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Episode 430: THE FINAL DAY and what it looks like! (Also Will Still)
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Southampton – I've taken this episode to look at the absolute insanity that is the top of the Championship table. The final day is crucial and with so many moving parts, it's going to be a lot to be on top of, so I've done my best to simplify the outcomes as best I can, and look forward to what we can expect in the post season!
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Transcript
Introduction and Overview
00:00:13
DailySaintsPod
Hello and welcome back to the Daily Saints pod. My name is Greg once again today flying solo while Zach is off enjoying himself on holiday. But look it's okay I have got lots to talk about as always.
Final Day Permutations and Matchups
00:00:30
DailySaintsPod
Today I'm gonna look ahead to the final day of the season and maybe a little bit beyond now that we have confirmed playoffs we can no longer achieve automatics
00:00:45
DailySaintsPod
I'm going to take a look at the different permutations and how it can all finish come the end of the final day of the regular season because there are, it turns out, a lot of moving parts. Obviously, tomorrow i will have the opportunity to sit and do a full match preview ahead of our game at Preston to think about it from our perspective. But...
00:01:13
DailySaintsPod
I thought I would take a look at the table, take a look at the games, take a look at the way things may or may not fall, and what that means for the playoffs, and the details that come off the back of that. So, let's get straight into it.
00:01:30
DailySaintsPod
Obviously, all of the games, 12.30 kickoffs this Saturday so that you know as many of them can be shown on TV as possible. The interesting thing to note is, of course, because we have had these two draws, one last Tuesday and one Against Dipswitch, unfortunately, it's basically completely out of our hands because even if we win the game on Saturday, there's still a possibility of us finishing fifth. We are fully reliant on on other teams' results to establish where we end up.
Current Standings and Potential Outcomes
00:02:07
DailySaintsPod
So currently we sit fifth in the table on a point total of 77. And above us, the two places that we will be keeping keen eyes on for for the last day of the season.
00:02:26
DailySaintsPod
Middlesbrough on 79 points and Millwall on 80 points. So what does this mean? Well, obviously, it means that if we lose or draw, we finish fifth because below us in sixth is currently Wrexham on 70 points. Obviously, can't make seven points in a game.
00:02:49
DailySaintsPod
So fifth is the lowest we can finish. And if we don't win, that is where we finish, fifth. but in the event that we do win, there might be moving parts above us. So let's take a look at that. So like I said, we are on 77 mills. We're on 79 mill wall are on 80 points. So if we win, of course we got 80 points.
00:03:14
DailySaintsPod
And there is a series of events that could happen to get us finishing as high in the table as third. That involves Millwall losing, most importantly. We go level on points with Millwall if we win and they lose. Our goal difference is already 11 goals better than theirs. And of course, by the nature of them them losing and ours winning, theirs will go down. Ours will go up So in that scenario, when Millwall lose and we win, we finish above Millwall.
00:03:47
DailySaintsPod
The other team, Middlesbrough, of course, on 79 points. If they draw, they also go to 80 points. Their goal difference is currently 25.
00:03:59
DailySaintsPod
So if we win, we will go above them. Because if we win, our goal difference will increase. Our goal difference is currently 24. So even if we win by one goal, we go joint on goal difference with them to 25, assuming they draw. So their goal difference doesn't change, which means that goes to goals four and we have scored nine more goals than
Strategy and Upcoming Matches
00:04:22
DailySaintsPod
them. So there is a real possibility at the end of the championship season that third, fourth and fifth all finish on a total of 80 points and difference between them will go down to goal scored or goal difference, which is...
00:04:41
DailySaintsPod
nuts So in that scenario where we're all on 80 points, we come out on top because we have to win to do it. So of our goal difference will go up. Basically, we will have the best goal difference. We've got the the most goals scored. and So in that scenario, we come out third.
00:04:58
DailySaintsPod
So what what what about the games, right? So yeah very simple. If Middlesbrough draw or lose and we win, we go above them. If Millwall lose and we win, we go above them.
00:05:08
DailySaintsPod
And and you know any permutations thereof, obviously. If... if Middlesbrough draw or lose and we win, but Millwall get a point, we finish fourth above Middlesbrough. If Millwall lose, we win, but Middlesbrough win, we finish fourth above Millwall. So, you know, all of these things can happen. So third, of course, the least likely outcome based off of that, because that relies on the two other results going our way and on us winning, which
00:05:43
DailySaintsPod
It's just, it's probably the least likely outcome. So so what about the games? what's What's going on last day of the season? Obviously, we are away to Preston,
00:05:52
DailySaintsPod
which which, you know, isn't going to be an easy game by any stretch of the imagination, not one that we can necessarily look past if we are interested. i did allude yesterday to the fact that maybe there would be some benefit in...
00:06:07
DailySaintsPod
resting players instead of taking the game that seriously. But I don't know. The prospect of being able to finish as high as third is is advantageous because you get to play, you know, the team that finishes lower in the table. You get that away leg at home.
00:06:26
DailySaintsPod
And it's it's it's possible. So, but, but so, Millwall have arguably the easiest draw. They are playing already relegated Oxford United at home.
00:06:40
DailySaintsPod
And that is a game that, you would expect them to win if we are being honest, right? they They should be putting it past Oxford. I know that crazy things happen, and especially with teams are really relegated, you know, they play with a bit more freedom and the pressure's off, but... But at the end of the day, the the den is not an easy place to go at the best of times. And when Millwall need to get something out of the game to secure the best possible position for playoffs they can, it's not going to be a pleasant day for Oxford, I don't think.
00:07:18
DailySaintsPod
So, you know, a wouldn't count on them dropping points, let's put it that way. But it's championship, anything can happen. So we have to talk about these potentials and and what may or may not happen. Middlesbrough have arguably the toughest draw of the three of us. They are go away to the racecourse, to Wrexham, who are, of course, playing to secure
Playoff Contenders and Scenarios
00:07:47
DailySaintsPod
their own place in the playoffs. And we'll get into the the battle below us in a minute, but...
00:07:52
DailySaintsPod
It's be a very tough game for Middlesbrough, who in in their recent form are coming back. They've won their last two, but prior to that, it's spotty at best. And with their place in the playoffs confirmed, and Wrexham's not, you know, that that's a thing to take into consideration of something that...
00:08:17
DailySaintsPod
that might become a potential difference maker. You know that the atmosphere at Wrexham is going to be good. Their home form is effectively what got them back-to-back promotions in the first place, to be even in the position that they are in.
00:08:33
DailySaintsPod
So it's not going to be an easy day. for for Middlesbrough. They have got a job to do and it is going to be tricky.
00:08:47
DailySaintsPod
It's going to be a tough, interesting game. And probably, to be honest, out of the three, the pick of the games to watch because it promises to at least be entertaining.
00:09:00
DailySaintsPod
So, yeah, that's that's who they're playing. and That's how it all potentially shakes out. Obviously, based off of that, most likely to finish either fourth or fifth. Obviously, if Middlesbrough lose to Wrexham and we win, we go above them to fourth.
00:09:21
DailySaintsPod
And if they win, they stay in fourth and we stay in fifth. Which means that in the playoffs, our most likely opponent is is probably Middlesbrough.
00:09:31
DailySaintsPod
So that's the one to bear in mind. But what about below us? What about if things do go our way and we finish in that a coveted third spot?
00:09:44
DailySaintsPod
what What happens then? Who will we face? Well, the battle for sixth is almost as fascinating as the battle for third. So three teams can still finish in that sixth place spot.
00:09:58
DailySaintsPod
Wrexham are currently sat in that... that spot in the table, but only through goal difference. So they are level on points with Hull at 70 Wrexham have a goal difference of four.
00:10:15
DailySaintsPod
Hull have a goal difference of three. It couldn't be tighter Hull, of course, in form, seems to have dropped off a cliff, are struggling. Coming in with a head of steam, one point behind, are Derby on 69 points, with a goal difference of 9. So, a better goal difference than both of those teams above them.
00:10:38
DailySaintsPod
And so, with the games they've got coming up at the weekend, which is...
00:10:46
DailySaintsPod
yeah is Hull play Norwich at Hull, and Derby play Sheffield United. So not not easy games by any stretch of the imagination. No guaranteed outcomes amongst that lot, for sure.
00:11:02
DailySaintsPod
And you know that those teams are going to rock up trying to ruin ruined the party. So depending on how that plays out, there is a potential outcome, which is the the kind of craziest outcome of it here, which is if Holland-Wrexham lose and Derby get a draw, Derby go into the playoffs on goal difference, where all three teams finish on 70 points. which is insane. It's really nuts.
00:11:36
DailySaintsPod
Of course, if Wrexham or Hull win, by the benefit of being a point up on Derby, Derby cannot catch them. If Wrexham and Hull win, it could go down to goal difference. If they both win, if it will go down to goal difference. Wrexham currently have a one-goal edge, but as the the games play out, if Wrexham win 1-0 and Hull win 2-0,
00:12:00
DailySaintsPod
Hull will get that sixth spot with joint goal difference, but they will have scored one more goal than Wrexham in the league.
00:12:11
DailySaintsPod
So
00:12:12
DailySaintsPod
We're talking about such wafer-thin fine margins fine margins. It can go down to, the smallest possible metric. And those games are again, they're going be games to watch closely, as well, because you know, if, if the results play out, we will end up playing whoever comes out on top in that battle and in that fight.
00:12:37
DailySaintsPod
who Who would we rather play in the playoffs? Well, that is a question in itself. I don't know, to be honest.
00:12:46
DailySaintsPod
I don't know if there's an advantage or disadvantage to play in any of these teams. Obviously, we struggled against Millwall this season. It's... Yeah, a Wrexham... you get the the whole other stuff that comes with it with all of the following they'll bring and the, the, the games we've got, obviously Middlesbrough had that horrible game where they absolutely smashed us in January. Let's not forget that.
00:13:13
DailySaintsPod
But we're we're a different team now than we were then. I don't know if we can focus too much on that. do we Do we really want to... for Who out of the group do you want to face? I would say probably Middlesbrough, which is good because that is the most likely outcome.
Playoff Schedule and Preparations
00:13:28
DailySaintsPod
But it would be nice to get that second leg at home. So, don't know, we'll see. We'll see how it plays out.
00:13:36
DailySaintsPod
It's going to be an absolutely classic last day of the championship season. So many variables. I'm sure that between half 12 and the games finishing... All six of the teams that you know potentially can fall in these spots will have probably been in all of the spots they can be in at various points throughout the game. All of the different permutations are likely to be rapidly moving.
00:14:05
DailySaintsPod
It's going to be great. I'm very excited. i cannot wait to see where the cards fall, see how everyone gets on, and just to find out who we're playing in the playoffs and when. So looking at when...
00:14:22
DailySaintsPod
If we finish fourth or fifth, which, as discussed, is the the most likely outcome, probably, the first leg will be May the 9th, which is a Saturday with a 12.30 kickoff. So if we finish fifth, that will be at St Mary's. If we finish fourth, that will be the away leg. If we do manage to get up to third, the first leg will, of course, be away. and That will be on the Friday night on an 8pm kickoff the the night before that.
00:14:55
DailySaintsPod
that first leg for the other game. So that's one to keep an eye on. Second leg is, is dust and there's no rest. It's a very quick turnaround for the semifinals this year. and So the the first legs are on the Friday and the Saturday. the second legs are on the Monday and the Tuesday. So if we come fourth or fifth, the second leg will be Tuesday 12th 8
00:15:20
DailySaintsPod
So, of course, naturally, if we finish fifth, that will be the away leg. And if we finish fourth, that will be our tie at St. Mary's. And in in the chance we get third, of course, we play on the Monday night at 8pm at St. Mary's. So...
00:15:37
DailySaintsPod
Quick turnaround from the playoffs semifinals. I mean, does that in itself benefit us? Because we have been playing Saturday, Tuesday every week up until this point. So that won't be, you know, that will be common ground to us. It's what we're used to.
00:15:55
DailySaintsPod
It's interesting to me that that turnaround is so quick and that wasn't what it was for the playoffs in in the the last time when we went up. You know, we played one game on the the Saturday and then it was on the Friday night at St Mary's. it was It was not as close or compact, I don't think, anyway. But...
00:16:17
DailySaintsPod
There we go that's That's the playoffs. That's what's going to happen. if If you see if we win across those two legs, we go on to the final at Wembley, which will be on the twenty third of May.
00:16:31
DailySaintsPod
But we can't look that far ahead. you know We know Tonda's mentality. We know the approach of the team. It'll be one game at a time. Whether we... you know We'll be putting a team out to beat Preston. Let's not beat around the bush. Whether that is still rotated to try and get some...
00:16:50
DailySaintsPod
some life back into legs that are going to be hugely important in the playoffs, such as James Bree is the example that jumps to mind. Maybe Leo doesn't start this one, but we'll see. But you know what? We'll talk about that more in depth in the...
00:17:08
DailySaintsPod
pre-match tomorrow. One last thing I wanted to talk about before I go off the air, and I'm sure that we will talk about this more in the future, and it's definitely what I'd like to talk to Zach about, is an interview I saw today.
Interview Reflection and Team Insights
00:17:24
DailySaintsPod
from the Overlap Breakdown YouTube channel. They sat down and had an interview with Will Still, and I watched it because, of course, we were mentioned, and it was fascinating.
00:17:37
DailySaintsPod
He had a whole sort of section of the episode talking about his time at Saints. Very reflective, very self-aware, I thought he came across as, which was was great. He he had... the I think he presented himself very well in the interview and had some nice things to say about Saints as well. Says he is glad that we're succeeding in the way that we are.
00:18:03
DailySaintsPod
and let A lot of the things that he said resonate and click with exactly what we were saying on the show at the time. It was close, but not quite coming together, not quite clicking. He feels like he did some things wrong and would maybe do different things given the chance again, but that he was not quite prepared or experienced. He didn't quite have enough to pick it up. He struggled a lot more with the transition into England than he thought you would, said the the clip I saw that alerted me to the interview as he felt like a foreigner coming in because the whole culture was so alien to him compared to his time in the French and in the Belgian leagues. Yeah.
00:18:47
DailySaintsPod
Which, you know, it's fair enough. It's the sort of thing that that does make a difference, right? We talked about how clear the difference has been with the personality of Tonda. It's not necessarily down to Will Steele's personality. If he's struggling to transition, that's going to come across. Yeah.
00:19:06
DailySaintsPod
And that, you know, maybe is is part of the problem. He said he struggled with the bloated squad, which was right. And to be honest, you know, we've looked so much better since January, since we dealt with a lot of the problems that he he raised in the interview. Yeah.
00:19:21
DailySaintsPod
but But my short opinion on it, as I'm sure we cover in much greater detail in the postseason or or after the playoffs probably, is that sometimes you know just making the change like second the second manager is kind of the catalyst to make the things click and bring it together, whether the manager was actually the problem or not.
00:19:45
DailySaintsPod
and and And I still think that Will Steele is going to go on and be a really successful manager somewhere. It just wasn't the...
00:19:56
DailySaintsPod
I don't even think it was necessarily the wrong fit. I just don't think it was the right time for him. It was is a lot of work, and especially to turn around the the mentality and you know issues in the changing room from such a horrendous season last season. that That was no easy feat, and definitely not if you're kind of transitioning and struggling to transition into the English game. Not something that I think you could possibly be expected to handle.
00:20:24
DailySaintsPod
especially he mentioned, obviously he didn't bring any of his own coaching staff with him, and but was was able to work alongside Adam Lallana and Paul Trollope had nothing but good things to say about them. But that's just a whole whole other thing that he'd have to adjust and adapt to, right? So... maybe it's not just the, the manager change that's kicked us onto this success. Maybe some of the other stuff behind the scenes that we don't see has also sort of tightened up and become, uh, more beneficial and more helpful. And, uh, yeah, definitely just a place of, in my opinion, of of wrong place, or wrong time for Will Steele. But,
00:21:03
DailySaintsPod
Like I say, I think he came across very well in the interview. I think he'll go on to have huge success.
Managerial Impact and Season's End
00:21:08
DailySaintsPod
And I hope he does because I did like Will and I really want him to succeed here. But...
00:21:15
DailySaintsPod
You know, you can't criticise the change when it has bought the results. It has... that That shows it's a success. It's not fair to just chalk that up to Tonda record over Will Still, though. There's a lot of other moving parts.
00:21:31
DailySaintsPod
I'm still glad we have Tonda, for sure. But Will will be all right, I think. Yeah. But yeah, that was really good talk, though. good Great interview. Definitely worth a listen because he touched on some really interesting stuff. All of the stuff from his time in France was absolutely fascinating as well. Clearly a very knowledgeable person when it comes to football. Very enjoyable to listen to. So so go and give it a listen. But that is all I've got time for today. i hope that you have enjoyed my well little breakdown of what the final day could mean for us and how the playoffs may sort of shape our
00:22:13
DailySaintsPod
Like I say, lots of moving parts. No certainties heading into the last day of the season. Anything can and will happen in true dramatic championship football. That is why it is the best league in the world and why we love it so much.
00:22:31
DailySaintsPod
But until I'm back with the match preview tomorrow, everyone, Let me know how excited you are for the last game of the season or how excited you are for playoffs. Do you have a team that you would rather play in the playoffs?
00:22:45
DailySaintsPod
Or even if you want to look one step further, who do you want in semifinals? Who do you want at Wembley? Because it's a lot of mixes in there that make for some interesting stories that have been weaved as the season goes on for sure. But let us know. We are Daily Saints Pod everywhere on all of the social media. X, Blue Sky, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, everywhere. Hit us up and let me know. i will greatly look forward to reading through all of your thoughts and comments. I really appreciate it. And it goes such a long way to help us out. And while you're there, why not give us a follow or a subscribe or a like, whatever platform you're on all of those things, because it really helps us out. And I see all of it, and it it it makes me feel nice and warm inside. Thank you, everyone, for listening. Until tomorrow's big preview, though, have a wonderful day. and i will see you then.