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Daily Newcastle: Champions League Qualification: Pipe Dream or Cakewalk?
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Iain and Michael race through each of the top ten's remaining games and estimate their final points total. Are we really one of the favourites for qualification, or is it just us looking through our black and white glasses?
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Transcript
Introduction and Guest
00:00:11
Global Sports Podcast Network
Hello and welcome to The Daily Newcastle. My name's Ian Mackay. I am the host and I've got one guest with me tonight. We're going to, or this morning, depends on your listening, doesn't it? I'm joined by Michael Graneslaw.
00:00:25
Global Sports Podcast Network
How are you doing, Michael?
00:00:27
Michael
I'm doing very well. Thank you very much, Ian. How about yourself?
00:00:30
Global Sports Podcast Network
Yes, doing very
Champions League Qualification Prospects
00:00:31
Global Sports Podcast Network
well. Wondering why we gave ourselves all of that mental arithmetic to do on our time off. and Because what we've chosen to talk about tonight...
00:00:37
Michael
Yeah.
00:00:40
Global Sports Podcast Network
Following on from last night's discussion, a really question is is qualifying for the Champions League, are we really justified in being favourites, one of the favourites to do that?
00:00:54
Global Sports Podcast Network
So we thought it would be useful, I think we hinted last night, we thought it would be useful to have a look at the run-ins of all of our Champions League rivals to try and assess what the results were going to be and what the final points tallies were going to be.
00:00:54
Michael
yeah
00:01:10
Global Sports Podcast Network
I think it's fair to say Michael, without even knowing what the details of your results are, that we've had some really interesting results in doing that.
00:01:18
Michael
Oh, 100%.
00:01:18
Global Sports Podcast Network
A little bit crazy.
00:01:18
Michael
Yeah.
Arsenal's Performance and Predictions
00:01:20
Global Sports Podcast Network
Now, rather than just sound like final score nonstop and go from week to week with a whole list of football results, what I think we're going to do is to take each team and examine quickly
00:01:31
Michael
yeah
00:01:39
Global Sports Podcast Network
the games that they have left. I don't know if you've checked, Michael. I have been able to be consistent in results between teams that are both in our rivals. I haven't haven't assessed those separately. So, for example, if I've assessed that Newcastle will win 1-0 away at Arsenal, that is the result I've included in Newcastle's points tally and Arsenal's points tally.
00:02:03
Michael
Yeah, same.
00:02:04
Global Sports Podcast Network
So I have been consistent that way. Good, good. So the maths should all work up anyway. and
00:02:09
Michael
Yeah.
00:02:10
Global Sports Podcast Network
Let's dive straight into it. think it's fair to say we're expecting Liverpool to to accumulate enough points to be able to maintain this fantastic lead that they've built up already.
00:02:22
Global Sports Podcast Network
So we're not counting Liverpool as one of our Champions League qualification rivals.
00:02:23
Michael
Yeah, 100%.
00:02:29
Michael
Yeah, it's guaranteed.
00:02:29
Global Sports Podcast Network
However, Well, I think that if you look at your Optus stats and all those clever computers, that they've got Arsenal with a 99.8% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
00:02:41
Global Sports Podcast Network
But they could do it in fifth place, of course. and So and given given Arsenal's less impressive set of results in recent weeks, I've included those as our rivals.
00:02:44
Michael
Yeah.
00:02:54
Global Sports Podcast Network
In fact, our rivals is really Arsenal all of the way down to... Bournemouth in 10th place. And yet you're going to say to me, but look, Brentford are in really good form and they're 11th and Palace are in really good form and they're 12th, which is true.
00:03:03
Michael
Yeah. Yeah.
00:03:10
Global Sports Podcast Network
But I think it's going to take a phenomenal effort on their part for them to make up the points that they are behind the teams in the top five at the moment. So why don't we dive straight in to have a look at the Arsenal games?
00:03:20
Michael
yeah
00:03:26
Global Sports Podcast Network
They've got... Quick add, they've got four home games left and five away, or the other way around. In fact, they've got five home games left and four away.
00:03:37
Global Sports Podcast Network
Shall we just go? I went for Arsenal because I think they're being ropey. I know Saka's coming back, but they don't have much of a front three.
00:03:42
Michael
yeah
00:03:45
Global Sports Podcast Network
They have struggled recently, other than there and putting seven past PSV, was it?
00:03:46
Michael
No.
00:03:52
Global Sports Podcast Network
Some poor Dutch people anyway.
00:03:52
Michael
Okay. Yeah, there's always one outlier. Forrest put seven past bren not branford Brighton. so yeah And they're not they're not the greatest scoring team either.
00:04:03
Michael
So we can safely say that you know our Arsenal are decent.
00:04:05
Global Sports Podcast Network
That's true.
00:04:08
Michael
Their Premier League form hasn't really matched that 7-0 victory. But to be honest, I have kind of been a bit favourable to the Arsenal. I don't know about you.
00:04:17
Global Sports Podcast Network
Have you?
00:04:18
Michael
Yeah.
00:04:19
Global Sports Podcast Network
I think I've got them improving as Saka beds in more. I know Saka's coming back tomorrow night, isn't he, for the Fulham game?
00:04:24
Michael
Yeah.
00:04:26
Global Sports Podcast Network
But he's going to be a bit, a bit, a little bit rusty.
00:04:27
Michael
Yeah.
00:04:30
Global Sports Podcast Network
coming back after three months out.
00:04:31
Michael
Yeah.
00:04:33
Michael
agree.
00:04:34
Global Sports Podcast Network
I don't know what happened to Habit. Habit is out for the season, isn't he? But Martinelli has back in the squad.
00:04:38
Michael
Uh, he's out for a bit. I'm not sure the length, but yeah.
00:04:41
Global Sports Podcast Network
Right. So, well, for my Arsenal review, I have thought that they've got some tough games coming up. They've got some gimmies as well.
00:04:53
Michael
Yeah.
00:04:54
Global Sports Podcast Network
And I've gone for a very, very boring three wins, three draws, three losses before the end of
Predictions for Rivals' Matches
00:04:59
Global Sports Podcast Network
the season for them.
00:04:59
Michael
o Ooh.
00:05:00
Global Sports Podcast Network
Yeah, I've got them running through their results.
00:05:01
Michael
Yeah.
00:05:03
Global Sports Podcast Network
I've got drawing at home against Fulham tomorrow, mainly because I heard that they haven't beaten Fulham in the last three games that they've played them.
00:05:07
Michael
Okay.
00:05:11
Michael
Three, yeah. They've been very good for them against Arsenal.
00:05:13
Global Sports Podcast Network
i've I've got them drawing at Everton, because Everton are a difficult team to play, as we know, and they're actually in better form than normal.
00:05:23
Michael
Yeah, you agree.
00:05:24
Global Sports Podcast Network
i am I've got them losing at home to Brentford. because you're all scared to be so much about what a good away team Brentford were when we we were to play them on Wednesday.
00:05:28
Michael
Oof!
00:05:34
Global Sports Podcast Network
Why not? Brentford's just the sort of place that they'd go and win, isn't it? But then I've got them beating Ipswich away from home, drawing with Bournemouth, losing at Liverpool, losing at home to Newcastle, of course, because we've beaten them three times already this season, and then finishing quite strongly, winning at Southampton, and then beating Palace on the last day of the season.
00:05:38
Michael
Yeah.
00:05:50
Michael
Whoa.
00:05:55
Global Sports Podcast Network
All of which, for me, gives Arsenal 12 more points and a final total of 70 points for the season.
00:06:03
Michael
o Yeah, I'll be honest.
00:06:05
Global Sports Podcast Network
Now, what are you doing?
00:06:07
Michael
I feel like you've been... We've got some that are very similar. There's a little few areas where i think maybe you've been harsh on Arsenal. And to be honest, that I can't blame you. the yeah If you go off what they've been like against Newcastle, they've been dreadful.
00:06:20
Michael
but I do have them beating Fulham all runs have to come to an end and I think Sacker will come off the bench tomorrow it'll be that inspirational push that the Emirates needs to finally make some noise and still get the they'll get the win over Fulham I agree that they'll draw against Everton Goodison Park David Moyes back it's always going to be a tough game I did have them beating Brentford by three goals to one, beating Ipswich as well, as you said.
00:06:47
Michael
Beating Palace, that'll be rescheduled as it stands. That is supposed to be on the day of their FA Cup semi-final, Palaces. That looks like it'll be rescheduled for basically in between the 10th and the 18th of May.
00:06:54
Global Sports Podcast Network
Yeah.
00:07:00
Michael
So do have Arsenal picking up points there. Drawn with Bournemouth, as you said. Losing to Liverpool. but beating Newcastle at the Emirates.
00:07:09
Global Sports Podcast Network
yeah
00:07:11
Michael
I think, as I mentioned at the start, every good run has to end, and I think we'll, spoiler, be in an okay enough position that we won't be desperate for three points at the Emirates.
00:07:24
Michael
And then, well, I was never going to predict them to lose to Southampton. But they end up, for me, on 78 points. So eight more than what you're predicting.
00:07:33
Global Sports Podcast Network
seventeen and eight 78 points. Yeah, that's well quite a way out there. But then it sounds like it, but we're only two or three results different. What about Forrest?
00:07:43
Michael
Yeah.
00:07:45
Global Sports Podcast Network
i think I was expecting Forrest to drop off.
00:07:45
Michael
So
00:07:49
Michael
a hundred percent, Sam.
00:07:49
Global Sports Podcast Network
and yet And yet, when I've gone through the the games, I haven't made them drop off at all, really. They're doing pretty well. and Right, I have Forrest beating Manchester United this week.
00:08:03
Michael
Sam?
00:08:04
Global Sports Podcast Network
but drawing at Villa, drawing at home to Everton, because again, I think they're a really stubborn, nasty nasty team.
00:08:06
Michael
Yeah, Sam.
00:08:09
Michael
Okay.
00:08:12
Global Sports Podcast Network
I've got them winning at Spurs, drawing at home with City.
00:08:12
Michael
Mm-hmm.
Newcastle's Key Matches
00:08:18
Global Sports Podcast Network
Another team that loses at home to Brentford.
00:08:18
Michael
Okay.
00:08:23
Global Sports Podcast Network
and Then beating Leicester, winning at West Ham, and in the last game of the season, drawing with Chelsea. All of which gives them 16 more points onto the 54 they already have.
00:08:34
Global Sports Podcast Network
Another team finishing on 70 points for me.
00:08:39
Michael
Ooh, now i've I've gone just...
00:08:40
Global Sports Podcast Network
Oh, very exciting.
00:08:41
Michael
A little bit different on my end. I've carved gone 73 points in total for Nottingham Forest. And the differences are, well, I had them beating Man United, who doesn't, drawing with Villa, same as you.
00:08:52
Michael
But then I actually have them beating Everton, two goals to nil. I will say these have been made after finding out that Nuno Espirito Santo completely duped me. If anyone listened to yesterday's pod, I was so excited that Chris Wood was out for the rest of the season. and Less than 24 hours later, Nuno saying, oh yeah, he's actually in pretty good condition.
00:09:11
Michael
Cheers. They haven't gone around telling everyone at work that we're going make Champions League because of it, but it's fine. I've got them drawing against Tottenham because I do think they'll improve towards the end of the season.
00:09:23
Michael
Beating Brentford and then beating Palace away from home. to Arguably their toughest game. Smashing Leicester. Drawing with West Ham at the London Stadium.
00:09:33
Michael
and then drawing with Chelsea on the final day. Because again, think Champions League will be secured for them. Little spoiler of 73 points instead of just the 70.
00:09:46
Global Sports Podcast Network
Right. and Interesting. i scribbled Palace out, because but I haven't but added that one back in, so I didn't give them i didn't give them anything for the Palace game, but I did have them did have them losing 2-1 when I looked at it, so it wouldn't have made any difference to my total.
00:10:01
Global Sports Podcast Network
Right. m Chelsea.
00:10:05
Michael
oh Oh, shadow.
00:10:07
Global Sports Podcast Network
Chelsea didn't. I thought Chelsea would be doing a lot better, but they've got some tough games, Chelsea. Running down mine, I've got a draw with Spurs at home.
00:10:12
Michael
Yeah. Yeah. Okay.
00:10:16
Michael
Yeah. yeah
00:10:17
Global Sports Podcast Network
where Away at Brentford to get a draw. They beat Ipswich. They lose away at Fulham.
00:10:23
Michael
but okay
00:10:26
Global Sports Podcast Network
I've got them beating Everton at home. I've got them losing at home to Liverpool. I've got them losing away to Newcastle. I've got them beating Man Utd at home and then getting a draw at Forest on the last day of the season.
00:10:38
Global Sports Podcast Network
That's nine games. That gives them 12 points onto their 49, which gives them a total of 61.
00:10:39
Michael
Yeah.
00:10:47
Michael
Yeah. Oh, to be honest,
00:10:48
Global Sports Podcast Network
How did you get?
00:10:50
Michael
Chelsea are another one. I think they're nowhere near as good as what they should be, unfortunately, at the minute.
00:10:55
Global Sports Podcast Network
Correct.
00:10:55
Michael
And to be honest, I agree. I mentioned earlier, draw with Forrest. I think they'll beat Man United on the penultimate day. But before that, I've got them beating Spurs, just because I do think it'll take another couple of weeks for Spurs to really get and up into gear.
00:11:11
Michael
Losing... To Brentford. We love Brentford on this podcast, apparently. Beating Ipswich as per. Drawing with Fulham at Craven Cottage. Beating Everton just narrowly by two goals to one.
00:11:25
Michael
Drawing with Liverpool because that is always a horrible, horrible game and it does tend to end in a ball draw. And then I've got them losing, of
Challenging Schedules for Mid-table Teams
00:11:35
Michael
course, at St. James' Park, which gives them a grand total of 64 points for me.
00:11:42
Global Sports Podcast Network
64, where have you got that one That's the win against Tottenham, you said.
00:11:46
Michael
Yep, so we've got the...
00:11:46
Global Sports Podcast Network
losing Losing at Brentford. Did you say losing at Brentford?
00:11:51
Michael
Yes, they lose at Brentford, beat Ipswich, draw with Fulham.
00:11:52
Global Sports Podcast Network
So that's a point more. So that's two points more, yeah.
00:11:59
Michael
Beat in Everton.
00:12:00
Global Sports Podcast Network
Beating Everton? You gave them a draw against Liverpool, didn't you?
00:12:01
Michael
Yep.
00:12:04
Michael
Yep, draw against Liverpool.
00:12:06
Global Sports Podcast Network
Right, OK.
00:12:06
Michael
A loss against us, and then win against Man Utd, and draw on the final day against Nottingham Forest.
00:12:13
Global Sports Podcast Network
So that gives them 64. Yeah. We're not that far off.
00:12:16
Michael
Yes.
00:12:16
Global Sports Podcast Network
In fact, when you said that they're going to beat Everton I had 2-1 as well. There should be people to be writing this down. Got all of their accumulators and it gets sorted for the next nine weeks.
00:12:32
Michael
And then when none of them come in, you can subscribe to the podcast.
00:12:32
Global Sports Podcast Network
Look, I'm going to pause.
00:12:35
Michael
Yeah.
00:12:37
Global Sports Podcast Network
That's the top three. That's three, four and five. Sorry, two, three and four done. Let's pause.
00:12:42
Michael
yeah
00:12:43
Global Sports Podcast Network
Let's pause for this
00:12:44
Michael
okay
00:13:23
Global Sports Podcast Network
And welcome back to part two. We have been through Arsenal, Forrest and Chelsea. Part two. Michael, you can go first now on this part two with what a Man City doing for the rest of the season.
00:13:31
Michael
Beautiful.
00:13:35
Global Sports Podcast Network
Nine straight wins.
00:13:35
Michael
oh It wouldn't surprise anyone, to be honest. I do have them starting off with getting a little bit back into form. It's at home to Leicester, so maybe not. But midweek, I've got them winning quite considerably.
00:13:49
Michael
Beating Manchester United in the Manchester Derby. Beating Palace narrowly at home. Maybe I am going for nine straight wins.
00:13:56
Global Sports Podcast Network
Thank you.
00:13:59
Michael
But I've got them drawing with Everton at Goodison Park. Because I feel like that'll be a really tough game. Drawing with Aston Villa at the Etihad.
00:14:10
Michael
And then we go into with a a big win against Wolverhampton Wanderers. A win at St Mary's against Southampton. And then they play Bournemouth on the penultimate day and Fulham on the final day. I've got them drawing against Bournemouth.
00:14:26
Michael
So actually going unbeaten for the rest of the season, which now I say it. Sounds pretty dumb, but maybe they'll maybe they'll go for it. I've gave them too many draws, if I'm honest, thinking about it. But I can never see City losing.
00:14:39
Michael
And then on the final day, I feel like already said, but I've got them beating Fulham by two goals to one, which puts them 69 points. point
00:14:50
Global Sports Podcast Network
All right. 69 points. I couldn't quite spot where the differences were, Michael, as I was going through. i had them getting either them being held by Manchester United in the Manchester derby because Man U do seem to turn it on when they play against them.
00:15:03
Michael
Yeah. Unfortunately.
00:15:04
Michael
Yeah.
00:15:05
Global Sports Podcast Network
i agree with your Leicester win. I agree with your Palace win. I agree with your Everton draw.
00:15:11
Michael
Yeah.
00:15:11
Global Sports Podcast Network
Did you say a Forest draw? i had Forest drawing when I was doing the Forest results, so they get a point at Forest. I've got them beating Villa. I just think Villa, it might all get on top of Villa.
00:15:25
Global Sports Podcast Network
They've got this Champions League two games to play as well. They're still in the FA Cup.
00:15:29
Michael
yeah
00:15:30
Global Sports Podcast Network
There's a lot, a lot happening. Then, like you, I have a lovely run of wins against Wolves, Southampton. I've got a win against Bournemouth.
00:15:41
Global Sports Podcast Network
and a draw against Fulham, which is the other way around to what you've had. But it gives them, for me, 22 points. So they finish the third team that finishes on 70 points at the end of the season.
00:15:55
Michael
I was just actually going to add there you've added Nottingham Forest versus Man City in there that's the FA Cup on the 26th I
00:16:06
Global Sports Podcast Network
All right.
00:16:09
Michael
i don't think you've got Man City versus Villa
00:16:09
Global Sports Podcast Network
right You're right. have. Man City losing, sorry, winning at Villa 2-0.
00:16:17
Michael
Oh, so are we agreed on 69 points there?
00:16:18
Global Sports Podcast Network
But you're right. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. That means that the Forest game, that was a schoolboy error. But you know, with car trouble and doing all of this in 15 minutes, that's my excuse, I'm sticking to it.
Final Standings and European Qualifications
00:16:34
Global Sports Podcast Network
I think that would have give them 21 points and I'd be on 69 as well for them.
00:16:39
Michael
Well, there we go. Manchester City destined for 69 points.
00:16:40
Global Sports Podcast Network
which excellent.
00:16:43
Michael
You've heard it here first.
00:16:45
Global Sports Podcast Network
But I've also got to take, because I have got the city game in Forest's results, which I had as a draw. And like I said, did score the Palace game, but Forest lost it, so they got no points for that.
00:17:00
Global Sports Podcast Network
So my Forest will end on 69 points for me, which is very interesting.
00:17:05
Michael
as well. Oh
00:17:09
Michael
yeah.
00:17:10
Global Sports Podcast Network
Oh, God, I'm going to come across as a deluded Newcastle fan very soon.
00:17:15
Michael
When we've won every game.
00:17:15
Global Sports Podcast Network
Newcastle's results.
00:17:18
Global Sports Podcast Network
Newcastle's results, Michael.
00:17:19
Michael
Okay.
00:17:19
Global Sports Podcast Network
What do you think?
00:17:21
Michael
So I'll start off with the rescheduled game against Crystal Palace. I've gone for a 2-0 victory at St. James' Park. I think we were so poor at Selhurst.
00:17:29
Global Sports Podcast Network
Agreed?
00:17:32
Michael
I think Eddie Howell will want to rectify that and show that you know we are the better team. Then I've got us beating Brentford, as we mentioned on the pod yesterday. Beating Leicester at St.
00:17:43
Global Sports Podcast Network
Yep.
00:17:44
Michael
Mary's. Beating Man United, I'd say, at James' Park again.
00:17:47
Global Sports Podcast Network
yeah
00:17:49
Michael
And then I've got us losing at Villa Park. I think it'll be a repeat of what we saw a few years ago where we just weren't on it. And there one through Villa won 3-1. Us smashing Ipswich at St. James' Park. i think that could be our best game of the season, to be honest. Ipswich have really fallen off.
00:18:05
Michael
Drawing at the Amex against Brighton. beating Chelsea at St. James' Park, as mentioned earlier, losing, as mentioned earlier, to Arsenal, and then finishing off the season with a 2-0 victory against a team I've predicted everyone else to do horrible against, Everton, which would leave Newcastle on 69 points. Yep.
00:18:28
Global Sports Podcast Network
Right, interesting. Very close. I'm very close. I agree with Brentford, Leicester, Man U, Palace. I haven't gone for last year's out of the blue where we hammered Palace.
00:18:41
Global Sports Podcast Network
I don't know why. Because I'm um'm remembering 3-0 at home around Christmas this year and 5-1 at home opening game of the season whenever that was. And Tenali scored against Fela.
00:18:51
Michael
They're against Villa that all. Yeah.
00:18:53
Global Sports Podcast Network
Yeah, so I've gone for a 0-0 I think you're right.
00:18:57
Michael
Fair.
00:18:57
Global Sports Podcast Network
i think it will I think we will have a game where it doesn't all click, but i think i think we'll be on it by then. Yes, we hammer Ipswich.
00:19:05
Michael
Fair.
00:19:07
Global Sports Podcast Network
I had us losing a horrible, dirty 1-0 away at Brighton.
00:19:12
Michael
Yeah, i can't cut I can't cope with another defeat Brighton, I'm not going to lie.
00:19:17
Michael
Danny Welbeck, if he scores again, I might...
00:19:17
Global Sports Podcast Network
But then...
00:19:20
Global Sports Podcast Network
Hi.
00:19:21
Michael
and might be over. Hmm...
00:19:22
Global Sports Podcast Network
He's a lovely man. He's got such a lovely smile. And he's a grandfather now, you know. Oh, no, not quite. and Then we've got us hammering Chelsea 3-0, because we always do. I have got us winning 1-0 at Arsenal, because we've beaten them three times this year already, Michael.
00:19:37
Global Sports Podcast Network
And it might be, given the points totals at the end, it will still be really tight in the top five on that game. It could be really, really important. So I've given us three points there.
00:19:50
Global Sports Podcast Network
And I, on the final game of the season, because I think that win at Arsenal will have clinched Champions League, I have got us having a horrible scabby one-all with Everton. A little bit like that goalless draw little bit like that goal of stra against Leicester after the wonderful
00:20:00
Michael
oh
Closing Remarks and Future Plans
00:20:06
Global Sports Podcast Network
win against Brighton when we got into the Champions League the last time.
00:20:08
Michael
Yeah. It was horrible, that game.
00:20:10
Global Sports Podcast Network
All of that, I think, tops down to 23 points out of the remaining nine games. that's can't be right can it hang on one two three four but one two three four five six seven eight nine oh yeah because we've got ten games it's the remaining ten games isn't it yeah 23 points which will which put us on 70 points now the weird thing is that was a four-way tie I had of teams on 70 points but you just maybe not you just maybe not one of Man City and Forest which
00:20:23
Michael
games.
00:20:29
Michael
Yeah. We've got palace on top yet.
00:20:37
Michael
o Ooh.
00:20:42
Michael
Until I ruined it.
00:20:48
Michael
And none of them.
00:20:50
Global Sports Podcast Network
puts us level on points with Arsenal in second or third depending on goal difference but hey let's not prejudge there may be some teams from further back that can even get get even better Brighton where have you gone with Brighton
00:20:53
Michael
Ooh.
00:21:05
Michael
Right. Brighton are one of those where i think I think they will drop off, if I'm honest. But do start them off quite nicely with a draw against Aston Villa at home. And then i think they'll lose against Crystal Palace at Selhurst.
00:21:20
Michael
Beat Leicester. because I think pretty much everyone's going to. Drawing away to Brentford, which is, to be honest, a really good point. Beating West Ham at home. Drawing, as mentioned with Newcastle United.
00:21:33
Michael
Beating Wolverhampton Wanderers away. and then drawing with Liverpool and finishing off the season with a draw against Tottenham. So I say they've died off. I think i've only going to say the they've lost twice in that run.
00:21:47
Michael
But I think it's going to be one of those where they struggle to win games, even if they're the better team and end up drawing quite a few.
00:21:55
Global Sports Podcast Network
Right, i I have them having a very disappointing finish to the season. I had them beating Villa. I'm not sure Villa are a team away from home, to be honest.
00:22:02
Michael
Nope.
00:22:06
Global Sports Podcast Network
Much of a team away from home. And then I had them beating Villa but losing at Palace. That Palace-Brighton is he's a bit of a hot derby, isn't it?
00:22:15
Michael
Tough.
00:22:18
Michael
Yeah, it's massive down there for some reason.
00:22:18
Global Sports Podcast Network
at
00:22:21
Global Sports Podcast Network
Obviously, the a twenty three derby.
00:22:21
Michael
Because they're not actually that close.
00:22:24
Global Sports Podcast Network
They're not. They're either end of the A23, though. That is true.
00:22:27
Michael
True, yeah.
00:22:27
Global Sports Podcast Network
happen
00:22:29
Global Sports Podcast Network
Yeah, they they beat Leicester. I had them losing at Brentford. I had them beating West Ham. I had them beating Newcastle. And then I gave them a point away at Wolves, losing at home to Liverpool, and a point away at Tottenham as you picked.
00:22:40
Michael
yeah
00:22:43
Global Sports Podcast Network
So not miles away. All of which gives them 14 points from the last nine games, added onto their 47 points, puts them onto 61.
00:22:46
Michael
No, not at all.
00:22:55
Global Sports Podcast Network
So that puts them level on points level and points with Chelsea.
00:22:56
Michael
It's exactly the same as me. actually
00:23:01
Global Sports Podcast Network
So in my thing. Okay. and Right, I'm going to pause there, Michael, because I'm going to listen to your dulcet tones once more as you give us the new version of the Zencastrad 3rd, because we can't go old school too much, it stops being old school.
00:23:08
Michael
Okay.
00:23:18
Michael
Well, that's what you think.
00:23:21
Michael
what what was that and What was that laugh? o Here at the Global Sports Podcast Network, we've spent a lot of time selecting our delivery platform. And Zencaster came out a clear winner.
00:23:31
Michael
With 4K video recording from your phone and AI editing that automatically removes all those ums, ahs and whatever sound I just made. It's super easy to start a podcast that sounds great and is delivered efficiently.
00:23:44
Michael
If you're ready to tell your story, check out the link in the show description to learn more about Zencastr. And I've just realised, because I put it in the advert, you can't now cut out that noise that I made.
00:23:56
Michael
So, sorry listeners.
00:23:57
Global Sports Podcast Network
and so That's what Jimmy Carr sounds like if somebody punches him in the throat just as he's starting one of his laughs.
00:24:06
Global Sports Podcast Network
yeah i wonder for might
00:24:06
Michael
I laugh on an in that time.
00:24:08
Global Sports Podcast Network
I wonder if our American listeners know who Jimmy Carr is. Probably not. yeah Anyway, right.
00:24:14
Michael
Probably not, and don't Google them.
00:24:17
Global Sports Podcast Network
Don't Google him. Back to the final points totals for our Champions League rivals. Fulham, I have got... A draw tomorrow with Arsenal.
00:24:28
Global Sports Podcast Network
I've got them losing at home to Liverpool, losing away at Bournemouth, beating Chelsea, beating Southampton, but losing at Aston Villa.
00:24:28
Michael
Yeah.
00:24:31
Michael
Mm-hmm.
00:24:36
Michael
Okay.
00:24:39
Global Sports Podcast Network
And then the horrible, horrible game. Again, don't want to see this on match of the day. One all against Everton. two Two away at Brentford, which might be a lovely game. And then drawing two all with City in the last game of the season.
00:24:52
Global Sports Podcast Network
And all of that, All of that, because I think they've got... they've look at this Look at this next four games they've got. Arsenal, Liverpool, Bournemouth, Chelsea.
00:25:01
Michael
Hard, isn't that
00:25:01
Global Sports Podcast Network
I've given them four points out of the next four games, and that actually is a fairly decent return for those matches.
00:25:06
Michael
it?
00:25:07
Global Sports Podcast Network
In total, they get 10 more points to add on to their 45, which only lifts them up to 55. So I think they'll remain in the top 10, but I don't think they're challenging.
00:25:18
Michael
Put on chest.
00:25:19
Global Sports Podcast Network
I don't think they're challenging for Champions League. What do you think, Michael?
00:25:22
Michael
No. I'm inclined to agree. I actually have them down on 52 points in total. I agree. oh i mentioned We mentioned Arsenal Liverpool. think they'll draw against Liverpool lose to Arsenal.
00:25:34
Michael
I have them losing to Bournemouth. I have them drawing 1-1 with Chelsea, as you said.
00:25:36
Global Sports Podcast Network
Yeah.
00:25:39
Michael
Beating Southampton, as as everyone's going to. Losing away to Aston Villa. Drawing at home 1-1, as you said, with Everton. Hopefully, as we say, that's not a match of the day.
00:25:51
Michael
Brentford 2-2. And then finishing with, yeah, finishing off.
00:25:53
Global Sports Podcast Network
what im
00:25:56
Michael
It could have been 2-2 with Man City, but instead I've got City winning by two goals to one. So that puts Fulham, as I mentioned, on 52, which, just like you, has them in 10th position for me.
00:26:11
Global Sports Podcast Network
Great. Now, these are the two. These last two have been... Well, I fear these two, although I'm not sure that it's right to fear Villa, given all the extra games that they're going to have to play.
00:26:26
Global Sports Podcast Network
I mean, they've got three more matches to put into two months, even if they get knocked out of all the Cubs straight away.
00:26:26
Michael
yeah
00:26:31
Global Sports Podcast Network
And I don't think they will. and Right, Villa. Lose at Brighton this week.
00:26:36
Michael
Yeah.
00:26:37
Global Sports Podcast Network
Get a draw at home to Forest. Win at Southampton.
00:26:39
Michael
Yeah. Yeah.
00:26:41
Global Sports Podcast Network
Have a draw with Newcastle. Have a draw away at Palace. Are beaten by City. Beat Fulham at home. Lose away at Bournemouth.
00:26:50
Michael
yeah
00:26:51
Global Sports Podcast Network
Beat Spurs at home. Beat Man U at home. So quite a flourish to finish with.
00:26:57
Michael
yeah
00:26:57
Global Sports Podcast Network
All that would give them 15 points. On top of their 45. Takes it to 60 points. Not enough really. how have you How do you see them going?
00:27:06
Michael
No, not quite. I've gone a little bit better, if I'm honest. I've started them off with a 2-2 draw, as mentioned, with Brighton.
00:27:17
Michael
A 2-2 draw with Forrest. A lot goals.
00:27:20
Global Sports Podcast Network
Yeah. Right.
00:27:21
Michael
A massive win at St Mary's. A win against Newcastle, as mentioned. I think that'll turn the the tide for them a little bit. I think they'll draw at the Etihad against Manchester City. As mentioned, beat Fulham.
00:27:34
Michael
and then go on to draw at the Vitality Stadium against Bournemouth, and then beat Tottenham on the second last game of the season, and draw on the final day at Old Trafford, which would give them a total of 62 points on my end.
00:27:46
Global Sports Podcast Network
right
00:27:50
Global Sports Podcast Network
I have just counted 10 games and that is because that' is that is because I've got Villa playing Palace and that's a cup match, isn't it, for now game.
00:28:02
Global Sports Podcast Network
you take
00:28:03
Michael
Yes, it is. Yes. It's the one that replaces.
00:28:05
Global Sports Podcast Network
So I'm going to take that point off that I gave them for the draw away at Palace.
00:28:06
Michael
Yeah. Makes sense.
00:28:12
Global Sports Podcast Network
Clearly that is a penalty win to get to the final in the semi-finals for anyone who's making notes for their betting in the next couple of months.
00:28:20
Michael
Hey, we've already previewed it.
00:28:20
Global Sports Podcast Network
14 out of the 45 means that theyd they'd end up on 59, which again is not really threatening the upper echelons of the Champions League qualifiers.
00:28:29
Michael
no
00:28:30
Global Sports Podcast Network
Bournemouth, however, they have a fantastic end to the season, Michael.
00:28:33
Michael
Oh.
00:28:36
Michael
Mm-hmm.
00:28:38
Global Sports Podcast Network
I think they beat Ipswich, they win away at West Ham, they win at home against Fulham, they win away at Palace, they win at
00:28:40
Michael
Agreed. Agreed. Agreed.
00:28:48
Michael
Oh, disagreed.
00:28:49
Global Sports Podcast Network
They win at home against Manchester United.
00:28:52
Global Sports Podcast Network
They have a really entertaining one-all draw with Arsenal. and arsen
00:28:52
Michael
Yep.
00:28:57
Michael
Identical is mine, yeah.
00:28:57
Global Sports Podcast Network
I think they they beat Villa 3-1. I think they lose away at Man City 2-1 because it was 2-1 yesterday, wasn't it? And then they stuff Leicester at the end on the last game of the season.
00:29:10
Global Sports Podcast Network
But what a fabulous that is. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, winning seven of their last nine games. They end up with 22 points from that nine games. onto their 44 which puts them on 66 points.
00:29:22
Michael
six 66. Wow. And that puts them above Chelsea for you, does it?
00:29:24
Global Sports Podcast Network
Still not quite... that puts them into sixth place for me.
00:29:30
Michael
Oh, how's that?
00:29:31
Global Sports Podcast Network
So given the little tweaksy bits I've got, my final league table has Liverpool running it of course. I've got Arsenal and Newcastle tied 70 points.
00:29:46
Global Sports Podcast Network
That just depends really on how that Arsenal and Newcastle game goes. If that's a draw, Arsenal will finish ahead of Newcastle.
00:29:50
Michael
Yeah.
00:29:55
Global Sports Podcast Network
then have Forest and City tied on 69 points. And they don't actually have to play each other anymore, do they?
00:30:04
Global Sports Podcast Network
So that depends on goal difference.
00:30:05
Michael
No. No.
00:30:08
Global Sports Podcast Network
So fourth and fifth for Forest and City.
00:30:13
Global Sports Podcast Network
I've got Bournemouth on 66 finishing six and I've got Chelsea and Brighton on 61 points finishing 7th equal.
00:30:16
Michael
Oh.
00:30:25
Global Sports Podcast Network
Chelsea don't play Brighton so there's not there's not a playoff match which is where the result could change it. And then we've got Villa on 59 Fulham on 55 which and fullulham on fifty five which Which, to be honest, with all of the wins I've given Brentford might mean that Brentford could come up and pinch 10th place. But hey, we're not going to go into all of that.
00:30:47
Michael
No. work Otherwise, we'd be talking about Man United getting relegated.
00:30:48
Global Sports Podcast Network
How was your final...
00:30:51
Michael
But mine, as same as yours, finishes top two Liverpool. They would have 91 points on the ones that I've done. Arsenal, 78.
00:31:03
Michael
Third, Nottingham Forest with 73. I did think that if Chris Wood was out, that would drop. Not significantly, but they could easily lose six points just from missing that star striker. But in fourth place, I have Manchester City, who would finish above the team in fifth on goal difference.
00:31:23
Michael
They have 69 points. In fifth... and fifth It would be Newcastle United with a goal difference of 20, but still less than Manchester City, finishing also on 69 points.
00:31:34
Michael
Chelsea are then in sixth for me with finishing on 64 points. I do think they'll get a but little bit better when Nicholas Jackson is back. I do think he is a miss, but unfortunately it just won't be enough.
00:31:46
Michael
And then really tightly, actually, there's three points separating sixth and ninth. Bournemouth in 7th with 63, Aston Villa in 8th with 62, and Brighton in 9th with 61, and Fulham sitting there in 10th on 52. So Fulham to drop out of it completely, but then Chelsea, Bournemouth, and even potentially Villa to still get a European spot.
00:32:11
Global Sports Podcast Network
I'm just trying to write mine out. It's pretty, in fact, it's only my happy, well, I've got Bournemouth finishing ahead of Chelsea. That's one of our differences.
00:32:22
Global Sports Podcast Network
That would give Bournemouth a Europa League place, wouldn't it?
00:32:22
Michael
Yeah.
00:32:28
Global Sports Podcast Network
But then I think if five qualify for the Champions League, Bournemouth and Chelsea would get the Europa League places, whether they finish sixth or seventh.
00:32:28
Michael
Yeah.
00:32:41
Global Sports Podcast Network
Although, does chelsea if Chelsea win this match,
00:32:46
Michael
Conference league. They'll get into the Europa.
00:32:47
Global Sports Podcast Network
conference league, they get a Europa League.
00:32:49
Michael
Yeah.
00:32:50
Global Sports Podcast Network
Do they get into the Europa League anyway, or and that drops further down?
00:32:55
Michael
No, so if they I believe if they win the Conference League, the position for finishing sixth will go to someone else in the league, so it'll go down to another place.
00:33:06
Michael
Obviously, the FA Cup, you could also see Manchester City or Nottingham Forest win that, which would see does that because that one go to the league, which means we could see...
00:33:17
Michael
Based off my table, it would be Chelsea, Bournemouth and Aston Villa all in the Europa Conference League. and But you could also, yeah know, it's one of those where I think up to 11 positions in England could be in Europe next season.
00:33:32
Michael
It's very unlikely, but I think it would also require Arsenal to finish outside of the top five and then win the Champions League, which is obviously never going to happen.
00:33:42
Michael
But there's so many positions that could be up for grabs in Europe. And I'm just glad that Newcastle are, I would say, I was going to say the only team, but let's be honest, Liverpool are guaranteed it as well.
00:33:54
Michael
The only guaranteed team to be in Europe next season as it stands is Newcastle. And for me, it's just a bit of a sigh of relief right now because we can get Champions League, but at least we're nowhere there.
00:34:07
Global Sports Podcast Network
I am gratified by the fact that you've got Newcastle in fifth, but five points clear of Chelsea in sixth. So there's a little bit of a little bit of wiggle room in those results that we've picked.
00:34:17
Michael
Yeah. 100%.
00:34:20
Michael
and some
00:34:21
Global Sports Podcast Network
And to still be able to get Champions League, even with the one or two banana skins that Kevin is very fond of pointing out, will happen. We will lose. We will. We will lose.
00:34:33
Global Sports Podcast Network
Everybody's going to lose, so They're all playing each other.
00:34:34
Michael
I will add, yeah, I will add, if i change I've just checked there and changed the result.
00:34:34
Global Sports Podcast Network
That's the whole point.
00:34:40
Michael
If Chelsea beat Newcastle at St. James' Park, that then turns to Chelsea finishing fifth. So it's a big gap, but it all depends on that one game at that point. I mean, it's at St. James' Park, so I'm very confident we do win, but even a five-point gap can go in just one game, which is insane.
00:35:02
Global Sports Podcast Network
Well, it is, and and that just shows the yeah futility of what we've just done, given that there's still nine games to go, and you have eight points between fourth and tenth.
00:35:16
Michael
Yeah, that is insane, actually.
00:35:16
Global Sports Podcast Network
My word. I thought this was going to make me feel more more confident about us getting through and relaxed, but we can tick off all of these scores and know whether when our predictions are starting to go wrong if we can be bothered.
00:35:31
Global Sports Podcast Network
Well, I'm going to be bothered. It's an exciting time. It's got to start. It's got to start on Wednesday at home to Brentford. We've already beaten them 3-1. Let's beat them 3-1 again.
00:35:43
Global Sports Podcast Network
Michael, are we on? Is it me and you that's on with the Brentford guys tomorrow for the crossover podcast?
00:35:49
Michael
Yes, I've sent a message out. We just need to get things confirmed on a time, but hopefully Wednesday morning there'll be a podcast out for everyone.
00:35:58
Global Sports Podcast Network
Lovely. With that lovely news that me and Michael are going to do three podcasts in a row together, you lucky, lucky listeners.
00:36:05
Michael
Of course.
00:36:07
Global Sports Podcast Network
I'm going to leave you, bid you farewell. Hope you've enjoyed that. Hope you've tried to pick the maths through. Honestly, my head is spinning now. That many that many little addition sums in such a short pace of time. i need to lie down.
00:36:20
Global Sports Podcast Network
We'll see you the next time, hopefully on the Crossover Podcast.
00:36:20
Michael
Need an accountant.
00:36:24
Global Sports Podcast Network
Thanks, Michael. See you soon.