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Season Defining Win for UH Over Kansas in 2 OT at the Phog!
78 Plays3 months ago
Welcome to Episode #41 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
Our Houston Cougars are now 17-3 & 9-0 in the XII, after beating Kansas at the Phog in what many college hoops pundits have called "the best game of the season" regardless of what any future game brings us. Oh and Houston also turned around with a workman-like effort in beating a pesky WVU team 4 days later as well. Houston will continue to be tested this week with a visit from #22 Texas Tech on Sat & Oklahoma State Tue. 2 of the 3 Old Men review the 2 games played & preview the upcoming games this week, with special attention paid to the epic win in Lawrence.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on gocoogs.com/old-men/
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction & Host Lineup
00:00:06
Speaker
Welcome folks to episode number 41 of the No Conference for Open podcast. The podcast where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well and proud members of the Goku's.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
00:00:23
Speaker
We're here today with two of the three old men, Bill Walker, a former player, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy for this episode. But hopefully Coach Lydiak will be back with us for next week's episode. Well, a
Houston vs. Kansas: A Culture-Defining Win
00:00:34
Speaker
season defining week over these past two games as the Cougars pulled out a culture defining two over time, 92 to 86 win at the fog versus Kansas.
00:00:43
Speaker
that will go down as the best game of this college season, as well as likely the best regular season win of the Sampson era for Houston. And we'll talk a little bit about that as well.
00:00:54
Speaker
And then the team turned around for a calm and surgical 63 to 49 win at West Virginia that could have been ripe for a let dad with a lesser program. Now the team moves on to the third game and what we highlighted could be our toughest stretch with a home game versus number 22 Texas Tech this coming Saturday and finish it off with an Oklahoma State game at home on Tuesday.
Game Analysis: Kansas Matchup
00:01:18
Speaker
With a huge win at Kansas, we're going to spend basically half the show discussing the details of the incredible win at the fog, then do a quick review of West Virginia and finally preview the two games this week. No special topic needed this week, guys. So let's get into it. In looking at our improbable win at Kansas this week, let's begin with postgame analysis of the tense back and forth two overtime win in Lawrence. And Bill, why don't you go ahead and give us some of your thoughts from a player's perspective.
00:01:49
Speaker
Okay. Well, Hey, I want to start out by saying, I hope to God that the lisp has gone for good. And especially after blaming you and and the editing, Steve, ah i ah but we I've made a couple changes on this end. So hopefully we're good. at And secondly, I want to tell Tom that, that we miss him here tonight because I've got to imagine knowing how much he absolutely abhors Kansas. If there was any episode that he wanted to be here for and to add to just just communicate his his at the win. Tonight would be the night. Yeah. So so absolutely. Sorry, Tom. he Tom's got a basketball game tonight that ah it looked like he wasn't going to be able to yeah work things out, which is too bad.
00:02:47
Speaker
Yeah, but he'll get another chance when we beat them at home to, you know, towards the end of the season. So true. True to true. turn off I'll verify no list today with your new equipment, having your voice come again loud and clear. Nice. And the other thing about Tom is he was the only one who picked us to win. I know. Crazy. so I would have congratulated him, but and not to be.
00:03:17
Speaker
but Yeah, 92-86 double overtime. ah The first half we were down 38-31. And it wasn't, in some regards, it wasn't unlike the first half versus UCF when we were down 38-30. I thought we were a little too keyed up and really poor first half shooting, I think seemed to have bared that out.
00:03:42
Speaker
ah Yeah, at halftime of the the UCF game, Sharpen Cryer had a pretty miserable first half. And I mentioned that last week. Well, Sharpen Cryer in this game and.
00:03:59
Speaker
It will give will give sharp a bit of a pass because he is playing hurt right now But they were o of eight from the field oh of six from three while Kansas's Starting guards more and Harris shot six of nine from the field and three of four from three ah Roberts in the first half was also two of seven from the from the floor and I just I think we were a little keyed up and you know, a lot of the shots were looked like they were long and You know, the adrenaline was obviously pumping, playing, playing at Kansas and the fog. And so I'm assuming that a lot of it had to do with that. Yeah. I think we were, we were also a little slow to the ball in the first half and a little slow to fight over picks. You know, Tuggler, Tuggler was, was quick to double. If the opportunity was there, he jumped out. And I think that.
00:04:58
Speaker
that it provided Dickinson with some easy looks because there wasn't any rotation to pick him up when when Tuggler left him and and and Tuggler wasn't able to get back on Dickinson as quickly and it left him with some open looks and Dickinson ended up having a really positive first half. Yeah. Yeah, I was I was worried at the half Well, I take it back. I was not worried at halftime when we were down 3830 at UCF. And I ah mentioned it to you guys. I mentioned it to several people. I ah just thought that as poorly as we shot, we were going to come back and and we were just fine.
00:05:39
Speaker
Admittedly, I was not as confident down 38-31 at Kansas. we We did not look good in the first half. And quite honestly, had Malik Wilson not done his Superman impression, this could have been a really ugly first half. He he was just exceptional in the first half. Yeah, agreed.
00:06:00
Speaker
Second half, we went on a ah really an outstanding early run. Uh, we, we ended up taking the lead and and not to not too long a period of time. This was absolutely keyed by our D we, we, yeah we, we had people when, when Tuggler left Dickinson to double, we had people on the weak side coming to help out almost completely shut down.
00:06:26
Speaker
I mean, Dickinson still got the ball to, to Badunga and, and, uh, and moved the ball and Dickinson's a good passer. We'll give him absolutely credit for that. But, but in terms of the scoring, it's certainly his scoring diminished in the, in the second half. And I thought that was because we, we rotated a lot better and that made a big difference. Yeah.
00:06:52
Speaker
when we had the ball roberts came to life and became almost unguardable yeah and we were I mean, we went from down seven at halftime. We went up, we were up eight. What really did not benefit us was one of 10 streak at the free throw line. And I was getting a lot of texts about that from, from numerous people. And it was just ugly. Even, even Cryer, you know, When we had the ball, 90% Roberts came to shooter went to life and the became almost unguardable. line and.
00:07:22
Speaker
missed both shots. So, you know, in in my opinion, and I mentioned this to to a couple of people, I thought that we were way, way too into our heads. We were overthinking things. Even Roberts, definitely early on, I think was was overthinking at the free throw line. He was thinking about his his shots too much rather than just playing, letting the shots go.
00:07:46
Speaker
And you know we ended up shooting poorly ah and certainly had that bad stretch at the free throw line. yeah Fortunately, as we started to come down the stretch, Kansas had their own free throw struggles late and in overtime. And yeah know quite honestly, we we pulled off a miracle. you According to Ken Palm, we were the biggest underdog in the past 15 years involving a top 20 pair of teams.
00:08:19
Speaker
at at point, we were at 0.4% to win the game. 99.6% chance that we were gonna lose. And then, you know, sharp came up huge. Robert Roberts continued to dominate inside and he hit free throws enabled us to to get into overtime. You know, use on barely missed a triple double 17, nine and nine. Oh, and zero turnovers for the entire game. And he played 41 minutes. That's that that's unbelievable. And and despite how well
00:08:58
Speaker
All those players played my MVP still was he he just he hit the huge three to send it into double overtime he was so good and Kept the game from getting really ugly in the first half. I mean he came in and just just took over and Yeah, what it did was it provided Kelvin with his first ever win at Fog Allen, first ever win at Kansas. this This goes back to when he was at Oklahoma, when he was with us. And as far as I'm concerned, it couldn't have come at a better time and I could not be happier for him.
00:09:34
Speaker
Yeah, it's just great win. Yeah, great win. yeah It was interesting from an analytics perspective, looking at the KU game, very little separating the two teams as you'd expect in the 92 to 86 double overtime win. So from an analytics perspective for this game, we're going to have to dig a little deeper to get some answers.
00:09:56
Speaker
On offense, both teams actually came in well prepared and shot the ball well, both right around their norms, which is impressive given both of these teams are top five defenses in the country. KU actually shot slightly less efficiently from two point range, even with what seemed like 20 dunks by freshman Bedunka during the course of the game, while shooting a little bit better than normal from three point range with Rylan Griffin bombing away from the arc.
00:10:23
Speaker
Exact opposite happened to us where we shot a bit worse from three, given Pryor's challenges this game, while shooting better than normal from two point range with, again, Roberts just going crazy and having his way down low. And that's where on defense, it's really a tip of the hat to both programs for trying to take away each team's favorite approach to scoring. Both teams also did a nice job defensive rebounding, limiting each other team's ability to get second chance points.
00:10:51
Speaker
But here's the two key defensive stats that made the difference, ultimately, in the razor-thin margin in the game. First off, turnover percentage. KU turned the ball over 12 times. That's nearly 15% of their possessions, while UH only turned the ball over five times, which is basically 6.4% of our possessions. And then the second stat is block percentage.
00:11:17
Speaker
KU did not get a single block shot versus Houston. And we highlighted in the game preview that this was something that they've actually improved a lot on this season since both Dickinson and the Dunga were in the lineup. While on the flip side, Houston had five block shots this game. Every one of those five shots were by JoJo Tuggler. So huge, huge game for him.
00:11:41
Speaker
You dig in deeper on the player-specific advanced analytics, there were some surprise key contributors from both teams that rose to the occasion. For KU, Dickinson was held largely in check and was a player box score plus-minus plus 6.9 for the game. He was only attributed with two assists, but man,
00:11:59
Speaker
It felt like he was carving us up with a high-low assist to Badunga for those dunks, but their stars for the game were not players the scouting reports would have zeroed in on with, again, Flori Badunga, Freshman being a plus minus plus 12.2 for the game, and Ryland Griffin, formerly of Alabama at plus 17.6 for the game, bombing away from three.
00:12:24
Speaker
For UH, we saw how Roberts exploded and carried the low down low for us. And they had a player box score plus minus plus 7.8 for the game. And he ended up being, I guess, the game MVP based on the TV analyst. But the real story was, as you had highlighted, Oozan, 17 points.
00:12:43
Speaker
ah wow I guess he's one of the the key stories also Wilson, but who's on 17 points, nine rebounds, nine assists, zero turnovers as you had highlighted at a plus minus plus 16 for the game. And the Malik Wilson with a career best plus minus 19.3 scoring an efficient 18 points while playing stellar D on Mayo.
00:13:07
Speaker
as well as Griffin later on in the game. And finally, you'll appreciate this bill. I can only say thank God for AJ store, the Wisconsin transfer who was a player box or plus min is minus 25 for the game. Is that shocking or what? He was miserable. and Awful. He was awful. He he he got to the line a couple of times.
00:13:32
Speaker
He did not make I don't think he didn't make any free throw. I don't think he made anything. I think I mean, he was he he was so bad. and And yeah, I was pleased to see that. It's just shocking because even in our preview last year when he was at Wisconsin, I was a fan of his game. I thought he was a phenomenal player. And I thought he was a huge, huge get for Kansas in the offseason transfer portal. And he is really not contributed much of anything for Kansas this year. So one question I've got for you, Bill, and I've claimed it on Goku.com that this KU win at the fog is the marquee regular season win of the Samson era. Comparable to what I would say our OU win in football was under Tom Herman.
Significance in Houston's History
00:14:21
Speaker
How about from your perspective? What is this KU win in hoops ranked for you as far as regular season wins during the Samson era?
00:14:28
Speaker
Yeah, I think it's a big win. It's definitely a big win. You know, as we've, as we've become a national title contender, you know, there was one, the one year just a few years ago where, where Kansas won it all. ah So, you know, they're always right up there in the, yeah in the big 12, you know, the last couple of years, you know, it's, it's Iowa state that's, that's really,
00:14:57
Speaker
really you know established its presence. and And so I'm not necessarily sure which which would be a bigger win. We don't play at at Iowa State, and I'm happy about that this year. But I guess when you factor in that Kansas' lineage, that you know their history,
00:15:21
Speaker
that they that they've won so many, as many national championships as they've won and and just that they're so nationally recognized. I think this is, yeah, I think this is this is a great win.
00:15:36
Speaker
It's certainly up right up there, if if not near the top in the Sampson era. it ah i I certainly wouldn't compare it to the the game of the century when U of H beat UCLA in the Astrodome. but Yeah. So that was going to be my next question. So even taking it beyond the Sampson era, if you look at UH program history-wise, regular season, how would this one rank for you?
00:16:05
Speaker
Oh boy, you're catching me a little off guard with this one because i'd have to sorry about I'd have to think about some of, some of U of H's regular season wins going, you know, going back to, to five slam a jam and, and, and more so throughout the, the Sampson era. i It's, it's. don't get me wrong. It's a big win. it's it's a It's a huge win. It's a game that we should not have won. yeah And ah the the the end was just absolutely extraordinary. And yeah yeah ESPN called it the their game of the year. absolutely A lot of people have called it the college basketball game of the year. It was just, it was unbelievable. And I've talked to a lot of people that
00:16:50
Speaker
that turned the turned the game off either in regulation when we were down four and they had the ball with with under a minute left or when we were down six and they were going to the free throw line in the first overtime with with the... And you know, guilty as charged. I actually did turn it off in the OT when we were down six because I had, but you know, dinner reservations with the wife and guess what? At that point, I didn't even want to watch the ending because it it just thought,
00:17:20
Speaker
Zero chance. That's right. I forgot about that. I'm just not doing a podcast tonight with a fair weather fan. I went back to rewatch it and I've rewatched it three times, so I've made up for it. Oh, but hey, maybe, maybe. maybe Yeah. So one one go kooks.com. Fan and poster referenced our win at FedEx Forum over Memphis with sheds last second jumper on the baseline.
00:17:50
Speaker
ah you know, for the win as a comparable win. And I would absolutely highlight that one and the game at home where Tremont Mark hit a mid court shot to beat Memphis, you know, kind of the two on par during our American conference stint. But for me, Memphis and even FedEx Forum is just not comparable, I guess, to the KU program or the fog as a sacred venue in the sport. And that's why I've kind of highlighted at this Kansas win at the fog as the greatest win of the Samson era. And then if you go back in time, I'd say I'm with you, right? Some old timers on Goku's dot.com, you know, folks that are in our age group.
00:18:32
Speaker
We're also referencing wins in Barnhill Arena during the Guy V. Lewis years, being comparable in terms of caliber of regular season win. But again, for me, Barnhill is just not even in the same stratosphere as the fog. And even if you restrict it to the Eddie Sutton years, though the winning percentage may be somewhat comparable to South's two-decade record at KU in the fog.
00:18:57
Speaker
It's just the historic significance of the venue, plus the longevity of exceptional winning over decades and over coaching regimes that make this KU win number one in my book. I mean, the only regular season win is exactly the one that you mentioned for our Cougs program overall that may have exceeded this one. And that was a UCLA win in the Astrum in the game of the century with Elvin Hayes versus Lou Alcindor, in my opinion.
00:19:25
Speaker
I mean, that UCLA team was 88 and two overall at any venue while Lou Alcindor was there with a great Coach Wooden. So other than that, I could not come up with another regular season when that can compare to this one. So yeah, I'd have to I'd have to the shed the shed game winner at at Memphis was was a great win. Yeah.
00:19:52
Speaker
the I was at the game at Fertitta when Mark not only hit the the half court shot, he and any he banked that shot in at the buzzer to win, but he called it. says Shortly after the ball left his hands, he yelled out, bank. and So I've got to raise that one maybe a little higher than it than it Should get credit for just because he called bank on a half quarter. I love that. Yeah that was crazy winning it at Barnhill and I'd have to go back and look I'd be off the top of my head if if if there were big wins and the other thing that has to be considered is is the fact that
00:20:38
Speaker
This game was over. Kansas won this game twice in in regulation and in overtime. So the way in which we won just just made it even that much better. But I'd have to go back and see who was on the on the floor for Arkansas at the time. I mean, if it was if it was a game where we where we beat the triplets, where we beat, yeah you know, Mod Creek Brewer and Delph.
00:21:02
Speaker
You know, maybe, but Yeah, i'd i I mean, this this is a the way that this game ended, the way that this game went to overtime, the way that that it went to double overtime, and the way that we just took them apart in in double overtime. I mean, it's hard to argue with you. i Like I said, I'd have to i'd have to do a little... ah little research a little, you know, go back and and study a little history, just to see who was on the floor for for each team, especially at Arkansas. ah But yeah, I would probably put this one
00:21:44
Speaker
ahead of the the two Memphis games? Yeah, yeah, I would as well. I mean, mean here's the crazy stat for for folks that like to follow stats. Everyone knows KU is a true, true blue blood, right? And their home record all time across all coaches in the fog is at 87.43% winning percentage. that's but If it's not the highest, it's got to be one of the top three highest home records all time. And then if you narrow it down to Self over the 20 years that he's been there, his win percentage at the FOG
00:22:21
Speaker
is over 94% at home. That's outrageous. And he's kept that even if you want to divide it up into his first or second decade, he's been consistent both decades over 94% win percentage at the fog. And so, yeah, i can't I can't sing the praises any higher for Coach Sampson in this program for that miracle win, quite honestly. So,
00:22:48
Speaker
And that's why we've allocated so much time to talk about that one game. And well I'll say this. Yeah, I was just elated after after the win, you know, entirely ecstatic. yeah for For people who I mean, I never even would have considered comparing this win to to. Certainly the I guess the Memphis games or, you know, start to, you know,
00:23:18
Speaker
I almost get the impression from what you had said, Steve, that they were they were trying not to be too excited and almost downplaying this to to a lesser extent. I don't want to leave that impression. that that oh okay dode It was just ended up being a nice discussion. I had made the comment that I felt like this was our signature win, period, right? The Samson era. and then folks, other their other folks kind of chimed in, reminded of some other big big wins that we've had as well. Just a little bit of back and forth. And then I think that the one that we probably went back and forth the most on was the comparison to the Barnhill Arena. That one actually we had a bit more of a debate on. And I still stick to the fact that, hey,
00:24:06
Speaker
KU just as a program and fog as a venue is just so much more significant than anything Arkansas in any era could ever represent, right? No one would consider them a blue blood, right? yeah No, but but but they were they were awfully good for a lengthy period of time. and and ah And if we went in there and and you know, beat the triplets in ah in an incredibly exciting game, then then i yeah I guess I could see where people are bringing that up. But absolutely but yeah, it just never occurred to me to to to necessarily compare this win to any of the others. I was i was just soaking in the the elation and and you know in the victory. No, it's great that these are the types of debates that we can have where it's about, you know,
00:25:00
Speaker
size of victory or importance of of big victories, right? It's ah better than grousing about a losing program, right, which we've had for, you know, two decades since before Samson had joined us. So ah great yeah yeah, you'd much rather you'd much rather compare and contrast victories over over big teams and and yeah big wins as opposed to speculating on who the next coach is going to be. Yeah, exactly.
Houston vs. West Virginia Review
00:25:33
Speaker
Okay, so why don't we move forward with a quick summary of the West Virginia game and yeah really on the heels of this incredibly draining KU win, Bill. What were your thoughts? Yeah, we won 63-49 at West Virginia. It was
00:25:52
Speaker
it It was really kind of the tail of two halves. An issue when, when coming off a game like Kansas is that the legs may not be entirely there and what what will happen more so than anything is that the shooting suffers. However, for teams like U of H that the consistently played great D, rebound, protect the ball,
00:26:19
Speaker
I think ah yeah i think that that you can negate poor shooting and that that's clearly what happened because the first half against West Virginia, everything we did was we shot the ball well, we defended. we We weren't great with the ball the entire game, but we were better and certainly in the first half and we're up 39 19 at halftime. I mean, 20 point lead and it looked like we were going to, we were going to beat them like, like we beat Utah, like we've beaten a number of teams and obviously it didn't happen, but, uh,
00:26:55
Speaker
You know, we did a great job actually throughout the entire game, but certainly in the first half of limiting Javon Smalls ability to get, get off shots. When, when he moved the ball, we denied him and didn't let him get the ball again and in positions where he could potentially.
00:27:14
Speaker
get the ball on the floor and and get to the hoop or or have open. We played him really well the entire game and just we're all over him the first half, second half. He obviously got injured and that that ah yeah it was too bad, but but he wasn't goingnna he wasn't going to do all that much to hurt us anyway.
00:27:32
Speaker
and the The other thing that was great in the first half is that we only committed four fouls. yeah And that that's not something that always occurs. But once again, I've mentioned a a few times that ah we're just not a good matchup for West Virginia. And the fouls kind of bore that out. On the other hand, we had the second half, which was not so good. The the person that the I mentioned ah
00:28:04
Speaker
positively and prominently in the Kansas game, Yuuzhan, he seemed to play with with little to no aggressiveness in the second half. He was oftentimes, he was he'd bring the ball up and hed and and and and granted he was defended well and and they're a very good defensive team, but he was kind of stuck holding the ball close to half court. Our offense got started slowly,
00:28:33
Speaker
He just looked like he was trying to find someone to get the ball to, and just an absolute utter lack of aggressiveness. You could see calvin Calvin got on him a couple of times, and I'm sure it was because of that. And if you if you watch it closely toward the end of the game, they were getting the ball in Cryer's hands a lot, and he was putting the ball on the floor. He wasn't looking for threes. He was putting it on the floor. He was trying to get to the hoop. he He fed Tuggler one time when they came to double him near the basket. He got it to Tuggler for dunk. He got fouled and he hit his free throws and he bounced back from a really subpar Kansas game and didn't help this out. you know They played very well in the second half. They made that run against us and you know fortunately down the stretch,
00:29:28
Speaker
we started to score a little bit better. Like I said, we were aggressive. Arsenault got the ball. Obviously everyone heard what Kelvin was saying because Arsenault got the ball at one point, went right to the basket ah and scored. And even sharp but during the limited time that he was in there, he he tried to get to the basket. It it just was, ah for some reason, just a lack of of aggressiveness and really being overly passive.
00:29:58
Speaker
By use and and and you know, I kept thinking, okay, he's gonna he's gonna and he and he started to a little bit ah down the stretch and I think that was and in risk in response to to Calvin getting on him and and but it was it was well deserved and ah You know, what what we did well from start to finish was that we dominated the boards. yes We won at 34.19. They only had 19 rebounds for the game. We also defensively, we held them to four of 18 or 22.2% from three. ah So yeah they're not a good shooting team anyway. And and we've we've referenced that when we've previewed. ah
00:30:42
Speaker
But yeah, they they shot really poorly from three, much better from two. yeah know I thought Francis played well. I thought Arsenault hit shots in this game, which was good to see because he's he's dropped off recently. Tuggler had a really strong game. And and of course, Cryer bounced back from from the subpar Kansas game and and played well. On the lesser positive side, Roberts,
00:31:10
Speaker
Roberts didn't play as well as he's he's been playing recently, 5.6 boards, two turnovers. Sharp, you know I'm not, he was ineffective, but but he also didn't play and he he got hurt again. And and that's that's something that we're gonna wanna continue to watch as we go forward.
00:31:29
Speaker
he could be quite important and factor in heavily against tech when we play them and against some of the yeah other teams down the stretch. And then i'll lastly, Yuuzhan, he scored 10 points, but he did not have a single rebound in the game. And he just, he just never really was inside, ah only two assists, two turnovers and four fouls. And I keep reiterating this, but he's got to be more aggressive and and he's got the,
00:31:58
Speaker
the skills, he's got the talent to be able to get the ball to the basket. he It seemed to me to be just mental last night and I'm sure he'll turn that around. That's fine. You know, in the end, 14 point road win and let's move on to tech.
00:32:15
Speaker
Yeah, from an advanced analytics perspective on offense, this was a, I guess what I'll call it taking care of business type wind versus West Virginia. We continued our stellar ball movement, especially in the first half and just had our way inside and out for a 20 point lead at the half. We were a bit disoriented in the second half where West Virginia and I'm going to give them credit.
00:32:39
Speaker
They turned up the pressure big time and gave the effort that wasn't there in the first half. And and it's really the time that we had the vast majority of our 14 turnovers for the game. But we righted the ship and just in time, offensive, rebounded like crazy, and came through with a 13-point win.
00:32:58
Speaker
On defense, we held them to sub 20 points in the first half, which was phenomenal for a conference game, 49 points for the game, and took away what they liked to do, which is shoot a lot of threes, where West Virginia ended up only 22% from three-point range. But I will hand it to Coach DeVries. In the second half, he actually exploited our switching deed to get Hansberry free down low in the second half when the guard whether it was Uzan or Wilson was on him for easy layups. But we stayed the course forcing turnovers on 22% of their possessions and grabbed a ton of defensive rebounds as well to quell their comeback attempt in the second half to win by 14th.
00:33:39
Speaker
And so now the Cougars are now a perfect 9-0 in conference, sole possession of number one in the Big 12 standings with two games on tap this week.
Upcoming Challenges: Texas Tech & Oklahoma State
00:33:48
Speaker
So let's quickly review the games this week, both at home versus a ranked Texas Tech this Saturday and then Colorado on Tuesday. Bill, what's your player's perspective? And you can cover both games.
00:34:01
Speaker
Okay. Tech Saturday, five o'clock at Fertitta ESPN two. Finally. We're not on plus awful yeah ESPN plus. Tech is, as we've kind of been alluding to, they are a very good team. They are much better than I thought they'd be this year. They're 16 and 4. They're 7 and 2 in conference. they And one of those two losses was at home 85, 84 in overtime to Iowa State. So they've played well all year.
00:34:34
Speaker
I believe and Steve, I'll leave this to you, but I ah quite sure they're, they're top 30 in both offense and defense and they're a top top, you know, 12, 15 team there. The players that I will mention, cause they've got, they've got a few that are, that are going to be challenging, starting with number one, JT top and there's six nine sophomore forward.
00:35:02
Speaker
He transferred on the final day of the portal to to tech from New Mexico. He's averaging over 16 points, eight and a half rebounds over a block a game and he's shooting 55% from the field. He has been a huge addition and and he will probably, he will probably, I imagine be played by Robertson and and that that will be a great matchup.
00:35:27
Speaker
ah Chance McMillan, 6-3, senior two guard. He came over a couple of years ago from Grand Canyon College. He's averaging 15 points, four and a half boards. He's also shooting 55% from the field and he's shooting 47, over 47% from three. So he's, he's shooting the ball. Well, he's a deep threat and he actually, he can score everywhere. He's another really good player. Darien Williams.
00:35:56
Speaker
He's, he's one player that's, that's played the whole time at, ah at tech six, six juniors, small forward, another 15 point score, a five and a half rebounds, four and a half assists commits two and a half, two, excuse me, 2.2 turnovers. ah He's not a great outside shooter, but he can put the ball on the floor. ah He can.
00:36:19
Speaker
Penetrate and he draws fouls. The last guy I really want to mention is their point guard who who is controls everything. Elijah Hawkins, he transferred in from Minnesota. He was also a big portal get for for tech 511.
00:36:36
Speaker
He's averaging about nine points, but six over six assists, two steals. He cannot shoot to save his life, but he is ultra quick. He plays defense and he he can get the ball to the right players. And that's what he that's what he plays for.
00:36:52
Speaker
ah I feel like I also have to mention the most intriguing player on Tech's team because he's got two to first names, Frederico Frederico. His game may not be too intriguing, but his name certainly is. Nice.
00:37:11
Speaker
Yeah, they they commit a little over 11 turnovers a game so they can be sloppy. They're a good shooting team. They're shooting 49% and 38% from three. And they have nine players who average 16 or more minutes.
00:37:26
Speaker
ah So, so they, they can go deep, you know, grant grant McCaslin is actually a defensive coach and has been in previous stops. But but what I like about him is he's, he's structured his system to fit a lot of talent.
00:37:43
Speaker
I thought they'd be worse after losing their starting backcourt from last year, Pop Isaacs and Joe Gissant. And you never know what's going to happen. I mean, Kansas has kind of been the the epitome of this, where you bring in new players. They don't necessarily mesh. They don't you know necessarily play well, like like teams that have players that start as freshmen and play their whole but but they've really played well together. Toppin, as I mentioned, will be a great matchup with Roberts. Cryer, I would imagine, will probably play the ultra quick Hawkins. yeah I would think pending injury that Sharp will play against McMillan and Yuzhan maybe will play the 6'6 Williams. Quite honestly, I like all those matchups. They're really good, but I but i i like those.
00:38:35
Speaker
and you know with our bench and i in a game like this where it'll be a little more offensive, I see Arsenault, Wilson, yeah and of course, you know, Tuggler and Francis, but but I think Arsenault and Wilson will will likely play decent minutes and Arsenault may have a chance to do something this game. For Teeta Magic again, I have us winning 79-64.
00:39:05
Speaker
79, 64. 15 points. 15 point win. Yeah, nice. So from an analytics perspective, tech this year is quickly rounding into form under Coach McCaslin. Their number 12, as you had highlighted, now in Ken Palm at 16 and 4 with a nice recent win over Arizona at home.
00:39:24
Speaker
Tech is number 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency and number 29 in adjusted defensive efficiency. And they're actually trending upwards on D, just like we expected from a team under McCaslin, where we're now a season high number eight in adjusted offensive efficiency, if you can believe that. And again, we're back to number one in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. So two balanced heavyweights in the big 12 standings battling it out this Saturday.
00:39:54
Speaker
Tech is a great shooting team. They're ranking 11th in effective field goal percentage at 56.8%. And here's the challenge. they are excellent, basically meeting our excellent threshold being top 40 in three point shooting, two point shooting, as well as at the free third line. They're also number 23 in offensive rebound percentage by Ken Palm. However, the one slight chink in their armor is that they can turn the ball over a bit at times. Now ranking 81st in Ken Palm, which is still in our good threshold. It's not really bad, but that's the only thing that you can pick on.
00:40:31
Speaker
On D, this tech team is not exceptional or even excellent in any particular area. Coming closest probably in two-point field goal percentage D at number 43 and 10-pom, but they do everything well. So no glaring weakness to exploit either. So it's going to be a test on offense to see if we can exploit any particular match-ups. And I think as you had highlighted earlier, Bill,
00:40:59
Speaker
I mean, you went through all the match-ups and I think we're in agreement. We like the match-ups. So I think i think we're gonna be testing each one to see where we can score some points there.
00:41:12
Speaker
Now, the question for UH is going to be, are we going to bite the bullet now and rest sharp, or maybe wait until after this game before resting him for a week prior to the Baylor game? I think maybe we have him start on the bench this game and figure out if we need him versus Tech. At home, I think we should have the horses to win this game even without him. Based on the metrics, this is projected to be a 10-point win at home for the Cougs based on Ken Palm. Honestly, we've been really rolling at home this season with all the depth that we've got. So even if we don't play sharp, I'm projecting this to be a 68 to 55, 13 point win at home. then Yeah. So, so how about Oklahoma State for you? State, we play Tuesday at seven o'clock.
00:42:04
Speaker
and we're back to our favorite network, yeah ESPN+. plus ha i'm not I'm not as unhappy with that because I'll be at the game. yeah So we got I got that going for me. This is the second matchup. We won the first game, 60-47, to open up the Big 12 season. ah We played them right after Christmas. we In that game, we held them to 26% from the field.
00:42:32
Speaker
They are currently 10-10. They're 2-7 in conference. ah Last night, they played a pretty mediocre Kansas State team, who they actually previously beat, and they got annihilated by 28. And the game, Kansas State got out to a 10-0 lead, in and I think the closest that to Oklahoma State got was right after that at eight points and it was never closer than eight the rest of the way. Oklahoma State is not a good team. that They have nobody that averages over 12 points a game. they They just really don't have anybody that consistently put the ball in the hole. So I'm not even going to mention any of their players because none of them are are especially threatening.
00:43:26
Speaker
i don't know what I don't know the extent of Sharp's injury, but I've got to imagine that he's probably going to sit this game because that this is going to be absolutely no challenge. if If U of H is even remotely focused, this is the game where the the over-under on Oklahoma State points should be right around 40.
00:43:47
Speaker
This is a game where if needed, like I said, we can easily rest sharp. This will be similar to the Utah game where the bench was, was entirely cleared with, with about eight minutes left. This, this is going to be ugly. Uh, I have eight U of H winning 80 to 42. Nice. Yeah.
00:44:09
Speaker
I mean, like you said, we played them earlier on the road and beat them by 13 and they've become even worse. They're now coming in at number 124th in Ken Palm. That is the worst team in the conference from an advanced analytics perspective.
00:44:24
Speaker
They're number 190 in adjusted offensive efficiency and number 97 in adjusted defensive efficiency. And so they're basically worse across the board versus when we played them about a month ago. I'm not going to go into any of the detailed advanced analytics either. OSU is just an awful team and as we were talking offline. It's a bit embarrassing that we've got a team in the conference that's performing at this level, even though they've actually now got a really good coach in Lutz, but they need another recruiting cycle to get on track. Based on the metrics, this is actually projected to be a staggering 24-point win for the Cougs at home by Ken Pong.
00:45:04
Speaker
I think this is one of those, just like you had highlighted, where everyone is going to get to play type of game. And I've projected a closer 70 to 49 21 point win at home because of that dynamic.
Conclusion & Call to Action
00:45:19
Speaker
So that's it for our 41st episode of the No Conference for Old Man podcast. Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, we'd really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via the the Republic of football podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas football as the only basketball center podcast or at the Goku's dot com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way. We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us a follow on our Twitter account. No conference for open. Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout next week to download and listen as our next episode drops. Take care, everyone.