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March Madness is Here!!! Houston is the #1 Seed in the South + Bracket Analysis.
107 Plays1 year ago
Welcome to Episode 22 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
The Cougars are now 30-4, the #2 1 Seed of the NCAA Tourney, & the #1 Seed in the South Region where we'll get to play the 2nd weekend within the state of Texas! And though we lost a meaningless Big 12 Championship game to ISU by a large margin, the key for us was getting out without any further injuries & providing our bench players more meaningful minutes.
This is our inaugural March Madness episode, so we'll begin this one with a few thoughts on the Big 12 Championship. Then spend the bulk of the time discussing the NCAA Draw, zeroing in on the South Region & what we think of Houston's chances. But also provide an overall view of each region, how we think things will shake out, & then each predict our Final 4 participants and winners.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on https://gocoogs.com/old-men/
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Transcript
Introduction to Episode 22 and Key Focus
00:00:05
Speaker
Welcome folks to the 22nd episode of No Conference for Old Men. The podcast where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well, and proud members of the Goku's.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
Houston Cougars' Seeding and Injury Update
00:00:23
Speaker
The Big 12 conference championship is over.
00:00:26
Speaker
And our Houston Cougars are 30 and 4, the second ranked number one seed by the selection committee and are the number one seed in the South region like we wanted after getting smashed by ISU in a meaningless game in the conference championship. Lots of fans were sounding the alarms after the large margin lost ISU.
00:00:47
Speaker
But as you guys know, I didn't even watch a single Big 12 championship game live because it had no influence on our NCAA tourney seating. Our only concern was getting out of the games without further injury. And unfortunately, Roberts did sustain a shouldn't confusion in the semis.
00:01:05
Speaker
Fortunately, it isn't any more serious than it is. He was able to move around a bit, play for a half in the ISU game, hopefully not playing the second half and having an extra day to rest, given our Friday game time will allow for any pain and swelling to go down.
00:01:21
Speaker
Now on to the games that really count.
March Madness and Big 12 Perspectives
00:01:24
Speaker
And again, all three of us are back with Tom Lydiak, former coach, Bill Walker, former player, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy for this episode. This is Money Time with March Madness beginning this week. So this will be our very first March Madness episode. So we'll begin by giving a few brief thoughts on the Big 12 championships, provide an overview of our NCAA seating and the quadrant itself in the South.
00:01:50
Speaker
forecast our potential first two games, provide comments on the overall tourney draw, maybe even highlighting some upset picks we've got in our brackets, and share our final four and winner for a national champion. Okay, let's get into it, guys. We end the season going into the tourney and amazing 30 and four. The second number one seed. How about just some quick tidbits on the conference tourney from each of you before we get into the meat of the episode with March Madness and our chances in the tourney?
00:02:20
Speaker
Tom, why don't you kick us off with your coach's thoughts on the Big 12 championships? Steve, I'll agree with you about the tournament that I wouldn't say worthless, but we had already wrapped up a number one seed before the tournament even started. We had nothing really to gain from playing in this tournament, and we had a bunch of stuff we could lose. You look around the country, I think UConn was the only team that won the regular season title that also won their conference tournament.
00:02:48
Speaker
You know, everybody else, I think the other five conferences, somebody else won. We went through a two month grind, won the conference by two games. You know, we have three of our top six players out for the year. Juwan six, you know, seven stitches in a hand and a bone contusion. So there's not really a whole lot to gain. Top that off with 17,000 or so Iowa State fans.
00:03:17
Speaker
Yeah, granted, that was their third game of three days. But when you have 17,000 people cheering you on, you know, you don't want to let them down. So take the tournament for what it's worth. Obviously, I don't like them. Something I thought Jay Bilas will go and I ran about. But then I was thinking, wait, he's a corporate shield. He's not going to say anything about conference tournaments because they make a lot of money.
Defensive Strategies and Media Critique
00:03:42
Speaker
First opponent, TCU.
00:03:44
Speaker
We did our best Justin Verlander impersonation by throwing a shutout for the longest time. I think it was, I don't know, seven, eight minutes or so before TCU got a bucket.
00:03:56
Speaker
Held them 35 points below their average. We held them to 45 points. And we did give up those 30 offensive rebounds. Most of those were from the guards, just not holding their block out long enough. But you hold a team that was averaging, I don't know, 80 points a game to 45. I think that should have been the talk, I believe, with the talking heads and all the TV stations. But it wasn't.
00:04:23
Speaker
I don't think anybody mentions TCU's 45 points when they talk about their game coming up with Utah State. Then we rolled into Tech, got out to a pretty good lead.
00:04:33
Speaker
They cut it, I believe, to, I think it was three at halftime. We came out a little bit sluggish. Jamal went to the bench for a couple of minutes, for a couple of game minutes. When he came back in, our offense just took off. You know, we scored 82 points. And once again, not a whole lot of people around the country were focusing on great offensive half we had also, you know, holding tech to 59 points.
00:04:56
Speaker
Tech was going through some injuries too. They've lost a couple of their big guys. So they were playing four guards. We were playing four guards. It was, it was interesting. And then, and then we go into Iowa State. I just kind of mentioned that you can't define a team like some of these national media pundits are doing based on an inconsequential half of basketball. And that's what some of them are doing. So that's all I have to say about, about that game.
00:05:26
Speaker
if anything, that Iowa State game is just going to fuel this team, I think for the next couple of weeks. Completely agree. How about you, Bill?
00:05:35
Speaker
Well, kind of the same thing. It was just, you guys saw from the techs that I was doing during the tech game, but you hear so much negativity and I get it when, you know, it's human nature. U of H is so good that if things aren't going perfectly, the tendency is to say, well, you know, why isn't this continuing along this path?
00:06:03
Speaker
I mean, there was a lot of complaining during the TCU game. We held their best shooter, not necessarily their best shooter overall, although PV's been kind of their leading scorer, but he was their best shooter in the game and he shot six of 14. That was their best statistically shooting player, six of 14. I mean, we gave up 15 points in the first half. Yeah.
00:06:31
Speaker
Our offense wasn't great. We got out rebounded by 16. You mentioned Tom, the 30 offensive boards, which is kind of insane, almost as insane as TCU putting up 73 shots, which, you know, I can't remember unless you go back to like the Loyola Marymont UNLV days. I mean,
00:06:53
Speaker
73 shots is crazy. But the thing is, they hit 17 of them, they shot 23% from the field, they shot 2 of 20 from behind the arc, 10%. I mean, the defense was just beyond extraordinary. And, you know, if there's one thing to take away from it, we'll need a little more help from the guards.
00:07:18
Speaker
supporting Francis and Robert, especially when one of them isn't in the game rebounding, but it was just a huge win. Tech get out to a big lead, as you mentioned.
00:07:31
Speaker
We let off the gas pedal a little bit. And then we stepped up and we did what the better team does. We blew them out. Pop Isaacs for the entire game held him to two of 13 and one of six from three, six points for the game. You know, this game, when things happen, you know, you may or may not react in certain ways. And this is where Roberts went down and only played seven minutes. And so you,
00:08:01
Speaker
get into your head, he's the number one offensive option inside. And, you know, when you've got said coming in for him, who's not an option, you know, it changes the way you do things and everything's not going to flow it entirely the way it should.
00:08:19
Speaker
But we did what we needed to do and we blew them out. I will point out that I was extremely fired up when Sharp hit Loth with the alley-oop dunk at the end. And as fired up as I was, I don't think I was half as fired up as his teammates were. That was absolutely awesome. And then.
Conference Tournaments: Meaning and Media Influence
00:08:39
Speaker
You know, Steve, you and I have been talking about this for a while that the tournament just means nothing. I had people texting me. These are a lot of friends from out of state texting me the first couple of games, particularly the tech game. And they're like, wow, this is the first time I've seen U of H there.
00:08:56
Speaker
I was saying people were texting me on Saturday saying, God, what the hell is going on? They look terrible. And I had the exact same response. You could look at my phone. I just would copy and paste the response I had to the first one. And I sent it about a dozen times. It was like, look, we were the number one seed in the South going into this game.
00:09:20
Speaker
we could lose this game by the 28th that we did. We could have won it by 28. We could have lost at the buzzer. We could have won at the buzzer. We're going to emerge from this game as the number one seed in the South. It did not matter. I'm sure there have been dozens, at least, of other tournament games that have been equally as irrelevant. But this game was as irrelevant as it gets. Our spot was set. Nothing was going to change.
00:09:50
Speaker
Roberts only played 13 minutes. Francis fouled out in 19 minutes. But we had a horrible shooting game. Committed a dozen turnovers. They shot 50% from the field, 40% from three. And we still held them to under 70 points. So there's some positives to be taken away from it. But in the end, who cares? We're healthy. Well, we're as healthy as we are. I get healthy, yeah.
00:10:15
Speaker
we're as good as we could be going forward. That's the number one takeaway from this game. Although there is one other takeaway that I'll mention, and Tom, you mentioned the 17,000, you know, everyone was talking about 17,000 Iowa State fans, 17,000 Iowa State fans, home game for Iowa State. I hope to God that when we are playing in the sweet 16 and the elite eight in Dallas, it becomes,
00:10:43
Speaker
17,000 U of H fans and it becomes just like Kansas City was for Iowa State this past weekend. Hey Bill, you talked about how having to hear it from people, you know, in the Iowa State game. How about living up here in Northwest Iowa where most people are Iowa State fans? I tried to tell him. I said this game was meaningless. I mean, to put it in perspective, what was Malik Wilson at the beginning of the year? Was he our 10th man? Was he even? I don't think so.
00:11:11
Speaker
I think he was our 10th man. Yeah, that's right. He played all 20 minutes the second half. Yeah. Yeah. It was scary the lineup we had out there in the second half. Well, that's funny that you mentioned that, Tom, because I'm going to bring that up when we get into the potential
00:11:30
Speaker
A&M preview. But the last thing I'll say is that it wasn't just friends of mine that were texting. I couldn't believe the idiots on national TV that were saying, Oh my God, you know, U of H is flawed during the selection shows. People are saying they're going to be the first ones knocked out. Look what happened to them. I'm like,
00:11:53
Speaker
Did any of you bother to realize that this game, how irrelevant this game was? How can you guys that are being paid what you're being paid, you're on national TV and you can't figure this out or you don't have someone that's in your ear telling you that this game was irrelevant? It's like, oh my God. They don't have the guts to go up against their corporate sponsors, you know?
00:12:19
Speaker
ESPN, you know, CBS. They can't say these conference tournaments are meaningless because they want viewers. No, no, no, I'm not. I'm not saying to say that it's meaningless, but I mean, how can not one person figure out that this game meant nothing to you of age? Oh, hey, Bill, I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm just saying the guys like Bilas and Greenberg and Jay Williams and all that.
00:12:47
Speaker
you know, privately, they probably know that these tournaments are meaningless, you know, because they're on ESPN or whatever, they got to pump up these conference tournaments. And yeah, I mean, I'm not disagreeing with you. I agree with you. I agree with you that conference tournaments are big moneymakers and, you know, ESPN has a lot of the conferences on and so forth. But after the fact, just don't say anything. Don't say, well, you have H. Well,
00:13:16
Speaker
Yeah, I think we're burning too many cycles on this, right? It's meaningless. Quite honestly, for the commentators, they have to have their hot takes for TV. And I know you highlighted Bilas, but if you look at his bracket, he's got us going to the finals versus Yukon. So let's not pile him in with a great me.
00:13:35
Speaker
I'm not on him nearly as much as Jay Williams. Yeah. Jay Williams is clueless. Oh my God. Yeah. Oh my God. Yeah. Don't even get me started with him. Yeah. Okay.
00:13:50
Speaker
I'm probably at an extreme here. I didn't care one bit about the conference championships. I know it makes the conference a lot of dollars. So it's important from that perspective. I watched every single regular season game for UH live. I didn't watch a single big 12 championship game live at all because they were meaningless quite honestly. But for us, it was about getting our bench. Lat Wilson done meaningful minutes. We achieved that and not sustaining any new injuries.
00:14:20
Speaker
kind of a half check mark with Roberts getting yet another injury. But, you know, a little bit of a limp. He gave it a go in the second half against Tech, played the first half against ISU. I'm hoping, especially since we've got a Friday game, that he'll get enough rest and hopefully we blow long without where he doesn't have to play a whole lot and he'll be ready to go on Sunday. Most important is being in peak form for round two versus either A&M or Nebraska.
00:14:48
Speaker
I will say a lot of shit was being talked by ISU fans after the win. Some pretty lowbrow stuff actually hitting our Twitter account that I won't get into any details here. Huge respect for the ISU program where we haven't said a negative word about them all season. And I know every fanbase has some bad apples, but come on, let's be better than this man.
00:15:11
Speaker
It's great for the conference with a one seed and a two seed. Let's unite as big 12 members and do some damage in the attorney that counts in the next few weeks. Anyways, now let's get into the meat of the discussion. How about being the number two one seed, getting the South region like we wanted so we potentially get to go to Dallas and the teams in our brackets. Bill, why don't you start off in giving some of your thoughts around our brackets specifically and our seeding.
Bracket Insights and Strategy
00:15:39
Speaker
Yeah, well, again, the seeding is what I've expected it to be for quite a while. You know, the number one overall seed gets to pick their region. Well, Yukon wasn't going to pick the South. They were going to stay out East. If Arizona had somehow won, they were going to pick the West. Purdue is going to pick the Midwest. So we were
00:16:02
Speaker
pretty well destined for this spot for for quite some time. So, you know, that just kind of is what it is. I love our bracket. Me too. You know, it's funny. Everyone and we'll get to this also. And I'm not one of them that has us playing Kentucky and a lot of people have Kentucky beating us to go to the final. Yeah, lots.
00:16:28
Speaker
Yeah, that's right. And I don't see that happening. And like I said, we'll get to that. But I like our bracket. I think Marquette is flawed. I think that we got a pretty solid two seed in our region. Kentucky plays zero defense. They have
00:16:51
Speaker
stepped up and played a few times, but overall they haven't and they're a super young team. Duke's the four seed. I think the entire ACC is vastly overrated and you'll see that when it comes to pick time as well. I don't have a single issue with our region and we'll get to this as well, but for everybody and
00:17:14
Speaker
I'm hearing it left and right. Oh my God, we got to play A&M again. Oh my God, we've got A&M. First of all, we beat the hell out of them the first time. They got back into that game because Wade Taylor had a 28.5 hitting shots that
00:17:34
Speaker
He's never hit again and will never hit again. He was otherworldly and it's not going to happen again. We are the better team and I'm perfectly content with exactly how our region is set up. Nice. How about you, Tom? What's your perspective? Okay. I'm looking at our regional course. We got Longwood.
00:18:00
Speaker
We should get through that game. Nebraska A&M, I think, is a coin flip. I haven't seen Nebraska play. But like Bill said, you hear all this talk about, oh, you got to play A&M and all that. Well, I'm looking at their record. They lost 14 times. Exactly. So when we get into the preview, yeah, I don't know that they even get by Nebraska. Exactly. Nebraska is a two point favorite right now.
00:18:26
Speaker
And I like the fact that the NCAA always denies that they, you know, they don't have like an ulterior motive, but you got, uh, Trev Alberts, who was the AD at Nebraska, who now took the AD position at A&M. So that was kind of interesting, but yep.
00:18:42
Speaker
And I just heard Jay Wilnuts, I mean, Jay Williams on a interview Sunday saying A&M like Iowa States is a good defensive team. Well, I just went and looked it up. That's all you had to do Jay Williams. They're, they're 155th. You know, Iowa States, like we're one, Iowa States, like two and A&M 155. No, I mean, they're a good offensive rebounding team. Yeah. But don't,
00:19:11
Speaker
Call him an elite defensive team. Bill, you probably know a lot more about Wisconsin than I do, but I actually have James Madison beat Wisconsin in that first game. I got Duke advancing. I want to play Duke just for the fact that.
00:19:28
Speaker
I want to see his BT's blue bloods. Tech, they got two guys that are game time decisions. You got the seven footer Warren Washington and Darien Williams, a guard. They're game time decisions. They're like us, 10 bench. I think if they were full strength, they would, they would be Kentucky.
00:19:46
Speaker
Florida lost their seven footer. I don't know if you guys saw that gruesome injury. He's picked up, though, right? I like the Louisville kid. Yeah. What's that, Steve? He's the backup center, though, isn't he? He wasn't the starter. I believe he started the other day because he got hurt within the first two or three minutes. Maybe he did come off the bench, but it happened before the first under 16 timeout. But seven footer. Yeah, that's a shame.
00:20:11
Speaker
You know, he's out Marquette, Bill, you know, Roman of Wisconsin. You know more about Marquette than I do. But if Marquette is the team that gets through and that's the team we have to play, they'll go to the final four or I'll take that any day and twice on Sunday. Nice. Like we talked about last week, we believed everything was locked up for us even before the big club championship and we were right.
00:20:37
Speaker
No surprise, but still just super gratifying to get the recognition from the committee and receive the number two, one seed ahead of Purdue and be placed in our preferred region of the South. I also like our draw just like you guys. And I think I stated to you guys as well as on the podcast and on the boards as well. I wanted Marquette as our two seed in the region with an injured Tyler Colick and avoid
00:21:05
Speaker
kind of the Tennessee's the Arizona's the UNC's and we got it. I wanted to avoid Auburn or Kentucky as a four seed, which we did as well since Kentucky ended up being a three and I'm not convinced they're going to advance anyways. And I wanted to avoid FAU as an eight nine, which also occurred. So in all
00:21:25
Speaker
Honestly, I can't complain about anything regarding our draw. Yes, Kentucky's in our quadrant, but we wouldn't play them until the Elite Eight, and that's still a long ways off. And though I don't like the potential rematch with A&M in the second round, given the matchups,
00:21:43
Speaker
You know, our coach always does great when we play a team a second time. Plus, I am not convinced that A&M will beat Nebraska. And once we get to our brackets, I mean, teaser here, I picked Nebraska winning. So Kentucky is the one team in our quadrant that maybe gives me a little bit of pause. But again, it's strictly because of their talent level. And basically, Calipari pulling something similar off in 2014 as an 8 seed.
00:22:13
Speaker
getting to the championship game with the talent coming together right at the right time. But the difference, guys, was that that team actually played D. They were ranked 32 in adjusted defensive efficiency that season. This one, though they're exceptional on offense, they are ranked 108th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
00:22:35
Speaker
I like our bracket and I like our draw. So next, let's preview our potential two games, maybe just a word or two about Longwood, not to really discredit them in any way. But if we lose that game, there's really nothing to talk about, right? And then we can go directly into the potential A&M or Nebraska matchup and spend some more time there. Tom, you want to kick things off? Sure. I don't know a whole lot about Longwood. I had to look him up on the internet and I found out there from
00:23:04
Speaker
Farmville, Virginia. Yeah. But that's about all I know. I quickly glance at some team statistics. And their statistics are kind of similar to ours. But it's the competition Longwood plays. I think they're big South Conference. And that's it. That's all I know about them. How about you can keep going and go for kind of the next rounds in kind of projecting out, whether it's A&M or Nebraska, in your mind?
00:23:34
Speaker
Like I said, flip a coin. It's an eight, nine game. I'm not sure what the statistics are, but I remember years ago, actually a nine seed actually won more than an eight. So I had A&M beat Nebraska, but who knows? OK. And you want to talk anything about A&M and UH in a rematch? What your take is on that? I would actually prefer to play Nebraska.
00:24:04
Speaker
It doesn't matter. A&M, like Bill said, the way Taylor is not going to have the shooting game he had. Again, like he said, Steve, coach Sampson, anytime we play a team for the second time, he's a Hall of Fame coach. He makes the adjustments and yeah, I'd gladly take A&M and give him a second beating. Nice. How about you, Bill? What's your take? Well,
00:24:32
Speaker
Here's my in-depth analysis on Longwood. We're favored by 23 and a half, and Longwood's over-under on the team for the game is 51.
00:24:45
Speaker
And that's about all I needed to see. Nice. That's my analysis of Longwood. A little more to say on the second round game and the potential team. We'd be playing a slightly different A&M team. They've got different starters now. Their second leading score, Tyrese Radford, did not play against us the first time. Exactly. So both teams are different. Very different, yes.
00:25:13
Speaker
But yeah, you mentioned A&M's 20 and 14. But I was surprised that they're in an eight, nine game. I thought they would have been a bit lower. I mean, seventh place in the SEC, 20 and 14. They score 75 a game. They give up 71. Again, just like when we previewed them earlier in the year, they're a horrible shooting team. They shoot 40% from the field, 28% from three. They do have a plus nine rebounding margin.
00:25:43
Speaker
And they rebounded 40% of their missed shots. Crazy, right? Great offensive rebounding team. So if we play them, we've got to be better on the boards. The guards need to really support Robertson, Francis. Wade Taylor is their best player. 19 points, three and a half boards, four assists.
00:26:05
Speaker
and three turnovers a game. Again, he had the 28 in the second half against us. I mean, that's the reason that the game was close. Otherwise it was a blowout. For the year, he shot 31% from beyond the arc. So he's not a great perimeter shooter. He shot 37%.
00:26:25
Speaker
during the year. So we would be facing Tyrese Radford for the first time, the 6-3 guards, 16 points, 6 boards. He shoots 40% from the field and 27% from 3. So it just goes along with their poor shooting. We've talked about Henry Coleman. He averages 9 points and 6 boards for the season. Nothing for him is outside of about
00:26:49
Speaker
eight feet. He did have six points against those 12 boards. Yeah, and then they've got some other guys that have been playing both six, seven. Solomon Washington's been playing a lot more for them. Anderson Garcia, who's averaging about 10 boards a game and shooting about 55% from the field.
00:27:08
Speaker
You know, when we played them the first time, the rebounds were even 37. Tuggler had five, he had three blocks, kind of his coming out party. It was showed to everyone that, you know, this kid's going to be really good. In that first game, shed had 12 and eight assists. Cryer had 17 sharp lettuce with 21. And he also had six boards. Our guards need to play well again. And if we're playing A&M.
00:27:35
Speaker
We're just the better team. Taylor's a great player, but he's not going to do what he did the first time, not even close. And moreover, I will say that Shedd will not let him do that. I think you're going to see Shedd just take over this team in ways that he hasn't in the past. I think he's just going to put this team on his back and he's going to be the difference as we proceed
00:28:01
Speaker
through the entire bracket. If we play A&M, we're going to beat them by 10, 74, 64. Nebraska, they came in third place in the Big 10. They're favored by two over A&M. They have one mutual game with us. Early in the season, they beat Kansas State by 16. They did also beat Purdue pretty badly. I think they beat them by 16 as well. In terms of NCAA teams, they lost to Creighton by 29.
00:28:32
Speaker
to Illinois in overtime at Illinois. And then they lost to them by 11 in the big 10 tournament. They score 78 points a game. They're a good shooting team. They move the ball. Well, they shoot a lot of threes. They've also got height.
00:28:49
Speaker
Their three-point shooter, the guy that's gotten all the pub and takes a lot of their shots, leads them in scoring at 15 a game, is Tominaga. He's a Japanese 6'2 guard. He shot 47% from the field, 38% from three. We've just got to stay in his face, and we've got the guards to do that. And he will also turn the ball over.
00:29:15
Speaker
They're big. They're kind of like BYU Bryce Williams, six, seven, two guard. He's their second leading scorer. He's a 39% three point shooter, 44% from the field, 13 points, five and a half boards. But he also turns the ball over.
00:29:31
Speaker
And then their third guard that they start off in is CJ Wilcher, 6'5". So, you know, 6'5 and 6'7 and what would be their two guards and small forward. They've got some height and he's a 40% three point shooter. Their fourth leading scorer is a guy from the Netherlands. His last name is Mast. It's like, right? And he's actually a good player. He's a big guy.
00:30:01
Speaker
12.5 points, 7.5 boards, three assists. He leads them in assists and he shoots 35% from three, but he is also prone to turning the ball over. So that's an area where we're going to be able to
00:30:14
Speaker
handle them, and because they're guard heavy in terms of their scoring, that plays into our strength. When they played Kansas State, and again, it's early in the season, so take that for what it's worth, but they beat Kansas State by 16 and held K-State to 12 in the second half.
00:30:33
Speaker
But that looked to me like an outlier for Kansas State. The field goal percentage was next to nothing. Nebraska can play with anybody. They beat Purdue. They beat Kansas State. They're a solid team. If they've got open shots, they're going to hit them. That's what we need to shut down. And that's what we do. We pressure the perimeter shooters. We play them. I have us beating them 75-62. OK. So either way,
00:31:01
Speaker
We're just fine. We should advance. Yeah. I'm in agreement. If we look at round one.
00:31:07
Speaker
Again, we're number two in Ken Palm. Longwood is at a lowly 157. Not going to go into advanced analytics for this one, but they suggest via Ken Palm that it should be a 19 point win. I think it should be more, if not for hopefully our intent to rest guys like Roberts and Shed. But now looking into round two, Texas A&M is 44th in Ken Palm. Nebraska is at 28. If you compare the two,
00:31:37
Speaker
A&M is 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency. Nebraska is 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the flip side, A&M is number 57 in adjusted defensive efficiency. And Nebraska is number 36 in adjusted offensive efficiency. And Nebraska is going to try to speed things up versus A&M.
00:31:58
Speaker
If I look at A&M as a potential opponent, there are cheap imitation of us in almost every single way. They're just not as good. Terrible shooting team, best offensive rebounding team in the country, protect the ball reasonably well. They try to defend every shot. But difference on D from us is that they also don't really emphasize blocking shots or stealing the ball. Nebraska is a very balanced team that's excellent on both offense and defense.
00:32:26
Speaker
Not the most athletic bunch, but I think folks are sleeping on them with most predicting a Texas A&M win over Nebraska. But Nebraska shoots well from both two-point range and three-point range. They don't turn the ball over too much. They're good in that ranked 96th in the country. Score extremely well from three-point range, just like BYU, like you mentioned, Bill.
00:32:50
Speaker
and defend every shot on D. I'm actually picking Nebraska to beat Texas A&M as well by three. And it's a bonus because quite honestly, from a matchup perspective, I really like the matchup with us for round two.
00:33:04
Speaker
If we end up playing A&M, it will be a dogfight, given the two programs emphasize the same things. And we tend to struggle a bit more against like-minded teams like ISU. But A&M is just not the same caliber on offense or defense across the board. And we always do extremely well second time, like I said, when we play a team. Plus, there's no chance, as you both have mentioned, Wade Taylor shooting the way he did in game one.
00:33:32
Speaker
with Nebraska. They emphasize the three on offense like you had highlighted Bill number 14th in the country in three-point offense while we defend the three exceptionally well ranked 14th in the country. Nebraska is good at protecting ball but again not great so I think that they will crumble a bit having never faced the kind of pressure they will experience versus us.
00:33:55
Speaker
They're also not a great defensive rebounding team, ranked 223rd. So it will give us an opportunity to feast on offensive rebounds. Nebraska also doesn't pressure the ball much, ranked 224th in turnover percentage D, or block shots close to the rim, ranking 285th in the country. A perfect matchup for us if Nebraska advances.
00:34:19
Speaker
Ken Palm, if I'm doing the math correctly, would predict roughly a nine point win for us versus Nebraska. But I'm forecasting a bigger margin, maybe a 15 point win, 78, 63. Next, how about we all provide some comments on the overall bracket in general, the top seeds, the draws in each of the quadrants. Also, maybe highlight some of the upset predictions you guys have in your respective draws. Bill, you want to kick things off?
00:34:49
Speaker
Sure. And by the way, I thought we might hit the South region. That's why I didn't give a prediction, but I do have A&M just barely sneaking this one out. I really had to spend some time on it. And ultimately what it came down to for me was competition played. And I just think the SEC is better than the big, the competition just nudged A&M.
00:35:17
Speaker
Over the edge for me, but oh over over Nebraska based on based on how many Predictions I've gotten wrong this year that that actually bodes well for Nebraska Yeah, if you go through the bracket I have you con coming out of the East and I have them Beating a dope don't pick your final four yet. We're gonna the kind of the final quick segment We'll pick our final floors and then our winners
00:35:46
Speaker
Yeah, so go all the way through to maybe a sweet 16, right? Okay, I've got UConn, I've got FAU, and I had to think about this one for a while, because I don't think, Steve, that FAU is that good this year. They're good, but their defense is significantly worse than it was last year. I do have them winning. I have San Diego State.
00:36:11
Speaker
beating UAB. I have Auburn over Yale. I have BYU over Duquesne, Illinois favorites. I do have a tent seat here. I really like Drake. I really, really like Drake and I have them over Washington State and of course Iowa State. Next round I have, I
00:36:33
Speaker
Barely like Iowa state over Drake. I think Drake is a really solid team. I think BYU is going to beat Illinois. I have Auburn over San Diego state and UConn, then I've UConn over Auburn and Iowa state over BYU. And, uh, that's one of two regions where I have.
00:36:55
Speaker
the one and two seeds. And then I guess if we're going all the way to the final four, do you want me to give that? No, just just give your initial thoughts on just overall draws the region's upsets that you're thinking. The West is where I think it's going to be insane. I've got Carolina winning two games and then they're gone. Okay, I've got Grand Canyon.
00:37:19
Speaker
Nice. Winning more than probably most. I'll just tell you now, I have New Mexico going to the Final Four. Oh my god. Look, there's a double digit seeds that go every year. It's almost crazy not to pick a high seed. Cool. Very cool. I think New Mexico is
00:37:42
Speaker
vastly underrated. And they're an 11 seed. I think Nevada is going to be Steve Alford's team, by the way, is going to beat Arizona in the second round. Wow. Nevada is a 10. I think they beat Arizona and send them home. So in the sweet 16, we're going to have Grand Canyon, who I have beating Alabama.
00:38:07
Speaker
We have Grand Canyon, New Mexico, Nevada, and Carolina. I'm going to start calling you Mr. Mountain West Conference, man. Well, yeah, there are a couple other Mountain West teams that I like. But that's the crazy region. Our region, Tom, I'm in agreement with you. And I know all my people in Wisconsin that listen to this are going to want to castrate me. But I do have James Madison winning that game.
00:38:36
Speaker
Up until about maybe 45 minutes ago, I had James Madison beating Duke, because I think Duke is overrated. And maybe it's because I want to see us play Duke in Dallas and put it to them that I ended up taking Duke. But I think James Madison could beat Duke. I have Taq beating Kentucky.
00:38:56
Speaker
I think Kentucky's road ends after one win. Steve, you were talking about Kentucky when they were in 8C. But if you go back just a few years, Kentucky also got knocked out by St. Francis in the first round. So recently, they've been prone to losing early. And I think McCaslin is a good coach, and I think that takes care of
00:39:20
Speaker
Kentucky, I think Florida is going to go down. It seems like at least one of the play and winners does well every year. So I like probably Colorado.
00:39:33
Speaker
And I struggled a bit with Marquette versus Tech. And I have Marquette winning that game, but I thought for a long time about Purdue TCU. TCU's not nearly as bad as they looked against us, but I went with Purdue. Kansas, Kansas is going to go down to Gonzaga in the second game. I had no doubt about it in my mind.
00:39:58
Speaker
And here's my other Mountain West darling. I love Colorado state. I really like Colorado state. So second round Adios, Tennessee. And here's the thing. I've Colorado state matching up with Creighton and Colorado state beat Creighton by 21 earlier year. So, I mean, they took care of them. I don't.
00:40:26
Speaker
see that happening again. I think Colorado State does not beat them a second time, but Colorado State is a very good team and could advance, but I have Creighton winning that game and we'll leave it there. I've got some upsets and yeah, it is kind of slanted toward the Mountain West. Yeah. I bet you, Tom, what are your thoughts on the overall brackets and the different quadrants and such?
00:40:55
Speaker
I'll start with the South region and the first game that catches my eye here is Wisconsin versus James Madison. James Madison 31 and three happened to catch a couple of games during their conference tournament. I'll go back to what Gail Robinson has said a couple of times on his podcast is that, you know, back when the U of H was in the American athletic, didn't get a whole lot of respect, even though he won over 30 games. And he said, you know, we won 30 or 31, 32 games.
00:41:25
Speaker
We're used to winning. We know how to win and James Madison is talented. Yeah. I have them winning over Wisconsin. I would have James Madison over Duke. I had my white out here. I had James Madison first and then because I want to see us play Duke.
00:41:45
Speaker
That's the only reason I want to see his play. Is this an exact repeat of what I just said? It is. Yeah. What's that? You must have had me on mute as well. I said exactly what you're saying word for word. Yeah. I mean, secretly I want James Madison to win, but.
00:42:03
Speaker
I really want us to play Duke is, you know, we both know, we all know about that secret scrimmage a couple of years ago where it was called off with like 12 minutes left. And I think we all know the reason after watching Duke cry about court storming and
00:42:20
Speaker
Uh, all this kind of stuff, you know, and John Shire apologizing to the student section for losing while the Duke section is throwing water bottles at North Carolina. Anyway, tech versus NC state. That's another, another game that catches my attention. You know, tech, two game time decisions, Warren Washington, seven footer, Darian Williams guard. I still have them beating NC state, NC state's interesting story. They stole a bid.
00:42:49
Speaker
They weren't going to be in the tournament. They had to win five games in five days. They got DJ burns. He's got to weigh over 300 pounds. He's a, he's a lefty. Yeah. No truth to the rumor about his physical and his blood test came back. Crisco, he's a lefty. He's a really, really good touch.
00:43:13
Speaker
He can't play a whole lot of minutes. You know, he goes in there and he plays a couple of minutes and they get him out. Another thing about NC State, all five starters came from other programs. Maybe that's just a situation where they're jelling with those five new guys. If tech was healthy, I'd have them beating Kentucky. Florida Marquette, that really doesn't catch my eye that much. Here's two down here in the Midwest. I have McNeese State at 30 and three, Will Wade.
00:43:43
Speaker
over Gonzaga in that first round game. I also have another one, Samford, 29 and five coached by a guy named Bucky McMillian. He's a young guy who won like seven state titles in high school basketball. And he went straight from the high school ranks. Samford, Samford, if you haven't seen them, they play about 10 guys. They press full court.
00:44:08
Speaker
And they play up tempo. And I think that could be Kansas's kryptonite with their thin bench. And Dickinson, as we all know, is not the most mobile guy. And Samford, they, they put the pedal to the metal. I have that game going over to the East. That's pretty much chalk for me in the East. Okay. No, no games in the East really.
00:44:36
Speaker
really jump out at me. It would be an interesting matchup. If Drake can beat Washington State, you'd have Drake from Des Moines, Iowa versus Iowa State. And speaking of Iowa State, their first round game is against South Dakota State. South Dakota State's coach, Eric Henderson, he was one of TJ's assistants when TJ was the head coach at South Dakota State. So it's teacher versus pupil in that game.
00:45:04
Speaker
And by the way, just a little personal tidbit. Last year was my last year of teaching and my principal was a teammate of Eric Henderson when they played for Greg McDermott at Wayne State University in Nebraska. Going down to the West, Bill, like you, I like Grand Canyon and I like Mountain West basketball. I don't know what it is about Mountain West basketball. Maybe it's because I'm hard up for a game at night. You know, it's like 10, 10, 30.
00:45:35
Speaker
I haven't got my basketball fix yet. And here comes the Mountain West conference. They got rabid fans. They, their teams play a fun style, but I have Grand Canyon. Beating St. Mary's the Lopes. I don't know if you ever seen their student section there. There's something else. Grand Canyon student section. Billy, I know you like New Mexico. I almost put them beating Clemson. I probably should have had them. I watched New Mexico play a few times.
00:46:05
Speaker
They have a guy that would be Galen Robinson's doppelganger. Think of Galen Robinson. Not only does Jalen House look like him, and he's built like him, but think about Galen Robinson being given the green light from Kelvin Sampson, and that would be Jalen House.
00:46:26
Speaker
He doesn't always make the best decisions, but he's all over the court. He's one of those guys that can shoot you in a game, but he also can shoot you out of a game. And they got Jamal Mashford Jr. I like New Mexico, exciting. And then another Mountain West Conference team, Billy alluded to Nevada.
00:46:45
Speaker
Under Steve Alford, they're led by a guard. I like that Lucas kid. I think his name is Jared Lucas. He played for Oregon State. We played him in the Elite Eight. I think it was.
00:46:57
Speaker
a couple of years ago, but I like Nevada squad. I have them over Dayton. I wouldn't be surprised if Nevada beat Arizona, you know, given Arizona's track record past couple of years, Long Beach state and Arizona. That's an interesting matchup simply for the fact that Dan Monson got fired before the conference tournament started. I guess he agreed to part ways and then Long Beach state goes on to win the, uh, their conference tournaments. So they're, they're going to dance in it.
00:47:26
Speaker
thought that was a interesting decision, but those are the games that catch my eye. Nice. And we even have a couple of playing games that I think that should be a good match. Another Mountain West team Boise State versus Colorado. Colorado has two projected first round graphics. I think they're both freshmen, but I like that Boise State, Colorado matchup. And then I like
00:47:53
Speaker
Another Mountain West team, Colorado State versus Virginia. It'll be good. Virginia is known for their pec line defense. Colorado State coach, Nico Medved. They're very good offensively. They run Princeton offense. I wouldn't say true Princeton, but a lot of Princeton concepts. So when you don't have a whole lot of time to, you know, we haven't seen them yet. Could be an interesting game for Virginia to defend. All right.
00:48:20
Speaker
Virginia has no business in the field. Colorado States take care of that. I thought there were two schools that really jumped out at me that I thought shouldn't be in there. Virginia was one and Michigan State was another one. They were 19 and 14 and then they got a nine seed. I don't know. Yeah. They get a little bit of history playing a role by the selection committee.
00:48:46
Speaker
The one thing I was going to mention before was, Tom, when you mentioned C.J. Burns at NC State, he's mentioned this a couple of times that he grew up, and particularly for the people in Houston listening to this, he grew up a massive Akima Lajuan fan and tried to model his game after him. He said the only problem was God gave him Zach Randolph's body.
00:49:13
Speaker
That's pretty funny. I mean, it's interesting that you guys are both high on the Mountain West Conference. I live out here on the West Coast. I'm not a fan of the Mountain West Conference. I felt like they were overrated this year, so we'll see. Talk about Virginia getting in. They were a bit stealer at Michigan State, and then we had some teams that won some conference tournaments that took bits. But I was bummed when Indiana State
00:49:42
Speaker
Didn't get in. They have a really good coach, Josh Shirts, who's got a real, it's an interesting story. He's about five foot eight. He grew up as a ranked junior tennis player. He ended up playing JUCO basketball because he gave up tennis, started playing basketball and eventually made us all the way up. And now he's, you know, he's a hot name in the, in the coaching circles. Yeah. I mean, from a brackets perspective,
00:50:11
Speaker
I completely agreed with the four number one seeds and the order and regions in which they were all placed. I thought the committee did a reasonable job with picking the teams this year. Only a few surprises for me as I just highlighted Mountain West Conference getting six bids. Wow. And then the Big East only getting three. That was surprising. UVA, who actually I thought deserved to be in, getting in before St. John's or Seton Hall. That was a bit of a surprise.
00:50:41
Speaker
Oh you not getting in, though I'm only missing the dollars the Big 12 would have gotten with them participating. I didn't shed a tear with them being out. From a Brackets perspective, I felt Yukon got the toughest draw by far in the East after landing the overall number one seed.
00:51:00
Speaker
Of course, I'm not sad about that either. But boy, that road that they've got, potentially FAU in round two, Auburn in the sweet 16. And I was trying to avoid Auburn within our bracket. ISU in the elite eight. And I thought ISU was the best two seat in the country.
00:51:19
Speaker
Man, if Yukon makes it out from the East and gets that final four spot, they've earned it. If you look at the West, it's really the quadrant of offense with UNC, Arizona, Baylor, Bama, New Mexico, and Grand Canyon. Purdue, I thought, had the easiest draw with Tennessee, Creighton, and KU. But I still wouldn't trade our draw with theirs based on matchups.
00:51:45
Speaker
Upsets for me that I picked in my draw include in round one, I've got Michigan State actually over Mississippi State. I also have James Madison winning as well, just like you guys did. TCU over Utah State. I've got McNeese over the Zags.
00:52:06
Speaker
That's a 12-5 one there. I'm picking Oregon over South Carolina. I've also got BYU over Illinois. I don't know how that one will go. Agreed. Yeah. I've got St. Mary's actually over Bama. TCU over Purdue. I think they're going to run them off the court. And in the Sweet 16, I've actually got Baylor over Arizona.
00:52:31
Speaker
I do have Kentucky over Marquette and I like our chances versus Kentucky. And then I do have Creighton over Tennessee. Now, finally, let's each quickly give our final four predictions in championship game winner. Also just some key points for you around rationale behind those picks as well. Tom, you want to go first?
Final Four Predictions and National Championship Hopes
00:52:55
Speaker
Miter boring. I went all chalk, number one C's. U of H, Purdue, UNC, and UConn. I have U of H over Purdue to get to the final. I have UConn over UNC, and then I have U of H over UConn in the final. Really no
00:53:14
Speaker
Rationale, it probably isn't going to happen. We're all for number one seed to make it. But I'd like to see Iowa State beat UConn if they get that far just because they're, you know, a big 12 brethren. Yeah. The thing about the tournament is called Marsh Madness for a reason. You know, there's going to be upsets.
00:53:32
Speaker
all sorts of crazy stuff you know but you just can't predict where it's gonna come from you just you just never know i mean who would have thought florida atlantic would have made the final four i know san diego state would have made the final game i mean whoever would have thought that you know not me yeah i like those picks how about you bill well i've got u of h
00:53:55
Speaker
I've got Creighton beating Gonzaga to go to the final four. You guys have Gonzaga going out early. I think with an injured and overrated Kansas, I think that opens things up a little bit for Gonzaga and I think they.
00:54:11
Speaker
make their way through, but they'll lose to Creighton. So it's U of H Creighton, Connecticut, and I'm only taking Connecticut over Iowa State because it's being played in Boston. And by the way, I disagree with what you said, Steve, about the committee getting it right. Iowa State should have been a one. As obnoxious as Iowa State's fans were in Kansas City, Iowa State should have been a one seed.
00:54:38
Speaker
They're better than Carolina. They're certainly better than any of the two seeds. And I think they should have been one in the West. But that said, I have Yukon. And then, like I mentioned earlier, I've got New Mexico beating Grand Canyon to go to the Final Four. I've got Connecticut over New Mexico. I've got the Cougs over Creighton. And like Tom, I've got the Cougs over Connecticut in Phoenix.
00:55:07
Speaker
Nice, nice. So for me, I actually have, I have ISU beating Yukon to reach the Final Four. So I've got great respect for them. I've got UH making it. I've got UNC making it out of the West. And I also have Creighton in my Final Four. And I've got UNC playing U of H and U of H winning the national championship.
00:55:34
Speaker
Now, to be honest, I will also say that I believe UConn is the best team in the country, but just based on match-ups and things like that, we'll see. We'll see where it goes. So that's it for this episode 22 of the No Conference for Old Men podcast.
Conclusion and Call to Action
00:55:50
Speaker
Hope you all enjoyed it, and again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via the Republican Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football.
00:56:04
Speaker
as the only basketball centric podcast. We're at the Goku's dot com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way. We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account. No conference rolled, Ben.
00:56:18
Speaker
Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout for our Sweet 16 episode next week, where we'll again try to publish it on Tuesday ahead of all the games starting Thursday. So please be on the lookout to download and listen as the episode drops. Take care, everyone.