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Baylor Carved Up in Key Win + "How Good is this UH Offense?"
89 Plays2 months ago
Welcome to Episode #43 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
Our Houston Cougars are now 20-4 & 12-1 in the XII after a workman-like win on the road vs Colorado & then a carving up of Baylor to now be back in sole possession of 1st in the XII. Houston continued to build upon their balanced offense by further incorporating X-Factor Terrance Arceneaux into the offensive sets. Next up is a tricky West Coast swing through Arizona vs AZ & ASU. The 3 Old Men preview the games & then provide their thoughts on the other side of the ball to determine "How Good is This Season's UH Offense"?
Please have a listen as the 3 Old Men weigh in & discuss the topic of the week, as well as provide some quick-hit game summaries and previews.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on gocoogs.com/old-men/
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Transcript
Introduction to the Podcast Episode
00:00:09
Speaker
folks, to episode number 43 of the Real Conference for Old Men podcast, podcast where three real guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well. And proud members of the gocoos.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider. We're here today with all three old men, Tom Lydiak, former coach, Bill Walker, former player, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy for this episode.
Houston's Recent Winning Streak
00:00:32
Speaker
Well, as the team gets healthier with Francis and Sharp working their way back into the rotation, this UH team is back on a three game winning streak and sole possession of the Big 12 standings after wins over Colorado on the road, 69 to 59, and then Baylor at home for a key Big Monday W, 76 to 65. That was not as close as the score would indicate.
00:00:53
Speaker
No nights off with the Cougars in this no conference for Old Men Big 12, with now a road trip through Arizona this week to play Arizona and Arizona State to hold on to the Big 12 lead.
Debating Houston's Offense vs Defense
00:01:04
Speaker
In the critical win over Baylor, Houston showed the potential in this team on offense, scoring a highly efficient 76 points in the win where everyone got to play. But we we still see fans actually state on various message boards how our offense can still never really measure up to our D. So the debate this week is basically how good is this UH offense in 2025?
00:01:28
Speaker
So let's get into it.
Analysis of Houston vs Colorado Game
00:01:29
Speaker
In dissecting our two critical wins this week, let's begin with a quick postgame analysis of the workman like win over Colorado on the road. Then we'll transition to your thoughts on the big Monday surgical carving of Baylor. Let's start with you first, Tom. What were some of the things you saw from a coach's perspective in the Colorado game?
00:01:48
Speaker
Well, I think Colorado was 0-11 going into the game. So we we did exactly what you're supposed to do to an 0-11 team is we got out there with with a W, ah injury free. Didn't have Emmanuel again. JVA a was back even though he picked up three quick fouls from ah right when he came back in. I'm ah i'm not sure how how long he was in there before you he got his third one. But the game started off the first.
00:02:17
Speaker
Probably four, four and a half minutes. It looked like it was going to be a blowout. Uh, they didn't score until 1534 left in the half. We were up 14 to three. Even Kelvin was smiling on the sideline and then the mood turned dark. They go on 11 over and they tied up.
00:02:35
Speaker
This game reminded me a lot like the Vegas game versus Notre Dame. You were watching the game. You know U of H is going to win, but you never can get too comfortable. ah You're waiting for the knockout punch. The knockout punch me ah really never comes. but That's where we're at with this program when you get a 10-point win on the road in a conference game. And it leaves a lot of fans, not me necessarily, but it leaves a lot of ah fans, I wouldn't say grumbling, but you know they're finding the bunion on Miss America again. I did think we fouled too much this game.
00:03:15
Speaker
um But it was a win. I heard Kelvin on his radio show say, when you go back at the end of the year and there's that W next to that game, he goes, there's not an asterisk there. He says they don't draw pictures to like illustrate how how the win was. It's a W. and That's what good teams are supposed to do against 0 and 11 teams.
00:03:39
Speaker
And by the way, Colorado is a team that beat UConn early in the year. you know Iowa State it had had a little bit of a struggle versus them, where I think Colorado had the lead, I think, with eight, nine minutes left in
Houston's Strategy Against Baylor
00:03:54
Speaker
the game. So Colorado, even though they're winless, they're capable. But we did what we were supposed to do and got out there. It was good to rest a manual.
00:04:05
Speaker
um You know, for this game, get his a little bit more healed and ready for that Baylor game. Yeah, exactly. Bill, how about your views of the Colorado win from a player's perspective?
00:04:17
Speaker
ah Closer win than most expected, including myself. But as I said last week, one week we're we're battling through a number of games in a relatively short time span, and we keep winning. And while Colorado has a very limited offensive team, they did have one great player, Julian Hammond, who I'd highlighted last week. He scored over 37% of Colorado's points. yeah Other than Hammond's 22,
00:04:44
Speaker
ah including five of seven on some really deep threes. Nobody else on that team scored more than six points. Despite what what some might say about the defense on the Hammond, it really was a ah another good defensive game. Kelvin has three staples, defense rebounding and turnovers. We played solid D, we out rebounded a smaller team 38-26, including 18-8 on the offensive boards. and You can see that the guards are trying to be more aggressive off the dribble. And that caused a couple more turnovers, even though we only committed nine, we might otherwise have committed fewer than usual. Cryer and Wilson had five of the nine, but this was also a game where Sharp sat. Javier played four minutes and, you know, Roberts, Arcido, Yuza, and Cryer averaged 33 minutes for the game. ah So a lot of floor time for the starters. and so
00:05:44
Speaker
You may expect a a turnover or or two more yeah in what was basically a six man rotation that we played in Wilson off the bench. You know, what I saw was that you sign is and needs to be running the the show as much as possible. The great game, 12 points, four, five boards, six assists and one turnover in 37 minutes, which seems to be the norm. ah Roberts was unstoppable inside shot nine of 11 from the floor.
00:06:14
Speaker
for 20 points. I thought that he could have gone to a more and he could have scored 40 at he had taken more shots. Arsenal was aggressive offensively, chipped in with 15 on five of nine shooting. And, you know, despite an off shooting game by Cryer, who's battling a a knuckle injury on on his shooting pinky, yeah he he he Still played, played. We almost shot 50% from the field in this game. Thanks, Juwan. And 40% from three. And yeah, I could get into.
00:06:49
Speaker
more about our on-ball defense and switching versus a ball dominant point guard solid shooting point guard as we have and we will continue to face some of some of them but we could get to that ah later overall solid road win ah versus a very hard playing team.
00:07:10
Speaker
Yeah, completely agree. From an analytics perspective, looking at this Colorado game, I stated in last week's episode that I viewed it as a just win and move on type of game, especially with sharp still sitting out. And Francis just coming back on offense as has appeared to be the cases of late with whomever we play guys, Colorado was blistering from three point line shooting 39% from three and ending up with an effective vehicle percentage at 51% of bit disappointing for us, quite honestly, coming from the worst shooting team in the conference. Fortunately, we were able to manage the game throughout by controlling the paint inside all and forcing turnovers on 21% of their possessions. For us, we were
00:07:51
Speaker
really very workman-like on offense, 54% effective vehicle percentage, 40% from three-point range. Plus, we back that up with our offensive rebound rate at almost 40% for the game. Defensively, we have definitely noticed some slippage as of late, especially when defending the arc, where every team we play seems to be having a season-high shooting night versus us from three-point range. But fortunately, we're not a one-trick pony on deep, where we continue to force turnovers and block shots to disrupt our opponents each game.
00:08:21
Speaker
Now for the big Monday showdown versus Baylor that I flew in for. Both Sharp and Francis were fully back for this game and we had our offense humming with very bound scoring and minutes distribution in the 76 to 55 win. Let's start with you first, Bill. What were your thoughts from a player's perspective versus Baylor?
00:08:39
Speaker
This was a game I predicted us to win by 14, 74, 60. And while I was actually pretty close to 76, 65 win, I shouldn't have been. ah We could have easily won this game by 25 and we're up more than 20, well into the second half.
00:08:57
Speaker
What's crazy is that we dominated this game, despite record numbers being Scott versus us, versus a Calvin coach, Baylor shot an absolutely scorching 58% from the field and 60% from three. and And the game was still never really in doubt at any point, and was even a blowout throughout the second half. And you know why, you might ask, especially against a good team?
00:09:25
Speaker
Well, I'm happy to tell you. First, we moved the ball exceptionally well, resulting in 17 assists, which is a very, very impressive number. Secondly, we turned them over a whopping 15 times, which is a lot for any team, but for a guard heavy team, that was really impressive. And lastly, we shot well ourselves, 51% from the field, 42% from three.
00:09:52
Speaker
And we only committed seven turnovers. The result of such a ah really nice shooting game is something I'm not sure I've ever witnessed. 42 total rebounds for the game. 22 for us and 20 for Baylor. I mean, you just don't encounter that. And the reason, of course, is no missed shots. yeah You know, you don't miss shots. There aren't available rebounds.
00:10:18
Speaker
A really balanced attack for us, which is great. We had five and double figures and Wilson was the sixth scoring nine. Their 1-3-1 defense, which they play a ton, helped.
00:10:32
Speaker
limit Robert's touches and held him to only seven shots from the field, but clearly everyone else stepped up and I'll continue and I do it almost every week to sing Yuzhan's praises. 34 minutes, 12 points, ah despite going one to five from three, didn't have a great outside shooting game, but 12 points, six assists and you guessed it, zero turnovers.
00:10:59
Speaker
I keep expecting his turnovers to to go up slightly following the fact that he's really been handling the ball much more aggressively and attacking since the West Virginia game. But it's just simply not the case. And it's been really impressive. You know, Tuggler was aggressive grabbing eight of the 22 boards prior hit four of seven threes, which was good to see but based on the the injured knuckle. Wilson played as his usual solid game on both ends. And Arsenault, despite some questionable
00:11:36
Speaker
decisions with the ball throughout, especially the the first half of the game, hit four of six shots and, and helped in terms of our balance scoring. Really, really balanced production on both ends of the floor and, and, uh, you know, a really solid win versus Baylor. Yeah, exactly. Tom, how about your perspective from a coaches here?
00:12:00
Speaker
Well, Baylor was playing their first game without their big post guy. I think he's like 6'10". Josh, I have no clue how to pronounce his last name. I just know his first name is Josh. They didn't have any prep time because I think they played on Saturday also. They lose him on Saturday. but You have one day to prepare. So they were kind of going through some I'm filling out process with a new lineup going small. I think at one time, O'Mear was their tallest guy out there it's ah at'7". They tried their zone defense.
00:12:35
Speaker
Uh, I kind of call it a one, one, three, it looks like a one, three, one, they, they bring their wings up there, but it's not the old Baylor zone where Scott Drew would recruit three guys, like Joe, Joe Tuggler that had the reach was like a seven foot six reach. Uh, and they would just almost be able to go from sideline to sideline touching fingers. So we just shredded that zone. I mean, you've got any shot we wanted, whether it's inside or our outside.
00:13:03
Speaker
Like Bill said, we were up by 25. And after that, everything else that happened was purely academic. We just, we torch them. I think the score was like 70, 71 to 46. A couple of things I humorous things I wrote down is we were up ah nine and about the 10 minute Mark and Malik dismisses second consecutive shot. JVA gets the rebound.
00:13:31
Speaker
And he throws a dagger to eman E-man, E-man nails a three and now we're up by 12. And then Oozan comes down and he makes a, I think it's almost consecutive and once where he got fouled on a drive. And, and, uh, I put down here, TV Teddy took over for a couple of possessions. Uh, uh, what'd he do? We had three straight calls for us. Uh, one was where Baylor steps on the sideline. Uh, Oozan gets fouled, uh, by Omer.
00:14:01
Speaker
Overall, this is game.
Kansas State vs Arizona Recap
00:14:03
Speaker
I was ah concerned about heading into the game. Yeah, me too. Um, you know, cause they score Baylor score 60 points in the second half versus Kansas. And you know, and I know Steven, you and I were talking about how good Kansas defense had been. Yeah. But anytime you can score 60 points on Kansas and in a half, you know, you got some firepower there, but underrated defense, I think it was mostly LJ on Robert Wright, the third.
00:14:29
Speaker
He did not look good. And that's a lot of it has to do with our defense. Kelvin was pumping up edge comb. And I think he was doing that on purpose. if Kelvin in the pregame had mentioned that, you know, edge comb will be the best player on the floor. And I'm sure he's just saying that to to jack his guys up. He's probably not saying that exact same thing in the clothes, the clothes locker room.
00:14:56
Speaker
Uh, you know, five star much Ballyhoo guy. And he had a he played a little bit of impact well yeah he had a little impact on the game, but overall it was, uh, like Bill said, the ball was moving. We were sharing the sugar, you know, the ball wasn't sticking.
00:15:14
Speaker
I'm not sure how the stats ended up, but at one time with a couple of minutes left, we had five players with 10 plus points. And I'll give you another Kelvin quote, you come to U of H you play basketball, not to be a superstar because in our program, the team is the superstar. We're at the point in our program where we're never gonna just rely on a guy to get 25 or 30 a night. It's almost like death by 1000 cuts.
00:15:39
Speaker
you know Instead of just one big karate chop, ah we just keep coming at you with with different players. Yeah. Hey, Tom. just Just so everyone out there knows, in case they they may not be familiar with them, TV Teddy is the official Ted Valentine, who who definitely likes the spotlight. yeah he had her He had her game Saturday, too, I believe, against Colorado.
00:16:07
Speaker
He did, he did you're right. You're right. That's right. I forgot that. Yeah. And for some reason, TV Teddy was banned from the NCAA tournament for about four years. He didn't get to do it. And I don't know what was going on on there, but he got the nickname TV Teddy, but I think he's toned it down quite a bit.
00:16:25
Speaker
Yeah, he has. I would agree. I think he's probably gotten that feedback as a number of coaches were complaining about him a few years ago. He officiated the ah Arizona K-State game last night as well.
00:16:37
Speaker
Yep, which we'll get to.
Preview of Upcoming Houston Games
00:16:39
Speaker
Now for this game, from an advanced analytics perspective, especially on offense, this was just an extremely hot shooting night from both sides. From a pure shooting perspective, you look at Baylor and honestly, they just carved us up, ending at almost 70% effective field goal percentage while shooting 60% from three, 56.5% from two point range. It is, you know, Bill hit question as well, how in the world did we win so comfortably?
00:17:07
Speaker
Because quite honestly, with less than six minutes left in the second half, we were up by 25, 71 to 46, as ah Tom had mentioned. Bottom line is we forced turnovers on 26.5% of their possessions and limited them to only 20% offensive rebounds, where they had been actually over 36% for the season.
00:17:28
Speaker
Then on offense, we too were blistering from the field with effective field goal percentage at over 60% for the game, shooting 42% from three-point range and 59% from two-point range. For you, Age, I just loved seeing the distribution of minutes with everyone healthy for a tough team, where no one played more than 34 minutes and that was Oozan. And as I had talked about last week, wanting to play Arsenal more down the final stretch of the games that we've got left,
00:17:55
Speaker
We again made our biggest run to get to our 25 point lead while he was in the lineup playing the forward position. The advanced analytics also backed up his cellar play where he was by far the game higher player box score plus minus at a plus 14.2 for the game. So big win versus Baylor and the team should be well rested for the Arizona Sway to follow pair that up with where Arizona lost last night to Kansas state. And we are back in sole possession in first place in the big 12 standings. Now, as we quickly pivot to our other big 12 game, we zeroed in on how about each of your elevator pitches on the Arizona at KSU game last night where Kansas state held on for the 73 to 70 win. Tom, you want to go first? Yeah, before I talk about this, that game, one more thing about the Baylor game, you might've caught it on on TV.
00:18:48
Speaker
But hats off to JVA for making two free throws. ah yeah I think we were up by 11 points and ah Baylor had I think ah seven or 18 fouls.
00:18:59
Speaker
JVA catches ball at the top of the key and whoever was guarding him came out immediately just fouled him. Yep. That's putting him on the line on purpose. TV camera picked up Scott Drew yelling to his players saying good foul. And, uh, you know, good catch. JVA proceeds to knock down a one-on-one. So, you know what hats off to JVA. Not a very nice thing for Scott through to say, but anyway, getting back to the game case state Arizona last night.
00:19:28
Speaker
That was a heck of a game. Arizona two for 22, I think from three point land. That's either good news or bad news for us on Saturday. I don't know which, you know, it seems like every team we play shoots to three, they shoot out of their minds. Case states on a roll.
00:19:48
Speaker
They've got it going. Uh, you know, and who knows that this might be their peak. Uh, we might go back a month later and, you know, and see that's their peak. It'll be remained to be seen whether they can keep up this, uh, this stretch of play, but I did see their schedule. And I think the next like five or six games are very, very, uh, winnable games for them, especially the way they're playing but Doug McDaniel. Got to love that little guy. He's like, I know in high school, he was like five, nine and a buck 45. I'm not sure what he is now. And.
00:20:17
Speaker
comes from Michigan. but He was a suspended last year for some reason. I'm not sure what it was, but whatever beef that Jerome Tang and Doug had early in the year, they must have. I know Tang hasn't really talked about it, but something must have started clicking. Coleman Hawkins, you know, he was playing more like Sadie Hawkins ah for a while. ah Now he's I wouldn't say he's playing like the $2 million dollar man he is because he's not worth that much, but he's not killing them like he did when we played him. He was almost like our best player when we played him last time, but he set up his play and they're just getting contributions, so you know, right and left from, ah from their lineup. ah And they have a lot of confidence ah ah right now. It was a great game.
00:21:04
Speaker
It looked for a while there that K state had lost their grip on it. And then they come back and they finished in the flurry and gave Arizona their second loss. So, yep. So it's up for a great game on Saturday. Yep. Looking forward to it. How about you, Bill from a player's perspective? Well, I'm unhappy. I'm actually very unhappy. ah Arizona lost one. I'd like to have Arizona coming off a win and not have any type of chip on their shoulder when we come in.
00:21:33
Speaker
to even though they lost and they're now in second place, if, and this is a huge if, if Arizona can beat us, which which they won't.
00:21:47
Speaker
They're right back in first place because we'll be tied and we play them once and they win the head-to-head matchup So the the game on Saturday really is for first place right now. Yeah, Arizona's got some tough games They're at Kansas. They're at Iowa State. They're gonna lose more games. So I really don't care that much about Arizona, but I do wish they would have I know that there are a lot of people most people feel exactly the opposite and Arizona turned the ball over 17 times last night, so we definitely need to force turnovers against this team. And we need to be aggressive on the boards. They had 40, so that's something that they specialize in. They're big, and we're gonna need to be aggressive as we typically are.
00:22:36
Speaker
and control the boards to to the extent that we can. you know Tom, you mentioned that ASU was was awful shooting two of 22 from three. The funny thing is they were the better shooting team from three. Kansas State shot one of 19. I know. ah This was as bad an outside shooting game as I can imagine, and it was painful for me to watch. One thing I thought at the end of this game,
00:23:07
Speaker
you know Arizona still had had a shot at it with seven seconds left. And I have written down here WTF in huge letters with a couple question marks. Seven seconds, you could get up and down the court in seven seconds and they forego a simple inbounds pass to throw the ball to half court and McDaniel picks it off because it's almost like throwing a Hail Mary with seven seconds left. And I thought to myself,
00:23:39
Speaker
Arizona's become a more disciplined team, and it will get to this in a little bit under Tommy Lloyd, but but Arizona's had problems in the past with disciplined teams, with good defensive teams.
00:23:52
Speaker
And they tend to not play overly intelligently. And this was as symptomatic of that as I could possibly imagine. I was absolutely flabbergasted that they threw that pass and that and that ended the game. Well, no, Doug didn't throw it back course, though, Bill. Yes, but it wasn't called.
00:24:15
Speaker
ah but yes. Oh, that's right. They they did write didn't call that, did they? No, no, they didn't. Oh, okay. Okay. that's No, they looked at it. They stopped the game and they looked at it and then they came back and said, play on. good So it was not called.
00:24:33
Speaker
yeah Made from an advanced analytics perspective, both teams shot, like you guys had both mentioned, under 10% from three-point range, and both were scorching from two-point range, both over 59%. The one key stat that told the entire story was, again, turnovers, where Arizona turned the ball over on 22.4% of their possessions, while Kansas State only did so on 13% of their possessions. Just a shocking turnaround for Jerome Tang's Kansas State team.
00:25:02
Speaker
now having won six games in a row and within that six game stretch its wins over West Virginia, ISU, Kansas, and now Arizona, since they're lost to us by 30 points at home. I mean, this is a completely different team. Now let's go to Houston's Arizona swing this week.
00:25:23
Speaker
at Arizona first and then to Arizona State on Tuesday. Let's provide a quick preview and cover both games together. Bill, you can go first from a player's perspective on both games. Arizona, Saturday at one o'clock, which is I believe 11 o'clock. I know that there's There's daylight savings. Sometimes, sometimes it's 11 o'clock. Sometimes it's 12 o'clock in Arizona, but it's one o'clock central on ESPN. Arizona right now, they're as well as they've played, they're 17 and seven, they're 11 and two. Now they're in second place, after losing to K state. But once again, and one win over us from being back in first place because they'll have the tiebreaker.
00:26:14
Speaker
They've got nine players that are playing 16 plus minutes, and I'll spare all of you the statistics and all the details on them. But all nine are talented and all all nine can get things done. I'll mention if several. Caleb Love is their leading scorer, and he's by far their leading shot taker but by quite a bit, 6-4-2 guard transfer from Carolina.
00:26:42
Speaker
and During their miracle win at home against Iowa State, he was brilliantly described by Fran Fraschilla as that Chicago Cubs player, three hundred home run are hit I think he said hit 35 home runs, but strikeout 200 times. and And I thought that was brilliant. And and for for you, Steve and Tom, since you're both about 15 to 20 years older than I am, ah no you'll both know that player was Dave Kingman.
00:27:15
Speaker
being that much younger that's correct being that much younger than you i only had his baseball cards but i know that you guys know him well You know, Love will hit a few threes against us, but if he hits three of them, it means he's probably attempted 12 to 15. The other guards and double figure scorers for them are Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis. They both defend. They both score well and they'll be a threat. Their frontline, we have Trey Townsend. He's a five-star freshman. He could score inside or out.
00:27:57
Speaker
Henry Vassar, the seven foot, ah well, he's the seven foot power forward. He can also do it all. He will shoot threes, good player, he can rebound. And Toby Awakas, there's 6'8", 250 pound yeah center power forward. He leads Arizona in rebounding. He leads midfield low percentage. He is a true inside player. And he's a load. He'll be a threat, yeah. As always, Arizona's loaded with talent.
00:28:25
Speaker
And they're actually more disciplined than previous Arizona teams. But as I mentioned, they are still susceptible to disciplined defensive teams. They've been on a roll lately. They did lose to a discipline team at home, UCLA 59-54. So a team that's disciplined, hits the boards, doesn't turn the ball over.
00:28:52
Speaker
is is very apt to beat Arizona, AKA a U of H. ah Arizona does turn the ball over 12 times a game, and they get sloppy with the ball, and we need to stay disciplined, hit the boards on both ends, avoid tons of fouls, which could be called in this game, and we're good. We're gonna win this game, 71-62. Wow.
00:29:21
Speaker
Pretty big margin there. Minimum. ha How about Arizona state? Arizona state Tuesday night and surprise, surprise. We're not on yeah ESPN. Plus we're on ESPN too. Yeah, no kidding. States 12 and 11. They're three and nine in conference. They're in 15th right now.
00:29:46
Speaker
I think they play TCU before they play us and play at home. So I'm assuming that they're going to win and that would keep them me at 13 and 12, keep them over 500 overall.
00:29:57
Speaker
Probably the thing that'll interest people the most about ASU is that they're coached by Bobby Hurley. who you can either, I won't even say love or hate, you either tolerate him or you hate him. Yeah, I agree. When he was at Duke, I absolutely just abhorred him, just hated him. ah Since then, and since his team is gonna be absolutely zero threat to us, I'll tolerate him.
00:30:26
Speaker
This team has some talent. They've actually got a fair amount of talent. They're just bad. They they score 73 points a game. They only grab 36 rebounds a game. They commit almost 13 and a half turnovers per game. And they're not a great shooting team. I think they're actually quite high in Ken Palm. I i think I saw that they were 60 second. And I'm not sure if that's still the case, but... It is 60 second. It is, okay.
00:30:56
Speaker
Yeah, they have six players at or above double digit scoring. And after those six, they've got nobody scoring over 4.2. So they they basically play six and that's it.
00:31:10
Speaker
not much depth at all. They're a small team and we should just eat them alive inside. Their leading scorer is BJ Freeman. He's a 6-6-2 guard, 13 points a game, but he only shoots 41% from the field. He leads them with 126 threes attempted. He shoots 35%. So he's one of those guys that you would think that we would hold down, but based on the way others have shot against this recently, we'll see. Their other guards are Austin Mason, who leads them with three and a half assists a game, but isn't a great shooter. And then Jason San and a six five, five star point guard from
00:31:53
Speaker
Not the university, he's just from Vermont, the state of Vermont. Shoots the ball poorly from two, but he's almost a 40% shooter from three. And then they've got a guy off the bench, 6'3 guard Adam Miller, who does shoot 46% from three. So when he comes in, he's a guy to watch. Up front, really just two players.
00:32:14
Speaker
Bashir Jihad. us He's a 6'9 senior power forward. He's our second leading scorer, second leading rebounder. He also averages a whopping 3.1 turnovers per game. The other is Jaden Quaintance. He's their other five star freshman. They've got Two playing for them. He's out of Cleveland. He scores nine and a half points He leads them with eight point two boards and he also blocks almost three shots per game. He's a talented guy and He'll he'll certainly be on the floor quite a bit bottom line Arizona State as I said, they've got some talented kids, but they're all new. They've got no starters back this year
00:32:56
Speaker
you know, chemistry, we'll see. It's been kind of up and down. They're sloppy with the ball. They're not great shooters. They do, however, defend pretty well. This game will be exclusively defined by how well we bounce back after the Arizona win. I have a speeding state, 74-63. I had a speeding failure, 74-60. So same number of points for us.
00:33:24
Speaker
three more for, for Arizona state and all right get, get a road win and another road win. And then it's onto the, the, the brutal part of the schedule. Yeah. How about you, Tom, the two Arizona games from a coach's perspective? Well, Bill mentioned Fran Fischel talking about Caleb Love being like Dave Kingman.
00:33:48
Speaker
If you're an Astro fan, an older Astro fan, you'll remember Kingman. I can't remember. He was playing for the Cubs or the Mets. He was having some arm or shoulder issues. I think he was playing left field, but we all remember him trying to throw a guy out at third and the ball sailing in the stands. Uh, yeah, he was, he missed his target by a long shot. See, I knew an old guy like you would remember him. Well, yeah, Dave, they call him a calm Kingman. I'll get there. Arizona.
00:34:18
Speaker
This is not your usual Tommy Lloyd, softer than dog shit on an August afternoon. A typical ah Tommy Lloyd coach team. They actually have a little bit of toughness to him. yeah ah great I like Vsar. I think he's brought that toughness. Awaka does too. Trey Townsend is a power forward.
00:34:41
Speaker
that they got in a portal from Oakland University. but You guys will probably remember last March when Oakland beat Kentucky. A lot of people remember that D2 guard for Oakland hitting nothing like nine or 10 threes against Kentucky. But it was Trey Townsend, they would get the ball to him at the elbow, and then he would just go to work. He was a really, really good player for Oakland, but things just aren't clicking with him in Arizona. I don't know, it just like the offense doesn't click with him.
00:35:12
Speaker
I think they're actually better. He set out the last couple of games with an injury and I think they're actually better without Townsend. So in our case, hopefully Townsend's healthy and he gets to play a whole lot because that means that a walker or a V-SAR is not going to be on the floor floor as much.
00:35:30
Speaker
Bill and Steve, you guys both alluded to Caleb Love. he He's like ah since his days at North Carolina. We know at North Carolina, nobody ever can like pinpoint the deal, but Love was part of that team that was preseason number one and they didn't even make the the tournament. Just horrible chemistry issues so ah with him and RJ Davis, but Caleb Love.
00:35:54
Speaker
He's kind of like the football quarterback that every time he passes, somebody's band is go somebody's band is' going to play. It might be your band, it might be the other team's band. Caleb Love is kind of like that player in basketball. He can literally shoot you out of the game.
00:36:10
Speaker
But then again, uh, as we know in that Iowa state game, he can have a terrible shooting night. And then the game went in overtime and he hits. He's just these two bombs, three pointers that were just like daggers to Iowa state. So he's a mercurial guard.
00:36:30
Speaker
Didn't have the greatest game against K-State the other night. Some other players I think that Bill mentioned. ah KJ Lewis, also really, really athletic player. He brings some toughness to them too. They brought in last year a guard from Bama. I think his name is Jayden Bradley. They lost one of their guards to Illinois and they kind of replaced him with Bradley. And then there's that five star ah freshman. I think his last name is Bryant, a really good player there too. so ah It's gonna be at the McHale Center. In my opinion, McHale is one of the best venues for basketball. I think it holds like 14,000 people really support their wild cast there. So expect it to be a rockets crowd, expect it to be a back and forth game, but also expect the the Kooks to pull this one out. Absolutely. we mean By ah like 173, 72, hopefully it's not not that close.
00:37:27
Speaker
But I have this winning this one and then on to Arizona State. I kind of see this game is being along the lines of a Colorado game where the game is semi close and you're kind of waiting for the knockout punch to happen and then it kind of never comes, but we end up winning by 910 points. um You guys mentioned Bobby Hurley. oh you Yeah, you just.
00:37:53
Speaker
You know, not shaking hands with Arizona for some, I don't know, sixty just anything to play like the victim or people are against us. That kind of mindset, just like his, just like his brother. Yeah. Agreed. So just quickly from an advanced analytics perspective, Arizona has been hot since conference play has begun and appears to be our main challenger for the big 12 title.
00:38:18
Speaker
They're number 14th now in Ken Palm and are 11 and two in conference play. They're also number 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency and number 14th and adjusted defensive efficiency while we're now at a new season high number six in adjusted offensive efficiency. And we've dropped a number three and and and adjusted defensive efficiency. So this is going to be another battle of heavyweights in the big 12 with two elite and balanced teams playing against each other.
00:38:46
Speaker
Um, not going to go through any of the other analytics here, but as we've all mentioned, Arizona can be a little bit careless with the ball at times on offense. So he's going to be Houston taking advantage of that and trying to get some easy scores based on the metrics. This is projected to be a two point win on the road for the Cougs based on Ken Palm. I view this as a key game that will determine the big 12 champion in given the extra days of rest after a big Monday game, we should be.
00:39:14
Speaker
really ready and focused. And I agree with the metrics and predict a 2.70 to 68 win for the cooks event for Arizona state. This should be considered, I guess what you can call a trap game on the road closely after a big Arizona game, Arizona say it's been really spotty. And, you know, from an advanced analytics perspective, all you need to know is that they are miserable from two point range. They don't offensive rebound and they turn the ball over a ton.
00:39:41
Speaker
So based on the metrics, this is projected to be an 11 point win on the road for the Cougs by Ken Palm. I think our team may be a bit worn down after the Arizona game. So I think it will also be a close one. I'm predicting a nine point 67 to 58 win. And it's another one of those just winded move on tight kind of games, folks.
Houston's Championship Potential
00:40:01
Speaker
So since we got through playing a stellar offensive game with Baylor.
00:40:05
Speaker
How about we all weigh in on how good this offense has looked this season so far. Many fans have continued to grasp about our offensive challenges this season as well as throughout the Samson era. We focus so much on D and have been consistently top 10 in the country the last five years on the defensive side. On offense, we've never really shot the ball well, but we rate highly because of our relentless offensive rebounding. And we've talked about the prototypical profile of a national championship team. It's typically been top 10 on offense and a top 20 on defensive team. So how good is this season's offense? Many fans have referenced our final four team with Grimes as the best offense of the Samson era.
00:40:45
Speaker
But how does this team's offense look to each of you from a player's as well as a coach's perspective? And is this offense good enough to win a national championship this year given the competition? Tom, why don't you kick things off from a coach's perspective? Have you seen any tweaks scheme wise or whatever? And kind of what's your take on how good this offense is and whether we can win at all with this offense?
00:41:11
Speaker
Well, I'll start off with if you go back, oh at least 20 something years ago when Kelvin was at OU, people growls about his offense there. Matter of fact, some people joke that he should have hired an offense coordinator.
00:41:27
Speaker
You know, feudal, I mean, you can't do everything well. You got to pick something that you want to be good at and spend your majority of time on that. And ours is defense, rebounding, and then taking care of the ball. I mean, if you turn the ball over, you're not going to play. It's like the running back who fumbles, you know, a good coach, they're not going to play them, take care of the ball. So Kelvin has his, he has his standards, you know, uh, he calls it the holy Trinity defend, rebound, take care of the ball.
00:41:56
Speaker
But like I said, ah you can't be great at everything. So you got to pick something you want to be really great at and ours is defending rebounding. And I think on the offensive end, because of that, you Kelvin keeps it as simple as he can.
00:42:12
Speaker
Let players make play, you know you recruit good players and then you allow them to make plays. I don't see anything really different that we're doing like from an X and O standpoint. but We do just like everybody else does, we pick and roll stuff, penetrate, ah they call it race and space basketball, well spacings offense, offensive spacing.
00:42:37
Speaker
But if you look at our team, we're playing different competition these last couple of years. So it's a little bit more difficult to compare ah this team to teams that played in the American. I don't have any analytics. I just go by the eye test. But when I watch this play this year, it does seem that we're more fluid. but We're not having as much trouble getting off quality shots. A lot of times it seemed last year, last couple of years, we would run our stuff.
00:43:05
Speaker
sometimes maybe LJ or E man would probably have an open shot a little bit early in the shot clock, but they, they would pass it up and then we'd end up with, uh, you know, I, uh, shit, you know, and it's a shock clock, swelling down. And I've heard Kelvin say he wants LJ and E man. If they got an open shot, they they need to take it. Uh, he sold Terrence to be more aggressive. Yeah.
00:43:33
Speaker
to take as many shots as he can. And, you know, when I just looked at the eye test, we actually have Juwan, you know, scoring down lows. We had, we had that option too. You know, we, uh, Milos who can, he just kind of like probes and snakes his way in there. And but he's not going to blow you away with speed and athleticism, like maybe shed and Kingston Flemings will do next year, but he's crafty. He finds a way to to get to the basket.
00:44:01
Speaker
And he's an underrated three point shooter. I had no idea that my lows could shoot the three that, that well, when it came to us. And of course, there's always a factor that we give so much on the defensive end that it's only natural that it's going to probably affect your offense a little bit when you're just really that zoned in on defense. But if I had to just go by the eye test, I'd say, yeah, this is probably the best offensive team we've had. If you factor in the competition that we're playing.
00:44:33
Speaker
Terrence is I think is the X factor for this team. As far as the ceiling goes, LJ, we've seen what LJ could probably do. You know, it is at his ceiling. We probably kind of see what a manual can do and Joanne can do, uh, and, and Milo's and, and Oozan, but, uh, we just don't know how high the ceiling for, for, uh, Terence is once he can reach that point where he's pretty much consistent like LJ and E-man and, uh, you know, this, um, you know, this team can.
00:45:05
Speaker
be special offensively and end up, uh, you know, coming home with the trophy. All right. So you do think the offense is good enough this year to win at all? Yeah. would No doubt. If your shots aren't fallen, you better be a great defensive team and you better be a great ah rebounding team if you're missing shots. So we're the type of team that could survive a bad shooting night just because of that reason. All right. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective, of how good is this offense?
00:45:35
Speaker
Well, 76 points a game, which is you know it's average. 13 assists, which is which is good. 9 turnovers per game, which helps us immensely.
00:45:49
Speaker
and numbers that have really risen 46% from the field, which is extremely solid and 39 and a half percent from three, which is outstanding. And that's something that we may not have. Well, not that we may not have. We we didn't have in the past. We've got multiple shooters and that really helps if people sink in on Roberts, who who's been outstanding inside. And once again, we've got a point guard who can A, get the ball to the open shooters and B, knock down open shots himself. But we don't lose offensive possessions due to turnovers. We're shooting well. We turn over the opponents.
00:46:41
Speaker
And we out rebound the opponents, especially on the offensive end, which leads to vastly more shots attempted than the opponents are taking. And we move the ball really well and and we're a very, very.
00:46:57
Speaker
unselfish team offensively. So we're going to hit the open man when he's there. Cryer isn't going to think, well, I haven't gotten off enough threes tonight. I haven't scored enough. He sees Francis unguarded underneath. The ball is going right to him. If there's an opportunity to go into Roberts, the ball is going right to him. If it's moving the ball back to Yuuzhan on the point after he's gotten it to And not just a crier to sharp to arsenal to whoever the ball is going to move to the open person and, and more so than at least I've ever seen. We're really yeah pretty well focused on, on getting the open look and getting it to whoever is open because everyone on the floor is capable of scoring the negative. We can go through shooting slums and you know, I like it.
00:47:51
Speaker
I really liked it that we've been going through Juwan more and he can kick the ball out. He's been really great, especially when he's able to you know spin off the right side, go up with his left hand. I mean, he's been outstanding.
00:48:07
Speaker
However, the the big thing that this really kind of reared its ugly head when we were at West Virginia was the fact that our guards were so perimeter-focused and it almost looked like we were unable to cope with really aggressive defenders at the guard position ah from our. and We were having trouble getting the offensive started. We were trying to to scramble to get off shots at the end of the shot clock. And Calvin pulled Usan, he really lit into him. And you could just see Usan became more aggressive, Cryer became aggressive, Arsenault became aggressive.
00:48:54
Speaker
sharp, sharp did as well and unfortunately got injured. Our guards are more aggressive offensively and, and use on is, is the key to that. And as long as that's happening, yes I think that helps everyone that helps us that helps our perimeter players be more effective. it it's It's going to help Juwan dominate inside. It's going to free up Tuggler to get more offensive rebounds. It's going to free up Javier to gun guard it and get passes inside or to also get offensive rebounds. And I love the fact ah
00:49:36
Speaker
that our guards are becoming more aggressive, especially our point guard. And the fact that Yuuzhan doesn't turn the ball over just just makes me want him to be even that more aggressive offensively because he's he's going to hang onto the ball. Yeah, i I think we're more than okay offensively. And I've been saying since day one that we are going to win it all this year. What I was alluding to, but Before this, Steve was, I thought it was funny that you brought this up as a topic because you guys may or may not remember this, but this was maybe the, I don't know, ninth, eighth, ninth or so 10th, maybe podcast last year and one of the
00:50:24
Speaker
mediocre teams. We won the game easily. And I was going through everything and all three of us were talking about how dominant we were defensively on the boards. And I said, if there's one thing that I had to, to pick on, it was the fact that we had missed some free throws and we missed some, some wide open, relatively short shots.
00:50:46
Speaker
And you guys jumped on me. You were saying, this is not an offensive team. This is a defense and rebounding team. That's what Calvin preaches. And Tom, you had mentioned, you would use the analogy of a restaurant that claims to be a good restaurant but has, I don't know what you said, either innumerable or who knows 40 something like that entrees on the menu and it's like how can you be good when you try to try to to do so many things well it's impossible and I number one
00:51:30
Speaker
I think we're playing well offensively. Are there areas where we can improve? Yeah, absolutely. But I think Kelvin's got the team playing well offensively. I think he's got the team playing well defensively. I think he's got the team rebounding, but you know, maybe not rebounding to to the level that we have in past years, but with the team that we have, I think we're rebounding well. We're aggressive. we are We control them. I think you can be good in all areas where we're clearly.
00:51:59
Speaker
Without question, we're far superior on the defensive end and rebounding. But that's not to say that we don't have a good offense because, you know, at 46%, almost 40% from three, Roberts playing well and quite honestly dominating in a number of games inside. I think this ah offense ah is good. and And like I said,
00:52:24
Speaker
After you guys attack me for bringing up the offense last year, I just, I found it comical that U of H's offense is being brought up as a topic tonight.
Closing Remarks and Social Media Call
00:52:33
Speaker
Yeah. Well, Bill, I think this year's team is different. And I would say this is an offensive oriented team. And I think we've also seen from the last two years where you can be balanced and you can be great at both. I mean, UConn was great at both for the last two years and they won handily.
00:52:50
Speaker
So, if you look from an advanced analytics perspective, folks, this year's team is statistically by far the best offensive team of the Sampson area, where number six in Ken Palm and adjusted offensive efficiency at 124.3. Now, what that 124.3 means is it's adjusted based on a opponent level and it basically measures number of points your team is able to score per 100 possessions based on Ken Palm. Next closest team of the Sampson Air to this point from our ranking perspective was indeed our Final Four team in 21 that lost to Baylor and they were ranked number seventh in Ken Palm in adjusted offensive efficiency.
00:53:33
Speaker
But this year's team is shooting better than that one from both three-point range and two-point range, plus the raw score on that team was only 118.3. This year's team is a full six points difference per 100 possessions, which is huge when you're talking about statistics. This has also been by far, as you guys had both mentioned, our best three-point shooting team since 2018, when we had Corey Davis, Amani Brooks,
00:54:00
Speaker
West Van Beck and Rob Gray. But compared to that team, we are offensive rebounding at a way higher clip now with Tugler, Francis and Roberts in the lineup. Combine that with our least turnover prone point guard of the Sampson era in Oozan, who's currently at a four to one assisted turnover ratio. And you've got by far our most potent offensive team of the Samson era. Now this offense, is it good enough to win when it comes March? That's the question that everyone wants to know based on recent historical data. I came into the season believing that if we could improve our adjusted offensive efficiency score to above 121 for this season, which is a full two points improvement from our best historical season under Samson,
00:54:46
Speaker
Combined with our usual stellar day, we would be good enough to win it all. The season is obviously not over yet, but now into mid-February, we are a full three points per 100 possessions beyond that mark. If you look at the last five national championship teams, UConn, adjusted offensive efficiency, number one in 24 at 127.5,
00:55:08
Speaker
In 23, UConn adjusted offensive efficiency number three at 120.8. 22, it was Kansas adjusted offensive efficiency at number six at 119.2. In 21, it was Baylor adjusted offensive efficiency number two of the nation at 125. And then in 2019, it was Virginia adjusted offensive efficiency number two of the nation at 123.4. So folks.
00:55:35
Speaker
Basically, if we keep this up at 124.3, and I believe we will, this will end up being our best offensive team of the Samson era and definitely within the range of what you expect to see in a national championship. So I'm hoping ah for folks that hear this, no more grousing about the offense for this team. This year's team is an offensive juggernaut at number six and at 124.3 inefficiency. So that's it for our number 43.
00:56:04
Speaker
Third episode of the no conference program podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow subscribe or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We're also available via the Republican football podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's, Texas football as the only basketball century podcast. We're at the cocoox.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way.
00:56:28
Speaker
We appreciate the continued support from all, and please give us a follow on our Twitter account, no conference for old Ben. Thank you all again for listening, and be on the lookout next week to download and listen as our next episode drops. Take care, everyone.