Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
UH Alone On Top of the XII + State of the Conference
81 Plays3 months ago
Welcome to Episode #40 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
Our Houston Cougars are now 15-3, 7-0 in the XII, & now in sole possession of 1st in the conference standings after squeaking by UCF & then turning around to completely dismantle Utah. Houston will be stepping up in competition this week with visits to both Kansas & WVU. The 3 Old Men review the 2 games played & preview the upcoming games this week + an added discussion on the "State of the Big 12" 7 conference games in. Are the 3 old guys surprised Houston's alone atop the conference standings? And what about fans stating it isn't that impressive this year given the perceived weakness of the Big 12 this season?
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on gocoogs.com/old-men/
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction and Episode Overview
00:00:07
Speaker
Welcome folks to episode 40 of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. The podcast where three old guys are talking to Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of big 12 coverage added in as well. And proud members of the Goku's.com network. The undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
00:00:24
Speaker
We're back again with all three old men, Tom Lydiak, former coach, Bill Walker, former player, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy for this 40th episode.
Cougars' Victories and Game Analysis
00:00:33
Speaker
Well, it's another week and our Houston Cougars go 2-0 again and now sit alone atop the Big 12 standings. As the Cougars just squeaked by a very athletic and inspired UCF team, 69, 68 in Orlando, and then turned around for a 70 to 36 thrashing of Utah at home after a one-day delay due to the crazy snowy conditions in Houston.
00:00:57
Speaker
We now head into arguably the toughest three game stretch of the season at KU, then at West Virginia, which we'll both preview today with the return home game versus Texas Tech afterwards. We're going to go through these games quickly today with read review two to the preview.
00:01:15
Speaker
and then jump into a what we call state of the Big 12 after seven games discussion this week, where we'll highlight some surprising teams so far, both good and bad, as well as whether UAH being on top of the Big 12 standings means as much this season, given the Big 12's perceived weakness.
Insights into Cougars vs. UCF Game
00:01:34
Speaker
So let's get into it guys in looking at our two big 12 wins this week. Let's begin with post-game analysis of the nail biting 69 to 68 win in Orlando, as well as the 70 to 36 surprising cakewalk last night over Utah, where every kid got to play extended minutes. Let's start with you first, Tom. What were some of the things you saw from a coach's perspective in both of the games? Well, the first thing that ah jumped off the TV to me was a UCF's intensity.
00:02:03
Speaker
They were playing like it was their Super Bowl. They were hitting difficult shots. I mean, just high energy. It was a great crowd at UCF. You know, when the Houston Cougars come to town, they always, they always seem to be ready. But, you know, just like a boxing match.
00:02:20
Speaker
They threw their haymakers first. They kind of shot their wad in the first half and we didn't hit the canvas. And we were down by, it was like 38, 30 at half. It was a very physical game. And it was one of the few times that I thought the whistle might've favored UCF more more than us. And it's because they, I think they were the aggressor. ah We were kind of back on our heels. LJ E-man had a.
00:02:48
Speaker
Tough shooting first half. They were ice cold, but, uh, in true, you know, in true championship fashion, we came out and, and, and, uh, ground out of win super out of bounds play at the end for Juwan to get the, to get the we're down by one.
00:03:09
Speaker
Kudos also to Milos that made the inbounds pass. yeah I think it was ah Darius ah Johnson for UCF. He was up there on the ball you like a wild man. And you know who on it was a little bit nuanced pass. He made a couple of subtle fakes and ah you know got the ball to Juwan rather than having the ball tipped. If you notice, I think UCF had the ball.
00:03:35
Speaker
for a last second shot and JoJo's on the ball and he got his finger on it. So I don't think you can underestimate the impact of the past that Milos made ah to Juwan. We had a place set up where it could have gone to LJ. It could have gone to E-man. Tuggler was another guy that ah went to the the backside, but just the clutch shot by Juwan. It kind of shots you when you figure a six year guy can make. but ah Just a tough game. I mean, if UCF played the way all year, like they play against us, they'd probably be winning a lot more games than they do. But then they come back and Iowa state game later, Iowa state scores 108 on them. So it's crazy I think that game probably took a lot out of UCF.
Analysis of Cougars vs. Utah Game
00:04:21
Speaker
Yeah, no kidding. How about the Utah game Tom? Okay. Utah game.
00:04:31
Speaker
It's hard to put into words how dominant our defense was. We held him to 36 points and just put it in perspective. Kelvin basically emptied the bench with a little over seven minutes left. I think it was still on the floor. I know we had said we had Cordelia's. We had mercy. It might have been Malik and I think the other one was Terrence, but that was with over seven minutes left. I can't remember Kelvin ever empty in a bench.
00:05:00
Speaker
that early in the game is still the only score 36 points. just I'm sure you have all the stats and all the metrics and all that, but it it was just a steam roll.
00:05:11
Speaker
ah I think Utah was in the game for about two minutes and then it was an avalanche. yeah but um Just just crazy crazy off the charts ah defense. i mean but I don't think we beat American conference teams like this. I know we had lots of blowouts and all that. but I don't remember us an American really holding teams to these like historical levels. no I'll have a comparison even with an earlier game this season as well, just to show folks how dominating this particular win was versus Utah. But yeah, you're absolutely right, Tom. Now we'll say this, ah you know, Craig Smith, the Utah coach.
00:05:53
Speaker
Very likable guy. And by the way, everybody likes you when they're beating you. Coach Smith, he had just great things to say about Kelvin and the Houston Cougar ah program. And our team just, you know, I think he was a little impressed himself by what we did to his team. No kidding. How about you, Bill, for the two games from player's perspective? Yeah. Central Florida.
00:06:19
Speaker
that The one thing that I recall and you're going to have to forgive me because my notes seem to have evaded me. Oh, and by the way, just as kind of a preamble, I hope the list from last week is gone. I'm blaming that entirely on on ah the AI editing. And of course that would fall squarely on your head, Steve. So you're a hundred percent responsible for that list. Hopefully that's.
00:06:46
Speaker
entirely gone and we'll never hear it again. But no, no, I can confirm it's still there. I can hear it right now. um god Well, in that case, maybe, uh, maybe I should just jump off. Uh, okay. well Well, I guess make the best of it. Yeah. People what were texting me and I was on a couple of group texts.
00:07:14
Speaker
And, uh, kind of freaking out at, at halftime when we were down 38 30 and, and yeah, what, one of the stats that I recall was that, uh, uh, prior and sharp, I believe were a combined four of 15 from the field in the first half and one of 10 from three. And I said to them, look, this isn't the end of the world. It's not.
00:07:41
Speaker
That big a deal. We're down eight. We can come back from eight easily. It wasn't easy, but but we can come back from eight. We just got no production from our back court in the first half. and ah but So I thought we'd be okay. I did not think it would come down to an out-of-bounds play with 3.2 seconds left.
00:08:07
Speaker
but Obviously glad we got the win. We had a few guys that, you know, Tuggler, Tuggler had a presence at the end of the game, but again, only played 12 minutes. ah Prior didn't have, as I mentioned, didn't have a great shooting game and Arsenal off the bench. It just didn't seem like he was, he was, he kind of had his head and in the game and was nearly as aggressive as he as he could be and only and ended up only playing 10 minutes. Wilson played great. Javier played great. And obviously, you know, we figured out that we were not necessarily
00:08:49
Speaker
bigger inside, but certainly stronger and Roberts, you know, Roberts just took control and ended up having 21 and nine. It's just a, just a great, but you know, 16 and 10 for, for, uh, for Francis in 25 minutes is outstanding as well. And so we really got some great production out of our three big guys. And the other thing, and I agree that the, that there were some, definitely some questionable whistles, but it It also benefited us that UCF had some issues hitting free throws. Yes. Down the stretch of that game. So, so good to get out with a win as Iowa State knows, you know, you're not going to win everything. And if you don't come in prepared to play ah and play well, you can lose just because the, the SEC is the top rated conference doesn't mean that
00:09:46
Speaker
the Big 12 isn't still damn competitive and has some great games. So, yeah, that's what I've got on UCF. Utah, yeah, 70-36. I predicted a 40-point win and some people thought I was nuts for predicting that. Quite honestly, had Sharp played, could have been 50. And, Tom, you mentioned that Calvin started pulling everyone. Yeah, it was close to eight minutes left when he started pulling everyone. So, I mean, this game could have been much, much uglier. This was a game where athleticism and aggressiveness just dominated. And Utah is just not a an exceptionally athletic team. And as we had a battle with them last year, but this clearly was not the same Utah team. there They don't have the shooters that they had last year. yeah
00:10:47
Speaker
They didn't have the high West Virginia out rebounded us 36 33 which was pointed out to me as well and there's a pretty simple explanation for that if you don't shoot the ball it's hard for the opponents to get rebounds they committed and Steve I know you'll you'll get into this they committed 26 turnovers 14 in the first half and coming into the game they were number 11 in the country in turnover margin either of you know where they are after
00:11:19
Speaker
the game yesterday? No. What are they at now? 29. Wow. They dropped from 11 to 29 in turnover margin. That was- It's on one game. Yeah, exactly. I mean, that's, yeah, you don't see teams turn the ball over 29 times. And that's because they they seem to be uncomfortable a lot of times handling the ball and want to get rid of it they the our pressure defense just uh... just intimidated them quite honestly The bench shooting, and I guess, I mean, Malik and Mercy in particular, wasn't good. Two of 16, 0-5 from three. Tuggler was limited again by foul trouble, but he did have three steals. And we had, as a team, 19 steals in 11 blocks, which which is
00:12:13
Speaker
a unbelievable but be they only had three steals in one block which again represents the uh... the athleticism in and just the the supremely better defense that we play and wilson despite shooting poorly did have forces five steels and let us with seven boards uh... this was quite honestly just a matter of utah not being in the same class that we're in and and and the score dictated that. Yeah, you're absolutely right. And the analytics actually support that as well. Though we didn't hit our norms for the season, defense still won the day for us, along with, as you guys had highlighted, our two bigs in Roberts and Francis dominating inside in the 69 to 68 win. On offense, we just could not shake free for any good looks on threes.
00:13:05
Speaker
shooting an abysmal 18.75% from three-point range this game, where UCF, quite honestly, had been terrible all season defending the arc. Thankfully, inside the paint, Francis had his best game of his career at UH, 16 points, four or five from the field with the 10 rebounds, as you guys had highlighted. And Juwan just had his way inside as well for those 21 points and nine rebounds. And, of course, the game went down low while double teamed, I'll add, with 1.1 second.
00:13:35
Speaker
On defense, we just challenged UCF on every shot and kept their shooting percentages slightly below their averages while forcing turnovers on almost 20% of their possessions. We were definitely UCF's highlighted game of the season and they were focused and motivated the whole 48 minutes. So I'm ecstatic that we were able to win it in the way we did. Cause this team really needed a game like this to demonstrate to themselves that they could close out close games so on the road.
00:14:03
Speaker
Now the game versus Utah was the exact opposite at this game was over quite honestly,
West Virginia vs. Iowa State Recap
00:14:10
Speaker
before the half when we led 41 to 17 on offense, we were able to leverage our stellar ball movement and inside, outside bounds against a decent D in Utah. And they were actually top 20 from two point percentage D. We did not end up shooting well for the game, but I'm not going to go into the advanced analytics because.
00:14:29
Speaker
As you guys had highlighted, this is a game where Sharp didn't play and no regular starter played more than 25 minutes. Everyone, and I mean everyone, got in for extended minutes. On defenses was a crazy scary night for future opponents in showing how well connected we are now on that side of the ball. Looking at statistics, Utah ended up at 36% effective field goal percentage with UH smothering them inside to an unbelievable 31% from two point range, locking their shot on over 42% of their attempts, that which is just shocking. And just to suffocate them some more, we forced turnovers on over 43% of Utah's positions with 19 steals, as you guys had highlighted.
00:15:17
Speaker
And to give all the fans a sense of how dominating defensively Houston was, you can go back to our Louisiana game earlier in the season where they were what we would say the lowest Ken Palm team on our schedule this year coming in to the game. And they were at what, 324, I believe. And even they shot effective field goal percentage.
00:15:38
Speaker
39% for the game to Utah's 36, and Utah's a Big 12 team, folks. So the Cougars are now a perfect 7-0 in conference with sole possession of number one in the standings of the Big 12. So let's review one key game from atop the leaderboard of the Big 12 as well as West Virginia beat Iowa State 64 to 57 at home this past Saturday. Bill, what's your sound bite from a player's perspective in that West Virginia and ISU game?
00:16:08
Speaker
But West Virginia is a very good defensive team, and that's what it took. It took a ah great defensive effort to shut down ISU. ISU, and this is this this I think is maybe the only stat to look at for that game practically, ah ISU shot one of 17, 6% from three. Excuse me, that's the difference in the game.
00:16:35
Speaker
ISU had had 10 more boards, but five more both teams shot poorly from the outside. And the Big 12, you know, if you're not, if you're not ready to play every night and you don't come out with your A game, that's what's bound to happen. And West Virginia is a much better team than then they've been in the past, certainly better than last year. And they took advantage of ISU's poor shooting.
00:17:04
Speaker
Yeah, well said. How about you, Tom, from a coach's perspective on the West Virginia ISU game? I will say this. I was mildly surprised that I state lost, ah even though the game was played in Morgantown. They only scored 57 points. ah At first thought you'd say, well, maybe they're missing Mom C. Levitch. Well, they didn't miss them when they scored 108. The next, the next game when they played ah UCF, it does thin their bench though. Cause now you have to, I believe it's Curtis Jones. He was coming off the bench. Now he's inserted into the starting lineup. ah So they have a really good starting five. I just don't think their bench is, uh,
00:17:51
Speaker
ah It's a thin bench for Iowa state. So we'll see how they hold up until mom seal, which comes back, but that could be a ways way too. Oh, really? And then of course, uh, West Virginia has the big win at home and then they immediately come back and lose at home to Arizona state. ah Shocking, you know, go figure. How does that happen? Well, like Bill said, ah if you don't come ready to play, you know,
00:18:18
Speaker
your teams are good enough in this league to get you beat. So yeah, I was a little bit, I was a Molly surprised at Iowa State losing that game. Now I was happy they lost.
00:18:30
Speaker
Yeah, don't kidding. Don't get me wrong on that. I'm glad they got beat. they They need a few more losses.
Predictions for Upcoming Games Against Kansas and West Virginia
00:18:37
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, we talked about West Virginia being sneaky good the last two weeks, and they proved it yet again with this win over Iowa State. From an analytics perspective, the highlight was indeed that West Virginia's D stood tall.
00:18:51
Speaker
and limiting ISU's number 10 adjusted-defension offense to sub-45% from the game and is, Bill, you mentioned under 6% from three-point range. But additionally, West Virginia also forced Iowa State to turn the ball over on 21% of their possessions. And here's the interesting stat of the day.
00:19:12
Speaker
all 21% of those turnovers were on steals. So I don't think I've ever seen that stat in that fashion before. So West Virginia got back into the AP poll this week. After that win, of course, we don't want to go into the games you guys have highlighted where they lost subsequently at home to ASU. But that's life in the Big 12.
00:19:35
Speaker
So now we move on to two more games this coming week for Houston. Tough games at Kansas and then at the aforementioned West Virginia. Tom, what's your coach's take on the next two games? Kansas, yeah it's hard to tell. It seems like they got some things fixed if they had that loss to West Virginia ah at home. They also have what, another loss? I think it was Iowa State, I think already. Iowa State on the road.
00:20:04
Speaker
And then they just killed UCF. They go to UCF in Orlando and they just, they kill them by about 50 something points. So sometimes it's kind of hard to tell what kind of Kansas team you're going to get. I think some of their pieces don't fit. You have AJ store really hasn't.
00:20:21
Speaker
uh, you know, meshed, uh, you have Rylan Griffin who really hasn't met, you know, meshed and, you know, you're talking about two. Rylan Griffin, you're talking about one of the best three point shooters around. ah You're talking about AJ store, one of the best scores in the big pan coming from what Wisconsin. yeah They're coming in and they're playing a little bit, but I don't know what's going on, but they just don't seem to, to mesh very well. Uh,
00:20:47
Speaker
They were probably the most highly talented portal guys coming in. And then the least talented ones, you have Zeke Mayo from South Dakota state. He's probably the biggest portal addition for them. He seems to, you know, to pretty much the jail with the other, with a big three for Kansas. And then ah you have the more.
00:21:07
Speaker
Defense oriented guard. I think his name is to kill more from I think he's a transfer from Mississippi State He's more of a defense oriented ah guard and they've been playing him quite a bit. I think he might even be starting but We'll see it's fog Allen, you know, it's fog Allen Field House Rock chalk Jayhawk and all that kind of crap ah Officials we'll see ah I think a lot of A lot of the way the game is going to go, I think is going to be determined by the whistle, what kind of game is called. do You know, if we get in foul trouble, especially like Jojo, he gets in foul trouble or LJ or E-man, you know, it ah could be, it could be tough for us. Yeah. I am predicting a win though. How are you? Wow. We come out with a 79, 78 win.
00:21:57
Speaker
and That's, that's not like you to be predicted wins on the road. against i i know what i'm you see yeah I'm usually, I'm using more pessimistic than I'm happy when we win. Yeah. ah But this time I'm thinking, uh, we came up with a win. I, uh, I believe we're the tougher team in Kansas is, but like, uh, like I said, against UCF, it seems like when the Houston Cougars come to town, I mean, everybody.
00:22:23
Speaker
years up for us. Yeah. It's hard to believe just so our second year in the league. And it's like, we're the bullies in the league. And you got a blue blood like Kansas, but, uh, it just seems like teams scared for us. And here's the deal. Teams know that they they don't come out and they don't fight. They're going to get embarrassed. Yeah. And that brings out the best in, uh, best in teams and and Utah found out that they found out that, uh, that out the other night.
00:22:49
Speaker
And then you got West Virginia kind of hard to talk about West Virginia until we get past Kansas. ah You know another game on the road played in Morgantown. Students are back. I'm sure it's going to be a crazy environment. I think we come out with a hard earned victory in that one too, and it'll bring us to what to 9 and oh. If we if we start 9 and oh. Unbelievable and with the competition we're playing.
00:23:18
Speaker
Yeah, that would be pretty crazy. Tom, where are the five conference losses that you've predicted coming from? Oh, I know I had us going 64 on the road and 91 at home, but for the record, Bill, we'll say this. I'm glad I'm wrong. We'll be wrong. I'm rooting for myself to be wrong. And there you go. I am too. Love it. Okay. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective with the two games?
00:23:46
Speaker
Okay. Well, Kansas Saturday at five 30 on ESPN, they're 14 and four, they're five and two and, and, uh, in conference, uh, yeah, they lost at home to West Virginia. As was mentioned, they got smoked at, uh, at Iowa state, probably their best win this season was, it was a close win over Duke, but that was early in their top 10 Ken Tom. They're, they're really.
00:24:16
Speaker
ah Much but typically they're a really good offensive team and their defenses and isn't bad. They're a defensive team this year yeah And I know you'll you'll talk about that see but they I'm sure definitely top five in Ken Palm defensively and and you know, so that's that's what we're in for and They were a bit of a deeper team this year than they were last year where they had injuries and, you know, self had said that he had needed to go out and recruit more and better players. and
00:24:53
Speaker
But as it turns out, well, number one, their forward, ah KJ Adams, their senior forward, he separated his shoulder versus Iowa State. He is out and he will be out for the U of H game. So KJ Adams will not be playing. And they've actually been playing their starters a ton of minutes over the last,
00:25:16
Speaker
few games. So the depth has all of a sudden shrunk for Kansas losing Adams. And I'll just, I'll mention a few players. You can't talk about Kansas without mentioning Hunter Dickinson, the All-American 7-2 center. He's at 16 points and 10 boards, 53% from the field. He kind of does it all. And Tommy mentioned Zeke Mayo he's the only other double digits score on the team and he's averaging fifteen points for boards three assists couple turnovers. ah Thirty eight percent from three so he can score it it in a variety of ways he's a really good player I like him.
00:25:59
Speaker
And then the other big name is Dwan Harris, their senior 62 point guard. And he may have been able to go to the and NBA last year is probably a little questionable, but he returned and he's scoring. I mean, he's close to 10 points, nine, seven, five and a half assists, but, uh, you know, 44% from the field, he he can shoot, but he's not a great shooter. Uh, I mentioned Adams is out store. I have no problem with him.
00:26:28
Speaker
not having a ah great season or or at least stepping up as much as he could. You talk to anybody from the University of Wisconsin. ah he He was a huge dividing factor last year. He was negotiating with with Kansas the entire year on his NIL money. He was he was talking about it to everyone on the Wisconsin team and they're were not too many people that were all that sad to see him leave so what do you know we'll see what he he brings to the table and then the one other guys is florida dunga this yes nine forward excuse me from the congo he was kansas' big recruit five-star he chose kansas over auburn and he he's been starting now that uh... k j adams is out
00:27:19
Speaker
You know, like I said, they've only got two 10 plus point scores, but all that I mentioned can score
In-depth Discussion on Upcoming Kansas Match
00:27:28
Speaker
in double figures. All the other players couldn't score in double figures that they've been playing great D and what we're going to need to do is a, we're going to need to move the ball really well. B we're going to have to out physical them inside, but which unfortunately in fog, Alan could lead to a lot of fouls called against us. Yeah. Tuggler.
00:27:49
Speaker
ah ah above all else needs to avoid fouls if possible. yeah And our shooters just need to be comfortable and shoot. And yeah I see a really tight game, but but it's fog Allen, it's Kansas, and as you alluded to, Tom, it's probably also the officials. A lot to overcome.
00:28:14
Speaker
This is, this is the one that I thought was all along was the loss. So I'm not going to, as much as I could, so I could see us winning. I think and all those factors are going to lead to a 69, 65 Kansas win. Okay. so hey i got but Before you leave the discussion on Kansas, it'll be interesting to see what Kelvin does with Hunter Dickinson as far as monitoring the post. It'll be an interesting to see how we do that because Dickinson's like seven two. He's not a bad passer. Yeah. I mean, he will pass the ball. He's not a black holes, you know, so he will pass it every now and then. So it'll be interesting to see how we do again. So, uh, Dickinson, I know last year when we played him at fog Allen, he killed us. Yeah. He was just getting, yeah, with his passing, great post position and.
00:29:11
Speaker
um You know our monster couldn't it just wasn't good. I mean they just kind of carved us up In that game, but as we all know when they came back and played us again But it was a totally different story when we win that game by 30 something like that 30 points or so But so it'll be interesting ah your experience playing Dickinson, ah you know a lot of the same Kansas players. They don't have Fervy he's gone ah He heard us last year in that first game. They don't have Kevin McCullough and, uh, who else did they lose? I can't remember, but, uh, the shooter off the bat, you'll be able to see how Kelvin and staff go about defending, uh, Dickinson. I don't think we'll go one-on-one in the post, but you never know. Yeah. I mean, and I think we're a little bit different with a healthy.
00:30:02
Speaker
you know, Tugler as well. He's much quicker at making up ground, right? Especially after doubling in the post, if need be, I think. And JVA got hurt last year at Fog Allen early early in that he didn't play a whole lot. LJ had a really good shooting game. um But that can have kind of went out of hand. Yeah, he was the only one that kept us. That was a game where where Jamal Shedd missed that layup. I think he was only going for a dunk or he gets the back iron on the layup. Do you guys remember that? I do. And by the way, I like Craig Smith, the Utah coach, but it's Shedd and not Heade, like he said in the press conference. It's like, I think everybody knows it's Shedd. Well, Tom, I think that the answer to neutralizing
00:30:50
Speaker
Dickinson is not only quite simple, but quite obvious. After the game at Fertitta last year, let me begin then send it, send it said to beat him up. yeah Hey, you never know. We might see said for a minute or two, especially if you get foul trouble, probably definitely see him just, uh, just don't get set on the free throw line. That's all I'm saying. Hey, Bill, how about the West Virginia game?
West Virginia's Strengths and Weaknesses
00:31:15
Speaker
yeah but number twenty three west virginia wednesday at six o'clock and it's unfortunately we stuck on sp and plus which stinks but in a very recent game against them i i thought we'd win big playing him at home ah we came away with a seventy fifty four when sixteen point when this could have been a bigger when but west virginia who's really not a good outside shooting team shot the ball fairly well versus our defense. Juwan in that game went nuts inside for 22. LJ shot well, scored 18, and Wazuzon, he did everything. and ah Sharp played a solid game also. so ah yeah It was a good win. They just they they had a couple guys that that hit some shots.
00:32:07
Speaker
But yeah we were the better team. They just happened to hit shots and keep the game closer than I thought it would have been. I hate the term, and it's used all the time now, head of the snake. But in this case, it's actually quite applicable. Jevon Small, he he hit shots against us. He was three of five from three. He dished out eight assists. He only committed one turnover.
00:32:32
Speaker
in the game at Fertitta, he is outstanding. He's their point guard. He creates turnovers. He just does it all. And so he, not to say that he is West Virginia, but he is their superior player.
00:32:52
Speaker
Yeah, transferred in from Oklahoma State and he's just he's leading everything in their turnaround from last year. ah the The guy that I was beginning to allude to that hit some shots against us and scored eight straight in the second half to when they cut the lead to three was Imani Hansberry and he's kind of stepped up as coach, his son, Tucker DeVries has been absent, has been hurt and doesn't look like he's gonna, well,
00:33:22
Speaker
well we're still two games away so you could be back but it doesn't look like he will and uh... hands berry never up up quickly up until i was in a huge offense of threat but he's been shooting the ball a lot more and uh... i i think that's in the absence of degrees because they really don't have a lot of offense on that team up to be a connie jonathan powell They can hit some open shots if if they're completely uncovered, but they're not great threats shooting. And and West Virginia is just far more of a defensive team than than they are a good shooting team. They've also been, and Tom, you mentioned it, they've been really schizophrenic lately. that they They go in and they they beat ISU after the loss to us, and then they turn around at home and lose to Arizona State by eight. so
00:34:12
Speaker
they're a ah You know, they're a good defense, they're not a good offensive team, they're not a, they're an okay offensive team and Small scores a ton of points for them, but they're they're a much better defensive team. The thing is, if they're if their defense is good but not great, they're they can be susceptible to other teams that are playing well. ah We'll get a team somewhere in the middle of the,
00:34:41
Speaker
the ISU win and the ASU loss, I still think that they're not at our level and that we're a bad matchup for them. If we hound small, we'd make him get rid of the ball early, get a hand in their shooter's faces, rebound, we'll be just fine coming off of Kansas. And I have us winning 69-59.
Analytics-Driven Game Previews and Big 12 Discussion
00:35:04
Speaker
I mean, looking at it from an analytics perspective, Kansas first up this year is very different from what we've really historically known this program for, where they've been elite offensively and then excellent on D. They're number seven now in Ken Palm, 14 and four with a bunch of new kids joining the team from the portal.
00:35:26
Speaker
KU is 32 in adjusted offensive efficiency and number four in adjusted defensive efficiency where we're now 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency and number one in adjusted defensive efficiency. So it's basically two defensive heavyweights battling it out this Saturday.
00:35:44
Speaker
KU is heavily two-point dependent on offense this season, ranking number three in two-point distribution of points this season at 61% of their offense. That's very, very heavily weighted in that direction. But surprisingly, they don't shoot exceptionally well, number 67 in effective field goal percentage and 181st from three-point range and hence their heavy emphasis on two-point shooting.
00:36:10
Speaker
but Even from there, they're decent at 55.3% from two point range ranking 58th in the country based on Ken Palm on Diaz, where this KU team has been strong this year, ranking number six in effective field goal percentage D number 10 from three point range.
00:36:28
Speaker
and number six from two point range in Ken Palm. They still don't force a lot of turnovers, but where they've really upped things on defense this season is in blocking more shots. And this is where that new freshmen comes in, making the difference. Flory Bedunga, he's really up that blocking shots stat from previous seasons. Key for UH is going to be getting a healthy rested sharp back and continuing our recent ball movement and balance on offense. While on D,
00:36:57
Speaker
is you had highlighted Bill keeping Tugler out of foul trouble and shutting down the inside like we've been doing is going to be critical. Based on the metrics, this is supposed to be a one point win on the road for the Cougs based on Ken Palm. In my opinion, the reality is that KU will be focused. Fans will be jacked for this game. And Coach Sampson, if you can believe it, has never won in Lawrence, even going back to when he was at OU.
00:37:23
Speaker
So unfortunately, I'm also projecting this to be a loss, a 3.63 to 60 loss on the road. Then for West Virginia, we just played them coming in at number 42 in Ken Palm. So again, a tricky, good team. And they'll be focused after losing to us in Houston. West Virginia is 94th in adjusted ah offensive efficiency. And so that's good, not too bad. And they're excellent at number 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency, roughly about the same as when we played them just a few weeks ago.
00:37:53
Speaker
West Virginia and DeVries, however, now know how to play as having played that first game. So they should be better prepared on offense. They don't shoot the ball very well, ranking 175th in effective field goal percentage, but they tried to compensate that by taking just a bunch of threes. Almost 50% of their field goal attempts are from threes.
00:38:16
Speaker
And so on D West Virginia continues to get better and better challenging every shot, but is especially great at defending a three point line leading the conference at number seven in three point field goal percentage D. So I expect us to build a wall around the arc on D and continue to move the ball with a bounce inside out distribution of shots on offense in this game. This is a game that I projected a loss a few weeks ago.
00:38:42
Speaker
Then, I don't know, West Virginia inexplicably lost at home to ASU just two days ago. Coach's son is still not playing, which I did not expect to be the case, so I'm waffling a little bit now. Based on the metrics, this is projected to be a six point win for the Cougs on the road by Ken Palm. Based on what I've outlined above,
00:39:03
Speaker
I'm now predicting a win in this one, but still not changing my overall prediction of number of conference losses for UH. But at this point, I've projected a closer 62 to 58 four-point win on the road. Now, for the topic today, in light of taking over sole possession of first in the Big 12, three old guys are going to discuss the state of the Big 12 a bit. What are some of the surprise teams so far this season after seven games And how impressive is it really that we're in first place at this point, given the state of the Big 12? Bill, you want to go first around the state of the Big 12 and how you're feeling about being in sole possession of first at this point? Well, as you guys know, I'm the one that predicted us to have the fewest conference losses. So I'm not the least bit surprised that we're in first place.
00:39:55
Speaker
and yeah i think i think will probably at some point be tied with iowa state but then we're going to end up getting them at home and i think we if they're going to lose again we're gonna lose again but we were where i expected us to be and i think we're where we're going to be throughout the remainder of the season so no surprise there and fat looking at the standings Quite honestly, there's really only one team that that that's faring a bit better than I thought they would, actually much better, even though they're only four and three in conference, and one team that's not faring nearly as well. Obviously, it's our upcoming opponent who we've already beaten, West Virginia, who's at four and three. There'll be five new starters coming in this year.
00:40:52
Speaker
I thought it would take DeVries some time and clearly it hasn't and he's winning games without it his son, who's a really good player. So West Virginia is obviously the surprise yeah and they've won nine of 11 at home, which is very solid. They're 13 and five, but they're ranked 23rd right now. and If we can go into Kansas and knock off the Jayhawks, that could be two back-to-back Quad 1 wins, which unfortunately the the naysayers are crying about right now. And my response to that is if
00:41:35
Speaker
Jordan and the Bulls that had been playing in a division in a smaller conference and played no quad one teams would that mean that there are You know, they should be ranked ah one guy from CBS has his ranked 18th right now does that mean that they should be ranked low because I mean God at some point the eye test has to come into it and and ah in any event, uh, the, the one team that surprises me and, and surprises me a lot. This is actually the biggest surprise to me is Cincinnati. Yeah. Agreed. I mean, they're 12 and six overall. So that, you know, they've got the same record as Baylor. They, said they've got the same record as, as BYU overall, they've, uh, they're only one, they've got the same record as Arizona. Uh, they're only one game worse than West Virginia. So overall,
00:42:29
Speaker
Overall, the records are pretty similar, but two and five in conference, and they're losing games that I did not expect them to. They're playing poorly. and Well, they're playing inconsistently. We'll leave it at that, but leaning toward poorly. But the other teams that are at the bottom, Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, ASU, I thought ASU would be a little better. You know, TCU, Utah.
00:42:59
Speaker
I think we all expected them to be where they are. You know, maybe a little better for BYU, but, you know, three and four. And the other thing is we're not even at the midway point yet. And, you know, if you're right around 500 in the conference, there's an opportunity to to turn things around and make a run. The teams that are three and four, BYU, Utah,
00:43:24
Speaker
uh... use the f is three and four despite they're good wins and then they're almost to win against us it one when and they've got they've got the same record as baylor same record as west virginia so i mean it's it's a really tight conference right now and and you know even off at seven and all i was stating and arizona six and one there there on our heels uh... yeah i you know tech tech is uh...
00:43:54
Speaker
Texas at five and two as well as Kansas. I mean, the the teams that you expect up toward the top or at the top and, uh, but it's, but it's, it's bunched right now. And, uh, so what's going on other than those two teams really doesn't surprise me, especially Cincinnati. Okay. How about you, Tom, what's your take on the state of the the conference as well as our sole possession of first place? Yeah, I'll go first with, uh, no surprises. I'm looking at the bottom.
00:44:23
Speaker
And in my predictions, I had Colorado was, uh, you know, one of the bottom four teams. I had Oklahoma state. I had Arizona state. And yeah, I had them as a bottom feeders. Then you look at the top. I had the Cougs. I had Iowa state. I had Kansas. The one team I did, I think having my top four, I believe was Baylor. They're sitting at four and three. I guess the surprise team at the top would be Arizona.
00:44:53
Speaker
I had them, I believe fifth in the conference behind Baylor had, I think I had, you che us I had Iowa state, I had Kansas, I had Baylor, and I think I had Arizona. And I was even talking about Arizona, maybe even finishing six and Texas tech finishing hired them the way Arizona was playing early in the season before conference play started. But we also have to consider.
00:45:18
Speaker
but We've only played seven games. There's still 13 more games to play. It's a 16 team conference. So every team hasn't played each other at least once ah yet, but over the next 13 games, the wheat will separate from, you know, the wheat will separate from the shaft and they'll probably be some small shuffling at the bottom of the standings and maybe some shuffling towards the top. But, uh, as it stands right now.
00:45:47
Speaker
Uh, it looks like it's probably, uh, I'd say a four team race for the championship. But like I said, you know, there's a lot of basketball to be played. You never know about injuries, you know, Galen quotes Kelvin by saying every team's just one rolled ankle for mediocrity. And yeah that is, you know, that is, that is so true. You know, as Coug fans, we know that from the last couple of years, well, up with all these injuries, but but we do have more depth than other teams, but there's a lot of teams that.
00:46:16
Speaker
If they have a key guy go down, it could be catastrophic for them. I mean, obviously states it's playing out. They're not playing with Momsilovich, Kansas without KJ Adams for a couple of games, even though people on the KU boards are saying, they're saying KJ clogs everything up in the middle. They brought it better offensively without him in there. There's a lot of hate for him on the KU boards. So, wow you know, we'll just have to see the schedule play out. And ah yeah, there's a lot of basketball to be played.
00:46:47
Speaker
Yeah, completely by the way, I should give you guys some credit or maybe take a shot at myself. I forgot to mention this and I'm looking right at it now. I had Baylor finishing ahead of Iowa State and you two both vehemently disagreed with me and the two of you are. It looks like will be absolutely right. Yeah, Baylor's the one team.
00:47:14
Speaker
out of the top one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight that has a losing record on the road. And they're, they're a bit schizophrenic and yeah, they're clearly not at Iowa state's level. So yeah congratulations to you too. Us, us and the Cyclones, we're the, we're the two toughest teams in the league from a physical and a mental standpoint. And you know, that's what you need to win to win on the road. So.
00:47:43
Speaker
I see us battling out for the the top spot the rest of the year. Yeah. So I actually took a look at our consensus as well as individual projections of the Big 12 from our preseason episode as well. In the top we did have UH, KU, ISU, Arizona, Tech, and BYU in the top eight. So getting six of eight is actually pretty good, pretty accurate on that front.
00:48:06
Speaker
The big two surprises you guys have already mentioned in West Virginia and Cincy on both sides, good and bad, so I'm not going to go into any of the details there. And I agree with you. I find it very impressive that we're actually in sole possession of First and the Big 12 after being. We're over a third of the way through the conference slate, but still very cautious since the heavy lifting on our schedule is just about to begin starting this week.
00:48:31
Speaker
But you know some fans have actually stated on the forums that the Big 12 is down this season. So leading the way isn't as impressive, you know quote unquote, as it was last season or historically speaking, especially now with UT and OU both gone as well. So I actually took a closer look at from an analytics perspective to see if that way of thinking was accurate or not, or if it was just some anomaly with the SEC having a special season this season.
00:49:01
Speaker
And I use both Ken Palm and Bart Torvick advanced analytics for my deep dive here. And you know what? Yeah. So the big 12 is currently rated number three. amongst all the conferences this season behind the SEC and the Big 10, according to Ken Palm. And then if you look at Bart Porvick, we're number two behind the SEC, where historically in the Big 12 has been pretty consistently number one over eight of the past 10 seasons, according to both sites. But if you go deeper into the numbers, and if you look at the Big 12, as of this day, according to the metrics, Ken Palm,
00:49:35
Speaker
when you look at their median net rating as he calls it within the conference of mean plus 16.88, basically how he measures conference strength, is actually higher than last season's country leading, even with UTNOU in our conference, at 16.66 for the Big 12. Same thing with Bart Torvic, where his raw power rating for the Big 12 of 0.8747 this season is higher than even last season's country leading 0.8662. In fact, if you comb through
00:50:10
Speaker
previous decades worth of data. This season's Big 12 raw strength rating score from both sites has been higher than half of the conference scores historically. So the bottom line is, as much grousing as there's been out there around the Big 12's lack of strength this season, strict number wise, it's absolutely not the case. This season is basically amounting to what an average year for the conference has been over You know the past decade from an advanced analytics perspective and you know what guys guess what? After Houston wins the national title this season that whole BS narrative around the SEC's strength this year and hoops will be long forgotten so I'm gonna leave it there. That's I still will argue and we talked about it previously ah top to bottom
00:51:04
Speaker
I believe the SEC is better. I think they're definitely better this year. But top is the U of H. And in the end, I couldn't care less which conference has the better rating. ah I care about who's going to be cutting down the nets in San Antonio. And I'm still 100% convinced that it's going to be us. So you know that's great.
00:51:28
Speaker
that the big 12 is not as strong as the SEC. And I'm a hundred percent behind that. I've watched enough yeah teams from both conferences to, you know, using my eye test. I think without question, the SEC top to bottom is better, but I who and absolutely do not care who's going to win. Who's going to win it all. And it's, then i and am convinced it's going to be U of H. Yeah, we hope so.
00:51:58
Speaker
So that's it for our 40th episode of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, we'd really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcasts, depending on your podcast platform of choice.
Conclusion and Listener Engagement
00:52:09
Speaker
We are also available via the Republican Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as the only basketball center podcast, or at the gocooks.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way.
00:52:22
Speaker
We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account. No conference for old men. Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout next week to download and listen as our next episode drops. Take care.