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Episode 431: Matchday Preview: FINAL DAY OF SEASON AWAY TO PRESTON!
102 Plays13 days ago
Southampton – Last time out the performance from PNE was enough to get our manager fired but both teams are in very different circumstances now. Are Preston on the beach? Will we heavily rotate? Still a lot to think about heading into this game!
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Transcript
Introduction and Co-host Absent
00:00:13
DailySaintsPod
Hello and welcome back to the Daily Saints pod. My name is Greg and unfortunately once again not joined by my good friend and wonderful co-host Zach because he is still off on holiday.
Recap of Previous Discussion
00:00:28
DailySaintsPod
We talked yesterday at length about the final day of the season and the different permutations that could crop up. But one thing that stood out true in that episode is that none of it matters unless we win this game.
Importance of Upcoming Match
00:00:44
DailySaintsPod
It all comes down to 12.30 on a Saturday, hopefully in the sun.
00:00:50
DailySaintsPod
At Preston North End. Look, big match preview today. But before we get to it, just some other Saints stuff floating around to to talk about as we'd like to do but There was an interview with Daniel Peretz in the BILD, I think it's a newspaper in Germany. a Big piece of media out there. We get quite a lot from them.
Peretz's Impact and Potential Signing
00:01:16
DailySaintsPod
And he said that he noticed the warmth from the fans the very first second.
00:01:25
DailySaintsPod
And he was very grateful for it It's not something to take for granted arriving in a new place and being supported and loved by the fans like this. And I truly appreciate it. He went on to say, I'm really enjoying it here right now.
00:01:38
DailySaintsPod
also have a very good connection with my coach, Tonda Rekut, my teammates, the fans and everyone at the club. My confidence grows with every game and I feel better and better. And that's great.
00:01:49
DailySaintsPod
That is fantastic news. It's what we want to be hearing. It's secret that we on this show of big fans of Perets and the stability and confidence that he has instilled in the team. I think it's fair to say that goalkeeper wasn't the only problem with the squad in the early part of the season, but it was a problem.
00:02:12
DailySaintsPod
And... you know the The results speak for themselves since since he's come in. He's built confidence into the defence. He commands the box. He helps line up set pieces you know like Ryan Manning's goal against the Ipswich.
00:02:32
DailySaintsPod
It just seems like a no-brainer to try and sign him. I don't know if that if he will come and play for us if we're still in the championship next season.
Larrant's Scoring Streak and Comparison
00:02:41
DailySaintsPod
And I'm sure that that will be a discussion point potentially as the summer goes on. But I hope that we take that option to buy early doors, get it out of the way, because it just feels like a very sensible piece of business. Speaking of sensible pieces of business potentially coming up in the summer... Just a quick note that I didn't realise from Tuesday's game is that Kyle Larrant has now scored on each of his last five starts for Southampton. And a little reminder that the option to buy for Canadian is reported £3.4 million. pounds
00:03:15
DailySaintsPod
Which again sounds like a no-brainer. He's clearly proving that at this level he can score goals for fun. He is an excellent addition to this team and make an argument that he might be my first choice to start over Ross Stewart. It's definitely in certain games.
00:03:34
DailySaintsPod
But I had a little look back through the stats because I thought, wow. Five goals in five starts. It's probably been a while since we've had a Saints player do that. I can't remember a run of form that good. But, of course, my memory is short because, actually, the last player to do that was this season. It was Finnazas in that five-game run that started at Sheffield Wednesday earlier in season, who also managed five in five starts. So...
Significance of Final Match for Playoffs
00:04:03
DailySaintsPod
just goes to show the the quality that's running through this team at the moment and uh hopefully can bring that all together and push on through the the post-season festivities this uh let's say gonna be some interesting times coming up But right, let's talk about the game this weekend. Of course, final day of the season. So much going on. I know a huge amount of Saints fans heading up to to Preston, especially because you know there was still the tantalising promise of automatics potentially on the horizon in this game.
Squad Rotation and Game Analysis Against Preston
00:04:40
DailySaintsPod
but
00:04:41
DailySaintsPod
But you know now we know that the future is the playoffs. We have that clarity. And it will be interesting to see how much we rotate for this game. I think that's going to be the key key question coming into it, really, is is how much we rotate our squad.
00:05:03
DailySaintsPod
had a little look back at the last time we played Preston North End. Of course, it was Will Steele's last game in charge. It was... a miserable day at St Mary's and it got very toxic very quickly and and then we've still got sacked and we've bought in tonda and the rest is as we say history but I watched back the highlights to try and have a look and see if I could really like pick out what was different. And honestly, the biggest difference you could see was just the energy, mostly at the back, because we had a few chances early on in that game.
00:05:59
DailySaintsPod
Let them through to score. You know, they go on to win the game 2-0. And... Yeah, it was it was at that point where the season looked very different for both sides.
00:06:12
DailySaintsPod
So we, of course, dropped down to our absolute lowest point in the table at that point, I think 21st. Preston at that point in the season were fifth. So, you know, they they were doing bits at that time and and coming together. Now it's a completely different story as we come into this game. Yeah.
00:06:34
DailySaintsPod
And even though I was looking at the lineups, and actually a lot of the a lot of the team that played in that game are still important parts in in the squad currently.
00:06:46
DailySaintsPod
You know, with a few essential changes, but that it's crazy that the changing confidence and the yet a slight tweak to shape to be more comfortable. uh, shoring it up at the back and and having those players come through and, and, and, you know, some of those players come into form. One of those players was Flynn down. So we know struggling with, his illness throughout the start of the season and, you know, seems to have it under control and be getting back to his best.
00:07:13
DailySaintsPod
So it's sort of played a crucial part in that improvement. But just the fascinating dissection.
Preston's Current Form and Struggles
00:07:19
DailySaintsPod
I know we've said it a lot on the show in these games as they've come round where we've played teams a second time and and seen how different it was the first time.
00:07:31
DailySaintsPod
Very different for Preston now. They are 12th in the table. And I mean, no insult by this next statement, but I would describe...
00:07:42
DailySaintsPod
their form and their position as like definitively mid-table. They have won 15, drawn 15, lost 15.
00:07:52
DailySaintsPod
they are 12th in the table. I think the highest they can finish is eleventh I think the lowest they can finish is 13th. It is, you know, almost by definition, the description of on the beach. They have nothing to play for, really, apart from, you know, maybe the sentiment of send the home fans away happy,
00:08:13
DailySaintsPod
which Which, you know, is is not nothing. But they their home form is not great in in recent games. They're most recently at home lost to West Brom 2-0. Drew with QPR Did manage to beat Stoke 3-1. But had a a woeful 3-1 loss to Oxford United. And lost Mill. So,
00:08:38
DailySaintsPod
you know it's not been easy going at home for them. their Their form is one two drawn to,
Strategic Importance of Playoff Positioning
00:08:46
DailySaintsPod
lost to. It is just, yeah, textbook.
00:08:51
DailySaintsPod
A team that should be absolutely on the beach with nothing to play for. And for us, of course, there is there is something to play for,
00:09:01
DailySaintsPod
We know the importance of having a home second leg in the playoffs. It makes a huge amount of difference.
00:09:33
DailySaintsPod
And it's... It's a very tough thing to do, to go and play in that kind of atmosphere, and wherever we we go, is going to have that if it's not St Mary's. So mary so we we have to think about that and push and try and get the win. And, you know, I know we say there's no easy games in this league. There's no games you can expect to win. But everything for me in this, know it feels like it should be as close to a comfortable win as as it really gets.
00:10:08
DailySaintsPod
Just because in theory, we've got that much more to play for, even though what we've got to play for is in... in other results hands, but if we don't win, it's, you know, that's that's on us rather than on other results. And that's not a situation that we want to be putting ourselves into, i don't think. But, you know,
00:10:30
DailySaintsPod
you have to weigh up. We've talked about the importance of that second leg being at home. We've heard Ryan Manning come out in an interview with the club earlier today talking about the the importance of that second leg and you know it potentially being at home and that both the the playoffs that he's played in have had that and and the importance of it. But also, we've played so much football up to this point. We have played so many games in so many days.
00:10:54
DailySaintsPod
And we have to think about freshness. Some players have played... an almost unreasonable amount of minutes within that period of games. So i do expect some rotation, as I think that that will be the key point of interest coming into this game is how much we decide to rotate and who we decide to rotate. Now, I don't think Tonda has the ability to...
00:11:20
DailySaintsPod
to just name a completely different team, a full team of youth, I don't think that he has that as something that he can do. He will want to win this match because he understands the importance of it, but there are definitely some players that we're going to have to think about there.
00:11:39
DailySaintsPod
I'm sure that there's an argument to be made that, of course, there is... almost a week, potentially. It'll be on, potentially, the Friday night or the Saturday. So, a week or six days rest between the games.
Final Day Atmosphere and Player Fitness
00:11:52
DailySaintsPod
And based off of how often we've been playing in the last, what, two months, I guess, since the the international break, that's basically an extended piece of time off. That's almost two weeks, it feels like, in comparison. But...
00:12:08
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, it is something to to pay a thought to. And maybe if if it's not in the starting lineup, maybe it's another way of those games where we try and put it to bed as early as possible in an effort to get those players off the pitch in a way where the game is completely done for and done with. Yeah.
00:12:27
DailySaintsPod
I don't know. It makes for fascinating game. Of course, it's last day of the season as well. Anything can happen on the last day of the season. You can't really predict it. There's too many moving parts, too many mentality challenges, physicality challenges, all of that stuff. I mean, I think back to...
00:12:47
DailySaintsPod
the, not the last time we got relegated from the Premier League, but the time before, where we had that crazy four-all draw with Liverpool on the last day of the season, where Suleymane scored a brace.
00:12:59
DailySaintsPod
And it just goes to show, right, like, anything can happen. There are so many moving parts. It's not even as simple as Preston don't have anything to play for because some of those Preston players will be trying to put in a good performance to boost their opportunity of getting a move in the summer or, you know, putting in a good performance to boost their opportunity of staying at Preston in the summer or, or things like that. You just don't know. You don't know.
00:13:29
DailySaintsPod
how it's going to play out. You can't can't second guess these things. and And especially with an early kickoff on a Saturday, you know, the sun's probably going to be out. It just makes for a It's not going to be one of those intense, hard-to-go-to away days where the...
00:13:47
DailySaintsPod
ground is intimidating. I'm sure that Preston have that in them at times. I just don't think that last day of the season in the sunshine on Saturday afternoon is it, right? it's It would be different vibes to normal because it's last day of the season. It's almost like a party, holiday, festival atmosphere at times. And that that tends to bring a difference to the game as well. So it's a very difficult one to predict, I think.
00:14:13
DailySaintsPod
But I still remain confident that it it should be as close to academic as you will get in the league, I think.
00:14:41
DailySaintsPod
so So no presser means no official team news. Not that you can really take anything you hear at the team news as gospel. but if I was hazard guess, I would say that Stephens will still be out.
00:14:54
DailySaintsPod
If he is back to fitness, maybe he comes on off the bench to get some minutes back into his legs before the playoffs, but we haven't seen or heard from him. We haven't heard any results from the Scads or anything. It's still been such a short turnaround since our last handful of games. I just think... he probably will not be back in.
00:15:18
DailySaintsPod
Wellington, I suspect we won't see either. Manning, at least, didn't play at Wembley for the 90 minutes, of course, because of suspension. So... should be fresh enough to to play another 90 Saturday, you would think, after playing 90 on Tuesday. Of course, Flynn Downs, so it's his final game of his three-match ban, which means, of course, he will be back for the playoffs.
00:15:44
DailySaintsPod
And the other one to think about was Finnazads, who I did notice had his knee quite taped up on Tuesday. and you kind of think... he's going to be such an important part of our team going into the playoffs and the creativity brings. And as already mentioned in the show, right, one of the players this season who scored five goals from five consecutive starts is is winning this game to potentially go off a place in the table and get that home leg important enough to risk not having a Zaz for any of the playoffs. Yeah.
00:16:20
DailySaintsPod
I would think no. I know that he's keen to play every game and Tonda is reluctant to hold him back from that. But just think maybe sitting this one out and saving it for for the two important semifinals, you know, both legs coming up, I think that is what we will potentially see.
00:16:44
DailySaintsPod
But i guess, look, let's get straight to it. Let's go back to front with my full team lineup, as as I do tend to do.
Predicted Lineup and Tactical Considerations
00:16:52
DailySaintsPod
i think, of course, Perret will be in goal. we don't need to think about that too much. And like I said, ryan Manning will will be left back, I would think.
00:17:17
DailySaintsPod
a pretty good game. And after playing, I think, really well on on Saturday at Wembley. So definitely doing more than enough to maintain my confidence in him and him doing the job here and and making it in the team. No concerns from me. i This might be the the one where we see a difference. I potentially think that we should rest James Bree. He has been such an important, crucial part of
00:17:48
DailySaintsPod
of the team since he came back off loan, but he has played so much football. He has played almost every minute because there is just no one else really that we can play in that position when when it matters the most.
00:18:05
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised to see Yalert get start here purely just to give Breen a rest. I know that height and physicality-wise, he's not quite he's definitely not the same profile as Breen. He's not quite the profile that Tondall wants in a full-back.
00:18:22
DailySaintsPod
but we need to give Bria a rest or or isn he is also going to be one of these players that's just not going to be potentially ready to go in the the playoffs. It's just not worth the risk in my eyes. I would rest him for this game and and play Yeller or Kwasi in that position.
00:18:44
DailySaintsPod
you know It's a bit of makeshift and a it bit to do, but also... just is going to be important to keep Bree fit.
00:18:53
DailySaintsPod
Moving up the pitch, obviously Flynn Downs still suspended. don't know if I'm convinced by the combination of Shea Charles and Caspi Amber.
00:19:41
DailySaintsPod
played basically a full 180 in those two games. So, you know, we're going to want that form heading into the playoffs. So potentially it's him, I think, that we rotate out in this case. I think the combination of Shea Charles and Cam Bragg is it's it's still an excellent combination, right? We're blessed in this midfield with...
00:20:04
DailySaintsPod
depth in the position that will come on and do the job. I actually think the combination of Bragg and Charles is probably a slightly better combination to give Shea Charles the freedom to to wander forward like he he does enjoy doing.
00:20:19
DailySaintsPod
I think Bragg is more than happy to sit back and play that kind of sweep up more traditional six-roll, and that complements each other quite well. So that's the combination I expect to see in there.
00:20:34
DailySaintsPod
In front of them, like I said, I would rest Azaz. Matski would be my first choice to come in and play that role instead of Azaz.
00:20:44
DailySaintsPod
If he's fit, obviously I think he was supposed to start on Tuesday, but felt something in his calf, so... Hopefully that's nothing too serious. And if he's fit, we can play him in that position. If it's not Matske, I think I'd be fine with Cameron Archer starting in there.
00:21:00
DailySaintsPod
We've talked at length on this show in the past about how he plays better with a big physical player up front in front of him, and he has that with either of the strikers that we play. So dropping into that 10-roll makes sense. His work rate in his most recent performances has been exceptional.
00:21:18
DailySaintsPod
and I wouldn't be disappointed to see his name on the team sheet in that position. and Hopefully he can have another one of those performances and get another goal and just continue to sort of find his stride as as we've been wanting him to do for so long. Yeah.
00:21:35
DailySaintsPod
But yeah, I would still prefer Matzki, but I would be perfectly content with Archer. On the left, obviously an interesting interesting one. Leo played, again, all of the game at Wembley, all of the game on Tuesday.
Player Roles and Potential Improvements
00:21:53
DailySaintsPod
Obviously, has been a crucial part to a lot of the team this season, dragging them forward and bringing them up.
00:22:01
DailySaintsPod
And we've talked about that and his quality for sure. But I think that if we do see him, it will be off the bench. I think that he is another one of these players that has played a lot of minutes and is going to need refresh refreshing before the playoffs. And I think Sammy Odozie will be perfectly fine slotting into that role.
00:22:25
DailySaintsPod
stepping up and and hopefully doing some more good stuff. We've seen him get involved a bit. We've got one assist at West Brom as well.
00:22:34
DailySaintsPod
yeah I'd be perfectly happy with Sammy stepping in and doing that. On the other side, on the right, obviously, if Matsuki is available, I prefer him in the middle.
00:22:47
DailySaintsPod
If that's the case, I would expect to see Cam Archer on the right, to be honest, because that worked quite well last time. Uh, fellows is a bit of an enigma to me. His center of gravity when he picks up the ball is, it begs belief. Sometimes the ball's kind of loose to his feet and he looks like he's already three quarters of the way down, but manages to keep himself balanced and go. You still fancy him as a favourite to beat the full-back every time he goes to take him on.
00:23:17
DailySaintsPod
And obviously he's got plenty of assists off that ilk where he just gets there and puts the cross in. But I've heard some people say that he's too predictable and you'd like to see him cut inside and and shoot more. And I think that's a valid criticism. I think also he tends to take the ball in a very deep position and make these darting, dribbling runs kind of infield but sideways, which does a good job of sort dragging the fullback who's marking him with him into the middle and creates the space on the the wing for normally Bree to run up and run into and get that pass out.
00:23:58
DailySaintsPod
And that's that's fine and that's good. to to mix into a game. I kind of want to see more of those big darting, dribbling runs in a more direct angle, more towards the goal.
00:24:13
DailySaintsPod
He's very good at doing it sideways and a bit backwards. I would love it if some of those runs were just running straight at the keeper. If he can add that to his game, I think he will be a genuine sensation. You know, he's he's had some excellent moments this season, to be fair, as and some not great ones, as with the entire team. But...
00:24:38
DailySaintsPod
I think all of the pieces are there, just a few few bits coming together and it'll all be good. But he's played a lot of minutes. Played, like I say, full 90 at Man City, full 90...
00:24:51
DailySaintsPod
or nearly a 490 against the Ipswich. it would make sense to rotate him out, and especially if the other players are available. guess if Matski isn't available, we have Cam Archer in that number 10 role. Maybe we do see him start on the right because i don't butt know if there's another option on that side of the pitch.
Striker Rotation Strategy and Match Prediction
00:25:12
DailySaintsPod
But I guess that we will see. Up front, I fully expect Ross Stewart to start. We've been seeing this rotation of Laren will start one, Stewart will start one, Laren will start one, Stewart will start one. kind of works.
00:25:26
DailySaintsPod
Like I said at the top of the episode, that i think Laren is probably my first choice striker between the two. And I think that's true. But they are both strikers that you have to manage the minutes of, I think.
00:25:39
DailySaintsPod
And so... I think that Stewart will start this game and maybe we see Lahren come on as a sub, probably. And I think that means that Lahren will start the at least the first leg of the semi-final, but maybe be the second leg as well. but We will obviously look forward and talk about that more closer to the time. But I think Ross Stewart starts this game. Actually, you know what? would be surprised he gets a goal as well because it just seems to be the way things are going at the moment.
00:26:10
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. Yeah, so that's my team line-up. Look, we've got to remember that we, although feeling disappointed on slightly on missing out on automatics, we're coming into this game on such a hot run.
00:26:21
DailySaintsPod
Yes, we've drawn the last two, but we're still 18 games unbeaten the championship, which is absolutely insane. It's such an incredible run, and I don't think Preston are going be looking forward to playing us by any stretch of the imagination.
00:26:35
DailySaintsPod
so so it should be good sending over to the historic stats six matches on file uh against preston uh one win for them one draw and four wins for us so historically Good numbers for us. Obviously, that win for them coming earlier this season. Prior to that, we beat them in April 2024, had a tour draw with them in in October 2023, and the games before that go back as far as 2011 and 2009. So maybe you can't read a huge amount into them.
00:27:16
DailySaintsPod
The AI summary says that Saints are the clear favorites, although Preston do have a slight home edge.
00:27:24
DailySaintsPod
Expects lots of goals. Likely to deliver goals and are both teams to score scenarios. So your best bet is both teams to score and over two and a half.
00:27:35
DailySaintsPod
So no like direct goal prediction or or team win prediction in there, which is pretty nuts. But as we know, what computers know anyway?
00:27:47
DailySaintsPod
Look, coming from a guy who has had one correct score prediction in the whole two seasons where we've been doing this show. But let's get to that then. Let's get to my score prediction. What do I think is going to happen? Well, this is something that i have genuinely not thought about until up at this moment. So what i've done is put myself on the spot. Rather silly of me, to be honest. But
Game Strategy and Historical Context
00:28:11
DailySaintsPod
let's see. What do I think? I think 3-1 3-1 Saints.
00:28:16
DailySaintsPod
I think they'll probably get gold. because i just think it's going to be one of those kind of days with that kind of party, festival, end of season atmosphere.
00:28:26
DailySaintsPod
But I think we'll put it to bed, and we will put it to bed probably pretty early. Yeah, three goals. What do I think? I think Ross Stewart with a brace, and let's have a Cam Archer goal in there as well, just for good measure. Yeah, 3-1. All three of our goals come in in the first half. I don't know where their goal comes. Maybe in the middle of them.
00:28:48
DailySaintsPod
put the game to bed, get some heavy rotation in and come back with fresh legs into the semi-finals whenever and wherever that may be, watching watching the other games. I won't be one of the fans travelling up to Preston for this one, unfortunately, but I will be... Well, I think I'll be multi-screening it, to be honest. It's going to be the game that has my main attention for sure, but definitely going to be watching Millwall, Ipswich and Middlesbrough on different devices. I'm sure that my wife is going to love five screens of football, as I'm sure I'll pick a different game as well to have on in the background.
00:29:55
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, definitely one of the perks is is doing that and sitting and watching all of the other things happening at the same time. And like I said yesterday, I'm pretty sure that by the end of the 90 minutes come quarter past two on Saturday afternoon,
00:30:13
DailySaintsPod
we will We will have been third, fourth and fifth multiple times as all of the things change and the scores fluctuate. and the you know Hopefully we end up do enough to end up in one of those third or
Conclusion and Listener Engagement
00:30:28
DailySaintsPod
fourth spots. But the most important thing is get the win so that so that it matters and so that it counts.
00:30:38
DailySaintsPod
But that's it. That is all that I have got time for today. So thank you so much, everyone, for listening to me and joining me for this big match preview. Let me know in the comments on the socials your score predictions, how you think this game is going to play out, and where you think we are going to finish in the table. I would love to hear them all.
00:30:59
DailySaintsPod
I'm DailySaintsPod everywhere. X, Blue Sky, TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube. Hit me up. Let me know. I love hearing from you. It drives and motivates me to to do this every day. And i really love all the engagement. And a big shout out to all of the Ipswich fans that got very upset with my criticism of the referee on Tuesday. Appreciate all of the engagement. Thank you so much. Look, however the game plays out,
00:31:30
DailySaintsPod
However it all shakes out, Zach and I will both be back to talk about what happens and break it down with a big match review after the game.
00:31:41
DailySaintsPod
But until then, everyone, I hope the sun shines. I hope wherever you're watching the game, be it press them be at be it home, be it in any local establishment showing it, that you have a wonderful weekend. I hope you enjoy it. I hope that it all goes well.
00:32:03
DailySaintsPod
But most importantly, come on, you saints!