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2025 Sun Belt Football Previews: Old Dominion Monarchs
55 Plays3 months ago
Brian and Zeke return to talk about the Old Dominion Monarchs, who uncovered a quarterback gem in Colton Joseph last season. But did Ricky Rahne and company do enough to put playmakers around him so that ODU can be a true contender in the East division?
On the defensive side, Old Dominion projects to have clearly the best linebacking corps in the Sun Belt, but the secondary appears to still be a work in progress on paper.
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Transcript
Introduction and Episode Overview
00:00:16
Speaker
Welcome back everybody to another edition of warm weather fans the Sunbelt podcast. My name is Brian Stone joined this week by Zeke Palermo. ah We are here to talk about the old Dominion monarchs but before we do Zeke how are things going?
00:00:33
Speaker
I'm good good to be back in the seat. I know I missed last week. um you know This is going to be another one of those seasons where we're but just trying to get all three of us on the same schedule. going be tough. um Brian, you are obviously the only consistent one week in, week out.
00:00:49
Speaker
ah We'll see what we can do next week, man. Yeah, i'm I'm hoping by the end of the season we'll have three weeks with all three of us on. That would be a nice little benchmark to hit.
Old Dominion Monarchs' Last Season and Coach Ricky Ronnie
00:01:00
Speaker
ah As I said at the top, we are here to talk about the Old Dominion University Monarchs. um Obviously, things did not...
00:01:12
Speaker
They didn't go super well last year. Now, there were a lot of ah silver linings that they had kind of uncovered, and we we will definitely go over those. But unfortunately...
00:01:25
Speaker
The name of the game, and I've been saying this since last year, and until it stops being true or Ricky Ronnie stops being the coach, I will keep saying it. The name of the game is, it seems like one of those three, the shell game, like where you have the three shells and there's like a ball underneath and they keep moving them around.
00:01:45
Speaker
That's what Ricky Ronnie does with this roster. So occasionally he will have maybe one, maybe two impact players on the roster, but never at the same time.
00:01:56
Speaker
So he has found himself in this situation again. and again, we will definitely dive into that, but it's kind of the same drum we've been beating since last year because not a lot has changed in the off season.
00:02:09
Speaker
But Zeke, do you have any sort of large scale old Dominion Ricky Ronnie takes like before we really jump into this? ah Yeah, you and I kind of chatted it before we hit record. And ah so this is year five. Ricky Ronnie was hired 2020. Yeah.
00:02:26
Speaker
Sun Belt, obviously, most college football obviously didn't play that year, um but he was hired ahead of that season. So this is his sixth year in charge, but only fifth like actual playing season.
00:02:37
Speaker
ah Over that time, they've had no winning seasons, best records at 6-6, made two bowl games in the other two years, we talked about, remember speaking very carefully,
00:02:49
Speaker
and we talked about i remember speaking very harshly last year about like, this is old dominion. Ultimately you have a relatively low ceiling. This is a team that is relatively young within the context of FBS, uh, only joined the sunbelt in 2022 only joined FBS, like what within the past 15 years or so. So the ceiling is not immensely high, but if, as we go into year five,
00:03:14
Speaker
something You need to turn a corner at some point. You need a winning season. You need a ah more resounding... i mean, 6-6 is a regular season best is is unacceptable ah through five seasons. i i'm sure I'm certain that there's someone out there that they can find.
00:03:31
Speaker
Who that is, who knows? um But that's really the high level is just when is this team going to turn the corner? When is this team going to start like actually stringing together winning seasons um before we...
00:03:43
Speaker
And is that going to happen before Ricky Ronnie gets the can? Well, as, as a program, you'll never know if you don't start looking. And if you keep bringing Ricky Ronnie back year after year, regardless of what the results are and just kind of say, uh,
00:04:01
Speaker
this is another year in the can and we'll, we'll be back next season and hope things are different. It's like, I asked this question numerous times, both to you and Matt, um you know, Noah Frary, who came on ah last year for a late season edition.
00:04:22
Speaker
I truly don't understand if there even are expectations at Old Dominion. Like, I would love to get, like, a real insider's view. I mean, we have ah one very prominent listener who's an Old Dominion fan, and he insisted that this season was kind of a make-or-break one for Ricky Ronnie. Like, it's...
00:04:41
Speaker
I mean, sorry for the language, it's shit or get off the pot time for Ricky Ronnie, where it's it's like some you you have to start building
Quarterback and Offensive Analysis
00:04:49
Speaker
towards something. And just to kind of break into the the actual preview section, they have identified one at least one quarterback, if not two, that can really play college football at a high level.
00:05:03
Speaker
But if there's nobody around him, it's not like a basketball team where it's like LeBron can be on the court by himself and you're you're kind of guaranteed a level of competence. you know if If you're a quarterback, even on the level of a Colton Joseph, where you can throw, you can run, you know you're a pretty good decision maker overall, didn't throw a lot of interceptions last year, and there's just no one around you to support you, whether it be helping out in the run game, blocking, catching passes. I mean, we'll, we'll get into the pass catcher spot. That looks like a, but it looks really bad on paper. It looks like a black hole, frankly, of production, but,
00:05:45
Speaker
Again, this going back to the shell game metaphor. Okay, he's identified a quarterback. Is there anybody else under these two other shells? Or is this the this the year that we have the one? And then next year, if let's say Colton Joseph says, screw it, I'm tired of not being supported, and he transfers out, then we're back to square one of of trying to find someone to produce for this football team.
00:06:07
Speaker
Right. ah I draw a lot of comparisons to this team and Arkansas State of previous years, especially going to last season where you've got a guy in ODU's case this year. It is Colton Joseph, who won the starting spot over Grant Wilson last season and really, I mean, really, really impressed. He he was an exceptional passer and was incredibly mobile.
00:06:31
Speaker
um I want to point out that in games where they had to rely on his legs, ah Old Dominion lost. They were one in three in games where he ah amassed more than 300 total yards ah passing and rushing. So unsuccessful when needing to lean on that aspect of his game.
00:06:49
Speaker
But there isn't a ton else around him. um You alluded to the running back room, which is pretty depleted. Their leading returning rusher is Colton Joseph, who had 750 yards on 114 carries.
00:07:02
Speaker
ah The only returning running back with any touches last year was Devin Roche, 283 on 43. That's incredibly efficient, 6'4 per carry, um but he's yet to actually see any real volume, and that concerns me.
00:07:17
Speaker
The other side of the offensive weapon question is the receiving room. and ah Again, I said this to you before the show. If you go on Old Dominion's roster, click on every name that says wide receiver, and you sum up their career FBS receiving yards.
00:07:36
Speaker
I got 18.
00:07:39
Speaker
I may have missed a guy. but it's certainly not too much higher. We're looking at one, two, three, four, five, six, seven of their leading receivers from last season.
00:07:51
Speaker
ah All now, not with the team. Roche is their leading returning receiver who had seven catches for 52. um They added some weapons from JUCO.
00:08:02
Speaker
ah Titus Myers came from, i think, Iowa Western, maybe. He led Division I JUCO schools last year, 888 receiving yards. ah Trey Brown, another JUCO guy, had a pretty solid JUCO career at Georgia Military.
00:08:15
Speaker
um So they added guys that have... some sort of pedigree that could be weapons for Colton Joseph, but it's so difficult to predict and anticipate how that's going to, you know, how that's going to translate.
00:08:30
Speaker
um Because FCS to FBS is one thing. D2 to D1 is something. Juco up, it I mean, that's a really big leap. And they're they're going to have a really tough, tough situation there.
00:08:43
Speaker
You know, going back to what you said about connecting Old Dominion with like Arkansas State, I think Colton Joseph would chew his pinky off on his non-throwing hand to throw out to Corey Rucker.
00:08:56
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, he's not had anybody on that level, like even close. And again, this goes back to the, they never have a roster that is all put together and ready to compete at the same time.
00:09:11
Speaker
Like you'll have a year where you don't have a quarterback, but guess what? You have Blake Watson at running back. You have Ollie Jennings, the third at receiver, no one to throw them the football last year.
00:09:22
Speaker
you kind of did a a mini version of what Marshall did where you stumble upon a quarterback that can really play because Grant Wilson coming into last season was the starter. And I think he played, what, two games before he got injured?
00:09:36
Speaker
um And so they they brought Colton Joseph in as a true freshman out of necessity, not saying, hey, we've identified this guy who's like a Grayson McCall at coastal level thing where it was like,
00:09:50
Speaker
they knew he was the starter like early. like There was almost no like misconceptions about, like oh, will he play? like We'll have to see how camp goes. like Everybody knew McCall was going to start. Joseph, again, was like a Braylon Braxton type where it was... We didn't know who he was before the season started. like we We had nothing to to base anything off of.
00:10:10
Speaker
And so, again, we're back to the... who Who's he going to throw to? Is he going to have to, you know, you, you mentioned it, the games that he put up over 300 total yards, they lost probably because he was just having to run around making anything happen offensively because, you know, you talked about it. Okay. Yeah.
00:10:31
Speaker
They lost, what, two of their running backs from last year in Aaron Young and Bryce Duke. Young finished last season with four straight 100-yard games. You lose that.
00:10:44
Speaker
You replace him with Devin Roche, who not only, like you said, was efficient, But my concern is that he does his body does not hold up over the course of an entire season with a full workload because he's 5'7", 180.
00:11:00
Speaker
And that, frankly, even at the college G5 level, you're going to get into some injury issues when you're that small as a primary rusher. You know, it's it's really hard to throw somebody that size out there and say, Hey, you're going to have to go get us four yards between the tackles.
00:11:15
Speaker
Like, you know, we, Matt and I talked about how, how big ULM's defensive line is. a You know, those are the types of guys you're running into on a down after down after down basis.
00:11:27
Speaker
And Can he can he hold up over the course of the season? We'll have to see. But frankly, the the track record of guys that size trying to hold up over a 1213 game season are not great.
00:11:39
Speaker
So do you have anybody that you expect to produce that's not named Colton Joseph ah as a as a player that's going to amass stats? like Like I said, ah Titus Myers is the only one um just because he's done it before. He's been a high-volume guy, ah and when you're in a receiving room like this one,
00:12:05
Speaker
you kind of have to by necessity be a high volume guy. um so I think his experience of being a top choice target and being, um, really without a question, the best receiver in a room will, you know, that, that means something to some degree, but,
00:12:23
Speaker
ah I think this is going to be, ah until we get to conference play, it's going to be really tough to really get a great read on what these weapons like. I'm fairly pessimistic on them, ah but you know surely there's a guy or two that will surprise us.
00:12:36
Speaker
Someone's going to have to lead the team in rushing. It might be Colton Joseph again. It might be Colton Joseph, but someone's going to have to. um So there's there's just names that until, because this is such a young team that didn't bring in experienced transfers, but brought in JUCO guys or brought in guys that were ah you know third string last year here or elsewhere.
00:12:58
Speaker
um We're not going to know until we like actually see them getting game time reps. So just to throw out another name, because again, this is the part where we usually talk about returning production. And frankly, they don't have any.
00:13:11
Speaker
Another name that might produce eventually might break through the depth chart is Dallas Sims, who is a 205 pound receiver that redshirted last year at Minnesota and transferred in.
00:13:22
Speaker
So maybe he becomes something and and kind of takes is takes a spot among the receiver's lot, Thomas Gladding. ah Their receiving core is in such dire straits that they have two running back converts playing receiver for depth purposes.
00:13:41
Speaker
So that should let you know like where they're at, that they don't even have enough guys to fill out a full complement receiving room and are having to convert guys from other positions just to have enough receivers on the the roster and hope somebody breaks out.
00:13:56
Speaker
And frankly, this, you know, potpourri approach of like, just stick your hand in the bag and pull somebody out and hope that they, that it works. Like, it hasn't worked a lot of times.
00:14:09
Speaker
Usually there are guys that get brought in slowly. They play little bits of time when they're younger and then they progress over time. You usually don't get these guys that go from, oh I don't, I've never recorded a college stat to, Oh, I'm a thousand yard, you know, 60 catch receiver for this team. So like,
00:14:30
Speaker
I truly don't really understand what the deal is with the recruiting for Old Dominion. like It seems like they they bring in like one impact recruit per year, maybe. And other teams will have... like five guys you know early on, whether it be sophomore or freshman year, that contribute in spurts.
00:14:54
Speaker
And then the playing time kind of ramps up. They seem like they bring in one guy per year who sees a little bit of playing time. And you know you you got a rabbit's foot last year with Colton Joseph being the guy as a freshman.
00:15:07
Speaker
But I mean, I don't know how much more we can pound this drum, but they just don't they don't have anybody else. And they somebody's got to break out. Somebody else got to do something. And that that's going to be exacerbated by their struggles up front. There were a lot of times last year where Colton Joseph or Grant Wilson were getting sacked three, four, five times a game.
00:15:27
Speaker
ah with grant In Grant Wilson's case, that what you know could have been a case of ah poor decision-making, holding onto the ball too long. And in Colton Joseph's case, that can be a matter of trying to improvise when he didn't need to.
00:15:41
Speaker
ah You kind of get both ends of those spectrums possibly coming into play. um But, I mean, we're looking at in their first four games of the season, all non-conference, at least four sacks a game in each of those games.
00:15:52
Speaker
ah Held up well against, you know, admittedly pretty weak pass rushes, Georgia State, Texas State. um When you get against ah some of the better pass rushers, though, at State James Madison last year, five sacks allowed in each of those games.
00:16:06
Speaker
And they didn't do a ton to really restock that room. Uh, granted, you know, it's not the worst thing when ah all those guys that are allowing 36 sacks over the course of the season, are gone.
00:16:18
Speaker
because they allowed 36 sacks over the course of the season. But i think they've or I don't think. I know for fact. They've got a tackle that was 13 all-conference last year. They brought in a center who who's been starting several years at Fordham.
00:16:32
Speaker
So they brought in a couple of guys, but you're starting from such a low base level that that is only going to exacerbate how apparently dry the the weapons room is with this offense.
00:16:45
Speaker
Yeah, so at the at the very least, hopefully they can give him time to throw. Who he's throwing to is a totally other conversation that we just had. But, you know, frankly, we hope that they can at least keep him upright long enough to where he's not running for his life or feeling pressure where there really is none because he's so used to being like, oh, three seconds, I got to get out of the pocket because something's going to happen.
00:17:08
Speaker
Yeah. You mentioned it, the offensive line, ah they return, I believe it's three starters from last season's team.
Offensive Line and Defensive Overview
00:17:17
Speaker
um It's ah Left tackle, Zachary Barlev, who played, you mentioned, was third team Sunbelt, all Sunbelt.
00:17:28
Speaker
um They are converting their left guard, or sorry, ah a guy that played nine games at right tackle and one at right guard last season in Dubose-Borne to right tackle Stephen Dubose-Borne.
00:17:42
Speaker
ah So he's got some experience at the right tackle spot. you know you You at least hope your bookends are kind of covered. um But then inside is sort of where the uncertainty comes from. So Skylar Grant played five, had five starts at left guard ah last year in returns.
00:18:00
Speaker
He's your third starter. And then, like you said, you talked about Ryan Joyce, the center from Fordham. And then get Connor Drake, who has only appeared in two games over the last two seasons.
00:18:12
Speaker
So, ah again, you hope that the middle of the line is solidified, but it feels like at least that the tackle spots are passable. Um, ah you know,
00:18:25
Speaker
the left tackle spot feels like it's secure, but the rest of the line is sort of a who knows. Um, so that, I mean, that'll be the key. Like we said to keeping Joseph upright, maybe be giving Roche, uh, some, some running room, uh, cause they need as much time as they can get back there with this receiving court. There's not guys that, you know, can take, you know, win on a slant route definitively. So it's going to be tough.
00:18:51
Speaker
So should we go ahead and transition then to the sorry, I got a fly in here that's bothering me. um Usually my cat kills these things, but it's just been bothering me.
00:19:02
Speaker
um Do you want to go ahead and transition to the defensive side of the ball? Yeah, yeah. I'm a little more optimistic. Phil Steele has them. you know, usually we kind of run down by position, but Phil Steele has them projected as the best linebacking core in the conference. And I feel that's pretty justified. You've got Jason Henderson,
00:19:25
Speaker
who was second team all Sunbelt last year are all American rather last year. um He it has had years where he's been one of the top linebackers in the conference.
00:19:37
Speaker
I'm confused because at one point, Phil Steele says that Henderson played one game last year and then the other, he has them as a second team, all American. So I'm not really sure which one is true.
00:19:48
Speaker
we're We're going to want to make a cut here because he played one game last year and was not an All-American. Okay. I don't know why he listed him as an All-American. but I saw of that as well. He like broke his leg game one okay and was out for all last year. So let's start from the top on the defense. Okay.
00:20:05
Speaker
All right. So usually we when we get into the defensive side of the ball, we kind of run down by position, but they are... expected to have the best linebacking core in the conference. So you get Jason Henderson back from injury from last year.
00:20:19
Speaker
He's had multiple years where he's been an impact player. Zeke, I know that tackles are not your favorite stat, but he is a tackling machine. Um, So at the very least, you have a guy 230 that can stop the run.
00:20:33
Speaker
That seems to be his his forte. ah You got Jaleel Colbreth, who played last year at 11 starts, 62 tackles, seven and a half tackles for a loss. You got another run stuffer there.
00:20:46
Speaker
And then um mario ah Mario Thompson, ah was fourth team Sunbelt last year, six foot 220, projects more as kind of a fluid sideline to sideline type of guy that can do a little bit in coverage.
00:21:01
Speaker
ah He had 88 tackles and four and a half tackles for a loss. So ah the at the very least, the ceiling, you know, for the linebacking core is very, very high. The other defensive positions ah we'll we'll get to, but Talk a little bit about the linebacking core and why they can kind of put a feather in their cap on on this position group.
00:21:21
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, it was a perhaps blessing in disguise for Old Dominion that Jason Henderson did break his leg game one last year ah in that they get to keep him for an extra year.
00:21:32
Speaker
ah You know, that obviously sours any sort of draft or portal potential for a guy that two years ago, I think they clocked him at above 160 tackles. He was a second team All-American nationwide, you know, top six linebacker in the country.
00:21:46
Speaker
um And as you alluded to, I hate tackles, but they do i you know they they do mean something. Something. Not a lot, but something, right? This is a guy that can make tackles and is finding himself in the right spots.
00:21:58
Speaker
ah The Mario and Mario duo there of Mario Thompson, Mario Easterly is pretty impressive. um But ultimately, ah what makes this linebacking core impressive is just having guys back.
00:22:13
Speaker
That's something that you can't say a ton about really any other group on the roster. um So that makes this group really, really impressive to me. I worry about penetration.
00:22:26
Speaker
You get your three leading sackers back from last season. ah Most of those kind of come in from the second level because of how they set up. um Not necessarily traditional edge ah like D-line ah defensive ends, but rather ah you know, second level type rushers.
00:22:41
Speaker
um But the problem with that is getting those guys back. They each only recorded like four and a half, three and a half sacks. And those are your leading sack getters. ah And then as you, instead of looking at the front seven, look at these back four, you're back five.
00:22:55
Speaker
um It was horrific last year. This was probably the worst pass defense in the conference last season. And I've not seen much that makes me think it will ah uptick to any degree.
00:23:08
Speaker
um ah A lot of the guys, kind of like the offensive line, a lot of those guys are gone, and that could be addition by subtraction. But because we're looking at guys that have eight career games, we're looking at guys that have only played, ah you know, made 14 career tackles.
00:23:28
Speaker
ah It's impossible to really gauge. And so this is a call to action for our Old Dominion listeners. Tell us. ah We'll have you on the show. We want we want to understand this team more because ah right now it feels very blank slaty, which is ah recipe for disaster for Ricky Ronnie.
00:23:47
Speaker
ah If you've got just a blank slate and no one to hang your cap on. But for whoever's the next, Hey man, come on in. Uh, we've got no one that you're tied to. Yeah.
00:23:58
Speaker
And, uh, you know, Jason Henderson, we would be remiss obviously to, to say is at least last year, I don't know about this year was the highest rated player in the sunbelt conference on NCAA, uh, 25.
00:24:12
Speaker
Uh, so you've got that going for you, I guess. Um, but, But like you said, the the the secondary it was was not good. ah However, you do bring in, ah ah hope i'm pronouncing this right, Botros Alessandro, a corner from Purdue, who's got who's got some decent size, 185. So hopefully...
00:24:34
Speaker
um You know, he brings his one start 25 or five five starts, 25 tackles over from them. So hopefully he can kind of help as a as a lockdown corner.
00:24:48
Speaker
um You got two safeties in aisles and Carter, who didn't play a ton like our. played but didn't really produce last year and then you've got ah Brandon Crutchfield who played in eight games but only notched five tackles and no other stats so yeah the d the secondary needs to figure it out because frankly you know I think the defensive line is pretty good And, um you know, with and we can go ahead and talk about them.
00:25:17
Speaker
Chris Trinidad, ah defensive end, 6'5", 260, was third team Sunbelt last year, five and a half sacks. You mentioned they didn't exactly have a a Mike Green level sack artist, but, you know, somebody that can produce in a 3-4 is nice. Yeah.
00:25:35
Speaker
You get DeAndre Lynch ah up front. ah He played in nine games last year. you only notched 14 tackles, but that's kind of the function of a nose tackle and a three, four. You're just supposed to eat space. And then ah Ricardo Williams, who played and in 12 games last year, 20 tackles. So,
00:25:52
Speaker
it It feels like the front seven is pretty well equipped. I think you would want another piece on that defensive line um other than Trinidad. ah But linebacking wise and up front, it feels pretty pretty good as far as position wise.
00:26:08
Speaker
But the secondary man, like you mentioned, i don't know if Alessandro is going to come through and just be a revelation for them in the secondary, but... something's got to give if Ricky Ronnie wants to make it to 2026, because this frankly. Yeah. mean, I just,
00:26:23
Speaker
frankly didn yeah i mean i just I remember very distinctly, i don't remember games like you do. You've got an eili encyclopedic knowledge of games from three years ago. and you just but You remember Grayson McCall's 280 passing yard against... No, I don't. I don't remember.
00:26:43
Speaker
But what I do remember ah is actually, Grayson McCall, interesting poll here. ah This team allowed like 340 passing yards to Ethan Vasco.
00:26:55
Speaker
Yeah, that's rough. Who, official opinion of the pod, should not have been starting quarterback. He's bad. He's pretty bad. oh I just, they there were so many holes in that ah defensive back end.
00:27:11
Speaker
I mean, I remember Georgia State exploited that back end as well. i And it's just... It doesn't matter how weak or how much rather you've upgraded that because it looks like the offense is just going to be giving the other team the ball a couple extra times a game, whether it's turnovers or short drives. It's like you really, really need to solidify that if that's going to turn into wins.
00:27:37
Speaker
um And I worry that this may have been too – little um from what we've seen in terms of lack of really solidified, defined production defensively to make up for ah what we're seeing, you know, what weaknesses we're seeing in the offense.
00:28:00
Speaker
One other person I wanted to mention before we we start talking about scheduling and you know what we anticipate the win-loss to be this year. so One person I would be remiss not to mention was Jason Henderson's fill-in, who is now kind of relegated to the bench with with the defensive ah with the linebacker spots filled now, Koa Neotala.
00:28:22
Speaker
Now, Tala, I hope I'm pronouncing one of those correct. He was also second team Sunbelt last year in relief of Henderson. 88 tackles, four and a half tackles for a loss in 11 starts. So...
00:28:38
Speaker
At the very least, if one of Colbreth or Henderson or even Mario Thompson goes down, you've got a very, very, very qualified fill in at that spot. So ah that seems to be the one area where on paper you can look at and go, oh, look, they've got some depth ah other than the quarterback spot. and And this is somebody else we didn't really mention, but Quinn Hennekel.
00:29:02
Speaker
came in and played ah in one game. I believe it was the Arkansas State game that he played last year. um And they upset Arkansas State because, frankly, nobody expected them to win that game without Colton Joseph.
00:29:15
Speaker
But he ran for 278 yards ah and through for a hundred and eighty one So you've got some depth at quarterback. ah You know, if you absolutely need somebody to step in, would be an injury for Joseph. You got Hennicle there and you've got some depth at linebacker on paper, but every everywhere else just kind of feels like they're totally wiping the slate green clean and starting over from scratch. So, I mean, Phil Steele does his, you know, normal, uh,
00:29:47
Speaker
Ricky Ronnie says it's his best team he's ever had at Old Dominion, and I expect them to be better, and they're going to be contenders. Realistically, are they? No, probably not. I don't see it, which brings us to the schedule.
Season Schedule and Predictions
00:30:01
Speaker
You pulled up the win totals ah for Old Dominion. What do the books have them at?
00:30:07
Speaker
The DraftKings Sportsbook has it at over under six and a half wins. And for those who are even moderate gamblers, the over is plus 130, which means nobody is betting the over.
00:30:26
Speaker
The under is minus 165, which basically means like you bet a hundred bucks. I think you win like $35 or something like it's tough. Yeah. it's tough that's That's bad.
00:30:37
Speaker
I would say i went through the schedule.
00:30:50
Speaker
Sweet. Yeah, so ah go ahead and just looking at their schedule. They opened the season at Indiana. um I've got that one down as a pretty easy loss.
00:31:01
Speaker
ah Then you go on the road. You don't think they're going to beat a team that was in the college football playoff last year? Yeah. Then you come come from the road, host NC Central, FCS school. I've got that one down as a win.
00:31:14
Speaker
ah You go travel to Virginia Tech, who's been pretty wily in the past couple years. I think I've got Virginia Tech winning in that one fairly simply. ah Week four is when they take their bye before hosting Liberty on September 27th.
00:31:30
Speaker
um Perhaps an anti-Liberty bias, but I think that's... Do you know who Liberty's quarterback is? Is it Grant Wilson? It's Ethan Vasco.
00:31:41
Speaker
Whoa!
00:31:45
Speaker
Unfortunately, ah Ethan Vasco beat them once. I think Ethan Vasco beats him again. ah So I've got them starting this non-conference one and four. Then you start ah after playing Ethan Vasco. You host Coastal Carolina, his former school.
00:32:00
Speaker
um Coastal coming off of a bye that week. That's October 4th. I think Coastal takes that one. you go see i I think Coastal and Marshall are both wins for them.
00:32:11
Speaker
I've got Marshall as a win at Marshall ah the following week. We've talked about Marshall. Not yet, actually. We haven't talked about Marshall. ah We've talked about Marshall 2.0, that being Southern Miss, but we've not actually talked about ah the real thundering herd.
00:32:26
Speaker
um So then you get to the midway point. You travel to James Madison. That's a pretty easy loss. Your homecoming game is versus App State.
00:32:37
Speaker
ah That one feels a little more toss-up-y. ah App kind of has Old Dominion's number, though, historically speaking. ah You go to at ULM, which I think that's a win there.
00:32:48
Speaker
ah Then you take your second buy, November 8th. That's in week... What is that? 13, maybe ah November 8th. ah That also feels like a toss up. I'll give that one to Troy tentatively.
00:33:02
Speaker
um And then you go at Georgia Southern. I think Georgia Southern takes that one and then host Georgia State for the season finale on November 29th. I've got four wins there.
00:33:14
Speaker
I really don't see much more.
00:33:18
Speaker
So here are the games that I think they can win on paper. NC Central, obviously. So that's one. um I think they can beat Liberty.
00:33:29
Speaker
I'm going to be honest. Now, listen... i think i think the ah ah now listen i don't i don't cover I don't cover Liberty. I don't know anything about him. I know Vasco transferred there after he left Coastal, so he might lose the job before the start this start of the season.
00:33:45
Speaker
But like I know Vasco is there. He's on the roster, and he was the guy that transferred in when Caden Salter transferred to Colorado. So if if Vasco starts, I've got Liberty in that one.
00:33:58
Speaker
I don't care what kind of voodoo magic Jamie Chadwell does. Like... Nothing is going to make Vasco a quality quarterback all of a sudden. um Okay, so i think I think Liberty, Coastal, and Marshall are all winnable.
00:34:12
Speaker
I think that would put you at four. um you probably lose You're going to lose at James Madison. that's That's a given, feels like. App, I feel like we are just kind of approaching approaching as if they are a Scott Satterfield, Eli Drinkwitz, Sean Clark team.
00:34:30
Speaker
And I feel like we're putting the cart in front of the horse a little bit. I'm not saying it's an automatic win for App, but they play App at home. So I think that they're... I know we had Aikman on.
00:34:46
Speaker
I think there's a real chance that App is like... a four five win team this year while they try to figure everything out. They they are really retooling an entire roster the same way that like Marshall is.
00:34:58
Speaker
So that we've seen that go. Okay. And we've seen it go really, really poorly. And I just don't know. um So that's potential win number five there.
00:35:11
Speaker
i think ULM is going to be a win as long as they know how to slow down the running game. Because frankly, ULM doesn't have a quarterback or anybody that catches passes that really scares you.
00:35:22
Speaker
um Troy with the goose crowder kill crease experience. i I mean, i think seven is in the in reach when you add Georgia State in the finale.
00:35:36
Speaker
However, i would still bet the under because all they have to do is slip up in one of these and then you're you're out of money. So I'm going to tentatively say under. I think they win six.
00:35:51
Speaker
Sure. but But they're going to drop one of these games that I've listed. Yeah, that Liberty Coastal Marshall, you called those all winnable, and they absolutely are, but there's just no world where they win all three of those.
00:36:02
Speaker
um
00:36:05
Speaker
that's just too I think it's too early to say they absolutely can't, but the odds are not in their favor for all of their really, really winnable games to be in a three-week stretch back-to-back. That feels like there's a loss sandwiched in there somewhere.
00:36:20
Speaker
Sure. So I've got them at four, four and a half, five wins, ah which in my eyes is enough to can Ricky Ronnie. If they win six, seven games, make a bowl game, what do they what do they do with them?
00:36:35
Speaker
ah If you win six games, I think you have to get rid of them. I think anything less than seven is is is time for walking papers. Because how many more years are you going to roll the dice on?
00:36:49
Speaker
No, Colton Joseph's fine with just throwing to guys that are future Enterprise Rent-A-Car employees. Like, he loves it. It's like... Okay. But if a team with like serious and n NIL money comes calling and it's like, Hey, we've seen you and we've got some guys that can actually catch the ball and make plays.
00:37:09
Speaker
how How many more years does he have in Norfolk with, with like, I'm not saying that they're going to be exactly like last year, but if they turn in an effort like last year, how many more years you would you as a quarterback be cool with this when there are probably schools out there with and NIL money that are like, hey, we've got people to throw to that can actually catch the football.
00:37:29
Speaker
Do you want to come play here? So Ricky Ronnie, his deal expires after next season. um That seems like an easy cut. Yeah, yeah that that does feel that'll be ah probably a relatively easy buyout.
00:37:43
Speaker
um I mean, if that came as an extension after 2022 when they made a bowl game. um So, yeah. crazy how It's crazy how low expectations are there.
00:37:57
Speaker
Like, I feel like even Georgia State, if they had turned, if if Sean Elliott, or hell, you could say Del McGee now, if Del McGee turns in these results year after year at Georgia State, he's out.
00:38:12
Speaker
It almost doesn't matter. like it It's weird. ULM, I feel like, would probably be the same way. like Whatever school you want to list and say, oh, this school doesn't really care about results, they would expect more out of their head coach than what Ricky Ronnie has given Old Dominion in ah in the five years that he's coached there.
00:38:30
Speaker
ah I don't know. base Based on performance, Ricky Ronnie is a guy that... this is based solely on his performance at old dominion and is not a guy that can out punt his coverage as an exceptional head coach.
00:38:44
Speaker
He can win what is expected of him. um you know, I, who Who knows how it translates, but like if he's at ah you know ah even an SEC team that's projected for eight wins, he'll probably turn it into a seven-win season and be good enough to keep his job, right?
00:39:00
Speaker
But this is not a guy that at this level of football, you need someone that is going to get hired away from you in order to have long-term or even short-term success. Yeah.
00:39:12
Speaker
Who knows if Old Dominion even cares about that? um that There's a great chance that they don't. And if not, who cares? um Which is, again, call to action. Old Dominion folks, let us know.
00:39:24
Speaker
um Because this team, this program, I think more than any other, is an enigma
Review of Coach Ricky Ronnie's Performance
00:39:30
Speaker
to me. ah in total It's totally baffling. I don't understand it.
00:39:35
Speaker
Because this this is mediocrity that, like, you draw drew the Georgia State comparison where they were never gunning for a Sunbelt title game. they You know, they they were there were couple weeks where they were like, hey, looking pretty good.
00:39:48
Speaker
But yeah at the very least, they were contending for bowl games, right? They they were consistently making bowl games. Ronnie's gone there twice in four years, and the years he's not made it, they were not looking good.
00:40:00
Speaker
um No. So, yeah. i what's the plan? what What is the plan here? The Grant Wilson, ah what was the other guy? Wolf, like all of those guys before Joseph have not shown the ability to play college football.
00:40:18
Speaker
So it feels really weird to kind of hang your hat on that um as, hey, he finally identified a quarterback. It feels like he he just kept turning over rocks and eventually one was there.
00:40:30
Speaker
um while we When we wrap up, let me read this this stat from last year. Tell me if there's a more 6-6 team in the country that you've heard of. okay Offensively, they scored 28 points per game.
00:40:42
Speaker
They allowed 28 points per game. On offense, they had 403 yards per game of offense. On defense, they allowed 410.
00:40:54
Speaker
Is there a i mean, as Thanos says, equally balanced, perfectly balanced is all things should be. Like there's not a more six and six team out there than the, than the 2024 old dominion monarchs.
00:41:07
Speaker
I wonder, I'll find this out and we'll tweet it out with this episode. I wonder if there is a smaller yards allowed to yards ah gained differential. It's seven per game.
00:41:21
Speaker
that's That's crazy, right? That's all is that almost impossible do. that's almost impossible to do
00:41:30
Speaker
That's wild. That's actually crazy. They literally 28.01 offense, 28.0 on defense, not a digit out of place. And then and the offense and defense are seven yards per game apart.
00:41:46
Speaker
And despite this, they still managed to go under 500. Well, they lost the bowl game in overtime to Western Kentucky, which shouldn't have been in in the first place.
00:42:00
Speaker
Yeah. So I don't know. and they weren't Weren't they one of the ones that had to cover? Brian, I'm not certain they played in a bowl game last year, buddy.
00:42:13
Speaker
Oh, that was 2023. Sorry. My mistake. 2023. So they didn't make a bowl game ah with a guy that we, at least I feel this way. Tell me if you feel this way.
00:42:24
Speaker
Is Colton Joseph a top three quarterback in the conference for you? I think he is for me. Last year, probably. It's him and Braylon Braxton. Who else would be there?
00:42:37
Speaker
Alonzo Barnett, maybe? Jalen Rayner has a shout. Yeah, but you don't like him, right? I don't. ah so You're the last person that should be going to bat for him.
00:42:49
Speaker
ja Again, I'm not like super, super high, but JC French is apparently in that conversation. No. no He's got to be. He might be in the conversation. He's not better than Colton Joseph.
00:43:02
Speaker
No. I'll go ahead and tell you that. He i think he brings, like, nothing with his legs. Like, nothing. If it goes according to plan, I think Colton Joseph probably... I don't want to plant my flag on this like I have with other things in the past, ah but I am... Like...
00:43:21
Speaker
He's got a great, I mean, he's probably first or second team Sunbelt player of the year or ah all conference rather. um Has an argument, you know, if he puts up the numbers that he did last year in terms of going both ways, could be offensive player of the year.
00:43:38
Speaker
um Just by the way, he he does it both ways. um I guess it comes down to how much do you, Matt, you know, how much does winning matter to you in that conversation?
00:43:50
Speaker
Well, i think I think he's the second best quarterback in the conference. Like, if you took him put him on a team that was the level of a Louisiana, ah James Madison, I feel like we would be looking at like a ah Jordan McLeod level player.
00:44:08
Speaker
But because because he plays on this team where it's like what you said, okay, how much does winning matter? It would matter more if the team was semi-competitive. But Ronnie almost seems like he's gone out of his way to not put a competitive roster on the field around him.
00:44:24
Speaker
Like it almost feels like it's intentional. is there any worry or concern, big picture wise, out of Colton Joseph about like Now that people are aware that this is a real guy,
00:44:39
Speaker
um that that those numbers kind of go down. like We look at Jordan McLeod, who had an exceptional year at James Madison, and then granted, again, his environment was probably reduced when he transferred over to Texas State.
00:44:52
Speaker
but was pretty middling there. Is there any world where that kind of thing happens, especially, again, without any real proven talent around him offensively?
00:45:07
Speaker
Well, I mean, definitely. but i mean, there's yeah there's a world where you defenses just play three, four and drop eight guys into coverage and just play zone the whole time and are like, go ahead and run. We've got every blade of grass covered because we know you guys don't have a running back that makes a difference that can make us pay.
00:45:28
Speaker
So on so you know we're just we have one guy whose dedicated job is just to spy Colton Joseph in case he decides to run. And we're not we're not working our rushers up the field. We're kind of just playing contain.
00:45:41
Speaker
i mean, yeah, there's definitely a world where where that happens. Now, you're also banking on Colton Joseph not um progressing as a passer. Sure. I mean, I know receiving weapons aside, there's nothing we can do about that. Like what what's done is done at this, at this stage of the season, but yeah we're also banking on him, not progressing as a passer and being able to kind of up his completion percentage, be a little bit more clean with decision-making, although he was pretty good with it last year.
00:46:10
Speaker
um Yeah, man, i I just feel bad for him. Like, I understand what you said about McLeod, but now with the benefit of hindsight, McLeod went with from playing with P5 guys that were in the college football playoff at James Madison to Texas State.
00:46:25
Speaker
And Texas State was a good offense last year, but they weren't Indiana's offense from last year. Like, there was a level down. So, I mean, again, I almost feel bad for the guy, ah Joseph, but also he just chose to stuck around. So...
00:46:40
Speaker
it's not like he didn't know what was, what he was in for coming into the season, but ah Zeke, any last minute thoughts while
Podcast Conclusion and Listener Engagement
00:46:46
Speaker
we wrap up here? And if not, go ahead and tell folks where they can find you on socials. Yeah. ah Nothing else to really say. you could find me at Zeke Palermo, Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O. You can also find the show on Twitter at warm weather fans, just as you see it on the screen. ah Shoot us an email to warm weather fans at gmail.com. We want to hear from you guys. Um,
00:47:09
Speaker
As I said, Old Dominion fans especially, please solve this puzzle for us. um But any you know we've we've had Aikman on the show, who's our App State guy. ah We had Bryson Broadway on last year, all-conference offensive lineman, and he gave us some really good insight to Georgia Southern. We want to develop more relationships with folks of fan bases outside of our Georgia State, Georgia Southern, and then when he's here, Matt's Louisiana. um So please hit us up. We want to hear from you.
00:47:37
Speaker
Brian, just send us home, man. Yeah, as always, you can find me on socials at WatchTheStone. ah We will be back later this week to go over the South Alabama Jaguars football team.
00:47:50
Speaker
This has been another edition of Warm Weather Fans.