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Houston Now 5-0 in Conference & Tied Atop the XII Standings
81 Plays3 months ago
Welcome to Episode #39 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast. Apologies for the original recording file having issues, a new version has been uploaded on Jan 18th.
Our Houston Cougars are now 13-3 & 5-0 in the XII after smothering both KSU & WVU. Houston's been rolling over the last 9 games since Vegas, with both offense & defense humming along at this point. Next up are UCF & Utah this next week. The 3 Old Men review the 2 games played & preview the upcoming games this week with no topic for debate given the quick turnaround to publish after a Wed game.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on gocoogs.com/old-men/
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Transcript
Podcast Introduction and Overview
00:00:07
Speaker
Welcome folks to episode number 39 of the Real Conference for Old Men podcast. Podcasts where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well, and proud members of the Goku's dot.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
Houston Cougars' Recent Victories
00:00:24
Speaker
Well, another week and our big red machine continues to churn through big 12 opponents as the Cougars smothered Kansas State 87-57 in the Little Apple and then turned around for a 70-54 win at home versus a tricky West Virginia team that had already beaten the Zags, Arizona, and Kansas in Lawrence this season.
00:00:45
Speaker
Now the Scroogers team has kept their last nine opponents under 57 points since Vegas. And we'll try to keep things rolling with another pair of games this week at UCF this Saturday and then returning home versus Utah. With two games to review plus another two to preview.
00:01:02
Speaker
and a quick turnaround published given yesterday's Wednesday game. No formal topic for the three omen to debate this week. But since we're in the middle of Big 12 play, we will begin to summarize one other key Big 12 game starting this week with the Baylor and Arizona game being the one this week.
00:01:20
Speaker
So let's get into it, guys, in looking at our two big 12 wins this week. Let's begin with postgame analyses of the 87 to 57 destruction of Kansas State in Manhattan, as well as the 70 to 54 win last night over West Virginia. That was closer than the score indicates. Let's start with you first, Tom.
Coaches' Insights and Game Strategies
00:01:40
Speaker
What were some of the things you saw from a coach's perspective in the two games? Well, first off, it was just a complete annihilation of K-State.
00:01:49
Speaker
We go into Bremelage Coliseum. They like to call it the octagon of doom. It was more like the octagon of gloom. It was kind of interesting start. It was nine to eight K-State at the first time out, the under 16 timeout. K-State had hit three threes. And I think it was that white guard that was left open on some skip passes. He hit three threes. They were rhythm shots. Awesome. But after that, it was, it was pulling pickings for K-State.
00:02:20
Speaker
And one thing I i got from Kelvin's radio show the other day is he was talking about West Virginia. He was previewing that game. And he was talking about how within that first couple of minutes of the game, you can see what, see what the coaches ah for the opposition, what their game plan is. And I think what happened there is, you know, first couple of minutes Kelvin saw with the game plan for K stateless. And then, and then we made some adjustments or whatever. And then from there on, it was, ah it was, it was all Cougs 46, 24 and a half.
00:02:54
Speaker
Shout out to JVA for his off offensive rebounding. I think he's really coming on that long layoff. He had almost three weeks of no practice. you know ah He's surrounding rounding into mid-season form. I do want to say something about Juwan. Juwan had a really good game. He started on Coleman Hawkins and Coleman. ah Did not play like Connie Hawkins. $2 million dollars for that garbage, yeah that guy.
00:03:22
Speaker
he he was He was almost like the MVP of our team. Horrible body language. Palms up. Head shaken. Some really, really bad turnover. Good look ah for ah for case data ah for $2 million. dollars yeah The guy's just a head case. so And Coach Tang has two two more months with him.
00:03:46
Speaker
Uh, anyway, make a long story short, complete, uh, thumping, uh, the damage had been done in the first half. So the second half got a little bit of sluggish, sluggish, but you know, like I said, damage had been done and you know, we rolled to that 30 point victory. Nice. How about the West Virginia game, Tom?
Game Challenges and Strategic Adjustments
00:04:10
Speaker
West Virginia game. Yeah. That was another one that had an interesting start kind of like the K state game, you know, at the under 16 West Virginia came out on fire. You know, it looked like an offensive shootout, which with it with with our team on, but, you know, for every shot that West Virginia hit, you know, Juwan came back and ah and And hit one and then up like Kelvin has said in that in that radio show, you know It must have been a situation where they came out Kelvin sees what West Virginia's game plan is gonna be and he makes the proper adjustments on defense and then We put them down ah down ah You got to give West Virginia a like credit those guys play hard at 16 point
00:04:58
Speaker
Uh, you know, the end of the game is 16 point win for the Cougs, but it didn't feel like a 16 point, uh, point when it was, I know there's some, some, uh, situations in the game, they cut it to three. We hit, you know, I think we had 13 or 14 point lead. They cut it to three. And then I think LJ came in and hit like three threes right in a row. Those, those were huge for, uh, for, for LJ to can, uh, and, and stop the bleeding. But yeah, great win for the Cougs held them to what 54.
00:05:28
Speaker
another game that we held opponents under, ah what does is it? C57 55. Well, they were talking about this yeah historical run for, for U of H basketball, going back to, to, you know, like 1947 and well back then they shot two hands, set shots. And I think there were still laces on the ball. So ah there's no comparison. This is, you know, historical it's doing it against big 12 competition, doing it against some excellent, excellent coaches.
00:05:55
Speaker
But a great win for the great win for the Cougs. Yeah, definitely. I can say another another sound. It just seems like this team is consistent for the effort. All that is consistent. And, you know, you probably have to factor in maturity there. We got a veteran team and, and, you know, the maturity is, ah is, is, is showing up. Yeah. No kidding. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective for the two games?
00:06:25
Speaker
Well, the most important takeaway I think from this game is, hooray for me. As I predicted, K-State would score 57 and they did. Sadly, I did not predict us correctly and underestimated how well we'd play in the offensive end. I had us winning 77-57 instead of 87-57. So ah I'll try to do better.
00:06:51
Speaker
better analyzing our offense and and ah predicting those scores. but But I really thought that K-State would play better at home. The students weren't back from break, but you know they they they play well at home, and students are no students. I thought it would be a little closer, obviously.
00:07:12
Speaker
As has been mentioned, as you mentioned, Tom, this was completely over at halftime. The first half, we out rebounded them 22 to 9. We committed zero turnovers. We only committed four fouls, which is maybe even more impressive than the zero turnovers.
00:07:29
Speaker
and you know we're we're a we're a guard heavy scoring team and we outscored them 28 to 6 in the point yeah i mean in the paint in the first half uh not a bad first half but then 44 to 20 16 of those boards were offensive uh again if we had hit one more three we would have shot over 50 for the game and we would have shot 50 from three so That's a pretty impressive Stat to be bringing up, you know more often than once because we are shooting the ball very well and and the offense and I know Steve you'll get into the efficiency but the offense has has really been I'll mention three U of H players and I'll mention a couple of K state players one of whom Tom you you mentioned and and ah and he deserves a little more time unfortunately and where everyone that played for U of H did look good.
00:08:26
Speaker
sharpened tugler i thought were exceptionally strong in the first half and they were really key to the twenty two point halftime lead well tugler was was just all over the place he was on the boards everything and yeah if he can avoid foul trouble i i think that's going to continue uh... men and uh... tom you mentioned him how about frances eleven points and like Wilson, who I've been mentioning recently, Francis is playing more confidently, more aggressively, and he looked great.
Player Analysis and Team Dynamics
00:09:00
Speaker
I i i think Kelvin should consider playing him the full 40 minutes with stats like that. He could he could be scoring about 32 and grabbing 25 boards a game. ah Play himself right into the NBA draft pick. ah but We totally shut down.
00:09:21
Speaker
K state's leading score. I mentioned the two players. We shut down their leading score and rebounder, Ghassan. He had five points. He had five boards for the game. And then next we have, Tom, your favorite, Coleman Hawkins. I mean, this guy is actually a very skilled 6'10 forward.
00:09:40
Speaker
But and as you were kind of referring to, if he played as physically as he complains to the refs, he'd be a first-team All-American for sure. ah Kansas State would be a much better team if he would stop complaining. I mean, he's got an NBA 610 body. you just he He plays around the perimeter, and ah ah ah and they really need help inside. like side and ah Robert to school. they' It's almost like they're playing with five guards, even though they've got a 6'9 and a 6'10 player. They've got a good team.
00:10:20
Speaker
McDaniel is a very solid point guard. Hawson, as he had brought up Tom, he's a great shooter. Jones is a is a versatile small forward. But big the two big guys, their two leading scorers, are probably the two least physical big men that I've ever seen. And ah you know without without any physical presence inside,
00:10:46
Speaker
They're going to continue to struggle and and they're going to get crushed just like they did against us. And but that was the case from start to finish. yeah ah The next game that was last night, 7054 over West Virginia.
00:11:11
Speaker
And we'd win buy thirty one if he didn't well just move on yeah like i said this is a much closer game than i thought it would be ah in our preview, I said that the Virginia was okay at everything, but not a great shooting team, team ah except for DeVries, who didn't play. As it turned out, West Virginia did shoot very well for them, especially from three. We got up a number of times and it looked like we were going to
00:11:42
Speaker
blow things open and they really, it was three pointers that they, that it brought them back into it, got them back to but within three in the second half and ah that they shot much better better than than they have throughout the season and much better than I thought that they would. Uh, we talked about Javon Smarter, they're almost 20 point per game score, who K shooter, but but I mean, he came out hot, he hit threes, he hit three of five for the game and, and, uh, and, uh,
00:12:11
Speaker
played well and then one other guy that i'd mentioned who came off the bench and this was the guy that led their their second half-run amani handsbury you know he in again solid player about six eight but but doesn't shoot well at all and he comes off the bench and he hits six of eight shots three ah this this should and based on the way west virginia typically plays this have been a twenty five point plus where when ah it had had they not shot the ball quite well for them. Our offense continues to play really well, you know really efficiently. yeah I meant that that were we were bigger and Roberts really lit them up inside. yeah
00:12:55
Speaker
you know we really did focus the offense we were going into him consider they're not a great inside team our ball movement i thought was almost pristine and it allowed both crier and sharp to hit open threes and uh... just a really really strong offensive game again especially in the first half where we scored I'll mention Yuuzhan he only scored eight points but he led the team with seven boards four assists he spent a lot of that game defending small who ended up only scoring 13 after after hitting those threes early and small
00:13:34
Speaker
played a pretty good game dishing out an impressive eight assists, but I love seeing him guarding him. He guarded him very well. kept him from from ah ah There were a couple of questionable calls, but I think once we get into it with the bigger, more athletic teams like Arizona, like Kansas, Iowa State, and to us some a smaller extent, even Cincy,
00:14:02
Speaker
tugler needs to be on the floor and i mean you can't help but just absolutely love his aggressive defensive place he's all over the place he helps he he deflects balls he certainly blocked shots but but he also picks up fouls that he shouldn't be picking on and it's leading to him playing less than than You know, you know every every other starter on the team, and and this was a game where this was the game where where there wasn't a lot of bench plays. Wilson played some minutes, Arsenault as well, but four of the five starters played almost 30 or more minutes, and the one who didn't, of course, was Tuggler,
00:14:46
Speaker
ah because of the foul trouble. and We're going to get into some upcoming games that are a little more challenging, and ah and we definitely need him on the floor in those games. But overall, another really solid win. Yeah, agreed.
Analytical Breakdown of Games
00:15:00
Speaker
From an analytics perspective, looking at the Kansas State game, another defensive masterpiece by Coach Sampson and his Cougars team, disrupting all aspects of Kansas State's game plan in the 87 to 57 win.
00:15:12
Speaker
An offense we continued, as you guys had mentioned, the quick ball, blue inside-outside balance, which I've really, really loved to watch over the last nine games or so. We ended up at 53.6% effective field goal percentage, 42.9% from three-point range, and then 51% from two, with five different guys scoring in double figures, three from the inside. And to further demoralize this Kansas State team, we added 16 offensive rebounds as well.
00:15:41
Speaker
On defense, we just ended up intimidating Kansas State by harassing them over the full 40 minutes. With no easy looks inside, they shot an anemic 41% from two point range and had turnovers on 22.5% of their possessions. If it wasn't for their 40%,
00:15:59
Speaker
shooting from three, the score would have been far worse. And here's the key stat of the game, guys. If you can believe it, we had 22 more field goal attempts than Kansas State, 69 to 47. I don't think I've ever seen a stat line like that. And that level of distance we've been doing this podcast quite honestly. So just a a dominating win versus Kansas State.
00:16:24
Speaker
Now for the tricky game versus West Virginia from an analytics perspective, we continued to reinforce the same formula as the kids get more and more comfortable with our balance style of offense this season. This game had more ebbs and flows and the team got challenged more times than the 70-54 score would indicate on indicate.
00:16:43
Speaker
On ah offense, we continued the stellar ball movement and inside-outside balance against another top 25 D. We shot extremely well again as our offense is now humming 60% effective field goal percentage, 42% from three and 56% from two-point range. With Roberts, as you guys had mentioned, the man inside having his way with a career-high 22 points, while Cryer, Sharp and Arsenal all took turns bombing away from three-point range.
00:17:10
Speaker
On defense, we were playing against a West Virginia team that was very disciplined on offense, where they ended up shooting 54.6% effective vehicle percentage and a very impressive 41% from three point range. But we were still able to force turnovers on 22% of their possessions and grab 21 defensive rebounds to limit their possessions.
00:17:32
Speaker
We also clamped down inside the paint, blocking 22% of their shots, resulting in their shooting only 47.6% from two-point range. So the Cougars are now a perfect 5-0 in conference to tie Iowa State and Arizona atop the Big 12. So for this week, let's review a game from one of those two fellow leaders on the board in Arizona as they just beat Baylor 81 to 70 at home.
Arizona's Performance Against Baylor
00:17:58
Speaker
Bill, what's your sound bite from a player's perspective in that Arizona Baylor game? I think Arizona is starting to play a lot better than they were early, a lot better than they historically played. History of losing to teams, to teams that are that are well-disciplined, that take care of the ball, that that play defense, that rebound. Old Wisconsin teams were invented and O'Ryan. and They went up against Arizona a few times and we played when they were a one seed a few years ago in the tournament and then we just just annihilated struggled against I thought against Baylor that they actually looked much better coached ah they moved the ball they they hit the boards they didn't run and watch they they looked more disciplined recently than I've seen them look in the past and
00:18:51
Speaker
They are more of a challenge and will be more of a challenge. I would have said just maybe a week and a half or two weeks ago. Yeah. Tom, how about you from a coach's perspective in the Baylor Arizona game?
00:19:04
Speaker
Yes, kind of surprising. I mean, Arizona did lose to some good teams, but they didn't look ah ah good losing, if that makes any kind of sense. Yeah. ah The knock on Arizona ever since. but What's his name's got their their coach. get um I'm drawing a blank here. Anyway, Tommy Lloyd, the knock on his teams has been the toughness issue. ah Very good on offense. Here's his term again, pretty offense, and's ah but just kind of soft.
00:19:33
Speaker
and that in the toughness area, you know, last few years under Lloyd, they they just like beat the crap out of, ah ah you know, tomato cans in the non-conference. And then when it gets to the nitty gritty and they start playing some really, really tough teams like, you know, like us and Iowa State, you know, then and the the toughness issue comes up. But, you know, 42 to 19 at halftime, I think they discovered defense. Yeah.
00:19:59
Speaker
which which can be kind of scary because we know how, you know, how, how good of an offensive team Arizona can be under, under coach Lloyd. Yeah. I mean, this was two big 12 contenders and top 20 Ken Palm teams lacing it up for a fight. Granted Baylor was without two key players for this game.
00:20:20
Speaker
But from an analytics perspective, the highlight was that Arizona took advantage of Baylor's number 46 adjusted defensive efficiency D to shoot a sizzling 50% from three point range and 55% from two point range. While on D Arizona did not allow Baylor clean looks from three, resulting in Baylor shooting only 30% from three point range. Arizona also forced turnovers on 19% of Baylor's possessions.
00:20:46
Speaker
So Arizona, as you guys have both said, is rounding into contender form in the Big 12 after a sluggish start to the season. So now we move on to two more games this upcoming week for Houston at UCF and then a trip back home versus Utah.
Upcoming Games Preview
00:21:01
Speaker
Tom, what's your coach's take about the next two games?
00:21:05
Speaker
UCF will be on the road, I think that's 11 a.m. game on Saturday morning. morning ah Frankly, UCF, they just still remind me of an American athletic conference. job you know kind of like Kind of like the talent personnel in their roster, and they did so-so in the American, and then now they jump to the Big 12 and just suffer competition. They're quite capable of swinging an upset because somebody once said there's no upsets at home.
00:21:33
Speaker
ah But with our maturity things against UCF and the Utah game When we go ahead with that one's tall game. I thought Utah might win Three conference. Well, maybe maybe four and then they they beat TCU on the road the other day And I watched them play a little bit this year and you know, I don't think they're very very good I think they're really gonna struggle against our ah quickness and athleticism Yeah, no, I agree. How about you, Bill? What's your brief preview of both games from a player's perspective? Well, UCF right now, they're 12 and 4. They are over 500 in the conference. They're 3 and 2.
00:22:18
Speaker
there yeah that there are They're an OK team offensively. They're an OK team defensively. They're they're not you know they're they're an team is in terms of protecting the ball. they're they're they're not great, they're not terrible at anything. When we made early season predictions, the conference predictions, I think this is one that thought that UCF would be ah a bit more of a surprise in the Big 12, and it looked great following their opening game wait where they beat A. yeah Currently, they're still looking okay. I mean, 12 and 4, 32 is fine right now, but you play a lot of weeknight conference teams.
00:22:57
Speaker
They were crushed at home by 51. And this would have been a revenge game after they beat Kansas at home last year. But Kansas beat them by 51 at UCF. And they recently lost by eight at Arizona, who we know is playing well. But UCF is also one at Tech, and then they they won by a point at Colorado, and they won easily at Arizona State. so Inconsistent. They're looking okay right now. that ah you know well We'll see. They have us on Saturday, and then they go to Ames on Monday. So you know these these two games in three-day, you're talking about Steve, this is this is as brutal a two-game
00:23:48
Speaker
stretch as as there could possibly be. So I'm anticipating a 12 and 4, 3 and 2 in conference, UCF to...they will be 12 and 6, 3 and 4 in the conference. The main guys protect a focus on every good Are there are there they're two starting guards and they're small forward small forward is their leading score key Sean Hall six seven And he can he could handle the ball small forward. He's averaging 17 and a half points six and a half boards 43 and a half percent from the field and 35 percent from three. He's a transfer from George Mason. He's one to
00:24:30
Speaker
to keep an eye on for sure. Darius Johnson, he's back from last year, 6-1 point guard, 15 points, four boards, three steals, three turnovers, four assists a game, 42% from both the field and from three. Jordan Ivey Curry is a 6-3 shooting guard. He's from Lamar, a player that's that's from here.
00:24:56
Speaker
14.5 points. He's shooting ah just under 40% from the field and only hits a third of his three, so he he's he's a scorer, but he's not a shooter. Two players is that that may or may not play in this game, I might not otherwise bring them up, but um they've got a 7'2 freshman who's who's projected to be an NBA player named Mustafa Thiam.
00:25:21
Speaker
ah He's from Senegal. He averages seven and a half points, five boards, but two and a half blocks. ah He's also attempted 15 threes this year. He's hit four of them. ah He missed the ASU game with an injury, but I've read that he fully expects to play against U of H, but you knowll we'll stay tuned on that one.
00:25:43
Speaker
the is their best returning player, 6-4 shooting guard named Jalen Sellers. He averaged about 14 points for them last year. He's their best player but he has been injury plagued for the past couple of years and he's missed numerous games this year with a back injury. He's only played in three games and he is he is on track to be back for you of age but but that's you know we'll see maybe maybe not he is a phenomenal shooter of this team this is a versatile team they can score especially from the perimeter and especially if they're healthy the ah unfortunately for them we defend the perimeter we will likely force a number of turnover
00:26:32
Speaker
um Logically, it appears that Cryer will be playing against the point guard, Johnson. Sharp will be on Curry. And that'll allow him to, I think, help quite a bit. And then Yuzan, I imagine, will be on their 6'7 small forward and leading score hall. And and i and i I like that matchup. At the same time,
00:26:54
Speaker
They're an OK defensive team, but I think we're going to score more easily in this game than we have in previous games. And what makes UCF intriguing are obviously the two players that have been hurt. If they're back, this could be quite a bit more of a challenge. If they're out, out, it's a blowout. And I'm just going to go ahead and make one prediction. I say we win 85-66.
00:27:38
Speaker
ah or You know, they're somewhere kind of in the middle. I think they believe you'll be able to touch on this more in terms of the Ken Palm numbers, you know, in conference, they lost their first three games and they lost big. They lost by 25 at Baylor 28 versus tech.
00:27:55
Speaker
at home against Tech, 23 at Iowans. They beat the bottom feeders. Oklahoma State, they beat them by 21. And they just, as you mentioned, Tom, last night, they surprised a lot of people, including me, by winning at TCU by eight. They do have BYU prior to us, and they should probably prior to us. ah You know, BYU can be up and down so you never know but but but Utah's probably gonna come in on a bit of a losing streak. Craig Smith's their coach and in my opinion he's been a bit of an underachieve. We had a tight game with them last year, many of you will remember, and they should have been an NCAA tournament team. They were deep, they had agreed they had a lot of good shooters, they had
00:28:43
Speaker
big man and who were versatile. And as it turns out, they made they only made it to the um to the NIT and lost in the semis. They're not nearly as good this year. ah And I think against a solid or in this case a great defensive team that's athletic they are going to struggle to get off shots their best player is gay madson he's back from last year he played well against us last year six six shooting guard he's averaging sixteen point two points a game he's only playing twenty eight minutes and i'll get to that in a minute uh... he's their best player but nothing statistically this year that really stands out shooting
00:29:29
Speaker
His twin brother, Mason, 6'4 guard, he transferred in, he's played two years at Cincy and then two at BC, he transferred in 6'4. He's averaging 10 points in 20 minutes a game, again the minute. He shoots 42.5% from 3, so he's a good shooter. He's also missed the last four games with a hip injury, but a relapse, he should be fine when he plays against us. So assume that he will play. Other two that I'll mention, loss and levering. He played a lot for them last year, transfer from Colorado, seven foot one center, 10 points this year, a game, five boards, three assists.
00:30:14
Speaker
ah Overwhelming majority of his scoring will be inside. And then, ah when Madsen's been out, his name is Jake ah Wallen. It's either Waylander Wallen, W-A-H-L-I-N. He's a 610 soft one. Waleen, I think. Waleen, okay. I'll defer to you on that. 610, he will be all over the boards, so he'll be a battler inside. and He has a every capability of putting up ah you know, maybe 10 points that I mentioned them. I mentioned them plays a ton and they've got 11 players on this team that are averaging 10 or more minutes a game. So they're, they're deep. They're not good there, but they're deep and they'll play a lot of players, a lot of maybe mediocre players.
00:31:02
Speaker
I see Utah's trend of playing a lot of guys and maybe continuing against us. I think the starters will probably be pulled maybe maybe baby eight to 10 minutes into the second half because it's I think this game is going to get as early as is almost any game we've played this year. They're just not going to be able to compete with us on an aggressiveness, an athletic and anything level.
00:31:30
Speaker
saying that we're going to win this game by 35 is probably being kind to them, especially at Fertitta. I think it just depends quite honestly on how much Jefferson and and and said play playing by the by the 10 minute mark of the second half. it ah Who knows? Maybe it could be a little closer. ah I think, I think Mercy is going to see a lot of time in this game, certainly sets up for that. And I have us winning 88, 48. Okay. Wow. Big
Expectations for Houston vs Utah
00:32:02
Speaker
win. I mean, when I look at the two games from an analytics perspective, UCF has only been good.
00:32:10
Speaker
as you guys had mentioned, but boy, they're super athletic this year and actually fun to watch for me so far. I've actually watched a few of their games. They're number 73 now in Ken Palm at 12 and four with a whole new roster this year. So that's been somewhat of an adjustment. They're 59th in adjusted ah offensive efficiency and 98th in adjusted defensive efficiency, where we're now up to 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency and number one in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season.
00:32:40
Speaker
yeah UCF is still shooting the ball very poorly on offense, just like last season, ranking 237th in effective field goal percentage. But the big difference this season is that they are getting to the line a lot, driving the basket and making free throws at a very strong clip, ranked 33rd in free throw percentage. On defense where UCF has been actually pretty strong the past two seasons, they have dropped off precipitously down to 98th in Ken Palm.
00:33:09
Speaker
But again, it's really misleading, because they're one of these teams when you watch them play are deceptively long and athletic. So we can't sleep on them on that side of the ball either. But as long as we continue our recent ball movement and balance, our stellar shooting as of late will be difficult to stop. While on D, as long as we stay away from fouling too much, which we've actually been really good at this season other than Tugler, it's going to be tough for a poor shooting UCF team to score very many points.
00:33:39
Speaker
Based on the metrics, this is projected to be a 12-point win for the Cougs on the road by Ken Palm. UCF just seems on their Arizona swing. So I think they will be focused and eager now that they're back at home. But we're hot right now. It will be too much for UCF. And I'm projecting actually a 15-point win, 68 to 53 on the road.
00:34:00
Speaker
And then for Utah, they're not as good as last season coming at 71st in Ken Palm. So roughly in the same range as UCF. But I would argue far less upside on this roster versus UCF when you do a comparison.
00:34:15
Speaker
Utah is 72nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 76th in adjusted defensive efficiency. So they're balanced in terms of that good team overall. Utah is a very good shooting team, actually, on offense, ranking 47th in effective field goal percentage, and especially good from two point range, where they're ranked 40th in camp pump, hitting our threshold of being excellent. But everything else is just middling.
00:34:40
Speaker
And then on D, this is where Utah challenges every shot ranking 34th in effective field goal percentage D and are particularly great at defending inside the art ranking 19th in two point percentage D in Ken Palm. So expect us to rely more on the three point shot in this game.
00:34:56
Speaker
I believe that will make it tough for Utah with our D, especially from two point range with our number one shot blocking bigs inside the paint. On offense, as I mentioned, Utah doesn't have the horses to stay with our guards from three point range. So ah if you look at the metrics, this is projected to be a 19 point win for the Cougs at home by Ken Pong.
00:35:16
Speaker
yeah And Utah's won two in a row, but I think the matchup with us is just not a good one for them. So I've projected a 78 to 55 23 point win at home.
Podcast Closing Remarks
00:35:29
Speaker
So that's it for our slightly more abbreviated 39th episode of the No Conference World Band podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, we'd really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via the Republic of Football podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as the only basketball-centric podcast, or at goku.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way.
00:35:55
Speaker
We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account. No conference for old men. Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout next week to download and listen as our next episode drops. Take care. of you