis, you know, Stringer goes in there for one CBA a quarter, but it's just those two and absolutely nothing. So it wouldn't surprise me if we have a year where both of them average 110 because Essendon aren't a good footy side. They're not going to be pushing for finals or at least pushing for a premiership.
00:46:13
Speaker
those are the type of teams you need a hunt for your fantasy scorers. You look at a Collingwood, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, you know, they don't have these high fantasy scoring midfielders because they're playing good team football. It's not what happens, but a team like Essendon that are, you know, not in the hunt more than happy to chip around and get that cheap ball.
00:46:31
Speaker
It would not surprise me if we had Parrish and Merritt both go above 110 this year. So he's in there for me at the moment, whether I hold my nerve and pick him or not, it's a different question. But yeah, I think if it does come together for him, I could see him going above 110 and being a pretty valuable pick. Interesting. One thing in the midfield that I've been sort of going back and forth on, and I'll credit both your conversation with both Lemon and more recently with JD that probably
00:46:59
Speaker
open my eyes up to this a little bit, which is starting those midfielders that have the early buy. So, specifically guys like a Walsh,
00:47:12
Speaker
or even a Took who no one seems to be talking about at the moment, which is pretty amazing. But I'm actually, depending obviously on what they look like in round zero, and I question, I still question with Walsh that Carlton game style. You saw what happened the second half of last year when Carlton clearly changed their game style and it did not suit Walsh at all. His marks completely fell off the map and
00:47:41
Speaker
but sometimes in these teams and we saw it with day cost last year sometimes with these low scoring teams you do have a guy that is just immune to it and they're just too bloody good and Walsh might be that guy this year and i think i read somewhere i can't remember where that this is his first
00:47:57
Speaker
proper full preseason he's had in a couple of years, right? And so I think as fantasy community, we can often underestimate the importance of a full preseason. And guys that have a pretty interrupted preseason, they're often chasing their tail throughout the year and they can never get back to what they otherwise would have been. And so again, it's his first full preseason in a little while.
00:48:21
Speaker
We saw what he did in the finals. Even with the Carlton game, someone might not be suiting his thing. He's priced at, what is it? 94, 95 in that range? 95. Especially if you're only starting, say, two rooks in the midfield. And this is why I like not going to too many rookies in the midfield. It gives you this flexibility of like, OK, you know what? That round two, whatever game it is that Walsh has is by.
00:48:49
Speaker
I can then loop one of my midfield bench rookies to replace that score. So I've got potentially a double shot at a decent rookie score to replace Walsh. And let me be optimistic and say that spits out a 70. I'm paying a price of 95 for Walsh. You lose out on the equivalent of 20, 30 points. It's not the end of the world.
00:49:14
Speaker
The question is, how many of those guys can you do that with? If Walsh comes out and looks amazing, I'm probably going to start him. I think you can do this with these guys that you think are clearly undervalued. If Walsh didn't have that buy, I think he'd be on everyone's radar and be a very, very popular pick.
00:49:36
Speaker
And so there's an opportunity there to potentially to get a little bit ahead of the pack by just eating that by and getting an under priced premium at value.
00:49:46
Speaker
Yeah, look, we don't need to talk about that anymore. I think you summed that up beautifully. And to your point, he's actually in my side at the moment. I'm looking to structure up with him. I do have Jeremy Sharp on the bench who has North Melbourne in round two when he's on the buy. So potentially, you know, hopefully Sharp can have a bit more of a ceiling score there and maybe I'm not losing out on too many points. But yeah, I think
00:50:10
Speaker
with his value, I still believe his value, that Mick Dacos comparison, although he's not Mick Dacos, I don't think he's gonna...
00:50:18
Speaker
I think he's got potential even in that system to be the guy that just elevates. Yeah, don't underestimate what a full preseason in that system and him learning it again is going to do for not only his body, but his confidence as well. So I'm looking at it. Worst thing, yeah, everyone's going to have a look at it round zero anyway. And if he comes out and does what we think he's going to do in a tough matchup against Brisbane, I think he'll be a lot more highly owned than what he is now.
00:50:42
Speaker
Yeah, I think we are kind of overplaying the buyers a little bit. Yes, it's best 18 for four of the first six rounds, but it's still a 24-round season and it's a marathon, not a sprint. Agree. All right, let's move on to the forwards, mainly because I think the rucks have been done to death a little bit. We've spoken about it a lot on Pod Pod and even some of the other interviews that we've done.
00:51:04
Speaker
Yeah, I think we'll just park that for now and we'll wait to see. I think the interesting conversation with the rucks will be, if we don't have a playing R3, can you start Grundy and Gorn? But until we know that, I think we'll just park that for now. Let's have a look at the forwards. What are you thinking at the moment with the forwards? If you're looking at your structure with, you know, paying up in defense and paying up in the midfield, where are you lining up with the forwards?
00:51:26
Speaker
I'll be honest with you, it changed today. That comment by dimmer that I think everyone's probably seen by now, look, it does change things for me. Up until today, I had a very, very cheap forward line to the point where
00:51:43
Speaker
I think I might like, I don't think I had anyone over 500 K. Um, and so, you know, I didn't feel comfortable with it, even though, you know, I still think a lot of them were good picks, but you know, we've got at the moment, I think everyone's got Harley Reid at D six. I'm waiting to see what happens with Alex Sexton in this half back roll. If that, if that's legit and it seems to be, um, at three 82 K that's that's, I can't pass that up.
00:52:11
Speaker
I think Nat 5 in a full-time mid-roll, I think, again, I don't think he's a natural scorer, but you look at what he did and granted it was a couple of years ago when he was getting 70, 80% CBAs, he can score okay. And we don't need him to do 98 anymore. So even if he can come out and give us 77, something like that, I'll take that in a heartbeat.
00:52:38
Speaker
And so I'll probably be starting with him. And then you've got someone like Zach Fisher, who I'm still pretty hot on. I think he's apparently coming out and playing in their practice game next. So his hamstring can't be that bad. It's only been a couple of weeks. I am nervous that he's had a couple of hammy sort of scares in a short period of time. And this was after reportedly coming into sort of
00:53:05
Speaker
the North Melbourne camp, perhaps not in the best shape. But in that North Melbourne system, I probably can't pass up those points. So he's there as well. Finn McCray, I think everyone's kind of hot on. I think for me, it's a question of whether I'm happy to put him
00:53:24
Speaker
on the field or be really conservative and pay up a little bit on my bench. Some of that might depend on what the other bench options look like. Can we just talk about Finn a little bit? Because all reports are he's absolutely lighting up the preseason. But I think we've kind of got this little bit of groupthink echo-chained with Finn and we're all just kind of locking him in. But let's just be a little bit realistic here. He's trying to break into a premiership side.
00:53:50
Speaker
that hasn't got any injuries at the moment, not that I can really know of, of their best 22. They've got Locky Schultz coming in, who's replacing Taylor Adams, but what's to say that Finn's not in one week, out the other week, or whether he's, you know, the sub, then he's out of it, then he's getting subbed. Like, I don't think he's the smash pick that we, you know, are all expecting him to be.
00:54:10
Speaker
I think it's a fair question. For me at the moment, he's on my bench for that reason. I think he's even at a sub-risk as well. I don't know. I think it's easy to put him at D5 or even D4 if you've got sext in there as well. You've saved a lot of money in your forward line. As you said, next thing you know, he's not in the side or whatever.
00:54:34
Speaker
You don't have a lot of options to go to from that point. And so I'd probably, at this point, he's parked on my bench just because, again, if I lose a little bit of confidence in him, I can easily trade him for another rookie, no problem. But yeah, I think you sort of raised the right questions. To be honest, I think round zero is going to sort of answer a lot of questions. It's a cheat code, isn't it? It is, yeah.
00:54:58
Speaker
You know, just because he's picked in round zero and picked in round one doesn't mean he'll be there in rounds two, three, four. It's, I mean, let's be honest, John Noble couldn't crack into that side late last year. And he's a very, very good footballer and you've got Locky Schultz come in. Yeah. I don't know. Jack Beitel as a SPP, like I don't think he's going to play either, but that's just another, you know, added pressure in the midfield.
00:55:21
Speaker
I think he's right on the cusp. I think, I think, and, and look, it's going to come down to his own performance, whether there's a couple of injuries, but look, the reality is anyone priced at 300 K or less is on the cusp. And so, um, but I think your point is well made that like, if you're going to put him on field, don't assume it's without sort of risk at all. Um, and I think those other sort of round zero guys that I'll be watching, obviously James Jordan, um, Taylor Adams,
00:55:48
Speaker
And as I said, I didn't have Flanders up until today. I was very happy kind of just saying, let's see what he's like in that dimmer game style. We've got a couple of games and then he's bi. And then if he really looks great, then pick him up after the bi. But I think now I'm just like, you know what, Bugger, and I think it was DT Lemon on your
00:56:12
Speaker
you know, on a recent episode with you, his comment, I remember it well was like Flanders is not one we should overthink. And I think it's now pretty clear that's probably gonna be the case. It's all well and good to say, look, I'm just gonna pick him up after the buy after I've had a good look and that's fine. But as you sort of pointed out earlier, you get a couple of extra bullets here and there and you know, you can't then just go and get a Flanders when you choose to get him.
00:56:38
Speaker
or on top of that, what if at the same time Walsh looks amazing and you want to get him or took Miller looks amazing and you want to get him or a willpower has broken out and you're like, shit, I need to get him in my defense. Like you're not going to be able to pick up all these guys at the exact point in time that you wish to. So you might need to sort of consider biting the bullet and starting one or two of them that you actually really like for the season. And for me, that's probably going to be Flanders as my as my F1.
00:57:06
Speaker
Yeah, I agree with that. Yeah. Zach Fisher comments intrigued me a little bit. I'm not looking to go there anymore, to be honest, after the hammies, but I don't think you could be looking at starting, looking at starting a shizzle and then, you know, you got McCurcher as well. And then also a Zach Fisher. I think those roles kind of contradict each other. I think you'd really be banking on shizzle going into the midfield to open up a lot more ball in defense. You know, Bayley Scott's know, like Bayley Scott's
00:57:33
Speaker
proven. He scored well last year, but he's, he's a very important part of that system. Luke McDonald has showed in the past as well that he doesn't mind getting the ball with a little bit of extra responsibility as well. So, you know, although there's going to be a lot of ball back there, I'm not sure I see Zach Fisher going, you know, 85, 90, which, which we would need him to and added with the hamstring risk. I'm just not sure I could go there anymore. That's a fair point. And the coach the other day,
00:57:57
Speaker
When he was talking about she's all staying in defense and he was pretty clear about it. It wasn't any sort of ambiguity in terms of what's going to happen. He was like, no, he's staying in defense to, you know, to start the year with basically his words. But he also said he listed off she's all McCurcher.
00:58:16
Speaker
Luke McDonald and I can't remember if you mentioned Scott as well but he specifically said but we also need to be able to defend and he specifically said like we're not gonna probably be able to start all of them and so it's probably a fair question about if Fisher's even definitely best 22 like it may not be. Yeah well just on that I don't know if you've listened to Selby's latest podcast but
00:58:39
Speaker
You know, we don't listen to Xavier very much when he talks about what a player can score, but with his fantasy knowledge and he basically came out and said he would have thought Fisher's probably not best 22 and would need to start in the Magoos.
00:58:49
Speaker
Interesting. Yeah. So I, I, if she's was in defense, like that might be the sort of, that might be their backup plan. Well, they're planned for when she's all moves up the ground, we'll move she's a lot of the ground and then we'll shuffle Fisher back there to replay like maybe something like that. I don't know, but I agree. I, I can't see them starting all of it, but look, he's, he's in my team at the moment. I, I, cause again,
00:59:12
Speaker
If he's playing in that role, I think he's going to score well. The question is if he's going to play there. But I think you've certainly raised some doubt there as well. So I might have to reassess that position. But look, there's a lot of guys around that price. Conor McDonald has
00:59:28
Speaker
apparently did really well in that intra club the other day with Dylan Moore now injured we're probably gonna start to you know I think there's gonna be a lot more of those sort of transition points on offer someone like Conor McDonald with his sort of work grade I think is gonna be able to benefit a lot from that so he's someone I wasn't that hot on before I was just like what's really changed other than a bit of natural progression from last year I wasn't really sure what's gonna change but I think someone like
00:59:54
Speaker
Dylan Moore getting injured. I think that probably opens up a little bit more usage for Conor McDonald. I don't think he's necessarily going to get the inside mid-time that people seem to be predicting though. And I know you said this in confidence to me in our DMs, so what about a James Harms?
01:00:14
Speaker
I like him. I do like him. And like, you know, I think you were talking about him with someone else the other day, but I'm, I, I think that article that you alluded to and you know, you spoke, speaking about it with JD, I think that's telling like harms came out and he was like, I wasn't enjoying my footy. I had these mental health struggles. I've come to a team. I know what the role is. Um, I don't think he's going to be playing full-time inside mid, but
01:00:41
Speaker
even a little bit of sort of inside mid-time at the dogs, they're like one of the highest stoppage teams in the comp. And so like, you know, I would rather have some inside mid-time at the Western Bulldogs, then, you know, a little bit like a fair bit more at someone like Essendon, where they've got, they don't have any stoppages, right? And so I think you've got to factor that in. And he seems to be enjoying his footy a bit. He's someone that has scored well in the past, and obviously then sort of
01:01:08
Speaker
started getting these sort of defensive duties at the Ds now it's possible that you know the doggies use him in that sort of sort of role as well I don't know if they will I don't think they've typically done that sort of thing but they they may but I don't know I kind of and I think I said this to you I likened him to the the Jaden Hunt pick from last year where it's like I don't think he's going to generate as much cash or be such a good pick that that Hunt was but
01:01:36
Speaker
It's similar in that they had changed teams. Everyone seems to have forgotten about them. They haven't been on the fantasy radar for years, and so we've just forgotten about them. And now they've moved into a new team, potentially into a better role.
01:01:52
Speaker
And it's fair to ask, could he be a better pick than, you know, Rachele was pretty popular. I think he's priced around that mark. I mean, you've got a few guys around that mark. You've obviously got Rachele, Conor McDonald, Liam Baker's another one who's apparently
01:02:07
Speaker
You know, also getting a little bit of midfield time. He came out and said, I want, um, I'm going to be, I've been training the mid midfield all year and I'm hopefully that sticks throughout the year. I think it was a little bit of a, a dig to some sick of being shuffled around as the Mr fix it. I still think he'll be used sort of as a sort of, you know, flexible sort of guy. But again, there's a few guys, but no harms is definitely on my shortlist.
01:02:31
Speaker
Yeah, look, it's, he's on mine too. And I want to see it. I want to see what his role is in the preseason obviously, but in the intra-club game, uh, last week you had Bontralor and Libba as the main midfield. And then in the other side, you had harm Sanders and one other bloke. So what that tells me is that harms and Sanders are potentially fighting for that M4, M5 position.
01:02:55
Speaker
And if he's M4 and he's able to get 40% CDAs in that system, you've got a bloke that's averaged in the 80s twice before, and he's even averaged, I think, 94 as well. So he's got proven scoring, new role at a new club. They've given him three years. They clearly see something in him and have a role for him.
01:03:12
Speaker
Yeah, it's not going to be full time inside me, but I struggle to to really understand why there's been so much hype around O'Connor McDonald, Joshua Shelley, all of these players at 70. So you're banking on, you know, I get it. It's the natural progression. We all want to be the guys that, you know, nail the breakout. But we've got a guy here that's got proven scoring and he's going into a system that has been scoring as good as any other system for years now. So I am definitely not sleeping on James' arms at the moment. No, I agree with you. I agree with you.
01:03:42
Speaker
Yeah. Are there any other players around that price point you're considering before we kind of wrap this up? No, I just mentioned obviously, who was it? No, not around that price point. I mean, obviously we've got Billings there again that we're going to be able to watch. He's a little bit cheaper. I mean, the other good thing about that harms price point is like, we've got so many, like it's not like where there's like going to be six forwards that are all averaging 95 and a hundred. And so if he fails,
01:04:11
Speaker
You're going to have some parachute options. There's going to be some where that emerges, even if it's those other names that you mentioned that do happen to be the breakout guy. You're going to be able to pivot reasonably easily, which again comes back to your earlier point of life. We've just got to be careful about starting so many of these mid-price speculative types because they're not all going to do what we want.
01:04:36
Speaker
Yeah, nah, summed it up well, mate. So thank you so much for jumping on and it's been a pretty long pod and it's pretty late over there in Melbourne. But where can the listeners find you on Twitter? Yeah, all good. Yeah, I'm just usually hanging out on Twitter. You can search for me at fantasy nut. Yeah, I'm just usually just sort of regurgitate some of my thoughts up there to sort of ask various questions and that sort of stuff. So yeah, come on and engage.
01:05:05
Speaker
Nah, you keep doing what you're doing, mate. It's really good to read your threads and to see these different opinions because we keep saying it, but there definitely is an echo chamber between the content creators on Twitter. So it's definitely good to see a whole bunch of different perspectives and you definitely provide that. But thanks again for jumping on and we'll definitely chat soon. Appreciate it, mate. Thank you.