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EPISODE 66 - Patriots clinch the AFC EAST!. Diggs???
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Introduction and Patriots News Day
00:00:00
Savage Boston
Alright welcome back to the Savage Boston Podcast. I'm here, I'm Scott, your host of the pod. I'm here with my co-host, we got Snooty Boston on Twitter, and my other regular co-host, Brett, the OG crew here. And we got just just a lot going on, man. This is like...
00:00:18
Savage Boston
don't know. One of the busier news days the last little while for the Patriots. I mean, aside from the team itself, just an absolutely massive news day. feel like we got you got to start with digs.
00:00:31
Savage Boston
ah The news drop today, you have
Stefan Diggs Allegations: Team's Stance and Implications
00:00:33
Savage Boston
to start with it. So Stefan digs for anyone listening who I assume anyone listening this has probably heard this news, but Stefan digs with, I guess like felony assault allegations, uh,
00:00:45
Savage Boston
um and which are obviously a really serious charge against a woman, very, very serious. um Again, like not, not, I'm not a lawyer, you know, I can't tell you, you know, it feels like very much ah he said, she said, but again, like again, not a lawyer, clearly there's not a lot of details and I don't want to minimize if he actually did these things, but, um but yeah, so long story short,
00:01:13
Savage Boston
Massive news about digs, uh, bringing it back to the football field. Uh, you know, he's your best wide receiver. He's been your most consistent wide receiver. This is, this is his second kind of like off field event this year.
00:01:29
Savage Boston
Obviously the first one variable got asked about was the the pink, the pink stuff, the pink substance, the, the, whatever you call it. I'm not up on the pink drugs, but But that event and now we have this event. So I think the team clearly came out and said they're standing behind him.
00:01:45
Savage Boston
They have a strong stance or like we don't believe it We deny these allegations and we stand with Stevon Diggs. So the team obviously feels like the story is fabricated. So anyway, I just want to get the initial thoughts. Stevon, you want to go ahead first and just give me your thoughts on the Diggs story just because it's such a big story.
00:02:03
Snooty
Yeah, I mean, you know the backdrop of all this that obviously allegations like this are very serious, but we're not lawyers and we're not you know judges or anything like that. So just strictly looking at this from like a football perspective or football fan's perspective, um I mean, I think the fact that the team came out and inserted that phrase that they support him is notable because they haven't done that in the past with Jack Jones, with Jabril Peppers, um which and the fact that it happened, I think it was the fourth or the second of second of December.
00:02:26
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:02:32
Savage Boston
Second. Yeah.
00:02:34
Snooty
So leads me to believe that they know the details of what happened, or at least they believe they know the details of what happened. Yeah. I mean, ultimately i think given they were in negotiations reportedly to settle, I think they're going to settle and it'll go away in the long run.
00:02:50
Snooty
Um, So I'm not, but I don't think I'm, I don't think I'm worried about him missing time or anything like that until then. I think the NFL would be leery about suspending a star player for the playoffs.
00:03:03
Snooty
Cause it's not like a game, couple of games in the regular season where it's, you could largely make that up. Like you can't make up playoff playoff games. It's like the definition of irreparable damage. So, I mean, I don't like it. It's obviously a bad look. You never want your players to be involved with or anybody to be involved in any type of situation like that. But in the end, I think it's going to, I don't think it'll all amount to much.
00:03:27
Bret
Yeah, and on top of it, you look at how they're proceeding with the court. It sounds like they're trying to seal it today so it doesn't really become public. And Diggs made an offer monetarily to try to essentially pay this one off and move away, which I know some people will look at that and say presumption of guilt, but it's also a level of The amount of legal fees he would have to pay just to fight the case and then the public scrutiny he'd have to go through. It's almost sometimes easier to just pay it and move forward.
00:04:00
Bret
And it seems like based on what we do have thus far for evidence, it's coming down to a he said, she said. Now, the texts do not make Diggs look good, but. when it comes to the actual accusation of physical assault, that becomes sort of a he said, she said, and waiting two weeks. And I didn't see anything about markings or anything like that that would show.
00:04:24
Bret
So we'll see. I don't think anything's going to come out of that. and it also sounds like they're trying to push off the arraignment till March. Whereas where it stands right now, it would be right before the AFC
Comparisons and Team Decisions
00:04:36
Bret
championship game. So Not great timing.
00:04:39
Bret
Never great timing with this.
00:04:40
Savage Boston
Mm-hmm.
00:04:41
Bret
And unfortunately, this is the shit you deal with with a diva receiver like Diggs. And it's tough because you look at it. We obviously talked about the pink bag of drugs in the offseason.
00:04:53
Bret
and felt like it was not a great sign but then after that the guy has been nothing but spectacular and we felt like we really got someone that's been a strong leader and obviously producing on the field and and and everything you wanted to and more from the signing and then now we're getting up for the playoffs like guns blazing feeling great about ourselves and then this shit drops so It's just it sucks because I feel like with the Patriots, it's never ending with this shit when it comes out.
00:05:25
Bret
It's just horrible to deal with as a fan. I mean, I hope obviously none of it's true. And if it is like I hope he does face some justice. But this seems to me like it's ah he said, she said.
00:05:40
Bret
I think she's just looking to get paid off on this one. And I think they're all going to just move on.
00:05:46
Savage Boston
Yeah, it's – I mean, it's wild that it feels like it's always something. But, like, it's more – you know, I said it today a bunch. Like, I think he's playing. I don't think this affects – his status in the games like I don't and I do not think the league is going to come out because the Patriots were so strongly like we deny you know we deny the allegations like I think the league is going to say all right cool like I don't think they'll suspend him at all I think he'll be good to go this Sunday um you know interestingly enough you know Mike Reese brought up today on the radio I thought it was a good point that
00:06:21
Savage Boston
In the Jabril Peppers case, right, when that happened, everyone's like, oh, and he got suspended. And that was a huge deal. And a lot of people were like, you know, he's guilty. He's like jumping to conclusions.
00:06:32
Savage Boston
um Ultimately, Peppers himself apparently was like, i don't want to settle with this person. I want to take this to court to prove my innocence. And so what Peppers did and good good for Peppers. He's like, I want to defend my honor.
00:06:45
Savage Boston
Right. and And that's what he did. So I don't know if Diggs is going to take the same approach of saying, because he's got more money in the world. You know what i mean? Like he's he's dating Cardi B. Like they got millions flowing out of everywhere. You know, they have no problem with money, right? So I think ultimately the payoff would be easy.
00:07:05
Savage Boston
But does someone want to get in his ear and say, hey, man, if you if you fight this in court, like it can exonerate your name. So it's just another look at it. Like it's not the payoff. I don't think the payoff just magically means you're guilty. I don't believe that. That's not true. I think some people would rather just be like, I don't want to deal with this. Like, I don't want this to go on.
00:07:25
Savage Boston
But ultimately some people will say, i don't want to pay this person who's extorting me. That's extortion, right? So literally some people don't want to be part of that. So anyway, it's a huge story. I mean, do you guys think that this applies to digs or affects digs going into next year? Who wants to take that one How does this affect Diggs into next season?
00:07:47
Snooty
I don't think it has a material impact on him for next year, ah provided he's not fine found guilty of like something you know actually heinous or whatever. um Simply by because he's a 32-year-old receiver who's coming off of you know knee surgery, and I think...
00:08:04
Snooty
you know The contract is what it is, um so I don't think it's going to impact his future with the club. I think his future with the club was really realistically only probably another year after this year, if this year goes well, um which it has to this point.
00:08:19
Snooty
so i don't think're It's not like they're going to extend him for another three, four years on top of that. It's like he's going to be a 33-year-old receiver next year.
00:08:25
Savage Boston
click
00:08:27
Snooty
so you know i mean I don't think it really has a material impact on him going forward. Yeah, agree.
00:08:34
Savage Boston
Yeah, I think ultimately this is just not going to affect them in any negative way going forward.
00:08:35
Snooty
I think ultimately this is just not going to... Yes.
00:08:44
Savage Boston
is mike mike We just had an echo. I don't know what just happened. We just had like some sort of strange. Am I echoing too or is that just Brad who's echoing?
00:08:53
Bret
Am I better now?
00:08:55
Snooty
yes
00:08:55
Savage Boston
Yeah. Oh, it's because because we had our side.
00:08:55
Bret
Wow. Wow.
00:08:59
Savage Boston
I'm going to keep this in the podcast just for fun. But it's because we had another video
NFL Playoff Scenarios and Coaching Decisions
00:09:03
Savage Boston
up open. And I think he's just echoing himself between the two media forms. Anyway, so go for Brad.
00:09:09
Savage Boston
I was like, what the hell's going on?
00:09:12
Bret
Yeah, sorry about that. Little audio glitch. ah But yeah, ultimately, no, I don't think it's going to affect them next year because, i again, it's just another example where NFL guy making oodles of money is just going to pay it off and move forward. And then, you know, we'll see what happens the next go around. um So, no, long story short, no, I don't think it matters.
00:09:37
Savage Boston
But does the team, does Vrabel or the team say like, all right, like maybe this is too much of a distraction or maybe like, Hey, we got restructure your contract or, you know what i mean?
00:09:48
Savage Boston
Like, do they use this in any way? Because like, this is two, two off field events that have been distraction to the team, but then his performance has been so good that it's like, you know what mean?
00:09:59
Savage Boston
I feel like
00:10:00
Bret
Well, and on top of it, everyone talks about from a locker room perspective, like Chisholm came out.
00:10:04
Savage Boston
he's been great.
00:10:05
Bret
Chisholm came out recently and talked about how much of a role model the guy is. And ah as you said, the statement, I think, is a good telling sign that the team feels confident that he's just going to move past this and it's not going to be anything more than what it is.
00:10:21
Bret
Don't get me wrong, this stuff is annoying. So as an employer, I'm sure Vrabel and Kraft are annoyed that this keeps coming up and they're not going to continue to deal with it. But at the same breath, it's also they're not in it for the long term.
00:10:39
Bret
It's a three year contract. He'll after next year, he'll have two years left and it's another year into the rebuild. And we'll see what happens. You know, we've talked about what if we bring in in a guy like A.J. Brown?
00:10:52
Bret
And he comes in with some of that mental side of things that becomes pretty challenging at times. But ultimately, I think Vrabel's got a strong grasp on that locker room. I think the culture is really strong that even shit like this, it's not going to shake the roster. It's not going to shake the the locker room.
00:11:10
Savage Boston
I mean, he, like you said, he's been such a good, good soldier. You know what mean? He's been locker room. He's been a great teammate, great soldier, ah supporting his other teammates, supporting Drake. He's been really someone rely on. So it's, so it's,
00:11:22
Savage Boston
It's something again, i don't think he's getting suspended. I don't think anything's coming from it. It's just a big story today. And it's not gonna technically go away until it's all until it's all over. Even if it is completely fabricated, you still have the annoying, like said, the annoying text messages and stuff like that, where it looks like, why are you texting this person like this? But long story short,
00:11:44
Savage Boston
think he'll play and we need him to play. He's a huge impact player and you you can't lose this many wide receivers and function. Although as, as great as Drake has been.
00:11:55
Savage Boston
um All right, let's pivot into a, I guess, more positive talk is the Patriots actually clinched the AFC East with Buffalo's loss the Eagles. And um first of all, weird Buffalo Eagles game.
00:12:06
Savage Boston
I don't like often like often the Eagles offense.
00:12:07
Bret
wild game
00:12:10
Savage Boston
I don't, I what's going on there. Like, I can imagine why AJ Brown says like, I got to get out of here because like that offense in second half, I don't think they like, they didn't have more than like two completions or something like the second half of some atrocity. So
00:12:24
Bret
Yeah, I think at one point I saw like their total yardage was like 18 yards and it was in the fourth quarter, like deep in the fourth.
00:12:29
Savage Boston
it's horrible.
00:12:31
Bret
They could not move the ball to save their life. And I get it. The weather was shit. It was out in Buffalo. it was cold, wet, rainy, all that. ah But they couldn't do anything at all offensively.
00:12:42
Savage Boston
It's a bad offense.
00:12:43
Bret
And the Bills' defense is not that elite. So ah the fact that they struggled that much is crazy.
00:12:47
Savage Boston
No. No.
00:12:51
Bret
But looking at the Bills – This team is, look, Josh Allen is legit, but Josh Allen still makes stupid mistakes pretty consistently at this point to say like,
00:13:06
Bret
you're almost guaranteed he's going to cough one up or do something stupid that's going ultimately end up costing them. And on top of that, McDermott, I don't know what the fuck the guy was doing going for two at the end of the game.
00:13:17
Bret
All the momentum was on the Bills' side. Again, Philly couldn't move the ball to save their life for two straight quarters, and Buffalo was able to get themselves in position.
00:13:28
Bret
to be able to at least get a field goal, if not score a touchdown numerous times. I don't know why McDermott decided, hey, this is a good opportunity to go for two, go for broke, let's do this. And then they end up rolling out like that. it was just stupid across the board, but I think that's just the Bills being the Bills.
00:13:46
Savage Boston
Well, is this such a...
00:13:46
Bret
That is the prototypical Bills and why they are where they are.
00:13:47
Savage Boston
it's a It's a modern call. That's like a modern call. Like I don't, it's an analytic call. So what do the analytics say is a percentage of you converting that two point conversion?
00:13:58
Savage Boston
They think it's like 80%. eighty percent Like what do they put it at? And if someone tells you, Hey, you have an 80% chance to win the football game. Do you take that percentage? Right? Like someone clearly in the room, the analytic room was like, Hey, this is the call. You go for it.
00:14:14
Savage Boston
Even on our minds were like, why don't you just tie it and play clearly? You're going to win. Right? So it's – I get it both ways. Like the kick in the field goal and playing in overtime is like that's the old school way. That's what you would have done 20 years ago.
00:14:28
Savage Boston
And the two-point conversion, that that's analytics, man. I bet you can look it up. What's the percentage
Analytics in Coaching and Playoff Strategies
00:14:33
Savage Boston
of – average percentage of converting a two-point conversion?
00:14:36
Bret
I would love to look up that conversion percentage to win a game.
00:14:38
Savage Boston
I don't know.
00:14:40
Bret
I would bet you it's extremely low, but I don't, I don't disagree that this was probably an analytic analytical decision. I'll see if I can find it, but I bet you to win a game, it's probably very, very low.
00:14:52
Snooty
It's kind of a perfect case study because like I go back and forth because it's like, do I think it was overly aggressive and that was unmerited given the circumstance? And like that's where you have to read the situation. like Analytics can't Like, I don't know how they account for the fact that the Eagles can't complete a forward pass, you know, in the second half type of thing. Like, but by the same token, he was open.
00:15:14
Snooty
Like, all Allen has to do is make that pass and they win, right? So, like, how much can you really hate on the call when it was right and it was there? He just didn't execute.
00:15:24
Savage Boston
Yes, execution.
00:15:25
Snooty
You what i mean? Like, I get it. Like, you know, mcd I don't think McDermott's a great coach. and I think he's going to get fired this year if they don't win, at least make the Super Bowl. I think he gets fired this year. um It's time for a change there.
00:15:34
Savage Boston
<unk>
00:15:35
Snooty
But, like, it's hard to shit on him for that when it should have worked. By all accounts, it should have worked. but But, like, and this is kind of going into, like, you know, just to jump ahead a little bit, going into, like, the last week of the season. Like, does Buffalo really want to lay down and die against the Jets and go into the playoffs in a two-game losing skid?
00:15:56
Snooty
I don't think they do. I think they want to win.
00:15:59
Bret
Oh, they're going win.
00:16:00
Snooty
I think they want to win. I think they want to win. Like,
00:16:02
Savage Boston
Hold on.
00:16:03
Bret
Yeah.
00:16:03
Savage Boston
Before we go into this, cause that's going to be a whole thing about who's playing what and who, what matchups where, right? So before we go into this Buffalo's two point conversion, success rate last year was 50% exactly this year.
00:16:15
Savage Boston
Apparently this is what, this is what this says. i don't know ah how exact this is, but they have one of the worst in football at 14%. So they went for that in that game with one of the worst two point conversion success rates in football.
00:16:27
Bret
Yeah.
00:16:27
Snooty
How? How?
00:16:32
Snooty
how
00:16:33
Bret
And I'm also looking it up that the over the over the summer before this year, the NFL had its lowest two-point conversion rate in the last 15 years.
00:16:34
Savage Boston
who made Who made that call?
00:16:45
Bret
So whoever these analytics are, they should probably check their math.
00:16:49
Savage Boston
Dude, they're one for eight this season, the Bills, apparently.
00:16:52
Bret
It was stupid.
00:16:53
Savage Boston
So I don't know. I mean, honestly, like if you're just, McDermott's just like, I'm going with my balls. And he's just being feeling the game. He's like, we need, we got this. He's like, what did he say about ISIS or something?
00:17:05
Savage Boston
What did he say about terrorists or something?
00:17:07
Snooty
Oh, um yeah, I don't even want to get into it.
00:17:09
Savage Boston
He had some ridiculous quote.
00:17:10
Snooty
I remember it, but I don't want to get into it.
00:17:12
Savage Boston
but He had some ridiculous quote about terrorism. Anyway.
00:17:14
Snooty
was about working together and teamwork.
00:17:18
Savage Boston
Yeah. And then compared him to terrorists or something.
00:17:20
Snooty
Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to extend it to where he did, because an idiot, but like...
00:17:22
Savage Boston
Anyway. absurd quote. Anyway, so he goes up, he's like, I can feel it. We need to but like, the analytics don't back up what he's saying.
00:17:33
Savage Boston
Even if it was 50, 50, why are you risk? a Kick it and then play you like, so in that regard, I would say whoever made that call, which was probably McDermott, but like, don't, maybe it wasn't the analytics team because the analytics don't back us up, back it up. If the league rate was 75%, then all right, I get it's like, it's like going forward on fourth and one when you're at the 37 or the 40, right? And fourth and one,
00:18:00
Savage Boston
Conversion percentage is high. Quarterback sneak is high. know what i mean? Like you have such a higher rate of achieving that, that I get why the teams do it. It is a high conversion rate.
00:18:10
Savage Boston
So
00:18:10
Bret
Well, and not only that, but even if you don't convert, like, the advantage of you punting doesn't really give you too much of a, like...
00:18:18
Savage Boston
yeah. Risk reward.
00:18:18
Snooty
Yeah.
00:18:19
Savage Boston
Yeah. Diminishing returns, whatever.
00:18:20
Snooty
Or the chance of making the field goal or the chance of making, well, maybe not now, but the making of like a 50 plus yard field goal.
00:18:20
Bret
So...
00:18:25
Snooty
It's different.
00:18:26
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:18:26
Bret
Yeah, so though that I understand the mentality. But you're right. The two-point conversion, we've gotten too stupid at it at the NFL level. And clearly Buffalo is really stupid at it because they're one of the worst in the leagues and McDermott's still like, let's go get them, guys.
00:18:42
Savage Boston
yeah That's crazy. that's if If they're legitimately one of the worst in the leagues, like that's crazy, man.
00:18:47
Bret
They are. They're 30th out 32.
00:18:51
Savage Boston
That's, that makes no, makes no sense. um Yeah, that's absolutely wild. But so yeah, as far as playoff scenarios now, so this is where it's going to get funky. So I'm looking, I'm looking up, trying to find my own tweet. I had all these scenarios written down.
00:19:06
Savage Boston
um But basically as we know, right. Clearly the Patriots have to win. They have to win to have the number two seed. Okay. um Where it gets weird or dicey is, you know, A is first the Chargers are resting their starters and Herbert is not playing.
00:19:25
Savage Boston
So the Chargers are lying down against the Broncos. The Broncos by default have to play hard and then we'll get a bye week next week. So their incentive is to come out and win. Right.
00:19:35
Bret
Well, they're not resting, just to be clear, they're not resting their starters. They're resting their starting quarterback.
00:19:41
Snooty
Yes.
00:19:41
Savage Boston
Okay, that's it. So they're just resting Harper. So what is this, all the starters and Trey Lance?
00:19:47
Bret
Yeah, mean.
00:19:47
Snooty
I mean, maybe, but he, I mean, Herbert has a broken hand. Like the man is beat up.
00:19:52
Savage Boston
Yeah, he's legitimately injured.
00:19:52
Snooty
Like,
00:19:53
Savage Boston
I get it. But basically they're like, okay, we're going to concede this game. So unless you get a miraculous Trey Lance show, which, okay, that'd be crazy. Like like the Patriots are going watching their game as, you know what i mean?
00:20:07
Savage Boston
as As it's being played at the same exact time.
00:20:10
Bret
Well, just to throw it out, I mean, the Chiefs just played the Broncos with their third-string quarterback, and it was 20-13.
00:20:15
Savage Boston
No one's lost.
00:20:17
Bret
So it's not like the Broncos are smoking people at this point.
00:20:17
Savage Boston
They should. Yeah, it's good.
00:20:21
Bret
like The Broncos are on a skid right now. They have not looked clean. And so I look at it and say –
00:20:26
Savage Boston
No, they have not.
00:20:29
Bret
We'll see. i mean, the Chargers are going to want to run the ball. They still have a really good defense. And I think Bo Nix is guaranteed to not guaranteed. I shouldn't say that, but he's probably highly likely going to give up a turnover during the game. So I wouldn't be surprised. Now, would I put money on it? No, but I don't think it's a complete punt and it's never going to happen.
00:20:51
Savage Boston
Yeah. I mean, my first question would be, do the Patriots rest their starters at all in the second half? Like, do they just say, all right, ah you know, Broncos are taking this. We're going to rest it no matter what. We're we're taking guys out in in preparation. and Do they rest guys is my question.
00:21:08
Snooty
I think if it's clear that the Broncos are going to win, they they might. um Because,
00:21:17
Snooty
I mean, i don't you might have the game in hand by that point. You might not. But I think there's certain guys you want to get repped. You want to get Milton Williams repped. You want to get. Will Campbell reps, they're coming back. They need to they need that contact to get back.
00:21:31
Snooty
But if you're... And i I don't think it's everybody. I think it's selective and it's targeted, right? So, like, you you sit... Like, if Moses is banged up, maybe you sit him, you swing Vidarian low to right tackle, see how he does playing right tackle. He's only played left to this point, right?
00:21:45
Savage Boston
Yeah. Yeah.
00:21:46
Snooty
um you You rest selective guys while still being moderately competitive. And if the Broncos are losing, then I don't think you take your foot off the gas, and I think you just... you really push for the win because then you get to buy.
00:21:59
Savage Boston
yeah If the Broncos are down, you got go full steam, full steam, hundred percent. Like if they're down or if they're tied, I think you play everybody, but like first, you you know, you really, i think do the Patriots care that much about the difference between the two and the three seed.
00:22:06
Snooty
Yes.
00:22:20
Snooty
You should.
00:22:20
Savage Boston
Because that's an interesting question. Like, I don't like we care. We're like, yeah, we want the two. And then chance of you facing Buffalo is much lower if you get the two seed, much more likely to play the Chargers. And that, you know what i mean? But if you get that three seed, the chance of Buffalo being the six seed are very high.
00:22:41
Snooty
I mean, you should um be just by virtue of um like he guarantees you if you win, you get two home playoff games instead of one.
00:22:52
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:22:53
Snooty
And like that's that I know they've been eight. They're eight now on the road or whatever this year. But like, you know, being home is nice.
Playoff Seeding and Matchup Implications
00:23:00
Snooty
Like it's historically it's good to play playoff games at home, obviously.
00:23:01
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:23:04
Snooty
So.
00:23:04
Savage Boston
But they have a possibility to play. This is why it's too tricky almost to do even. It's crazy with one week to go. It's hard to even do this talk because there's a scenario where they could almost play at any single possible team. They could play Houston, Buffalo,
00:23:19
Savage Boston
ah you know, what call it? The chargers, they could fall down somehow to what, like the five seed and play either the Steelers or maybe the Ravens.
00:23:22
Bret
They
00:23:32
Savage Boston
Like, wait, no, they can't fall. No, no, they can't fall to the five now.
00:23:34
Bret
they can't fall down below Buffalo.
00:23:36
Savage Boston
Okay. So that's out. So they can only, they've locked the AFC, so they can only be two and three, but they could still play Houston, Buffalo, Houston,
00:23:40
Bret
Yes.
00:23:43
Snooty
They could be one, two, or three.
00:23:45
Savage Boston
They could be one, two, or three, play Houston or Buffalo um or the Chargers.
00:23:48
Bret
Or the Chargers.
00:23:50
Savage Boston
And there's a possibility that Houston leapfrogs Jacksonville and they could still play Jacksonville in the first round as well.
00:23:56
Bret
No, Jacksonville, I don't think Houston can advance. Maybe.
00:24:02
Savage Boston
No.
00:24:03
Snooty
Houston can win the division.
00:24:06
Savage Boston
Yeah, so then they can potentially play Jacksonville.
00:24:06
Bret
So Jacksonville would have to lose to the Colts.
00:24:12
Savage Boston
That's what I mean. like it's it's there's the You could almost almost play almost any team. You could play, ah again, the only team you cannot play is the Steelers or the Ravens.
00:24:18
Snooty
Hold on.
00:24:26
Savage Boston
You can't play that. you know Pardon me before. So you cannot play the Steelers steelers or the Ravens, but you can play ah Jacksonville, Houston, Chargers, or Bills. You can still play.
00:24:40
Savage Boston
one of those four teams, if things fall correctly, the most up.
00:24:43
Bret
Jags are playing the Titans, dude. There's no way they're losing that game.
00:24:47
Savage Boston
Yeah. Again, like, but any given Sunday, it's the problems. Like you just don't know.
00:24:52
Bret
Yeah.
00:24:53
Savage Boston
Like you can't guarantee me, like you said, the chargers, you can't guarantee me the chargers don't beat the Broncos.
00:24:53
Bret
I mean...
00:25:00
Savage Boston
Broncos are kind of playing shitty football. Like you don't know, like if they beat the Broncos, you get the one seed.
00:25:05
Bret
I would be more willing to put money on the Chargers beating the Broncos than the Titans beating the Jags. Now, when it comes to how do the Patriots approach week 18, I think they approach it the same way they approach week 17.
00:25:21
Bret
Just fuck them, right? Just absolutely throttle them, bury them, and then we'll w rest the guys because we just put up over 40.
00:25:25
Savage Boston
Blow the doors off.
00:25:30
Bret
like That's the way I look at it going into Miami game. We just got to throttle them. And when you get teams like Miami or teams like the Titans that are basically out of it, they're done. They're already got their trip booked to Aruba after the end of the season. Like it's just not you just put them on tilt and they're going to topple.
00:25:53
Bret
So I think we should be able to go in there. Go headstrong. Everything that Snooty just said, we got to get some reps for some of the guys that have been on IR for a period of time. So that'll be good for them. And then we just rest in the second half and we move forward and we'll see what happens. However, the chips fall. I'm also a big believer that when you have momentum going, playing cute and trying to like rest guys in between to not really matter. I don't like it.
00:26:22
Bret
I like to stay in rhythm when you're in rhythm.
00:26:26
Savage Boston
Yeah. Well, I mean, I don't know. I think now as far as as far as the teams you want to play, I think i think obviously the most obvious answer is you want to play the Chargers because they're West Coast team coming across, two injured tackles. They have not been playing amazing football.
00:26:48
Savage Boston
You know, I know there's no perfect matchup, but like the Chargers are probably the better matchup for you. Houston seems to just keep winning. And i we know their defense is excellent. So, like, they keep winning. So, ideal world, you get the two.
00:27:05
Savage Boston
Chargers get seven seed. Houston gets a six seed. um And then bu Buffalo gets the five. Or, would you know, or, yeah, I think Buffalo get the five or the six. I don't know how that tiebreaker is going to work out between the two teams.
00:27:20
Savage Boston
Again, there's some math in there that we don't know yet. So... I don't know how it's going to work, but I think Buffalo five, Houston six, Chargers seven. So if you're telling me you could beat, let's say you beat the Chargers and um I don't know, let's say the Bills beat Jacksonville, right?
00:27:43
Savage Boston
Or the Bills beat one of those teams the Jackson, Houston beats Jacksonville or Jacksonville beats Houston, whatever. Long story short, you could play Jacksonville round two, And ah the Bills would play, you know, the the Broncos or something like that. right You would have a a different matchup. So I just, just you know, scheme-wise, think there's a lot happening. There's a lot of moving parts. If you go if you're telling me, though, the Patriots go Chargers, chargers Jaguars, like how could you be how could you be disappointed with that road if that's the road?
00:28:17
Bret
Yeah, i don't I don't know if I... Out of all of the matchups, I would say the Steelers and the Chargers are probably the teams I fear the least.
00:28:28
Bret
And that's primarily because Herbert's now injured and playing with a broken left hand. ah And then... I think the Steelers suck. So I don't think they should have even won that.
00:28:41
Bret
And they might not even be there, right? Baltimore could beat them on Sunday, and now it's Baltimore in the playoffs. So –
00:28:47
Savage Boston
I would be shocked if you face an AFC North team. I would just say, like, at that point, like, I don't see how you – it would have to fall a very specific way for that to happen.
00:29:00
Bret
Possibly. I mean, again, i to me, i look at it.
00:29:03
Snooty
No.
00:29:04
Bret
Is that Baltimore Steelers game in Baltimore or it in Pittsburgh?
00:29:11
Savage Boston
and
00:29:12
Bret
That's going to huge game, obviously.
00:29:12
Savage Boston
going to say – that's a massive –
00:29:15
Snooty
So, in order for that to happen, if you're the two seed, you would need the three seed to lose and the four seed to win. It's not outlandish.
00:29:22
Savage Boston
It's at Pittsburgh. and
00:29:24
Bret
Pittsburgh.
00:29:24
Snooty
So...
00:29:24
Savage Boston
Was it nighttime, like Sunday Night Football or something?
00:29:26
Bret
Sunday Night Football.
00:29:27
Snooty
So basically, what would happen in order for that to happen, you would need, you'd have to beat the Chargers, presumably 7th seed.
00:29:34
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:29:34
Snooty
Then the 3 seed, let's say the Jaguars would have to lose to the Steelers or the Ravens. And then you play the Steelers or the Ravens in round 2. No,
Team Evaluations and End-of-Season Analysis
00:29:44
Savage Boston
yeah the Yeah, the Jaguars.
00:29:45
Bret
Well, the Jaguars wouldn't play them until the second round because it
00:29:49
Snooty
no, no. Jaguars would play the 6th seed.
00:29:52
Savage Boston
I mean, here's the problem, dude. Five, six, and seven seed have the same record.
00:29:53
Snooty
And if age if the three loses to six, so let's say Houston's six. If Houston beats Jacksonville, you beat the Chargers, and then the four seed beats Buffalo, which is hilarious, then you would play the four seed because you would be the highest seed remaining.
00:30:09
Savage Boston
I mean, what is so Houston? Who's Houston playing? They're playing the Colts, which I guess, again, technically you just don't know what's going happen.
00:30:14
Bret
Yes, because a Houston would then play Denver.
00:30:17
Snooty
Yes.
00:30:18
Bret
Yeah.
00:30:18
Savage Boston
But right now, the five, six, and seven seed all the same record. They're all 11 and five. This is why you can't guarantee it yet. Most likely Buffalo will beat, will beat the jets. Even if Buffalo sit Josh Allen, they could still beat the jets.
00:30:32
Savage Boston
Like that's the jets are one of the worst rosters I've ever seen.
00:30:33
Bret
Oh, yeah.
00:30:36
Savage Boston
And I said it like it's truly like one of the worst teams.
00:30:36
Bret
That was bad.
00:30:39
Savage Boston
I think professional sports teams I've ever seen. They not only just no drive, but like talent wise, there's nothing on that roster. Like you sure. There's a couple of good defensive players still like a couple linebackers, but,
00:30:51
Bret
it's Breeze Hall.
00:30:52
Savage Boston
Brees Hall's good. Sherwood's good. And Quincy Williams good. Like they have some players, but like just a really rough team. You could have beaten them 60 to three or whatever. Like it was just, so long story short, the bills should probably win. They're going to lock up again, like the six seed or I think this or the five seed.
00:31:12
Savage Boston
Let's say if, you know, if Houston wins and if Houston wins and the bills win, then I think the bills end up with the six seed and Houston gets the five seed. because Houston has the tiebreaker on them right now.
00:31:24
Savage Boston
So that happens. You play you play the Chargers. The Bills play Jacksonville. Houston plays Pittsburgh. Presuming Houston beats pitts Pittsburgh,
00:31:35
Savage Boston
Like, the Bills at Jacksonville round one. Talk about pressure. I just want to talk about pressure on Buffalo and Josh Allen. That's not easy at all, dude. Going into Jacksonville, who's rolling to play them in Jacksonville round one with all the pressure in the world. No Mahomes, no Lamar, no Burrow.
00:31:53
Savage Boston
This is the year. If Josh Allen loses in the wild card, you want to talk people shitting on Buffalo? Like, it's going to get loud, dude. Really loud. So, that's all I'm saying. Like, that's going to be...
00:32:05
Savage Boston
It's going to a crazy wildcard weekend. And so I just – obviously you hope it shakes out in your favor. And then, again, dream scenario, you play Chargers, then you play – again, then you play Jacksonville, and then hopefully Denver loses to like Houston 1-5, and then you got Houston in Foxborough in the AFC Championship. Like that to me would be the best path you could have.
00:32:32
Savage Boston
um unless you really just want to see Buffalo again. But, like, I don't know.
00:32:40
Snooty
I'm at the point where I think it's bad karma to like wish or to root for a specific team. Like it is what it is.
00:32:46
Bret
Yeah.
00:32:46
Snooty
Just play and fucking let's see what happens.
00:32:47
Savage Boston
Oh, yeah, I know.
00:32:50
Bret
Yeah.
00:32:50
Savage Boston
that's what we used to do, though, back in the day when they're, like, hold against the karma argument.
00:32:51
Bret
i
00:32:56
Savage Boston
Because, a I don't believe in karma and karma, really, because it's... Otherwise, there'd be... ah A lot more good things would happen to good people and bad things would happen to bad people. But um regardless, we used to talk about the shit when we were younger with the Brady days. We'd be like, all right let's line it up. We got Indy. That's a win.
00:33:14
Savage Boston
We got, know, we were so cocky about it in the Brady days. Cause we fucking knew. We're like, we knew, like we're not, they're going to AFC championship. Like you knew it. Like, okay, Baltimore, that's the game.
00:33:24
Savage Boston
You know, like, yeah,
00:33:25
Bret
Well, the thing, if you look at this this year, again, like just flip the script, right? You had Jacksonville was one of the worst teams in the league, now one of the best teams.
00:33:39
Bret
Pats, one of the worst teams in the league, now one of the best, right?
00:33:39
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:33:42
Bret
Some of these teams are like ahead of schedule. So because they're ahead of schedule, they're not like head and shoulders above their opponents, right? in this regard. And then some of the other teams like the bills are in a semi rebuild, right? It's, they still have Josh Allen. So they're always going to stay competitive, but they are in a semi rebuild phase right now. And then you get guys that are gotten beat up, obviously like Kansas city, which could never piece it together and get themselves back in it. And then I think Cincinnati would have been in it had borrowed, not had turf dough and taken them out most of the year. So
00:34:18
Bret
There's just not elite-level teams that are in there. And when you talk about it from the quarterback play, Drake May is arguably the best quarterback in the conference and in the league.
00:34:32
Bret
So that's just going to give you confidence to go into these games thinking you can win it.
00:34:33
Savage Boston
Yeah, it's crazy.
00:34:36
Bret
But when you look at the overall rosters, there's not huge head and shoulders like this team's dominant. And I'm fearful of them. I hear it all the time. People talk about Houston, all that front for that front for, but it's like, okay, but then what are they going to do on offense?
00:34:52
Bret
You're right. And then you sit there and say, Josh Allen, Josh Allen.
00:34:53
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:34:53
Snooty
Yeah.
00:34:56
Bret
It's like, okay, but how are they stopping them on defense? Right.
00:34:59
Savage Boston
I mean, yeah.
00:34:59
Bret
And no team's head and shoulders separation. Right.
00:35:02
Savage Boston
There's no perfect team at all. And I think it's it's what the league wants, man. Like, this is what they want. And I think it's good. I think it's good for the league. It's good for the NFL. Like, you have teams that are flawed, but it should make for some exciting football. Like, it's exciting.
00:35:18
Savage Boston
Like, if Mahomes – again, if Mahomes was in this tournament in a vintage Mahomes year, let's say, like 2019 Mahomes – with a fourteen and three Chiefs team, you'd be like, that's the juggernaut. nobody You know what I mean? like You'd be betting favorite every game, every match. I'd be like, okay, how do we avoid them until the championship, right? like That would be the difference. This year, that team just does not exist. like i don't Even this Broncos team, yeah, their defense is good, and they're well coached.
00:35:48
Savage Boston
like I don't know. How fearful are you of the Broncos? like Yeah, I don't want to go play football. And Mile High State, like, I don't want to go play in Denver because it's a good atmosphere. I think the fans are good and it's tough to play.
00:36:01
Savage Boston
Everyone's fatigued. Like, it's a tough place to play in. Good home field advantage. But do you really fear the team? Like, that's that's what I'm
MVP Debate: Drake May vs. Matthew Stafford
00:36:09
Savage Boston
getting at. Like, is it the team you fear? Is it the is it the shield? Is it the the logo? Like, I think...
00:36:16
Savage Boston
out of players and, and one player that could strike some fear in a fans, which is why he obviously gets so much hatred from our fan base is Josh Allen. if you're going to choose one guy who say, all right, that's there's one guy here that – like that's not the same for Trevor Lawrence.
00:36:33
Savage Boston
It's not that guy. It's not the same for Bo Nix. You don't roll and be like, oh, fuck, Bo Nix. Like, yeah, that doesn't mean he's going to be bad. I'm just saying that he's not like the reputation thing versus you have a guy in Drake May that other teams are now starting to be like, all right, like how do we – they're like in the room. They're like, okay, like how do we defend Drake May?
00:36:52
Savage Boston
Like, what do we, what do we need to do? You got to stop his legs. Okay. You got keep them in the pocket, but then he's really good in the pocket. Okay. Keep them, maybe keep him passing short, but he's like the best passer in history past 20 yards. Like he's just had such an obscene year. So like Drake may is one of those guys that he is actually the guy who's hard to game plan for.
00:37:11
Savage Boston
Um, And again, like I've said, this year to me is already a success. We said, I'm going back to our takes. I'm not moving the goalposts. I'm not going fucking do it. Everyone drives me crazy. Like, oh, you need to now go to this and that. Not doing it.
00:37:25
Savage Boston
Like we predicted, like conservatively, you said 10 wins was amazing. 10 wins in a playoff berth was amazing. Go back, listen to the pod. We all said it.
00:37:33
Bret
We said 11 was their ceiling.
00:37:34
Savage Boston
11 was the ceiling.
00:37:36
Snooty
Yep.
00:37:37
Bret
And we said that's everything going correctly.
00:37:37
Savage Boston
We're like 10 wins. Yeah, everything perfectly. Guess we way undershot it. um We should have said, Drake made MVP um and 14 wins.
00:37:48
Savage Boston
You know, we undersold it, I suppose. but But yeah, so this year has been a success. It is a success. You're way ahead of schedule.
00:37:59
Savage Boston
um And you found out you have a guy that might win the fucking MVP. You want to talk like way beyond schedule, dude? Like, i don't know. I think it's, it's been an incredible, incredible turn and a great season.
00:38:12
Savage Boston
And I'm just excited that, you know, I get to go see a playoff game at home. You know, that's going to be sick. I didn't think I'd be seeing one of those in a while. It's been last playoff game.
00:38:22
Bret
I
00:38:22
Savage Boston
I saw at home was in 2019 or the 2019 season when Brady played his last game.
00:38:27
Snooty
Yes.
00:38:28
Savage Boston
That was the last game I saw at home.
00:38:28
Snooty
Tennessee. Yep. Yeah, we were there.
00:38:30
Bret
could see two.
00:38:31
Savage Boston
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So that was, that was tough. So um why don't we touch on it real quick? How do you guys feel about the May Stafford MVP debate? Whoever wants to take that.
00:38:44
Snooty
I mean, Mahomer. I think May deserves it. I mean, if I'm being objective, I think... There's shitload of like stat padding touchdowns and stuff that Stafford gets. He gets a ton of stuff, you know, close to the goal line. I think they're going to give it to Stafford. I think it's going to be a kind of a lifetime achievement type thing, which I think is fucking stupid.
00:39:06
Snooty
Um, Just in general, I also think a lot of this voting in line with like the Hall of Fame voting and everything is is just really fucking stupid. It's about who's most popular with the people who vote versus people actually like breaking stuff down. You got a little bit of the new school versus old school type thing where people look and go 40 touchdowns against 34, whatever May has, which is...
00:39:29
Snooty
Versus the other guys that are like the EPA and the CPOE or whatever the hell it is. and you're like, all right. Like, at some point, just turn on the tape and just say, look, like, strictly looking at it, May plays with less relative to Stafford and is doing arguably more.
00:39:44
Snooty
So, to me, it's May.
00:39:47
Bret
So youth to you, you would pick May. Do you think May gets it?
00:39:51
Snooty
Correct. No, I think Stafford's going to get it, but I would pick May.
00:39:57
Bret
Yeah. i to I think it's going to depend on week 18. If you had a pick today, i think May would get it just because of the fact that there was the argument about the amount of picks, but then that got leveled.
00:40:15
Savage Boston
Mm-hmm.
00:40:16
Bret
And then you look across the board, the only thing he has right now is obviously he's thrown for more touchdowns. But obviously Drake's rushed for some touchdowns, even though he's that's still kind of offset.
00:40:26
Bret
I like i love the stat comparison of you know you know who they mesh up with when they played the same opponent. and Drake May was 6-0 and Stafford was four and two you looked at their touchdowns, interceptions, um many and again, you add in their completion rate and then all that stuff, like Drake May outperformed him across those
00:40:47
Savage Boston
that was That was a great, that was a great stat thing.
00:40:49
Bret
Great side by side.
00:40:50
Savage Boston
know
00:40:50
Bret
And it really painted the picture. And like, again, you look at, oh well, Stafford's throwing for more passing yards. But it's like, well, if you count cumulative total yards and include Drake Mays rushing yards, which you should, he's gotten he's produced more yards than him.
00:41:07
Bret
His team has a better record than him. He's got a better, like, he's been able to do it with way less what they're asking him to do. Like, you see that grab that Puka Nakua just made?
00:41:19
Bret
Like, no one's making that fucking grab for the, like, it's just insane. The amount of times, like, They can be able to do
NFC Playoff Scenarios and Conclusion
00:41:27
Bret
that. So to me, I look at it and say what could tip the scale is the Rams could, in theory, bench Stafford against the Cardinals because I don't think anything matters against that. And I think Drake May is going to go out there and put up some more numbers. So I think when it's all said and done because of what's going to happen in week 18, I think Drake May is going to win it because I think they're going to sit Stafford. And I think his stat line is going to rise to the level that –
00:41:54
Bret
puts them into that category and it's going hard not to give it to them.
00:41:58
Savage Boston
I haven't looked at the NFC scenarios because obviously you're focusing on the AFC. So I'm not sure. I know that all I know is San Francisco and Seattle playing for and that division, I believe.
00:42:09
Savage Boston
Right. Isn't that their final game of the year? Those two teams are playing for winner take all.
00:42:12
Snooty
Yes.
00:42:12
Bret
Yeah. So they're playing week 18 to figure out who wins the division.
00:42:16
Savage Boston
What time is that game at?
00:42:16
Bret
So,
00:42:17
Savage Boston
Is that?
00:42:19
Bret
ah That is ah saturday that's Saturday night.
00:42:22
Savage Boston
It's not a Thursday night game. That's such a phenomenal game.
00:42:24
Bret
So they're doing a Saturday night prime time for that one.
00:42:27
Savage Boston
It's such a good game. Although I really San Francisco's defense. I mean, to me, if you're going to give up that kind of points against Chicago bears, like, I don't know. Their defense is decimated. that That was insane. They gave up 38 points to the bears is crazy. And then scored for it. Like that was a ridiculous football game. Brock Purdy has been playing very good football. So like you can't sleep on San Francisco. um But back to the, back to the MVP thing. Like,
00:42:51
Savage Boston
Yeah, everyone talks about the schedule, obviously. Like, that's the talking point. Schedule, schedule, schedule. Everyone wants strength to schedule. But you've got to just say, hey, listen, like, look at your supporting cast. This is the whole part of the argument. Drake May is elevating his whole team.
00:43:05
Savage Boston
Stafford is a great player. May has put the region on his back, the whole region, and elevated the region, okay?
00:43:10
Bret
Thank you.
00:43:13
Savage Boston
It's, like, monumental how much improved he is. the team is because of how much he's improved and how well he's playing. So I think you have to take into consideration who they're playing with.
00:43:26
Savage Boston
You have to, it's not like, I don't understand how people don't, you know, again, Stafford with, with that team, like they're pretty loaded. Their line is loaded. They have a great offense. They already won a super bowl. They're a brilliant offensive coach, right? Like, and this is a first year head coach.
00:43:43
Savage Boston
Yeah. You got Josh McDaniels, lot of experience. I understand. But like, I just think Drake, I think Drake deserves it, you know, and again, a second year MVP, kind of like what the Lamar did it.
00:43:53
Savage Boston
Um, did my homes do it? And like Dan Marino did it. That's the crew, like the second year MVP crew, which is crazy. It's like Lamar, my homes and Dan Marino. Like that's who we're fucking talking about. And people really need to understand the gravity of that.
00:44:08
Savage Boston
And then let's see the off season. Like who they getting? Who are they loading up on? They traded for AJ Brown. How do you improve the team? Like there's going lot to happen. Cause again, this was year one, dude, year one of the rebuild. So again, just to repeat. And again, we'll end the pod soon. Cause I don't want to have it go too long, but this shit is all gravy.
00:44:27
Savage Boston
It's all gravy. Of course, we'll be disappointed. If they lose, when or if they lose, like just like 31 other teams will be disappointed. But you got a guy who's a stud, potentially a generational stud.
00:44:41
Savage Boston
You have a team that is way ahead of schedule. And it's been a really fun team to watch. That's what you need. And next year is going be tough, dude. It's going to be a gauntlet. I saw the schedule. You got a lot of really good teams next year and it should be a a fun year with some high level football. Uh, and certainly not, shouldn't have too many complaints about strength. The schedule is all I'll say. So, um, all right, pivoting a real quick pivot. So it gets Miami. Um, I'll take paths who knows the score 30 30 to 14. Um,
00:45:12
Savage Boston
thirty to fourteen I don't know. Sit the starters in the third. i don't know. I don't know. It's going to be wild. Who the fuck knows what's going to happen? You guys take it.
00:45:23
Snooty
going to say the Patriots play to win, so I think they're going to
00:45:29
Savage Boston
That's close.
00:45:30
Bret
I'm going to thirty four ten and I think the starters are sitting in the fourth quarter. And then just to circle back on Drake May MVP and Stafford sitting,
00:45:42
Bret
The Rams statistically like do not have a chance to advance their positioning. They have a worse record than the Niners in the NFC. So even if the Niners lose and have the same and the Rams win, and they have the same record as the Rams, the Niners would advance beyond. They would stay above them because their head-to-head matchup is split, but the Rams have lost more NFC opponents. So...
00:46:07
Bret
The standings are very much solidified other than essentially that one spot with the Seahawks and Niners.
00:46:14
Savage Boston
What seed are the
00:46:17
Bret
um
00:46:18
Savage Boston
it's sixs They're going to be like the sixth seed.
00:46:19
Bret
They're sixth. Yeah, they're sixth. The Packers are seventh.
00:46:23
Savage Boston
Oh, because Carolina and Tampa are basically having a horrible dogfight for the last, like the last divisional.
00:46:30
Bret
Yes, it's basically it's basically the AFC North and the NFC South are the battle of the drags pretty much.
00:46:32
Savage Boston
And then,
00:46:36
Savage Boston
know, just bad divisions. Who's the seventh seed?
00:46:39
Bret
But yeah, so the Packers and they're 9-6.
00:46:40
Savage Boston
Who's the seventh seed in the NFC?
00:46:44
Savage Boston
Oh, wow. Okay.
00:46:45
Bret
So again, ah Rams cannot advance their position.
00:46:46
Savage Boston
Supposed be locked down.
00:46:49
Bret
They are solidified at the sixth spot.
00:46:50
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:46:53
Savage Boston
So that's tough then. how you going to give Stafford the MVP? If that's his last game of the season, blowing it against the Falcons with three picks, you're going going to give him the MVP after that one, a six seed.
00:47:02
Bret
If they sit them, yeah.
00:47:05
Savage Boston
That's tough. You know, that's tough. So, all right good, good discussion. But well, we thank you guys for tuning in. Tons happening. Tons happening all the time. It's just been a crazy busy time. So we appreciate it. And we will catch you guys next week. Peace.
00:47:18
Bret
Peace.
00:47:18
Snooty
There.