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EPISODE 67 - PATRIOTS VS CHARGERS. PLAYOFFS.
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Transcript
Patriots' Playoff Return: A Six-Year Wait Ends
00:00:00
Bret
Thank
00:00:01
Savage Boston
Hi guys, welcome back to the Savage Boston Podcast. We're here, I'm Scott, your host, here with my co-host Brett, per usual, and it is officially playoff week. Today is January 6th at 8.30 at night, and yeah, man, we're just we we're we're stoked and we're ready. This is the first playoff game in six years, since the last time that Tom Brady...
00:00:27
Savage Boston
took the field for the Patriots that I was at, unfortunately, for that loss. i was I was watching him. A quick aside, I remember watching him at the end of the game thinking like, okay, if he's actually going leave, he'll stay the field for a while and like say bye to the fans and shake fans' hands. So I remember watching him. They lost.
00:00:46
Savage Boston
I'm waiting, watching him. and And nope, he just ran right off the field. Didn't say bye to anybody. i was like, oh, he'll probably be back. And then he left. So i just, yeah, I thought that was just thought that was weird. I really expected a little bit more like to take in the moment. But um but yeah, so – First playoff game in ah in a long time. It's, and it's exciting, man. i
Analyzing the Chargers Matchup: Opportunities and Threats
00:01:10
Savage Boston
guess to to to kind of start it off, I guess we should just talk about just the matchup itself against the Chargers. Like, if if you could pick a team out of the three teams you could have played out of Houston, the Bills and the Chargers, you know, this is the team you want to play, right? Like, is this, like, you you tell me, Brad, is this the team you would want to match up with?
00:01:34
Bret
A hundred percent. And i know we've talked about this on a couple of pods a while back, but we looked at it and said, what what scares you more in the playoffs? And to us, it was, you know, essentially a strong, deep a strong ah offense because we have less faith and faith in our defense than the latter. And the Chargers have a really good defense.
00:01:58
Bret
I just trust our ah offense and Drake May to be able to figure it out and put it up enough points to get the W. Plus, we're at home, I think, is a big advantage. You got a West Coast team coming across the country, plays in a dome historically. Now they're playing outside in the elements of Foxborough, right? That's...
00:02:17
Bret
That's going to be helpful on our sides, give ourselves some home field advantage. Plus, the Chargers are more banged up than us, right? I mean, if you're to look at it, we're more banged up on defense. They're more banged up on offense, so they kind of help to offset.
00:02:32
Bret
But offensively, I feel like we have enough firepower, like I said, to overcome their defense. And if you looked at the other two potential matchups, I do think ah Houston has a better defense than the Chargers. So give them a little bit more of a leg up. But I also think that Herbert's a better quarterback than
AFC's Toughest Opponent: The Josh Allen Factor
00:02:52
Bret
Stroud. But then again, Herbert's playing with a broken left hand. So who the hell knows, right? Yeah.
00:02:58
Bret
And then, of course, the Bills. The Bills are the Bills. I think they're by far the scariest team left on the AFC just because of Josh Allen. And obviously there's a history there. And we'll see.
00:03:11
Bret
You know, it could potentially come down. I know we'll talk about like scenarios and stuff. But if we had to pick out of those three, I would say the Chargers are the most favorable matchup for us.
00:03:21
Savage Boston
Yeah. I mean, I think, I don't know who would disagree with that. Cause like, honestly, if those were the three teams, like, lined up. Like I said, like Houston's the one team who's on a roll.
00:03:32
Savage Boston
First of all, they won like 10 games in a row or something. Like they're on a roll. Their defense is excellent.
00:03:36
Bret
think they're eight of the last nine or something like
00:03:37
Savage Boston
Yeah. like They've been doing really, really well. Right. And so, I mean, that's clearly a team. Everyone's like, i don't want to see that team, but um the bills, you know, the thing about the bills. Yeah. Josh Allen, and you know, you don't, again,
00:03:48
Savage Boston
probably as many people consider the best player left in the AFC. um You know, I think you can obviously argue Drake may, but yeah, like Josh Allen's the guy you might not want to see, I think the bill's defense is very suspect, but yeah, that, you know what the chargers does as we talked about, right there, their offensive line is the biggest issue. They don't have a good offensive line.
00:04:10
Savage Boston
They're going to do things scheme wise and, and coaching wise that maybe help Justin Herbert, open the game up. Like they're lucky. Like Herbert is a good quarterback. He's not been a good playoff quarterback, but he's a good quarterback, very consistent.
00:04:25
Savage Boston
He's played at a high level for a bunch of years now, but like, again, they're down to all pro tackles too.
00:04:31
Bret
Yeah.
00:04:32
Savage Boston
They're down to the, in all, but those are good tackles.
00:04:33
Bret
Yep.
00:04:35
Savage Boston
Like this is a much scarier team when they're healthy. um So I think that matchup wise and the Patriots, again, they're getting back. Like no Williams is healthy. Robert Splane should be back.
00:04:46
Savage Boston
Harold Landry is taking just two weeks off to rest straight up. They just benched him to rest him. Tonga might be back. So like you're getting a bunch of guys back and I think you're, you're kind of in some way in in a much better health position than you thought you'd be.
00:04:56
Bret
Thank you.
00:05:00
Savage Boston
um My only concern is just scheme and coaching and like, having those moments where like at the beginning against the game last week against Miami, where they're just kind of getting gashed by a really bad Miami personnel grouping with viewers. Like they got gashed a bunch at the beginning of that game until, until they didn't.
Patriots' Defensive Strategy: Targeting the Chargers
00:05:21
Savage Boston
Right. But they, they were getting gashed. And so you hate seeing that. You're like, what's going on? Like, why can't they get off the field? And so that's the nightmare scenario is that they, for some reason, just can't figure out, especially in the first half, can't figure out how to get off the field.
00:05:36
Savage Boston
um And that's what I would be concerned about matchup wise. So, I mean, do you think, do you think the defense has what it takes to stop the Chargers offense? Yeah.
00:05:46
Bret
Well, I do because of the fact that, again, I think there's some favorable matchups. You're right. Their two outside tackles are banged up, so that's going to be helpful for us because um really the Pats don't have a great pass rush, but when their outside guys are down, well, that obviously works in our favor. They're kind of null and void.
00:06:07
Bret
what they would have had for an advantage. And then if you look at it from a passing perspective, ah you know, they obviously have McConkie. They brought back Allen. I think – what's that? Quinton Williams I think is their other guy.
00:06:21
Bret
So they're not elite.
00:06:24
Savage Boston
Wait, you're talking about um Quentin Johnson?
00:06:24
Bret
I mean McConkie is good guy, and I think –
00:06:28
Savage Boston
Quentin Johnson?
00:06:28
Bret
Quentin Johnson. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:06:29
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:06:31
Bret
McConkie, I think, will be problematic. I would like to see Gonzo on him more so than Davis because I think Davis has really been suspect all year. He's had like hit or miss moments, but by and large, not great.
00:06:47
Bret
So if we can neutralize McConkie, I mean, Allen's old as shit. So, If you're sitting there saying Davis can't keep up with Allen, well, then we got bigger problems to deal with.
00:06:58
Bret
you know And you could even put on put Marcus Jones on McConkie because McConkie's not a big dude, and they're both quick, fast, shifty guys. So I think like their wide receiver weapons aren't elite.
00:07:10
Bret
I know Harbaugh wants to run the ball, but with Milton Williams back and you don't get Barmore and stuff. And I didn't actually see, is Tonga back yet, or is he still shelved?
00:07:24
Savage Boston
Tonga's not back. So Tonga is, he's been banged up. I think he should, ah to be honest, I think Vrabel's played this pretty well and the staff has played this well where they've taken a lot of time at the end of the season and just basically use the last two, three weeks and say, we're going to rest people.
00:07:40
Bret
Yeah.
00:07:40
Savage Boston
And like lot of guys, they could have played like, like, like Milton Williams could have played last week. um You know, like, I don't know, Jared Wilson has a concussion. He might be back, but he might've had to sit. but a lot of these guys, like maybe Tonga pushed through, maybe Spillane would have pushed through if it's the playoffs, but like they had an opportunity where they're like, Hey, we're ending with the jets and the dolphins. We don't think we're going to get a great effort from either of those teams. And they were absolutely right. I mean, people were weird about the Dolphins game. they're like, they're going want to play spoiler. They fucking rolled over and died. They had nothing for you. They came out a little on offense. Their defense didn't fucking show up. They didn't go off the bus, dude.
00:08:23
Bret
Dude, three plays and we ran it in for a touchdown in three plays.
00:08:26
Savage Boston
Three runs, three runs on the first drive.
00:08:27
Bret
Yeah. It was...
00:08:29
Savage Boston
Like, all right, this, you know, they didn't fucking show
00:08:29
Bret
It was a joke. It's funny too. I went back and listened to our previous pod and Snoopy actually predicted a pretty tight one.
00:08:36
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:08:37
Bret
He was like 27, 24, but both you and I were like, no, this thing's over.
00:08:43
Savage Boston
yeah
00:08:43
Bret
I think you were like 28, 10 and actually, or 28, 14. And I said 34, 10, which was pretty close.
00:08:51
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:08:51
Bret
And we both, you and I were like,
00:08:51
Savage Boston
Just blow out.
00:08:53
Bret
put them rest in the second.
00:08:54
Savage Boston
yeah
00:08:55
Bret
And that's essentially continue with the formula, which is exactly what happened.
00:08:56
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:08:59
Bret
So i agree. I think Vrabel did. calculate that out when he was going through and just resting up guys. And Reese even said it today where he he's like, I talked to Landry in the locker room, asked him, how hey, how you feeling? How you progressing with the knee and stuff?
00:09:14
Bret
And he's like, I'm feeling better. I'm feeling good. like And Reese interpreted his conversation with Landry basically saying he could have played if they needed him to play, but
Offensive Confidence: Can Patriots Outscore the Chargers?
00:09:25
Bret
they intentionally rested the guy.
00:09:25
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:09:26
Bret
which is good because we need that guy hungry and healthy going in. And then, you know, we'll see Chase on got kind of rolled up on the last one. So anything we can do, obviously, to go in the playoffs healthy and aggressive is going to help our cause. But when it comes to the Chargers, I think where they would have strengths and where and or where our weaknesses are, it kind of worked in our favor based on how the injuries and and the different matchups look.
00:09:54
Savage Boston
yeah I think like personnel, if you're doing like a personnel grouping thing and you're like, okay, how does this group match up with this group? Like if you're doing a side-by-side, right? If you're talking quarterback, like I'm taking Drake May right now.
00:10:07
Savage Boston
He's obviously had an outstanding season. Not say Herbert's not that far behind. He's a great player. I don't, I like Herbert. He's played really well, really good football for years. and I think like there's been other factors working around Herbert as to why he hasn't succeeded in the postseason, but he's a good player.
00:10:24
Savage Boston
um You know, again, if you're comparing like the wide receiver group, maybe you'd give the edge to the chargers. That's like one of the few groupings again. Like I think they're what we go with Johnson and McConkie, like Keenan Allen's a little wash, but like you'd probably give the edge wide receiver group edge to them.
00:10:42
Bret
i would call it a push.
00:10:42
Savage Boston
If we're being objective. Well, I'm just trying to I'm just being objective, trying to give him something like tight end group. You're going to to the Patriots off offensive line. You're going to go the Patriots again, quarterback. You're going the Patriots running back. So you go are the Patriots. um You know, again, when you get to defense, it gets maybe a little wash. But like, I think overall, the Patriots offense is a better offensive unit than the Chargers.
00:11:04
Savage Boston
Defensive wise is where it gets interesting. The Chargers have a good defense. They're physical. Derwin James is a monster. Again, kind of like, you know, he's a really good, strong safety.
00:11:15
Savage Boston
Derwin James has played outstanding football. Um, they're edge rushers. So they still have what Khalil Mack going. They have a couple other really good defensive linemen. They got a decent edge on the other side.
00:11:27
Savage Boston
They've played really good football and they can kind of get after it. So I think again, when you're just comparing units, when you have, uh, you know, their defensive line, their edge rushers, like they have a bit of an advantage.
00:11:42
Savage Boston
So, and I'd say they, you know, again, better probably edge, edge rushers D line might be a split between, you know, Milton Williams and Barmore excellent.
00:11:48
Bret
Thank you.
00:11:50
Savage Boston
And again, the chargers have a really good D line. So again, when we're talking about defensive football, defensive line, like they do have a good unit. So when you put all the pieces together and you say, try to predict, how does this game go?
00:12:04
Savage Boston
How's this going to play out? You know, I think, I think honestly, if the Patriots defense can contain the Chargers offense and get off the field, I think the Patriots can do fine. I think they should win this game. I think they're the better team. I think the travel from the West coast, six hours into like, what's going to be like maybe snow, sleet, kind of gross new England weather really advantages the Patriots.
00:12:30
Savage Boston
um And so, yeah, I think overall the Patriots, in my opinion, they should win this game. It's a better matchup for them. um And I do think ultimately the Patriots should be able to put up points. If they can hit 28 points in this game, the Patriots, which by the way is like, that's their league. That's their average.
00:12:46
Savage Boston
If they hit 28 points in this game, they should really win this football game.
00:12:50
Bret
Yeah, I agree.
00:12:51
Savage Boston
You know, you know what mean?
00:12:52
Bret
i that
00:12:52
Savage Boston
So, yeah.
00:12:53
Bret
That's the way I was kind of looking at it is, you know, how many points do we need to be able to put up in order to get away with a W? And I think anything over 24 is probably enough.
00:13:04
Bret
um Because, again, i don't – like – Our defense has definitely been suspect and disappointing at times, but they seem to have that sort of old bend but don't break and they're opportunistic at times with how they get turnovers. And speaking of which, the Chargers are like one of the worst turnover teams in football.
00:13:28
Bret
They've turned the ball over, I think, what was that, like 14 out of – 17 games or something like that, like just obscenely high.
00:13:34
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:13:36
Bret
um And we don't turn the ball over. So that's going to, I think, play in our favor as well. So ah to me, if the offense could put up over 24, I think our defense is going to keep them under.
00:13:48
Bret
And I think we're going to. we're going to walk walk away with it. um I also think our there's a potential where our defense just plays elite and then we really shut them down and then it's just a total blowout. I mean, again, from an offensive perspective, yeah, we're averaging 28 points. And i know we've had all the statistics being thrown at us because of this whole Drake Maymath, Stafford, strength of schedule, who they're playing.
00:14:14
Bret
We've played really tough defenses and really tough defenses against the pass. Some of the best defenses in the league. And we've been able to produce consistently. And that's been the narrative that you hear the most is the pass have just been the most consistent team. Yeah, we've played weaker opponents, but it's not like they're close matchups like we had earlier in the year with Miami and eked out the win or you know, laid an egg against the Raiders. Like we're going out there and taking care of business and then resting guys in the fourth quarter. Like, what do you want them to do?
00:14:46
Savage Boston
Yeah, I think it's it comes down to like this is one of the better coach and quarterback combinations that you'll have faced all year. And when you talk about who wins games, who wins Super Bowls, like what we've been through the last 20 years of quarterbacks, it applies to coaching to coach quarterback, right?
00:15:08
Savage Boston
Scheme coach quarterback. So this is one of the better, like, again, what do you have? You had McDermott and Josh Allen. And then, you know, I don't know how many other really great quarterbacks you face this season.
00:15:20
Savage Boston
And so again, tomorrow, tomorrow, yeah, it's been awful year.
00:15:21
Bret
I mean, Lamar, but he was just not Lamar because he's been banged up.
00:15:26
Savage Boston
You didn't face burrow, you know, like whatever you face Josh twice. um so when we talk about coach quarterback, and just ultimately good quarterbacks, that's that's the concern for me. like i I think the offense is going to able score. like I think they're going to score. i think they'll put up, hopefully again, at least mid-20s.
00:15:44
Savage Boston
I think this offensive unit is good enough. Drake's played really well. Unless they do a lot of stuff to confuse Drake, which they could do. They could do that. If they really confuse Drake, mix it up. Again, people got to remember, this is a good football coach.
00:15:59
Savage Boston
It's not a schmuck. This guy's been around the block. He led a team to the Superbowl. He went down win a lot of games at a high level college, comes back, immediately turns around this program. So people got to think about this shit now. It's not like, again, like you've, you've played against a bunch of schmucks. don't want to start naming coaches, but like,
00:16:17
Savage Boston
I don't for instance, like ah Todd Bowles or something.
00:16:19
Bret
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
00:16:20
Savage Boston
thats it Don't notice that in this too, but like Todd Bowles, for instance, who's, I don't think is a great coach, you know, with like the, the Buccaneers, you know, um or I don't know. I don't need to even, even McDermott people don't think is that great of a coach. Right. So for the bill, so this is a good football coach.
00:16:37
Savage Boston
People want to play for this guy. he he runs a good program. They're clever. I don't think they have the horses. That's a different story. But again, you got to respect the coach and you got to respect Herbert. Is Herbert going to make plays in this game?
00:16:52
Savage Boston
Who's going to look better, Drake or Herbert? Who's going to make more plays? So I wish I could sit here and say like, yeah, I think the Pats are going to win by 17 points. But like, it just, this game is an interesting game and you don't know how it's going to go.
00:17:05
Bret
Yeah, I mean, it's playoffs, right? And we talked about this, about who's fear, who do we scared by the most and who we least scared of. And I still put the Chargers and the Steelers at the bottom. I would contain can say that's continued and wouldn't change my mind there.
00:17:27
Bret
um So, I mean, if we had a choice for the matchup, this is what I would have. But, I mean, this is the playoffs, right? This is when the real guys come to play and the real talent shows up. And this is something we're going to have to be ready to go and make sure that we can
Playoff Readiness: Health and Performance Improvements
00:17:44
Bret
execute. And that was the message that Brable was given post-game where he basically says it starts now. This is a reset and we've got to get into it. And i think he's been preaching this Going in towards it. i The team is just playing at such a high level at this point. And I feel like.
00:18:02
Bret
We are just on such a roll, whereas the Chargers are kind of limping in, that because of injuries, it it works in our favor and and why I feel more confident than i would if the Chargers were healthy coming into this and you know had a better set of casts. Again, i don't think they don't have a ton of elite talent around them. Harbaugh is essentially in a rebuild, but because he is a good coach – He's been able to turn it around pretty quickly to get them into the position that they're at. Now, they already had a quarterback, but he still did a pretty hard reset on some of their guys just to try and get this part rebuilt. So we'll see. I mean, excited to be playing playoff football because none of us thought this was going to be coming up when we were going through. Like we were thinking optimistically we could backdoor our way in towards it. But, I mean, we basically kicked the door down and said we're here.
00:18:59
Savage Boston
I mean, this Chargers team got hot for a minute, but when you when you look at, when you look at kind of who they beat recently, right? um Basically just to throw it out there. and So, you know, they got smashed by the Jaguars. This is, again, why people think they just did not want to play the Jags.
00:19:15
Bret
um um um
00:19:15
Savage Boston
Their schedule's not been that that difficult either, let's just say, by the way. I'm looking up and down the Chargers schedule. So midway through the year, like, they got beat thirty five to six by the Jaguars. They just got smashed. They're at the Jaguars. Couldn't hang.
00:19:28
Savage Boston
Probably got ran over. Then they beat the Raiders handily. They beat the Eagles in overtime. interestingly Interesting. Herbert only had 139 yards passing in that game. Must have been a really weird one.
00:19:40
Savage Boston
theyd be ah They beat the Mahomes. I don't remember if that was the Mahomes Chiefs.
00:19:45
Bret
No, that was not on Mahomes' team.
00:19:48
Savage Boston
They beat the Chiefs 16-13. Then they beat Dallas pretty well. Again, like Dallas's defense just crumbling. And then they lost to Houston 20 to 16. They lost to Denver without playing anyone. So it's kind of like, I would say a pretty mixed bag for them the last little bit. Like they were beating teams really well mid season. But again, just, just like we were, but when they played, you know, Minnesota, who was really bad at the time, the Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, same shit. Like you just, they did, they took, ah they did okay with some bad teams.
00:20:18
Savage Boston
So, you know, now here we are and they've lost two in a row, kind limping in a little bit to the postseason. I just, um yeah, I don't know. i think I think with Herbert, I don't, like, I think I want to say respect them. Like, it's not, again, it's not like they're coming in with Slater and Joe Ault.
00:20:41
Savage Boston
two all pro tackles with good guards, ready just mush and run the football. They're going to try to run the football. This is the thing. Like they want to run. They want to establish the run. The problem is like the Pats run defense is kind of getting better again, right at the right time. Because again, of, of Milton Williams and Spillane and hopefully Tong is back.
00:21:01
Savage Boston
So I think the Patriots run defense is going be better than they think. which would be great. And I think it's basically going to be, um, they have to run the football. I don't think they can just sit back and just let Herbert sling it.
00:21:12
Bret
Thank
00:21:13
Savage Boston
I don't think that's what they want to do. I think they want to run the football and be tough and be physical. They want this game to be 20 to 16. That's what the chargers want the score to be.
00:21:22
Bret
you.
00:21:22
Savage Boston
They want to hold you again. They they want it mid teens, low twenties. That's where the chargers think they can beat the Patriots. Um, um, But you just got to see how Drake May is playing. If May comes out and plays like he's played, like an MVP candidate, the Chargers lose, period.
00:21:41
Bret
Yeah. I mean, I think the hesitation you have at Harvard is the same hesitation you have with a lot of guys other than Josh Allen is because he hasn't proved it on the big stage, which you could say the same thing about Drake May.
00:21:54
Bret
And we were going to see playoff Drake May and see what he has to produce. I just think. the level of play that Drake may have shown this year. I mean, Herbert has never shown like he's shown that he's a really good quarterback, top 10 caliber talent, but he's, he's not putting up the same numbers that Drake's doing. He's not carrying the team the way Drake's doing it. So even though Drake's a guy that you would say is the same thing where he hasn't proved it. So why should we feel so confident? like, well, yeah, but he also like just had,
00:22:28
Bret
a historic year and is in consideration for the MVP. And that's never been the case for a guy like Herbert. And then you look across the board with other quarterbacks in the, you know, left in the conference and you say, it's just Josh Allen.
00:22:41
Bret
You know, if Lamar was able to eke in, then you would say Lamar. When you look at Rogers, I mean, he's clearly on the back nine and not playing his best. And he's kind of in the Peyton Manning era of,
00:22:53
Bret
Football where he's I don't want to say he's a total game manager, but he's not doing anything elite He'll just show one or two flashes of wow. That was a really great play by a elite level player Historically, but they're just not at that level anymore So that's why I look at it and feel so much confidence going into these games and to give Felger credit I want to say he probably did this after like week six, but he talked about it when they first kind of came out of the run and they were like starting early on, like ford four and two, I think. And Drake was really starting to shine.
00:23:25
Bret
and Felger basically talked about the QB matchups going down the the board. And he basically said, like, QBs are the tipping points. And usually if you have the better quarterback, you're going to win more games than not.
00:23:39
Bret
And he was basically going comparison, this matchup, this matchup, this matchup on QBs.
00:23:39
Savage Boston
Yes.
00:23:45
Bret
And at that point in time, he's like – he predicted that we were going to do really well because a lot of people had high faith in Drake May. And that ended up being pretty much true. So it's just – It is one of those things with a guy like Herbert where it's like, yeah, he has all the tools and he's shown flashes. He just hasn't done it consistently enough, and he obviously hasn't produced on the big stage to make us feel more confident that our guy is going to outperform their guy and then all of the other different grouping matchups and how they work out.
00:24:15
Bret
it just To me, I look at and say, if our defense comes out and plays to their full potential, I think we'd run away with this. I don't anticipate that. I think it's going to be a relatively tight game, but I still think we'll probably put up over 24 and keep them under 24.
Quarterback Comparisons: Drake May vs. Justin Herbert
00:24:33
Savage Boston
Yeah, Herbert actually, you know, he was he was okay this year, but really not a not a super amazing year for him. His 66 completion percentage, which is like his career average. 26 touchdowns with 13 picks, which is kind of a lot of picks.
00:24:50
Savage Boston
He might throw a pick in this game.
00:24:51
Bret
And not a lot of touchdowns.
00:24:52
Savage Boston
Yeah, it's not not crazy, right? um You know, he again, throwing more picks than his there is career average there. So, you know, his quarterback rating on the year was 94, which again, like he's he's a very consistent player. Like his career quarterback rating is 96.
00:25:11
Savage Boston
That's good for a career. That is good. He's just like Mr. Consistent. Like looking at his statistics from coming in the league literally six years ago, like 2020, he's played six seasons.
00:25:21
Savage Boston
You know, zero, one, two, three, four, five, six seasons. You know, is eat's he's just a cool guy, cool Joe. Like, he's average. Not average. He's better than average, but he's consistent.
00:25:32
Savage Boston
And again, like, but consistent in this league doesn't often lead you to winning championships.
00:25:33
Bret
you
00:25:39
Savage Boston
Like you have to be outstanding at some point. And often that's what happens. Even like we said, even Jalen Hurts, who we said got carried, whatever. Well, even getting carried, like he was putting up numbers. Like he had a great Superbowl.
00:25:51
Savage Boston
Like he put up numbers while being quote unquote carried, you know? So absolutely.
00:25:54
Bret
Yeah, I mean, he performed in that Super Bowl, and that you know that's why they won.
00:25:58
Savage Boston
Absolutely.
00:25:59
Bret
He stepped up on those. You just look at a guy like Hertz where it's just – there He is not at the same level as a guy like Herbert. like I would definitely say Herbert's a better quarterback than Hertz, and Herbert's doing it with less, way less.
00:26:09
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:26:15
Savage Boston
Yeah,
00:26:15
Bret
you know Imagine Drake May in the Philly offense with those weapons. It would be record-burning numbers.
00:26:25
Savage Boston
no, I mean, this is you know, feeling hurt for that guy.
00:26:27
Bret
he'd be he'd be doing He'd be doing more than Matthew Stafford.
00:26:32
Savage Boston
Fucking MVP car. ah You know, yeah. Jalen Hurts is not that guy. I think Herbert is a better quarterback. He is especially with less weapons. So, so good for, good for Herbert.
00:26:42
Savage Boston
i think Herbert is a solid player, but again, like, no, just with the injuries.
00:26:46
Bret
Yeah, have but ah fuck them on Sunday.
00:26:48
Savage Boston
Yeah. Yeah. No, I, especially, well, he's still got like a broken hand, you know? So like, he's really doesn't want to run the football that much, really like with a broken hand, like you don't want to run the football that much.
00:26:54
Bret
and
00:26:59
Savage Boston
You can't,
00:26:59
Bret
Well, it's just difficult for like handing it off and going through. Plus like, i mean, luckily it's obviously not on his throwing hand.
00:27:04
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:27:07
Bret
Otherwise we wouldn't be playing, but it's just, it's gotta be crazy hard, like crazy hard to be able to do what you have to do as a quarterback mechanically with that broken hand.
00:27:19
Bret
And then even just certain like, I don't know, contact related stuff where you're trying to, where you get, you know, you're falling down and you can't really use that hand to brace yourself. Right. Like it's just, it's super difficult and it's football. So
Season Reflections: Success Beyond Playoffs
00:27:35
Bret
there's not going like, we're going to be taking it easy on the guy either.
00:27:38
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:27:38
Bret
ah So we'll see.
00:27:38
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:27:41
Bret
I mean, this is the matchup we kind of hoped for when we were going through and,
00:27:46
Savage Boston
yeah
00:27:46
Bret
Feeling optimistic about it. Thinking ahead though, you know, one of the parts that becomes kind of intriguing is we start looking at like, what does it look like going into ah the next matchup? Not when i trying to get too far ahead, but essentially what are we looking at here if we were to go ahead and see who would fall to us. And I look at it and say, well, that Denver Jags mashup is going to be pretty interesting because i mean, Denver Jags, Buffalo Jaguars, because whoever ends up like if Buffalo wins that they're the ones playing the Broncos going to Denver, which would work in our favor. Cause then at that point we're either playing the Texans or the Steelers.
00:28:29
Bret
um So it's almost like, How do you want that matchup to go? or Would you want Buffalo to go down to Jacksonville and beat them and stay in, or would you want Jacksonville to be out early?
00:28:41
Savage Boston
I mean, honestly, i think it if they win, if they win the wild card, it's all gravy.
00:28:42
Bret
think they're playing with it.
00:28:46
Savage Boston
You know what I mean? In in reality, like I'm i'm happy. And I've said this before, like everyone's like, oh, such a disappointment. Like people love the goalpost moving. We said it last week. I've said it multiple times. Like the season is a success. this They were not supposed to be in this position.
00:29:02
Savage Boston
You got to remember that. They weren't supposed to be here. The team has has played very well. They've been great. Of course, I want them to win now. But, like, I'm happy with what they've done this season. I'm excited and hope they keep winning.
00:29:14
Savage Boston
But, like, if yeah, and this in the second round, hypothetically, like, what do I think is going to happen? um You know, I think Houston is going to beat Pittsburgh. I don't think Pittsburgh's very good. Not scared of them. Unless Houston falls apart, which Again, someone like C.J. Stroud. I don't trust C.J. Stroud.
00:29:30
Savage Boston
I don't trust him in the postseason. He could throw three picks in that game against Pittsburgh, and they could lose. Like, you've got to remember, there's two sides. Just because Houston's offense is great, Pittsburgh's defense is is okay, and they could confuse – you know, they're well-coached, and they could confuse Stroud.
00:29:44
Savage Boston
So, I don't know how that's going to play out.
00:29:46
Bret
think his offense isn't that good. And Strauss kind of banged up too.
00:29:48
Savage Boston
Houston. They've been like very shaky. Nico Collins was out last game. They've been shaky. And then as far as I think Buffalo Jacksonville is like the game, like that to me is the game. Like that's a heavy hitter.
00:30:00
Savage Boston
um I think Jacksonville can win that football game. You know, I think Jacksonville, they're tough.
00:30:04
Bret
mean, they definitely could. Jacksonville is a better team.
00:30:08
Savage Boston
They're a better team. Buffalo's defense has not been great. I think Jacksonville is a tough team. And then, you know, if you, if you're telling me, you told me before the season in the divisional, you get to play Jacksonville at home.
00:30:19
Savage Boston
How could I possibly be disappointed in that? Like, if that's what happens, like how, honestly, if you asked yourself 18 weeks ago, it's Jacksonville at home in the divisional, you'd be like, uh, yeah, sign me up.
00:30:32
Savage Boston
Right. Like versus Josh Allen or something or, or whatever, you know what
Playoff Fears: Allen vs. Brady Comparisons
00:30:36
Savage Boston
mean? So.
00:30:36
Bret
Well, let me ah let me put it this way because it was the same thing we did last week, right? What are our matchups in round one for the wild card? And we basically said we were going to take Jacksonville off the board because when we looked at it we're like, they're playing Tennessee. They're not losing that game.
00:30:50
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:30:50
Bret
So it was going to be either the Buffalo or Chargers or the high probabilities or there was an outside chance we could have played Houston. Now we look at and say – it's probably going to either it's probably going to be either Jacksonville.
00:31:05
Bret
Well, here's our options, right? There's three. It's either going to be Jacksonville, Houston, or the Steelers. And looking at that, i would say if I had my choice, I would probably lean towards playing a team like – jackson Because I just want Houston to go out to Denver and kind of get knocked off or vice versa.
00:31:28
Bret
Like, i don't know. or they could knock them off and then maybe we're playing Buffalo in the AFC championship. who Who the fuck knows? I just think.
00:31:35
Savage Boston
thank you Well, with Jacksonville, again, like it's a Florida team coming up to New England. If that, if this is all hypothetical, it'd be a Florida team coming to New England. That's advantage Patriots off the bat.
00:31:46
Savage Boston
The difficult thing is just a good, just kind of a good team. Like they've been playing well. They play teams hard. I don't believe in Trevor Lawrence at any high level to carry a team. He could really flounder, but he's played well.
00:32:01
Savage Boston
um And they run the ball well.
00:32:02
Bret
ECN's a good running back. Like, they their running game's really good, and their defense is really good.
00:32:03
Savage Boston
Yeah, they run it.
00:32:08
Bret
So...
00:32:09
Savage Boston
they're They're creative with the runs. Like they just do different things. Like they're just, they're, they're pretty well offensively well coached team, you know? And so, um yeah, I mean, look at their schedule in this year.
00:32:22
Savage Boston
Like, they dude, they want to, they want a lot of games, man. I mean, they were 13 and four. Like they, they won a lot of games, man.
00:32:28
Bret
They're right with us. Let's go.
00:32:31
Savage Boston
Like, and they've won one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight games in a row. And all these games, by the way, like this is why you don't want to play them, dude. These are the scores of the games they've won last eight games in a row.
00:32:49
Savage Boston
35-6, 36-19, 48-20, 34-20, 23-17, and 41-7.
00:32:49
Bret
Bye.
00:32:53
Savage Boston
Like they've just like, they're really rolling at this point. Like they got smashed by the Rams back in the day. They they lost to Seattle. Like was tough for them. They had to play Seattle and the Rams and they lost. Those are good teams.
00:33:05
Savage Boston
But then like, Again, i think they're rolling. So it's like, you know, like pick your poison. Like they're, they eat them here rolling versus like, if you miraculously get Pittsburgh, that's again, would be like, that's the tip of the top. Like you should beat that football team. Like, I don't, I don't think you should fear Pittsburgh.
00:33:27
Savage Boston
um They're not a that good of a they're a very mediocre football team too. But again, I don't think they win. I don't think they beat Houston. I think Houston's a better team than they are by a bunch.
00:33:37
Bret
Yeah, so i mean it again, like I look at it and say, do you want Buffalo to win, right?
00:33:41
Savage Boston
Mm-hmm.
00:33:43
Bret
Because if Buffalo wins, that means we're going to play either Houston or the Steelers. And that's the way I look at it, where I'm like, if I had my choice, I would want Buffalo to go down and beat Jacksonville and then go out and lose in Denver ah just because i want Denver to knock them off and then we'll see where it goes. Although I'm afraid of going to Denver, but...
00:34:07
Bret
We'll see.
00:34:07
Savage Boston
Someone brought that up today, though. If you really think about it, would you rather have Josh Allen in in New England or would you go to Denver? Historically, you don't want to go to Denver. But the Patriots are undefeated on the road.
00:34:19
Savage Boston
and And I think at times, Bo Nix has looked horrible. And they have not been a good football team. Again, good this is why it's all fucking wide open.
00:34:28
Bret
Yeah. right
00:34:29
Savage Boston
We're not sitting there ready to go to Kansas City to play prime Mahomes. You know what I mean? Like, you're not like, oh shit. Like, we got to find a way to to get this one. Like, I think that's a dead matchup.
00:34:39
Savage Boston
At Denver, dead even matchup. Like, that's a 50-50 to Yeah. Yeah.
00:34:43
Bret
Yeah, I think that would probably be like a 1.5-point favorite for Denver if it was done today, um which when you look at it for an away team, that's basically a push.
00:34:49
Savage Boston
yeah
00:34:56
Bret
um Yeah, in Denver, we talked about it last week about them going against the Chargers, just didn't feel like they they're humming, right? They're kind of limping their way in. they're They're on a bit of a skid. They just don't look clean.
00:35:11
Bret
ah And again, the Chargers, they're just banged up. So that's an injury type thing. Whereas you're right, Jacksonville, they look clean. Like right now they're playing really sound fundamental football.
00:35:22
Bret
And that again, they have a really good run defense or run ah offense. They have a really good overall defense. ah I don't think Lawrence is great, but he's not a scrub, you know.
00:35:34
Savage Boston
Well, talking about Lawrence really quick, because I was just looking this up and I think it's, I think it's appropriate. I mean, like if you look at Trevor Lawrence's numbers being serious, like this is his best statistical season. Actually his second year was better, but like, you know, they, they hyped him up. What do you think his passer rating was this year? Just his general passer rating, even though he's getting a bunch of hype.
00:35:55
Savage Boston
What do you think he's at?
00:35:56
Bret
I don't know, 93. Okay.
00:35:59
Savage Boston
Yeah. and Close. He's 91.
00:36:02
Bret
okay
00:36:02
Savage Boston
And at 29 TDs and 12 picks, the 58 QBR, 91 passer rating, completion percentage is only 60%. Like he's just, to me, it's just underwhelming quarterback play, you know, and from watching him. It's not just like stat, you know, not just stat watching. Like every time I watch him, I'm underwhelmed. The last few years, he's had pretty poor seasons, 85 passer rating. That's below average.
00:36:27
Savage Boston
So like he's not had a good run here. um So, again, I think, like, again, if that's your matchup in New England in bad weather, i don't i don't hate that matchup either. Like I said, like, because, again, would who do you trust more, Drake May or Trevor Lawrence?
00:36:44
Bret
Yeah, yeah i I guess to me, like, I'm just concerned about Buffalo. When it all comes down to it, that's the team I fear the most, and that's the team I'm looking to try and see if they can get knocked off some way.
00:36:51
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:36:59
Bret
And I look at it and say, well, if they win against Jacksonville and they're still in it, then, okay they can go out. And then if they lose to Denver, well, then Denver knocked out Josh Allen and we go to Denver.
00:37:14
Bret
Or if they happen to beat it, it's like, okay, well, we take the hardest opponent, we take them in our home turf, right?
00:37:20
Savage Boston
Yeah. Yeah.
00:37:21
Bret
Where we were just at their game like a month ago, and we were fucking blowing them out in the first quarter and through into the second quarter, but then all of a sudden we fell apart, right?
00:37:32
Bret
So – it's just the quarterback and his ability to just take over a game, which is what he did against us, is it what concerns me the most, which is why I'm most intrigued about that matchup.
00:37:40
Savage Boston
yeah
00:37:47
Bret
I agree. I think if we ended up playing Houston or Pittsburgh, like I am super confident in either one of those matchups. um You know, i I just don't think – I think Houston's overhyped.
00:38:02
Bret
They've been overhyped a lot.
00:38:04
Savage Boston
yeah
00:38:04
Bret
And then I just think Pittsburgh is, i mean, they they're from the AFC North. They barely made the playoffs.
00:38:13
Savage Boston
But I think it's true though. I think if you're, you're laying in wait, thinking about one, one player, like who's, who's the guy, who's the guy you really don't really want to see. And I think it's, there's one guy, it's Josh Allen.
00:38:25
Savage Boston
i mean, people just need to be serious.
00:38:26
Bret
Yeah. Yeah.
00:38:27
Savage Boston
I mean, this is not Twitter land on Twitter. you say something positive and everyone shits on you or something like this isn't Twitter real conversation. Like you, people know it. That's why you feel the fear with it.
00:38:38
Savage Boston
And that's, it's good. It's good for football, like, he's the guy you're like, okay, if we see this guy, you got that little fear in your back. yeah It's like playing fucking. I mean, it's not, I'm not putting this on record. It's not the same as someone like Tom Brady. Okay. But when you knew the homes or Brady was common and sitting there in the post season and you have to go through them, you're like, fuck, please don't play Brady.
00:39:00
Savage Boston
Please.
00:39:00
Bret
Oh, yeah.
00:39:00
Savage Boston
Like if you're the Indianapolis Colts tortured by him, it's 2016, 2014, whatever. And you're like, fuck, please don't get Brady. Please. or whatever And then they lose like 45 to seven.
00:39:12
Savage Boston
You're like, what the fuck? You know, it was like, he was the demon, dude. He's the demon in the post season.
00:39:16
Bret
Yeah, and it didn't matter who was around them, who they had on their roster. I mean, even just look at the Chiefs in their last Super Bowl run.
00:39:21
Savage Boston
Didn't matter.
00:39:25
Bret
Like, they were subpar a majority of those seasons.
00:39:25
Savage Boston
Yep.
00:39:30
Bret
They had, like, the most – what was it? Like, the most wins within, like, a margin of, like, three points or less. They had, like, nine wins or something like that year.
00:39:38
Savage Boston
They were like, they had like one loss or something.
00:39:39
Bret
It was stupid.
00:39:41
Savage Boston
They were like 16 and one 15 and two.
00:39:43
Bret
It was stupid, but they had like a horseshoe up their ass the whole year. But then when it comes playoff time, it's like playoff Mahomes shows up and, well, fuck, they just won.
00:39:54
Bret
So, yeah.
00:39:55
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:39:56
Bret
i Josh is the only guy that really scares me on the AFC side. I think the NFC is deeper and stronger. So whoever our team comes out of that one is going to be to probably really tough matchup.
00:40:06
Savage Boston
Yeah.
00:40:09
Bret
And those things are crazy. Like you even look at like one wild card matchup where you're like, dude, you got San Francisco going to Philly. Like that's going to be a dog fight. Like crazy, crazy good teams.
00:40:18
Savage Boston
Yeah, that's a great game. What is that Monday night?
00:40:21
Bret
okay
00:40:22
Savage Boston
San Fran in Philly?
00:40:24
Bret
I think so. Yeah.
00:40:24
Savage Boston
got Yeah, I love that game. It's a great it's great game.
00:40:27
Bret
By the way, totally love like how college football and the NFL decided to line themselves up this year to make sure that we had like a Thursday-Friday matchup for college football, and then it switches around.
00:40:38
Savage Boston
Oh, yeah. Whoa. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Dog's going off. ah Brett has a new puppy. um But, yeah, so... No, I hear you, man. I think it's clearly, like...
00:40:54
Savage Boston
It's going to be tight no matter what. There's some really great games. I think there's some some really great action coming up. It's going to be tight regardless of the game. There's going to be some awesome football. it's ah It's a great weekend. This weekend and next weekend are awesome. I'm s stoked to go to the game. I'm excited to go. It's late.
00:41:10
Savage Boston
That's the one part I hate. I'm working working Monday, not taking a sick day, but I'm pumped to go. We've got to just get a W, man. so i mean what is your We might as well end it. I'll give my score prediction. I'm going to say,
00:41:26
Savage Boston
I'm going to 24, 24, 21 Patriots is what I'll say.
00:41:33
Bret
Yeah, like I said, I think they just got to get up over 24. So me, I'm going say 2720. And we'll it goes.
00:41:41
Savage Boston
Okay.
00:41:41
Bret
and we'll see where it goes
00:41:45
Savage Boston
Need the W. I don't want to have like a moratorium or whatever. Like, you know, don't want, i don't want to have the ending end of the season pod next week. Season.
00:41:53
Bret
I mean, the last playoff game you went to was a loss. You can't go to another playoff game be a loss.
00:41:59
Savage Boston
I can't do it, man. I get it. We need to die. It's been six years. So we need, we're due. We're due for it. happy to be hosting playoff game again. um, all right guys, thanks for tuning in. Hopefully get ah get a W this weekend.
00:42:11
Savage Boston
Peace.
00:42:12
Bret
Later.