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Hilux-winning strategies, key insights, and aggressive trading with 2022 AFL Fantasy Classic winner Matt Mottram | #PODPOD
122 Plays2 years ago
Holmesy sits down with the 2022 AFL Fantasy Classic winner Matt Mottram to talk about his phenomenal season, the strategies that earned him the Hilux, the highs and lows of leading the competition for most of the year, and some key insights and learnings along the way.
Matt discusses what makes a good starting squad, why trading aggressively was a strategy that worked for him, the importance of trusting your gut, and his plans for 2023.
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Transcript
00:00:03
Speaker
you
Introduction and Holiday Greetings
00:00:17
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's your boy, Dossi. Hope you're having a fantastic holiday season. Family and friends are going well and that you're not spending too much time tucked away in the corner of the family dinners using those various team building spreadsheets that are out there. As I know, I am at the moment.
Interview Series Introduction with Matt Motrum
00:00:37
Speaker
But look, heading into the new year, Holmsey has gone the extra mile and he's given us some one-on-one interviews with some of the best and brightest in the world of fantasy footy. What better way to start as well with his opening interview than with Matt Motrum, the reigning Hilux winner. That's right. He took it all home. He did it all. Let's hear about his season with Holmsey, who's also been up at the pointy end. Holmsey himself, the 2021 runner up.
00:01:07
Speaker
And Holmes is just doing it all this pre-season. He's going out solo. He's having a second year breakout, I reckon, because he's just the content king this pre-season. He's gone and done this on his lonesome, away from the pod pot. He's just like, yo, Dossie, got a couple of interviews ready to go.
00:01:23
Speaker
I'm like, well, homesy, you've got a 12 pack year, you're shredded to all shit. And now you're out there producing content on your own. So good on homesy. Thank you so much for producing this. He's got another one lined up for next week as well.
Sponsor Support Encouragement
00:01:39
Speaker
So stay tuned, keep subscribed, follow on Spotify, get your ratings and reviews in.
00:01:44
Speaker
And of course, support our sponsors at the Keeper League pod. Go to keeperleaguepod.com.au, use the code podpod at sign up for 20% off and you can go the extra mile too in your pre-season research. Get your CBA's, kicking trends, drafty fantasy analysis for all that rookie research, get scoring trends against teams, weekly AFL fantasy projections, all that good stuff. It's not just for Keeper League.
00:02:10
Speaker
is for every format including your AFL fantasy classic teams. Use the code podpod on sign up, let them know that we sent you. And now, enjoy the episode with Holmzy and 2022 winner, overall winner, Hilux winner, Matt Motrum.
Matt Motrum's Victory Experience
00:02:34
Speaker
All right, so I'm here today with Matt, coach of Matty's Marvels, winner of AFL Fantasy Classic in 2022. Matt, how are you going, mate? Yeah, I'm going good, Kyle. Thanks for having me on.
00:02:47
Speaker
Yeah, thanks for getting involved. I thought it was a good opportunity. I've just started getting into the fantasy again with the pre-season starting to begin. And as the mind started ticking over and I started having a bit of a think about how I'm going to attack this season, I thought, where better to start than to have a chat with the guy that won it last year. So thanks for getting involved. And before we get started, I suppose, let's just check in with you. How have you been since you won the car and you were able to switch off a little bit after a pretty hectic season?
00:03:16
Speaker
It's been pretty well. Initially it took a while for the whole thing to sink in, but since everything sort of finished up, it really did sink in quite a bit, especially once all the prizes come in. You go to the grand final, enjoy all the rewards of your feats and it sinks in a fair bit. So yeah, had a few moments of reflecting back and thinking about what I've achieved. And for us guys who really love AFL fantasy, I think it is a lifelong dream to win it, to actually win it.
00:03:46
Speaker
and go down in the history books is pretty, pretty amazing, really. So yeah, been going well, just winding down to the year and looking forward to a nice break of Christmas. Yeah. So I suppose the question I want to know is, is how's the, how's the Hilux? How's it going? You've, you've picked it up. You've got it at, got it at home at the moment. The Hilux is pretty good. I wrote it back from the, when I wrote it back from the car yard, it was, I felt like I was driving a truck mate. Never driven one before. It was massive. Yeah.
00:04:16
Speaker
and my older daughter with me too. And we both were just like, what's going on? This is a bus. Very thankful to the AFL web.com and Toyota for such an amazing prize. They were really good down there too. So Toyota on the day the lady even organized the meetup with Zach Merritt on the Friday before the grand final. And I had a good chat to Zach about that amazing round where that captain choice came into play. And he actually even knew about it.
00:04:45
Speaker
So he got tagged on social media and he said he did know about it. So yeah, it's interesting.
Key Strategies in Fantasy Footy
00:04:50
Speaker
Yeah, that's right. I do remember saying, yeah, that would have been pretty good to thank the bloke that's responsible for winning you the car because you wouldn't have, you wouldn't have done it if you had have had a, just an average game, right? It was pretty close towards with you and James at the end there, wasn't it? Yeah, this is getting really tight. So that really kept my sort of buffer for me going to last few weeks. So yeah, being an essence supporter, very thankful to captain Merritt
00:05:15
Speaker
Yeah, beautiful. And what else have you been up to? So obviously switching off after the fantasy season. I know you're a big NBA man. How have you been keeping yourself busy since the season wrapped up? Yeah, so do a couple of NBA things. Do the Yahoo fantasy stuff with a few groups. So I got that going and it's not as serious as AFL fantasy because you do a draft and it's a bit of fun and you have your own team. But it's still nice to actually own your own players, whereas in fantasy, everyone can own them.
00:05:45
Speaker
but it's a bit more like the draft in AFL fantasy and you get your own players and follow along and you can do trades and stuff and it's good fun. So really enjoy that. And I even dabble in the sports deck one, you know, sports deck to AFL dream team, real dream team. Yeah. Yep. Yep. They do one for basketball. No big prizes or anything, but I've probably spent five, 10 minutes on that a week and put my team through and it's actually going all right this year.
00:06:14
Speaker
See what happens. Yeah. How are you tracking? You're going to do the, you're going to win the double or you're not that, not that far. I don't think I win a double. I'm like 18, that is 3,300. So it's not bad, but yeah, look, I think there's a five and a double prize or something. So yeah, it's more fun.
00:06:33
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, beautiful. All right, so what I thought we'd do today, just keep it pretty casual. Like I said, it was just an opportunity for myself as well, just to chat to the guy that took it out last year and have a bit of a more in-depth conversation about the season that was and sort of the strategies that you were looking at in your starting squad and what really set you up to win the comp, because I've spoken to Selby about this and it's public knowledge that you got in front at round nine and you were able to hang on and win the comp from there, which is,
00:07:02
Speaker
not a regular feat normally we see people get out in front early and then teams will storm home so the fact that you're able to to do it from there i think is proof that you found a different way to play the game that might be you know a little bit different to some of the winners in the past and it's just going to be interesting to to pick your brain so where i thought we would start is just with your starting squad okay because obviously it's pre-season and and very soon the game's going to be opening up and we'll start to to look at building our starting squads as well so
00:07:31
Speaker
Let's just start with the back line. So you had some of your premiums. So you started with three premiums. You had Jack Crisp, you had Locky Whitfield and you had Jaden Short. Talk me through those starting selections and what you were sort of looking for there. I think with every line I was looking through, obviously, guys, it can give me a good score, have a bit of a ceiling, but also represent some sort of value. So I think if you can get both of those happening, you're doing well.
00:07:58
Speaker
Those guys going into the season were pretty popular, I think. Crisp was a bit of a concern at the start, but a long story to tell with Crisp because it comes right into it right at the end as well. But yeah, I think that's really the goal, just to get a bit of value, get some premiums who you think can score well.
00:08:16
Speaker
Yeah, I think, yeah, Jack Crisp was pretty popular, especially moving into the midfield and, you know, in hindsight might have been a little bit of a risky pick with the new coach and not knowing the system, but he was clearly a top sort of three defender for the first half of the year and got off to a great start. So fantastic picks there and even Whitfield and Jayden Short, although Short started the season fantastic and slowed Whitfield a little bit underwhelming, but you're still happy with that sort of selection and how that played out.
00:08:44
Speaker
I think it was pretty common mostly. And it gave me money to spend in my midfield, my forward line of rucks. So yeah, I was happy with that.
00:08:55
Speaker
Yeah, we will get to your rocks shortly, but yeah, so pretty standard backline. George Hewitt, just that underpriced defender that you could get who was playing midfield. So it was pretty obvious there in pre-season once that role had shown and he looked like he was gonna be capable of putting up those scores that he was gonna be a very good starting selection. What about Wayne Miller? Talk me through that because he tricked me as well. So what did you see with that?
00:09:23
Speaker
Oh look, once again, I just made a mistake, mate. I saw him as a bit of value and I thought I could save a bit of money in the back line, maybe go cheaper in the back line, spend money elsewhere. And yeah, I got caught into the trap. But it goes to show you, you don't have to have a perfect starting squad. You just have to, I think the main thing is nailing most of the good rookies, most of the mid prices and have a decent set of premiums and you can recover and we'll talk through how I recovered from that.
00:09:53
Speaker
Yeah look, I got tricked into that Wayne Miller a pick as well and all pre-season I was telling the other boys not to pick him, even if he got selected, it's just too risky off, you know, two years out of footy.
00:10:05
Speaker
round one rolls around and you're right, you try and spend down in defence because there wasn't that many options there and all of a sudden he's in your squad. So, yeah, you're dead right. It just shows that you don't have to nail every single pick before to do well, especially with you being in the top 100 from about round six, if I go back through your article. Perfect. So, we won't talk about the rookies too much. Obviously, we know it's important to pick the right rookies and they don't really
00:10:32
Speaker
appear and show themselves until sort of closer to round one when we get teams and we see those practice games. So, Jack McRae and Josh Kelly, two staples there. What were your thoughts? I was pretty set on McRae early on. I thought I've had him the previous years and he can be one of those frustrating picks. He can kill it or he can really, you know, as the boys say on most Raiders, soak it up a bit on the wing. And yeah, he was an up and down.
00:11:00
Speaker
started all right, but really frustrating towards the end. Kelly, I thought Kelly was going to have a better season. And it was funny thing is I was, it was either him or Braeshaw in my starting spot and I went with Kelly. Um, so it's interesting how that one worked out. And yeah, then the other three were more value picks. So even Kelly was a pretty, pretty value pick, I think. And McRae, I didn't go with Took, I didn't go with Steel.
00:11:27
Speaker
I stayed away from the big dollars and tried to pick four value picks across that midline.
00:11:34
Speaker
Yeah, so we'll digress a little bit. We'll keep going. But so Jack McRae this year priced at 103, 104. If you were to pick your starting squad again, is he someone that you'll consider? Just more for my own knowledge here as well, because I'd really want to go back to the well with him. He's been a favorite of mine for a number of years. And any player that can go 100 plus in their second season can clearly play footy. But it just seems like he's sort of dropped off a bit in the last sort of year and a half.
00:12:02
Speaker
and you know, where he fits in that Bulldogs midfield, I'm not too sure. So what are your thoughts? Well, without Dunkley there, it obviously adds a bit of room, a little bit of room, but I actually haven't really thought through this. I think it'd be in consideration and it just depends on who I can fit in there and who I'm looking to slot in there, whether there's room, because as we'll talk about maybe later on, there's a couple of nice picks there for us.
00:12:28
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. So we had, you had Locky Neal, obviously a very, very popular pick, I think priced in the low 90s and it wasn't until the end of the season when he started to slow, but he was a clear top eight mid for a large portion of the season. So he was a fantastic pick. And Patrick Cripps, one that I couldn't bring myself to pick after he burned me and cost me a car the year before, but he was in hindsight, just an absolute no brainer pick priced at 80.
00:12:53
Speaker
And once again, he was putting up top eight numbers for a large portion at the start of the season as well, getting you off to a hot start. So, well done there. Matt Rau, so like the rest of the comp, Matt Rau kind of tricked us in there and came out all guns blazing with that big one, I think 115 round there in round one. But how quickly did you get Matt Rau out of your side? Were you one of those coaches that traded in pretty early? Very early, made a very early decisive call on him. And I suppose if we talk about trades,
00:13:22
Speaker
bit later I can go into it a bit more very early and I think that made a huge difference for me going up the ranks. Yep, yep, beautiful. So yeah, Jason Horn-Francis, Nick Daikos, Josh Ward, three of the most popular rookies there, all fantastic starting selections and Nick Daikos was in a lot of sides towards the end of the year. So perfect, perfect rookie selections there. Now here's where it gets interesting. So in your rucks,
00:13:48
Speaker
So you started Tim English and Brody Grundy, but obviously you had Proust on the field in round one to get that Jack Hayes score. What were your thoughts going, Tim English and Brody Grundy, and then even Proust on the bench? I'd already decided that I was probably going to go with English and Proust on the bench. So yeah, it was just simple to actually pull that move and actually move Proust onto the field.
00:14:15
Speaker
at that stage and so that was part of my strategy to start with Pruce on the bench. So I saw him as a good pick and I like the idea. I read a few articles about English early on and heard some stuff about his leadership, his fitness and how he was doing a lot more through the midfield and stuff and having a greater role in the ruck. So I thought I see potential there and I'll pick English and work that well.
00:14:42
Speaker
Yeah, he had that breakout season that we'd always thought he would have at some stage.
00:14:47
Speaker
I'm unlucky for some, he got injured and then he was sick and then he got injured again and it was just a bit of a rollercoaster but he definitely started off very, very hot. Proust on the bench, it was definitely ballsy. I know a lot of people, a lot of coaches don't like to spend up that much on the bench but he did definitely prove to be that competition winning pick early on making sort of 300 plus K and scoring at the rate he did.
00:15:14
Speaker
That was a very good move, especially with me going on the traders and talking about Gorn and Grundy and knowing that a large portion of the comp would go that way, especially after the traders did it. So it was a good bit of game theory there to go against the comp. And if it goes your way, then you're already a good, good step ahead. So very, very good there. I do. Sorry, I do listen to those interviews early in the year as part of my preseason. And I listen to what you said and listen to everything. And I definitely weighed it up. So
00:15:44
Speaker
It came into consideration. It's part of the preseason. Yeah, absolutely. I'm the same. I'll consume a lot of content out there and try to take in and see as many angles as I can before ultimately trusting my gut and what I feel. But yeah, you are right. It's good to have a listen and see what a lot of the rest of the comp is doing.
00:16:04
Speaker
We'll talk about your forwards briefly. Josh Dunkley, I don't think we need it to touch on really absolute gun. He was a no-brainer pick. I can't remember what price he was started at, but him being available as a forward was an absolute no-brainer. Cogs and butters, so I'm guessing just two underpriced guys that you thought would potentially get a little bit more midfield time and outscore what they were priced at to begin with. Pretty much, yeah. I think you spot on with that. That's exactly how I saw it.
00:16:34
Speaker
Obviously, Caniglio, when the coach role changed, some people traded him out prior to that. I held, and the coaches were going to change, and it really paid off. Butters is just one of those frustrating guys. He has so much potential, and he can really, once he gets in there, he can really get some big scores, but he didn't quite hit it this year, this past season, but I think he can.
00:16:56
Speaker
Yeah, do you see butters as a successful pick? I remember I didn't start him and I remember watching, I can still remember that round two game against Hawthorne when he had, I think it was 137 and it made me feel absolutely sick that I didn't have him but he kind of fizzled out. I think there was a patch of about four or five rounds in there where he averaged about 50 or 55 and you're right, he kind of promises the world but sort of under delivers or gets injured. So do you see that as a successful pick or?
00:17:24
Speaker
It got me to where I got to at the end. In the long view, yes, but over the season it was very frustrating. I had to hold, hold, hold with so many other things I wanted to fix in my team. It was very frustrating when I found a career game that was nice.
00:17:43
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And then Will Brody, just another mid price player that was touted that was going to get a lot of midfield time. And once again, it was pretty obvious in preseason that that's the role that Freo had in mind for him. And I suppose with so many of the comp.
00:18:00
Speaker
taking him on as well that it was a pretty obvious pick for him. So that was your starting squad mate. Like I said, it's pretty vanilla. I know I had a lot of those same players but we know that picking a good starting squad is only a little piece of the puzzle and a lot of the time it comes down to how you trade around it to sort of trade your way to the top. So
00:18:21
Speaker
Let's have a little bit of a chat about some of your successful trades and we might touch on some of the non-successful ones as well. But what are some of the trades early on that, you know, sort of set you up for that, you know, aggressive leap to the top so early? A lot of my really early trades are the ones that did it for me, to be honest. So before round two, we talked about the Miller a pick.
00:18:45
Speaker
how bad it was so I realised I had to fix my structure in defence and straight away James Sicily.
Impactful Trades and Decisions
00:18:51
Speaker
I had James Sicily in my team pre-season, took him out before Round 1 to fit other things because we didn't have many rookies in the back line and regretted it so straight back in and look I think that set me up for the year that one trade as simple as it is really helped me going forward after Round 1. So that was the first one, did you want to talk on that anymore or
00:19:12
Speaker
Yeah, look, I suppose that's just the value of going early. So I know, dead right, I had Miller as well. I already had Cicely, so it wasn't as cut and dry to just trade to him, but Cicely was such an obvious pick. So just being aggressive and not waiting and just going bang. I think, did Miller get dropped around too? I think the decision was made.
00:19:34
Speaker
I think the decision was made for us that we had to trade, but I remember being in the same boat and not knowing who to trade to because rookies and mid prices were already pretty thin back there. So the fact that you'd already nailed everything else was a big part of how you were able to just go bang straight away. So, yep, perfect. What else? Well, the other one was a restructure for round three. So this is really, I think this is, it was a bit of a complicated trade, but I think it was
00:20:03
Speaker
one of the biggest and best trades I did early on to catapult me right up the ranks. So I know I said it in short in the article, but basically I restructured because I had Proust there and I think Proust came on. So I traded out Grundy and I swapped Grundy into the midfield to become Andy Brayshaw. So I missed that Andy Brayshaw pick and I've missed a couple of big scores and a lot of philosophies are you've missed the big scores. Don't chase the point.
00:20:31
Speaker
you know, jump on these guys after, after they've gone big. And I just thought to myself, no, I'm seeing it as Andy Bradshaw is going to have one hell of a season. I fought a prider this season and I went with Kelly. So I said, no, I can't watch this. I brought him in. And I think that was really decisive and crucial for me. And also to get Bradshaw, I traded out and row at the same time that early on, swapped him into defense for Nathan O'Driscoll. So,
00:20:58
Speaker
That was a huge restructuring trade for me that really helped me. Yeah, absolutely. And then I suppose I can't remember exactly what round it was, but Grundy would go on to get a 50, I think, against Big O a couple of weeks later and you'd already traded him out. So you're already a big step up there, not copying that score. And then, yeah, you couldn't have foreseen Grundy getting injured.
00:21:20
Speaker
He wasn't, he wasn't playing his best footy and you've just decided to be aggressive and go bang. So who was, so just talk me through that. So who was your ruckman then? So you had, you would have had Prouss on field and then English still. He hadn't been injured. He wasn't injured at this point. I don't think so, no. Pretty sure it was English and Prouss I was playing with. I think Jack Hayes. I don't know if I had any forward or I was swapping him, but he got into that one after anyway. So yeah, that was my ruck laugh. I'll stick with that and see where we go.
00:21:50
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, no, that's awesome. And I suppose that's one of the things that I've sort of struggled with in the last two years. It was, you know, when I came second back in 2021, when Jack Steele took Miller and Jared Lyons, those were the three players that were just going on those absolute tears. And I just, in my mindset, it was like, nah, keep finding the value, you've missed their scores. And they would just keep going on those tears. And it was the same with Rory Laird this year. It's just, you know, once they're gone, they're gone.
00:22:17
Speaker
The fact that you've gone so aggressive to get the man that you want, you've clearly seen something in him and a lot of teams wouldn't do that. But I suppose that was a big part of where you got to so early. So that's probably a good thing to learn. It's not always going to pay off, but you do need to take some pretty big risks in this game if you do want to win it. So very good. Yeah, keep going through. So what about some other trades? Round four, I added another primo defender to my back line. I put in Jordan Dawson.
00:22:46
Speaker
And that was probably before anybody jumped on him. I just saw him as going to be one of the top six backs and got him in early. So I just wanted to slowly tick those boxes, get in that extra key defender, sorry, premium defender. And yeah, he was a good move. And then probably round five, before round five was my big trade, the other big one that set me up for the year. And that was,
00:23:12
Speaker
I don't know if you remember the round when Bailey Smith went 150-something and a lot of people jumped on him that week. That was the week I decided to bring in Callum Mills as my new field premade, my next one. And I think he got 106 or something. And I knew he had the Achilles early, but we also know what a beast he was. And the year before, funny enough, he's one of my favorite players and I didn't get him in my backline soon enough and I missed all those big scores in Watford. So I thought,
00:23:39
Speaker
This year I'm going to jump on him and he didn't reward me immediately, but then I think he went on a really massive run of like 160s, 130s, and 40s, and he was just in and out of one of the best picks for the year in the mid field. Yeah, he's an absolute gun.
00:23:59
Speaker
He's hard to own because we see Horst just throw him around. One minute he's inside mid and he's just everywhere and then he's playing full back as that quarterback. But yeah, you're right, he's fantastic. I was eyeing him off early too, but I suppose I was a little bit worried about the Achilles and he was slowly building, but you never really know with those type of injuries. But once again, you've just seen what you've seen and you've just been aggressive and gone for it.
00:24:27
Speaker
can clearly see the the sort of theme and the way you sort of set yourself up early to to get to where you were some big big scores from these players that you've brought in and and yeah so let's we'll go sort of around the buy period so what was your sort of plan going into the buyers obviously we know that you want to come out of the buyers with a better team than than what you started with but being sort of number one already were you a little bit more sort of nervous around the buyers or you just kind of just kept playing you your game? I was pretty confident going into the buyers because
00:24:55
Speaker
I have the structure there to cover me. I knew there was going to be a couple of rounds, but I'll take a couple of hits, but it wasn't going to be massive hits, so I should be able to keep my team. So I planned for the buys without being OCD about the buys, if that makes sense. And two trades I did prior to the buys helped me. So around seven, I bought in Luke Parker before most people jumped on, being a forward. And the other big pick, which has a lot to do with the buys, is Tom Stewart.
00:25:25
Speaker
delivered me some massive scores just prior to the buys I've got on him. I think he had a 170 or something down at Geelong and it really, I was ready to push me to like 270 something in front early. I'm going into the buys and it really set me up. But on the other end in the buys, I think he got concussed and it hurt me a little bit there too. So yeah, my strategy in the buys was just I had all these players that I wanted to get.
00:25:52
Speaker
Rory Leed was one of them. I had these players and just lined them up one after one and picked them off and just brought them in as I could every round. Yeah, that was my strategy. Yeah, awesome. So we've seen some of your really good trades. What about some of the ones that weren't so good that you've kind of learned off a little bit? Yeah, they're probably having a look at the trades. They're probably more of a once after the buys.
00:26:23
Speaker
I mean, even during the vise, I brought in Jed Anderson to cover me because he was 14 and he did his job, but he really wasn't a successful trade. Zach Merritt initially was an average trade because he wasn't hitting big scores, but he was well priced. So he paid off later on down the track. Who else? When I brought in Tim Taranto around 15, he had a really bad score and I was really concerned.
00:26:53
Speaker
but he came good and he kept, he, he was okay until I traded him out again. And, and then the rucks, they were just, I think English got injured during the, uh, by rounds. And I think Bruce has got some problems. I think I already got rid of him, but yeah, I got wits in, I think, and he didn't set the world on fire. And then I got Darcy and he didn't set the world on fire. So it was a constant struggle in that rucks just to, just to get through. Um, so yeah.
00:27:24
Speaker
Definitely wasn't easy as the year went on trades. They seemed easy early because I think I think we had a conversation or you said something in one of your pods about as often a few questions later in the year and you've been seeing it really well just to go with the gut. And I think I really did see it well for probably half the year or three quarters of the year. But once I've been in front for quite a while and you're really trying to work a strategy to stay in front,
00:27:54
Speaker
you tend to maybe second guess yourself a bit more and you don't see it as clearly. So that's what I struggled with as the year went on, I think. But I really did see it clearly early on. Yeah, so I suppose let's just touch on that. So clear theme early on of just that aggressive trading, going after the guys that you want, just trusting in yourself and really setting yourself up. I suppose there's a little, not as much pressure early days when you've got a good rank, but you're not number one.
00:28:20
Speaker
And are you saying that your strategy kind of changed as the season went on? You know, you started second guessing yourself a little bit and just, you know, the stress and the nerves of needing to hold on when no one had done it before and having some teams from behind, you know, starting to push up. Did you kind of look at those teams a little bit and think, you know, should I match those players instead of, you know, backing what I do or you continue just to play your game? How did you kind of go about it? A bit of both. As it got towards the end, it was more math.
Final Round Strategy and Nerves
00:28:51
Speaker
but a bit of both along the way. It was just seeing, I always checked every week, I would listen to the boys on the classic podcast, Jepper and Pete, they're excellent. And I've listened to them and people always give these percentages of ownership. And I would just note that down every week and just keep one eye on that with who I'm picking. It didn't dictate my trades, but it definitely played into part of the consideration of who I was gonna pick.
00:29:19
Speaker
And as I got towards the end that ownership was really important because I know people were chasing me down through the buys and into just after post buys and some of the back line guys I didn't have like Sinclair and Docherty and I had to pick them off because the guys behind me The ones who were making ground of me had those two and they were clearly becoming the top two defenders And the funny thing is the week I brought in Docherty had a really bad score in the following week I've got Sinclair here at a bad score
00:29:48
Speaker
So it didn't go all my way, but I had to get them and I just kind of played the odds and just kept getting those top guys in. Yeah, it was interesting. I think you've kind of shown it, but the teams that got on to, I feel anyway, the Dawson, Docherty, Sinclair, Trio were the ones that did quite well. I think we're all kind of looking for value in defence and
00:30:13
Speaker
You know, generally as a rule of thumb, they're sort of that flat 9,500 averaging players and they don't go too much more than that. But having, you know, Doc go 110, Sinclair having large stretches, you know, 105 plus before sort of teetering off and Dawson doing the same before getting those tags, it was probably the year to pay up in defence and really target those players. So a bit unlucky that when you decided to do it, that they decided to not show up for you. But yeah, it just shows that if you've done everything else right up until that point,
00:30:42
Speaker
you know, it doesn't really matter when you've got that lead. So let's talk about the last round. Obviously I'm a bit intrigued because I've only ever come from behind. So what was it like in that last round trying to hold on and what were your thoughts? I know, so you traded in, it was Blitzharves and Himmelberg. I was quite over it. I had you messaging me. I was talking to James, you know, the traders boys were sort of talking about it as well. So, you know, what were your thoughts going into that last round and how nervous did you get?
00:31:11
Speaker
I was more nervous the second last round, to be honest, especially after a few weeks before that, that massive captain call on merit. Yeah, I don't know. I felt like I had a lot more to lose the second last round leading in and I felt the pressure a lot more second last round for some reason. And I don't know. I think I messaged a few people in yourself and I just said, look, I've come to realization I'm either going to win or lose. And what I've done is pretty unbelievable to lead as long as I had.
00:31:41
Speaker
And I just felt a bit of a weight come off me. And I just thought, all right, get into it now. What's my strategy? I'm just going to do the best I can. And if it comes off, it comes off, it doesn't, it doesn't. And my strategy was, we're going to match. And that's dangerous sometimes. But it paid off. And even backing right down to the captain, which would probably have been insane when you think about it. Because I had a, my other captains, I had Merritt picked, and I think it was Dunkley,
00:32:10
Speaker
Merritt was probably the one I really want to go with, but I was just kind of safe in a sense and mapped James's captain and land was pretty good anyway. So it eliminated a lot of the risks. So that was my way of thinking about it, lessen the odds to lose and hopefully I'll hold on. But on the last day, there's a few things that happened which nearly stopped the win.
00:32:37
Speaker
Yeah. So that, um, the, the Freo GWS game was, was earlier, wasn't it? So you've, you've matched, you've matched Himmelberg. And then because James traded, had to trade out Aaron Hall, were you able to see that he'd gone Hall to Blitzabs and that was the easy thing to do or, or did you just trust your gut that that's what he was going to do? I was sorry for the trades and I knew where I stood and then I knew what call I had to make. I actually didn't really want to trade Himmelberg again.
00:33:04
Speaker
And I didn't and I think I traded brochure out and I didn't want to trade brochure out. And it was really the last second that I did it. Very last second. And I saw on the TV that Himmelberg was going forward and I kicked. I felt sick in my stomach. I was like all year off, stayed off in because I was ready to get him going forward and had this feeling he's going to go forward in the last round because he's so dangerous. I felt I had to do it, but it was kind of against my inclination. So it goes to show you should go.
00:33:33
Speaker
because it was against my inclination, but I played the odds and I got that one really wrong, really wrong. I actually like Sicily in the last round against, I don't know if it was against Bordeaux, I thought he'd score B and he did. So if I just back myself and set a match, I probably would have won by more points in the end. So my strategy caused me more grief, but hey, it's all history now.
00:33:58
Speaker
How sick in your stomach were you when you saw that Bailey Smith was getting that tag early in that last game? Well, I was out roller skating, and I kept pulling my phone out, and my wife kept saying, put it away. And I knew what was going on. And on the trip home, I knew what score he was on. And I was thinking, jeez, this is going to be tight. If anything, I'm not going to get up. It just continues. And the great man, Shelby, knew how I was feeling. And he messaged me and said, they're taking the tag off of Smith. And I was like, what?
00:34:29
Speaker
And yeah, I'm thinking I've got to go to 30-something points. So all these little twists and turns can make a massive difference in who wins and who doesn't. And you've got no control over it.
00:34:41
Speaker
Yeah, no, you're absolutely right. But you got there in the end. So if you had to sort of sum up your season and sort of talk about your learnings and what you, you know, you definitely learn and what you'll take into the future if you play this game. So where are you at? What have you sort of, how can you sum up your season and moving forward? What can we do? Look, I think something I did, it's funny, you might think it's a bit crazy for me to say this, but this time last year,
00:35:11
Speaker
I was sitting down, I had a little Word document with the players I was looking at, and one of the students I used to talk to about fantasy and stuff, we both said we're gonna win it next year, and we believed we could win it, and I believed I could win it, and I don't know, I was just taking constant notes and going over things and following things, and then had a break at Christmas. So I think that pre-season research is, don't underestimate it, it helps, but it's not everything.
00:35:39
Speaker
then I think you've just got to have a solid starting squad. And then one thing I took away was a lot of it has to do with trading. You know, I think trades make a massive difference. You've got to have that solid starting squad and you've got to get most of the rookie seniors, people in mid prices, right, and have some decent premiums. If you pick four or five premiums that fail, you're in big trouble. But if you've got most of it okay, you can recover and you can fix some stuff.
00:36:08
Speaker
And if you trade well and you picked the right players at the right time, it just catapults you, I think. Well, that's what happened to me anyway. So yeah, I think as I reflect on it, back in your gut, being aggressive worked for me. And when I didn't, it probably didn't work for me as well.
00:36:29
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, you're dead right. And on the flip side, sometimes it doesn't work. So in 2021, I was the same. I was aggressive and got ahead of the comp. But this year, the times I was aggressive, when I offloaded Nick Martin early, he put a big ton on my head. When I offloaded Daikos early, he put a big ton on my head. So it doesn't always work, but I think you are right.
00:36:50
Speaker
If you just want to play this game competitively, then playing it safe is definitely sort of the way to go. If you're just happy to have a semi-decent rank and push league. But if you do want to win the comp and be right up there at the end, you've got to be not afraid to do things a little bit differently and be aggressive and really target players that maybe some other coaches aren't thinking about. And by the sounds of it, that's exactly what you did.
00:37:15
Speaker
It's been very good to sort of reflect on that and I'm definitely going to take some of that stuff, what you've said and listen over it and try and build into next year because I'm due to bounce back. So, we're talking a little bit about it off air. So, you know, you've been off doing your NBA stuff. You haven't really been looking at any AFL fantasy. So, you reckon you might not play this year. You think one Hilux is enough. I don't need to chase the two that Selby has. So, what's going on there? Oh, look.
00:37:44
Speaker
It would be a dream to go back to back, wouldn't it? But everyone knows the reality of doing that is so hard. And even if I did give it a crack, there's no guarantees I'm not even going to come in the top 100. It's not to say I can't, but you just don't know, right? Every year is a different year. And I think you can see clearly one year and what you do one year, like you said, doesn't work for you the next year. And I think because I got in front so early, it became a really
00:38:13
Speaker
It was like a holding pattern for me for 15 weeks and it was quite, like I doubt with it okay, but obviously it consumes time, I've got a wife, I've got kids. It consumes, even though you might be with them, it still consumes where your mind's at. And you can't be as present with your kids, you can't be as present with your wife all the time. So it's a sacrifice to do it. I suppose if you want to be great at anything, there is a sacrifice. So I'm just weighing up whether
00:38:44
Speaker
I actually just take a year off, maybe go on a few pods, have a bit of fun chatting online with you guys, and just stay in touch by helping a couple of close friends with their teams, and then get back and put next year. That's sort of where I'm leaning, just so that I can give everybody a bit more time and that sort of thing. So yeah, never say never yet, but that's the way I'm leaning in a moment.
00:39:08
Speaker
Yeah, it's definitely a pretty noble thing to do as someone with a young family as well. It can definitely relate with the all-consuming part of it and you're right, it does take a lot to do what we do and it does take a fair chunk of your life.
00:39:24
Speaker
Just on that then, though, just before we go, I'm a little bit conscious of time. You must have had a little bit of a thought, you know, you are still on Twitter and stuff. So, you know, what are some of the who are some of the players that we could potentially look at in 2023 or, you know, underpriced players or who do you think is primed to have a big season? Just give us just give us a little bit before we sort of wrap up. I'll do my best, mate. I actually haven't really given it a lot of thought at all. Obviously, you see a few things go through your feed. That's about it.
00:39:54
Speaker
or actually saw today some images of Timmy Taranto winning the time trial, I think, down at Richmond. He looks super fit. I've always been a big fan of Timmy. I was obviously bringing him in last year and didn't really pay off fully. But he's a forward, even as a Cheaper, he looks set out of a massive U. I think that's a no-brainer. I don't think I'm telling anybody any secrets there. I really do like LDU.
00:40:22
Speaker
I like the way he plays, so it'd be interesting, and I quite like Simpkins, so it'd be interesting to see how they look under Clarkson, but I'd be tempted to start one of those guys because I just like the way they play, the good fantasy players. I think the rucks will play a big role this year, how we do go on the rucks, I haven't thought through it yet. So yeah, what's your thoughts on the rucks at the moment?
00:40:48
Speaker
Yeah, look, I'm a big set and forget man and I think potentially that's the way I'll look to go again. It's a strategy that I love to use and I think it, you know, with Darcy now playing with Jackson, we don't know how that's going to line up and with Gorn now playing with Grundy, we don't know how that's going to line up.
00:41:08
Speaker
One thing I do know is that Rory Lobb being a freer man, Rory Lobb does not like playing in the ruck and the fact that he's gone to the Bulldogs I think just only enhances Tim English. I think Tim English will be that sort of 80% ruckman playing through the midfield and Lobb will just chop out. So I think English is the no-brainer and
00:41:25
Speaker
at this time of year it's easy to just lock in Roland Marshall as well. I think Roland Marshall, Sol Rock has shown that he can put up some monster scores so that's where I'm at at this point in time but we all know that can change and all it would take is for you know a Tom Campbell to be named around one or St Kilda decide that they want to play a Jewel Rock set up under Ross Lyon and and that could all change so nothing set in stone but I think you know those two
00:41:49
Speaker
those two players present value while also being potentially the two top ruckmen in the line with the way the trades have gone. So that's, that's where I'm sort of going at the moment. Yeah. I like both those picks. Obviously I picked English last year and I even looked at Marshall early. So yeah, I reckon they're great picks and still super early, but it's a good way to kind of start your thinking in the rucks. I reckon and see what else presents itself.
00:42:13
Speaker
Yeah, who knows? I'm sure there'll be a Braden Proust type come up and I'll be stubborn again and I won't pick him and he'll put some big scores on my head again. But anyway, Matt, thank you so much for joining me today, Matt. I know it was a real casual conversation, but I'm really grateful that you took the time out and good luck with everything. And, you know, if you don't play this year, you know, have fun on the podcast and chatting with the community and who knows? We'll see what happens later on.
00:42:39
Speaker
Yeah, man. I appreciate that. And yeah, if you're going to do a few of these and I'm not playing, I'm more than happy to come on because I can give unbiased views if anyone wants to listen. Perfect, mate. All right. Take it easy. You too. Thanks, man.