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BYU & TCU Previews + Conference Record Needed for UH to Win the XII?
70 Plays5 months ago
Welcome to Episode #37 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
Apologies up front, with the slight technical challenges faced by one of the old men that impacted part of the game preview segment (we'll let you guess who that was). But our Houston Cougars are now 9-3 after smothering Oklahoma St in their XII opener. Now we hit our 1st Sat/Big Mon pair of games in week 2 of Conference play, facing BYU Sat & TCU on Mon. These almost back-to-back games in the Big 12 are a particular grind for all teams involved. So the Old Men preview the games, but will then pivot to tackle the question of the week: "Conference Record Needed for UH to Win the Big 12"?
Please have a listen as the 3 Old Men weigh in and discuss the topic of the week, as well as provide some quick-hit game summaries and previews.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on gocoogs.com/old-men/
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Transcript
Introduction and Focus on Houston Basketball
00:00:08
Speaker
folks, to episode number 37 of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. Podcasts where three old guys are talking Houston and Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well. And proud members of the gocoups.com network, the undisputed number one Houston and Cougars content provider.
Houston's Performance Post-Vegas
00:00:24
Speaker
Well, the team continued to build on the adjustments post Vegas trip as the players continue to show improvement as the Cougars dismantled Oklahoma State to open Big 12 play on the road.
00:00:36
Speaker
It was a rude welcoming to the Big 12 for coach Steve Lutz as his vastly improved Cowboys lost 60 to 47 at home with a score really not indicative of the beat down the Cougars unleashed.
Upcoming Games Preview: BYU and TCU
00:00:48
Speaker
We now quickly turn the page and preview our first Saturday slash big Monday pair of games this season for our Coos versus BYU and TCU at home. A dynamic that is unique to the Big 12 and it's a bit of a grind on teams, especially for the demanding style of play coach Samson deploys.
Keys to Winning the Big 12
00:01:06
Speaker
And finally, as conference games have just opened in the Big 12, the three old men debate what it is going to actually take to win the Big 12 this year. We had some forecasts of three to five losses tops for our Cougs to repeat as Big 12 champs. After watching all the full non-con slate in the opening conference games this week, we revisit our forecasts and debate how we think things will unfold this season.
00:01:33
Speaker
So let's get into it is looking at our one game this week.
Coach's Perspective on Oklahoma State
00:01:37
Speaker
Let's begin with brief post game analysis of the 60 to 47 dismantling of the OSU Cowboys on the road. Let's start with you, Tom. What were some of your thoughts from a coach's perspective? Well, as Kelvin is want to say, he has a saying that some people will find a bunion on Miss America. Our defense against Oklahoma State was Miss America.
00:02:00
Speaker
And some people will think, well, yeah, but what about the offense? You know, and that there there's your bunion right there. 28 18 at halftime, kind of an uneven start on offense. That definitely was a game plan was immediately to go inside. Joanne left a couple of jump hooks short, but later on he corrected that and.
00:02:22
Speaker
I think he had a career high that game. But just another excellent defensive effort. Oklahoma State wanted to push the ball. you know They have one of the faster paces in the nation. We have one of the the slowest, I believe our pace of play is 361 out of 364 teams. So we got them playing our pace. Just excellent defense. LJ on the ball, not allowing the their little quick guards to penetrate.
00:02:50
Speaker
We did lose Emmanuel, I think, with the foot, so Malik got some time. Francis, offensively, he looked like he was playing with a couple of ping pong paddles for hands. Yeah. I know Kelvin mentioned something about him resembling Gumby.
00:03:07
Speaker
on his press conference, I kind of liken him to Inspector Gadget. I don't know if anybody, you know, you'd be old like us to remember Inspector Gadget, where he would press a button and these gadgets would come out of his body. but When JBA makes a post, that's what it reminds me of. But he's still rusty offensively, but, you know, he comes in there and did a good job defensively. We did a really good job on the defensive boards, probably needed more offensive rebounds.
00:03:36
Speaker
Calvin mentioned that in the press conference, too. He said Oklahoma State was doing a great job of ah blocking out. But overall, just we'll get into this later about what we think you know the records will be to win the Big 12. But that was the first road win out of the way. So you know great job by the Cougs in getting this win, 60 to 47.
00:03:59
Speaker
You know, it won't go in the Naismith Hall of Fame, the tape won't, but, you know, a 60 to 47 win on the road. That's just as good as 80 to 67 or whatever. Another comment he made was, there's a lot of coaches that are pretty offensive coaches that are out of a job. Yeah. Comes down to defense and and rebounding and take care of the ball and knowing your role on ah offense. And, you know, that's the Houston culture. that's That's what we do.
00:04:27
Speaker
Great insights. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective on the OSU game?
Player's Analysis: Improvements and Performances
00:04:31
Speaker
Well, first of all, Tom, you must be, and and Steve, since you kind of agreed, you two must be really old, a hell of a lot older than me because because I don't remember Inspector Gadget. It's a classic, man. ah I know the name. I just don't recall ever seeing it. So, iah yeah, I guess i'm I'm just the young one of the group. Anyway,
00:04:56
Speaker
you No matter the opponent, it's not easy to win on the road in the Big 12. So there's no need to to completely overthink this. It was a good win. and you know While Oklahoma State may not be a post-season threat, they're an entirely different team than they were last year. they they actually emphasized defense ah and they played pretty well and they prioritized rebounding that's something Lutz does so that could bode well for them long-term. Yeah, they shot an abysmal 26% from the field. ah They also missed quite a few easy shots. This game could have been a little tighter. They missed a lot of layups. Of course, we did as well. yeah So actually our shooting percentage well it wasn't great, around 42%.
00:05:45
Speaker
both could have been better. But this will be a better team. But we you know we went into Stillwater and and got the win. And I think as the season progresses and Oklahoma State improves, I think ah There may be a couple of big 12 teams that go in expecting to win and and come out with a loss. You know, we'll see how things play out for Lutz and for the Cowboys. You know, great game from Roberts and U of H's strategy was was to go inside and Roberts delivered, played a good game, Cryer shot well.
00:06:23
Speaker
And he delivered when Oklahoma State began to try to collapse inside. But the guy I really liked in this game was Dusan. You could see him getting more aggressive, playing more comfortably since Las Vegas.
00:06:38
Speaker
and just producing. He was 50% from the field, six boards, four assists, two steals. I thought I was just kind of more impressed with him than anyone. And, you know, a few weeks ago, Steve, you and I sort of debated the loss of shed. And and I think you sort of mistakenly thought I was suggesting that Yuuzhan had to replace shed ah when basically what I was saying that was that everyone needed to step up to make up for the loss of Shedd defensively, taking over when the team needed it, especially down the stretch, team leadership. And yeah again, I will stress, Yuuzhan cannot replace Shedd. But the way he's been playing recently suggests that he can absolutely lead this team well enough to get us to the promised land. And I think as he continues to
00:07:33
Speaker
kind of matriculate through the system and and get more comfortable with everyone, get more comfortable with Calvin, more practice time, more playing time. I just think he's going to get even better. Yeah, it's funny. Lastly, I heard Calvin in that same press conference, Tom, saying that Tuggler Sharp and Arsenault didn't, didn't show up.
00:07:56
Speaker
to quote him directly. And and ah you know I wouldn't expect to hear that again. I mean, you know three players that he said didn't show up. That's just not going to be the norm. and And it's probably not going to happen, period. So I'd look for all three to step up in these next two games against BYU and TCU and going forward.
00:08:18
Speaker
Yeah. Watch out BYU. Yep. Another thing I thought we did a great job of playing defense without fouling, all except for Tuggler. Jojo had what, four or five? Yeah, he fouled out five. Yep. We didn't just ah accumulate all those stupid fouls, you know, reaching, hacking and and all that.
00:08:39
Speaker
Yeah, I completely agree. I mean, from an analytics perspective, looking at the Okie State game, it was a textbook Kelvin Sampson game plan where the Cougars completely controlled key aspects of the game. We slowed down the pace to a crawl, just like you guys had both mentioned, shut them down on the defensive end, while Roberts came alive and grinding out buckets down low on the offensive end. And we need him to do that this season.
00:09:04
Speaker
On offense, we kind of reverted back to our four shooting ways, 47.4% effective field goal percentage and only 30% from three. But fortunately, Juwan Roberts came back alive after missing most of the last two games and took control down low. But for the rest of the team, it was a mixed bag on O with Uzan and Cryer playing great to support Roberts. But as you had mentioned, Bill, Sharp, Arsenault, and JoJo having subpar games.
00:09:30
Speaker
On D, it was a team effort in challenging every shot and just suffocating the Cowboys, limiting OSU to a staggeringly low 29.6 effective vehicle goal percentage, 21% from three, and 28.6% with five blocks from two-point range. And folks, just to give you a sense of how dominating that was, this was a Big 12 team on the road where we bettered our defensive stats from both the Toledo and Texas A&M Corpus Christi games.
00:10:00
Speaker
Just incredible stuff. So a resounding win to kick off conference season, but no time to waste as we immediately hit our very first Saturday Big Monday set of games in week two in the Big 12.
BYU Game Strategy and Predictions
00:10:12
Speaker
So let's start with our Saturday game at home versus BYU, and then we can go to the TCU game. And once you guys cover off both, Bill, once you kick things off from a player's perspective, starting off with BYU and then TCU.
00:10:25
Speaker
Yeah, BYU's 10 and 2, they won their first conference game. All three of us, I think, when we did our predictions, had them ninth. And I don't see that changing much. I mean, it's possible they could end up eighth, seventh, and ah and they'll be one of the teams battling for an NCAA berth. But so far, so good. Kevin Young, we we talked about him during the conference previews. First year, he came from the Phoenix Suns. He's recruited well so far, very well, as we get into next year with their $7 million dollar man.
00:11:04
Speaker
But you know we'll see how that translates on the court. Their best wins so far, and not great. They beat NC State, and that's that's about their best kind of that's about their best win. Their first conference win, they blew out ASU by 20.
00:11:23
Speaker
surprise there. Their worst loss, they got blitzed by 19 at Providence. I know, that was sad. biggie Big East, Big 12 challenge. I mean, they're still sitting at 35 in Ken Palm, so not bad. You know, for anyone who saw BYU last year, it's it's it's no surprise to hit hear that they're still a very strong offensive team. They score 85 a game.
00:11:47
Speaker
They shoot 30, about 33 still per game. I think about 320 or so and in their 12 games, but it's about 30 a game.
00:11:58
Speaker
And ah they'll obviously be a bit of a test is they've got five double digit scores and two of their starters are not any of those five. So they can score. They do turn the ball over a lot. They don't force a lot of turnovers just like they were last year, which is not surprising. And. ah They shoot a lot of threes this year. They're hitting about 36% of them. So they're not as deadly a shooting team as they were last year, but but they've got some shooters. And I'll mention a few people really quickly. Richie Saunders is leading them in scoring at 14 a game, 6'5 swing man. He's 50% from the field, 43% from three. He's one of the deadly shooters. Treven Nell, 6'5 shooting guard, he's the other
00:12:47
Speaker
great shooter, 44% from threes at 10 points a game. Igor Demin is the 6'8 guard freshman who's projected to be a lottery pick in the NBA. He averages a dozen points, four and a half boards, six assists,
00:13:04
Speaker
He turns the ball over three times a game, so he's kind of a turnover machine. The other freshman is Kenan Catchings, and we talked about him during the conference preview. ah Tamika Catchings from the WNBA, I think it's her son, and Harvey Catchings' nephew, who who played for the Bucks, played in the NBA, and he's the 6'9 forward. It gives them a little more a little more height and a little more athleticism.
00:13:30
Speaker
and You know, really other than that, Dallin Hall, their starting point guard, he's not in double figures, but but a lot of assists. And Traori, the 6'6 center who hurt us last year, and he's at 10 points and six and a half rebounds. So that that's about it for them. Like I said, they've got seven guys that can score five and double figures. Their D is better this year with a little more athleticism.
00:14:01
Speaker
But you know they've really only played one really good team. So I anticipate their defensive rankings changing. It looks like they struggled, especially that Providence game. It's a kind of a tough team that plays good defense and rebounds. Well, sound familiar? ah Exactly what they're going to encounter with us. We're playing at home. And I think this may come into when we discuss where we predicted U of H to play out. we're We're playing them at home where we're just, nobody can beat us. We're going to win this game. And I've heard a lot of people say that this could very easily be our first loss. We're going to win this game comfortably. I'd say 85-64. I don't see it being an overwhelming challenge. Okay. How about TCU?
TCU Game Analysis and Predictions
00:14:53
Speaker
TCU, this will be very quick. They're 7-12, 0-1 in the Big 12. We all kind of expected them to not be particularly good this year and they have not disappointed. They did beat Xavier at home in the biggie Big East, Big 12 Big East Challenge. So they they did help the conference there. nice But they just lost their Big 12 opener at Arizona in 1981.
00:15:23
Speaker
Quite honestly, staying that close to Arizona, I think is more of an indictment on Arizona. But we'll get into that a little later, I think. There's 72 in Ken Palm, which actually is surprising to me. I didn't think they would be that high. yeah Despite the 81 points at Arizona,
00:15:40
Speaker
TCU is pretty weak offensively. They're solid defensively, but but they're not a good offensive team. They don't shoot the ball well at all, and and they turn the ball over a lot. And I'll just mention three players to watch really quickly. Frank E. Collins, 6'2 senior guard, leads them at 11 points a game, four and a half rebounds, four and a half assists.
00:16:07
Speaker
2.3 turnovers, and he's 42% from the field, 26% from three. Noah Reynolds, other starting guard, 10.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4 assists, again, 42% from the field, 31% from three, and and then just the one interior kind of presence. Ernest Yuda, the Kansas transfer from a couple years ago. That's right.
00:16:35
Speaker
6-11, 260. I mean, he's averaging nine points, eight and a half boards. Everything he does is inside. He hasn't shot a three. He shoots 65% from the field, but it's basically dunks and layups. And other than that, there's really no one from TCU to watch. that They have no chance in this game. They just do not have the players this year. They they lost too much. They're too offensively limited and Really, there's not much else to say at the first Tita center. I have us winning 81 47. Wow. 34 point. Wow. Huge win. Yeah. Okay. How about you, Tom, from a coach's perspective on both games? BYU is, uh, Bill mentioned the coach by Kevin Young, NBA background, uh, that thinks TV said Phoenix sons. Well, you know what they say about the NBA, right? What they don't play any defense. no d yeah All right. So.
00:17:32
Speaker
You know, they'll be good offensively. But, you know, college basketball is a totally different game than the NBA. You have different rules as far as defense goes. You know, that they got that stupid three-second defensive rule in the NBA. So, it's a totally different game. So, there's not going to be any quote-unquote schematic advantage from an NBA coach coming down to college. Now, recruiting-wise, yeah, because, you know, he can lure kids in and say, look i got ah and NBA background, you know, I know what it takes to get to the league, but you know, Kelvin Sampson could say the same thing, you know, five or six years coach NBA. So, you know, BYU will be good offensively, but I expect us to pretty much get the shots we want. And then it's just a matter of ah knocking them down. And on the other end, we're going to lock people down.
00:18:21
Speaker
ah Bill mentioned a lot of the players, so they have several players coming back that were instrumental in their team last year. And then they have the six foot nine Russian kid, Yegor, Demon. But you know what? He hasn't seen good American defense. I think he played for Real Madrid overseas, but he's going to see a different type of and intensity when he comes in place in Fertitta. So I look for a big, big cougar win on, on Saturday.
00:18:51
Speaker
Regarding TCU, all the stuff that Bill said, ditto. Nice. I like the way you think, Tom. Love it. I always said, everyone underestimates your intellect. ha Yeah, it's interesting from an analytics perspective, BYU has been what I would consider a lesser version of themselves from last season coming
Analytics on BYU and TCU & Podcast Tech Issues
00:19:18
Speaker
in. And as you had mentioned, Bill at number 35 and Ken Palm, so you can get this year's stats. Well,
00:19:25
Speaker
I think we we had some technical difficulties here where we all got dropped from all, but that's that's okay. We'll continue on. I think it broke out at some point when I was going over the TCU game, and since there wasn't much to cover on that one, I don't think there's much that we need to recover on this front. so At this point, let's get to our topic of discussion for
Houston's Potential Conference Record
00:19:48
Speaker
today. In our preseason Big 12 preview episode, we all predicted that our Houston Cougars would repeat as Big 12 champs. And correct me if I'm wrong, guys, but I believe Tom and I predicted it would take a 15 and five conference record for our Cougs to win the conference. While Bill, I think you had predicted 17 and three.
00:20:05
Speaker
to to win out. And then Jamie, who joined us for that episode, had predicted a 14-6 conference record. After we've all had the chance to watch all the teams in pre-conference, we're going to give the three old guys a chance to potentially revise their forecast on the the conference winning record in the Big 12 season this year. And we're going to have a bit of a discussion slash debate in terms of what we think it's going to take to win the Big 12. So Tom, why don't you kick things off from a coach's perspective? What's your take on the record that's going to be required to win the Big 12 this season? And if you want to change your original prediction, you're free to do so. I'm going to stick with my preseason prediction of us going 15 and five and went into conference outright. I had us going 9 and 1 at home, possible loss, maybe Iowa State, possibly Baylor, and then going
00:21:00
Speaker
six and four on the road, some possible losses, maybe Arizona, Baylor, West Virginia. So I'll hold to that 15 and five record. I always say this, I hope I'm wrong. Bill, I hope you're right. But I'll i'll go with 15 and five. Okay, 15 and five. And you you still believe that's enough to when the big twelve this year uh... i do yep cuz i think they'll be some cannibalization between uh... the teams below us uh... especially once you get past uh... u of h in and and i was state okay cool how about you bill what's what's your take just to be clear uh... i didn't think it was going to take seventeen and three to
00:21:42
Speaker
win the conference. I just think that's where we we're going to finish up. Yeah, that's fine as well. I'm not so sure that we only win the conference by one game. I think it could be more and I've still got us with three losses, but I'm teetering on two.
00:22:00
Speaker
Okay. i Walk us through it. I'll whip through the games right now. BYU win. TCU win. Kansas state on the road win. West Virginia at home win. UCF on the road win. Utah at home win. Kansas on the road loss. And I think we lose that game. Kansas just lost at home to West Virginia. I think Kansas is going to be a little more fired up for us.
00:22:25
Speaker
no after said beat the living hell out of but Dickinson last year, I think they're going to be probably a little fired up at home. So I think that's the loss. Yeah. West Virginia on the road. Some people may think loss. That's an absolute win. They're 46 and Ken Palm. They've had some good wins so far, some really good wins. I mean, they beat Zaga, they beat Kansas. Yeah.
00:22:52
Speaker
But the best players been Javon small the transfer from Oklahoma State is averaging not over 19 a game. Good player to freeze from Drake is a good coach his son's a good player. On the road, we win tech at home when Oklahoma State at home when Colorado on the road when Baylor at home, and I like Baylor, I like the preseason win. Arizona on the road, predicting it right now and the way that they're playing right now, absolute win. They've got a new team for the most part, four new starters. I think they've got to get better with the talent that they have. They've got to get better as as the season progresses, but there were going to be a dozen games into the conference when we play them.
00:23:40
Speaker
they could be better but Arizona's tendency over the course of time has been that they lose to teams that are disciplined and don't turn the ball over that play defense that rebound and just play smart and guess what we are exactly that so even though we're on the road you know It's going to be some similar to UCLA who just went into Arizona and recently beat them. yeah We're going to beat Arizona there. ASU on the road win. Iowa State at home win. Fertitta Magic is is going to happen there.
00:24:19
Speaker
ah Cincinnati at home win, Kansas at home win, and that leads me to the last two. Between Iowa State and Cincinnati, we get tech on the road. That one I had is third loss, and I think that still could be the third loss.
00:24:36
Speaker
They're really a three-man team. Topp and McMillan and Williams are all great scorers, and I think it's going to take probably all three of them, at least two of the three, to have just otherworldly games against us, shoot unbelievably from beyond the arc. In the last game of the season, at Baylor, I think is the second loss for sure. The only reason I'm i'm a little kind of on the seesaw about tech is Do I see us as we continue to get better as uzon continues to get better as we all the whole team? plays better Do I see e of h losing two of its final four regular season games, especially with a number one seed Possibly on the line. I just don't and that's why I think it would be two losses rather than three but
00:25:34
Speaker
it may hurt us to lose to the Final Four regular season games. And that's why I think we will pull it out against Tech and Kelvin will have the team ready to go and at Baylor, at Kansas. So those are really the the two games I see us losing.
00:25:49
Speaker
Really? I mean, so tech though, I mean, just to do a sanity check here, right, for that third potential loss. And I agree with you that, sorry folks, a little bit more technical difficulties here, but let's continue. Bill, it's interesting. So just highlighting the tech game that you referenced as a potential loss,
00:26:08
Speaker
I mean, do you realize that's the big Monday matchup right after our ISU game on Saturday, right? So it's like two days away and then it's traveling to tech for that game, right? Yes. I think that's a tough ask for any team, right? Especially given how we play and it it would have been a super draining ISU game ahead of that as well with hard nose defense on both sides. I just don't know how.
00:26:35
Speaker
how any team can turn around in two days and play again. going back to when we originally previewed the conference, and I know one of the things you stressed was our depth. I think that's where, you know, Yuuzhan just played 36 minutes the other night against Oklahoma State. I think, you know, that's a game where you're going to see more of Wilson. You'll you'll see more of our snow. Ramon is hurt right now, but he'll be back. ah I think this is where our
00:27:09
Speaker
depth that you've certainly referenced is going to be a benefit to us. And I think that this is a game where if we lose three, tech is the third one. But I like our depth and i and I think we can prevail. I mean, I think it's going to be that kind of effort that's going to be required to win the conference.
00:27:30
Speaker
So as we kind of covered last week's conference versus conference debate, the Big 12 does not appear to be as strong as seasons past. In fact, kind of a crappy outlook for the bottom half of the conference so far. The biggest challengers, at least, according to Ken Palm, appear to be Iowa State, who is elite.
00:27:49
Speaker
from an analytics view, with KU and Baylor close behind. And then you've still got challengers like Arizona still playing pretty decently, even though the record doesn't reflect that Cincinnati Tech and a surprising West Virginia team that, you know, those teams could elevate their play on any given night, especially on their home courts. So for me, at least looking at our schedule, there are seven, what I consider tough patches towards winning the big 12, where I don't like what the conference did for us, especially with two Saturday, you know, slash big Monday match ups that have really tough teams lined up. And so, you know, as you highlighted, got at KU at West Virginia, we've got Baylor at home for a big Monday game.
00:28:39
Speaker
right after a Saturday away game at Colorado. We've got Arizona, even though they haven't been doing very well. Another Saturday, big Monday matchup is we just talked about with ISU and then at tech. Another Saturday, big Monday lineup with Cincinnati and KU. Luckily those are both at home. And then we end the season at Baylor. So it's really tough road to winning back to back big 12 championships. And I'll tell you, I am revising.
00:29:07
Speaker
the UH conference record, I'm actually revising it down.
Revised Predictions and Conference Analysis
00:29:11
Speaker
I had like 15, I think 15 and five, right? So I'm going to 16 and four in the big 12. And not because of anything I've seen on our team, but just basically because of the inherent weakness in the conference this year. I don't think you're a national title contender if you lose five games in conference this season. that That's kind of my take. And so when I look at it for the four losses,
00:29:36
Speaker
I ah agree with you at KU. It's been 12 years at Oklahoma with Kelvin Sampson and he never won at Fog Allen. So I view that as a loss. I agree with you at Baylor to end the season. That will be a tough ask. I think Baylor will be peaking at that point in time as well. And quite honestly, I think the conference championship might have been decided at that point as well. So you rest to to get ready for the conference tournament and March Madness. I think Baylor may be playing for a ah both a ah big 12 tournament seed and an NCAA seed. I think it may be more of a priority for them than it will be for us. Yeah, I i agree with you. um I do think that Saturday, big Monday mashup with ISU and then at tech is tough. I just don't think it's reasonable.
00:30:29
Speaker
to to be able to win at Tech. I mean, Tech is still performing pretty well. So I think that's three losses. And then the fourth loss, I think it's going to be a surprise. We always seem to have a surprise during the course of the year. I think our surprise is going to be at West Virginia. So I am changing it to 14-4. And Bill, before you say we're coming back to where you're at with a ah better ranking in conference, here's where I'm going to throw a curveball to you guys and say that I'm in agreement that 17-3 is going to be the record needed to win the Big 12. And I think Iowa State's actually going to end up winning the conference in the regular season. And let me give you the reasons why. You know, we've had a bit more time, so I did
00:31:14
Speaker
a closer review of the conference slates, especially now after watching all the teams in pre-conference play.
Iowa State's Schedule Advantage Discussion
00:31:22
Speaker
And the reality is ISU has a more favorable conference slate compared to us, right? If you look at who, at least who I believe are the key challengers in conference, they play only four of the six key challengers one time this season. So Baylor, Tech, West Virginia, Cincinnati, they only play once where we play all those teams twice.
00:31:46
Speaker
And for ISU, they only play KU in Arizona as far as challengers are concerned twice this season. And quite honestly, Arizona, as we've all talked about, might be pretenders in the end.
00:31:59
Speaker
and so If you look even more closely in the actual scheduling of when they played the teams as well, they have a favorable schedule from a timing perspective compared to us as well, where two of their three toughest rare games at Arizona and at KU, they are all back end Saturday, big Monday match ups, minimizing any potential for a surprise loss that can happen in these exhausting Monday back end games. Plus, also not to discount Iowa State, they've been great this season. They're number three in adjusted offensive efficiency and number 18 adjusted defensive efficiency. I predict that they'll lose to, again, KU, at KU, at Arizona, and at Houston on the road for their three losses. And I'm going to add to this prediction in stating that I still believe the Cougs are actually the best team in the Big 12, but we end up coming in second due to schedule imbalance.
00:32:55
Speaker
I also believe we'll actually end up winning the conference tournament, continue on to win the national championship. And this is a team with what I believe is still our best roster makeup under Coach Sampson with a roster that will continue to improve into March with Tuckler and Arsenal getting stronger and Oozan more comfortable even through the tournament.
00:33:17
Speaker
And it will be kind of a deja vu of our 21 team. And just to remind folks, that's the the team that we had Grimes and we made the Final Four. But we actually did not even win the American that year, Wichita State did because of an imbalance in schedules, as well as UConn from two seasons goes, finishing fourth in the Big East while getting kids healthy and peaking for the tournament and ending up winning the national championships.
00:33:44
Speaker
Now, for our team, to me it means continuing to tweak our offense and really focus on winning the war and not the individual battles and working on improving our adjusted offensive efficiency to a point where we get to top 12 levels for the key run. And that means upping our offensive rebound percentage and improving our two-point shooting, especially with Roberts and Arsenal getting more touches and getting them comfortable with that heading into the tournament. Because our D is there.
00:34:14
Speaker
to get to where we want to be in terms of you know national championships. So I'm going to leave it there. What do you think about that prediction? Yeah, I've got a couple of comments.
00:34:25
Speaker
I figured you would. Oh, yeah. Number one, I cannot, under any circumstance, see us losing to to West Virginia on the road. They're they're playing much better. they're They're well coached. But the teams they've beaten, they've beaten Kansas, they've beaten Gonzaga, they beat Arizona. Yeah, those are good teams. Are any of those teams known for their defense?
00:34:53
Speaker
ah ah This year, Gonzaga's defense is actually decent. so ah am This is a team that starts three guards that basically play four guards ah primarily. This is a team that plays right into our strength. This is this simply is not a good matchup for them. they lost a pit. They've lost it home to Louisville. This this is not a good matchup for them. that They've played well, but they've played well against teams that are not U of H. They're they're not similar to to the way U of H plays. This is a bad matchup for West Virginia. theyre They're playing unbelievably well right now, way above what anyone had predicted. it Just matchup wise, it is not a good matchup for West Virginia versus us. We win that game.
00:35:45
Speaker
the state Their one loss is to Auburn, so we've got that in common. They've beaten everyone else, but who is it that they've beaten? Their best win is over a pretty overrated Marquette team. They beat them at home by 11. They haven't played anybody else. that That's an overrated Marquette. Yes, I think Marquette's overrated. You're from Wisconsin too. That's right.
00:36:29
Speaker
I don't think Marquette's is good marque market at at number eight in Ken Palm. And so that's a, that's a nice man. Right. Well, it's a really nice way. And and it was an 11 point win at home. Yeah.
00:36:42
Speaker
But aside from Marquette, OK, let's let I'll even defer to you and and say that Marquette was ah a decent win, a good win. Who else beside that has Iowa State beaten? That's good. And and and of course, we're we're looking at where the teams are right now. ah they just haven't They haven't beaten anyone. And look, the the one thing that that I didn't focus enough on when I thought that Baylor would be better than Iowa State, and i and they still may be, I mean, Iowa State, I underrated how good their backcourt is. They've got an exceptional backcourt.
00:37:25
Speaker
And typically when I predict NCAA tournament, uh, the bracket and everything, I look for the teams that have the, the experience and the very good back courts. Of course, you look at my predictions, look at our predictions from last year, mine were abysmal. So maybe that tells you something, but I think the jury's still out a little bit on Iowa state. I think once they play some better teams, you know, we'll, so we'll see, but I think we're better. Hey, hey Bill, I mean, but go ahead. I still, as I stated, I think we're the best team in the conference, but I will say I was stayed. Boy, they're right there. And if you want to look at just records up to this point, and you ask who have they beat, they've beaten better teams than we've beaten up to this point.
00:38:16
Speaker
I mean, they played Auburn tough. They're one loss, right? They've beaten Dayton, they've beaten Colorado, they've beaten Marquette, they've beaten Iowa, and they've beaten Colorado again, right? So twice. And so if you want to look at Ken Tom rankings for those, they the record is better, right? Because you you reference the record. And then if I look at the the advanced analytics, their offense is way more efficient than ours this year. They're they're ranked third in offensive efficiency and 18th in defense. And so if you want to talk about profiles, as we talked about last week around the typical profile of a national championship contender,
00:38:56
Speaker
It's a top 10 offense and a top 20 defense and they're right there in the mix. And so that's why I've emphasized, you know, for us to even get to that point, we need to improve our offensive efficiency to close to a top 10 level. And we're not there yet. We're like 21st at this point, but I think we've got the players finally this year and the health to get there.
00:39:17
Speaker
and So and I'm not sleeping on Iowa State. i It's not just the schedule. I'm not entirely sleeping on them either. And right now, I would... God, I think it's a coin toss for me between Iowa State and Baylor. Yeah. yeah yeah And you mentioned that the the bottom half reduced our loss total to four, saying that the bottom half of the Big 12 is... Yeah.
00:39:45
Speaker
reasonably mediocre and I could not agree more with that. Well, Colorado is in that bottom half. So you you mentioned two wins so far over Colorado and and my response is big deal. Colorado is not a good team. But we haven't beaten anyone yeah other than I guess Butler is our best win, right?
00:40:06
Speaker
Is that right? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yeah. So, and Butler's far worse than Marquette. Butler's probably around the Colorado, right? Certainly way worse than Dayton, way worse than Marquette. I don't know way worse than Dayton. Dayton's 30th in Cape Town. I was, I was, I'm not i don't I don't know that that the you know you compare them unfavorably to to Iowa. I understand what you're saying but if it comes down to it, I think that
00:40:44
Speaker
And yes, it's going to be, and I considered exactly what you said about the, uh, Iowa state at home and then going, going to tech. And that's tough, but, uh, and that's why I have tech is our potential loss. But, yeah but I mean, they, they lost it home to A and&M. They, they lost it home to central Florida. So it's not like.
00:41:07
Speaker
They're a great team. They they lost their backcourt. They lost Isaacs. They lost Toussaint. Like I mentioned, they're a three-man team.
Texas Tech Game Challenges
00:41:15
Speaker
It's top in McMillan and Williams. and if And if those three are on, then then it could be a long night for anyone ah and they could beat us. it It wouldn't be a long night, but they they could beat us. But I think that The way their teams comprised, they're going to have to have two of those three again, top and McMillan Williams, two of those three are going to have to have just phenomenal games for them to beat us. Tech could be our third loss. I'm not so sure it will be. Yeah, we'll see. Tom, you live in Iowa. What's your take on Iowa state and kind of what I, what I mentioned, you know, just.
00:41:58
Speaker
I'm not an analytics guy like you are Steve, but I kind of just go by I test. Yeah, absolutely. I kind of, I don't see, I don't think there is good defensively this year. Yeah, they're not the the stats also also show. offensive I think offensively. Yeah. They, you know, they've made some improvements. You know, you got Josh Jefferson coming over from where was it? St. Mary's. Yep. St. Mary's. ah You know, so he's more of a threat than, than they had with King last year.
00:42:25
Speaker
and the other big guy, the guy who could shoot free throws except against us. I can't remember his name. Anyway, but yeah, just, you know, when when I watch them, there's a little bit something missing with them. I think maybe a little bit of toughness and grit, but like you said, I think offensively, they're a little bit better, but you know, but we'll we'll see. We got 19 more games in conference and and and we'll see how it plays out. How many times do they play Cincinnati? Once.
00:42:54
Speaker
Okay, so do we. Yeah. and No, we play. Oh, I thought we played Cincinnati twice. Do we not? No, we just play. We just play. on this joke Yeah, here. And where do they play Cincinnati? ah Let's see. I had jotted that down. Cincinnati's at home. So Baylor at home, tech away, West Virginia away, Cincinnati at home for Iowa State. Okay.
00:43:21
Speaker
But yeah, I guess, so you know, in the end, we have to play through the games and it'd be curious to see what what fans think as well.
Episode Conclusion and Engagement Reminder
00:43:28
Speaker
So that's how we play the games. So that's it for our 37th episode of the No Conference for Old Man podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, we'd really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice.
00:43:41
Speaker
We are also available via the Republic of Football podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as the only basketball-centered podcast. We're at the go-kooks.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way. We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account, no conference for a win. Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout next week to download and listen as our next episode drops. Take care, everyone.