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Episode 420: Finances and the importance of promotion
91 Plays9 days ago
Southampton – We talked about the numbers last week, but what are the actual consequences of not getting promoted?
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Transcript
Saints' Win Streak and Social Media Buzz
00:00:13
DailySaintsPod
Hello and welcome back to the Daily Saints pod. My name is Greg and as always today, you're among a good friend and wonderful co-host, Zach. Mate, how are you doing?
00:00:23
Zak
Hey, I'm doing good. I'm i'm less tired than was in recording yesterday because I've had a massive sleep since then. However, I'm still absolutely buzzing off of another win. You know, sorting out all the all the social media clips and stuff has been fun because it's just kind of like, man, everything's so happy.
00:00:39
Zak
yeah
00:00:39
DailySaintsPod
Yeah, it's great. You're right, it's not 11 o'clock at night, so it's the perfect time to be recording. and Look, we've said it a lot, but it has to be reiterated because sometimes it's easy to to look past the good times whilst you're in them.
00:00:54
DailySaintsPod
But what time to be a Saints fan at the moment.
00:00:57
Zak
oh yeah that into a game essentially knowing you're going to win it which is how we felt yesterday which was bad we shouldn't have felt that but ultimately we've won three no so yeah it's just that's been that's not been a thing that we've been able to experience a lot in the last couple of years and just nice to be there again i guess
00:00:58
DailySaintsPod
Fantastic everywhere.
00:01:09
DailySaintsPod
yeah
00:01:18
DailySaintsPod
That's it. But look, today there's there's a small gap in between all of the football. We get one a week for the rest of the season, mate, so we've got to make the most of
Financial Analysis of Saints' Accounts
00:01:29
DailySaintsPod
it.
00:01:31
DailySaintsPod
But look last week I talked a bit about the the accounts that got published and the financial implications. And of course it was to do with last season. And it seemed to go down really well. People really liked it.
00:01:43
DailySaintsPod
It was good. I all really enjoyed it.
00:01:44
Zak
The analysis, Mike.
00:01:45
DailySaintsPod
And... So we've gone one step further and and thought about it a bit more and got some some more thoughts and details to kind of think about what, as we sort of head to the end of this season, what we can expect next year with with what happens if we do and what happens if we don't, because it's big point, right?
00:02:14
DailySaintsPod
You know, three games ago, we weren't sure we were going to make the playoffs. Now there's who knows, right? Playoffs, probably, hopefully, automatics, maybe, but but that's still a big question mark because, The PSR we've heard this week, right?
West Brom's PSR Breach Complications
00:02:30
DailySaintsPod
West Brom being charged potentially with a points deduction for what's being reported as a minor breach of PSR.
00:02:40
DailySaintsPod
One of their, from what I understand, from what I've read, from admittedly no real reliable sources, but one of their authorised deductions that you you get for the PSR, there are certain exclusions. they'd spent slightly more on it than the actual exclusion allows or something.
00:02:59
DailySaintsPod
So it was... You know, it's... It was complicated, man.
00:03:05
Zak
yeah See, it seems that seems like the most minor of minor things, right? Like, that's what I'm kind of...
00:03:09
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. but But breach is a breach, right? You've got to draw the line somewhere, so i kind of get it. Like, oh, we only breached by £3 million. pound like You just don't know, right?
00:03:21
DailySaintsPod
like that's If I breached my taxes by £3 million, pounds like HMRC would be pretty upset.
00:03:23
Zak
i am this I understand. I understand.
00:03:28
DailySaintsPod
So...
00:03:28
Zak
I understand. It's just one of those things where basically what you should actually do, clearly, is commit a bunch of crimes in one go that take so long to investigate that it spans multiple seasons.
00:03:44
Zak
So then you never have to pay for the consequences until it's a problem for the future, right? Yeah. otherwise known as Man City FC, allegedly.
00:03:50
DailySaintsPod
Allegedly. Yeah. But look...
00:03:55
Zak
Allegedly, allegedly, in Minecraft, obviously. Not...
00:03:59
DailySaintsPod
yeah but Moving swiftly on
Saints' Financial Standing and Strategy
00:04:04
DailySaintsPod
from that, yes. What it shows is that actually that the PSR rules are a complicated. They're complex.
00:04:11
DailySaintsPod
And actually there's no real way to properly digest it unless you are you know unless you have full access to the the like detailed breakdown of the accounts and a proper financial understanding of the rules. And that you know very deliberately...
00:04:29
DailySaintsPod
makes that very select group of people. but what it can do is, guess, uh, no, is, is look at the, look at the averages across the board and kind of forecast is maybe the more professional way of putting it back.
00:04:41
Zak
Thank you.
00:04:47
DailySaintsPod
but, So how close are we to the PSR line was the first question I wanted to ask. Because obviously we made some profit in the previous year to this like set of accounts. So this is yeah we're talking a year behind, right? So last season we lost $53.9 million pre-tax.
00:05:10
DailySaintsPod
The season before, which refers to the championship season, we made profit pre-tax, partially through player sales, partially through cutting costs, partially through winning promotion and all of these things. and so where does that leave us? Because obviously the, the 87 million, which was the year before, uh, then drops off, off of the books, basically.
00:05:37
DailySaintsPod
So, yeah, it puts us in in a pretty good position is is the real answer. There are a lot of the deductions that you can be make. It can be expected that we spend a lot of money on, basically. The average for a club in the championship, for example, for deductions on academy spending...
00:05:56
DailySaintsPod
is around 250,000, I believe, whereas ours is probably a bit higher. And so it it all kind of tallies up. And obviously we've had big player sales last season, like Tyler Diblin, who some of that cost will be spread and remunerated into the budget.
00:06:17
DailySaintsPod
So... it It kind of, when you we look back at the January window and we were like, well, this is a crazy window. Why aren't we investing better?
00:06:28
DailySaintsPod
Actually, what we've done is create a really solid foundation, actually. And when we get to to the bit where I sort of talk about what next season might look like...
00:06:43
DailySaintsPod
You understand that that is kind of in both cases, which is nice. it's It's just really sensible, which almost sometimes feels a bit boring, right?
00:06:54
Zak
Yeah, and like I get that. But at the same time, I much prefer the club to be sensible than not, especially when you have look around at the sort clubs around us. You know, Luton being going down and where they are now after the heights of the Premier League and the money you spent in the Premier League.
00:07:13
Zak
And then Leicester, who you know were Premier League winners a decade ago.
00:07:18
DailySaintsPod
yes
00:07:18
Zak
And, you know, as you said, West Brom having a points deduction and everything that's going on with Sheffield Wednesday. It's like... This isn't a like an off-the-cuff occurrence across football right now, right? This is a thing that's happening to significantly more clubs than we would like it to, and maybe that's partly due to PSR. So where I'm at is that I would always prefer that everything is sensible and call-aheads prevail with everything that's happening.
00:07:43
DailySaintsPod
but Yeah, definitely. And I like specifically back to the West Brom example, and as as it's well documented on the show, ties to to West Brom fans within the family. Obviously speaking to them about it, the response was, have we breached PSR? We haven't had any money to spend forever. say But so it's it's good that we've built this and it's very clear that It's very clear that we've had to recover from a pretty difficult situation, right? And some of that what becomes comes from prior to Sports Republic, and some of that comes from the the almost like panic section of Sports Republic.
00:08:23
DailySaintsPod
but But all of this, we we talked even before this incredible run we're on about the the excellent job of the business side of the the club that Sports Republic had been doing. You know, our criticisms were purely based on the football.
00:08:40
DailySaintsPod
And... it's It's good. is I think it sets us up really well for for what's to come. So to to kind of go into to slightly more detail, I'm not just going to throw numbers because because I find that really boring. But effectively, the side-by-side for it is. right Obviously...
00:09:07
DailySaintsPod
it doesn't take genius or any level of analysis to know if we go up to the Premier League, we're going to make more money and going to be in a better position.
Premier League Promotion's Financial Impact
00:09:14
DailySaintsPod
Right. So that's not what this is about.
00:09:17
Zak
we don't We don't need to... we don't need to but bit like Higher league equals more money is a thing that I think most people have a basic understanding of, right?
00:09:23
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:09:25
Zak
Including myself.
00:09:25
DailySaintsPod
However, when it comes down to it, if we go up to the Premier League, we can expect our revenue to increase by about £120 million. pound Before anything else is taken into the equation. Just if we stayed exactly as we are and move up to the Premier League and no sales happen and we don't buy anyone, that's roughly what we're looking at revenue-wise in an increase. Which, of course, taking into account the loss and the profit that kind of feed into the PSR rules...
00:10:02
DailySaintsPod
and also the fact that the PSR rules in the premier league allow you to lose more money than, than the championship, which is, also pretty crazy. we'll potentially have some money to play with in the summer is what that leads to.
00:10:19
DailySaintsPod
And, and, you know, we've talked about positions we're going to need to strengthen, right?
00:10:20
Zak
Nice.
00:10:24
DailySaintsPod
We've talked about how we probably need a fullback. We definitely need a striker. And the goalkeeper situation is going to undoubtedly be complex.
00:10:36
Zak
Yeah.
00:10:36
DailySaintsPod
Let's not get into it.
00:10:37
DailySaintsPod
too we've we've We've covered it before. We're going to cover it all summer. But let's leave it complicated, right?
00:10:43
Zak
It...
00:10:45
Zak
It's going to be complicated and I imagine will hopefully result in like plus money. But again, that kind of depends on promotion or not. But anyway, anyway back back to you with the expertise around the actual financials.
00:10:55
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. But...
00:10:59
DailySaintsPod
Well, that's the thing, mate, because that that increase in revenue, like, obviously, it's not as simple as what i'm about to say. However, what we lost pre-tax last year was less than that increase in revenue will be, right?
00:11:18
DailySaintsPod
So it covers it. It puts us in solid footing, gives us the foundation. And yes, we will need to invest to get up to... yeah you know, to build a squad that's going to be able to deal with the Premier League.
00:11:33
DailySaintsPod
And if you're as optimistic as me about the FA Cup, there might have to be investment into a squad that's able to cope with the Europa League, right? These are things we have to think about. Just put it out there. it's not It's not a not po option, right?
00:11:47
Zak
Bad for that saying. That's a genuine thing we need to kind of think about. but
00:11:53
DailySaintsPod
180 minutes away from that being a genuine possibility. Yeah.
00:11:59
DailySaintsPod
Crazy. But yeah, basically we'll be looking to have a transfer budget at that point, if without anyone going or without anything changing, of of about $100 million. $60 to $100 million to comfortably fall in line with a low-risk PSR strategy.
00:12:17
DailySaintsPod
which Which, you know, we know a board strategy. We know who we are. That's not going to be we're going to go and sign £100 million pound striker.
00:12:29
DailySaintsPod
right They're going to build with lower cost talents they think they can improve, some with experience, some with youth, and try and balance it that way.
00:12:40
DailySaintsPod
But you know maybe that budget, instead of being £6 million to £12 million a player, maybe we're looking in the £20 million to £30 million a player range for that same like improvement.
00:12:54
Zak
Yeah, I think that would be that's kind of what I'd to expect, right?
00:12:54
DailySaintsPod
It's...
00:12:58
Zak
But you've got to make sure you you sort keep within the rules. And also, it depends on how much of an overhaul we think we'll actually need. Because currently you said like we want to strengthen in two or three positions, but they might decide well actual in actuality that they want to strengthen in all positions.
00:13:14
Zak
which might
00:13:14
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:13:15
Zak
But obviously obviously, player sales will contribute to that as well.
00:13:15
DailySaintsPod
and But that. but Exactly right, because there are going to be outgoings, but almost definitely. people Players will leave, players will need replacing. Like we say, the goalkeeper situation will need resolving and will result in finances one way or another.
00:13:31
Zak
Contracts will end. Charlie Taylor.
00:13:33
DailySaintsPod
and And also, that was a low risk. That was a low risk forecast, right?
00:13:35
Zak
Rebo. Hmm.
00:13:38
DailySaintsPod
That's low PSR risk. So actually, if we want to really like push ourselves to the limit to like guarantee Premier League survival or a Europa League trophy, you know there's there's potential like room to to push a higher w risk strategy or or closer to the PSR line, right? Yeah.
00:14:01
DailySaintsPod
So it it is going to be interesting. Obviously, the counterpoint to that is you've probably noticed that the £100 million pounds safe budget for PSR and the you know the increase in how much you're allowed to lose by PSR in the Premier League.
00:14:17
DailySaintsPod
That doesn't exist at all if we stay down, right? Effectively, our transfer budget will be entirely sales-driven if we stay in championship. And even then, cuts will have to be made to wages because the wage turnover we're at would basically push us into breach situation of of PSR. So we'd have to cut wages, cut costs overall.
00:14:43
DailySaintsPod
It probably will be good.
00:14:45
Zak
It's a little bit scary, mate, isn't it, really? Because it's like, I know, i have a lot of faith that we could probably rebuild something off the back of it.
00:14:52
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:14:53
Zak
It's the fact that with what we've got currently, we don't really want to. We don't want to have to go through that. I don't want to have to lose all of the players that we've got currently. It's a really good group. And the reality of the situation is that that's what the cost of not being promoted will do, right?
00:15:01
DailySaintsPod
yeah
00:15:07
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. And so whilst it's a reasonably popular opinion, I've i've seen people say it. oh I think I've said it myself. Maybe it's too soon to go up. Maybe from a footballing perspective, we need another year in the championship to regroup and build. From the financial side of things, realistically, it's just not an option. We don't, if we go down, it's not a case of rebuild. It's, it's almost a case of survive.
00:15:34
DailySaintsPod
not so much in the football context, hopefully, but definitely in, in, in the financial context, it it becomes a case of, cut and save as opposed to build and invest. So the outlook's either way, pretty scary, pretty scary stuff. It's going to be a fascinating summer.
00:15:54
Zak
yeah
00:15:54
DailySaintsPod
It just goes to show that it's it's it's all to play for. We really need to be pushing for it. You're right. the The joke, let's be honest, it is a joke. is we We're not expecting to win the FA Cup.
00:16:08
DailySaintsPod
Put that out there. right Miracles happen. We've talked about expectation versus belief. I believe we can win the FA Cup. but Do not expect that we are going to win the FA Cup.
00:16:19
DailySaintsPod
But, You know, that that is something else take into consideration for next season. it's It's a crazy situation we might find ourselves in where we are both a promoted team and a a European, at least in the group stages. You've got to feel like we probably wouldn't prioritise doing well in Europe and would prioritise staying the Premier League. But the thought of even potentially having to organise a European away day is nuts, isn't it?
00:16:48
Zak
I mean, yeah, but look, we've got to see a couple of teams who are struggling this year do that, right? with With Spurs, who, you know, were Champions League and are now in the relegation zone and don't look like they're coming out of it anytime soon, if I'm totally honest.
00:16:53
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:16:59
DailySaintsPod
Mm.
00:17:02
Zak
And then Forrest in a similar position as well, where they, you know, had that massive argument with Bristol Palace to get into Europa and are now, arts you know, when their fourth manager of the season.
00:17:11
DailySaintsPod
Mm.
00:17:11
Zak
And that seems to be really, really hard to manage that. and So it's kind of weird that that might genuinely be a thing we need to prepare for.
00:17:20
DailySaintsPod
yeah Yeah, because it's a scary prospect, right? You talk about the step up to the Premier League from the Championship and evidence that in our previous season.
00:17:30
DailySaintsPod
But this squad is fantastic. And do I believe it in its current form it could compete in the Premier League Yes. Does that mean that we don't need to strengthen? No, we're going to need to build squad depth and there are positions that are going to become concerns.
00:17:46
DailySaintsPod
And on top of that, players are going to move on because that is the nature of the sport. So it's going to be a busy summer either way. but But yeah, the thought that...
00:17:59
DailySaintsPod
realistically, even for forecasts from like the the most prepared they could be from from Sports Republic. And you know they will have forecasted out what they need to do to stay in the if they stay in the championship. They're not stupid. They're good business people. they They will have a plan.
00:18:17
DailySaintsPod
okay And I but believe it will not be devastating, but it will not be the same.
Listener Engagement and Social Media
00:18:22
DailySaintsPod
and In the same way, they'll have a plan going up to the Premier League. but I cannot imagine for a second that their forecast and plan for going up in the Premier League involves a European run.
00:18:32
DailySaintsPod
LAUGHTER but
00:18:36
Zak
Yeah, you've you've got a wonder if if all of a sudden we get to Wembley and it's a fully rotated squad, you know what's going
00:18:45
DailySaintsPod
And look, the nature of the cup is that we'd win anyway, because that's that's the joy of it. But yeah, I mean, look, it's it's interesting to think about.
00:18:51
Zak
Yeah.
00:18:53
DailySaintsPod
It's fascinating, but I just think it's crucial to to take note, because it it it really, until I read through it, it didn't sit as as heavily with me as it has now that I understand it, how important promotion is, because I was firmly in the camp of, just prefer championship football, to be honest.
00:19:11
DailySaintsPod
I'm fine with it. But...
00:19:13
Zak
Yeah, it's the...
00:19:14
DailySaintsPod
But next season is is potentially a bit more bleak if we don't.
00:19:19
Zak
We can't enjoy it as much, right?
00:19:20
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:19:21
Zak
If it's going to be... Yeah, no, I get what you're saying.
00:19:26
DailySaintsPod
yeah
00:19:26
Zak
I wouldn't mind another year, but...
00:19:27
DailySaintsPod
And look, I don't think it would be disaster, but it would not be immediate rebuild. It would be slow and steady rebuild, I think, from that point.
00:19:39
DailySaintsPod
Which is you know a trickier place to be. Once you're in that place, it's a hard league to get out of. So that's not what we it's not what we want. So yeah, let's just do it.
00:19:50
DailySaintsPod
Win all four of the games remaining, go up, buy hook or buy crook, and have a fantastic summer where we can contemplate what £100 million pound striker were going to sign.
00:19:52
Zak
Yep. Yep.
00:20:02
Zak
Yep. And then also potentially but what where are we going to stay when we go to Europe? You know, what teams we're going to play?
00:20:06
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:20:09
DailySaintsPod
Yeah. going to be great.
00:20:11
Zak
Looking forward to the Community Shield. Oh, boy.
00:20:13
DailySaintsPod
Yeah.
00:20:17
DailySaintsPod
yeah
00:20:18
Zak
What day. or day
00:20:21
DailySaintsPod
But look, I hope that that forecast and that speculation on the future provides a bit of insight and a bit of entertainment.
00:20:31
DailySaintsPod
But that's all I've got, mate. That's it. that's it
00:20:36
Zak
Cool. i Appreciate it, mate.
00:20:37
DailySaintsPod
but
00:20:38
Zak
No, it's, again, interesting to get a bit of an insight into it. The financial side of things are a thing I struggle with in in life, let alone looking into football side of financials.
00:20:49
Zak
So it's always fascinating to me when you do a deep dive into it, because, you know, like like with me, when I use my history degree, this is genuinely you going like, I just find numbers really interesting. And I'm like, I'm really glad one of us do.
00:21:01
Zak
Yeah.
00:21:03
DailySaintsPod
it's It's good. Yeah. Yeah. Good stuff. So, yeah. Thank you, everyone, for for listening and joining us. And thank you, mate, for listening to me together.
00:21:14
Zak
Thank you. Appreciate it.
00:21:15
DailySaintsPod
Look, we will be back tomorrow as we preview our trip to Swansea to hopefully make it 19 games unbeaten, which is absolutely insane. But look, let us know in the comments on the socials how you're feeling.
00:21:33
DailySaintsPod
What European away day do you want most? That's what I want to hear from you in the comments. We are Daily Faints Pod absolutely everywhere.
00:21:42
DailySaintsPod
X Blue Sky TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook. Hit us up. Let us know. i cannot wait to hear your answers. Honestly, it is amazing. What a time to be a Saints fan. Until tomorrow, though, everyone, have a wonderful day.
00:21:58
DailySaintsPod
We will see you then.