Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
Episode 428: Matchday Preview: LAST GAME AT HOME AGAINST IPSWICH
0 Playsin 10 hours
Southampton – No time to let the weekend sink in, straight back into action, and in what isn't an exageration to describe as potentially our biggest game of the season now. It all boils down to this. Can we kick on and get another win to set up one of the craziest final days in Championship history?
Follow us on social media:
Linktree - https://linktr.ee/dailysouthamptonpod
X - https://x.com/DailySaintsPod
TikTok – https://www.tiktok.com/@dailysaintspod
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/@DailySaintsPod
Instagram – https://www.instagtam.com/dailysaintspod
Bluesky - https://bsky.app/profile/gspnsouthampton.bsky.social
Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61572875812052
Our Sponsors
For advertising and sponsorship details or to learn more about the scale and demographics of our audience – email us - dailysaintspod@gmail.com
Copyright | 2026 | Daily Saints Pod | All Rights Reserved
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction and Host Absence
00:00:12
DailySaintsPod
Hello and welcome back to the Daily Saints pod. My name is Greg and unfortunately today not joined by Zach as I won't be all week as he rather rudely has gone off on holiday to enjoy himself with his family. But that's okay.
00:00:29
DailySaintsPod
I've got your Saints coverage sorted.
Championship Match Importance
00:00:31
DailySaintsPod
A huge gain in the championship tonight as we try and calm ourselves down, try and settle, try and refocus after a crazy weekend and get back to the job at hand and work on securing promotion to the Premier League.
00:00:52
DailySaintsPod
artist that That is the biggest concern coming into a very big game, isn't it? Is there going to be a hangover from Wembley?
00:01:02
DailySaintsPod
you know Did we put too much into the game and in producing that? sensational performance that we did are we going to have enough left in the tank to push on and close out the season in the way that we need to to to secure promotion you know we talked on the show plenty about the financial impact of not going up so so it's massive it's huge and and you know lots of
00:01:33
DailySaintsPod
important games. This is
Significance of Last Home Fixture
00:01:35
DailySaintsPod
it. We're down to the crunch, right? Two games left. This is our last home game of the regular season. You know, with potential to be another home fixture in the playoffs.
00:01:49
DailySaintsPod
But... not ruling out automatics just yet. I'll get into some of the numbers of, of why that is, but you know, most likely to be clear, an additional game at home in the playoffs. Hopefully the second leg is what we're, we're looking for, right? This is what we need to do.
00:02:10
DailySaintsPod
huge game though, huge, huge mentality, shift, huge, important to keep that focus and hope that the preparation is, is there has been key.
00:02:23
DailySaintsPod
and to to take that into account, like, it's which are a very good team. It's which are where they are in the table, you know, with the points advantage on us that they have, because they are a good team who are going to be difficult
Game Stakes and Promotion Prospects
00:02:36
DailySaintsPod
to beat. And, uh,
00:02:38
DailySaintsPod
you know They had their own kind of big game at the weekend, I suppose, but not quite on the same scale to the same magnitude. and and Hopefully, we can just bounce back from that. you know we We had concerns before about after the Fulham game on the Tuesday night, how we you know we struggled to get up for it. and And last week on Tuesday against Bristol, we... don't know if it was the thought of the big occasion coming up or or just tiredness because we've played so many games in such a short space of time. But it was beginning to show. The fatigue was was setting in. So, yes that's that's the hope, the concern. Obviously, the...
00:03:21
DailySaintsPod
you know the saving grace of the form and the run that we've been on, is that we are confirmed to finish at least fifth in in the table. So guaranteed playoffs.
00:03:34
DailySaintsPod
Obviously, ideally we'll finish second, preferably third or fourth, so we get that second leg at home, but... Yeah, it's this is the the the craziness of the league. it's We've immediately got to go again. it got to shape up and play you know top of the table. it's It's a really important game and we need to remember that.
00:03:55
DailySaintsPod
And look, I think the atmosphere
Fan Support and Team Performance
00:03:57
DailySaintsPod
at St. Mary's is going to be probably the hottest Tuesday night we've seen in a little while. think the...
00:04:06
DailySaintsPod
There's going to be a huge amount of appreciation for for what the team did and the performance they gave on Saturday and how proud we all are of them and of that performance.
00:04:20
DailySaintsPod
So hopefully that can help push them on and get them in the in the right headspace to do it. And... Yeah, let's just beat them and lead into to one of the craziest final days of the season.
00:04:36
DailySaintsPod
Because, look, I'm going to talk a little bit here about the maths and about how it all plays out with the what-ifs. But honestly, it's such a fascinating set of circumstances that could come into play really regardless of how this game plays out. But especially if we win by a a narrow edge.
00:04:56
DailySaintsPod
that I might do a whole episode on it later in the week before the final day because it's crazy. we you know There are four teams vying it out who can all still finish second, you know all guaranteed to finish at least fifth.
League Competition and Playoff Scenarios
00:05:26
DailySaintsPod
the most likely of the outcomes, yeah anticipating that we win this game by a narrow edge, that takes us up to 79 points. So then the table as it sits with one game to go would be Ipswich and Millwall both on 80 points and us and Middlesbrough both on 79 points. If...
00:05:45
DailySaintsPod
if there is only one goal in it, Oz and Middlesbrough goal difference are identical. There would be 25 goals, which is just just insane, really, isn't it? That is...
00:06:02
DailySaintsPod
That's crazy he how tight it's going to go down to. So actually, you know, goal difference could genuinely be the difference between fourth and fifth, which would be the difference between playing the first leg of the playoffs at home and the second leg of the playoffs at home. And we know, you know, we know from the last time we did it in the playoffs, that that game away at West Brom was...
00:06:26
DailySaintsPod
was KG and both teams just trying to keep themselves in it. I don't think that that would be our approach this time round with Tonda.
Pre-Game Atmosphere at St. Mary's
00:06:37
DailySaintsPod
I don't think that's how he approaches any game ever, honestly.
00:06:42
DailySaintsPod
But it's much better after a game like that to to have the home edge and let the atmosphere build. Because with how good this latter part of the season has been for Saints, I genuinely feel like if we get that second leg at home,
00:07:00
DailySaintsPod
it'll be an atmosphere that will surpass even that that night at St. Mary's against West Brom, which is not something I ever really thought would be possible when I experienced it because it was ridiculous. You you felt the atmosphere build through the entire week into the build-up to the game. You could feel it in the air, literally. It's not even like an expression. I mean, I could genuinely feel...
00:07:28
DailySaintsPod
the atmosphere of the game building in the air for the entire week. And as soon as I parked up the car and started walking towards the ground, I just heard the rumble and you felt the energy
00:07:44
DailySaintsPod
shuffling through the concourse to get to my seat you you feel the vibes you hear the noise uh from underneath the stadium and and and you know this was before the fan zones and stuff so you know it was, it was electric in a way that's incredibly hard to describe unless you genuinely felt it.
00:08:08
DailySaintsPod
Uh, and, and I believe that this time could be even more, more insane. so it's worth fighting for. It's worth pushing on those.
00:08:18
DailySaintsPod
Those the things, right? So the goal difference could come into play against Middlesbrough, who we are kind of bang on, on the money with, but, Goal difference only comes into play with Ipswich or Millwall if we draw and one or both of those lose.
00:08:38
DailySaintsPod
Obviously, if we draw on that last day of the season, we won't be improving our goal difference. and you know You wouldn't expect either of those teams to lose heavily enough to swing swing the goal difference in either direction. So as it is, Ipswich have, or will have, based on the scenario of us winning by one goal tonight, a four point a four goal difference lead over us and Millwall were 12 goals behind. And so if you're thinking about that as one of the potentials, maybe it does become more important that we need to, you know, put that turnover in tonight and, and score as many as we can against Ipswich to, to turn all of those goal differences in our favor.
Future Episode Teasers
00:09:20
DailySaintsPod
But
00:09:22
DailySaintsPod
It's crazy. There are too many crazy permutations to speak about and consider. And like I say, I'll probably do a whole episode on on all of the permutations and what the most likely outcome is and who I want it to be and what I actually foresee happening. Because it's going to be what my brain's doing.
00:09:41
DailySaintsPod
So I might as well talk about it. But look, keeping the focus on tonight... It's huge game and it's a big decision for Tonda on, you know, we've seen some team Saturday, some team Tuesday. Sometimes we heavily rotate, sometimes we're not so much.
00:10:02
DailySaintsPod
Are we going to see much rotation in the team tonight? I don't know. It's a tricky one. Obviously, we haven't had a press conference post-Wembley. The press conference that the club put out was recorded at the same time as the pre-match for Man City. So, you know, you effectively get nothing. you don't get any of the context or any of the team updates, any of the team news.
00:10:26
DailySaintsPod
What we do know solidly is that Flynn Downs is suspended for this game and for the game on Saturday. ryan Manning, after serving his suspension in the Cup for the semifinal, will of course be back and available to be picked, which is probably good considering Wellington kind of limped off from Wembley. steven's unlikely in my mind to to make the team sheet i mean is he's been out with this calf injury that we don't know a lot about and i guess it is possible that it was just a light a light strain and they're just being cautious but
00:11:07
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, i personally would not expect to see him back this game from that maybe the weekend. But I guess we will see and we will learn as we hear more from the players, from the manager, we sort of build up to the game. I'm sure that these things that we will will find out. As far as a predicted lineup and what I think that might look like, I am expecting...
00:11:34
DailySaintsPod
some rotation from, from the Wembley team. that I think that obviously Manning comes back in. it's like to just, I don't think that that is, is a question for me, even if Wellington is fit after limping off, uh, Manning just brings so much to the game. And with, you know, having rested on Saturday, it's, he'll be potentially key to be honest.
00:12:00
DailySaintsPod
Obviously, Peretz in goal, I think played very well at Wembley. Hard to keep the focus and make some of the saves he did make, even though a couple of them were were then later ruled offside. Definitely not fault for either of the goals. You know, an unlucky deflection on the first goal. that He was never going to get anywhere near after that. and no keeper in the world is stopping the second strike. It was it was just a sensational wonder goal.
00:12:28
DailySaintsPod
Like I said in the in the match review, genuinely seeing people talking about it as a puss gas contender. It was just such a sweet strike. Not Parets' fault, even a little bit, to be honest, but...
00:12:44
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, it's going to be interesting how that lines
Key Players and Team Rotations
00:12:49
DailySaintsPod
up. Here, Peretz, Bree starting for me. Obviously, he's such an important part of the team.
00:12:56
DailySaintsPod
So he's going to be in the lineup because of how important he is. He's probably not going to get a rest now until... you know, until the end of the playoffs or or or any of that. But I guess if we go three or four up, maybe you rotate him off because there's not really anyone that you want playing in that position when the stakes of the game are still on the line are important because cause what it does, what it brings to the team... you know, he's one of the key factors that really shows us up at the back. and, and yeah, just no bad words to say about Bree. Just the, one of the crazy things thinking about how on earth we managed to let him go on loan at the start of the season, but that will be, that'll be one that we will undoubtedly talk about, in the season post-mortem for sure.
00:13:42
DailySaintsPod
Harwood Bellis and Wood. Yeah, i don't think Stevens will come back in, so that seems like the the obvious choice. Harwood Bellis stepping up and leading the team out as captain and putting in a captain's performance at Wembley. We'll take that as motivation to kick on and I'm sure we'll be fired up by St. Mary's crowd on a Tuesday night. And Wood, look, he was slowly getting up to speed last week, but as we've discussed and has been discussed at length, it's a very hard thing to do to step in at the last minute, especially as a centre-back and a defender.
00:14:21
DailySaintsPod
You know, even if you've been involved in the you know the pre-match preparation for the game from the you know like analysis and tactics perspective, and even if you know...
00:14:34
DailySaintsPod
what you will need to do on the pitch to get yourself physically and mentally ready in that short of a space of time, you know, 15, 20 minutes. It's not easy. And so, he can i in my opinion, he can be forgiven for a slow start and did grow into the game and look a lot more comfortable as the game went on.
00:14:55
DailySaintsPod
Just Bristol were really good, really came at us. And he i think he had a good game at Wembley as well. So yeah, stick with it.
00:15:04
DailySaintsPod
They're hopefully taking huge amounts of confidence out of that performance and not too tired from it. Could we potentially see Quasi rotate in because of the sort of sheer amount of effort that was put in on Saturday?
00:15:18
DailySaintsPod
Possibly. i wouldn't wouldn't be entirely surprised if that's a rotation we see. Look, we've talked about on the show time time again.
00:15:28
DailySaintsPod
Tonda has earned the right for us to trust any anybody he puts on the team sheet. And if he feels that rotating quasi in is what we need for the game,
00:15:38
DailySaintsPod
then I have the full faith that Kwasi will perform in that that space. think it would be forward. I think Harwood-Bennis will play regardless. But that's that's how I see the back line lining up.
00:15:52
DailySaintsPod
In the middle, obviously, with Flynn down suspended, Caspianda had a sensational game at Wembley, and it would be... I think it would be crazy to rotate it out for this, I just think, unless he is completely spent after after putting in that performance...
Midfield Lineup and Team Depth
00:16:13
DailySaintsPod
I think that the obvious starting lineup for me is is probably the same as it was at Wembley. Kasper and Cam Bragg. Bragg, again, he looked leggy at parts towards towards his him coming off, but he stepped up into an important game as a quality part of that midfield. And, you you know, Shea Charles didn't have his his best game at Wembley, I've heard some people say, but but just the fact you're able to bring a player of Shea Charles' quality on off the bench and what he will be able to do in that scenario...
00:16:43
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, that's that's pretty exciting. So that's how I would choose. But again, we've talked about this position so many much in the last few weeks. It's a position we are blessed to have strength in, less so with down suspended, true. But whoever is named on the team sheet that's played here is not a name that any of us are going to be unhappy with. So... The position that brings us great confidence and what and and really illustrates how lucky we are to be enjoying the team as it is at the moment.
00:17:14
DailySaintsPod
The forward line is where I expect us to be slightly more rotated. I expect Laren come in. We've seen Stewart start, Laren start, Stewart start, Laren start. That seems to be the pattern, and I'm here for it.
00:17:27
DailySaintsPod
I think Laren brings physical presence. We talked about kind of the similarities and differences between Stewart and Laren. They are both a goal-scoring threat, and that in itself is fantastic.
00:17:40
DailySaintsPod
And, yeah, I think Laren will start. I think that we will see Matski on the right. because it just feels like the the sensible thing to do. He also had a, an excellent performance coming on at Wembley. So it's tough one on that right-hand side as to whether I think overall you would consider Tom fellows or Matski, the starting right winger.
00:18:05
DailySaintsPod
I really don't know which one you pick ahead of the other. And I'm sure it's situation dependent, but I kind of feel like Matzki's pushing, at the very least, pushing fellows out of that role. And I would not be surprised to see him start.
00:18:21
DailySaintsPod
I'd expect Azaz to play through the middle. He's got to be flying maximum confidence after that goal at Wembley. Just an excellent finish. And yeah, we'll be bringing that into the game. And on the left, if Leo's fit, he'll start.
00:18:37
DailySaintsPod
I think this is the game that we'll play him in. And maybe we think about resting him at the weekend and and bringing him off the bench then. But I think he starts tonight. And maybe we see a dozy come on off the bench or Archer. I don't know. We'll see. Again, blessed with with levels of depth in different areas that can do jobs in in different ways as well. A good position to be in as a team.
Player Impact Post-Performance
00:19:16
DailySaintsPod
a not zero impact from from playing the way we played at Wembley. It was and a a physically and emotionally exhausting occasion, I would imagine. And, you know, I fully believe in the mentality of the squad and their ability to get their mentality back on track.
00:19:33
DailySaintsPod
for the game. I think they've earned that since we criticised mentality across the board and the squad earlier in season. And I think quite rightly so. But they have earned credit the that I believe they are won't mentally be hurting too much. But but there will still be some some physical signs. I wouldn't be surprised if we see earlier substitutions than we normally do on the back of that.
00:20:01
DailySaintsPod
So that's how I see it happening. Right, let's move on to form and to the AI prediction and and on to the rest of the good stuff.
00:20:13
DailySaintsPod
Our form basically as good as it can be. it is frankly exceptional. Now 17 games unbeaten in the championship.
Recent Form and Competition Analysis
00:20:22
DailySaintsPod
Which is nuts when you think about where we were earlier in the season.
00:20:27
DailySaintsPod
Obviously, last five games, four wins and a draw. Most recently, draw in, of course, with Bristol last week. A very tough for game.
00:20:37
DailySaintsPod
Their form is slightly spottier. I mean, there is... They could have potentially taken this out of our hands completely and put us away before now. In their three most recent games, they drew with Middlesbrough and with West Brom with a win against Charlton chucked in in the middle there for good measure. Yeah.
00:21:22
DailySaintsPod
Some of them are... questionable at best right and I don't want it to be a conspiracy theory or anything honestly just think that the referee we've talked about all season the referees at this level are are just sometimes not very good they've got two players who who get like to get in the box and throw themselves on the floor and if you do that lots and lots I guess eventually maybe it's going to fall in your favor.
Ipswich's Penalty Record Concerns
00:21:50
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, they've had like almost an unreasonable amount of penalties awarded to them, as well as like how dodgy they looked on replay. right They've had 10 penalties received this season, scored 9 of them. The closest team with the most penalties awarded to them this season is Leicester with 6. So there is a...
00:22:11
DailySaintsPod
a huge differential between them and the rest of the league, which is, you know, statistical anomalies happen, but, it's It's a strange one. Obviously, we've only had three all season, but we missed two of them anyway. So it's it's maybe one to keep an eye on. Maybe one, you know, we we did a lot of work on Saturday against City on keeping them outside of our box or or on the edge of our box so they wouldn't pull the trigger.
00:22:43
DailySaintsPod
And... I just don't think that that is something we're going to be able to do in this. And if there is, there's going to be a lot of them throwing themselves, trying to get that penalty.
00:22:52
DailySaintsPod
And we just need to be aware of it, right? I'm not saying it's conspiracy theory. I'm not saying that there's a favour towards Ipswich. And I'm not outright saying that, you know, they're looking to buy these penalties. But the the numbers don't lie. They have been awarded more penalties than anyone else.
00:23:10
DailySaintsPod
And so we need to be careful to not put ourselves in a situation where we can let that cost us. I think that's a pretty balanced way of viewing it. Yeah. yeah It is what it is, right? There are a huge number of reasons that that they could have the most penalties. and And, you know, I've only seen the two most recent ones. and And sure, when you slow it down and watch it back, you can see it's ridiculous. But in real time, is it really that easy?
00:23:39
DailySaintsPod
The fact of the matter is, if you have fast quality strikers, sometimes players are going to resort to fouling them because they don't have an option. So that will lead to penalties. But...
Ipswich Challenge
00:23:50
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, but yeah just something to be aware of and be careful of, to not put ourselves into that situation. Of course, Peltie's not their only threat. they yeah They saw quite a lot of goals.
00:24:03
DailySaintsPod
Just very... a very tough game. Again, they are not where they are in the league by accident. right And sure, their their current form has been hit and miss and not the most convincing of performances. But put they are on 80 points. right They are right in amongst it and they are not a team to be taken lightly. It's going to be a very difficult game and we we go into it knowing that.
00:24:36
DailySaintsPod
So historic form head-to-head, we on the data file I have got, we've got 11 games in the history pack, four wins, five draws, six losses. Of course, we drew there earlier in the season, very early in the season, in fact, won all. I don't want to pay too much attention to that game in the context of this one because it's almost like a completely different era and to to kind of mark that in the books and and solidify that with sort of a justification. Matty Fernandez started for us in that game. it just seems like, uh, a hundred years ago compared to where we are now.
00:25:16
DailySaintsPod
a completely different team, completely different system. Obviously the, the summer transfer window still in full effect at that point. And, uh, it took us a long time to settle even, even into into January.
00:25:28
DailySaintsPod
and to head into this sort of final push and run we've been on. so not a lot that I'm reading from that game that you can sort of apply to this one, but, uh, the, the AI summary suggests that it will be a tight affair with Southampton edging a win, suggesting either a one nil or a two one, uh, which would be nice, wouldn't it?
Predicted Match Outcome
00:25:51
DailySaintsPod
Look, I talked about how goal difference might come in and play a factor if we can score a few, but I just don't think it is going to be that easy. I think it is going to be a very tricky night at St Mary's. I don't think they're going to sit behind the ball with a low block, which we don't like to play against particularly. I think they are going to come at us and play football and that kind of might lead to an open game and play into our hands. But, but Bristol City did that last week as well, and we we didn't look quite ready for it. I think we will be ready for it.
00:26:23
DailySaintsPod
think as a squad, we know the importance of this game and and you know how important refocusing onto this game really is. So my prediction is going to be...
00:26:37
DailySaintsPod
And this was the only part of the show I didn't prepare for or think about in advance. So purely from instinct, I think we are going win tuneil I think clean sheet is in order. i think we're going to fight very hard for it. I think that...
00:26:54
DailySaintsPod
Uh, Laren will get a goal. And I think that Azaz will get a goal and i don't think it'll be comfortable. i think it will be a very hard fought affair. think maybe the second goal won't come until really quite late on.
00:27:10
DailySaintsPod
not going to comfy night under the lights, but it's going to be an important and high-energy night, I think. I'm really looking forward to getting down to St Mary's for the last time in the the regular season, at least.
00:27:24
DailySaintsPod
It's kind of weird feeling, isn't it, to be heading there for the last time in the regular season and hoping, really, that it is the last time of the season, because because that automatics would sure be something. But...
00:27:38
DailySaintsPod
But look, we'll talk about all of that and the permutations that are viable once we get this important game out of the way. We're not going think too far ahead. We're going learn from Tonda's mentality. Next man, next game up. Let's do it. Let's go out and give this one our all and get past this massive challenge it is Ipswich and then gear up and go again at the weekend.
00:28:03
DailySaintsPod
that That's all we can hope for. And I am looking forward to it for sure. But let me know your thoughts, your score predictions, how you think this one will play out and how much you are looking forward to it. I want to hear anyone and everyone's opinion on it on the
Listener Engagement and Social Media
00:28:21
DailySaintsPod
socials. In the comments, Daily Saints pod is where you will find us. absolutely everywhere. TikTok, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Blue Sky. Hit me up let me know. I will be reading through all of it and I look forward to all of your opinions and taking them on board myself because I love...
00:28:42
DailySaintsPod
hearing from you all and and absorbing the the vibe of Saints fans. it's It's what feeds me and fuels me to do this show. Until tomorrow when I will be back after the game with a crazy solo late night recording to talk about it with...
00:29:00
DailySaintsPod
However it plays out and whatever I'm feeling, which is likely to go very off the rails. Until then, though, have a wonderful day.
00:29:10
DailySaintsPod
And maybe for the last home time this season, but definitely for the last time before the playoffs. Come on, you Saints!