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Culture Win @ Arizona + Reaction to Projected #2 Seed in West
78 Plays2 months ago
Welcome to Episode #44 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
Our Houston Cougars are now 22-4 & 14-1 in the XII after a grind it out slugfest win on the road vs Arizona & then coming back 3 days later to completely dismantle Arizona St to now be 2 games up in sole possession of 1st in the XII. Houston showcased their patience & maturity with AZ, while just shooting lights out vs ASU. Next up is the toughest week of the season, hosting Iowa St for an ESPN Gameday event & then a quick turnaround for a Big Mon showdown at Texas Tech. The 3 Old Men preview the games & then provide their "Instant Reaction" to the Selection Committee's Early Reveal seeding of UH as the #2 Seed out West with Florida.
Please have a listen as the 3 Old Men weigh in & discuss the topic of the week, as well as provide some quick-hit game summaries and previews.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on gocoogs.com/old-men/
Recommended
Transcript
Intro
00:00:15
@NoConfForOldMen
Welcome
Episode Introduction
00:00:15
@NoConfForOldMen
folks to episode number 44 of the No Conference for Old Men podcast, podcast where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball. with a bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well, and proud members of the Gokus.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
Video Episode Announcement
00:00:30
@NoConfForOldMen
We're here today with all three of the old men, Tom Lidiak, former coach, Bill Walker, former player, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy for this episode. And we will attempt to publish our first episode with video in this installment for those that follow us via YouTube.
00:00:45
@NoConfForOldMen
But we'll see how things go during editing after we've done here today.
Houston's Winning Streak in Arizona
00:00:49
@NoConfForOldMen
Well, a huge Arizona swing this past week where UH team won two games in Arizona in extending our sole position of first in the Big 12 standings over Arizona after winning 62-58 at Arizona and turning around three days later to trash ASU 80-65 in another game that was not quite as close as the score would indicate.
Upcoming Challenges for Houston
00:01:09
@NoConfForOldMen
Now comes definitively the toughest week on our schedule with a big ESPN game day visit this Saturday as we host Iowa State followed by a quick turnaround big Monday road game versus Tech to try to even the series this season.
00:01:22
@NoConfForOldMen
In the critical win over Arizona, Houston showed a little bit more maturity in the tight game between two great defenses, while ASU game was more a display of Houston's newfound elite offensive season in just burying ASU in a deluge of shot making throughout the game.
00:01:37
@NoConfForOldMen
We also saw the selection committee in the in-season reveal of the current top 16 seeds with brackets, where our Cougars found themselves at number eight as the final number two seed in the West region paired with Florida.
Selection Committee Rankings Discussion
00:01:50
@NoConfForOldMen
So the special topic this week is going to be around an instant reaction by the old man on how you feel about the selection committee's rankings and placement. So let's get into it. In dissecting our two critical wins this week, let's begin with post-game analyses of the hard-nosed back-and-forth win over Arizona on the road.
Post-Game Analysis: Arizona Win
00:02:07
@NoConfForOldMen
Then we'll transition to your thoughts on the Super Tuesday destruction of Arizona State. Let's start with you first, Tom. What were some of your thoughts from a coach's perspective in the Arizona game?
00:02:18
Tom
First off, the game it was on the road. McHale Center was hopping. That's a tough place to play and get a win. But another tough, gritty win by our Cougs.
00:02:30
Tom
One stat that kind of hopped out to me is we still won, and we only got like three offensive rebounds. I think the official stats say we have six, but every time I think you miss a free throw, I think they credit you to an offensive rebound. So, only three offensive rebounds.
00:02:46
Tom
Both teams didn't shoot very well from three-point land. Arizona continued their shooting woes from the K-State game. They were 5-for-23. We were 5-for-17. we were five for so five for seventeen Emmanuel couldn't hit a bull in the ass from five feet. I think he was over six from three point land, but you know, they were, they were open looks.
00:03:06
Tom
And I, I still think he was, rusty from the effects of the foot. Cause those are shots that, that normally go down before his foot injury. I think he was shooting close to 50%.
00:03:17
Tom
Uh, so his percentages have gone down since that foot injury. Uh, thank God the night he, he got back on track, but, some open shots didn't fall. I think we were down by five at halftime.
00:03:30
Tom
Another key here is Arizona's starting lineup. I'll get back to Tommy Lloyd here real quick.
00:03:36
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep.
00:03:37
Tom
In the past, the knock on Arizona has always been pretty offense. Tommy Lloyd coming from the Mark Fee background, a lot of European, concepts in their offense, always, always pretty to watch.
00:03:49
Tom
And the knock on them was, they were soft, but that's not the case this year. Arizona is playing with the toughness that, that hasn't been seen in a Tommy Lloyd team. Uh, so, they're a gift, give credit to Arizona.
00:04:04
Tom
They were up 48, 41. And then Kelvin called a timeout, made some substitutions. We had Milo's, Juwan, and JoJo coming in And then Sharp, Wilson, and Francis came out. And then that's when we made a run toward the end.
00:04:22
Tom
Magic Johnson calls this winning time. He used to call that winning time. The old knock on the NBA was that, you could always watch the last two minutes of the game and see the whole game. So, tough win for, the Cougs. I think that was our 11th straight road game.
00:04:40
Tom
Uh, another thing I'd like to point out is the starting lineup for Arizona.
00:04:41
@NoConfForOldMen
Incredible.
00:04:45
Tom
They started, Trey Townsend with a Waka in the front court.
00:04:49
@NoConfForOldMen
ye
00:04:50
Tom
I walk it here. he had zero points. Uh, He had three fouls. He only played 15, 15 minutes. I was kind of surprised that, uh, he didn't play more than that.
00:04:57
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:05:01
Tom
I do think Arizona is better, with Townsend out of there. And I think they're better with the Walker and visa are together in the lineup. And later on, when we talk about the Arizona Baylor game, uh, we can mention that,
00:05:13
Tom
also think they're better with Carter Bryant in there instead of Delorso. They're more athletic on defense and then also more dynamic on offense. Make a long story short, just another quintessential Houston Cougar win on the road. you know It wasn't pretty, but who cares? Kelvin always says they don't put an asterisk or they don't you know color pictures next to wind.
00:05:42
Tom
Just a tough win on the road. Another Big 12 win for the Cougs.
00:05:47
@NoConfForOldMen
Nice. I thought it was pretty. hey Bill, how about your views of the Arizona win from a player's perspective?
Remembering Alvin Franklin
00:05:54
Bill Walker
Yeah, before I get into that, I just want to take one minute, hopefully just one quick minute, to mention something that Steve, you and I have talked about, and we should have brought this up a couple weeks ago, and we didn't, but to a former Faislamma Jamma player, just wanted to say rest in peace, Alvin Franklin, I'm
00:06:14
@NoConfForOldMen
Oh, yeah.
00:06:17
Bill Walker
I met Alvin and Ricky Winslow in the very first class I took, first morning class when I first transferred to U of H. And it was a hotel and restaurant class. And we had to get into groups of four to do a project. And I was like, you know what?
00:06:32
Bill Walker
Whether I get an A on this project, whether I fail it, whether I have to do all the work, none of the work, it doesn't matter. I want to be with the two Faislamma Jamma guys. And so I got into a group with them, and Alvin was really the one I connected with and had another class with him, occasionally over at Hoffines would, would shoot around with him. And, just a really, really good guy, you know, starting point guard on one of the final four teams, the final final four team against Georgetown. uh, so I just wanted to say, know, rest in peace, Alvin and, uh, our thoughts go out to his family.
00:07:07
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for mentioning that, Bill.
00:07:08
Bill Walker
Uh, Yeah. Arizona 62 58. this win and text loss to TCU have us in really, I wrote this down prior to ASU, but have us in really good shape going into, ASU and then a few tough games and by really good shape, I don't mean really good shape for second place in the conference.
00:07:34
Bill Walker
second place finish as someone on this podcast recently predicted us to, to, uh, to end up.
00:07:39
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, I did.
00:07:44
@NoConfForOldMen
i did. did. did
00:07:51
Bill Walker
We played great D in the first half. We were down five 30, 25, really due to a putrid half offensively. Sharp was just off, but nobody did a whole lot of scoring the first half, 25 points, and we were out-rebounded in that first half, twenty three fifteen including eight Arizona offensive boards.
00:08:10
Bill Walker
and That's something that I'd highlighted as kind of a key when we previewed the game previously.
00:08:17
Bill Walker
Second half, the D, again, was outstanding. We outscored Arizona 37-28. Yuzan, and I mentioned him, I feel like, weakly. Yuzan was, again, the MVP, going 8 of 12 from the field, scored 19 points.
00:08:35
Bill Walker
dished out five assists, and in 38 minutes, zero turnovers. Although I thought, I'm surprised that they didn't credit him with one turnover because late in the game, and I wanted to jump through the TV, he held the ball and didn't inbound it under our basket.
00:08:46
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Out bounds game, right? Yeah.
00:08:53
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:08:53
Bill Walker
And I was surprised that's not considered a turnover. But in any event, that would have been his only one.
00:08:59
Tom
Hey, guys Bill, Bill, quick real quick interjection here.
00:09:02
Bill Walker
Yeah?
00:09:05
Tom
Some of you guys are on the VIR. No guy named Randy. Randy was at that game right behind the bench, and he said when Milo didn't throw that ball in, he turned to one of his staff members and said that sometimes he's afraid to fail.
00:09:19
Tom
you know He was afraid to fail to make a pass that might get a turnover. So i thought that was an interesting and riing tidbit there.
00:09:28
Bill Walker
Well, that's an interesting... way to think about it because if you don't inbound it, it's, it's a guaranteed turnover.
00:09:34
@NoConfForOldMen
it's It's a turnover. Yeah.
00:09:35
Bill Walker
Yeah. So, in any event, it'll let,
00:09:36
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep.
00:09:40
Bill Walker
assuming that that is a turnover, which I thought it was, it's still one turnover in 38 minutes. so I mean, he's just, exceptional with the ball and running the team.
00:09:50
Bill Walker
Uh, the other star of this game was clearly crier six of 12 from the field, 15 points. he, he wanted the ball toward the end of the game. He played aggressively. He hit his shots.
00:10:02
Bill Walker
Uh, he wanted to make sure we didn't win we did win. We didn't lose. And, During our run, he just ensured that we would maintain our lead and that we would not relinquish it. So I thought he you was great.
00:10:18
Bill Walker
yeah you know Not a lot of big stats for other players, but Arsenault and Roberts did hit huge free throws late to help us maintain that lead. and yeah On the other side, Love and their other guard, K.J. Lewis, well, one of their other guards,
00:10:35
Bill Walker
were their leaders. And even though Love committed five turnovers, which isn't entirely unheard of, and not surprisingly took more shots than anyone on their team.
00:10:45
Bill Walker
And then, Tom, to your point, I had this written down as well, Townsend and Obaka were absolutely nonexistent for the game. Townsend hit one three, and that was it for them.
00:10:56
Bill Walker
Three points for the entire game. Obaka did nothing. And it was in the end, it was a you tough atmosphere, really good road win.
00:11:08
Bill Walker
And, you know, we showed that I think moving forward, we are definitely the better team and the best team in the in the Big 12.
00:11:17
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, agreed. From an analytics perspective, looking at this Arizona game, this was two heavyweights in the Big 12 slugging it out. With these two teams atop the conference standings and with arguably the two best defenses in the league, it was no surprise that on offense, it was tough sledding for both teams, especially from three-point range where Arizona 22% shot 29%.
00:11:38
@NoConfForOldMen
twenty nine percent With a very loud and boisterous crowd on hand, UH really showed its maturity in being able to continue to fight and keep things close, where Arizona took the lead early and was on the verge of blowing things open multiple times in the first half.
00:11:53
@NoConfForOldMen
That was the half that they had good Caleb love. Then it was the second half where we started to chip away, pulling even at 32 all at the 17.02 mark. Arizona then made another run, up seven at the 9.10 mark, but a 16-1 run by our Cougs put the team up for good as we closed things out.
00:12:12
@NoConfForOldMen
Defensively, honestly, both teams played extremely well across the board, keeping both teams below their norms on the offensive side of things. key stat of the day that made the ultimate difference was around turnovers, where we stayed calm on the road for turnovers on 11% of our possessions, where Arizona ended up with 18% turnovers for the game.
00:12:33
@NoConfForOldMen
Caleb Love, for the final nine minutes and 10 seconds of the game, when we made our comeback and the game was decided, guess what he had? Zero points, zero rebounds, zero assists, one turnover, while Uzan and Cryer took turns scoring on him.
00:12:49
@NoConfForOldMen
Bad Caleb Love in the second half. Now for the Super Tuesday showdown versus Arizona State, short turnaround for this game, but we were able to fly the team back for maximum rest between games, which definitely helped with recovery.
00:13:02
@NoConfForOldMen
And this was no contest from the start of the 80 to 65 win. Let's begin with you first, Bill. What were your quick thoughts from player's perspective versus ASU?
00:13:11
Bill Walker
Well, always take notes when I'm watching the game on TV and then I sort of incorporate them into what I intend to say. And my first note was, and I kind of, I didn't yell it at the TV, but I kind of said it, Tuggler, don't play D with your hands.
00:13:29
Bill Walker
ah ah he's He's super athletic.
00:13:29
@NoConfForOldMen
air
00:13:31
Bill Walker
He's extremely aggressive player and, And he is going to commit fouls because of his aggressiveness, no doubt about it. But I just feel like he has to cut down on the dumb fouls when he's reaching.
00:13:44
Bill Walker
And, you know, it's not the real aggressive fouls. It's the cheap ones. And, you know, this game, it didn't matter.
00:13:54
Bill Walker
much at all, but it is going to matter when we get into, the tournament and, we go up against, better teams than, than Arizona state. yeah the The guys I thought that came out really aggressively for us were, as usual, Yuzan, Cryer, and Francis when he came in to substitute for Tuggler.
00:14:09
@NoConfForOldMen
Thank
00:14:16
Bill Walker
yeah i i I noticed right away that Arizona was absolutely one and done. There were no second chance points for them whatsoever. Missed the shot.
00:14:26
Bill Walker
That was it. Get back on defense because we're going to absolutely clean up the boards. And for the game, we out rebounded them. Thirty six, twenty five. Twenty five rebounds is pretty mediocre.
00:14:38
Bill Walker
Part of that has to do with the fact that we shot incredibly well at half. We shot 54.6% from the field while committing only three turnovers to their seven. And we were up 16. Uh, I had one thought at halftime, well, actually during the first half on our good friend, Bobby Hurley
00:14:59
Bill Walker
if his team gets outplayed, if they get out hustled, if they're just beaten, it seems like it can't be on him or his players. It must be the refs. And, their second leading scorer in this game, either their leading scorer for the season, BJ Freeman, he did score 17 and,
00:15:17
Bill Walker
Played all right. He shot an air ball at one point in the first half. He made absolutely zero effort to get back on D and we went down and scored. both announcers talked about it.
00:15:27
Bill Walker
They saw it and they commented on it. At the same time that they were talking about it, the camera focused on Hurley, who was screaming at the officials.
00:15:37
Bill Walker
And I'm not sure why, because that airball there was no one close to fouling Freeman. And so I don't know what he was, you know, maybe it was something previous to that, but, uh, the announcers were all over Freeman. Hurley certainly was not.
00:15:55
Bill Walker
Now I will, i will give Hurley some respect, after the game, he had said that a ton of teams preach culture and talk about how great their culture is.
00:16:08
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah Yeah, that was great.
00:16:18
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:16:21
Bill Walker
and, you know, appreciate it I thought Wilson played with great energy and played with great production off the bench.
00:16:28
Bill Walker
And I thought Yuzan Roberts, Cryer were aggressive and played really well, throughout the entire game. but my game ball for this one goes to sharp, based on the way he's shot and played recently and being affected by the foot.
Highlighting Sharp's Performance
00:16:46
Bill Walker
it was nice to see him, you know, 17 points, four boards, two steals, four of seven from three. He needed that personally. And you have H needs that going forward.
00:16:59
Bill Walker
and all I'll say is not so much from mercy.
00:17:03
@NoConfForOldMen
Haha, yeah, definitely not.
00:17:05
Bill Walker
Uh, one last thing and nothing to do with the game, directly, but, you know, maybe our number two recruiting class isn't entirely complete.
00:17:17
Bill Walker
five-star Cole Pete, who's from Arizona, apparently, i think he was at one of the games, They had mentioned that he had watched them both and both of the Arizona sweep.
00:17:29
@NoConfForOldMen
Haha.
00:17:29
Bill Walker
And, you know, hopefully that bodes well for Calvin and of H is 20, 20, 25, 20, 26 front twenty twenty five twenty twenty six front line
00:17:37
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. honestly, i think he's interested in joining the Cougars, but it's going to be heavily dependent on whether Tuggler comes back or not. If Tuggler comes back, I don't think there's any way compete signs with us, but that's just my opinion.
00:17:52
@NoConfForOldMen
Tom, how about you from a coach's perspective on the, uh, on the game?
00:17:53
Bill Walker
Yeah.
00:17:56
Tom
Well, first thing, I'll respond to Bill talking about the guy shooting the air ball. You know, they come down and then Hurley's just chirping at the referees. My opinion, i just think he's afraid to coach his team.
00:18:09
Tom
You know, instead of yanking the guy who shot the air ball or giving him an earful, you know, he just transfers his ire and his anger, onto the referee.
00:18:21
Tom
You know, in this day and age with – the way college sports are, there's a lot of coaches that are afraid to coach their team because, they're afraid of guys, transferring out.
00:18:28
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:18:31
Tom
But anyway, i don't know what was more entertaining watching Bobby Hurley or watching the game.
00:18:37
@NoConfForOldMen
Bye.
00:18:38
Tom
The guy looks miserable all the time, by the way. Anyway, Bill, you mentioned JoJo getting that second foul. I think he had four of his five fouls.
00:18:50
Tom
I know one was a reach-in, two were push-offs on offensive rebounds, and then another one was an illegal screen. Kelvin talked about that on one of his radio shows a couple of weeks ago about JoJo doing something like – They do what's called gets, where a guard will throw the ball to a big.
00:19:10
Tom
The guard will follow his pass, and then he'll get it but get it back from the big. And then JoJo will like turn his body and stick his butt out and then get called for an offensive foul.
00:19:20
Tom
But, Bill, you're absolutely right. One of these days, it's going to come back and bite us in the ass when we need JoJo. I thought early in the season,
00:19:32
Tom
He had a propensity for reaching in and playing too much with his hands, as did all our big men. And for a while there, it looked like he cleaned it up, but now it's kind of like reverting right back.
00:19:42
Tom
And I put this down here, too, in my notes. It was 18-12, was 18 minutes and 12 seconds left in the first half when he picked up that second foul and had to go to the bench and be an assistant coach.
00:19:54
Tom
Thank God for JVA, though. He comes in and he's, you know, JVA's playing really well.
00:19:57
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:20:01
@NoConfForOldMen
Yes.
00:20:02
Tom
Six for six from the free throw line. You know, not ready to call him Rick Barry yet, but, It's not quite automatic yet, but it's a lot better than flip a coin. You know, let's just hope he makes one out of two.
00:20:15
@NoConfForOldMen
hey Yeah.
00:20:15
Tom
And Kelvin mentioned this on his radio show last night that, JVA is – he's putting in the time, you know, before practice, after practice.
00:20:23
Bill Walker
Yep.
00:20:25
@NoConfForOldMen
I mean, Tom, yeah, the form looks good on his free throws.
00:20:25
Tom
Steve, want say something?
00:20:29
Tom
Yeah. Yeah.
00:20:29
@NoConfForOldMen
And I believe if I'm not mistaken, this season for the season, he's at like 76% free throw line. Crazy. thrill like
00:20:35
Tom
Yeah, is which is amazing because there was a time not too long ago, if he got fouled, it was a turnover because he was going to probably miss the front end of a one-on-one and maybe only make one or two on a shooting foul.
00:20:36
@NoConfForOldMen
crazy
00:20:50
Bill Walker
Yeah, he's worked hard at it.
00:20:50
Tom
he did It was interesting because as soon as JoJo came out and JVA came in, he went to the basket and just got blasted.
00:20:51
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:20:59
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:21:00
Tom
Thankfully, he was able to get up and he wasn't hurt. But I think we had a 20-point lead the first half, going to halftime with a 16-point lead.
00:21:08
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:21:09
Tom
We blow the game open. i think we were up to a 23-point lead. And then Kelvin puts in Sed, Mercy, and KJN. And that oh Hurley starts pressing, you know, with his starting five in there.
00:21:25
Tom
It's like, Kelvin wave the white flag.
00:21:27
Tom
You know, put your son in the game.
00:21:28
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:21:29
Tom
You know, put those other guys in the game.
00:21:30
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep.
00:21:33
Tom
So anyway, the lead shrinks to 12. And Kelvin does one of these, you know, like he's signaling to, think it was LJ and Lowe's to get back in the game. And as a head coach, he's,
00:21:44
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:21:45
Tom
You know, I've been in a situation before where you want to get some guys in the game. you got a lead. And then with one minute left, you got to put the starters back in. And that that just I don't know how Kelvin felt about it.
00:21:54
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, yeah
00:21:58
Tom
But it sometimes it almost feels like he lost the game when that happens. So the bench guys when you come in, here's your chance. You know, here's your chance here.
00:22:06
@NoConfForOldMen
exactly.
00:22:07
Tom
Yeah. You know, if you want more playing time, don't, don't blow a 23 point lead and have coach have to put his starters back in.
00:22:14
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep.
00:22:15
Tom
But overall, another great win. What was it? 80 to 65, 12, uh, I think it's 12 consecutive road wins now.
00:22:19
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep.
00:22:24
Tom
that, that's, that's just an amazing stat, to win that many games.
00:22:26
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, big 12 record, right?
00:22:29
Tom
I believe, I believe so.
00:22:29
Bill Walker
Yes.
00:22:30
@NoConfForOldMen
Big 12 record for consecutive road wins. So incredible.
00:22:33
Tom
I believe, I believe so. And,
The Role of Veterans in Road Victories
00:22:37
Tom
Kelvin on his radio show again, I think the question was, how are you able to win on the road? and he just said, you know, tough players, but especially older, mature and experienced players, which brings up the question, you next year we're to have, we're going to have three freshmen, and, uh, and hopefully we bring, back a bunch of veterans.
00:22:58
Tom
Because, yeah, to win on the road, you know, you have to have that experience. Young teams, it's tough. It's tough to go on the road and play. But do you mix them in with those veterans and we're going be all right.
00:23:10
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. for this game on offense, this was an extremely hot shooting night for our Cougs. And keep in mind that ASU was the 41st adjusted defensive efficiency team in the country coming in, and the 34th team in the country at defending the three-point line.
00:23:26
@NoConfForOldMen
Honestly, we just carved them up, ending up at over 58% effective field goal percentage while shooting 48% from three-point range, guys. Just
Houston's Victory Over ASU
00:23:34
@NoConfForOldMen
crazy. On defense, though, in the end, ASU shot close to their norms for the game.
00:23:39
@NoConfForOldMen
The vast majority of their main buckets were after the game was no longer in doubt. And we'll get into that a little bit later on in this episode when we talk about the projected seedings for the tourney and some of the nuances around the various metrics that we're measuring teams with.
00:23:56
@NoConfForOldMen
but a much more straightforward win versus ASU than I expected. Then pair that win with Tech's loss last night to TCU, and we are now two games up on Arizona and three games up on Tech in Iowa State in the Big 12 standings with five games to go.
00:24:12
@NoConfForOldMen
Now let's get to Houston's toughest pair of games for the season coming up, hosting Iowa State on game day Saturday first, and then Tech for a big Monday showdown.
00:24:22
@NoConfForOldMen
Let's provide a quick preview and cover both games together. Bill, you can go first from a player's perspective on both games.
00:24:29
Bill Walker
Okay, Saturday, early game, 11 o'clock ESPN. State is 21-5, 11-4 in the Big 12.
00:24:42
Bill Walker
After their losing streak, they kind of plummeted, but they're back up to a tie for third. We all kind of initially predicted them to battle us for the big 12 title and, you know, not one person, on this podcast, certainly not me, uh, even predicted ISU to, uh, to be better than the Baylor, uh,
00:25:07
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:25:12
Bill Walker
you know, the three game losing streak included a miracle loss at Arizona, a bad loss at Kansas.
00:25:16
Tom
you
00:25:19
Bill Walker
And then the shocking one, the blowout loss at home against Kansas state.
00:25:24
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:25:24
Bill Walker
And so, you know, they're sitting where they are. It's a tough three game losing streak. And, it's going to mean that they're not going to challenge for the big 12 title.
00:25:36
Bill Walker
Well, last I looked, they were still number nine in Ken Palm, and we're three. And the tournament selection committee, and I'm going to just say in its infinite wisdom because I'm a little perplexed it and at their rankings, but we'll get to that.
00:25:54
Bill Walker
Has Iowa State at nine? Only one spot behind us, surprisingly.
00:26:00
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:26:02
Bill Walker
both I'm assuming will rise in those rankings, especially us. Iowa state has traditionally been a, a tough defensive team similar to us, but with some highly offensive players
00:26:17
Bill Walker
or maybe I should rephrase that as good offensive players. I don't know how offensive they are, but, you know, really, really added to the playing mix this year.
00:26:27
Bill Walker
ISU is scoring over 81 points per game. They're led as they were last year by an exceptional backcourt, which is really kind of expanded from two to three this year.
00:26:39
Bill Walker
Taman Lipsy runs the show. He's a slightly... lesser athletic version of Jamal shed six, one junior point guard, 10 and a half points, uh, just under three boards, three assists, two steals, two turnovers.
00:26:56
Bill Walker
he's a decent shooter, but not necessarily great, but if you leave him alone, he will hit shots. he's always a threat. He's a great defensive player.
00:27:05
Bill Walker
Keyshawn Gilbert is their shooting guard. Six, four, uh, leads them in minutes at 32, a game, 14 points, uh, almost four rebounds, four and a half assists, 3.2 turnovers, which is a ton.
00:27:19
Bill Walker
Uh, Uh, he's quick and he, he can shoot, Then we have Curtis Jones, who came couple years ago from the University of Buffalo.
00:27:30
Bill Walker
He's their leading scorer, 17 points, four and a half boards, and he shoots 37% from threes. Obviously a good scorer. He's been a little up and down recently, but those three are the keys for you of H to defend, to make sure that we win that game, which we will.
00:27:50
Bill Walker
Their front court consists, there are several players, but there really only two to kind of focus on. One's Joshua Jefferson, the 6'9", junior, who came in from St.
00:27:59
Tom
Thank you.
00:28:00
Bill Walker
Mary's. He's fit in really well with them. 13 points, eight boards, a few assists, couple steals, couple turnovers. But he scores inside and out.
00:28:12
Bill Walker
And then Finally, we have our mortal enemy from last year who's now healthy, Milan Momsilovic, the 6'8 sophomore. And I've always got to mention this from just outside Milwaukee.
00:28:25
Bill Walker
And, he's he's been hurt. He's only played 19 games, but he's back. He's healthy. And in their recent win over mighty Colorado, Momsilovic played 31 minutes. He started, scored 13 points in the 31 minutes.
00:28:41
Bill Walker
He didn't shoot very well, but he got to the free throw line. In any event, he's back. The other starter is 6'11", Deshaun Jackson, and he's just, he's a load and he plays entirely inside.
00:28:54
Bill Walker
You know, state State had their slump, but they seem to have righted the ship, which is too bad coming into the game with us.
00:29:00
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:29:01
Bill Walker
But I'm not sure that it's going to matter. We need to defend both the perimeter and the dribble penetration from their guards. That I think is critical.
00:29:11
Bill Walker
I think we can turn them over. i think they can tend to get a little sloppy with the ball, especially Gilbert. And offensively, we need to protect the ball.
00:29:22
Bill Walker
because their guards are good at creating turnovers. We need to move the ball effectively like we have, and we need to ride Juwan inside. And then if they sag down on him, they double him, monster him, whatever, we need to hit threes, especially when we get open shots.
00:29:38
Bill Walker
And Yuuzhan needs to just continue his above solid play running the team. You know, ISU has become a high-scoring team. We need to control the tempo in this game, and I think we will.
00:29:51
Bill Walker
And at Fertitta, I see us winning sixty eight sixty one
00:29:52
Tom
Thank you.
00:29:55
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay. Awesome. How about the tech game?
00:29:58
Bill Walker
Okay. Following ISU, I mean, this is a tough two-game stretch. We follow them with Tech, which is –
00:30:04
@NoConfForOldMen
It is.
00:30:06
Bill Walker
which is Monday ESPN in Lubbock. Tech's tied for third with ISU 11-4, 26 overall.
00:30:14
Bill Walker
Heading into this week, Tech, like ISU, was a projected three-seed in the NCAAs. That may not remain the case as Tech lost a couple of nights ago to lowly TCU, 69-66, which was for i mean it was shocking.
00:30:30
@NoConfForOldMen
beautiful. Yeah. Yeah.
00:30:32
Bill Walker
Well, i yeah, maybe I prefer your...
00:30:34
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:30:34
Bill Walker
your
00:30:35
@NoConfForOldMen
ha
00:30:36
Bill Walker
Your term, Steve. I was stunned.
00:30:39
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:30:40
Bill Walker
Yeah. i And in that game, oddly enough, Tech Stars played pretty well.
00:30:46
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:30:47
Bill Walker
Top end, uh, you know, topping of the the kick between Tuggler's legs and the flagrant two ejection. He scored 14, grabbed 11 boards.
00:30:58
Bill Walker
Darian Williams was 9 of 15 for 21 points, and Chance McMillan was 7 of 10 from the field, including 5 of 7 from 3 for 19 points. And yet they still lost to TCU. And I think the one player...
00:31:14
Bill Walker
who played horribly for them, who really took us apart, was their point guard, Elijah Hawkins.
00:31:19
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:31:20
Bill Walker
He did dish out an impressive nine assists versus TCU, which is really his forte, but he shot two of six from the field and scored four points. Didn't get to the line.
00:31:31
Bill Walker
yeah We don't need him dishing out nine assists, certainly, but I'd be thrilled with two of six from the field and four points and no free throws against us, that, that would be just fine.
00:31:44
Bill Walker
Uh, you know, also tech shot only eight total free throws versus TCU. And if you recall after the mess with Toppin and Tuggler, the officiating just, I don't know how to describe it.
00:31:57
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Tightened up.
00:31:59
Bill Walker
I'll just say questionable. They shot 34 free throws in the game against us. And granted, the game went to overtime at 72.
00:32:11
Bill Walker
And it would have been probably in the, well, not probably, it would have been in the 60s, you know, except for their late flurry scoring and, of course, fouls when Tech was down. Yeah.
00:32:24
Bill Walker
There are a lot of dynamics in play in this game. Can we control tempo? Can we defend their perimeter, not foul, and handle their guards off the dribble? I hate to say this, and I hate to even focus on it, but the officials could very likely play a big role in how this game is played.
00:32:44
Bill Walker
and it's a fine line, but if we remain aggressive, but disciplined, meaning no of the dumb fouls that I've mentioned and Tom, you had mentioned, I think we'll be just fine. We'll work Roberts inside, just like we did in the tech game where, where we kept going to him over and over and he kept scoring over and over.
00:33:03
Bill Walker
We get solid production out of a healthy sharp. And I think we're in business. Tech, tech almost lost at home to Arizona state just recently.
00:33:12
Bill Walker
Then they did lose at TCU. So yeah, They're a little up and down right now. i think we go in there and we also win this game by seven, just like Iowa State.
00:33:18
@NoConfForOldMen
Absolutely.
00:33:21
Bill Walker
I think we win 73-66.
00:33:25
Bill Walker
Yeah, a couple of consecutive seven-point victories for us.
00:33:31
@NoConfForOldMen
That would be golden if it happens. about you, Tom, from a coach's perspective for both games?
00:33:36
Tom
I'm with Bill. I think we win both of these.
00:33:38
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:33:39
Tom
They're going to be tough. They're going tough games. I don't know if Kelvin's into.
00:33:44
Bill Walker
Great minds think alike.
00:33:46
@NoConfForOldMen
That's right.
00:33:46
Tom
Yeah.
00:33:47
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep.
00:33:47
Tom
Yeah. I don't. Kelvin probably is not into revenge, but there's a lot of guys on our team that, uh, probably remember that 28 point drubbing to Iowa state and the worthless, useless big 12 tournament, you know, and Iowa have a state people, Oh, you know, we won the big 12.
00:34:03
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:34:06
Tom
We, we, we won the conference. No, you didn't. You won, a tournament that very few people care about, you know,
00:34:12
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Doesn't matter. Yeah.
00:34:15
Tom
Anyway, they got Momsilovich back. Like Bill said, they had their struggles there. I'm not sure if their struggles were all related to not having Momsilovich.
00:34:25
Tom
Iowa State's been an interesting team this year. They're more of an offensive team than they were past couple of years. Bill said they averaged like 81 points a game.
00:34:35
Tom
If you look on paper, they lost Trey King and Rob Jones in the front court, and then they added Jefferson from St. Mary's and then Deshaun Jackson from Charlotte.
00:34:44
@NoConfForOldMen
Nice.
00:34:46
Tom
And on paper, that's an upgrade. However, it might not be an upgrade as far as toughness and defense go. So they've been an interesting team this year, and we'll just have to see how it goes on Saturday. But I'm predicting – I'm predicting a U of H win here.
00:35:05
@NoConfForOldMen
nice
00:35:05
Tom
Big key is Emmanuel hitting some shots again. That opens up a lot of stuff for us offensively. Milo's, he has experience playing against Iowa State when he played for OU.
00:35:19
Tom
So he's familiar with Coach Otz's defensive system. so there won't be any surprise there. Last year i was at that game in Ames where we just got, it's like we were, we were shell shocked.
00:35:32
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:35:33
Tom
and We'd never played in Ames before, never played a, TJ team. And, and it was like the first time we ever got trapped before, you know, and, and remember we were down like 14, zero before Emmanuel hit one from Fort Dodge.
00:35:47
Tom
Let's make it like 14 three.
00:35:48
Tom
anyway,
00:35:49
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:35:50
Tom
but anyway two great programs, two really tough teams, nothing's going to be easy.
00:36:01
Tom
think it'll come down to, like I mentioned earlier, Magic Johnson, you know, in winning time. And we just seem to have our propensity, late in the game, for somebody hit some, some key shots, whether it's LJ, whether it's a Milo's or whether it's a Juwan. So,
00:36:18
Tom
That's the Iowa State game. And plus, that game's on a Saturday. And I go to church on Sunday, and we'll have to face some Iowa State fans there. So come on, Cougs.
00:36:27
@NoConfForOldMen
Awesome.
00:36:30
Tom
Let's do it.
00:36:31
@NoConfForOldMen
I love that.
00:36:33
Tom
Cause I had to hear them last year after, after they beat us in the big 12, conference tournament.
00:36:37
Tom
And I was trying to tell them, what would you rather have?
00:36:40
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:36:41
Tom
Would you rather have a 15, three record and win the conference by two or three games over a span of like two and a half months or, you know, win this conference tournament that only bubble teams and you care about, cause you don't have to more than half the crowd was Iowa state fans.
00:36:52
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. yeah
00:36:57
Tom
I go into Texas tech. Another game, if people are into revenge, here's a revenge game for us. The first time we played them, the karate kick to JoJo.
00:37:09
Tom
And by the way, it's like, did anybody ever care whether JoJo was all right after that scissors kick in the groin? I mean, nobody ever like was concerned about JoJo.
00:37:18
@NoConfForOldMen
Nope. Nobody. Yeah.
00:37:22
Tom
He's the real victim there. The guy just got kicked in the Netherlands and of a sudden the focus was on, you know, Toppin getting kicked out.
00:37:28
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:37:33
Tom
And Bill, I agree with you here. I think the officials, realized they made a mistake and they wanted to make sure that, the revenue wasn't the reason that, Texas tech lost after kicking out their best player,
00:37:48
Tom
You know, nothing really egregious. I really like to see another angle of that three-point shot attempt where they said, I think Malik, they said foul, but there's only one view of that. It's from the side.
00:38:01
Tom
But they call a foul on that. And that other one where Elijah, what's his name? Elijah Hawkins?
00:38:05
@NoConfForOldMen
Hawkins.
00:38:05
Bill Walker
Hawkins.
00:38:06
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:38:06
Tom
where he spun on Malik and, it looks like he just fell and they called a foul. And that was five points right there. After we had that five point lead and they, they tied up anyway, back to the game on, is it Monday or is it too Monday game?
00:38:19
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep. Big Monday.
00:38:19
Bill Walker
Yes.
00:38:21
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep.
00:38:21
Bill Walker
Yep.
00:38:22
Tom
Quick turnaround, you know, The people in Lubbock, what's their arena called? I'm not sure what it's called, but, they're going to be in a froth.
00:38:32
Tom
They're going be foaming at the mouth.
00:38:32
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep.
00:38:34
Tom
They'll be their Super Bowl. You know, if they win this game, they'll think they invented basketball.
00:38:37
@NoConfForOldMen
Exactly.
00:38:40
Tom
So, but I'm predicting we go in there. We're on a roll. And i think we come out there with a win.
00:38:49
@NoConfForOldMen
Nice.
00:38:49
Tom
going do a great job on Toppin. Toppin's really tough. Got to get it on their shooters. Tech's a tough team, but we're tougher.
00:38:56
@NoConfForOldMen
They are nice.
00:38:59
Bill Walker
They'll also had a couple of perimeter guys really step up and shoot well against us at Fertitta Center.
00:39:07
@NoConfForOldMen
Out of their minds.
00:39:08
Bill Walker
It's not going to be, one, that I don't think they shoot as well. Two, it's going to be an entirely different game because Toppin's going to be playing unless he does the same thing.
00:39:16
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:39:17
Bill Walker
So it's going to be an entirely different style of play in this game.
00:39:18
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:39:22
@NoConfForOldMen
Completely agree.
00:39:22
Tom
And last year when we played Tech, I'll give an example. Kerber and Walton, you know, he didn't make anything against us in our couple of games last year.
00:39:29
@NoConfForOldMen
Exactly.
00:39:30
Tom
And then, of course, he made everything at Fertitta.
00:39:31
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:39:34
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Well, we'll see. So from an analytics perspective, Iowa State is going to be a big-time challenge, being much more balanced this season, as you guys had mentioned. They're number 9th now in Ken Palm in our 11-4 in conference play.
00:39:48
@NoConfForOldMen
ISU is number 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency and number 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency in Ken Palm, while we're now number 7 in adjusted offensive efficiency and holding steady at number 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
00:40:01
@NoConfForOldMen
So this will be another battle heavyweights in the Big 12 season. with both elite and balanced teams. ISU, surprisingly for a team rated so high on both sides of the ball, they don't have a lot of grain from an advanced analytics, detailed statistics profile. And we define that by being top 40 in the country in specific stats, but they're good or high good across the board this season.
00:40:25
@NoConfForOldMen
On offense, they're a far better shooting team this season, number 55 in effective field goal percentage, and particularly strong near the rim at number 43 in two-point percentage shooting. ISU is also heavily reliant on free throws to generate offense this year, ranking 55th in free throws as a percentage of offense.
00:40:44
@NoConfForOldMen
On D, like last season, ISU relies heavily on steals, ranking 14th in the country and turning teams over, ranked 18th in turnover percentage D. But as we know,
00:40:55
@NoConfForOldMen
Our strengths on offense and defense run counter to ISU's strengths, where we rank fourth in two-point percentage D and number 11th in turnover percentage on offense.
00:41:05
@NoConfForOldMen
So it's going to be strength versus strength in this matchup with whomever is able to impose their will winning in the end. But like we discussed last episode, we're no longer one-trick pony on both sides of the ball.
00:41:17
@NoConfForOldMen
As the number six team in three-point percentage offense, expect us to test their mediocre three-point D. And where ISU can be careless with the ball at times, expect our number 11th turnover percentage D to disrupt their offensive flow.
00:41:30
@NoConfForOldMen
And remember, folks, this one's at home. Based on the metrics, this is projected to be a six-point win at home for the Cougs from Ken Palm. I view this as ISU's Super Bowl game, given they are likely out of the conference title chase.
00:41:43
@NoConfForOldMen
So I'm predicting a closer 70 to 64, six-point win for the Cougs. And then for the Tech game, I don't know, trying to return the favor for current only Big 12 loss so far this season. Tech's been stellar this season, but are coming off three-point loss at TCU, as we talked about.
00:42:02
@NoConfForOldMen
Even after that loss, they're still coming in at a dangerous number eight in Ken Palm. They're 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency and number 35 in adjusted defensive efficiency in Ken Palm. So it will be a challenge to contain their offense on the road in Lubbock.
00:42:16
@NoConfForOldMen
On offense, Tech is an exceptionally great shooting team. They're currently 16th in effective field goal percentage in Ken Palm and strong from both three as well as two point range. In addition, they also offensive rebound their few misses, ranking 39th in offensive rebound rate.
00:42:31
@NoConfForOldMen
Really no weaknesses on offense except for a tendency to sometimes turn the ball over like they did with TCU. So if we stay true to our defensive principles, we'll need to take advantage of those turnover opportunities for transition buckets.
00:42:45
@NoConfForOldMen
On D, Tech is good all around, not exceptional at anything. We're going take advantage is at the three-point line where Tech is 1 16th in three-point percentage D, as well as right at the rim where they are terrible at blocking shots, wrecking 262nd.
00:43:00
@NoConfForOldMen
So in this rematch, expect us to spread them out on the arc for threes, Bounce with heavy doses of Roberts in the post. I also expect Arsenal to have a nice rebound game for this one. Based on the metrics, this is projected to be a one-point win on the road for the Cougs by Ken Palm.
00:43:17
@NoConfForOldMen
I think our team is going to be zeroed in for this game, given what happened last time at Fertitta. So I actually think we get revenge with a bigger 67-63 four-point in Lubbock. So since the selection committee came out with their early reveal top 16 seed projections for the tourney,
00:43:37
@NoConfForOldMen
How about we all weigh in on how we felt with the committee's number eight overall ranking for Houston, as well as being placed as the number two seed in the West, along with number one seed Florida and number three, Kentucky and number four, Michigan.
00:43:50
@NoConfForOldMen
Tom, what's your take on the seeding as well as the placement? You upset? how do you like the bracket, I guess, with Florida and are we underappreciated at this point?
00:44:00
Tom
ah personally I personally, don't mind us being, being a two, uh, when you got that one, uh, it, it seems like it's a bullseye on us.
00:44:10
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:44:12
Tom
you know, if you're going to the national championship, you're going to have to, uh, beat really good teams and I'm okay.
00:44:17
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:44:18
Tom
I'm okay with the two. Uh, if we continue playing like we do, i would be upset if we were a three. I do know there's a lot of people talking about sec bias.
00:44:29
Tom
Uh, some people are talking about, all four seeds being sec, blah, blah, blah. And all this, kind of like, uh, the sec was in, you was in football.
00:44:34
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:44:39
Tom
But like I said, I'm ah okay with a two. A lot of times when it comes to March Madness NCAA tournament, it's not your seed.
00:44:49
Tom
It is the matchup and the style of play of the team that you're going to play.
00:44:52
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:44:56
Tom
So that part is kind of a crapshoot. I mean, I don't think the NCAA tournament committee is going to go in there and say, hey, you know, of H is a number one seed, but this is a bad matchup for them if you know if we put them in their bracket.
00:45:12
Tom
So a little bit has to do with luck as far as like injuries go. And then, the luck of the draw, who you end up playing. There's always upsets. So, once the bracket comes out, you know who you're going to play in the first game. But after that, it's a crapshoot.
00:45:26
Tom
So yeah, style of plays is huge when you go into the tournament.
00:45:32
@NoConfForOldMen
So Tom then, and granted, right, this isn't the real bracket, but how do you like the matchup with Florida as a one seed, potentially, if this were to come to fruition, as well as Kentucky in the Elite Eight? How do you think we match up then?
00:45:48
Tom
I'd love to see us play Kentucky because I think we're a lot better team than them.
00:45:50
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:45:51
Tom
I think we're a lot tougher than them.
00:45:54
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, completely agree.
00:45:54
Tom
you know Florida has had some shootouts, you know, games. I'd be more concerned playing a team that's kind of like a mirror image of us rather than,
00:46:06
Tom
Some teams I wouldn't be afraid to play because you know you're to shots and it's just a but just a question of whether you make them or not. Some teams are really, really good defensively and open shots are tougher to come by. So if I had my druthers, I'd rather go up against a team that's more offensive-centric than more like a mirror image of us.
00:46:30
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay. Okay, cool. How about you, Bill, from a player's perspective?
00:46:35
Bill Walker
Well, it's their first release, so I don't really care. always talk about how the rankings don't really matter to me until it becomes Selection Sunday. Now, I will...
00:46:47
@NoConfForOldMen
Well, be careful, Bill, because historically speaking, these reveals, they don't change much. They do not change much. They were showing statistics around how much it changes. You might have one or two fall off at the end and maybe a little bit of movement between, one and two and two and three, but it doesn't change much.
00:47:06
Bill Walker
Well, maybe, but Alabama just lost at home to Auburn and they've got to play Auburn again. So there's going to be another loss for them.
00:47:14
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep.
00:47:15
Bill Walker
Uh, you know, who knows, maybe they play them a third time in the sec tournament and lose three times.
00:47:21
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep. yep
00:47:22
Bill Walker
but, uh, you've got Auburn, you've got Alabama, you've got Florida and you got Tennessee for the top five. A bunch of them are going to be playing each other. they're still scheduled.
00:47:32
Bill Walker
Uh, so there are going to be some losses with those top sec teams. A&M is number six and we're number eight. And that, you know, while once again, the rankings right now are the rankings, but I've got to imagine that, the national problem that, we've had with fentanyl clearly made it to the committee.
00:47:56
@NoConfForOldMen
Ha ha ha ha!
00:47:59
Bill Walker
how we're eight and A&M is six is beyond me, but, A&M fortunately proved me right and lost. Number seven ahead of us is Purdue. They lost at home to Wisconsin.
00:48:15
Bill Walker
But there are a lot of things about this that don't make a ton of sense. I mean, if the draw played out the way that they've currently got it, I guess I'm okay with it.
00:48:26
Bill Walker
If I'm Tennessee, I'd be livid and... I'm not sure why. thought that when they put their bracket out like this, I thought, and they do their top 16, I thought they typically, you know, 1-4, whatever, or if you go to quarterfinals, 1-8, 2-7, 4-5. If we're the number eight team,
00:48:54
Bill Walker
if we're the number eighteen why would we in the elite eight be playing the number four team? why wouldn't we be playing the number one team? and I don't know if that has to do with, uh, but if that's how the bracket turned out, I'd be perfectly okay with it. I'd be livid if I was Tennessee and I ended up the number five team
00:49:16
Bill Walker
And I wasn't playing Florida, the number four team, and I'm playing you know a much higher-seeded team. Quite honestly, if this is generally how it plays out, I want to play Duke.
00:49:30
Bill Walker
i
00:49:31
@NoConfForOldMen
ha Yeah.
00:49:32
Bill Walker
I think Duke is overrated. I think they're playing in... in one of the worst conferences in the country. I think that this may be the worst year historically in the ACC. I don't think Duke's beaten... They did beat Auburn early in the year by a point, but I'd love to be in the same region as Duke.
00:49:57
Bill Walker
That's... Yeah, that's about it. I will say... because of the games that get played with each other, no chance, none that there are four sec seeds, uh, uh, top seeds, the top four.
00:50:10
Bill Walker
I've had this, this debate with, with a couple others. There is no chance. I would bet my life on that. And, um, And,
00:50:20
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, I would agree. I mean, especially with Duke, no one's going to stop Duke in the ACC, like you said, Matt.
00:50:23
Bill Walker
Yeah, that's exactly right. They've got no competition. they lost to Clemson, but they're just far superior to anyone in the ACC, so I don't expect them to lose again, and I think some of these teams that are, well, at least few of them that are ahead of us right now. And I've mentioned Purdue and but even, even like I said, Alabama and Florida and Tennessee, they're all going to suffer losses down the stretch. And, that's a by-product of the SEC being so good and so top heavy, they're going to be playing each other. And some of those teams are going to,
00:51:00
Bill Walker
probably have multiple losses down the stretch. So I think I want us to be a one seed. It's not going to kill me if we're a two, but I want us to be a one seed.
00:51:10
@NoConfForOldMen
Agreed.
00:51:11
Bill Walker
And I still absolutely think we will be because of some of the SEC attrition.
00:51:17
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay. So for me, viewed strictly from an advanced analytics perspective, obviously I was disappointed by the right gig at good number eight as the lowest number two seed in the committee's reveal.
00:51:29
@NoConfForOldMen
If you look at our resume, 12-1 the Big 12 at the time, at top what was consistently the number one conference in the land over the last decade or so.
00:51:34
Bill Walker
Thank you.
00:51:39
@NoConfForOldMen
Clear number three in Ken Palm with our strongest net efficiency rating of the Samson era. Number one seed in both Haslametritz and Bart Torvik. Four losses, none bad.
00:51:51
@NoConfForOldMen
Three of them in overtime and the other by five to the number one team of the country. To me, that reads like a number one seed. But I was not surprised where we landed, especially when humans are involved in the process.
00:52:04
@NoConfForOldMen
Three losses early during non-con when impressions are solidified was not good. The San Diego State University, and they're 41st at this point, loss was especially the weight around our neck, if you want to call it that.
00:52:19
@NoConfForOldMen
An exceptionally strong year by the SEC with Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and even Missouri this year. Plus having lost to their top two teams this season also cements an impression in the committee members' minds.
00:52:32
@NoConfForOldMen
An exceptionally, yeah.
00:52:32
Bill Walker
And a and now
00:52:34
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah Well, I don't consider them good, quite honestly.
00:52:39
Bill Walker
but
00:52:39
@NoConfForOldMen
and
00:52:39
Bill Walker
The committee does.
00:52:40
@NoConfForOldMen
I know they do, and they're wrong. An exceptionally weak year, like you mentioned, in the ACC, propping up Duke to no end. And you know they're going to have a one seed, there's no doubt.
00:52:50
@NoConfForOldMen
Tennessee is the only one of the top teams with a comparable loss to ours, Vandy, right, who's 47th. But even that loss was on the road. And finally, our schedule is admittedly backloaded. and So when this came out, we were still yet to play Arizona, which we won, and we've still got ISU at Tech, KU, and at Baylor.
00:53:11
@NoConfForOldMen
So the reality is, If we take our business with only one loss along the final stretch, I believe we actually do get that coveted number one seed. Objectively looking at resumes, I thought we'd be number five or number six as one the top two seeds competing with Tennessee.
00:53:26
@NoConfForOldMen
I did not expect us to be behind A&M, who had already lost to UCF or Purdue, who had already lost to Penn State. Clear message from this season's committee was heavy reliance on wins above bubble, whatever that means.
00:53:41
@NoConfForOldMen
And given our schedule is back-loaded, it hurt us. Now things do tend to sort themselves out. Purdue is now on a three-game losing streak after losing to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Michigan State.
00:53:53
@NoConfForOldMen
And A&M was just blasted by Mississippi State. Plus, you know teams like Tennessee, like you said, Tennessee, Florida, Bama, Auburn, they still have play each other in this final stretch as well.
00:54:04
@NoConfForOldMen
But with this team, I would not have an issue or concern being a number two seed paired against any team other than Auburn. I'd really like to avoid Auburn, quite honestly. But anyone else...
00:54:17
@NoConfForOldMen
I think our team plays better, right, when they're feeling a little bit slighted. So a number two is fine for me. I believe we actually match up well versus Florida and Duke. And even though we've lost close ones to Bama over the past three years, I still like our chances this season, given how both teams have progressed over the season.
00:54:36
@NoConfForOldMen
But even in looking at how the committee placed the teams in this early reveal, I take that projected draw that they came out with in a second. I mean, paired with Florida as the number one seed in the West, which, Bill, you and I have mentioned as potentially overrated this season.
00:54:52
@NoConfForOldMen
Then Kentucky with Pope as the fourth seed with their number 68th defense or, you know,
00:54:55
Tom
Thank you.
00:54:58
@NoConfForOldMen
God forbid, Michigan as the number three with their double post offense. I love those matchups for us. Plus being in Northern California and in the West, that would allow me to actually attend those games in San Francisco. So I'm, I'm all for that baby.
00:55:12
@NoConfForOldMen
Now, I also took some time to dig in deeper into the advanced analytics this week. And what you'll notice is that the three main advanced analytics sites have some differences in how teams are ranked.
00:55:23
@NoConfForOldMen
And I'll repeat, we're number three in Ken Palm, but we're actually number one overall Haslametrics and Bart Torvik. And why is that? Well, there's a nuance between the sites when measuring adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency, where Kenpaw measures the whole game stats from beginning to end, while the other two sites only measure that period where they respectively deem the game is statistically still in doubt.
00:55:44
Tom
you
00:55:47
@NoConfForOldMen
And the result of that nuance? offensively, we're number three most efficient in the country behind Auburn and Duke in Haslametris. In defense, we're number one across the board with Haslametris and Bart Torvik when that's taken into consideration. What it tells us is that this season,
00:56:03
Bill Walker
Thank you.
00:56:07
@NoConfForOldMen
The two teams we theoretically should want to pair up against in our quadrant come turny time, it's Bama and then Florida, where both, especially Bama, have racked up margin of victory after the game has been somewhat decided.
00:56:23
@NoConfForOldMen
So we'll see where it lands. But the bottom line is basically, if we take our business, maintain our adjusted offensive efficiency above 124, and we're above 125 at this point after ASU, we'll be ready for our best chance at a national championship run, even if we're a number two seed.
00:56:41
@NoConfForOldMen
So that's it for our 44th episode of the No Conference for Old Men podcast. And before we sign off today, just wanted to dedicate this episode to Chloe, our family Maltese of 15 and a half years that we lost on Valentine's Day.
00:56:55
@NoConfForOldMen
We do miss you, little girl. And with that, we do hope that you all enjoyed this episode. And again, would really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice.
00:57:07
@NoConfForOldMen
We're also available via the Republican Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as the only basketball-centric podcast. We're at the gocooks.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way.
00:57:20
@NoConfForOldMen
We appreciate the continued support from all. Also, please give us follow on our Twitter account, No Conference for Old Men. Thank you all again for listening and be on the lookout next week to download and listen as our next episode drops.
00:57:31
@NoConfForOldMen
Take care, everyone.